Infected 34,887 Deaths 724 Recovered 2,076 John Hopkins CSSE
Assuming that these official statistics from China bear a faint connection to reality (in trend, if not number) this may be a sign that the draconian quarantine is starting to work. If real, it is only a slight slowing in the rate of growth, but it’s a good sign — one I have been looking for. It is a barely visible slowing of the rate of change in the cumulative tally of victims. The exponential curve is slowing. Of course, if this takes off in Africa this would be but a pause…
Graph by Worldometers.info
The virus which had been growing at 50% a day two weeks ago, slowed to 20% last week, and 11% today. One week was such a long time ago in exponential land. Last Friday night the tally was 9,700 infected, and 213 deaths. At that point, no nation had cut off flights or refused visas. UPDATED: Saturday.
..
Sadly the brave doctor who tried to warn the world has been taken by the virus. Ominously he was only 34 — presumably with no “underlying disease”. Instead of listening to him, the Communist Govt tried to silence him. Consequently, there is anger and outrage in China and his death may become a lightning rod. The Party has created so much unnecessary pain and suffering.
Outside of China the news was as good as we could hope — everywhere bar the hapless Diamond Princess Cruise Liner in Japan but with a sudden 61 recorded infections (UPDATE: Now 64 cases). Apart from that — what matters most (selfishly) is that we are not seeing a pattern of doubling in the West. This is significant as we approach a point 6 days after flights were closed in Australia. Though there is potentially a 14 day incubation, the average is around 6 days. Thus in theory, if the virus had made it to the first world and was sufficiently infectious, we should already be seeing half the first “uptick”. Instead most of the small number of new cases are immediate family members of people who flew in from China, usually from Wuhan. We know 5 of Australia’s 15 cases have been sent home apparently fully recovered and noninfectious.
No news is not necessarily good news — Indonesia has no cases, but apparently hasn’t done any testing either:
There is growing concern that the new coronavirus may be going undetected in Indonesia, where officials have not confirmed a single case of infection among the 272 million-strong population despite the country’s close links to China, reports Rebecca Ratcliffe, the Guardian’s south-east Asia correspondent. As of Thursday, Indonesia said it had no confirmed cases of the coronavirus and that 238 people evacuated from Wuhan. The Australian.
The “virus ship” is now a must-see experiment. (Apologies to those involved).
The Diamond Princess now has the dubious honor of being the highest ranking country outside of China in the infection stakes. It has it’s own special category: The top three nations are China (31,213) Other (61) and Singapore (30).
Details are scarce, only that the latest Australian diagnosed says she feels fine, and that 21 of the latest batch that tested positive, are Japanese. The Australian was on the same bus as the 80 year-old man who got off the ship in Hong Kong carrying the virus. When figuring out viral behaviour, all these forensic details are important at this early stage. Epidemiologists will be tracking the boat closely.
We all want to know the health status of the 61 (hoping they are well), and to trace the path of infection. Was it only one source or were there others from the Hubei province? Were the 61 mostly close contacts or is this spreading at random through air conditioning or door knobs. Is the cabin air finely filtered?
UPDATE: Worldometer does not record any severe cases in Japan yet (and they include the ship in this tally). Only 4 “recovered”. But if this is accurate hopefully it means none of the Cruise Ship passengers has the severe form.
If these were my relatives on board, I’d be asking the government for assurance that they were not at risk of acquiring a new infection now. If so, a fully fledged quarantine flight rescue would seem humane.
UPDATE: Cruise liners are starting to ban anyone who is Chinese or has been in China in the last 30 days. It is sad to see this apply to Chinese passport holders who may not have been near China. Presumably Cruise liners are desperate to reassure passengers to stop mass cancellations.
UPDATE: The Diamond Princess visited Taiwan on the way to Japan, and the government of Taiwan is now advising thousands of people who were near the tour group at any time that day to self isolate. This shows just what a huge logistical problem the containment of an asymptomatic spread can be. Scores of healthy people may put thousands at risk.
In other news: Hong Kong is going to jail people who breach quarantine and come in from China. This may get ugly if things don’t improve in China. They may find themselves locked up for six months in Hong Kong, which still may be better than being locked in a demountable pop up hospital back in China.
A short video from the same two guys as previously, this time talking about the censorship in china (12 minutes) and that brave doctor.
Other reports from China suggest real cases are closer to 300,000 .
Tencent .
REALLY hope it does not take off in Africa .
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REALLY hope it does not take off in Africa
Africans have amazingly good immune systems. When slavery started in the Americas, they tried white slaves but they died off too quickly. French Guiana was a place where they sent French prisoners to die.
The local “Indians” had no immunity at all so they were no good. Eventually, they imported Africans.
The reason why Africa remained black is because white people did not survive long there. A very different scenario from the Americas.
BTW, I am 1/4 Egyptian and I was born there so please Jo don’t accuse me of breaking some law.
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What China is doing to stop the spread of the virus, as viewed from satellites,seems excessive given the number of cases, and the tiny percentage of those who die.
But with a communist dictatorship, they can easily reduce the numbers of cases reported, or shht down commerce.
Maybe they are doing both.
The small percentage of deaths make me think this disease is not as bad as many are worried about.
An overreaction to the disease will temporarily shut supply lines for a lot of products assembled in other nations.
There will be a delay because parts were already moving out of China in ships before the disease.
