Finally, some action happening around the world. Australia has banned gatherings over 500, but for some reason gatherings of 1500 small humans on a daily basis are still fine. Admittedly short humans (of the young sort) don’t get as deadly sick, but they still spread it, and generally go back each day to houses with people who are at risk. Homeschooling is now on an exponential growth, and it isn’t the end of the world. Ireland has closed schools, as has Greece (a lot of countries, can someone do a list? )
John Campbell always does a good summary. Sensible. h/t to the person weeks ago who first linked him in. I’m trying to find that comment.
The fatalism that says “we have to catch this” is killing people.
Let’s aim higher.
Anyone who thinks this is still like the flu — check the situation on the ground in the ICU wards of Italy from the doc who manages them.
On the plus side there is a lot you can do to avoid this virus. It is not a fait accomplit. Stay out of its way. Stay home. Order online, avoid crowds. Wash hands, don’t touch faces. No need to assume doom but a need to get serious.
Okay, it’s time to start wearing face masks in Australia now.
I’ll go first so that others don’t have to feel like the weird unfashionable ones who are ‘overreacting.’
It’s amazing how people never consider something to be necessary until the bandwagon effect activates (just like the average climate alarmist, though unjustifiable, the same effect can be observed).
I can guarantee if we had branded face masks – Billabong, Roxy, etc – the average Aussie wouldn’t be waiting so darn long to wake the heck up.
God save my civilization from itself.
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So tell me, where the heck do I get to buy a box or two?
The chemists don’t have them. The Online (Australia) shops don’t have them.
Bunnings don’t even have sanding masks!
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depends what you are after
during the bushfires we found allegedly sold out masks in trade stores that supply industrial rubber moldings and plumbing stuff, boxes of them. Dont go where everyone else goes. Our daughter found them in a tradies nuts and bolts store.
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Yesterday two men with face masks on walked into a bank. But it was only a robbery.
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aussies: don;’t follow the USA testing-mode for corona, we’re way way way behind sanity: https://aumladder.blogspot.com/2020/03/key-charts-showing-where-usa-is-at.html
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My Deal had them but I’m not sure that they are N95 or better.
21
If all else fails a tea-towel wrapped around your face and a pair of safety glasses will offer similar (but more limited) protection.
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Ebay
31
If the tradies/ebay have run out, find a DIY guide to make masks. It must be possible. Share here.
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Jo, people don’t understand about the masks.
Their public efficacy comes from stopping those who finally develop respiratory symptoms being able to spread the virus by coughing and sneezing. Secondly they reduce hand to oral contamination for those yet to contract the virus.
People think they have to regularly dispose of masks, but this is just based on guidelines for health workers, particularly those exposed to fluid splashes.
The reality is that the HEPA filter cartridge from a good vacuum cleaner is good for 30 days if connected to a positive pressure supply system. (Such as used for fume hoods etc.).
But for most folk two or three standard P95 masks are all you need if you think the virus is actually being spread by aerosol. After a days use simply swap masks and sterilize the used mask with UV. A solar UV concentration box is easy to build at home.
However, I have powered positive pressure systems and a number of particulate and chemical 3M paper/carbon masks due to work with chemical sprays and composite fibres, and I haven’t even considered getting the box of the shelf.
Note what even Peter Dutton admitted: it started with “a bit of a stomach bug”. This is a virus, not a respiratory illness. Respiratory failure is how it kills, but respiratory transmission is not how it is spreading.
It’s hands to surfaces. Then hands to mouth. Those with zero coughing and sneezing are spreading it.
Remember that high ACE2 receptor count in the small intestine? Contamination from the gastro intestinal tract works better than droplets from coughing and sneezing. More viable cells to support the virus in each spot of contamination. It is quite likely that the virus count in each spot of such contamination could increase after it is free from the inclement environment of the gastro intestinal tract.
Hands! Hands! Hands! (Also avoid all toilets outside your home).
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CDC announced yesterday it is suspended in air for hours. So masks will help reduce the risk. Not perfect though (especially without goggles).
In the ICU’s disposable masks are only rated for 4 hours, and they need someone to help them disrobe and decontaminate because that’s the most dangerous time. There is a full process to go through step by step.
I wish this were just fecal oral (are we sure that viable viruses are found in faeces, or is it just partial fragments?)
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I’m not saying it cannot be spread by aerosol once respiratory tract infection is established, but it is being spread by persons without cold and flu symptoms. Persons who test negative to NAT on throat swabs.
In a truly unbelievable development, our inept government now appears to be test flying a new narrative in the establishment media: that the virus could be spread by asymptomatic persons is a new discovery!
But this was given to us by the Chinese in their very first warning. They told us in January that they had a novel coronavirus, believed zoonotic in origin, with a long asymptomatic infectious period. It was the very first information we got.
As to the fecal-oral infection vector, many viruses spread this way, particularly gastro on cruise ships. The problem with this type of contamination is the particles can keep the virus viable for longer outside the body.
As to masks, they will lose their effectiveness if directly wet via being sprayed with sneeze droplets or the user’s own sweat. The ICU guidelines are to minimize this.
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Jo, I should add that DNA testing of stool has been used in criminal trials and even by councils tracking pets and irresponsible owners soiling footpaths.
What is more of interest is studies on intestinal wall cell exfoliation with regard to cancer detection. Some studies indicate that such cell exfoliation may increase in the areas of a growing cancer. It is not unreasonable to consider that viral infection in the small intestine causes a similar effect, as the body tries to shed cells damaged by the virus.
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The person who invented/developed hand air-driers for public toilets should be taken out, put up against a brick wall and shot!
Almost universal in pubs. clubs, shopping centres, theatres and other venues now, they are a hygiene disaster. Replacing towelling because they are cheaper (NOT better), they blast air over the hands generating hundreds or thousands of tiny airborne aqueous aerosol particles that could carry viable bacteria/viruses for hours. Though I admit some of them blast so hard that aerosols would be sprayed over the walls and floors, leaving viable particles sticking to surfaces for you to put your hand on later. Some units require wet hands to activate (great!) but many are motion sensitive (pun intended). They should AT THE VERY LEAST have air capture and exhaust out of the room equal to the air supply but very few do.
I know, you’ll say that people wash their hands anyway. But research has shown that many people just go through the motions (pun intended again!) of washing. Inadequate hand-washing will leave much of the contamination on the skin. In light of the current epidimick (as the WHO call it) this something to be concerned about.
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🙂 🙂 🙂
32
And public touch screens! Eugh. You can see where everyone presses the same spots. At least with a keypad, you can use a car key or something other than a finger to press it.
30
So I can make great a positive pressure mask using my Miele vacuum cleaner with HEPA filter
10
One place people didn’t think of (for a while at least – not sure what the case is now) was Office Works. There were N95 face masks available there for a long time after Bunnings, chemists etc. were sold out. May still be the case in some out of the way office supply stores or the like which incidentally hold some health and safety gear, though I wouldn’t hold my breath (geddit, geddit)!
I must admit I was somewhat incensed when I saw a single, wealthy looking, individual walk out of Bunnings with a shopping trolley filled with about $2000 worth of masks – the whole store’s supply – the last time they were restocked (a couple of weeks ago).
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You should buy a mask like 3M with P100 Organic filter. Not the cheap paper masks, they don’t help.
31
Good job I stocked up on a whole bunch of different mask types over 5 years ago now.
You can make surgical face masks out of Clorox anti-bacterial and anti-viral wipes and elastic if desperate.
They really aren’t hard to make if you can’t get hold of them from anywhere.
30
Hmm, wonder what breathing those vapors does to lungs?
20
Reply to Mark D. at 1.1.6.1
Tried an alcohol wipe occasionally to ‘clean’ out the airways but couldn’t keep that up for long.
40
Me neither but if you start with cheap vodka and work your way up to Clorox maybe……
SARC for damn sake!
30
I wonder if disposable gloves might not be better, cheaper, simpler, less awkward? You can keep your distance from people, even children, but every time you touch a door handle, handle money, move a chair you are at risk. It would also remind you not to touch your face. These have been standard practice in the food industry for decades.
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I love the disposable gloves that the sandwich-shop staff use. After making your sandwich and handling your cash and their change with the same gloved hand, they move onto the next customer using the same gloved hand! And they change the glove (often one hand is gloved and the other ungloved)every FOUR hours or whenever their shift ends! Great! But at least they wear a glove, eh?
41
Gloves are a mixed blessing because people tend not to wash their gloves/hands as often when wearing them. They give a false sense of compliance.
31
Disposable gloves are an excellent solution. Put them on before entering a store, dispose of them just before getting into your car, or in my case, on my bike.
That way the products you’ve bought still need disinfecting, but you haven’t touched your face while in the store unless you’re stupid! And there is no risk of infecting the car/bike.
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Mask making videos at these two urls normal Mask 1 Groovy mask 2
The mask stops spread via cough from self and stops hand to mouth contact.
Just throwing this out because masks wont be imported soon by what I saw most nations are stockpiling their own manufacture
41
What if the delivery guy/gal is asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic?
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Not just the delivery guy; there are the goods selectors, the packers and the checkers. At least the on-line bill should be OK (or at least virus free).
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dont let the perfect get in the way of the good, just do as much as you think worthwhile and can actually do
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As to delivery risk — use disposable gloves / plastic bags, carry it round to the backyard (not through the house) and leave it for an afternoon in the packet or in a plastic bag in the sun. Don’t let pets/kids get to it. Same for daily mail in case the postie or packer is not well.
A day or two later, open outdoors, toss packaging in garbage bag. Then wash/ alcohol wipe goods if applicable and you can be bothered. Heat is our friend. UV too.
More important, clean your own phone and door knobs, car keys, regularly.
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Yes, clean your phone!
Just look at people on public transport waving their glowing incubation slides around. Touching surfaces, touching their nice electronicly warmed screens, touching their faces …
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Jo, I think it great that you will take such stringent precautions. It means you will be very unlikely to get sick and we can continue to read your updates to your blog. As an health care worker , I won’t go be able to go to such extremes but value your assessments on this blog.
31
Jo, I think it great that you will take such stringent precautions. It means you will be very unlikely to get sick and we can continue to read your updates to your blog. As an health care worker , I won’t go be able to go to such extremes but value your assessments on this blog.
30
Expose it to sunlight for a day. Or buy a UV globe and expose the package to the UV light. Other option, spray it with appropriate disinfectant.
30
Do not despair people, don’t let the fear grab hold. Go out and live life
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Go for your “life” Judge Dread.
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really bad advice for anyone with an underlying condition
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Not a good idea, Judge. I suspect the average age of the commenters here would be above 60. I will be 60 soon but I would be different. I am super fit. My morning regime is 15 chin-ups, 50 push-ups and 15 minutes on the elliptical cross trainer. Then I go to work. Life goes on as usual.
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Organised gatherings of more than 500? Doesn’t even qualify as a Clayton’s solution. It would appear that the RSL is taking it more seriously.
81
Why? you arent stopping this you are only going to slow it down, dont kid yourself
Lots of critics but I wonder how many have actually made a tough impactful decision in their whole life?
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“ you arent stopping this you are only going to slow it down”
Nothing wrong with doing so.
A chart (not the Exp-growth one) is going around showing the importance of “Flattening the curve.” The idea: slow the growth so the health care system is not over loaded. The chart is misleading because it does not show that a slower infection rate will extend that “flattening” far into the future.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
But if you need an ICU bed this month and one is not available, you are in deep do-do.
Need one in July or August? Better. Perhaps.
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Slowing it down is the whole purpose Yarpos Give the medical system the ability to keep pace with the infections, hasn’t Jo made that clear enough.
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I’m seeing unconfirmed reports of Peter Dutton diagnosed with the virus , if this turns out to be true then the PM may have it and maybe now the Premiers .
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Australia could be leaderless in a very short time frame.
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Would we notice? How long since we have had an actual leader?
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The PM is in fine form and says reassuring things like ‘when we get on the otherside of this’.
53
I sorta gave up once I realised I couldnt have Bill Shortern as PM
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Why does physically being isolated mean you cant lead? its like phones, internet , pencils and paper dount exist.
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On your ABC regarding Peter Dutton’s infection:
“In advice provided to the Prime Minister this evening, the deputy chief medical officer has reiterated that only people who had close contact with the Minister in the preceding 24 hours before he became symptomatic need to self-isolate,” a spokesperson for Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.
“That does not include the Prime Minister or any other members of the Cabinet.”
Mr Morrison will not be tested for COVID-19, based on medical advice.
Now that has to be both negligent and stupid.
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> ” … close contact with the Minister in the preceding 24 hours before he became symptomatic need to self-isolate …”
So what happened to the mandatory fortnight ?
Are we are being misled by the CMO and Cabinet, perhaps.
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Yes.
They’re negligent.
No wonder the Australian people distrust the authorities.
Ned Kelly was right in that regard. Nothing has changed.
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Already leaderless.
If they all didn’t turn up for a month to wreck anything which is already working, the nation would be in better shape than if they had showed up.
I’m just waiting for the Greta meltdown now that she won’t be getting any attention for about the next year.
The aggregate worry budget of the population will not be concerned about climate alarmist screeching, so I expect her rhetoric to increase unbearably over then next year while she attempts to satiate her need for attention.
