Apparently no one listened to him.
The thing we were always afraid of was a virus that people could shed even if they felt well enough to get on a plane…
He’s right about “the blood of survivors” — blood contains antibodies to the virus after they recover. So plasma from survivors might help current victims. And that trial will happen in New York.
But we don’t need a “global heath system”. We have that already and it’s worse than useless. Back in January the WHO was telling everyone not to stop flights from China. Absurd WHO declarations became the convenient excuse for weak Chief Medical Officers to recommend exactly the wrong thing. WHO advice worked out well for China, but is currently killing citizens everywhere else.
How cheap and easy closing those borders looks now eh?
China bought the WHO a long time ago. WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom, was recently the Foreign Minister for Ethiopia, which is now securely Debt Trapped on China’s Belt and Road. Even as the CCP suppressed doctors, hid the true statistics, and welded their own citizens in their apartments, Tedros fawned over President Xi.
The petition calling to sack the WHO Chief now has 637,000 signatures.
Call for the resignation of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General
We don’t want a global health system. We just need sovereign borders.
h/t Steve H, Albert.
Relatives and friends grass roots statistics?
The biggest problem to get a good perspective is: no good figures yet about the total numbers that have had contact with corona.
Is there an alternative here to fill in some gaps about the spread? Yes I think so.
From my friend and relatives I understand there are no corona victims or people sick from corona with them at this moment.
I am also healthy at the moment.
So there is a contrast in what I hear and read on the media and my personal experience.
I also hear this from other friends and family… so the more need for a better perspective…
Say we ask around about this among family and friends and count the numbers.
And say we ask others to do the same.
And say these numbers can somehow be aggregated.
I learned you just have to go say 5 steps and with this system you kind of reach nearly the whole population on earth, provided everyone is within reach.
So I think this is an option.
I am not good in organizing this kind of things.
So I rather just drop the idea.
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Facebook may have a use after all.
20
No, I don’t think Facebook will do. Facebook is the opposite of grass-roots.
42
Agree.
10
Dr Norman Swann last Monday night on the ABC’s Q&A said that 60% of persons are infetced by asymptomatic carriers of the disease.
Maybe you are one of those ‘asymptomatic’ carriers Jurgen ?
21
Yes Bill, maybe. How should I know? I might as well ask you the same question. I live in Holland. There is still infectious progress going on here from below the rivers (North Brabant) to the north. The town I live in has a steady increase (The Hague). Do you want to scare me with your question, or lecture me to be more serious? I am sure with my age of 75 and being male I am very serious. I am just not in awe for authorities per se. The “Dr” of Dr Norman Swann you name doesn’t say me a lot. I have also some modest academic title I never use, because it is not an argument. “60% of persons are infetced by asymptomatic carriers of the disease”. Well, that is to be expected anyhow. The figure no doubt will grow. So what is your point?
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DR Normal Swann is quite famous here in Oz.
He is a medical doctor who has presented an ABC program called “LIfe Matters’ on radio for about 30 years.
It is not often I listen to him nowadays as he rather old fashioned in his views about Statins for us old folk etc.
And about reducing CO2 to prevent climate change.
But on this issue he is on the money !
If you want a Greenist to understand how serious this COVID 19 situation is here in Oz
Quote Dr Swann to them
They shut up completely !
Now re the Netherlands, I confess I know little.
I heard a while ago that your government has adopted a ‘Herd Immunity’ policy.
Good luck to you at your age with that help from your government !
PS Me I’m 72.
If I had a government that had such a policy I would be kicking them hard up the bum !
00
This “herd immunity” idea was there for a short while with some politicians. A sharp critical reaction followed. As far as I know it is not adopted. Not officially anyway…
00
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
A little perspective
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It’s six (6) not five (5) Jurgen, if you believe it.
Six degree of separation, sometimes known as the “Six Handshakes” rule. However, it’s probably an urban myth, in any case.
Given that shaking hands is no longer medically correct, we’ll probably never know. 🙂
20
Here is more recent updated Bill Gates from 2017….
From: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/04/19/bill-gates-terrorists-could-wipe-30-million-people-weaponising/
“Mr Gates said that today’s widespread global travel mean that a future pandemic could be even more deadly than the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1919 which killed up to 100 million people.
“We will have epidemics in the next 20 years far worse than the ebola epidemic, or the Zika epidemic and there is some chance it would be a form of flu,” he said.[My Bolding]
31
As someone who studied viruses and epidemiology it was always obvious that there would be a killer pandemic.
I mistakenly assumed that our medical advisors understood this and would have prevented it the easy and cheap way, especially when social media meant that the true horrible extent of the outbreak was there in photos. We didn’t even need to send spies to Wuhan. We just needed to read their tweets.
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Bob Dylan may have poetically enumerated it..Who knows? “Play it for me and for Marilyn Monroe”
From: “Bob Dylan – Murder Most Foul (Official Audio)
1,917,359 views
•Mar 26, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NbQkyvbw18
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“Social media” is a tough resource, given that it has an automatic mind of it own/sown. Very sinewy and fibrous, with the occasional ‘lumpy bits’ that can lodge in the throat….i dunno…it’s an awful mess! ??
00
https://www.maangchi.com/recipe/doenjang
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What stuns me is that there appears to be no form of prepared plan at all. They really are making it up as they go along.
Like this whole scenario has NEVER been ‘war gamed’
00
Urban myth or not, depends on your definition. There is this well known phenomenon a meme or topic may explode all over cyberspace on short notice. You can give it any name you want.
20
My neighbour was born near Milan; her mother lives in Melbourne as well. Her middle son told me that they have many cousins and acquaintances there who have health impacts from CV19. No numbers yet on deaths but I guess that will come. The three boys are into football so I guess that would be common with cousins
I was corresponding with a university student from Udine in northern Italy up till last weekend. He said the area had not been impacted at that stage. He has not responded to last email from 6 days ago but did say his internet was increasingly unreliable last week.
There are anecdotal reports that Philippines is a mess with official reports way below actual. I may be able to get more direct information on that.
Friends in King County (near Seattle) are following stay at home orders. One was recently released from quarantine in San Dieago after being stuck on a cruise ship.
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My daughter-in-law has a cousin working in nursing at a Manila hospital. She said she is under a lot of stress but not yet sick.
40
Last time I looked 6 major hospitals in manilla
Are NOT accepting any more COVID 19 patients
Their COVID wards are full to overflowing.
And I think I read that 9 doctors are ill with this disease.
00
Waiting for friends and relatives to get sick means you are guaranteed to find out two weeks too late that you should have done something different to protect yourself and the ones you love.
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“…you should have done something different…”
From your reaction and Bill’s I understand I it looks like I have a casual attitude? Sorry for that. I am not casual as far as a can see, I take all the precautions advised. I feel we are in dire need of a better perspective. Just because – of course – my personal perspective is limited to the people I know. That is why I presented it in the context of my suggestion.
My dilemma is this. Right from the start in China, and at the same time they started drastic isolation measures, there were a lot of foreigners and the like leaving Wuhan to all places in the outside world. I was perplexed. You could see the contradiction in human behavior and the start of the global pandemic right there. This pattern is repeating itself over and over again, globally, to this very day.
So in the advice you give and the measures you take, you have to balance the medical perspective with the reality of human social behavior. Depending on your position and responsibilities. I fully respect you medical stance.
00
Small correction in “From my friend and relatives I understand …” – should be “From my friends and relatives I understand…” – friends in plural, makes a difference..
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Jo
‘we need sovereign borders’
Yes here in the UK we had to vote three times to get our sovereignty back in the face of tooth and nail opposition from the ruling elite and the deep state.
Did you read the Guido report that the editor of The Lancet is an XR rebellion supporter and he made a statement back at the end of January denying there was a problem and now is railing against the UK govt for not doing more at an earlier stage?
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Talk about Doubling Down. Lancet editor knows very well the problems in his own field. Yet he supports Doctors for Xtinction Rebellion
Offline: What is medicine’s 5 sigma? Lancet Editor Richard Horton
“A lot of what is published is incorrect.” I’m not allowed to say who made this remark because we were asked to observe Chatham House rules. We were also asked not to take photographs of slides. Those who worked for government agencies pleaded that their comments especially remain unquoted, since the forthcoming UK election meant they were living in “purdah”—a chilling state where severe restrictions on freedom of speech are placed on anyone on the government’s payroll. Why the paranoid concern for secrecy and non-attribution? Because this symposium—on the reproducibility and reliability of biomedical research, held at the Wellcome Trust in London last week—touched on one of the most sensitive issues in science today: the idea that something has gone fundamentally wrong with one of our greatest human creations
The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness. As one participant put it, “poor methods get results”.
http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960696-1.pdf
Lancet editor Richard Horton urges medical licensing body not to punish doctors in Extinction Rebellion protests
The Lancet is one of the most respected medical journals in the world.
So when its editor, Richard Horton, endorsed nonviolent protests to address a climate emergency, it generated attention far and wide.
Horton’s videotaped statement is available on the website of Doctors for Extinction Rebellion, which is a collective of medical professionals who’ve participated in civil disobedience.
They’ve done this because they see climate change as “an impending public health catastrophe”.
“The climate emergency that we’re facing today is the most important existential crisis facing the human species,” Horton said. “And since medicine is all about protecting and strengthening the human species, it should be absolutely foundational to the practice of what we do every single day.
https://www.straight.com/life/1317926/video-lancet-editor-richard-horton-urges-medical-licensing-body-not-punish-doctors
Lancet Editor: Protesting Climate Change Is a Doctor’s Duty
https://nonprofitquarterly.org/lancet-editor-protesting-climate-change-is-a-doctors-duty/
00
Gives a whole new meaning to “Dr Who” and Xi Lord.
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How cheap and easy closing those borders looks now eh? +100 (Surreal)
Tedros Adhanmon was and is a Chinese puppet. Fire the puppet. I do not blame the puppet, however, the all powerful, faceless puppet master is the problem.
If the Chinese government had just told the truth, to their own people and to the world, rather than trying to protect their industrial interests, the world would have had a chance to stop this mess.
Millions and millions of people are going to die because of the soulless, evil Chinese propaganda machine.
I see the EU is not helping member countries with the costs to address Covid-19. When the real economic problems hit the weak EU countries, it will be interesting to see how the EU responds.
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I disagree. The puppet masters are not the problem ; they just read the script. The director makes sure that the script is followed , but who is the writer?
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The writer is Marx.
20
Trotsky for producer maybe?
10
Now that journalism is decreed to be a non-essential service, I think we should stop and think about what it is that we are “demanding”.
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“Now that journalism is decreed to be a non-essential service…”
I believe that journalism is an essential service and its almost total absence from the US for approximately the last 30 years has been a serious problem and I look forward to the time when that service is once again available.
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In the current circumstances , holding your breath would seem to be inadvisable. 🙂
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I don’t want to disturb Keith’s Kalm, but it may be the case that some journalism is more non-essential than other journalism.
And “internet rationing” has always been a thing.
” . .keep a smile on your face
And a song in your hearts.” 🙂
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I rarely look at mainstream media but find that a glance through the newspapers here occasionally always comes up with the main focus of modern journalism;
The creation of Rhyme in the Headlines.
It somehow cheapens the whole thing.
KK
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The ABC stopped journalism years ago
It’s now just a propaganda vehicle for extreme leftist and environmental views
They only provide “evidence” and views based on flawed logic and pop science
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It’s the same with the BBC.
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Ha, the CDC stopped disease control a long time ago as well.
30
One of the most interesting statistics from the COVID19 data is the recovery rate for Chinese cases. Of the some 80,000 infected, 75,000 have recovered and only 3200 have died (4% death rate of closed cases).
No country has a success rate anywhere near this.
What do the Chinese know that we don’t – or are the figures, you know?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
00
Australia: Vigilantes Slash Tyres of Coronavirus ‘Refugees’ Pouring Into Outback from Cities
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/28/australia-vigilantes-slash-tyres-of-coronavirus-refugees-pouring-into-outback-from-cities/
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Before toilet paper hoarding became popular, the “grey nomads” used to loot the public toilets in some areas.UHF radio gives them away when they brag about their “bargains”. Always on the lookout for a free feed around the communal campfires at outback caravan parks – particularly if Barra is being offered.
10
China.
Belt and Road.
Globalism.
The WHO.
China bought the WHO….
There can be found in the fever swamps the notion that this is all a Chinese conspiracy; that a weaponized virus of appropriate
strength has been unleashed by the Xi government, which can take the pain and survive, and do relatively much better than the rest of the
world thus end up much closer to their goal of world domination.
Let us assume that this is complete balderdash. Hogwash. A nasty and evil rumor.
It is still incumbent upon our western governments and peoples to act, for the most pat, as if it were true because the Chinese are already
acting as if it were true.