Auto manufacturers(assembly plants) outside of China usually keep costs down by sourcing some parts in China, avoiding dual sourcing (only one set of production tools), avoiding warehouses (just in time delivery) and therefore they are very vulnerable to a China supply chain halt.
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We all know that China is a ruthless dictatorship so it’s not surprising we are not being told the whole truth. As for the severity of the virus it’s still too early to tell if this will turn into a major pandemic. Perhaps the world-wide efforts to contain is will work. Only time will tell. Let’s hope so.
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Under-reporting has its advantages. Panic would guarantee dispersion of asymptomatic carriers so if (for eg) Hong Kong became a second out-break city, we might see the virus flying into many world cities. We need to remain vigilant and prepare for the worst here in Sydney ( for eg)
Currently, I’m visiting Nepean Hospital in western Sydney and it is already working at close to 100% capacity.
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Peter, I think we may have larger issues.
Lets assume the virus may be targetting genetically specific groups – I have no proof but lets assume.
If so the impact on SE Asia alone and the cheap labour it provides the west may go offline for quite some time as workers are quarantined or refuse to work as they are scared of infection.
If you look at how many products come from china, this country may soon slow down as they cant get stuff out of china. Either that or the govt starts forcing local companies to re-tool to stat making stuff again like it used to. Prices will surge but at least we will be operational.Fuel might be an issue but we can liquify some of our 300 year supply of coal to make petrol etc….
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We always have larger issues. Two of them are the new bird flu and swine flu cases. If they enter the population things will become more serious all round. As for the knock on effect to the economy and social structure, it all depends on whether the current virus continues to spread or not. On top of all this is the fact that the Democrats have started the ball rolling for the break-up of the US. They are already talking about Impeachment 2.0. Even if they win this years election (I doubt it) the Republicans will not remain silent. They will hit back with much greater force for revenge purposes. The Democrats have now changed the rules of the game. They might not see it now but eventually they will regret what they have done by illegitimately using the impeachment process to destroy the democratic way.
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Its possible the silent majority in the US will rout the Left to finally deal with the rabid dog of the Dems. Deregistering the Dems or nominating them as a domestic insurgency would be a good start, then round up antifa and throw the lot in jail. About time….
On a separate thought, Australia sources a lot of its stuff from China – if China falls apart for a period of time, until we can reboot our manufacturing sector it will hurt.
Have a look at most of your consumer stuff and it says “made in china”…therein lies the problem…no supply chain…no business activity….
I suspect a lot of our pharmaceuticals are also made in china…best stock up on any meds a bit just in case before the profiteering really starts…coz you know they will.
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China cant supply…….USA will have a willing market..providing, their manufacturing startup, hits 4th gear asap…..
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Too true – I recently needed intravenous antibiotics, they were made in China. So were some of the dressings. The other dressings were made in Scandinavia and the UK. Nothing at all I could find was made in Australia. Too many eggs in one basket comes to mind, something drummed into us as kids in the 50s and 60s. Also a stitch in time saves nine.
The supermarket shelves are stripped of baby formula in Oz leaving Aussie mothers struggling to find formula for their infants.
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Speaking of Chinese products I raised the question at work (AusPost) about the thousands of Chinese parcels we get through our system and are they being checked or tracked, these parcels are just a plastic bag and contain air when they are sealed, where that air comes from is obviously the locale of the parcels processing, are these packages being considered? we’ll look into it was the answer.
Also these Chinese parcels often have the air squeezed out of them by Posties and contractors to make them flatter for packing in delivery bags, and the air filled protective package products you can buy are mostly made in China, make one think twice about that popping bubble wrap therapy.
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I think you are wise to ask. Our hot climate gives us some protection. I think this question may be most relevant to our Northern Hemisphere friends. Freezing preserves viruses. Heat, UV and dryness seems to kill them pretty well.
I think if packages were carriers we might have seen a few random cases in the West by now. What are the odds of an infective package from China being sent and arriving more than 2 weeks ago?
We expect that the virus is inactive in a dry package after several days of transit time, but we don’t know for sure. People who are concerned can seal suspect packages in a zip lock and put them in the sun for a couple of hours (if they don’t contain delicate goods). If the packages can’t handle heat, put the ziploc in the garage for a week or open packages outdoors with disposable gloves and wipe the goods with alcohol.
As a guide, the SARS Virus lasted 4 days in a wet environment. But only survived 90 minutes at 56 C. In Australia, we could leave those packages in a hot car for an afternoon and they’d be fine.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14631830
Surface contaminants of the sort where workers “should’ve washed their hands with soap” are probably the largest risk, so washing goods with soap or an alcohol wipe is probably very effective.
But for postal workers. Hmm.
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/
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For extreme sterilization a friend built an ultra-violet ozone unit. He fitted it to a cheese factory where every night the rooms are sealed and filled with a measured volume of ozone. All organisms are oxidised by morning when air conditioning turns on prior to the workers arriving.
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Jo thanks for that info its greatly appreciated, FYI you can send a parcel China to Australia in 2 business days, also the temperature in some cargo planes are controlled to around 20C while the others can be 30C to 5C , anything shipped from China currently around 10C has a chance of survival in my view and should be monitored.
Perhaps the lack of Chinese products will encourage Australian industry to start up again, well one can dream eh? 🙂
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https://www.teletrader.com/coronavirus-can-live-up-to-9-days-on-surfaces-german-scientists/news/details/51200309?ts=1581151679260
My eBay packets from China used to take at least a month to arrive so I guess that is one good thing about the Chinese postal system. 🙂
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Around that area
https://www.redpowermagazine.com/forums/topic/121995-since-the-joke-thread-is-gone-here%E2%80%99s-something-to-chuckle-at/page/86/?tab=comments#comment-1385101
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This was on the Simpsons I am sure.
