Something does not add up
So the virus is on its way. Even though Australia has no known community transmission we are choosing to slow down the spread by actively importing it even though we are surrounded by a moat, and are pretty much self-sustaining. We have thousands of high risk people and the disease that’s coming is largely unknown — today there are reports a Japanese case of a woman medical experts had thought had recovered who tests positive again. Is this a biphasic disease like anthrax? That’ll be fun.
Winter is twelve weeks away for Australians, and we know the coronavirus potentially threatens to overwhelm our medical systems and could be a GDP-type hit on national economies. It’s highly infectious, and between 5 – 17% of current cases outside China require hospitalization, and probably 1 -3% will need intensive care. Inviting the virus to start spreading now will mean it will peak during winter — the worst possible time in Australia.
Australia is one of the easiest countries to protect from this scourge, yet we are obediently following policies of northern hemisphere nations in a different situation. Hmm?
As I keep saying, it’s easier to import a deadly virus than to bring in cut flowers to Australia.
Most people won’t get very sick, but China is still reacting somewhat like the it has the Black Plague.
Scott Morrison says “the pandemic is upon us” but also says don’t cancel large public events, you can still go to the footy. How to reconcile the two; is it coming, or isn’t it?
Based on all these things, the only logical approach is to close the borders temporarily until we know more. The medical experts I’ve talked to privately agree. Thousands of Australians agree (see the last essential survey). Yet despite that, almost no medical official, commentator or expert even discusses that as an option. Are they all afraid of being called a scaremonger? Is namecalling worse than being the person who decided to let the virus run rife, or do they know something they are not telling us? Perhaps, behind the scenes, the experts know that too many cases are already circulating without diagnosis? Officials are acting as if that’s the case. Somehow we shifted from “low risk” to “100% chance sometime soon”. Germany has just announced six new cases and says “it’s facing an epidemic”. Trump has said “the risk is low” but warned schools need to be prepared to close. One US case with no known source has just been announced. Ominously, they acquired it before Feb 19th, but only just got tested. Evidently undiagnosed coronavirus was spreading a week and a half ago around Sacramento.
LATE NOTE: The US untraceable case suggests the virus has been circulating possibly since Feb 12th or so. Perhaps this isn’t as dire as it sounds. Whoever he caught it off may not have triggered a wave of deadly pnumonia instead perhaps just triggering colds and flus. That may mean the virus is already loose, and most infections are not severe. Then again, since no one is testing these kinds of cases, who knows? I hope someone is tracking pneumonia cases in Sacramento and starting to test them.
Latest claims are the Ro (rate of reproduction of the infection) was a 7.05 in the early days in China. The draconian quarantines have reduced this to to 3.2. (by Jan 23rd, so it’s even lower now, hopefully). We have to bring the Ro below 1 to stop this. Every person has to infect less than one other.
How many will need a hospital?
Based on Worldometer stats, and bearing in mind there is an eight day delay between detection and progression to “severe” — the latest stats from semi-reliable countries on Feb 19th, the rate of progression to hospitalization is: (severe cases/ total cases 8 days ago). Bear in mind that with the lack of current broad testing, these numbers may bear no resemblance to the actual number of cases.
- Japan (13/76) 17%
- Singapore (7/53) 13%
- Germany (2/16) 13%
- Hong Kong (6/62) 10%
- Diamond Princess (36/542) 7%
- Thailand (2/35) 6%
- Taiwan (1/22) 5%
- UAE (2/13) 25%
- France (1/12) 8%
There are zero cases progressing to “serious critical” from Australia (15), USA (29), UK (9), Macao (10), Canada (8), Malaysia (22), Vietnam (16), India (5). That’s 114 cases with good outcomes. Many countries have had only one or two cases and complete recovery: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Egypt, Belgium, Russia, Philippines. Things are moving too fast in South Korea, Iran and Italy to make their statistics meaningful. Obviously all three had far wider spread a week ago than they knew of.
Is there any data on how this affects different racial groups, or is that information being kept quiet because everyone is too afraid of offending an ethnic group?
Singapore and Hong Kong appear to be doing good jobs of controlling the spread. Iran is a basket case, so is Indonesia (with no reported cases, but little testing and their medical policy is “it’s in the hands of Allah”. )
While graphs show exponential growth outside China, it appears (probably falsely) localized to South Korea, Iran and Italy. Presumably coronavirus has been headed via 747 out of all three for at least a week, which may be why officials have given up. They know outbreaks will occur next week, they just don’t know where. What I can’t explain is why they won’t even try tracking and isolating these cases now and stopping further imports. The success of Singapore and Hong Kong suggests it might still be possible.
The comforting Atlantic headline:
You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
James Hamblin M.D., The Atlantic
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. … it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
… even with the ideal containment, the virus’s spread may have been inevitable. Testing people who are already extremely sick is an imperfect strategy if people can spread the virus without even feeling bad enough to stay home from work. Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses.
What to make of Twitter trends that show that more people are searching for the misspelled caronavirus than the correct spelling? That isn’t the case here in Australia where #coronavirus is #1.
The Australian asks “should you travel” and says “Yes, No, Maybe”. Jo Nova says “Why risk it?” — who wants to chance catching it on a plane or overseas — even if you only get the common cold, you may end up facing quarantine for two weeks. Of course, if you are away from home, it might be time to get back.
This may all look so much better (or worse) in a few weeks. We just don’t have the numbers yet.
The Optimist says: Perhaps this is a bad flu season and as long as we can stop the cytokine cascade in the vulnerable, or get some anti-viral working, we may not be looking at large deaths or mass quarantines. The Pessimist says: do the math, stop the flights, and wait for the data.
Hi folks
Long time lurker, first time poster.
I would like to add a bit to what Jo Nova has already posted. That number 50 is an underestimation and was announced by the Qom MP Farahani. At 2% fatality rate the number of infected would be around 2500. Last week, there were estimates of 800-900 infected in Qom alone. This Harirchi character mentioned here was pressed about the actual numbers after refuting the claimed 50. He would not answer, instead promising his resignation if the actual numbers were anywhere close to 25% of the claimed 50 dead. In other words, he will resign if numbers are close to 12.5! This manner of irresponsibility and sophistry is a speciality of the regime. I would not be surprised if they announce 100 dead by end of next week with this Harirchi promising to fight on till the virus is ‘defeated’!