30
Seems credible , I just don’t trust the source .
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/peter-dutton-has-been-admitted-to-hospital-after-testing-positive-for-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR2xecscSgi1ou9ZMvET0l7sAKcHj59Krzte4ZoP44QuEJzBQwB3sCa1fn0
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There is this https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterDutton_MP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.buzzfeed.com%2Fhannahryan%2Fpeter-dutton-has-coronavirus Hope that link works it is a bit round about.
31
Or more directly
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterDutton_MP
21
Front page (on-line) The Australian. Probably in the TV News which I avoid.
41
I just cannot believe the panic and hysteria over no real threat.
New strains of the corona virus occur every couple of years.
Was there any mass death events in previous decades – No.
If Covid 19 had not been named and identified immediately we would hardly have noticed any difference in the death rate.
The politicians and medical experts and media love this stuff because it makes them look so important.
Just like the non existent global warming threat really.
2119
Heard of China, South Korea, Italy. Didn’t think so.
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And interestingly the responses to it are the same as the goals within agenda 21/30.
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The difference is that your global warming hasn’t managed to kill anybody yet.
Why, it hasn’t even managed to change any of the 30 climate types on the Köppen climate classification:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%B6ppen_climate_classification#/media/File:K%C3%B6ppen-Geiger_Climate_Classification_Map.png
Whereas COVID-19 is a real killer:
http://coronaviruslivestats.com/
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The great majority of deaths are the very elderly or chronically ill on deaths door.
Any disease is likely to see them off.
It doesn’t even seem to affect children much, which is the main thing.
1015
I hope you are elderly
And get to catch
So you know first hand what you are advocating for.
109
Don’t think so Bill. He doesn’t display the wisdom gleaned from decades of observation and experience.
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George4,
At the very least your comment is insensitive, at worst despicable.
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George4.
The problem we have is that in Australia we have approximately 12000 ICU beds.
At the moment most are filled due to other medical conditions.
If we get an exponential rise in positive Covid-19 cases that require life saving treatment, the ICU will be overwhelmed.
If that happens there will be forced triage on presented cases and preventable deaths will occur.
Covid-19 is here in this country now. We need to slow the transmission so as to not overwhelm our hospital system.
If you need a ventilator in the future, George4, good luck with that. If we ever get to more than 390 serious/critical cases. you won’t get one. You will rely on triage and most likely be sent home to self care.
NSW health has just announced that 1.5 million NSW residents are likely to be infected in the next months.
How will our health system cope?… I don’t know… I hope so.
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It won’t.
And where did you get your figures for the number of ICU beds?
Did you read this and the comments that followed?
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/dire-italy-just-three-weeks-from-3-patients-to-a-hospital-system-on-brink-of-collapse-12-need-intensive-care/#comment-2290678
22
Sceptical Sam
via AIHW.. the Australian Institute of health and welfare.
In 2020 there is approx 2500 ICU beds in Australia. Not 12000.
I stand corrected
thankyou.
I hope my point still stands.
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George4:
There speaks true ignorance.
I don’t need to even try and refute you:
Look closely, thoroughly, and carefully at Italy (and maybe Iran, if anything they say is credible).
They are where you could go …
40
What is the mortality rate of Coronavirus?
I would say the best estimate (so far) is deaths dived by the number who have recovered.
Currently;
World; Deaths 4989, Recovered 70,395, Mortality 7%
Australia; Deaths 4, Recovered 26, Mortality 15%
105
Latest advice from St Vincents Private Hospital, Victoria:
I will add that I was in the Day Oncology Unit today. There was no sense of panic among the staff. They seemed to be aware of the risks.
102
I have read the mortality under 20 is near zero. Over 70 it is near 16%. Averages do not represent the problem. Even 1% mortality for Australia means 260,000 people!
Children and young adults are not at risk generally and as this is asymptomatic even for adults, children are the major source of infection for their parents and grandparents . And as someone who catches everything easily, I have lived with this as an observation at the start of every school season. I planned for it. Now this virus is life threatening because this is viral pneumonia and nothing can be done except oxygen and dilation, perhaps a respirator and waiting.
However disposable gloves and washing of touch surfaces once a day would help, as it does on ships. Bannisters and door handles. I travel on Cunard because this is regular practice and they have avoided the major noravirus outbreaks of other cruise liners. I read of major disasters on other lines. Many friends have been very sick on cruises at a life threatening level.
Disposable gloves are mandatory in food handling. Why not at home, not to protect the client, to protect yourself?
71
I also believe everyone will get it. In time. All we can do is stall and hope for an innoculation soon. Stalling means flattening the infection curve allowing emergency services to cope and save lives.
At the same time stalling will slowly infect the community and build herd immunity, itself slowing the infection if it is not recurrent. Once all the children have been infected, this vector will be reduced greatly. Just not all at once. And when the innoculation is available, it is highest risk people down. Then this virus will become part of the furniture.
82
And I have read the average age in emergency care is 69.
51
In Lombardy Italy obvious 65
31
In australia, the average number of deaths from flu in 2017 was 1255.
It wil be interesting to see how the corona thing compares in 12 months time.
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/3303.0~2017~Main%20Features~Deaths%20due%20to%20influenza~5
“In 2017 there were 1,255 deaths due to influenza, recording a standardised death rate of 3.9 per 100,000 persons. This is a significant increase from 2016 where 464 influenza deaths were recorded. An individual dying from influenza in 2017 was most likely to be female, aged over 75 years, have multiple co-morbidities and living in the eastern states of Australia.
41
Just a small correction Peter. The deaths divided by the sum of the deaths and recovered. Apologies if I seem picky, but I’m sure some troll would have seen the chance to criticise you.
52
Just looked at the figures. That’s exactly what you did do. Apologies Peter.
52
TedM,
You are correct, However as you note below it did not make much difference.
However,
Australia: Deaths 3, Recovered plus deaths 29, Mortality 10%
Which is nearer to the world average
62
PeterC:
Why did you calculate the death rate on deaths[3] per deaths+recovered[29] instead of deaths per total cases[199]…ie ~1.5%.
Some have still not completely recovered…but most probably will recover.
42
Truth, true, but some have not completely died. ( In the end resolved cases must be used)
There are imperfections in both methods now. What percentage of cases are critical. How may cases have yet to go serious or reach the mean time of death.
How many deaths were never recorded or tested? How many cases were mild, and never tested?
00
Peter
That doesn’t take into account the vast numbers who are untested and didn’t know they have the virus. So the number of deaths compared to the number of official cases is not a true reflection of the real mortality rate.
Our chief health officer in the UK reckons we have some 5 to 10000 cases undetected rather than the current 600 or so. With some 10 deaths to date that makes a huge difference to the mortality rate
132
What vast numbers? Your Chief Health Officer has not been very clear.
He is making a huge assumption. Or two assumptions.
Either:
1, there are a lot of people who get the virus but never get sick, or
2.there are a huge number of people who have been exposed but are Not Yet Sick
34
And either option makes it worse, not better.
In both cases they are infectious and pass it on.
Sheez!
32
Many are rationally convinced that there are many deaths ( especially in China) which also are not part of the official record.
There is a pnemonia pathology test that is simple and 98 percent accurate, (better then current tests) in identifying Cov19 cases.
AFAIK, exactly zero of these have been used or checked for in any nation, besides China, who stopped using them when the positive numbers soared.
31
Calculating death rates from diseases has never added a guesstimate of undiagnosed cases before. Why should we suddenly do it for covid19, unless your aim is to make it to be less of a risk than it actually is.
If you want to compare death rates from diseases you compare diagnosed cases with diagnosed cases.
30
Ted, unfortunately that is not how the flu is done. It is estimated.
00
I believe the death rate will actually be well under 1%.
And that this strain is not a unique deadly version,
that is somehow unprecedented in 50 years.
Tell me a year when a corona virus has ever been anything near a pandemic in history.
811
George, tell me a year when Italy lost control of its hospitals?
153
Jo, You have provided an excellent source of information on the current epidemic, because, of the alternatives,
most newspapers demand either a subscription or that you stop Adblock (with the surprising exception of Guardian (UK ) and Al-Jazeera)
or the BBC which for me is too tainted by deceit and misinformation.
However don’t dismiss George4’s comments . Things may be different in Australia, but if anyone over there knows or remembers what winter is like
in England: it is cold, grey, wet , miserable. Sometimes it seems death would be almost a relief (and then the daffodils appear and mood changes). And death does come- about 10000 / winter from colds, flu, pneumonia.
That is a rate of about 2000/ month . Since the 1st Jan, therefore about 5000 deaths have occurred by what the Health Service would have considered
normal. Compare that with 10 deaths from coronavirus.
I appreciate that it could be different in Australia . Your climate protects you from the ailments that afflict us here in England so you are
not prepared. However from a more general and global viewpoint Gerge4 makes a valid comment, IMO.
But there must be something else happening in Italy to produce anomalous mortality results
But please keep up the good work of keeping us informed. It really is appreciated.
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Mike and George, I”m all ears if there are numbers or reasons I’ve missed. Please do correct me.
But if you can bear to spend time watching the twitter feed from the trouble zones and look at the economic data / satellite pollution etc in China there is a gulf between official stats and lived experience. And in Italy there is a war inside the hospitals.
If the death toll were ten times higher in China, would anyone know? (Apart from the CCP and probably not even them?)
See the misery and dislocation this brings. Watch the doctors and nurses and it is obvious this has never happened in their lifetimes.
What drives me is how easily this can be avoided and how stupidly we are not.
I’ve known this dislocation was coming for 7 weeks now, called it correctly partly because I was researching the front line, which has been fragmentary unreliable hints tips, videos and pleas from people on twitter. Mainstream media are just catching up now that it over the doorstep.
Watch the misery. Wonder why 80% of Chinas economy is not working.
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Just came across this article it may go at least some of the way toward explaining the Italian numbers . . . . .
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/italy-is-second-country-with-coronavirus-outbreak-preceded-by-a-tuberculosis-epidemic/
41
Joseph, interesting. As someone who has had TB it is it devastating, even if you survive. It came to Australia in quantity after the war. And it is 80x more prevalent in illegal migrants to Italy and the US, providing a foundation for Covid-19. This may be a cover for tuberculosis and even a trigger for dormant tuberculosis. Many other diseases are also entering Europe and the US without controls, but no one says anything. Open borders? Total disaster.
However as I noted above, quoting death rates as a % ignores the target groups. The death rate in the oldest segment is 1/6. For under 20s, 0.1%. An average does not explain the devastation. There are 1.3Million Australians over 60. That’s 250,000 deaths. As many again 50-60 at half the rate but twice the numbers.
81
And I have a cadiologist friend who was treating a South Sudanese woman when he suddenly realised she had tuberculosis. We had almost forgotten about it. After WWII it vanished. Another wave came through with the Vietnam war. And another is happening today with African migration.
81
From my observations the only thing that has stopped this virus from burning through it’s food supply ( 70 plus percent of the population) is strong travel bands, strong quarantines, strong testing and follow up.
Italy is getting close to now doing those. South Korea succeeded resonably well. China, that is another story. They may have succeeded by accelerating the negative, group quarantines of people possibly exposed in human petri dishes, large room, thousands of beds, no walls, common restrooms.
Basically democide – death by government. Same thing in elderly care facilities and prisions. Many stories from China indicate this. As China locked out all external observations, they lose all credibility.
Any nation that decides to treat this like the flu will deeply regret that choice. China, South Korea, Italy, all, to various degrees had their hospitals overwhelmed. Sans the mentioned defensive protocols, this will happen, and far worse. Worse long term economic damage, vastly more suffering and death.
Cov19 is at least 20 times as deadly as the flu ( before overwhelmed hospitals) twice as contagious, and facing zero herd immunity that flus face.
41
I wonder what would happen if the government tackled it the other way around ie require the people actually most at risk to self quarantine from the start …instead of those of the general population who become infected…..who can still stay at home until recovered as usual.
Ie ask all GPs to advise all of their patients who are of the age cohort and the at-risk-due-to illnesses cohort …a big overlap there…plus their nuclear families[ to ensure they don’t bring it home] to register with their GPs…and then
self-quarantine with guaranteed help ..both medical and economic… from government and the medical community…including help lines etc…and treat it as a normal flu season for the rest of the community.
31
Oh and George, when was the common cold not a pandemic?
00
George try 2020.
12
Just checked the figures for Italy George4. Death rate as a % of diagnosed cases is 6.7% However 84% of diagnosed cases are still active. Not sure how your argument stands up against those figures. Unless of course you simply choose to ignore them. Or perhaps you are just here to troll.
74
George IV is trying to do the C21st equivalent of the old Catholic riddle.
How many angels can dance on that pin head George?
Emancipate us George.
22
Peter, whilst your arithmetic might be correct the numbers you quote are just rubbish. As has been pointed out in these pages and other places where there has been informed discussion of the risks of Wuhan flu the ratios you quote do not provide useful information on the risk of dying from this virus after you have been infected.
If you are new to this discussion then you get a free pass whilst you catch up but it is past time for people to stop quoting trivial statistics.
37
LC,
I am not new to the discussion. The statistics that I quoted are not rubbish, they are the best available.
