JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Here’s a nice story to start the thread:
Waitress to Give Portion of $1,800 Tip to Australia Bushfire Relief
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/01/10/waitress-to-give-portion-of-1800-tip-to-australia-bushfire-relief/
90
Say Bye Bye Trees: Climate Scientists Finally Claim We Passed a “Tipping Point”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/11/say-bye-bye-trees-climate-scientists-finally-claim-we-passed-a-tipping-point/
60
Unfortunately the original alarmist piece is long, while the WUWT reply is short and dismissive. A more detailed rebuttal is called for.
Greenpeace is sending out a fundraising letter saying pretty much the same thing — the forests will never recover. No science, just unsupported speculation. The new polar bear.
240
Do pay attention David, its koala bears in Australia not polar bears.easy mistake to make, they are very similar sizes and hang around in trees
91
Oh behave…..
61
Koalas aint bears.
70
It would be great news if the forests never recovered.
At the moment the forests are a Natural History Museum honouring a totally Mythical Past where the
inhabitants lived in unison with, and were the Stewards of, Nature.
84
And in another 10 years there’ll be a mighty conflagration unless something is done to control the fuel load in the meantime.
61
Sorry, this was a reply to the wrong comment. It’s meant to be a reply to AndyG55’s comment below.
00
Well I’ll reply here.
It’ll take more than ten years.
I think it was 1998, correct me if I’m wrong, that lightning lit a fire in a wild area of the Goulburn River National Park south west of Merriwa. The NPWS flew helicopters in for a week, but didn’t extinguish it. Then one day a big wind blew and it went many miles, burning both National Park and farmland.
After that the NPWS did a fair bit of prescribed burning in the NP. That would be nearly 20 years ago.
The “Mead’s Creek West” fire recently was started by lightning just a few km west of the same location. More accessible, so it’s easy for an old bloke to say they should have extinguished it the first night by sending bulldozers and ground crews around it. But it was’t extinguished, and was in the play for quite some time.
Watching from a distance it seemed to me that that fire was doing much less damage than the previous one, probably because it had been burnt twenty odd years before.
I think it likely that the NPWS will be able to produce some very interesting data from those fires for the scientists to pore over.
30
If the forests did not recover, they would be unique.
51
As in
“We were never the same again. Mind you we were never the same before but we were never the same again”
Spike Milligan
describing forests too?
40
I could listen to Spike describing almost anything…
10
They will start recovering as soon as it rains.
The fauna have a bigger problem.
40
And specifically in critical catchments like the Warragamba* , if it gets bad enough, it could take 5 years before the veg stabilises & inflows stabilize within the recharge normally expected.
Warragamba provides 75% of the water to ~~1/6th of the population & 1/5th of the economy.
* World Heritage Listed / National Parks managed.
The people will one day have a bigger problem too.
50
Foresets always recover otherwise there would have been NO forests after the Chixilub impactor 65 mill years BP. Recovery time is dependent on the number of zeros after a 1 in the time scale 😉
10
Interesting, where I am on the New South Wales Mid North Coast there were many bushfires for many weeks at the start of the Bushfire Season late 2019, and now green leaves appearing and grasses and ferns on the ground.
The Australian Bush has survived bushfires and controlled burns since about 130,000 years ago this climate zone gradually became drier and the rainforests (now just 3 per cent of forests here) were replaced by vegetation that survives most droughts, heatwaves, bushfires and flooding rains that is Australia.
Of course the wildfires this season, because of the drought, dry and hot weather conditions but importantly too much tangled undergrowth and fallen branches and leaves due to land management neglect, were infernos that killed an enormous amount of wildlife and too many people.
Greenpeace please consider, and also consider United Nations Agenda 30 (was Agenda 21) – Sustainability: The National Parks being preserved for future generations they claimed and now containing vegetation that will take a very long time to recover or be replaced.
100
Life is very hard to kill !
Here is evidence
Photos of the bush growing after the fires on NSW North coast:
https://www.facebook.com/MurrayLowePhotography/?__tn__=kC-R&eid=ARArvbz_8bju4hoCiNQuXxES5QjYpaBHBTBLD3Ct2CD5ibeGPo9B3OAWwnrmoqINuFiHCLggNxiKDwzC&hc_ref=ARRqZ87S8Be98ZDtPy-ImopUDLTaQB7Ruxn-_lBdsrZxvzS5cCsOxApjVDWE9yC6_Q4&fref=nf&__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARCypmJ33FnyIJ48dfXAhw0jivGSYKMap7R_F2kOcy_0GQeDIgwsaoh-2QvJ9N7z8wDJZSQxLW3t31QYHkcnEvd3ZoVpw741wPgGQ_vUeoqrjs5tP74IOTQg-ujta7H2T2C6hzk8AyY8PGnOWY_B_HbF8sBO3XQaVXAr1oCZHQ0ADg4N7RaB0N_Q6l-vq4sckr1xAMVhgIcpwhhpirM8iymeQAfKriQBL5yKSVjo1SdqE41fF-lG-Pk2Pd1_fj0jhXUosc4dV1Au7IIPdYw2LyzMM5X4fGNdpf1ZRqm3z8H2y91FLU21ZWuNPefaywpPoZBrNjQssQjjsqExud3HP5-1nA
50
And in a couple of weeks the Eucys will be sprouting down their trunks. 🙂
40
Dennis…
To say that an ecosystem “recovers” merely because something is green and growing, isn’t exactly correct.
Hell, we could say the same if we logged it, ploughed it, and sowed it with introduced weeds.
Something will always grow eventually, but the loss of soil through erosion will take millennia to replace while the species mix may change in ways that would not occur naturally.
It’s a question that we should be asking more… exactly what ARE we trying to preserve in our National parks?
Currently, it isn’t what was here in 1788, or at any time before that.
50
Peter W –
What you say is quite perceptive, but can I go a bit more fundamental…
It is a great mistake to think of the wild places as an unchanging natural Eden. Most of us have the germ of this idea that all is well until man comes along and mucks about with it. Just seems obvious, doesn’t it? Even if those of us with some understanding of the environment know that it isn’t quite true..
Most of our wilderness is in a state of continual change. Species are constantly evolving, or going extinct. Landscapes change, ground cover alters, fauna migrates and colonises. Sure, there are ecosystems at all levels which are more stable than others, and elements of those systems are more vulnerable to damage because they have ‘settled down’ and the species within them have flourished in the unchanged conditions- they will have lost much of their genetic diversity and are no longer constantly adapting and dispersing. We should call these places museums. And if we want to preserve them for our own interest or enjoyment, that’s fine.
But that doesn’t go for most of the Australian bush, where fire has been the defining characteristic of the landscape for, at least, hundreds of thousands of years. In the face of this overwhelming reality, man’s efforts to effect changes are going to be rather puny. If he wants forests, he’s gonna have to live with the consequences, and adapt to them. This realisation has been sorely lacking the last few decades, and it seems constant, tragic reminders are necessary.
Now the philosophical question. Man’s actions are just one more environmental influence that the world has to ‘cope with’ or ‘recover from’, but there are an awful lot of us and we have changed the face of an awful lot of the world. We now have the power to do so. But are those changes a bad thing? Don’t we want to shape the world so that it is more comfortable for us, for our health, for our longevity, for our pleasure? Or, as is apparently implicit at the very core of the green message, does an (unchanging?) natural world trump human ambitions, and are current humans merely the custodian of a wonderful place to keep pristine for our future generations, and for future species? I submit that this aspect of the ‘green theme’ is actually preposterous, and does not bear serious examination. But as it is a theme that so many hold dear, I’d love to see it properly defended..
110
Only fires started by aborigines don’t result in a loss of soil.
10
A few drops of rain, and in a couple of weeks there will be green shoots everywhere. !
Just like after every other of Australia’s previous millions of bush fires.
232
….fire is a most auspicious opportunity to wave the magic weed wand upon any feral green shoots like blackberry, lantana, and other.
Certainly, Xanthorrhoea trunks stay underground in southern parts of Australia and above ground level in the hotter localities where the gum trees are shorter and fires are not as hot. An exposed trunk of Xanthorrhoea (grass tree) in more arid conditions Xanthorrhoea need not protect the trunk from high intensity hot fires by putting more energy into growing closer to the ground, or under it as is the case with Xanthorrhoea minor where fires can burn hotter. Just a theory based on observation of grass trees.
https://alchetron.com/Xanthorrhoea-minor
81
I still call them Black Boys. This is the name given to this plant from more or less the beginning of the settlement in the Swan River Colony.
Black Boy Hill is the location of the recruit training base in the First World War. Calling them Black Boys also triggers the Left and the Culural marxists.
161
I still call blackberries blackberries as well, except when I use stronger language.
00
That’s right, and that’s the longer term problem.
These forest have evolved to burn,
Eucalypt Species are extremely r-selected *
At the very least, these forests need to be thinned and culled to a point where Fuel Reduction
strategies are doable politically, or:
Remove the species entirely and plant deciduous European trees.
Everything else is just kicking the can down the road.
*http://www.bio.miami.edu/tom/courses/bil160/bil160goods/16_rKselection.html
30
Mmmmm decidous European trees, they will do so well in our climate. Thats why Spain and Greece are just covered with them. Fair enough approach but only for niche areas.
11
Andy….
I’ve been in severely burnt country.
Even three years afterwards, there were no native mammals and the birds were only just starting to come Bavaria in limited numbers.
All the mature timber was dead.
It’s not as simple as “Hey, green shoots”.
There are green shoots in my paddock, Doesn’t make it healthy bush.
30
So have I, first green comes quickly, Black Boys etc then the Eucys..
it takes a while, sure, but a few year down the track you won’t know the place.
Of course animals will take longer to appear, especially with the huge area of National Parks and State Forests devastated.
See the Kingsmead video at 2.3, it was a high intensity burn too. !
30
A video from the WUWT link
https://youtu.be/b2sIam8qpcQ
41
Jokers.
‘ … some post-fire forest landscapes will shift to brush or grassland.’
In a warmer world that is unlikely, but of course global cooling will turn forests into grassland.
50
Tipping point?
Yes…the climate hysteria “tipping point” has finally jumped the shark….no one takes them seriously. All trees at risk from heat stress? These people are a special class of dimwits….
It will all regrow. In canberra with the 2003 bushfires they used it as an excuse to get rid of a pine plantation and replace it with an arboretum. Pine is rubbish to build with anyway….give me hardwood any day….
But I digress…many trees will survive, the fire risk undergrowth is gone ( safe for another 10 years ) and the fire has done the job the greenist authorities should have done…..
110
My fresh opinion on bushfires after spending the night alone with one…
We are growing accelerant. Let an old paddock regrow and what covers it in my part of the world is blady grass, whisky grass and bracken. The blady especially is napalm.
Once there has been regrowth, the accelerant is more leaf litter and dead grass, with less surface exposure than blady alone. It’s slower napalm.
With restoration of the forest cover you have everything: accelerant and hard fuel. The forest may slow the wind but a spring westerly or summer nor’easter will more than bust through with all the oxygen needed. With thirty years of hard fuel build-up, guess what happens.
I was extremely lucky. The forestry land next to mine spotted just before the wind dropped near night. By the time it was all ablaze it could not move quickly. A few hours earlier, with the nor’easter behind it, and it would have been curtains. By sheer chance it’s been a perfect burn-off, though not for some of the wildlife that’s adapted only to cool burns. I should add that even with the favourable weather conditions and all kinds of cavalry yestereday, there was extreme hazard.
Keep the paddocks and slash/graze, or grow bush and do hazard reduction. But stop growing accelerant. It can only end one way.
160
Glad to hear you are ok Moso.
60
Glad to hear you and your place survived. Have you seen any increased feral activity with the fires Moso? Have all the pests been driven out of the SF onto your place?
Speaking of Blady Grass, around here Blady Grass and feral pigs go together like rabbits and lantana.
When it rains you’ll have luxuriant Blady Grass up and away in no time from its rhizomatous root system — just the way the feral pigs love to eat it.
Our feral pig population is a ticking time bomb if African Swine Fever gets amongst it. It’s in Timor Leste already and expected in PNG any tick of the clock.
“Over the past six months [as at December], Australian authorities have seized 32 tonnes of pork products from passenger bags and mailed packages.”
“Of that, 49% had fragments of African swine fever,” said Margo Andrae, chief executive of Australian Pork Limited, an industry body.
The virus is particularly robust, and is able to survive for seven days without a host, and for months in frozen pork products.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/fears-rise-as-deadly-pig-virus-spreads-across-asia/ar-BBY96J7?ocid=spartandhp
30
“Carbon Sequestration”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/10/carbon-sequestration/
00
ICYMI:
2015 and the BOM report is out.
>> Now there is black and white admission that the BOM “adjusted” temp dataset cannot be replicated independently, has not been replicated by any other group, and that the BOM will not provide enough info for anyone who wants to try …
This is the first annual report containing the findings and recommendations of the Technical Advisory Forum on the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network—Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) dataset.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf
The quotes:
page ix:
The Forum considers that its recommendations will deliver improvements to the management and communication of the ACORN-SAT dataset.
It is not currently possible to determine whether the improvements recommended by the Forum will result in an increased or decreased warming trend as reflected in the ACORN-SAT dataset.
It is important to note that the Forum has a duration of three years.
All five recommendations made by the Forum should be addressed by the Bureau over the three year period.
However, the issues that should be given highest priority are marked with one or two asterisks.
Those with two asterisks are the most important. Further recommendations may be made at future Forum meetings. Obviously addressing these recommendations will require resourcing and the Forum recognises that the Bureau’s ability to address them will be subject to resource availability.
page xiii:
The Forum notes that the Bureau is recognised internationally for its expertise in methodological approaches to homogenisation.
The Forum has made five recommendations to support and inform the Bureau’s approach to continuously improve the ACORN-SAT dataset.
Each of the five recommendations is grouped thematically and contains a number of sub-elements.
The recommendations predominantly address two key aspects of ACORN-SAT, namely:
* a) improving the clarity and accessibility of information provision—in particular, explaining the uncertainty that is inherent to both raw and homogenised datasets, and
* b) refining some of the Bureau’s data handling and statistical methods through appropriate statistical standardisation procedures, sensitivity analyses, and alternative data fitting approaches.
91
It’s worth reading the 2017 TAF report. Not sure is there was a 2016 report. In the final 2017 report, TAF again said that it was desirable for the BOM to release their homogenisation methodology, and of course the BOM never did. Also in these reports, there was an interesting discussion about the homogenisation process, where the TAF panel had to call in BOM staff to verbally explain the process. I believe that this indicates the process is not fully documented and relies on human intervention, where that intervention process doesn’t follow any rules or procedures.
90
Dodgy stuff.
60
There was a 2016 TAF report.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2016_TAF_report.pdf
I couldn’t bring myself to read any of the reports all the way through, because it was clear that the Forum was just a snow job from beginning to end. A very successful snow job it was too. There was no attempt to clarify the BOM’s homogenisation process.
I am a bit surprised that none of the forum members resigned before completing the whole 3 year process. Perhaps they knew full well what was expected from the start.
60
From my limited outdider’s viewpoint, I don’t believe the Forum was a snow job. I would suggest that they had a limited scope and the structure of the Forum appears to suggest that they were only there to investigate the statistical approach and associated code. That’s OK, but it’s only part of the entire homogenisation process. I strongly believe that all government organisations must follow defined and structured processes, and it seems clear that the BOM have decided to do their own thing and don’t believe they have any responsibility to the public.
10
They’d better get used to it. As Victoristan move to wholesome renewables in totality, as well as electric cars etc, very few will be visiting anyone outside the metropolitan area.
These holiday places will have to return to what Walhalla was just a decade or so ago, still running on generators that switched off a 10pm (the last town in Victoristan to get mains electricity). And no one will be towing their caravans, boats, horse floats etc any great distance with electric cars.
Tourist areas had better get used to becoming ghost towns if Victoristan goes the way Andrews intends. And given the rate at which this is likely to happen and that idiots keep voting him in, it will be very difficult to turn back.
