Amazing. Sinbad reports on the situation in Iran. He is a commenter here who speaks the language. I can’t confirm this except to say that #Coronavirusupdates Iran looks like everything he is describing. Officially there are only 388 cases and 34 deaths. But on twitter, just like China, censorship and denial and so much more. Mass graves. Corrupt officials. Mass spraying of the streets. But if there is no attempt to stop it spreading (no lockdown like China has done) this will truly run wild. Those poor people. Germany closed flights in January, related to other problems in Iran. In the last week Iraq, Oman, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, UAE, Kuwait all closed borders with Iran. Australia, with lower medical standards imported a case from Iran today instead. – Jo
UPDATE: Finally, today the Australian government banned arrivals from Iran without a two week holiday stopover somewhere. That’s a lot better but should be mandatory proper quarantine. The government now has the arduous job of tracking the 40 people (or more) she may have infected and the people those victims may have infected (their families). Those 40+ people now have the stressful wait to find out if they got “lucky”. Hopefully they’ll all survive and the virus doesn’t spread wildly. Why did we take this risk?
PS: As Chiefio says: The virus can’t walk…
“How to prevent and stop the spread is easy. But it will not be done.
The virus has no legs nor wings. It can not move from country to country on its own.
Stop international and inter regional travel for 40 days. During that time, test everyone from any region with disease. Those infected go off to disease camp and stay there until dead, or cured plus any relapse time possible. Workers in the camp have separate quarters area from the sick and do not return to the outside population until 40 days after the last case is discharged.
Hi all,
A bit of update on the Iranian front since my last post1- The regime has no plan to quarantine. Multiple officials including the ‘president’ have come out and refuted it as ‘unscientific’ and ‘backward’.2- The regime views everything from a security lens. Consequently, regime mouthpieces have already stated that the ‘enemy’ will seize upon any chance to bring the country to a standstill in turn leading to the toppling of a an extremely hated and weakened theocracy. The fascisti are extremely paranoid at this stage. This means that the mullahcracy is committed to the exact opposite of what the rest of the world is doing. As i stated in my original post, they have no intention of controlling it. As the architect in Matrix put it ‘there are levels of survival we are prepared to accept’. The population is expendable.
3- An MP for the city of Rasht, capital of Gilan province along the Caspian sea, has described the situation as ‘horrific’, based upon burial numbers from the city’s main cemetery, claiming that the number of deaths are much higher. However, he does not dare to tell how many due to ramifications.
4- The above is mirrored in reports of 2000 freshly dug graves in the city of Qom over the last week or so. Chinese despots build hospitals in 7 days, the mullahs dig thousands of graves in one week. There are multiple reports, citizen journalism, of people of all ages and sexes dying quite quickly, 2-3 days, and being hurriedly buried covered in lye. Relatives either being told to keep their mouths shut or bought off with some small lump sum. This common practice by the regime.
5- Another council official from Tehran has made a claim of 15000 infected for the entire country. This was a few days ago.
6- The actual numbers? No one knows. The regime is not interested. They are not monitoring nor do they have any protocols in place. The numbers of available kits are minuscule.
7- However, arguably the number one authority on this thing Dr. Drosten at Charite, believes numbers of infected to be very high, at least between 5000-10000, and probably much higher. Of all the countries, he is most worried about Iran. This podcast is in German but i have read a Persian excerpt. It would be good if German speakers could translate the gist of this podcast. https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html
8- A bit more on Dr. Drosten. Interestingly, Drosten believes the mortality rate to be lower which if true would make reported global infection numbers a joke. https://www.bccourier.com/enormous-amounts-of-virus-in-the-upper-throat-area/
9- Most pharmacies in Iran have run out of masks, hand sanitiser and gloves. Some people have attempted 50 pharmacies in the capital in vain being forced to travel to the neighbouring provinces to secure some. There are reports on shortages of alcohol as well. Some medical staff have died already. Some in their 20′s.
10- There are recordings coming out with medical staff telling about the chaos at hospitals and lack of supplies, equipment, plan or proper protocol. Many hospitals have been turned completely into corona wards, turning away everyone else. There are reports of 20 people dying in one Tehran hospital in one shift alone. However these cannot be corroborated independently since the government has begun a vast censorship effort.
11- One thing is certain, the brave medical staff are doing their best to combat this thing on their own. Correction, Khamenovsky did release a clip form an undisclosed location praising their efforts. Staff have been told by senior doctors and specialists that the time to leave would be now since they may not be able to later on due to coming down or putting their families at risk. However, it should be too late for that already. As far as i am aware, staff have rejected these offers although many are really scared since they are pretty much operating in darkness. Some are reporting family breakdown and a sense of paranoia since support or accurate information from above is non existent.
12- The WHO should have taken over the Iranian situation last month but as always the UN is doing the usual vacillation routine. Rwanda anyone?
13- So is the mullahcracy doing anything? Absolutely. How about this; 3 year sentences and lashing have been introduced with 24 ‘rumour mongers’ arrested already. All ‘Israeli and CIA agents’ no doubt! Some have been cautioned and released. A team of the country’s top medical experts were told at a meeting with health ministry officials a few days ago that the minutes should be treated as top security material. They were later warned by IRGC to keep their mouths shut or else. A few have broken ranks and revealed what happened during the meeting. In short; all proposals by the experts, following international efforts and guidelines, were dismissed. In other words, there is no plan. ‘Things must flow as normal, disruption are foreign enemy efforts etc.’.
14- The German government has finally revoked the infamous Mahan Air’s, Corona Air or Terrorist Air, operating permits in Germany. Unfortunately, the damage is already done.
15- In an interesting twist, the Chinese government is now worried about flights from Iran. Yes, you have read it right. The Chinese regime is afraid of imported Corona virus! https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052740/china-quarantines-63-aeroflot-passengers-after-traveller-iran
16- Here is for those who believe mullahs to be serious die hard fanatics with apocalyptic ambitions. Reports were made this week about 53 prominent mullahs from the epicentre, Qom, packing their families and relatives into a privately chartered passenger plane and flee to the port city of Mah-Shahr in the south. Apparently, they have been housed in a guarded area in the outskirts. Once locals found out, they rushed the local government building demanding an answer in regards to why such large number of people from this virus hotbed had been flown in. They received the usual answer; disappear or disappear.
17- The above is mirrored in other reports of some officials moving their families abroad or leaving Tehran and other major cities. Some regime henchmen have openly admitted that the country will be facing ‘very serious next 7-10′ days.
18- I would caution against believing these numerous reports of regime apparatchiki coming down with the virus. As Iranians say; once they’re dead, we’ll believe it. The regime exercises something called Taqiya or outright pretending/lying as a legitimate tenet of their creed. Projecting one’s own attributes to these criminals is a serious mistake. They have no morals or principles. Would they fake illness to pretend ‘we are all in the same boat’? Absolutely. The reality is that they are hunkering down in safety allowing the pandemic to burn itself out.
19- Remember our friend Harirchi the deputy health minister promising to resign if the numbers were even close to 25% of the stated 50 Qom casualties? The hospital official death toll of 210 as of Thursday evening has been released. The Qom MP Frahani who released the initial 50 number has maintained a daily death rate of 10 per day for the city but that was a few days ago.
20- Actual numbers? I am guessing since there is no way of knowing for sure. 100,000 – 200,000 infected and an actual death toll of 1000 already. As i mentioned in my original post, Iran will surpass China. Iran’s death toll cannot be compared to the rest of the world due to factors mentioned in earlier post i.e. systemic malnutrition and the government being the enemy of the people. North Korea, Yemen or Syria would be equivalents in regards to malnutrition and lack of infrastructure with only North Korea matching mullahcracy in its hatred of its own population.
21- How widespread is it? How about this; 7 Iranian passengers arriving at Kuwait this past week tested positive. All of them. What does that tell us?
22- 20 million Shia pilgrims visit Qom alone every year. Domestically and from Africa, India, the Gulf sheikdoms, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Pakistan etc. Major source of revenue, indoctrination, propaganda and recruitment. The show must go on at all costs.
23- This thing has not even taken off in the city Mash-had, the number one pilgrimage site. However, numbers of dead are starting to trickle through.
24- The pandemic is entrenched in Tehran now. It has started at the southern part of the city, traditional, more impoverished and more dense, and spread to the rest. As of Thursday evening, Tehran is reporting 100 dead followed by Qom at 80. In my view, the above numbers are worthless. The regime is already changing the designation to ‘respiratory related deaths’ in order to bring down the numbers.
25- Remember the sage words of the officials in regards to quarantines being ‘dated’ and ‘unscientific’? This is apparently scientific. Burning of Peganum Harmala seeds to ‘purify’ hospitals. This is an ancient folk remedy of the region lacking scientific evidence. Can you imagine? As a patient suffering from bone crunching pain, fever and reduced breathing ability being exposed to the thick pungent smoke? I can assure you, it is pretty strong. See, it’s all under control, the smoke will take care of it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgtgBCxHTGc&feature=emb_logo
26- The virus has spread to prisons, already notoriously overpopulated and unsanitary, and some of the military bases all over the country. Suffice to say, none of these institutions have adequate measures to deal with the issues.