If you have better statistics you can explain now.
83
Sorry I didn’t get back to this earlier. The reason they are rubbish is because, as I and many others have pointed out, nobody has any realistic data on the number of infections in the population. That number is certainly larger and, with a high probability, many times larger than the count given by those actually tested.
10
But why stop at statistics? Science Engineering and medicine should ban all numbers and math use, they’re almost as annoying as established fact and analysis.
81
The weird thing about the China stats is that though they are apparently invented by a computer model they do appear to have ratios that come from some kind of real data. Seems strange but the CCP may have been playing fair with ratios but hiding the true extent. I don’t trust anything they say, but cross checked against other nations the CCP stats are not ridiculous.
80
Jo, I have thought that possible as well regarding China; you know ” figures lie, and liars figure.”
However, now there is lots of evidence that they missed the mark starting to show…
The time of contagion for both China and the ROW is about even now. However ROW statistics are now steeper then any from China… regarding new cases, steeper in the ROW. Daily fatal is more then double China statistics. Across the board the exponentials are now steeper the China’s peak.
Two factors primarily affect the length of the steep rise middle portion of the Gompertz curve.
1. The middle exponential portion is shortened by strong travel bans and effective quarantines.
2. It is lengthened by letting the virus burn through its fuel supply; which is you, me and everyone we know.
China’s numbers are FUBAR. IMV, they did one and two!!
They likely shortened the middle portion by massive poorly done quarantines that effectively raised the RO, placing “potentially exposed” in group quarantine of thousands of beds with zero walls and or common air supply and group restrooms, and locking in elderly resthomes and prisions. I think this is democide, death by government. They accelerated the virus feed through some populations while separating others ( unexposed) in real quarantine.
China shortened the time portion of the middle curve, buried the bodies, and destroyed the records. As China allowed zero observation, their credibility is gone, and the many hundreds of leaks and videos are valid evidence.
30
Just a few links…
From a list below…
ere:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-funeral-house-director-hospitals-sent-bodies-marked-unidentified-pneumonia_3264598.html
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-authorities-require-government-offices-to-destroy-data-related-to-coronavirus-outbreak_3257797.html
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-china-continues-to-hide-real-coronavirus-epidemic-figures-still-new-exposure-by-cai-xin-global-online-media
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-more-cases-being-reported-in-china-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-dying-suddenly
00
Links from poster meglort below
00
Italy actually today has 46.80%. That should go down, but high rate may also be down to the numbers leaving no ICU units for patients. I read somewhere they don’t even assess patients over 67, true or not. Health care system is not designed to deal with Wuhan-Covid-19.
22
past performace is not a gaurantee of future returns
I think the Internet and the state of media certainly ramps up the buzz. I just wonder how mass the deaths have to be for you to consider it noteworthy?
It will be intersting to look back in 12 months to see how all this fits in the continuim of global disease cycles and mortality. Time and distance often offers a different perspective to what seems catastrophic at the time.
71
‘we would hardly have noticed anny difference’
Look at Italy, look at Spain and many others. .
George4 don’t be a Covid 19 denier?
GeoffW
53
Iran digs mass graves for virus victims.
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/03/satellite-photos-show-iran-digging-mass-graves-after-wuhan-virus-overwhelms-health-system.html
31
Imagine its a [Snip ] virus from the Wuhan Institute, the authorities around the world are on high alert because we are dealing with a free radical.
[ Saying it’s man made and proving it’s man made are two different things so for this mod any claim that gets through the filter will end up in moderation ] AD
13
My humblest apologies.
21
And the lock downs, restriction of movement, deployment of troops, and increased surveillance are very much along the lines of the goals of UN Agenda 21/30.
83
so just do nothing and it will be fine then?
22
You should do the things that a healthy lifestyle provides. Non-inflammatory diet (low varb, Med, Adkins), a bit of exercise, good sleep and de-stress.
As far as de-stresses go, simply avoid all the hysteria of this round of a virus mutation our species has lived with, and won btw, for over 6,000 years.
And don’t be fooled by folks shouting out all kinds of numbers and projections. Statistical manipulations of tiny numbers projected to billions of people is not only reliable but, mostly, irresponsible for any medical professional. The MD’s use, and should use, real science of blind randomized clinical trials (brct). For example, a 2008 brct comparing masks, washing, hand sanitizers, etc., to avoid flu symptoms stated there was no statistical difference in those wearing mask, washing hand, using plain water, etc. I could find no brct on quarantines for respiratory viruses. Pick your reason but quarantining to “contain” them just never has worked, not even in 1918.
Your best defense is your lifestyle.
Your second defense is understanding that this specific round of “novel” strains will run it’s course, regardless and in spite of, whatever government does. At this stage, even ignoring sites like these would help your health by de-stressing. I’ve lived through every single epidemic and pandemic since the 1940’s and this round is not even close to many of the prior rounds yet the world population just keeps growing. And yet, we live in a world where viruses and other pathogens routinely kill millions of people; a world where the boomers are forcing virtually all elder statistics upward since they’re entering the “high risk” of dying group; a world where the medical profession and others have created the sickest Western population in history with “epidemics” of obesity, diabetes, dementia, cardio disease all due, mostly, to folks following their advice to “reduce risk” by asking your doctor to take our drug or buying industrial manufactured foods.
So,at the cost of billions of tax dollars, trillions of economic impact, imposing draconian measures, scaring the Millenials to wee in their pants when someone sniffles, and suffering political agenda groups from climate activists to simple Left wing politicians demanding money for abortions, universal incomes, etc., etc. If we named human eras like geological eras, this will be classified as the Age of Hysteria.
Protect yourself. Avoid a premature death. If you worry, change your lifestyle since there really is nearly nothing one can do to stop, prevent, or avoid exposure to the viruses of our world whether we give them a cute name or not.
144
Cedarhill, This started out as a bat virus ..It’s RNA has been found only in the bats in caves in Yunan province of Southern China.
None of us had any immunity to it until it started spreading this year…
So your advice is flawed in so far as it is based on fake facts.
65
Thank you, Stanley, for finding humour where it was planted when others failed. Geoff S
31
“there really is nearly nothing one can do to stop, prevent, or avoid exposure to the viruses of our world”
Rubbish.
Small pox is a virus. It has been eliminated.
Ebola is a virus, it is under control.
SARS is not epidemic.
MERS is not epidemic.
All have a high overlap with bat viruses.
What is very dangerous about COVID-19 is that people do not know they are sick. Nor does anyone else. It does not show itself until it is too late to prevent the spread of disease.
122
What’s really dangerous about Covid-19 is the fatalism and acceptance that there is nothing we can do…
182
Do you mean the lack of responsibility for oneself? Governments in this country have been encouraging that attitude for decades.
Me , I like Walter Last’s book , Heal Yourself.
21
That was a reply to Jo at #61
11
I concur. While Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea are demonstrating daily that we don’t have to except defeat, the Morrison government has no excuse for throwing in the towel.
Is Trump surrendering to this virus even after the CDC mistakes. No! (And he’s not surrendering to the anti-Trumpers infestin5 the CDC ranks either.
We can still stop this virus. The cost, while expensive, would still be less than Morrison’s “stimulus package”.
The first step to getting back on the rails is sacking Dr Brendan Murphy. Then we need to stop the flights. Then we need to use the right tests, matching South Korea on a per capita basis.
41
Replying to TdeF at #77
How does shedding work in spreaders without symptoms? That’s to say if there’s no coughing or sneezing is it just breathing that spreads the virus?
01
” At this stage, even ignoring sites like these would help your health by de-stressing.”
I tend to take more notice of those people who take their own advice.
10
Reply to DAve #36. It is, and that’s a bum. But it is also exactly what any half sensible nation would do when faced with an ro of 2.5, doubling every 6 days, that spreads asymptomatically.
122
Another video on YouTube with Dr John Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkwHNeNU098
This is an interview and only goes for 6 minutes. But he gets the message across short & sharp for all to understand.
Jo I think it was Larry Ledwick on Chiefio, back in late January or early February who posted links to Dr Campbell on Corona19 virus. Yes, Dr Campbell was ringing the warning bells that long ago !
Larry Ledwick has since died ( I am not sure why ) . But for a 3 week period till late Feb.he was making multiple posts on Chiefio, every day about Corona 19 virus. The evidence he presented then, along with your posts here, was crucial in informing me of this huge issue even in early February
Both I and Another Ian posted links to Dr Campbell’s videos via the Chiefio blog.. But I cannot remember which of us posted first… It’s not really important.
102
Could we please replace Dr Brendan Murphy with Dr Campbell?
Could we do it yesterday?
71
Oh No! Dreadful to hear of Larry Ledwick? I had no idea, but often found his comments to be far ahead of pack. That’s such a shame. :- (
61
Bill yes, I’m sure it was a Chiefio link. Thank you.
I am dismayed to hear about Larry Ledwick. He was so sharp. So insightful. 🙁
51
Indeed Jo, Far ahead of the pack and insightful on this issue and on many others over the past year or so that I have been reading and commenting on Chiefio
41
That’s the worry, you have it and you may not know it.
GeoffW
42
Hey, that’s the glass-is-half-empty perspective. Base-10 logarithmically speaking, that is.
My glass-is-half-full view is that if there are ten who have COVID-19 and don’t know for every one that is known to have it, then the mortality rate is actually one tenth of whatever is being calculated. Looking at the situation this way, the more that have it and never know the better is our outlook.
And to introduce another non-pessimistic thought, none of the reporting considers how many of those dying from COVID-19 overlap with the cohort of up to 650,000 annual flu-related deaths… because statistics available from the WHO suggest a “business-as-usual” worldwide flu-related death rate of around 1,000 per day. Today’s WHO Situation Report for COVID-19 reports 342 worldwide deaths from COVID-19 with 7 in China (yesterday was 11) where this strain originated. With around one-sixth of the world’s population this is less than one-tenth of a nominal flu-related “quota” of around 140 per day. If those numbers can be trusted then it is possible that the mainstream media is blowing this pandemic out of proportion. Not that I think they might do something like that (HAH!) to attract clicks, views, and advertising revenues.
93
The overwhelmed hospitals even with low case numbers, and average and above average flu numbers show no evidence of overlap.
22
Must agree. 🙂
11
What? did I agree to.
00
Glad to see the UK are now rethinking their strategy of herd immunity
32
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work
21
that’s not herd immunity strategy, it’s a state sanctioned extermination program.
34
Who knows. My parents are annoying, but I rather they hang around.
There are reports that it can cause sterility amongst other organ damage (in males I believe). Also rumour, studies on this outcome being supressed from publication. One was in pre-print and withdrawn.
Being a novel virus, we just don’t know longitudinal stuff much at all. If there was something in it, might make millennials take it seriously! Might also reduce the growth and level of population in a generation. Deployed by the CAGW elites after scomo won the election.
52
Besides, if you wanted it to become endemic, you would stuff up testing, be overly cautious in containment and downplay the severity.
The complete opposite of what has been done, not.
32
I agree. Herd immunity seems to be a response spouted by some academics who say it is a natural phenomena and as such we should let it happen. They say that after it has run it’s course of 60% population infection all will be well.
I do not agree. Of course it’s out of the box now, but to fight the virus we must do whatever we can to slow it down and give ourselves time to treat manageable numbers and save as many lives as possible. Many people already have some immunity and will only get a mild dose. They are the ones who already have herd immunity.
GeoffW
40
Did anyone already have immunity. Aren’t these mild cases just evidence of a healthy immune system doing its thing?
70
We have to plan for worst case scenario of everyone’s immune system shutting down due to going for take away food and junk food binges as a result of all the bad news and hysteria.
30
What also needs to be taken into account is severe malnutrition due to stocking up on canned food and sugar coated crisp corn flakes and long life milk…these alone have a horrific effect on the body when taken for sustained periods. These can cause havoc in the healthy immune system.
30
Good point. It’s possible to have stored foods which are fairly wholesome but in a distracted and quick-fix world it’s not likely.
I’m reminded of those meat substitutes and bug burgers which are meant to have people going to the same corporate chains to eat the same corporate gunk…but with a sprinkling of enviro-virtue. Like with so many green “initiatives” there’s no change that’s a real change. His Pastiness Bill Gates can go on looking even pastier and pastier as he downs his daily cheeseburger oozing vegan laboratory blood…all the while saving the planet, of course.
50
From the BBC . . .
“Bill Gates steps down from Microsoft board to focus on philanthropy”
21
Replying to Joseph at #122
Is that to explain selling his shares?
10
UHT long life milk is not unhealthy at all.
40
Regardless of the value of ro the situation is serious. What must be done is to avoid throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Instead we need to know who is infected to take appropriate action before they spread the virus not after. This means test kits must be made freely available to almost everyone, and not just for once off tests but periodically. This means big bucks to make the kits. Money well spent IMHO. It would potentially save millions of lives if the virus is as serious as what some are saying.
20
You’re replicating fast.
Are you a virus?
GEORGE-4 the distant cousin of COVID?
43
We may making some progress on the macro things but it seems that the small things, which are of critical importance to local communities, are still a giant black hole. Take this for an example. This is not me but I have had the information directly from the person involved and no, I am not going to identify anyone. This all occurs in Chairman Dan’s socialist state of Victotia.
