Partial post hoc reactive quarantine holds seven planes at London airport– seriously?
Madness. Eight planes have been held up for hours in London airports as they land with people with coughs and colds and try to check suspected cases. By the time people are symptomatic, its too late. Temperature checks may catch the most contagious people but now one person with a unrelated common cold can also cause a major and unnecessary disruption while other infective people can freely fly in and walk straight through.
Asymptomatic people can potentially infect 2 to 3 random people (or 10) who may then also infect 2 – 3 random people each before the Epidemiology SWAT Team realizes and starts testing and tracking. We play an impossible game of catch up in a race to isolate all possible contacts.
HOURS of misery in coronavirus lockdown at Heathrow:
DailyMail UK
Passengers endured hours of misery at Heathrow Airport this morning when up to eight planes were put on lockdown over coronavirus fears after passengers on board complained of symptoms of the deadly virus.
MailOnline understands a British Airways flight from Kuala Lumpur was held up on the tarmac for two hours when it landed at 6.45am after cabin crew grew concerned a Malaysian family ‘of around eight’ might have the contagious infection, now named SARS-CoV-2.
One passenger on the plane said that health workers in protective gowns and face masks came on board the BA34 flight and set up a screen around the family before evacuating everyone off the plane row by row.
The first confirmed case in London was only Wednesday. The phase transition from low-risk to hours-of-disruption is quick, eh? Last week this was “low risk” now the shops of chinatown are empty. A strict quarantine is the only thing that can save businesses like this.
The West has a choice here: Build hospitals or holiday cabins
We could start building emergency hospital ICU rooms like China has, or we could start building quarantine cabins which are infinitely cheaper and ask all entrants from countries with uncontrolled cases of Covid 19* (or SARS CoV 2, whatever it is called) to go through a two week quarantine. This will limit traffic drastically, affecting weddings, conferences, holidays and all kinds of business. It will be costly and inconvenient, but it will possibly save people and quite a lot of money. (ICU care is $5000 a day). Separated families can still be reunited after the two week delay. Am I mad, stopping all flights to nations at risk seems like the cheap conservative option?
Our hospital system is designed to cope with the annual flu load, even if this only doubles it, it will be onerous, hard choices are coming. If 10% of cases need major hospital help (as we see in the cases in Hong Kong and Singapore) the system will be overwhelmed.
I repeat, now that we know this is very infectious the best case scenario is that the virus causes thousands of undetected low grade infections, and that for some reason it is not as severe in the West (genes, pollution, medical care, lower population density, summer, past infection immunity, etc). Perhaps it blows over and we can look back and say “hyped”. We’ll know a lot more in a few weeks time. Are three weeks worth of weddings and conferences really worth the risk?
The disruption of closing borders is nothing compared to the disruption of post hoc late quarantine. Once the virus gains a foothold schools will have to close, businesses and factories will shut. People will need to stay home.
On the Diamond Princess — when will we get those people off that boat and put them in proper quarantine — one where they are not breathing the same presumably unfiltered air? Perhaps these cross infections are due to food handling, the walks to the deck or some other route. Where is this being discussed?
UPDATE:
This is the virus I fear the most’: British scientist
By Danyal Hussain and Ryan Fahey For Mailonline
Professor Neil Ferguson, of the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, revealed that ‘this is the one I’m scared of’ when asked about the killer coronavirus, which is causing increasing alarm all over the country.
However, he insisted he was not predicting 400,000 deaths, but was warning that the figure ‘is possible’. He said he would rather and adding that he’d ‘prefer to be accused of overreacting than under reacting’.
Research indicates that 60 per cent of Britons could be affected by the virus, formally known as COVID-19.
Which is more scary, a half a degree temperature rise in 50 years or a flu that kills 1% in coming months?
Latest tally: John Hopkins CSSE and Worldometer
h/t Bill in Oz
*Sadly, we probably need to include countries with no cases but inadequate testing. This will increase pressure for nations to control their cases — a big added incentive to manage their health (perhaps with as much help as we can give).
“We could start building emergency hospital ICU rooms like China has, or we could start building quarantine cabins which are infinitely cheaper and ask all entrants from countries with known uncontrolled cases of Covid 19 (or SARS CoV 2, whatever it is called) to go through a two week quarantine.*”
I think this is a fantastic idea. It should be a plan integrated with our defence strategy more generally. [SNIP. Far too off topic at #1] Plenty of good reasons to have this extra accommodation. The free market is all about efficiency. But surviving under stressful conditions is about having a lot of redundancy. Of course its important to do a lot to deal with the current virus. Since if we can stop its infiltration this winter that gives us so much more room to move. But what I’m saying is we ought not think of any of this money as being wasted since we need this sort of redundancy over the longer haul.
54
Thanks for this post Jo
I think your suggestions are sensible and modest.
But of course there will be a backlash
by people who think they have a right to travel anywhere any time NOW.
And the businesses who rely on the money spent by such persons
Will join in backlashing you for daring to make these suggestions !
61
Those restaurants in Chinatown that are empty today would still have customers if we have done a proper quarantine already.
As I said before, it’s harder to get cut flowers into Australia than to import a deadly virus.
200
I brought my two pet dogs back from overseas once. A month in quarantine, despite vaccination certificates and blood tests proving both were free from diseases and also had antibody immunity from the vaccines. Meanwhile tourists with multi drug resistant TB and other bugs walk straight out the arrivals hall.
40
It is refreshing to read a thoughtful discussion of this serious subject.
Given that part of the hotel room supply in many western nations has recently been occupied by Chinese tourists, there may now be increased vacancies in many hotel properties, leaving the possibility of converting a few existing low density properties into “holiday cabins” for foreign visitors needing a two week quarantine.
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Being careful is fine combined with critical thinking, this Corona outbreak has led to thoughts and realisations of other critical outcomes in the USA,
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/02/13/coronavirus-outbreak-exposes-chinas-monopoly-on-u-s-drug-medical-supplies/
From Link: The coronavirus outbreak has exposed the United States’ dangerous dependence on China for pharmaceutical and medical supplies, including an estimated 97 percent of all antibiotics and 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients needed to produce drugs in the United States.
Perhaps a President that places his nation first above all isn’t the (insert wild insult here) the left claim he is, the real concern is China could use this as leverage to alter trade deals or travel bans, either way its a good argument for local manufacturing.
170
It is not just drugs. The Coronavirus has confirmed the extreme risk associated with rejecting national self sufficiency and embracing globalisation, particularly for the West. There has always been trade but to transfer manufacturing and processing overseas to developing nations in the belief that neither pestilence, conflict or economic manipulation would disrupt the supply chain is frankly naive. Australia is an extreme case where the nation has rejected any form of self sufficiency in fuel or secondary industry and has sacrificed common sense on the altar of emissions reduction.