27- Business as usual. Visitors arriving at Qeshm island in the Persian Gulf. According to Rouhani the so called president; everything will go back to normal on Saturday! This should tell you why postmodernist/post structuralist left is so in love with religious fundamentalism. There is no objective reality, just project own radical subjective wishful thinking onto external universe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=17&v=H_7pqh6B4x0&feature=emb_logo
28- Finally, as others have pointed out, Friday prayers have been cancelled, not just in the capital but in 23 cities. However, senior mullahs are raging already, demanding a return to normal claiming that; 1) having not been consulted, and 2) the virus being a product of ‘the world of infidels’ thus a potential attempt to disrupt the unity of Umma. Consequently, an urgent return to mass gatherings is needed.
I will post more in the coming days. Please ask any questions you may have and i will try to answer.
All the best
Sinbad.
His previous comments on Iran are here.
Now that we have an Iranian woman come back from Iran Infected
And work for days in a beauty parlour on the Gold Coast
Treating up to 40 women with facial massages
And then been diagnosed with COVID 19
Our DOPEY government has FINALLY acted !
From tomorrow no one will be allowed to travel directly from Iran to Australia
They will have to wait 14 days in another country.
And Australians flying in from Iran will have to self isolate for 14 days
Ho Ho Ho !
Our minister for Health Greg Hunt is a blithering idiot !
To put in Australianese : Huntie ” bugger off !
You’ve stuffed up BIG TIME.
Taking piss weak action 2 weeks late !
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Funny that…
almost the same script they’re using here:
https://www.rnz.co.nz
No doubt Scotty and Cinders have our best interests at heart… oh wait…
Anyway it was a LOVELY Leap Year (at work) today 🙂
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Broomfield is another woke dumbnut !
At least you kiwis have an election coming up later this year.
You can put the steel capped boot up his political master’s bum.
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See if it’s got Jacinda’s signature on it, Greg.
The wake up in this country (NZ) is going to be painful because it will be too late and far too little.
It’s the start of the Tertiary academic year and our borders are not closed, only selectively. How naive.
It’s election year and I will looking at exacting some revenge at the ballot box in September, as much as the system allows, anyway, and if I’m still alive to). It’s a shame H.M Loyal Opposition is so brainless and ineffective. Their leader and some front, middle and backbenchers are outrageously political animals and I’m being polite. I can understand some of what’s happening in Iran. Trouble is, it could happen here and we’re supposed to be an open democracy.
When politicians jostle for political point scoring instead of taking the nation’s needs — or even finding out about the nation’s needs — seriously, you have to wonder.
The Mob is loose.
Some of The Populace is panicking already. I’ve talked with staff at two local supermarkets so far, one on Friday night and the second on Saturday night.
Friday night in both Supermarkets was pandemonium. Face masks being worn everywhere, big gaps in (what I call) `the hygiene’ shelves. Wiped clear. #2 supermarket had managed to restock some of those shelves, and was still in the process of restocking the rest when I went through. Soaps and hand cleaners hadn’t been done but were about to be from the hand carts laden with full cartons. There was Window Cleaner on the shelves so I don’t know if it went out the door at the rate it did at #1 supermarket on Friday. No bottled water left. Fine. More stock to be brought in.
Normal closing time for both is 10pm. Friday night at #2 had no parking available — it was all full and they shut the doors at 9:30 so no fresh custom came in. Staff said they didn’t clear the store until 10.30pm. Saturday, though was back to `normal’ or slightly reduced depending on who I spoke with. I’m wondering if I should have asked after ethnicity of the panickers but chose not to.
I will be going back to #1 supermarket on Wednesday. They should be back to normal by then, easily.
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Here is the ABC’s online report of the government’s actions
The video of Hunt announcing this decision is priceless.
It show him squirming and ambarrassed having to eat
All his previous mealy mouthed statements>
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-29/australia-announces-iran-travel-ban/12013884
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Here is the latest summary from the quasi official New England Journal of Medicine.
Simplistic but two critical notes;
Minimal reporting of patients under 15….
likely mortality under 1% when mild thus unreported cases are factored in.
There is likely some sugarcoating here but I think it unlikely to be pure propaganda.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=RP
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The figures are biassed by the simple fact that China
Dominates the number of infected people worldwide !
And China had 40 years of a one child policy till 2 years ago.
As a result there are NOT many kids in China.
So any conclusions about drawn from this
About the rest of the world are spurious !
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ABC news report :
Fifth coronavirus case confirmed in NSW after man returns from Iran
By Sarah Thomas
Updated 46 minutes ago
A man in his 40s who recently returned from a trip to Iran is being treated at Westmead Hospital in western Sydney after experiencing mild symptoms.
NSW Health is urging people who have recently returned from Iran to ensure they are aware of coronavirus symptoms and seek immediate help.
Chief health officer Kerry Chant said this was the fifth person to be diagnosed with coronavirus in Sydney — the previous four have all been discharged from hospital.
“This latest case arrived in Sydney from Iran on 22 February, 2020. He did not develop symptoms until 24 February, 2020 and was seen at a hospital emergency department and tested on 28 February,” Dr Chant said.
“He was advised to be isolated at home while waiting for the test result which was confirmed positive for COVID-19 late on 29 February.”
Another man in his 50s in NSW is also under investigation for possible infection.
I wonder how many Iranians have returned to Australia in the past 2-3 weeks carrying the virus here ? Seeking to be healed in Australia’s hospitals, because thye know Iran’s are crap.
Our government is action ?
No ! Our government asleep at the wheel !
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I love criticising governments when warranted – and it often is warranted. But I do think that the Australian federal government has performed quite well on coronavirus, and that much criticism is really taking advantage of hindsight.
The govt went against the WHO early on, applying restrictions when WHO (in China’s pocket) were advocating no travel bans from China. I think a lot of govt efforts have been well aimed at restricting movement while not creating panic. There are certainly details where they didn’t do as well as they might, but overall I feel that they have done the best they could.
I watched the Greg Hunt video, and I thought he spoke just the way he always does, and that “squirming” was an inaccurate and unwarranted tag. I WANT politicians who can change their stance as the situation changes, and it seems GH has done that.
I’m no apologist for the govt, and I’ll happily rip into them when I think they have got things wrong (like, just about everything to do with “climate change”), but I don’t think they are that bad on coronavirus.
Richard Ilfeld #4.1.2.1 puts an alternative viewpoint. I think it’s a good idea to look at all angles, to be ready to change your mind if warranted, and to be slow to condemn others. Let’s face it, there’s a LOT we don’t yet know.
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Just how many of these “Chinese students” are on our HEX scheme? It would explain our universities dire need to get them here. If they die its going to cost $A billions and expose universities to [snip]AD
Has anyone noticed that our “elites” do NOT care about anyone except themselves?
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It would appear that the WHO along with governments of world countries have taken the decision to allow the virus to spread, rather than to close borders. The fact that we have self imposed quarantine from a country riddled with the virus is proof of this decision. This decision was obviously made after considering the two scenarios of economic impact from closing borders versus impacts from the managing the virus. There is no doubt that more people will die from this decision as the health system won’t be able to cope, but the global economic impact will probably be less as trade will be maintained.
What is very clear is that the government put the global economy first and human lives last, a decision they will need to live with forever and it still looks like this is all about appeasing China.
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The same Greg Hunt who killed the inquiry into what BOM‘S been doing.
https://m.thechronicle.com.au/news/greg-hunt-killed-investigation-bureau-meteorology/2786648/
He’s a very cunning operator.
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He’s a blithering idiot !
how the hell does the Liberal party in Victoria
Select such fools for parliament ?
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Common sense has rarely been seen in politicians.
Quarantine and banning arrivals from certain countries should have been the first actions taken.
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Quarantine: 4 x 10 = 40.
Forty days (and forty nights) = quarantine.
Climate Change Carbon caused time to diminish!
N.B. Didn’t ancient Persians invent/discover ‘0’ zero?
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If the situation is as serious as some make it out to be (I have no idea if it is and neither does anyone else apart perhaps certain elites) all travelling cross borders must now be tighten up. The only ones that can travel to another nation are those who have been screened properly and proven not to have the virus. That’s assuming the virus can be detected with certainty. Either we take it that seriously or we keep doing what we are doing now and take a wait and see attitude speculating if it’s turning into a pandemic, and if does then take the necessary draconian measures. Take your pick.
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‘ … it’s turning into a pandemic.’
Its already a pandemic, with huge repercussions, otherwise its a Chinese hoax.
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No it’s not. It only becomes a pandameic when the epidemic in China spreads to the rest of the world with similar death rates. We are not even close, not yet at least. If it were a pandemic we ought to see thousands of deaths by now and eventually millions. Far more people die today from the normal flu and it’s not considered a pandemic.