280
Look on the bright side. In just a few years nearly all of us will be living in Smart Cities and we’ll be enjoying our access to “Virtual Victoria”, (that is, if our social credit score isn’t too low).
.
131
As smart as the politicians we elect.
60
Ah, you mean the
slave campssustainable cities as set out in the UN Agenda 21 manifesto.31
Ignore the red bump.
00
Yes EVs are only to stop peoples’ freedom of movement. Communists love control.
In some states now they wont connect to new estates , to guarantee you are forced into thier demented little grid of control and have no choice. Been a naughty boy…you get your power swiched off….love those smart meters….not. Cant cook or travel, no internet…its like been under house arrest.Funny , that…..
101
Should read
“In some states now they wont connect natural gas to new estates…”
90
Particularly new suburbs of Canberra. Gets jolly cold there in winter.
40
Give them the two fingers.
There are alternatives – e.g. Chiefio has several reviews of options for cooking stoves
30
“Victorian tourism slumps as power outages increase”.
How’s that for a headline?
40
Nice rant except none of that is happening. Nobody is talking 100% renewables or flocking to evs any more thsn other States.
01
Climate zombie stupid round-up …
People take to the streets to protest global warming, anger at the government triggered by catastrophic bushfires and droughts.
As people gather, it starts pouring with long awaited heavy rain. Gotta love Melbourne …
Thousands attend climate change rally in Melbourne
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/thousands-attend-climate-change-rally-in-melbourne-20200110-p53qj4.html
Joaquin Phoenix flies to DC; tells the little people not to ingest meat or dairy products …
“I struggle so much with what I can do [to combat global warming] at times.
There are things that I can’t avoid — I flew a plane out here today, or last night rather.
But one thing that I can do is change my eating habits.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joaquin-phoenix-arrested-jane-fonda-fire-drill-fridays-protest-climate-change-today-2020-01-10/
>> Might wanna remove the coats, jumpers, scarves and beanies in advance if you want to convince sane folk it is too warm …
120
It troubles me that we are not prepared for a Royal Commission on the cause beyond dead wood and arsonists. They will argue that an increase in CO2 has destabilised the atmospheric system, some kind of energy imbalance caused by an invisible blanket, which is exacerbating weather conditions.
Narrow terms of reference, was ‘climate change’ a contributing factor in this bushfire season?
80
Questions for any ‘climate scientist’ out there:
– Are cooler temperatures also proof of global warming?
– How does carbon (sic) know when to rain?
“As a cool change threatened to intensify Victoria’s raging bushfires(?), large crowds gathered at the State Library to demand climate change action, funding for firefighters and the sacking of Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
At the rally, Swanston Street became a sea of umbrellas as protestors kept arriving into the evening.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/thousands-attend-climate-change-rally-in-melbourne-20200110-p53qj4.html
60
Show them Roy Spencer’s comparison of the 74/75 bushfires to 19/20:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Australia-bushfires-hectares-burned-by-year-scaled.jpg?fbclid=IwAR0XBmp9aRTiATLurtapJHhfbAdpaAahY_qwuDbWlldPMHSXD5rXrvF9My0
Remember: there is now ‘so much’ co2 in the atmosphere that we have passed the ‘tipping point’.
Oh, but it was worse 45 years ago… what?
90
We could also show that a very strong IOD and negative SAM were involved in the severe drought and bushfires during WW2. Sudden Stratospheric Warming may have been a player, if it was in the combo then we’ll all know that natural variables rule, but obviously the SSW fingerprint is undetectable.
20
el gordo
Remember Marble Bar’s record temperature run 1923-24?
Has anyone had a look at various climate/weather metrics (IOD would probably be first choice) around that period and particularly before in case of lags to see if anything shows up?
20
We’ll need BoMs supercomputer and leave out CO2 forcing.
10
I noticed the london climate protest outside australia house was organized by the usual suspects of X R.
X R appear to have all the indicators of being set up and run by The Establishment….Helegian Dialectic at play…control all sides of the fight to steer the narrative.
100
Over 25 million Australians didn’t protest against climate change on Friday , was the headline on all MSM.
80
That ghastly sceptic (Tony Abbott) did not protest. He was too busy fighting the fires and saving lives. I suspect many of the firefighters are also sceptics – unlike the scummy grubs protesting about nothing other than capitalism.
90
Not sure Abbotts choices are a great argument really. Millions fight in wars on what others perceive to be the “wrong” side.
01
An English regional counter-terrorism policing unit listed Extinction Rebellion in a 12-page anti-extremism guidance booklet entitled Safeguarding Young People and Adults from Ideological Extremism that also includes [practitioners of a certain religion] and far-right terror organisations.
They are now withdrawing the booklet after the Guardian “made enquiries”. Spineless.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/01/11/uk-counter-terrorism-police-listed-extinction-rebellion-extremist-group/
50
My mother who is in her 80s but smart as a whip with a Masters in History and calls a spade a flamin’ shovel, was at a dinner with a good friend and thier Physiotherapist grand daughter.
At some stage the conversation shifted to climate and this “triggred” the grand daughter to produce what my mother described as “a full blown rant about 97% of scientists etc etc”.
Now my mother is fairly easy going, however she basically summed the climate cult rant as ” impenetrable stupidity”….
In the 1800s we’d have called them cannon fodder.
People like ISIS have doctors and engineeds in their ranks, so education is no protection against radicalization, but people are now weary of educated morons who just should know better but dont think for themsleves….
40
Avi Yemini, in the global warming rain in Melbourne, gets down & dirty with low-info global warming protestors … who don’t know what the Indian Ocean Dipole is …
https://www.tr.news/sackscomo-protest-melbourne/
Too funny!
40
Book review
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/01/11/how-is-energy-rich-australia-running-out-of-electricity/
“The major problem with his story is his commitment to the science-denying cult of warmism and the war on CO2. There is a lot of it about and it is not going away any time soon.”
20
Wake up and smell the smoke, or are you too scared
522
Say “Billy Durra dug a burra” really fast ten times………or are you too scared?
81
Only a slight smoke haze in the Central West and a cool southerly breeze, morning sir.
70
74/75 season was far far worse.
nothing about 19/20 is unprecedented.
climate is just being used as a stalking horse for a radical political agenda.
171
It was not worse DLK – Most of the 74/75 fires were in the NT and were burning in spinifex.
416
The 1974/75 fires in AU were much worse than the 2019/20 fires.
9 times larger. 3 times the size of GE.
https://notrickszone.com/2020/01/11/forgotten-fact-1974-75-australian-bush-fires-were-more-than-9-times-greater-than-those-of-2019-20/
70
It’s a great example of wishing the past away.
The claim of 117 million hectares may well be accurate. Of course, area-wise most of it was grass fires when the lush mid-seventies suddenly turned to summer drought across the continent.
So they admit there were fires but keep the subject as “grasses in the north”.
In fact, after that baking December of ’74, Victoria was ripe for it…and copped it. You might well say it was mostly “grasses in the north” when 15% of the continent went up. It still leaves a massive area that wasn’t “grass in the north”.
More renewable stunts and sustainable word-games from the GeeUppers. They never run out.
90
History of disasters shows there is nothing new about nation’s destructive blazes
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/history-of-disasters-shows-there-is-nothing-new-about-nations-destructive-blazes/news-story/f43c2a6037a8b0e422a69880bce10139
80
You sure do maintain your mantel – the DRONGO.
00
Most of the 74/75 fires were an order of magnitude less in number but burnt more, dare I say it, per capita.
20
Peter F
1974 Moolah-Corinya bushfires, Far West NSW New South Wales 1,117,000 2,760,000 Mid-December 1974 3 40 homes, 10,170 kilometres (6,320 mi) of fencing, 50,000 livestock [78][79][80][81]
1974 Cobar bushfire New South Wales 1,500,000 3,700,000 Mid-December 1974 [78][79][80][81]
1974 Balranald bushfire New South Wales 340,000 840,000 Mid December 1974 [79][80][81]
1974–75 New South Wales bushfires New South Wales 4,500,000 11,000,000 1974–1975 season 6 [82][83][84]
1974–1975 Northern Territory bushfires Northern Territory 45,000,000 110,000,000 1974–1975 season [77]
1974–1975 Queensland bushfires Queensland 7,500,000 19,000,000 1974–1975 season [77]
1974–1975 South Australia bushfires South Australia 17,000,000 42,000,000 1974–1975 season [77]
1974–1975 Western Australia bushfires Western Australia 29,000,000 72,000,000 1974–1975 season
So the worst bushfire season is judged on not how many people died, not how much area was burnt, not how wide-spread throughout Australia they were BUT ……?
And, 1974/5 fires were in between two wet years with supposedly lower temps.
10
Excellent response, but he’ll ignore it if he even sees it. Ian can I ask what document you are quoting from there?
00
beowulf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia
Not the greatest source but it’s a bit left wing so PF would be happy with that.
00
Get out on the fireline…
You won’t… because you’ve already proven that you are too scared.
51
I’ve already told you that I worked in conjunction with the RFS last year. And for God’s sake stop with the chest beating. You are scared, not me.
224
Noticed that the grubby troll refuses to answer..
92
I sometimes wish said grubby troll would bxxxer off out of this, my Safe Space, as I get triggered. But then I read the responses of the sensible people and I realise he serves a purpose.
91
Lolly-pop-man. !!
62
Fitz,..
You told us that you worked with them after the risk had gone
I also have personal knowledge of the circumstances in which the RFS lets people like you onto the fire ground. I know, because I have been the person making that call.
So no, zero credit to you and your hypocrisy is as obvious as ever.
Like all the panic-merchants, you are demanding that others keep you safe, but you don’t pay the cost yourself. The panic about “climate change” is exactly that…. a fear of the unknown future.
50
Are you too scared to look at basic WEATHER patterns
You are certainly too SCARED or incompetent to provide any real science to support the farce that is human caused climate change.
82
According to you CO2 traps heat (although you have zero evidence)
There have been huge amounts of CO2 and huge amounts of heat released into the atmosphere by the fires….
yet today its only 20ºC
Where did all that “CO2 trapped” heat go to?
You have NOTHING, as always.
121
Mr. Fitzroy,
I think it’s those like you who should be afraid of the Australian voters waking up and throwing the bunch of you into the nearest body of water and saying, “Don’t come back.”
BB
70
Is Peat really a fire; or just a Smoulder.
KK
40
I saw on in Shetland in 1977.
There was a lot of smoke in the west as I drove north about 9.30 a.m.
I came south to Scalloway about 3.30 p.m. and the peat fire was about two thirds of the way up a steep hill, with the breeze coming off the Atlantic. Apparently this was usual practice, start the fire early at the base of the hill, and the hot air would dry out the peat above, so the fire could advance very slowly.
None of the locals were concerned for as one explained the fire would be put out either by getting to the top of the slope or by the usual rain.
Peat was used for fires except all the locals switched to either gas or electricity. Peat was sliced into strips and piled up to dry somewhat before use. The “romantic” lure of the smoke was popular among new arrivals from the oil company and assorted government departments. As one native said, “after neglecting the islands for 500 years, we need soothmoothers now we’ve got the oil”.
30
When I lived close to woodland and heathland in Dorset, there were occasional heath fires, in hot dry Summers particularly.
I think one would have to be a buffoon not to be worried had they grown larger and closer to habitations, and not to have had an evacuation plan.
Today at the allotment great, btw.
I used the Met Office data and found that I could expect light clouds, blue sky and sunshine with a fresh, chilly wind through late morning and the afternoon. And that was what I got, although shielded from the wind by the trees along the river bank, as I had hoped.
(The Met Office forecast itself informed me that I could expect overcast skies, possible showers and a chilly wind for most of the day.
Models, eh? Doncha just luv em?)
40
These are questions for mosomoso who wrote:
mosomoso
January 11, 2020 at 8:40 am · Reply
I’ve just done an all-nighter nursing a fire along my completely neglected boundary (with forestry). The cavalry have arrived and I’m going to bed
Are you going to claim bushfire relief funds for you admitted neglect?
Are you going to give a big donation to the local RFS, who, because of your neglect, had to be diverted from other duties to help someone as lazy as yourself?
Are you going to write to the Argus and admit your neglect and praise the work of the RFS?
323
I read that the neglected boundary is State Forest, which he can’t touch.
Yes, we KNOW they are neglected
That is what we have been telling you all along!
You are yet again putting your foot in your mouth then biting down hard.
142
I will wait for Mosomoso – not his barking dog
219
You are the only one making childish LYING yap-ping noises.
63
There’s only one darking bog here, Peater.
Get out and P on the peat pete.
40
The DRONGO is barking – MAD.
01
Before he turns up, by Friday this bushfire season will end.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=6
80
Just a forecast EG
From Weatherzone.
But I hope they are right.
The Big Wet has started in the North
20
Looking at the low pressure troughs and the possibility of an East Coast Low forming.
20
Some of us seaweeds are looking at that troppo/low and dusting off the longboards,
next weekend is looking good,
a little groundswell from the nor’nor’east (Fiji)
plus an easterly from a little low east of us…
Finally – could it be summer (cyclone season) at last?
10
“for your admitted neglect”
That is just a downright LIE.
He never said it was his neglect. !
A truly disgusting mis-interpretation of what was actually written.
Slimy trolling at its worst.
111
Agree with you there Andy; Moso did not say it was his neglect but that it was the neglect in the state forest next to him. Some wilful misinterpretation there by Peter it seems.
110
Watching news last night, this guy talking about recent fires said while the area was state forest they could get controlled burns done.
Once it became a national park it stopped.
So is the quiet move to put those national parks effectively under *UN control* and out of Australian control?
91
Question is are you going to apologise to mosomoso when, as AndyG55 points out with a huge cluebat to the head, he legally cannot touch State Forest without threats of fines, jail etc…?
Or are you (as many suspect) the grubbiest pseudo-environmentalist Greenie coward out there?
101
if it was the fault of state forests he would have said as such – “my completely neglected” . that is what he wrote
223
the government limits the vegetation you are allowed to clear from your own property.
100
Which is perfect to make sure you get burnt out, give up and leave your farm, and the govt “rewilds” your land as per Agenda 21…..
81
Completely neglected by WHO? is the question, not an assumption.
50
Can’t in a LIE, you double down as always
It really is childish behaviour.
43
Just to clarify, as you appear to take things too literally.
Should I ever refer to MY allotment, it is actually owned by the City Council, and I rent a plot of land from them.
Capisce?
Similarly, MY Town, MY Country, etc.
My Word! ‘Tis my bedtime.
70
Slimebag Fitz !
42
grubbiest pseudo-environmentalist Greenie coward out there
You hit the nail right on the head, Yonnie. !!
62
Its not an ad hominem when its poetic Andy. 🙂
21
seems non-interventionist forest management policy is to blame for creating a fuel load.
but why hold government responsible for their negligence when you can just blame ‘climate change’.
Why bother looking at weather events which might have created hot and dry conditions (indian ocean dipole), when you can just blame ‘climate change’.
Why bother looking at the actual causes when blaming ‘climate change’ means the same fuel loads can be allowed to build up again (carbon sinks), then we can blame ‘climate change’ all over again (OMG, tipping pooint!)!!
120
It was State Forest boundary. The fire started in State Forest. The fire was in State Forest.
My God some people are thick.
(As for donations, long before the fire on my boundary I offered our local fireys a blank cheque for the work they have done elsewhere over this last season.)
Talk about flaming thick. Attention span of an aphid.
GeeUp! Get yourselves a new PF. This one is broken.
[He’s baiting you at every chance he gets. He’ll never admit he’s wrong or that you’re right. I understand the frustration.] AZ
[Forgetting about PF, I want to extend my heartfelt concern for your own property and personal wellness. It sounds like you had a very close call. I’ve worked around fire before but it was a boreal woods fire. Plenty of loss of woods and buildings but also many people rigged sprinklers of of nearby lakes and saved all buildings by doing so. Still I was there when across the lake from me the wind changed and the fire moved 15 miles in about 30 minutes. Very scary.]ED
110
And I was working near (within 100 meters) fires 3 months ago, and they are still burning, you did not give me any slack then, now I am returning the favour. By the way those fires burnt to within 250 metres of my house, twice.