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https://youtu.be/hqCVB0tOSVQ
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Now…. cases being reported in Iraq ….
oil sales to China and no restrictions on travel …
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Does anyone have any idea of the racial group all the victims belong to?
I came across an article today that might give hope to most nations.
https://vdare.com/articles/do-you-know-all-coronavirus-victims-appear-to-be-chinese-thought-not
If it is correct then it will not be as bad as it appears – we can hope.
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Ivan it seems that the dare article is not correct at all! Jumping at shadows is unhelpful.
There is no ethnicity bias to the coronavirus
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That’s self-satisfied nonsense Treeman.
It is a valid and in fact necessary scientific question to ask, if only one culture or only one nationality, or one ethnic subset is contracting the virus, or is being disproportionately represented within cases. Sneering at anyone asking it and discussing it is what’s not helpful, and is not a part of valid science examination.
WX – you are right and I am reading papers on this. But can both sides chill on inflammatory language. Too many flamewars lately. – jo
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Green thumb for your Comment here Jo !
Thanks !
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Another possibility is that a chinese vaccination program has made their population more susceptible. I believe reinfection with SARS can be far worse after vaccination (I am not anti vaccination- my kids are vaccinated).
This may explain why some people have a much worse illness than others
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VDare come with a fair dose of racial bias so it fits their default narrative
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Ivan, there may be something in the idea
That different different peoples of different genetic backgrounds
have different susceptibilities to a range of infectious diseases.
But your source is tainted by it’s racism.
This novel Corona virus disease requires a response that is based in compassion
NOT racism !
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The majority of victims so far are Chinese but that reflects where the disease started and was circulating without any prevention measures. Chinese tourists and business people have featured highly around the World but again, they caught it at home. There’s no evidence so far that other nationalities aren’t as susceptable.
There were examples in 1918 where certain racial groups were more affected (sicker and more fatalities)because their populations hadn’t been as exposed to diseases (eg North American and Australian natives) but the Chinese are a well exposed populous, especially in the 21st century.
China is having some success curbing the disease because it can impose restrictions that the West might balk at. However that might eventually become impossible to maintain as there aren’t enough beds or staff to look after them. The numbers will then resume the rapid growth.
The Chinese have done a lot of work for various diseases on creating cures from human plasma. ie giving sick people antibodies from recovered patients. That might help reduce the effects of the disease and clear beds faster. But a lot of those who recovered from SARS were deeply damaged physically so may clog up beds. I’m not sure how well Western systms would cope, let alone poorer countries.
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This post is reprinted by CFACT:
https://www.cfact.org/2020/02/07/coronavirus-hope-first-sign-of-a-slow-down/
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The more repostings of positive info the better.
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Why Treeman ?
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More people will read it.
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There is a huge assumption in this. And the start of the article states :
“Assuming that these official statistics from China bear a faint connection to reality (in trend, if not number) this may be a sign that the draconian quarantine is starting to work. ”
Ummmmmm ?
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as long as its factual all good I guess
lord know we have been pounded with predictions of doom
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Amazing. Even a slight slowing is fantastic in a pandemic which would normally be growing exponentially. So much depends on how the virus is transmitted but they all amount to human to human contact.
Isolation is working but it means isolation within such very large communities is working too. These are mega cities by historical standards where the world’s greatest cities never exceeded one million. There are hundreds of huge cities in China alone and mega cities of 30 million.
Perhaps for the first time in human history, whole populations know what is at stake and the closure of communities kills panic flight which spreads a virus so rapidly.
In a world so connected by rapid jet flight, tourism and with high individual mobility, this is a good sign. If only the Chinese city governments had moved a few weeks earlier but the world is learning and as the purges start in China, the correct response will be reinforced. Pretending a plague has not started not only costs massively, it will be punishable.
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According to a Singaporean friend’s FaceBook posts, Singapore is now on orange alert and the wearing of a mask is compulsory if you have cold or flu symptoms. My friend reports that people are even wearing goggles, in case the virus is transmitted through the eyes. He has difficulty understanding that reasoning.
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The masks are not for preventing the wearer catching the disease but to try and reduce the spread to others if the wearer has the virus but even then it’s not anywhere near perfect. They are useless to prevent a persone getting infected. The virus might be able to be caught through the eyes if the virus is airborne. However, if the virus is airborne then it can rest on any part of the face or body. Then when people touch or scratch themselves they can ingest it. The only sure way to stop the spread of an infectious disease is isolation.
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Great post Jo. I’ve bookmarked the first two links, CSSE and Worldometers for reference. Many will be relieved to see first and hopefully continuing signs of a slowdown.
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It was a leaked video of the pit being lined with plastic in the middle of the night that made me recheck the satellite and drone images of the hospital construction site.
I found the marshaling area on the tree lined field just off site where they had used the greenhouse hoops and the blue plastic to hide from the eyes in the sky.
I saw the bulldosers covering over on the 2nd. But I couldn’t work out how the stack being covered was so neat and square. How it could take the weight of the bulldosers? Now I have seen the video of the plastic boxes in use elsewhere. Death lego.