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It has spread to the rest of the world. New infections outside China now exceed new infections inside China. It is not as prevalent as the flu at the moment but it has exponential growth outside of China to a degree that it will far exceed the rate of flu infections before our next flu season. We are naive to this virus. Whereas the flu most people have had exposure before. That is one reason why it is more contagious and a higher death rate. It is also new and our health systems sre not set up for this.
This year, make no plans to be sick! If you need an operation you’ll have to wait longer (hospital beds will be full, maybe day surgery will be ok. If you need chemotherapy to help cure your curable cancer, this virus would be life threatening. People don’t consider these aspects when they just compare the effects of this virus to flu.
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We were naive towards the virus but actions are now being undertaken to prevent this becoming a pandemic. Whether such actions are enough or not only time will tell. More can be done and I suggested in my original post what the world should do. It’s a draconian measure but I feel it’s necessary to take the precautionary principle seriously and avoid a pandemic at all costs leading to millions of deaths.
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When I say naive, I mean that in the sense of our our immune systems. Regardless of any action or information we learn about the virus we will continue to be naive, in that sense, until the majority of the population has been exposed to it.
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We need to fast track the cashless society (Cash is full of germs and another vector of transmission). And ban supermarkets, congregations, protests and any human activity that involves more than 2 or three people in close proximity to each other. 🙂
“Starship troopers Im doing my part – YouTube”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_7FaWnlhS4
We need to have a laugh.
The other day i purchased some apple juice and noticed on the label it said “100% Plant Based”
We need to vigilant about fruit juice too….or it can not be guaranteed that the fruit juice being purchased has no beef/meat in it. If it has the “100% Plant Based” logo you can be fairly certain the apple juice does not contain meat.
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Well written and insightful post from Sinbad into the goings on in Iran thank you.
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The death rate of roughly 1% or less is illustrated by figures of fatalities per infections elsewhere such as in Japan Italy and Korea..
What matters is the manner of spread of the disease. The data if believable from China and elsewhere is that it is due to close contact of extended period. Think of the religious sect in S. Korea, the cruise ship and the transmission to family members.
Invoking social distancing quarantine and self isolation quashes the outbreak.
Here in Toronto there are 2 infections from people returning from Iran. A 3rd infection is a spouse of one of the returnees.
Cases are not soaring in Singapore, Canada Australia or other places which have infections and also seek out and test possible follow on infection
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I lived through the SARS outbreak in Toronto. Learning the simple lesson of distancing isolation and protection did not come easily. Dont recall any ‘social distancing’ talk at that time. No closing of schools, nor cinemas or such. Now it is the natural next line of defense. Plan “B” should the infection start spreading out of control
30
I think it depends on how bad the disease impacts westerners. We may find the impact socially and economically could be way more than the physical/medical toll it takes.
Or put another way, being devils advocate in this case – a virus being highly infectious doesnt mean its fatal.
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Big difference with SARS was that only symptomatic people were contiagous. Hence no need to social distance unless you were with a sick person.
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Is it time to consider the other side of the coin; that this has been a false panic.
We seem to be erring on both sides of dealing with the the threat;
the massive stupid governmental non-responses and mis-responses you have been pointing out, and the
misbegotten panic in the population stoked by an irresponsible/ignorant/politically ambitious press.
When a hurricane is coming towards my home in Florida, the response is very significant, but orderly.
There is buying, but not panic buying, except by a few newcomers who usually do it once. The governments
pull out their plans, and go through their drills. The media start running the standard warnings and advice
pieces. The public service agencies a;;; tend to their respective jobs.
No one know where, or if, the storm will hit. When and if it does, resources converge. The post storm
drill usually works out well, notwithstanding “news” folks trying to throw mud on the party on power for botching the response.
And citizens are usually amazing in helping one another.
Government has spent hundreds of millions of dollars at federal, state, and local levels to prepare to a medical emergency. Supplies were supposedly stocked.
People were trained. Hazmet suits were on the racks. The public media was briefed. “Threat levels” were established. As with big storms, we’ve had multiple experiences
over more than a century …. It is interesting to contemplate the gap between ‘Isaac’s storm’ and our most recent hurricanes, and compare to the PSanish flu and today’s response.
DO you think there are some who are purposively, or ignorantly fostering public panic far greater than the situation warrants, at the cost of executing real and needed responses properly?
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Yes.
One concern I have is that the hype may do more damage than the actual issue at hand.
Years of dealing with govt has a tendency to make you roll your eyes when people start freaking out….
30
https://www.unz.com/wwebb/bats-gene-editing-and-bioweapons-recent-darpa-experiments-raise-concerns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/
The thing that piques my curiosity is just how quickly the potential vaccine may come to fruition.
10
The known Australian infections are all evacuees so far. They have all been isolated and hospitalised. It’s only a matter of time before we have a community-based outbreak like California just had. After that it is a question of how well we quarantine the infected. It’s not if, but when, and at what rate. If we can keep the R0 down to a reasonable size then the hospitals won’t get overwhelmed which would result in poorer health care and higher CFR (Case Fatality Rate).
Distancing may help but didn’t work out too well on the Diamond Princess. They were essentially quarantined to cabins but the spread still took off, for reasons that may never be known. I suspect infected crew handling food platters or the like as the most likely, but that is pure speculation. Bear in mind that cruise ship crew quarters are densely populated, so distancing is not really an option.
I would recommend getting some non-perishables now, before the cases ramp up where you live and supermarkets get slammed. Ours was still fine in Perth, except the hand sanitisers of course, which have been sold out for a while now.
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NZ’s first Coronavirus patient made public yesterday had flown in from Iran.
Today lots of panic buying of rice, toilet paper, masks gloves and hand sanitiser.
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Did I hear correctly that the person concerned had travelled from Dubai via Bangkok? How many people were infected by that person just mixing with the crowds at DXB, which is a very busy place?
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Hi Annie. I just checked and the person came from Iran via Bali so they have passed it on to lotas of Ausy and Kiwi tourists whou are coming home soon.
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Just checked. Person came from Dubai to Auckland via Bali on Emirates flight EK450. Plenty in the report (DM) re worries about infection at Bali; rather less so about possibilities at Dubai…bizarre. DXB is huge with incredible numbers of passengers from all over; some with fairly primitive hygiene habits unfortunately.
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For the last 50 years we have been ruled by people who just want to rule with no vision or any other reason other than the desire to rule, and they don’t care if you’re impoverished or dying of some weird disease, they are all sociopaths they care nothing for anyone except themselves and the Chinese money being passed under the table.
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Don’t forget, their basic tenet is that it is all Allah’s will.
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And my basic tenet is
Do NOT believe in fairy tales
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A cynic might suggest the Iranian Government wants to see a high infection rate and then try to export it to the infidels.
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Being a practised and gnarly cynic for a while, I am wondering if countries that have a high graying population and thus attached healthcare and pension liability of them are dragging their feet.
Certainly seems that way. Boomer mass-reduction programme virus.
Going with the published fatality/age cohort, if you convert to chance of death per cohort of those that died, it comes out as:
80-89 – 51.5%
70-79 – 27.9%
60-69 – 12.5%
50-59 – 4.5%
40-49 – 1.4%
10-39 – 0.7%
So the Boomer generation is 96.4% of the deaths.
Someone wise once taught me though to not confuse conspiracy when incompetence is the better explanation…but WTFK?
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Wait & see what happens in Iran & South Korea.
Those death stats are based mostly on what has happened in China.
And to frank the Chinese stats are crap – pure propaganda crap.
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I think you may be confusing the “Boomer Generation, 1946-64” with
the “Silent Generation, 1928-45”. USA terms, I guess.
Half those aged 70-79 and all older than 80 are not considered “boomers.”
The most elderly are of the “Greatest Generation, 1901-27.”
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I couldn’t be bothered with the pedantry myself, but referring to both.
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A cynic, but a rational thinker might also think that.
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So much of the extremist Isl*m world is premedieval, dark ages. And the plagues ravaged such communities. Persian Iran is still an occupied country which has gone backwards 1200 years. It will be a worst case scenario, if not already.
My hope is for a vaccine soon and I expect records will be broken in producing one. While the viruses are getting more sophisticated, the technology for countering them has advanced incredibly since the human genome was mapped. We now know most of these viruses come from bats, often through other animals like civet cats and pangolins in the live food markets. As British gourmet Christopher Morley wrote years ago in Punch, Chinese gourmets will eat everything on four legs except a table and everything on two legs except a waiter. They are wiping out species and us with them.
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The religion of placebo.
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Bollocks TdeF.. I do not agree we know where the virus came from or even what it is, and especially if we get our info from mainstream and even non mainstream media in this case.
Persia was ahead of its time in both mathematics and medicine. Hardly medieval. I have worked with Persians and was constantly impressed by the level of education these people have. Leaders have always been a problem and bad leaders are reaching epidemic proportions. It’s not the fault of those trying to feed a family and so forth. All cultures have good people in them…
At least these people eat the things you speak of. In Australia, we just poison everything with herbicide and pesticide until even birds and frogs die to create a mono-culture. Go to the supermarket, have a look at the amount of space the poisons department occupies in it.
