JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Once again, apologies for butting in – just got an invite to Heat, Fire & Flood community forum at Elwood College, Glen Huntly Rd., organised by Port Philip Emergency Climate Action Network.
Prof. N. Tapper, L. Ramachandran, public servant, and R. Gell AM will speak to all concerned between 3:30 and 5:30 pm., on Saturday 29 Feb.
I wanted to go but it will be a pity to waste 2 hours, if they just repeat usual ABC propaganda.
Any chance someone who can lay out good argument is coming ?
90
Your BoM is calling “snow to 1,000 metres” for the Apple Isle tomorrow, surely that’s enough to blow the cuckoo crackers out of the water, no?
Apologies I can’t attend – best wishes!
100
Maybe we should ask a real climate scientist like Leonardo Di Caprio for a definition.
80
Here is my definition of a climate change denier. A person that believes the climate stays the same and when it varies they blame mankind.
402
That is probably the best interpretation I’ve ever seen !
130
I agreed with this, until I reread it. This is a man made Climate Change supporter, not a denier.
A Climate Change denier is someone who believes that mankind has no control over the weather let alone climates.
A Climate Change promoter is someone who makes money or political points from claiming every storm or drought or fire or flood is the result of man. And we should pay.
201
Sorry TDef,
I think scaper’s definition is more accurate.
A Climate Change Denier denies the natural climate has always changed and believes humans caused it.
90
Not a problem, both are valid reactions to a nasty insult aimed at sceptics.
Climate Change denier is an obviously perjorative term with overtones of holocaust denier and historically applied to all sceptics.
It is meant to be an insult. Someone who denies a terrible truth.
Scaper has flipped it around logically to apply to a warmist who believes nothing changes unless it is someone’s fault. It is a way of reacting to an intended insult, reversal. No, you’re a denier.
My view is to agree that while Climate Change is obviously undeniable historically but I deny that we have any control over the weather.
They are both ways of reacting to a calculated insult, reversal and disarming. You choose. Or both.
60
Me, I never made the Holocaust connection. Denial and denier are valid and connotation unintended in my view. No offence in my view as I retort whose is doing the denying.
10
didn’t know Jo had new threads up. just posted this (and other stuff) on “Australia installs” thread:
25 Feb: Australian: NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service in bushfire hazard burning U-turn
Exclusive by Yoni Bashan, NSW Political Correspondent
After months spent defending its annual hazard reduction target of 135,000ha during the devastating summer bushfire season, the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service has asked for more money to increase its burning operations on the state’s crown lands and national parks.
By submitting a budget request for additional funds to enable it to reduce fuel loads on forest floors, the service has, in effect, conceded its recent efforts to control the bushfires did not go far enough and more work will be required to prevent a repeat of the calamity this year.
The Australian has been told the business case calls for a significant increase to the amount of hazard reduction the agency undertakes around homes, properties and environmental assets.
The revelations jar with accusations made by Deputy Premier and Nationals leader John Barilaro earlier this year that the agency was “ideologically opposed” to increasing controlled burning.
An official familiar with the matter said NSW Environment Minister Matt Kean instructed officials to nominate whatever figure they thought necessary to prevent a repeat this summer’s fire conditions.
The request is being assessed by Treasury officials.
“Our submission has been developed by experts and the best science,” the official said…
According to its annual report figures, the NSW NPWS reached its hazard reduction target of 135,000ha in 2018-2019, but fell short during its previous two years, by 29 per cent and 35 per cent respectively…
For Mr Kean, any move to increase hazard reduction activities is likely to play well with his Nationals colleagues, some of whom have criticised his response to the fires and accused him of pushing a “green ideology” by linking the fires to climate change…
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nsw-national-parks-and-wildlife-service-in-bushfire-hazard-burning-uturn/news-story/da26cb0b66a21591e4065cda87a6bb73
100
Just because the organisation has put in a Budget bid for addtional funds does not mean that Deputy Premier Barilaro is wrong. In fact I think the evidence is that’s he’s correct.
The NPWS has more excuses than a disappointed greenie as to why it was not possible to undertake sufficient fuel control activity in the period prior to the November – February disaster. Just wait until we see the depositions made to the Royal Commission on why a negligent level of fuel reduction was undertaken.
Horse. Stable. Bolted.
90
Maybe its time for the lawyers to go after the heads of these agencies.
The gloves need to come off.
If these numpties follow the greenist agenda, well then they should suffer the consequences.
I think about what those fires did and the circumstances that lead up to them…..
40
The 135,000 ha figure is useless until you compare it against the total acreage for all NSW’s 850 parks – 7,000,000 ha. So only 1.9% was burnt, which is better than Vic who burnt 1.3% last year. But it’s still a long way off what’s required to keep the fuel load down.
70
Require 7 to 10 % to be effective
50
These statistics need a little positioning. Easy to do lots out the back and never do the bit along village back fences.
Doug
60
Doug, there is a curve generated in a research paper that shows modelling for the expected litter rates over a number of years. Eyeballing this logarithmic graph indicates that at 10 years, litter rises to about 57 tonnes/ha, and I’m guessing that this figure would exceed to 3 MW/m figure provided by David Packham, so I would say that a fire with this amount of litter would definitely by uncontrollable.
70
G’day G4,
Do you have a link/ reference for that paper please? Those numbers look funny to me.
My understanding is that fire intensity increases with the square of fuel load, and fuel load in Australian eucalypt forests increases at about one tonne/ha/year, at least as a broad estimator.
Cheers
Dave B
20
Sure Dave.
I derived the litter figures from this document, with the aid of a spreadsheet for the conversions:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308523273_Eucalyptus_Fuel_dynamics_and_fire_hazard_in_the_Oakland_Hills
David Packard’s submission to the Victorian Parliament is here:
https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/SCEP/Fire_Season_Prepardeness/Submissions/Submission_27_-_David_Roy_Packham.pdf
David References the “Project Aquarius” paper. I obtained Part 4:
https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/wf9970099
Would be interested to see what you make of it.
20
Agree Mal, but I haven’t as yet seen any linkages between litter rates and fire intensities. Was wondering when the 3MW/ha figure would be exceeded, rendering the fire uncontrollable.
50
Should have checked first – it’s 3MW/m Byram fire intensity, from the David Packham paper.
61
57t/ha corresponds to 5.7kg/sq.m. Each kg of dry wood produces around 4kWh when burnt corresponding to 14.4MJ.
A fire front moving at a solid pace of 10m/s will be producing 144MW/m of front; about twice that needed for catastrophic conditions. With a controlled burn they aim to have less than 0.5MW/m.
50
Thanks Rick. So what would you say is the maximum speed of a controllable fire? From that we should be able to work out the litter tonnes for a 3 MW/m fire.
30
It turns out that the figures are available from the CSIRO’s “Project Aquarius” paper, Table 1. This was the paper referred to by David Packham. A fuel load of 8.2 t/ha results in a fire intensity of 1.6 to 2MW/m, while a fuel load of 11.3 t/ha results in 1.9 to 3.2 MW/m. I’m cherry- picking data from the table, but at least it gives me an idea of a typical manageable fuel load.
30
?? If 3 MW/m is considered uncontrollable……
And 3 MW/m is generated by 10-15t/ha. (1.0 – 1.5 kg/m2 ) of fuel load.
It seems 1.5kg/m2 of fuel is not very much ?..(one small branch ?)
Most of my local park/forrest areas must have 10x that amount !
Note: even some areas that burnt in January already have 0.5m+ of green bracken and other ground growth , which, if dry, would alreadybe close to 1kg+ of fuel !!
21
Chad, Part 4 of the CSIRO’s “Project Aquarius” made for interesting reading. It seems that even if a fire gets up to 1 MW/m, it’s hard to control. At one stage in the fire tests they lit one fire that jumped up to 7 MW/m and they then had to back off and let itself burn out – apparently was a bit scary. Interestingly, no results are recorded for that day (28 February 1983). If you look for this project on the web, there is a lot of info, including a movie of some of the tests. From the paper: Shortly after ignition the fire averaged 7080 kW per metre of fire front over a 7 minute interval and travelled at more than 1300 metres per hour. Flames were commnonly 5-6 m high, intermittently extending into the tree crowns more than 25 m above the ground, and numerous spot fires were ignited up to 300 m down-wind of the head fire. It was clearly unsafe for firefighters to tackle such a fire.”
Also from the same paper” “…showed that head-fire intensity of most fires exceeded 1000 kW per metre of fire front at some stage and ranged as high as 3280 kW/m, challenging the crew in much the same way as summer wildfires and evoking similar uncertainty and apprehension.”
20
Preferably more.
00
G#4 – there are 7 million hectares of NSW parks! Why in god’s name do we need this much of the state removed from (potentially) productive private ownership and management and locked up, to be maintained (if you can call it that) at taxpayer expense? Has anyone questioned this vast land grab over the past couple of decades that got us here, and if not, why not? The gulf between the 135,00 ha target of controlled burning vs the sensible 10% (700,000 ha) figure bells the cat – it would tell me that the resources of the NSW NPW are not up to the task of managing 7 million hectares, and as these vast parks are clearly a burden on NSW taxpayers, IMO most of them should be returned to private ownership.
60
Couldn’t agree more. And the more I research into the issues of managing fuel loads, it seems that even 20%/year prescribed burning may not be enough. I agree with you that a possible solution is to return a lot of the forest to private use for logging, etc., and make them responsible for fuel load management.
40
Actually 20% that is a five year rotation is closer to the ballpark. That depends of course on the forest type/plant community. Grassland and heath land preferably shorter rotation.
20
I was originally supporting 10%/yr, but when I looked into the “Project Aquarius” paper, I now believe 20% would be required. It appears that open Heath and grassland can get by with half that – 10%. So perhaps a solution is to convert some of the forests into grassland – won’t the greens love that!
10
Why not just enable and encourage logging? Win-win.
00
24 Feb: Breitbart: James Delingpole: Delingpole: Eco-Loon Boris’s £3 Trillion Net-Zero Scheme Will Bankrupt Britain, Reports Warn
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net zero policy will cost taxpayers the equivalent of a £100 billion HS2 project every year till 2050. The final bill will surpass £3 trillion – the equivalent of £100,000 per household.
These are the shock findings of a series of reports into the true cost of Boris’s scheme to decarbonise the UK economy by 2050.
The summary (LINK), by Andrew Montford of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, finds that no credible attempt has been made by the government to cost its ‘Net Zero by 2050’ scheme, which was bequeathed to it by Theresa May in the dog days of her failing premiership…READ ALL
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/02/24/boriss-net-zero-scheme-will-cost-taxpayers-3-trillion/
60
I am hoping that Boris wakes up soon. Brexit was the reason he was elected. Man made GLobal Warming is a profitable fantasy which will wreck Western democracies like Germany and France and now Britain. It is an obvious power play by the EU/UN, nothing more. Not real science, political science fiction.
220
I have no idea what these so called conservatives are doing promoting this net zero nonsense. Is there some deeper logic to it or are they truly in the grip of the alarmist stupidity?
140
….it has nothing to do with politics because the privately owned creditor calls the tune. If the climate/etc creditors don’t like boris, well then that is tough for boris and the creditors can find someone else to print money for….. different in a country that owns its own sovereign bank.
30
John…..”deeper logic” indeed….
10
Boris must ditch his crazy Leftist gf. She will ruin the country.
50
Meanwhile, this from the ABC, with reference to ‘the worst disaster that has ever hit the planet’. What? I think this commie piece of work just blew her credibility: https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/world-top-climate-negotiator-condemns-australian-response-bushfi/11989658?sf230536887=1&fbclid=IwAR2V-on2uTDiDtcJKDF6D3gY4CiR1ySVVZD6xO0ACxIEQKLi_OF1RE6nENQ
70
She’s not just a diplomat. She is part of the master class of Costa Rica. Her father invented the country as founding President and her brother was President twice. She and her family live at the UN and make their living from it. Another family group of born to rue sociologists who live as the privileged few at the UN. Her degree is in anthropology. Her training is in political power and Climate Change is her key to success. Of course it is rubbish.
300
She’s just another Communist riding on the backs of the useful idiots (the greenies) to achieve her personal objectives of power, control and money.
They’re all the same. Those who continue to support them are slow learners. Venezuela, Kampuchea, Cuba, Zimbabwe, Laos, USSR and China (the Communist bit) mean nothing to them. They’re on a long march to oblivion. Natural Selection.
90
And avowed communist Adam Bandt, now leader of the Greens in Australia. Tell them what they want to hear is his motto.
80
You mean ‘tell my inner city largely undergraduate electorate what to hear’?
80
I suggest the power and money is an anesthetic use to hide their deeper truth of hating the responsibility of being human. EVERYTHING they do destroys the good BECAUSE it is good. It is anti mind, anti human, and anti life that is their primary (covert) motivation. The virtue signaling and accumulation of power, money, and the like are just game points accumulated on the way to destroying everything worth having.
60
Lionell, I think youve just described what appears to be rather Faustian …..