390
And wouldn’t much of the re tooling to restart factories have to also come from China?
10
What would halting international travel mean?
Sure, huge immediate disruption to holiday plans, seasonal workers, foreign students but there are alternatives.
Then holidays at home, couriers, local workers, business meetings by internet (say COP22?), classes by internet. No international flights and ships prepared to act as long term quarantine stations, even designed for the purpose to minimize transmission.
In an increasingly mobile world where 100,000 people arrive in Venice every single day and 50,000 international visitors per day in Paris, there will come a time when flights shut down for an international quarantine to stop a major contagion. It is going to happen. Many times. So people need to plan for this as a realistic expectation. It was only a question of when.
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It’s not as if people traveled in the 1950s and 1960’s as they do today, so the potential for a pandemic is much higher. You can often get a return airfare to London for less than a single flight from Sydney to Melbourne. And every empty house or flat can be a hotel and every car a taxi. Jet setting is no longer for the rich and famous, but part of a ritual of life. How many Australians have had a holiday in Bali or Europe? Most? Even America was a novelty for Australians as late as the 1990s, as was Australia for Americans.
The considerations of problems which came with random Isl*mic violence are nothing compared to the potential for viral disaster which can wipe out millions in weeks, like the Spanish flu in WW1. And then they did not have planes.
140
True TdeF. This must be the point when the world realizes that the wonders of cheap far travel come with the responsibility to shut it down temporarily at an early stage in potential pandemics.
A network of both island holiday houses and cruise ship quarantine (with filters fitted and trained serving staff) may become essential, and I’m sure we can find other uses in between temporary pandemics.
Every day we delay it gets so much more expensive to stop this.
201
Jo,
My wife is a Qantas Flight attendant. Both us worry about the transmission of this virus. She is on flights for 120 hours per month in a closed environment (aircraft) with many passengers travelling from SEA ports.
The concern I have is that some passengers may have segwayed between countries to circumnavigate the ban on direct flights. The cabin crew and passengers are not required to don or wear ppe on those flights.
I do not know if a passenger embarking at a “safe” SEA port has had their previous travel history checked before being allowed to board the flight. We rely on other countries to vet for us and then that passenger can spend hours on a flight to Australia with up to 300 souls on board.
AS you can see I am concerned.
150
sorry everyone, used a lot of acronyms
SEA = South east asia
PPE = personal protective equip
Port in aircraft terms is airport
60
William, I understand your concern. Especially in light of the fact that Qantas only restricted flights when the political opportunity was afforded by the actions of other airlines. They let politics rate higher than science.
Your wife can keep safer with a few simple measures. Regularly sanitizing hands is top priority. Surfaces are the primary mode of transfer. (The airborne vector is unlikely as such a carrier would be caught in screening, and aircraft air systems are designed to minimize such transmission).
Second priority is makeup. The more expensive the better. Regular touch ups throughout the flight (after cleaning hands). Your wife is no doubt stunning without makeup, but women have good discipline when wearing makeup. No touching lips nose or eyes, unless in the security of the powder room. The more expensive, the less likely they are to carelessly touch their face.
The cosmetics experts a David Jones will be able to help with maximum protection while maxing your credit card. (For those that may have been blogging instead of remembering Valentine’s day, there may be additional benefits to this expenditure).
30
William, I understand your concern. People with fears need to speak up and lobby.
To start with — identify the key groups with an interest.Eg. People over 50, airline staff, medical staff, …. reach out to them. Can someone calculate. A 1% death toll overall will look very different to the death toll in the 60+ or 70+. Those estimates are going to look much more scary. Contact your local MP and Senator. The Medical Association, Aged Care.
Right now business is lobbying govt to keep the flights open. And while no other country is doing it, it appears high risk. But once one country starts others will follow. Suddenly it will look culpable to not do it.
Poltiicians and many people are telling themselves “it’s just the flu” and “it only affects old people with preexisting conditions” not 34 year old specialist doctors. Or they are saying, it’s OK they’ll figure out some medicine by winter.
When I look at comments below all the articles on Coronavirus nearly everyone is saying “stop the flights”. But many other people are evidently not reading those articles, or are assuming docs will have this sorted (they always do, … except when they don’t).
60
I will declare a vested interest :
I am an active 72 year old.
And clearly in the age cohort that this virus seems to prefer.
I suggest that others making big ‘statements’ here
Also declare their ‘vested’ interests
30
Whose to say it’s not already too late? Enough of the virus is already spread throughout the world by travellers so if it’s as serious as some say it is then it will get much worse and there is nothing we can do about it apart from finding a vaccine, which will take a long time.
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Let’s all hope not
And try to prevent it being spread.
That will be less costly in the long term
And lead to fewer illnesses and deaths.
20
Indeed. We just have to wait a bit longer to gather enough data and judge accordingly. I’m afraid that’s all we can do at the moment.
31
No, that is the medical approach. If the Trump administration had not led by ignoring the WHO, our civilization would now be in collapse.
We must take the engineering and military approach. We must accept the current unknowns and act on what we do know to stop the spread.
Currently the human race has the technology to stop this thing dead in its tracks without an effective rapid testing or a vaccine. If we fail to stop it, it will only due to stupidity.
61
Exactly — We don’t need to wait. We need to buy time. Yes, Trump led the way. Even a pause in flights for a few weeks will tell us so much more.
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I am wondering if more AI camera’s with facial recognition would be useful?..and add to that the fact that there are already plenty of cheap, accurate thermal imaging cameras on the market, an existing technology that could be used to take temperature readings of hundreds of people per second or more when incorporated into a smart city grid system…??
https://securityelectronicsandnetworks.com/articles/2018/07/18/applying-thermal-surveillance-cameras/
10
There is all the missing data with respect to the spectre of mass starvation if a mass of people are not able to go shopping, or to the local burger outlet to find food for instance. There is little reporting on the food detail IMO…does anyone have some info on this? The next few weeks will tell us more indeed.
00
I found some recent information about food distribution… 🙂 Great!
From:https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/13/WS5e456e67a31012821727766c.html
“Hard hit Huanggang to take strictest control measures”
“The circular said, however, people engaged in the epidemic control work and those responsible for providing assistance, including medical workers, medicine or supply providers “and food deliverers, are exempted from the lockdown.
“A ban also will be imposed on vehicles on the city’s streets, but working vehicles, including medical rescue and transport of vital supplies, will be exempted.
“Village or community committees will organize the distribution of daily necessities and also will help purchase materials urgently needed residents, the circular said.