Qom is the Shia version of the Vatican and huge numbers of Shia pilgrims visit the city on a monthly basis. There are also many religious schools with regular foreign student attendance. The other ‘holy city’ is Mash-had which is the main Shia pilgrimage site in Iran and the major source of religious revenue and embezzlement for the mullahcracy. I would expect a major outbreak there soon enough since Shia pilgrims from all over Asia visit the city.
Just a few points:
1- Qom is very close to Tehran, the gigantic capital of the country where ca 15 mil reside.
2- Qom is now considered a satellite of the capital, with huge daily traffic flow between the two.
3- Qom is the last pit stop for the bus travellers from the southern half of the country heading to the capital. It is mandatory for buses to stop for 30 min or more for passengers to buy local delicacies.
4- It is believed that Chinese Shia clerics, yes you heard it right, attending their seminars in Qom were the vectors.
5- Iran is on the verge of collapse: economically, environmentally, infrastructural wise, agriculturally, hydro-logically etc. due to 41 years of Islamofascist looting and outright lawlessness, corruption and mafiacracy.
6- The mullahcracy is not synonymous with Iran or Iranian people. Think Pol Pot and Cambodia. This is a criminal and ruthless cult that has taken over an ancient country and uses its resources for the spread and strengthening of said cult.
7- Consequently, the mullahcracy does not have the desire, the will or resources to contain the outbreak. They could care less about the Iranian or the global population for that matter. If anyone doubts above claims, they can look up use of human waves to clear minefields and child soldiers during the Iran-Iraq war. You can also forget about ICU units or even rudimentary protection. There are pictures circulating, showing medical staff with primitive masks and no gloves walking around a major Qom hospital.
8- The mentioned indifference is corroborated by foreign minister Zarif’s boasting of sending 2 million masks to China a few weeks back while proclaiming eternal friendship and allegiance to emperor Xi. There already severe mask shortages in Iran. Why such devotion to China? Because the regime is completely owned by them and the Russians while being absolutely shunned by the rest of the world.
9- 60 million Iranians are estimated to live below the poverty line. An estimated 40 million live in absolute poverty. 20-30 million suffer from malnutrition and face uncertainty in regards to their only daily meal which consists mostly of bread and tea. There is a whole generation of children that has never eaten fruit, meat or dairy products in their entire lives. You can imagine the immune system of the above population.
10- When Chinese travellers were stranded in Turkey a few weeks back with no airline including the Turkish one willing to fly a single person home, IRGC owned Mahan Air stepped in . Numerous Chinese passengers were transported all over the place. They still are being transported with authorities boasting belligerently that the ‘evil demonic west’ being unable to disrupt the wonderful ‘friendship’ between the two totalitarian systems. Do you think these planes were disinfected afterwards? Right.
11- The very same Mahan Air is responsible for transporting arms, munitions and Shia Islamofascist goon squads to Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon to fight Sunni Islamofascist goon squads funded by other parties. These goon squads have nothing in common with your average middle easterner, a common misconception spread by some propagandists.
10- There are voices in Iran demanding a complete quarantine of Qom. A major reactionary mullah and part of the Ammar think tank closely associated with the supreme leader, read fuhrer, and his son, considered to be the next in the succession line, came out yesterday and simply said: forget about it! Qom will never be quarantined.
11- Now some of you may say: ‘are these mullahs crazy by being this reckless with the country’s security and future’? The answer is a simple ‘no’. However, government as we know it in the west does not exist in Iran. It is 75 million people being held hostage by the mullhacracy, imagine an amalgamation of medieval papacy and modern mafia, utilising the rest of population for brutal suppression and mercenary purposes. A system where complete psychopathy and internecine gang warfare dominate. The natural resources and Iranian people’s bodies and minds are to be exploited in any way the regime deems fit. The population does not count in their calculations the way they do in modern nation states. Consequently, as many as needed can be sacrificed.
What about the rest of the world you may ask? What about it? The west is considered a mortal enemy representing hated modern notions such as separation of powers, liberalism, secularism and rule of law while the Sunnis are viewed as rivals and the rest of Asia having more people than is needed as far as these characters are considered. Let it spread by all means they would say since chaos and collapse of the region would benefit these gangsters. The neighbouring countries realised this last week and began to close their borders. If we are sane, we will do the same here as well.
12- Finally, do i think this is the end of the world? Absolutely not! But i would not trust the venal, degenerate and criminal mullahs in charge of the country to care for disease prevention or alleviation. As mentioned before, they are facing collapse and Trump’s sanctions have hurt them in ways they have never been hurt before. Ultimately, this will be part of the greater geopolitical game being played. The mullahs prefer chaos and war to negotiations and that is why Trump has not taken the bait despite numerous provocations. Both parties know that negotiations will dismantle the mullahcracy for good and bring back Iran into the fold of the American empire. War on the other hand will lay waste to the country, throw it back into the stone age and potentially lead to partition but it would also provide a very small chance for the mullhacracy to survive as a small local failed state, a kind of Shiastan of sorts operating under the radar, too insignificant to be considered by America.
Trump administration would like to keep the country in tact for what is to come later this decade but if they are forced through some insane mullah antics, they will not hesitate to level the country without putting boots on the ground. That’s option B and has been part of their calculations from the start. Tactical nukes are not excluded.
I am of the opinion that a pandemic has been a fact for some time and that this thing needs to burn itself out. I am not worried about some endtime scenario but disruptions in the supply chain which can be devastating to our synchronised and interconnected global systems are a real threat. The aim of my post is not to add to readers’ anxieties but to give you a realistic assessment of what is going on in Iran since western sources are generally clueless about the mullahcracy or suffer from leftist/post structural bias in their efforts to cover for them. Please post any questions you may have and i will answer as best as i can.