20
Last time I was in Laos a few years ago it was interesting to see two brand new Lamborghinis by the kerb outside a chicken rice shop in central Vientiane. The importer’s office was the shophouse next door, lol. The only types in Laos who could afford a Lambo are the rich princeling kids of the original Pathet Lao communists who took over in 1975. Marxism can be quite a lucrative ideology if you are the one holding the AK-47 and controlling the central bank. Every year the West gives you billions in foreign aid. The trick is to stay poor, so the welfare payments keep coming…
00
Well, if she’s deeply pained, then I’m deeply happy.
KK
50
A bit of a gamble like this?
https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/redpowerphotos/monthly_2020_02/747AE6CE-6446-499E-9021-4D4A0D154B0A.jpeg.388f5bb7c5eeab4fc6030007d5c90d36.jpeg
20
Let us not forget that statement, on the record, made by United Nations official Christiana Figueres at a news conference in Brussels. Figueres admitted that the Global Warming conspiracy set by the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, of which she is the executive secretary, has a goal not of environmental activists to save the world from ecological calamity, but to destroy capitalism. She said: ‘This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution.’
She even restated that goal ensuring ’twas not a mistake: ‘This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model for the first time in human history’
180
Yep. Pack of commie ratbags who want to bind us to their collectivist yoke. No way.
70
I did not know it had anything to do with any kind of politics……it is the creditor who draws the line in the sand.
10
Beth, I worry that the current corona virus thing could be used to further the socilaist UN cause through abuse of emergency powers…..
Forced this, that and the other.
No one will question it until people get very sick after the “cures” or “”preventatives” are forcibly handed out at …er….needle point….
30
I always took that statement to refer to decoupling economic growth from fossil fuel use, not capitalism. Capitalism is well over 150 years old. I think she is referring to the fossil fuel fueled industrial revolution.
00
I thought it was interesting that 56% of Australians blamed the fires on lack of hazard reduction but only 35% blamed Climate Change. (https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6135121889001)
Politicians ignore this at their peril.
230
And the 35% who blame Climate Change are parroting what they are told by their ABC.
230
Heard a brief piece on the ABC (supposedly the News) this afternoon where the commentator was quite excited by the news that a Norwegian company had abandoned drilling for gas in the Australian Bight, and what good news this was for S.A.
50
Imagine the dilemma if they found huge reserves of gas! It would all have to go overseas to save us from ourselves.
120
No the 35% are brain dead, scientifically ignorant socialist sc*m that support the ALP/Greens.
30
Sorry John politicians couldn’t give a rat’s about what the public think as they’re all in on the scam, angling for a cherry UN job that pays great while doing nothing, treating public money as their own, protected by the MSM, given away property and sovereignty to foreign powers under the myriad of climate treaties and goals, see the constitution as something they can alter without plebiscites but with the stroke of a pen in a session no one is allowed to see, know that the people are largely unarmed and view police as private security used to suppress dissension but back sanctioned protests, continue to laud the unseen benefits of the unchecked migration of some of the most violent and repressive cultures known.
Looking at the above I’m sure these people (loosely used) are losing a ton of sleep over that Newspoll…..sarc\.
140
didn’t hear a word about Trump/India on any radio news this morning. also, nothing on ABC Breakfast, The World Today or PM, so thought I’d post the following and let it speak for itself.
skim through if you don’t have time for it all:
VIDEO: 2h43m43s: 24 Feb: UK Sun: US President Donald Trump arrives in India on two day visit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoTWwtTYpOQ&app=desktop
PIC: 24 Feb: Breitbart: India Debuts Popular ‘Namaste Trump’ Hats for Historic Trump Speech
by Charlie Spiering
The white hats featured the flags of the United States and India on the brim…
The hats were placed on every seat at the stadium…
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/24/india-debuts-popular-namaste-trump-hats-for-historic-trump-speech/
Motera Coliseum, the just-completed world’s largest cricket ground, has a capacity of 110,000 when cricket is being played; Indian media report 125,000 for Trump/Modi event.
25 Feb: IndiaWest: Trump Enthralls Mammoth 125,000-strong Audience at Motera Coliseum
by Indo-Asian News Service (IANS)
ABC documents the occasion:
25 Feb: ABC: Donald Trump arrived in India with much fanfare. Here are the key moments from his first day
By South Asia correspondent James Oaten, wires
Video: Mr Trump stumbles over name of Indian cricket legend during state visit
Key points: Mr Trump also stumbled over the names of Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat
United States President Donald Trump has mangled the pronunciation of several Indian names, including cricket legend Sachin Tendulkar, on an otherwise successful first day of his state visit to India…
During his speech, Mr Trump also cited a famous 19th century Hindu monk — often quoted by Mr Modi himself — Swami Vivekananda, but it came out as “Vivekamumund”.
Mr Trump also stumbled over the names of Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat and its biggest city Ahmedabad — where he was speaking — as well as the names of two Indian cricket heroes, Sachin Tendulkar and current team captain Virat Kohli…
Professor Rajesh Rajagopalan, from the Indian university JNU, said this trip was always likely to be much more about the spectacle than substance…
Mr Trump and Mr Modi are the two most popular world leaders on social media.
In the days leading up to the visit, Mr Trump tweeted: “Donald J. Trump is Number 1 on Facebook. Number 2 is Prime Minister Modi of India”.
It’s actually the other way around…
Photo: Mr Trump also stumbled over the names of Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat and its biggest city Ahmedabad
When Mr Trump mispronounced the name of Indian cricket great Sachin Tendulkar, it quickly gained ridicule online…
But in a sign of the underlying political tensions in India, violent protests broke out in Delhi — where Mr Trump is due on Tuesday — over a new citizenship law…
40
Imagine, an American President not knowing about the importance of cricket and its heroes!
Otherwise it looked like a very enthusiastic reception, in keeping with the 4 million Indian nationals helping in the US with running convenience stores, take away restaurants and Silicon Valley.
100
“Tank you – come again!”
Apu Nahasapeemapetilon (RIP).
70
Was the cause of death political correctness or old age Greg ?
Not sure of what the aging equivalent is for cartoon characters!
00
Robert, Apu was killed by political correctness.
00
Some convenience store clerks die young – some live forever!
I Have James Woods!
10
Yes- we all pronounce previously unseen Indian names and places very well – don’t we?
50
Both Channel 10 and 7 aired the brief portion of Trumps speech in India where he struggled with pronunciation of Sachin Tendulkar. They panned the inside of the arena showing thousands cheering and then showed streets riots suggesting they were just outside the arena.
Same portion of the speech the Guardian has here:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/25/trump-stumbles-over-sachin-tendulkars-name-during-india-visit
The reporting of Trump is soooo biased it continually demonstrates the childish response to Trump being elected.
Since I sent an email to the Whitehouse, I get daily email updates titled West Wing Reads. I begin to realise how demanding Trump’s schedule is.
50
Classic Guardian coverage. Same paper that has BANNED any questioning of climate orthodoxy. Readers are instructed to report on any comments or coverage which questions the mainstream view, so they can be quickly and efficiently deleted.
50
For those who watch the ABC here are a few items that they may have missed.
In April 1856, 15-year old Nongqawuse claimed that the spirits had told her that the Xhosa people should destroy their crops and kill their cattle, the source of their wealth as well as food.
Nongqawuse predicted that the ancestors’ promise would be fulfilled on February 18, 1857, when the sun would turn red. Not all Xhosa people believed Nongawuse’s prophecies. A small minority refused to slaughter and neglect their crops, and this refusal was used by Nongqawuse to rationalize the failure of the prophecies over a period of fifteen months (April 1856–June 1857)
In the aftermath of the crisis, the population of British Kaffraria dropped from 105,000 to fewer than 27,000 due to the resulting famine.
1987 Dr. John Holdren, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy for the Obama administration then a professor at U.C. Berkeley was cited by Paul Ehrlich: it is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.
( 2009 Dr. John Holdren when questioned by Sen. David Vitter
admitted that 1 billion people lost by 2020 was still a possibility.)
1988 (Sept. 11-13) Edgar C. Whisenant, a former NASA engineer, wrote 2 books about this date:88 Reasons why the rapture will be in 1988. Subsequent predictions were for 1989, 1993, and 1994
1989 Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. As global warming melts polar icecaps, ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations.
1997 (March 26) A cult called Heaven’s Gate believing that a spacecraft was secretly following the Hale-Bopp comet and the only way to be saved was to commit mass suicide, after which their souls would board the spaceship. 39 did so.
2004: Britain to have Siberian climate by 2020
Source: The Guardian, February 21, 2004
2005 Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned that there could be up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade.
2005Tim Flannery predicted Sydney’s dams could be dry in as little as two years because global warming was drying up the rains, leaving the city “facing extreme difficulties with water”.
2007 Tim Flannery hotter soils meant that “even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems”.
2007 IPCC AR4 predicts that by 2020 between 75 and 250 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%.
2007 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US Navy predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer 2013, and said the prediction was conservative.
2007 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer in 2012.
2008 University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber predicted an ice-free North Pole for the first time in history in 2008,
2008: Al Gore warns of ice-free Arctic by 2013
December 14, 2008 Al Gore addressing the COP15 climate Conference
2008 UN Deputy secretary-general Srgjan Kerim, tells the UN General Assembly, that it had been estimated that there would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010.
2009: Arctic ice-free by 2014 Al Gore USA Today, Dec. 14
2009: Prince Charles says only 8 years to save the planet Source: The Independent, July 9, 2009
2009: says 50 days to ‘save the planet from catastrophe’
UK prime minister (Gordon Brown) The Independent, July 9, 2009
2011 Cristina Tirado, from the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at UCLA, says 50 million “environmental refugees” will flood into the global north by 2020, fleeing food shortages sparked by climate change.
2012 Prof. Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at the University of Cambridge (UK), predicted a collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2015-2016,
2017: Only 4 years to save the PlanetThe Daily Mail June 29, quoting former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres and 3 top Climate Scientists. 2020 is the new deadline to avoid climate catastrophe.
And we can look forward for doom REAL SOON.
2018: Only 12 years to save the Planet
In August 2018, 15 year old Greta Thunberg started a school strike for the climate outside the Swedish Parliament.
2026 Physicist Heinz von Förster made this tongue-in-cheek prediction in 1960, based on the growth of human population, which would reach infinite proportions on the date of his 115th birthday.
2048 Bestselling Christian author Hal Lindsey, who previously made claims such as “The decade of the 1980’s could very well be the last decade as we know it” and later predicted both 2000 and 2007 as the Earth’s final years, has now revised his claim to 2048.
2060: Isaac Newton is often reported as saying that the Earth would end this year. What he wrote in 1704 was: “It may end later, but I see no reason for its ending sooner. This I mention not to assert the time of the end to come, but to put a stop to the rash conjectures of fanciful men who are frequently predicting the end of time”
180
Not a single prediction has been right, but the real objective is to continue promoting doomsday scenarios and scare people into voting for the most unlikely saviour, communism and the redistribution of wealth. That will fix the weather overnight.
120
Ian Plimer in “Heaven and Earth” has 68 (IIRC) ends of te world listed to when it was published so does not include more recent Charlie’s, Greta’s etc.
90
Oops! Forgot –
And Turnbull’s
30
What amazes me beyond all else is the fact that the more these idiots are proven wrong the more people believe them. I just don’t get it. We are supposed to be the higher intelligence yet we are proving that is also a lie.
50
How could you possibly believe Newton? We have learned scientists who know that Newton could not even read a thermometer.
40
Like this?
https://www.redpowermagazine.com/forums/topic/127871-new-joke-thread-30/page/3/?tab=comments#comment-1390975
20
read if you can
https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2020/02/iran-virus-uh-oh.html
00
What is it with the political left that the weather, the climate are sacred political issues? In this case Labor spruiker Tony Bramston..
“It is beyond mad that some politicians still doubt whether climate change is real and that it demands a local, national and global policy response.
The world’s leading scientific agencies, including our own, have shown that the earth is warming and sea levels are rising. A hotter and drier planet, and more extreme weather events, threaten economic growth, health and safety, water and food security, biosecurity and the natural environment, and more.
There is no Australian government that does not accept that climate change presents a major economic, social and environmental challenge for this generation. There is no government that is not allocating significant funds and using regulatory frameworks to mitigate climate change. Every state and territory government supports the goal of zero net carbon emissions by 2050.
Yet our national politics remains defective in response to climate change. It is perhaps the single most significant public policy failure in decades and it has destroyed multiple prime ministers. The evidence for the existence of climate change and the case for decarbonising the economy in response could not be clearer. But we have no clear national framework, long-term goals nor detailed strategies to deal with it.”
This almost summarizes the insanity. Why is this a fundamental belief of the left of politics? As Bramston writes, “beyond mad”.
As he says, if all governments believe this, it must be true.
The greatest challenge of a generation, as savant Kevin Rudd announced 13 years ago.
The only problem is that to quote Tony Abbott, it is crap. To quote late Botanist David Bellamy, poppycock.
130
And “it has destroyed multiple Prime Ministers”? And I thought that was Julia Gillard and Malcolm Turnbull in acts of unforgiveable betrayal of popularly elected Prime Ministers. And their successors each hung in by a single vote, but facts don’t matter when you are spruiking socialism.