00
That’s what I meant. So we still have to wait. There is simply not enough data to make the assessment that it’s evolving into a pandemic or not. Meanwhile we are doing what’s humanly possible to minimise the spread. Sure we could more but how much more? Do we shut down every airport and seaport?
20
No. We are not doing what’s humanly possible. As long as we allow mass flights from countries with likely uncontrolled spread we are waiting for a confirmation that will only come after it’s too late.
Are two weeks of conferences and holidays really that important?
20
It may well be too late as we know that there are a number of cases within OZ. However not taking steps to prevent importing more cases is totally illogical. Unfortunately Governments too frequently apply logic retrospectively. This does not work.
Winter will be crunch time when viruses persist longer in the air and cases are more likely to develop into pneumonia. As a 73 year old I am in the high risk category although my greatest concern is for those with most of their life still ahead of them.
20
Is it possible that this situation will also trigger push back to the agenda to create mega cities and rid the countryside of people who would otherwise much prefer to live closer to nature?
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/05/china-migrant-workers-miserable/589423/
00
Tdef.. Re international air travel.
The elites travel by private jets and don’t tend to lower their standards to socialise with people like you or me. They will be safe from coronavirus.
FYI, COP22 will go ahead as the delegates will be flying in on the private Di Caprio, Gore, Depp, and Swarzenegger airlines.
112
COP22 was in Nov. 2016 in Marrakech, Morocco.
The 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) to the UNFCCC is expected to take place from 9-19 November 2020, in Glasgow, UK.
COP22 was in Nov. 2016 in Marrakech, Morocco.
There is this one starting on February 24th:
Fifty-second Session of the IPCC (IPCC-52), Paris, France
The UN has lots of meetings and spends lots of money.
I’ve no idea what IPCC-52 is.
60
I think a lot of this mob have permanent jet lag.
Which might explain most of their crazy thinking
And crazy decisions!
50
I stand corrected, I wish I could edit my post to COP 26.
Thankyou John F. Hultquist.
The freedom of speech, the ability to debate and the information you find posted by many learned, qualified, and diverse contributors on a website is rare.
This is why I love this blog.
50
There is only one person who can save the globe at this point. It is time to consult the oracle named Greta.
32
Hi Jo, this whole Corona Virus disease has a personal aspect for me.
I dance close embrace Argentine tango.
It is one of the real joys in my life.
As it is for so many others in the Argentine Tango community here in Australia.
Notice I use the word “Community”
We tangueros & tangueras live all over the country in all our major cities.
And we are not just Australians.
“We” are also English, Polish, Filipino, Indonesian, Russian, Japanese, Korean Chinese, German, Kiwis, Uruguyan, American etc.
And we travel to dance at milongas around Australia and overseas.
If this virus becomes established in Australia
Tango could be a major way that it is spread far & wide !
That would effectively mean shutting down Tango in Australia
( As has already happened in China )
And of course there are all the other styles of dance where infection could happen
Ballrom, Latin Salsa, Rock& Roll etc !
Better in my perspective to do all we can to exclude ut from coming to Australia
50
Yep first thing i thought of was Tango ban 🙂
I went to a Tango themed show in Buenos Aires many years ago ( my company was one of those that loved shipping people around the world for a chat) I was amazed by the range of things Tango can be from a slow graceful elegant thing to a errrm agressive, erotic, gymnastic thing. Quite an eye opener.
Apologies for extreme off topic-ness
50
Probably not too many of us would like to be in the cruise liner business just now . . . .
52
This is a concept which will have to be addressed eventually. There is a good summary of the virus and current epidemiology by Rud Istvan over at WUWT. It is becoming established that there is a significant symptomless infective period with this Wuhan strain, bourne out by by clinical experience in Europe and the giant Diamond Princess epidemiology laboratory where the symptomless Ro is showing to be perhaps as high as 3. That is going to make it hard to stop absent some serious travel restrictions in combination with quarantine.
It is now certain that new infections from infected individuals yet to develop symptoms are occurring on the Diamond Princess which is a horror for those involved and I wonder how long the quarantine can be maintained. I would hope that alternative facilities which provide the isolation clearly lacking onboard ship are being prepared. This will probably result in a lawyers field day, confinement in unsafe conditions and all that, but may not. The turning away of ships carrying infectious diseases, plague, smallpox, cholera and the like is well established past practice and may still be facilitated in maritime law. Quarantine stations such as at Portsea were an attempt to provide more humane conditions for passengers and to keep shipowners happy.
Any lawyers out there who know if quarantine provisions still exist in Maritime Law and if the situation is significantly different in Aviation law? Are we going to be stymied, as in so much else, by the legal profession preventing sensible action.
80
From comments made by persons on the Diamond Princess, I believe those that can transmit do experience symptoms (although transient) but they are not cold and flu symptoms that develop later in the progression of infection.
There is talk of mild food poisoning/gastro symptoms that pass before later nasal/pulmonary symptoms develop.
The possibility that the gastrointestinal tract is where the virus first takes hold fits the available evidence. This should be thoroughly investigated. The answer could give us the best preventive measures, more effective rapid testing and the possibility of dramatically reducing viral load after detection.
70
“I would hope that alternative facilities which provide the isolation clearly lacking onboard ship are being prepared.”
I’ve read that passengers are now allowed to disembark if they will agree to be be quaranteed ashore at their own expense.
40
Yes, I believe so but that may be a very expensive proposition not feasible for many. There still seems to be this thing that because you are on a boat the country you are in is not responsible.
10
For two weeks and 11 posts on this topic, it was apparent it was likely aerosolized just by watching the docs in China. They were wearing goggles three weeks ago on Twitter photos. That was when I grew concerned. Many of them wouldn’t have become sick with normal precautions if it wasn’t aerosolized and the numbers wouldn’t have been growing 20% a day in Jan without asymptomatic spread which we have been discussing a since Feb 4th.
And I’ve also been saying since the Diamond Princess first docked that we ought be trying to get our citizens out of there. the threat of unfiltered airconditioning was obvious.
Good questions on maritime law. The story about American Samoa is very relevant there.
30
Hi Jo, I agree it has been likely for some time but I believe it was the French case which first provided reliable evidence, since replicated multiple times by the Diamond Princess. As for transmission, my understanding is that it may be directly airbourne without requiring droplet carrier which makes ordinary masks pretty much useless.
There is no doubt a wealth of further information available from Chinese experience but the WHO is still having difficulty obtaining the required access so that is an issue which is unfortunately likely to become moot if cases proliferate in the west.
There is now a case which tracks back to the Westerdam ship in Cambodia so we will have another marooned population. Not sure how many are still on that.
Now have reports of apparently recovered individuals rapidly relapsing with heart failure (Taiwan Times via ZeroHedge). Also that incubation period can be up to 24 days. Just gets better and better.