They are in engaged in: no secret: a contest with the west for world domination and are efforting to demonstrate the superiority of their culture and political
system. It is fair to say we in the west have been doing much the same.
The two (or several, if you prefer) sides do not play by the same set of rules. This may be especially true in extremis; the US, if capable, will aid even North Korea and Iran
out of humanitarian impulses, and if and as our production allows will reach out to the rest of the world.
China is also reaching out to the world, in precisely the way you might have expected had this been a calculated event. Their dialectic is to use events, no matter how horrific,
to always further the ultimate goals of the state, while in the west we suspend certain competitive norms out of humanitarian impulses.
Western concepts of individual rights and honorable rules of fair play between businesses and nations have always been seen by the Chinese as weaknesses to be exploited; thus their
current behavior is neither different nor unexpected, nor typical of the culturally Chinese — the citizens of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and many of Chinese extraction in other lands are suffering like everyone else.
We all need to gain a clarity about how and why the Chinese government behaves as it does during this crisis, remember it afterwards, and react appropriately.
It is fair, in a free society, for some of our citizens to believe that the Chinese are correct, and take their side. But we need to force them to defend the whole package
of beliefs honestly, not just recite propaganda as paid shills. And we need to be careful of international organizations, whose third world members sometimes seem vulnerable
to “offers they can’t refuse”.
The struggle is not secret; but events have shown the danger in pretending it is not real, earnest, and with consequences beyond slight differences in economic well-being.
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I suggest a reading of “The art of war” by Sun Tzu” gives an excellent overview, even detail, of the strategies and tactics being used against us by China.
It’s a short read, and freely available from Project Gutenberg.
…
https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/132
Cheers
Dave B
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USA has activated 1 million military reservists.
Is it to fight the virus, or maybe China if the US has decided this virus is an act of war? I dont know…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-idUSKBN21E3I1
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday signed an executive order authorizing the secretaries of homeland security and defense to call up military and Coast Guard reservists to active duty, the White House said.
“Under the order, the two secretaries are authorized to order reservists from the Army, Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard to active duty for up to two years “not to exceed 1,000,000 members on active duty at any one time.”
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“It is still incumbent upon our western governments and peoples to act, for the most pat, as if it were true because the Chinese are already acting as if it were true.”
Good comment Richard, a very good summation. Whatever the origin of the disease there is little doubt that China sees this as an opportune time, with opportune circumstances to drive a stake into the West’s heart.
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If there is any doubt how low the CCP and its adherents will sink, this should dispel it.
Trigger warning.Trigger warning.Trigger warning.Trigger warning. This link should make you angry, fume in fact; if you love this country and care about your fellow citizens.
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/seeker-of-truth-is-mad-as-hell-over-china-and-shes-not-gonna-take-it-anymore.html
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Surely the west drove this stake into its own heart with the aid of another one called global warming?
Or was it shooting itself in both feet whilst giving the Chinese a free pass to do what they wanted with co2 emissions until 2030 even though they are already the globes biggest emitters.
I bet the Chinese and Russia couldn’t believe their luck.
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They certainly could not believe the rank stupidity.
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While I have been as vocal as anybody about China’s behaviours, and lies, and numbers, I cannot see this as some grand conspiracy. If so it is very misdirected and grossly pre-mature.
Most of the world does not trust China. Only about one tenth of one percent of international transactions are in the yaun. China is quite dependent on the global consumer, the US and Europe. Trade was moving from China before. That movement was is and now will accelerate greatly. Their own economy is devastated, and the deaths were far worse then admitted.
Even as they may get some productionc back, there market is shrinking and finding other sources, or will find other sources when those markets get back on their feet, which is months away.
10
It is an irrational suggestion that either the US or China manufactured the covid-19 virus.
The US is a real democratic country, that has real checks and balances that make it literally almost impossible for a US President or anyone else in the US government/US military to develop and release a covid biological weapon.
A US President does not have the power to order an attack on a foreign country, without Congressional notification and approval.
A US President would face war crimes, if he/she attempted to develop and/or use a biological weapon.
The fact that the Chinese actively pushed this absurded, absolutely untrue propaganda statement is unbelievable. It is a sign that the Chinese propaganda machine and what does or does not control it, is out of control and will say and make up anything. The Chinese lie about Covid-19 and the fact that high level Chinese officials had been pushing the lie, is dangerously aggressive. There is talk that there is a power struggle going on in China.
China has the power to develop a biological weapon, however, it is unthinkable that a Chinese government would attack their own people and would risk killing millions and millions of people in other countries. The Chinese are winning the economic game. The Chinese are using their massive economic power to control and dominate large portions of the world. Using a biological weapon would risk world support for there stealth taking over of the world. Unthinkable. Almost impossible.
The US and China would not use a biological weapon. Biological weapons are not selective, they are too dangerous. Biological weapons kill indiscriminately.
The evidence presented is that covid-19 is not man made. I accept that. If it were man made, the only logical option would be some evil multi billionaire, person, who has the funds and know how to develop and release the virus without getting caught.
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A US President does not have the power to order an attack on a foreign country, without Congressional notification and approval.
Are you kidding?
Yemen, Syria, Iran…
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But it was only a harmless trade war. There was no need for retaliation.
20
Assassinations, drone warfare?
23
??????? Which side’s.
30
Peter F:
WHICH President got the USA involved in those areas?
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Yes and congress was informed after the fact, concerning those and any other US military actions. There is no hiding US, military actions, from congress or from the American people.
The point is US military actions all must use approved, non war crime, weapons and must inform Congress of what happened in the conflict. It is literally not possible for a US president to us the US Military to attack a country with biological weapons. That option is not possible in the US system. Even if the President lost his/her mind or was taken over by Aliens.
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Well said Mr Astley.
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I do not wish to propose that anyone released this virus intentionally, but the latest virus does kill discriminately. We have only to look at the age vs mortality statistics for the current virus. If a country had a major aging population problem, with a huge funding liability, it may be that some bloody minded tyrant may consider such an option, if only for internal use. If not now, then at some time into the future. Respect for human life, whether at the front end, or the aging end, has not been that high in some eastern cultures, but in the West, appears to be on a serious downward slide.
There has been mention of a virus research facility at Wuhan. It is likely that there are similar research facilities elsewhere in the world. The purpose of such facilities in not clear to me, not that I have seriously delved into the topic. No doubt they are there to do research for the benefit of mankind……
Any one deciding to wage war by ‘conventional’ means, would likely accept that they would suffer some losses in the conflict. The decision to go to war, would only be made after an analysis of one’s own capabilities, and that of the new enemy, and a finding that the level of losses would be acceptable. It would follow that for non-conventional warfare, the reasoning would be similar. Biological warfare, if it can be shown to produce a favourable result, with acceptable losses, would surely be on the menu. More so, if it does not destroy infrastructure, and does not cause lasting contamination.
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I disagree about a created virus. My perspective is that it is likely( above 50 percent chance) a manufactured virus for defensive purposes which China list containment of. The evidence is extensive. There were no bats sold in the Seafood Market at this time.
( They were either migrated or hibernating.)
Here is one line of evidence, worth the read…
https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/
00
On China: I agree with Richard Ilfeld and TedM. Chinese people are great, their leader is the problem. Without democracy, how can they get rid of him? If the free world has to do it for them, it could get very nasty.
On WuFlu: Let’s suppose that all western governments did close down everything for n weeks to stop the virus. What happens when everything is reopened? Surely the answer is that if there’s just one case somewhere in the world, then the virus starts up again and we have the exact same problem all over again.
I do think that Australia, Britain and the US are doing the right thing by trying to slow the virus to be within the limits of the health system, rather than trying to stop it completely. I also think that Donald Trump has got it more right than the others by recognising that the people low down in the heap (his base) are hurt more by economic shutdown than the fat cats in Washington and NY who can afford to sit it out. We need a strategy for everyone, not just for the elites.
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Who let that cruise ship across our border? Who let those passengers self isolate after flying back? Our sovereign borders work well against poor traumatised refugees. But not against the rich, the white, and the retired. As to WHO and messaging- we are no better, haircuts and schools are ok, but not nail bars and gyms
Protest about the WHO all you want, but it is hypocritical to ignore your own backyard
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Peter nice try but you need to look up the UN definition of refugee , as to why the cruise ship was allowed to disembark that’s a NSW stuff up of monumental proportions and the relevant NSW authorities responsible need to be queuing at Centrelink .
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Nope Robert – Most of the detainees are certified refugees, including the family of four held in isolation on Christmas Island, they are just not allow to come to Australia.
Need I remind you that the first wave of suspected infected citizens were interned on Christmas Island, or at the centre in Darwin. That was Federal. Now we just let anyone fly in, or arrive by ship, and as citizens they go their merry way. (non citizens are not allowed back – but the virus does not discriminate like that)
Stop with the blame shifting. Those arrivals, as now evidenced by the Fed using hotels to forcibly quarantine them, were not the sole responsibility of NSW – it does not have the power to stop international arrivals – that is a federal responsibility
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‘Tis you who are blame shifting and those ” refugees” you speak of have been found not to be refugees by over five different judges .
To be a refugee you must take asylum in the first country you enter , Australia has exised certain areas up north for many reasons .
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Have it your way, I can nothing to support your claim though, nor can I find anything to support your first country claim.
But the point is that we are just as bad as the WHO
17
Easy enough to find both but what’s the point your ideology blinkers would not allow you to see it .
30
Peter F — I’ve hardly given SlowMo and Brendan-kill-them-Murphy a free pass for their deadly incompetence.
I’m not blameshifting. Gates called for World Health Organisation, and I pointed out that this is exactly what we don’t need.
By being corruptly captured by China, the WHO will kill far more people than it has ever saved.
In the end, the WHO incompetance will kill more people — citizens, refugees and everyone — than any Australian pollie.
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On that I agree Jo.
I misunderstood the intent of your post, which lead to my comment. I apologise for that
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Thanks. No apology needed. We are here to discuss…
00
Gates was talking about producing vaccines that had nano microchips included inside the vaccine.
What sort of person injects microchips into a population?
But too Mark of the Beast for me. No way.
https://biohackinfo.com/news-bill-gates-id2020-vaccine-implant-covid-19-digital-certificates/
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You beat me too it. See my post below regarding other issues. People have been falling for his globalist ideas like sheep.
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From my Christian perspective Id wondered how it might come about. For those who dont know the Bible, this is an End of the Age prophecy. Its a warning – taking the Mark is death by God.
Note the inability to buy or sell without taking the mark:
“11Then I saw another beast rising out of the earth. It had two horns like a lamb and it spoke like a dragon.
“12It exercises all the authority of the first beast in its presence, and makes the earth and its inhabitants worship the first beast, whose mortal wound was healed.
“13It performs great signs, even making fire come down from heaven to earth in front of people,
“14and by the signs that it is allowed to work in the presence of the beast it deceives those who dwell on earth, telling them to make an image for the beast that was wounded by the sword and yet lived.
“15And it was allowed to give breath to the image of the beast, so that the image of the beast might even speak and might cause those who would not worship the image of the beast to be slain.
“16Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead,
“17so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name.
“18This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.
—Revelation 13:11–18
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Yes I understand all that but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This is very likely just another step along the way, and we still have some time to ago. How long no one really knows. It could be years or decades. Be patient.
Now the governments all over the world are entering the next phase towards the final world-wide economic collapse. It will take time for it to take effect but the massive blow out of debt is dare I use the word, UNPRECEDENTED. I’m still waiting for PM Morrison to follow other leaders around the world and fork out direct payments to everyone who has lost their jobs. Forget CentreLink. It’s broken anyway.
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I don’t know why people with natural herd immunity need to be publicly identifiable.
12
Because he is our leader who is trying his best and should listen to all suggestions. With a leader who doesn’t listen we run the higher risk of end up with a crash and burn scenario.
20
Just line up and receive your compulsory test for the presence of Covid 19 anti-bodies.
And then display your “unvaccinated ” sign where the sheeple can see it.
I mean ” lapel pin” of course .
20
I for one don’t want to listen to Bill Gates. He’s a globalist and wants to introduce a NWO by way of a world-wide identification system and digital currency. Looks like Jo and others here are falling into his trap. It’s what I’ve been expecting all along to happen. Eventually most people will welcome an Orwellian society with open arms when faced with a major crisis like the one we are having now, both with regards to the pandemic and the economy. Make no mistake about. Governments are now talking of 6-12 month lock downs. That’s a step the NWO advocates have been waiting for and will take advantage of it to the full if it goes ahead.
Bill Gates will love to ID everyone with a biometric database:
Bill Gates: Aadhaar Doesn’t Harm Privacy, It Merely Gives an Identity
He also supports ID2020 to provide a digital identity for everyone on the planet.