120
Dressed up in the clown’s suit of environmentalism.
70
The left has always wanted crush capitalism and replace with socialism. Climate change provides a rationale for doing so.
https://medium.com/extinction-rebellion/extinction-rebellion-isnt-about-the-climate-42a0a73d9d49
10
Would appreciate the average domestic electricity cost info for each state. Suspect my data is slightly out, but I know WA’s cost. No “special” rates, just the average cost.
30
Graeme here is my rates .
38.79 c/kWh
21.24 c/kWh 118.14 c/Day
This is for northeast Victoriastan using Origin .
20
WA – Synergy
Unit price (kWh) 26.2026 cents
Supply charge 93.9330 cents per day.
NSW – Origin
Unit price 30.536 c/kWh
Supply charge 151.25 c/Day
Hope that helps.
20
Thanks Sam. Using an average 25units/day, this makes WA cost 29.96c/kWh, and NSW 36.59c/kWh. Willing to change my “average” of 25 units/day if others think another figure is better.
20
No probs. You’ve factored in the supply charge for 25 u/d.
Doesn’t Victoria have a supply charge, Robert?
10
Oops. No. I see it now.
🙂
10
Thanks Robert. I note the two different charges – what would be your average daily cost, based on 25units/day?
I’m using 25 units/day as an “average” figure. I know that the official average is much lower, but I believe that 25 units/day is typical for a 3/4 Br household. Willing to be corrected on this figure.
00
Average is about the 24 per day , we are in the sticks so pretty much everything requires electricity.
Have a friend who uses 2 kw per day average and has just installed 5.5kw solar system on , yeah that’s crazy and all but doesn’t expect to be working too much longer so wanted to reduce his expenses .
Is now well in credit as you could imagine .
00
In Vic the rates vary by network area. The Victorian Default Offers for 2020 are:
Powercor western Vic $1.26/day, 26.4 cents/kWhr
United Energy east metro $0.92/day, 29.3 cents/kWhr
Ausnet eastern Vic $1.14/day, 30.7 cents/kWhr
Also Jemena and Citipower.
The best discount I have seen publicly is 6% off both prices. Others simply offer flat prices.
00
Yes should have mentioned there are a lot of retailers and various plans out there , but some aren’t available in all areas .
For us it was the choice of Red Energy or Origin going by price Origin won but only just .
00
Thanks for the extra figures Robber. Based on 25 units/day, the best Vic figure I come up with 26.45c/unit. That’s not bad.
00
I believe we need another Royal Commission.
We need to know why the findings of previous Royal Commissions have been ignored eg many for bushfires and disasters, Union Corruption, etc.
The only exception has been the banks RC (which has resulted in thousands of job losses and lost billions of superannuation value – Bingo – ain’t we smart?)
90
The answer to both is the same.
The greens and the socialist left.
30
read all:
25 Feb: Age: Cloud hangs over Yallourn as owners power on with ‘decarbonising’
by Noel Towell
The owner of the giant Yallourn mine and power station in Victoria’s east says it has had one of its “most trying” years on record after its profits slumped by 50 per cent, or nearly $300 million.
The dramatic collapse of Energy Australia’s earnings for 2019 was accompanied by rhetoric from the company about “decarbonising our power assets,” raising fears for the future of Yallourn which produces about 14 million tonnes of carbon pollution each year.
But an early closure of Yallourn, which generates about 20 per cent of Victoria’s energy, would be another seismic shock to Victoria’s energy supply, which is still absorbing the closure in 2017 of the Hazelwood generators, plunging the electricity market into chaos and throwing hundreds of people out of work…
The station is licensed by the Victorian government to operate until 2032 and owner EnergyAustralia says it will stay open until then but only if “government policy and market conditions allow”.
But publishing the disappointing financial results this week, Energy Australia’s managing director Catherine Tanna had little to say about the future of Yallourn or the company’s other coal-burning power operation, Point Piper in NSW…READ ALL
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/cloud-hangs-over-yallourn-as-owners-power-on-with-decarbonising-20200225-p5449z.html
50
They would be wise to give notice of closure now. That would create a dilemma for Dan and his Labor party. Imagine the backlash from the greens if he had to provide financial support to a coal generator to keep the lights on.
60
***mixed messages!
25 Feb: BBC: Environment Agency chief: ***Avoid building new homes on flood plains
Building new homes on flood plains in England should be resisted if at all possible, the head of the Environment Agency Sir James Bevan has said.
He said where there was no alternative, homes should be made more resilient, for example by using ground floors for garages so people stay safe upstairs.
He also argued there may be a need to shift some communities out of harm’s way when the risks become too great…
Asked whether vulnerable communities could be evacuated, Sir James told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme “almost all” residents can remain where they are and their flood defences improved.
However, he called for a “conversation” about their sustainability and protection in the long term.
“Most people would accept” that some homes should not have been built, he added, and insisted this was not about forcing people to move but about discussing realities…
Analysis by David Shukman, Science editor
…Like other senior figures in the agency, he wants to stimulate a national debate about how to prepare not just for the next floods but also for a future with a more hostile climate…
‘Weather bomb’
Sir James’ comments will be made in a speech at the World Water-Tech Innovation Summit in central London.
He will say: “First, we must continue to do what we have been doing for some years now: building and maintaining strong defences to reduce the risk of communities being flooded.
“But in the face of the climate emergency, we now need a second, parallel, track: making our communities more resilient to flooding so that when it does happen it poses much less risk to people, does much less damage, and life can get back to normal much quicker.
“The best way to defuse the weather bomb is better protection and stronger resilience. We need both.”…
***Sir James is set to warn that, with a growing population, the number of properties in the flood plain is likely to nearly double over the next 50 years…
Scientists warn that climate change is raising the risk of flooding because winter storms will bring more heavy rainfall in a warming world….
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51620992
30
In the Mississippi delta, entire towns have been abandoned because folks eventually realised they were built in the wrong place and were flood-prone.
10
they know nothing:
24 Feb: BBC: Australia fires were far worse than any prediction
By Victoria Gill
The Australian bushfires were more catastrophic than any simulation of our changing climate predicted.
This is the conclusion of researchers who described the devastation as a “fiery wake-up call for climate science”…
“This [was] worse than anything our models simulated,” climate scientist Dr Benjamin Sanderson told BBC News.
Dr Sanderson, who is part of the French government’s ‘Make our planet great again’ program, said climate science needed to “do a better job” to avoid being caught out in future by wildfires, or by other catastrophes fuelled by climate change.
From his office at the European centre for research and training in high performance computing (CERFACS) in Toulouse, he explained: “The faster [the planet] warms, the more likely we are to be taken by surprise.”…
Sanderson: “Rather than running one simulation that looks as close as possible to the real world, we need to start creating thousands of different versions of the future.
“Those thousands of versions should span the full space of how bad this could be.”…
“The warmer it gets, the more uncertain things are going to be,” said Dr Sanderson.
“And until we’re exploring all of the bases for our assumptions, we can’t give concrete advice to society about how to adapt.”…
Dr Sanderson, and his US-based colleague Dr Rosie Fisher, published their paper as part of a series of studies and commentaries in the journal Nature Climate Change (LINK)…
Another paper, published in this same issue, confirms that the extent of the Australia fires vastly exceeds previous wildfires (LINK) – both within Australia and elsewhere in the world.
Their direct link to climate change is still being investigated, but scientists have previously established that links between climate change and the severity and frequency of “fire weather” – a combination of higher temperatures, high winds and low humidity.
Professor Liz Bentley from the UK’s Royal Meteorological Society added that extreme weather events everywhere were a wake-up call to the reality of climate change.
“We know that, in the UK for example, we’re going to see more extreme flooding in the future,” she said.
“So it’s getting harder to see climate change as a problem that’s affecting distant glaciers and islands; it’s now on all our doorsteps.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51590080
40
She, besides being the cat’s mother, is another ignorant pillock.
The Somerset Levels demonstrate just how much of a pillock she is:
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/01/05/the-somerset-flood-action-plan-two-years-on/
Scroll down to the photos to see the difference between the 1960s and 2014.
No surprise that “she” works for the UK’s Met Bureau. I’m only surprised that Australia’s BoM hasn’t employed her here to give us all the benefit of her ignorance.
30
Another idiot professor. Largely, I find professors vacuous and suffering from serious mental problems which may be attributed to a lack of vitamin D.
20
great strategist:
25 Feb: Guardian: Labour can win in 2024 with my plan to tackle the climate emergency
by Rebecca Long-Bailey, Labour MP for Salford and Eccles and a candidate for the Labour party leadership
To win, Labour needs to make sure 2024 is a climate election…
Soon, all politics will be climate politics…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/24/labour-2024-climate-emergency-boris-johnson-rebecca-long-bailey
multiple links etc:
24 Feb: NatureClimateChange: In the line of fire
The bushfires burning in Australia have led to widespread local and global calls for increased efforts to mitigate climate change.
The unusual extent of the fires has led many to name Australia ‘ground zero’ for climate change, motivating domestic and international demands for Australia and other wealthy nations to strengthen their mitigation efforts.
In this issue, we feature Comments and Correspondence related to the Australian fires and their relationship to climate change — both in terms of the underlying causes, and in terms of adaptation and mitigation. Although efforts are still under way to establish a link between climate change and these fires1, they are unprecedented in terms of the area burned, which an analysis by Matthias Boer and colleagues (see their Correspondence)(LINK) indicates greatly exceeds previous fires both within Australia and globally. As King et al. write in a related Comment, this is likely to be due to the very dry conditions that Australia has experienced over the past 2 years, brought about by
the absence of a La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.
The fires come conspicuously in the wake of a year that saw increasing public engagement with climate science and policy, as well as heightened media coverage, as we noted in our first editorial of 2020…
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0720-5
10
Climate scientists are currently examining data from the disaster, which destroyed swathes of southeastern Australia, to determine to what extent they can be attributed to rising temperatures.
Gee I wonder what the outcome of their analysis will be…
40
The beer is too warm. Or maybe the soymilk.
20
***this will infuriate all those hard-working “climate experts” from Oxford and Cambridge!
24 Feb: BBC: Climate change: Schools failing us, say pupils
By Judith Burns
“It’s educated people who are causing the most damage to the planet,” says sixth-former Joe Brindle.
Joe, 17, says schools need to put the environment at the heart of education.
Ministers agree “it is vital that pupils are taught about climate change” but Joe says schools are failing to prepare them for a climate emergency.
He is a founder member of Teach the Future which next week takes its call for an environmental overhaul of education to Parliament.
“It’s people with degrees from ***Oxford and ***Cambridge who are becoming fossil-fuel chief executives and they are the ones who are causing the most destruction to our world,” says Joe…
On Wednesday, Joe, a pupil at Devizes School, and more than a dozen other under-18s who make up the core of Teach the Future, will take over Parliament’s Terrace Pavilion to host a crowdfunded reception for MPs.
The group, run jointly by the UK Student Climate Network, best known for the school climate strikes, and the National Union of Students’ climate charity offshoot, SOS-UK, is launching a draft English emergency education bill which embodies their key demands and which Joe believes “is going to be really big”…READ ON
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-51492942
mind you, there is SO MUCH to learn! the Deep State fears nothing more than the US exiting Paris:
25 Feb: Reuters: Climate change could pose ‘catastrophic’ security threat, experts warn
by Matthew Lavietes
Climate change could become a “catastrophic” threat to global security, as people lose their livelihoods, fall ill and battle over scarce water and food, a host of U.S. security, military and intelligence experts warned on Monday.
Pressures from global warming could intensify political tensions, unrest and conflict, fuel violent extremism and break down government security systems, the experts said in a report by the Center of Climate and Security, a nonpartisan policy institute…
“Even at scenarios of low warming, each region of the world will face severe risks to national and global security in the next three decades,” the report said…
The research released on Monday warned of displaced populations driven from their homes by rising heat, drought and dwindling water and food supplies.
Disease would spread, and border security and infrastructure would break down as resources grow more scarce, fueling extremism, crime and human trafficking, it said…
Panel members included former U.S. government security officials and climate security experts…
The administration of President Donald Trump has initiated efforts to pull the United States out of the Paris pact.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-security/climate-change-could-pose-catastrophic-security-threat-experts-warn-idUSKCN20I2O9
30
the ***nonpartisan Center for Climate & Security:
12 Sept 2019: Science Mag: Why a high-profile climate science opponent quit Trump’s White House
By Scott Waldman, E&E News
Happer’s departure was celebrated by Democratic lawmakers, environmental groups and climate policy think tanks.
“When your military, intelligence and science agencies are all warning about the security risks of climate change, you simply can’t have a climate denier in a senior position at the National Security Council,” said Francesco Femia, co-founder of the ***Center for Climate & Security in Washington, D.C., in a statement. “So this is a welcome development. However, heaping too much praise on this is like praising the arsonist for dumping a bucket of water on the house he just burned down. The real test is what — substantively — happens next.”