I agree that we should be bringing stranded Australians home but that would be a major logistical exercise requiring maintenance of patient isolation over multiple transfers. Military perhaps.
00
Directly airborne without droplet means aerosol spread. That’s been official for a week and very likely for three.
A week ago I’m pretty sure there were already something like 5 separate cases of asymptomatic spread. That’s without the cruise ship. First german case was dodgy, otherwise, pretty solid evidence long ago. (Long meaning, “week” or more in this rapidly moving situation.
I hear the 24 days one was an outlier, and may be second contact in a shorter period. If median incubation is 3 – 5 days, a 14 day quarantine is still likely to cover the situation.
yes, I’ve been watching zero hedge. Amazing situation.
00
Having said that I see now that like everything with this virus what was definitely airborne, is also definitely not airborne. Depends on which expert you ask. I even confirmed this with an ICU worker in Australia a week ago. Sigh.
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-could-airborne-chinese-official-claims-1486493
00
London bus conference and BA flight https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51503292
20
correction: Not BA334 flight. Oblique refernce to a United Airlines flight BA34.
00
Correction: *BA34
10
“or we could start building quarantine cabins which are infinitely cheaper”
Or we could commandeer Club Med for the duration and use its huts for that purpose.
11
I here repeat a comment I made at the tail-end of the prior thread on this topic. This is the best roundup I’ve seen:
Wuhan Coronavirus—WUWT Update
Guest Blogger / 3 hours ago February 14, 2020
Guest post by Rud Istvan,
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/
30
OK !
This post by Rud Istvan is vastly improved on his previous post on WUWT.
He is no longer down playing the seriousness of this disease and how it is spread
20
Three simple scary items from Istvan’s post on WUWT :
1: Symptomless infection of other people ( Superspreaders !! )
2: A Rom of potentially 11 !
3: Damage to the lungs can precede the appearance of typical symptoms like flue, runny nose, fever in some infected persons etc.
Each of those items is bloody scary !
31
Rud has improved, but is still missing the mark.
There is no second animal host. It’s just a bat virus subject to genetic manipulation by humans.
Second, Rud is still looking for standard cold and flu symptoms.
What Rud does get right is the reason antibiotics won’t work.
10
Sorry, I’m finding the hype and the predictions of gloom and doom somewhat alarmist. Kind of reminds me of another alarmism. How did the predictions of Ebola and SARS turn out? How many people a year die from the Flu? I’m sceptical.
Building huts and the like for quarantine in Australia? I am very confident that measures taken by our government will protect the greater population.
Am I a pandemic denier? Yep. Well, tell me sceptics, what is your survival plan if the would or could predictions comes to pass?
52
This is interesting.
30
This place is the centre of critical thought. I do not say
this lightly.
My observations. It seems to me that the virus to be most fatal in colder climes. Sure, there has been fatalities in other longitudes but there is no understanding of the transfer or timelines. I am sure all will be apparent after the fact.
Does this virus thrive, as fatalities are concerned, in a cooler climate? Being a lay person, Been looking at this. There is a good case that my thesis is flawed. Depends on the time lime.
40
Most cold and flu viruses spread more quickly in cold conditions because these allow the virus to survive longer on surfaces after leaving an infected person.
In videos from China you can see they have resorted to bleach spraying of public areas and even work place interiors.
10
Good thinking. May as well add that critical mind/thinking is not the same as having a mind that criticizes.
I too have been skeptical and somewhat ‘extra’ critical. Basic elements are missing. For example, why is it called the “Corona Virus”? and why change its name over to Covid19?
Did the advertised name need to be changed because too many people like me are taking doses of beer, rumored to be a vaccine, ‘Corona Extra’ about 4.5% alcohol. Asking the bartender for a Covid19 vaccine just wouldn’t be the same as asking for the old ‘Corona Extra’ vaccine i have become accustomed to in the more recent weeks for medicinal purposes. 🙂
11
That’s what I’ve been trying to say but in a subtle way to avoid being called a “denier”. We simply do not have enough data as yet to make the right assessment as to whether this will turn into a pandemic or not. Of course we all hope it won’t. Only time will tell.
11
The problem is we need to make a judgement (at least of a temporary nature) now, not in a month.
If in a month we know for sure it has an Ro of 3.5 a death rate of 2% in the West it will be too late to stop it.
However we could “hold” incoming flights for a month, and then if it is less of an issue or problem in the west, we can reopen flights as soon as we are sure.
Like Schrodingers Cat, by the time we can make the observations we need, the chance to stop this virus will be dead.
40
Hours of misery at Heathrow is business as usual once anything unusual happens.
22
E. M. Smith (chiefio.wordpress.com )
has postings, with Larry Ledwick doing comments.
His latest is interesting:
Larry Ledwick says:
15 February 2020 at 6:11 am
If true this is the first warning bell of an upcoming famine shortage of key food products in the locked down cities.
Wuhan has a population of 11 million that means they need to import 16.5 million pounds of food a day to feed the city. That is a challenge in a broken supply chain.
81
Exactly John….How can they even go shopping?….sure, they must still have water from plumbing and existing pipes, but food?….how are they eating or getting food in a lock-down? With drones and AI cameras everywhere?? chilling. 🙁 There are many basic information elements that seem to be missing in action.
12
How many times have climate activists preached the “precautionary principle” at me? Seems this is a better place to apply it – but no one wants to know!
51
The precautionary principle applies in the face of no objective threat, and in the absence of knowledge. In fact, the principle implies that man is incapable of knowledge. It is designed to undermine thought and to put an end to progress. It doesn’t apply here, and no rational person should ever apply it. What applies here is prudence. This virus is a real and serious threat that requires particular defensive actions to slow and stop its spread. What’s needed is prudent action, and fast.
50
You can say that if you like, Richard – but Im going to take precautions!
10
Absolutely, mate. Taking precautions isn’t the same as the precautionary principle.
10
Here in befogged nation aka Blighty, we carry on but not that calmly underneath. Somewhat Jonah like, the other day to colleagues I casually remarked, ‘well it’s on the south coast now’ and implying it won’t be long before the bug is nationwide and the comment went down like a cup of cold vomit, fairly unsurprisingly.
Mass enforced isolation, we don’t do do that sort of stuff – do we? And ala sino shutdown involuntary or else, ah just yet. Although it’s imminent – probably.
Still, we are all being told to jolly well wash our hands, strewth and sanitation makes a comeback in the UK…………every cloud eh?
50
Say, Athelstan, take massive doses of Vitamin C,
put some tinned food aside, oh, and wash yer hands.
Do – not – be – afraid.
