Australia and New Zealand may soon open up a safe travel zone in the South Pacific and some mock it as a “bubble”. But many other nations could potentially join this growing virus-free zone. Countries which could get there sooner include Germany, France, Norway, Ireland, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Czechia, Serbia, Croatia, Greece and Iceland. Plus South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, Israel, and even perhaps Italy and Spain not long after that. And there are others.
Countries that are only flattening the curve, and not crushing it, include bizarrely the powerhouses of the Western world, the UK and US, as well as Sweden and Canada. It also includes Russia, Brazil, and a lot of the third world. But even Turkey is bringing the curve down. Forgoodnesssake, Jordan looks impressive. Even Cuba looks like reaching zero before the US of A does.
The US and UK are keeping their virus cases alive by flying them in through open borders. Sweden is just not doing enough. Canada? Good question. Please tell us.
We know how to beat this virus yet top level expert advisors are telling Boris and Trump they need to leave the borders open. Can someone shake these men and tell them to get better advice? The Experts from the Swamp may not want to solve this. Especially if profits or elections are on the line. They could have stopped the flights in February, but they didn’t.
A world divided…
Imagine the effect on those nations considered “unsafe” which are locked outside the Virus-free Zone. Their travellers can enter the safe zone with a two week quarantine. The world could become carved into the clean and unclean. Only nations with no infections and hard border control could be admitted, but once inside, people could fly with normal border checks and no extra quarantine. Economies would return to near normal levels within and tourism could rebound within the clean zone. People would have the confidence to go out for dinner and plan weddings and visit their relatives in nursing homes.
Countries with out-of-control infections would lose out in so many ways — and the pressure to join the virus free zone will be huge. Tourists from the safe zone could visit the land of infections, but face a two week quarantine on return. Once countries are “in” they will want to maintain any borders with the infected zone — if an outbreak occurs, they may lose their own safe status.
But the world sits at a vulnerable fork in the road
Many nations are potentially only weeks from zero cases — but burning cash. If nations reopen to fast or too early, the second waves will come, economies will struggle on for months, tip toeing around the virus, redoing the lockdowns, or just suffering the deaths and the fear. But for those with the wealth and the resolve to beat this, the No-Virus World offers real freedom and a V shaped recovery. All the infrastructure and workforce is still there, mostly intact. The bridges have not been burned. (Yet).
But there are some major players both within and without who benefit from dragging out the problem. Some are seeding the message that we can’t get rid of the virus, that we have to have vaccines, or drugs, or herd immunity, when what we really need right now is strong borders and just to finish the job.
A healthy economy starts with healthy people.
The Globalists will hate that success is measured one nation at a time, depends on strong borders and was achieved despite the EU and the UN. This virus is the anti-thesis of Open Borders and a pox on the biggest layer of useless government in the world. The WHO only had one job and they failed us.
All around the world, nations are beating Coronavirus
Everyone knows Australia and New Zealand are close to zero, but they could still muck this up.
Stats and graphs thanks to Worldometer
All across Europe there are signs of success. Not long after strong quarantine measures started the curves started to flatten:
Stats and graphs thanks to Worldometer | Click to enlarge.
Asian nations near China were better prepared. These numbers were nothing like the West.
Click to enlarge.
Even in Italy and Spain, the curves are promising, though as they reopen, there is plenty for the virus to spring off…
…
The mysteries of the Americas:
This is what flattening the curve looks like in the USA and Canada.
Obviously, in a divided world, constant vigilance is required, but the West already successfully keeps out many diseases that used to be endemic. Testing would have to be maintained to cope with the odd inevitable breach, along with tracking and tracing teams ready to go. At the first hint of reinfection, the borders lock down around the region til it’s cleared. We know what to do.
Go hard and Go Early. Short sharp and fast.
Things worth knowing about Coronavirus:
- Quarantines work: 12 days after lockdowns, quarantines and isolation, Coronavirus slows. This is text book microbiology.
- The stroke virus? Covid causes hundreds of microclots throughout the lungs (and everywhere else)
- Coronavirus causes clotting: hold the ventilators, stop blood clots instead
- Coronavirus can affect brains, may increase stroke risk.
- Solve Vitamin D deficiency first to help beat Coronavirus.
- New York is “like mass casualty event”: coronavirus and other deaths are up three-fold
- Coronavirus may be man made. Why did the CCP destroy the evidence?
- Looks like we can extinguish Coronavirus: Australia and NZ tracking to zero.
- Large coronavirus random tests in Austria show only 1% infected
- Read Crush the Curve — save the economy
On VE day I just had to insert this to show that urgency has often been lacking.
‘In August 1939, with war in Poland looming, the British eventually sent a minor official called Reginald Ranfurly Plunckett-Ernle-Erle-Drax. He travelled by slow boat, not by plane. He did not have authority to make any decisions, and had to refer every question back to London. The talks dragged on.’
I want to believe this is a spoof name but sadly I feel he would fit in well with the current conservative cabinet and their lack lustre approach to CV . Why haven’t they closed the airports? is this being dealt with by the modern equivalent to Drax ?
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It is still to be explained why NZ reversed its initial decision ( and practice) to quarantine arrivals from known infected areas.
But the “narrative ” is starting to unravel very quickly now :-
https://thebfd.co.nz/2020/05/09/face-of-the-day-122/
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Farmer
According to this Swedish expert new Zealand faces decades of quarantining if they wipe out the virus, presumably he thinks this will also apply to Australia( scroll to bottom of link to see article)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8300631/Swedish-Covid-19-expert-says-lockdown-merely-delaying-inevitable.html
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A word of caution from NZ about eradication of other things – this was introduced species from off-shore islands
“Eradicating the last 1% will take as long and cost as much as the first 99% did”
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Yep if they want to know what a true exponential curve looks like then eradication cost is a much better fit than theoretical infection rates.
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There is a simple logic/math problem or to there. First and loudest is that the curve breaks down with numbers below 1. It is very hard for a single person to be 63.2% dead. It is also hard to be 86.5% not infected. Australia has had no deaths for days. The N.T. has had none at all. This will end very very soon if we can get the active cases to fall fast and they will fall at an exponentially increasing rate of fall if the testing keeps finding them to stop new ones.
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The trajectory of the pandemic is in all cases declining. Review the ‘New Normal‘ at Tony Heller.
Quarantining the healthy is not science, microbiology or the established tenets of public health. Quarantine the sick, isolate cases, protect the vulnerable, and trace, test, test, test. No testing in New Zealand unless you crawl into the doctors office or A&E with coryza, anosmia, pyrexia, sore throat, headache, cough, myalgia, possibly dyspnoea (non specific symptoms of seasonal ‘flu) … and demand it.
No testing means no empirical knowledge of a virus whose chief feature is high transmission (Ro:5.7) (Sanche et al. 2020) and in which 86% cases are undocumented (Li et al. 2020). The most successful and imperilled country Taiwan, oddly absent from the graphs above also has a functioning economy at a loss of 0.3 people per million. Sweden will have gone a long way down the track to acquire herd immunity (requires 82% population exposed) and more importantly, not killed its economy. Australia is doing better than NZ, with less economic destitution pro rata and the same death rate per million population of 4. (today – 09/05 -the global average death rate per million is 34.52 – Italy runs at 500 and USA at 237, UK at 460, Brazil at 45, France at 402, Ireland at 289, Japan and S.Korea both at 5). In essence the USA is comprised of 50 countries. Treat the USA as one would the EU! The data per State may be seen here.
New Zealand is a terminally sick economic basket case with the neo-Marxist corporatist globalist claws of Comrade Princess Rainbow Bubbles of Devastating Kindness driven into it like nails into a coffin, a country locked down for an indeterminate period, under a totalitarian government that has not stated when it intends to relinquish its ’emergency powers’ and return the country to what passes for usual democratic process, aided and abetted by a one sided, one eyed Leftist media. The PM and the Government refuse to answer probing question. I have written twice to the PM and Minister of Health to no avail. Next stop, as many are doing, questions under the FOI Act.
It also turns our that the NZ Government and police acted illegally for the first two weeks of their imposed lockdown. This is under judicial review. They knew it as did the NZ AG, but chose to be ‘economical’ with the truth, while local gangs and Maori power crazed thugs imposed private illegal road blocks. This is not a good place to be, not at all. Nor will it be a good place to be in the coming months when the ‘second’ wave of catastrophe arises as job losses, hopelessness, and despair make their presence felt. Still, it’s a dry run for the Green Death and may give the sheeple pause for thought.
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Yup…exactly what ive been saying all along.
To get the last 1% is also infintely impractical.
And the longer we are isolated, the less our immune function is challenged and the more succeptable we are. Our immune function needs challenge to work.
The lockdown has created the exact conditions to pretty much guarantee suppression of our immunity. Shutting beaches seems part of the plandemic, as beaches have many beneficial microbes that help healing etc.
Expect a spike in illness when lockdown ends.
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Latus: The idea that we only “Quarantined the sick” is false. Think about it. Whenever asymptomatic people can spread disease we don’t know who is sick or who to quarantine. It’s a simplistic line. Study the history of quarantine. Many times in history the healthy were quarantined as well. Ships — both sick and healthy — were held out of Ports without any SWAT teams visiting to test them with RNA tests that didn’t exist. Healthy villages barricaded themselves in to avoid plagues.
We still quarantine all pets for 6 months from countries with rabies. It’s the only way to know they aren’t bringing in the disease. Applies to healthy pets as well as sick ones.
As for the last 1% Steve, it’s not impractical, we’ve probably already done it. It’s far cheaper than losing hospitals, or keeping the economy down due to fear for a year.
https://www.covid19data.com.au/
The lockdown is ending all over Australia, the testing is ramped up and the spike in cases is mostly clusters in a meatworks and a nursing home.
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BIngo Jo! You couldn’t have stated it more clearly.
You don’t know what you don’t know, and refuse to know, and meantime in NZ, you trash the economy, livelihood and future of so many by anchoring to a policy that makes little scientific sense, but is based on the ‘feel good’ hand waving precautionary principle.
Quarantine and relentless widespread testing, plus the other sensible measures is, was and always will be the rational way to proceed and still preserve an economy. An argument against quarantine based on medieval knowledge is fallacious nonsense. We can do far better than that today, as indeed many have demonstrated. I am surprised you would use false equivalence as a basis for denying the utility of quarantine.
And as for the quarantine of animals from rabies infected countries, a quarantine period of 6 months exists because the incubation period for rabies virus is anywhere from a few days to several years, but typically 2 – 3 months. Six months quarantine appears in probabilistic terms, quite appropriate.
The established incubation period for the Wuhan novel corona virus is 5 days to a week.
When confronted with a relatively benign novel virus with high transmission rates whose destiny is to become endemic, the faster one moves toward herd immunity the better, given the uncertainty of a successful vaccine and the certainty of the devastating socioeconomic consequences of economic suicide.
To achieve this in the safest manner possible you test, test, test. Even the corrupted UN WHO provided that advice early on in March: “The World Health Organization sent a clear message to all countries in mid-March: test, test, and test. The more tests that are conducted, the easier it becomes to track the spread of the virus and reduce transmission.”
Rate of coronavirus (COVID-19) tests performed in the most impacted countries worldwide as of May 8, 2020 (per million population)
LOL. I don’t see NZ or Australia anywhere on that international table, despite NZ genuflecting at the feet of the UN in general and WHO in particular at present. Nor do I see the most successful country, Taiwan on that line up.
But …. Taiwan initiated early social distancing and PPE and tracing plus strict quarantine for infected, “Due to the hard lessons that Taiwan learned during the SARS epidemic in 2003, it is more prepared for the coronavirus outbreak than many other countries,” said Dr. Chunhuei Chi, a public health professor at the Oregon State University in the US’.
So Jo, no, the idea of quarantining the sick remains valid and appropriate, even if there are those neo-Marxist rainbow deluded ideologues that considered it racist to start with. Only this time around politics spins on the axle of virtue signalling, and the Warholian appearance of ‘saving the world’ transcends the long term reality of the uselessness and cost of vapid policies.
After all, the climatism charade is no different.
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So no Latus, the people who said “we only ever quarantined the sick” do not even have medieval medical knowledge. Stuck somewhere in the neolithic? C’mon. I won that round.
And thanks for agreeing with me on rabies. Quarantine of healthy and sick people and pets is the bleeding obvious, has always happened, still happens, and on Covid 14 days is appropriate for a 5 day average incubation. Exactly my point. Thank you.
Be aware, the virus doesn’t “have to be endemic”, though The Flu Vax industry will be grateful to you for propagating this myth. Did you miss the graphs and the whole point of the post? Data from 20 countries not enough to disprove your point?
Be also aware that herd immunity is another vaccine marketing point, but since there are no known vaccines to either human or livestock coronavirus, and there is no known long immunity, that herd immunity with Covid may be a fantasy. (we don’t know) Not good to base national policy on potential tooth fairy type stuff.
So call me Cassandra, I’m flattered that you blame me for imagined possible damage to NZ, but I was the one working to stop the flights and the economic damage in Feb. What did you do?
If you only read my blog before you commented we wouldnt be repeating things I covered a month ago. And you’d also know that there is easy test comparison data on this site, which shows Australia and NZ are doing extremely well. see https://www.covid19data.com.au/testing and scroll.
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You haven’t rebutted a single point I made Jo and you confabulate and draw false equivalence. You then state the above.
Little wonder then that you omitted citing the Taiwan graph in this post. O.3 deaths per million with a proximity to the centre of the pandemic and a population density to excite Paul Ehrlich into paroxysms of hysteria, though with a population about the same as Australia.
An order of magnitude worse in two sparsely populated countries at the bottom of the World blessed by space and sunshine. Extremely well? In whose world might that be?
Nice choice of metaphor though. That was a nice touch. Cassandra. How apt. I can indeed spot a Trojan horse a mile off.
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Latus, Hidden Taiwan? I don’t think so. Read the post before you comment next time. I’m quoting daily new cases, not deaths, and Taiwan is just another (yawn) perfect example. Here’s the Taiwan graph so you can see. Headed for zero? And right on the doorstep of the epicentre. Tick. Tick. Tick.
As for rebutting: you said “Quarantining the healthy is not science.” Apparently it doesn’t matter what I say. In a magic fairyland we’d only quarantine the sick, but in the real world, for thousands of years since the old testament, we’ve quarantined anything suspicious. You have not even tried to refute that. Perhaps you don’t read my comments either?
PS: The post isn’t about death rates. You are rebutting your imagination.
510
I’ve had a lot of trouble understanding what “asymptomatic” actually means. I believe it is applied to people who are unfortunate to have contracted the virus but fortunate enough not to get sick. However they can pass the virus to others who do get sick.
So if these asymptomatic people are quarantined for a fortnight do they lose the virus or not? If not, then what’s the point of quarantining them? Or am I on the wrong track?
Simple answer please for this simple mind!
50
Jo while in the past the healthy have quarantined in most cases it was because they had a reasonable chance of dying from the disease. With CV19 this is not the case as those under 50-60 have little to nothing to fear from CV19. So why quarantine those that are extremely unlikely to die or even need a hospital bed? If only the old and susceptible were quarantined then the those with CV19 could roam freely generating herd immunity in a very short space of time. While the quarantine might be strict for the old it would be for the shortest time of any other scenario and little impact on the economy other than the cost of assisting the old in the lockdown for 4-8weeks
Unfortunately no country that I know of is trying this experiment but Florida is partially down this path.
The initial lockdown response was correct when we knew little aboutCV19 but now we have some useful data we need to adapt our strategies and fight CV19’s greatest weakness with our greatest strength our immune system. I don’t what what the % of the population that would have a bad outcome from CV19 is I expect it is under 5% so say being cautious we would need strict control on only 10% of the population not 100 as it is now. I would also expect to see good compliance as it is in the best interest of the 10% to do so.
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@Ian Hill – My understanding is that asymptomatic means ‘without symptoms’, and so yes, after 2 weeks or so they’re recovered
@Bright Red – You’re assuming community immunity is a possibility. I don’t believe that is proven yet? We hope it is, else a vaccine will likely be impossible.
Which 10% do we isolate? The old? Prince Charles is old and recovered just fine. And it’s not like the young are immune from devastating effects, including death https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
And there may be evidence suggesting that Covid is affecting young children https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html#link-3f08228
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disorganise – thanks for your answer. I think by “recovered” you mean they are no longer a danger to anyone. They were never sick in the first place.
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Ian Hill – yes, recovered means no longer infected and shedding the virus. Whether they were sick or not….I’d argue they were sick but just didn’t know it. The body would still have been doing it’s fight the virus thing, just at a threshold below noticeable.
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Ian Hill, RE: Asymptomatic — indeed though they were not aware of any symptoms it is possible that their d-dimer levels, clotting agents, or inflammatory markers were raised. It’s possible also that these could induce a stroke or a heart attack which might not have happened otherwise.
Asymptomatic only means they aren’t aware of the disease progression, otherwise, it is usually similar, though presumably lower grade, less damage and less shedding. Their body finds a way to beat the virus, and then develop antibodies as per other people. (Though that doesn’t happen in every infected person but that is another story).
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BrightRed said: “while in the past the healthy have quarantined in most cases it was because they had a reasonable chance of dying from the disease. “
Bright Red, you miss the point of Quarantine — which is to protect the citizens from the travellers. When they stopped boats off a port it wasn’t to protect the people on the boat, was it?
I’m still surprised by the easy declarations of a lack of any concern for those over 60, or people with cancer, asthma, dark skin, transplants or low immunity. Perhaps instead of complaining here you could run for Parliament and let the people decide if that’s the kind of civilization they want to live in?
PS: 20% of the population of the US are over 60 years, and add in the other risk groups and it could easily be a third of the population at high risk.
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Jo, I’m surprised you seem to want to virtue signal about those that could be affected rather than have a straight up discussion about the facts. I am concerned for the old and vulnerable which is why I am advocating for them to be under even stricter lockdowns and every assistance given to them. But unlike some others here I am also concerned for the young and their future and those that are committing suicide due to the so called cure.
30% is still a lot less than 100% so your point must be that the other 70% can just suck it up.
It seems we have two usages of the word quarantine. Perhaps we should call the current situation an isolation lockdown and leave quarantine for travellers across boarders. But my point remains when it comes to other outbreaks in a region that there was forced and voluntary isolations because usually everybody was at risk which is not the case with CV19
22
BrightRed, letting off the “virtue signal” flare won’t protect you from appearing callous towards the high risk groups.
Since you want a “straight up discussion of the facts” perhaps you could provide some about the groups you profess concern for? Or was that just virtue signalling based on empty speculation?
PS: BR said “30% is still a lot less than 100% so your point must be that the other 70% can just suck it up.”
Welcome to the real world. All of life in a democracy is about figuring out how to share the burdens and prizes fairly. Is it fair to ask 30% to hide at home in fear, or for 1 in 30 of them to die so the other 70% can keep doing exactly what they always did, or perhaps that might not be a civilization you and I would like to live in?
00
@disorganise
I’m assuming we can get RO down not complete population immunity. Complete immunity is as big a long shot as complete eradication but probably cheaper. Yep only a fraction of the old that get CV19 die from it but that fraction is significant enough that action is warranted but not our current gross overreaction. And it seems more work is needed to narrow down those most susceptible but until that data is available we isolate all the old and yes that would include the prince but as is we are isolating everybody even those who we know are at practically no risk.
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Nic Lewis suggests it may only take around 17% infection to reach herd immunity threshold.
It’s a pretty complex explanation but overall idea is fairly clearly communicated and the discussion beneath provides good food for thought.
https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/
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I live in Canada. The “daily new cases” graph looks scary – until you realize that less than 0.2% of the population has been diagnosed with the disease. Of those, 84% are in Ontario and Quebec – about a 4-days’ drive from where I live. 93% of the less than 5000 total deaths are in Ontario and Quebec as well.
In my province, about 0.04% of the population has tested positive for the virus, and there have been exactly 129 deaths as of today.
In the US, there are a few hot spots that are driving the numbers. New York State is one of the hot spots. New York City is has an extremely high population density (27,000/sq mi or 11,000/sq km), and 2/3 of the population who got the virus were sheltering in place as they were told. Problem is, they mostly live in multi-family apartment buildings with ventilation systems that might possibly be spreading the virus around the building. But you can’t turn off the ventilation in a 10-storey building. The Governor of New York State was, until a few days ago, forcing nursing homes to take recovering coronavirus patients, regardless of whether or not they were able to keep the sick segregated from the healthy.