But the virus doesn’t care what biological material sustains it, so long as the temperature is within range. In a rush to “Fix it! Fix it! Fix it!”, the Chinese may have created a biological Chernobyl. Fixing that will be an engineering nightmare.
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Konrad
What you are describing sounds like Atlantis cells. They’re used worldwide to provide relatively inexpensive rainwater water storage.
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Treeman,
no, not Atlantis Cells. I have no images of what went into the pit between the 1st and 2nd. However the plastic boxes I am referring to were so ubiquitous they were part of Chinese black humour online last month. I imagined they were just the flat pack coreflute style often seen used in earthquakes etc. But I recently saw an image of what they were talking about (Caution – images may be disturbing): https://twitter.com/i/status/1225584071721521154 Strangely they no longer appear to be in use.
I had thought “the pit” may be a blackwater processing facility, but it was dug almost 2 stories deep and may be below the water table. Also there is another circular holding pond else where on the site built above the water table.
The slider graphic on this page https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105 shows the blue tents erected off the worksite in a grass field (around center frame). The tree line between the field and worksite is retained throughout construction. To the left is the pit (grey and black rectangles).
The entire build was turned into a television spectacular with drones and time lapse footage. There was no need to leak footage, there was total media saturation. But someone wanted to take the risk to get this video out: https://twitter.com/i/status/1224424781442883586 why? What was so important about the pit?
In the time lapse drone footage, cranes can be seen lifting small units into the pit before backfilling starts on the 2nd. But whatever they are lifting is coming from the blue tent side, not the road delivery side.
I don’t know what is in the pit or what was under the blue tents. But some worker seemed to wave a red flag.
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Konrad The links don’t really help.
How can you be certain there are no atlantis cells and the whole thing is not a stormwater bio retention basin?
It’s a large site with water adjacent so a bio basin seems logical. The white fabric appears to be geofabric and the black boxes may well be Atlanta cells covered in thick black plastic.
One site on which I’ve worked has multiple bio retention basins so the pond may well be a sediment pond for construction purposes.
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There are many possible explanations, but there are anomalies that can’t be easily dismissed.
I have experience with planning mobile crane operations from tiny 11 tonne city cranes to 250 tonne 12 wheel steer Liebherr monsters. (It’s certainly monstrous when you have to sign the blue book). I also have experience with complex drainage including bioremediation systems for large volumes of contaminated stormwater.
I’m sorry the links don’t help. I can’t hold your hand and give you time stamps for 10s of videos. You should be able to check for yourself. 40% of the site marsh with standing water before construction. A pit lower than water table? No piping in or out? The isolation of the blue tents from the construction site? Crane lifts coming from the tree line near the tents not the access road?
It can’t be stormwater. My most innocent explanation would be emergency blackwater containment with processing to be worked out later. But that still doesn’t tick all the boxes.
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I think that if applying cold hard logic to dealing with an outbreak of as yet fully unknown proportions, if they cant cremate bodies fast enough they need a mass grave….
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I believe the issue is a little different. It seems they held off high volume cremations until the problem could no longer be hidden.
Current reports have 7 crematoriums in Wuhan now working 24/7 with no services allowed, to prevent delays.
There are unconfirmed images from Grundong, possibly indicating that attempts to hide deceased by not sending them to cremation have occurred there.
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Could you provide links Konrad ?
So we are able to see the evidence ?
And assess it for accuracy !
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It seems that the the first — and perhaps only — well-documented case reporting asymptomatic spread of coronavirus was based on faulty information.
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Off Topic
No East Coast Lows before 1998 reports ABC?
https://www.coastalwatch.com/surfing/5861/east-coast-lows-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly
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ABC Report
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/what-is-an-east-coast-low-wild-weekend-weather/11936190
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The first ABC link’
mentions East Coast lows in the 1890’s Dennis !
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No it doesn’t Bill, the ABC link is the bottom link, the top link contains the history.
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The top link is not ABC
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Ahhhhh !
Well spotted then !
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Who is Kate Doyle?
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Oh, I get it Kate suggests that ECL’s are dangerous and are the product of mans carbon emissions. Stay indoors snowflakes.
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As someone who lived in East Gippsland for ~20 years
I can assure everyone that East Coast Lows are
A permanent ‘Feature ” of the East Coast of Australia.
Yes the rain can be intense !
And many of us spent the time indoors
Dry & warm for three days or so.
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DHS: Race not a factor in coronavirus transmission
Here in Australia I’d like to think we are better than that.
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Treeman, I dont think australians are racist, I think people dont express themselves properly which leads to the perception of racism, however, people now label a lot of nonsense as racism- blame toxic PC for that.
One thing I am not ruling out is that this may also be a “selectively impactful” virus. If we find that one genetic group is hit much harder, well it is what it is. If its disproportionately harder hitting then we have to start asking sone very uncomfortable questions.
However, lets deal with facts for now. The other side to science is that we also need to create hypotheses to frame investigations, and sometimes it dredges up spectres of things we’d rather not think about, but lets deal with that only if we have to go there…..
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I saw a video last night on a news show of an asian woman being attacked on a New York subway and her attacker appeared to single her out for being asian and wearing a facemask, before other people could wrestle her attacker to the ground.
Assuming the attacker was of sound mind, clearly a form of unease is forming in the USA about this also but may also indicate the MSM is not helping if it triggers people who are susceptable to being influenced easily, to commit acts of panic or anger.
Its important to keep a cool head on all this, the MSM and secrecy certainly dont help….