40
May be of interest . . . . .
https://nexusnewsfeed.com/article/jon-rappoport/sudden-spike-in-coronavirus-cases-only-means-new-method-of-counting
00
“New method of counting”? Is that similar to the count of hottest day ever when the blast from a jet engine hit the instant reading thermometer?
The days of honest reporting ANYTHING is past. What gets reported is whatever transfers the maximum power to government (aka the self selected unaccountable elite of the moment) so as to increase its power to micromanage citizen behavior.
Count me totally skeptical about the validity of anything reported by the Chinese Bureaucrats, WHO, and many times our own Government. On anything that is important, I only trust my own measurements and even that I do many times over a significant period to make sure I wasn’t measuring noise. Then only after I have carefully calibrated/validated my measuring device.
If it isn’t important to me and my continued life, I really don’t care. For example, it is reported that the age of the visible universe is 13.7 billion years. I don’t care if it were only 5 or even even as much as 50. It is of no consequence to me or my continued existence. I do care that the universe does exist. Though, if it didn’t exist, I wouldn’t be here to care about it.
41
I feel like a sitting duck with two young kids. I could turn blue in the face asking my 4yo to cover her mouth when she coughs and sneezes, wash hands etc. she just doesn’t get it. She had a runny today and thought the best solution was just to smear it all over her face with her hand. Daycare centres are like germ superspreader distribution hubs.
52
Our daughter’s preschool (age 3+) taught the kids to cough and sneeze into the crook of their arms. That is also the accepted way in healthcare. The practice keeps hands cleaner. Germs don’t survive as well on fabric (as compared to hard surfaces). Years later, our entire family still does this.
You are right about daycare centres though. The impact will be enormous if the virus gets that far.
40
Be clear, aerosols spread through breathing. handwashing, not touching faces, those help but even being perfect at them will not stop some spreading. They improve the odds. So does rapid airflow, being outdoors, and keeping some distance.
To be a broken record, the only thing that stops aerosol and asymptomatic spread is 100% quarantine.
40
Great… I can’t wait to get on a plane.
10
Still no deaths of Europeans as far as I know.
The real test for non Chinese folk will be in the progress of the sickness in those of European ethnicity who are currently diagnosed positive for the disease.
There is a lot of talk in the UK media about the ‘normal’ response to the disease as being mild but with a certain number of unfortunates where it proves fatal. Not so different to the usual flu virus on that basis but the ratio of deaths to infection is currently unclear for Europeans and other non Chinese.
The Chinese fatality rate could be amplified by a range of factors apart from their known difference from other races in the number of ACE receptors available for the virus to lock on to.
There comes a point where the societal consequences of fighting the spread become worse than letting it run its course and that is dependent on the fatality numbers.
It is no use creating starvation and increased deaths from multiple other ailments in order to constrain the spread of a disease with low mortality rates.
It is not entirely clear that the Chinese deaths are all a direct result of the virus given the poor local environmental conditions in their cities and their limited medical services relative to population density.
It may even be appropriate to tolerate a moderately high mortality rate in order to preserve the global economic system since the survival of all those who will not die from the virus is highly dependent on global commerce continuing with as little disruption as possible.
I don’t envy whoever has to make the decisions regarding the correct balance between mortality rate and allowing it to run its course.
51
Stephen it would help give a clearer picture if the figures were broken down by ethnic groupings. I know it isn’t PC to say that but it would clear up the fear problem we are seeing.
10
We can’t break down ethnic groupings on data that is still too small to analyse.
Death rates could be anything from 0.1% to 6 or 7%. We have zero data on total infections.
What we know is that China is not behaving even remotely like this is a flu season. 500 million in quarantine there now, draconian measures and no real sign things are improving. Mass killing of animals happening. People welded into apartments. Armed guards in the streets. Empty streets with nightly gassing by industrial trucks to kill something.
We have one ICU bed in Australia per 12000 people. If 5 – 10% need oxygen and life support there aren’t enough beds. Hospitals here are much better than China, but people just won’t be able to get in unless we slow the epidemiology curve and drastically reduce the Ro. Or, of course, we hope get anti-virals that work, or some other treatment.
Could this be mass panic due to
50
The severity of the Chinese response is what is most unsettling. Either there is something they are not telling us or there has been a grossly disproportionate reaction attributable to their authoritarian mindset and which is making things worse. I’m hoping the latter, obviously.
We can’t be sure of anything until we have a few hundred diagnosed westerners more than 5 weeks into their illnesses. Where are we with that? We must be three weeks in for some by now.
The so called UK ‘super spreader’ seems to have been wandering around with minimal symptoms and appears completely recovered without treatment. Are there lots of undiagnosed Chinese who have dealt with it similarly ?
The populations of Chinese cities are so huge that one can create images of disaster just from compiling videos of several normal day to day events.
Was that image of the block of flats with only seven apartments illuminated taken in the early hours when everyone else was in bed with the lights out ?
How many people fall over in the street each day with a population of 10 million each member of which has a camera ‘phone handy ?
Maybe the sealing of apartments was after evacuation and designed to prevent squatting ?
Armed guards in the streets to prevent looting ?
Mass killing of animals because quarantined people can’t look after them ?
Most of the videos at #coronavirus could have been taken anywhere at anytime or even been staged.
We just do not know.
11
All good points, but there is one major point that might override them all. The last thing the CCP wants is a destroyed economy. The actions they are taking is destroying their economy. It is the last thing that they want, but here they are taking actions that hurt them. It is a clear sign that they are desperate.
40
Richard — exactly. Chinese production is falling off a cliff. Not only are Chinese factories closed, but even other factories outside china are closing due to a lack of supply.
The twitter flow three weeks ago on #coronavirus was gobsmackingly awful, but that thread is now diluted with repeats, boring official reports and many “advertisers”. What I saw three weeks ago was a nation under seige. Human rights abuses, mass animal deaths. Brutal beatings in the street. Men with guns. Doctors shaving their heads and wearing diapers in full hazmat suits so they didn’t need to decontaminate so often or go to the toilet. Doctors walking around untended bodies on the hospital floor — clearly avoiding the downed person — who had collapsed there. Doors of families being barricaded, welded. People running at full tilt to avoid being caught by ambulance workers in hazmat suits. Women being hit to the ground because they weren’t wearing face masks. Now pet dogs being dispatched with batons in the street. Truckloads of pigs being burned alive in mass pits. China is reacting like this is the plague.
That doesn’t mean it will have the same effect on us, for all the reasons I keep repeating : genes, culture, smog, food, nutrients, hygiene, warning, lower pop density, warmer air, not totalitarian, etc. Our fatality rates will be lower, but how low? How many people are we willing to let die in order to wait for better statistics?
Big “best guess” with as much info as we can muster is appropriate and adapt asap as more info comes in.