All the best
[Check your email Sinbad! Apologies for the delay posting. – Jo]
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Sinbad, thank you for this long and interesting comment.
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An ex police driving instructor who worked internationally told me that he despaired when working in the Middle East.
He could never instil any sense of anticipation, caution or road discipline as any mishap was the result of being Allah’s will.
Is this the mindset of the powers that be in Iran?
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They also believe in a coming Mahdi ( Islamic “Messiah” ) and a major conflgration…..just to add extra fuel to the fire…
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It’s called Inshallah fatalism. There is no cause and effect in Islam, because even the laws of nature can be subverted at any by Allah. It’s a major reason that the Islamic world has not, and never will [SNIP Dear Richard, here in Australia if you say something that might help the people of Islamic faith, but also might offend them, we deem it to be illegal. Section 18C. There is no free speech in Australia. – Jo]
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Thanks for your concern, Jo. I am very aware of Section 18C. It will never stop me from speaking my mind though. If people allow that to happen, then they don’t deserve freedom of speech.
[Perhaps I don’t deserve to speak then, but unless you can fund the team of QC’s can you refrain from speaking your mind in a way — however stupidly — defined as “breaking the law” in Australia. Thanks – jo]
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Apologies, Jo. Sometimes the blood rushes to my head in the face of such corrupt law as 18C. I will choose my words more carefully next time.
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Hi StephenP
Thank you for your interest and sorry for the delay. The mindset of the Shia fascist elite is the following: power justifies anything. A common misconception among western observers is to take Islamofascists at their words. It makes for a good narrative a la Mordor vs. Gondor. I don’t blame them since the west has enjoyed 500 years of modernity and enlightenment and could not actually know what the true nature of theocracy is like. Your average western audience member watches TV shows, movies, documentaries or read historical accounts trying to imagine what it must have been like to live under medieval papacy. I can assure you, none of the works of fact or fiction come close to reality. It’s a system of phenomenal ignorance, quashing anything worth living for and astounding exaltation of brutality and barbarism. It crushes anything that is innately human and make us who we are. The regime is dependent on an emotional mindset which rejects rationality. That is basically the entire 400 plus years resume of Shia political enterprise, rejection of rationality necessary for human agency. The ex police officer was correct. Anyone who has watched Lawrence of Arabia remembers sharif Ali’s constant arguments with Lawrence, telling him about the futility of his efforts since ‘it is written’. This fatalism is a major component in the [lack of progress] of the region. Another component is geopolitical machination by major powers, both western and eastern. Historically, the British empire has been the greatest supporter and enabler in spreading of [SNIP] Islamofascism. A common saying in Iran goes like this: lift a mullah’s beard and you will see ‘made in Britain’ printed on his chin! However, what the post structural media won’t tell western consumers is that Russia is up there with GB and has done far more damage to Iran than America, ‘the Great Satan’, since it does not fit the Frantz Fanon anti colonialist spiel. Simply put, the region is too important to be left alone. In the last 20 years the Chinese despots have begun to take over and the regime is now pretty much owned by them and the Russians. That in combination with the supreme leader’s extreme Russophilia/Sinophilia and his hysterical and pathological hatred of the west has completely marginalised the British and American factions in Iran. The so called ‘president’ Rouhani is a good example of a British asset while ‘supreme leader’ Khamenei is known as Khamenov or Khamenovsky in Iran since there are indications that he has been a Russian asset since 1960’s. He is reported to have an extremely sordid past, from his younger days, which would make him a malleable puppet. The above is what Trump administration is trying to redress, to restore the pre 1979 balance or even get the country back as a step towards strategic goals of the American empire in this decade and beyond.
What you were told about the peoples mindset is accurate. The traffic conditions in Iran are horrendous. A few years back, up to 40000 annual deaths on the roads were recorded. The mullahs are now boasting that the numbers are down to ca 30000 annually. However, the regime feeds on death, mourning, sorrow, misery, wailing and depression. Everything is turned into ‘martyrdom’ to feed the machinery forever in need of human sacrifice. IRGC shooting down a passenger plane killing many innocent people? Martyrdom. Corona virus deaths? Martyrdom. 50 plus people trampled to death at terrorist thug Soleimani’s funeral procession due to lack of planning and mismanagement by officials? Martyrdom. Busloads of mindless dupes going off a cliff after attending the Soleimani circus? Martyrdom. In many regards it’s a death cult for the masses and unlimited power abuse and privilege for the elite. Consequently, the Iranian people have been battered, through phenomenal brutality and trauma, into a collective psychosis where they have to constantly suppress their Iranian side exalting life, production, happiness, feasting, musics, poetry, beauty and nature to not antagonise the imposed Shia side. The rate of mental health issues must be astronomical but since there are neither reliable statistics nor adequate mental health care, no on can provide an accurate picture. The above mentioned sides are completely irreconcilable and one day the Iranian people have to make their own mind up; either Iran comes first or the worshipping of dead imams none of whom were Iranian but descendants of those who conquered the county through phenomenal brutality in the 7th century. This national Stockholm syndrome must be resolved or there won’t be an Iran. Nations do not hold a eternal right to existence, they either evolve or go into that good night.
Finally, I have noticed some concerns in regards to Mahdi end time prophecies and mullahs raising the red flag of jihad etc. As a liberal, i acknowledge your right to believe what you wish. However, the above holier than thou rhetoric is intended for the internal sheeple or dupes who make the base, ca 10% of the population, and recruitment candidates for whatever purposes mullahcracy deems fit. 90% of the Iranian population want to work, pay taxes, drink alcohol, dance, visit the west, date whoever they wish and to be generally left alone. Many Iranians love America or the idea of it. They also think that religion is an an individual issue. The official religion is dead in Iran, probably forever. In the future it will be a private matter independent of government control. Once these ghouls are toppled, Iran will be a trailblazer for secularism/laicity in the region. This is the upside of surviving a theocracy.