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Bill Gates wrought a massive amount of damage on the computer industry in its early days. By ruthlessly protecting Microsoft’s operating system monopoly, he blocked a massive amount of innovation. All for his own profit, at the expense of other people’s wellbeing.
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He continues to enjoy the privileges that are extended to a VERY USEFUL idiot.
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Yes indeed. He developed the worst operating system every developed yet with his clever marketing made it the most popular.
61
“He developed the worst operating system every developed yet…”
A little history is order here. When IBM went to Microsoft to license their applications for the IBM PC, IBM thought Microsoft could license them CP/M (the big PC OS of its day), but that product was actually owned by Gary Kidall of Digital Research, Inc. (DRI). Microsoft had no PC OS at the time and had no intention of creating one, so Microsoft sent IBM to DRI for the OS, but Gary Kidall was out of town at the time and DRI refused to do a deal with IBM until Gary Kidall was available. IBM was desperate to get an OS so they asked Microsoft to find them one and Microsoft did, it was an OS hacked together by Tim Patterson of Seattle Computer Products based loosely on CP/M called QDOS (Quick & Dirty Operating System) which Microsoft purchased from Seattle Computer Products for $50,000 and after some work on it by Microsoft and IBM it became PC DOS 1.0. At the time, Microsoft did not want to be in the OS business and if IBM had been in less of a hurry, they could have gotten a much better OS from DRI and Microsoft would not have been in the OS business. So my question is who was responsible for the poor quality of PC DOS, Microsoft or is IBM?
100
Bill Gates in the early stages was in control of the development of Windows operating systems. He also used the services of Dave Cutler a developer of VMS and other o/s who used to work at DEC (later acquired by Compaq and in turn acquired by HP) in the VMS development team. I met him a few times when I was there at DEC. Nice guy.
20
If I recall correctly, Dave Cutler was originally hired to help develop Windows/NT. A lot of people at the time said that Windows/NT was based on VMS. Without Dave Cutler, Windows may well have remained the “cooperative multitasking” operating system that it was prior to the introduction of the Intel 80386 processor. Dave Cutler and the Windows/NT team took full advantage of the Intel 80386 (and later Intel processors) by making Windows/NT a modern, preemptive multitasking operating system.
30
Yes he did. However, the story becomes blurred after that. Some say he left in disgust when he tried to suggest certain enhancements to NT, in particularity on the security front. Others say he didn’t leave right away but later on for other reasons. I’ve lost contact with him after leaving DEC.
30
I am not a big fan of Wikipedia, but according to them, at Microsoft Dave Cutler worked on:
Microsoft Windows NT
Worked on targeting Windows NT to Digital’s 64-bit Alpha architecture
Worked on Windows 2000.
Worked on porting Windows to AMD’s 64-bit AMD64 architecture.
Worked on Windows XP Pro 64-bit and Windows Server 2003 SP1 64-bit releases.
Worked on Microsoft’s Live Platform
Worked on Microsoft Windows Azure
Worked on Microsoft Xbox
20
Another interesting piece of trivia from that time frame that most people don’t know is that the IBM PC was not IBM’s first “Personal Computer”. That distinction goes to the IBM 5100 portable computer which was released 6 years prior to the IBM PC. It is said to have had an IBM developed microprocessor based on the IBM 360 model 30 and ran the APL programming language copied directly from the IBM 360/30. Its main problem was that it cost $5,000 just to open the box and closer to $10,000 to get a usable system. One of the reasons the IBM PC was created using off-the-shelf parts and software and a development team that was purposely removed from the normal IBM development channels was because IBM realized that if they used standard internal teams and parts, they would end up with another IBM 5100, a slow but reliable product that did the job but that no one except a medium to large business could afford. The IBM PC was actually given the number 5150 indicating that they thought of it as part of the “5100” series of computer even though architecturally they had nothing in common.
30
Having said what I said, it takes two to tango. People were so gullible, including myself and fell for his crappy operating system in the early days in droves. I have learned by lesson.
20
Yup…linux rocks….
40
Indeed. I started with System V.
10
However, I’m more an Open VMS geek. Loved that o/s.
10
VMS was an excellent OS. The company I worked for acquired a small company that ran all of their operations on a VMS system. After the acquisition, because the VMS system was getting a little long-in-the-tooth, instead of upgrading the system it was decided to convert them to run remotely off of the corporation’s main system. Once the the conversion was complete and the VMS system was shut down for the last time, they decided to have a formal ceremony and they buried it in the back of the plant. To the best of my knowledge, it is still there. They really did love that system.
10
Jo has not endorsed Bill Gate’s Globalism
She has just put up a video showing that he foresaw this pandemic issue.
I think that this pandemic is in fact rock solid evidence for stepping back from Globalism !
90
A lot of people foresaw this pandemic. I know I did. I study the Bible. Does that make me less or more reliable than Bill Gates?
21
Neither.
It just makes you less rich.
That’s a good thing.
20
Rich in what? I’m rich in righteousness in the eyes of the Lord. It’s worth more than all the money in the world.
22
Exactly.
Camel Eye. Needle.
10
“I for one don’t want to listen to Bill Gates. He’s a globalist ”
Jo fell for nothing. Did you read what I wrote below the video?
51
Yes I did but why single out Bill Gates as the person to predict the pandemic. There are many others. I gave my reasons why I prefer not to listen to him.
40
No singling anyone. I’ve posted videos from many people. Bill was right on the pandemic risk. Not on the solution. Despite all the claims he runs the world, no one listened to him (or any of the others saying a pandemic was coming).
I don’t believe I said you had to watch him…
00
Bill Gates’ warning isn’t really relevant to this epidemic though, is it?
“we don’t have the eipdemiologists” – Maybe we did, but it doesn’t matter when the Chinese government hides the problem for months.
“there was no-one there to look at treatment approaches” – Didier Raoult came out with results for Chloroquine quite quickly once the situation became apparent
“no one to look at the diagnostics” – we had the first test kits available in February, very soon after it started spreading outside of China
Maybe, we had actually taken him seriously and gotten our act together.
24
Nah. Medical research is streaking ahead in leaps and bounds, and 100 teams suddenly changed direction in late January.
We didn’t even bother to prep guys like Trump or Scott Morrision or Boris that the big one was coming. They took months to get past the bad advice of their own departments and the corrupted WHO. They knew nothing and weren’t even mentally prepared.
10
No, it was because China lied. They lied by saying that there was no human to human transmission. And because their lies drowned out the truth, they were believed by the WHO, until it was too late.
This was a clear violation of article 6 of the International Health Regulation 2005 by China.
The CCP should be taken before the ICJ over it.
00
To anyone who trusts the Chinese stats on this epidemic:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/shipments-of-urns-in-wuhan-raise-questions-about-chinas-coronavirus-reporting/
Must be a whole lot of people died in traffic accidents… or from smoking… or shark attacks.
This ties in well with the plumes of smoke seen around crematoriums talked about some time ago.
Also, China loses far more than this to seasonal flu, and they don’t shut down the country for that. Call out anyone standing by Chinese propaganda.
100
Chinese stats show that of 81,000 cases, 75,000 have recovered and 3200 died. Amazing figures really. No other country is within a bull’s roar of those numbers i.e. only 4% of closed cases have died.
Either China have fashioned a cure of the stats are wrong.
81
Ian,
Both could also be right.
China has fashioned a cure – HCQ and other anti-virals
The stats are wrong – part of the CCP’s control of information.
30
“In October 2019, just several weeks before COVID-19 erupted in Wuhan, China, the Gates Foundation, the World Economic Summit, and John Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic response simulation in New York City. Their seven recommendations were prophetic and serve as a reminder of what the global markets are currently experiencing and what some recommended but many ignored”
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/road-not-traveled-how-big-science-skipped-clinical-trials-after-past
72
Yeah…Event 201…sponsored by Gates I think….reminds me of how Norad was offline during a military exercise in sept 2001 and…but i digress….
50
On a brighter note:
Abbott’s 5-Minute Coronavirus Test Gets Emergency Use Approval From FDA
Abbott Laboratories says the coronavirus test can deliver positive results in as little as five minutes and negative results in 13 minutes.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/abbott-rapid-coronavirus-test-fda-approval
80
China is willing to help other countries. Spain has just ordered EUR432m in medical supplies from China:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-emergency/spain-extends-coronavirus-lockdown-in-war-to-buy-medical-supplies-idUSKBN21D0RH
Total deaths globally yesterday exceeded the entire death toll in China over the past 4 months. US is about two weeks away from its daily death toll exceeding China’s over the past 4 months.
Social distancing is working in Washington State. Their trajectory in death rate is a fraction of the rest of the big States.
60
Read somewhere that the 15 minute test kits they sent to Spain had an 80% faulty rate .
31
The GPs say 70% false negatives AND false positives.
20
Sorry I should have said ” up to 80%” .
https://news.yahoo.com/china-supplied-faulty-coronavirus-test-162306412.html
30
They probably forget to specify the required reliability and got what they paid for.
China is noted for its ability to supply anything you need; quality costs more.
Germany developed their own testing regime and have tested large number of people. Their death rate is almost two orders of magnitude lower than Spain and Italy.
40
According to China’s embassy in Spain you need to purchase from an “authorised” manufacturer.
Otherwise you’ll be sent unservisable product.
“As Spain’s death toll hit 4,089, the Chinese embassy in Madrid said on Thursday (26 March) that the Spanish government had bought a batch of faulty COVID-19 testing kits from an unauthorised Chinese company”
At the risk of repeating myself:
……a famous Welshwoman once giggled: “Well he would (say that) wouldn’t he”.
Nothing is “unauthorised” in Communist China.
40
A horrible story about Chinese Corona virus testing kits made in China and bought by Spain. They don’t work! This is far worse than useless because it allowed suspected people to infect others without restraint, something which would not happen if the kit worked.
The Chinese government says the manufacturer is ‘unlicensed’ but that is not possible in the communist system where every business is controlled and supervised by the Communist Party.
151
This is deadly profiteering, but so was the widespread practice putting plastic (melamine) in baby formula. Spices too were fake, half useless substitutes like chopped olive tree leaves or iron oxide in the paprika. Half of the content of spices was fake, so they looked a bargain at either twice the size or half the price.
61
TdeF,
Same thing happened with 60,00 kits sent to Prague – 80* failure.
20
I think the irony meter just pegged at max here in the US:
US States Ditching Reusable Plastic Bag Incentives, to Reduce Covid-19 Contamination Risk
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/28/us-states-ditching-misguided-reusable-plastic-bag-incentives-to-reduce-covid-19-contamination-risk/
121
And people praying for summer and warm weather to end the pandemic in the temperate Northern hemisphere where 60% of all people live. Global Warming will save them!
80
Where’s Pat? Have I missed something?
90
You noticed he has been AWOL as well , I’m one of those that find some of his media trawling useful and informative.
Hope he is ok wherever he is .
90
In the chaos of the moment, cut and paste became irrelevant in a slow system.
10
I hope Pat is OK and can contribute to the blog soon; I enjoy many of the articles he finds.
60
I too have noticed that Pat hadn’t been around.
40
Scaper, well spotted. Last comment from Pat was March 20th. 🙁
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/midweek-unthreaded-111/#comment-2294961
No clues there. I hope he is holed up in the hills somewhere. He guards his privacy and there is no way to contact him alas. We do hope he safe, and I fear there may be other good people who quietly disappear. I’ll let you know if I hear anything.
In the meantime, if someone else wants to try to fill his shoes that would be useful.
40
We have a red thumber. Everyone gets one today.
42
Maybe a Chinese troll TdeF ?
51
Chinese government troll.
71
Part of the problem is with people who try to find a middle path. That includes fatalist doctors. And that is possible because we have not had a world pandemic in a hundred years and it is all quite surreal, unbelievable and politicans try to find a middle path, the first and major mistake.
When pandemics were commonplace, total isolation was standard. I read a lovely piece in the Spectator about a rock on a hill with a hole in it. In the Middle Ages routine pandemics the village people put coins in the hole and the farmers left food. Total isolation was obviously the only way to go in the days before print, radio, telephone, sms, television, G5.
But the sale of fake testing kits is a real disaster, especially infuriating and deadly if they are Chinese ones. It happens in every field, ‘passing off’ and it is endemic in China, common practice. Good documentation does not help. There is nothing which cannot be faked and it is both infuriating and deadly and applies to all transactions. For some reason no other country does this, so it is a cultural thing. And our ISO9000 standards of verifiable and traceable documentation mean nothing.
It was the same in WWII when the Americans were helping the Chinese fight the Japanese in China and American bombers were fighting in the air and Americans and British on the ground with India. The world was desperately short of Tungsten used for lights mainly and steel alloys and all the supplies were in China under the Chinese. So which country won the bidding for the tungsten? Japan.