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Stephen, and zero data in my search with respect to those dying from causes unrelated to the virus. For example, people dying of starvation and even the cold…it’s minus four degrees Celsius in Wuhan at the moment.
https://www.travelchinaguide.com/climate/wuhan.htm
00
From that link:
“The lowest temperature of winter is around -2C (28F). You might feel much colder indoors, because there is no heater in most families and hotels in the city”
Cold and damp is ideal for the virus and worst possible for the immune system.
Add extreme pollution, lack of sunlight, poor hygiene, administrative mistakes, heavy smoking, cross infections from population density in cramped quarters, insufficient medical facilities for the numbers and you have the perfect storm.
The place is in an inland basin with lakes and pools all around, a perfect, swampy, breeding ground for disease even before human settlement.
00
But surely access to a government and WHO approved daily burger would contribute greatly to lowering the death toll…maybe they could use drones to deliver food in order to avoid human to human contact. Or maybe there is already a food distribution system in place. I don’t know. No data.. 🙁
00
Wuhan has been running around in China for a few months now. It’s been in the West for over a month from when anyone in the West started trying to test travelers for the infection.
Again, so far, of the three coronavirus bat viruses that jumped to humans, the death toll in the West has been either extremely low in the infected population or zero (as the case in the US). China will always be ravaged by any mutation of any virus due to their poverty, co-habitation with all sorts of animals and the crushing weight of their socialist dictators. Plus, one can predict that the virus will likely kill off most of the leaders of reform and Hong Kong semi-independence as in never let a killing disease go to waste.
All in all, so far the Wu-Wu is performing about like all the prior ones meaning in healthy populations, not much worse than severe colds. Still waiting for the huge death tolls in nations like the UK, US, Australia.
And, while the western governments have reacted a bit better than in the past, the fact remains that a truly highly contagious, deadly (over 4% death rate) with a 2 week incubation/infection period would circle the glove several times. Without quarantines in place for two weeks for ALL travelers, simply impossible. It’s just the high-tech world we live.
Regardless, it’s not very likely any healthy Westerner this year will die form the Wuhan, nor, for that matter, any of the other flus and colds.
Having said all that, it’s OK, imho, for those concerned to do lots and lots of planning, maybe even some trials, to create detention centers as quickly as possible. After all, building hospitals as the West builds things would mean they’d be ready sometime long after the zombie apocalypse rolled over us.
22
The only mass testing done in the west has been done on travellers and close contacts, and there were very few cases and the number is rising. There’s been no mass testing otherwise. You have no data. There are so few tests that Japan has not even tested everyone on that ship. Just 3700 tests?
Has there been a rise in pneumonia cases yet in the west? That was happening in December in Wuhan.
How about pneumonia in ethnic asians? No data means you have no idea.
Past strains of coronavirus have death rates ranging from 0 – 34%. One can’t predict anything from that.
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Yes. but . . . there is data:
See the overview of outbreaks of the various strains at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus which mostly are sourced from the WHO death
2003 SARS – 774
2012 MERS – over 400
2015 MERS – 36
2018 MERS – 41
This iteration (2019-2020) is listed at over 1300. For years 2003 through 2018 you can divide by whatever number of infections you choose, even 100%, and it’s just footnotes in the overall scheme of respiratory viruses Which kill tens of thousands each and every year. And mostly in same population subsets.
But there is “missing” data but we’re missing the deaths some expect. A UK paper has published headlines proclaiming hundred of thousand Wuhan deaths in the UK. One must read the article to find out it’s from projections.
Pick your date – November 2019 outbreak, or Deember 2019 or even up to January 14 (first news reports I can recall) and some blood tests confirm Wuhan outside of China but still looking for the first death. At this point, zero divided by anything is still zero. One finds it hard to provide data when there is none. Which brings me to my point:
With so few cases and zero deaths after one, two, three or more months circulating in the world what rationale does you have for embarking on massive public works?
00
So. Still no data that there was a single novel Corona outbreak outside China in Dec? Almost none in Jan.
The 400,000 estimate is by a prof with a model. He doesn’t sell that as anything other than what it is. I see you have no rational arguments why he is wrong just the hope that actually the virus is everywhere and undetected and not an issue. “Good luck”
I hope you are right but see no reason, no data, to think so.
00
The sad thing about all your assumptions is that, if they turn out to align with reality, it will not be because of any knowledge. It will be sheer luck, and it will serve to help preinforce the widespread apathy that takes Western comforts for granted.
01
If everyone is not allowed out, how do they get food?…by a government food distribution service??…doesn’t make any sense.
00
In Wuhan one family member was allowed out once a week to get supplies.
00
Thanks Richard..yep…found some info similar to yours earlier…still not satisfied though.
In comparison to other virus related news, a google search revealed ‘too few’ links to the food supply/distribution question directly.
10
I have not yet seen this blamed on climate change, but it has certainly edged out climate change in the news here in Canada.
We will soon be trough the flu season here but corona viruses (the common cold) is not a respecter of seasons.
Although any one unnecessary death is a tragedy this has not been terribly deadly. The death toll to date is not much higher than could be expected by a jumbo jet crash. The question, why do the people of Wuhan seem to be so vulnerable? Perhaps there are many times more people infected than reported. That could alter the ratios drastically.
10
Normally things were blamed on selfish greed, then nonsocialist nuclear weapons and power plants, then nuclear winter, then global warming, then climate weather, and now… what? The only cause I can imagine for coronavirus is government pensions. In a Great Leap Forward it is better to run out of old people than to run out of other people’s money, no?
10
There is really only one way to stop this spreading. Close all borders right now. Hard, yes. This one is way worse than the Spanish flu, and to avoid the real pandemic action is needed. Takes some guts from politicians they do not have though. Note, longest knows time from infection to symptoms right now is 24 days ! That means any travel with 14 days may just slow this down. Not stop it.
21
Just announced:
“All but one of the nine patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus have been discharged from hospital, the NHS has confirmed.
NHS England and NHS Improvement said that eight people who tested positive for COVID-19 – the disease caused by coronavirus – had left hospital following two negative tests.”
Some better news at last.
40
Right now only one in UK is reported as recovered. There is still 8 cases open. Maybe that will change later today, but I can’t find anything about that they recovered.
00
This seems to confirm that access to intensive care increases the survival rate dramatically. But that capability has been swamped in China and no country has sufficient intensive care capacity to withstand a pandemic.
10
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/all-but-one-of-uk-patients-who-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-now-discharged/ar-BB1022U4?ocid=spartandhp
Apparently no intensive care needed.
The one remaining is Chinese and recently arrived by ‘plane.
So, we have all 8 positive cases in the UK involving Europeans resolving with minimal medication plus the 5 in France infected by the UK ‘super spreader’ and the chap himself who was barely sick at all.