This person, who is mid thirties, has symptoms which could be Wuhan Flu, or could be a common cold or flu, there is no symptomatic differential diagnosis as far as I know. Contacts GP who says hmm, probably best you attend one of Chairman Dan’s special clinics to get tested. Attends clinic, faffs around for a couple of hours, exposed to all sorts of other people, gets history taken and is eventually told, sorry, no test for you, you are not in a high risk group, bearing in mind that the sample takes just a few minutes to collect..
Now , mid thirties, yeah, probably not high risk but, had been to Port Fairy folk festival last weekend AND attends a university with a high proportion of Chinese students.
Any competent public health authority would sieze on these indicators as possible early warning of a new cluster source. Not Chairman Dan, seems a bit subtle for him, or maybe his new clinics are another useless PR exercise. If we don’t get the small things right the grand guestures will not mean a thing
172
Lightning Camel:
Like the old story: man attends Clinic and is faced with 2 doors Male or Female (you can tell this is an old joke and doesn’t apply in Vic.)
Goes through male door and faces 2 doors Over 50 or under 50. Goes through Over 50 door.
Comes to 2 doors “In the last election did you Vote Labor or Liberal?”
Goes through Liberal door and finds himself back on the street.
191
Don’t laugh.
In the ACT there’s a policy that enables non-privately insured patients to access private hospitals at no cost.
You need to be connected to the Labor Party to get access though.
61
LC Here in SA one can get a test only after going & seeing a GP.
And that means mixing it with dozens of others waiting, maybe for 30-40 minutes or so.
Nutters !
Dumbnuts !
And ye Dutton is in quarantine because he got himself tested and is positive.
But I wonder who gave it to him ?
Maybe he wasn’t taking any care to avoid it…
41
In Moderation ! Why ?
No copyright issue
Not a huge comment
No swear words !
[ No idea unless it was the two slang words Bill , I’ve released it ] AD
21
Its caught me out too, a number of times, but this might get through.
BEIJING: ‘China reported just eight cases of the novel coronavirus on Friday (Mar 13), five of which were in the epicentre of Wuhan in Hubei province, where city governments have started to loosen travel curbs.
‘The numbers are the lowest daily tally for Wuhan since China started reporting figures in January.’
31
Do you believe them?
82
Its hard to know for sure, I would need an independent body to verify.
21
But would the CCP ever allow that ?
Very unlikely !
41
Its probably true.
“Broadly speaking, the peak of the epidemic has passed for China,” said Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission. “The increase of new cases is falling.” The Hill
21
Move along, nothing to see here:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-funeral-house-director-hospitals-sent-bodies-marked-unidentified-pneumonia_3264598.html
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-authorities-require-government-offices-to-destroy-data-related-to-coronavirus-outbreak_3257797.html
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-china-continues-to-hide-real-coronavirus-epidemic-figures-still-new-exposure-by-cai-xin-global-online-media
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read-more-cases-being-reported-in-china-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-dying-suddenly
In general with the CCP, if they tell you they are doing something they are not, and if they tell you something is true, it is false.
51
Propaganda is a combo of truth and lies, finely balanced to present integrity. Half truths seem real enough, we learnt that from our ABC.
20
I think Chairman Dan set up these clinics partly to avoid doctor’s waiting rooms becoming spreading centres.
52
Seems a bit childish to keep yarping on about Chairman Dan (no fan of his BTW)
Do you seriously think the Premier has anything to do with clinical triage? are you that desperate for a political point score?
33
Two mentions is hardly “yarping on” but he has a fair track record of instigating projects which are knee jerk reactions, poorly thought out, ineffective and expensive. You’re tight, he is not making these decisions himself but he does not seem to be able to harness the needed range of expertise. Besides, he will take the credit for anything positive that comes out of this, so he can cop the negatives as well.
52
I guess we have different metrics on yarping. Cheesy political name calling and point scoring in the middle of these events is tiresome at best, let alone repeating it. A slightly different thing from reasonable criticism.
20
Saving money on test kits.
31
Camel I think the problem is the resources/time to perform the test.
ie lack of materials and personal. Swab is the easy part . .
Not to mention the cost $400 ? – anyone know.
GeoffW
31
The Federalist (USA) has a piece on Taiwan’s success. They ignored Beijing and WHO and got busy and effective very early. Employing technology to stay on top of a murky, evolving situation. A nice brief write-up.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/11/what-the-rest-of-the-world-can-learn-from-taiwans-success-containing-coronavirus/
However, I’m sure there’s much more to the story, besides neglect of Taiwan’s success
91
It is interesting to read that timeline
For Taiwan’s actions to prevent the disease getting established in Taiwan.
Interesting also that almost nothing is known or said about this sucessful response !
41
Maybe COVID disease cases are being diagnosed wrongly as Dengue Fever infections ?
New study from Singapore says this :
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-singapore-study-shows-that-covid-19-patients-could-be-misdiagnosed-for-dengue-due-to-false-positive-in-dengue-serological-tests
31
Hi Jo
So what is the importance of the 500 limit crowd size? Is there some scientific statistic that indicates the virus is less communicable in crowds of this number? I would have thought that a crowd of 3 would be enough to spread a highly contagious virus far and wide.
Sadly this government does what it seems to do best i.e. the yes but no on every issue. The F1 GP is cancelled but it will be ok to go to the footy on the weekend except after Monday when suddenly it all becomes magically too dangerous to be in a crowd of 500+. They put up an economic stimulus package but decide it is so urgent that they can leave it for 2 weeks until parliament is due to return. It’s been a long time since I have found myself in agreement with the ALP opposition but they are right, if this is an economic emergency then get the parliament back next week and the funding for the health care measures legislated. As we speak Trump and the US congress are putting through their stimulus package so why are we waiting?
Unfortunately our PM (Peanut Minister) Morrison looks like repeating his bushfire holiday bungle. Instead of doing his job he’s of to the footy, the urgent economic problem can wait for 2 weeks. Given the speed with which things are moving at the moment there might not be much economy to stimulate in 2 weeks.
55
Yes, if only we had Bill Shortern.
33
There were two reasons as I understood it, the first being based on a particular infection density and thus the chance of an infected being at the venue (and then spreading it) in the context of the number of known cases that the population is at.
Second that at the <500 level they are generally local events and not likely to bring in lots of out of region attendees. This makes the contact tracing far simpler (and perhaps relatively) achievable to do if there are known incidents.
31
No it will be” Murphys” law obediently obeyed by the PM.
31
If we’re lucky this will create a whole slew of new educational alternatives isolated from the PC Globo Trans Homo brainwashing currently passing for education.
62
The World wakes up, some are WOKE, and others go back to sleep…..
Wed. / Thur UK TV Doctor experts tell us that children (they call’em kids – but I’m no Goat) are “super spreaders” -children may not exhibit symptoms, etc etc – but are still CARRIERS. Now THIS Morning the Scottish Gov Adviser on BBC Scotland radio was telling us it’s OK for children to go to school. Catch & Spread, I ask? What DOES society want? – maybe NOT what they want but more like what the “Scientists” want to experiment with. Jeremy Vine this morning -Britain is Britain – we’re different. All beggars belief. Smacks more of this stupid consensus stuff – always “97%” of scientists … ( Just like that climbing stuv) 😉
Tourism to suffer with cancelled visits, etc. When OUR ANIMALS had F&M the country went into self-imposed quarantine – “nobody moved” and Pleas were put out that if you weren’t involved with animals, you couldn’t spread the disease and SHOULD continue to support tourism , etc.
So where does this leave the WORLD? obviously there is a lack of “Common Sense” in terms of common good Hygiene practices. Begs the Question, since I was a Bairn and brought up at home by mother in the Countryside, WHAT ARE they teaching (NOT) at Playschool / Pre-school? and the rest of the proceedings…just Politics and maybe a form of Sabotage? Resetting politics and Economics, perhaps.
61
Golly..its almost like they want it to spread.
Question is – Qui Bono?
30
Actually if you think about it, its a tyrants dream scenario:
– Whole communities locked down, effectively by unoffical adherence to govt decree
– Lawyer-fearing sporting effectively events all cancelled
– Lawyer-faring community effectively events all cancelled
– People effectively not travelling ( locked down )
– People quaking in fear, hanging on every govt utterance ( possibly Stockholm syndrome style ?)
– Govt control over economy by controlling info regards whats going on
– Govt control of travel
– Govt control of goods and services via Pandemic martial law
– Govt control of schools
Have I missed anything?
Just throwing this out there – could it be we’ve been done over, ever so cleverly?
Problem – Reaction – Solution?
21
No it isn’t Steve !
Any tyrant’s forces of oppression are just as vulnerable to this plague
As the rest of us.
Just as in 1919 with Spanish Flu.
Learn some history mate !
20
Youre not getting it. Govts have access to unlimited resources.
Now plug that into your equations….
22
For those wondering how the R0 is formulated;
R0 uses the D.O.T.S. acronym.
D-Duration – Average Duration of illness. Coronavirus about 2 weeks.
O-Opportunity – Number of people contacted for days infectious
T-Transmission – Chance of infection during interaction
S-Susceptibility – Chance of becoming infectious to others
A number weighting is attached to the above variables to calculate the R0. Its arguable weightings are influenced strongly by culture and not simply by age and/or pre-existing illness.
It’s very clear the Opportunity component is being poorly managed at present. A person may be infectious yet asymptomatic for an extended period. The chance of testing everyone who is asymptomatic is zero. Therefore pockets of the virus will continue to appear in the absence of a successful protective means of preventing active transmission.
External or self-imposed quarantine is being put into place. It would seem far smarter to improve wearable protective measures rather than imposing strict quarantining. For those who are not yet detected or are recovered, perhaps limited quarantine and mandatory protective equipment would satisfy social needs whilst avoiding a severe economic shock?
82
There are now 16 people infected with Corona Virus 19 in SA
A few days ago it was just 7 !
And I suspect some here thought we would escape being bothered.
But four tested positive yesterday
Four were discovered today.
Some of them brought it with them from overseas.
But three have not travelled recently and must have caught it locally
From unknown persons who are infected with this disease and also still spreading it.
In other words “Community Transmission” is already happening.
Meanwhile bizarrely the Adelaide Festival & the fringe are continuing until Monday
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/south-australian-student-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/12054058
61
Stupidity goes on
20
The Australian case load has always been increasing exponentially since 1 Feb, but if it was the same exponential exponent it would form one straight line on a log scale.
It doesn’t, there’s three weeks at a shallow line then the two weeks after that are a steeper line. Even on a log vertical scale there is distinct acceleration inflection point occurring on 28 Feb. But the incubation period is about 7 days, so what happened around 21 Feb to cause this?
As a start, check the UQ Academic Calendar.
The QUT Academic Calendar:
Check the headlines.
Join the freaking dots, people. The Qld Health Department certainly has. (Note, Toowong is next to UQ.)
The small number of Australians who were repatriated from the Diamond Princess had already arrived by 22nd, had already been diagnosed as cases, and are not even counted in the above WHO data because they’re counted in the “International Conveyance (Diamond Princess)” category.
People were also able to fly in from Iran until the 4 March, which has led to several cases of Iranian origin being discovered, but that doesn’t map to a significant change in the graph slope, and it certainly didn’t go down after 4 March.
That the Liberal Party conspired with the universities in this Cash-for-Corona deal is very puzzling.
Can we call it Coronaversitygate?
00
An interesting comment from ABC South Asia correspondent James Oaten today:
The journalists at the ABC seem well aware that Australia’s education sector being highly connected to China had exposed Australia more highly to the initial outbreak.
This is not about blame, because it is not a person’s own fault when they get sick, but about remembering what action (or inaction) led to many more cases in Australia than would have otherwise happened. We cannot do better and faster solutions next time if we don’t remember the facts about what caused the scale of this outbreak.
00
This virus is making me sick. Sick to my stomach.
I simply cannot believe the Australian government and media could have been so inane. By the end of next week we will likely have over 1300 “known” infections. A fortnight after it will be close to 100,000. And this was all entirely preventable! (And it still is, but we won’t).
I also cannot believe the censorship of public discussion by the establishment media. This too is sickening. So sure they are an “Intellectual elite” they have apparently decided that “Maintaining trust in government” is ever so more important that facilitating valid scientific discussion that leads the government to action that inspires trust and stops Australia copying Italy.
I can understand that people had trouble understanding that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming. That the net effect of our radiatively cooled atmosphere was to cool the solar heated surface of our planet by 26C not warm it by 33C. That one was a little complex. Some understanding of thermodynamic, fluid dynamics and radiate physics was required.
But this virus? No specialist medical knowledge was required. We knew it was a novel coronavirus with no available vaccine. We knew it was being spread by persons who had no cold and flu symptoms, and SARS style screening could not detect them. We knew it had an R0 above 2.0. We knew it had a mortality rate far higher than normal flu. We knew most people who died experienced viral pneumonia style flooding of the lungs without secondary infection and a few younger persons suffered cytokine cascade. We knew all this in January.
That’s it. That’s all we needed to know to stop this. This was just logic and numbers.