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Most hospitals are bleeding money. Many will go under. Its ironic that the first major economic damage will be to the world’s health systems. Much like our immune systems they need to treat sickness to stay alive. No patients, no business.
Meanwhile our population goes untested for most other disease and will begin dying from common illness. The numbers will far exceed any virus. These statistics will somehow be added to the Covid-19 total to get more created “money”.
The avalanche of un-cash flow will hit every institution. GST revenue will dry up. Every state will realize to get access to a Federal “print run” they must remain in some form of lock down.
Our rights have finally been taken by the media caused force of state government paternalism.
This can only end in poverty. No V-shaped recovery will occur. Every hour this shut down continues extends the time it takes to recover. For spruikers in the media it will soon become apparent that your employment is now in mortal peril. You have simply talked your way into oblivion.
We will now be fed the mantra of the second wave. Then the third wave etc. Government can only stay popular in the media by abetting fear.
The ALP waits in the wings, a leaderless choice while we exist in the Green New Deal policies of the LNP.
The “new normal” will start to look like a communist economy with committees of “leaders”.
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The only reason hospitals are bleeding is because we stupidly outsourced all our PPE to China, and let them harvest ours back in February.
We shut down wards for elective surgery only because there was not enough PPE.
Obviously that was a stupid security risk and local manufacturing would solve that.
We don’t “know” already that a 7 week delay in testing will kill more people than a winter second wave of Covid would have in Australia. We’ll never know how many lives would have been lost if our hospitals got overwhelmed like NY. The deaths that occur should be blamed on our dependence on China for PPE, not on the virus.
Given what we didn’t know in March, we had no choice but to lockdown, and knowing what we know now, it was a brilliant, fast and probably the cheapest strategy. Waiting for winter would mean a longer shutdown, more deaths, more mutations, and the risk that a mutant would be worse. Now that we know it causes strokes and heart attacks, and probably permanent disability, we can count our lucky stars we got off so cheaply.
The economy is sitting there waiting to take off. Virgin was debt ridden before and the restructure was needed.
I know it’s hard, but “our rights” were not taken by anyone. We live in a democracy, and judging from the polls, most people want safety, fear the virus, and prefer to have a lockdown and keep their grandparents.
The ALP was — like the Libs — a complete failure in stopping the virus entering Australia. So were our academics. So was the WHO. The lockdown could have been avoided.
1312
Fortunately, we do not have to wait too long to see who is correct. I hope I am completely wrong. I want to be wrong.
For those that outsourced our PPE to China, please resign. Better yet go and live in China.
I doubt too many will die from Covid-19 due to a lack of PPE. Our isolation from the world and general well-being saved us more than any other means.
If lockdown across the whole country was “the brilliant, fast and probably the cheapest strategy” what can we expect if there is rapid mutation, no vaccine or treatment in the near future? What is the plan? Please tell us you have one.
The idea that an economy is sitting there waiting to take off is ludicrous. Cash flow has been smashed. The velocity of money (the economy) is rapidly decreasing. Turning it around is never easy. Does anyone believe that our government leaders know how to do this? We are now at 63% of the entire workforce is financed by the government. About 12% of all businesses will cease. They will owe money to the others……
No-one asked the population about whether they would accept a total lockdown. As we may face another such “policy” to combat more “waves” I would expect a general election be called in every state asap to ascertain what people want for their state. Clearly, the Federal Government has no real health powers that matter. It’s every state for themselves and I want to vote for who can lead Victoriastan during this unprecidented crisis. That is democracy. Lets hear their plans.
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https://video.foxnews.com/v/6155535732001#sp=show-clips
Good explanation.
We have simply destroyed our economy for zip due to media driven ignorance.
33
Why no graph for Sweden? Maybe because it is doing better than the lockdown hysterics?
11
Probably because Sweden is not trending towards zero
https://imgur.com/9MrEIIt
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-cases-covid-19?country=AUS+SWE
20
“Why no graph for Sweden? Maybe because it is doing better than the lockdown hysterics?”
I cannot answer why there is no graph, but they are not going for eradication. They are going for herd immunity, so a steady but manageable increase in cases is required to do that.
11
Sweden and other countries/states that are going down different paths to the house arrest model that most of the world is following should be applauded and encouraged as they are collecting valuable data. We would have no way of knowing the best approach for future pandemics without their contribution.
The problem is those that have gone down the house arrest road are feeling the heat. What if Sweden are right and in the long run the house arrest is shown to have done nothing but cause more suicides and other deaths from its side effects.
So they must shut Sweden’s approach down at any cost as they can not tolerate anyone’s else’s approach being better than theirs.
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Sweden is not doing well at all. Their traffic is down 70%, so they are doing more than a half-quarantine, yet it isn’t enough, and the daily cases shows no decline. How many months of deaths and 70% traffic will it take before they admit it was a horrible thing to do to their citizens and their economy?.
Surely 6 weeks of 90% quarantine with masks and Vit D is cheaper than 6 months at 70% with an economy half crippled with fear?
The “house arrest” also happens de facto for many people over 60 in a country where the virus runs free. Many older folk feel imprisoned even if the government says they can roam because they don’t feel safe. It’s just a different kind of lockdown. One works and the other bleeds for months.
1219
Yes some in Sweden will be taking precautions especially the old but the old also need to take a lot more precautions in general as they are lot more susceptible to a lot of potentially fatal diseases. I don’t think that just because the old would feel Imprisoned if they were the only ones told/decided to stay home is an excuse to shut down the country including the young and fit who have little too fear from CV19 and who are paying the bills. Locking up a 20 year old will have far greater consequences for their well-being and financial future than an immobile 95year old.
Big assumption on your part to think that 6weeks at 90% and everything will be alright again. It seems a lot of Australians are also crippled with fear including a number on this blog even though currently their chances of getting CV19 right now are extremely remote. Also big assumption that Sweden’s economy won’t be in far better shape than ours when at some point in the distant future we can accurately call a result. This has a long way to run.
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Not sure why Sweden is seen as doing well when they appear to be on track to lose around a million people
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coronavirus-cfr?time=2020-03-06..&country=AUS+FIN+NOR+SWE+GBR+BLR
One can only hope they are massively under-testing and there is much wider community spread, since death is about 2 weeks after infection and therefore we should be comparing to the case numbers 2 weeks ago (making the CFR higher)
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand?country=AUS+FIN+NOR+SWE+GBR+BLR
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disorganise
“Not sure why Sweden is seen as doing well”
Some sort of blind delusion or dishonesty. It is very clearly among the worst countries with every number growing rapidly toward the most horrible outcome possible. Just over took the Netherlands in deaths per Million and will soon pass France.
Sweden are the lab rats of the world. It is from their demise that we will learn how bad all the late onset problems and related diseases that appear eventually like this “pediatric multisystem inflammatory” Kawasaki thing that is now killing Children can get. It will be a heavily brain damaged country due to the 36% of “recovered” suffering some form of that. It will be the liver failure center of the earth. The go to place to see stroke victims in a hopeless mess. There will be heart failures and an ongoing cost burden of it all to remind us all for centuries.
20
Given their current deaths/day is less than 70, that should only take 39 years…
A most curious prediction.
41
Based on a population size of 10 million Aaron.
Community immunity requires ~70-80% spread, so 7-8million infected. With fatality rate of 12% = 840k-960k….or about a million.
If you hope the spread is 10x what is reported, then the true CFR is around 1.2%. Still 100k deaths, and still not a great result in my opinion.
22
Your maths is correct, but your prediction is too simplistic, assumes much and that includes predicting the future.
As I mentioned previously, the current rate of deaths/day in Sweden is hovering below 70, having peaked at 114/115 during the week of April 8th.
Your prediction will take 39 years to confirm. As a sanity check, this tells me your prediction is probably incorrect, most likely due to its simplistic derivation.
The Imperial College pandemic model was applied to Sweden and got it stunningly wrong as well, so it comes as no surprise that an even simpler formula using fatality rate alone would be so far off.
51
Aaron Christiansen
“deaths/day in Sweden”
“having peaked at 114/115 during the week of April 8th.”
There have been seven days with higher daily deaths since then. Best go off and pick a new peak even though it is unlikely to be real either until the active cases number stops doubling.
41
No, there have not. Another person who does not understand data accumulation. Do a search on this page and try to wrap your head around it.
22
Is there a graph, or any data for the famous UK government epidemiologist who was experimenting with herd immunity recently?
00
Aaron Christiansen
“Do a search on this page and try to wrap your head around it.”
Ok did that and can see that you don’t appear to even be using your own theory. A theory that no doubt has a lot in common with the one that predicted 20,000 deaths in the U.S.
Anyone can see without much effort that there is a near regular, near sine wave seven day oscillation. Removing this by using (Weekly total deaths)/7 gives the following. Other data sources may differ slightly due to using local time or GMT/UTC but the result won’t change that much.
The week beginning Sunday March 29 38.3 deaths per day.
Your week beginning Sunday April 5 73.4
The week beginning Sunday April 12 89.1
The week beginning Sunday April 19 97.3
The week beginning Sunday April 26 68.1
The week beginning Sunday May 3 78.7
Why are you not using a peak that agrees with your own theory?
00
Me: having peaked at 114/115 during the week of April 8th.
You: There have been seven days with higher daily deaths since then.
Me: No there haven’t.
You: Removing this by using (Weekly total deaths)/7 blah blah blah…
Me: WTAF, we’re discussing peaks, of which you said there have been 7 higher than the ones (114/ 115) I cited. WTF are you talking about averages for. Good grief.
You: “Why are you not using a peak that agrees with your own theory?”
Me: This guy equates peaks with averages. Reading comprehension WTF.
I don’t need a theory when we have the actual official, Swedish data.
Hint: Avlidna/dag = deaths/day and you can click on it to see that graph.
12
Aaron Christiansen
Looking into it a bit more deeply finds flaws in your superficial take on this. There are two sets of “official data”. One from the National Board of Health and Welfare, the other from the Public Health Agency. Both warn that official data waits for government fine detail like death certificates to be processed. So the “worldometer” data though possibly a bit less accurate is far more current.
Ignoring that strange link with possibly further delayed data you provided and using the most up to date and likely accurate slow official data from this link below shows as did your link that the most likely 24 hour peak was between 20-4-15 and 20-4-16. You seem to prefer the 24 hours averaged ove a calendar day.
https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/globalassets/sharepoint-dokument/dokument-webb/statistik/statistik-covid19-avlidna-20200508.pdf
You possibly did not grasp the need for the weekly total because that data does not clearly show the weekly oscillation seen in the “worldometer data”. That could be because “death certificates” etc pile up and get processed when someone still alive is found to do them.
Here is that more official data source for you to get data averaged over a calendar 24 hours from.
https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/statistik-och-data/statistik/statistik-om-covid-19/statistik-over-antal-avlidna-i-covid-19/
People who would like to figure this out in less than four months could go here instead.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Not hard to see the next high peak will be around March 14 or 15.
10
correction “Not hard to see the next high peak will be around” May 14 or 15. Meaning Daily deaths shown by worldometer.
00
“You seem to prefer the 24 hours averaged ove a calendar day.”
Incorrect. I prefer the official Swedish data, as previously linked and noted multiple times.
“You possibly did not grasp the need for the weekly total”.
Correct. A peak in “deaths per day” has nothing to do with weekly totals, and never will. There is no averaging necessary – not even a 24 hour average (wt?) – for a “deaths per day peak”, and to suggest anything to the contrary is so perplexing that I cannot fathom someone doing so. Yet here you are.
Someone either died on a particular day or they did not. No averaging required.
The alleged “strange” link can be found on one of the Swedish news websites confirming case numbers by a certain date. It’s updated by the Swedes and contains the official data, as you subsequently found.
“Not hard to see the next high peak will be around March 14 or 15.” (ie May 14/15)
Perhaps you are basing this on a simple minded viewing of another “peak” in active cases. There may be other assumptions (such as the Swedish health system being incapable of adapting to the situation) however they have not been outlined, and one can only guess based on the lack of expression of your reasoning.
Looking at the official data from Sweden, this time including the delay of information, it would appear to show that whilst there may be a rise compared to surrounding days, it will be nowhere near the peak suggested by worldometer and their provably incorrect portrayal of data.
It is curious that having been shown how incorrect the worldometer data is that you would double down with another prediction based on that woefully inadequate repository.
Let’s revisit this on May 14/15 to see if your prognostication holds.
12
There have been seven days with higher daily deaths since then.
I note an inability to admit an error on your part, btw.
Truth doesn’t matter to ideologues.
12
A day measured London(GMT, UTC) time will differ by deaths that occur in the 2 hour time differences to those recorded Stockholm time. The peak 24 hour period is different again. Little point discussing more complex dynamics if you refuse to understand that but instead seek to confuse the three.
00
“A day measured London(GMT, UTC) time will differ by deaths that occur in the 2 hour time differences to those recorded Stockholm time.”
Again, immaterial when Sweden know when people die, and add those deaths to the daily total for that day.
But, you know, bang on about “complex dynamics” when Occam’s razor says a person who died on Monday did actually die on Monday and should be recorded as such.
Given the up to 14 day delay for death stats to be updated, I’ll return here to check your prediction that May 14/15 will peak – implying as high as they did April 15.
I also note your ongoing inability to admit you were mistaken.
20
” implying as high as they did April 15.”
No implying as higher than “having peaked at 114/115” (your words) “Meaning Daily deaths shown by worldometer” (my words).
And it has already happened. 147 deaths from May 13 at 0 GMT/UTC to May at GMT/UTC. Not May 13 +2 GMT?UTC to May 14 +2 GMT/UTC, which could differ.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Lets see what today and tomorrow bring.
00
“And it has already happened. 147 deaths”
Despite showing you and you allegedly understanding, that the worldometer data is wrong, you persist.
May 13th was 50 deaths.
This is 2 weeks after that day. I only returned as promised to show your prediction completely incorrect.
NO doubt you will persist in using a rubbish datasource. I wish you well with that but won’t continue to rebut its use here any longer.
00
It’s incredible, yarpos.
I don’t mind people sharing their opinions but some of them are so utterly convinced and confident that they know what has happened, and why, and what will happen. Just incredible.
[Aaron, I agree, so I’ve taken Bill’s out and asked him to use less inflammatory language and try to make an argument instead. I’ve had enough of the flame wars on this topic. – Jo]
153
That’s hilarious coming from you Aaron !
You remind me of a medieval priest
Telling us all we must ‘suffer & die’
To get to heaven.
But you are only offering the fake promise
Of Herd Immunity’ mate.
LOL !
415
It would appear you are severely lacking in reading comprehension, Bill.
The most strenuous I have been in regards to Sweden is expressing gratitude that they provide a control vs the rest of the world going into lock down. That and being aware of Swedish figures whilst you and your ilk cling to unreliable data.
Not once have I said we must suffer and die.
Not once have I offered the “fake promise” of herd immunity.
I am not your mate, and will not call you a liar, as I would not ascribe malice to false words like yours when other explanations are so much simpler.
163
I would rather not be grateful to the 3,000 people who died to prove an idea wrong. I would rather they were alive. It was madness. Stop it now.
There was a joke about a Bob Geldof’s concert where he said every time he clapped, a child in Africa died. And someone yelled out, For God’s Sake stop clapping.
85
And the strict lock down employed by Belgium that lead to 52,000 infections and 8,552 deaths?
When study after study shows home (including long-term nursing) and hospital are where infection clusters are typically created? That children don’t appear to transmit to adults? That outdoor clusters are rare at best?
Someone else made a salient observation of you anti-Swedish model commenters: you are good at calling the final score at the start of the game.
Without a control, we have Ernie with a banana in his ear to keep the alligators away. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwsmqZLCKPE
You don’t know what is going to happen, you do not know what would have happened, but confidently state Sweden are doing it wrong. Looks like Hong Kong are doing similar – treating their citizens like adults (quelle horreur!) but not closing shops, etc. Not going too badly there so far.
I personally do not know what is going to happen, nor do I claim to know what would have happened if we followed Sweden.
Is herd immunity possible?
Does Australia need tourism?
Will people with 2 weeks annual leave (US is our 3rd largest market) spend it in quarantine in Australia as part of their holiday?
Are we going to lock down every time there’s an outbreak?
Is a vaccine possible?
Given SARS and MERS do not have a vaccine, how can we have one for COVID-19 given it’s based on the same structure?
Even if we get a vaccine, seasonal flu deaths remain despite having decades of vaccine development and adoption for it. Would a COVID-19 vaccine be more effective?
How much damage is being done to the people forced to stay at home now?
What effect does a depressed economy have on a population?
How many cancer / heart issue / etc patients have missed medical care or died due to COVID-19 fear mongering?
What effect would being under house arrest have on the mental health of citizens?
How will this lock down affect suicide numbers?
Which process works out better in the long run – lock down or herd immunity?
How do we measure success in either case, and would our self-serving masters release sufficient data to determine the truth?
etc…
To be clear, these are rhetorical. Nobody with any sense would even pretend to know, it’s something we need to find out.
It’s something we cannot find out without a control. The scientific method demands it. I am grateful. I’d rather not see anyone die to this, but wishful thinking doesn’t work in the real world.
73
Not once has Aaron provided any data on Sweden. It is clearly a disaster unfolding there. They will easily eclipse Belgium for the wooden spoon simply because they are making no effort to eradicate the virus.
Taiwan had their first case on 16 February. They had eliminated the spread of the virus by early April with a death toll of 6. They have shown the rest of the world how to do it. Clearly Anders Tegnell is too arrogant to look at what they did and how. Taiwan has 2.4X the population of Sweden and Taipei has twice the population density of Stockholm.
Sweden had their first case 15 March. So a month longer to prepare than Taiwan. They are waiting for those at death’s door to arrive at hospital and only 60% are likely to see daylight again. They have locked in 80 deaths per day for the foreseeable future.
You could never express enough gratitude for those who have given their life in Sweden for the downright arrogance of Anders Tegnell or your perverted interest in looking at a silly strategy. Complete disregard for what actually works. As the death toll mounts they will inevitably change their approach, whether decreed or just scared. The people will simply not want to interact with others for fear of being infected. No one will be permitted to see their aged parents in care homes unless through glass.
Their herd immunity is 5 to 8 years away. A vaccine might come along to avoid this time frame but herd immunity won’t.
As an example of Sweden’s great freedoms and community trust, parents get fined or kids fostered out if they try to home school their children to reduce the risk of getting the virus in their home.
75
A beautifully crafted comment there Aaron.
Sadly most of it will be wasted considering that the subject has minimal skills in comprehension and won’t get it.
104
Jo, I despise dishonesty.
Here are the figures for Sweden :
642 new cases and 135 new deaths in Sweden
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Scroll down the link, to the updates for Friday ( yesterday ) .
Aaron asserts that his has better more accurate information.
From the Swedish government.
But has not provided a link to support his ‘assertions’.
It would be useful if he could provide a trustworthy link to back up his ‘assertion’
310
Because someone already showed you and you completely ignored it, claiming the differences were due to time zone issues, ignoring the fact that Sweden has actual data and worldometers simply calculates death differences day to day, based on total deaths, unable to know when someone actually died. When I write “you do not understand data accumulation”, it’s not having a dig at you, it’s stating a verifiable fact.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/viral-numerology-coronavirus-fades-after-6-to-8-weeks-due-to-magic-or-something/#comment-2314921
105
You mean this link showing 3175 deaths so far.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
That is exactly the same as worldometer. There was an increase from 3040 on Thursday. I make that 135 deaths for Friday 8 May.
The death rate is not reducing. Death rate averaged 76 per day through April.
You are claiming death rate is falling – they are not. They are locked in at 80 per day for the foreseeable future.
64
I will not ascribe malice to your comment, far simpler explanations suffice.
For you and everyone else who is quick to call the final score at the end of the game, please consider that “Avlidna/dag” means deaths per day. It’s not underlined, but if you click it, it will show you the official Swedish figures for … yes, deaths per day. They hit 73 on the 25th of April, and appear to be decidedly tapering down.
I have a post explaining why this is the case (why worldometers appears to show 173 deaths in a day), simplified from the link I posted previously (https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus), however it’s not being released from moderation.
This event is not over by a long-shot. To attempt to bully people who hold a different opinion than yours, calling them perverse, or a PhD in charge of an entire country’s medical health “arrogant”, acting as if you know what has happened and why is ridiculous.
