JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Where did Thusday go?
It’s self isolating.
60
‘It’s self isolating’.
Probably not, more likely it’s gone looking for an ‘r’.
80
🙂
00
meh, Thursday is so yesterday
40
A Washington state Republican Senator Doug Ericksen is calling on Governor Inslee to overturn a soon-to-be-implemented statewide plastic bag ban over concerns reusable bags could transmit coronavirus.
130
The checkout supervisor informed us today that Woolies is banning the use of any reused bags (at the discretion of individual checkout operators at this stage). They had masses of their 15 cent bags on hand to flog.
60
News item this afternoon that supermarkets and petrol stations will only accept card payments. NO cash.Another home run for the big brother log of everything you spend your money on. and where it was spent……..
100
If the power goes off they’ll be very quick to back-peddle.
70
I was in my local supermarket a couple of days ago. There was a power outage and it was cash only.
70
Meanwhile in the other WA (Western Australia) we have the ridiculous container return deposit coming in a few months. Seem like a good idea right now?
I linked this earlier today – worth viewing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-QsyDdLUYw&t=2880s
Will probably make your blood boil. A Chinese firm’s emplyees went around Australia buying up supplies (on the warehouse scale) and flew them back to China leaving us all the poorer for masks, sanitiser etc. They seem very proud of screwing us over.
60
Not sure how the deposit thing relates Bull, it doesnt work with cash.
20
Double handling of containers, and people having to travel to depots to get their money back… yeah, not a good idea right now …
40
Here in Northern Ohio, USA, Cuyahoga County banned all plastic bags as of January 1, 2020. On 3/25/2020, a local grocery store sent out an email saying that in their efforts to improve sanitization throughout their stores, they were “Asking guests to refrain from bringing reusable bags into stores”. Hmm, I guess that means we are back to using paper bags, though the last time I visited one of these grocery store after the ban went into effect, I didn’t see any paper bags either.
I guess irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.
(https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=irony+can+be+so+ironic&&view=detail&mid=7ED958F1B505845C54A87ED958F1B505845C54A8&&FORM=VDRVRV)
40
I did buy a few fold-up Woolies bags and cut off their labels (you should pay me, Woolies, for advertising, not the other way round!). These I washed in the washing machine, gentle wash, a couple of days ago and then hung on the line in the sun and wind. They came up well and I shall continue to do this. For many weeks now I’ve packed my own bags anyway. Well trained in England, dontcha know (?!), where that is the norm, but they do have much a longer area at the checkout to give room to do that.
20
What’s the story with this asymptomatic thing?
Are we just talking “carriers”?
Do they already have immunity, or what?
How are they different?
If they are different, what causes them to be so?
50
There could be a period of three to four days when a person can transfer the virus but they have no symptoms. In some case symptoms are quite mild. This is an interesting story from a 30yo French woman who spent tine in Australia 2016-2019, who caught the virus from her boyfriend, He did not develop to a serious state but the woman was close to death when hospitalised:
https://au.news.yahoo.com/healthy-woman-details-grim-reality-of-contracting-coronavirus-095735035.html
Without hospital care should would like died.
This is a more detailed case on how a Chinese woman transferred the virus in Germany before she showed symptoms:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468
The timeline included shows that contact with the Chinese carrier, up to 3 days before she showed symptoms, resulted in infection to others.
50
farmerbraun, reports are that people who become infected are asymptomatic for up to two weeks before symptoms show themselves. The mean period is said to be about five days. It’s also suggested some people show no symptoms at all after two weeks, yet still shed the virus for a period thereafter. I don’t think there’s a suggestion those who’ve had the virus remain infectious for an extended period but i’m happy to be corrected by anyone who knows otherwise.
The discussion on this blog has recently been around whether and when to wear a mask. Early advice suggested not to wear a mask on the basis it wouldn’t protect you from being infected. The thinking is now evolving. If you take into account the evidence in the first paragraph, it is logical that everyone should wear a mask until communities are tested clear of the virus. The reason being that if you don’t know who the infected are because they are asymptomatic, insisting everyone wears a mask, mitigates the unknown carrier risk.
The above is why i’ve been advocating for not only social distancing. We need to build layers of redundancy into our thinking on this virus. We should keep a safe distance from each other as well wearing masks and washing our hands more regulary, etc. The collateral benefits will also be huge in reducing the seasonal influenza mortality rate. It could be a win win situation for society where less people die overall.
The biggest problem with getting everyone to wear masks is that those under forty don’t believe they’ll die from the virus or otherwise be badly affected. Anecdotally, they don’t seem to care much about keeping their social distance either.
My belief is that once mask wearing is broadly adopted, we’ll see shops opening again; as the masks allow a closer operating distance between humans. hospitals present a great example of this. There are medical negatives to wearing masks but they are outweighed in most clinicians view, by the benefits. There is a youtube video below on how to fit and remove (don and doff) a mask properly.
It strikes me that those who have passed an antibody test and are definitely free of the virus, should be able to signify this in a simple semiotic manner e.g. a simple lapel pin, badge or similar that could be easily verified until the virus has been largely eradicated.
https://youtu.be/HluIkTbTBIw
10
So that’s it? Not very sceptical really is it?
Is it even science?
Let’s take a look.
1) “reports are that . . . ”
2) “is said to be . . .”
3) “it is also suggested . . .”
4) ” My belief is …”
And people who show anti-bodies for coronavirus should wear a prominent “LEPER” sign , and move to the other side of the road.
Far out.
Anyone else got anything?
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farmerbraun, presume you’re not attempting sarcastic wit. I’m happy to provide citations in another forum. If you want to start running fallacy checks by all means start that monolog.
Where’s the logic in someone whose illness was ameliorated wearing a “LEPER” sign?
I won’t bother next time.
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You’ve been triggered. LOL.
Did I say a leper sign?
Silly me . Of course I meant ” a simple lapel pin, badge or similar that could be easily verified”.
A bar code should do it , surely?
“passed an anti body test”?
So compulsory test for all?
Yeah mate , don’t bother. For at least 2 minutes.
13
Has anyone else been concerned about the oil price?
It is down from around US$65 to US$25 (WTI).
Are we going to see a 60% reduction in our fuel prices?
50
Of course we won’t see a 60% price reduction.
The base product, crude oil is only a very small cost in the process of supplying fuel, be it petrol or diesel, compared with the costs of transporting the crude oil to the refinery, storing it, processing to produce the usable products, transporting those products to the distribution centres, storage again, transporting to service stations, storage and then dispensing the fuel into vehicles. By far the largest costs are electricity for processing and transferring to and from storage tanks, the capital funds invested in the storage and dispensing facilities, and compliance with all the Dangerous Goods Regulations imposed at all levels of Government. Then on top of all those costs are the various taxes imposed – around 40c/litre of dispensed product. And for every litre of petrol put into a car, there is a product loss of vapour into the atmosphere of around 10% for every fuel transfer and storage stage between the refinery and the user.