90
This is a comment on the failure of the rule of law in China. While a strict totalitarian society, a history of corrupt government as in all communist societies allows the flouting of normal rules of conduct, ethics, morals if the profit is good. It is a problem with all forms of socialism. The people running the place want more rewards than the job offers. Infinite power and no pay. So they use their power to enrich themselves. It happens in Western democracies as well, but it is illegal and you will go to jail if caught. It is fundamentally why all socialist countries are corrupt from the top down.
Even socialist Adolph Hitler of the NAtional Socialist party (NAZI) made a fortune with his book Mein Kampf. Infinite power, no cash, lousy salary. So as Chancellor he compelled everyone to buy copies, say when getting married. Millions of deutschmarks flowed to Adolph. However a zealous tax inspector sent him a tax assessment for millions, so Hitler changed the law to make the Chancellor exempt from taxes. At the end, among other things Hitler was a cr**k.
100
Do you know of a government of any stripe , that is not corrupt from the top down?
70
Nope.
10
I have not found the Australian government to be corrupt. Idiotic. Wrong. Incompetent. Misdirected. Useless. But I never even suspected corruption. In many military dictatorships posing as democracies, Zimbabwe for example, it is the norm. And all socialist countries where everyone is equal, except the people at the top.
10
Be interesting to review the infection stats for Qld in the coming weeks. We have just become the canaries in the mine for the first large scale test of the effectiveness of the doctrine of “social distancing”.
50
That is going on in every country. Isolation is the only solution. You have to treat everyone as a potential carrier, especially in public. Everyone. Most coronavirus carriers have no idea they have it.
However I am watching for the curve to go flat. When it goes flat, infection transfer has stopped. The virus is isolated. Start counting from then. Flat for three weeks is extinction. Of the virus, not us.
I was excited this week when the curve for Australia went flat. But with 30,000 people on ships offshore and thousands a day landing at our airports, we have to wait for the stragglers. Why they were allowed get on cruise ships and aircraft in the middle of a world pandemic is beyond explanation.
And I am hoping that our growth in cases is due to this ongoing rate of new infection from overseas, not domestically. We may suddenly go flat. I hope.
110
TdeF — yes, I can see that flatness too. But I am afraid that what we are seeing is the plateau thanks to us cutting back on viral imports and closing flights (finally) but in a week or two — unless we take serious action — we will see the community spread numbers rise and the exponential curve lift off here. I assume the warm weather is slowing things in Australia too. We won’t have that protection in May.
We should make the most of this and crush it now, but with no 3 week stay-in-place move, or mass Korean style test program I fear we are tossing away this last best chance before winter.
50
Fully agree. We want a flat line. No more infections. NOthing less. And that means we have won, absolutely won. And saved people beyond counting. Including ourselves.
20
There’s talk that up to 800,000 people failed to vote in these Council elections.
Still, Annastacia must be rubbing her hands with glee. That’s $105 Million in failure to vote fines.
And no scrutineering. That puts every close result into a disputed return situation, and there’s a windfall for those
other parasiteslawyers.Tony.
91
The Electoral Commission has covered itself in shame.
For a mob which has about 1 job to do every year, they sure do it poorly.
10
In WA we don’t have to vote for local government elections. I suppose not having an upper house Queensland needs to have compulsory voting for councils to create work.
00
Well…I still say a day at the beach is probably the best thing you can do.
Well, at least the beach I go to with lots of crashing waves (Lenard effect) with limited people.
Large doses of negative ions are the go for those nasty viruses eh Jo?
Way better than toilet tolls or Tea. Grin.
Maybe if hospitals used negative ion generators (as studies have shown) far more the patients would recover faster than from the usual recirculated air coupled with outgassed chemicals from countless surfaces.
Hark ye back to the Spanish Flu when patients were put outside and how the mortality rates improved noticeably.
Don’t look for complicated solutions to simple problems.
90
Still a little cold here in Northern Ohio, US, to go out to the beaches along The Great Puddle On The North Shore (also known as Lake Erie). Also, its fresh water so that may affect the Lenard Effect.
50
Covid-19
What a charming name for the Wuhan Virus , Hubei Epidemic , now Chinese Pandemic .
China has a lot to answer for but the WHO and UN etc will answer for them in the nicest possible way .
This could have been nipped in the bud .
China let the cat out of the bag , but did nothing to protect us mice .
50
Hi Jo
I find the blood plasma immunity concept interesting but a few questions arise. How much do you need to treat someone to the point they gain immunity and given we have only a few hundred thousand people who have recovered where do you get enough blood plasma to treat 7.5 billion? Or is it a treatment only for Bill Gates and his billionaire mates?
Even if you limit the treatment to the most vulnerable that is still a lot of blood donations from a pretty small pool. Do we hire a pod of vampires to pinch their blood at night or are we talking forced donation? Either way not a practical, or ethical, solution for the current problem.
Supervised quarantine of the infected is the only short term solution and hopefully a vaccine will be available in a few years.
40
Jo says “laughing”
[Does tossing rocks help you feel better? – Jo]
12
Are we saying that the usual methods, utilising the bovine’s ability to transmit antibodies in her milk — Stolle hyper-immune milk powder comes to mind- are no longer useful?
Or not applicable?
10
It seems a good idea while we have 2,000 infected people, most of whom will have antibodies. A plasma donation is simple and is not whole blood. It would help the newly infected who still measure in the hundreds and especially the sickest people whether 19 or 90. As for the most vulnerable, that is an impossible task. Everyone gets infected. You cannot stop this thing with plasma antibodies as a substitute for innoculation.
20
DonS — I agree — it’s obvious that unless we can clone those antibodies and mass produce them — that during the exponential expansion phase there will be more people needing the juice than providing it. But if we can do mass testing and find all the asymptomatic people who did not even know they were sick, this could be very useful.
And if we crush those case numbers down instead of feeding them up, plasma donations will help to ring-fence the last contacts. If we can supply antibodies to close contacts it is another tool to extinguish the virus.
60
Didn’t know we could clone them. That changes things.
30
We are so sorry about the 125,000 Aussies who
have passed due to the Coronavirus…wait hold on I am being told it is only 14. Still, please accept our deepest condolences, we will send help as soon as possible. America
27
and if the moment comes in three weeks when you need an ICU bed and a fearless doctor, we send our deepest condolences…
42
Meant to down vote on so called “America”. Hit Jo instead, oops. Please change your handle America.
00
That looks like a Chinese Communist Party activist’s false flag post.
What’s the membership fee these days in Renminbi?
30
Being paid to troll here
Pretending to be American !
10
The WHO does not care about health.It cares more about politics and defending China !
“The World Health Organisation has been heavily criticised for being too deferential towards China, and here we have another rather astonishing example.
Assistant Director-General Bruce Aylward was interviewed by a Hong Kong radio station. He refused to comment on the status of Taiwan – which has been excluded by the WHO, under pressure from China.
“Will the WHO reconsider Taiwan’s membership?” the reporter asked.
There was a long pause. Eventually, Dr Aylward claimed not to have heard the question.
“I’m sorry, I couldn’t hear your question, Yvonne,” he said.
“OK, let me repeat the question,” she said.
“No, that’s OK. Let’s move to another one then,” he interjected.
She did not move on, instead moving to politely rephrase her question. In response, Dr Aylward appeared to end the call.
The journalist called back.
“I just want to see if you can comment a bit on how Taiwan has done containing the virus so far,” she said.
“Well we’ve already talked about China,” Dr Aylward said.
“And you know, when you look across all the different areas of China, they’ve actually all done quite a good job.
“So with that, I’d like to thank you very much for inviting us to participate, and good luck as you go forward.”
Extraordinary.”
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-world-live-updates/live-coverage/baf3c04cedd3db409d1eb60e28366b6f
70
The corruption runs deep.
60
and wide throughout the world not just in China.
30
Drain the swamp , but there will always be crocodiles still lurking .
20
It’s becoming hard to know who to believe. There are a few You Tube clips showing that Funeral Homes in Wuhan are still disposing of thousands of bodies daily and also riots between citizens and riot police of two adjacent provinces in China (one of which is Hubei.)
Watching the Johns-Hopkins Worldometer daily updates on the progress of the virus, it becomes impossible to believe that China is recording deaths of only 4 or 5 a day. The tolls in places like Pakistan and Indonesia are likewise very hard to believe.
And here in Oz, poor old SloMo still hasn’t grasped the nettle! The only question is, “Is it his poor judgement or is he being given bad advice?”
50
A lot of the panic is due to the fear being pumped up by MSM and social media outlets on the internet, such as the suggestions of a lock down for 6-12 months. Such a length lock down would be catastrophic not just for our economies but also for society overall. Even the Great Depression didn’t have that sort of action. No one really knows where it will go but one thing is for sure. A continual escalation of fear will only make matters worse not better. That’s where I don’t envy the governments doing what they feel is necessary to control the pandemic. They just might end up throwing the baby out with the bathwater; only time will tell. I don’t have a clue as to the right sort of balance. We just have to hope our leaders have a reasonable grasp on the situation and are not making decisions that are too far from what is the right one, whatever that is.
40
Tourism was a full third of the NZ economy. Yes , I said was.
40
Possibly a bit part of Australia’s economy too, especially the education driven immigration path. However the startling figure is that 1,000,000 Australians go overseas every month, that’s a New Zealand every five months. And obviously they spend their money overseas. Perhaps instead of running “where the bloody hell are you” campaigns in the UK, we could run them at home?
40
Not so sure about that. WWII in Britain. Children sent to foster care in the country. Rations. Lights out. Sleeping in the underground. Curfew. Martial law. Tens of thousands of orphans. I think we are a little precious now, having had such freedom and peace and wealth for so long.
I can’t imagine what life is like in recently devastated war cities like Aleppo in Syria today. Barrel bombs from aircraft and Nazi sarin gas, 30x worse than cyanide. Or Beirut. And the people of Tripoli live in constant fear. Thank’s to Obama’s Arab Spring which destroyed many cities and achieved only misery and sorrow and devastation. I cannot see our inconvenient shutdown is comparable. Enjoy the break.
(It was amazing when Trump firebombed the last of Assad’s sarin gas by directing at least 25 cruise missiles onto a single reinforced hanger, destroying it at ultra high temperatures. They were warned and not a plane or person was hit, as far as we know. But the press never have anything good to say about Trump.)
Perhaps it was Obama’s undeniable first generation African muslim heritage which drove him to support and arm the Arabs in Northern Africa, the devastating muslim takeover of secular Egypt or Turkey in the name of democracy and freedom but no one has been held to account for it. Certainly not Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. History will not be so kind. And Erdogan is still ramping up the pressure on Greece and the EU to approve of his war of conquest in Syria.
70
PeterS, I disagree on the fear, it needs to be channeled. IF we use fear to motivate people to stay home and stop the spread, it’s useful. But blind fear with vague action plans that contradict each other and no timeframe, that feeds pointless anxiety.
If SlowMo and Hunt and Murphy hadn’t spent all of Feb saying We Are Prepared when they weren’t, and this is like the flu when it isn’t, and then changing their plan every five minutes in March the people would trust them and have confidence that they knew what was coming.
The three of them sold the daunting, unnecessary and ineffectual 6 month depression, while Taiwan and South Korea solved the problem instead.
72
Channelling of fear by making mostly public announcements creates more fear. It needs to be suppressed with real solutions not just talk. They are doing some things but too slowly and not enough. Trump was slow at first but he has quickly ramped his intentions. Now those who have lost their jobs would get an extra $600 per week for up to four months, on top of state unemployment benefits to make up for 100 percent of lost wages (with a cap I think of a very high level of salary). We have nothing so far that comes close. The more PM Morrison stalls on this the more that fear there will be. That’s not good.
30
You are still talking money Peter. Not real solutions to the real threat.
If people knew we could fix this much faster they would be motivated to solve this, bosses would be motivated to keep employees. Everyone could stay calmer on the economic front.
But Morrison has totally failed to convince the young and unemployed that they need to stay home to stop this spreading so they can keep their jobs.
Since he has created the long slow depression, yes, he needs to calm the economic fear, by firing up the viral fear, giving people a shorter faster solution and offering some short temporary small safety net.
20
Both are real and serious threats. One is bad enough. Two and it’s damn serious.
10
Fear is a relatively short term emotion.
Humans adapt very quickly when they come face to face with what-ever they fear.
It only be a few weeks before the majority of people accept the death rate (what ever it is) and carry on with their lives.
20
Short term, except when the fear turns to reality and 80 percent of the population becomes infected, which is what would happen if this was treated like a flu. Then you get hopeless fear.
00
Finally , anecdotal information from the herd , those who have had it , and tested positive.
“like a hangover for four days”.