Happer, who recently turned 80, will return to Princeton University, where he is an emeritus physics professor…
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/why-high-profile-climate-science-opponent-quit-trump-s-white-house
24 Feb: The Center for Climate & Security: RELEASE: Future Climate Change Presents High-to-Catastrophic Security Threat, Warn U.S. National Security, Military and Intelligence Experts in New Assessment
The report (LINK) will be officially launched this afternoon at 3:30pm EST in a briefing at the Rayburn House Office Building (Gold Room 2168) featuring distinguished members of the expert panel…
https://climateandsecurity.org/2020/02/24/release-future-climate-change-presents-high-to-catastrophic-security-threat-warn-u-s-national-security-military-and-intelligence-experts-in-new-assessment/
20
this mob didn’t waste time:
15 Nov 2016: ScientificAmerican: Military Leaders Urge Trump to See Climate as a Security Threat
Dozens of military and defense experts advised the president-elect that global warming should transcend politics
by Erika Bolstad, Climatewire
It may well end up in the paper shredder, but a bipartisan group of defense experts and former military leaders sent Donald Trump’s transition team a briefing book urging the president-elect to consider climate change as a grave threat to national security.
The Center for Climate & Security in its briefing book argues that climate change presents a risk to U.S. national security and international security, and that the United States should advance a comprehensive policy for addressing the risk. The recommendations, released earlier this year, were developed by the Climate and Security Advisory Group, a voluntary, nonpartisan group of 43 U.S.-based senior military, national security, homeland security and intelligence experts, including the former commanders of the U.S. Pacific and Central commands…
Many military leaders say that considering climate change and renewable energy has made their branches more resilient fighting forces and bureaucracies, starting with reducing emissions and creating a nimble fighting culture that is less dependent on fossil fuels. By reducing their carbon footprint, they become a combatant in the war on rising global temperatures, military leaders say…
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/military-leaders-urge-trump-to-see-climate-as-a-security-threat/
20
behind paywall…poor thing:
25 Feb: UK Times: Prince Charles says eco-crusade is exhausting and demoralising
The Prince of Wales lamented his “exhausting and often demoralising” efforts to protect the environment as seeds from his estate were sent to the Arctic to preserve them in the event of a mass extinction…
70
He would be far better off sending them to the Antarctic. That at least does not reach +13C in summer. And Svalbad reaches 21C.
60
If only Prince Indian Elephant Ears would go to the Antarctic with his seeds – and stay there.
60
bad luck:
behind paywall:
24 Feb: UK Telegraph: Undersea cable fault meant Britain missed out on record wind power
Consumers set to bear the brunt of January’s infrastructure breakdown
By Ed Clowes
Millions of British households missed out on clean energy generated by strong winds in January because a crucial undersea cable stopped working.
Record levels of power created by wind farms in Scotland could not be piped to heavily populated parts of England due to faults with the Western HVDC Link, a network of underwater cables that runs down the UK west coast.
As a result, the farms were told to produce less energy to avoid overloading nearby areas. The National Grid must now pay them more than £30m in compensation – a bill that will ultimately be footed by consumers…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/24/fault-undersea-cable-meant-britain-missed-record-wind-power/?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter
60
So the consumer missed getting the electricity but still got the bill?
And as the wind farms get more money from not working, I can’t see them rushing to repair the undersea cable.
90
Crony capitalists know a good rort when they’re on to it.
60
Wonder if they overloaded the cable, much like Basslink?
30
what happened to sending a positive message?
25 Feb: Guardian Health & wellbeing: Ecological grief: I mourn the loss of nature – it saved me from addiction
I was struggling with my mental health when I started wandering daily on the marshes. The experience opened my eyes to the extraordinary healing power of the natural world
by Lucy Jones
(Losing Eden: Why Our Minds Need The Wild by Lucy Jones is published by Allen Lane on 27 February)
As I fell in love with the trees and the soil, I began to see how endangered much of nature had become, and how these opportunities to commune with other species were slipping through our fingers. Alongside our disconnection from nature is, of course, the fact that the natural world is rapidly vanishing; our time on this Earth is haunted by habitat destruction, species loss and climate breakdown. While revelling in the glory of the rest of nature, I also fell into a state of ecological grief, the name for the psychological response to the nature and climate emergency; a mourning for the communities, wildlife and landscapes that are disappearing and a fear of what is to come. Of course, people in many countries – including Britain’s flooded areas – are already suffering directly from the impact of the climate emergency. Others are experiencing anxiety, worry and dread about an anticipated future of ecological loss…
As Glenn Albrecht, the Australian academic who coined the term “solastalgia”, to describe the distress caused by environmental change, points out, what is disordered isn’t ecological grief, eco-anxiety or global dread but “the world that is causing you to feel that way”. It is a natural response to loss – and it is likely to become more common…
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/feb/25/ecological-grief-i-mourn-the-loss-of-nature-it-saved-me-from-addiction
re the writer: Lucy Jones is a writer and journalist based in Hampshire, England. She previously worked at NME and The Daily Telegraph. Her writing on culture, science and nature has been published in BBC Earth, BBC Wildlife, the Guardian, TIME and the New Statesman – Google Books
20
imagine if there really was global warming?
24 Feb: NYT: Has Australia Reached a Climate Tipping Point?
After a summer of devastating fires, we need to ask ourselves hard questions about how we live.
By Lisa Pryor
(Lisa Pryor, a medical doctor, is the author, most recently, of “A Small Book About Drugs” and a contributing opinion writer)
SYDNEY, Australia — Australia the untouchable bubble is no more.
Only a few months ago, I joked with friends who had just returned from life in the northern hemisphere that, with the state of the world at that moment, our distance from the rest of the world felt more like comfort than tyranny. Australia felt like a prosperous and benign island.
But as they say on the internet, life comes at you fast. We Australians found ourselves at the center of global events when our land erupted in flames. In recent months, fires have burned millions of acres, destroyed thousands of homes and killed at least 30 people. More than a billion animals perished.
Many of us had feared that our good luck would someday come to an end, but we never imagined that the end would be so sudden, so cinematic, so biblical. We have become a portent of what the world can expect if it does not act on climate change…
Then came the floods and the heaviest rainfall in 30 years…
And it struck me that this — a sudden and opposite problem after months of drought — illustrated the impossibility of simply “adapting” to climate change.
How do you adapt when the changes coming are not simply new patterns but the very loss of a predictable pattern? How do you adapt to chaos? How do you affordably prepare a home simultaneously for drought, wind, rain, smoke, dust, fire, blackouts, rising sea levels, falling trees, floods, hail and record-breaking temperatures?…
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/opinion/australia-fires-climate.html
30
Lisa Pryor should read the poetry of Dorethea Mackeller.
50
Dr Lisa Pryor lives in Sydney, NSW, Australia.
She quotes:
“How do you affordably prepare a home simultaneously for drought, wind, rain, smoke, dust, fire, blackouts, rising sea levels, falling trees, floods, hail and record-breaking temperatures?…”
end quote
Wow, If all those simultaneous events happened at the same time. It would be quite overwhelming.
No wonder our Doctor Pryor is worried.
I would like to let Dr Lisa Pryor know that since 1788, Sydney has seen drought, wind, rain, smoke, dust, fire, blackouts, rising sea levels, falling trees, floods, hail and record-breaking temperatures.
And yet Sydney still stands and functions as a city to this day.
Take a chill pill Doctor, attend to your patients’ health and please stop worrying, as everything is OK.
90
“Take a chill pill Doctor, attend to your patients’ health and please stop worrying, as everything is OK.”
Maybe the patients would be better to have a change of doctor?
50
Nobody mentions the Sydney Cab Drivers, in the list of the simultaneous things to be concerned about. They are like New York cabbies, driving on the wrong side of the road, without the banter.
40
Report from Los Alamos claims SARS-CoV-2 was initially more contagious than previously thought.
Via John Campbell’s channel (Uploaded 2h ago)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnE9O-vV-ws
Basically the R_0 (Basic reproduction number or spreading ratio) was previously thought 2.2, but now with more data from earlier in the timeline it looks like it was closer to 4.7 initially.
The R_0 is not inherent to the virus but is a description of how quickly it spreads in practice. Therefore it is dependent on proximity and interaction between people. The upshot of this research is that it highlights how much lower the rate of spread can be once people change their behaviour and the quarantine, hygiene, and other control measures are implemented. In this situation the “draconian” quarantine methods have brought R_0 from 4.7 down to 2.2 in China – a huge reduction.
10
Sorry Rereke, that was meant to be a top level comment, the comment box was at the bottom and everything, don’t know how it got attached to yours.
Still, while I’m here… how are ya?
Long time no see.
10
Draconian but not low enough.
Must get that r0 down to <1. Though every bit helps. Delay and reduce the peak.
10
Troy Bramston is getting bashed in the comments to his latest alarmist climate change article in the Oz. It is indeed heart-warming. Troy is an erudite writer and researcher. It is a pity that he has partaken heavily of the climate kool-aid.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/temperatures-rising-but-parties-take-an-emissions-policy-siesta/news-story/5996cb508dc955aca22657b6d58e4ab2
30
Good.
However, I can’t enjoy the bollocking because of the paywall.
Can you copy and paste a couple of examples please?
30
It seems amusing to me, that all of the world’s leading scientific agencies, actually manage to avoid naming themselves in print, or to make statements in the first person, for that matter.
Wise up guys. This is a hallmark of propaganda. Nobody gives evidence. They only refer to somebody else’s evidence in the second or third person.
I don’t know about you. But I find the concept of people stuffing around with the way I think, inside my head, to be personally offensive.
120
Dam!
https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/national/key-california-reservoir-to-be-drained-due-to-earthquake-risk/article_24654552-0272-5057-80bf-033b1d3f7099.html
30
Some facts for you Troy:
1. Co2 levels follow temperature – a very strong correlation – NOT the other way around
2. The basis scientists use is the end of the Little Ice Age (1850s) – so of course temps have risen
3. Temp rises are still within natural variation
4. Humans produce only 3% of Co2
5. The UN setup the IPCC and instructed them to only investigate human Co2, not Nature which produces 97%
6. Co2 appears to play a minor role in climate, many other factors at at play such as long term ocean oscillations, solar effects, volcanoes including underwater, the effect of clouds, gravitational & magnetic interactions of the solar system as a whole, and the list goes on
7. Water vapour is by far the largest greenhouse gas and contributes approx 60% of warming
8. Co2 is only 0.04% of the earths atmosphere
9. The earths climate is a non linear chaotic system and is far too complex to model – any such models are worthless
10. The IPCC avoids such scientific facts and instead deliver ‘models’ where a pre-determined outcome demanded by the UN is achieved
11. According to our chief scientist Alan Finkel, shutting down the Australian economy completely with have no effect on the climate.
Could go on all day, but a core problem is the long march of the left through the institutions. The left now wield enormous clout through the media, education, public departments including the BOM/CSIRO all the way to the UN. Are there any non-socialists at the UN? There don’t appear to be any at the ABC.
Until actual facts can be openly and seriously discussed about climate change without dissenting views being yelled at and dismissed, then otherwise sensible people including Troy Bramston will continue to be ill informed and deceived by biased, unbalanced and incorrect information.
180
This comment was a comment posted by Kathryn on the Oz article by Troy Bramston. The words aren’t mine, although I wish they were.
130
Thanks GD.
Got it.
40
From another commenter:
the goal of zero net emissions by 2050 ….
has the backing of 73 other countries……
Australia would be an international pariah if it failed to sign up to the goal.
Honestly Troy, this is propaganda, not science. Paris has similar backing but very few countries other than Australia are actually on target to meet their 2030 commitments, let alone anything by 2050.
Are these the one’s who are going to be regarding Australia as a Pariah if we call out their shallow virtue seeking for what it is?
90
Again, thank you.
40
Yes, the common motivational ideas are that
Other countries are going to be laughing at us
or
Other countries are going to be sneering at us and making snide remarks
as if the world operates like a children’s playground.
When politicians or commentators resort to such childish ideas to motivate people, they just insult us.
80
Or other countries can refuse to trade with OZ , or anyone else who incurs their displeasure.
Their loss, presumably.
30
An international boycott to force Australia to do the will of the United Nations would be the start of an attempt to intimidate smaller countries and Australia would be a natural target. Improverish, intimidate and control. This is the Imperialist United Nations, no longer a forum to prevent war but a world government in the making. So say all the 40,000 unelected bureaucrats, as with the EU who want their own international army, to fight Russia and the US.
40
Australia Refuses to Risk Mining Jobs, Economy in Pursuit of U.N. Climate Targets
https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/02/24/australia-refuses-to-risk-mining-jobs-economy-in-pursuit-of-u-n-climate-targets/
40
Many will enjoy this:
https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2020/02/25/deducing-geothermal/
42
For anyone interested, this is old but illuminating.
https://judithcurry.com/2011/08/16/postma-on-the-greenhouse-effect/
20
yeah it’s old ground that need not be covered again. Reminds me of all those dragon threads.
10
I’ve read your calculations at your web page
https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2019/12/04/the-case-of-two-different-fluxes/
You’ve made some very basic mistakes in heat transfer.