All that fancy stuff about ACE2 receptor, who was likely to become ill, who was likely to become an asymptomatic carrier and how current technology could detected it before the virus was ever present in the respiratory tract? That was all a bonus. We didn’t need all that to stop it in Australia.
I truly feel sick. I never truly believed that any Australian government, left or right, could willingly kill so many Australian citizens.
194
Send your letter to the politicians.
It is all so preventable you are so right.
Pure delusional incompetence and petty corruption. Alas it appears the pollies will get the message the hard way — by catching it themselves. Only then will they pay attention. Hope its not too late.
161
It looks like the NZ pollies will make some additional entry restrictions this weekend, perhaps sooner. A friend was just embarking for NZ from Germany a couple of hours ago , and it was no go.
Anyway, it’s a fair bet that a novel coronavirus is everywhere in Godzone by now. I make it three days ago that i heard people starting to get a bit of throat infection ;a wet cough , and runny nose. But that’s not it according to the published symptoms. It should be a fever and a dry cough; no phlegm.
So it will be an interesting experiment.
What we should see within a week is a lot of admissions as those with existing conditions start to show up at rates higher than normal.
41
Things should work out okay. The world is getting wise fast and early to the benefits of social distancing
For example https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-simulation-toronto-1.5497184
31
Where did Dutton get infected ? Peter Dutton the Home Affairs Minister recently returned from Washington DC where he attended high-level talks with his counterparts from Five Eyes nations – the US, United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand. Among those Mr Dutton also met while in Washington were with were Attorney-General William Barr and President Donald Trump’s daughter and adviser Ivanka…..
In other words close the borders with the USA NOW
81
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-contact-ivanka-trump-works-from-home-after-meeting-peter-dutton
31
“Coronavirus unfolds, the world wakes up
https://scontent-msp1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/89760871_10220440641018745_7382171126731898880_o.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_oc=AQl4NSRyYOZp6NkzpD_-SO5aW8gB_c0e5oE8rjA1CuJkuXE9swZDNW2ILnO74C8B5ME&_nc_ht=scontent-msp1-1.xx&oh=2d0eb12562986d216e8b6fce1050bdee&oe=5E9204D3
31
Something to look at.
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/zinc-supplements#types
31
Lunchtime UK News & Discussion: all about Sick Pay amounts and compensation (EU to compensate in Denmark….and others (who listens to the detail? ) about cancelled public events, etc….. )
and we have to build up levels of immunity in the Herd …. Is it REALLY too late to eradicate the disease at the current level?
31
This is medieval. An Italian man was trapped in his house for 36 hours with the corpse of his sister who died of coronavirus. He wasn’t allowed out and despite his pleas, no one would come to collect the body until he released a video of his plight.
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/03/12/italian-actor-pleads-for-help-after-sister-dies-from-coronavirus/
51
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-vaccine-canadian-company-claims-to-have-found-a-cure-and-could-do-human-tests-in-weeks/news-story/8652a2d98759d609cf8e73e07d7058fc
Also breaking news that a Brisbane based laboratory have discovered a vaccine – behind paywall at The Australian.
41
Italy now has a similar number of active cases as China claims.
Country | Cases | Active cases | Serious Critical
China | 80,815 | 13,486 | 4,020
Italy | 15,113 | 12,839 | 1,153
71
FYI.
RE NSW HEALTH.
NSW Heath authorties have warned up to 1.6 million people across the state could be hit by the first wave of a statewide coronavirus outbreak with up to 80,000 people likely to require intensive care simultaneously.
Chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant says preparations are underway for 20 per cent of the state’s eight million residents to catch COVID-19.
Health workers in NSW have reportedly been told to prepare for 8,000 Covid-19 related deaths over the duration of the epidemic with the first wave of the virus forecast to last up to 22 weeks.
Dr Chant expects every person who becomes ill will pass it on to 2.68 others on average although this could be reduced through self-isolation, social distancing and handwashing.
“We’re anticipating 20 per cent of the population in the first wave to be affected,” Dr Chant told a NSW budget estimates hearing on Thursday.
She said forecasts showed five per cent of residents affected by coronavirus or up to 80,000 people would require intensive care.
End of transcription.
I humbly ask that If 80000 need intensive care as well as our current ICU patients, and we only have 12000 ICU beds.. What happens?
81
Either NSW health thinks Australia will make an even greater hash of Covid19 than China or they are implying that the Chinese statistics are understated by an order of magnitude. Current Chinese serious/critical cases quoted by WXCycles above are currently about 4,000 but NSW Health says we should expect 80,000. Something doesn’t add up!
50
Yeah models…we know they are always accurate…ask the IPCC….
30
France has closed schools, universities and creches. local elections are going ahead though. Panic-buying at supermarkets near me started in earnest today, even if it had been happening elsewhere a bit beforehand. People on trains all look at each other and wait for someone else to push the button to open the doors. They also avoid holding on to poles. The number of people wearing masks in public is rising daily, but still pretty small.
My workplace (a multi-building campus of less than 1000 people) has told everyone to work from home “until further notice” unless something is “business critical”. If arriving at the office, then there will be a temperature check, and restricted access to areas outside their designated office. “business critical” is actually very hard to justify, and for once, there do not seem to be different rules applied to different people.
I don’t want to catch this, or to get anyone else sick, and am happy to avoid the Paris metro as much as possible, but I still cant decide if the MSM is making this seem worse than it really is, or better than it will turn out to be. The rhetoric from governments is unsurprisingly contradictory.
81
From all the stats i have seen across uk, oz, usa and italy, is the max death rate was 14% for people 90+ in age. Most of the deaths also had pre-existing underlying medical conditions.
10
NYT oped using a computer model to project a million or more U.S. deaths.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html
Sure reminds me of c limited change.
42
That is climate change of course. Damn spell changer.
42
I have a request for all commenting here : please state where you live on the planet !
Jo’s blog attracts global range of readers & commentators.
But our perspective of this COVID 19 disease is a reflection of the local situation around us.
For those who do not know I live in the Adelaide Hills of South Australia.
11
Here in NZ our Ministry of Health still hasn’t told us that Covid19 can be spread by people yet to show symptoms.
From the huge one page notice in major daily newspapers today:
“When a person who has Covid19 coughs, sneezes or talks, they may spread droplets containing the virus a short distance…”
Yes its true but this notices deliberately avoids telling us that we may have no symptoms and yet are contagious
111
A new paper on the effectiveness of control measures in China referenced in WUWT. It is a preprint. I have not read the paper yet but there seems to be an estimate that approx 59% plus of cases are unidentified. That is the first guess at a real number to plug into mortality calculations that I have seen.
Also a snippet from Matt Ridley on the effect of social distancing on the Spanish flu epidemic.
41
Sooooo.. having stuffed up dealing with this issue early to prevent it becoming a plague.
The CCP government then concealed how many people were infected and how many were dying or being killed by it’s policies !!!
But now we are expected to agree that they did a good job ?
BS in spades !
43
OK Bill, as an opinion, that is as good as any other but I cannot see where your assertions are supported by any of the data in this paper. You are welcome to enlighten me.
31
L C , This fact was discussed on this blog quite a bit here and on Chiefio blog as well in February. I search ed on Duck Duck Go just now and got this list of hits.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=%22Wuhan+bodies+burned&ia=web&fbclid=IwAR0PXWEIQX9bU-wUq-kaXtADKYkoB_4upC3J9BbH5GSNBr9FUOdYB_3O8_Q
33
Bill, I am aware of the body of comment on the perfidy of the Chinese but my point still stands. There is nothing in this paper to support any of that.
To expand that to some general comment on the Chinese or on my belief or otherwise in them is invalid.
00
Well worth a read. The direct link is https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1.full.pdf+html Select the pdf preview or the pdf download.
Some notes as I go. The study attempts to model the available data and account for various factors including population movement, “unascertained cases” and quarantine. Unascertained cases includes asymptomatic individuals and those with mild symptoms who did not come to the attention of the health system and were thus not reported.
Study of 25,961 confirmed cases.
“Attack rate” defined as cases per day per million people dropped from 150.9 to 54.1 on imposition of separation and quarantine measures.
Model estimates (Feb 18th) were 26,295 confirmed cases vs 25,961 actual and the model predicted 129,959 total cases. Just to put that one in perspective, if we estimate a 2% fatality rate on known cases that becomes 0.39% of all cases.
The proportion of severe/critical cases reduced over time from 53.9% to 14.7% of “classifiable cases”.
R0 reduced from 3.88 to 0.32 by distancing measures. Recognised that these measures reduced overall community spread but increased infections in smaller groups kept together by restrictions.
The model predicts that the last infection in Wuhan will be on about May 4th. That is obviously well outside the range of the model and depends on all sorts of things not changing but is interesting to note.
The authors say:
I am not qualified to comment on the validity of the modelling but the information presented, at the very least, does not support the armageddon scenarios and does provide support for the effectiveness of reasonable social behaviour changes.
22
Sorry to repost from above, but all China’s numbers are FUBAR.
From my observations the only thing that has stopped this virus from burning through it’s food supply ( 70 plus percent of the population) is strong travel bands, strong quarantines, strong testing and follow up.
Italy is getting close to now doing those. South Korea succeeded resonably well. China, that is another story. They may have succeeded by accelerating the negative, group quarantines of people possibly exposed in human petri dishes, large room, thousands of beds, no walls, common restrooms.
Basically democide – death by government. Same thing in elderly care facilities and prisions. Many stories from China indicate this. As China locked out all external observations, they lose all credibility.
Any nation that decides to treat this like the flu will deeply regret that choice. China, South Korea, Italy, all, to various degrees had their hospitals overwhelmed. Sans the mentioned defensive protocols, this will happen, and far worse. Worse long term economic damage, vastly more suffering and death.
Cov19 is at least 20 times as deadly as the flu ( before overwhelmed hospitals) twice as contagious, and facing zero herd immunity that flus face.
52
LC, I do understand the study supports strong distancing actions and testing. It is the ignoring of untold deaths and accepting official numbers from a closed toltaltarian dictatorship that I object to.
If however the study encourages support for strong defensive actions, then that is somewhat redeeming.
41
What I will say David is that if the CCP provided dodgy numbers, the numbers which they did provide have very similar proportions as the died verses critical numbers and percentages provided by a subset of other badly affected European countries that have large datasets. For instance:
China | Died | % Died
80,824 | 3,189 | 3.95
China | Critical | % Critical
80,824 | 4,020 | 4.97
Ratio of Critical to Died = 1.26
Subset | Died | % Died
27,287 | 1,499 | 5.49
Outside China | Critical | % Critical
27,287 | 1,783 | 6.53
Ratio of Critical to Died = 1.19
Subset = Italy, France, Spain, Japan
The proportions of the “Ratio of Critical to Died” is similar from China to Europe, but the mortality rate is a bit higher in Europe.
50
Hi WX, at E.M.s Musings from the Chiefio site, I predicted they would. See my response to Jo’s comment above here…
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/coronavirus-unfolds-the-world-wakes-up/#comment-2291973
20
Absolutely.
There are many reports and copies of documents proving that is the case. Too many to bother to list including Epoch Times, SCMP, ZH, GN, CG, TWN, War Room, … list goes on.
Cognitive dissonance at its finest to believe all is well there.
They did an excellent job of shutting down the internet/twitter to prevent reality escaping, but it’s there if you bother to look.
But like CAGW belief, many who believe in the fairy tale do not want to confront the facts challenging their world view.
It is just the flu, few weeks, everything will be OK.
Everything has been sorted in China, just a flesh wound:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UijhbHvxWrA
51
Since we’re “waking up”…how’s the conditioning going?
If someone told you during the economic crashes of 1987 or 2007 that there would be an inevitable big crash in 2020 after years of debt-dumping, money-printing and market-priming but that you would not notice or discuss it…
If someone told you even three months ago that you would soon far more open to the abolition of physical cash by March…
If someone told you that a disturbed teen’s advice to the world to stay at home and fret over the planet would suddenly seem sound and be accepted…
If someone told you that the most skeptical people you know would soon be getting a successful consensus transplant, be transfixed by media and rumour in every waking moment and would jump at every headline, quarter-truth and scare story…
What would you have said?
How’s that conditioning going? And what’s next?
74
Ah but here’s the puzzle: what’s “consensus” and what’s heretic here?.
I’ve been fighting the media consensus all the way.
When Chief Medical Officers said “this is the flu”, “we have to get it”, “there’s no point in closing borders” I stuck with the data, the pictures, the on-site reports and the obvious inescapable maths of epidemiology and ancient forgotten history. Instead of talking for engineers and geos, I’m talking for doctors and ICU nurses.
The consensus is that open borders are good and we should not even discuss stopping the flow. This outbreak may be the best way to expose the open border folly, just as it may end up showing people that big-government (the EU and UN) was useless. Globalization fails in so many ways here. It shows homeschooling can work, that nations need to be self sufficient, that relying on China was terrible policy. The crisis may break the sacred “university” grip on higher education too. If people can study remotely online there are lots of ways to become employable without paying the uni’s a fortune.
If someone told me that the smartest hard number people I know would argue there can be no more deadly pandemics *because* the last ten of them were hyped, I wouldn’t have believed it.
PS: Who said anything about wanting to abolish cash? This Goldnerd knows the markets have a crash coming.