So , you’ll notice it, but if you’re careful recovery in 10 -14 days.
But is it not time to put some serious hygiene barriers around our vulnerable population , now that we have confirmed community transmission by rest home workers, to residents?
This may be achievable.
Border controls , quarantine , and lock-down seem to have been beyond our capabilities.
30
People haven’t yet realised the locking down so far of businesses is worse than what happened during the Great Depression and major wars. Yet people are calling out for more lock downs for longer periods. OK then that’s fine but if the lock down are to last more than say a couple or so weeks our government has to step in and support everyone who has lost their jobs, and I don’t mean unemployment benefits. They are not enough. Utility bills still need to be paid. Food and other essentials. Mortgages. Private health. It’s no longer business as usual. All sectors now have to do their bit to help the rest. Team Australia. That might mean the government enforcing all living expense such as utility bills to be postponed at least in part for those who have lost their jobs, and those who are yet to lose their jobs. It could reach into the millions of people but we can’t have all these people keep paying bills and the like while they have lost their source of incomes. The unemployment benefit is simply not anywhere near enough for most of those people. Trump understand that and has acted accordingly. How come PM Morrison doesn’t?
50
I’d agree if we need 6 months of locking down. But they should have solved the root cause of the problem — the virus — first before they tried to “save us with money”.
They worried about the economy first and the virus second. A doomed approach from the start.
But yes, given the hole we are in, we need Helicopter-Lowe to spread the inflationary joy far and wide. Keep people in their jobs. Keep the HR structures in place. And then this whole depression will lift as quick as it fell, if we just get serious about the actual real threat to the economy which are the tiny bits of RNA we don’t want and should never have let in.
72
I asked farmerbraun jnr. what he thought had happened so far.
He said ” Border control non existent; quarantine abandoned , and lockdown just laughable . And MSM flaming the panic.”
I asked him when he thought the panic might start to subside .
He said ” When their annual leave is all used up”
Typical B. Eng.
Employers have asked those locked down to use up their annual leave in many cases. That would be about a month .
50
Yes, it’s taken three weeks for the government to figure out what a shut border is. They kept trying a version, failing, and then ramping it up. But they will get there. We just wish they didn’t kill people on the way …
20
In case you haven’t noticed we have two major crises. The economic one is just as important. It needs to be managed carefully. Trump and other world leaders understand it and are acting as best they can under the circumstances. PM Morrison is slow but I do hope he will shortly come out and follow suit.
If we do find a cure and/or vaccine quickly enough all should be fine on the pandemic front but the economy will still be in ruins and we need to get back into business to avoid a greater depression than the Great Depression. That means all hands on deck. It also means scrapping the emissions reduction nonsense. China certainly isn’t suddenly going to be the “nice guy” and stopping the building of all coal fired reactors. Soem might be postponed due to the economic crisis. As soon as their economy starts to pick up and grow again they will resume building those they might have postponed, and more. Meanwhile we as a nation are still arguing whether we should close down our existing coal fired power stations and not build new ones. Give me a break!
40
The government is providing money to anyone who needs it to buy food. Banks have given up to 6 month holiday on mortgage payments. The essential services will all be run on helicopter money as required. Forget bills. If someone comes to the door to collect money they are in breach of isolation; call the police.
The only priority for those not providing essential services and supplies is to survive by staying nourished and isolated so they are not donating their body to the virus to perpetuate its survival.
Testing is clearly the key to eliminating stay-at-home isolation and Australia has a long way to go before it can offer safe and reliable testing. Germany has done very well with testing but that could be falling apart as number of positives climb. It is a massive load to test the entire population in a few weeks.
40
Forget bills? I wish it were that easy and simple. It ain’t in the real world.
50
We are not in the real world. We are all living a zombie existence. Those in essential roles are working harder than ever without much rest. Those in isolation are being numbed by Netflix or reruns of footy matches. All zombies, just holding out for the real world to begin again.
40
Forget bills – Then forget the businesses that sent them – Forget the people those businesses employ.
Just hope that no one ‘forgets’ to pay your employers bills.
20
Top-20 of the percent who have died:
(Countries with less than 500 cases and below 2.5% died were excluded.)
% Died | Country | Total Cases
10.84 … Italy … 92,472 (Italy’s died % continues to rise at ~0.25% /day)
8.83 … Indonesia … 1,155
8.30 … Iraq … 506
8.17 … Spain … 73,235
7.11 … Iran … 35,408
6.55 … Netherlands … 9,762
6.33 … Philippines … 1,075
6.25 … Egypt … 576
6.16 … France … 37,575
5.96 … UK … 17,089
There are two distinct groups here where there’s a sudden ~2.1% jump above the ~3.8 % died level, which seems to be a percentage at which the hospitals become fully overwhelmed and the % died suddenly jumps higher. Most hospitals in the worst affected areas of this upper-group of countries have already lost hospital capacity so many more deaths occur outside of the hospitals without treatment (in the worst affected parts of the country that is).
3.89 … Dominican Republic … 719
3.86 … Belgium … 9,134
3.07 … Japan … 1,693
3.05 … Sweden … 3,447
3.02 … Greece … 1,061
2.95 … Denmark … 2,201
2.92 … Brazil … 3,904
2.63 … Ecuador … 1,823
2.55 … Argentina … 745
2.55 … Romania … 1,452
There is much US media talk about the US being the new virus “epicenter”, but the % died shows that’s not the case (as yet). That unfortunate status belongs to Western Europe, South East Asia, and South America. Except for local exceptions, US hospitals have barely begun to be stressed but that will change fast in New York from now. But growing isolation policies will slow it in the rest of USA.
But even as that develops Europe will continue to be the bigger spectacle, because the current 1.132 died curve indicates they’re less than two weeks away from mass-graves dug and filled every day at an increasingly frenetic rate. These will emerge right across Western Europe. On 1st of April (4 days from now) deaths reach 6,000 per day, with the bulk occurring in Europe, but only 7 days after that it hits 12,500 deaths per day, with about ¾ of those occurring in Europe. Their crematoriums will not cope after that, mass graves will become necessary.
The US will begin to catch Europe after that occurs so actions right now will change the path toward that result more than any action later ever can.
52
Frightening.
We desperately need those antibody tests to figure out how many people were infected.
71
Scary numbers yes, and those numbers are against total cases. Italy for instance…
97,689 infected
10,779 dead
13,030 cured
3,906. Serious/critical
About 40,000 yet to reach the mean critical care time. We are looking at a likely CFR in Italy of 18 to 20 percent. Minus of course all the never tested but infected, but plus who knows how many dead, but never checked – rumors of nursing home deaths, etc… ( Not like China and I have not seen comparisons of such deaths to February March of 2019)
10
Do you know any of these people personally,do you know anything of their personal health status or age,with all due respect how can any of the stats you have provided regardless of source be meaningful in anyway.Please enlighten me in case im not using sound logic.
25
This link provides meaningful statistics:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html
They are just a simple body count, which is quite accurate when supplied from hospitals. It will become less accurate as more armed forces are involved in disposing of bodies. Some are now not making their way into hospitals in Europe. They are just being collected from homes by their troops.
US is an unfolding disaster. Only Washington State has been effective in slowing the rate of deaths, giving its healthcare system a chance.
30
“if the lock down are to last more than say a couple or so weeks our government has to step in and support everyone who has lost their jobs”
I have seen some of that in the US though I am not sure if it will be enough; The US government is suspending payments on student loans, some companies are suspending mortgage and rent payments and the US government passed a package to give working people some relief for missing paychecks and businesses some money to continue to pay their workers. I guess only time will tell if it is enough or if more will be needed.
10
True we are all guessing as to how much is enough. One thing is for sure though. We in Australia are not doing enough. I suspect though that might change this week. At least I hope so.
30
Bill is a software developer,not a doctor,that decided somewhere along the line that there are to many people on the planet,would not trust him as far as i could kick him,and yes as far as that other scumbag at WHO,he was a Marxist terrorist and is wanted for crimes against humanity in his own country,also not a doctor.
51
Numbers just got much bigger!
“Founder of US Judicial Watch launches 20 TRILLION U$D lawsuit against Communist China over its Virus”
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/founder-of-us-judicial-watch-launches-20-trillion-ud-lawsuit-against-communist-china-over-its-virus.html#comments
30
Hmmm. That’s the stuff by which wars are started.
00
Not, such law suits are ignored mostly. OTOH, letting a deadly virus run for two months, then letting 4 million people disperse all over, then blaming others while trying to extend mercantile grasp of foreign markets, and sending fake test kits, and rerouting medical supplies bought by other nations back to China, those actions can precipitated violent response, yet the world will refrain, but China may not.
20
I have an impression that in the western nations there is still a huge contingent of powerful people and supporting
media that are clinging on to their globalisation of everything principle. Others seem to have been so intent on pushing
this program that they are totally disorientated by this pandemic which actually requires national action. How can they
close borders and be true? The US media attacked Trump relentlessly for shutting the borders to China. That same media keeps
on with blanket statements that Trump has failed the nation, handling this virus; there is never a specific charge apart from
what he says – not how he has acted. The southern border closure is now never mentioned.
Italy is left to fry while Germany looks after itself very well. The EU has surely done itself
in when refusing aid to Italy, who is now receiving aid from China. Russia has sent in specialist units to decontaminate for
Spain. It’s interesting that the countries that the globalists and AGW people leave right alone (making it certain that
the aim is to cripple just the advanced West), are the very countries now assisting these EU countries.
My point is, handling the virus by many Western governments is made increasingly difficult because there is a huge political divide
in our societies. The loudest voices are still criticising official actions on the grounds of race, class and fairness to migrants, legal
and otherwise. Pelosi was more interested in financing her Green deal than passing Trump’s financing of the community. Cortez carries on
about Corporations (that employ the people) getting some financing. In Australia Albo is looking for division. Adern is looking for advantage.
In Australia, it appears people are so used to ignoring rules that impair their lifestyles at all that they go beaching, apparently too dumb
to realise that they make themselves great viral targets apart from becoming the means of eradicating their family seniors (60+). So
righteous are people of the West that we save foreigners off cruise ships and despite putting them in 5 star hotel accomodation for isolation
they grizzle and whine that its like inhumane imprisonment. Haven’t enough Australians been infected by travellers yet? These people obviously
don’t ‘get it’! Perhaps they need to see some of the bodies of those that die or are dying before the message gets through to brains used to
extreme comfort of the modern age.
Sorry. Bit of a rant – lot of. The point is, we in the west are carrying on as though its politics as usual. That must be creating huge tensions
in our decision makers. We are crafting our own demise unless the country unites completely to fight this bug as needs be so we can get people
back to work asap. I think 20 doctors coming back from a cruise and dispersing after being told they would be self isolating or quarantined, says
it all about national irresponsibilty. They should be fined heavily, given long suspensions of licence-to-practice. They have obviously forgotten
where their duty lies. If road misdemeanours required attendance at police lectures, these doctors need enforced attendance to lectures in medical ethics.
60
Were those 20 doctors Australian or South American?
Border farce.
30
I understand they are Australian who had a problem getting home after cruising to Antarctica.
60
In summary people who live in bubbles tend not to see the outside real world clearly.
10
An observation on the curves, especially Sweden. A few countries like SWeden are fatalistic and hope that social distancing is enough. Fundamentally they accept that everyone is going to get infected and they cannot stop that, but they can lower the rate of infection and so the load in the health system.
This is working.
Their curve is perfectly straight, so they have lowered it from 2.5 day to double to 4 days to double. To stop the infection is has to go horizontal, which it shows no sign of doing. So they will get what they want, a fully infected population with fewer dead people per thousand but not fewer dead people. And what then when everyone who was going to die is dead and everyone else is resistant? Life will go on.
This is held up as a model by Bjorn Llomberg and others, front page in the Australia. I see it as a model of incredible fatalism. As I wrote before, from the country with the highest suicide rate in the world. You can only think these things are related. They were independent in WWII and worked with both sides. It is quite a different place.
In our country, we value every life as precious and unnecessary suffering as unacceptable. It is a choice. I choose to kill the virus, not the other way around. I am glad to say most of the world agrees.
50
However they may be international pariahs for some time.
40
Sweden like Brazil must be on the list.
No travellers from them allowed entry
Unless they do supervised quarantine for 14 days
10
I note Norway, Finland, Malaysia are on straight lines now. South Korea is heading to flat. As is Kuwait.
Japan is doubling every ten days.
What his means is that for 2 days to double you get 20 or three weeks to 1000x.
For ten days to double, you get 3 months to 1000x.
and some are buying time for treatment, an immunization and to avoid immediate overloading, which will come.
I am hoping for extermination, a flat curve. And I do not see why an island country with the borders closed and people isolated cannot achieve it in three weeks.