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Red thumb for first para. especially first word. Green thumb for second para. Mixed feelings over third but vegans should take note re. poisons (for raising non-meat crops).
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Presumably you mean with lower Corona virus quarantine standards?
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Ok, so China, Iran…and I wonder if Russia is next?
A systemic biological take down of “axis” countries?
Time will tell.
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Highly unlikely, a reduction in population won’t be too harmful for the body politic.
‘China has sent a group of experts to Iran to help combat the novel coronavirus in the country, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying announced on Friday. She said on Twitter that the Chinese experts are on their way to Iran.
‘The coronavirus disease is enemy of all, Hua said, adding “we must fight together”.
China Daily
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I shall watch with interest….
If specific mid east countries start severely suffering…..
I guess its one way to wage war or institute regieme change, without firing a single bullet.
Time will tell….
41
The virus is indiscriminate and doesn’t recognise politics or religious affiliations.
‘South Korea urged citizens on Saturday to stay indoors as it warned of a “critical moment” in its battle against the coronavirus after recording the biggest daily jump in infections, with 594 new cases taking the tally to 2,931 with 17 new deaths.’
Aljazeera
60
We shall see. If westerners suffer significantly less, then it adds useful intelligence to the matrix.
51
Intelligence?
The intelligence it adds is to confirm that Western nations, with high living standards, have better health care, better mechanisms to control disease outbreaks, better hygiene – be that sewage, drainage, waste disposal and water – and greater economic resilience to enable the costs associated with infectious disease control to be met.
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Those are all the fruit of good intelligence in action !
30
Any intelligence is good intelligence….
20
Well, the politicians as a class, over recent years, seem to have missed out on it as a whole. It’s not just individuals any more.
10
“Man with travel history to Egypt presented himself to Toronto hospital on Thursday”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-coronavirus-eight-case-1.5481000
20
In Sweden their official standpoint is no schools will be closed because kids don’t suffer from infection. They don’t seem to care kids may infect others as well. At the same time the Corona Air is still flying double routes. From Milan and Teherean. Excellence in stupidity.
70
Could be their Waterloo……..
60
Lol…that made me spill my tea 😉
40
Try not to do that. I’ve found that it does keyboards a lot of harm!
30
Iran….looks like it’s hitting the fan.
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/02/29/Watch-Clinic-in-Iran-set-on-fire-believed-to-be-coronavirus-quarantine-.html
Would be much harder to envisage this behavior if thing were still on the scale presented by the Ayatollah’s. I’d say ordinary Iranians know just where they are with it.
40
They have a very high mortality rate that’s for sure .
21
Can’t possibly do any damage. The Theocracy is under their `God’s Protection.’ Saying things like that will make the Generals liverish, you’ll be declared an enemy of the state, and it will prove the Mullah’s righteousness.
Anyone who dies is both a traitor and an Unbeliever. (Or they didn’t pray with sufficient fervor …)
That was how the Europeans treated the Plagues, and look at those death tolls. We’ve been there, done that from Justinian’s Plague 541 AD, through the Black Death of 1347 – 1353 which took out half the population of Europe, c. 50 million, the Italian Plague of 1629 (-31 c. 280,000 with 50% from Venice alone), the Great Plague of London 1665 (-66, 75,000 – 100,000 deaths), the Great Plague of Marseilles (1720 – 22, c.100,000 deaths)
Certainly the cause of infection was unknown nor how to treat it other than by isolation. It was in 1894 that Alexandre Yersin identified it as a bacillus which is now known as Yersinia Pestis. A few years later, another physician confirmed bites from rat fleas were the infectious vector into humans.
https://www.history.com/news/6-devastating-plagues
00
Mardi Gras in Sydney is perhaps is an unfortunate timing given where we are in the incubation cycle.
I hope this is not an example of what could possibly go wrong.
It really does seem more and more that governments of the world are not taking the R* seriously with this thing and the implication on the CRR.
From AU DoH:
“Of confirmed cases reported globally, the case fatality rate is approximately 3.4%. The case fatality rate in countries and regions outside mainland China is 1.6%”
Really good analysis of this today at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsJCiZTt3uc
The actions of the Oz and NZ governments seem to be trying to balance the dichotomy between the economic sustainability and the non-pharma interventions and recognise the criticality this juncture that is discussed…FWIT.
40
There are quite a few folks travel to Sydney for this festival from other parts of Australia & overseas.
An ‘excellent’ incubator
if there are any infected folk present.
Good luck with that to all of them.
41
Yep and any Iranians, Italians or Thai landing in the last couple of days for the dance party of the year…hangover starts from about next weekend.
40
Or 3 weeks after that….
40
But how many?
I remember Piers Akermann’s question about attendance figures given for the Gay Mardi Gras of 150,000 to 250,000.
He pointed out that the parade travelled 1.6 kilometres. If the crowds were packed 10 deep every metre on both sides that only added up to 32,000. He was abused no end.
I cannot say how packed it is, as I never bothered to go to view it when living in Sydney like most people I knew or worked with. A young bloke (and girlfriend)** who worked for me, went one year and reported that they had no trouble seeing the parade and the crowds where they were would have been 3 deep at most.
** along with a couple of blokes who got quite enthusiastic on the Dykes on Bikes, apparently not returned.
70
Thankfully attendance seems to be down on last year as it happens:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-29/sydney-gay-and-lesbian-mardi-gras-thousands-party-at-parade/12012588
Only a couple of hundred thousand today…
20
FWIW
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/02/29/february-29-2020-reader-tips/#comment-1290087
33
Hunt ( or his replacement ) needs to take the same action re South Korea as he has just belatedly done with Iran.
Over 3400 people now infected with the disease.
And it was just 30 odd a week ago.
So a massive un-contained infection epidemic has happened there as well.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korea-coronavirus-epidemic-almost-1000-new-cases,-first-reported-case-of-reinfection-17-deaths,-3290-infected-
70
Eight million in Hong Kong, two months of the virus, two deaths and zero protestors out protesting. And mostly the frail and elderly die. What threatened dictatorship would not like this panic since it allows them to stay in power. And that is the thread stitching China and Iran together. For the non-political, given a choice of protecting their rule and avoiding the fate of Nicolae Ceaușescu versus killing their own people, they make the Stalin choices.
Meanwhile, the panic increases. People fighting in food marts in Italy, closing schools and “deep cleaning” them on the hint of someone that traveled somewhere which might have the bug, short sellers making billions in the markets as they predict (finally) the arrival of THE black swan they predicted for years, the declaration that this is Trump’s Katrina, press out-of-breath reporting a case(s) of “unknown origin” just in case anyone becomes complacent, the wild baseless outright guesses as to what reality is, the ignoring of any science beyond the thin tissue of “gee, it could be …”, and,and, and …
Reminds one of the climate narratives. One conjectures which will kill everyone first, Greta and the Gremlins or Wu-Wu and the bugaboo. We truly are getting to that point meaning the crest of the panic likely has a bit to go. Sort of like the projection that sea level rises will wipe out all civilization by 2000. The good news is the Wuhan,one way or another, will resolve itself as either the greatest known killer in the Universe or will putter out by summer, fall at the extreme.
Business comment: Those alive during the 1987 market crash should recall two things (1) business media “analysts” and investment experts including Sir John Marks Templeton went on TV urging calm and (2) the markets more than recovered with a year. This time, all of media business are stoking the “free fall” due to the “virus” as if people will simply hermit themselves as they die as the entire economy of the worlds slips slowly off the edge of the flat Earth.
Hazarding that Yogi Berra was wrong about saying “Predictions are hard, especially about the future”, all those promoting the current round of panic will declare if not for their Paul Revere warnings and efforts, we would have all died.
So far, what are the lessons learned so far? Western politicians and government respond as they normally do and in their normal way and that’s not likely to change much other than increasing spending and taxes and imposing more constraints of people. Quarantines might work but only for a pathogen having an extreme low rate of transmission, say months. No one knows what the Wuhan transmission rate really is since people that contract it may not even know they have it (thus the unknown sources).
An interesting recap things pandemic (1918 flu) is in the Smithsonian Magazine article here: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ten-myths-about-1918-flu-pandemic-180967810/
And note their no. 10 about what actions to take (after the hysteria and panics fade). Living in a hermetic bubble is not even mentioned.
60
I totally agree with jo re climate BS but totally disagree this corona virus exaggeration. The more people that get infected the safer we will be its called natural immunity. This will be all over in 4 weeks. I welcome getting a cold every year to re energize my lung immunity. BTW I have 4 higher degrees in Biology and published 37 articles if it counts for anything. The common cold cause much more death in old people its absolutely normal get used to it!! cheers and hello to Australia
63
I’ve had similar thoughts….
32
Thanks Original Steve.
We have little next to no media info on the most important thing in all this lockdown BS and that is IMO, what infrastructure and planning has gone into feeding all these people who cannot work and move freely?
It would be good to see the question of food being addressed. What is being done to feed the people who cannot work and are living on zero income. The mortality must be very high as the winter has been bitter cold in China for example. Many i suppose are not even able to buy electricity to stay warm. Even a common cold would be fatal in those conditions.