Hopeful signs, fingers crossed.
10
I Really hope you are right. But :
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Released from hospital ? but still in quarantine at home ? Not registered as resolved and still 8 cases open by Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE (See link above). Let’s hope they are all going to be fine.
00
1 still in isolation.
8 discharged from hospital
00
Do you have a link to that news?
00
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/all-but-one-of-uk-patients-who-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-now-discharged/ar-BB1022U4?ocid=spartandhp
00
Seems to me that before too long empty cruise ships will be going to anchor pending the cessation of this terrible plague. Instead of buildings authorities should commandeer these vessels as floating hospitals. They could easily be fitted out and easily deployed to wherever they were needed.
20
Communist China has finally attained the Golden Fleece of socialized medicine, so what could possibly go wrong? Am I beginning to sense a little envy in this forum? –libertariantranslator
00
It seems likely that China has local factors that massively inflate the mortality rate unless the UK outcome so far is a mere freak.
00
Hope it’s right in the end, but you are probably one to two weeks early to make any decent assessment. Wait two weeks and we will se the development in Singapore and Japan. Then we know a lot more.
00
An important overlooked factor.There has been little discussion of transmission via feces.If the virus is transmitted via this route then I would have thought that one of the immediate recommendations to the public would be to put the lid down before flushing.This prevents the virus being fanned up and becoming airborne. Secondly, spray bleach into the toilet between flushing.And clean all surfaces in bathroom with bleach spray. Unfortunately in many countries there are no toilet lids which may explain the rapid transmission via fecal contamination and also on soles of shoes etc as squat toilets are the norm.
80
The issue here is more to do with explosive diarhorea
When using squat toilets .
Squat toilets are very common in Asian & SEA countries.
30
This is not necessarily about explosive diarrhea. Any bug that carries/survives through the stomach and can live in feces either in virus or spore form and will travel via air/water droplets can spread through the toileting system. My experience is with managing the spread of a hospital super bug that is now rife in aged care.People even without symptoms can spread it via the toilet system.
10
Updates from LKarry Ledwick on Musings From Chiefio
1: “Pretty good evidence that China knew at least by January 2 2020 that the pandemic was brewing
That is the date they locked down a military training academy.”
Source via Twitter
曾錚 Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd
“This is really a bombshell. Naval University of Engineering in #Wuhan, one of the five comprehensive military universities of PLA (official info: http://bit.ly/2URmJ5x ) issued a lockdown notice on Jan. 2, 18 days BEFORE the gov. admitted there was an epidemic, 21 days BEFORE..”
2 : China is quarantining cash and starting a disinfection hold on cash. using UV light & heat
https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/15/chinese-bank-notes-quarantined-in-covid-19-coronavirus-crisis
“The Chinese People’s Bank will disinfect used banknotes by ultraviolet light or high temperatures. Other measures include the issuance of new banknotes and a ban on cash from circulating from one province to another.
The People’s Bank of China is withdrawing the banknotes used to disinfect them in an effort to stop the spread of Covid-19, which has already claimed the lives of more than 1,500 people in the Asian country, the agency’s vice president, Fan Yifei, reported saturday.
New color images show what the coronavirus is like
“After the outbreak broke out, we began to pay special attention to the safety and health of the population when they use cash, and we took a number of measures,” said Fan, quoted by the Sina portal.
Another such measure is the issuance of more than 600 billion yuan (more than $85 billion) in new bills. Previously, 4 billion yuan (more than $570 million) in new bills were urgently shipped to Hubei province, where the deadly virus originated last December.
In addition, the circulation of cash between provinces, as well as within the provinces where the epidemiological situation is most serious, was suspended.
Meanwhile, used banknotes are now removed for disinfection, which is done by ultraviolet light or by subjecting them to high temperatures. Banks then seal the banknotes and quarantine them for 7 to 14 days,depending on the severity of the outbreak in one region or another, before putting them back into circulation.
However, banknotes received from hospitals and agricultural markets are stored in isolation and do not return to circulation after being disinfected. ”
3: The Wuhan province government has introduced even stricter quarantine rules :”Strict quarantine rules in China – they are basically putting everyone under house arrest.
何凯丽
@k_wuttt
Here’s a loose English translation of an announcement from the government of Wuhan.
‘Nobody will be allowed out of their residence, no outsider will be allowed in; no exceptions, no special conditions.
Residents “shall not go out.”#coronavirus #SARSCov2 #COVID19 https://twitter.com/xinyanyu/status/1228365678777962496 …’
Clearly if the Chinese government feels it is essential to take these measures, there is a MAJOR disease threat present in China especially in Wuhan. It’s also clear that, while we in Australia, UK, EU , USA etc. have escaped major infection so far, we are observing an awful tragedy for the Chinese people.
00
The world has gone mad .
A virus that could have been contained by bureaucrats whom had early warning from doctors .
Politicians all over the world who rather fight each other than work together for the common good of us plebs .
Arguments about what causes climate change rather than just addressing it .
Right wing populist movements accused by the left for being popular.
History tells us we r just a blip on the radar in the whole scheme of time .
Interesting times ahead . lol
22
Just to put things in perspective, Does anyone know how many babies were aborted yesterday 120,000 so excuse me for not worrying about the so called pandemic.
23
Diamond Princess Update
Total number of people on board 3700
Number of people tested 1219
Number who tested positive today : 70
Number testing positive with NO symptoms 38
Number testing positive to Corona Virus so far 355
Thirty eight people out of seventy were carrying the virus with no symptoms.
Herein lies the reason why the Chinese government have imposed such a complete lockdown on Wuhan has the surrounding province.
20
Link : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-16/diamond-princess-coronavirus-cases-70-more-confirmed/11970134
00
Closer to home – my university has been unable to obtain face masks for lab use. Apparently the wholesalers have had their supplies commandeered by the health services. If any are coming into Australia, they aren’t making it to the wholesale and retail market. Scuttlebutt from some people working in health care is there has been large scale pilfering of face masks from facilities, most likely by staff.
20
As an ardent ABC 24 watcher, I feel so strange lately – they do not link Wuhan event to Climate Catastrophe.
At least I have not heard it.
Maybe it seems to be a “winter sickness” – awkward to associate with possible 0.5 deg temperature rising by 2030.
Still, common sense did not stop them before …
10
The New York based Epoch Times is not exactly pro China.So articles sourced from it have their biases. But to me this one is on the ball.