With all those costs you can see why a service station makes more profit from a cup of coffee or a Mars Bar than from a typical average 35litre fuel sale!
110
The largest single cost item in the purchase price of fuel is government excise. That is not going to reduce.
The “WHY” is simple – Russia and OPEC.
My understanding is that USA is purchasing while the price is so low to maximise their strategic reserve. A very smart man is Mr Trump.
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Is the excise calculated on the price for the crude?
20
I think Howard made it a fixed cost for each particular type of fuel and is at least 40cents/litre. NO ONE ELSE is getting anything like 40 cents for their contribution to pump price (including the crude supplier).
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too right indeed! And what are our pollies doing?
As far as we know, they’re running round in ever-decreasing circles and not even thinking about increasing our abysmally, pitifully inadequate strategic reserves.
After the toilet paper debacle, who thinks the behaviour around suddenly short supplies of fuel, or even the hint of it, will be any more civilised?
40
No – two factors
1. The big component of bowser price is taxes. The bowsers are point sources of revenue for both State and Federal Governments not necessarily tied proportionally to the base price.
2. You provided numbers in USD. The comparison would be more meaningful in AUD. AUD is down 30% compared with USD so far this year.
50
As promised with nuclear power oil will become so cheap they will pay us to use their petrol. I don’t need to use the sarc tag do I ?
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Peter Fitzroy, Good question. I’m not going to go into a detailed refutation of Bruce J’s comments. I am an investor based in Europe who has owned and operated a network of Service Stations in regional and rural Australia for twenty years. The simple answer is that once the exchange rate is taken into account, retail prices should (but won’t necessarily) reduce by close to the percentage reduction in barrel prices.
From a consumer perspective, what you are seeing at the moment from almost all capital city fuel retailers is nothing short of profiteering. The exception is Adelaide. Margins on wholesale price are close to 30c a litre on average (weighted) across all products at a retail price of $1.30 per litre. The ULP91 wholesale purchase price inclusive of all the pre-wholesale items Bruce J mentioned is sitting under a dollar in almost every coastal and major regional location.
There may be some profiteering occurring upstream of retail but it’s usually not the case. If there is, the wholesale price effect would be minimal and/or short term.
My best suggestion is to download one of the free fuel price monitoring apps like Fuel map or motormouth. Their data is required by law to be correct in near real time. Shop around. There are retailers who believe in offering reasonable prices to their customers all the time.
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Sunni,
I bought ulp91 at aud$102.2 A few hours ago, inland from NovoCastria. I was shocked.
When traveling past that spot I buy regularly.
Most other retailers are 20C dearer.
KK
30
Great to hear. I personally use a fuel price tracker app to keep an eye on competitors from the other side of the world in real time. Simple but highly effective. We encourage our customers to use these Apps.
30
Peter i am far more concerned with the really serious matters like . . .you know . . . . crickets and that.
02
Mobilisation of the army reserve? Are we about to get Jo Nova’s lockdown solution implemented? Governments seem to have been edging towards this for the last week. Can not wait to see the chocolate soldiers patrolling the streets trying to keep a population used to liberty under control. It could get ugly.
All so un-necessary. Had the government shutdown international arrivals when the first case was reported outside China we would not be at this point. Even then had they kept up the supervised quarantine system they started with we would not be talking lockdown. But oh no, like all recent Liberal governments it only took a few communist stooges on Twitter to call them racist for them to wet their pants and switch to the idiotic self quarantine system.
We’ve done this to ourselves, so go easy on the soldier boys and girls when they come to your street. Save you anger for the ballet box!
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Remember when Dutton/Morrison were ridiculed by the left wing media (ABC in particular) for placing the first evacuees from China on Christmas Island?
Now the left wing media says they are not doing enough.
Very hard task-masters are the looney left.
120
Sounds lik a a re-run of this description:-
“Don’t know what they want and will fight anyone to get it”
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So is it really the case that the armed forces of Australia cannot put a lone soldier on vigil at every citadel , cenotaph , monument , memorial throughout the country on Anzac Day?
Because if they can’t . . . .
Former Sergeant Buglers and Drum Majors would like to know.
02
Some informative commentary on the virus crisis at quadrant…
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/opinion-post/logic-the-first-casualty/
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2020/03/flatten-the-curve-fatten-the-crisis/
Also this article by JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
21
Notice how something like this will totally fade away now that there’s something ‘real’ to worry about.
For all those people with rooftop solar panels, I’m sorry, but your power bill will be going up. With all of you now either out of work and spending more time at home, or in isolation, or working from home, then your residence will be consuming that rooftop solar power, instead of feeding it back to the grid, and in many cases, (those with smaller rooftop installations) then they will be consuming more from the grid anyway.
It’s only been a short time I know, and while I am still looking at all the data on a daily basis, and still recording it, but it seems that overall total power consumption is either the same or even a little higher than for the same days in the year as last year. Most of the reduced power consumption in Industry and Commerce is being taken up by the increase in the residential sector, but again, it’s still early days yet
We can be thankful for one thing though. All of this is happening in the benign Season of Autumn, when overall power consumption is considerably lower than in the two large power consuming Seasons, Summer, and Winter.
Those coal fired power plants are still using this time of lower consumption to shut down individual Units on a rotation basis. There are currently two Units down in Victoria, four down in NSW and three down in Queensland, but those still delivering are supplying just a little under 70% of all generated power, and that percentage also takes rooftop solar into account, as without that it’s closer to 74/75% from power plants.
There has been little change in the power output from those coal fired Units, still working as they always do.
There is less power generation from natural gas and hydro sources, but again, that’s also typical for this time of year.
Wind is pretty much average, operating at a Capacity Factor of 29.5%, and delivering around 8.5% of all generated power, and read that again, just 8.5%, and now imagine how much wind power would need to be ramped up to reach 50% power from renewables, currently around 24%, with more than half of that from hydro, and then to realise it needs to be achieved by 2030. (It won’t happen)
Again, see how totally unimportant it has all become, and now realise just how REALLY essential something like electrical power actually is, and be thankful so much of it comes from a source that actually can be relied upon to deliver it so reliably.
Tony.
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Tony can you tell us the last time NSW did not need to import power from VIC and QLD. every time I look at the AEMO dashboard they are 1Gw short of what they need. If Liddel is closed as AGL want to do I assume that we will see mass and frequent blackouts.
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This video is like watching a trailer of a movie about the stages of forming a NWO. The trouble though it’s real.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=AoLw-Q8X174&feature=emb_logo
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A few points. This from my response to BOYFROMTOTTENHAM who proposed a let’er’rip approach with herd immunity the object.
No, that is not a solution. It is an optimistic hope which will certainly cost hundreds of millions of lives and may not achieve the herd immunity at all, so for nothing. There is no expectation that anyone can develop long term immunity, a cornerstone of herd immunity. It may kill you the second time around if you survive the first. Then it becomes endemic in our society, so waves of plague for ever, if the human race survives it. And then you get mutation.