29
Even the fire doesn’t want you.
41
Preventative burning requires sensible people Peter.
10
How about acting like a real man and apologising to mosomoso Peter?
It was a personal attack on his character by you that was proven incorrect.
40
“How about acting like a real man”
Not going to happen. !
32
Moso.
Fitz is not thick.
He is a very deliberate liar.
60
My reply is in moderation for some reason. It will appear in good time. And it will be clear.
50
I’ve been asked to simplify my response.
It was State Forest boundary. The fire started in State Forest. The fire was in State Forest. I was protecting a fire break on my side of the boundary. There was no break on the other side.
As for donations, long before the fire on my boundary I offered our local fireys a blank cheque for the work they have done elsewhere over this season.
90
So, the grubby troll was wrong on every account.. as usual.
I wonder how long we will have to wait for him to become a man and apologise.
One suggestion though, you should write to Angus, and say the wherever a State Forest butts up against private properties, there should have at least a 20m fire break zone on the State Forest side, by law.
70
Gale-force winds here in Northeastern Ohio, US today and tomorrow. All of wind turbines around here have their blades feathered, so no wind power is being generated. Seems like a waste they can’t take advantage of all the “free” energy of a really windy day.
120
US fire fighters join AU RFS brothers and sisters to fight the bushfires.
https://www.westernjournal.com/us-firefighters-sent-battle-australia-fires-receive-heroes-welcome-cheered-upon-arrival-airport/
60
How good is this.
‘Liberal MP Craig Kelly outperforms Scott Morrison, Anthony Albanese on Facebook
‘Most weeks, Liberal MP Craig Kelly has higher engagement on his Facebook page than the Prime Minister.
By this measure, the outspoken backbencher is one of Australia’s most influential politicians on social media.’ SMH
211
My only criticism of Kelly is when under fire from always hostile leftist journalists who keep interrupting he goes blank .
He needs to start interjecting and say do you want to hear what I’ve got to say or do you just want to carry on interjecting like a two year old .
Why am I here if you won’t let me answer a question .
90
Kelly & Morrison
Should leave
If the journos interrupt and distract
And disrespect
They need to say “You are an unprofessional scumbag”
And walk away on camera
Then ban the bastards from any future
Interviews.
Stuff the bastards
30
Craig Kelly is the Token Conservative that Liberal Party Inc. trot out
when Gaslighting of Conservatives and more Reactionary types
is deemed necessary.
then he’s returned to his box.
He’s quite good at it, got to admit that.
22
You are wrong, he is an independent thinker and a political backbencher who speaks openly on the subject of climate change. Morrison has little sway over him.
After this short time here do you still believe CO2 causes gorebull worming?
41
Craig Kelly told Piers Morgan that he believes Global Warming is a huge issue.
Perhaps you need to address your query to Craig Kelly?
10
Global warming is a huge issue, mass delusion needs attending.
There is no doubt about it, the man has integrity.
20
Comrade hat, do you think climate change has played a part in this bushfire season?
10
Nice bushfire alarmist piece on the BBC website, with a graphic showing bushfires across the country. So many people doing expert remote diagnostics on Australia at the moment. They have no concept of life in a dry place and that numerous dispersed bushfires are pretty normal. They now conflate the large NSW/VIC fires into “Australia is burning”
Similar maps for the US, Latin America and southern Europe in peak summer would be interesting. Life outside that grey soggy island is indeed different.
120
We’ve had messages from friend in Argentina and the Philippines
Asking if we are safe.
There have been moments in the past 3 weeks here at Mt Barker SA
But mostly OK.
But our friends via their local media have been told
We are ALL burning here in Oz.
51
Sounds slightly ominous.
As if overseas opinion is being groomed to accept the inevitability of
Mass Evacuation of Australia on Humanitarian grounds.
20
They Said it.
Its Time to Get Out. Leave now while you still can.
20
Same here; goodness knows what they are being fed over in the UK. I Still have some kindly enquiring emails to answer.
40
You will be pleased to know that here in the UK what we are being fed with is adverts for holidays in Australia.
The post Xmas period is the time when we plan our annual holidays and the commercial TV adverts are full of pictures of
the outback (minus bush fires), the Kimberlies and the Reef, and of course the delectable multinational cuisine available in major cities
such as Sydney and Melbourne.
Don’t beat yourselves up, many of our friends have family in Australia, enjoy their visits enormously and extol the sights
and the people in and of the cities and countryside.
30
I forget the DT headline a couple of days ago, but it was somewhat on the lines that with so much of Australia supposed to be so hot and burning that tourists would avoid it. I took a screenshot of what I wrote putting them a bit straight. When I went back later to see if there was any response the article had completely disappeared!
00
Although most of us including myself often blame the MSM, politicians and the education system for the spread of the CAGW hoax, we neglect to point out the real problem, which I have on rare occasions also have mentioned. What’s missing is a rigorous and honest analysis by the scientific community. Instead we get mixed and contradictory messages, insults and confusion. That presents another problem. It allows the MSM, politicians and the education system to present their own slant on things picking out those messages from the scientific community that support the CAGW hypothesis and reject the rest. It’s a sad indictment on the scientific community for allowing the CAGW hoax to stay alive for so long and gathering even more strength in the West. Some would say it’s a conspiracy to destroy the West. I just like to think it’s due to our stupidity and laziness to do our own research, and instead rely too much on what the MSM, politicians and education systems proclaim as though they honour the truth, which is so far from being true it’s not funny. It’s typical of the downfall of past civilisations. History repeats. Cycles.
71
Its all a rich tapestry of incumbent humans that reside in positions of power only from the apathy of the good that by their nature didn’t take offence of clowns.
42
The saying “the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing” rings so true.
30
The general population get mixed messages and as they are not too interested in climate science they cannot make an informed decision, or as someone put it to me …’who to believe?’
So we have to come up with a better story and saying ‘nothing unusual is happening’ simply won’t work.
60
how about
1. creation of dangerous fuel loads through carbon sequestration / land clearing policy / failure to implement royal commission and other report findings.
2. indian ocean dipole
3. 1 degree warming since 1910 is not a probable cause.
4. no trend of diminishing rainfall patterns
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/05/178-years-of-australian-rain-has-nothing-to-do-with-co2-worst-extremes-1849-1925-1950/
5. droughts and floods used to be longer, worse
http://joannenova.com.au/2016/05/1000-year-rainfall-study-suggests-droughts-and-floods-used-to-be-longer-worse/
71
All good moves but who are the “we”? I understand that Jo’s and other similar sites who are presenting the real hard evidence showing CAGW is a myth are doing some good. It’s however not MSM. Even Sky News with sceptics like Bolt and others is gradually being infiltrated with CAGW believers. They might think it’s OK because they want to give the impression they are open minded to all views unlike the ABC but the problem is they are often presented too quickly and without real evidence and discussion. I can see how such news media are not designed for discussions but for quick bursts of news but that approach actually helps to fuel the CAGW myth. So the only way to break the nexus is for the scientific community to come out and have a healthy, robust and honest discussion of the topic. Can’t see that happening any time soon.
10
the MSM is on the way out.
they are growing increasingly shrill in their attempts to remain relevant and attract an audience share.
41
Australians hate being lied to…thats a good start.
Expose the lies…and off you go….
82
If a lie is repeated often enough then it becomes the new truth. It worked for Hitler and others. So to avoid a repeat of the same mistakes as in the past we need a leader who calls out the CAGW hoax instead of pretending it doesn’t mater and going some ways to supporting it by way of a reduction in our emissions. I’m still waiting for our version of Trump. I think I will be waiting forever.
42
It couldn’t work for that Wartime German Chancellor, because he never employed it.
The Big Lie, repeated endlessly, was the invention of
The Bolshevik Propaganda Minister Karl Radek.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Radek
10
Original Steve said:
Have you ever been to Australia?
Lies, along with Meat Pies, are
our National Dish.
Here’s the great C.J Dennis on Australia and Australians, first published 1917.
https://archive.org/details/glugs_of_gosh_librivox
10
Also Australians only ever hate begin lied to when they know they are lied to in the first place. Catch 22.
10
The public were not interested in climate change until now because more and more of the MSM is reporting how climate change is real and we must do something about it. Repeat a lie often enough it soon becomes the new truth.
30
so, 1 degree warming since 1910 is the cause? (it hardly could be, but anyway)
so, if we accept that 1 degree is all due to co2 (lol):
1. by how much will each solar panel / windmill / carbon credit reduce fire intensity / fire risk?
2. how much blame ($$$) should be apportioned to china / india / USA for their carbon emissions?
40
If one degree temperature rise was the cause of the current bushfires, does that mean the bushfires a decade ago were caused by a 0.9 degree temperature rise?
If they weren’t, then does that mean that the current fires were caused by a 0.1 degree rise in temperature?
51
‘Repeat a lie often enough it soon becomes the new truth.’
A Royal Commission on the fires will find that elevated CO2 levels were not responsible for the drought or bushfires. How will the ABC, Fairfax and Guardian handle that? We know the Murdocracy will support the findings, as would the Morrison government.
10
Speaking of maps, try
https://notrickszone.com/2020/01/11/forgotten-fact-1974-75-australian-bush-fires-were-more-than-9-times-greater-than-those-of-2019-20/
for an illustrative map.
30
No facts please, PF has already dispensed with this 1974 stuff with one of his telling unsourced one liners up in 8.3.1
60
PF will concentrate hardest on areas of great danger to the vlate lie…..the greater the attempt to steer the topic from the original via insult, attack or changing the subject, the bigger the clue its dangerous to the climatariat and they dont want it discussed.
This brings us back to the 1974 fires size….
52
The greater the risk to the climate lie, the more the attempts to steer people away via multiple means….
41
I just posted a listing of 14 of Jo’s fire posts from here on my Climate Change Debate Education site. Hers is by far the world’s best analysis, including the several thousand comments.
https://ccdedu.blogspot.com/2020/01/jo-nova-analyzes-austrailian-fires.html
Woohoo!
David
140
Agreed. Jo has one of, if not The, best blogs on the planet.
A grand following, as well, of largely informative and brilliant commenters. Tony from Oz especially.
Thanks for the posting, Mr. David. 🙂
50
Nice. Now all we need to do is have this information disseminated to our politicians, schools, Universities and MSM. It would be a good start. Too bad the scientific community isn’t taking the same initiative to present the facts to the same target audience.
20
You are assuming that politicians, combined with the MSM, produces a subset of humanity, who are erudite enough to follow this site.
You can stop holding your breath now.
40
Never thought they never would and never will. They have the collective intelligence not much more than a rodent.
11
You are assuming that politicians, combined with the MSM, produces a subset of humanity, who are erudite enough to follow this site.
You can stop holding your breath now.
30
And how has the broader universe been?
20
Fitzroy stood in the burning wreck,
Whence all but he had fled;
The cause of the fires,
He misunderstood.
Faithful but not very bright he stood,
Trying to rule the storm;
The flames – he could not explain,
And fast the rebuttals rolled in.
A creature of foolish notions,
Going through the motions.
A proud, though childlike brain.
Upon his own he felt dismay
yet still in brave despair.
And shouted but once more aloud,
‘ It’s climate change I say’
122
“A proud, though childlike brain.”
I suspect that if he was capable of introspection, he would feel deep SHAME at the actions of the greenie agenda he so worships.
They have done great harm to Australia in so many ways.
61
Yes the alarmists in the West and only in the West have done a lot of harm but the harm will get much worse if they are left to continue their crusade to save the world from a mythical climate emergency.
11
always the ultracrepidarian 😀
00
The Paris Climate Accords, signed on behalf of Australia by Tony Abbott during
his last week as P.M.*, commits Australia to significant reductions in CO2
,emissions in 3 areas, to wit:
1. Power Generation 2.Pastoralism 3. Road Transport
How is this not an updated version of William The Conqueror’s Harrying of the North,
when his Armies burnt the villages, burnt the fields, burnt all the tools and equipment,
slaughtered all the livestock, and killed everyone they could find?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrying_of_the_North
* How desperate was he that he’d sell Australia down the drain just to buy a few
more miserable days in the job?
46
In the run up to the election he said we should stay in Paris, not a good look for political expediency. Better to die on your feet than on your knees.
20
Jo and others
I’ve mentioned “landscape audits” done after fires, and have had time to look up one for a fire near me. In fact, I was heading east from Chinook Pass (Sat. 8/12/2017) and saw the smoke plume from the Friday lightning strike that became the Norse Peak Fire. A USFS truck with 2 folks were along the side of the road – watching the rising smoke.
The fire landscape was studied, even while it was still hot.
See:
Norse Peak Fire Recap
4 reports – see white-on-green links, right side.
https://www.wrra.net/norse-peak-fire-info
In the soils one, note the info on page 6, Table 4.
[ SBS = Soil Burn Severity ]
I recall these reports were from 2018, but don’t see dates.
40
Whiteboard systems analysis sketch
(1) Megafires fires have happened before – but perhaps this event a record for national extent
(2) Drought – this time not El Nino based but IOD, SAM and stratospheric warming anomaly
(3) Fuel load – time since burnt – La Nina years generate fuel buildup
(4) Fuel reduction strategies if any
(5) Arsonists, back-burn/controlled-burn escapes, micro-embers from modern car exhausts, ciggy butts, military ordinance testing, but mainly dry lightning?
(6) Climate change in terms of temperature maxima and fire weather (unless you also think CC affects IOD and SAM too ~ maybe some evidence to that, but others years could involve ENSO also impacted by CC to some extent)
(7) Does regular back burning only select species that like fire and not effective as intuition suggests
(8) Cool aboriginal burning techniques but labour intensive
(9) Left (green) vs right wing politics, CC believers and sceptics, tribalism, lack of balance by both sides, polarisation and lack of proportionality
(10) % of global emissions Australia can influence/contributes – what uninformed believers don’t get that’s small
(11) Tree changers, living in fire prone vegetation – a dangerous retirement
(12) Fire fighting technology – more kit, high tech kit, drones, satellites, water bombers
(13) The inevitability of another big drought and very hot conditions – no escape whatever you do as we’re living in a nation of fire-prone vegetation. Will all burn sometime except rainforests (hopefully).
(14) Is the palaeoclimate data worse
(15) Having home and contents insurance – how many didn’t?
(16) Greens preventing back burns a ruse argument – trend builds since 1919 – when did the “green” movement invent itself? 1960s? https://sites.google.com/site/stopbushfires/about-dr-christine-finlay . Fuel load issues belong to all of us.
(17) So unpicking all this and allocating proportionality of contribution.
(18) Designing future ember-storm proof infrastructure
43
‘ … but perhaps this event a record for national extent.’ Roy Spence’s graph disproves that.
Okay, I’ll tackle this one.
‘Drought – this time not El Nino based but IOD, SAM and stratospheric warming anomaly’
30
The extent of fires spatially Qld to Vic to WA El Gordo – not whether UAH temps up there in the lower trop correlate perfectly with temps on the ground. Hey it’s close to the ground where the fires are aren’t they – not 100s-1000s metres up there?
20
I’ll add
https://www.science.org.au/news-and-events/news-and-media-releases/statement-regarding-australian-bushfires?fbclid=IwAR2WBtttedmLFX2F66iGgNf6RDLhLiWx5bZQdE_oEx7fRZQtUxLdQFoGQpc
These are unprecedented anywhere in the world.
/science by the way
27
… except Australia.
30
That is a blatant lie, this bushfire season is not unprecedented, nevertheless I welcome the AAS submission to the Royal Commission.
20
Trusting political insiders at the BoM and CSIRO with their grand supranational agenda is not wise. Shine being a molecular scientist may be discerning or not.
30
… but wait, look over there.
‘Unprecedented rainfall has poured down across the Top End, with one island off the coast of Darwin recording a potentially record-breaking 562mm in 24 hours.’
30
A statement from left oriented bureaucrats pushing their mantra
wow.. so what. !
Global fires areas have a downward trend. That is science by the way.
Australian fires were a confluence of drought, strong winds and dry fuel build up.
There is no science in that link, just a consensus statement.
A statement like….