If only people would stop coming home and bringing it with them.
60
And it must the first time South Korea loves having an impenetrable border, turning the country into an island. Irony.
50
How come South Korea was heavily testing so early when we and the USA didn’t seem to even have testing kits on hand.
Did we even have a test until long after this virus got going, and the one we actually started with took days to get
results? It at least says something for the microbiologists that they have got that period down to a few minutes.
Did South Korea have a speedier test early? It would otherwise be difficult to have been as successful as they seem
to have been as they chased down every known contact of positive testers. I see on a recent news program some clever
Australian bloke has developed a relatively quick finger prick test to determine the presence of antibodies to this virus.
If I recall correctly, it took a day or two to await results.
The other thing, it seems to be taking a while for those testing Hydroxychloroquin to make comment on apparent progress.
Being a ‘pod’ that’s a little disheartening. We are getting all the usual noises about ‘drug treatments are only a matter of
time away’, but one has heard it all before. Influenza has been around many, many years and no antiviral ‘penicillin’ equivalent
has turned up. Fingers crossed. That these matters are difficult is shown by the huge volume of funding thrown at them with
little result over many years.
The fact we accept huge death rates each year from the flu would indicate that there is a market
around the world for such drugs; all the companies would have to do is follow the seasons as we do with vaccines. Imagine also
the pressure, and costs, such drugs would take off the Healthcare system each winter. Maybe the quiet acceptance of those deaths
takes the incentive from the drug companies to develop such drugs continuously. For viruses it may be more difficult to find a
drug that doesn’t harm the host cellular mechanisms to a broad and lethal extent. It would appear that the Hydroxychlor. and zinc
story was more fortuitous than can be attained by targetted human endeavour.!?
30
So no positivity or balance anymore, Jo?
Lately, you’re sounding no better than the CAGW crowd.
Bit disappointing.
13
Since I’m calling for this to be over in a shorter and sharper fashion that most and saying we can get rid of this you could accuse me of being an unstoppable optimist.
if you think I sound like the CAGW guys, just bring in that data and those observations. I’m all ears…
Would love to see stats on power use in China, container ships, photos of normal life there.
Keen to hear interviews with ICU docs in Italy Spain and France who say that things are OK, That cures work, and that they are saving most people and have enough equipment.
And if draconian shut downs are working and stopping the exponential curves suggesting the total death rate will be low, that just shows I was right all along and we should have done it sooner.
Over to you…
40
Jo, you’re calling for extreme Government measures to be invoked, exactly the same as the CAGW crowd.
If you want to look at data, have a look at Malaria data and tell me COVID-19 is still an actual problem. Treatments and vaccines will be developed for COVID-19 well before it kills as many as Malaria did in 2003, 2004 and 2005 (not collectively, each of these years).
China is, and will always be, China. The CCP possibly purposely released the disease and are definitely covering up the extent of deaths in China. I don’t deny that.
I’m for measures to reduce risk, but normally (with regards to climate change anyway), you have posts about why a calm approach is necessary – or even that no action is required (not that that is suitable in this situation). Haven’t seen any positivity about COVID-19, in your headlines at least. Most of them make me not want to read these days due to alarmist titles. Hence my comment about acting like the CAGW crowd.
I have been a fan for a number of years and have liked your levelheadedness over that time, just not seeing it lately. Hope to get what I related to back soon.
Good news is, the number of new cases in Aus seems to be reducing, will need a couple more days to confirm but things are looking positive there.
20
Cameron you have not read any of Jo’s threads or comments on the virus have you ?
I will give you something though for not using the usual ” it’s just a flu” meme and you’ve come up with malaria as a comparison.
When was the last time no ICU beds were available in Italy because of malaria , what about Spain etc etc ?
Forgive me if I’m wrong but there is a medicine for malaria and as it happens they think it may reduce the effects of the virus but that’s still being tested .
Yes Malaria kills a lot of people in any given year no argument but not all of them in just a month or two .
Listen to the doctors from Italy , Spain and The UK when they say this is something new and horrific .
Also you can’t catch malaria from touching an infected surface now can you ?
30
No, you can’t catch malaria from touching a surface, you have to be in a country where mosquitoes continually spread it. None of which are first world countries, so who cares, right? You won’t die from it. Does that sound familiar? Pretty much all the bagging of 20-30 year olds flaunting social distancing laws is about them not understanding it’s not them who will die.
You say Malaria “kills a lot of people in any given year”, how about EVERY given year? More than 100 million people have died from malaria since 1990 and countless more before that. Who cares if a single month is better or worse, it’s the total that matters.
You say COVID-19 is a big problem, tell that to the 70 million mums who’s children died from malaria before they reached the age of 5 in the last 30 years (before that, who knows how many).
20
If only the mortality rate of the virus could be lessened with DDT ?
00
Is that relevant?
01
Well ! Since you asked , those figures you quote for deaths caused by Malaria according to this report could have been reduced by up to 90% if only they had of kept spraying this insecticide.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1570869/
20
Yeah, and there’s no negative press when it comes to DDT, is there?
12
Is that your version of ” ner ner , ner ner ner ?
00
?
Do you actually have something to say or just snide comments?
10
Oh forgive me I thought you were flipping off the question which is why I asked .
Inferring there is negative press about DDT means what exactly ?
You give an apples for oranges analogy about Malaria and the virus but I point out up to 90% of those deaths from malaria could have been prevented with the use of DDT .
Are you saying we shouldn’t use anything that gets negative press or shouldn’t talk about subjects that get negative press or the fact that the vast majority of those deaths were preventable but you don’t agree ?
20
Hmm, I’ll continue this conversation if you tell me why DDT was banned AND why it shouldn’t have been – with references.
00
Robert,
Perhaps his comment about DDT was meant to point out that the politics of ddt has seen the withholding of a scientifically legitimate action that has cost millions of lives.
There’s a similarity with the CV19 problem in that there’s a vast amount of political waffle going on that’s delaying and preventing useful action being implemented.
We can shut down the CV19 threat AND preserve our businesses, industry and society to come out the other side.
Problem is politicians only look at the Headlines and don’t want the details to confuse them.
They will survive no matter what.
The political approach to this is to have a bidding war between Ms. Adern, Ms. Berejiklian And Dan the Man to see who can come down hardest on the Covid.
To them collateral damage from poorly applied remedies is of no real concern.
KK
30
It was banned because of dodgy science , I gave you a link which explains the ins and outs of it and there is troves of info out there .
The haz data sheet gives a good indication of the dodgy science and one of our regular CAGW believers had a copy in his blog – Gee Aye .
No one here is saying Malaria is not a cause of massive numbers of deaths every year .
I’m saying it’s a false equivalence to compare it to Corona virus .
10
Robert, the link provided says why DDT was a good thing, I also asked why it wasn’t (with references).
It’s a false equivalence only because Corona virus is a first world problem, not a third world problem.
Keith, if you have something to say about my comments, direct them to me, not Robert.
01
Don’t know what’s hard about typing DDT into your browser but try wiki for a green perspective.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT
00
Cameron says”
“Keith, if you have something to say about my comments, direct them to me, not Robert”.
Thank you so much.
Bizarre.
00
And no, I haven’t read Jo’s threads because the headlines have been overly dramatic, same as the main stream media about global warming. That was part of my point.
I do hope that changes soon.
22
So if you haven’t read any of the hosts articles your basing your opinion on what exactly?
20
Fear promoting titles, same as the main stream media I won’t read for the same reason.
12
Again we have an example of ideology versus science .
10
Actually, no. As I mentioned, the number of new cases has been reducing over the last couple of days in Aus. Data is the basis of science and therefore the reduction in new cases should be paramount to science. Unfortunately, that is not the case and ideology is taking over and spreading fear. I’m not saying we have definitely turned and less daily new infections are a given, as I mentioned earlier, it needs a few more days to be certain, but it looks promising. The data outstrips ideology.
11
So tell me Cameron. IF, hypothetically, there was a mass pandemic coming involving potentially thousands of deaths, which was easily avoidable, what kind of headlines would be appropriate?
Or — are mass pandemics impossible? (I’m genuine here, not sarcastic).
If there was a mass pandemic coming, how would it look different to this?
32
Does the data include every death in China and Iran ?
00
“[T]housands of deaths”? I just said over 100 million have died from malaria since 1990 including more than 70 million infants. How is “thousands” even worth a headline when 100 million is not?
I’m looking for perspective. Headlines should reflect this.
When a pandemic does rival a disease like malaria, and is a mass pandemic, I’ll rethink my position.
11
Cameron, You want millions. Get ready to rethink — Seven billion on Earth have no immunity. There is no vaccine, and no definitive treatment.
Conservatively assuming a 1% fatality rate with an attack rate of 60% (which some estimate will be 80%) that means 42 million people die in the first wave.
But regions like Hubei, Iran, Italy are seeing death rates of 5% as their hospitals are swamped. That’s likely to be the mortality rate in Africa, Indonesia, and maybe India if they don’t clamp down with major quarantines. (And how can high density poor nations do that anyway?)
The virus spreads two or three times as fast as influenza with an Ro of 3+, has a fatality rate that is at least 5 times worse than influenza (thats the South Korean most optimistic stat) but in most countries the fatality rate appears to be from 1 – 5% depending on whether their hospitals get overwhelmed. And even the richest countries on Earth will be overwhelmed if we don’t lock down.
So the tally without major quarantine could easily be 40m to 200m, and that’s not counting collateral damage of all the cancer patients who didn’t get treatment, or stroke patients, suicides, etc etc.
With a hard lockdown we will keep numbers much much lower. I’m optimistic we will develop treatments that work within months. We will beat this in the West, but I despair for the poor nations. we could top the 30 year total accumulated death toll from malaria.
My headlines have been conservative. This is likely the worst pandemic you or I will face in our lifetimes.
For one month the second largest economy in the world, a brutal regime not known for caring about it’s own citizens lost 80% of its economy to this virus. You’ve been missing the biggest story this century.
20
And don’t mistake the meaning of the big numbers. That’s what would have happened if this virus arrived in 1918. Will it happen now? Depends.
We in the West will put a lid on this fast now that our leaders finally realize what a bomb it is. But unless we help Africa and the rest, millions could die in the third world.
30
Well, we’ll see. I’ll be sure to apologise if it gets that bad (that’s not likely though, maybe in 1918, not in 2020). Till then, would be nice to see something other than doom and gloom, have had enough of that from the CAGW crowd.
01
Well, we’ll see. I’ll be sure to apologise if it gets that bad.
So, if it doesn’t get that bad, but the world either took major quarantine action or developed a treatment, does that make me right, or you?
10
“So, if it doesn’t get that bad, but the world either took major quarantine action or developed a treatment, does that make me right, or you?”
Don’t know Jo. Guess we’ll have to wait for a full analysis of the whole situation (could take years), what is coming out now is just speculation – including what you are promoting.
00
Cameron, your relativity’s are wrong. Yes, malarial losses are high and the world has assisted in trying to control it for a century. And African governance bears a lot of blame as it is seemingly corrupt in manny
Nations with overwhelming wealth in a few and extreme poverty in the many. However, that doesn’t make
Malaria an index as though no other epidemic is unimportant and can run free..
COVID-19 if we followed your thinking and did little has been postulated to cost a million lives in its first
run, just in the USA. Then add the rest of deaths throughout the world to that under the same conditions.
Then, this virus mutates, and if you had read the paper that is put up on this blog today you will realise
even if we get a vaccine inside 2 years we will likely have this devastation repeated and maybe again after that as it is expected this will be seasonal and annual.
You might also be more concerned if you read a history, in the WEST AUSTRALIAN this weekend , on
the origin of this virus. The most interesting part of it was most of the original casualties were not
elderly. They were very much middle aged – a 30yo, a 35yo, a Chinese student and his mother. The Chinese doctor that tried to expose the epidemic in China didn’t look too old either. Consequently, this virus is not
too far behind malaria in its potential for deaths. That’s why it has to be fought.
20
Doc, quite simply, what makes you sure the WEST AUSTRALIAN has all the answers? I could argue some of your other points but frankly, pfft.
01
This is a story on the cremation urns in Wuhan:
https://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-raising-more-questions-about-chinas-tally/
Estimate of the number of urns puts into question the official death toll in China.
20
Yeah … looks like they took a naught off the totals.
30
Breaking:
Man in CV quarantine in India tears off his clothes and runs naked into street biting a woman in neck who then later died.
28 Weeks Later Rage Virus?
Now that would be a cause for real panic!
11
On related subjects, this contagion created and released and hidden by the Communist government in China may yet backfire on them. Follow the Belt and Road and you will find catastrophe. And the military dictatorships reliant on one man, say Maduro or Kim Jong Un or the Ayatollah or Castro’s brother, the people will die in their hundreds of thousands because of inaction. And there will be unstoppable revolution. Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, even Zimbabwe, Turkey.