This stoppable. All viruses are stoppable. AIDS is stoppable. People just have to stop spreading this inanimate piece of feral chemistry, made only in the body and transferred by touch or aerosol. It can be utterly wiped out by us today. At no cost in lives. And then the others.
We do not have viral rabies in the country. Should we introduce it? Of course not. And we can eliminate AIDS and rabies and Corona VIrus and in fact all flus. WHy not? WHat is the real cost of these things economically too? A lot of these economic costs are simply a cost of stopping the machinery of business for a few weeks. They are not real costs. Money is fundamnetally worthless. It is just used to exchange goods for services. Or rent things, like money itself. And we no longer even use pieces of paper.
No, we must kill this thing. Herd immunity is a terrible and unnecessary path of unlikely success which could doom our species.
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The “herd Immunity” theory is happening right now in the Philippines, Indonesia
And in the African countries.
The governments of these countries do not have the capacity to stop the virus and do not have the money to fund any decent medical response.
This virus is spreading in these countries at a rapid rate…
So watch this space…I suggest we will be stopping visitors from these countries for the foreseeable future.
So much for the Globalised connected world !
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Did you get bored with the gardening , bill ?
Earlier, you wanted to keep the “unthreaded” areas virus free ?
…….i suspect you may be infected !
20
Fashions come and go.
10
What is the evidence that it is not happening in NZ( and many other countries I imagine) , where the essential workers carry on as normal with 2 metre “social distancing” which is pretty stupid in turbulent air flows such as a pressurised food factory?
Ah but talking is now verboten in these workplaces.
Because . . .you know . . the emergency.
Bill I’m not trying to wind anyone up, but I’m increasingly of the view that the “suggestion” that 80% of us will experience little , or even nothing is true. Where did that idea come from?
Is it true that there is only a “mild” form?
22
And a comment on the huge subject of the ‘cost’ of stopping this corona virus. What cost?
As I wrote above, money is just used for barter. This started around 600BC. The Roman world was huge but you were paid a salary like the egyptians in two things, salt or beer. What else did you need? You could trade these. Thus the word salary from sal for salt.
Is gold valuable? Yes, we all agree. But can you eat it, a question which is very important if you are starving.
And in fighting this corona virus by stopping the huge engine which exchanges money for goods and services instead of barter, what is the real cost? No building is blown up. No cars are destroyed. Isolation is boring but there are no real costs in staying home except a few weeks of rent or mortgage. You have to eat anyway.
It’s only a lack of income in a world run on money. And the money itself does not even exist. It is a number in a computer.
As Margaret Thatcher is famous for saying, government who have no money, only our money and they will use our money to help cover the three weeks And the banks who also have our money. And the landlords who have houses and flats which would become worthless in a general collapse for the sake of a few weeks rent. Because the alternative is that everyone is broke simultaneously. And everything is worthless.
You cannot foreclose on a whole country. So the governments plan to give us some of our money back, a few weeks of it. So we can give it to the landlords and banks, so they can give it to someone else who puts it in the bank. Or buys food from a farmer. And they all pay their taxes. It’s a giant money go round but is there a real cost in stopping it? Yes, because it might fall apart.
This is a war of humans against virus trying to kill them. And we are united like never before. We can win this. And we have to do so.
AIDS can be wiped out. Rabies (another bat virus) does not exist in Australia and we don’t want it. Many of these viruses can be wiped out.
The real reason we are fightly cleverly and this is the intereting bit, by doing absolutely nothing is clear . The government agrees this is sensible because the scale of the tragedy of spreading the disease is unthinkable.
Even if cremation is free and fast. If there was ever a reason to have a government, it is now.
Then we need to work on removing other viruses.
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And consider too a general economic collapse. Your house is worthless. No one has any money to buy it. Your greatest asset is gone.
Shares are worthless because no one can afford them. Food drops so much farmers cannot afford to grow it because of the cost of diesel
and the government gets no taxes because no one earns anything. The whole country is unemployed.
No, a few weeks of doing nothing should not have this result. Just put it all on hold and the people who have our money can give a bit of it
back for a few weeks. Or simply forego the income.
Simple.
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Biggest 3 day gain in the U.S. stock market since the 30’s . It’s classic buying into a bear market, a huge dead cat bounce. Happened multiple times in the 30s, just like it is hqppening now. People are deperate for optimism that the market will recover. Its over
The global unemployment has hardly started. It will continue for months. No real pain yet. Going to take a long long time to recover from this
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I wonder. WWII did wonders for unemployment which was 40% in Australia and 25% in America. Jobs appeared overnight, making things quickly which were expected to be destroyed quickly. Ostensibly a huge waste but America went from a basket case after the dust storms and farm collapses of the 1930s to the booming economy of the 1950s. It shows what pump priming can do.
And it was done with ‘war bonds’, because you can hardly tax people who have nothing.
And it was the end of servitude. Who need servants when you had a dishwasher, running hot and cold water, shiny new clean surfaces which only took a wipe, vacuum cleaners, television, milk shake makers, microwaves, washing machines and the family car. And so much more. It was a new world where the poor had more servants than the rich and near full employment.
It’s all about the velocity of money and who is in the loop. And there isn’t much to buy of permanent value, except gold, diamonds, real estate and perhaps shares. Everything else is in the eye of the beholder, like a new sports car.
No, I think it will be fine and it will take almost no time to recover from this. Because so unlike war, no damage was done. And maybe people will want to make their own pharmaceuticals in their own country.
80
Yes I agree with you except that a lot of people, especially the well to do and those with stock market pensions and those who invest in multiple condos are heavily leaveraged. aits going to be q huge mess
Look where Trump has pumped trillions qnd trillions of public money the past 4 yearsto stimulate the economy. its not with the 70% who have little
31
Unfair I think.
Trump may have pumped money to employers (because they employ people) but it came with conditions. He has also done a lot of other things to improve the lot of the poor working people. Manufacturing is coming back to America.
60
Actually Raving, it is. There are more black people and immigrants in work
now than has been the case for around 60years, and their incomes are higher.
That is because Trump coerced a lot of US companies back on shore. The industry
assistance funds were one part of the package. The other was promising to hit them
with 20% tarrifs on their US-made-elsewhere goods when they tried to sell them into the US market. I dare say also that argument deterred many other companies from heading offshore for the cheap manufacturing bonus and probably proffered inducements to make the move.
Trump, maybe inadvertently as a side gain, was again ahead of other nations, like us,
whose governments recently got the wake call that they had moved too much to China when
China made the disguised threat that, if anyone kept annoying it as the origin of this
viral pandemic, it was making most of the drugs we needed for everything, not just the
COVID-19.
80
The Canadian Uk US and Australian economy have all been booming for the same reason. It is fueled by immigration which keeps a demand for new houses items and services.