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Vox is a big left wing news source so the usual trigger words are, Western Culture, Xenophobia, Bigotry, China and Trump.
Also using a US Presidents actions or words from 1882 is a real stretch and echoed the approaching Eugenics era that was adopted by academia and certain politics.
So the premise is isolating or rejecting Communist China is bad and enabling the spread of of a potential nation destroying virus from China is good, or Chinese nationalism good Western nationalism bad, no surprises here from the mad left.
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Vox has been utter garbage for many a year. Even centre-left Youtubers like Tim Pool rag on Vox regularly.
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Really doubt we are all that much different to most places Tree
We have the usual mix of decent people and ratbags
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OT we’re having flooding rains here in SEQ. Dam levels are rising forecasts are for another week of rain. Malcolm Roberts and Bjorn Lomborg are ripping into “hockey schtick” Michael Mann.
Happy on a few fronts today are we!
[Happy but off topic. Subthread moved …. Please post more carefully. A bug means I can’t move this comment and all responses to it have moved but been orphaned on the previous post which was about this topic! — Jo]
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Oh, that explains my mystification on the last thread!
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Sweet Old Bob,
I share your concern about the virus spreading to Africa.
There has been one reported case in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Airlines continues to fly to China.
There are roughly 2 million Chinese nationals working in Africa. There are 20,000 Chinese owned business in Africa and there are a number of large Chinese financed and run projects such as the $12 billion, Nigerian coastal railway.
https://www.theafricareport.com/22909/coronavirus-africa-puts-china-in-quarantine/
China is very serious about stopping the Wuhan virus in their own country.
Death penalty for those concealing contacts or refusing isolation.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/cruise-line-bans-china-citizens-outrage-as-doctor-who-sounded-alarm-over-virus-dies-idUSKBN20003J
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Jo on this issue,
We all want to hear Good News !
But as mentioned by others
We also need to be skeptical about these figures
Are they fiddled with by the Chinese government ?
For political purposes ?
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Possibly they are also worried about a collapse and de-investment from business….
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Imagine a world without diseases from China and Africa
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Gotta love The City in London….
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/07/china-contract-europe-near-recession-world-holds-breath-coronavirus/
“Chinese financial shock gathers steam as world holds its breath on coronavirus
“A major slowdown in China could trigger recession and defaults in other parts of the world
“Capital outflows from China have begun to accelerate and the first concrete trade data from Asia have exposed a drastic disruption of supply chains, raising the risk of a broader global financial shock unless the coronavirus is brought under control within days.
“Analysts are already downgrading growth forecasts sharply as the de facto lockdown of Chinese cities engulfs most of its core economy, extending as far as Guangzhou, Tianjin, Ningbo and the crucial industrial hubs of the greater Shanghai region. Almost 400 million people are now under some from of coercive quarantine.
““We’re expecting a serious contraction in the first quarter. It looks like quite nasty numbers,” said Freya Beamish from Pantheon Macroeconomics. The group’s base case is that true GDP – as opposed to the ‘smoothed’ official figures – will fall to minus 1pc….
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meet Dr. Charles Lieber, eminent in the field Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry/Chemical Biology Department charged by DOJ
https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2020/02/chair-of-harvard-universitys.html
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eh? huh? China sending military scientists to Western universities to improve People’s Liberation Army’s capabilities. https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2020/02/china-sending-military-scientists-to.html
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Dr. Charles Lieber, eminent in the field Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry/Chemical Biology Department charged by DOJ
There is a lot that is not highlighted by the media about Dr. Lieber.
1- It is ridiculous to pretend that he traveled 5 times last year to Wuhan without the University being aware of it.
2- His research has nothing whatsoever to do with bio-engineering. He is a chemist. He is trying to perfect a way of detecting individual virus using nanoscience. To have a gadget that would carry out almost instantly a great many tests on a single sample for a vast variety of viral infections – flu, coronavirus, HIV, HPV, HSV etc.
Such a test would make it far easier to isolate those who are infected and to PREVENT the spread of an infection. It is the very tool that would make the use of biological weapons LESS attractive.
He is clearly being smeared which suggests to me that the USA does not want its numerous biological laboratories worldwide to lose their potency.
Nanosensor peers inside cell
It sure is a wicked world out there. 🙁
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So hes been charged because his invention might stop a pandemic through advanced detection?
Sounds about right.
Presumably big pharma will sell less drugs if hes successful..hmmmmm…..
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Perhaps the reason for this apparent slowdown is the lack of virus detection kits. No kits, no diagnosis. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFmjSKuBAs8
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Are the Chinese government ( or provincial government ?) limiting the corona death count
By limiting the number of detection kits sent to hospitals
So that some of the deaths cannot be attributed to Coronavirus ?
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Yes.
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I would be hesitant to celebrate the apparent fall in the rate of infection. In Wuhan the hospitals including the recent 10 day constructed field hospital and converted stadiums etc are overflowing and it is probable that many infected are staying home. It is reported that police are currently going door to door to find infected individuals and quarantine them. I can believe that, it is sensible. The number of claimed recoveries varies but the official figure is 2,084. A disturbingly small number given the 724 admitted deaths. Assessing the mortality rate as deaths divided by infections is misleading. It should be deaths divided by recoveries. The problem is that as hospital intensive care beds fill and people are put into temporary, overcrowded facilities like stadiums while simple things like oxygen bottles run out the death rate escalates.
Outside China there are now 12 cases in the US, 2 of them person to person transfer in country. Australia has 15 cases. It will take a few weeks to establish whether the virus is spreading.