…. does not belong in any scientific statement, only in propaganda.
It is build on nothing but conjecture and mantra.
The 1.5C number was pulled out of someone ass, you know that don’t you.. Its meaningless..
And nothing Australia does will have the remotest effect on any warming or cooling.
We are still waiting for your wonky science showing human released CO2 has anything to do with these bushfires, or any causation in the beneficial warming we have had since the LIA.
40
Other blatant untruths in that statement
1. Not unprecedented.
1974/75 was 10 times the size. Black Friday was far more destructive and killed more people. This year was so widespread because there was so much easily ignited dry fuel load in State Forests and National Parks. That is where nearly all the burn area was, areas on the boundaries had little hope because of the wind and fuel driven intensity of the fires.
2. “The scientific evidence base shows that as the world warms due to human induced climate change, we experience an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.”
Again not true.. neither frequency or severity of so-called extreme events has increased
Hurricanes have not increased
3. Global bushfire area is downward trending as shown above.
It is good to see him mention the Aborigines, perhaps they can teach the greenie agenda in control of local councils how to do proper burn-offs.
50
All can be explained as natural. In any event how on Earth can you say that it is unnatural. Illogical.
30
I agree: science has gone “by the way”.
We now live in the Dreamtime.
But hang on, wasn’t there one of those a long time ago that some still remember?
KK
10
In the Austral spring SAM was very negative and the IOD more positive than anytime in recent history. These oscillations are apparently not teleconnected, but operate under some kind of internal dynamic.
The impact of the SSW on our maritime continent deserves more attention, but from what we have observed it was the final straw. A tinder box primed for ignition.
30
‘Cool aboriginal burning techniques but labour intensive’
I support the motion, a green army will be expensive to run but worth every cent. Seasonal guest workers welcome, earn a dollar and get an inkling of life in the dream time.
30
Hazedreduction burning is not particularly costly or labour-intensive as the Western Australians proved by practical experience
I do wish people would look at the available evidence on this, too.
40
Well a few sparsely scattered indigenous prople “managed” the whole continent apparently , so how labour intensive can it be really?
10
Vishnu, paleoclimatology is not getting worse, but some scientists fudge the data to get the desired result, Michael Mann’s hockey stick is a good example.
10
el Gordo – I was giving you a free kick of palaeo droughts maybe having been worse. (but was last time the world warmed – cough cough).
21
Thanks for the free kick, here they look back 1000 years into our paleo history and reckon droughts are a cyclic phenomenon.
https://www.theland.com.au/story/5313944/deep-climate-cycles-reveal-australias-real-drought-risk/
00
mmmm – quasi-periodic at best. IPO not something you can set your clock on. and also centennial variability for good measure.
00
On further reading, La Nina dominated the mid 1500s to a great degree, which may offer us a solar connection. I’ll take a closer look, either way it simply explains why Australia was so wet in late Renaissance history.
10
What a laugh!
You could get a job with Hillary’s reelection team: she’s still running, or in the race, or something.
Maybe.
KK
00
Sorry, that should have been, ” resurrection”.
00
Me and my family visited Australia 3 years ago. We went from the gold coast into the Nimbin area.
Something we noticed, other than the appalling state of the roads, and constant speed limit changes, was the vast amount of thick weeds and scrub right up to the road edge.
All was lush at the time, and large floods had evidently occurred.
But we did think that this would be a huge risk to motorists/ tourists/ animals, people, if the weather became dry and a fire was to start.
The chatter in Nimbin was all about how mild it was for June.
And the floods were another sign, of the perpetual wet weather which lay ahead (climate change).
It was bloody freezing at night. And we’re from NZ.
Nimbin seemed like a movie production of the the seventies hippy movement in this part of the world. Yet most of the props were too new, and meth heads had infiltrated the set.
110
I’ve been in that north coast area, nearer to the coast for 30 odd years, and there has almost always been, never-ending growth. Until the last couple of years. There has been the odd bush fire, scrub fires near the beach. But nothing momentous, until a couple of months ago. I dont know what can be done about the normal growth, it just keeps coming, and if it doesn’t rain for a couple of years, it’s a loaded tinder box. But it is raining now. Some of the areas that were hardest hit a couple of months ago, have had up to 40mm. We’ve had about 10, maybe.That’s fine, as it was getting very dry again, after some good greening a couple of weeks ago.
30
I see that the fires are worse than ever. I’m truly sorry that you are going trough that. It has to be something sensational to be reported in the USA. The media love a horror story because it brings in audience which brings in advertisers. You don’t deserve to be their money machine.
BB
80
The left wing media especially love to sensationalise a story if they think it can be used in their climate alarmism.
That is why the story is being driven so hard around the world IMO.
10
‘the left wing media’ – you repeat yourself! The mainstream media are almost all left wing or paid to parrot the left wing agenda.
30
Just watched Scomo interview with David Speers on abc, where Scomo said that global warming was a contributing cause to the dry, drought and bushfire disaster.
Not sure what planet, or continent Scomo and his fellow doomsday travellers are on, but Australia has gotten much wetter over the past 120 years …
Australian annual rainfall (1900 to 2019)
http://reg.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=T
71
Someone needs to get in Scott’s ear and tell him that going down this path will only lose him votes.
There are no votes to be gained by taking the Liberals down the “climate change” path.
131
That phrase used above comes to mind “better to die on your feet than on you knees” comes to mind .
Scomo needs to understand the left hate his guts and will never vote for him , all he is doing is alienating his traditional voters the quiet Australians that put him where he is now .
80
It’s a Liberal Party.
The big clue is in the name.
Anyway, Polling informs many political statements
so perhaps the entrails indicate geezers aren’t held in high regard by the youts
and the geezers are never voting Labor, so who cares?
30
There was an old joke from the time of Louis XVI.
Q: Who is the most powerful person in France?
A: The last person to talk to the king.
The same joke was applied to Tsar Nicholas II, who was as dumb as a proverbial doorknob.
The same could apply to our King Scott I. He doesn’t seem to have an opinion until someone else gives him one or he reads it in the poll results.
21
It is incumbent on BOM to issue a correction for this mistatement, they are supposed to act in ‘the public interest’.
40
Isn’t the climate and weather a contributing factor to any Bushfire Season?
Did he say global warming or did he say climate change?
Please consider to political situation, the PM is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t when it comes to climate change hoax politics.
51
“Please consider to political situation, the PM is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t when it comes to
climate changeglobal warming hoax politics.”Dennis, by perpetuating the Un doomsday global warming scam, Scomo reaps what he sows.
Galatians 6:7 – “Do not be deceived: God cannot be mocked. A man reaps what he sows.”
And so, by claiming god’s creation, man to cause the bushfires, Scomo deceives by mocking his almighty God.
Scomo also said the coalition and opposition parties are the same on UN doomsday global warming and are meeting UN targets!
Scomo is “damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t” because damned is where he should be.
60
I didn’t watch the original ABC interview but I did see a snippet of PM Morrison being interviewed on ABC played back by Sky News. He is a committed climate change/man-made global warming follower. He admitted climate change is not an issue of dispute but one of acknowledgement. Of course he might have chosen his words carefully to make it sound he is on the side of the alarmists when on ABC but the point is it’s irrelevant. The message he is now portraying to the public is he is committed CAGW follower. Whether he believes it’s real or not is only known by himself. He is a huge disappointment. Sad really but not unexpected given the calibre of politicians we have in this country.
70
Scomo admitted to the climate changing and a need to adapt to it – over and over again. Not once did he say that the change was human caused. He knows that the climate is always changing and that humanity needs to predict and adapt to that change even if it is not human caused. That is a no brainer and must be an important human endevour.
At other times he talks about carbon reduction but he never links the 2.
He never says the climate is changing due to humans and that government carbon reduction targets are a response.
He also talks a lot… I’ve read the transcripts of what he said. It is very hard to understand.
50
So then, we’ve reached a tipping point have we.
Simples, just turn off the coal fired power plants, and that’ll stop it eh!
Who’ll be the first to gain the political kudos for this, Victoria, Queensland, NSW?
Trust me on this.
They will NEVER turn off those coal fired power plants.
Shut down Sydney, Melbourne Brisbane.
THAT will NEVER happen.
Tony.
131
IF it ever happens, it’ll only happen ONCE.
After that, every elected official will be made redundant and covered with tar and feathers.
41
True. If we do turn them off our economy will come crashing down and if we have any intelligent people in control they will be turned back on very quickly. If we don’t then China will step in and do it for us.
20
Never happen?
It’s happening before your eyes.
Tar and Feathers aren’t a bad idea, though
You’ll be leading the Posse, I take it?
11
Apologies, Tony from Oz,
Lance downstairs from your comment is invoking the Tar and Feathers
so I assume he will be leading the Posse.
10
Until they can find 19500MW ….. 100%, rock solid, absolutely certain, must be there, totally reliable source of power, then they have nothing, literally.
With respect to those three Capital cities, (and every city in the Country) every tall building higher than 3 stories is immediately uninhabitable, the roads will be blocked completely, the hospitals will be under stress, and I know they have backup power at them, but once those on site generators at hospitals run out of fuel, that’s it, they can’t pump the diesel or get it to the hospitals on clogged roads. No trains, light rail, trams, ferries. Planes will be grounded.
Come nightfall, the situation just gets worse. A million people, all of them walking, where to?
Every Supermarket loses all their food etc in refrigerated and cold storage, and no way to resupply them. No banks, ATMs, credit cards. No mobile phones as all the towers down. No charging points for phones as no electricity.
Imagine the total chaos in EVERY city, not just the capitals.
That’s why Lance says above ….. it’ll only happen ONCE.
After that, all this kerfuffle about coal fired power will just ….. go right away.
The Country has to have that 19500MW of coal fired power, because there is NO substitute, and there won’t be for a very very very long time, and even when those currently aging coal fired plants finally do shut down, they will be replaced by ….. coal fired power. All we are doing now is delaying the replacement of like for like.
And also trust me on this too. Those politicians in power KNOW this, hand on heart, otherwise they would already have just shut them down. They know, and they’re not telling you.
Tony.
110
Further on,
No Cell Towers.
No Telephones
No Water
No sewage lift stations
No lifts
No traffic signals
No internet
No air traffic control
No port facilities
No Food, Water, AirCons, Refrigeration,
No Law
Utter Freaking Chaos.
That’s what happens when those 20 GW of thermal generation are not available.
If anyone wants to see Mad Max in Real Time, that would be it.
You don’t get a “do over”. Once it happens, you’re on your own. Nobody is going to save you.
That’s why it will “Only Happen Once”. The Survivors will make sure of it.
70
No ATM’s – NO MONEY
30
Oh, and that 19500MW figure.
Friday 10Jan2020 at 6.35PM.
Total power generation from every source (also the same as total power consumption) 27590MW.
Rooftop Solar plus solar power plants 214MW on it’s way back to zero (0.8%)
Wind was a little above average at 2490MW. (9%)
Hydro was around average as usual at this time at 2050MW (7.5%)
Coal fired power was 19485MW (70.7%)
The rest is from gas fired plants, OCGT, and CCGT ….. oh, and the Battery in SouthAus at umm 0.06% or 16MW
Keep in mind that most of the hydro is for Tasmania, half the wind and gas is SouthAus, and ALL that coal fired power is in NSW, Qld, and Vic.
At that time, 6.35PM.
NSW – consuming 11500MW (41.7%)
Qld – consuming 8620MW (31.2%)
Vic – consuming 5190MW (18.8%)
Tas and SthAus consuming the remaining 8.3%.
There is no way known on Earth they will turn those coal fired power plants off.
Tony.
60
oh, and the Battery in SouthAus at umm 0.06% or 16MW
Which must have been actually generated from another source.
Batteries DO NOT generate electricity.
60
Keep in mind here that this isn’t just here in Australia.
It’s everywhere on Planet Earth. Even the UN knows this, otherwise they would have done everything to convince World leaders to shut them down, but all they HAVE done is to try and get those World leaders to introduce a CO2 tax on the emissions, to make money from them, knowing full well that they CANNOT shut them down. Now can you see why no one is telling you. There’s too much money to be made from it.
Tony.
80
Every Single Thing that Politicians DO is to increase their power and Wealth.
Little people be damned.
But the Politicians need the Little People in order to Obtain and Maintain Power, up until they Don’t.
See firearms confiscation and delegated powers to administrative functionaries with legislative and regulatory authority.
It is the Little People who actually Hold Power. It is the Elite who deceive everyone to maintain their illusion of power.
If you don’t believe me, watch what is happening in Iran. Quds, Khameini, etc, all are afraid of the Little People.
You see, there are Millions of Little People. There are only Dozens of Elites.
DO the Maths.
60
I noticed Energy Australia has just increased its rates.
Politicians and regulators have been assuring us that prices were reducing and they would make the suppliers comply.
But the suppliers can’t do anything else if their costs increase.
40
It happened Tony
Here in SA in 2016.
The Labor government
Got the right royal kick up the bum in March 2018
With steel capped boots.
They are still whimpering from that pain
20
For those with a Fronius inverter this youtube from Gold Coast Power Solutions may be of interest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4L4dUx6PwaQ
I, and others in this town, have been troubled by high voltages. This morning it was 251 at 10.20 a.m.** but the peak in the past year was 277.3V. That may have been recent as my neighbour complained of 270 V about 2 weeks ago. Another resident, 2 streets away in the old part of town (different circuit as they can have power when we get none) reports her solar dropping out regularly.
**Solar running at 66.8% of nominal capacity
30
Thanks Graeme. My system using a Fronius is being installed on Wed, so was interested in the info.
10
… the urban rioting that will provoke will be of a similar magnitude to the current bushfires. The cities so burnt will be unlivable.
10
Came across an interesting story of a ship sailing from California to Australia in 1891? That was wrecked when the captain lost sight of the mainland because of bushfire smoke .
http://vhd.heritage.vic.gov.au/shipwrecks/heritage/718
60
Bushfire season is starting earlier and finishing later, the climate alarmists are claiming, although how they know that for 2019-2020 Bushfire Season I do not understand.
http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/50/australias-bushfire-seasons/
Please note New South Wales and Victoria.
50
Let’s put it this way, Dennis:
If they say the season will start earlier and finish later
Irrespective of the Science
I’m taking their word on it,
if you get my drift.
20
The irony is other countries are having their winters starting earlier and finishing later causing record snows and the like. I wonder why the alarmists aren’t calling out global cooling? PS: that was a rhetorical question with an obvious answer.
40
Wellington NZ is currently dull, with a NW gale, and 16 degrees.
We are having a very cool, and dull summer here.
Last weekend the sky was overcast and a dark brown came over.
Birds began their evening chorus at 230pm.
Very surreal.
80
Happened in Auckland too.
00
Peter S said:
I don’t keep a close track on the latest trends in stupidity, but:
Wasn’t the Global Warming slogan quietly abandoned when snow started falling at odd times of
the year, and replaced by Climate Change?
20
From your link:
1961 bushfire manual lists Eastcoast NSW season as August to February with August, Sept, Feb as outlier months.
see:
https://volunteerfirefighters.org.au/bush-fire-control-australia-1961
[and thanks to whoever originally posted that link, here]
50
The criteria would be interesting and adjustments would be interesting reading
00
I’d go easy on the 1974 comparison. It’s too easily shot down. It’s a waste of energy. A lot of scrub burnt in to the west, but most of it was spinifex country, and there had been a good growing year previous. It’s just a distraction. You’re comparing roast meat and baked bread. They’re both cooked in a fire. Yummy, but very different. Huge areas of spinifex burn every year. No one notices or cares.
60
Didn’t someone notice in 1974/75? It would be easy to shoot down at a ratio of 1:1 – but it is 10:1, maybe more.
20
My parents were in NZ when the fires were burning in 74.
Auckland airport was chaos with flights back cancelled or delayed. Eventually my mother got on a flight to Sydney (she had relatives there living near the National Park). The plane was about halfway to Sydney when they ran into the smoke.
My father went to Melbourne as the only choice back to Oz.
20
Why does it matter what burnt when the blind focus is on area burnt?