You might hate immigrants but they do wonders for the economy. It doesnt take much stimulus to inflate demad to profitability
02
Yes, but that is not how it works. Kevin Rudd did this. Sent cheques to everyone. They spent the money on luxuries. Then it was gone. Who benefited?
Socialism is about taking the money from the rich and making people equally poor. The only hope, as in Russia, is that the rich spend and through their spending, create jobs and wealth for everyone else.
Trump understands this better than politicans like Biden and Sanders who have been public servants all their lives and achieved nothing. Donald has a skill set missing in most politicans. If anyone knows how to kickstart an economy, it is Trump not lawyers like the Clintons and Obama. They live off the hard work of others but create nothing themselves. As Hillary said, after eight years in the White house, they were broke.
50
And there is a concept that money is the object. Not for most people. If you are worth hundreds of millions, let alone billions, the money means nothing. Achievement means more. Ask Malcolm Turnbull. Ask Donald Trump. Ask Michael Bloomberg or Bezos or Gates worth scores of billions. Who really wants ten houses and three yachts and multiple aircraft. And people who only want to know you because of your money.
However they are in a position to do what governments cannot do. Run businesses. It is what they do and what a million public servants cannot do. That is why you prime the pump. And some of the biggest companies are hiring.
It is odd that people think the sole object of rich people is to make even more money, vastly more than anyone could spend, that it is all one great competition. Perhaps. However when you look at the careers of very successful people, you find they put it all one the line many times when people would less guts would walk away. So why do they do it? The sense of achievement.
60
Trump does not pump money. Only Congress can pump money. And they do it very specifically. The President has very little leeway on spending.
20
Unemployment was 11% in Australia at the start of WWII, and 17.2% in USA. The Americans used Keynesian stimulus to try to deal with the Great Depression, Australia did not. Australia came out of the Depression years before the USA.
50
It might be worth checking when Australia and various parts of it went into recession and then depression cf the USA, bradd.
10
“The global unemployment has hardly started. It will continue for months.”
If it’s less than a decade then we’ve got away lightly.
10
You can’t eat money I’m told !
20
Especially when it becomes digital. Some EU nations are seriously thinking of going down that road.
10
You forget one thing. If and when things do get as bad as you hypothesise, it won’t be a pretty site. Chaos will rule. Mayhem will be the order. Then we will have draconian actions placed upon us. Martial law will be the norm. Etc. etc., etc.. So be careful, you might get want you are wishing for.
40
No, we are one week in and I see nothing of the sort in any country. What chaos? What mayhem? And the view from my window is of parks and gardens and cars, no people. But you can’t have everything.
It is fascinating to think of the 30,000 people in Cruise boats doing nothing waiting for entry to Australia (passengers and crew) wishing they were on land for the three weeks.
And another 30,000 people in lock down who would rather be on a boat for three weeks, doing nothing.
Human nature is perverse. You home is your castle, your refuge, your safe place away from the madding crowd. Until you are told to stay there. Then it’s your prison, your torment, your boredom.
Doing nothing for a few weeks should not be punishment. It should not produce chaos and mayhem. In fact if we did it every year, we could wipe out a lot of viruses. That sure beats being sick for weeks, each in turn.
And there is no Martial law. Almost everyone is doing exactly as they are asked to do. For their own good and the good of everyone else.
70
Essential services as described here in Canada and also Australia are mostly everything open, expept that buisinesses such as banks and manufacturing and construction are startingto close down regardless. As the infection spreads and govermnents try harder totighten the social distancing, way more buisnesses will close down.
surely you are looking at 50% or more of the workforce out of work.? Hardly a lockup without that
20
30k people on cruise boats? The are supposed to be 15k Canadians now stranded in India. How many hundreds of thousands of Australians are still outside Australia? Read that over a million Canadians go south for the winter. The global pandemic has been fueled by people with money to spend by travelling. Just look at all those returning from Italy
40
It will be fine as long as people who have lost their jobs due to the closures are paid by the government. In the US such people will be paid 100% of their salary for 4 months. You painted a picture where everything has stopped. That’s not going to happen so stop exaggerating.
20
Hope things aren’t brewing. On the news items today there was a report that
in country Qld, city plated cars have had their tyre slashed. Probably they
are picking on the wrong people. They aren’t the ones that have come raiding, by bus
loads and cleaned out country stores. Look for the black marketeers.
20
We should stop the virus. I think it can be done.
The means is selective and targeted quarantine.
To do that we need testing, which is coming, better and faster. It would be helpful if we had somewhere to actually quarantine people. At home is a poor substitute for a quarantine station.
We also need to restore our economy ASAP.
If the Trump pill works it will take less time to get on top of the virus. I rang the supplier of hydroxychloroquine (Plenequil) , sanofi-aventis australia pty ltd, today. They said they had stock but it is restricted to approved indications, That does not include Coronovirus prophylaxis or treatment at present.
Clive Palmer says he is doing the reverse of stripping our resources and say he cam import 26 million chloroquine tablets on private jets. Apparently the Federal Govt has asked him to go ahead (Herald Sun today). The media are panning his message!
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/clive-palmer-buys-huge-news-corp-ad-pushing-malaria-drug-as-possible-coronavirus-cure/ar-BB11LQpa?li=AAgfIYZ
50
In moderation again. It is mention of either Trump of Clive Palmer
20
Small anecdote about google business.
Google Business decided today to shut my business down. Google put up a RED BANNER over my company name with the following statement “TEMPORARILY CLOSED”. I work home office and I have an office space downtown where I work alone as well. WTF ! They decided to override my business saying I’m temporarily closed!!!! I can’t change the status since google is now having problems with staff due to the coronavirus. That means it’s up for review by google as to what status I will be able to show on google business.
This is one reason I’m no big fan these business concepts. Anything for free is most often going to mean you will be subject to the whims of whatever is hyped at any given time. I had decided to test google business to see how it works and what it could bring for me or any of my clients should they decide to use this tool. However I cannot recommend using google business for anyone. This isn’t very professional.
Mass hysteria and hype are never a good recipe. Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. The fallout when this is over will have repercussions that will last more than just a few months.
31
Really? Are you being punished for getting links from “unpermitted” sites?
20
It’s not a punishment but an algorithms problem. I can’t show you a screen shot of it. But when you search for a restaurant in google you’ll often see the restaurant and google reviews. There you will see business location, street view and the reviews from customers. This feature can also be used for small businesses and large companies as well. It’s here that they activated this feature with a red panel and „Temporarily closed“. I was simply surprised that google would do something like this on its own without consulting with its users.
You can guess my business name based on those wonderful CO2 infographics I keep posting on your blog 😉
21
I have a terrible feeling about this shutdown.
Terrible.
It may be,,,,, no I better not go there.
20
It’s O.K. You are among friends . Some of them are deniers, but that can be O.K. too.
Just don’t deny the wrong thing.
Skeptic is no longer a word anyway.