I can assure you that the mullahs themselves do not believe in anything they proclaim either. These are extremely depraved and cunning psychopaths whose sole purpose in life is to exploit others. That’s all. They would not risk their own lives in the slightest. They will fight to the last Iranian to maintain their Shia international or dreams of a Shia empire in the region. However, due to lack of support at home they must rely on foreign thugs. As far as their regional proxy armies go, they all demand dollars every month or else. Nobody lifts a finger for this decrepit, corrupt and ridiculous regime unless they see some greenbacks. Thanks to Trump’s ruthless determination, the oil exports have gone from 2.5 million barrels a day to ca 100,000. The mullahs just failed the FATF deadline. Their economic situation is about to get much more dire. Who pays the ultimate price? The Iranian population, but this is the least bloody way to get rid of these parasites. They are crumbling and genuinely scared since they have never met anyone like Trump or those around him. The western leaders have been placating these criminals and made them into 10 feet giants for the last 40 years. They were really led to believe their own hype.
As far as the actual threat they pose goes, Israel has been killing their goons in Syria and Iraq in their hundreds. Blowing up infrastructure and massive ammo dumps. Not a single shot has been fired back at Israel. I would like Israel to conduct more air strikes but they have their own game-plan and do things in their own time. That being said, the mullahcracy can and will attack the west in other indirect ways, including the usual terrorist cells etc., as i have indicated in my original post. They knew about the virus spreading back in January but did nothing and still are doing nothing. Negligence? I don’t think so. They would like this thing to spread since this is probably the ‘best way’ they can ‘retaliate’ i.e. crashing the world economy. They will fail at this too since that is all they’re good at.
All the best
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Thanks Sinbad,
Love the name!
You wrote a very lengthy and interesting post.
How come you are interested in Iran?
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Hi Peter C
Thank you for your interest. I am of Iranian decent and speak the language. Sinbad the Seafarer is a childhood hero and a major character in the Indo-Iranian collection of stories known as One thousand and one nights, wrongly titled in the west as ‘Arabian Nights’ and promoted as part of the golden age of Islam. There never was such an age, Islamist lobby and western stooge academic fellow travellers promote this idea to the max, but that is a discussion for another time.
All the best
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Chiefio’s just made this comment :
“How to prevent and stop the spread is easy. But it will not be done.
The virus has no legs nor wings. It can not move from country to country on its own.
Stop international and inter regional travel fo 40 days. During that time, test everyone from any region with disease. Those infected go off to disease camp and stay there until dead, or cured plus any relapse time possible. Workers in the camp have separate quarters area from the sick and do not return to the outside population until 40 days after the last case is discharged.
Basically, stop being legs and wings for the virus. Find and isolate folks with it.
Why won’t this be done? Too much money lost to the rich. To much bother to the poor. Some systems break badly once population involved is large. (Chinese farmers dumping food while city starves) ”
Time to start farting around with this disease !
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When food supplies dried up there would be severe rioting in 3 days the consequences of which will be worse than the virus. Starvation and rioting are to be avoided at all costs.
Is this the real deal or a media scare? who can tell but let us remember that in the UK for example some 17000 people a year die of flu. As yet none to coronavirus.
I wouldn’t like to be the one to lock the country down but sensible measures can be put in place such as banning international sports games.
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May kill 1% of the population. I wouldn’t like to be the one who said “that’s OK”.
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unintended Consequences jo. shut down the system that allows trade, food, medical supplies etc and that will make a difficult situation much worse. may kill 1% of the population? Almost certainly won’t but warmists have been using that for years in as much a small temperature rise will kill many millions or perhaps even destroy humanity.
it is far too early to close a country down but as I say I wouldn’t like to be in the position where I call the shots. Bot the Uk and Australia are surrounded by moats and the sensible restriction of incomers should surely be practised. Any flights to china or other hot spots should certainly be looked at as should students returning from holidays in those countries most affected at the minimum.
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So is a 0.5% death rate fine? A 0.2%? Standard flu is 0.1% and much of the population has immunity and hospitalization rates are not 5 – 15%.
I said “stop planes” not trade. Boats with two week journeys are fine.
We don’t know what the death rate or ICU rate is, but we are choosing to import it. Published studies on China suggest the death rate there is 2.3%. For lots of reasons it will be less here, but how much less?
What’s the cost of closing schools, football matches, movies, factories, and elective surgery? What’s the cost of extended periods of adults staying home to look after unschooled children? Domestic quarantine is far more expensive that international quarantine.
If the death rate is only 0.1% and only 50% catch it this year (out of a population that has 0% known immunity), that’s *only* 12,000 lives plus mass productivity loss/ disruption / hospital costs etc. But can anyone guarantee that the death rate won’t be 4 times higher or 10 times? Not at this stage. Mutation is also possible. In a few weeks we’ll know a lot more. What’s the cost of three weeks of cancelled holidays and conferences?
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It is fair to say that there are three major factors preventing a huge response in my opinion.
First, correctly, or incorrectly, it has been identified as similar to the flu but somewhat worse. So the mortality, which is pretty scary,
is downplayed, as is that from the flu. Were it described as similar to ebola, the world air fleet would likely resemble the 737 Max fleet.
This may be imprecision in reporting, or unfounded optimism, or accuracy for more developed countries with good medical care. We don’t know.
But similes are how we reason publically, in many cases.
Second, the world economy is at risk. When you ask, who will say 2% is OK, it is almost all of our world economic leaders.
Third, it is political power that is at risk. When you say, who will say 2% is OK, it is almost all of our world political leaders.
Many Economic Leaders may be human beings, and be concerned about the health of their fellow citizens. Let us give them that credit. But in their compartmentalized brains they are calculating the risk/reward propositions of various possible outcomes. If they were to conclude that this is the “virus-X” that is the modern equivalent of the plague, or if this were just another flu, or if it is something in between, there is an appropriate economic strategy that will be undertaken in parallel with the medical one. There is a strong bias of public reassurance, of threat minimilization, of business as usual, of basic normalcy that the economic leadership wants to foster as much as possible for as long as possible, while they minimize losses and look for new opportunities. It’s what they do. It is worth noting that a vibrant private medical business sector in the US will also set speed records in finding vaccines & treatments; and that if something like contactless delivery is important for public health we’ll get their quickly. In the US, it will be interesting to see how fast we can recover certain mfg chains we’ve sent overseas.