Let me explain.
You claim that for a concrete block at 75C on one end, 8 m long, 0.8 m2 cross sectional area, that the end condition is 50C, for a heat flux of 2 W/m2. Given all that, I agree with you. Fine.
You then claim that the 50C end of the block provides a heat flux of 556.58 W/m² using the Stefan Boltzman equation for black body radiation. This is the big mistake.
Your calculations represent the heat flux of a 50C body with emissivity of 0.9 radiating into 0 degrees K.
This is a mis application of the S-B equation for NET heat flux.
The real question is not the one you promote.
The real question is: What is the Black Body Cavity Absorber Temperature that Absorbs 2 W/m² FROM a Source at 50C.
That temperature is
( 273.13 + 50) -(2 / 0.9 / 5.670367 E-8)^(0.25) = 244 K = -29.12 C
You CAN NOT have more energy leaving the block than is flowing THROUGH the block and maintain equilibrium.
You CAN NOT transfer heat from a colder object to a hotter object.
You CAN NOT have ANY heat flux from a 50C source into a 50 C sink.
The Black Body is an absorption in your application is a cavity that absorbs the 2 W/m² AT 50C INTO a COLDER destination temperature.
The part you missed is that for the S-B equation it is NET flux INTO a Differential temperature.
Your calculation assumes that the flux into the cavity is solely a function of the “hot” source temperature and by omission, assumes the “cold” temperature to be 0 Kelvin when in fact it is not.
Therefore, all of this “cold side radiation” is nonsense.
You have confused the control volumes, definition of the S-B equation for Net Power, and missed the fact that you implicitly assume a 0 Kelvin cold temperature.
Rethink this. Glaring Error.
52
Lance,
Turn on your stove, put a frying pan on it. How much will the frying pan emit at the top, after a while …
30
A frying pan and a stove is not the question. Your model, your results, fail against Heat Transfer and Thermodynamics. That’s how it is.
The point is You have Mis Applied and Mis Understood the S-B equation for Net Power and have no idea what you are talking about.
41
Lance,
If A is in the x,y dimension,
L is in the z dimension.
k is in units W/(m*K), and also in the z dimension.
The m^2 in W/m^2 are not even for the same dimension.
Can you divide in the z-dimension by the z-dimension and get something equivalent to the x,y dimension?
No, you can’t.
Emission is determined solely by temperature and not the difference between temperatures of two locations multiplied by k. If that was the case then SB Law would be stated as such.
You don’t understand what conduction is. You only know radiative heat transfer and when you saw the same units: W/m^2, you thought you could play smart.
No Lance, you answer the frying pan question, or you look like a jerk that tries to teach while not being able to be taught.
24
The net power radiated is the difference between the power emitted and the power absorbed:
By YOUR definition, the Net Power Emitted is 2 w/m2.
The NET Power Absorbed is DEFINED by the SB equation for NET Power.
Pnet= e sigma A (T^4 – T0 ^4)
You assume that P = e sigma A T^4
It Isn’t. You assumed t0 = 0 and that the only relevant temperature was defined by Pnet.
T is the “hot” temp. T0 is the “cold” temp.
T0 “isn’t zero”.
So your assumption that the heat flux is simply a function of some Thot temp is void.
Thot is the “50C” end of the block. Tcold is the temp of the black body cavity absorber that is accepting the 2 w/m2 that You defined.
The black body cavity is at 244K for your system to be in equilibrium.
There is no “cold side radiation” except in your mind.
QED
11
“By YOUR definition, the Net Power Emitted is 2 w/m2.”
LOL. That’s not my definition.
The CONDUCTIVE HEAT FLUX is 2.5 W/m^2
That is not what is supposed to emerge at the other end.
You still don’t understand what the conductive heat flux IS.
You are engaging in ideological mathematics.
Do the frying pan experiment. What will emerge on top is nearly what you put in on the bottom. Yet CHF will go to nearly zero.
Also, the completely proper way to report CHF is with a NEGATIVE sign. Look at the conduction formula!
CHF is always <= 0
It's commonplace rhetoric to invert the negative when discussing it, but it's still negative!
CHF is negative and CSR is not. They can NEVER equate, except for an object at 0K.
10
SB is a spherical geometry. You can play all the sophistry you want, but integrating a spherical geometry of 4 Pi steradians any way you want ends up the exact same answer regardless of coordinates. Did you ever take calculus?
Can you explain how your analysis defines MORE power than Actually Flows by your own definition? Thought not.
Your BS is nothing but pure sophistry grounded in ignorance.
Enjoy the fantasy of being smarter than anyone else.
There are meds for that.
22
Lance,
Is your central argument that
Hot Side Radiation = Conductive Heat Flux = Cold Side Radiation
HSR = CHF = CSR ?
I.e, conservation of Heat Flux
Is that the correct interpretation of your claims?
YES or NO,
10
I have an induction stove so there.
30
That’s quite brilliant. 🙂
20
Totally energy free!
No CO2 emitted during the use of this instrument.
00
I’ve given you a green tick because it takes a lot of front to keep ignoring other people who keep telling you that the Stephan and Boltzman equation needs proper training and understanding to use in a practical situation.
Over and over I have said that you can’t just plug values into S_B equation.
Nor can you solve a problem, which you tried to do earlier, when there is an extra unknown besides the one you were solving for.
Of course it’s easy: you just pretend that the other one doesn’t exist and then accuse people of being sexist, or something.
Stop being so aggressive, listen.
KK
01
Keith,
Aside from textbooks, there are educational sites with formulas and calculators online. But I should listen to people complain to me, not them. None of these sites have the retarded suggestions I was given. Why not? They must all be useless and wrong.
11
“( 273.13 + 50) -(2 / 0.9 / 5.670367 E-8)^(0.25) = 244 K = -29.12 C”
My mind boggles at the stupidity of this.
He took 2W (Q) and pluged it into SB equation, when SB equation is for W/m^2, not W.
He has 50C on the edge, and this produces 557 W/m^2.
What the heck is he doing?
T – ((Q/e)/sigma)^4
A T minus a X^0.25, and X is not based on a T, but Q. Not even Q/A.
This is retarded.
11
Zoe, Abuse is no way to resolve science.
10
Thanks for the info, but don’t be a hypocrite. Tell the other one the same.
“Your BS is nothing but pure sophistry grounded in ignorance.
Enjoy the fantasy of being smarter than anyone else.
There are meds for that.”
Not abuse?
00
Okay. I’ll take the “heat” for screwing up the algebra.
I’ll also take the “heat” for not using your “online calculators”.
As well, I expect you to explain how you get > 500 W from a block at 50 C end temp with a defined heat flux of 2.5 w/m2 and a power of 2 W.
Using your online calculator, the black body cavity absorber that absorbs 2.5 w/m2 that you define, has a temp of 322.69 K or 49.54 C.
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/stefan.html
The max power possible before numerical breakdown is 445.2 W at a temp of 4.65 K. Not the 500+ W you claim.
You did not explain how 500+ W is delivered from a 2 W system that you defined. Other than some mind boggling BS.
Frying pans don’t prove your point. Neither do your sophistic claims.
Maybe Nobody was as smart as you in the last 100 yrs or so.
You are selling snake oil. Good luck with that.
00
2W is a DIFFERENTIAL of two locations with HIGH kinetic energy.
Gosh, you have a thick skull.
Do you know the difference between profit/loss and assets/liabilities?
00
“the black body cavity absorber that absorbs 2.5 w/m2 that you define”
What are you smoking?
2.5 W/m^2 is not EM radiation.
Plug 50C into SB formula.
Why would you plug CONDUCTIVE heat flux into SB formula???
Use the correct calculator
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/conductive-heat-transfer-d_428.html
Why are you trying to equate a DIFFERENTIAL with an ABSOLUTE?
Why are you ignoring my comment?:
If A is in the x,y dimension,
L is in the z dimension.
k is in units W/(m*K), and also in the z dimension.
The m^2 in W/m^2 are not even for the same dimension.
Can you divide in the z-dimension by the z-dimension and get something equivalent to the x,y dimension?
No, you can’t.
—
I take it you will continue to spin in circles and repeat yourself ad naseum.
10
I’ve configured an old laptop with the latest ubuntu so as to follow your fun exercises Zoe; thanks for that.
30
Couldn’t wait, eh? …
https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2020/02/26/instructions-for-windows-users/
Linux is better tho 🙂
10
Australian fires: Climate ‘truth bomb’?
https://judithcurry.com/2020/02/24/australian-fires-climate-truth-bomb/
20
Ric, there was a lot of focus on the increasing FDDI, something that the ecologists and university folks like to focus on, without realising that FDDI will increase if the fuel load increases. Virtually no discussion on fuel load in this blog however.
10
Blockbuster news from China about COVID-19
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/25/blockbuster-news-from-china-about-covid-19/
00
“Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of WHO, at the February 24 media briefing. This is important news – contradicting guesses by the doomsters.”
But go read Jo’s earlier thread on this bod
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/stinks-slow-wmo-let-coronavirus-run-but-ethiopian-chief-was-part-of-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy/
10
“Delingpole: This British Brand set the Standard For How to Respond to a Twitter Cancel Mob”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/02/25/delingpole-how-a-british-brand-stood-up-to-cancel-culture/
00
Take heed IMO
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/23/w-o-o-d-23-february-2020/#comment-125629
00
“New Video : Permanent Drought Update”
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/02/new-video-permanent-drought-update/
00
PM Morrison stated not long ago he accepts climate change is driving longer, hotter and drier summer seasons and the government’s emissions targets need to “evolve”. So what’s happened this summer? We are experiencing lots of rains in many places, dams are becoming full again, and now having cold weather that looks like shortening this summer. He has swallowed the CAGW nonsense hook, line and sinker. Time for a new leader to replace Turnbull 2.0?
Meanwhile over the other side their 0% emissions by 2050 policy is being attacked by some in the ALP. How about those who disagree with the governments and opposition stances on climate change get together to scuttle their respective leader’s plans for the sake of the nation and national security? This is not a joke. Otherwise, we are going over the cliff driven by the two leaders of the major parties. We are being sold out by both major parties. Time for a real kick on the backside for both of them. It’s now up to the voters to wake up and act accordingly. Otherwise, they better get prepared for a humongous kick on their backsides.
30
“Coronavirus, the economy and the American election, the story thus far …”
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/02/25/the-coronavirus-story-and-the-economy-thus-far/
10
Hanging out on a song and a prayer.
“The fires of this last summer will seem like a very, very mild experience compared to what a 3C [warmer] world will look like.” Malcolm Turnbull
30
Turnbull pretends high-end fire weather isn’t triggered from a mobile heat-wave driven by pressure systems pushing hot interior surface-layer air. Simplistic lies will suffice. Indeed one of the worst fire days this summer had a nearly 400 km/h jetstream above it. A near record heat day, but followed by an actual record cold day.
30
Exactly, the north westerlies caused by the blocking high in the Tasman attracts arsonists. I’m assuming this is not unprecedented and we can source historical examples to prove that its natural.
Too hot, too cold must be down to jet stream variability and a clear global cooling signal.
10
Troy Bramston accusing Bolt of telling falsehoods re Alan Finkel:
TWEET: Troy Bramston, Senior Writer/Columnist @australian Contributor @SkyNewsAust Interviewed 10 PMs. Bestselling/Award-Winning Author.
Thanks for sharing. I’m not surprised. Falsehoods indeed.
reply to:
Sally Davis, Communications consultant/careers advisor/writer/author. Passionate supporter of local government. Independent councillor with the City of ***Stonnington (Victoria).
@TroyBramston – @MRobertsQLD has misquoted what Dr Finkel actually said. Just as Andrew Bolt did, so Dr Finkel wrote this correction: LINK … Yes, Roberts ‘trades in fear and falsehoods.’ Like so many others…
24 Feb 2020
reply:
Mark Jardine –
Check it, Troy
Finkel was NOT misquoted
He said this clearly and it is on tape
He had to send out a ‘clarification’ the next day to say that he still believes Oz should ‘do something’
But he admitted again that this would make no change to the world’s climate
No falsehoods
25 Feb 2020
https://twitter.com/TroyBramston/status/1232184459752964097
15m30s to 31m10s: also note Arthur Sinodinos’s “contribution”. Sinodinos replaced Joe Hockey as ambassador to the United States on 7 February 2020.
Youtube: 33m14s: 12 Jun 2017: SENATE ESTIMATES – Accepting satellite data is equivalent to having your brain fall out!
posted by Malcolm Roberts
Chief Scientist Alan Finkel thinks that using satellite temperature data is equivalent to opening your mind so much your brain falls out.
And this is our Chief Scientists!
(Senator IAN MACDONALD: You are entering into an argument which I am not having. I did not put those propositions to you. I simply asked a question: if we reduce the world’s carbon emissions by 1.3 per cent, what impact would that have on the changing climate of the world?