01
It maybe the crash and burn so long predicted, but I think not.
There will be turbulence through the transitioning to a new world order, winners and losers. It would be prudent for the government to put a moratorium on business takeovers during this sensitive time, to alay any fears among the populace that Australia is going to sell the farm to a Hong Kong shelf company.
40
Really? That’s outrageous.
The BIS is not JUST a Hong Kong shell company.
11
‘There is growing concern within the Morrison government about how to handle foreign takeovers of Australian businesses which have ended up in financial strife as a result of the outbreak of the coronavirus.
‘The Foreign Investment Review Board is bracing for attempts by foreign companies, particularly from China, to take over distressed Australian businesses and assets.’ SMH
00
It’s correct traditionally surgical masks were used to protect the patient from the surgeon.
What one decides depends on what one reads. Healthline says it has been shown to slow the spread
of influenza as a supplement to doing the officially recommended spacing and hand washing. It’s
not great as a virus sieve. For that you need the N95 facemask which has a finer filter material
and is classed as a ‘respirator’.
All masks need to be close fitting. Face masks don’t stop aerosols from entering the eyes.
AS they filter, it is essential not to touch the outside of the mask and then the face and it
is recommended they not be reused.
Prior to this viral agent from the SARS-COV-2 class of influenza bugs, there was no recommendation that masks be used. I wonder if people wearing them hasn’t compelled a re-look at them.
With the surgical mask, it is common for the side section to have a gap unless stuck down to the
skin with tape. That gap provides for both inspiring unfiltered air and expiring whatever the wearer has (from practical experience) unaware that you inspiring or blowing exhaled air laterally.
So, I wouldn’t argue with Jo, but most here are more practiced with computers than me and
you can look up face masks. Apart from this blog I haven’t seen an official recommendation
to wear a mask, but that could be a mask preservation move due to very limited supply for
the frontline carers, at this stage. However, masks are nothing more than an assistance to the
recommended measures.
When one reads today that this virus remains active on surfaces from
anywhere between a few hours to 9days depending on the surface, it would seem that the
washing of hands along with fastidious cleaning of surfaces we use, take for granted
and rarely if ever bother disinfecting normally, may reap greater returns. It would be a pity to
wear a mask all day, touch a surface and one’s mouth and undo all that uncomfortable preventative
action you took all day.
30
Yes, surface cleaning. Especially the few surfaces you actually touch. And door handles. And bannisters. And push plates. Simple enough it is done routinely and incessantly on the best cruise liners. And this prevents a whole lot of disease transmission. My pet hate though is the toilet with the dripping wet doorhandle. Or fiddly lock. You should be able to walk through such places using your elbows.
When I first went to Europe, I was amazed to see the public toilets had no gender and no doors. Screens at best. And no one cared. Couples walked in together. Here in Australia I was equally amazed when a third toilet turned up at the Jam Factory. I forget what was on the door, but it should have just read ‘confused’. Maybe a Scotsman in a kilt would be the best icon.
30
Yes, TdeF. It can’t be long before those electronic sensored taps start replacing
the traditional levered ones.
I’m also wondering whether there is such a thing as a UV Torch, or whether it would require too much energy to be battery-driven and how long UV would have to be aplied. It could
save a lot of fuss of fighting to get alcholic or soap based cleaning agents for
disinfecting households – and internal car parts like, everything, I guess. I presume
that eventually you could talk people out of trying to use it to get a suntan. It would
have to have the appropriate wavelength to do the job, I suspect. One would have to
look into its use as an antibacterial agent as well as an antiviral, and wear an appropriate
eyewear protection. The dentists use such an implement, but that’s to activate their filling
compounds, not as an antiseptc.
50
Not a bad idea. Great for viruses I would hope, but how comprehensive given the contours of our hands remains to be seen. It would be hard to get complete coverage.
I think the old hot air blowers might be good too, but suspect no one has studied their effect on viruses. And coverage is substantial. I suspect the watery shell protecting the virus is unlikely to survive.
However like anything which kills living things, there must be associated dangers using UV because we humans fall in the same category.
30
How about giving your mask a 2 minute microwave oven blast?
50
Now that would work! The virus would be destroyed in just seconds. The microwaves are absorbed preferentially in any conductive material like water and that would instantly boil the sheath on the virus. Masks of course are generally for all sorts of things, bacteria, splashes, particles and not viruses. However this idea would mean masks used specifically for protection from corona virus could be endlessly reused. And that would be as useful as hand washing.
Just be sure to take it off first. Or you will have trouble closing the door.
60
It is why alcohol works so well on viruses. It releases the surface tension, dissolves the sheath and the virus falls apart. Microwaves however would blast it to bits with steam and energy. It would be a very interesting experiment. 2 minutes would cook food. Viruses in a matrix of otherwise dry material would absorb all the energy instantly. Wow.
20
Perhaps this article? As said, the fact that the mask is dry and not electrically conductive would concentrate all the power into whatever water was around. As expected “Autoclaving and microwave treatment for as little as 20 sec destroyed the infectivity of all four viruses.” The DNA though remained, which is a puzzle. They are clearly making a distinction between infectivity and whether the DNA is intact. I would have thought these were the same thing.
Microwaving masks for 20 seconds may be a simple method to allow their reuse as a virus shield.
20
Small UV are being sold to sterilise masks.
20
Peter C, great idea save for the the metal strips in many N95 masks. how do we get around the usual sparking?
40
Metal Strips? Oh Dear.
Maybe a 10 sec burst would be ok. It is said that alfoil in the microwave could destroy the whole oven. I am not sure why.
10
Hi DOC
Most stamp and banknote collectors have these now. There’s two different wave lengths available: 366 nm for testing flourescent papers, repairs etc; and, 256 nm for tesing phosphorescent papers and printings. Each of mine run on 4 AAs.
There are larger ones that operate off mains power. You can make one yourself. Buy the bulb. There are three levels of UV bulbs available UVA (315nm to 400nm), UVB (280nm to 315nm) and UVC (100nm to 280nm).
But you need to be very careful of your eyesight with UV.
20
You need to watch those flourescent papers though. They can be self-raising. Just Like Sydney Flour.
https://youtu.be/sCTk0QnbD2M
10
Thanks sceptical. It’s something that would take a lot of time to work up,
starting with the microbiology. Which bugs are and aren’t sensitive and how
long and at what intensity. The eye sensitivity to the dental units is well known,and skin tanners have almost been wiped. Using light as a decontaminating agent
would be starting anew, but I dare say most of the basic work would already be known
in the science areas – just as you have experienced with your work. We already zap flies.
I was thinking mainly of cleaning surfaces, not so much as a skin agent.
I don’t think that would make a pass with the Ther. and Drug Admin., but
surfaces appear to be a big part of the viral threat.