115
Again if you have the perverse view that 73 on 25th April to 99 on Thursday 7 May and 135 on 8 May is “appearing” to taper down then you are delusional.
I hold Taiwan as the gold standard. 6 deaths in total, which occurred on 10 Apr. Apart from international tourism, the Taiwan economy is travelling as normal.
Anders’ PhD in medicine must require the same level of common sense as a PhD in climate science. Michael Mann has a PhD. Qualifications are no measure of ability. He is a public servant, who has not served his public very well.
62
I have noted that there are two streams of opinion. And those who disagree with one go to the trouble of red thumbing everyone who says anything different. Automatically.
What is certain is that as Jo points out, isolation leads to elimination. Theory at the start, this cannot be disputed now.
And those following herd immunity theories are going to kill a lot of people, albeit older people who are disposable, apparently.
Isolation works. Hard borders work. As expected. And all lives are precious without judgement.
We in Australia can celebrate that we are not Sweden, not the UK, not the US. And feel so sorry for those countries whose leaders who tried to have a bet each way.
It’s not too late. As we celebrate WW2’s end, we can suggest that a few weeks of denial will save tens of thousands of lives. Or is that too much to ask?
74
Agreed. The anti-Swedes who think you know exactly what has happened and is going to happen.
And the other group, including myself, who are not sure, and are waiting to see.
Then there’s the group you and Bill belong in, who ascribe claims to “others” dishonestly. Here you say older people are disposable, insinuating that’s what the people who are pursuing herd mentality believe. And your mate Rick has the audacity to call my attitude perverse. Good grief.
Despite the fact that stringent lock downs in countless countries have not prevented thousands of deaths often over 50% from nursing homes. For some reason you give them a pass. How curious. How… ideological.
What is certain? Why am I reminded of “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence”. Or Hebrews 11:1. My only issue with this “other” group to which you belong, is your unshakable belief that you are right. Me? I am not sure. I am going to wait and see.
Unshakable belief again. For how long does isolation work? How do you define “works”? We’re back to “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence”.
This is the same argument made by the Paris accord. Slashing CO2 emissions works. But only if everyone does it.
Not everyone is going to isolate. Even the ones who have isolated strictly are failing, miserably in many cases.
Do you honestly think Australia can survive in this world as an isolated country for the rest of time?
Believing in simple solutions to incredibly complex, stochastic, chaotic systems seems myopic to me.
We are coming out of summer, with maximum possible Vit D via sunlight exposure meaning maximum immunity, in a warm part of our year, on an island separated by vast quantities of sea water, with limited airport access and international movement, with a comparatively young median aged population.
None of which is due to our own actions, it’s accidental. And probably a large portion of why we have done as well as we have.
113
If you look at the data published by Sweden, you’d see, that May 8 is currently listed as 4 deaths, and May 7 is currently listed as 21 deaths.
But despite being provided a link to the official Swedish data, you refuse to or are incapable of looking at it. That’s not my fault nor my problem.
You are clearly blinded by your ideological position.
64
Aaron, this is the fifth time you have said others are blinded by an ‘ideological position’.
Please stop.
I do not have an ‘ideological position’. What you keep repeating is wrong. That’s just logic, science, fact, not ideology. If anything is true, people in Sweden are dying in their thousands. For an ideological position.
37
What else would you call it?
You cannot possibly know what you claim to know. Isolation good, herd immunity bad. It’s your opinion, and your opinion ONLY, yet you state it with utmost confidence as if it were fact, incapable of even considering you may be wrong.
If it were an election you’d be voting the lock down party and nothing anyone could possibly say would change your mind.
Because to me it looks purely and simply like ideology.
Me? I don’t know. I would prefer herd immunity to work out. Being stuck inside every time there’s a break out and isolating Australia from the rest of the world until a magical vaccine comes along and saves everyone sounds like a pie in the sky miracle to me. And I don’t believe in miracles. If herd immunity doesn’t work out, I don’t have to return here and say I was wrong because my position is a hope, not stated as fact.
The only things I state as fact are official figures from a Swedish website as to their deaths as they have recorded them.
And pointing out that so far, isolation has not proven better than pursuing herd immunity. Isolated cases notwithstanding.
103
Aaron do you by any chance have a link to herd immunity, How it works and the benefits and estimated time scale for Sweden to reach this much vaunted Herd Immunity.
I have a vague recollection of being taught about herd immunity at school about 70 years ago. It went like this. African Buffalo get herd immunity from death by Lion by surrounding and protecting their young and pregnant females. They make the Lions pay for their meal! Lions often go hungry!
Can you link me to any viral disease where herd immunity has been achieved?
On a different topic.
Novel-SARS-CoV-2 is exactly that; NOVEL in a rare usage of that word, meaning unknown properties!
It may well be that all living humans in a few years time will have had a Novel-SARS-CoV-2 infection, but there are no bets as to that providing Herd immunity because the virus is NOVEL. No one, not even the Chinese know all the ways in which it fights its war inside the human body in order to get into more and more bodies.
It may be that those poor unfortunates who die are the lucky ones!
Look up Typhoid Mary, she killing thousands with-out knowing she was infectious. Some of those asymptomatic people may be carriers who will need to be tracked down and when found sent to (Sweden perhaps)?
On a different topic.
It is known that Novel-SARS-CoV-2 is mutating like all viruses inevitably do, care to place bets that the mutated strains will be less or more damaging to humans?
On yet another topic.
We have influenza in cyclic periods, Influenza is a virus. Viruses cannot exist for long outside a host. Where does the influenza virus live between our three monthly peak flu periods? It does not have legs or wings it must hide somewhere has anybody really looked?
Finally the jury is out debating the repeat infection possibilities sometime later this year. The existence of antibodies are a notoriously unknown factor, that may or may not offer immunity for months or years!
I for one will boost my immune system and when the Novel-SARS-CoV-2 tries to get into my system it will have a battle royal to face.
There is NO MONEY IN A STRONG IMMUNE SYSTEM!
A crisis is a good way to gain control of just about any situation if you have the will to gain that sort of control over, well us!
10
“Aaron do you by any chance have a link to herd immunity, How it works and the benefits and estimated time scale for Sweden to reach this much vaunted Herd Immunity.”
Nic Lewis just released an article discussing it here: https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/
It’s on Judith’s blog but it’s Nic’s words, and there’s a link at the bottom to view it on Nic’s site and download a PDF.
—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-
“Can you link me to any viral disease where herd immunity has been achieved?”
I doubt my google fu is any better than yours, and a quick search says Polio is one such example, but it will be context (ie geography, etc) dependent.
—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-
“It may well be that all living humans in a few years time will have had a Novel-SARS-CoV-2 infection, but there are no bets as to that providing Herd immunity because the virus is NOVEL. No one, not even the Chinese know all the ways in which it fights its war inside the human body in order to get into more and more bodies.”
It’s a virus, and the basic mechanism for transmission is pretty well known – standard flu virus transmission – droplets of bodily fluid, primarily mucus and saliva from nose / mouth.
—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-
“It is known that Novel-SARS-CoV-2 is mutating like all viruses inevitably do, care to place bets that the mutated strains will be less or more damaging to humans?”
Google “virus trade-off model” for some interesting reading on this question.
—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-
“I for one will boost my immune system”
And the best way for doing that is not staying at home, but going outside and soaking up some free UV-B from the sun to generate some Vitamin D.
00
“We have influenza in cyclic periods, Influenza is a virus. Viruses cannot exist for long outside a host. Where does the influenza virus live between our three monthly peak flu periods? It does not have legs or wings it must hide somewhere has anybody really looked?”
I asked that question here
00
Sorry DeF
Meant to be a green one
28
Yes the sour red thumb gang is hard at work.
An apology to TdeF gets 5 of them.
Some folks are definitely trolling the blog.
No doubt this will get some more from the RTG as well
And from ‘SOV’ the ‘Save Our Virus’ mob.
05
Follow this model link at the end from IHME for Sweden, other countries, and all 50 USA states. Ive been following this for a month, and the model just changed from 450 max deaths per day at end of May in Sweden. and now showing a decline to 131 a day max at end of May.
Follow the trend and not daily reporting as daily numbers are sometimes accumulated values from Sweden. Something has obviously changed in the model, but only time will tell if Sweden is over the hump now doing a better job protecting those in nursing homes where a large majority of deaths occurred, and also those with at risk health factors for CoVid-19. They believe letting everyone else with healthy immune systems go on with life using common sense social distancing skills, extra hand washing, etc. is the way to go, but way too early to tell.
New York City is now reporting that 66% of all new CoVid-19 cases are coming from those who profess to be abiding by lock down orders. Interesting data out everyday, but it’s going to take a very long time to digest it all.
So, I think it’s far too early to cast aspersions, and from what I’ve read, most Swedes are happy with the governments response so far, although they admit guilt that the most vulnerable were not protected early on in nursing homes where Sweden practices in large facilities versus Norway that practices in small facilities.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden
51
Aaron Christiansen
it’s now the 9th of May.
You have just posted a link to another ( very abusive comment ) by someone called Craig Strange on JoNova from the 20th of April at 4.34 pm ( Jo why was this allowed to stand ? #11.3.1.1.1 )
! : In that comment from the 20th of April is a link to the Swedish statistics site.
So the evidence you offer at last is from a comment 19 days ago.
Do you really expect all of us here to remember that abusive comment & link from 19 days ago ?
How bizarre & foolish of you.
2: I looked at the Swedish statistic site. I do not understand Swedish but the figures are fairly easy to read. And as Rick has just pointed out they are identical to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
What can we say about a person who makes such comments ? Well I’m not allowed to say it bluntly. So I won’t. But I do not lie.
39
Nor, it would appear, do you want to.
Incorrect. I posted a link to a comment that also contained a link I have been using any time I have discussed Sweden’s data, to show you are not interested in evidence.
I would expect someone who posts so confidently and frequently about the terrible state of Sweden’s handling of this to at least pretend to be informed based on the information available from Sweden. You do not have to remember the link, you can do as I have done and bookmark it. No remembering required.
You already commented previously without looking at the information available in a link I posted. I am not surprised you would not look at more information I post. You did not look at the information posted 19 days ago either, despite it proving you wrong.
You must have lead a very sheltered life indeed if the comment I linked to is “very abusive”. This may go some way to explaining the abject fear you live in and why you constantly lash out at anyone who dares hold a non-lock down strategy thought.
113
I’ve been following CoVid-19 data on the IHME website for weeks now, and it’s interesting to note the change in the latest data as related to Sweden. Note, the IHME data is listed for several countries and all 50 States in the USA if you want to look at the models.
Before the last iteration the IHME data was calling for 450 deaths a day in Sweden peaking around May 27th, and the newest modeling is down to 131 deaths a day peaking around the end of May before declining. There were just 135 daily deaths reported May 8th, but the Swedish numbers have always spiked and then declined based upon what looks like accumulated reporting. Will just have to keep following the numbers over the next 18 months and see where everybody levels out on a total health basis, and economic basis related to CoVid-19. And I say economic basis only because as the unemployment rate rises for an extended period so does death by suicide, drug OD, alcoholism, etc.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden
Also, Interesting new numbers out of New York City, USA is that 66% of new CoVid-19 cases are from people who are following what they consider lock down orders at home. Vitamin D deficiency, lack of immune health from non daily activity that exercises a healthy immune response, etc. (?). Time will tell, but it will be a long time before the dust settles on this one as to what was a correct response as this virus is now with us, and it can’t be put back in the Wuhan Lab.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242547366.html
21
Models ?
Ummmmmm ?
None of us here have any faith in models.
Arithmetic yes; Models No.
06
Correct Mr. Oz, most models are only as good as the assumptions used, but you are missing the point of looking at data at the IHME website. They not only show the models forecasted death projections, but are also showing the actual deaths per day as reported. They have been seeing how the model is doing, or as you say following the arithmetic, and then adjusting the model based upon real data.
So, what has the actual daily data said versus the IHME actively adjusted model based upon arithmetic? They were modeling 70% more deaths in Sweden by late May than they are now. Max deaths were projected at 450 per day and are now 131. If you look at the 3 day rolling average in Sweden since the 138 deaths were posted on May 8th, that number is somewhere around 30 per day. What does bother me is the IHME site is not showing the correct daily deaths per day knowing the last 4 data points, so I’m not sure if they are using some type of rolling average, or posting incorrect data points since May 8th.
The site linked below does graph the correct number of daily deaths in Sweden if you just want to look at raw data without a modeling curve. Point is, now I’m watching the data to see if IHME under factored deaths in the latest model, or have yet again over factored projected deaths as they did before.
Data is data, so it’s an interesting question to see how go it alone Sweden is doing with CoVid-19 building herd immunity. Remember, the world shut down based upon a faulty model by Ferguson, so I’m with you on the models. This virus is nasty for a lot of reasons, and I don’t dismiss it, but nasty also are all the social ills and untreated illnesses that are also killing people in lockdown, and hopefully those will soon be tracked as well.
Bend the curve to not overwhelm the healthcare system has now become nobody can catch a virus at all cost. Is that unreasonable? I don’t know, but citizens in countries not run by totalitarian dictatorships will eventually let us know. And yes, some island states knocked out spread of the last infection injection, but how many times does that lockdown happen in the future, and at what cost?
Lots of data to collect over the next 5-10 years, but somebody will do it, and we can all argue about that data too.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths?country=SWE#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths
00
“They were modeling 70% more deaths in Sweden by late May than they are now. Max deaths were projected at 450 per day and are now 131. If you look at the 3 day rolling average in Sweden since the 138 deaths were posted on May 8th,”
There is not a single day recorded in Sweden where there was 131 deaths or 138 deaths. It’s a data calculation / accumulation error.
“The site linked below does graph the correct number of daily deaths in Sweden if you just want to look at raw data without a modeling curve.”
No, it doesn’t.
If you want to see the correct daily deaths in Sweden look here: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
00
Aaron, in my previous posts I already stated I understood that data reported out of Sweden has been spiked up and down since it was not always actual daily deaths reported, but sometimes accumulated values. The 138 on May 8th was understood by me to be an accumulated value, but I didn’t make that very clear here as I was more concerned at my linked site data that the last 3 IHME data points this week for Sweden were all in the 80’s and not the lower know values.
Since I don’t understand Swedish, and the daily death graph is hard to see a number there, or trust a true daily number elsewhere, I think I’ll just stick with watching the trends on the sites I’ve been watching and see where they go. It’s served me well so far, but thanks for letting me know where the Swedish report their actual data.
00
No worries mate. Click on “Avlidna/dag” to see “deaths/day”. If you mouse over the green bars, the date and total deaths for that day appear in a popup.
Appreciate the clarification.
00
All models are wrong.
Some are useful.
The largest recorded deaths in a day for Sweden was 115: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
Please look at “Avlidna/dag” then move your mouse over the green bars rather than telling me about worldometers data and 135 deaths last Thursday.
61
Yeah, we should give up now, we can’t possibly beat a virus, we’re doomed to failure. Yarpos, what do we get if we take your implied advice, and just give up and accept defeat? Hundreds of thousands of dead Australians is what we’d get. We can do considerably better than complete failure as the best and only ‘smart move’ option.
We won’t get 100% free of this virus in future but we definitely can remain 99.9% free of it from here. And I fail to see how the Solomon Islands is directly connected to Shanghai when an ocean and a 14 day quarantine makes them disconnected in location and time. And metal shipping containers which cross the equator in the bright sunshine, and reach over 70 degrees C inside, with very high humidity, assures that virus won’t come via shipped materials, and the crews will not be permitted to disembark without serving a quarantine period and proving they don’t have the virus incubating.
It looks as though you are trying to maintain a, “closed minded thought bubble”.
1211
It is possible that a vaccine will be found quickly and the Australia / NZ / Denmark / Norway etc approach will be seen as the most effective. But without a vaccine it is difficult to see how the success in these countries can be sustained. For sure Norway and Denmark will get upsurges in infections in the next 2-3 months and then what ? Lock down again ?
It may be possible for Australia and NZ, with the benefit of their geographic isolation, to keep the virus suppressed and even potentially eliminated. But Johan Giesecke is right. If no vaccine is found the only way to sustain that is years and years of isolation. And the issue for Australia and NZ is that the virus problem will not be big enough to warrant that kind of continual global separation.
We will really only know the true lethality and infectiousness of this disease in the next year or so. Until then all countries are basically running their own accidental experiments and so and the true outcomes (in terms of deaths, and economic damage) are yet to materialise.
41
Please ell us what model of crystal ball you are using.
It’s probably made in CCP China
03
Tonyb,
It’s not just airports that are still operating but also seaport and the Eurotunnel. Eurotunnel!
Here is the banality of advice the Eurotunnel operators offer to the traveling public …
(from https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travelling-with-us/latest/covid-19/ )
Nobody will knows or cares where people traveling to the UK have originated from, the UK just lets them in!
240
Tom
As you can see here the French require travel details and a good reason for travelling whilst the UK will not question you
https://help.eurotunnel.com/hc/en-gb/articles/209267265-What-about-people-only-travelling-from-Calais-to-Folkestone-
A lot of travel on eurotunnel will be of freight lorries but the fact passenger trains are also running must mean there are some people travelling? I think seaports are very largely freight lorries
70
Yes Tonyb,
But the words ‘super spreader’ spring to mind.
40
[SNip Crass repeats] … you know nothing about viruses
111
Apart from two prizes in microbiology and a peer reviewed paper on DNA probes.
Please stop with the relentless boring hatemail.
154
Let us pray your southern hemisphere’s late fall and winter are kind to you.
We in Canada have sealed borders with the USA. Our airlines follow the rules. Stay at home, out of the parks and safe distancing
Our failure has been the workers and residents of residences and long term care. Insufficient staff, training and PPE. 70% of all deaths.
Make sure you folks have these well covered or risk a terrible toll.
190
How could that possibly happen with the Canadian PM having the same ideology as the PM of New Zealand?
61
The difference is the Canadian prime ministers yearning for total control. If he thought it would fly he would lock us all down until we ae starved into submission. He has been trying to starve Alberta into submission for his entire term. Now he has the support of two other socialist parties and a party with its own parallel agenda.
71
Keith, thanks, I’m interested in any analysis of the Canadian situation and why their numbers are not declining. So any links to transmission data (community spread) or traffic flows and whatnot are appreciated. Have any provinces closed borders?
62
In British Columbia, the Fraser Health authourity and Vancouver Coastal authourity have the most dynamic increases. Lots of retired people in Coastal health, lots of increases in Fraser health that includes Vancouver and other major population centers.
When the lock down first cropped up I had a conversation with a South China Morning Post journalist who reports on Vancouver’s hybrid culture(s) of the area. The Chinese in Richmond (over 50% Chinese, mainland and Hong Kong) were On the social distancing thing right from the get go. Cultural practice. The Chinese were appalled at the beach / park goers in Vancouver. I have Asian friends from other nations and they all are On for careful behaviour (protect the family).
What I said to Ian Young https://www.scmp.com/author/ian-young was that Vancouver and districts have Vast mixed population of immigrants from everywhere. Different cultural practices, different sense of their place in the social contract within the Canadian context. I bet then that there was going to be a certain belligerence on the part of the populace in short order and within two weeks, sure enough folks are taking to the beach. Certain religious practices of certain faiths have had difficulties as well.
Now all the economy choking systems are in place with regards to businesses and behaviours of folks is in the main pretty good. However the good weather is coming on.
The covid curve is still relatively high though the graded relaxing of restrictions will commence at the middle of the month with the promise of restarting certain businesses. Hair stylists are freaking out and demanding clear guidance for How to proceed safely, as an example so it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
The Fraser authourity cases,I haven’t delved into the detail and they are hard to come by by the choice of the government. The main reason to limit the information on certain details is the issue of racism (Chinese bug, you can go from there) and the dodge of privacy concerns the government always uses.
Anyway, in the highly populated areas of the province there are many, many retired folks (nursing home cases)and the meat packing industry issues and the same for the coastal health area. No restrictions of inter-provincial travel. A large resource industry population in mining and logging plus farming is importing labour for spring planting. These folks go into and leave camps all over the province. Much has been said about this reality of comings and goings in other places.
https://covid19now.com/covid-19-bc/
Thank God we have closed the boarder to the Americans / international visitors.