Some political leaders may be human beings and truly concerned about their populations; most will be assumed to be, and prove to be, more concerned with their own position and power than anything else. The government is likely to overreact and under react at the same time, as it has to date with travel restrictions. The choice has already been made to muddle through whatever level of crisis eventuates.
As the world assesses its leaders in the aftermath, the single dominant discussion may be the deference to the dishonesty of the Chinese by most of the world’s governments. Depending on the damage caused, a large variety of relationships may change.
In a strange possible foreshadowing, a friend of mine reported going to the EPCOT theme park in Orlando, FL, USA for dinner last night. There are no closings or restrictions at the Disney properties, and crowds were normal for a seasonal weeknight. EPCOT is divided into country themes. Canada, Norway, France, and the others were crowded, “China” was almost completely vacant.
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Well the global stock markets have decided that this is . a plague !
Investors know what hits the bottom line
And have acted accordingly.
No BS in their response !
Just likely profits & losses !
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Why is it too early to close Australia down to a virus that will kill almost certainly many Australians?
You may be able to live with that Tonyb, I’d have a problem.
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A recently retired English GP suggested to me that the best path might be a slow burn through the population so that UK reaches a roughly one third infection/immunity status. After that the disease spread would be slow and relatively manageable.
The human immune response is a wonderful process and we could all do well to optimize that.
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And the relatives of the sick & dead would sue him
If his advice was taken !
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Western countries have become reliant on the Chinese economy and addicted to its money, http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/02/27/casinovirus-addicted-unis-comp-chinese-students/
One of Australia’s most prestigious universities is offering cash grants of $7,500 to help Chinese students get around the coronavirus travel ban and resume their studies.
The University of Melbourne is offering the grant to cover eligible expenses including accommodation, airfares and quarantine costs …
The offer comes after the University of Western Sydney and Adelaide University offered students smaller amounts of $1,500 and $5,000 respectively.
The grants could enable students to return to Australia by serving a two-week quarantine period in a third country after leaving China.
I don’t even think its all about the money Australian politicians and business are so terrified of offending China they are willing to risk its populace for the sake of future investments that only benefit the few, who’s supposed to be in charge of this place anyway?
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its 99% about Uni money Yonnie,and its a disgrace.Sidestepping quarantine laws
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You’ve got it in one Ivan. Let the Uni’s suck it up I say.
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Give them a taste of what the real world is like.
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Yonnie,
Indonesia is a worry.
I fear that this country could be a staging post to “help Chinese students get around the coronavirus travel ban and resume their studies.”
Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam. All have confirmed cases.
Not one case has been detected in Indonesia. Hardly surprising as they have only done 132 tests.
It is also hardly surprising as their health system, pathology and proactive testing is of very limited capacity.
The Indonesian Health Ministry reported that, as of Tuesday, over a 6 week period it had tested 132 specimens from 44 hospitals in 22 provinces and that all had come back negative.
That is an average of three tests per hospital. Which also averages out as only one biweekly test, for each hospital, over that period… In a country of 260 million and tens of thousands travellers and tourists.
link:
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/26/indonesia-pressured-to-do-more-to-detect-coronavirus-amid-zero-reported-cases.html
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Trump press conference on US situation:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/26/coronavirus-trump-press-conference-117813
The medical professional speaks highly of Trump.
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I have pondering how the situation will develop here in Australia. No new COVID 19 cases in the past 2 weeks. But with people still flying in here from Iran, Italy, South Korea, Thailand, etc etc..It is just a matter of time till it arrives via some asymptomatic traveller, and gets spread around.
If one is retired and at home there will be the opportunity to do a soft lock down and then a harder one, if needed ( When needed ! ) But what about folks still in work ?
An example : my lady is a carer in aged care facility with a range of nationalities… At some point an infected traveller back from where ever they have been , ( Thailand comes to mind ) will visit an elderly relative in the facility.. And then of course the aged residents will be sitting ducks for this virus. As then will be residents’ families & the staff & their families !
The best point to stop this process is at the very start : at the airports !
Probably a relevant query for lots of folks !
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Words of wisdom Bill.
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Believe it at your own risk.
How the devil would we know?
Universal testing has been implemented has it?
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This is so obvious and all as in ALL travels should should long time ago have a mandatory quarantine of at least 25 days. (Longest known time from infection to symptoms 24 days).
As there is almost no restriction on flying, is it not time to question authorities priorities or even narrative ?
How on Earth can anyone even think the risk of infection is LOW. We have a pandemic ongoing, risk of infection is high everywhere. Mentioned yesterday, Korean flight attendant, was walking LA downtown for a couple of days, infected. We know there is now at most about 5 days until it breaks out in LA. Officially maybe with no ‘link’ to known cases. The same happens everywhere. At the same time there is a report from Japan of a woman testing positive SECOND time. That means NO IMMUNITY.
Risk of infection should be regarded high everywhere. Secure safe zones and quarantine anyone entering. Stop all flights. Do it right now. Only chance to limit damages in the long run.
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Will a vaccine help?
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They’ll have to be quick, we have a pandemic on our watch.
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Of course. Isolate and ring fence.
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Antivirals are probably a lot quicker to approve, especially if they are already being used. Testing vaccines is very slow.
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Australia managed to avoid the worst effects of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, but of course it was easier to quarantine ships coming to Australia. Imagine doing that with all the aircraft landing at Australian airports.
Dr Li-Wenliang was hounded by the authorities in Wuhan for his temerity in suggesting that the Corona virus was something new, and no wonder that medical experts are wary of giving hard choices on how to deal with CoViD-19.
There must be a lot of pressure from commercial interests.
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You hardly needed a quarantine when ships took six weeks. When ships arrived with contagion, they were parked in quarantine areas anyway. Quarantine was well understood from the devastation of the Black Death. It was normal and accepted. It is still accepted for livestock. However in the indulgent world of a one day trip to the US, a quick week in Bali or a two week holiday down the Danube, it will be a shock.