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opps, that calculation should have been deaths divided by total (deaths + recoveries)
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That’s ~ 25% death rate !
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Given that people from Wuhan could fly into the West Friday week ago I would expect that we would already have seen some person to person infection. The only cases so far appear to be close contacts — immediate family, which is encouraging. Though it is possible that infected arrivals may only be starting to shed now, and thus it may be another week or two before we see secondary infections start to show symptoms.
What is happening on the Diamond Princess is very important. sigh.
But yes, I agree that we want to see deaths/recovery — but if recovery takes 4 weeks and death takes 2, even that statistic will be biased high. The number of recovered only overtook the death tally a week ago, so that ratio has been rapidly changing. And in reality what we need a large population samples of antibodies which show the subclinical infections. The most important numbers will be deaths / total infections.
I repeat, average incubation is 6 days, not 14.
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Yes the ship will tell all about the statistics when managed in a first world country (Japan) but remember Jo, The Coronavirus is not a hot weather phenomenon, these viruses die off over Summer. That’s why Indonesia, Philippines etc aren’t big infection zones – they’re in the tropics.
I expect the Australian infections will recover rapidly too. As contagious as this might be, hot weather is going to end it.
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Deaths + recovery = total infections.
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Deaths+recovery+ those still sick=total infections.
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How does anyone know. The Chinese have been coming down hard on Journalists for being too honest. They are now enforcing Home Quarantining so these numbers are invisible. This seems more about “Lies” buried in Enigmas hiding inside Riddles!!!
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There may be another reason why the curve is slowing…
China may have hit a limit on the resources it has to detect new cases.
https://www.ccn.com/professor-says-coronavirus-infecting-50000-day-he-may-be-right/
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Diamond Princess update:
And to give people some idea of just how hard this is to contain, Taiwan is now advising people who live or visited areas in Taiwan that ship passengers also visited to self isolate.
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Must say I am looking forward to my upcoming cruise in April >.<
Not sure if it has been mentioned previously, but the RCL (Royal Caribbean) Anthem of the Seas is also on alert and 4 passengers have been hospitalised in New Jesery (USA):
https://www.businessinsider.com/cruise-docked-new-jersey-coronavirus-quarantine-2-2020/?r=AU&IR=T
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The figures announced by NHK would mean a bit more if we had an age profile of the full passenger list.
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It’s dropping way too fast Jo, it should have slowed while going upwards, then flattened, then slowly dropped away. But instead this went from fast up to fast down.
Who can swallow that?
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Not so WX. As I said, this is not the total number of cases dropping — which would be implausible. We are only talking about the rate of the new additional cases and given the extreme quarantine measures applies, I find it believable.
You are mistaking the graph above for total infections which is still looking very exponential, but has a tiny slight “elbow” off the previous direction. Think derivative of infections.
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I knew it was the new cases Jo, I just think the change in the change is too sudden and too great to be credible. The cooperative and also uncooperative lock-down process has decreased data flows, not increased it. There are now ~400 million Chinese in lock-down. Just look at the recent videos of positive cases being told at hospitals that they can not take any more people, and are forcd to send them home to their families. And the infected are saying in reply they will just infect their entire family if they must go to their homes and wait it out. I think we’re looking at that lack of data.
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That may be, but I’ve been watching the #coronavirus river of tweets, and even 1-2 weeks ago hospitals in Wuhan were turning people away and people were dying undiagnosed at home, so that’s not a new development.
The data is what it is, as warned at the start “assuming this bears a faint connection to reality”.
What I’m watching more closely are the figures from everywhere outside China. Esp Australia / US / UK where the curve has flattened ex for That Ship.
I’m hopeful the West can gain control and then have the resources to help those poor Chinese sods caught up in this disaster.
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Jo, I thoroughly trust and respect your judgement and perspectives, I hope you’re right. I also hope humanity learns some important lessons from this. Agree re the Japanese cases to date, in particular. The lack of mortality and the very high a-symptomatic rate is what sticks out for me.
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This could be seen as a reverse hockey stick, if so it’ll always be referred to as the Corona droop…….
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🙂 🙂
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lol 😉
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There is some suspicion that a Chinese equivalent of a ‘Ministry of information’ is manipulating the stats for economic purposes. They want to get the Chinese economy rolling again after the (extended) New Year’s holidays, and showing ever increasing infection rates would counter that endeavor. It’s all wild speculation of course, but hey, we are talking about the government that threatened their doctors for speaking out about the virus in the early days, so…
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Post updated. Graph updated. 3 new cases on the cruise ship. Total tallies updated.
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Indeed, the rate has increased again on the 7th and the previous slight drop will be a minor deviation on a cumulative plot, similar to the anomalous rise on Jan 27. So far the best cumulative fit seems to be a geometric progression with a factor of around 1.35.
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Thanks Jo
Noted the uptick on Worldometer Daily new Cases for Feb 7 and hope it’s not a portend of the Jan 29 uptick which kept going up. Also noted the tiny slight “elbow” off the previous direction on the Total Cases graph. What is interesting about worldometers info is the Growth factor Daily cases which has been above 1 for the last week just below 1 until Feb 7. According their rationale there was a positive sign from Feb 4 to Feb 6.
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One of the best articles I have seen so far !
An interview by a Straits Times journalist with a Dr Peng from one of the hospitals in Wuhan
Dated the 6/1/2020
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu
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Thank you. Reading it again and you’re right, it’s the full bottle.