20
Here is as good a story about catching the corona virus as any
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kamal-khera-covid-19-nurse-positive-1.5510781
There is another one about how 60 people caught it at a Newfoundland funeral home. Lots of hugging and handshaking. Can post that link too if anyone is interested
10
SOME DISTRACTION FROM ALL THE VIRUSES GOING AROUNG 😉
PLEASE SHARE and EDUCATE
The two links below are a series of educational charts on CO2 and Climate Change. These charts are as unbiased as you can make them.
The world of CO2
https://www.ric-communications.ch/referenzen/simple-science-1.html
– N° 1 Earth’s atmospheric composition
– N° 2 Natural sources of CO2 emissions
– N° 3 Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions
– N° 4 CO2 – Carbon dioxide molecule
– N° 5 The global carbon cycle
– N° 6 Carbon and plant respiration
– N° 7 Plant categories and abundance (C3, C4 & CAM Plants)
– N° 8 Photosynthesis, the C3 vs C4 gap
– N° 9 Plant respiration and CO2
– N° 10 The logarithmic temperature rise of higher CO2 levels.
– N° 11 Earth’s atmospheric composition in relationship to CO2
– N° 12 Human respiration and CO2 concentrations.
– N° 13 600 million years of temperature change and atmospheric CO2
The World of Climate Change
http://www.ric-communications.ch/referenzen/simple-science-2.html
– N° 1 600 million years of global temperature change
– N° 2 Earth‘s temperature record for the last 400,000 years
– N° 3 Holocene period and average northern hemispheric temperatures
– N° 4 140 years of global mean temperature
– N° 5 120 m of sea level rise over the past 20‘000 years
– N° 6 Eastern European alpine glacier history during the Holocene period.
I would think that most visitors to JoNova site understand the importance of CO2 and all its benefits. I therefore don’t think these charts are of interest since the opinion here is clear, CO2 is good and not evil. However we live in our bubble and the rest of the world isn’t so informed.
So if you need some helpful charts to better explain what CO2 is, this is the place to go. These step by step guides start at the beginning and are ideal for beginners. No propaganda, no tricks, only facts. The data is drawn from Scientists and institutions like NASA, GISS, NOAA and IPCC. YES the IPCC also provides data that is correct.
This is my small contribution in helping to put a more balanced view the hysteria over Climate Change.
Ray
P.S. Sorry for reposting my charts yet again on your super BLOG. It’s still the best place for me to post and get some attention. THANKS
10
On other things
“Global Warming? “There’s some indication in the data that the pause is leaning toward a small reversal of the 20th-century trends.” ”
“If we accept the study, climate models calibrated against pre-1980 temperatures are running way too hot, because in the pre-1980s period the anthropogenic global warming signature was being augmented by the deterioration of the ozone layer.
I’m not talking about a small calibration error. if the ozone layer recovery is strong enough to stop southern warming in its tracks, given the vast amount of CO2 we have dumped into the atmosphere in the last 20 years, then the deterioration of the ozone layer in the years leading up to the 1980s must have contributed substantially to the pre-1980s observed warming.
On the other hand, accepting the study means accepting that two powerful opposing forcings can almost perfectly balance each other for two decades when they move into opposition to each other. It is not impossible that two independent forcings have the same magnitude, but it is not terribly likely either. The easiest way to explain two powerful independent opposed forcings which just happen to perfectly balance each other, without the uncomfortable coincidence of perfect balance, is to assume neither forcing actually exists.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/26/global-warming-theres-some-indication-in-the-data-that-the-pause-is-leaning-toward-a-small-reversal-of-the-20th-century-trends/
50
Co2 emissions down and global temperatures down!
But CO2 at Mauna Loa shows no reduction yet.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/22/is-the-covid-19-economic-downturn-affecting-atmospheric-co2-mauna-loa-data-say-not-yet/
Worth watching.
40
Notice how none of our elitist politicians & bureacrats have suffered a cut in their pay nor even a curtailing in expenses.
It would be a fair go if they were put on a doubled workstart allowance too.
60
Just seen a copy of an order by the Western Australian police commissioner ordering all gun stores to close in the interests of safety!
Surely just another retail store where social distancing would have been employed?
30
I don’t think that’s the safety he’s thinking about, Robert. I hope that sort of
forward thinking isn’t required for where we are heading!
WA has a big stash of people McGowan has to handle off those boats, and he’s not
mucking around. The WA returnees are having a 2week quarantine on Rottnest Island (20+Km
offshore). Eastern Staters are flying to Sydney on the weekend to enjoy 2weeks quarantine
somewhere. Internationals are being put up at a city pub held secure I gather by the military
(police, I think) before getting flown home (Germans).
For WA, we have regional isolations coming in next week. No tripping North, south or east.
40
McGowan is doing an excellent job.
10
Tdef has inspired me. Perhaps people dont realize the purpose of
– copyright, patent, tarrifs, duties, taxes
A publisher holds a ‘copyright’ to protrct the investment they make in tooling up a press and printing a book. The copyright protectsthe investment made to create and sell the intellectual product.
Taxes, duties and taffis do the same thing. If there were no tax on alcohol it could be bootlegged or imorted by smugglers. The tax protects the franchise to sell the stuff
Governments issue franchises, commisions and licenses. They get money for licensing a monoply to provide a service. The service is protected by the license/franchise fee.
So what happens in the world is that offshore companies have the franchise/copyright to sell stuff locally.
31
China has launched a perfidious biological war against us now that we’ve surrendered the last vestiges of our manufacturing industry to them and brazenly shipped back to China the equipment we will need to begin dealing with our emergency. Surely within the coming days this state of war will be made explicit. Let’s see what Trump does…
20
More importantly, let’s see what Australia does.
Firstly, have you noticed that the China lobbyists like Bob Carr and others have gone to ground? Not a peep.
That’s what the tree-huggers did during the summer bushfires. Nary a peep out of them – until it was all over and people and authorities started clearing dangerous trees from roadsides. They crawled out from under their rocks then.
I’m looking forward to the MSM getting on to the Sinophile lobby and have them eat their miserable, treasonous words?
70
Yep . Tear that free trade agreement with China into tiny pieces and scatter them to the winds.
Maybe wait until World Leader Jacinda does it first.
20
There is no evidence to support your biological warfare hypothesis, but its about time WHO demands China exterminate their bat colonies.
You are probably correct in thinking globalism is on the nose, I’m not sure how this will pan out.
30
Of course there’s no evidence.
Do you think the Chinese Communist Party is going to write a paper for an international journal on what they’ve got planned?
However, when it’s all said and done, there may well be evidence. It just hasn’t been made available yet. The times not right or opportune.
30
This isn’t a conspiracy to bring down the Western world, get real.
10
Yeah right. Your social credit score just “went exponential”.
32
I wouldn’t be too popular in western Queensland, Pauline is out on the hustings.
00
Go on . Have a go ya mug .
Still , she doesn’t hide her light under a bushel.
10
“its about time WHO demands China …”
WHO, incompetent and corrupt.