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But should be mandatory
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Whilst I find the dithering at the top of many governments worldwide, not just Australia’s, rather worrying, I do have some sympathy and admit that I wouldn’t want to have responsibility for closing the nation’s borders.
Whenever such a move is contemplated or suggested, everybody thinks about tourists and the movement of people, many of whom could either postpone their trip or organise a teleconference. Little actual disruption (relatively speaking) need occur.
However, let’s not forget that the movement of all goods, in and out, would have to stop too. What would the effects of this be? Is Australia truly self sufficient in all essential goods, including medicines, medical equipment, etc? There would inevitably be mass layoffs from businesses that rely on imported raw materials or parts. Some foods would vanish off the shelves PDQ while even those grown/made here in Oz would undoubtedly become scarcer and scarcer as the choice of available foods shrank. Rationing would, sooner or later, become necessary. Armed guards at the supermarket? Petrol stations?
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Keyword: Dithering.
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It would give some idea of the effects of the Green New Deal.
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What I find curious is that China is exporting thousands of its workers to its belt and road and port initiative to a variety of undeveloped countries. you would expect Sri lanka and certain African states to have high levels of infection but they don’t.
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At least not that we know of.
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The biggest obstacle to proper management of this situation was the WHO. Right from the start there was a “let’s not offend China” mindset and pandora escaped while they were away in PC fairy land wondering how to break the bad news to their belts and roads masters.
The only way this situation could be managed was by an immediate global travel ban from China, followed by a proper quarantine policy for all incoming travelers back to their home countries. If the virus had been localised to China it would have allowed the rest of the world 6-12 months to develop and distribute a vaccine and the world would have been restored back to normal operation in little more than a year and many hundreds of thousands or possibly millions of lives (tbd) would have been saved. Even China would have been far better off with a strong global economy still in existence and ready to catch up on lost trade.
The complete lack of early response from the WHO is now likely to lead to a massive global financial collapse as the virus will probably halt every economy on the planet and create enormous suffering, resulting in millions of deaths from both the virus and ensuing food and medical shortages that follow, especially in the highly populated developing world. And all this misery will instigated in the name of not wanting to offend China.
For those that are lucky to survive what comes next, the world will probably be a very different place after the dust settles. I’ll bet no one is talking about a climate emergency for a very long time.
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It now appears that 70% of the world’s population (7.8 billion) may get the infection, but only 1% of those are likely to die.
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That’s still 55 million dead.
In Australia we would be looking at about 180,000 deaths. I think not. More likely about 5 times the death rate of influenza but that would mean about 6,000 deaths. If only we could confine that to Canberra.
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Better to compare the situation to the Spanish Flu.
‘Australia’s death rate of 2.7 per 1000 of population was one of the lowest recorded of any country during the pandemic.’
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el g:
In that case we would be looking at 70,000 deaths.
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Where did you get the 1% ?
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Jo you seem to have missed out Italy in your list of places with recorded cases and deaths.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/02/26/half-of-italys-regions-infected-with-coronavirus/
is the best up to date list I have seen.
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I didn’t miss Italy. As I said, there’s no point in calculating stats from Italy. The rate of progresion to severe based on an 8 day lag is 1167%. For every person who had the illness 8 days ago, their illness has progressed to put 10 people in hospital.
Worldometer consistently has the stats. Plus John hopkins, and I’ve been watching both for nearly 6 weeks.
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Ignore the red.
Fat finger.
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And the green too where necessary 🙂
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But thanks Ivan. Sigh. Will add a note about the spread there. Sad.
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if politicians think they are despised now, just wait until they let in a virus that kills 180,000 people.
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Well so far, regardless of the dangers of the virus, from a distance we seem to be doing our best to allow it in to attack our population…..why?
I suspect the disease itself is possibly a smoke screen …. is it an enabler for a dry run for eventual martial law?
Ponder the fact we have most schools with 6 foot high fences funded by the govt. Why? Vandalism? Or are they dual purpose for a future requirement? You don’t build stuff like that unless its going to be used.
Also emergency powers can be used to do all variety of awful things under the guise of “its for our own good” which is the credo of most tyrants. I think we need to observe closely whats going on.
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I observe it OS.
I own a set of bolt cutters.
You?
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In China ALL building blocks are gated. One or Two gates with guards, for security. When I first saw this 12 years ago, direct and instinct thought was: Is this made to lock people up ? I mentioned it, but was laughed at. Well, was used in Wuhan for this purpose. They even welded the gates.
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They’ll sell it like renewable energy
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Let’s think of the bigger picture.
All this talk of closing borders should not be seen as the worst possible injustice and the end of the world. As bad as this virus may be, we should see global co-operation on SARS-CoV-2 quarantine as a dress-rehearsal for a future pandemic of an even nastier disease. Probably it will happen eventually, we just don’t know what or where or when.
There has also been talk in the Twittersphere of unfair discrimination against people of a particular Asian appearance in their business and daily travel. It is unfair because the clean are treated as unclean. We must realise this sort of discrimination is only done because in the absence of any effective blanket screening procedure we are each left to fend for ourselves and so we rationally apply stereotypical reasoning on the small amount of information we have, superficial though it may be. The safest and most equitable option would be to treat everybody you see as though they’re infected. If this situation goes south – in more ways than one – we may have to actually do that. But in the meantime we have an easier option. A total border travel ban with universal quarantine for those who insist. This change would reassign some infection control responsibility to those best placed to make informed decisions and take action (at the border) and removes the temptation of the average person to be superficially discriminatory in domestic life.
A total travel ban is the remedy for the racism. The virus does not discriminate, neither should we.
International travel for business, tourism, friendships, and diplomacy, has been quite liberally permitted by most countries for a long time. Our normal attitude is one of freedom and equity in movement. We should not feel bad about enacting unusual restrictions to match an unusual threat for a limited period.