In terms of human life these fires have been kind/better managed compared to the 2009 debacle with 173 dead.
40
NASA have released a new report.
Study confirms climate models are getting future projections right.
The reason I’ve linked to the reddit post is because one of the author’s of the paper was answering questions in the comments section and has provided links to the paper itself, the data sets used, the source code, and tutorials on how to use it all.
10
The lies and exaggerations out of the so called scientific community just keeps getting worse and worse. I stopped reading scientific journals a long time ago when I was convinced they publish too much contradictory rubbish.
41
It’s about time. See my comment at #48.1.1.1.3 for the reason why the models are getting better.
But, don’t take NASA’s comment as `the good oil’ just yet. CIMP6 as at last month (last year) was still running too hot and causing some hair tearing.
But it’s coming.
00
i read this morning that Malcolm Turnbull is calling for an Australian Green New Deal. OK I get that he wants to make more money out of his investments and bring in international carbon trading but you would think the man would have enough diplomacy to wait until the smoke dies down. But not this reject. As Kerry Packer said don’t ever get between Malcolm and a bag of money.https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/01/miserable-ghost-turnbull-calls-for-aoc-style-australian-green-new-deal.html
70
Turnbull needs to go into exile
In New York in his lovely apartment
Why ?
Because his beachside mansion in Sydney
Is about to be flooded by rising sea levels !
YES, that’s a complete LIE
But dopey Turnbull might believe it & piss off
That would be a blessing for all of us !
40
I’d go easy on the 1974 comparison. It’s too easily shot down. It’s a lousy comparison, and you lose points making it. A lot of scrub burnt in to the west, but most of it was spinifex country, and there had been a good growing year previous. It’s just a distraction. You’re comparing roast meat and baked bread. They’re both cooked in a fire, yummy, but very different. Huge areas of spinifex burn every year. It’s like a fast smoulder. No one notices or cares.
50
As per 27.3
00
Interestingly, 1973-75 were fairly wet years.
https://i.postimg.cc/7Lvjs3qS/1973-75-rainfall.jpg
00
Just saw an interview with the bushfire building council on TV.
They said more than 90% of homes in fire zones were built before any bushfire building regulations.
And more than 90% of house destruction in bushfires is from embers.
I really think this will improve dramatically in the future with houses built virtually bushfire proof.
So those alarmists doomsayer will get it wrong again – the climate is not making things worse, bushfires will cause dramatically less destruction, and Australia will continue its increase in food production and living standards.
40
Now all we have to do is make homes on flood plains “flood proof”.
70
For new builds I think they changed the regulations to increase the height of the house and other measures.
https://thedesignfiles.net/2018/05/rosalie-plinth-house/
https://www.empiredesigns.com.au/tips-for-building-or-rebuilding-in-flood-zones
So I think there are measures that can help a lot, if people are of a mind.
10
Dont know about being of a mind. Once you have a bushfire attack level assessment done in VIC the house needs to meet the BAL requirements or no permit.
10
In my travels I see many homes in idyllic locations that are surrounded by gum trees next to a creek or river some of them most not .
Wouldn’t want to live in any of them , proximity of trees and bush to the house is surely a bigger factor than how the house is constructed and what it’s made of .
This is going to be a sticking point unless green tape is removed for those wanting decent firebreaks around the house and for those wanting to live among the gumtrees the code should be as strict as deemed necessary to preserve life .
This will make some building applications too expensive in heavily forested areas but so be it .
30
They have the 10/50 vegetation clearing rule in NSW fires zones.
No approval needed 10m for trees, 50m for shrubs.
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/1050-vegetation-clearing
I think this is reasonable and adequate for fire resistant homes.
20
Same in VIC but some dont do it
10
Old joke:
Businessman 1 meeting acquaintance at very expensive resort hotel “I couldn’t afford to stay here but I got a $250,000 insurance payout for a fire”.
Businessman 2 “same here, except I got $500,000 for a flood”.
Businessman 1 “Tell me, how do you start a flood?”
60
Not very old at all. Unfortunately it is probably a current reality.
I can just imagine the luvvies in their Mercs, Teslas, BMWs and Audis lining up for the “””Government””” handouts.
Let’s not forget, Governments have NO money; they just use ours.
00
Manage a dam in QLD
20
All of this seems strange.
Some unseen undertow sucking away the very essences of western civilization.
Most of the media, celebrities, politicians, bureaucrats, teachers, children, both subtly and not so subtly demanding a brave new world, a new social utopia, all with the grand stamp of approval from our “illustrious” universities.
Like some world wide universal social consciousness influencing the very psyche of humanity.
But there is no mystic revelation to this phenomena.
It is very real and insidious.
Agenda21 2030
It was seeded by some very “seedy” think tank groups and given birth to by the United Nations.
Agenda 21 v1.0 conceived at the United Nations Conference on Environment & Development
Rio de Janerio, Brazil, 3 to 14 June 1992
Agenda 21 v2.0 (2030) With V1.0 failing its goals, it got a rebirth 2016. With every leader of the world signing off to become its godparents.
It is not a set of rules, but methodology of implementation of an ideological framework.
This is not a joke, nor something to ignored.
This document is a super powered Mein Kampf/Communist Manafesto.
With consequences far worse.
It offers ideals, which any ration person would agree:
Elimination of hunger, violence, poverty, etc: and of course protection of the planet.
But that is the lambs coat, hiding the wolf of it true cause,
World control of everyone in every way.
At 5 years old, with 10 years until maturity none of its ideals are on track and most of which are worse than they were 5 years ago.
What is on track, suppression of disagreement, the dictatorship of local governments
And Smart cities.
Sounds nice, but in reality:
More like digital face recondition with access and benefits based on your civil compliance.
Social engineering.
-You cannot get a ticket on the urban transport to watch the football, because you eat 50g of red meat yesterday.-You will be confined to your unit, your front door will be locked for 24 hours as you used a plastic straw yesterday.-You have been deputed 5 social units for visiting undesirable website.While Climate and Environment is a large part of this agenda, it is but a pathway for its implementation.
The solution is to read and understand the implications and consequences of this document.
Harass every politician/councilor/bureaucrat you access and demand their position of this document.
Do not allow tour self to to fobbed off. You will receive many attacks, Be strong, you can beat then, as they are weak.
This is the “destroyers” agenda, their magnum opus, and it must be destroyed.
Download it here.
70
Julie Bishop signed us up to Agenda 3030.
Agenda 2030 is not some crackpot conspiracy theory but a very real UN scheme to dramatically reduce the standard of living of the Civilised world. The [snip] Australian foreign minister of the time, Julie Bishop signed us up to it.
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/julie-bishop/media-release/australia-welcomes-new-global-development-agenda
120
Correction 2030 not 3030.
10
And for their compliance, they get cushy jobs,
large incomes without effort.
60
And Bingo! The term resilient is used in every local govt announcement overnight.
70
Fortunately, the document is unsigned. Unfortunately, authors are anonymous.
40
There are a lot with their fingers in this pie.
Like a thousand chefs creating one meal, it has no taste.
What remains is the is the overarching ‘global to local’ backdoor methodology of control.
:
Among others, Maurice Strong, the Secretary General of the 1992 United Nations Earth Summit in Rio, was a big player in the birth of this document.
Quotes from Strong addressing the Earth Summit.
10
Do you really think “research” is needed into why arsonists light fires?
Catch them and punish them.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/bushfires-arsonist-study-key-to-snuffing-out-hostile-acts/news-story/3e8b0680ba75c98220e7d63cba247ab2?fbclid=IwAR1c2S9420g8nC1xarOwD2hQetxWU7CMCskosley9YwLmHmtG1QjuHgAnMg
40
They’re dissembling, hoping Arson will wash out of the News Cycle.
I’d like to see interviews with people fighting Bushfires, who saw Arsonists lighting fires.
Why aren’t these people on Television telling their stories?
40
The will just be from the usual grievance groups, with the usual troubled childhood and drug problems , which will draw the usual hugs and token “punishment” No consequences.
10
The goss from the psychs is that arsonists cannot be reformed.
The only way to keep them from reoffending is to keep them locked up…… heads on likes would work, too.
20
Why is Venus so hot?
Conventional wisdom is that it is due to the erroneously named “greenhouse effect”.
Is this the real reason and where is the proof?
What if Venus had a nitrogen atmosphere with the same amount of gas? What temperature would it be then?
What about adiabatic auto-compression? See e.g. YouTuber 1000frolly Phd https://youtu.be/1Y_n283fYbc .
20
The black body average temperature of Venus (that is the temperature with a completely transparent atmosphere) would be around 55°C. But the surface temperature is about 460°C. The atmospheric pressure is near 100 times that of Earth and the composition is around 96% carbon dioxide, 3.5% nitrogen with trace gasses such as sulfur dioxide. Proof? Venus Express and the Akatsuki Venus Climate Orbiter are currently investigating the planet and have identified a proportion of the atmosphere is a rare on Earth CO2 isotope that is a far more effective as greenhouse gas.
13
I know the conventional explanation is that it is the erroneously named “greenhouse” effect but I would like to see proof that this is the mechanism.
10
Earth’s black body temperature is -23°C. We know that what keeps it at a reasonable temperature where water exists in all three phases is the greenhouse effect. We can measure incoming solar energy, reflection and infrared re-radiation and the energy retransmitted back to the ground by excited atmospheric molecules. We can also calculate the same effect by satellite measurements for Venus. Where adiabatic compression is concerned the atmosphere is effectively a zero sum game. It is at equilibrium with respect to gravity compression. With warm air rising and displacing cooler air downwards atmospheric energy balances out. Earth’s energy sources are primarily solar with minor terrestrial contribution.
12
And nothing to do with CO2 as a special component of the atmosphere.
20
It’s not global warming.
Or CO2.
10
Mercury.
Venus.
Earth.
Mars.
Jupiter.
Saturn.
U……
And so on.
Gee, it’s cold out here.
10
Thanks for invoking me. If you are feeling the cold, put on a warm layer.
11
I appreciate that you do not understand what black body temperature is. Look it up to understand why simple distance from the sun does not explain temperatures. A week or so ago you indulged in personal abuse calling me uneducated, which let us just say is erroneous. Yet you espouse this absurd belief that greenhouse gasses and in particular CO2 (which is an inefficient greenhouse gas but there is comparatively an awful lot of it) do not impact temperature and that humans are not responsible for the recent, massive rise in CO2 partial pressure. You are demonstrably wrong on both counts and I am unsure whether this is due to simple ignorance or alternatively, troll like behavior.
14
Your absurd belief that atmospheric CO2 can cause warming is conjectural unproven nonsense.
Warming by atmospheric CO2 has never been observed or measured anywhere on the planet.
I’m sure you can provide actual empirical proof if you think it has.
The rise in atmospheric CO2 has been only around 10-15% human sourced
You can go carrying-on about natural solar forced temperature rise causing areas of cold land to out-gas methane and CO2, and then blame the HIGHLY BENEFICIAL rise in atmospheric CO2 on just humans.
Anyway, we all await your empirical proof of warming by atmospheric CO2. 😉
10
ps I am not unsure that your comments are due to simple ignorance.
20
Hello Brian,
I don’t remember that previous comment but.
Where do I start: O.K. Black bodies.
You appear to be a hook, line and sinker kind of guy if you believe that quoting so called “black body” temperatures for planets has any significant meaning.
It’s just something that the glitterati of the true believers use to make it sound important but they don’t have a clue what it means.
A black body is a theoretical concept which almost exclusively requires “tuning” when used in the real world.
Additionally, the hype and histrionic behaviour surrounding CO2 is all based on the so called gymnastics of the weakest surviving vestige of energy that was emitted by the Sun.
Finally, CO2 doesn’t act as a greenhouse gas until above an altitude of 11,000 metres or so, where it trickles the last remnants of solar energy back out to be lost in deep space.
Forever.
Get an education.
KK
20
well that was a load of nothin’
15
Your comments always are, Gee Aye.
EMPTY !
Sad you don’t have the mental capacity to comprehend KK’s post.
10
As Gosh Yes says, “plenty o’ nothin”.
Next he’ll be telling people about how you just take a few “values” and plug them straight into the Stephan and Boltzman equation and out pops your answer. It must be true because he’s seen global warming proponents do it; and they have PHds just like him.
If only it was that simple.
KK
10
Sorry, that should be PhDs.
10
I regret that the rubbish you and Andy post Keith set a new record for inanity. It is obvious that neither of you have any science related education, knowledge or ability and it is impossible to conduct a logical discussion with trolls. However for your edification the absorption and re-radiation of heat (infrared radiation) by CO2 was first demonstrated empirically by John Tyndall in 1859, but I guess that 160 years is simply not long enough for the information to flow to your level. Over that 160 years research has provided a comprehensive understanding of the mechanism and efficiency of CO2 as a greenhouse gas and the correlation of CO2 to the infrared energy budget from surface to top of atmosphere. The argument is not whether CO2 is a greenhouse gas or that increased partial pressure will contribute to increasing the planets temperature, but rather just what the level of impact and the actual affect will be. Well apart from a couple on this blog looking for a new village.
Keith’s statement that CO2 suddenly decides to act as a greenhouse gas at 11,000 metres and then directs all re-radiated energy out into space is so absurd that in the past it would have been taken up by Monty Python. No there is a serious lack of education and indeed applied common sense here, but it resides with Keith and Andy.
14
Hi Brian,
here are some links that Keith will ignore
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/09/25/papers-on-laboratory-measurements-of-co2-absorption-properties/
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/02/18/papers-on-co2-temperature-correlation/
https://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/04/19/simple-observational-proof-of-the-greenhouse-effect-of-carbon-dioxide/
05
Gee Aye.. really ?
1. Yes we know CO2 is a radiative gas..
nothing in the first link shows anything to do with measured warming FAIL
2. Correlation.. you mean like this.. many thing have spurious short term correlations with rising CO2. FAIL !!!
Third link . nothing to do with any measured warming.. FAIL
20
Brian, what can I say.
Blog clogger, yes, but worse for you is that you have completely exposed yourself as an uneducated stooge.
The only question left to answer is whether you are being paid to disrupt or whether you are a headless free range stooge brought to a heightened level of indignation by the fayque education/media duopoly run by our political masters from all sides of politics.
They are all skimming!
KK
30
Brian , I regret the whole load of unscientific, unprovable, unmeasured gaff that you have just posted.
So glad that you think a glass jar represents your atmosphere. !
Reality is rather different. 😉
Measured impact would be indistinguishable from zero.
Waiting for empirical evidence that atmospheric CO2 causes any warming.
And waiting, and waiting !
Seems you haven’t got passed your 1859 understanding of the atmosphere.
Do try sometime, if you have the capability to actually learn.
40
Brian, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is 0.041%, i.e. almost but not quite nothing.
If you actually think that amounts to “… an awful lot of it … “, then you have indeed proven beyond any doubt that you’re an uneducated ignoramus.
Oh my goodness! Partial-pressures are a gas’s contribution to the total atmospheric pressure, so a partial-pressure does not exist and has no meaning at all with out the context of the proportions of it with respect to all other gaseous partial-pressures within the bulk atmosphere. A rise in CO2 concentration from 0.027% up to 0.041% is anything but a “massive” rise in CO2 partial-pressure, with respect to the remaining 99.959% of the atmosphere’s total pressure.
Splashing about terms like partial-pressure of CO2 is ostentatious BS, and was a fundamentally perverse and dishonest attempt to pretend that CO2 is a major component of the atmosphere when it’s actually almost not present. In fact CO2 partial-pressure has been so dangerously low that plants were in effect starving, which means the entire boita was starving as a result.
Now the planet is 15% greener! But according to non-objective religiously driven chumps like you this is a bad thing for the planet?
The theory here that’s relevant is: Is CO2 is capable of raising global temp much and is CO2 actually doing it?
The natural temperature rise from the Little Ice Age since 1750, strongly suggests CO2 has done next to nothing, thus far. Plus it was as hot, or hotter in the 1930s, than now, when the bulk of that CO2 still had not been released yet! How could it get hotter in the 1930s, from natural causes, then cool for decades, from natural causes, until the start of the 1980s, even as CO2 output rose sharply?