And in China we may wake up one morning and find President Xi has disappeared on extended vacation. It’s what happens. If Boris Johnson and six US senators can catch it, so can the upper echelons in the countries of oppression, where people are treated as disposable. You can be sure in the US that Hollywood are keeping away from the deplorables, except it is far more likely to be found in the high flying Hollywood set. We will see. Pandemics bring change.
41
‘ … this contagion created and released and hidden by the Communist government in China may yet backfire on them.’
That is a fabrication without foundation and I’m shocked by your suggestion, this is not a conspiracy to bring down the West. Children maybe spreading the virus and we’ll have to keep them at a distance.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077402/new-chinese-research-may-point-possible-role-children
On a related topic … bats worldwide need to be exterminated.
00
If obesity is a significant comorbidity factor then the U.S. figures could be quite startling.
But again , it will be some months before good data is available.
10
Good point, but probably not significant unless they have diabetes.
00
And institutional change. Ten Trillion dollars wasted on preventing warming, opening the borders, accepting people without medical checks or any checks.
The UN, EU, WHO will all be in for massive change if not being disbanded as worse than useless. Uncaring bureaucrats looking after themselves and their massive salaries while watching Rome burn.
How much did the UN spend on the imminent threat of pandemic? And who was in denial the longest, especially when warned repeatedly by Taiwan.
And how much help was the EU, demanding the borders stay open and chastising Trump for closing US flights from the EU? And who is criticising Trump for calling a virus from Wuhan the Wuhan virus?
Whether in conflict or in peace, we have finally seen the use of the UN and WHO when put to the test. They have failed us. What now the trillions of dollars for their friends and all those windmills and solar panels? How much use are they in a real and predictable crisis? None whatsoever. Fire the lot of them.
31
And how much use are the 5,000 people in the CSIRO? They could assign 350 people to trying to prove Climate Change. How many were working on pandemics?
Privatize them all. It worked for the CSL. And if it fails, what exactly have we lost?
51
Good point.
The CSIRO was designed to have a plan of action ready for this.
What have they been doing?
41
TdeF,
Be Fair.
It’s the 98% of those in UN, EU and WHO who give the other 2% a bad name.
10
If the UN was a garden one would say it’s postmature, needs pulling out and start again as the third iteration of a global forum body.
It’s an organisation that’s become too politically twisted, expensive and inefficient. It’s been around too long and with all nations having
an equal vote it has been caught up in manipulative world politics. It’s committees are screwed and used eg Human Rights Commissions, the
climate fiasco, etc. It is held up primarily by the USA funding which is slowly being reduced (fast?) because it has become politicised and
very antiwestern. It is well past time to face demolition – like many other ‘world’ organisations which are given too loud a voice in
national affairs.
It is one thing to have organisations at which nations can talk to each other. It’s totally anathema – but loved by globalists –
when such organisations move on to seeing themselves, not as organisations where combative nations can talk first before shooting at each other,
but as overseeing, potentially, (western?) world governments. No nation – unless like Australia where External Affairs powers, verified by power seeking
politicians can over ride the public wishes – has voted to grant the UN undemocratic power over the way it is run.
‘We don’t want a global health system. We just need sovereign borders.’ WE don’t need the UN; it is an overall risk to those borders.
It needs eradication and a new body formed for limited years, where nations can talk, organise fundamental assistance for developing nations
and assemble knowledge for all. Like the EU, it’s time these organisations were forced back to serving the fundamental principles for which they
were created. They must be dumped again as soon as they become more interested in pursuits of power rather than obeying those principles for existence.
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The UN is behaving like a virus invading and controlling governments and spawning clones like the IPCC, WHO and more. It needs cleaning out and a charter which does not give the permanent staff the idea that the UN is a world government. Ditto for the EU government who have their own laws which everyone has to obey and who want their own supra national army to fight the enemy, Russia and America.
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I do not know if this has been posted on this blog or as a subpost
FYI
Alledgedly.
After attending a conference, approx 30-33 doctors arrived in Australia on a flight from overseas and did a bolt before they could be subjected to the new mandatory hotel self isolation requirement or be tested.
Apparently they believe that covid-19 does not infect Australian doctors…. or be able to be transmitted by them.
Is this allegation true, I don’t know.
I do know that Police resources have been employed to track down their movements and locations since arrival.
link below:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163143/Now-doctors-ignoring-quarantine-orders-Medics-cruise-jump-flight.html
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Arrogant Medical DUMBNUTS
Chris Higgins did this 3 weeks ago in Toorak
Arrived back from the USA with mild symptoms
And went to work in his practice for 4 days
Before being tested positive.
APRA should deregister them immediately
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Well it’s slumber time for essential people in Godzone , but I simply had to pop back to share this gem.
The Fabulous Princes Jacinda has just decreed that Halal butcheries are an essential service.
The punters reckon she should be sent off.
Fair go ref!!
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A U A.
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We don’t want a global health system. We just need sovereign borders.
Amen Jo.
It’s funny how bloated and corrupt bureaucracies hungry for more power all seem to FAIL UPWARDS !!
Not only should he resign, but the nations of the world should form an official Open Source information sharing platform for tracking pandemics; the information available from the WHO is almost laughable, it’s like reading a generic pamphlet for basic people – which is to be expected on the front-end – but there’s literally no detailed information available.
Sovereignty and preparedness are all that we can do to protect ourselves in a future scenario.
If every household was issued an emergency N95 mask pack for pandemics, every school and Uni mandated to store a strategic reserve, and the Post Offices were prepared to top up the demand during an official WARNING of an official pandemic, the government could issue a MANDATORY mask wearing order early in a pandemic and the police could be given power to fine people for not wearing them when in public.
This alone could at least halve the rate of transmissions while a more thorough testing and assessment process kicks into gear.
And if we have false alarms? Who cares … we’ll just write them down as drills and there will be very, very small impact to the economy.
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The response here in the Adelaide Hill is bizarre.
I have had face masks since early Feb.
I started using them this past week
And after Jo’s post on Friday
I have posted on three Facebook groups
About the need to wear face masks when we go out
For essential supplies
I have met with scepticism and even hostility.
Folks here seem to think they have the right to NOT wear masks
And no obligation to protect others around us
By preventing infection.
At times I’ve felt depressed about it.
What to do ?
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I’ve worn mine too. Sole person in the shop. Goggles too.
Wear a white lab coaty long shirt and semi professional work wear. Pretend you are a medical lab worker out for lunch. Nod and smile and know that no one will recognise you…
Quietly suggest they will help the front line workers if they wear a mask too.
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Actually, I have a lab coat (not from a lab, but from the protest at the UN in Bali). I’ll wear that next time… :- )
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Excellent idea Jo !
Will do !
🙂
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There is a few people wearing masks around town Bill .
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I haven’t read all the posts above but I’m coming to conclusion that somethings isn’t right about what is pushed on MSM regarding the true situation on the ground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsWY5NMuCPg
I found this video very interesting, I’d appreciate constructive comments.
Below is the EuroMomo mortality rates.
https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/images/Pooled-number.png
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Apart from the political stance that is expressed at the end of the video in the first link: many of the arguments presented by the medical specialist are valid in themselves to bring forward, and to pander on their validity, to try for a more general perspective. For me that is. As they were swirling in my head already for some time now even long before seeing this video. How come I wonder? Well, there you have it, the “cry wolf” effect of the phony climate scare mongering in full operation…
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Jurgen,
Thanks for your comments. I’m naturally suspicious also. We’ve seen a few mass psychological operations in the last 2 decades. Although, medical issues can be held separately to political issues, they seem to be unfolding now at the same time.
I’m not sure about what is really happening but it seems that something just doesn’t look right. I’m not a biologist or doctor so I can’t really get involved in the minutiae of epidemiological science. But from the perspective of human behavior and the surrounding issues of what I see going on while this ‘event’ coincides with the other ‘event’ I’m suspicious.
Cheers
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One more thing, how could it be possibly known that all the deaths being reported in the media and included on official lists are due to Cov19?
Surely that would take more time to establish? Could the figures be altered/misrepresented like the official temp. record?
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Yes that problem is being considered by various persons, but not in the media generally.
I have several theories for this. One is that the medical approach to “play safe” has taken over because of the panic. This approach works in a hospital. It doesn’t work in the real world. You see now an effort to apply a medical regime to the whole world. This regime may be functional within the confines of a hospital, it will be devastating when forcefully applied to the outside world. It is just a hopeless impossible scenario even from a medical perspective, but is sure to create economic and social chaos. So I am sure politicians will have no option to but steer back. This is what I expect to see in the near future.
Another theory is about the “self fulfilling prophecy” effect that may be at work here.
There are differences of opinion whether or not scare-tactics are deliberately applied to realize certain political or commercial goals. In general it is accepted that say Bernays Propaganda describes tactics that are being used in the real world. The expression of the different opinions are to be expected and are “part of the game” as of course there will be denial by the parties that use these tactics.
So I take the existence and application of these tactics for granted. I am proposing a phenomenon I am wondering may exist as a consequence of these tactics, when applied on a bigger scale. It is accepted by many that “climate scare tactics” have been applied intensely and systematical over a long period on a universal scale by certain individuals and groups, to the extend that it has ingrained ideas of a non-existing phenomenon into a whole generation. For the perpetrators this looks like a big success. But once this “culture of fear” is firmly rooted, its disadvantage and devastating contra-productivity becomes clear. This is what I propose may be happening today with this corona pandemic.
As the blueprint how to act and think about a perceived looming disaster is deeply ingrained in a population, it has created hypersensitivity and reflexive action-response towards any phenomenon. To a ridiculous extend. This is well observable with the climate fear culture, as any negative phenomenon is easily perceived to be a confirmation of the predicted doom.
The self fulfilling prophecy dynamics are well known and accepted. So it is not a far stretch to suppose this may happen as a consequence of the culture of climate fear. In absence of the real climate disaster, the whole machinery constructed to deal with a disaster-that-is-not-there grabs any substitute phenomenon to fill the gap. It needs a disaster to survive. It is meticulously created to deal with a dangerous enemy. So in the absence of this enemy it creates one.
Far-fetched? Isn’t this phenomenon clearly visible with say war-mongering to satisfy the war machine?
I don’t know exactly the ins and outs of the corona crisis of course. It is all too recent. But there are enough contradictory signals to wonder whether it may be aggregated and inflated by the existing culture of fear. In any case, whether the theory holds or not, it is time to start dismantling this culture to get rid of its negative effects.
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Thanks for your reply, Jurgen. I’ve been thinking about something similar.
Yesterday I was looking a series of photos from the UK Daily Mail on line of Elmhurst hospital in NY these coincided with a report of the exponential rising death toll due to Covid-19 in NY.
The 8 or so pictures and a short video showed several refrigerated trucks backed up against the back of the hospital. Entrances and exits cordoned off with temp fencing and tent like material etc. The captions claimed that they were for the excessive number of bodies and that normal protocol has been overwhelmed. etc etc The refrigerated units were unhitched from the prime mover, parked and left. There were say 6 of these units in a tightly arranged line at the hospital rear exits and utility and service entrances/exits.
Looking at them and the lack of actual activity in the photos and video, the people in the photos – staff and military types appeared to be absent the drama of such a situation. It looked as if they were going about a daily routine with no alarm, some no masks, some just being casual like. To me it seemed like there was something wrong that I couldn’t put my finger on.
It occurred to me that it looked like a simulation. As if a simulation exercise was being carried out. Hardware seemed to be in place and the elaborate fencing with all the things you might expect but there was something absent – the drama of real deaths and bodies. Not that I’d need to see them in the photos but the people in the photos were nonchalant.
Thought this was an interesting perspective on how such a situation could be pulled off.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/manufactured-pandemic-testing-people-any-strain-coronavirus-not-specifically-covid-19/5707781
Could we be living through a global pandemic simulation claiming to be real?
The only thing I’m finding hard to fully account for is China’s role in such a simulation scenario. How does China fit into all this?
I know they have the same economic issues with insolvent mega banks that the west has as they are also part of the same financial system of money printing etc. so they could be willing to be involved in a global scam to prevent home revolution due to financial collapse. These things could be arranged via back channels with select politburo members and or they could have released a real virus there to start the ball rolling.
I’m not sure how to think about this whole thing but something is fishy.
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You think too much. Nice to meet you 🙂
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Thank you, Farmerbraun. Nice to meet you too.
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Am I in denial? – not accepting the the pictures, video’s and messages in the media and from the authorities for something real? My theory about the “culture of fear” might as well apply to myself and the skeptical community about the climate scare. As we are also in a way blueprinted in some form of defense. So a “culture of denial” may have risen as well in response, and I may very well be a part of that culture. I realize that possibility all the time. Human-the-social animal-wants to belong to a group – needs to belong to a group. So the antidote to this is, when you want to be well-informed, to always have an open mind, especially towards the people you don’t agree with at first sight.