01
Eliza, you welcome to push your barrow
In YOUR own country.
But here in Oz we will push for what is good for us.
BTW, You seem to think that we are uninformed
And that you are the expert authority because of your various degrees.
Well frankly a lot of science degrees are Bachelors of BS.
Seems like that is the case with yours.
[ Bill we prefer you critique the comment and not the person ] AD
32
BTW Eliza, if you want to claim ‘professional expertise’ here
You need to say who you are
And not be anonymous !
21
This virus has a death rate in the order of 1%, which is significantly higher than the flu.
I’ve had the flu twice in my life. The real flu. It was appalling. I don’t like to think about what this thing does to you.
90
Although western medicine can achieve a lot in some cases, in others it is close to zero. I am not convinced flu vaccines work either. Most ‘all’ the people i know who have flu vaccines still get the flu and the common cold.
20
Likewise.
I have been sceptical of an “annual” flue vaccine.
Just how much preparation, testing and trialling can be done: I suspect not much.
A couple of years ago I had a very bad reaction to one dose and now avoid them.
Just imagine the benefits of an annual vaccine? Who profits?
I’m a firm believer in vaccination having seen the effects of poliomyelitus on a few older neighbours when I was a kid.
Careless application may also have led to at least one death, I think it was in WA.
Big pharma also has a credibility gap from my perspective with the promotion of SSRIs as a “cure” for depression.
Too many young people have checked out while taking them.
KK
10
It seems that I have been immoderate.
10
Eliza, that is entirely dependent on the ability of the healthcare system to keep it to the 1%. Australia has incredible capability but quite poor capacity. Without ventilation, ECMO or even O2 therapy, that number goes up by several times as we have seen.
Just like the just in time global supply chain, our healthcare system is budgeted on the basis of historic run rates and probabilistic, risk based estimates to manage an optimized budget position. In other words, surge capacity is maybe an academic nice to have.
However, even if the primary infection wave is gone in 4 weeks (which I doubt, but nice to think), the economic malaise and system shock will be far worse. Our national income if China does not recover (check the recent NMI), will hurt and hurt soon.
With your four degrees, you can well understand that if there are seed infections right across China and these people start mingling (and forced to go to work) we are talking about a dead cat bounce for the last couple of weeks, rather than a V-shaped recovery over the next week or so.
Or maybe it will all just blow over in a a few weeks and things will just go back to normal…maybe you are right?
10
Good on you Eliza. I agree !
Scare mongering is scare mongering and the perfect recipe for those in power to gain even more power. Very dangerous to scare monger as people without a critical nature are very easily manipulated.
11
I dislike scare-mongering but I do wonder about all those new hospitals rapidly built, the rows and rows of beds in other facilities and sports stadia and the sickness and deaths of apparently well protected medics. Can you explain that?
I also feel desperately sorry for the Chinese and Iranian ordinary people; it is horrible what they are suffering.
20
China even has massive ghost cities without a population. Until we see the hospitals in operation, and in great detail, collaboratively, and with no censorship, we will never know.
20
There’s an idea….convert the ghost cities into hospitals.
From http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/21/the-myth-of-chinas-ghost-cities/
The Great Debate
The myth of China’s ghost cities
April 22, 2015
“Building a new city from the ground up is a long-term initiative, a process that China estimates takes roughly 17 to 23 years. By 2020, Ordos Kangbashi plans to have 300,000 people, Nanhui expects to attract 800,000 residents and 5 million people are slated to live in Zhengdong New District. China’s new cities are just that: new.
20
The relevance of that escapes me. So what?
10
It means there are many buildings mostly empty that can be modified to become hospitals.
The media coverage of excavators building a new hospital with such an inventory of preexisting empty buildings is farcical.
Modify existing ones.
Modify an entire city.
China has new, largely unoccupied cities.
Modify them.
30
Eliza:
catch up with the recent research on Vitamin D. You can keep your immune system tuned up much more comfortably than the way you’re following.
I’ve been working on mine every winter for four years, now in my fifth year, and I have had no colds and one (very mild) influenza. That’s down from two colds p.a. to 0.
About 40% of colds are from the human infecting corona virii. and another 40% or more from rinovirii. Vit-D seems to block both. Read the literature before trying … Almost all these ailments sweep through the captive populations during the times of the year when that population’s Vit D levels are in deficit.
I don’t take supplements but use the sunshine. (sround solar noon) You can’t overdose on sunshine — melanin is your regulator, but oral supplements can become toxic.
30
I disagree.
From https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/too-much-vitamin-d-may-harm-bones-not-help
” Harvard Women’s Health Watch
Too much vitamin D may harm bones, not help
A study shows that, for many people, less is more when it comes to vitamin D..
[Figures that the west has an epidemic of calcification of the arteries. That’s made worse because vitamin D stimulates osteocalcin production and without K2 to carboxylate the osteocalcin, it just ends up depositing on the arteries calcifying them the way i understand it. Plenty of new studies about this.]
“There’s no question that vitamin D can help build strong bones. But there may be a sweet spot when it comes to how much.
A study published in the Aug. 27 issue of JAMA found that, compared with people who took moderate amounts of vitamin D, adults who took large amounts daily not only didn’t see additional gains in bone density, but in some cases ended up worse off.
“People often assume that if some is good, more is better,” says Dr. JoAnn E. Manson, the Michael and Lee Bell Professor of Women’s Health at Harvard Medical School. “This is generally not the case, and certainly is not true of vitamin D. While there is no question that vitamin D and calcium are essential to bone health, it appears that very high doses of vitamin D don’t provide further benefits for bone health and may actually have a harmful effect.”
01
You’re missing the point eliza.
It’s to do with the TOTAL number of people requiring intensive care and literally blowing up the health system if transmission rates cannot be kept as low as possible.
Have you seen the videos of doctors and nurses mentally breaking down in China and patients and quarantined people totally going berserk because the system they find themselves trapped within has ALREADY become untenable due to total overload?
There’s more to this issue than spurting some simplified stoic resolve, as if being stoic about this is all that’s required.
I can’t remember the last time a pandemic arose with the ability to break the health system of multiple nations at the same time.
Collateral social and political – even geopolitical – damage will be more substantive than the 1% to 2% death toll once the virus burns out.
20
Another case or few in Ontario of travelers returning from Iran
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-coronavirus-cases-1.5481218
30
[…] Australia has banned travel from Iran. […]
10
In a week europe will go completely offline . Todays figures 29 februari and rising by the hour :
Italy more than 1000 infected , 29 deaths .France more than 100 infected , 3 deaths , Germany nearing 100 infected no deaths , England more than 20 infected , at least 1 death ,Holland 7 infected no deaths . The figures are rising exponentially and doubling nearly each 2 days . Within a week the whole health-system here will be overburdened , its running at nearly full capacity without any virus-patients . The pandemic alarm should have been given more than a month ago and it is a shame that the Who and Wbank are refusing to act when the situation requires this . Apparently they are completely unaware of the concept of a boomerang which will hit them straight into their faces like you australians know all too well .
50
Sindbad’s post has a strong whiff of propaganda, but I don’t doubt that the situation is worse than the government claims. This is normal for all governments.
12
Hi RoHa
I respect your opinion and your innate right to hold it. However, my original post proposing the complete stoppage of all flights between Iran and Australia was made on 25th i believe. It was finally made available online on 27th after some technical glitches. The OZ government made the move to stop said flights on 29th. At the time of my original post, most of the attention was still on China with Europe starting to take precedence. Jo Nova had already sensed the emerging threat and made the first detailed post about the Iranian situation on the 25th. She had already made a previous post about Iran and South Korea. My post was a reply to hers in order to shed some light on the what’s going on inside the country. At the time, the official number was 10-15 i believe, announced by Pinocchio Harirchi.
So let’s summarise:
1- The OZ government finally stops flights 4 days after my post.
2- The health officials, including our amigo Harirchi, are utterly exposed as the frauds they are.
3- Now, the Chinese are getting involved. Why would they if the official statistics are reliable? The Chinese are getting involved for 388 cases? Compare that with SK with much higher official numbers of infected.
4- Multiple citizen journalists have posted videos and podcasts about the desperate situation. Fakes for sure.
And you come up with the following conclusion ‘Sindbad’s post has a strong whiff of propaganda’.
Then you say the following which i find very interesting; ‘I don’t doubt that the situation is worse than the government claims’. Interesting choice of words, don’t you think?
Government ‘claims’ vs. Sinbad’s ‘propaganda’. And of course, you have no issues with said claims as you make it very clear; ‘this is normal for all governments’. Voila, a murderous totalitarian dictatorship normalised in an instance. How good is that? The false equivalency between say Australia and a brutal theocracy since ‘all governments’ do it.
And who would my propaganda serve? CIA, Mossad, MI6, Pentagon, NSA and the usual alphabet agencies i presume? 🙂
Alright everyone, nice knowing you all. It is going to be my last post guys, my cover is blown!
I wish you all the best RoHa and hope to be proven 100% wrong in all my assertions.