This is justifiable where the active cases, infectiousness, and severity of the virus is well understood. It is an infringement only on those brazen enough to want to travel in spite of the known risks. We could even let people travel anyway if they want to take the risk, as long they understand they’ll be on lockdown in a hostel for 14 days on arrival. Those who did not pay deposits for their travel prior to the imposition of the ban should be billed for the cost of their upkeep while in quarantine, so they can add that cost into their personal travel budget before deciding whether to travel against advice. Anyone who values their travel highly enough may then still go. Large amounts of accomodation that will not be used due to the slump in travelling foreigners may be repurposed for returning residents.
The international response should be based on a choice between better and worse possible futures, not on the short term discomfort.
The world should not be worried about cancelling the 2020 Olympics when there are still 158 days until the opening ceremony. That is 114 days longer than the time it takes to incur this illness and fully recover, and 134 days longer than it takes to get a person out of quarantine. Swift and logical large scale action can achieve this outcome. But all countries with an Olympic team should commit to this common and worthy goal immediately, and organise the introduction of universal quarantine as soon as possible. Inside this crisis we may find an amazing opportunity for people of all nations to work together – faster, higher, and stronger!
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Best thing we can do for Chinese restaurants is stop the spread here. Then no one will have to stay away from any restaurant. And if Asians are for some reason genetically predisposed to this disease, the same thing applies to our Australians with Asian heritage.
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Indeed.
It may well be that it has more to do with smoking than with ethnic variation:
Guoshuai Cai. Tobacco-use disparity in gene expression of ACE2, the receptor of 2019-nCov (preprint)
Inconsistent with the study of Zhao et al.(5), we observed no significant difference in ACE2 expression in Caucasian lung tissue samples compared to Asian lung tissue samples in the RNAseq datasets (p-value=0.45, Fig 1A). In the microarray datasets, a higher ACE2 expression was observed in Caucasian samples compared to Asian samples (p-value=0.03, Fig 1A). Given that the GSE19804 RNA-seq study focused on female non-smokers while the TCGA dataset includes samples from both males and females and both smokers and nonsmokers, we believe that the observed disparity may be due to other factors other than race, such as smoking, gender and unknown factors.
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1
I’ve not been able to locate the ZHao et al study. I’d be interested in reading it, nevertheless.
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This seems to be the Zhao et al study referenced by Cai.
Sample size makes it problematic.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
So, who knows?
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The proposal above was written on 27 February. Can I just note…
There was no mention of “virus” nor “coronavirus” nor “covid-19” on the International Olympic Committee web site’s News and media releases section until 3 March. This virus was first mentioned only because one of the 2020 Olympic qualifying events was to be held in Wuhan, China! Of all the places in the world what a piece of bad luck that was for the boxers. But there was no mention of this incident affecting the Olympics in Tokyo or the rest of the world.
What a difference the next two weeks made.
The IOC did not acknowledge the threat to the olympics until 17 March, just 2 days ago, seemingly echoing some of the ideas I’d suggested:
I hope the IOC and the national leaders promote this idea more widely as it has great motivational potential for accepting a short term cost with a spectacular international benefit.
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Three trials being run in China for intravenous vitamin C for coronavirus.
http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n12.shtml
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Good. Its great stuff.
Vit D from the sun is also very helpful
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Lots of new exciting research, and especially in my opinion in the research that shows virus’s are also a part of life that perform incredibly important molecular/etc tasks/things 🙂 we could not do without. There is the microbiome and also the virome
For example, studies…
“The gut virome: the ‘missing link’ between gut bacteria and host immunity?”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6435874/
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Wondering if the 5G-virus “connection” is real, in researching where 5G is running in Australia, its in patchy roll out in all capital cities, and quite a few regional centres.
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That is just silly pseudo science being spread. Almost paranoiac. The real problem is well understood but this one is far worse than most.
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I’m a little reluctant to accept the bat soup version. When it comes to virus’ and pandemics in recent history there have been some strange tales that don’t exactly inspire confidence in the organisations that were the advocates. I don’t think I’m all that paranoid but I’m not a lot more sure of the virus pandemic version that’s coming out of the MSM than I am with their version of climate change. To be aware of the relationship between 5G, at 60GHZ and oxygen, and to imagine there might be some connection with a malfunction in the body doesn’t sound too ridiculous to me, at this stage.
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Its not beyond the realms of possibility if a focussed beam of 60 Ghz RF was aimed at a mammal,
if it “breaks” the 02 molecule in and near them , then logically they should pass out as O2 absorbtion is blocked to the bloodstream.
Seems reasonable to me.
02
Been looking into 5G and which countries have it as of September last year –
https://www.sdxcentral.com/5g/definitions/the-top-countries-with-5g-deployments-and-trials/
If there was anything at all in the claims of a link between it and the virus wouldn’t America have a large infection rate like China ?
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Looking at your link and it reveals that not all countries installing 5G are using 60 GHZ. In fact, it appears that China is the only one! That leaves me having to wonder why China would be using that frequency. 60 GHZ is the frequency where significant changes take place with regard to oxygen, and this is knowledge that goes back quite a few years.
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Wonder what frequency Italy and Korea are using and also Iran as they seem to be trouble spots for the virus ?
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So multiple labs world-wide make up a scenario where they isolate and sequence a virus that is only found in people with this disease in order to cover-up a disease caused by 5G? And they also construct a bogus disease broad scale distribution of the disease that fails to match the limited active 5G? Because…
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Yep, it’s 60 Gigatwerps on the nonsense scale.
I am in agreement with the leaf.
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It might be that it’s not only 60 GHZ 5G contributing to the illness, as there are also environmental pollution levels that are more than likely having some effect, and not to say there absolutely isn’t a virus playing a part in it all, but it’s part might be smaller than than we are being led to believe. There’s a lot going on . . . .
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on a cruise ship off japan? Is this a wind up?
In Iran?
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You’re all being way too optimistic. In round terms, about 30,000 cases have been resolved, which includes about 3,000 deaths.
That suggests a death rate of about 10%
Of the 45,000 currently still active cases we could therefore expect about another 4,000 to die. Until those cases are “closed” they can’t be included in the mortality statistics.