I live in a small community that is relatively homogeneous in character so the social contract is in the main functioning. Certain other small communities in the province just flat out refuse to serve “strangers” and are not bashful about it.
I haven’t seen my daughter since Christmas and we are mulling whether we should even try though she has been socially isolated since the beginning and she can fly on a social separation organized float plane service.
As bad as it has been for the economy here where I live, the quiet is quite pleasant. I am retired and well enough fixed so to do my bit to conforming my behaviour to the needs of everyone else is a cake walk.
50
The situation in Canada is actually more complex than the graph indicates. For starters, if you actually look at scale, Canada flattened the curve at half the death rate currently occurring in the US. Then, we have Montreal, where half of the national cases have occurred and where the curve has not flattened. All the other provinces than Quebec either prevented serious outbreaks or are in strong downward trends. To be fair, that just started in Ontario.
The explanation has three parts:
1. Care Homes for the elderly and disabled, where more than half of the deaths have occurred. Sweden also suffered from excessive optimism about how ready such places were.
2. March Break. Around the middle of March, there was a wave of young and old heading for a week or two in warmer climes. This was especially true of Montreal. This was a failure on the part of all levels of government to tell or force people to stay home, which they did the week after. I gather lots of Swedes went south for vacations and brought the bug back with them.
3. Large scale food processing plants. Any work environment where people work closely together was an outbreak ready to happen and food was regarded as essential, again with excessive optimism about readiness. Half of the cases in Alberta came from meatpacking.
British Columbia had cases early, like Washington state, and handled the outbreak especially well. Some of the smaller places like New Brunswick and Nunavut blocked inward travel and are essentially virus free at this point.
There is much to be learned from many countries by examining the details.
10
WHO is Crazy but paid well?
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters
“Mosquito’s cannot infect you with COVID-19”!
I do not know what sort of qualifications the author of that statement has but s/he sure does not have a brain!
All insects and a few animals who are ‘blood suckers’ carry all sorts of bacteria and viruses around from the blood of their last host. Mosquitoes are no exception!
When a mosquito inserts its feeding tube into you it is NOT a one-way transmission!
There will be a residue of its last meal that can and will contain bacteria and viruses. There is no one way valve!
I don’t know if a mosquito can inject other stuff but suspect that it needs to clean its feeding tube to ensure maximum flow rate because it is vulnerable while connected to its food supply. If the mosquito’s last host had the virus in its blood then there is a very high risk that the virus will be transmitted to the new host!
There is low risk but not zero risk!
213
Excellent point Slithers there is so much about this virus that’s unknown .
70
Good point and good call, that may be part of the reason why COVID-19 transmits even faster in equatorial and tropical wetter countries than in sub tropical colder and drier countries.
123
WXcycles
Do you have citations or links to that ? That is the first time I have heard that ‘fact’
21
I’ve presented the data and discussed that pattern within the global data many times, for instance:
https://i.ibb.co/pxTBjv0/Warm-v-Cool-Countries-Percent-Died-Covid-19-29th-March-to-11th-April.png
41
For a counter-argument, the following suggest that humid, warm air kills COVID-19 quicker than cooler, drier air:
Article from medical news today: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome#4060%-humidity-may-be-ideal
A study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720317393
Video from America’s DoHS which is what motivated me to reply as it stuck in my head just how effective heat+humidity was in killing this virus: https://youtu.be/3XqkU8yJOmc?t=94
Surface condition 70-75F 20% humidity = 18 hours half life
Surface condition 70-75F 80% humidity = 6 hours half life
Surface condition 95F 80% humidity = 1 hour half life
(Article here also: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/sunlight-humidity-kill-coronavirus-fastest-scientists-200424065853466.html)
Another article: https://qz.com/1843347/if-covid-19-becomes-seasonal-humidity-could-help-explain-why/
“Dry air is a key factor that impairs a person’s ability to fight off respiratory viral infections,” says Akiko Iwasaki, an immunobiology professor at the Yale School of Medicine whose research group assembled the review.”
…
“Several studies support the idea that indoor humidity plays a role in seasonal disease transmission. When someone coughs or sneezes, they release tiny droplets into the air (if they’re sick, these droplets will contain virus). The bigger droplets typically fall before they get very far, but the tiniest droplets, called droplet nuclei, can go much farther. In humid conditions, these tiny droplets don’t evaporate as much, so they drop down more quickly than they would in dry conditions. Virus-containing droplets that travel farther are more likely to infect a new host.”
Also consider in summer, warmer air is more humid than in winter, where the air is cooler and drier. World wide, the seasonal flu peaks during autumn/winter.
The problem with some data analysis is that an increase from 1 to 2 looks terrible when converted to %s (ie 100% increase), where as an increase from 1000000 to 1100000, despite being a significantly larger absolute increase, is seen as a much smaller % increase, at 10%. Correlation is not causation, and there are far too many variables to reduce % increase explanations to hot vs cold climates IMO.
31
Right: new Regulations, effective immediately.
To all:
– mosquitoes, gnats, fleas, bed bugs, ticks, flies (includes all sandflies and near relatives), et al
1. Observe distancing, only one feeder per victim.
2. Ensure all blood siphons and feeding tubes are properly sanitized before insertion into each victim.
3. All feet are to be washed often.
Failure to meet these requirements is immediately punishable by death.
There, that should do the job and cover that `back door.’
80
M’lud,
I wish to lodge an objection on behalf of
All deprived mosquitoes.
We will fight this in the courts with utmost vigor.
On behalf of the SOMA – Save Our Mosquitoes Australia
🙂
38
Insectophobia has no place in a civilised World, though I might concede the point on arachnophiobia and ophidiophobia, so long as the latter also applies to the human variety.
31
New Zealand only has two-legged Ophidia and fortunately not a lot of them. (some lawyers, used car salesmen, politicians, etc). Greatly lacking in toxicity …
But what’s wrong with spiders?
They’re lucky: they come with two spare legs and don’t need a jack or hoist to make repairs, their females really really like their males so there’s no divorce, and with 8 eyes, they can have truly circular vision.
You humans can only do that with an absurd excess of intoxicant. No self-respecting arachnid would ever stoop so low …
00
Good morning Jo,
Great work, yet again.
When you say, “The Globalists will hate that success is measured one nation at a time, depends on strong borders and was achieved despite the EU and the UN. This virus is the anti-thesis of Open Borders and a pox on the biggest layer of useless government in the world. The WHO only had one job and they failed us.” This is of course 110% true.
(Sorry one of my old bosses said to me three million times, that I shouldn’t exaggerate!)
But what could just as critically be added here is …
This virus is an amazing “political leveller”! Or, to put it another way, doesn’t discriminate as to which side handles it best.
I must confess, I have been a right-voting person most of my life, but the few sentences of this story make me look at the N.Z. Prime Minister, Jacinda Adhern, in a whole new light.
Clearly both Morrison and Adhern have done a very good job for their respective countries, and provided they keep doing so, we should be very thankful at the time of the next election/s.
Kind Regards, Reformed Warmist of Logan.
1013
PS. Let’s not forget how Prime Minister Scott Morrison earned his “political stripes”!
By doing what many millions said couldn’t be done … & “Stopped the Boats” (& the deaths at sea).
Go the Sharks!
117
Chairman Morro did not stop anything. Why Boat when you can fly, the chairman just changed mode of transport.
This is a doc from the UN’s web site, Global compact for migration. Have a read of this clap trap. I don’t know if we signed up, but Turnbull was in power, so good chance. Not that it matters as its voluntary, you don’t have to sign up to instigate the plan.
https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/sites/default/files/180713_agreed_outcome_global_compact_for_migration.pdf
The below is a link to the flight centre for migrants, all flights are paid for by third parties. It is the International Organisation for Migration located in Canberra.
https://australia.iom.int/
53
Also it was Abbott who stopped the boats, Morrison has only held the Reigns for a year and a half, he could not stop a leak.
135
Actually it was PM John Howard and former def-min Peter Reith who stopped the refo boats, who were sinking themselves near cargo ships then hitching a ride to Australia on rescue ships. In Aug 2001 Howard refused permission for a Norwegian ship, MV “Tampa”, to land rescued refuges in Australia. Howard completely ended the human smuggling game and ended the chances for success for people from the other side of the planet who tried it on. They go years of detention instead.
Then Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard neglected the laws and our border enforcement, plus neglected the navy badly, and restarted the refugee trafficking again (what they intended to do all along), and this wasted tens of billions of dollars on illegal immigrants, adding to the inevitable Labor deficit surges, as they resettled these illegal immigrants within Australia.
Which of course predictably massively encouraged more refo boats, which shot up sharply and hundreds of deaths at sea occurred due to Rudd and Gillard and their hopeless govts.
Then Abbot and his minister ScoMo crushed the refo-curve to zero once again, and it’s not moved much since.
194
But, but but…
People have a right to move to
Any country they like..
Just ask Papa Frank in Rome !
And no one has the right to try & stop them !
Sarc !
Just as well we had Howard, Reith, Abbot & Morrison
They soon sorted out all that globalist free borders nonsense !
Thanks are due to all 4 of them !
76
Yes I know the events over the years. Since Abbot they have not restarted, crediting Abbot as was the comment crediting Chairman Morro as Howard was also credited.
13
Comrade Princess Rainbow Bubbles of Devastating Kindness has done nothing of the sort, namely, ” a very good job.”
Her hand waving nonsense, “I will save tens of thousands of lives,” drunk on the modelled kool aid from the Neil Ferguson-esque epidemiologists and modelers at the University of Otago Dept. of Social and Preventive Medicine, and drunk on absolute power in equal parts.
New Zealand was afforded a huge advantage by being late to join the pandemic wake, courtesy of its location, but more importantly, it has a very low population density and its few conurbations are well separated with sparse travel occurring between them. Australia is similar, and has the additional blessings of sunshine and warmth, while both countries were in autumn and not yet at the ‘flu season.
Employing the sound, established tenets of public health was always preferable, namely widespread continuous random testing, quarantining of the sick and the asymptomatic carriers, protect the vulnerable, employ social distancing and PPE, allow the healthy to work and maintain a functioning economy. Instead, the doyen of the Left and UN sycophant, Comrade Ardern, former President of the International Union of Socialist Youth, and current PM of an unrepresentative minority coalition government, has assumed total control of the New Zealand and operated on Leftist political principles of the precautionary principle and definitively NOT science. The consequence is a disemboweled economy. Please take a moment to read The Elimination ‘Strategy’ = a Bullet to the Stomach for NZ and Lock Down Will Cause Thousands of Additional Deaths in NZ
“The unintended consequences of even a short lock down will be thousands of additional deaths in New Zealand over the short, medium and long term. The data is already there. So why is Ardern drawing it out?”
313
NZ is about 980 short of the first thousand deaths. Watch the hyperbole LD.
Where are these additional deaths to come from?
(make a case!)
There was SARs — a corona virus from China — in 2002: 0 deaths
and the Swine Flu pandemic in 2009: 3,175 cases and 19 deaths.
This year there’s Sars-Corvir-2 (aka Covid-19) with 1492 cases and 21 deaths.
111
Morrison has shown enlightenment on two fronts that demonstrates his leadership over his politics.
He is working extremely well with the premiers of either colour. There is a leadership collegiate I have not seen before. Always enunciating the limits of the various authorities. He defended Daniel Andrews’ call on particular issues; sometimes in the face of the State opposition leader. He gave his view on schooling but stated it was the premiers’ decisions. The premiers follow his announcements with more detail relevant to their respective States.
To me, the most significant feature of his leadership was the speed and apparent ease of creating new money to provide a safety net. There are a few holes but really no one in Australia needs to be without food, shelter and energy. The LNP adherence to balanced budgets was simply brushed aside. That demonstrates that Australia did take some learnings from the GFC.
Australia is not quite there yet but could again prove to be the “lucky” country. In this case, it is through effort and application by everyone with a much smaller dose of natural advantage through being an island in the Southern Hemisphere – right place at the right time.
175
Morning R W,
There’s an interesting article in the SMH this morning, praising Greg Hunt, but also identifying three key decisions made early in the scare, under the heading ” ‘Three decisions and a two-point plan’: How Australia got on top of COVID-19 ”
…
Credit to Hunt, a quiet achiever
As the country moves from a national mobilisation to stop the virus to the next phase, Australia can take a moment to take note of its success.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/three-decisions-and-a-two-point-plan-how-australia-got-on-top-of-covid-19-20200508-p54rag.html?btis
…
Cheers
Dave B
94
That’s an interesting articel from the SMH.
ut it ignores that Hunt was slow to stop or quarantine arrivals from Iran, Italy, Spain, the UK and the USA.
When it was clear that arrivals from those countries were asymptomatic carriers.
The Newmarch Houser fiasco in Sydney was started by a returned Iranian carer who had mild symptoms but worked.
The Barossa Valley outbreak was started by Swiss & US tourists visiting Barossa valley wineries.
Other outbreaks started as a result of travellers from Italy, Spain, the UK and the USA.
I can remember heaving a sigh of relief when the borders were FINALLY closed in March.
But it was late – almost too late.
That SMH article glosses over these things.
1112
The most reliable commentator thoughout the CV19 episode that I take heed of is Jo Nova. Also TdeF with his vivid “deprive the virus of hosts” – such a simple yet insightful bit of knowledge. From what I saw of Murphy’s early comments, I doubt he envisaged a situation of wiping out the virus. I always felt Hunt was more positive. The SMH article points to a a quiet achiever.
I do not agree with Hunt that building capacity in things like PPE and ventilators was at all important. Further down the blog. I state what I believe are the priorities for controlling, read annihilate, the virus –
#1 Border controls
#2 Fast and effective testing
#3 Effort and efficiency of contact tracing.
Get these things in order and the rest become insignificant. Like the article states, Taiwan with its 440 cases and 6 deaths. Those figures in no way stress the health care capacity of the wealthiest per capita country on the planet with a population of 24M.
Australia probably only gets a pass mark on all three of the top priorities but overall a distinction. Taiwan probably close to 10 our 10 for all three and clearly warrants the high distinction. South Korea borders on a high distinction.
The places that are doing badly like UK and US fail on the #1 priority. Fail that and forget it. You are stuck with the virus waiting for Bill to get his vaccine to you.
154
The only thing Ardern has done well is have a very good PR campaign run for her. Her Government has been reactive from day one and they could have easily got things going quicker –this is not hindsight talking. The Leader of the Opposition got 50,000 signatures to a petition in less than 24 hrs which asked for the borders to be closed. It actually did not happen until several days later and then it was a “faux” closure. No really strict measures in place. Another Opposition MP pleaded for the PM to come back early from her holiday in Fiji ( in late Feb.) to manage the situation –he got absolutely roasted in the media.
We have had a case recently where a guy came back from the UK to see his dying father (only days to live). He went through the proper channels to get leave from quarantine to see him (the rules allow for this on compassionate grounds). He asked to be tested but that was refused because he wasn’t showing any symptoms. So we have people coming, going into quarantine and not being tested!!! How stupid is that when we know most cases are related to people who have travelled.
BTW. The guy tried 3 times to get through the bureaucratic channels but was refused each time so he went to Court. The Judge ruled in his favour without question. There have been 23 other cases like this (not all going to Court).
71
Testing is knowledge and knowledge is truth. As was once infamously opined,
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”
84
“Testing would have to be maintained to cope with the odd inevitable breach, along with tracking and tracing teams ready to go.
At the first hint of reinfection, the borders lock down around the region til it’s cleared.
We know what to do.”
>> Good luck with that when your leaders are infected with the insanity of building windmills to stop the weather as top priority.
Seems like perpetual random lockdowns are the future, because, as this is a SARS -cold/flu – but worse, and we still haven’t eliminated the common cold.
With the aid of the main-stream-media they will claim they saved the planet and soon guide the sheeple back to the hobogoblin of failed global warming.
In other news …
“Rarely is such a result seen in medicine”
“A quarter of French adults smoke.
Many people were surprised, therefore, when researchers reported late in April that only 5% of 482 covid-19 patients who came to the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris between February 28th and April 9th were daily smokers.
The ratios of smokers to non-smokers in earlier tallies at hospitals in America, China and elsewhere in France varied.
But all revealed habitual smokers to be significantly underrepresented among those requiring hospital treatment for the illness.”
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/05/02/smokers-seem-less-likely-than-non-smokers-to-fall-ill-with-covid-19?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/covid19smokersseemlesslikelythannonsmokerstofallillwithcovid19scienceandtechnology
>> Perhaps they were on to something …
More Doctors Smoke Camels Than Any Other Cigarette
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCMzjJjuxQI
112
Net zero carbon (sic) –
Like a covid19 lockdown, but permanent.
81
The early work of the US CDC highlighted that smokers did not appear disproportionately represented in the incidence of critical cases, in other words, smoking did not appear to be a precipitating factor in acute cases. As usual, in a highly dose dependent activity with an accompanying and highly variable topography, sweeping generalisations that suit the politically correct and those that live off policy-based evidence, are frequently made reflexively.
42
I live in a community of about 30,000 citizens that was designated a ‘Corona Virus Hotbed’ some weeks ago – we even had a mention on 2GB’s Hadley Show.
I talked to my work colleagues yesterday about our’hotbed’ and none of us know of anyone in our community with the virus.
220
Same everywhere, no one directly knows anyone or anyone who’s even been tested. But they all know someone who knows someone who heard someone.
116
Like
a good robotmost other people, I watch on the evening news when the State Minister for Health tells us that there was 16 million tests done the day before and no one came back positive.It all reminds me so much of the old days when Joh would say ….. Let’s go feed the chooks.
You know, those days that the ALP so railed against.
Bet there’s no social distancing in hair and makeup before all those politicians come out to front their pliable minions the inquiring media.
Tony.
154
Did you see the video of Palacechook getting her flu shot. UN-social distancing at it finest.
They did not even promote the fraud by taking the cap off the needle, they don’t even try and hide the fraud anymore, no one notices.
Three NRL players suspended for refusing the vaccine, not the Wuflu vaccine the bloody flu vaccine which is 30% effective, what is going on. They have never had compulsory flu shot before and what is their business model based on, the wind farm model “buy 3 MW and get 1” and think thats a winner.
This is not stupid at work. QLD Gov insertion into the play again plan.
131
MP
They redid the shot of her getting the jab. The original clearly shows the needle going in. It went too fast hence the reshoot. It was continuity error.
Never attribute to malice or conspiracy what you can explain by stupidity.
22
I watched them both in slomo and zoomed, the cap was on for the first take and the plunger was never depressed. no swab to sterilise the injection area?
I watched on TV, I will see if I can find a recording and post it.
01
you are wrong and I suspect you are asserting this since you are not one who can admit a mistake.
11
Just what are you saying/implying here? That no one ever caught COVID-19? That it’s a giant global hoax? That’s not reasonable skepticism.
But I’ll constructively presume you aren’t saying something like that, I’ll refute your remarks with numbers and an argument instead.
First, how is it even a surprise to you or anyone else that in a country of 26 million people, which had ~6,700 cases, which were distributed fairly evenly across the continent except in Sydney (~5 million people), that almost no one would personally know about people who were confirmed cases? Only 0.026% of Australians became active cases so why would you expect the people in this comment section to know one of those people personally?
And why is it surprising to you or anyone else that most people wouldn’t broadcast the fact over the internet? Do you remember the irrational prejudices and attacks and shunning of former Ebola patients in Africa? And the extreme prejudice against Wuhan residents in March and early April by Chinese people? And the prejudice against Africans today in China directed at people who are not even known cases!? Just suspected and prejudiced against, because they’re Africans.
I for one would not be telling anyone on my street or in my town that I was a recently recovered confirmed case of COVID-19 during the past month. I might actually want to live normally after the disease, and also I may be very tired of thinking and talking about it.
Plus in my town and State no one was told who had the disease locally, both the hospital and the State Health minister said this was to ensure people were not prejudiced against. So it is a pretty safe bet that people were advised to not tell anyone they had it.
Which means the pool of people who might tell someone about it, in Australia, is going to be much less than 0.026% of the whole population. So I hope you don’t plan to ask that sort of question in that sort of way again.
https://i.ibb.co/pPwHwW3/Scorched-Peanut-Bar.png
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As I stated I know of no one for either nor do others I know, you refute my facts and insert your own? I think you have this site mixed up with Myth Busters.
59
OK, explain to me how that’s relevant and what you’re trying to say there?