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Thank you for this link Bill. Others should read it.
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This was interesting in support of the mode of operation of the virus:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu
“However, if the count of lymphocytes continues to fall, it is dangerous because the virus continues to replicate. Once a patient’s immune system is demolished, it is hard to save a patient.”
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Not good news https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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While useful
It is not the “full bottle” as Treeman says.
It is a secondary source.
Not actual reporting from within Wuhan
And the medical situation there from a member of medical staff there.
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Bill did you not read the post you linked to?
It’s an interview by the Caixin Reporter with Dr Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital. That’s about as close to reporting from within Wuhan as you can get. Caixin is a respected source of information and linked to WSJ Straits Times and Toyokezai in Japan.
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Oops. Apologies Bill. I read your comment before Raving’s link but the comments about Caixin stand. Interestingly it’s now paywalled so please I pdf’d it while it was up on screen.
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Yes it is the same report. Herecis the link to the JAMA article https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=020720
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Saved a 1000 word copy
I will post it if needed.
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Just came across this link . . . . .
https://www.intellihub.com/entire-family-of-five-dies-in-quarantine-more-families-feared-dead-after-being-locked-inside-homes/
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How reliable is this source “Intellihub’ ?
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Good question . . . . . these days . . . . they’ve been around for a while and over the years I’ve found that when I’ve referenced them against other material I thought was from reliable sites they seemed reasonable . . . . I’ll keep an eye out to see if this is confirmed. They’re not a site I visit on a regular basis, it was a link on another site. If you read the ‘about’ page on the site it gives a history.
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What a way to go, RIP.
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The date is 4th of Feb 2020 at the beginning.
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for the record:
4 Oct 2019: NYT: Australia Just Had a Bad Flu Season. That May Be a Warning for the U.
By Donald G. McNeil Jr.
Australia had an unusually early and fairly severe flu season this year…
This year’s Australian outbreak began in April, two months earlier than usual, and persisted into October…
Alarming early reports (LINK) said the number of deaths might surpass those in 2017, but that did not quite happen. (The country did have more positive flu tests than ever before, but that was in part because far more tests were performed.)…
Direct comparisons of mortality rates are difficult, because Australia counts only deaths in which a hospital declares influenza the cause; there were 662 this year, and 745 in 2017.
In 2017, Australia’s deadly season set off alarm bells in Britain, where tabloids featured headlines about the “killer Aussie flu.”…
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/health/flu-australia-america.html
14 Jan: BrisbaneTimes: Queensland’s record flu season killed five a week in 2019
By Stuart Layt
Queensland suffered through its worst year for flu for nearly two decades in 2019, with an average of five people a week dying from the disease.
Queensland Health has confirmed 264 people died as a direct result of contracting influenza in 2019, with 68,148 lab-confirmed cases of the disease officially recorded.
That was an increase of over 500 per cent on the previous year’s total of 43 deaths, after a relatively quiet flu season in 2018.
The flu season in 2017 also resulted in 260 deaths, but with a lower number of overall confirmed cases, with 56,618 that year…
The state Health Department confirmed 2019’s numbers were the highest annual number of influenza notifications in Queensland since the disease was made notifiable in 2001…
“Last year’s influenza season started particularly early, partly caused by people returning from overseas where immunisation programs may not be as formalised and mature as Australia’s,” Dr Dhupelia said…
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-s-record-flu-season-killed-five-a-week-in-2019-20200114-p53rgv.html
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Influenza Activity Surveillance 2019
Please note that many people do not get tested for influenza and that there may also be some delays in reporting confirmed influenza cases.
Therefore data presented here may be underestimating influenza activity…
There have been a total of 310,011 laboratory confirmed notifications of Influenza in Australia for 2019, at the start of 17 December…
https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/news-media/2019-influenza-statistics/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvs2Y19bB5wIV1SMrCh0iCAGNEAAYASAAEgJIp_D_BwE
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6 Feb: Deutsche Welle: How will the coronavirus affect the world economy?
Less consumption, idle factories, broken global supply chains. It’s not just the Chinese economy that is suffering from the spread of the coronavirus — but the moment of truth is yet to come.
by Insa Wrede
The outbreak of the coronavirus is meanwhile rippling through the global manufacturing supply chains, affecting especially the car industry. The world’s fifth-largest carmaker, Hyundai, for example said on Wednesday it had to close all its car factories in South Korea because it had been running out of components made in China…
Executives at a number of carmakers and auto parts suppliers warned that plants in Europe and the United States were just weeks away from being forced to close.The entire industry depends on a global network of suppliers, with parts originating in China often passing through companies in several countries before being built into cars in Europe and the US.
In Germany, carmakers such as VW and BMW have announced the temporary closure of their production plants in China, saying they expect to resume production next week in accordance with guidelines from authorities. However, those plans could be reviewd if the coronavirus continues to spread.
Industry analysts already say the impact of the virus on car sales and parts procurement could be bigger than from the outbreak of the SARS epidemic in 2003…
Ifo has calculated that a drop of 1% in China’s GDP due to the coronavirus could cut German GDP by 0.06% now…READ ALL
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-outbreak-china-and-the-world-economy-worse-than-sars/a-52253833
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From the stats at the top of the page being:
“Infected 34,887 Deaths 724 Recovered 2,076 John Hopkins CSSE”
This bothers me.