151
If someone told me that a virus like this one would come, and everywhere it was treated like a flu, it would quickly turn exponential, and that once that baby exponential became old enough to crawl in some nations, those nations hospitals would be overwhelmed, and those nations then would take strong defensive measures that stopped the exponential; which turned the RO to less then one, and then some people would then call those measures panic, and say, “see the virus wasn’t much” and they would then mock future efforts as panic, completely failing to see that the “panic” is what stopped a far worse disaster.
Sorry for the long sentence, but that was a LOT of foolishness to explain.
72
That was not a red thumb from me David but I do want to discuss “foolishness”.
What takes front and centre in the media is immediately suspect to me, my experience being that they never work for me and they never work for free. If there was a dangerous flu circling the globe but promoting it offered no advantage to the pervasive state then it would be a story among others. If the news was there to inform then the current crash would be front and centre, as in ’29, ’87, ’07 etc. The flu is occupying that space because that’s its role. The manipulation is bolder now because the media-controlling globsters have acquired the means to keep their wars and market-slides off the front pages, regardless of left/right/public/private slants.
Many will say it is not possible to collude on such a level across nations and corporations which are ostensible competitors or even enemies. I can only say that it has happened often and is happening now. Which is why when bombing Germany the allies had to be careful not to hit the Ford factory. Which is why there is scarcely a country on earth now without its ridiculous green boondoggles and a debt the size of Quo Vadis.
I’m hoping that distraction is all that’s happening here, but this is looking like a lot of trouble just to distract. Corbett thinks there’s more to it…https://www.minds.com/CorbettReport/blog/the-rollercoaster-ride-has-begun-1084040674372804608
My belief is that we need first to turn off their refuse media and make a habit of not just looking away from the pervasive state but of thinking away from it.
50
This thread may just be blather, but on Jan 31st, it was stated in it by Anonymous that Wu Flu would take off in Italy and be the focus of the disaster, starting three weeks later:
https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/241674007
It did, and at the time there were no cases in Italy.
20
mosomoso, oh, I agree about the media very sincerely.
With this I have ignored the media, ignored what nation states say, but watched what they do. China destroyed their economy for a reason.
10
“…. and they would then mock future efforts as panic, completely failing to see that the “panic” is what stopped a far worse disaster.” preventative maintenance is often unexplainable to management and the populace unless you stp doing it. Y2K is other example of people (usually experts not in IT) claiming it was all a scam because nothing major happened , oblivious to all that went on to make it so.
30
What’s happened to the blog software? The comment numbering seems to be all over the show.
[Duplicates are appearing and deleting them interferes with some subthreads. Hopefully it’s restored a bit now? – Jo]
61
For those with a bit of time, or are driving, this podcast is the goods (the first 30 minutes give a good summary of the current situation)
Featuring
Michael Osterholm who is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book “Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs” for more info
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-joe-rogan-experience/id360084272?i=1000468027968
or on youtube
https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw
41
The article at the link is of course sales and marketing material but I would appreciate any comments from informed sources.
https://www.getholistichealth.com/80128/colloidal-silver-used-1000s-years-advantage/?utm_campaign=Email%20%233%20%28QDzPr3%29&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Press%20Flow&_ke=eyJrbF9lbWFpbCI6ICJleHBhbWV0amR3QHlhaG9vLmNvbS5hdSIsICJrbF9jb21wYW55X2lkIjogIk5mbmViVSJ9
21
Want to bet that “argyria” is in someone’s future?
https://health.howstuffworks.com/skin-care/problems/medical/colloidal-silver-blue-skin.htm
10
A cartoon . . . . .
https://standeyo.com/NEWS/20_Pics_of_Day/200313.pic.of.day.c2.html
31
Re this Coronavirus BS. Einstein said something like “I dont know if the universe is infinite but I do know for certain that humans are infinitely stupid” Humans have just wasted billions on a nothing burger just like climate change. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/13/evolving-epidemiology-and-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-the-outbreak-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-in-wuhan-china/#comment-2936929. It seems to me that Australians have become notoriously stupid and backward from being a great country with great people. BTW my 2 cents worth cheers
25
I could be wrong. But I don’t recall this important and compelling, graphic case for immediate Covid19 action being shared here. Many millions have shared it. Tomas Pueyo amplifies John Campbell’s points:
“Corona virus: why you must act now”
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Read it. Share it with politicians.
11
From DoH Australia: “As at 06:30 hrs on 14 March 2020, there were 197 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19), including 3 deaths, in Australia”. “As at 11:00 hrs on 13 March 2020, we have 156 confirmed cases”. “As at 11:00 hrs on 12 March 2020, we have 126 confirmed cases.”
That’s up from 25 cases March 1, 74 cases March 7, so continuing to escalate, presumably as more tests are done.
21
I just went to see my doc for my annual oil change and grease and told him about the Doc that gave an old bloke a HIV shot and a flu shot and cured him in two days of corona virus.
His comment was I would not do that for if it is not a prescribe method of treatment he could get into trouble, yet an old bloke could suffer severely and possibly die.
Seems to me like PC and sue crazy public are killing people.
51
South Korea’s way of dealing with this plague is working.
And unlike China, it’s way emphasises transparency and public cooperation
NOT force and censorship as China did !
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and
41
Seems to be plenty of comment about how this virus effects us and what we should do to avoid it but I have not noticed much comment about where, and in what circumstances this one, and others, have developed; much less any ideas to prevent future outbreaks.
21
I know I’m the odd one out but Covid-19 is like the flu, what is different, is the reaction and the media coverage. Both are contagious and both kill. For those aged 0 to 50, the average mortality rate for Covid-19 is 0.2%, while it is 0.1% for the flu. The flu is more contagious, but Covid-19 is on the severer side for illness. The precautions for Covid-19 and the flu are identical, apart from annual flu shots. In the last 4-months, the flu has killed 12,000 people in the US. In the last 1 month in the US, Covid-19 has killed 50.
41
Your theory should be confirmed in NZ within the next fortnight.
As far as we know , the door here was left wide open and community transmission occurred almost immediately (via the mosh pit).
So on the basis that it is everywhere now , we should see the rate of ICU admissions among the immune-compromised , start to ramp up.
This ratio of 80:20 (unaffected: compromised) may hold in many populations around the world , depending on demographics.
So , I’m assuming that I’ve got it, and in a fortnight or so , I hope to tell you how it went.
It is perfectly possible that an attenuated strain arrived in N.Z.
21
Getting hit by an air rifle is in many ways similar to getting hit with a 308, just outcomes vary a bit. You seem very selective in the comparisons of numbers choosing early stage US rather than China, Italy, Iran. The nothern hemishpere flu season is finishing this thing is winding up, so very early days to make comparisons.
I guess it comes down to if you like to get in front of things and have say in events that impact your life or if its better to just let things happen to you.
20
Distraction. It’s an interesting topic, at least to me.
As well as conditioning and prepping through media and entertainment (and drills at John Hopkins) there’s also the cool, edgy intellectual concept.
The term “unexpected event” is not cool or edgy. But get a fashionable intellectual like that good Bilderberger and canny investor Nassim Taleb to come up with a buzz phrase like “Black Swan” and voila! The commonplace is now profound.
So we have a grave but expected event like the inevitable economic crash of 2020, result of all the usual stuff that causes these crashes, plus a lot of new green waste and plunder (thanks, Nassim and buddies). How do good Bilderbergers and canny investors stop people talking about that brontosaurus in the room? I mean, they’d be like sitting ducks if yet another economic crash were to sit at the top of the news so soon after ’07. Nobody’s going to think the crash is the Black Swan this time. We need an extra-big and fluffy Black Swan to curtain off the crash.
And here it is. Top, middle and bottom of the news. A highly infectious, extra-big and fluffy Black Swan. Hey, why not blame it for the crash? (That’s if anyone even notices the crash.)
61
It was a black swan one month ago:-
https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2020/02/15/covid-19-is-a-black-swan/
The depression was called, to arrive for sure this winter , about six months ago ( Michael Every at Rabobank).
31
Yeah, I said so about six months ago too. Just couldn’t crack the headlines the way Meghan and Harry and COVID-19 do.
41
I think there is a good chance emergency powers will be misused to forcibly “penetrate” many community organizations or churches etc by forcing them to hand over member lists if one of them winds up with Cv19…for the “greater good” of course…..this could be part of the bigger shell game. It also could explain why it was not stopped.
Unfortunately I understand how they tick.
31
Remember when the globalists, banksters and spooks got their favourite Aussie, Bob Hawke, to use his phenomenal popularity to impose an Australia Card? Ordinary people and actual conservatives like John Stone resisted. (Professional good bloke Hawkie was less popular than Murdoch and the luvvie media would ever let on.)
How quaint and far away it all seems! Now some would queue to sell their birthright for a free face mask and toilet roll.
30
It’s a little off topic here, but let me tell you a small tale here about identification.
My good lady wife has epilepsy, had it now for 50 plus years.
Because of that, and even though she has been seizure free for periods of many years, she is forbidden to have a drivers licence, now in these most recent years the only form of photo ID.
Over the years it became steadily more and more difficult for her to actually identify herself.
We had a number of required documents that always sufficed.
However, two years back now, when we moved from Rockhampton, the new Rental provisions required as a mandatory thing, photo ID, and no matter how many perfect ID documents we had, it had to be a photo ID.
The only way we could achieve that was to get one of those Over 18 cards here in Queensland, similar in nature to a driver’s licence, (with an image of the card holder on it)
So, we applied for one of them, and it took a number of weeks, and threw up a further anomaly as well.
Once the Licence was ready, we were called into the Dept of Motor Registry offices, and we went to the counter, once called up, after the long wait. She was given her licence, with the following warning.
This card is NOT a legal document to be used for the purposes of identification.
Can you believe that?
I specifically asked about it, and was informed by the same person on the other side of the counter that it is used as such, an ID document, but is not authorised for that purpose, nor is it legal. I then asked what is the use of it, as that is specifically what it ….. IS recognised as, and received no satisfactory response, no matter how much I quizzed the person about it. I then asked about the driver’s licence, and was informed that was different. When I asked how it was different, again, there was no satisfactory response.
Everywhere she is now asked to show her card, I mention to whoever is asking that it is not a legal ID document for the purpose of ID, and no one has been aware of that fact.
The further anomaly thrown up was that we were also informed that both our wedding documents could not be used for the purposes of ID either. The one were were originally issued with is the small one we all get at our weddings, the original with all four signatures on it, attesting to the fact that we were in fact married with the two people involved and the two witnesses, all having signed in front of who performed the ceremony. The second one was the state issued certificate.
When we showed both of these documents, we were told they were not legal documents. I (somewhat facetiously) asked if that meant we were not married, and there was backpedalling from behind the counter, saying that was not the inference here. I then (somewhat facetiously again) asked that I hope that the police were not being called on us. When asked why, I said that across the years, these documents had been used to obtain loans from banks, and that not being legal documents we were then technically guilty of fraud. Again backpedalling, so I added why were we not guilty of fraud, and the person behind the counter said that at the time, they were legal documents. So, I asked the person to repeat that statement slowly, that they were legal documents, and the additional statement on the end of that was that they were not recognised now as legal documents as Queensland had altered the laws so that all persons had to apply for a new Government authorised certificate of marriage ….. at a cost of $60.00. Oh dear who would have believed it, eh!
When I asked if I could see a sample, one was shown, and I asked where the four signatures of the people involved who KNEW it to be true were, and was informed there was no place for those signatures.
So a legal document at the time with FOUR signatures is now (as explained to the both of us) just a keepsake.
So a further State imposed cost for an ID licence with a photo that cannot be used as an ID document, (although everyone does use it for that) and a further cost for a new Government approved Certificate of marriage with no proof of actual marriage.
Oh no, Sir, these are not just revenue raising things.
Tony.
40
Most of us are now taking countermeasures against COVID-19. An interesting question: how much constant reminding from the media, via the latest updates, do we need in order to maintain a healthy mental attitude, on an holistic basis, to help us stay beyond the event horizon ?
21
Good to hear STJOHNOFGRAFTON…my own variation and point of view is that as a countermeasure, one which i think more efficient in the media would be to talk about shutting down the fast food industry and processed junk food industry. Lock it down!! lol. People unable to stay away from fast food outlets should be forced into health food detention clinics. If that does not work, draconian actions like forcing people to have silverbeet and biodynamic rice could be signed into law.
All the junk foods in supermarkets taken of the shelves as of yesterday. Lollies, white bread, etc etc, off the shelves.
Imagine a prime minister banning travel to fast food hotspots would be the first! Imagine the love and lives that could be saved by such simple measures?
The death toll from junk food is a pandemic that is not getting much attention recently. I wonder about that…the countless lives i have seen laid to waste by …….junk food 🙂
33
Excellent and timely question STJOHNOFGRAFTON
21
Yesterday morning the number of countries with cases was 125. It’s risen 21 countries to 146 countries officially affected as of now.
A lot of the new countries are in Africa.
71
Italy’s known mortality rate rose another 0.5% over the past 24 hrs.