62
And while you’re at it, please show where anyone is saying this? I haven’t seen people saying it, please give some examples so we can judge if any of it’s true, or if it’s just another exaggeration without any substance tacked onto an assertion, which is itself unreasonable and more or less baseless.
62
Just to humour you
People I communicate with regularly all over Aus and the world, (everywhere) have neither the Wuflu nor been tested for same.
Those same people know of none, but there seems to be three points of separation. One was his kid at school had heard someone caught it.
Believe it or not, its a hot topic on the phone and mails. A lot ask me the same question.
I was at the emergency dept last Sat, I nor the dozen who walked in after me were tested, got asked two questions.
Maybe you assume to much
24
One of the unfortunate things that has happened
is that governments have stopped telling us who is infected.
Or where.
Supposedly for privacy reasons.
To preserve the privacy of the infected.
But a few days ago on Facebook I found out via an obscure SA Health site that Mt Barker
Has had 9 Corona Virus 19 infections.
Amazing – especially given that this town has ~17,000 people
And hardly anyone wears masks.
23
No entirely true.
I know a couple in the Netherlands that died from Covid-19. The wife died end of March and Peter died 7th April. I knew Peter from being a project manager for a core banking project in Sydney a decade or so ago.
[not sure if translating links will work, but..] https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=nl&u=https://www.rtvoost.nl/nieuws/328792/Deventer-raadslid-overleden-aan-corona&prev=search
I also know a few friends and colleagues in Sydney that have gone for the test – negative results fortunately. And a favourite cafe was closed down weeks ago because of a positive case in the business above.
30
I know 7 people who’ve had it including an italian family of 5 and two federal politicians. I also have been tested twice now due to circumstances.
I am also in a position to know two people working in separate labs doing tests.
30
My wife works in the medical industry. Neither she, nor anyone she works with know of anyone who has, or has had, the “virus”.
No one I know reports anyone they know as currently having or previously having the “virus”.
Because we are all locked down it is virtually impossible to know what is really happening.
Plenty of people on social media are reporting so called overrun hospitals as actually being virtually empty.
Media and statistics are easy to manipulate.
Look to the USA political situation if you are interested in understanding why the panic was started and is being pushed and pushed.
Science will provide no answers nor save anyone when politics is driving the agenda.
31
The zero covid approach relies on a vaccine being developed and tested which could take years.
The long term economic and social damage done by this approach is probably much greater than the Swedish “herd immunity” approach which has caused a minimum f disruption.
Most of Swedish deaths are in aged care facilities and lessons have been learned about how to stop contamination.
If we factor in the expected suicides because of the chaos caused by lockdowns, Sweden approach is far better.
214
An effective vaccine could take a long time, if ever. However I think elimination is still possible if testing improves; both in numbers and accuracy.
The other key is appropriate quarantine measures. Our Governments have concentrated on isolating the healthy. That has worked to reduce new infections to low levels. The next step, which is overdue here in Australia is to isolate the infected and the sick and get the healthy back to work. Our health departments have done a pretty bad job of that so far, but they may be relearning old lessons and hopefully their response in coming weeks will be much better.
100
Peter almost all the Aged Care home sin Australia have been locked down since Mid March.
No visitors at all : only staff and medical people.
Not government ‘mandated’ but done by the Aged care sector as part of their legal “duty of care to residents & staff”
It has been part of the success of smashing the curve.
Another way that Australia stands out in contrast to the UK ! ( And maybe Canada ? )
78
It will take 5 to 8 years for Sweden to develop their herd immunity at the current rate of infection, which is near the limit of their ability to treat cases. They have substantial restrictions on association and some bars have been closed down. Another 135 deaths yesterday now at 3175 total. Death rate per population now higher than the Netherlands and rising steadily up the wrong end of the rankings. If you end up in hospital in Sweden, there is a 40% chance you will not come out. Those that do come out will likely have permanent damage.
Over that period there should be a notable drop in life expectancy in Sweden, currently 82.3yrs. It will be like the USA where life expectancy has been reducing for the last 5 years; now 78.5years.
84
Death rate has peaked and now declining, overall Sweden tracks mid range with Euro generally inc lockdown States. Tal about Sweden seems to be more about dogmatic views and apples and oranges comparisons than anything. Willis’s summary on wuwt is a bit more objective as is euromomo.
92
Willis is an ideological COVID denier.
Check the facts on Sweden
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
314 deaths per million for Sweden
Compared to :
90 per million for Denmark,
$0 per million for Norway
47 Per Million for Finland
Willis at WUWT should stick to his Global warming knitting.
At least he knows something about that.
But bugger all about this infectious disease.
818
Bill I have to say you are good at calling the final score at the start of the game. As to which game plan will work best and be the winner only time will tell. Perhaps you should score by using “life years lost” and include all the deaths due to the treatment such as suicides. But I guess it is hard to see the big picture while hiding under your bed in fear.
183
Bright Red, the web site http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Has daily updates.
Why don’t you just look at them occasionally ?
Instead of your beloved Willis at WUWT.
True they are not ‘Final Scores”..
But I doubt any bookmaker would be backing Sweden against it Scandinavian neighbours
Denmark, Norway & Finland.
An almost certain money loser. !
Cheers !
710
I don’t live in Sweden and I assume you don’t either. So the only data relevant to those of us in OZ is our own. https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/05/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_6.pdf
I assume you have looked at and and are up to date with the deaths by age chart and the infections by age chart.
There are many backing Swedens approach you just have to look further than your beloved ABC and some blogs. Even if Sweden comes out at about the same overall long term death rate from CV19 as others they are still big winners as they still have an economy and less suicides from the so called cure. Score on “life years lost” and I will put my money down on them.
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Facts come first !
Sweden : 10.5 million people and 3175 dead !
Australia : 24 million and 97 dead !
Source : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
You are defending a policy and people who are dealing out death
To the aged, the sick & the infirm.
That is reprehensible !
Where is your morality and compassion. ?
Both put out the window ?
513
BrightRed, the data overseas very much matters to us. It shows what could’ve happened.
99
Jo, how does it show what could have happened in Australia. I believe you have stated that there are many differences that can affect outcomes like Vitamin D, public transport usage, population densities, age distribution and where they live like grandparents at home, local customs like cheek kissing as a greeting the list goes on. As far as I know there is no other country identical to Australia.
53
Nature has regrettably dealt the aged and sick a cruel blow with CV19 but nature in general is cruel in unimaginable ways to people of all ages. By putting the young under house arrest have you considered what you are doing to their future? As they have nothing to fear from CV19 anymore than dozens of other things. It think is also a selfish attitude to say that just because an old retired (no need to earn a living) person should self isolate for their own benefit that everyone else should be forced into house arrest as well even if that means no job and no income.
64
[Duplicate]
21
No it’s not. Deaths on Friday 8 May 175. Typical is 80 per day and will go on like that for the next few years. Sweden gets about 600 cases per day and 40% do not make it out of hospital. So they already have a lot more people waiting for the inevitable in their hospital wards. My estimate is already 6k in the pipeline. There is no reason for the number of cases to reduce yet. At most there are only 400k total immune. About 1/20th of the 8000k they need to get reasonable herd immunity.
Shutting the 5 major offending bars simply means they have increased the time to reach their herd immunity. As well as reducing the demand on medical services.
106
“Sweden gets about 600 cases per day”.
Plus ?? Some numbers need a little scepticism.
31
Rick,
You seem to assume that it is inevitable that a herd immunity can be reached. My impression is that that is not assured. In fact, if the example of the flu applies, it is highly unlikely.
I’m hoping for a wide uptake of the vitamin D and/or hcq-zinc path as a prophylactic works.
Cheers
Dave B
121
Catching flu when young does give some immunity against other strains for life.
‘Lifelong protection against severe influenza’
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6313/722.full
61
But the CCP’s COVID 19 is not flu …
56
:-O
01
Not just Sweden.
Reports from the world over are showing big %s – often over 50% of cases – are from long-term care nursing home facilities.
It’s a shame the denigrating commenters here of Sweden’s policy do not have a good understanding of data accumulation. It’s been explained a number of times but apparently their omniscience either missed the explanation or chose to ignore it as it did not agree with their equally hypocritical ideological position.
114
We know and understand the data Aaron
But we do not choose a strategy which kills by the thousand
The aged, the infirm, the sick.
That such is what you want to happen
Says a lot about YOU.
Your ‘compassion’ & ‘morality’
Or rather the Lack of it.
Good luck Swedish people !
Go get the smart bastards inflicting
Miserable painful death on
So many of your your old, sick & inform !
216
Given you keep citing worldometers data for Sweden, ignoring their actual data, I’d say not only do you not understand, but do not understand that you do not understand.
174
“Delingpole: Ferguson’s Dodgy Model Has Engendered a World-Historical Blunder”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/08/our-response-to-this-pandemic-is-a-world-historical-blunder/https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/05/08/our-response-to-this-pandemic-is-a-world-historical-blunder/
81
Deplorable Dan doesn’t want to lift restrictions in Victoria – such power! Now there is a second wave in Victoria, thanks to the ruby princess meat works, where one case has turned into 71, out of a total number of active cases of 111 – the total was down to just 50 on April 29 from 119 on April 21. The good news in Victoria – in 40 of 70 local council regions there are now zero active cases.
150
Well its going to get political….
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/cedar-meats-boss-was-long-time-alp-member-20200507-p54qte.html
“The owner of the western suburbs abattoir at the centre of Victoria’s biggest coronavirus cluster was a member of the Victorian Labor Party for more than two decades, The Age has confirmed.
“Cedar Meats owner Tony Kairouz was a member of the party from 1993 until 2017, when his membership lapsed. He had been a member of Labor’s large Heidelberg branch. Cedar Meats donated $15,000 to the Victorian Labor Party in 2014.
140
Correct and to add a large percentage of workers are Lebanese dual citizens that travel overseas and are in contact with others that do also, the Halal slaughter practices can be at odds with our own health standards too and the business has flown the Lebanese flag with the Australian one out front.
The secrecy of reporting anything to the public will be courtesy of the fifth column media and Andrews & Co not wanting to shine a spotlight on another culture here that doesn’t give a rats a#$ about Australia except to fleece its wealth and turn it into a s#@tho!e like the one they came from.
140
[ Duplicate ]
30
Duplicate…please delete
20
Robber, not a second wave
Just more of the first wave which never stopped or contact traced..
Imported to Brooklyn by a returned traveller probably from Iran
Who was not quarantined in early March.
A Vic Health huge stuff up.
Why ? Probably because the owners had mates in the government.
611
The burning question was why this was kept quiet for a month?
Even when the abattoir infection was revealed, the name of the Cedar Meats company was omitted. Why?
What this meant was that the people who worked in the company had no idea, nor their friends, family, shopkeepers, hospitals. The 60 year old nurse who tended the worker who lost a finger now has the disease. She treated him three times without any protective gear. But the government knew and abattoirs are an essential but dangerous business with 100x the spread of other businesses. Still no one was tested. Why?
It this silence was a result of a favor called in by the Labor donating owner to protect his business, people will die. Why was it kept quiet? It’s not just a scandal, it’s criminal.
153
The official story was that the worker assured them he had not been at work when he was infected. Good enough for me. Obviously he had no friends at work either! So why bother testing his workmates? It wasn’t an order to keep it quiet, was it?
82
Consider also that if not for the casual check for cold symptoms at the hospital, we would still have been unaware and by now it would be the biggest outbreak in the country. Why was it kept secret, even from his coworkers who might have had themselves tested?
102
And where did the original infected person get it? A bus stop? Anyone would have checked his workplace? And was he told to tell no one because clearly, he told no one.
112
The US should probably be represented by 50 curves.
Ten states have populations over 10,000,000 souls, documented.
The three for four with extensive international travel account for most of the curve above;
many others are doing better, even without formal internal borers.
150
Richard I think Australia’s experience is similar , if there are any covid cases in inland Australian communities away from the coast the numbers would be small and the further you go inland into remote communities it would be zero .
100
There was 1 case with a temporary worker at a meat processing plant in Melbourne identified on 3 April. Apparently he did not go back to work once he knew he had CV19 and there was no checking where he had been working. That single case has grown to 71 cases in just over a month. That is even with as much distancing as practical in the plant.
If people are free to travel and the virus is present in the broader community then eventually most will be infected unless there is huge effort put into contact tracing and effective quarantining of those contageous.
Point is that, without border controls, it will spread throughout the country. As an example, Ohio is now stuck around 500 cases per day resulting in about 40 deaths per day. There is no end in sight yet. Washington is stuck around 300 cases per day with a dozen deaths per day. Texas is at 1000 cases per day and still rising with deaths above 30 per day and increasing.
Once freedom of movement is eased across the country, the spread will rise and death rate will increase. US is much closer to what is planned in Sweden than what has occurred in countries that have controlled the spread to the point of eliminating the virus within their borders.
You may not realise this, but Australian States had strict border controls and some States had internal border restrictions as well.
Those who promote herd immunity are comforted by the fact that it only kills old men or those people who are already unhealthy. How many international leaders qualify in that demographic. How many farmers, ranchers, power supply workers, water supply workers, sewage treatment workers, truck drivers and other essential workers fall into that demographic.
I do not see much change likely in the USA until there is a vaccine; 25k daily infections; 1500 to 2000 daily deaths. However I have been wrong before.
91
Rick, Further news about the Cedar Meats Plant outbreak : All the casuals on the killing & packing line are employed by a Labour Hire company, not directly by Cedar Meats.
So this added extra complexity to the communication chain from the Vic Health Authorities to the meat plant management. And room for failure.
88
See my comments at #9.3. This is criminal.
52
Richard, and the US lack of state borders is the crime. The states with few cases, like here, could have got rid of it fast and got back to work.
Cuomo of NY and others stopped Trump when he wanted to isolate the three biggies and that meant the rural and regional states of the US were held to ransom for weeks longer than they needed to be.
154
Let’s not forget NYC were encouraged to go out and party, nursing homes take in sick from hospitals and were told they were not allowed to test for / refuse COVID-19 cases.
The health commissioner told people to go and celebrate Chinese New Year.
All TDS-related messages to stick to the Man.
90
Jo and friends of reality:
“Um, anything that would go against World Health Organization” -Wojcicki, CEO of youtube
https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/05/um-anything-that-would-go-against-world.html
10
Very, very rarely am I ever tempted to dance on the misfortune of others. Very occasionally therefore, instances do arise when one is overwhelmed by twitching feet.
Neil Ferguson, doyen of the Left, archduke over at The Con and leader of the UK’s Imperial College epidemiological modelling team that advised the UK government that they should anticipate 500,000 deaths and revised that down to 20,000 (now sitting at 31,000), staunch advocate for ‘lock down’ precautionary principle politics as opposed to established public health science, was caught in flagrante delicto with his married Commie activist strumpet (well, London appartments and ‘lock down’ do have certain advantages for some it seems) ignoring there own severe lock down edicts for a regular romp in the sheets.
He has now resigned, and good riddance. People always wondered how he managed to hold onto his job after the appalling UK foot and mouth debacle: “Slaughtered on Suspicion” – Foot and Mouth 2001 & role of Prof. Neil Ferguson
The Left are such hypocrites. Always were, always will be. The trouble is they have no insight, and that is a key sign of sociopathy, which may explain why the Left should come with a severe government health warning. For it has murdered 100 million in the 20th Century, and still counting, thanks to the CCP and the current novel virus.
302
“You who are without sin
May throw the first stone”
Sex mate, it makes so many of us do utterly crazy things.
And it’s in the genes..
Silly dope could not help himself.
I doubt you could either in your day.
🙂
616
He did not have to help himself. She dropped into his place. Home delivery, not take away.
112
🙂
45
Definitely not Contactless …
30
BOZ, I agree with your sentiments, though not quite in the way you express them.
As for ‘in your day’ I won’t dignify that with an answer. Gentlemen don’t tell.
And the ‘pulling power’ is still extant where should be. Jibes about old crones will not be tolerated, most of all, for them.
22
Latus, please — the modeling for 500,000 deaths was always “assuming no quarantine”. It was never revised down — there were always different scenarios. And I might add, the high deaths are not modeled so much as just arithmetic assuming humans did not change behaviour and the virus spread without any quarantines.
Ferguson’s grand stupid failure (apart from his personal inexcusable hypocrisy) was in not telling Boris to stop the flights in early Feb when it was obvious this was going to be awful.
He and others were still using their 1918 flu plan 100 years out of date.
107
The Models are meaningless and just used for marketing ideas and propaganda
122
Jo, the points you make are fair, but they are no where near what emerged in the MSM, probably in government briefs and certainly not public perception.
Modellers like the worse case scenario. After all, there’s only one fate worse than death, being proved wrong on the lite side. Politicians need plausible deniability, so they emotionally double down on their own policy based ‘evidence’ that they funded the epidemiologist risk mongers to produce.
The assumptions that people would not change behaviour were quickly rendered wrong. Most adopted self-distancing and enhanced hygiene readily.
The trouble is that many governments, particularly the minority Leftwing government in NZ, categorically refused to nuance their responses in the light of emergent data and knowledge from around the World. And they implemented NO testing, except on the truly obvious.
There appears another obvious thing to point out. There is NO resilience or adaptability in the fragile, brittle neo-Marxist ideology, that embraces political correctness, identity politics and cultural Marxism and pervades all the institutions, universities and corridors of power. Their rigidity was on full display as was their fragility.
Little wonder they adore daconian ‘lock downs’. Little wonder they are the first to turn to illegal random police check points and support the thuggery of their ethnonationalistic elite. It is despicable.
The itching trigger finger is not so far away. Why do you think the Left have such a murderous tally to their name?
100 million and still counting, now.
72
Why is Coronavirus New Cases and Deaths Less on the Weekends?
I was alerted to this phenomenon by an article on WUWT by Willis Eschenbach.
The weekend phenomenon shows up in a lot of the country graphs shown in the headline post, but is most extreme for Sweden, which is not one of the countries featured.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Scroll down and look at the Daily New Cases and the Daily New Deaths entries.
New cases may be distorted by work practices; ie no testing on weekends, but deaths should be recorded on the day they occur.
Any suggestions?
60
I think you have it PeterC , most reporting is done on the Monday .
50
I mentioned this a few weeks back – partying.
The average time from infection to hospitalisation is 12 days. So there is a peak on Thursday or Friday a fortnight after the weekend partying. Some bars wren closed down 2 weeks back because they were allowing too many inside. That has made a slight reduction in the number of cases presented. Will push out herd immunity to 2028 rather than 2025.
On the other hand it may be just the way the reporting system works.
The weekly cycle is also present in the US data but you would need to look at different locations and their respective rules to determine if it is related to partying. I do know that alcohol consumed in confined spaces is a good means of suppling hosts for easily spread viruses, probably worse than aircraft.
40
Peter C if you are interested in what Sweden are actually doing (something the anti-Swedish model commenters are not), it is clearly explained on this local Swedish website here:
https://www.thelocal.se/20200414/understanding-swedens-figures-on-the-coronavirus
In specific answer to your question,
103
So it should be higher on a Monday according to this. That is not the case. It is higher on Thursday and Fridays.
40
Correct, Wednesday is often a sharp catch-up spike too.
If you look closely at the global graphs on the main worldometer page you can see that the global total cases graph is almost a straight line rise, but the deaths graph is starting to curve over and shallow slightly (it’s been occurring for a couple of weeks now).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This is due to deaths being increasingly under-reported. If anything the deaths graph should be slightly steeper than the cases graph, because deaths percent rises as total cases rises.
Three possibilities:
(1) People are surviving longer before they die — very unlikely
(2) COVID-19 hospital deaths are not being reported as COVID-19 deaths — possible given sentiment
(3) Increasing numbers of deaths are occurring outside of the hospitals, and deaths outside of medical facilities are not being recorded as COVID-19 deaths — very likely
This trend has been going on for over two weeks now. Jo’s expose on excess-deaths shows it’s most likely #3 doing this, i.e. the excess-deaths will be rising with time.
See this curves graph to more clearly see this trend change within the global dataset:
https://i.ibb.co/26Ms81m/Plot-of-curve-multiplication-factors-8th-May-2020.png
So deaths are being increasingly under-reported as active cases rise.