Because from a data set perspective, these numbers are measuring different points in time of the studied population. These aggregate numbers are measuring a hypothetical cohort of 2800 people that have Died or Recovered from the virus. The ratio at that point in time for that cohort is the bother.
There is another cohort being those individuals that are known to have become Infected with the virus but have not yet resolved to one of the two allowed final states, which will from the sounds of things take about 3 weeks to resolve for each.
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The Chinese reaction has been so severe, and so difficult to keep from world view, that one has to
suspect considerably more here than meets the eye.
The Chinese are always subject to political considerations, which often trump what we in the west might generally call
‘Human Values.
Consider: an already difficult situation with Hong Kong was made far worse. It is unlikely to gain independence no matter how
large the psychic split gets, but major additional estrangement will kill it as the transfer financial center for the mainland.
Consider: the split with Taiwan was already widening. A population there might feel the chaos of the refugee travel back and forth
might represent a deliberate attempt by China to infect the island. If there were ever a moment for independence, it might come
in the immediate aftermath of this crisis.
Consider: no western company executive will again be likely to be sanguine about single or majority sourcing of manufacturing in Wuhan.
This reinforces all the negative stereotypes of risks in China and sets them back decades; one can trade with them at arms length but they are
not like other countries. There are a few international conventions that we follow; respect for the broadcast spectrum, laws of the sea, etc.
Cooperation in epidemic control is one of these. While the notion that this is an escaped bio-weapon is probably fever-swamp BS, the secrecy
and dissembling has a similar effect on world health. This is Important. The Chinese were virtually guaranteeing the spread of this virus
by their secrecy. The world may not see this as much different that a deliberate spread.
For centuries China was a society closed to the world, by their choice. The modern world wouldn’t permit this. But it will permit a psychic isolation,
and a cultural mistrust.
The odd nutcase in the west beating an Asian looking person wearing a mask is clearly the act of a deranged person, but it is also the symptom of what may be a cultural
shift.
At what point the the sequence of MERS, and SARs, and now this become a deep seated view that there is simply a flaw in the Chinese culture and we have to be more careful?
Combining Chinese misbehaviour with Chinese misfortune is not intellectually rigorous, but that’s the way our minds work (see “Thinking Fast & Slow”).
As a resident of a port city, I am aware that when ships from a few undeveloped countries dock, the crew is not allowed on shore, for the same reason that we get a
whole bunch of shots before we go to certain countries. This has been an issue for a few professional civil libertarians, but the health authorities have been unbending.
But now the world’s most populous country is temporarily on that list.
It is likely that in a few months things will appear to get back to normal. But things may never really be the same again.
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Seven new cases in Singapore Published three hours ago. There are now 40 cases in Singapore.
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For what it’s worth, here is the latest cluster of cases from France:
• A Briton contracted the virus in Singapore at a business conference at the Grand Hyatt Hotel attended by 94 foreigners (including some from Wuhan) on Jan 20-22
• Flew to a French ski resort at the height of the ski season
• Infected 5 others with close contact at the resort, plus 6 more being closely monitored for the virus
• Briton flew back to UK
• Subsequently diagnosed with coronavirus in UK
• 1 new victim is a child that attended 2 local French schools which are being closed, with pupils monitored
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/02/08/schools-closed-as-five-brits-including-9-year-old-stricken-with-coronavirus-in-france/
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New study an eye-opener on how coronavirus is spreading and how little we know. A study published Friday in the medical journal JAMA found that 41% of the first 138 patients diagnosed at one hospital in Wuhan, China, were presumed to be infected in that hospital.
This is big news. In plain English, it means that nearly half of the initial infections in this hospital appear to have been spread within the hospital itself. This is called nosocomial transmission. (Doctors use big words to hide bad things: Nosocomial means caught it in the hospital.)
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First spotted the above study on CNN Live TV
Conclusion at CNN:
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Every survivor has antibodies ( Immunoglobulin) to the disease. This could be used to treat some of the more severely ill new sufferers while waiting for a cure to be developed
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The death/recovery ratios are currently valueless because of the small number of completed sickness cycles and the fact that we are only hearing about the hospital treated cases.
The truth requires knowledge of what is going on in the millions of apartments and homes in the affected regions.
Most likely we will get a definitive answer from those cases identified and supervised on the cruise ships and our isolation units.
That requires several more weeks for the sicknesses to run their course.
The timescale appears to need 5 weeks from initial infection to recovery or death.
So far , it has only been five weeks since the Chinese acknowledged a problem.
We should try not to panic over Chinese data that is highly unlikely to be helpful and may be actively misleading.
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Disturbing news :
This source is a noted anti Beijing online media based in New York But they do have links in China.
This article cites information on the number of cremations happening in Wuhan at one government run cremation business.
It seems the number of cremations has jumped 4-5 times above the usual rate in pre Corona virus Wuhan.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclusive-funeral-homes-in-coronavirus-ground-zero-cremating-dozens-of-bodies-a-day_3228938.html
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This drop is probably not because of a genuine slowdown but due to the Chinese Government’s change of definitions…
Those who test positive but show no symptoms are now removed from “infected” counts! Probably to help bring down the figures, knowing it will lose face on the 9th of February otherwise.
As Zero Hedge reported earlier today, “the Chinese National Health Commission quietly changed its definition of Coronavirus “confirmed case” in the latest guideline dated 7th February. As a result, going forward patients who tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed.”
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-10-china-changes-definition-of-infected-to-rig-officially-reported-coronavirus-numbers.html
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