Dr Finkel : Virtually nothing.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr3vX5J2JxA&feature=youtu.be
70
Bramston was responding to Sally Davis, Councillor, Stonnington, Victoria:
***Updated 18 Feb: City of Stonnington declares a climate emergency
City of Stonnington Mayor, Cr Steve Stefanopoulos, said the recent extreme weather conditions have highlighted the urgent need for all levels of government to take action.
“We are clearly in a state of climate emergency. This summer we’ve seen devastation across the country through bushfires, floods and unprecedented weather events.
“2019 was the hottest and driest year recorded in Australia, with 2010-2019 the hottest decade recorded world-wide.
“At a local level we’ve seen climate-driven extreme weather events that have had a significant impact on our environment, the local economy and human health such as major storms, poor air quality and contaminated rain…READ ON
https://www.stonnington.vic.gov.au/Council/Media-Centre/Media-Releases/City-of-Stonnington-declares-a-climate-emergency
btw funny how AAP totally ignored Finkel’s “virtually nothing” answer:
1 Jun 2017: New Daily: AAP: It’s Liberal versus Liberal as Trump and climate change pit believers against sceptics
Industry Minister Arthur Sinodinos was visibly frustrated during Thursday’s hearing in Canberra as former Howard government minister Ian Macdonald grilled the chief scientist over why Australia was sticking with the Paris climate pact.
He lamented Australia’s rising energy costs and asked why a nation contributing around one per cent of the world’s carbon emissions should take action.
His questions amid the growing expectation President Donald Trump will withdraw the US from the agreement on Friday (AEST)…
Senator Sinodinos hit back, suggesting the veteran Liberal was living in the past.
Australia’s high energy costs were partly caused by uncertainty around energy policy, he said, insisting the Paris agreement would help solve the problem…
The terse exchange had to be broken up by the committee chair, Senator Jane Hume, a fellow Liberal…
The verbal fracas cames as another Liberal MP, Craig Kelly, who chairs federal parliament’s environment committee, wrote on Facebook of having the “champagne on ice” for Mr Trump’s expected announcement…
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2017/06/01/fed-govt-tensions-paris-agreement/
as for the Senate chair, who seems unsympathetic to Malcolm Roberts:
Senator Jane Hume, the Chair: Liberal member of the Australian Senate representing Victoria. In May 2019, Hume was appointed Assistant Minister for Superannuation, Financial Services and Financial Technology in the Second Morrison Ministry…After graduating Hume held various senior positions in the financial services industry, working for the National Australia Bank, Rothschild Australia, Deutsche Bank and, immediately prior to her election, as a senior policy adviser at Australian Super – Wikipedia
40
apart from AAP coverage of Finkel’s appearance before the Senate (link is in comment which is in moderation), I can find no other MSM coverage at the time, other than the following.
full ABC article:
3 Jun 2017: ABC: Chief Scientist Alan Finkel responds to climate sceptic Senator Malcolm Roberts
Senator Roberts pressed the Chief Scientist about the need to be open-minded in science. “Not so open minded that your brain leaks out,” Dr Finkel responded.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-03/chief-scientist-alan-finkel-responds-to-climate/8585568
omits mentioning “virtually nothing” exchange, goes with ABC’s choice of exchange:
8 Jun 2017: SMH: Alan Finkel: the man who could bring peace to Australia’s climate wars
The chief scientist has been a neuroscientist, engineer and a one-man start-up machine – now he’s turned his hand to politics.
By Stephanie Peatling
One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts was waiting but Alan Finkel was ready…
Did Dr Finkel believe it was important for a scientist to keep an open mind, Senator Roberts wanted to know.
Dr Finkel spotted the trap and said he was happy to own up to a “healthy degree of scepticism”.
“But healthy is an important word there,” Dr Finkel told the senator in a committee hearing last week.
“You have to have an open mind, but not so open that your brain leaks out.”…
That no-nonsense, plain-speaking approach – delivered with extreme politeness and the hint of a twinkle in the eye – has taken Dr Finkel from his childhood consideration of medicine to academia, Silicon Valley, founding a science magazine, developing a secondary school science program, and, now, the Turnbull government’s principal scientific adviser.
When the newly minted Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced Dr Finkel’s appointment, he could barely contain his enthusiasm. Mr Turnbull was so excited he hijacked the press conference to ask Dr Finkel his own questions…
Dr Finkel’s predecessor, Ian Chubb, clashed with Mr Abbott’s business adviser, Maurice Newman, who described climate change as a “scientific delusion”…
In his final speech as chief scientist, Ian Chubb warned scientists to be brave: “We know there are those who want only to be told what they want to hear. When they aren’t, they simply denigrate and disparage and dream up conspiracies. I can only say to scientists: don’t flinch. Do your work; do it according to the trusted methods of ethical science and talk regularly to the public … their support, and the weight and quality of evidence, must always trump make-believe.”
They were words Dr Finkel clearly took to heart.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/alan-finkel-the-man-who-could-bring-peace-to-australias-climate-wars-20170608-gwn0cb.html
60
Finkel should update the science on where his predecessor Penny Sackett went wrong … or how we really “saved the world” …
We’ve got 5 years to save world says Australia’s chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/archive/news/weve-got-5-years-to-save-world-says-australias-chief-scientist-professor-penny-sackett/news-story/614a7441983b090314f05f7f705a1d5a
40
Sort of like a reverse auction really .
Ten ten years can I have a ten , five in the back row five five can I have a four .
10
Save the money.
Abolish the position of Chief Scientist.
It’s a green left sinecure.
First we had Chubb who didn’t know what a cyclone was called in the northern hemisphere.
Then Sackett who couldn’t align herself to the green left anti-science quickly enough.
Now we’ve got Finkel, who falsely claims to be a sceptic but will not present the science that shows man-made CO2 is not the predominant driver of the mere 0.78 centigrade degrees the IPCC tells us the planet has experienced over the 162 years from 1850 to 2012.
10
What is it with our pathetic pollies and mad media that they have all jumped on the bandwagon of “net zero emissions by 2050”?
No pathway, no costings, no benefits.
Ah, but it’s a climate emergency (wasn’t the world going to end by 2030?).
Hopefully sanity will prevail and some reasonable discussions will emerge.
Here’s a start: Cost Of ‘Net Zero’ Will Be Astronomical, New Reports Warn
But on the other hand: Essential poll: a majority of Coalition voters support a net zero emissions target for 2050
Did anyone tell them that means unreliable electricity, no more flying, no more diesel trucks delivering food, no more imports or exports using fossil-powered ships, no more mining. Yet we are supposed to believe this brave new world will deliver more jobs, more wealth, new manufacturing.
If it will be Utopia, why the need to mandate the target? Surely the markets will deliver.
If 100% renewable electricity is cheaper, let the market go there.
If electric cars are cheaper, let it happen.
If there is an economic alternative to petroleum fuels for farming and manufacturing and transport, let it happen.
But for some reason, I don’t trust our pollies or the media.
60
“Essential poll: a majority of Coalition voters support a net zero emissions target for 2050”
And who wrote the question?
Say. “if you could prevent any disastrous Climate Change and there was no cost in doing so because electricity was cheaper and clean energy , would you consider a net zero emissions target for 2050?”
Yes, Minister https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTAstuff.
30
First the drill, through the generosity of Bill and Melinda…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174
We all need to pull together, states and corporations, nations with nations, war footing, Marshall-type plan, limited internet shutdowns to control false information, flood the information zone etc etc. Because, after all, if you can have one pandemic, you can have another. And another.
And that’s just the drill.
60
This from Corey’s Digs
‘Gates and UN Control it All! Billions in Taxpayer Dollars’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsCCz3MBjK4&feature=emb_logo
00
WHO some time ago issued pandemic bonds that are soon due to expire. Interesting story…
Half-Billion $ Pandemic Derivatives
20
Correction; the World Bank issued the bonds but WHO stands to benefit from them if there is a pandemic.
30
I believe they now call this sort of scheme a “product”.
And with trillions of dollars/euros/krone etc floating around in giant funds looking for a good home “in this world of negative interest rates” who wouldn’t be ready to punt against an outbreak of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever for a juicy 11%?
It’s not like it’s your own money. In fact, it’s not like money is actually money until some dope has to pay it back.
40
20 Feb: Aljazeera: Virus fallout: World Bank ‘pandemic bonds’ plummet in value
The bank issued the bonds in 2017 to help the poorest countries deal with health emergencies like the coronavirus.
With the coronavirus outbreak having infected more than 74,000 people and claimed more than 2,000 lives, prices for the IBRD pandemic bond with the highest investment risk – the Class B notes – have come under increasing pressure.
Offer prices quoted by one broker have slipped as low as 45 cents on the dollar, while another broker is quoting 62.5 cents, market sources told Reuters news agency…
“The money for these bonds could have been better spent in providing the WHO with funds or help[ing] strengthen healthcare provisions in poor countries at risk,” said Bodo Ellmers, director of sustainable development finance at Global Policy Forum, an independent policy watchdog.
“It was an ideology-driven idea to get the private sector involved in humanitarian and emergency finance – and I think we have to say this has failed.”
The World Bank declined to comment.
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/virus-fallout-world-bank-pandemic-bonds-plummet-200219184800262.html
30
Money could have been better spent? Of course. So could the estimated $225+ billion we are supposedly going to spend on building and supporting those crap new subs, not to mention the billions upon billions we have already spent and will continue to spend thanks to both the LNP and the ALP. Don’t worry it’s not really our money. It’s our future generations’ money. Stupid is as stupid does.
20
They weren’t designed for speculative purposes. They were designed to help developing nations in case of a serious outbreak. Those who bought the bonds did so for a good return on their “investment” – much higher than normal returns for typical government issues bonds. However, like any so called investment they can turn sour. In the case of these bonds their values have come down a lot so the buyers are not happy. On the other hand if the corona virus goes away then their values will go up again, if they haven’t expired by then.
10
OMG,
this is evoking memories of the 1987 and 2008 “recessions” the derivatives and Sachs of Gold.
I lost too much in both but acquaintances lost decades of savings.
That wealth didn’t just vanish, it went to very specific places.
I wonder if there’s any connection with the Great Big Barrier Reef Foundation and the “lost” 7.5 tonnes of Gold?
KK
20
The curse of rising electricity prices, helping to destroy Australia’s competitiveness.
Per ABS statistics, from June 2007 to Dec 2019, the price index for consumer electricity has risen by 133.5%, while the CPI has risen by just 32.5%. Please explain, after all there is so much more cheap solar and wind in the mix.
90
And the blame rests on both Turnbull and Morrison as they were/are responsible for the way Australia is tackling climate change.
20
We need that question to be put very forcefully.
Politicians are hiding something which both sides are participating in.
KK
10
what a coincidence.
Wikipedia: Rod Rosenstein: He has one sister, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
with Pres Trump on his way home from India, Nancy decides to speak…and speak…and speak:
25 Feb: WSJ: CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S.
Official says authorities are preparing for a potential pandemic; Trump administration’s response is challenged in Congress
By Brianna Abbott
Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency expects a sustained expansion and called for businesses, schools and communities to brace themselves for potential outbreaks…
25 Feb: WashingtonExaminer: Severe ‘disruption’: CDC vaccine expert warned her family to prepare for US coronavirus outbreak
by Cassidy Morrison
It’s not a matter of if the novel coronavirus will spread throughout the United States, but when, said Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine expert Nancy Messonnier.
“Disruption to everyday life might be severe,” Messonnier, who is the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Tuesday.
Messonnier said she told her children over breakfast that they will need to begin preparing for an escalated outbreak. Parents and caregivers, she said, should ask officials at their children’s schools about plans for school dismissals, closures, and teleschool in case the virus spreads in their school districts.
“I contacted my local school superintendent this morning with exactly those questions,” Messonnier said. “All of these questions can help you be better prepared for what might happen.”…
25 Feb: NBC: CDC Outlines What Closing Schools, Businesses Would Look Like in Pandemic
“We are asking the American public to work with us to prepare for the expectation that this is going to be bad,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases
Schools should consider dividing students into smaller groups or close and use “internet-based teleschooling,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.
“For adults, businesses can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options,” Messonnier said.
She said local communities and cities may need to “modify, postpone or cancel mass gatherings.” Hospitals may need to triage patients differently, add more telehealth services and delay elective surgery, she said.
“Now is the time for businesses, hospitals, communities, schools and everyday people to begin preparing,” she said…
25 Feb: WashingtonTimes: Schumer, Trump spar over ‘incompetence’ in coronavirus funding fight
by Alex Swoyer
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer took aim at the Trump administration over its handling of the coronavirus Tuesday, saying the president is trying to act too late and showing incompetence on health matters…
The comment comes after the president requested more than $2 billion on Monday to help battle the virus…
The president, meanwhile, blasted the Senate Democratic leader as using the issue for a publicity stunt.
“Cryin’ Chuck Schumer is complaining, for publicity purposes only, that I should be asking for more money than $2.5 Billion to prepare for Coronavirus. If I asked for more he would say it is too much. He didn’t like my early travel closings. I was right. He is incompetent!” Mr. Trump tweeted…
Mr. Schumer said the president should restore cuts to the Center for Disease Control budget and appoint a nonpartisan global health expert as the point person instead of a political appointee…
Democrats have panned Mr. Trump’s request for coronavirus funding, saying it was “too little, too late.”…
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/25/schumer-trump-spar-over-incompetence-coronavirus-f/
plenty have long said the plan is to tank the stock market to stop Trump being re-elected. we’ll see where this goes.