Cheers
P.S
That flight ban was made after may call to ScoMo.
40
Sinbad, we really value your explanations and links!
60
Hi Jo Nova
Thank you kindly. I was just joking! My sense of humour cant be that bad? You guys will get used to it. 🙂
I really liked RoHa’s post. I hope to get more like it.
All the best
Sinbad
00
Sinbad
As a person knowledgeable of the Iranian – and probably wider Muslim – culture, can you answer a question for us?
Do you think the frequent use of prayer halls/mosques on a daily (multiple times a day for some) basis, and the inability of religious ideology to get medical priorities in the front of the line behind tradition (as you have highlighted), might in fact make the Muslim world a veritable oven for this virus to incubate within?
If my own understanding of wider Islamic tradition is correct, China and other densely populated Asian countries might be the least of our worries.
Seems to me the Islamic world is a perfect petri dish waiting for something more virulent than SARS which spread very quickly in the GCC nations last time – probably because of the prayer halls, mosques, and tradition?
At least the Saudi’s have now barred pilgrims from major holy sites until the virus is no longer a concern.
40
Hi Choroin
Thank you for your interest. if I understand your question correctly, you are wandering how the systemic dogma is leading to a higher risk for the rest of us.
My informed answer can only address Iran. The gatherings continue in defiance of the global concerns and will be perfect breeding grounds for the next wave of outbreaks since many have big families. Whilst shrines are being constantly sprayed with alcohol, imagine that, with the devout going about their routine, it must be viewed as a publicity stunt since no one wears a mask and most touch, kiss, or even lick the shrines. Putting one’s face on the shrine is a common practice. They should not even be there in the first place. The dogmatic followers believe in stuff that is quite alarming. Despite being only 5-10 % of the total population, they have the potential to do some serious damage. In my upcoming post I have dedicated a section to this particular group’s abhorrent behaviour with complete disregard to public safety. Please have a read through and watch the clips. Overwhelming majority of Iranians stay away from these shrines and gatherings. They would never go there under normal circumstances to begin with. That should be a plus but they will probably get infected indirectly anyway.
As far as the neighbouring countries go, I know through conversations with Afghanis that they are fed up with theocratic brutality and dogma too. Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon have traditionally been open and mostly secular societies. I know that Iraqis are equally fed up with religious interference in their daily lives as demonstrations against mullahcracy’s involvement in the country has shown. They have paid a heavy price for their resistance but refuse to leave the streets. Hundreds have been gunned down and countless others maimed and blinded but they still fight on, even under the current virus threat. Secularism has been a constant demand. The mullahcracy’s allowance for the virus to spread could have geopolitical reasons too. Before this outbreak, they were pretty much thrown out of Lebanon and Iraq due to said protests. In Iran there were daily protests. Now, people are becoming cautious and will naturally resist gatherings. Don’t ever underestimate the deviousness of the regime.
As an observer without in depth knowledge, I would be worried most about Pakistan and Bangladesh. Extreme population density, inadequate medical infrastructure etc. However, an advantage they have is that their only pilgrimage is done when travelling to Mecca, banned now, since the Sunni branch of the religion does not engage in worshipping of shrines, idolatry, or has numerous religious figures whose graves must be incessantly visited. This is actually one of the main sources of contention between the two branches. They have public religious festivals but hopefully they can be banned if needed. That being said, there are roughly 7 million Shias in Afghanistan and another ca 20 million in Pakistan. Many used to visit Qom, mainly from Pakistan, but how many are still undertaking it is anyone’s guess. The clips I have seen give the impression that the Shrine attendance has dropped off dramatically. I would be surprised if many are still planning to undertake pilgrimage. For the following reason, the zealotry displayed by the regime’s internal underlings is mainly due to financial reasons not applicable to millions of independent foreign worshippers. In other words, entire families are dependent on government pay for displays of loyalty. All members of IRGC and the Basij militia are expected to be on call and show up when needed or the pay gets cut. The same applies to their families, they must attend or else. Again, this entire mullahcracy circus is dependent on huge doses of pretence and hypocrisy. 5-10% of the population have hitched their wagons to the regime and have no choice now but to go all the way. The alternative is no pay and ending up in the streets due to losing protection. They may have to actually work for a living. They will have to face their neighbours on their own, some might disappear. It is an absolutely miserable existence but they have made their choices. Think Vichy France but with much more animosity.
In regards to Saudis banning the pilgrimage, it goes back to a central point in my previous post. There is no equivalent to the mullahcracry in the region. No other regional ruling elite has such disregard for their population’s wellbeing or contempt for them as human beings with innate rights. Saudi Arabia is a feudal absolute monarchy with public beheadings and all sorts of human rights violation but they have banned the Haj for now. They are willing to spend on medical equipment or follow international guidelines. They don’t view their population as completely worthless or expendable. They are not at war with the rest of the world at the expense of their own population. They would not reject American or Israeli expertise when offered. The mullahcracy called Trump’s offer a joke the other day. A normal government would have accepted the offer, despite the animosity, to minimise the suffering. Remember the point I made about everything being turned into martyrdom? The more suffering the better since the casualties can be blamed on U.S. sanctions or Israel.
All the best
Sinbad
00
Please don’t go Sinbad, on the basis of one reply. You surely noticed how many people appreciated your original post. Thank you for that post and subsequent ones….don’t go away! Annie
40
You could say that I have a particular interest as I have family in Dubai…
30
Hi Annie
Thank you for the sentiment. I didn’t go anywhere. It was a joke! A bad one I guess since others have responded as you have.
I have an extremely thick skin and love a good debate. Massive update coming up next. Might not be easy on the eyes. 🙂
The gulf sheikdoms look after their own people. There is no comparison to Iran whatsoever. Again, my posts are not meant give people anxiety but to provide a different take.
All the best
Sinbad
10
Much value you insight Sinbad please stick around .
20
Hi Robert rosicka
Thank you for the sentiment. Please see my above response to Annie. I will only leave if asked by Jo Nova since I acknowledge her innate right to operate her site the way she deems fit. Not a snowflake, so more comments the better, particularly the ones that challenge my claims.
Thanks again
All the best
Sinbad
20
I expect to see more information regarding the “no wings” idea. The world has no shortage of migratory birds which intermingle with domestic birds that we farm for food. A recent report by a credible virologist confirms birds can carry coronavirus pathogens. And the peak migrations are due to start shortly.
40
That is a very scary thought.
I think I just found an actual benefit of wind turbines/bird choppers.
30
There are well known infectious diseases which humans can get from birds
But usually transmission from bird to human is limited by limited contact.
But there are exceptions when humans have large flocks of birds
for consumption like chooks, ducks, geese, pigeons etc.
Bats carry lots of viruses but are usually nocturnal and are not domesticated.
That’s why it is rare for humans to catch a disease from viruses carried by bats.
The exception is folk who care & handle bats as part of a commitment to caring for wildlife.
Eg Fruit bats but also micro bats.
here in Oz such folk are required to get vaccinated before they start doing this work.
00
No idea why my comment above is in moderation
no links !
No rude language !
00
I got as far as here –
and thought, is this http://joannenova.com.au/ or https://gatesofvienna.net/?
02
And no one is surprised that a virus supposedly originating from a market in Wuhan, located a mile from a BSL-4 lab is affecting Iran and Italy while bypassing India that is quite unaffected, despite its huge population and borders with both Iran and China?
Recently the CBC Moscow correspondent Chris Brown in his usual fashion was implying that Russian authorities were racist discriminating against Chinese and/or lying about the real numbers… Yet when one sees the Johns Hopkins map, Eastern and Northern Europe, India seem quite unaffected. The CBC Brown equivalents there, of course, have no article suggesting these countries are lying…
Perhaps, just perhaps, superimposing a geo-strategic map onto the Johns Hopkins one might start to explain a few things or two?
Is Italy the oops? Not unlike Dawn Sturgess?
Something does not add up. Just like with the CO2 farce.
10
India maybe too hot and humid for the virus to spread comfortably, while northern Italy at this time of year is chilly.
20
‘The total number of cases in Italy had jumped from 1,128 to 1,694 – an increase of 50 per cent in just 24 hours.’ SMH
10
3 more cases in Ontario related to Iran and Egypt
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/new-coronavirus-cases-ontario-1.5481839
20
The case of Iran is very sad, I do remember when it was westernised and wealthy, the women in the latest fashion clothes, the country and the shah were our friends.
Then the mullahs formented an Islamic revolution and put the country back into the dark ages.
Perhaps this virus is gods revenge for what they did to their country,as Sinbad pointed out the mullahs are all heading to safe places, maybe the good people will have had enough
and get rid of the Mullahs.
10
The technical and military links between Iran and China go back to Khomeni’s days.
Remember the Iranians firing “Silkworm” missiles at several ships back in the ’80’s?
Hmmmm…Silkworm; Not exactly a Persian sort of name….
LOTS of interesting tie-ups between China, North Korea and Iran., with Syria being an Iranian “side-project”.
Maybe the rug merchants had a “sharing” deal with the PLA bio-tech folk…..