Obviously the MINUSCULE amount of CO2 in the atmosphere did almost but not quite nothing.
And why is it presumed not feasible that all warming seen since ~1980 can’t also be due to a natural warming process? Why is there zero room for objective doubt about the mere claim that a correlation with a minuscule rise in CO2 must be responsible?
/crickets!
But this is the best Climate-Science™ can come up with? After all the billions invested, or rather totally wasted, on this absurd farce claiming to be ‘science’? All they have are ridiculous falsified models that can not replicate the Hiatus? And does not reflect the warming we see from ENSO? … phft!
Time-wasting, money-wasting garbage, pretending to be ‘sciencey‘.
20
You’d think this would teach Morrison and the ‘liberals’ a few lessons, but apparently not:
@realDonaldTrump: “95% Approval Rating in the Republican Party, a record. 53% Approval Rating overall (can we add 7 to 10 percent because of the Trump “thing?”). Thank you!”
40
Doesn’t mean much, Americans are notoriously stupid.
Case in point:
Richard Nixon won 49 of the 50 Stated in November 1972, by August 1974 he had resigned in
disgrace, to avoid being Impeached in the House and Convicted in the Senate.
14
thanks for the non sequitur, doesn’t mean much (anything).
Oh, but incidentally, Menzies was prime minister of Australia from 1949-1966 doing the same as trump: appealing to the interests of ordinary ‘non-elite’ citizens.
52
Funny, I don’t recall Menzies allowing Illegal Immigrants to flood into Australia and destroy
Union Rates of Pay, as well as the employment prospects for Blue Collar workers.
23
Ah, but we’re learning–we didn’t elect the wicked witch.
71
Pretty dumb generalisation, not born out by reality.
30
Updated 9 Jan: SMH: Andrew Forrest clarifies climate change stance after $70 million bushfire donation
By Hamish Hastie
West Australian iron ore magnate Andrew Forrest has moved to clarify his stance on climate change after pointing to arson as a big contributor to this summer’s devastating fire season…
At a press conference, Mr Forrest said that, while he did not want to get political, global warming was part of the reason for the devastation but “the biggest part” was arsonists.
In a statement issued later in the day, Mr Forrest said he “unequivocally” believed climate change was real and he accepted the warming of our planet was a “primary cause of the catastrophic events”.
“I do not want people to think that criminal behaviour, while reprehensible, is the main reason for the devastation this bushfire season,” he said.
“Arson may be responsible for starting fires in some cases, but it is not the reason the fires have reached the proportions they have through this season and it is not the reason they have continued for so long.”…
The remaining $50 million will go towards a $500 million project gathering experts to develop a “globally relevant national blueprint” for fire and disaster resilience, including new approaches to mitigate bushfires.
Led by former CSIRO data boss ***Adrian Turner, the project would include looking at climate change, mental health, science and technology, environmental conservation, water security and land management.
Mr Forrest said the blueprint could be used by countries around the world and one of the primary focus areas would be climate change…
Mr Turner said there was no question that climates were varying and a big part of the contributor during this fire season was the dry fuel load, which was directly related to climate…
10 Jan: news.com.au: People criticise billionaire’s $70m donation to the bushfire crisis
Billionaire Andrew Forrest has offered up a bucketload of money towards the bushfire recovery, but that didn’t stop people criticising him.
by Stephanie Bedo
He was universally praised for his whopping $70 million donation but that hasn’t stopped people jumping in with criticism…
…Brisbane Greens Councillor Jonathan Sri said it was just a PR exercise.
“This supposed $70 million donation to bushfire relief is chump change to him,” he wrote on Facebook…
“A pensioner with $1000 in the bank who donates 50 cents to bushfire victims is making a far bigger sacrifice and showing far more generosity than Andrew Forrest.”
Many others took to social media to express views, some questioning where the money was going, with a chunk of it being channelled back into Mr Forrest’s own foundation…
Mr Forrest said he hoped to raise $500 million through a global campaign to establish a long-term bushfire research project…
Later he clarified his stance on climate change after first pointing to arson as a major contributor to the bushfire season.
He said while global warming was part of the reason for the devastation, “the biggest part” was arsonists.
In a statement issued later in the day, Mr Forrest said he “unequivocally” believed climate change was real and he accepted the warming of our planet was a “primary cause of the catastrophic events”…
***2 Aug 2019: ComputerWorld: Data61 CEO Adrian Turner to depart
by George Nott
The chief executive officer of CSIRO’s Data61, Adrian Turner, is stepping down from the role after four years…
In Data61’s first year, Turner’s priority was stability for its scientists, who had faced months of uncertainty, constant funding cuts and looming job losses.
Since then the group has become a key player in security research; particularly confidential computing, trustworthy systems and distributed systems security…
As well as cyber security, Turner focused Data61’s research heft on key areas of what he considered “competitive advantage” including smart cities, data driven health and monitoring the environment…
During Turner’s tenure, Data61 has grown to more than 1100 staff, including some 400 resident PhD students…
Dr Larry Marshall, chief executive of CSIRO thanked Turner for his efforts…
https://www.computerworld.com/article/3476886/data61-ceo-adrian-turner-to-depart.html
10
expect no “Green” criticism of this billion-dollar spend!
11 Jan: NYT Michael Bloomberg Is Open to Spending $1 Billion to Defeat Trump
The Democratic presidential candidate said he would spend big even if the nominee was someone he had sharp differences with, like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Mr. Bloomberg’s plans would effectively create a shadow campaign operation for the general election, complete with hundreds of organizers in key battleground states and a robust digital operation, ready to be inherited by the party nominee — regardless of who that nominee may be.
Already, Mr. Bloomberg has spent more than $200 million on advertising, putting him on pace to spend by early March about the same as what President Barack Obama’s campaign spent on advertising over the course of the entire 2012 general election. If Mr. Bloomberg fails to win the nomination, future spending would be redirected toward attacking Mr. Trump…
His spending, entirely self-funded, has meant that though Mr. Bloomberg meets the polling requirement for the party debates, he does not meet the donor qualifications for participating…
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/11/us/politics/michael-bloomberg-spending.html
10
Australian Wildfires Were Caused by Humans, Not Climate Change
“Alarmists have been quick to blame climate change for the recent, horrific fires in Australia and California. Although human actions do bear a large share of the blame for the scale of this ongoing tragedy, the cause is primarily bad management policies, not dreaded climate change. Governmental decisions, made under pressure from environmental groups, have made what would normally be big fires into hellish conflagrations.
…
Australia has been ready to explode for years. David Packham, the former researcher at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Australia, warned in a 2015 article in the Age that fire fuel levels had climbed to their most dangerous levels in thousands of years. He noted this was the result of “misguided green ideology.”
…
In Australia, there was a huge fire in the province of Western Australia in 1962, which led to a decades-long campaign of intense prescribed burning. At its height, from 1963 to around 1985, very little was burned by wildfires, but as more and more pressure mounted to suppress this practice, more and more of Western Australia was burned over, as shown dramatically in this graphic.”
https://cei.org/content/australian-wildfires-were-caused-humans-not-climate-change
40
BOM released diagrams showing the 12-month mean temperature for Australia for every year since 1910.
https://au.yahoo.com/news/maps-of-australia-dating-back-to-1910-reveal-alarming-weather-pattern-060149650.html
1910 was probably a good year to start such a series. If they started in the 1880s or 1890s the series could have shown something different
70
Yes. By deleting data from before 1910 because it didn’t suit their political agenda they changed what was a slight cooling trend into a warming trend.
70
Further DeBunking of the “97% Consensus” myth
https://www.iceagenow.info/debunking-the-97-percent-myth-great-video/
And, Yes, I do hope that PF weighs in. Ought to be very funny.
30
Professor Ian Plimer does a good shred of the 97% consensus myth .
21
There is no ice on his fence boundary.
lol
30
Any warming effect from atmospheric CO2 HAS NOT been “known” since the 1800’s
Arrhenius made a conjecture, Tindale made a conjecture.
Neither actually proved any affect from atmospheric CO2.
The atmosphere cannot be represented by a glass jar.
It is not “known” or scientifically proven even now.
Warming by atmospheric CO2 has never been observed or measured in this planet’s atmosphere.
This lukewarmerism has to stop, because it plays right into the hands of the anti-science of AGW.
71
Interesting point there Andy.
Every spectroscopist since Tindall has seen the IR absorbed and has also assumed warming. It doesn’t happen, as was pointed out by Einstein back in 1919, and has been pointed out yet again by Drs Ronan and Michael Connolly (after looking at 4 million (or so) results from weather balloons).
20
Prof. William Happer, the world’s leading atmospheric physicist, was quite clear on why CO2 molecules in the Troposphere never radiate energy – they simply don’t have sufficient time to do so, being bombarded by other gas molecules that release any absorbed energy via kinetic transfer.
10
From you link
Only 3,146 scientists responded to the survey. Of those 3,146 responses, 90% said yes, temperatures had risen since the Little Ice Age. Only 82% said ‘yes’ to the second question, that human activity was a significant contributing factor.
Where do you get your widely wrong ideas from, Alan Jones?
27
So it was a MEANINGLESS survey.
Thanks for the confirmation.
10
No indication whatsoever that the responders were in any way representative of anything.
And if its the questions I think it was, I would have answered yes to the first one.
Thank goodness we live in the Modern Slightly Warm Period and not still back in the Little Ice Age.!!
10
The warming of the atmosphere is observable, measurable, and does not brook denial.
However, attributing this warming to mankind’s emissions of CO2 is as ludicrous now as it was in the early 1970s, when I first came across the suggestion.
(I was then looking into the likelihood of a coming Ice Age, as the Missus was perturbed by a TV Documentary suggesting the same. I was able to reassure her that it was Tosh.
My introduction to the wonders of Climate Science.)
20
What do you understand by the term Scientific Consensus? Because I guarantee that it is not what you think it is
you might consider further reading
17
what it means is a consensus of experts who hold “special knowledge in a field of skill, competence, or factual knowledge.” (Walton, Appeal to Expert Opinion, p77).
the relevant field for a consensus of experts as to agw would be atmospheric physicists (notice how the papers you cite do not include this criterion).
an argument from expert opinion also requires that the field is settled.
the field of agw is not settled (there is a range of opinions as to the atmospheric effect of co2, it is an unproven hypothesis not a settled opinion).
as such no argument from expert opinion holds.
the ‘consensus’ is irrelevant.
60
I knew you would get it wrong
08
thanks for your usual unsubstantiated assertion, but it would appear that cook et al and his pals have got this wrong, as they have catastrophically failed to pay any attention to the logical requirements of an argument from expert opinion.
and you have failed to add anything to their failure.
so, i thank you for that.
60
I gave you bathe definition and it is not anything you asserted, troll boy
09
Hmmm, I’m not sure what a “bathe definition” is, but it probably has about as much to do with the definition of an argument from expert opinion as you cited at link.
to reiterate:
(1) a consensus is used as part of an argument from expert opinion.
(2) to be assessed as valid an argument from expert opinion must include a consensus of experts qualified in the field on which the opinion is offered. Experts giving opinion outside their field is not a valid argument (eg. a paleontologist giving an opinion on the atmospheric effect of co2 would be stepping outside his field).
(3) to be assessed as valid an argument from expert opinion requires a field of ACTUALLY settled opinion.
(4) claiming that warming has been observed and detailing effects of said warming is not evidence that the warming is induced by man man ‘climate change’.
30
You gave a totally meaningless definition.
It had no substance because all sets are built from essentially the same corrupted data source.
Sparse, irregularly spaced, highly tainted and corrupted data from goodness knows what quality sites, smeared over thousands of square km it is not in the least bit applicable to.
Its a total MESS, and should have no part at all in any climate science.
Why do you choose to remain ignorant of such basic facts ?
30
And consensus certainly is NOT evidence of anything except group-think
It requires actual real science to back it up.
And you don’t have any.
40
yes, that is what a settled field of opinion would be.
20
Hilarious that you still think “consensus” has anything to do with science
But in-built ignorance of science has that effect.
20
Its accepted wisdom that the atmosphere has warmed slightly since the great climate shift of 1976, yet there isn’t a consensus on the cause. The plateau in world temperatures for two decades needs to be resolved, but on the evidence its fairly clear that an over active sun last century caused the temp spike and a quiet sun since 2000 has dampened down expectations that CO2 is involved.
10
heard this on 2GB yesterday or day before. with all the MSM busily occupied with debunking arson’s role in the current bushfires, it seems none wanted to report any arson story, except for a couple of Murdoch papers, which are behind paywall:
MyPoliceQueensland: Fire investigation, Proserpine
myPolice on Jan 10, 2020 @ 8:02am
Detectives are investigating the cause of a building fire in the Whitsundays this morning.
Police were called to an industrial business at the corner of Sugar Mill and Main streets in Proserpine around 3am where a building on the premises was found well involved.
Initial investigations suggest unknown offenders have attended the address around midnight and entered a two-storey office block, where they have lit a fire inside.
The office building has sustained significant damage from the fire, which is not believed to have spread to nearby structures.
A crime scene was declared at 4:30am and anyone with information about the incident is urged to contact police.
https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/news/2020/01/10/fire-investigation-proserpine/
Press Reader: Fire damages sugar mill stores building
Daily Mercury – 11 Jan 2020
by ASHLEY PILLHOFER AND DEBORAH FRIEND
TOOLS, uniforms and other consumables were destroyed in an early morning fire that severely damaged the stores building at Proserpine Mill.
Whitsunday Criminal Investigation Branch Detective Liam Henry said the interior of the large concrete shed was severely damaged at the industrial building on Sugar Mill and Main streets in Proserpine.
Investigations indicated offenders had gained entry to a two-storey office block about midnight but it wasn’t until 3am that police were called to reports of a fire inside the building.
Three Queensland Fire and Emergency Services crews attended about 3.15am and were able to contain the fire to the interior of the building by about 3.40am.
Firefighters in breathing apparatus continued to fight the blaze from inside.
Crews began dampening down by 4.10am and had fully extinguished the fire in the gutted building by 5am.
Queensland Ambulance Service paramedics were put on standby at the incident but were not required to treat any patients. A crime scene was declared about 4.30am.
Det Henry said the fire was considered suspicious.
“The flames went up into the timber roof and it is severely damaged inside – no items could be salvaged,” Det Henry said.
Wilmar Mackay regional operations manager Craig Muddle yesterday said access to the affected area was restricted due to the ongoing investigation.
“But we believe there has been significant damage to the stores building,” he said.
“We will complete a full damage assessment, once authorities finalise their investigations and hand the area back to us.”
https://www.pressreader.com/australia/daily-mercury/20200111/281599537438153
20
Please see my post above.
What is the true reason Venus is so hot and what is the proof of whatever mechanism is proposed?
If it is a “greenhouse” effect where is the proof?
20
I watched a repeat of the PBS Nova program “Inner Worlds” a few days ago which talks about Venus. According to this program, in its early years, Venus had a lot of water and was much cooler than it is today and was possibly conducive to the formation of life, but as the sun aged and got warmer, the water evaporated causing a runaway greenhouse effect helped by CO2 and methane emitted by its active volcanoes. The planet has very little water vapor in its atmosphere today, so I assume almost all of it boiled away into space.
Is this the true reason Venus is so hot? Perhaps, though I have also heard that Venus never had much water and was always very hot. I don’t think anyone really knows what the true reason is.
20
I answered your post above.
10
Venus has a very dense atmosphere. It is thought that it is the atmospheric pressure from that density which controls the atmospheric temperature.
[ Using the math from here (Nikolov and Zeller’s paper):
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317570648_New_Insights_on_the_Physical_Nature_of_the_Atmospheric_Greenhouse_Effect_Deduced_from_an_Empirical_Planetary_Temperature_Model
will get you very close to the actual Venusian atmospheric temperature.}
I am not saying that N & Z’s approach is correct but if you look through the equations you might just find what you’re looking for.
10
OK the blog can stand down – ScoMo has got it.