Italy | Died | % Died
17,660 | 1,266 | 7.17
Italy | Critical | % Critical
17,660 | 1,328 | 7.52
Imply that of those that are serious cases 93.5% of them died (74% 2 days back). The low number of critical cases also indicates they don’t linger long enough for numbers to build up, i.e. they die quickly. Italy’s known active cases are currently 3,000 higher than China reported today.
81
I can imagine some repressive regime led Countries not reporting this as is happening in Developed Countries.
I really wonder just what is actually happening inside Iran.
Tony.
50
A concise unified reporting like engineering metrology requires standards and agreed upon methods. Under-reporting continues to be a problem IMO.
I wonder if the niqab and the burka is helping to reduce transmission in Saudi Arabia.
40
Also wondering if there are any analogies in the electrical world for the corona. In this instance, the analogy might be, that the transmission of electricity is always subject to ‘transmission losses’ and it might as well be supposed that the common corona virus is subject to ‘transmission losses’ and so that the growth peaks and then the transmission losses begin to add up…the transmission losses in this simple analogy might be that the virus is subject to mutation for example.
It suffers a loss of original DNA during transmission
20
What the F… is biodynamic rice?
What chemical properties does it have that this virus can recognise and be affected by?
Are you not selling a useless, trendy fad with the opposite of scientific rigour? Geoff S
20
ES wonders if the niqab and burka are slowing transmission. Yes, almost certainly affecting the spread of STDs. Geoff
20
According to the Chinese there was only about two deaths outside of Hubei this week, yet the virus is everywhere and in every province. Frustrating to keep hearing the claim that the Chinese have things in hand. Someone is in charge of that spreadsheet and he is making it up.
60
Government releases TV advertising blitz, with a very important last part of the Ad.
How good is that eh! (/sarc)
As I said a week or so ago, I fear for residents of aged care facilities, (and my 91 year old Mum is one of those) left to fend on their own as staff phone in and say they won’t be turning up for their shifts.
It’s okay to ‘say’ that nurses will be deployed to cover in those aged care facilities, but even now I hear they are so short of nurses in hospitals, they have mobilised trainee nurses now.
Also hear that you’re being asked to stay at home if you’re sick, spruiked even by State Premiers now. The cynic in me thinks that if you die at home of COVID-19, that death does not count on the Health portfolios number of deaths in hospitals, eh.
And if single old people die at home, how long before they get discovered, eh!
I reckon that someone (probably a few someones in fact) ‘knows’ stuff, and they aren’t telling us.
Tony.
Link to article with TV ad
100
Just thinking.
I wonder how long before this Ad gets pulled off air.
Government sanctioned age discrimination. I wonder how much thought went into the making (and the approval) of this Ad.
If it stays ‘alive’, it just goes to show that leftist progressive PC is the first thing that gets tossed out the door when the chips are down, eh!
Tony.
50
Tony as young folk can get infected and have no symptoms or very mild symptoms easily dismissed,
This advice seems good to me.
And I too have an interest in the whole issue of ged care homes as my wife works in one.
She does not want the people she cares for to get infected.
And she does not want to run the risk of getting infected herself while caring for the residents.
So for the time being it’s best that young folk stay away until a vaccine is developed or this virus has run it’s course …
50
Dear Jo,
We are being presented with these infection and mortality curves.
I wonder how these are affected by publicity, diagnosis, test availability and resources in general. Any of these factors could actually create the log style curves with even a benign and relatively poorly transmitted infective.
20
Because I use my real name I can’t say much but have been informed that I have been in contact with someone who has been in contact with someone who has just come back to town from a trip and is now displaying symptoms of the virus .
Tests are now underway so in limbo till Wednesday.
70
Coronial virus ???
20
Sorry yes Corona virus , started to get flu symptoms yesterday and contact was Thursday but I’m thinking what I have is just a cold or normal flu .
30
So self isolation is the best option for now Rob
Till you know the results of the test.
20
Yes Bill lucky I’m stocked with booze and happy pills so no issue for me to self quarantine .
60
Largest Veterinary practice in town (Wangaratta) has gone into quarantine due to a positive Corona virus test .
Will be interesting to see what the spread is like in this small regional town .
00
Coronial virus?
That’s reserved for the Windsor-Battenburgers!
41
Spot on Geoff Sherrington….we need at the very minimum a strong coronial virus investigation as well as a coronial inquisition, an inquiry, and lastly a coronial inquest…
00
Important comment by Chiefio on his blog :
“E.M.Smith says:
I saw a report on virus shedding. Peak is at about first symptom onset and is few days before and after … so if diagnosed with symptoms, about 10 days later you are not shedding enough virus to worry (or it is antibody coated and inactivated).
So pretty much by definition, only testing people with symptoms misses half the spreading infected.”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/14/14-march-2020-covid-19-usa-state-of-emergency-italy-over-1000-dead/#comments
Staying beyond reach of the virus seems the only option.
30
Italy gets serious. The Italian Govt. has legislated to make the offence of an infected person or one instructed to self quarantine who breaks that quarantine to be charged with attempted murder.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/12/people-coronavirus-italy-refuse-self-isolate-face-murder-charges-12385790/
Of course Italy always does that for the flu.
40
Does anyone think that our Govt. or anyone within it would have the backbone to make do the same.
30
I’ve seen Italian murder trials. No thanks
20
Do the Italians have resources enough to launch ‘coronal inquests?
There must be a flurry of coronial inquests at this time. They must be stretched to the limit//
00
Here’s an excellent article, deeper and wider in parts than much else I’ve read:
“What Will You Do If You Start Coughing? ‘Stay home’ is not a sufficient plan”
The Atlantic Mar 11 · 12 min read
https://medium.com/the-atlantic/what-will-you-do-if-you-start-coughing-6a3c986b9db6
30
“As I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I shall fear no Coronavirus”
OK, so as this Coronavirus pandemic explodes and the panic goes into overdrive, I think it’s time to offer my input and a bit longer this time.
It would have been a thread on its own but the inability to embed images etc seriously impacts the result so I’ll confine it to my observations and recommendations.
Vaccines:
A team of scientists created a vaccine that may have been able to prevent the deadly coronavirus outbreak, but they were never able to get funding to commence clinical trials, experts told Congress on Thursday.
Dr Peter Hotez, co-director of the Centre for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, testified before the House Science, Space and Technology Committee as health officials confirmed at least 160 cases of the Wuhan coronavirus in at least 17 states across the country.
“We had the vaccine ready to go,” the doctor told lawmakers about a vaccine his team developed to protect against a strain of coronavirus in 2016, but “by then nobody was interested in a coronavirus vaccine.”
Hell – why waste money on vaccines when there are wars to start, countries to invade, governments to overthrow, natural resources to plunder and people to kill.
The US spending on wars and death is now measured in tens of trillions of dollars.
Hey USA – how’s that working out for you now eh?
Buying habits:
The toilet paper frenzy is abating slowly as people have stocked up and the mandatory 1 pack limit is being applied.
Bear in mind that if you don’t have food, toilet paper is not a priority! Grin.
Fresh produce – largely unaffected by panic buying.
Flour, rice, baked beans, pasta, pizzas, OJ, potato crisps, bread, noodles, soaps, disinfectants largely gone.
Note – natural antibiotics like Eucalyptus oil are available and excellent alternatives to mainstream alcohol based products.
Banning of some items like facemasks is now being implemented by sellers like eBay mainly due to price gouging.
Note – the run-of-the-mill cheap facemask is largely a waste of time anyway (so says the US Surgeon General and the CDC amongst others) so save your money.
Even the N95/N100 masks come in SIZES (NOT one fits all!) and there is a very rigorous fitting procedure as used by hospitals which we can all but guarantee is NOT being employed by the average person! I can’t embed a slideshow to show you the procedure but they are VERY VERY thorough.
Panic buying also severely limits the availability of same to medical personnel who genuinely need them.
I talked to an electrical store friend today and he said freezer sales have increased 4 fold. People really starting to stock up !
What to buy (my advice):
Long life products that don’t require food or refrigeration until you’re ready to use them.
As I mentioned previously – stock up on Muesli.
It’s long life, cheap, tasty, nutritious, and you can add yoghurt, honey, ginger, whatever you want to suit your taste.
Make up a large batch and refrigerate. Will last you a week or more.
It’s also very filling so no hunger pangs.
Note – maybe people read my advice on that previously, but Muesli is really selling out fast here, so get stocked up while you can.
Vitamin C.
Now things get interesting!
As I mentioned before, China got 50 tons of this for treatment of patients vi high dose IV.
The results as of today are amazing.
From Xi’an Jiatong University – patients suffering from severe coronary pneumonia (nCov complication) have recovered.
Shanghai Medical Association recommends high dose vitamin C as Coronavirus treatment.
Also, trials confirm it stops the cytokine storm.
Medical recommendations out of the USA now suggest people concentrate on boosting their immune systems rather than rely on masks and future vaccines.
As I said before, people should be boosting their immune systems as a priority.
Now, understand that we’re not talking cures here.
We’re talking boosting your (typically weak) immune systems so that if you do get infected you’ll be in the best position to win out.
If multivitamin and especially vitamin C sales are anything to go by, people are now waking up to that fact!
Vitamin C sold out in supermarkets. BUY FAST, PEOPLE ! It’s going to make toilet paper look abundant.
I’d suggest bottles of 300 in 500mg sugarless variety.
Note – most animals produce their own vitamin C as are highly resistant to coronaviruses, unlike we humans.
Vitamin C is a well known powerful anti inflammatory immune system booster.
You CAN take high doses without adverse effects, as the high dose IV results show.
It’s excreted VERY quickly by the body (half life about 30 minutes) so it’s best to consume every few hours.
Note that due to the excretion rate you need to do this. When people say vitamin C isn’t any good it’s because people pop
a pill for breakfast and it’s all been excreted by lunchtime, leaving you vulnerable for 20 hours out of 24.
Next high priority item to stock up on is foods high in Selenium.
Examples – Yellowfin Tuna, sardines, baked beans, most meats (beef,turkey,ham (high salt content though) etc.
Around 200 grams or so per day is fine. DO NOT high dose on Selenium. Stick to RDI or slightly above.
An interesting link:
Next – Vitamin D.
No pills needed. Get outside in the sun. Even an Australian winter sun is sufficient in most places.
The benefits go beyond mere pill popping as there’s more vitamin D than just the vitamin, as the metabolic pathways are different.
BUT.. you must get sun for maximum benefit. No sitting inside at the ‘puter with a pill Jo. Grin.
ph levels:
The effects of ph levels on viruses are well documented and as most people steer towards acidity, I’d suggest an alkalising agent.
These are getting promoted on tv now too but as exorbitant cost.
The cheapest (and currently not selling out. Hint…) is good old Bicarbonate of Soda.
1/2 teaspoon dissolved in water 3 times a day and see the difference!
The medical non crisis:
Ok, Jo has mentioned (endlessly) the inability of the hospital system to cope with a real pandemic, and she’s sorta right on that.
In Australia we currently have around 700 public hospitals and around 650 private hospitals.
Let’s drop the private ones out, but no doubt in a real crisis the government could order them to assist.
Now we all know there is a hospital overload crisis don’t we, but let’s look at a main contributing factor to that.
IDIOTS!
Yes, the hospital clogging alcoholics, smokers, drug addicts, Darwin Award candidates.
People who seem intent on killing themselves by whatever means and then expect immediate help whenever it becomes necessary.
Based on my research a figure of 10,000 per hospital per year is about average, often emergency cases.
Now the doctors and nurses are damn sick of it, frustrated and exasperated, as they have every right to be, and there have been numerous articles, tv segments, polls etc reflecting that.
So let’s take 700 hospitals and multiply it by 10,000 .
It’s fair to say people and human nature won’t change much.
That works out to 7 million treatments for idiots per year.
Now that’s just under 1/3 of our population.
Given the extremely low morbidity and severe case rates & low population density here now in over 4 months since this started, I consider it extremely unlikely we’ll see anything like 7 million cases.
So…if we given Coronavirus cases priority in the hospital system the hospitals should be able to cope.
Note that Italy is now giving preferential treatment too.
As for the idiot squad – setup dedicated idiot units not part of hospitals, charge the idiots for treatment and let’s watch the idiot count drop when they realise they have to pay the price for their stupidity. End of the queue and you better have a healthy bank account.
Sounds heartless? Well, even doctors are saying the same thing !
As I suggested before too, in a tourism collapse, hotels could be put to good use and used as makeshift hospitals/quarantines.
Indeed other countries (notably China) are doing just that right now.
No need to build more hospitals and wait 10 years when this pandemic will burn out in FAR less than that, as they usually do as they typically obey Farr’s Law of epidemics (at least they all have so far).
Final comment – Italy.
The curious thing is why are they being hit so hard. Seems to be a notably higher percentage of older people than Asia.
The Mayor of Florence needs one massive kick in the butt for his “Hug a Chinese” political stunt though.
How dumb can you get!
OK, that’s it for now. Time to watch Outbreak with Morgan Freeman !
60
Good outline of the weirdness of modern society.
30
Rocket Rod recommended:
Buying Vit-C tablets is a waste of effort and money. If you can’t get IV-administered vit C then get it from rich organic sources (berries and citrus fruit) because our bodies absorb only 10% of Vit-C administered in tablet form. The rest is filtered out by the kidneys (so you know where that goes).