44
I was looking for the chart for UK there, cf Americas. (And out of curiosity, can anyone find it split out to England, Wales, Scotland and shown beside Ireland and France – connected by the tunnel)
40
Listening to interview with Dr. Judy Mikovits, she mentioned the virus had managed to jump from animals to humans in a decade of “assisted” research, whereas in the wild it would take something like 700 years naturally.
Not being a microbiologist, I didnt follow the whole science 100% , but that bit stood out. She apparently had worked in Fort Detreict. She also mentioned that ebola in the wild cant infect humans. Hmmm…
90
Japan is not crushing the curve. It is hidibg the curve. It is doing so little testing. Prime Minister Abe said if we did more testing the hospitals would be overwhelmed. Data with reference to how i t was collected is meaningless.
52
It would be good to get more information on this. Links?
64
dividing between the heavily weaponized countries with their nukes, missiles, advanced finance games and synthetic viruses and synthetic biology–in contrast to those countries more into precaution.
check it out, be careful what doorway you decide to enter!
https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/05/puzzle-pieces-of-sars-cov-2.html
21
Microchipping children to make sure they do social distancing?
Kids wont do social naturally, which they woukd know,so….this appears to be a sick and dark agenda at work.
Youve got to be kidding…..
https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/benjamin-netanyahu-suggests-to-microchip-kids-slammed-by-experts-627381
“Cyber experts slammed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his proposal to “microchip” children who return to schools and kindergartens as the coronavirus lockdown is lifted, Ynet reported on Friday.
“While speaking at a press conference on Monday, Netanyahu suggested the Health Ministry use new technology to help Israel adjust to its new routine as the state is lifting the coronavirus lockdown. “That is, technology that has not been used before and is allowed under the legislation we shall enact,” he clarified.
“”I spoke with our heads of technology in order to find measures Israel is good at, such as sensors. For instance, every person, every kid – I want it on kids first – would have a sensor that would sound an alarm when you get too close, like the ones on cars,” the prime minister said.
121
Im starting to see what appears to be a pattern anongst globalists – microchipping and subsequent population tracking…..
121
Just use those electric dog collars that buzz and then shock when they get too close. Hope Dan doesnt know about those….
131
Australian (Darwin) appears to be embracing high def CCTV for facial recognition that will ultimately feed into one’s social credit score.
Good luck with that. Transponder kV emitting Dog collars would seem like over reach.
The Left are particularly good at that.
I am waiting for it to become law that one will be required to have a smart phone, or it will be provided.
Like state funded and mandated Dog Collars, adjustment of any settings is not permitted.
32
Yeah although alfoil wrapped around a smart phone blocks all signals and tracking…
30
The prospect of a new captive market certainly has brought out the entrepreneurial spirit in Bibi cock-a-hoop that covid19 has granted him government again.
21
Jo – As always, everything you say is correct, but – again as always – different people can draw different conclusions from the same facts. With the Wuhan virus, unfortunately the statistics are so bad and there are so many unknowns that many different opinions are reasonable.
I truly hope that your view is correct and that Aus and NZ and some others are truly in the clear, or about to be. But i’m not convinced. As I’ll explain ..
.. but first I woould like to say that I’m not crticising Scott Morrison or Jacinda Aderrn or Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro for that matter. I do believe that every national leader has done the very best they can in verey difficult circumstances, particularly as the “experts” like Neil Ferguson and their overblown and incompetent models have destroyed any possibility of a common sense approach in the media.
The graphs that you produce in your article, Jo, present an interesting story. It would have been better IMHO to show stats per head of population, in which the death numbers (highly unreliable unfortunately) paint a different picture: Spain 562, Italy 500, UK 461, France 402, Sweden 314, USA 237, Brazil (early days) 47. All per million population.
But that’s nothing like the whole story. Like Bastiat’s window, we are looking only at the deaths you see. We are not looking at the deaths you don’t see, and these are highest in the countries that do most damage to their economies. Aus and NZ are wonderful if you look at the deaths we see, but how wonderful are we really? Will we have to go through all the lockdown pain all over again after we have opened up again and a new virus case appears, while countries that protected their economy more move ahead on a more even keel? I don’t claim to know the answer to the question – it really is just a question – but I do think it’s a question that has to be asked.
I do think we could have targetted our approach at the vulnerable from the start instead of a “one size fits all” approach, and the damage to the economy would have been minimal because economic activity is greater among the less vulnerable. I also think we could have kept our schools open by concentrating our attention on the needs of teachers (the vulnerable ones in schools). But I don’t claim that my opinion is worth more than anyone else’s, just one opinion in the mix. The bottom line is that I want the Aus government’s strategy to work. So I’ve signed up to the app, and I would encourage everyone else to do the same. And to take vitamin D3 (possible upside, no downside).
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One notable curve missing from what Jo posted above is Taiwan:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan/
First case 16 Feb. So one of the first countries outside China to record a case. They now have 440 cases and 6 deaths. Same population as Australia. Capital city greater population density than London. An island country located in the Northern Hemisphere, normally high tourist trade with both China and Japan. They have had little economic impact from CV19.
Australia now has most of the tools and most of the discipline of Taiwan to control the virus spread. The starting point for most locations in Australia is way better than the starting point for Taiwan. There may be outbreaks but there will be a huge effort put into contact tracing and sourcing EVERY outbreak. Interpersonal space will be appreciated more. There will not be large crowds at sporting venues for a long time. Numbers in pubs and clubs will be controlled.
An observation I made yesterday when collecting wood from the back yard of my son’s place. It was a nice day and my son let his almost 3yo out in the yard with me. My son asked the toddler to show his grandad how far 1.5m was. He got it as close as anyone would gauge without a tape. The little fellow at no time came closer than that distance to me. So young people learn fast. This will be an experience none will forget. When they are aged they will tell their grandkids about 2020 and the WuFlu or COVID19.
I will need a new phone before I download the app. I have supported the Australian and Victorian governments throughout the period of lockdown as I believe these governments have supported their populations, including me. I want to continue that support. My middle son is rostered to move into the Austin hospital COVID ward mid June and I am hoping he is doing very little throughout his period there.
131
A most likely pointless exercise, given there is little evidence children transmit COVID-19 to adults.
A report from NSW: https://www.nsw.gov.au/news/report-covid-19-schools-and-experience-nsw
83
How many of the kids had the disease at the start of the study
They cannot pass on to others diseases that they do not have.
Australia stopped the import of this disease when the borders were closed.
Before there were any major clusters of community transmission.
Better go find some evidence for your hypothesis from
Wuhan in China
Or South Korea,
Or Iran,
Or Italy,
Or Spain
Or France
Or the UK
Or the USA
Or even from Sweden.
Does this evidence exist ?
310
Gosh Bill, responding without actually checking the facts first.
How unusual.
I realise you won’t be able to read this as it goes against your pre-determined, closed minded ideological position, but in case anyone else is capable of receiving new input, here’s the summary of the NSW study:
131
Are some actual facts !
Thanks for that.
Good.
I note :”No teacher or staff member contracted COVID-19 from any of the initial school cases”
Ummmm ?
1 What about parents ? Not mentioned or discussed.
I wonder what the parents think ?
2: I doubt this research is correct.
It does not accord with my experience.
I was for some years secondary teacher.
Any infectious disease going went through all the the students,
The staff and of course went home to parents.
Of course there might be some ‘special’ factor which limits
The spread of this highly infectious disease in NSW schools.
(The comparatively young age of most teachers nowadays for example ? )
But more likely it was just spread asymptomatically.
210
Mike,
The death stats are not as useful because they are delayed and play out over weeks. They also depend on too many other factors, like the demographics, health, vitamin D levels, and co morbidities.
The only things that counts as far as viral transmission goes are the new daily cases — which only lags 1 – 2 weeks behind isolation measures, and is only affected by the amount of testing.
In Bastiats window, most people ignore the “deaths that couldv’e happened” and count only those that did, which missed all the benefits of the lockdowns.
And as far as I know there is no data at all yet to assess the health costs of the lockdown. It is certainly a question worth asking, but I am wearly of the declarations (not by you) that viral scaremongers are causing an “armageddon” and a “catastrophe” of vast deaths modeled by some junk economic or psych forecast, based on no information.
Bastiat’s window is very real, but in this case, it supports the lockdown more than the “let the virus run free” model.
I see almost no recognition from those frustrated by the lockdown that the virus was going to do dramatic harm to the economy without a lockdown. It works through fear, even if the government ordered parents to send kids to school, in WA 80% kept them home. WAllets were closing before the lockdown started.
96
Unfortunately the new case statistics are compromised as well. I heard today that the funding received by hospitals goes up if a patient has CCP virus in the US, even more if they need a ventilator. As an economist I can accurately predict the outcome of such financial incentives. I would say the stats out of the US hospital system are exaggerated, significantly.
71
Mike Jonas
You win the internet today. That is a well thought out reasoned response and the best comment I have read here since this Virus hit our shores.
Thanks for restoring my faith in our species.
62
Another video worth watching, imho . . . . .
https://www.corbettreport.com/gatesvaccine/
62
If the world follows Taiwan and a few of the other national success stories then Bill’s plan is screwed!
Seasonal flu could be condemned to history. Now that will impact significantly on the health care industry.
70
Thanks, watched a few on Old Gates, that one is well put together.
Do you have part two?
21
This could be thought of as a part 1 . . . . and a could be thought of as part 3 is coming . . . .
https://www.corbettreport.com/how-bill-gates-monopolized-global-health/
42
Try again! The gatesvaccine could be thought of as part 2 and how-bill-gates-monopolized-global-health could be thought of as being part 1. Part three coming next week.
Proofread it this time . . . .
52
Another curve worth watching is the number of flu cases.
South Australia: There have been 1,466 cases of influenza notified year-to-date, compared with 8,781 cases reported for the same period last year.
Victoria: The number of notified cases of laboratory confirmed influenza is 0.6 times the number notified by the same time in 2019.
Isolation works in reducing the spread of infectious diseases.
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Apparently not supported by the peer reviewed literature that Anders Tegnell reads.
60
He has a theory. And many will die to prove him wrong. Only in Sweden.
The question is how long the people of Sweden will put up with his experiment supporting his religious belief in herd immunity? According to the Swedish Ambassador to the US, there are only two weeks to go to herd immunity. In fact the only reason that deaths are as low as a mere 3,000 today is that most Swedes disagree with him.
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There were two possibilities. We could get rid of this invader or we couldn’t. Now the myth of vast unsymptomatic infections is dismissed, we are close to shutting out the virus. Without a vaccine. And we have proven no one has to live with this thing!
However it is really annoying how so many professional commentators care nothing for lives. We are ‘timid’ or ‘cowards’ or not being realistic. If 1,000 people died tomorrow in a train crash, that would be a great tragedy for Australia and we would mourn for a generation. Many countries have been losing that many every day because they went with que sera, sera and herd immunity. In fact we have been so successful, deaths are negligible compared with falling off ladders. So now we are cowards?
Of course political commentators see this as the death of conservatives, Morrison and Trump with ‘unemployment’ figures. Economic commentators go with the deaths being reasonable if you cost them out as necessary. And the Swedes are still experimenting with their people, trying justify a theory and dividing by millions to pretend that 3,000 dead people so far is a quite acceptable cost, per head. Unless you are one of the people.
So we are not timid. We are not cowards. We took the hard road. And we are the envy of the world. But it seems we have to open the schools, coffee shops, golf courses and beaches or society will fall apart. Tomorrow. Because it hasn’t fallen apart, has it? These are the cowards, lacking the courage to do what has to be done to save thousands of lives. They would have surrendered to Adolph, because it was cheaper and simpler to do so and Adolph was a socialist.
You would think we had been locked down for six years not six weeks, the way they carry on. The temporarily out of work are not the great unemployed. The jobs will be back in a day. Those golf games will be lost forever but so what? And what about the football? Oh, the humanity! There doesn’t seem to be much in the press.
98
And why aren’t people seeing the opportunities? Bringing back manufacturing. Dropping electricity prices by removing the RET. Holidaying in Australia and New Zealand instead of sending 250,000 people a week overseas, to spend their savings overseas? What about a houseboat on the Murray or Lake Eildon or a motor launch on the Hawkesbury or a walk in the Daintree Rainforest or to see the horizontal falls. Skiing in New Zealand anyone? Or mid winter break in Cairns or Broome? And it will be great to see those airfares drop in Australia. After all, there are so many aircraft doing absolutely nothing.
224
Why do you beleive non of that is being thought about or happening? None of it is snap of the fingers stuff or even possible atm.
51
“Dropping electricity prices by removing the RET.”
Ain’t gonna happen, TdeF, what with Morrison still donating $300M to a hydrogen boondoggle only on May 4
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/04/government-offers-300m-hydrogen-investment-clean-energy-finance-corperation
91
I respect Morrison. Turnbull stalled Dutton to get the job to Morrison and whether working for Abbott on boat people or for Turnbull, Morrison was a hard working administrator. He half believes in global warming, half believe in herd immunity and tries to steer a path between opposing views. Not unlike Boris Johnson.
However the boat people stopped. The Wuhan Virus has been stopped and a lot of the credit goes to Morrison, whether he believed he could or not. He is a straightforward and honest and ethical administrator doing his best. And in the days of atheistic leaders, an outspoken Christian, something which is offensive to many on the left.
The hydrogen thing seems reasonable and popular, even though many know it is rubbish. Especially when solar and wind is suddenly rubbish. Contrast that with the $444 million given by Malcolm Turnbull without any logic or even an application and to his wife’s friends to ‘save’ the Great Barrier reef. And the $80Bn submarines which are worse than what we already have, the world’s slowest and silliest submarines. He has not stopped Snowy II either, another $12Bn of sheer waste.
I think Turnbull is really angry with Morrison because Morrisson won the unwinnable election and is doing a good job without being a “me too” Green politician.
The politician with a hard conviction about stopping the virus dead though is Daniel Andrews.
It’s too bad the Cedar Meats disaster was caused by someone trying to save his business and government people obviously keeping it quiet, potentially at the cost of lives. That scandal may yet pull Andrews down if it is turns out it was a phone favor to a Labor donor.
113
I think Morrison is a very good Christian and that’s just not on if you are a friend of the ABC.
70
Sceptical Christians are allowed by the ABC
Just not the real ones.
🙂
57
Sweden now has 3,175 dead people attributed to CV19. I expect the toll will continue at about 80 per day for about 5 years and taper for the next 3. The action they have taken to slow the spread just means it takes longer to achieve their herd immunity. Within a couple of years they should have enough immunity to move more freely but any contact with old people will be through a glass screen.
Success in this battle is a function of border control and the effort and efficiency of contact tracing. Quality of health care is inconsequential to the outcome if the priority is right.
#1 Tightly controlled borders
#2 Ease and speed of testing
#3 Effort and efficiency in contact tracing
Development of vaccine so far down the track it is irrelevant. Quality and effectiveness of medical PPE only an issue if your priorities are confused.
64
Except they went under 80 deaths/day 2 weeks ago, and have tapered to around 50/day already.
73
You stating it does not make it fact!
They reported 135 deaths on Friday 8 March after 99 deaths reported on Thursday 7 March. Their death rate is not reducing.
The number of cases dropped after they closed 5 badly offending bars but that reduction is yet to work through the hospital system. It just extends the time to get their much sought herd immunity from 5 years out to 8 years.
They will change course soon and do what every other sensible country has done:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11565768/swedens-anti-lockdown-coronavirus-chief/
They already have at least 6k toll in the making. 40% of resolved cases in Sweden are deaths.
73
For anyone interested in what’s actually happening in Sweden as reported by local news, I can highly recommend https://www.thelocal.se/ It’s in English and has articles sans paywall as well as the membership restricted ones.
Specifically pertaining to the egregiously hyperbolic claim made here, I’d like to quote the deputy crisis manager at the National Board for Health and Welfare in an article updated May 8th, to wit
His royal rightness does not provide any evidence for his “40% of resolved cases ended in death”, but you can read the rest of the article I am quoting here: https://www.thelocal.se/20200310/timeline-how-the-coronavirus-has-developed-in-sweden
Within this article, you can read another refutation of a claim made by RickWill (http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/many-countries-tracking-to-zero-coronavirus-the-world-could-divide-into-the-infected-or-the-free/#comment-2325798), who wrote,
In the article linked, they quite clearly state (under the April 30th update, so 9 days before RickWill’s comment)
You can believe RickWill and his hyperbole, or you can go to the source and read about what’s actually happening in Sweden.
42
You lie Aaron.
“642 new cases and 135 new deaths in Sweden” .
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
111
I am simply telling you what the official Swedish figures say.
You stating this does not make it a fact.
As I said – you do not understand data accumulation, Bill. I do not lie, no. I am stating official Swedish figures.
133
You have not stated any figures just assertions about the rate reducing – fact free rubbish.
Thursday this week 99 cases. Friday this week 135 cases. That is not reducing. The daily death toll averaged 76 in April. Last two days are well above the average.
84
Aaron, from your reference news site thelocal.se
April 29: More than 20,000 people have now tested positive for the coronavirus in Sweden, and 2,462 people have passed away. A total of 549 people are currently in intensive care, and an additional 1,884 people in other hospital units.
May 8: There have been 25,265 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, 3,175 people have been confirmed as having died. For the first time since more than a month, the number of patients in intensive care has fallen below 500.
From Worldometer for Sweden: April 29: 20,302 cases, 2.462 deaths; May 8: 25,265 cases, 3,175 deaths.
So identical data, same trend line, no sign of any flattening of the curve in terms of number of new cases.
40
Given that worldometer list the official Swedish numbers from experience.arcgis website as their source, it is expected that the total deaths would be identical. They are literally copying the data.
If you are going for herd immunity (Sweden’s stated position since the beginning), “flattening the curve” is a goal that is achieved once immunity kicks in.
Their entire strategy was to manage the new cases so they stayed at a level that their medical system could handle. Something they have already tested when they had ~7000 respiratory illness-related deaths in 2018. Those 7000 cases did not overload the system, so they figured they could do it despite the saddening increases in deaths that occurred earlier through the nursing homes.
What is flattening is the ICU curve, under 500 as I echoed above. If more and more people are infected but not dying, and not requiring ICU care, their herd immunity strategy will have a chance to succeed.
41
It’s good you linked the article, and from there the Swedish official stats can be seen:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
Google translates confirms this is the death chart;
https://imgur.com/M0yleFY
Indeed it does look like it is falling whilst the cases are spikey but generally flat.
https://imgur.com/9MrEIIt
But it isn’t rosy. Seems businesses are doing it tough because many stay at home, but because there’s no lockdown, there’s little to no government assistance either
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/05/sweden-hasnt-locked-down-but-normal-life-is-a-luxury/
20
But only if it is in one hit.
If 3000 Australians die of flu in a flu season (ie not the entire year), nobody bats an eyelid.
You write incredibly confidently for someone who cannot possibly have any idea of the fallout of the way this has been handled, nor what Australia puts up with on a yearly basis.
143
These COVID days have revealed
Just how much foreign viral disease
Is brought into Australia
By the open borders ruling ideology.
We are learning we do not have to put up with such diseases.
They are NOT inevitable
They are entirely unnecessary.
Such sickness & deaths are easily avoidable.
511
How are we going to avoid 1500-3000 seasonal flu deaths each year?
I await your omniscient reply. I trust attributing the adjective, “easy” to its solution will be a foregone conclusion.
The only problem then, will be to understand why you have not shared this solution with the world previously, preventing countless 1000s of deaths the world over.
131
Aaron Christiansen asked @ #22.3.1.1
First: Who do you mean by “we”? England? Norway? Denmark? Sweden? Australia? Tasmania? Paradise?
Second:
Assuming you do mean Australia, then 2019’s flu season was supposed to have been Australia’s worst season for a long time with three influenza viruses attacking the population. Anyone catching the trifecta would have been pretty unlucky.
The figures from last year [2019], according to the abc were over 310,000 cases and c. 900 deaths. The abc called it the the worst flu season on record. I’m curious: where did that figure of 1500 – 3000 influenza deaths come from?
If 2019 was Australia’s worst year, then all previous years were not as bad, so 1500 – 3000 influenza deaths is an exaggeration …
Now: prevention. There is a saying: an ounce of prevention is worth pounds of cure, ie: not catching influenza in the first place is the best approach. It’s actually relative easy: an individual only has to bring his/her blood serum levels of calcifediol up to a level of 38 – 50 ng/ml (the higher the better) and keep it there. Viruses are lazy: they infect (and kill) ‘the low hanging fruit’ or people with blood serum levels below 30 ng/ml.