David Speers interview convinced me. Won’t hurt a bit.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-vows-to-go-even-further-on-emissions-in-response-to-fires-20200112-p53qqd.html
25
Not sure what you’re going on about , I’ve heard him say meet or beat the Paris target before many times .
01
Steady there PM. Don’t run off the rails. Just wait 10 years to see if All is ok
10
‘He said the commission should look at the operational responses, the question of overlapping federal and state responsibilities and the role of climate change.
“It has to be done in the acknowledgment, not to seek an answer to, but in the acknowledgement of the climate we now live in and how climate change has affected that,” he said. “That is not an issue of dispute, that is an issue of acknowledgement.”
Good, the PM is looking at adaption to climate change as opposed to further emissions reduction. He recognises that climate changes without the assistance of CO2, the evidence is overwhelming, but he’ll let the inquiry decide. In this way he can avoid MSM abuse and regain popularity.
21
Uh oh…..
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/demand-for-answers-over-mass-blackout-that-left-100000-homes-in-the-dark/ar-BBYQL2B?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=mailsignout
“The state opposition is demanding answers over a mass blackout that saw over 100,000 Western Australian homes lose power on Friday evening.
“The outage was sparked when a Kwinana generator failed, and the ABC reported firefighters responded to reports of a smoking turbine at the Leath Road power facility just before 9pm.
“The fault then caused two other failures at Badgingarra Wind Farm, and Worsley Power Station.
“The Australian Energy Market Operator said in a statement the multiple generator outages meant WA lost about 470 megawatts from the power system, which triggered a short period of “load shedding
““Mr McGowan needs to enlighten us as to why was there insufficient back-up generation available, why system frequency could not be maintained and why the plant failed, despite a recent performance audit.
““This widespread blackout is a disturbing omen, especially given the national energy operator AEMO warned the McGowan Labor Government that blackouts will become commonplace without substantial and immediate investment.”
“”What we’ve been told … was that it was a generator bearing issue – the generator sits and rotates and it needs a bearing to sit and rotate. One of those had an issue and that’s unfortunately now resulted in that generator tripping off quite quickly.
“”We run what’s called ancillary services, special reserves – they’re available for when a large generator falls off.
“”We had the required reserves on last night, we just happened to lose the largest generator and then a couple of other generators fell off at the same time and as a result of that our reserves weren’t sufficient.
20
I’m surprised about any frequency issue, because AEMO stated that the frequency was restored to normal in 8 minutes. I still believe that the unplanned generator trip couldn’t be covered in time by the gas peaker units, hence the load shedding. Kwinana is not an old site, and this outage had nothing to do with older coal-powered generators that still continued producing power.
10
Attention:
*******
AndyG55
*******
Six years ago, in January 2014, you agreed to a bet about the future of warming – you said:
I agreed that if temperature started to trend down from that point on, then I would revise my thinking on the strength of the evidence of global warming. In opposite case, you agreed you would revise your thinking.
Source: http://joannenova.com.au/2014/01/akademik-shokalskiy-were-those-careless-risks-in-dangerous-but-foreseeable-conditions/#comment-1365432
You suggested 2-5 years would suffice. It has now been 6. Referring to the latest data from UAH, I have marked the point where the bet was made:
https://i.imgur.com/C1OBiMi.jpg
It’s clear the trend in temperature has been up, not down. You have lost the bet, so will you honour your agreement to revise your thinking?
11
I just noted in the image I posted I said “Dec 2014” … the correct data point should be “Dec 2013” as we made the bet in early Jan 2014… sorry for the confusion.
You can see the relevant raw data for UAH here: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
10
This El Nino effect has certainly been hanging on, hasn’t it.
Can you explain why?
So sad little mat STILL doesn’t understand the effect of El Ninos.
Refusal to learn !
Now, where’s your evidence that El Ninos are caused by human released atmospheric CO2 ?
You never were able to provide any. Empty.
Perhaps you should take a look at tropical cloud cover, the decrease in that was unexpected. (must be CO2, hey 😉 )
Try to get some sort of basic understanding where the beneficial warming has been coming from.
But that warming is starting to subside.
La Nina soon.
22
AndyG55, why are you trying to change the subject? The bet was not about El Nino, it was whether the temperature would trend up or down.
The temperature has trended up since the start of 2014. You lost that bet. It reflects on you integrity that you haven’t been able to admit that yet. So I’ll ask again:
1. Do you accept that your prediction of downward trend from the start of 2014 was incorrect?
2. What year did you form the view that global cooling was imminent?
3. How many more years of rising temperatures would it take you to rethink your view that “global temperatures will drop soon”.
If you believe this stuff as much as you say then you shouldn’t have a problem answering these questions. And if you can’t, I have to assume you’re arguing in bad faith. In that case, I’ll see you again next year.
12
What does it mean to welsh on a bet?
To swindle a person by not paying a debt or wager: welsh on a bet. 2. To fail to fulfill an obligation. [Origin unknown.] welsh′er n.
Synonyms
swindler scammer chiseler gouger grifter welsher defrauder chiseller
01
Very scientific.
00
No-one has yet provided even the lightest evidence of warming by human released CO2.
End of story..
UTTER FAILURE on all your behalves. !
Since you have ZERO SCIENCE to back up anything you say,
… there is no logical or scientific reason I should change my mind.
10
Welch.
00
YAWN !!
We had an El Nino, Global temperatures are now dropping.
La Nina some time end of this year
Temperatures over Australia have not risen this century.
21
And the global temperature is STILL well below what it has been for most of the Holocene. !
Enjoy the Modern Slightly Warm Period while it lasts
10
From Notrickszone.com:
Ocean Cycles At Work: Data From Japan Meteorological Agency Show Northern Coastal Europe November COOLING!
(https://notrickszone.com/2019/12/15/ocean-cycles-at-work-data-from-japan-meteorology-agency-show-northern-coastal-europe-november-cooling/).
It’s starting …
00
Oops: this is a response to PF at 44.2.2.1.
This is between Andy and Matt. Not PF nor me. So keep out of it Fitzroy.
00
Andy, you suggested the time period and accepted the bet.
Each year the trend is up, you respond with “global temperatures will drop soon”… that’s what’s getting boring.
Examples
2017:
2018:
Stop running away. It’s time to man up.
13
Getting adny to admit that he was wrong? Global cooling will affect Hades before that happens.
We can Also add el gordo’s litany of failed predictions as well
312
Actually Hades is fire and ice.
For example, Lake Cocytus is the frozen lake of the ninth circle where those who committed treachery against God are punished.
31
You have to put forward some actual science.
You have FAILED UTTERLY
21
‘We can Also add el gordo’s litany of failed predictions as well.’
I predicted well in advance the La Nina which flooded Brisbane, but on the prediction of global cooling its not an easy road. The hiatus in world temperatures for two decades now only needs five years of La Nina activity to bring temperatures down.
If we accept Ian Wilson’s lunar hypothesis, then we might expect a weak Modoki El Nino this year, followed abruptly by a strong La Nina at Xmas.
I was surprised to see the North Atlantic Oscillation stay positive while the sun is blank, its an inexact science.
21
Brisbane was flooded because the Wivenhoe Dam gates weren’t opened when they
should have been.
A Court in N.S.W. just awarded the victims $3,000,000,000 for that negligence.
20
Yeah, human error for the Brisbane floods, but the drenching is down to a strong La Nina.
20
You do know the El Nino effect is still there, don’t you.
No La Nina yet.
Stop showing your ignorance
Wait for the La Nina.
Watch the temperature drop.
21
Another widely inaccurate post
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
it is, at best, in neutral
27
True, but the Indian Ocean Dipole has also gone neutral which means that the combination, effectively a resonance that caused the hot, dry, early onset of the fire season has gone. I appreciate that you would prefer the drought to be permanent so that you can lecture on global warming but while with such influences there is a lag period, things are getting better.
30
So you agree, no La Nina yet
Thanks.
Interesting watching the effect of the huge 2016 El Nino ocean energy release gradually dissipating in the Arctic.
Also, noted you STILL haven’t produced any empirical evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2
There is PLENTY of evidence of many other warming effects though.
Solar energy integral is still very high.
Cloud decrease over the tropics.
You know, things that are actually REAL and MEASURED.
20
So funny.
You post a link that say ENSO has only just returned to neutral.
Its as if you were trying to reinforce what I just said. Thanks. 🙂
Just because ENSO is now neutral, doesn’t mean the effect of that big 2016 El Nino has disappeared.
Oh look ENSO still positive hanging in on the border of neutral and El Nino.
20
Or a more recent version
Currently just on the border of EL Nino and neutral
Maybe La Nina by the end of the year, as I said.
Won’t that be exciting for you. 😉
20
Door.
Matt.
00
https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/01/21/new-study-modern-warming-was-driven-by-primarily-natural-factors-global-cooling-has-now-begun/
Those who do not understand that El Nino is a release of energy from the oceans into the atmosphere need to go back and do some basic understanding of science.
41
Ok AndyG55, a different tack…
1. What year did you form the view that global cooling was imminent?
2. How many more years of rising temperatures would it take you to rethink your view that “global temperatures will drop soon”.
10
Global temperatures will drop next year, so when will you accept that ENSO is the temperature control knob and not CO2?
20
You say that every month
14
And I’ll keep on saying a strong La Nina this time next year will bring temperatures down.
Do you have an alternative forecast?
30
Crickets……
00
ENSO is still on the borderline of neutral and El Nino
Forecast is back to zero/neutral by the end of the year.
Then we will see.
10
Forgot link.
20
Did like climate models.. anyone’s guess which one is correct.. if any. !
Although at least these don’t PRETEND to look more than several months out.
10
So it’s either going to get warmer, or it’s going to get cooler, unless it stays roughly the same. Genius 🙂
20
Yep, climate science at its best 🙂
20
I would be careful about what temperature data set you use. Tony Heller has recently pointed out how that has also now been altered to suit the political agenda.
https://youtu.be/bOHrYY3yAGE
30
1. the null hypothesis is that warming (or cooling) is natural.
2. Anyone who contends that it is not must produce evidence to show it.
3. Looking at increasing and decreasing temperatures tells you nothing about its cause.
40
A couple of new posts up at “The Pointman”
https://thepointman.wordpress.com/
10
“I suffered for my music … now it’s your turn” – Protest Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfTlGMCeuDE
Vale Neil Innes.
Neil Innes, the English writer, comedian and musician – dubbed “The Seventh Python” – has died aged 75.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50948921
The Rutles (The Pre-Fab Four): Get up and go, from the film “Let it Rot”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amiBTezWKqQ
20
Fake News: “The idea that “greenies” … would oppose measures to prevent fires … is simply false.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/11/fake-news-the-idea-that-greenies-would-oppose-measures-to-prevent-fires-is-simply-false/
00
And we now know that that fake news is fake news .
10
Interesting paper
Drought in Australia due to internal variability of ENSO
So, NOTHING to do with atmospheric CO2
61
While a 7 year old article is good for fish wrapping, you could read this, from the same source, but more up to date
37
MODELS.. Read it FFS !!
Chimp5 no less. !!
So funny that you would even put forward that link.
41
I did read it and I also understood it. You should try it some time
38
So you MUST release it is a bunch of scientist wannabees playing computer games.. Right?
If you didn’t get that far, your comprehension is, as always, sadly lacking.
41
typo correction realise…
Except you are incapable of realizing anything that is actually REAL.
All you have is just fantasy play models and whacked-out fairy-tales.
41
And how’s your hunt for actual empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2 coming on?
Still at the black hole abyss stage ???
51
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0160412079900217
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003%3C0662:EDOCGC%3E2.0.CO;2
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/
15
LOL. Its as though you pluck links from the somewhere that you have never read or comprehended.. So Funny ! 😀
First one has zero evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2 its about possible effects of warming on glacier “Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer” FAIL.
Second one.. Yes we KNOW there has been some warming. Nowhere in the paper is there any evidence CO2 was the cause. Last sentence of summary says..”The possibility of solving the discovered contradiction between empirical data {temperature and rainfall} and model estimate needs to be further investigated”
Total and utter FAIL.
Third link, a whole heap of modelling links.. please show us which link has empirical data for warming by atmospheric CO2.. They are your links, you must know 😉 or not
Again.. a complete and utter failure
You really have to pick up your fantasy games. if you can. !
40
first link: “Empirical and theoretical evidence concerning the response of the earth’s ice and snow cover to a global temperature increase”
this appears to be talking about temperature increase, nothing to do with the cause of that increase.
second link: ” Empirical Data on Contemporary Global Climate Changes… New data are presented on the changes of mean global surface air temperature and annual precipitation over extratropical continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Global warming occurred during the last century with a mean trend of 0.5°C/100 years. It is shown that for the same period the annual precipitation over the land in the 35°–70°N zone increased by 6%. The observed variations of precipitation coincide with the results of general circulation modeling of doubled CO2 equilibrium climate change by sign but contradict by scale.”
this appears to be talking about temp and precipitation changes and the “the results of general circulation modeling”.
third link: “Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective… This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of individual extreme events.”
this appears to be a series of papers linking agw to extrme events.
you were asked for “empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2”
it would appear, therefore, that you have catastrophically failed to provide the information requested.
50
Last one is quite funny.. Its as though they have picked some slight above normal WEATHER events, and tried to attribute them to unproven warming by human released CO2 by using spurious computer models.
Fantasy computer games.
20
DLK, you will find that Peter has always been a catastrophic FAILURE at producing relevant evidence.
Its as though he has either not read his links,
or is so scientifically illiterate that he doesn’t comprehend what is actually in them.
Its a comment theme of his posts.
20
His evidence is apparently still at the very bottom of the abyss. ! 😀
20
I just read a random 4 of the links in the bottom one of PF’s link.
That’s 10 minutes I won’t waste again.
It really is just computer games wannabee scientists. !
20
Just noticed that in the Vinnikov paper, no correction is given for UHI effect.
Given that most of the sites used are likely to have small to severe Urban warming, it makes the whole temperature calculation highly dubious and very likely unrepresentative of the globe as a whole.
… unless of course you are calculating the average temperature of global cities,
… which has undoubtedly climbed significantly.
20
Why should he? CIMP 5 is for the dustbin along with CIMPS 1 – 4, CIMP6 is out (and it’s running too hot.)
Haven’t you read the memos?
The IPCC got a caning from some of the big US Universities back in 2014 or thereabouts (Princeton, Yale and Harvard were some of the names in there, IIRC). It’s been really interesting how the MSM hasn’t said `squeak’ about it. They (the Computer Modellers and the IPCC) now have to work with all the solar particulate radiation, like the Solar Wind. They were given the Solar Data database in 2017, and are having to work hard to bring it all into their models. Poor things. They’ve got to get it right for AR6 and that’s due out RSN.
Solar Cycle 5 is starting, cooling is starting, and Solar Cycle 26 in 2030 is, if Zharkova is correct, going to be AWOL which means it’s gonna get really cold. The Maunder Minimum (1645 – 1715 was over all, pretty cold with the coldest years around 1690.
10
“While a 7 year old article is good for fish wrapping, …”
If ‘years old’ is the gold standard for judging climate science, 1896 must stink like a paper-wrapped fish sitting in the sun for 124 years …
On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground
Svante Arrhenius
Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science Series 5, Volume 41, April 1896, pages 237-276.
https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
20
I’m very worried that the money making climate scam is unravelling before our eyes.
The prediction that we would have fewer but more powerful cyclones is under threat.
So far this summer is a lowish number but still within normal range but the intensities have been pathetic. If only the BOM would lower the categorisation of these cat 1’s into tropical storms then we’d be back to fewer and we just wait for a stronger cyclone to upgrade. That trick would fix the problem.
32
oh crap, that was meant for my dark-web illuminati group chat
42
Ahh!
I dunno.
I was watching the ABC weather report the other night. It seems Cyclones are ex cyclones (with emphasis on the last word in that phrase) longer than they were ever full blown cyclones. The one which ever so nearly formed off the NT was categorised to hit landfall as a high catastrophic Category 1 cyclone with damaging winds around the eye of 37KPH.
Tony.
100
Spot on Tony,
There seem to have been several cylones of the WA coast over the past week or so, which became Ex-cyclones even before they were Cyclones!