40
21 Feb: BeckersHospital: Flu has sickened 29 million: 5 things to know
by Mackenzie Bean
The CDC estimates flu has caused 29 million illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths this season, according to the agency’s most recent FluView report (LINK)…
4. The CDC estimates that this season’s flu shot is about 45 percent effective overall and 55 percent effective among children…
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/flu-has-sickened-29-million-5-things-to-know.html
CDC: Disease Burden of Influenza
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010…
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
20
Are the Democrats planning to put Trump into quarantine on his return from India?
20
🙂 🙂
00
If any poli read these numbers would it make any difference??? Yeah…nah. I doubt it would make any difference to most of my friends!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/#75cca1d035f7
20
TWEET: The Recount
Is “Pete Obama voice” a thing?
VIDEO: 23sec
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1232093748785549312
25 Feb: PJ Media: Stunner: Watch Side-by-Side Video of Re-Pete Buttigieg and Obama Giving the Same Speech.
By Victoria Taft
Pete Buttigieg is Barack Obama’s Mini Me, or, as one Twitter user put it, “Fauxbama.”
Buttigieg’s speech cadence, his shirt sleeves and even the knot of his tie are the same as President Obama’s.
And now a political Twitter account called “The Recount” has found that former Mayor Buttigieg’s words are exactly the same as Obama’s.
For years Barack Obama reused and recycled Deval Patrick’s old “no red America, no blue America, just the United States of America” speech written by their mutual political spirit animal David Axelrod. Obama, ahem, borrowed Elizabeth Warren’s “you didn’t build that” trope to denigrate initiatives by business owners to support the idea that government help was really responsible for your success.
But now the former president knows what it’s like when someone plagiarizes him.
Watch this video and marvel at the chutzpah of Buttigieg. It’s not as funny “bad lip reading” but it is amazing to behold…
Back in the 1988 presidential election, Joe Biden not only plagiarized UK Labor Leader Neil Kinnock’s speech, but his life story. He was shamed out of the race. Mykell Pledger said Buttigieg should get out…
Even Meghan McCain scolded Buttigieg, “Oh come on! I know Pete thinks he’s the next Obama but this is ridiculous…
People don’t like cheating and stealing. “Plagiarizing Pete” is beginning to trend on Twitter. But one woman suggested Mayor Pete be renamed “Re-Pete.”
https://pjmedia.com/trending/stunner-watch-side-by-side-video-of-re-pete-buttigieg-and-obama-giving-the-same-speech/
meanwhile:
25 Feb: Newsweek: Joe Biden Claims to Have Worked on 2016 Paris Climate Deal with Chinese Leader who Died in 1997
By David Brennan
“One of the things I’m proudest of is getting passed, getting moved, getting in control of the Paris Climate Accord,” Biden told the crowd. “I’m the guy who came back after meeting with Deng Xiaoping and making the case that I believe China will join if we put pressure on them. We got almost 200 nations to join.”
Deng led China from 1978 until his retirement in 1992.
Current Chinese President Xi Jinping took power in 2013 and has overseen China’s involvement in the Paris deal, which was signed in 2016.
It is unclear whether Biden mixed up the two leaders’ names or was referring to someone else. Newsweek has contacted his campaign for comment.
Biden has long been a proponent of the Paris agreement, and has criticized Trump for stepping away from the deal. Last year, Biden called Trump’s decision “reckless,” said it shows he does not understand “what we’re up against” and shows he is “incapable of real leadership.”
Biden has said he will re-enter the Paris accord if elected president, alongside pushing for net-zero emissions by 2050 and banning new oil and gas permits on public lands and waters…
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-claims-worked-2016-paris-climate-deal-chinese-leader-deng-xiaoping-died-1997-1488915
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24 Feb: CTV: Alberta appeals court rules federal carbon tax unconstitutional; Kenney calls it ‘a great victory’
by Jeremy Thompson
EDMONTON –In a 4 to 1 decision, the Alberta Court of Appeal became the first to declare the federal carbon tax unconstitutional.
The main reasoning behind the decision is that the carbon tax is an overstep by the federal government.
In the 269-page decision, Justices Catherine Fraser, Jack Watson and Elizabeth Hughes said, in part: “The division of powers remains key to our federal state. It is part of the fabric of Canada itself. The federal and provincial governments are co-equals, each level of government being supreme within its sphere. The federal government is not the parent; and the provincial governments are not its children.”
They go on to call the act “a constitutional Trojan horse,” as it would set a precedent, allowing the federal government to impose almost any law it wished on Canadians.
Premier Jason Kenney said the carbon tax is now illegal and called the decision “a great victory for Alberta.”
“We disagree with Ottawa that a one-size-fits-all consumer tax that punishes families for heating their homes or driving to work is the best way to reduce emissions. We categorically reject that,” Kenney said. ***”We agree with the need to reduce emissions across our economy and our energy sector, but we must be allowed to do it our own way. We will not tolerate Ottawa deciding the future of Alberta’s economy.”…READ ON
https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/mobile/alberta-appeals-court-rules-federal-carbon-tax-unconstitutional-kenney-calls-it-a-great-victory-1.4825583
***Kenney agrees etc? what a pity.
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An important victory in the courts.
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Major Breakthrough
Chloroquine found to be effective against Coronavirus induced viral pneumonia – https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550
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That is an abstract only.
And the original source article only has that abstract !
Is this ‘real’ science ?
I have my doubts.
Though it would be great if Chloroquine actually worked !
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A former prime minister of Iceland, David Gunnlaugsson, is getting fed up with climate alarmism about glaciers disappearing
Iceland’s melting glaciers are nothing to panic about
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25 Feb: ConservativeTreehouse: Odd Coincidence – Rogue CDC Official Pushing Coronavirus Panic Button is Rod Rosenstein’s Sister…
by sundance
Earlier today Dr. Nancy Messonnier, an official in the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), held a conference call with media and pushed a panic narrative around the Coronvirus that ran counter to the Trump administration…
The alarming message from Dr. Messonnier was quickly picked up by most major news organizations and pushed into all reporting on the issue. The tone of the alarm is also counter to the message of the Trump administration and HHS Secretary Alex Azar, as outlined in a press conference with leadership from U.S. Health and Human Services…
As you can see, it is the statements by Dr. Messonnier and not HHS Secretary Alex Azar that are driving the media narrative…
To give a perspective on the way Dr. Messonnier’s message is being expanded, just watch the first 30 seconds of this CNBC interview with Larry Kudlow VIDEO 17m58s…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/25/odd-coincidence-rogue-cdc-official-pushing-coronavirus-panic-button-is-rod-rosensteins-sister/
24 Feb: TheAtlantic: You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
by James Hamblin
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”…
Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care…
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
You might not want to rely on Trump for information about the risk of coronavirus
Washington Post – 6h ago
By Philip Bump
People with the illness, he said, are getting better.
That’s broadly true at the moment…
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25 Feb: CNN: Under Trump, America is less prepared for a coronavirus outbreak
Opinion by ***Chelsea Clinton and Devi Sridhar
Editor’s Note: Chelsea Clinton is the Vice Chair of the Clinton Foundation and teaches at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia. She completed her D.Phil in international relations at Oxford University, examining the first decade of the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria. Devi Sridhar is a professor at the University of Edinburgh’s Medical School and holds the Chair in Global Public Health. Previously, she was associate professor in global health politics at Oxford University. They are the co-authors of “Governing Global Health: Who Runs the World and Why?” The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the authors.
The Trump administration is chronically inept at, and seemingly uninterested in, any type of long-term planning, given the numerous positions in government that remain vacant as well as the constant rotation of key cabinet positions and the ad hoc decisions made on the basis of a conversation or Fox News clip.
That posture, colliding with an anti-science and anti-expert bias, has corroded our epidemic preparedness. Columbia University has even tracked more than 400 cases of the Trump administration’s efforts to restrict or dismiss scientific research, education or discussion, or the publication or use of scientific information since 2016…
The next election provides an opportunity to safeguard the health of people both in the US and around the world. We hope the Democratic candidates will outline what they would do to respond to the current coronavirus crisis and how they would prevent future epidemics through investments in research, expertise and infrastructure.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/24/opinions/trump-us-coronavirus-prepared-clinton-sridhar/index.html
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Tony Heller’s latest video on the anthropogenic global warming lie. Australia is today’s topic.
https://youtu.be/vT2zVQm_f1Q
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If the lie of anthropogenic global warming is ever exposed to the extent that all global warming related policies are dropped, I will never, ever forgive any warmist believers.
The truth is out there that there is no catastrophic warming, if any at all. One can only be a warmist believer due to either malice or extreme ignorance and both are inexcusable.
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If a pandemic is called by the WHO, is Australia prepared to do what it will take? Could we isolate a city like Sydney? do we have enough materials, food, trained personnel?
should we be stockpiling, training and educating now?
I know that Jo takes this risk very seriously, but it seems that again, our leaders are ambling along, and this is potentially the spanish flu
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Good question. I really don’t know. I can’t fault the isolation of the Diamond Princess and Wuhan returnees, but can’t fathom why they won’t close borders with Iran and perhaps South Korea and Italy. Airport screening is simply 50:50 luck.
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I hope that we don’t have to do what China and the rest have done, I don’t think we have the infrastructure to feed and and supply even a small city, if it was forced into lockdown. Best hopes that it does not come to that
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100% agree.
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Qld Health today released an updated practitioner’s guide saying that clinicians should test any patients with a “clinically compatible illness” who have recently visited:
Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Italy, or Iran.
But you can be infected and shedding virus to infect others while asymptomatic for 10 or more days before any illness becomes apparent. So being apparently free of illness is “clinically compatible” with COVID-19.
Arrivals at Terminal International Brisbane Airport (BNE) – 26 FEBRUARY 2020.
Hong Kong (HKG) 23:20
Denpasar (DPS) 22:05
Tokyo (NRT) 05:40
Singapore (SIN) 16:55
Seoul (ICN) 06:15
Bangkok (BKK) 12:05
And on Friday morning at 6:40 is a Qantas flight from Rome via Dubai.
Then at 8:30am arrives the last leg of a two-stop journey from Tehran via Doha and Sydney, code-shared by those lexically natural partners Qatar Airways and Qantas.
Looks like I just filled up my infection flight bingo card. Now what do I win, other than 3 months of camping in the outback until the whole thing blows over?
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The authorities don’t want to start a panic, but behind the scenes its under control, strategic planning in case of any eventuality.
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25 Feb: SanFranciscoChronicle: Local emergency declared in San Francisco amid coronavirus concerns
By Amanda Bartlett
Not long after CDC officials urged Americans to prepare for coronavirus outbreaks that will almost certainly begin to spread nationwide, Mayor London Breed declared a state of emergency for the city of San Francisco…
While there are currently no cases of coronavirus in the city, the recent declaration will allow the city to secure funding, mobilize additional city resources and expedite the process of emergency planning.
“Given the high volume of travel between S.F. and mainland China, it is likely we will see one or more cases eventually. If a San Francisco case is confirmed, the Health Department will make an announcement,” said Breed…
Effective immediately, the declaration will last seven days, after which it will be voted on by the San Francisco Board of Supervisors on March 3.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Mayor-London-Breed-declares-state-of-emergency-15083999.php#photo-19088356
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Well… note what happened in China.
Tourism collapsed. Totally expected.
So…what you would then have across the country is a LOT of 10 storey plus isolation units wouldn’t you ! No need to build them or tax existing hospitals. Some “redistribution” of any guests may be needed,some financial compensation to the owners or maybe even commandeering due to a national emergency.
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first 15m: Coronavirus, WHO. Jeff Stier, Consumer Choice Center, Sr. Fellow (and policy advisor to The Heartland Institute):
Youtube: 30m56s: 25 Feb: Fox News: Tucker Carlson Tonight 2/25/20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJcHn0aqGGI
Consumer Choice Center Team: Jeff Stier
https://consumerchoicecenter.org/team/jeff-stier/
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open access:
25 Feb: Australian: ‘Secretive’ GetUp angers volunteers
By Brad Norington, ASSOCIATE EDITOR
GetUp faces rising dissent in its ranks from supporters who claim the left-wing campaign group’s leadership is “secretive” about how it spends millions of dollars raised from public donations, and no real power is allowed to so-called “members” in running the organisation.
Longtime GetUp volunteers who have worked in senior campaign roles said the group’s senior executives disliked criticism, and questions about operations were often rebuffed.
“GetUp is terribly secretive,” a former volunteer said. “They seem to take the view that new people are coming in all the time, so it doesn’t matter if they lose others.”…
The Australian has obtained internal correspondence between GetUp’s economic fairness campaigns director, Ed Miller, and several disillusioned supporters who claim the group “lacks transparency” and has not addressed “specific concerns about where and how funds are spent”.