Self administer the organic form several times per day.
20
Covid-19 is not the flu, but I think it will behave the same, so I’m suggesting a mass migration to the Top End might save a few lives.
‘First, the flu virus appears to survive better in cold, dry weather with reduced ultraviolet light. Second, for many of us, the shorter winter days lead to reduced levels of vitamin D and melatonin, which can affect the performance of our immune system. Third, in the winter we spend more time with other people, indoors and in closer proximity, increasing opportunities for the virus to spread.’
The Conversation
41
My daughter had a weird story from regional VIC. A work colleagues partner comes down with bad flu like symptoms and fatigue. Hospitals response is that they wont test him for Covid because we dont have any cases in the region. Not sure how they will ever know if they dont test anyone.
I am hoping something has been lost in the retelling.
90
looks like the thread structure has broken down
30
All on one page
00
Just like to add a couple of thoughts about the current situation and why the social distancing and containment implementation hasn’t been as strong as possible. Firstly, this virus will get here eventually. No matter how good the quarantine is, it will get in somehow, via criminals, etc. So why not go hard immediately? Three reasons. Firstly, human nature! This thing will most likely come in waves (2-3). Unfortunately a proportion of the population will only comply with social distancing for so long. They’ll get tired of it, try to rationalise the risk, and then it will start to breakdown. Social distancing needs to be implemented when the wave or waves are at their peak. Go too early and you risk people not adhering to it. Secondly, you need to think about how the epidemic will eventually fizzle out. There are several possible scenarios. Mutation to a less virulent strain, a vaccine, etc. These can’t be relied upon in the short-to-medium term. Another thing that slows (or stops) the virus spread is when a large enough proportion of the population have had the virus and can no longer pass it on. If a large number of young people get it relatively mildly but then become immune then transmission will be slowed. Thirdly, and this one is a bit grim, but if we are “too successful” in slowing or stopping the spread of the virus at the outset, then there’s a risk that the peak of the pandemic will simply be shifted later in time. Because at some point restrictions will have to be relaxed, or people will not adhere to them as strictly.
That’s my 2c worth.
BTW, I don’t think I’ve ever had such clean hands in my life!
71
Reply to DryLiberal at #59
Doesn’t being “too successful” and shifting the peak till later have the benefit of buying time to avoid overwhelming Healthcare facilities by as much and therefore avoid unnecessary deaths?
It may take longer to get to herd immunity (be it 60% or whatever) but with less casualties.
40
Yes, it can but not if the peak is similar in size. The Healthcare system will still be overwhelmed. That’s why it’s a difficult balancing act – to get to the point of herd immunity you have to have some transmission.
20
🙂 splitting hairs.
Both on the same page.
20
🙂 splitting hairs.
Both on the same page.
10
British Government Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance saying yesterday need 60% of population infected to build natural immunity but could rise to as much as 80% and to expect about 1% death rate overall.
Wouldn’t that be about half a million deaths in Britain? (pop. 67 million), or 150,000 to 200,000 in a country of 25 million like Australia?
20
Seems like areas with higher air pollution are hardest hit, for obvious reasons. Imagine if the virus had not originated in a heavily polluted area, it would have been everywhere before it was detected
20
It was SaxMan on Twitter that first alerted me to Dr. John Campbell’s series of Videos.
https://twitter.com/AccurateReasons/status/1238322402595090433?s=20
30
This bloke from the U.S. Is good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&fbclid=IwAR3CIOoEUyrOFmNIg531BZzUIQS3aDLMHZsKrInJgPesC6WGvman3g1tUyg
Joe Rogan interview
10
How to prove China is NOT trustworthy ?
This is percentage of severe cases in China :
16.86%
16.64%
16.94%
18.61%
21.30%
19.75%
19.49%
20.87%
22.10%
21.83%
20.50%
19.96%
20.26%
20.20%
20.73%
21.29%
21.29%
21.98%
21.58%
22.97%
19.18%
19.27%
19.30%
20.91%
20.09%
20.65%
20.96%
21.14%
22.00%
22.83%
23.50%
23.66%
24.30%
24.88%
25.97%
27.38%
28.04%
28.76%
29.81%
and this is the percentage of death’s compared to severe cases (China):
2.09%
1.89%
1.49%
1.41%
1.44%
1.49%
1.47%
1.18%
3.08%
1.15%
0.32%
1.27%
0.94%
0.82%
1.15%
0.94%
1.00%
0.98%
1.31%
0.78%
0.01%
0.59%
0.52%
0.00%
0.61%
0.48%
0.48%
0.59%
0.48%
0.59%
0.54%
0.52%
0.51%
0.53%
0.35%
0.49%
0.26%
0.20%
They had 3% one day when they reported a lot of cases they didn’t count before. Blamed new procedure.
How is this so strange ? No country with more than 500 cases is even close. Here is the number from today of countries with deaths today and reporting serious cases. (Switzerland and Iran do not and Germany and UK report no deaths today).
11.53%
8.47%
19.80%
60.00%
10.00%
50.00%
3.70%
50.00%
4.44%
50.00%
2.86%
4.17%
And then Italy the last days :
20.46%
13.23%
19.16%
19.07%
16.39%
18.83%
So mortality from serious cases may be 15-20% in Italy but only 0.5 – 1% in China ? Probably not, more probable China under reporting 30-40 times. That means deaths in China is more like 3177 * 35 = 111.195 and actual people that has been infected is more likely 2.8 million and the mortality rate may be about 3-5%.
This also confirm what I hear from friends close to the Chinese government.
90
Can anyone comment on how (Italy for example) categorizes “cause of death” in a patient 80 years old for whom no treatment was offered for COVID19 because a “decision was made” that they would not benefit from treatment?
It doesn’t seem correct to attribute these deaths to the virus as it is impossible to know what would have happened if they were treated. I realize that ICU space is limited so at some point these decisions need to be made…..
BUT! When will it become the pretty, the wealthy, and the well connected that get treatment reliably and to hell with the rest?
Please see video of Italian doctor in previous thread if this question doesn’t make sense.
60
And just like that, the “climate crisis” fades away to a mere, distant memory.
You won’t be missed.
60
Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia
Data is based on media reports and verified with updates from state and federal health departments. Last updated: 8.00pm, 14 March 2020.
https://www.covid19data.com.au
20
“The government imposed bans on Italy despite the chief medical officer’s initial advice that it wasn’t necessary at the the time.”
Weekend Australian
21
The real reason the Chinese closed down Hubei province ? They gave up.
31
We know the death rate is going to go down. But how much. As WHO tells us or the Chinese reports ? Who is trustworthy. Chinese already say mutation caused the virus to escape Wuhan and spread to Europe. Well here is mortality rate so far in France :
8.33%
9.09%
8.33%
15.38%
15.38%
15.38%
14.29%
14.29%
25.00%
25.00%
25.00%
25.00%
33.33%
42.86%
47.83%
61.29%
71.43%
73.33%
80.00%
83.56%
86.81%
88.35%
and then Italy :
27.94%
26.33%
27.36%
28.35%
37.04%
39.01%
38.59%
44.18%
44.68%
46.80%
42.30%
(Last ten days).
Now they cancelled my flight going home as well.
My mother had birthday today. I could not go and see her. She is kind of high risk group. She turned 96 years today. No one to see her. She had flowers and one tart delivered outside her door. She spent the day alone in front of her TV. This is bad. I just hope she will have one more so we can celebrate her.
31
A ban is now to apply from Monday for mass gatherings of more than 500. Yet over 1 million passengers use the trains each work day in Sydney alone. Some 50,000 travellers use the Sydney-Newcastle each day. Many other inter-city links have similar statistics. So how come trains aren’t banned as well given the relative figures and the fact train travelling is actually worse given passengers are couped up in a small environment sometimes for over and hour or two?
41
Time to start a new post for clean threads,Jo.
There are too many posts in moderation which causes all the replies (& replies to replies) to end up as pseudo threads.
Or else the moderators need to step up their efforts and release those originally locked posts so the WordPress engine can tie the posts back into their proper threads
31
Totally agree Analitik, a new thread is needed right now. A new blog software is also essential. I haven’t noticed any other site with this sort of annoying issue where posts are in disarray.
[ Jo has explained elsewhere that we had a high number of duplicate posts in this thread and unfortunately removing them and sending them to trash has upset the numbering order of subsequent posts.
Now aware of the problem and how it can be avoided in future threads , sorry for the inconvenience. ] AD
21
Good video busting a few myths around the virus and some pragmatism. Personally I think those who are calling for shutting down everything are are over-reacting because it will lead to more deaths not less but due to other reasons, such as starvation. We need to stay calm and reach a compromise to avoid throwing out the baby with the bathwater. We have to accept people will die and that a vaccine is a long way away. We just need to be sensible about all this and do the best we can individually to minimise the risks. One step governments should be taking now is to pump as much money as necessary to make all the necessary test kits available to the general public for free. The best way to stall this outbreak is to isolate as many infected people as possible before they have a chance to spread it to others. The only way to do that is to test as many people as possible and do it periodically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1xBiBVH7U4
42
Have I missed it somehow? Why don’t I see India on any lists of infections etc, after all they live next door. Maybe I’m wrong, can’t read everything.
21
MIT scientist Shiva Ayyadurai claims that coronavirus “fear mongering” is a “Deep State fraud” to manipulate financial markets.
Ayyadurai, who is noted for his controversial claim to be the “inventor of email,” has a PhD in Biological Engineering and is running as a Republican in the 2020 U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts.
Responding to President Donald Trump’s claim that Democrats and the media are responsible for inflaming the coronavirus scare “far beyond what the facts would warrant,” Ayyadurai agreed that the panic was being overblown for political and economic reasons.
“As an MIT PhD in Biological Engineering who studies & does research nearly every day on the Immune System, the #coronavirus fear mongering by the Deep State will go down in history as one of the biggest fraud to manipulate economies, suppress dissent, & push MANDATED Medicine!” tweeted Ayyadurai.
11
This is a reply to my post at #75 – which is in moderation at the moment . . . . .
I meant to indicate the words weren’t mine, which was probably obvious enough, and give the source.
01
Jo,
It’s a pity that the thread structure has broken down !
Up above is a comment by Travis with this link : https://www.covid19data.com.au/
( this is a “Good to bookmark” folks ! )
Thanks Travis for that link ! Good for Australian figures !
Reading through it something emerges which is surprising but unexpected:
Australia has had 20 people come here from the USA infected with the virus That is top on the list !
The next is Italy with 17 and Iran with 17 infected people each coming to Australia
China runs fourth with just 15 infected persons coming to Australia
Curiously we have quarantine controls on people from Italy, Iran & China & South Korea.
But NOTHING for people coming from the USA !
Utterly bloody stupid SLOMO, Hunt & Murphy !!
11
Looking at “Travel-related transmissions over time” Chart at https://www.covid19data.com.au/
I have just realised that all 20 of the infected people who flew into Australia from the USA, did so in the past 10 days. ..Since March 6th.
That tells me that the COVID disease was spreading unchecked in some parts of the USA before that date. At a guess California & New York ?
I wonder how that fits with the data available in the USA ?
But still no excuse for the inaction by SLOMO, Hunt & Murphy !
11
It’s not coming, it’s here now.
NSW = 112
VIC = 57
QLD = 46
SA = 19
WA = 17
TAS = 6
NT = 1
ACT = 1
259 cases in Australia
Tip of the iceberg.
It was 71 cases 8 days ago. About 3.5 times increase in detected cases within 1 week. That means every city will now have COVID-19 cases circulating freely, spreading it without much restriction, if any. The time to think it’s still coming is over. We will have close to 1,000 hospital cases by next Sunday, and ~3,000 cases by the following Sunday.
We’ll get about another 10 days of relative ‘normality’ before it becomes clear that we’ll have a major national health crisis before the end of April.
31
Yes, probably the tip of the iceberg now !
Especially with all the un-quarantined arrivals from the USA.
31
S.Korea now making good progress. Mortality rate (closed cases) now below ten percent. CFC rate at 0.9% and they release 29 from ICU’s. Look just good ! Heading for under 2% ! They are doing something right !
51
Italy had about 40% mortality the last week, expected to decline. CFC about 7% and that is expected to raise. Just hope that is not another strain that’s that bad. 7% Now and lots of cases 2-3 weeks to closure could end anywhere. Some say it look like 10-20%. I Pray for my Italian friends.
41
Does anyone else find this strange, coincidental, weird –pick your word ?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/johns-hopkins-and-gates-foundation-hosted-coronavirus-pandemic-simulation-last-october/
Also Willis Eschenbach provides a good analysis of the virus data on WUWT
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/13/the-math-of-epidemics/
21
case, case
cluster, cluster,
BOOM!!!
“Another 22 people in New South Wales have been infected with coronavirus.
The Department of Health says among the new cases are 4 people who have travelled from the United States.
It’s the single largest jump in confirmed cases so far in NSW, taking the state total to 134.
NSW Health authorities say they can’t work out the source of 10 of the new cases.”
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Coronavirus discussion thread
Posted on March 14, 2020 by curryja |
https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-discussion-thread/
Some interesting comments.
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I am going to buy a second-hand spacesuit on Ebay. I should be ok. :).
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