Q. Who owns WHO?
A. China
10
Beijing authorities announced on 10th March that there were 21,000,000 less cell phones in China than 2 months ago. Every chinese adult has to have a cell phone, it is law. Their financial transactions, medical details, and even their identity are on their phone. Something to ponder.
30
…..than 3 months ago.
10
‘Part of the drop could be caused by migrant workers — who often have one subscription for where they work and another for their home region — canceling their work-region account after the virus prevented them from returning to work after the Lunar New Year holidays that began in late January, said Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.’
Bloomberg
20
Would you believe – another one!
“Michigan Democrat Governor Threatens Licenses of Doctors and Pharmacists Who Prescribe Hydroxychloroquine to Treat Coronavirus…”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/27/michigan-democrat-governor-threatens-licenses-of-doctors-and-pharmacists-who-prescribe-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-coronavirus/
And plenty of comments – note the first one
40
Ian,
You might not have meant this;
None the less
10
And these drugs have FDA approval as safe for humans. This is just a political stunt by another Democrat governor.
As Trump beams positively about helping Americans, the Democrat party snipe away, even trying to steal control of the government while six Republican senators are in lockdown. It seems they do not need any principles and openly see Coronavirus as a great opportunity to damage Trump and the Republicans.
I suspect a lot of Democrat voters will be very pissed off at this. Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff will stop at nothing to destroy the government and Trump regardless of what is good for America and Americans. It will soon be an embarassment to be a Democrat voter.
And the big networks are being bypassed by a country focused on Trump’s nightly message. It is clearly time for 80 year old opportunist Pelosi and her friends to start behaving as if they care about more than themselves.
60
And Biden and Sanders are nowhere to be seen where Trump is leading from the front. I cannot see how the Democrats hope to hold Congress let alone destroy Trump. Anyone who sees the biggest threat to America since the Cuban Missile Crisis as a political opportunity is a disgrace. And Greta and Climate Change is of no interest. And the dictatorship in Venezuela has just been branded a Narco Terrorist. Venezuela, the perfect socialist country after Cuba. According to Corbyn and Sanders. And they might be right.
60
Advance Australia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/what-is-advance-australia/10520122
A response to Get Up?
I Like what I have seen so far.
Things are not good from a Nationalistic viewpoint;
https://www.advanceaustralia.org.au/raided_aussie_medical_supplies_shipped_sydney_to_china?utm_campaign=20200327_enews&utm_medium=email&utm_source=advanceaustraliaorgau
80
China today is not our friend…
H/t Sun Tzu.
40
Did they get a call from their bosses in Beijing?
20
Or maybe they were just cunning business folk who saw a huge market opportunity….
…….and took it !
Whilst dozy ozzies argued over if the NRL could keep playing !
31
Warm water bleaches coral.
‘Aerial surveys have confirmed the Great Barrier Reef is experiencing its third mass coral bleaching event in five years.’ Weatherzone
20
And warm water is caused by the sun. Which is why there is more CO2.
71
Last year’s flu outbreak was severe, ‘the national death toll officially stands at 430, although the real figure could be much higher with experts saying some deaths are attributed to other causes despite flu-related complications.’ ABC
This coming winter there should be less people killed by flu because they are forced to isolate and practice distancing, there should also be fewer car fatalities.
20
Isn’t 430 the daily figure? I thought it was 430 deaths/day, but not all flu-related.
20
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-18/influenza-spike-may-be-climate-related/11406980
10
I’m wondering if the changing of the seasons could possibly be connected with climate also. Anyone know?
21
The federal epidemiology update on COVID19 was released this morning. So now we can find out what was happening Friday last week, LOL.
Delicious new severity and morbidity stats, get your modelling caps on and tweak those parameters!
Tweak tweak tweak.
Definitely a rate reduction and the projection now indicates way less future deaths than before.
00
Jacinda said 80,000 NZers could die. Other believe less than 100, 57 actually according to ” the models”.
GIGO.
22
We live under the main Melb>Syd flight path, right about the point the aircraft come out of cruise and start to descend (most people dont notice them, I am an aviation nerd) More obvious are light aircaft using the corridor much lower down. Of late its been very, very quiet and even the general aviation flights have backed off a lot, appears the air border is being enforced as well. The one thing we still see a lot of is helicopters, it may be an illusion because other things have stopped and they are more noticeable. Just a random factoid.
See you all in a few months, its getting a bit to doomster around here for me. I will take a break for my brains sake. Be careful out there.
30
Not if you live near a major port. The cruise ships are still coming into Fremantle, and the WA state govt has to organise flights with their countries to send the passengers home. Australians from the cruise ships are being sent to Rottnest Island for two weeks, but other nationalities have to be bussed to the airport and flown home.
Also the sick passengers have to be hospitalised, occupying valuable bed space.
And still the cruise ships come…
50
I live under the Melbourne Adelaide flight path.
Formerly we heard two flights an hour every hour from 7.00 am till 10,00 pm
Now just a couple each day.
Certainly there are far fewer flights now.
And that is the lock down having it’s effect.
I suspect that Virgin & Qantas are regretting not supporting an early quarantine ban on flights from China, the USA, Italy, the UK, Iran etc.
Now bother international & domestic flights are scuppered !
10
Plenty of commercial planes still flying around the world, so Mentour Pilot tries to explain why.
https://youtu.be/x5HNUjVEPyQ?t=154
In short, “ghost flights” with no passengers are still worthwhile if it helps keep most of their pilots “current” in their skills right up until the crisis ends, plus avoids extra maintenance costs for grounded aircraft and extra simulator time for getting grounded pilots warmed up again.
Also there has been little effect on demand for cargo but passenger jets are now increasingly used for cargo.
30
Andrew McRae, There are more planes up there than you think. Many private, military and government aircraft have an FAA exemption that allows for anonymous flight reporting. Since ADSB mandates came into effect in 2020 this usually means the “DCM” flight number prefix otherwise pronounced by ATC as “dotcom” that was usually visible, is no longer so. Flightaware can no longer see these flights; and there are one hell of a lot of them!
30
I see the same Yarpos. I don’t think you are imagining the extra helicopters; I thought so too…it’s not just that there are fewer fixed wing around. I also like watching the various aircraft and enjoy checking what they are on FR.
Just had a couple of stunning shots of all the currently unused A380s in Dubai, sent by pilot son. He should have been off to Japan tomorrow. Oh well. DXB is closed.
I had hoped to get a group of us in this area together shortly but the blighted virus beat me to it!
Oh well, plenty of wooding to get sorted and fruit to process. Loadsa apples, pears, quinces, etc. At least the sheep can eat the surplus.
40
” its getting a bit to doomster around here”
Ya don’t say?
Wait! Think of your social credit score. 🙂
02
Just came across this amazing correlation page , this is one for the AGW crowd .
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations?fbclid=IwAR2E3KXufEt6n4vR9QQAy6RYCkU21kdBywfcYO-BOw9tRpNt34y-2amlj2g
10
These magnificent correlations were achieved without tree rings and ice cores – amazing.