Given their behaviour in their almost endless war with Iraq, (and the Iraqis were NO ANGELS, either, almost anything is possible.
See also: “The Twelfth Imam”..
00
Hi all
Another update on the Iranian situation. As always, these are my takes and opinions on the developments. It is based on reports coming out of Iran. Hard evidence and scientific facts? Sorry, they don’t exist since you’re dealing with a totalitarian regime that does not recognises international norms in regard to statistics or free flow of information. I will explain in detail why reliable objective statistics are almost impossible in this case. All you can do is to check my reliability against the actual future developments on the ground and analyse it rationally. Here we go:
1- The number of infected and dead? I maintain my previous estimate of +100,000 infected and 1000 dead. As you may have noticed, the official number of infected has started to jump with the current ridiculous official number standing at 978. It was 60 last week. Remember that original number of 12 dead? It is very important to keep remembering, sine the absurdity of it and the coming reality will remind you of who you are dealing with.
2- There are plenty of unconfirmed reports from all over the place. Those I will not publish but here is one example of what is being reported by citizen journalists; in one hospital alone in the city of Kerman, Soleimani’s hometown, witnesses claim to know about 40 dead in the last week. You have to remember, Iran has a population of 80 million plus and is larger than Germany, France and the Iberian Peninsula combined. It has tens of thousands of villages, hamlets and small provincial towns. Due to the regime’s chronic mismanagement and lack of planning, some of these places remain cut off for months after an average snowstorm. Many lack access to rudimentary health care. Consequently, I don’t think that we will ever find out the actual numbers. It will go on till it has burned itself out. On the plus side, Iranian summers are extremely hot with southeastern, southern and southwestern parts of the country experiencing a combination of extreme heat and humidity during the lengthy summers. Apparently, SARS-CoV-2 does not like heat and humidity. Still, I maintain that it would be foolish to take chances, the obvious mutation risk, and that WHO should take over the situation in Iran. It is all academic and abstract till one’s neighbours come down. How many people will say ‘oh, its just like flu’ at that point?
3- According to some Iranian sources, IRGC which runs many hospitals and clinics across the country, has forced the medical staff to coordinate the release of numbers of infected and dead with the intelligence branch of the organisation. Consequently, the official number will be the number approved by IRGC. Good luck with getting accurate statistics. According to one Qom newspaper reporter, local media was on top of actual numbers from the get-go but upon publishing the emerging casualties were immediately contacted by the intelligence branch and warned to not publish the news. Once the cat was out of the bag through citizen journalism, the regime adopted a new approach by allowing limited reportage on numbers but within ‘guidelines’. No one knows what the actual guidelines are since they are arbitrary and determined by the regime on an almost daily basis. Consequently, the media may have crossed the line 2 days ago without having been aware of it leading to future reprimand. We have talked about the overall confusion and chaos before. Reporters have been told to not ‘exaggerate’ or ‘give into enemy propaganda’. At the same time a nationwide security crackdown is well underway. According to the chief of regime’s cyber police or FATA, all publication of online material is being closely monitored and ‘rumour mongers’ tracked down and prosecuted. According to FATA, 90 online news sources, sites or blogs etc. have been accused of ‘propagation of false news’, 30 criminal cases initiated, 24 people arrested and 118 people cautioned so far. According to some nurses working at IRGC owned hospitals, specialists working at these facilities were ordered to come up with manuals on how to slow down or stop the spread of the virus at said hospitals. These orders were issued from the very beginning of the outbreak, while officially denying the emergence of widescale outbreak, and the manuals were not shared with other medical facilities operating outside IRGC’s reach. Please bear in mind that Iran’s top hospital in Tehran is owned by IRGC and this is where regime’s elite and top henchmen seek medical help before moving to the most advance care abroad. Operations on Khamenovsky have been made at said hospital. IRGC would be extremely averse to the virus running amok at such facilities.
4- Here is a short background on IRGC. It is the regime’s version of SS or Schutzstaffel, dominating the Iranian society. On top of their military activities including the international terrorist Quds force and the domestic security/oppression machinery, they are considered to be among the largest narcotics cartels in the world, arguably the greatest bootlegging operator in the world importing vast quantities of alcohol into the country, involved in child trafficking and sexual slavery of adults and children alike, illegal trading in organs, gambling operations in Macau and elsewhere, prostitution and brothels in Thailand, Gulf States and elsewhere, a vast global real estate empire including Canada and OZ, operation of 20 plus unofficial piers in the Persian Gulf smuggling anything from nylon stockings to components for their ballistic missile program, and complete takeover of the Iranian ‘economy’ from dam building to housing construction, still mills, roads, railways, shopping malls and cement factories, operation of airlines etc. This should explain why the FATF deadline was ignored by the mullahcracy.
5- This is from a New Yorker article. I have posted the link below.
“Kamiar Alaei, a widely recognized Iranian global health-policy expert who co-founded an innovative H.I.V. clinic in Tehran, also emphasized the tricky and still evolving mathematics of coronavirus contagion. “The mortality rate elsewhere is around one to two per cent, and three per cent in China,” Alaei, who is now a co-president of the Institute for International Health and Education, in Albany, told me. “Iran has announced thirty-four deaths, although some unofficial reports claim it is at least a hundred and thirty-four and even two hundred. So, if the death rate is only one per cent, then the total number of cases would be between thirty-four hundred and ten thousand or even twenty thousand.” https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-iran-became-a-new-epicenter-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak
6- This is what we know for sure. The virus is entrenched in 28 provinces now, there are a total of 31, and large numbers of people are being moved around the country to various local hospitals since major city hospitals are overwhelmed. This has created another issue, namely locals attacking said hospitals or confronting the administration at the gates demanding the patients to be moved elsewhere. Some have been beaten back by riot police and teargas. The reason for these protests is simple, there is a complete breakdown of regime’s credibility and legitimacy. The people have no way of knowing if the patients are being treated properly following adequate protocol or whether the medical staff will be the vectors, unleashing the virus in their communities due to lack of adequate equipment and procedure. These transfers are generally not acknowledged by the regime. Imagine if ScoMo administration started moving around large numbers of infected into your communities without a media release and you finding out because your cousin is a cleaner at said facility. Now imagine if you knew for sure, through your cousin’s testimony, that these hospitals lacked adequate measures to deal with the issue. Obvious stuff like masks or gloves. What would you do?
7- Consequently, the unfortunate patients are now being viewed as ‘bioweapon’ deployed by the regime against the local populations. This is how serious the breakdown of trust is. The regime is exacerbating the situation through their constant obtuseness and secrecy, withholding up to date information on the actual developments, allowing reactionary mullahs the media platform to promote the most ludicrous medieval traditional folk remedies and constantly telling the worried crowds to go home or else. Remember my previous comments about the regime’s pathological security lens preference? It overrides everything else. Will any small gathering turn into an uprising? That is the mullahcracy’s priority number one.
8- But why are they so worried? There is of course the phenomenal hatred generated by their 41 years of nightmarish misrule. However, there is another factor which the regime is desperately trying to cover. As you may know, emperor Xi has serious problems with China’s Uyghur population. His solution? Round them up in their millions and place them in concentration camps to be ‘re-educated’. Considering that Khamenovsky views himself as the legitimate caliph of a ‘certain’ world, it might seem strange that he has never said anything about the situation. But there is an explanation. A few years ago, Xi and Khamenovsky came up with a cunning plan. Get some of these unfortunate Uyghurs to the seminaries in Qom and brainwash them as clerics to be sent back home, in turn brainwashing their fellow Uyghurs. Some may ask ‘wait a minute, isn’t Xi’s trying to stop the spread of a ‘certain’ sect’? And you would be correct, but he is trying to stop the Saudi sponsored variety. Khamenovsky’s brand on the other hand is steeped in extreme Russophilia/Sinophilia which in combination with his pathological hatred of the west, flirtations and fascination with Marxism-Leninism in his youth and absolute devotion to oriental despotism fits emperor Xi’s strategic goals and modus operandi perfectly. We know that the virus was brought by said clerics, regularly travelling between the two countries, and that the authorities knew about its outbreak back in January. Yet, no warning. Why? The parliamentary elections and celebration of their wretched ‘revolution’ needed extras. People were bussed in from all over the place in lieu of payments, goodies and benefits and were sent back home without a warning. As you can imagine, once the majority population starts putting two and two together, the ramifications could be serious. We are not talking about a bit of torture, some ruthless violent break up of a protest, a touch of interrogation in a dungeon or a twenty-year sentence for removing one’s hijab. Those are everyday occurrences and Iranians know the regime’s usual handiwork. No, we would be talking about knowingly releasing a pathogen into the population, we would be talking about a ‘bioweapon’ against own population. That might be just enough to ignite the powder keg and create nationwide social unrest.