As for the video of – I guess his name is Billy Six? – the situation shown at the hospitals – it might as well be a preparatory situation in anticipation, the silence-before the storm. This may also be the situation in New York you describe. As to be expected, the video is removed from You tube now.
Am I in denial? – not accepting the the pictures, video’s and messages in the media and from the authorities for something real? My theory about the “culture of fear” might as well apply to myself and the skeptical community about the climate scare. As we are also in a way blueprinted in some form of defense. So a “culture of denial” may have risen as well in response, and I may very well be a part of that culture. I realize that possibility all the time. Human-the-social animal-wants to belong to a group – needs to belong to a group. So the antidote to this is, when you want to be well-informed, to always have an open mind, especially towards the people you don’t agree with at first sight.
As for the video of – I guess his name is Billy Six? – the situation shown at the hospitals – it might as well be a preparatory situation in anticipation, the silence-before the storm. This may also be the situation in New York you describe. As to be expected, the video is removed from You tube now.
My stance is rooted in the observation that one way or another – because of the social instinct of humans, because of the kind of virus it is – it is going to spread the world over. And at the same time no effective treatment for the serious cases available for a pretty long while. For me this is a given. And at least – even if this would only be just “another theory” – the consequences of this realistic possibility are so far-reaching that in my opinion it has to be included in the decisions of the authorities. All the time.
As for the medical regime in hospitals. This regime is geared towards individual treatment. Isolation is exceptionally urgent in this regime. This regime it is very dangerous when forcefully applied to the outside world because it will have devastating social and economic effects. Call it a side-effect if you like. It doesn’t change the severity.
Also, evidently, hospitals – and the more so i.c.’s – need a good and healthy economy to function properly.
Do we have real choices here in the long run?
My stance is rooted in the observation that one way or another – because of the social instinct of humans, because of the kind of virus it is – it is going to spread the world over. And at the same time no effective treatment for the serious cases available for a pretty long while. For me this is a given. And at least – even if this would only be just “another theory” – the consequences of this realistic possibility are so far-reaching that in my opinion it has to be included in the decisions of the authorities. All the time.
As for the medical regime in hospitals. This regime is geared towards individual treatment. Isolation is exceptionally urgent in this regime. This regime it is very dangerous when forcefully applied to the outside world because it will have devastating social and economic effects. Call it a side-effect if you like. It doesn’t change the severity.
Also, evidently, hospitals – and the more so i.c.’s – need a good and healthy economy to function properly.
Do we have real choices here in the long run?
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This text got garbled while posting, don’t know why. Lot of duplication. But all the pieces are there.
Guess it is more busy that usual in cyberspace…
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It seems that citizen journalists are working over-time.
What do you think about the thesis expressed in this video?
https://youtu.be/hdBt-kaIsOs
In a psy-op war the “true believers” are vulnerable but so are the reflexive sceptics.
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Agreed, some valuable insight there Jurgen.
It is a given various political teams are using this for their own political purpose. That’s true of both sides. Tick Tick Tick.
As always, trying to analyze the situation via ad homs and argument from authority will never get to the truth but it will be used by both sides to confirm their own biases. But one side is closer to the truth on this than other, and there is a form of political-ideological denial going on.
That’s why I’ve relied on observations of illness, mass studies, cross checked with anecdotes and individual stories and checked against what I know about viruses and our immune system. That’s why I could easily predict both death, disease the pandemonium coming in response and why it is easy to see that some experts have misjudged this, but most front line workers are telling the same stories over and over.
I disagree in part though — we can apply isolation to the whole population. We can’t do it at the same level as in a hospital, but nor should we panic at the thought of a few weeks unplanned holiday at home. It isn’t the end of the world. Just like it wasn’t the end of hte world to stop the flights. Most said that was impossible, but that was just a mindset. We did it — but too late to be as useful as it could have been.
And we will find a treatment — maybe a vaccine, or maybe not — but we will find ways to make this something we can live with. It will be much faster than the hunt was with AIDS.
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>> Boris: “What do you think about the thesis expressed in this video?
https://youtu.be/hdBt-kaIsOs “
Looked at it. There is a parallel with the “Mediziner gegen Medien” video van Billy Six. I now can better understand this video, it’s part of #FilmYourHospital. I am not active on Twitter nor look there a lot. But I think both she and Billy Six have a right to investigate and express an opinion. Nobody can deny the scary similarities between a military regime and the medical regime needed to contain a contagious virus. So every reason to be vigilant. As for her thesis, in the end to prove or disprove, you have to be just as critical towards yourself as towards others. Be alert for the confirmation bias, etc. On the “conflict of interest” side she seems to be spot on. About this “empty spaces” argument (also in Billy Six) I am very hesitant. Potential corona-patients will be isolated and can not be easily spotted in public surroundings. In my country doctors are calling for the public to “please keep coming to our hospitals for any first-aid emergencies” as it seems people are avoiding hospitals out of fear for contagion. It’s a complicated situation.
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Thanks, Jurgen.
I appreciate your comments.
Of course I’m sceptical, of what I see in the media organs. But I don’t discount the idea that the media organs of power wouldn’t propagate a lie so big that a sane well integrated human being would believe it for no other reason than it’s ‘too big a lie’ and that it would never fly.
Human psychology at its extremes can be very vulnerable. Of course that vulnerability can apply to all of us, including me.
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>> Boris April 3, 2020 at 6:14 am
I also don’t discount that idea. History shows that trick has been exploited, and also today still is being exploited. Once you take the red pill, you become very aware of that. Sometimes this knowledge becomes a burden, but it also gives a lot of insight and in the end more freedom to make better choices. I am thinking now of Neo at the end of the first Matrix movie. He jumps up and flies high in the sky… inside The Matrix. He can do that, because he became fully aware.
Thanks for the links you gave earlier.
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Event 201
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/
Statement about nCoV and our pandemic exercise
In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted a pandemic tabletop exercise called Event 201 with partners, the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/newsroom/center-news/2020-01-24-Statement-of-Clarification-Event201.html
Event 201 Videos
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/videos.html
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How we must respond to the coronavirus pandemic | Bill Gates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8fIjxicoo&feature=youtu.be
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Be it resolved, we are making high-stakes decisions about the COVID-19 pandemic without reliable data
Guests
John Ioannidis
Sten Vermund
https://munkdebates.com/podcast/covid-19
01
Brent.
It’s a moment in life when we have to act now. We have enough data to know that a few weeks of lockdown til we get better data is 100 x better than waiting to act, letting this ghastly infection spread, and then having a far bigger and harder job to stop it later.
Sometimes life throws these situations at us. Even I am surprised that Ioannidis gets this so wrong. He shows this might not be as bad as we think, but also that this might be terrible and then expects us to say “lets wait to find out first?”
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Hi Jo,
Both Climate Science and Epidemics would be classified by Jerome Ravetz as “Post-Normal Science”.
Ravetz in article I linked references UK FMD 2001 as example
Post audit of that by Kitching et al is linked below
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/#comment-2947452
I’m not sure how this came about, however after Climategate Jerome Ravetz made an appearance at WUWT to tout his ideas of “Post Normal” Science. He was trying to convince people that his idea of PNS was solution to problems revealed by Climategate. NO..the problem is that Climate Sceance IS Post-Normal Science.
Now his ideas are so foreign to those who haven’t kept up on this dark subversive ideology undermining what once was science, that he stood a good chance of fooling the people with his agenda.
Ravetz posits that the old puzzle solving approach of science is obsolete, and that a new approach is required, and actually that what he calls a pursuit of Truth is a “Category Mistake”
Ravetz posits that when “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent” a new approach is required and he calls the objective of all this “Quality”, which he seems unable to define to anyone’s satisfaction.
One useful outcome of this discussion that went on for multiple posts, is that it’s easy to identify disciplines corrupted by this Post Normal thinking because they define themselves as “Crisis Disciplines”.
Climate Change and the Death of Science
To pursue truth is to make a category mistake, so pursue the nebulous concept of ‘quality’ instead. So much for facts: scientists need to learn how to serve the craft of rhetoric. Even though it was concealed from those who constructed the models, the purpose of climate models was to provide the power of metaphor to political rhetoric
“…climate change models are a form of “seduction” ”
http://buythetruth.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/climate-change-and-the-death-of-science/
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Sorry Jo,
I replied to the wrong message. But continuing here
All the following were also examples of what Ravetz refers to as PNS
BSE was supposed to cause epidemic of vCJD.. Didn’t happen
Sars
Avian Flu
Swine Flu Wave I
Swine Flu Wave II
References linked below. Just scroll down
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/#comment-2948965
Note that Canada had first case of BSE “after” Anderson paper severely downgrading UK vCJD predictions. UK cases of BSE were huge. Yet US and Canada panicked with first Canadian BSE case
00
Brent,
Past epidemics tell us about past epidemics. They don’t prove “all epidemics” are false.
If there was a true pandemic among us, what would it look like?
Maybe mass burials, freezer trucks near hospitals, people falling in the street….
00
Hi Jo,
The essence of PNS as per Ravetz is that one is driving major public policy issues with Unvalidated models.
Kitching gives an excellent post audit in the FMD case and lessons should have been learned but have not been.
By the same token, the climate alarmists argue that realists cannot possibly positively exclude an apocalyptic scenario,therefore we should panic.
00
BSE/CJD was NEVER going to be an epidemic, it is no person to person transmissible!
The so called “swine” flus e.g. H5N1 mixes are just a WHEN not an IF .. they are coming!
One difference between the past and today for example the Spanish Flu was that in those days it took 6 weeks to move 1000 people across the globe .. now it takes 6 hrs to move 100,000 people .. each one a potential carrier … different world …
Again be thankful its not H5N1 or Marburg or Hanta etc … but again its WHEN not IF
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How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear
There is room for different interpretations of the data
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
00
Post-Normal Science and Epidemics
Dr. Jerry Ravetz – on Willis, epidemics, rough & tumble debate, and post normal science
“I believe that epidemics of any sort provide examples of PNS.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/12/dr-jerry-ravetz-on-willis-epidemics-rough-tumble-debate-and-post-normal-science/
01
I read that. But missed any point worth summarising. If you found something useful in that, please share.
00
The exact scenario being played out across the world has been predicted for decades .. as a young virologist back in the 80s we often discussed this at both formal and informal levels. However all levels of Government both in the US and Australia have been warned about this for decades: unlike the AGW scam this is not some theoretical computer model … this is reality and we are just lucky this virus is not one of the Armageddon ones of which there are plenty to choose from already in the wild …
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Jon,
Thank you. Exactly how I feel. Utterly predictable and it could have been so much worse.
Few people seem to understand how vulnerable we are to rogue code.
00
The same with me. It must have been in the seventies during my study (sociology and town planning) I learned about this vulnerability because of intensifying international travel. I started traveling more frequent from about 2005 on. Who didn’t? Air-travel has exploded. I was always puzzled: why don’t we see this predicted scenario happening? My improvised explanation was: a steadily improving health-care, evolving in parallel with this increased mobility.
Could it be prevented? I am a bit more “philosophical” about that, like James Corbett in his latest post: https://www.corbettreport.com/the-things-you-cannot-say-about-coronavirus/
Thanks for the reply above.
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I am a retired but will be heading back to the local hospital when they need extra hands and my daughter is a surgeon: she is already in “harms” way with multiple cases in her care but a major Australian hospital does not proper protective equipment for its doctors/staff, they are short of masks and other basic necessities. Standard strategies like providing video links between medical teams so as to isolate the teams from each other are non existent or thwarted by bureaucratic and archaic IT procedures: THIS IS BASIC STUFF that has been part of the planning for decades …. again we are just lucky … but it could only takes one mutation to change this from a bad situation to catastrophic for civilisation …
However instead of the Greens and the far left considering the TRILLIONS have we wasted on feel good handwaving “green” AGW tokenism could have been better spent on preparing for this a representative of the Extinction Rebellion group announced that this virus could be the best thing that happened as it is killing off our elders who tend to be more sceptical of the AGW and will facilitate their agenda …
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It’s hard to read your comment.
You and your daughter, as professionals, must feel let down by the lack of interest in making health care world’s best practice or near to.
The general public also has a right to feel unhappy that the administration/bureaucracy has not made the best decisions when applying our taxes to the system.
The problem comes down to one of supervision, there’s no one supervising the bureaucrats and they act accordingly.
Undoubtedly there are good people within the system but those abusing it need to be Managed: preferably out onto a chain gang.
The Symbiotic relationship between Politicians and Bureaucrats must be ended.
KK
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