Other disillusioned GetUp activists gave the example of $250,000 allegedly raised in donations as part of GetUp’s ***“protect the ABC” campaign, yet they had no evidence the money was used for campaign billboards or ads…
The Australian reported on Monday that GetUp spent more than 70 per cent of the $12.4m in public donations it raised last year on staff salaries, administration costs and travel…
GetUp, however, says 89 per cent or $12.4m of total expenditure was “related” to campaigns, including the $7.2m “wages for the staff”. It says its expenditure should not be compared with charities delivering social services…READ ALL
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/secretive-getup-angers-volunteers/news-story/d295e57e12e8975ba5b299823685c19f
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An opening for Australia – or its fate if kowtowed to
“Mining Company Withdraws From $20B Oil Sands Project — Citing Trudeau’s Environmental Policies”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/25/mining-company-withdraws-from-20b-oil-sands-project-citing-trudeaus-environmental-policies/
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Another Ian –
24 Feb: Ottawa Citizen: ‘Urban-green-left zealots’ are hurting future of Indigenous people, Jason Kenney says
After Teck Resources pulled the plug, Kenney vented his frustration in a phone call with Trudeau. People in both offices say the call went poorly
by Stuart Thomson
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney accused the “urban-green-left zealots” of denying Indigenous people a chance of a prosperous future as the fallout from the Teck mine decision reverberated throughout Canada…
Kenney’s United Conservative government accused the Liberal government for the decision, particularly the dense fog of regulatory uncertainty created by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s environmental policies.
“There is absolutely no doubt that this decision was taken in large part because of regulatory uncertainty, endless delays created by the national government, as well as the general atmosphere of lawlessness that we have seen take hold of parts of our country and much of our economic infrastructure in the past three weeks,” Kenney said at a press conference Monday.
“I really say to the urban-green-left zealots who have been trying to appropriate the cause of First Nations that what in fact you are doing is slamming the door shut on their economic and social future. The government and the people of Alberta are determined to overcome that zealotry from the far left to be partners in prosperity with our Indigenous people.”
He added, “Reconciliation does not mean locking Indigenous people into permanent poverty.”…
After Teck Resources pulled the plug, Kenney vented his frustration in a phone call with Trudeau. People in both offices say the call went poorly with Kenney blaming Trudeau’s delays and endless processes for killing the project and the prime minister disagreeing strenuously.
Later, Trudeau’s office released a relatively tranquil summary of the conversation. The two men agreed on the importance of the resource sector, re-affirmed their shared commitment to keep creating good jobs and hoped for a peaceful solution to the blockades grinding parts of the country’s rail network to a standstill, the report from the Prime Minister’s Office read.
Kenney’s office soon released a rebuttal to the PMO readout, a rare move for a premier…READ ON
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/lame-game-dominates-alberta-as-uncertainty-descends-on-the-province/wcm/d4b152b8-91e8-4651-9ebb-2815ce6b1ad3
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25 Feb: Macleans: Ottawa is angry: an evergreen tweet
Politics Insider for Feb. 25: Conservatives are angry about Teck’s Frontier fizzle
by Nick Taylor-Vaisey
Can the tone in Ottawa get any angrier? Marilyn Gladu, who appears to be matching her Tory leadership rivals’ rhetoric, proclaimed on Sunday her intention to defeat the Liberal government as soon as possible if her party gives her the top job. “They are destroying Canada and decimating our economy,” she said.
Yesterday, outgoing Tory leader Andrew Scheer got on the phone with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Scheer released a “readout” of the call, in which he called on the PM to take action on rail blockades before they “shut down the economy completely.” The PM also conferred with his Incident Response Group, a roving cast of characters that yesterday included several cabinet ministers and the RCMP commissioner, on the blockades. The Ontario Provincial Police started making arrests at the Tyenindaga blockade. And that was all before noon.
As Canada reacted to Teck Resources‘ decision to withdraw its application for a $20.6-billion oil sands mine, federal and provincial Tories were furious. After Tory calls for an emergency debate on the project failed, Scheer said Liberals “can’t hide their glee” at the project’s fate. Later, the House voted down a Conservative motion to side with elected chiefs who support the Coastal GasLink pipeline. Scheer also reacted to a ruling out of Alberta, where the provincial Court of Appeal called the federal carbon price unconstitutional. Premier Jason Kenney hailed the decision as a “victory” for his province, and promised to take the fight to its crescendo in the form of a Supreme Court of Canada hearing.
Jonathan Wilkinson, the environment minister, reminded reporters that two other courts of appeal have already ruled in the feds’ favour, and he “looks forward” to the definitive ruling from the Supremes coming next month: “It is time for politicians of all political stripes to stop fighting climate action,” he said, “and start fighting climate change.”
Big Business takes a stand: On Monday afternoon, four major national voices banded together to speak out on the blockades. The Business Council of Canada, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Canadian Federation of Independent Business and Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters all called reconciliation an “economic and social imperative.” But in the next breath, they urged governments to commit to a “serious, structured and ongoing” conversation with Canadian business.
Jason Kenney still holds a commanding lead in Alberta (LINK): “If the provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?” That was the question posed by Mainstreet Research in a new poll commissioned by our very own 338Canada. The response mostly won’t surprise you (but click through for the full results)(LINK).
The real betrayal of Albertans? Scott Gilmore chimed in on the fallout of Teck Resources moving on from the Frontier proposal. Here are the first few lines. Spoiler alert: disdain lies ahead:
“I dislike career politicians as a species. Until this week I couldn’t explain to myself precisely why. All I knew was that if someone has spent most if not all of their adult life in politics, there is an almost certain chance they make the hair on the back of my neck stand up. I disentangled this personal puzzle as the Teck Resources issue percolated in the news over the last week.”
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/a-final-attempt-to-save-confederation/
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25 Feb: Globe&Mail: Arrests made in B.C., Ontario blockades, as anti-pipeline protests spread
by Wendy Stueck, Eric Atkins & Molly Hayes; Vancouver & Toronto. With reports from Kristy Kirkup and Bill Curry in Ottawa, Les Perreaux in Montreal
A new wave of protests in support of those opposed to a pipeline project in B.C. hit the country Tuesday, dashing hopes that rail service would return to normal after police dismantled a blockade that had paralyzed much of the country’s rail traffic for weeks.
Blockades and protests took place across Canada, including in Toronto, where thousands of commuters were stymied during rush hour.
Canadian National Railway Co. served an injunction Monday night and again on Tuesday to protesters encamped on a railway in Hamilton. The protesters left late Tuesday evening. The encampment blocked GO train commuter traffic and CN freight trains as the dispute over the $6.6-billion Coastal GasLink natural gas pipeline showed no signs of abating.
The regional transit agency Metrolinx said disruptions took place on or near three separate GO rail lines in Toronto during rush hour. Two of the incidents ended relatively quickly, but a third was being watched by staff to see whether it would be necessary to adjust service.
A handful of new blockades at Vancouver’s port and elsewhere also sprang up this week, after police on Monday arrested protesters and cleared a rail blockade in Tyendinaga Mohawk Territory near Belleville, Ont. CN restarted freight traffic hours after police arrested 10 people protesting in support of Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs who oppose the B.C. pipeline…
Police arrested 14 people beginning late Monday night who were blocking rail tracks near New Hazelton, B.C., the same line that was obstructed earlier this month, stopping trains in and out of the port of Prince Rupert…
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd., faced with a two-week-old blockade south of Montreal on tracks that lead to the United States, said it has obtained a Quebec-wide injunction against all such rail protests after other attempted solutions failed.
“The blockade at Kahnawake has severed vital rail connections and severely impacted CP’s operations, customers and the broader economy. Outside of this blockade other ‘copycat’ blockades, including some not involving Indigenous peoples, have developed,” CP said.
The loss of rail transport has disrupted Canada’s manufacturing industries and harmed its international reputation as a reliable supplier and safe place to invest, said Bob Masterson, head of the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada
“You’ve got closures, you’ve got imminent closures. Eighty per cent of what we make is exported and our customers don’t understand and don’t care” why supplies have been disrupted, he said, adding, “When you lose those customers, you’ve lost them forever.”…
Quebec Premier François Legault, who said rail blockades are costing the Quebec economy $100-million a day and has demanded the barricades come down, urged caution Monday. “Quebeckers have suffered enough. It’s time to act. It must be done properly, without violence,” he told reporters Tuesday. He added the government and the Sûreté du Québec provincial police are well aware Peacekeepers have jurisdiction.
“I’m old enough to remember Oka, we know some Mohawks are armed, we must be careful,” he added, referring to the three-month armed standoff in 1990 between Mohawks and the SQ and Canadian army.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-arrests-made-in-bc-ontario-blockades-as-anti-pipeline-protests/
behind paywall on Globe & Mail:
As investment flees the oil sands, Trudeau can no longer pass the buck
by Konrad Yakabuski
Kenney says Alberta will not cede ‘an inch’ of jurisdiction to Ottawa on climate change
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Equatorial-Jet structure will degrade and fade out in early March.
Equatorial-Jetstream structure, 6th March 2020:
https://i.ibb.co/Njsqwrf/Equatorial-jet-fades-first-week-March-2020-Screenshot-2020-02-26-Windy-as-forecasted.png
Ultra dry air is becoming widespread in the lower troposphere:
https://i.ibb.co/nMdwtbD/Ultra-dry-air-is-common-place-Screenshot-2020-02-26-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png
Dry air is attenuating the wet-season inhibiting cyclone deep-convection and decreasing their rainfall intensity:
https://i.ibb.co/LQypPMG/Impact-on-Wet-Season-Screenshot-2020-02-26-Windy-as-forecasted-2.png
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Does the jet stream operate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere?
As the thermosphere and mesosphere cool and lose density, does the troposphere expand and cause the stratosphere to warm?
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As a general rule the subropical jets are not deep enough to reach the stratosphere (or the ground). The strongest and deepest subtropical jets of the last 2 months have been periodically interacting with the lower-most stratosphere. It’s just a passing local transient rather than a general interaction with the whole upper jetstream. But it does operate continuously right up to the tropopause elevation. It tends to get wider but slower with increasing height. So does the polar-jet, but it’s restricted by the lower tropopause above it.
The tropopause is the limit of convective processes and is defined by a sharp fall in humidity level. Normal convection mixing takes moisture that high, and no higher, except for smaller scale vertical waves and super-cell thunderstorms rising past it periodically.
The lower stratosphere is not warmed by the troposphere, in fact the temperature above the tropopause continues to fall lower until the temp inversion occurs ~10k to 15k feet above the tropopause level.
Are you sure about that? Cooling leads to compaction which is an increase in density of the same quantity of matter at a lower level, i.e. the drop in density is just because that layer uniformly fell in altitude.
I talked to a retired guy in the late 1990s from GSFC who told me that their geodetic satellites had slowed down from friction and fallen slightly lower as they were being affected by an expanding rarefied thermosphere as the Sun became more active during the 1970s and early 1980s. The expansion surprised them at the time, so the current re-compaction phase should be a new thing as well.
I’m interested in whatever you find out about it.
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btw as I remember NASA’s original ‘SkyLab’ space station was a victim of that same atmospheric expansion during mid-1979. That’s what slowed it down and caused it to fall out of orbit, whereupon the burned up bits were strewn across the southern ocean and Western Australia.
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‘Are you sure about that? Cooling leads to compaction which is an increase in density …’
Thanks, so can I say the jet stream is meandering because of compaction?
00
I did not say that. I said, “The tropopause is the limit of convective processes”, nor was I talking about compaction being in the troposphere. I have said before that a meridional jetstream is largely not occurring during the past 2 months, for about 2/3 of the northern hemisphere.
I do not know what causes meridional jetstream flows.
00
What is happening now, happened before, and the effect on the ground during the Dalton Minimum is remarkable. You can see the fingerprint of blocking caused by a wayward jet stream.
UK weather from 1780-1820
‘During grand minimums sometimes the winters in the UK were mild, sometimes very wet and sometimes very cold. Often there were extremes, sometimes all in the one winter. The summers were sometimes hot, sometimes very wet and other times quite mild. Sometimes there were extremes of heat and rain in the same summer. During these periods there were many severe storms in the UK.’
Actuaries Institute 2013
00
i.e. increased variability.
What I said the dry stratosphere falling to ground level would do.
The question is, what leads to ice expansion? These may not be the same mechanism.
00
On the other side of the world the First Fleet officers were all in agreement that Southern Ocean climate was exceedingly cold for December in the Austral summer.
They were travelling in the Roaring Forties and continually hit by snow, hail, wind and huge seas, then it would just stop and the fleet became becalmed, only for the tempest to begin again.
I’m visualising a synoptic chart.
00
Sounds like more Low troughs in the ’40s passing east, with a faster deeper jetstream above.
00
Breaking news :
Wonder what China wanted with that 50 tons of vitamin c they had shipped to Wuhan?
Now treating Coronavirus patients and previously severe cases recovered and being discharged from hospitals. High dose antioxidant/anti-inflammatory eh…who’d have thought…
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Skeptics are now being called climate obstructionists.
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