20
The US is not reporting on actual locations of virus cases. If you live in remote areas where infected people have fled. Assume it’s there. As a retired fire chief myself. This is blatantly criminal.
Massachusetts man says on radio he’s positive for coronavirus, quarantined in Skowhegan
The Maine Center for Disease Control says the man’s case wouldn’t be counted for Somerset County, which remained at zero confirmed cases as of Thursday, because federal rules go by a person’s primary residence.
https://www.centralmaine.com/2020/03/26/massachusetts-man-says-on-radio-hes-positive-for-coronavirus-quarantined-in-skowhegan/
Robert Long, spokesman for the Maine Center for Disease Control, pointed out Thursday that federal rules dictate that confirmed cases should be listed by a person’s primary residence.
“If the man’s primary residence is in another state, he would be listed in that state, even if he was tested and is being cared for in Maine,” Long said by email. “The U.S. CDC has stated that tracking cases by the state of primary residence is the best system to ensure an accurate national count.”
30
Some common sense from Topher Field…
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2822012057836183&id=567132099990868
10
Seems to be a confirmed case of a cat contracting the virus.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/103003/coronavirus-belgian-woman-infected-her-cat/
10
Another day, another beach that needs to be closed due to indescribably morally stunted humans;
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/beaches-closed-after-crowds-defy-social-distancing-rules-20200327-p54epl.html
20
yeah nah. We only close our Auckland beaches when it rains and the storm water floods the sewage lines and the beaches are covered in shirt.
21
Paywall. I will not subscribe to The Age! Probably had my ration of freebies!
10
We got slammed by 18-inches of snow yesterday. We are now approaching six straight months of some snow cover. So much for longer growing seasons.
I’m not sure if this is helping or hindering the spread of the virus here? They say the virus thrives in temps between 32 degrees F and 57 degrees F. The over night lows are well below freezing but the afternoon highs are right in the danger range. But it still typically drops below freezing shortly before dark and remains frozen until about 10 AM.
Next week they are predicting a big warm up. This will put the highs up to about 60 to 65 degrees F but we may not get an over night frost. I’m not sure if that’s good or bad?
I think higher humidity is good.
30
This is fun: https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2020/03/27/a-history-of-panic-buying/?informz=1
20
Wow.
00
So the Royal Fits and the Bakchat are working as a team. Where’s the Cat in the Hat? Oh!
Sorry, I didn’t see you there. Must be the social distancing.
LOL
03
“Prime Minister Boris Johnson Tests Positive for Coronavirus, Is Self-Isolating”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/27/boris-johnson-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-self-isolating/
AND further down
“Delingpole: Fear of the Coronavirus Is Worse Than the Disease”
UK Health Secretary infected as well
20
This is a fun game . For every bullseye , I get a red thumb.
But I must go , it’s persing down , cats and dogs. Drought’s over in NZ.
Floods in 3 . . 2 . . 1 . ..
” my days are measured in wagons of silage ”
T.S.Eliot was a wimp.
02
While it is sensible to take precautions – and most folk are, the MSM seems hell ben on scaring the bejesus outa us – jus’ say’n
MSM at it again – people should remember FDR’s famous quote about fear
30
JETSTREAM UPDATE:
The fastest jets are back at 34 k ft (no longer found at 30 k ft).
Jets in the northern hemisphere are back to a normal speeds range but not back to normal behavior. The ‘mega-jets’ of early to mid-February have gone away completely, as have all jets above about 350 km/h.
Jets in the southern hemisphere remain much accelerated, the jets are now strongest on the south side of the equator, but don’t exceed about 365 km/h. The fastest jets are still in the Indian ocean to the SW of Western Australia.
Antarctica is cold very early. Temps of –70C are normally only seen during Winter, but were occurring in mid-March this year.
https://i.ibb.co/d61b4T2/a-Temperature-Early-Cold-Antarctica-2020-03-28-Windy-as-forecasted.png
The early cold and the ultra-dry stratospheric air falling into mid-lat cold-core Lows has meant that the Southern Ocean was much stormier during this Summer (the unusual storminess of late-Spring was what caused me to investigate the jetstream’s behavior in late Nov 2019 in the first place).
Here’s the effect on wave heights.
https://i.ibb.co/5GN9f9F/b-Waves-Southern-Ocean-rough-early-2020-03-28.png
Here’s the surface pressure at midnight last night. As you can see the Lows and troughs are strong and numerous, but there are always storms in Summer in the southern ocean, but they are normally much weaker. The Low pressure storms were amplified by in-falling stratospheric air in them, which continues:
https://i.ibb.co/jRD7cRK/c-Pressure-Southern-Ocean-already-stormy-2020-03-28.png
So there were higher surface wind levels and storminess during Summer, which is becoming typically Winter-like earlier this year. It’s already as rough as the North Atlantic, and rougher than the stormy northern Pacific.
https://i.ibb.co/ggfTS58/d-Surface-Winds-next-10-days-South-is-Windy-2020-03-28.png
A Winter-like jetstream flow has persisted in the Southern hemisphere for 9 months now (much faster too, up to 412 km/h) in Jan and Feb. But is has now dropped back to no more than 365 km/h (which is still ~140 km/h faster than it should be right now).
https://i.ibb.co/b5TLxL1/e-Jet-34-k-ft-363-kph-ECMWF-2020-03-28.jpg
I animated the jetstream at 34,000 feet over the next 10 days. You can see the southern hemisphere jets have become stronger than the north. You can also see that the very long zonal stable jet over Africa, Asia and West Pacific begins to break up, and as it does so you can see the central Pacific Equatorial-Jet begins to break up. These two features will be almost 3 months old at the end of this animation.
https://i.ibb.co/1Z0bKBV/Jetstream-34-k-ft-28th-March-2020-ECMWF-10-days-1-Way.gif
Don’t forget these existed and what they did. They’re big hint to what really controls our weather and probably climate as well.
The sinking stratosphere is still falling in but has become so well distributed that the jet maximum speeds have subsided to a more typical range, except for in the southern hemisphere which remains highly affected and altered by it.
Will we notice a difference during this Winter?
I think we’re likely to get generally more wind, with stronger fronts, and probably more sinking dry air, but longer deeper troughs will tend to pull more moisture from the north-west tropics toward the southern ocean. So less sedate weather and generally increased variability is what I expect for the next 6 months. If La-Nina develops get ready for a rough Spring and Summer storm season.
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I read this blog for years because I believed it to be (mostly) science based.
Unfortunately in the last few months it has become more alarmist than the alarmists.
Forget about animal markets in Wuhan – try ‘Animal Farm’ (or even ‘Invasion of the Body Snatchers’).
Thanks for the memories.
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This minute physics video provides a very interesting tool for visualising what covid policies are working.
https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc
Only China and South Korea have real success, given data available.
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