If about half the population gets it when it gets here and about ten percent die of it that’s about one and a half million deaths, just in Australia.
Yes – I’ve rounded the numbers up and down, but who wants to lose their life in the roundings?
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From the numbers I have seen, the young are fine. So unlike the Spanish Flu which hit fit young people with strong immune systems, this seems to be a flu and the death rates climbs rapidly over 60, presumably from infirmity, poor immune systems and preexisting heart and lung conditions. Cruise ships, the elderly and tourists. Actually that is one group. Plus it was hidden in Wuhan until the panic set in. The death rates outside China are far lower and the age spread greater.
Again it is a question of delay until there is some even half effective treatment, which will in itself slow or halt the spread. The most important second problem with government is to prevent panic. I cannot believe Pelosi is already blaming Trump. You could not go any lower in politics or public responsibility.
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And billionaire Democrat candidate Steyer says Coronavirus proves Trump is incompetent on the economy. Have these people no moral dimension?
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LATE NOTE: The US untraceable case suggests the virus has been circulating possibly since Feb 12th or so. Perhaps this isn’t as dire as it sounds. Whoever he caught it off may not have triggered a wave of deadly pnumonia instead perhaps just triggering colds and flus. That may mean the virus is already loose, and most infections are not severe. Then again, since no one is testing these kinds of cases, who knows? I hope someone is tracking pneumonia cases in Sacramento and starting to test them.
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Is it not likely that the “third world” populations in San Francisco and LA (about 140,000 in the cities, and perhaps twice that in the countryside per VDH) will become ill and suffer a very high mortality? Perhaps it is fortunate that our winter season is almost over and warming has begun in our southern tier of states. It is likely a hot summer will help control, and a second season will know a treatment if not a vaccine.
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There is hope the WHO have overreacted. It’s very fashionable. And who knows what dire information came out of early reports of fatalities. There is no doubt the rate of spread is high but the severity seems far lower out of China, so perhaps the number of infections in Wuhan was far higher than reported?
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Probably stated somewhere in one of the earlier posts, but if so, it would be worth repeating. There has been claims that the virus can be undetected and show no symptoms for up to 24 days, so there is ample opportunity for one person to spread this to hundreds of others while showing no symptoms at all.
An early comment made by a Dr. Boyle stated that there is no known antibody for the virus. Consider that, and realize that “cured” people may only have the virus driven to a virtually undetectable level, but not eliminated – that would be done by the body’s own antibodies. Thus the “reinfections” may not actually BE reinfections, but continuations of the same infection that was treated with an antiviral that dropped the virus below detection level. Put another way, once you have it, you may have it for life if the body cannot destroy it with its own antibodies. Not a pleasant thought, but also sometimes reality isn’t pleasant. It may well be the only way the virus becomes less of a danger is through naturally mutating to a less virulent form.
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I forgot to say, also realize that the virus, assuming it survived, in the cured person, may have adapted to the anti-viral used to suppress it the first time, thus the “re-infection” may be more difficult to treat.
Don’t recall WHICH royal said that when they died, they would like to come back as a virus that could wipe out the human race. Whoever it was is still alive, so who knows, maybe he’ll be too late, the virus may be here already, unless some people develop antibodies that can destroy the virus.
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That would be Charles. He is an active carrier of the dingbat virus.
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“Don’t recall WHICH royal said that when they died, they would like to come back as a virus that could wipe out the human race.”
Prince Phillip, IIRC.
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I agree that Australia should shut its borders till more information emerges …but our leaders won’t do it…they’d rather risk losing large numbers of Australians than risk offending a few countries whose leaders couldn’t care less about Australia and won’t thank us for doing the PC thing…especially since they’re the countries that are already demanding Australia commit suicide as a modern nation for CAGW.
We’ll just be seen as stupid and timid.
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“Trump has said “the risk is low” but warned schools need to be prepared to close.”
China already has 200 million kids being temporarily schooled online. Hopefully this measure will expand to colleges, and permanently, so 90% of academics and administrators can be set free.
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where is the cheering from the greens? I mean a reduction in flying. Shutting down of factories, a reduction in the human population, people in lock down, less travelling, potential for a pandemic (if we’re not already there). Isn’t this what they wanted? must be great for overall CO2 reduction?
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AN EARLY Covid19 virus DETECTION DEVICE IS COMING, consistent with my earlier post featuring an interview with Trump Crisis Team member (Trade Negotiation) economist, Peter Navarro (posted by me in previous Covid19 virus thread).
How long to invention, testing, build and distribution? Who knows. I heard another Crisis Team member insist that this GAME CHANGING tool
was coming, Wednesday morning on a cable TV business news channel. But no details yet. One imagines dual (or more) teams tasked with the project, working around the clock.
WHY is this tool so BIG? It will make quarantine screening effective!! Right now, there’s too much guessing.
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Jo Nova asks: “I hope someone is tracking pneumonia cases in Sacramento and starting to test them.”
Dr Scott Gottlied, a former US For and Drug Administration commissioner, said in an interview that the Federal government is
watching anomalies detected in a routine suite lab tests for lung infections, a routine screening tool doctors order for patients,
The anomaly they’re looking for is “no results,” which implies a possible Covid19 virus case.
The only downside to this detection tool is that it comes with a one to two week delay!
Does any other country monitor the new Corona virus this way?
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Everyone will get coronavirus, virologist warns as Scott Morrison activates pandemic plan.
If it is a pandemic, then surely the borders should be closed.
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Stats at top of page; UAE (2/13) 25% should be 15%. Apologies for being finicky.
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You will recall the video/photos of pets being killed by the authorities in China, even though they had not been identified as vectors? This was a couple of weeks ago, IIRC.
Well I read today that a Hong Kong woman’s dog has been confirmed as ‘weak positive’, though the report doesn’t make clear whether it is COVID-19, or simply the variant that dogs are known to carry.
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For those interested, here is the link to that story
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-coronavirus-detected-in-pet-dogs-in-hong-kong
Maybe we need to impose strict quarantine
To stop our pets becoming infected and dying as well !
For many people their pets matter more than other people !
🙁
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