If an individual’s blood serum levels are less than 20ng/ml, then he/she is a prime target for influenza and an influenza induced Acute Respiratory Tract Infection (bronchitis or pneumonia). Unfortunately, nearly 80% of adults fall into that category by the time the flu season arrives … but it is something which can be easily prevented.
22
If Bill says “We are learning we do not have to put up with such diseases.” and I respond, “How are we going to avoid 1500-3000 seasonal flu deaths each year?”, by logical deduction, I am referring to the same “we” to which Bill was referring. The rest of Bill’s comment can be read to derive the location, “Australia”.
Now here you have to have an idea of how media works. Bad news sells. If I have an article title that says “Flu season which struck down 310,000 Australians ‘worst on record’ due to early outbreaks” I can get clicks.
I can say “worst on record” if I define “worst” as “most infected”. If I defined “worst” as “most dead”, then clearly my article title will not be as click baity and gosh darn it people will look at another lolcat video instead.
The clue in the article to which you link is the 2nd paragraph:
Last year, Australia experienced its worst flu season on record, with more than 310,000 people presenting to hospital and health services nationwide.
Note how they don’t mention the deaths? Because they have been excluded from the definition of “worst”.
If you are interested in data, my suggestion is to find a site that contains data, like the Australia Bureau of Statistics (thoughtfully linked above) where you can find pages like https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/3303.0~2017~Main%20Features~Deaths%20due%20to%20influenza~5
On that page you will find information like the following:
Further down the page we discover there were 251,142 lab confirmed flu cases in 2017, with 1,255 deaths.
So tell me, which was the worst year for flu in Australia?
2017 with 251,142 cases and 1,255 deaths OR
2019 with 310,000 cases and 900 deaths?
For me, deaths trumps infections.
My quote of 1500-3000 was based on an estimate from this site: http://www.isg.org.au/index.php/clinical-information/influenza-fast-facts-/
Let’s say their number are completely spurious. For the sake of a thought experiment, let’s say there’s only 100 deaths. Both you “but it is something which can be easily prevented.” and Bill “Such sickness & deaths are easily avoidable.” contend that flu death is easily avoidable.
My question to you is: why hasn’t it happened? We have had the flu for decades. Apparently easily preventable deaths. Why can’t we prevent these easily preventable deaths?
As a counter example, I would suggest “eating too much food and not exercising much, if at all”, is in fact, actually easy. That is why, the Dept of Health website says
Preventing flu death is not easy, or it would have happened.
11
Aaron, this comparison with the flu has been used to drive every response and what if it is all rubbish?
As in an article in the Australian Spectator, I am very suspicious of the flu deaths.
There a doctor could not remember more than one death from the flu. So he asked his friends and they were the same. These massive flu totals do not fit with everyone’s experience in the medical profession. They seem greatly inflated.
Like everyone else, I believe what I am told. Initially. How many people do you know have died of the flu? In the US it is said to be 60,000 people last year. Really? Not pneumonia then?
94
Unlike your rhetorical question, we can easily see that the models used to drive the quarantined house arrest of innocent, healthy people were in fact rubbish.
According to the Ferguson model of the Imperial college, applied to the Swedish strategy, https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/
In early April around the peak of the academic community’s backlash against the Swedish government’s strategy, a group of researchers at Uppsala University attempted to do just that. They released an epidemiological model for Sweden that adapted the ICL COVID-19 model from Ferguson and his colleagues, and attempted to project the effects of Sweden’s unique response on both hospital capacity and total fatalities.
The Uppsala team’s presentation appears to closely follow the ICL approach. They presented a projection for an “unmitigated” response (also known as the “do nothing” scenario in the ICL paper), then modeled the predicted effects of a variety of policy interventions. These included staying the course on the government’s alternative approach of remaining open with milder social distancing guidelines, as well as implementing varying degrees of a lockdown.
…
The Swedish model laid out its predicted death and hospitalization rates for competing policy scenarios in a series of graphs. According to their projections (shown below in blue), the current Swedish government’s response – if permitted to continue – would pass 40,000 deaths shortly after May 1, 2020 and continue to rise to almost 100,000 deaths by June.
The most severe of the lockdown strategies they considered was supposed to cut that number to between 10-20,000 by May 1st
I am not surprised. People who have a fixed ideological position on something are suspicious of anything that does not support that position.
Unlike everyone else, the first thing I do when I read something is go check the source. It’s a relatively simple thing to do in this day and age.
How many people do you know have died of starvation?
How many people do you know have died (not just suffered) from stroke?
104
Aaron as I posted long ago,( the day before yesterday) the flu deaths are modeled expectations of a disease burden. http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/beware-the-famous-flu-death-tally-is-highly-adjusted-and-coronavirus-is-still-10-times-worse/
Can we name 3,000 people who died of the flu in Australia? Or is that number really the estimated deaths of all respiratory diseases for every virus circulating in Australia and does it include all bacterial pnumonia deaths too?
107
I suspect we could name 3000 Jo
https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/3303.0~2017~Main%20Features~Deaths%20due%20to%20influenza~5
I also think the comparison of CV19 with the flu is valid as they have a lot in common when it comes to the ages and co morbidities that are most affect by both.
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/05/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_6.pdf
73
I am not following you here Jo. You advocate for ongoing vaccination against seasonal flu but now appear to question deaths from seasonal flu.
How many people do you think die from the flu?
32
It will be easier to follow me if you read my posts.
Try quoting me. You apparently don’t have any idea what I advocate.
75
I didn’t quote you because it was insinuated in a comment you made directly to me. The site is very slow, so searching for the article in question, and then your comment seemed too laborious, given it was only a few days ago and I did not think your attitude towards vaccination would have changed.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/two-californians-doctors-say-the-mortality-rate-is-like-the-flu-but-it-was-sampling-bias-instead/#comment-2321896
I wasn’t suggesting we give up the flu vac, btw.
If I am wrong, and you “not suggesting giving up flu vac” is different to “advocating for ongoing flu vac”, then I apologise. In English, communication is rarely direct and implications / insinuations abound.
If, as it now appears, you do not advocate for seasonal flu vaccination, but you also do not suggest we give it up, if you can spare the time to elucidate what you do in fact advocate regarding seasonal flu vaccination, I would find it a fascinating middle ground between the 2 boundaries. Something that I have tried to construct and failed to. We’re talking about the middle ground of “do not stop flu vac” and “do not advocate flu vac”.
23
I suspect that’s because of a feeling of control. We can have a flu jab each year to minimise the chances of getting flu. If someone gets it and dies, they were either very unlucky or made a poor choice by not getting vaccinated.
Covid-19 is different because there’s so much unknown and no vaccine.
And to Jo’s earlier article, I can’t think of hearing about anyone that died of flu – almost 5 decades. Yet I personally knew a couple that died of Covid-19 in the Netherlands.
History will show the right hindsighted strategy.
If there’s community immunity and a vaccine, Australia should still look good for keeping the death toll low.
If there’s community immunity and no vaccine, then we’re either keeping quarantine until all countries have achieved immunity, or we end up managing our way up to community immunity some 18 months/2 years from now. Either way, the AU strategy is probably the wrong one since we’re either permanently crippled (tourism with 14 day quarantine is tough sell) or we’re just postponing the deaths.
If immunity is short-lived or non-existant, then a vaccine is likely impossible too. NZ’s elimination policy starts to look really good, and if AU can hang in there a bit longer and eliminate too, we’re golden.
Current strategy seems to have a 66% chance of AU’s being the right one. Converting from our current strategy to one of community immunity is easy. Converting the other way is nigh on impossible.
It’s kinda interesting that the US Defense Department will reject anyone that *had* Covid-19. Interesting implication should the country end up heading towards community immunity. Unclear if this is temporary or whatever;
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/06/coronavirus-survivors-banned-from-joining-the-military/
11
South Australia have just announced they are opening up the state to its residents for camping or visiting the regions .
Chairman Dan the glorious leader of the people’s republic of Victoriastan will not be happy with this news and for the first time ever I wish I lived in SA .
120
Germany are reopening with 165 new deaths and 947 new infections.
Ontario could reopen as soon as they went under 200 new cases / day.
The entirety of Australia has been at Ontario levels for 3 weeks now.
92
If there are any existing undetected cases in Victoria (more likely than not) then the absolute worst thing Dan could do would be to open the State up on Mother’s Day. Older kids visiting their aged mother in the aged care home or even their own private residence would be a guaranteed way to spread the virus to the most vulnerable group.
Dan’s no mug and his mother is still with us.
My wife’s view, that of a mother, if the kids only visit on Mother’s day then that is sad.
42
Rick I was more about the freedom to go fishing or camping in the bush etc or even just a drive .
60
The first round of loosening will allow up to 5 family members to visit other family. He would have been stupid to open up on Mother’s Day. Otherwise he would have needed to separate from what the Federal government has stated. Say you can go fishing this weekend but cannot go see your mother!
I think he is smart in delaying announcements and he defended it by saying he wants to see his mother as well, which I am certain he does.
I personally think they cannot believe where they are when they look at other countries. It is almost as if the balloon has to burst.
I saw a public servant being questioned on the Ruby Princess mess. She was bordering on tears with the realisation that she had contributed to CV19 deaths across Australia. I am certain all pollies and public servants will be taking small steps for fear of ending what has been an enviable result. But it has come at high cost.
Many more people now appreciate the meaning of exponential growth – Cedar meats 1 to 71 cases in 4 weeks even with the strictest practical controls over interpersonal space and hygiene.
70
We could get all the non-infected countries to wear a special uniform, maybe something in brown, perhaps?
All the still-infected countries could wear an emblem proclaiming their infection status. Perhaps something like a star. Like a medal. A nice shade of yellow. On their chest perhaps?
96
The yellow Swedish Star !
Sarc !
Of course that does depend on the willingness of the Swedish people
To tolerate their political masters experiment with their lives.
Go get ’em Swedish people
Kick these dopey idiots into oblivion !
212
It’s not the political masters doing it, though.
The government do not get the say in dealing with medical situations, that’s left to the medical experts. Like the chief epidemiologist. Imagine calling him a dopey idiot with such confidence.
I guess as long as an expert agrees with your pre-established ideological position, they are ok yeah?
But goodness if they have a different point of view, that’s right, stick the boots in. Dopey idiots indeed.
92
Sounds fitting given we can be jailed in Dans land for being outside our homes without permission.
81
The outrage when people went to the beach – probably the safest place with a virus, given
UV –> Vit D –> enhanced immunity
UV –> kills viruses
111
Fake news again !
The outrage was not about going to the beach as such
It was about the lack of social distancing
And the close contact partying.
So like the pubs and night clubs the beaches were closed.
But then re-opened with direction to maintain social distancing.
211
Where COVID-19 cases are growing the fastest today.
Countries with more than 5,000 active cases and more than 2.5% daily spread, sorted by new cases:
New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died
29,043 … USA … 1,019,489 … 2.8 … 5.95 (USA exceeded 1 million active cases today *)
10,699 … Russia … 159,528 … 6.7 … 0.92 (Russia is hiding thousands of deaths)
10,199 … Brazil … 76,603 … 13.3 … 6.85 (Brazil on track ~650K total cases, ~47K dead May 31st **)
4,649 … UK … 179,779 … 2.6 … 14.78
3,344 … India … 39,823 … 8.4 … 3.33 (India is currently on track for ~300K total cases by May 31st **)
3,321 … Peru … 41,121 … 8.1 … 2.77
3,262 … Spain … 65,410 … 5.0 … 10.11
1,982 … Mexico … 8,874 … 22.3 … 10.00
1,848 … Turkey … 45,484 … 4.1 … 2.72
1,791 … Pakistan … 18,306 … 9.8 … 2.27
1,701 … Saudi Arabia … 26,083 … 6.5 … 0.65
1,556 … Iran … 14,313 … 10.9 … 6.25
1,512 … Canada … 31,459 … 4.8 … 6.88
1,391 … Chile … 13,518 … 10.3 … 1.13
1,311 … Qatar … 17,819 … 7.4 … 0.06
1,158 … Germany … 21,378 … 5.4 … 4.40
933 … Belarus … 15,496 … 6.0 … 0.57
768 … Singapore … 19,647 … 3.9 … 0.09
709 … Bangladesh … 10,827 … 6.5 … 1.57
663 … South Africa … 5,564 … 11.9 … 2.00
642 … Sweden … 17,119 … 3.8 … 12.57
595 … Colombia … 7,199 … 8.3 … 4.26
553 … UAE … 12,782 … 4.3 … 1.04
504 … Ukraine … 11,128 … 4.5 … 2.54
495 … Egypt … 6,028 … 8.2 … 5.93
336 … Indonesia … 9,675 … 3.5 … 7.19
319 … Poland … 9,406 … 3.4 … 5.05
312 … Romania … 7,465 … 4.2 … 6.23
281 … Dominican Republic … 6,710 … 4.2 … 4.05
New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died
* Only in the USA, the most infected country on earth with the fastest growing active infection, would people be arguing that this is the right time to lift social isolation. Obviously they should do the opposite, make the isolation stricter and enforce it far more firmly for about 4 weeks and the spreading of COVID-19 cases would stop. That’s how their active cases would flatten and rapidly decline in June. But they won’t do that, Trump claimed to have total authority on when the reopening occurs, so he already took ownership of pending failure. Trump simply lacks the foresight and spine to do the right thing. As a result the US lockdown is a half-hearted, botched and wasted effort which will have to be done over much more forcefully and painfully with a far higher level of eroded morale, dissipated unity and massively larger economic and financial damage. Who needs mortal strategic enemies when this is what the USA does to itself? In the meantime the present circus of pretending isolation is not necessary will continue — until it can’t.
** The projected numbers given here for India and Brazil are based on the observed national expansion rate from May 1st to May 8th.
—
New Cases | Country | Active Cases | % New v Active | % Died
18 … Australia … 738 … 2.4 … 1.40
1 … New Zealand … 122 … 0.8 … 1.41
157
Thanks WXC !
for bringing the stats each day
And for providing your cogent thoughts on what these stats. mean.
I note that the Philippines and Argentina do not figure in that list.
Both nations have closed their borders and imposed strict lock downs
(And a daily 7.00 pm to 7.00 am curfew in the Philippines )
So I have high hopes for my friend in those places.
But what to say about the USA ?
I have a son & grand daughter there.
I wish they were here.
But the borders are closed.
And selling a home there
And finding new employment in Australia
Will be hard.
66
The Philippines is doing amazingly well at limiting the spread, I hope that can keep that up. Indonesia is also doing much better than they had been, they may get to June 1st with as few as 30,000 total cases to date, and a much smaller number of active case. Australia needs to help as much as possible to help prevent the SEA county’s active cases from blowing up above 50,000.
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WXC I have lived in the Philippines.
It is 115 million people crowded onto hundreds of islands
Totalling an area smaller than NSW.
I remember walking the streets of Manila & Naga City & Bagio & Legaspi
And the sheer density of the people in the streets.
That is where the lower income people live their lives.
So when the news came of Corona virus in the Philippines
I was to be frank scared for my lady’s family there.
But yes it seems that the situation is amazingly well there.
The borders are closed.
The lock down is in place with the curfew.
And everyone needs a pass to be outside their homes.
Each bario in the cities has closed the roads with local armed police
To prevent people moving about.
And the smaller towns have closed the roads into them except for food & essential supplies
The huge city ‘SM mall’ complexes are closed except on designated days
When people are allowed entry to buy food and other supplies.
But everyone entering the malls is temperature checked and checked for weapons.
Everyone wears masks outside their homes.
Masks have been given to the poor by NGO’s
The government has provided some money to those
Thrown out of work because of the Lockdown.
My lady stays in touch via mobile and messenger.
And she is cheerful about what is happening.
No one is objecting to the lockdown or curfew.
With all the close ties to the USA, they are
Well informed about the disaster in the USA,
And in New York especially.
The huge big issue is an economic one:
About 3 million Filipinos work in other countries
As Overseas Filipino Workers – OFW’s.
But almost all that work has dried up.
And many have come home unexpectedly
Not knowing about their future work situation. .
55
Thanks for that update, very interesting to hear details of how different countries are doing this. Even poor countries can beat it with the right approaches. I hope they can begin to shrink the active numbers soon so they can remain in control.
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As the US is in the throes of an election cycle, every statistic should be assumed to be something between a distortion and an outright lie,
unless true by accident. One party has decided to run on a recoverable economy, the other on continued shutdown with control and tracking.
Add racism charges, a 50 year staple of US politics. I regret to suggest that no US data can be assumed useful in any scientific research
or for the purpose of making any intelligent decisions.
One this is sure: we have been much closer to the Swedish model than any other.. Between operating a food supply chain for 320 million people,
and the travel of volunteer health professionals to and from hot spots; the out and about lives of first responders, the lives of the undocumented and
unruly and lawless, and the lack of or difficulty of wide scope testing…. a virus can win here.
A very coarse reading suggests that the number one mediation may be warm sunny weather plus overall population density; the number one
disaster is nursing homes, and beyond that there is very little we can be certain of.
Virtually all other numbers we see domestically are competitive, depending on the motivations of the source, and based towards
support of “open” or “close” for political, rather than scientific reasons.
It is true, however, that there are a lot of numbers out in the open so a researcher looking at all may get some idea of where reality lies,
unlike a closed society.
I am of the opinion that in most of the country the population has lost confidence that the government(s) can engineer a sensible policy based on science,
so we are opening up with precautions based on the common sense of the herd….and some instruction in venues that have appeared well run such as Florida….
avoiding disasters at nursing homes whilst not confining people with force as in about half our states seems the best results we can point to.
Early on, by the way, Florida tried to station state troopers on the interstate stopping and temperature testing people with New York plates. The Feds stopped this
as unconstitutional; and there have been no internal controls since except for a few cities, such as Gallup, New Mexico, that have been fully quarantined in medieval fashion.
21
What I am afraid of Richard is that opening up too soon without any borders, and with “the virus” will be an ongoing trainwreck for the economy which is possibly exactly what Democrats are hoping for.
32
Every country has a death rate,
Which for this year, we just have to wait,
Counting all folks who die,
As to where, when and why,
When analysts all data collate.
140
Hi Rauri
Glad youre back….
40
Hong Kong muddled its way to an effective approach, with the government catching up with the people at times. For example, healthcare workers going on strike over the initial refusal to close the border with China.
The modus operandi has been 2 weeks’ quarantine (with monitoring and testing) for new arrivals (only residents allowed to enter HK) and strictly enforced 2 weeks’ isolation for anyone who has been in close contact with a positive tested person. Any positive test goes into isolation in hospital – not told to self isolate at home. Restaurants have stayed open with distancing (but business will have been abysmal) and bars, gyms etc closed. They’re now reopening. A lot of businesses have been working from home, where possible, because no business wants to get shut down by every employee being put into isolation if a single person tests positive. Shops have remained open and people have been able to move about freely in groups no larger than 4. Everyone wears masks in public.
The end result has been that there have been just a handful of local transmissions in the past month and I think none in the past few weeks, with all the recent new cases “imports” – HK residents returning home and testing positive on arrival or during their quarantine. There are now only about 100 active infections in Hong Kong, all in hospital. Cumulative cases is at something like 1,040, so over 900 discharged. There have been 4 deaths. This in a population of 7 million.
There’s no doubt this has involved a major hit to many businesses, but the smug, self-righteous talk of “covidiots” and shaming of people going into parks or police checking shopping carts for “non-essential” items is bemusing. The real problem is the failure to close borders, test arrivals, track the infected and isolate their close contacts. You don’t need to be a government science adviser to come up with that sort of strategy – just common sense. Complacency and arrogance turned out not to help: what a surprise!
Sure, China’s covering up in the very early days made it more difficult, and the WHO participated in that, but governments just needed to watch the news to realise that they had to do something. Again, just common sense.
Nobody is complacent about the reopening process – everyone is very aware that things could still go wrong – but at least there is a shot at keeping numbers of new cases at zero.
170
Thank you H K resident !
Good to get some on the ground information from Hong Kong.
Good luck there to you all in HK !
46
That is such great news, if HK can beat the high contagiousness of this virus it means any city can do it.
122
Great to hear that a lack of internal lock down is working in Hong Kong, thanks.
Clearly a better strategy is to do what HK have done, and track / isolate the sick, not the healthy.