It certainly helps to get the number of recent cyclones up to where they really should be!
50
you guys are onto us. join with me to remind your comrades who are a bit confused and get angry because they think weak cyclones are being upgraded not realising that promoting this is actually detrimental to their argument. Or maybe they don’t have any idea what they are on about.
10
I am not sure what you are on about.
Please explain.
10
it’s a secret
just keep attributing every weather event for evidence of something and you’ll keep your comrades happy.
10
“just keep attributing every weather event for evidence of something “
You really are getting into this “climate scientist” meme, aren’t you. ! 😉
“Or maybe they don’t have any idea what they are on about.”
But they won’t let you in if you say things like that about them. !!
10
It’s most likely alcohol.
10
To GA @ #49
Watch the Solar Activity (Space Weather News). When there is a bump up in the Kp index to 4 or more (a mild geomagnetic storm) there could be a TC (Tropical Cycone) formed.
TCs are wound up by the Solar Wind (Cat 1 and Cat 2). While the sun is asleep and there are no sunspots, then the Solar Wind is calm and there are no Cyclones. When the SW gets lumps in it, (big Coronal Holes turning through) then a thunderstorm or two may get wound up into a Cyclone (like the few weak ones we’ve had so far). We’re about through Solar Minimum and SSC 25 is showing signs of getting started so next summer there should be some better ones for you. There will be some more over the rest of this summer but I’m picking they won’t be much. (Famous Last Words!) They need Solar Flares to become stronger (Cat 3 and upwards though fast Solar Wind with lumps in it and a small flare can create a Cat 3 TC. Not common tho’).
The planetary magnetic field is our `safety shield’ and it’s fading rather rapidly with that incoming geomagnetic excursion, so the solar effects are going to seem (or be) stronger than they otherwise would have been.
Cooling times also have lots of (bad) weather.
We’re heading for Interesting Times.
10
FYI
https://www.redpowermagazine.com/forums/topic/121995-since-the-joke-thread-is-gone-here%E2%80%99s-something-to-chuckle-at/page/60/?tab=comments#comment-1374973
10
QIIME? IS genetic research reduced to cookbook science?
I just came across a new science acronym. QIIME!
What does it mean? FIIK.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QIIME
It seems a bit like Climate Science Models.
20
Never heard of it, don’t know of it but if your last comment is serious then could it be another statistical/numerical model for … umm … genetic something?
10
Apart from some warming over NE Europe/Siberia in winter.. (danger! Will Robertson.. very scary)
And a bit over the Antarctic and in the Bight..
Can anyone see anything untoward on this map?
Looks like standard WEATHER patterns to me.
20
What the map DOES do, is emphasize that the fires in December were totally due to WEATHER patterns and dry built-up fuel loads.
20
You could try overlaying that map with this one and see if you can work out where the pushes and pulls will go.
[ https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/WMM/data/WMM2020/WMM2020_D_BoZ_MILL.pdf ]
Then compare with https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-163.61,-18.41,528 to see if you can match anything as coincident …
10
A question: Can you see any connection between the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode? Its just that they both slipped back to neutral at the same time.
10
I think your link is broken – points back here
30
OOPs
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2019/December2019/201912_map.png
20
ps.. thanks for the notification 😉
20
Seems overall more yellow, which would mean (slightly) warmer total average.
I guess it comes down to how the baseline is calculated to enabled the anomaly to calculated from it….and do we think that baseline is accurate.
10
With such a strong series of solar cycles in the latter half of last century, (strongest combined solar period in over 1000 years)
and a drop in tropical cloud cover,
it would be truly amazing if it hadn’t warmed a bit. !
We also have the AMO to consider (due to start trending downwards)
The PDO .. and ENSO .. slowly heading towards La Nina territory
The start of a series of weaker solar cycles (probably).
How much energy is still stored in the oceans from the strong solar cycles of last century, is the really big question.
Is there another El Nino to come, or are we heading into La Nina territory?
La Ninas tend to occur around 2 years after the end of a solar cycle.
As El G says, that is late this year to mid next year.
10
There is also this to be considered..
Note that seismic activity and the north pole movement are both lagged 2 years.
Not sure what such a close correlation means. Has me rather puzzled.
Basically all atmospheric warming since satellite data started has come from El Nino events.
CO2 cannot cause ocean warming, because it doesn’t stop evaporation or convection, and its weak mythical so-called back-radiation frequency cannot penetrate the ocean surface anyway.
So the ocean surface warming of the El Ninos is coming either from above, ie, the SUN
or maybe, partly from below.
20
All excellent discussion points and strictly on the science.
‘ ie, the SUN or maybe, partly from below.’
That is also my thinking and of course Ian Wilson’s lunar hypothesis is still in the mix, all these things maybe operating in tandem.
10
I’m sure there are some learned folks on this blog that can answer/point to answers to a few questions – my google-fu fails when I don’t really know the terms I’m looking for. Relating to the Milankovitch cycles…
Has the percentage difference in apparent solar output been calculated for the orbit eccentricity? ie, something 10% from highest to lowest point.
Where are we (roughly) in the 413k year cycle right now? Getting closer/warmer or cooler?
If I understand wikipedia correctly, the tilt is decreasing and will continue for another 9780 years. I didn’t quite follow the implication; does it mean the difference between summer and winter temps becomes less? i.e. warmer winters and cooler summers? Again, what’s the rough percentage difference between the two extremes (and then where we are now though I guess that’s easy to calculate once I know the extremes)?
Same thing for the wobble – percentage difference in the extremes and where we are now.
I guess what I’m trying to ascertain, is whether the solar ‘constant’ ~1368 watt/sqm is going up or down, and by how much?
30
To my knowledge, no one has linked the Milankovitch cycles to recent Climate Change, ie the last 2000 years.
20
disorganise @ #53:
Have you looked on youtube? I’ve seen some video discussions of the Milankovic cycles on there. One of them (if you choose the right one) may give you the info you need to be able to work something out for yourself.
20
disorganise
This is a bit elementary but should help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iA788usYNWA
One of the problems is that the cause is assumed to be explained entirely by Milakovitch cycles, yet there are periodic Ice Ages at roughly 130 million years. End Ordovician, End Carboniferous, End Jurassic** and present. This hints at an effect from cycles around the galaxy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#/media/File:Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.png
The other is that the long cycle has to be “adjusted” to 90 to 115 thousand years to fit, and then doesn’t match geological data (radioactive isotope dating). See Devi’s cave.
** not accurately an Ice Age (defined as permanent polar ice) but definitely cooler.
10
Thanks Graeme
Elementary is good 🙂 So overall general flattening of the difference between summer and winter.
and because less melting in summer, the planet is overall cooler.
00
A good question to ask when the Earth’s temperature record suggests that there have been three clearly defined ice age events, and recoveries, in the last half million years.
It’s curious that we have heard nothing from astrophysicists on this matter.
KK
10
_ 4 cycles in the last half million years but it all seems puny when set in the larger context:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Phanerozoic_Climate_Change.png
Humans and their predecessors have only been around for about 2 million years so it can be seen that the most recent changes aren’t much in the overall picture.
KK
00
This might help.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/19/a-deterministic-forecast-of-future-climate-changes/
10
Looks interesting.
KK
10
That outline link has to be the find of the month.
KK
10
Hi,
The link at el gordo’s post below is great. The only problem is that it is well detailed and could take some time to get it all sorted.
Still, the item we are all curious about, the end of the current interglacial is suggested to be just over four thousand years away.
The first graph is interesting in that it gives a guide to forces acting to explain sections of the graph. It shows about 50,000 years so it has left out several tens of thousands of years of routine cooling into the glacial maximum.
Worth a look.
KK
10
Check this from UAH. 95% of land area is at (30%) or above (65%) average. Over the oceans it breaks even.
How’s that warming
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2019/December2019/201912_map.png
10
fits with this graph… all that red
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2019/December2019/tlt_201912_bar.png
11
and it’s not even el Nino
11
Yes, still El Nino, on the borderline of neutral.
40
Its a Modoki El Nino.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=188.91,-4.21,530/loc=-166.440,-17.505
00
There was a weak El Nino set up in October and November, which was dissipating in December:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2020&month=01
00
Funny the effect that decreased tropical cloud,
and the series of strong solar cycles in the latter half of last century had, isn’t it. !
Anyone would think the Sun might actually provide lots of energy to the planet. 😉
40
Remember Andy that the lower troposphere is heavily influenced by the warming effect of the latent heat released as warm air with entrained water vapor rises and the water vapor condenses in clouds. This is one of the reasons that Europe had warm lower troposphere temperatures despite heavy precipitation causing massive flooding. But these same clouds then reflect solar radiation back into space providing a cooling effect. It is no wonder that the global warming models provide a good example of the garbage in garbage out principle.
30
It also depends what type of cloud and their elevations.
Climate models are totally useless on the main controllers of atmospheric temperature.
One also needs to remember that the only reason clouds are up there, is because they have done a whole heap of surface cooling already.
30
Your view of history is too short. UAH is just over 40 years.
Taking a longer term view we are in a goldilocks temperature zone right now.
Recent small changes are quite normal variation.
https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01b7c6dadeb8970b-pi
40
Human heat is different to natural heat though, natural planetary heating can raise the temp 15 degrees C and the planet blooms like crazy. But if it rises 1/2 degree C more due to fossil fuel use life on earth will be annihilated, and air-conditioner thermostats everywhere will cease to cope. If only humans were a natural part of the Earth’s ecology as well then the flora and fauna of the planet would not be constantly on the verge of annihilation every time we do anything. But alas, we are evil-incarnate that slipped in from the 17th dimension, so the planet’s doomed in 11 years time.
But really special more ‘natural’ and less evil humans can save the whole world from the bad evil human,s via sprouting pure horse-manure, and otherwise do nothing whatsoever, but steal other people’s money to lower the temperature, but they need to steal more of our money because sadly, and inexplicably, it’s not actually working, the world is still doomed. If only humans had evolved on Earth, we’d not be so unnatural and perpetually damaging. We really need a machine that pumps the evil humans back to the 17th dimension, where they’re less able to destroy the cosmos.
10
WOW… Siberia get an extra 2.5C in mid winter..
I bet they are NOT complaining.
And you can see the WEATHER that caused our fire problems. !
Where the **** are you getting your stupid percentages from.. they are meaningless.
30
“Delingpole: Australian ‘Climate’ Fires Are Pure Fake News Propaganda”
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/01/12/delingpole-australian-climate-fires-are-pure-fake-news-propaganda/
30
An antidote to the rubbish I had just read from former PM Turnbull. Thanks Ian, I needed that!
40
Corbyn used the Australian fires to push his barrow I see. How is that fool still Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition?
00
Unfortunately, the article is let down (for me) by the seeming disingenuous use of different time lines for the rainfall v temp. why is the temp chart only until 2015?
It might be quite useful to plot rainfall and temps on the same time scales; Did all the previous big fires occur during particularly hot spells of long droughts?
The rest of the article is good – just wish the graphs matched.
00
In the deafening silence following Greater Thornbird becoming Time’s POTY, I’d like to go early and nominate Ricky Gervais for this year. He is mostly of the left, sure, but his Globes are Golden.
40
Also Pointman’s POTY (Prat of the Year).
https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2019/12/21/prat-of-2019-we-have-a-winnah-st-greta/
30
I’m glad Schiff got a gong. I was maybe going for Pelosi, but AOC pipped her. Then there was Nadler and that maniac Al Green, but Schiff ‘trumps’ them.
I bow to the Pointman though.
00
Greta is an actor, we all know this, and now more evidence;
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/01/facebook-glitch-reveals-indian-un-climate-delegate-posts-as-greta-thunberg.html
10
Have emailed the link to Jo to make sure she sees it. 🙂
10
Used our little generator set up again on Saturday during a 3.5hr local outage. This time it was cool so no AC running but Mrs Y cooked a roadt dinner in the wall oven still as it happened over dinner time. Pleaesd with how useful a 3.4kV unit can be.
Also discovered that the garage is still supported on the generator when switched over. For us that means a small fridge and a small freezer still running. Next time i will throw the breaker to the garage and leave some headroom as we had one episode of the gen tripping out during the cooking.
Great SMS service from Ausnet with info about the outage and confirming restorations
20
We used ours too, though I cooked the vegs on the induction hob (no probs) and the fish on our little picnic gas stove; windows open for ventilation. We could keep ‘fridges, freezers, lights and square-eyed monster on to watch Dad’s Army…
30
Oh, and the slow-cooker with the chook for Sunday…
00
3.4kVA , mmm 3.4kV that would be interesting
00
OBSERVATIONS, within the ECMWF initiating observation inputs at noon, 12th of Jan, 2020, contains another 401 km/h jet. This time it’s over SE Canada itself.
https://i.ibb.co/cD8xMKc/OBSERVATION-400-kmh-jet-11th-JAn-2020-NE-USA-Screenshot-2020-01-12-Windy-as-forecasted.png
The forecast for this jet (several days back) indicated it would reach 411 km/h. But 10 km/h less was observed. I’ve noticed several times now that the max speed observations tend to be about 2.5% slower than ECMWF forecasts. Which is exceptionally accurate jetstream forecasting during the course of a week or more, IMO.
I’ve identified why the jetstream is weaker and more orderly in the eastern half of the Pacific basin as compared to the super fast kinked-up spaghetti SW and S of Australia of late. The large warm SSTA due east of NZ has a large lower and mid-level Low parked over it much of the time, due to its warmth, and this has been convectively lifting the lower part of the jet higher, and weakening it in the process. The result is the jets become weaker and less organised downstream of that large south central Pacific warm SSTA pool.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-120.21,-43.51,439
The jetstream begins to strengthen again as it crosses the South Atlantic then becomes very strong in the southern Indian ocean. Then it becomes more serpentine and kinked from SW of Australia to just east of NZ. This has been the jetstream pattern for virtually all of this Summer, thus far. The result has been stronger deeper fetch of jets, throwing cooler drier air over southern Australia (when directed that way, and regular cold snowy air over NZ when a very strong and deep (for Summer) jet is directed toward NZ – which has been most of the time.
It’s likely this pattern will continue. It’s throwing drier air northwards from in the eastern half of the Indian basin, to the equatorial zone over Oz, and then to the Tasman Sea and in the south of the Coral Sea. The moisture there is being pulled into a SE moving belt that is N and E of the large SSTA, to the east of NZ. The resulting dryness is making the landmass over Australia hotter during the day but it’s counter intuitively being driven by upper and mid-level tropospheric drying, due to the increased rate of intrusion of cooler-drier sinking stratospheric air, sinking below the tropopause within recent months. That drier air is now beginning to get to the mid and lower troposphere within the tropics, due to these resulting persistent very strong record-level jet speeds. They exhibit a longer fetch over the fringes of Antarctica from roughly 80 deg East to 170 deg East, via combining with and effectively incorporating the polar-Jet, as well.
Thus over the coast and also the the interior we’re seeing both near to record high Max-Temps plus actual record low Max-Temps separated by less than 24 hours.
RECORD BREAKING COLD DAY 5 JAN 2020
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/
Transient temperature variability is increasing. Note the regular hot to cold air pulses this Summer in southern Australia and the Clayton’s, “Summer you’re having when you aren’t having a Summer”, in NZ. The only thing missing from this tendency to increasing T-variability is the high moisture level necessary to fire stronger thunderstorm and frontal activity.
This will come, eventually, if this stratospheric air intrusion process continues through 2020 but it may require a moderate La-Nina phase coinciding for the increased T-variability to finally become tangible weather-wise as a more grumpy lower troposphere which breaks stuff (like towns) more often.
40
Nothing wrong with this summer in NZ , for producers , that is.
https://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain/radar/wellington?range=300&tab=real-time
20
The electrical energy finds it harder to earth over ocean, unless the appropriate cloud cover is available. But more energy can earth over the land. The kinks will reflect where this is easiest to do. On the other hand if there were dark clouds over the ocean or some other vehicle for earthing, the pattern may be different. The kinks give it away as an electrical phenomenon. Since think how much energy it would take to change the direction of such fast-moving air.
00