China Hobbles Efforts Toward COVID-19 Vaccine ! China is withholding and skewing crucial data about the disease
James Gorrie
February 14, 2020 Updated: February 14, 2020FONT BFONT SText size Print
“As the threat of an emerging pandemic grows, medical experts are already predicting that the COVID-19 virus will likely reach every nation on the planet. They’re also warning that the longer the outbreak continues, the more risk there is for a global pandemic that could threaten millions of lives.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-hobbles-efforts-toward-covid-19-vaccine_3238729.html
A Mutating Threat to Humanity
In other words, the longer the virus goes unchecked, the more difficult it will become to find a vaccine. The reasoning is simple but devastating.
Like a flu virus, COVID-19 has the ability to rapidly change its form—this is known as the mutation rate. As mutations occur, new strains of the COVID-19 virus can develop over time.
Those new strains would be both familiar with the human immune system and yet foreign to human immune system at the same time. The process is deadly logical. As the virus infects victims, it gathers more information about the human immune system. The virus then mutates so that it becomes more adaptable to the immune systems of new victims.
That adaptation process makes the virus even more deadly. In fact, more than 20 strains of the virus have been found in infected people.
That’s why and how COVID-19 can potentially become even more contagious and with higher fatality rates than the current strain. Plus, with an asymptomatic incubation period of up to 24 days, the potential for a greater and deadlier pandemic is all but assured.
Time, therefore, is not on our side.
Politicizing the Outbreak
The world may be facing a global threat that should neither be ignored nor politicized. And yet, that’s exactly what’s happening. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is making the search for a cure to the COVID-19 virus more difficult than it already is or needs to be.
For one, even though the disease has become an outbreak in a matter of weeks, Beijing is still withholding critical information from its own people as well as the rest of the world.
As Jennifer Nuzzo from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security recently pointed out, “As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better.”
However, with Beijing manipulating the numbers of both infected and fatalities, no one can say for certain if the disease has slowed, as the Chinese authorities contend. It may simply be one more false effort to save face.
Needless to say, it is vitally important that all information about the virus itself as well as the status of the outbreak be made available to the proper and most capable medical authorities around the world. But information gaps persist. Researchers are still unclear on the contagion level—known as the R0 rate—of CODIV-19 due to incomplete information.
Data gaps in information from Chinese authorities also make it difficult to get an accurate model of the outbreak, which would help predict the spread of the disease going forward.
Getting Almost the Best Help?
On a positive note, Beijing has finally invited scientists and doctors from the World Health Organization (WHO) to China to help solve this very urgent situation. And yet, for more than a month, China refused the offer by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to help with the outbreak.
Why exclude one of the most knowledgeable resource on the planet? Does the CCP fear that it will appear incompetent? Too late. That fact spread quicker than the virus.
The CCP’s political pride is not only a main cause of the spread of the disease, it’s a luxury that neither China nor the rest of the world can afford.
More Unknowns…
As it currently stands, much of the information from the CCP leadership and health authorities is incomplete, confusing or contradictory.
For example, Chinese authorities have lately suggested that countries resume air travel to China and claimed that they are getting ahead of the outbreak.
But given the deteriorating situation on the ground, and Beijing’s dissembling, how could anyone know or believe anything that the CCP says, to be true?
For instance, it is unknown if COVID-19 is a seasonal virus, more active in winter than in warmer months, or not. If it is, that would give the scientific community more time. But no one yet knows.
Another theory postulates that men are more susceptible to the virus. Is that because more men in China smoke? That’s one possibility, but remains unverified.
Or more importantly, is the virus a product of bio-engineering, or did it come from wild animals kept in the open market in Wuhan? If the former, a vaccine may already exist or partially exist within that same Chinese laboratory. In either case, correct information would be helpful.
But there doesn’t seem to be any definitive answers to these or many other questions coming from Beijing. As former CDC chief Tom Friedman noted recently, “We still don’t have very basic information.”
If we are going to get ahead of this disease, if we want to minimize the potential suffering and tragedy caused by the expanding COVID-19 virus outbreak, the one thing that must not be quarantined is information. Everything about it, from its origins to its mutations to studying survivors’ immune systems, must be made available.
Fortunately, there is some good news. Biolabs and pharmaceutical companies around the world are working together, sharing information, to develop a vaccine.
The CCP should follow their example.”
James Gorrie is a writer and speaker based in Southern California. He is the author of “The China Crisis.”
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
00
Mutations can also reduce the vigour of a virus. Generally there is a trade off between infectious capability and the mortality rate.
Colds and influenza have developed towards high infection rates but lower fatality rates and likely this one will too.
00
Link : https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-hobbles-efforts-toward-covid-19-vaccine_3238729.html
00
This it Truly Bizarre;
Diamond Princess Passengers Imprisoned while Infection Spreads but No Outside Health Care and No Experimental Monitoring!
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/diamond-princess-coronavirus-cases-jump-by-70-taking-total-to-355-on-cruise-ship/ar-BB102RBq?ocid=spartanntp
Please either get them off the plague ship or get infectious disease teams on board!
The ship is an experimental chamber, but no one has agreed to the experiment. They are all involuntary subjects.
Just as bad; the experiment is compromised because no one knows how the experimental chamber actually works (air circulation, toilet plumbing, food distribution, going on deck for exercise etc)
20
Peter, This is NOT bizarre ! This is normal maritime quarantine law !
Once it was clear that a person who had been on the ship
Was sick with Corona Virus disease in Hong kong
It was also clear that others would probably be infected.
And then no country wanted to allow the passengers to disembark.
The Philippines, Taiwan, Korea & I think Shanghai refused entry to this ship.
Why ? They rightfully fearing the disease would then spread to their country !
Japan finally agreed that the ship could tie up at Yokohama.
And then Japanese sovergnty & quarantine law came into effect.
The Japanese are making the rules.
They are doing the testing.
They are hospitalising all persons infected with this virus.
And they are not allowing other persons off the ship so as to avoid spreading the disease in Japan.
(Though there is the option of paying for quarantine ashore for those who can afford it. )
The ship could leave Yokohama but there is no other country or port willing to accept them.
This Corona virus disease has revealed the fatal flaw in the . whole cruise ship industry :
diseases spreading among passengers
And then being refused entry into ports.
10
Our NHS has emphatically stated that it is droplet transmission rather than via aerosols. That makes sense because aerosols would infect everyone sharing an air con system at pretty much the same time but that has not happened on various flights and cruise ships.
Likely via digestive tract too as suggested by the steady accumulation of cases on cruise ships where the passengers avoid close contact.
Next critical indicator is the severity of symptoms of those diagnosed on the cruise ship. Thus far only half a dozen have serious illness and the average age will be high with lots of underlying conditions.
If the cruise ship patients resolve as readily as the UK ones did then this becomes primarily a Chinese problem rather than a global one.
10
Build the hospitial cabin things, then when the crisis is over, they can be used by the homeless
00