9- What kind of people are running the country and how do their criminal minds work? Here is an example. Abbasi is an ultra-reactionary ideologue who goes by the self-created moniker of ‘Kissinger of ‘insert certain religion here’. I am not joking, that is what he calls himself. He also fancies himself as a world class geo-strategist and 64-dimensional chess player. He is owned by IRGC and Khamenovsky and what comes out of his mouth is usually taken as the unofficial ravings of the supreme leader and the dominate faction currently in charge. Would you expect such a mindset to care for a pandemic or health care provision to the general population? What about Rouhani the president and his cabinet? Aren’t they in charge? No, they are not. They are just puppets acting as a distraction that is not working anymore. The regime is already considering getting rid of the election circus by staging an IRGC soft coup creating a junta under the official leadership of Khamenovsky. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPRrHKI2s94
10- Here is another demagogue acting as the unofficial mouthpiece for the supreme leader and IRGC. He constantly tours the country, giving lengthy speeches about the ‘evils of liberal west’, pontificating about merits of fundamentalism while trying to predict the next American move by analysing scene out of movies such as The Matrix or Inception. He also believes in jinn, known in the west as genies, and wants to liberate the Levant from the ‘evil Zionists’. He is mockingly known among Iranians as ‘son of Arafat’ since he bears an uncanny resemblance. This has caused him much ire and forced him to discuss the issue in his lectures. Such a creature is not an aberration but an integral part of the regime machinery and representative of its elite’s chicanery and hypocrisy. In a series of tweets, he has started to create the narrative of corona virus being a deliberate act of destabilisation by the ‘American/Zionist/liberal/capitalist/western…..’ cabal hellbent on disruption of elections and destabilisation etc. I suspect as the situation in Iran starts to deteriorate, promotion of this crude propaganda to gain more speed. A major problem faced by the regime is that this narrative in reverse has already been claimed by certain portion of the population i.e. the regime unleashing the virus for political gains. Suffice to say, the regime is losing this war. As the demagogue himself, Raefipour, has admitted on multiple occasions, the regime is lagging miserably behind in ‘the war for hearts and minds’. There is a simple reason, regime’s fantasies vs. objective reality. As honest Abe famously said: “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time”. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a5/Alil_Akbar_Raefipour.jpg
11- The regime is already attempting to dismiss global concerns through macabre displays of Basij, home guard or militia, goons licking and kissing various shrines, fascist adherents deliberately gathering at various ‘holy’ sites while proclaiming their undying resolve to not give into fear mongering by continuing to shake hands and give kisses on the cheeks. Other regime mouthpieces e.g. TV hosts have been announcing on live broadcast their full recovery form a recent infection while comparing it to a common cold etc. These crude attempts won’t work. Already, some minor local strikes have begun with people refusing to go to work. As ever, after the initial hot air, the regime has been forced to acknowledge some semblance of reality. A few token school and government office closures for 3 days till Tuesday were announced. However, Rouhani’s promised return to norm on Saturday has failed to materialise. Regime mouthpieces have talked about a peak this week with other predicting a peak in the next two weeks. Based on what you may ask. Good question and I would not be able to answer that. In my opinion, the regime’s refusal to follow vigorous quarantine procedures is a double edge sword. The dreaded closure and standstill of the country may eventuate once the nation wide scope of the virus proliferation becomes public knowledge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1j6ubiJmuac
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-iran-mood/fear-distrust-and-disinfectant-in-the-air-amid-irans-coronavirus-outbreak-idUSKBN20O1X1
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iranian-Shias-lick-kiss-shrines-in-defiance-of-coronavirus-outbreak-619428
12- Ultimately, while the fascist clerical regime in Iran is the most blatant manifestation of reality psychosis, it is not by any means isolated. In my opinion, the entire globe is suffering from an acute case of postmodern/post structural attack on rationality and human agency. The above cults conquered the humanities long ago, starting a deliberate destruction of once glorious institutions. Like termites, they viciously and meticulously chewed their way till nothing but a husk of the previous meaning making apparatus was left. They have begun an equally serious attack on the last vestiges of modernity i.e. empirical sciences. Once these are infected, that’s it. An integral component of modernity is the unquestioned supremacy of human agency through our faculties and reason. A modern human acts. Our only limits are our imaginations. I am guilty of such a mindset. What does it have to do with this outbreak? In a world where above outlook is dominant, humanity does not wait for a pandemic but goes out in the field and tracks down whatever is out there irrespective of costs. In such a world, quantum computing would be a daily reality already, so would AI and intelligent machines. This article from almost 6 months ago illustrates why the world is now beginning to panic while trying to speculate what happens next. Putting aside the alarmist title, I agree with the gist of it. Either you take the fight to these microscopic menaces or they will eventually break your door down. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/20/the-world-knows-an-apocalyptic-pandemic-is-coming/
13- Finally, if you are an Iranian and read this, you have a duty to your new adopted home or host country to not travel to Iran for the foreseeable future. You live in a nation state with clear boundaries, institutions and national interests. Your foremost duty is the maintenance of the above. I understand that many would like to visit their families but your sentiments must be subordinate to the needs of your new home wherever it is. As far the authorities go, please impose a complete travel ban on Iran for the next 3-6 months and if necessary, enforce it with severe financial penalties and even imprisonment. Australia is not dependent on Iranian tourist dollars and however much loot these theocratic bandits are willing to invest in the country; the ultimate cost of clean-up and quarantine may outweigh the gains. Furthermore, anyone who can afford to travel as a tourist is either a regime underling or a relative of one. As far as the Iranian diaspora goes, you made your decision and moved out. You have new homes and new obligations. Also, a vigorous quarantine program should be imposed on all goods arriving from the country. I have been boycotting Iranian products for more than a decade. All the businesses in Iran are either owned by some psychopath mullah/IRGC commander or the owners pay tribute to them. Like the Sopranos and the eternal envelopes. What I post here should ultimately have some practical value. I am not trying to boast about my knowledge nor I am fishing for attention. As far as the western readers go, all I can ask you is to start pressuring your MP’s and resist the influence of the regime’s foreign lobby. Some may have started to realise; “while it is true that I don’t give a flying fig about the mullahcracy or Iranians for that matter, the mullahcracy seems to be interested in me by exporting a bit corona here and there”. Your continued wellbeing could be at stake.
Please let me know if you have any questions and I will try to answer them.
All the best
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Sinbad
Thank you for your reasoned write up and updates.
I have contacts in China and whats happening in the regions is terrible apparently, have some cellphone footage which is gruesome.
The limited info I have with Iran is best illustrated with your fuller accounts.
However your IRGC accts are very accurate to my knowledge and whilst i come to Joanna for the science, what you have to say is very topical.
For it directly points to factors that will herald the spread and the potential reinfection cycles.
Thank you.
Africa with 300k Chinese “technicians” all over it, could be an interesting case in next 3/12, as they have no capacity for pandemic treatment.
Closing down air travel for 2/12 seems the best option, but there is no political will.
Lets see if 100,000 of known deaths help vacillating pollies.
10
Hi KiwiMike
Thank you for your input. I am in agreement with you in regards to China. I reject the official number of 80000 as a complete joke. In my opinion, the actual numbers could be anywhere between 200,000-500,000. Number of dead must be much higher too. I don’t think this thing is ‘over’ in China either. As it has been pointed out before, 5 million people from the epicentre fled before the quarantine impositions. Are we to believe that the communist despots can track down 5 million dispersed people and keep them isolated? What is this, 1984? I know that they are extremely paranoid and in charge of a vast surveillance state but there are limits. They also have to run a massive country on top of managing the pandemic.
In my view, disregarding the geopolitics of this pandemic will lead to inaccurate analysis. As you have pointed out, the belt and road could prove to be the corona highway into areas that simply can’t deal with the outbreak. The belt and road is utterly dependent on emperor Xi’s largesse i.e. lick the boot or else. This means that Xi and his capos determine the narrative. Due to the paranoia suffered by the eastern bloc tyrants, the imminent collapse of the mullahcracy which acts as the forwarding position for oriental despotism has made them feel even more vulnerable, the internal populations were kept in the dark and the extent of the spread minimised. Consequently, Australia is about to experience a mushrooming of clusters. However, i don’t think the western governments are innocent either. They have been accomplices, due to GDP considerations, so has this puppet chief of WHO. One would be forgiven for mistaking the good doctor for a card carrying member of CCP.
All the best
00
Sinbad
Thank you for your reasoned write up and updates.
I have contacts in China and whats happening in the regions is terrible apparently, have some cellphone footage which is gruesome.
The limited info I have with Iran is best illustrated with your fuller accounts.
However your IRGC accts are very accurate to my knowledge and whilst i come to Joanna for the science, what you have to say is very topical.
For it directly points to factors that will herald the spread and the potential reinfection cycles.
Thank you.
Africa with 300k Chinese “technicians” all over it, could be an interesting case in next 3/12, as they have no capacity for pandemic treatment.
Closing down air travel for 2/12 seems the best option, but there is no political will.
Lets see if 100,000 of known deaths help vacillating pollies.
00
“Travellers from Iran asked to self-isolate for 14 days after arriving in Canada”
several new cases in the Toronto area from travelers returning from Iran
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/coronavirus-covid19-economy-monreau-tam-1.5482640
00