92
Clearly Hong Kong is not listening t
To any one from Sweden !
LOL !
56
I don’t want to give the impression that it hasn’t been hard and it’s inevitable that many businesses will sadly not make it through this, but a lot of the lockdown has been people being cautious in their own behaviour and just being sensible about staying home as much as possible, wearing a mask as a courtesy to others even if you’re not worried about it yourself, etc.
And yes, you’ve summed it up perfectly. Isolate the sick (and through tracking, the potentially sick) and not the healthy.
110
One key element for me is treating citizens like adults. Allowing them to retain agency / liberty. A dream situation.
92
So why not allow in the Chinese to HK who appear to be healthy and not had contact (via tracking) with anyone known to be sick? Because you can’t know, and because tests and produce false negatives, hence quarantine for people to prove through time’s passing that they almost certainly don’t have it.
That seems to be just one more unworkable argument against having quarantine on all travelers.
73
Among the wicked aspects of this pandemic is the elongated and inconsistent incubation periods and the large numbers of asymptomatic carriers.
50
Hong Kong Resident, thanks for the onsite update. It was indeed a scandal and desperate that doctors had to strike to get the borders shut which so many in HK wanted.
I agreed with them and advocated we do the mandatory quarantine all along — international borders are so much cheaper than domestic lockdown, and HK was very smart about that, along with mask wearing as well.
Only by catching infections at the border can any nation afford to quarantine the positive cases in hospital. Once the infections are let in, and allowed to grow — the need for a domestic lockdown of both the sick and the well (but unknown status) becomes inevitable.
110
Never mind the world regions in Australia are already doing it, not sure what life is like in our capital cities but out in regional Victoria people are out and about almost like normal with or without Great Leader’s consent, if the police wanted to crack down on people I don’t know where they’d start, a friend in Ararat said people social distanced for a couple of days then went about business as usual.
Here in Ballarat we have one active case and no new ones for 40 days, try telling folks they’ll have to lose incomes, savings, property and business because they’re too stupid to wash hands or keep a distance, a bit of respect for the common sense of country folk might go a long way to economic recovery and the ballot box.
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Great to hear.
People will continue to say the lockdown is an ongoing necessity, despite not knowing what is actually happening on the ground.
92
Jo, I think it is incumbent on you to at least publish one article discussing the worldometer data and how it is accumulated so your disciples can learn some basic data accumulation facts.
Deaths are not recorded, tallied and published immediately at the time of death. Cause of death can take any number of days to determine (pause 1) and be added to a tally (pause 2) before finally being published (pause 3).
When Billy dies of COVID-19 on Saturday, his cause of death is not determined until Tuesday, the tally is updated that afternoon and then published Wednesday. That Wednesday update now has the death inclusion of someone who died 4 days prior.
Worldometers simply subtracts Tuesday’s total deaths (3000) from Wednesday’s total deaths (3173) and the anti-Swedish model commenters here say AHHA!!! 173 deaths on Wednesday. Dopey (PhD in Medicine from Linköping University) idiots!!
Only Sweden knows when Billy died, and retrospectively updates Saturday’s death total to reflect the reality of what is happening.
I am suggesting you do it as this is the second time I am explaining why worldometer data is unreliable, clearly the first time was missed.
52
Aaron, read the post. I’m not quoting any death stats.
Nothing you said is news to me nor relevant to this post.
24
Did you read my comment? I did not say you were quoting any death stats.
I was simply asking you to educate your disciples in regards to how data is accumulated. They appear hard of learning, despite many attempts of others to show them reality.
Despite agreeing with RickWill constantly that Sweden’s death count is going up, Bill is now saying it’s pedantic to say it is in fact going down.
His entire argument here rests on Sweden’s apparent ongoing increase in deaths.
11
So you are saying World meters does not accurately count the ‘daily death’ toll in Sweden.
Ok…. …
But the total death count quite accurate as we now know from comparing the Swedish site & the World Of Meters site for Sweden..
That’s what your being so fussy about ?
Spare me !
Spare the rest of us here too !.
This is pure pedantry.
15
It’s time to consider a situation where we have eliminated the virus.
And a single copy gets into the country, somehow. What happens?
Firstly, we are now very aware of it and the risk, if we know it has happened.
This awareness is something we did not have in January because of the China/WHO coverup. And the bushfires did help keep the Chinese tourists away.
Working on 80% no symptoms, 10% hospital level, 5% intensive care.
Without big events where the risk goes up as the square of the number of people, you would get with social distancing and small groups perhaps 4 day doubling so 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 at 1,5,9,13,17,21,25 days. Plus 14 days incubation so around a month with 64 infected before the case pops up at a hospital. This is the Cedar Meats case.
So I would suggest
1. inform everyone of the location and timing of any infection and many with slight symptoms will come forward voluntarily. That will help. It was not done with Cedar Meat.
2. Inform everyone of the location. Cedar Meat. Young & Jacksons hotel. The racecourse. It will help as people self identify.
2. check and inform the immediate family
3. check and inform the workplace or places. This was not done with Cedar Meat.
4. check and inform the friends
5. check the places frequented and hope there is no mass event.
This means social distancing is with us until there is an inoculation. And everyone has to treat a dry cough and headache as a potential infection.
If a quick reliable test becomes available, that will help incredibly. A valid test would open doors.
Groups have to be kept to a minimum. Restaurant, golf, social events, sport.
Huge events are impossible. Spring Carnival, football crowds, car racing. Or have to be kept to closed groups.
And anyone who is sick has to stay away from work and social events until they are quite well. That’s never a bad idea anyway. So much for ‘soldier on’.
It will be nice to live in a society where people are not sick half the time with colds. As for the economy, we might get a lot more done without these casual and sometimes killer diseases.
What is certain is that the explosive growth of mass international rapid cheap tourism is at an end. Frankly, it was destroying places like Venice and Paris and there were more people looking at the penguin parade in Phillip Island than there were penguins looking back.
103
Closed borders to anyone from an infected country is essential.
If they have to come then 2,3,4 weeks quarantine
(CCP China is enforcing 4 weeks quarantine for anyone entering China.
I suspect they know something our CMO’s do not know yet i )
Yes . a vaccine is urgently needed !
65
I am hopeful of a quick test for the virus or antibodies. Or a testing certificate. For travellers we must get back to innoculations which are in my yellow book for travelling. I used to have to present it on arrival as part of Immigration and Health. Now no one checks health. Why?
The risks are much higher today than they have ever been. And no one checks?
At the points of entry they check for fruit fly. Wood. They quarantine your pets. They make you go through endless scans and take off your belt and shoes and watch and wallet and phone and computers. And take the battery out of your computer.
They ask you if you are carrying a B*mb or rocket launcher or p*isons or the makings for a chemical b*mb or more than 200ml of liquid or a pair of nail scissors but not if you are carrying a deadly highly infectious disease?
Why?
53
‘What is certain is that the explosive growth of mass international rapid cheap tourism is at an end.’
Agree, only the very idle rich should be allowed to travel. In this way the petit bourgeoise will finally recognise their true place in the grand scheme of things and tourist destinations would return to the sedate 1930s.
32
The disease came by jet and ship Gordo. A fairly safe bet there will be restricted access and new procedures to dramatically lower the risk to our damaged economy and national debt from here. The false-economy of tourism benefits to the economy have now crystallized in NQLD so there will be much less likelihood of taxpayer funded mass campaigns to attract tens of thousands of Chinese tourists to the GBR in the future.
Though the numbers of large crocodiles and sharks seems to have already spared us COVID-19 community spreading, there were already not many visitors to the GBR. But every greenie knows it’s really just sugar cane farmers and coal miners who endanger coral. Ships and jets loaded with Chinese people don’t normally destroy sees full of coral reefs … … oh … wait …
We’re not going to be getting tourists back to north QLD in large numbers without shark nets and drum-lines plus a serious long-term large and well funded program to eliminate saltwater crocodiles that are longer than 1.5 meters in rivers and on islands south of Cooktown. We should have done that 10 years ago. The breeders can live north of Cooktown. The length of crocodile river habitat plus coast and islands, from Cooktown around the gulf to the NT border is … well, and very very long distance, longer than the distance from Cooktown to Brisbane. I see no excusable reason for why the whole of Queensland should be permitted any longer to be a crocodile sanctuary. The vast crocodile habitat continues westwards all the way to Exmouth on NW Cape in Western Australia so why is the whole coastline and all rivers and islands south of Cooktown permitted to have large saltwater crocs present larger than 1.5 m? A saltwater croc that’s longer than 1.8 m will attempt to attack and rip a limb off an adult. So as long as these things are present in every river from Cooktown to Fraser Island we can forget about large numbers of foreign tourists returning to QLD any time soon.
85
WXC The salties have run out of habitat on the Australian coast
And are now spreading out Northwards
To Timur L’Este, PNG, Indonesia and even the Philippines.
In these places the salties take locals
And the locals return the favour with automatic weapons.
15
Ultimately the proof is in the pudding.
‘Sweden has had a surge in deaths from coronavirus, surpassing the rate of the USA, according to new figures.
‘The Scandinavian nation controversially rejected the stricter lockdown approach of other countries in their strategy to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, keeping most schools open, as well as stores and restaurants.’
9 News
43
Patient Zero
‘The Wuhan wet market initially identified as the place of origin, Fox News said, never sold bats. However, China blamed the wet market to deflect blame from the laboratory, the report said.
‘The virus was being studied in the lab as an attempt by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to “demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States,” Fox News said, quoting multiple sources.’
News 18
40
“Community spread blamed for over half of Ontario’s new COVID-19 cases, ‘perplexing’ top doctor”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-may-8-update-1.5560984
“Data from millions of cell phones show how spring break was a catalyst for the pandemic in Quebec”
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/05/geolocalisation-deplacements-provinces-regions-quebec-montreal-distanciation-sociale/index-en.html
“As Quebec revises reopening dates, government risks adding uncertainty to uncertain times”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/covid-quebec-reopening-coronavirus-public-health-1.5560258
20
Expect multiple waves of covid19 with the follow on waves being worse than the original one. Countries shut down quickly and are now reopening too early
Governments will be reluctant to shut things down a second time. Too much money has already been spent fighting the pandemic. By then it will be too little, too late.
So far most of the deaths in the west have been in long term care homes. This is a specialized environment for seniors who cannot take care of themselves
The infection has yet to penetrate strongly to the healthy, independent living elderly who have been sheltering without using personal support workers. As the background level of infections grow, these independent seniors will be increasingly at risk
30
Many such seniors live at home
With care & support from carers who come to their homes.
That is their point of vulnerability.
24
“UK ‘to bring in 14-day quarantine’ for air passengers”
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52594023
There is a devil in the details
20
From the link kindly provided by Raving :
“UK airlines say they have been told the government will bring in a 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving in the UK from any country apart from the Republic of Ireland in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
The new restriction is expected to take effect at the end of this month.
Industry body Airlines UK said the policy needed “a credible exit plan” and should be reviewed weekly.
People arriving in the UK would have to self-isolate at a private residence.
Government and aviation sources told BBC News that the quarantine would mean people might be expected to provide an address when they arrive at the border.”
Ummmm ?
Clearly the British government has learned nothing yet. This Quarantine has as many holes in it as a colander.
PS The Corona Virus 9 Virus Embassy in the UK , has issued a press release thoroughly approving this new UK
non discriminatory policy.
PPS : John Cleese and the still living members of Monty Python have come out of retirement in their aged care centers, to thank the British government for providing them with the script of their forth coming new film.
PPS : The British public having become aware of the utter incompetence of it’s rulers, is expected to mount a series of ‘socially distanced’ mass demonstrations at Heathrow airport with the goal of stopping all flights into the UK.
15
Raving, But not til the end of may! Two months too late, and still slow…
42
“There’s been no spike in personal and business bankruptcies, but surge is expected this fall”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bankruptcies-coronavirus-personal-corporate-deferral-1.5551722
This explains what is going to happen and why people should prepare for hard times ahead. The economic crisis hasn’t started yet
41
Raving thanks for that.
Is this a simple reflection of the Pandemic disease crisis ?
Or
A reflection of the Canadian government’s policies dealing with the economic knock effects of the pandemic ?
15
It captures the real damage that the pandemic shut down has already caused but will not be felt until months from now.
There is huge optimism over opening up , getting back to work and winning big in the world pandemic olympics. Sure governments have spent a bundle but that is magic money that will somehow be cared for. Sure there is huge unemployment now but everyone will go backto work and things will be humming after that. Stock market keeps going higher and higher. Boeing is back to making more 737MAX. Carnival is planning for August cruises.
The optimism is unreal
What is real is the looming tsunami of bankruptcies cause by people being out of work for 3-4 months or longer. Those wave of personal and commercial bankruptcies will trigger the depression
61
I wonder, this virus kills in many ways. Those with least resistance are the likely victims. The Spanish Flu killed fit young men. 90% were aged 20-50 and men outnumbered women 3:1.
The second wave killed everyone.
So would this virus have been treated differently if it killed mainly children under 10?
Or teenagers? Or just teenage girls? You can be assured the inventors of these pathogens are trying to build viruses which kill selectively. At least they know about this one.
But my point remains. Would the three thousand deaths in Sweden have been tolerated if they were all babies?
This is where morality meets science. A lot of what I read is of people making judgements about the value of individual lives. Young vs old, productive vs retired, mobile vs immobile. How would anyone like to be locked into an old people’s home with this around?
My view is that all lives are valuable. That’s it, black, white, rich, poor, male, female, old, young, clever, not so clever, fit and disabled and the Uigurs and the Gypsies and the Tartars and the Chinese. Remember the rape of Nanking? It is utterly offensive to read that some lives are disposable or worth less than others. Who judges?
We fought a great world war 75 years ago because we disagreed with that. Sooner or later the right to live judges come for you and yours. Especially if you disagree.
Stop this virus and all other viruses. We have that right and we can do it. Then look at how we can live in a world where international travel does not mean plagues.
80
“Government to urge us all to walk and cycle more”
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52592421
Context is everything
Great time to work at home, avoid and cut public transport. Consult with physicians over the telephone.
Progress forward to the peasant economy. No jobs. It’s easy being part of the self powered, self housed gig economy in high density cities without even public transport.
In fact maybe best to just return to a rural existence. That will save energy NOT
Question – How can a city afford to have its citizens walk shop bicycle dine and work in a dense area with low energy density?
Answer – Think of London Paris Rome Venice … Lots of money and huge external support
40
Jo, the Americas, Europeans and probably Asia will not be free of COVID19 because it is already endemic and there are too many contiguous borders. For example, if Canada did get rid of Covid19, we could not shut our border to US truck traffic. The US has too much interstate traffic and lack of fiscal will to close down travel and commerce. Similar for Europe. Asia might be viable but it would need all those countries to have strong border policies. Don’t think that will happen but maybe possible
Most countries in Europe are already talking of opening up while accepting low levels of infection. They arent willing to spend the money to eradicate the virus
50
O/t..free speech or kowtowing to other interests?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/16/university-of-queensland-takes-disciplinary-action-against-pro-hong-kong-student-activist
“Pavlou said the claims he breached university policies mainly related to his activism. They include satirical social media posts, opposition to the university’s contract with the Confucius Institute, and comments critical of the vice-chancellor, Peter Høj.
“Guardian Australia has reviewed a summary of the “misconduct” charges, which include claims his conduct was inappropriate and abusive, and that he damaged the reputation of the university. None suggest he has acted unlawfully.
“Last year, after helping to organise a protest in support of the Hong Kong independence movement, Pavlou was assaulted in the university grounds by a group of pro-China protesters who gatecrashed the event.
50
This is a SCIENCE blog.
But the discussion about how Sweden is dealing with this pandemic infectious disease, is fundamentally not about science. It is about ethics, morals & values.
The Swedish Herd Immunity strategy kills the old, the sick, the infirm.
That is wrong. It is also illegal for obvious reasons.
The Swedish experiment is an immoral and illegal form of managing this infectious disease.
The other side is defending a strategy which is probably illegal by Swedish law & immoral.
But we have some here defending the indefensible.
Of course that will lead to flame wars.
They are inevitable.
This blog usually attracts a lot of persons who are Christian and who usually have firm ideas about ethics, moral and what is legal.
But I see very few condemnations from such persons here.
That for me, of a stoical cast of thinking, is puzzling
111
izarre.
In
he
xtreme.
61
“izarre”
“Anyone who disagrees with me is a Nazi”. Bill has jumped the shark, invoking Godwin’s law through hubristic ignorance.
12
As you defend the indefensible
And the immoral.
You beyond the pale.
Indeed a pariah.
To be shunned.
03
Thinking further on this
I have come to the conclusion
That this ‘Herd Immunity’ is
Manslaughter or maybe even murder
By conscious neglect.
07
‘Herd Immunity’ is modern day
Eugenics.
Has Sweden been incubating the relic of German Nazism for the past 75 years ?
07
The “Science’ of Eugenics
Reincarnated in Sweden of all places !
16
Jo – somewhat O/T
There are some interesting threads over at The Air Vent
Start at the top
https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/
11
You can keep going round in circles, looking at whatever data and graphs you like, but there is only one realistic way out of this from where we are – go back to normal and accept the consequences (which in all probability won’t be anywhere near as bad as some people fear).
We have to accept the opportunity was missed to contain the virus in China, and move on, current policies are too economically, mentally, and physically damaging, and will cost far more lives in the longer run.
“…I increasing think lifting the stay-at-home orders as soon as possible and letting the epidemic run its course is the only realistic option for most and perhaps even all countries”
https://necpluribusimpar.net/lets-have-a-honest-debate-about-herd-immunity/
On another note, UK TV has been doing the usual cheer leading in mocking Trump, this time on his views regarding the origins of the virus, even though he is only saying what they themselves were reporting a few weeks ago! We have the program Gogglebox where you watch people watching programs and commenting, it’s always very illuminating how people are sucked in by the BBC’s/Attenborough’s climate propaganda. Anyway, this time they were all brainlessly pointing fingers and laughing at Trump, but the only viewer who soberly admitted Trump’s ‘conspiracy theory’ was possible, even likely, happens to be a qualified microbiologist.
61
That’s Brilliant MrGrimNasty.
The usefulness of the comment comes from its simplicity in showing the way out.
It invites us to step back, take a deep breath, and move on sensibly.
Every country is different in what it offers to the Virus as a breeding ground and the action taken by authorities must reflect the reality in each case.
Sadly the “action” appears to be based on the political imperatives of keeping onside with the Media and remaining electable.
Simplicity is illustrated by a couple of early standouts that should have guided politicians here.
The first SIX CV19 Deaths in Australia had one thing in common:
They were All over Seventy years of age and at least one was in the Nineties.
Another “guide” was the photograph of the large New York family which suffered terribly from CV19.
The photo has been linked here several times before.
So, what “caused” most of Australia’s CV19 pain:
basically it can be summarised under the heading of Government.
Don’t mention Border Farce because then we might have to mention the Ruby Princess and open Airports.
Yes! We pay these people.
There has always been a simpler solution for Australia.
Control borders.
Locate and “properly” isolate new outbreaks of CV19.
Let the Healthy get back to normal life on the understanding that CV19 avoidance measures are understood and carried through everywhere.
Put HepA filters in all air conditioning systems in nursing homes as mentioned by someone a few days ago here.
Politics has failed us, once again and we need to think outside the box at the next election.
The most damaging virus we have in Australia today is in our political system, Public Service and Education and the big enabler, The Media.
Free Australia from this parasitic superstructure.
KK
22
Keith, It’s good that you have put your own perspective down on paper for us all to read. As I was reading I found myself nodding in agreement. But then disagreeing as well.
1 : When this disease was first discussed here Jo said “Close the Borders”. But the Borders were not closed until almost too late. Why ? Because of the intense lobbying from our Universities wanting money from international students & the tourist industry wanting money from tourists, and the airlines wanting money from paying passengers. ( Remember SLOMO ? )
2: Eventually the borders were closed but we had already imported this virus and this disease – from China, from Iran, from Italy, from Spain, from France, from the UK, from the USA : Travellers, tourists, students and Australians. . And of course many persons infected with this disease are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic so the wave was almost upon us.
3 : Given this situation Jo called for a lock down. And the government on advice from it medical officers did so. But it was late. I remember here in SA that we had just 7 Corona virus infections in SA on March 7th. but we had no idea how many others there were who were not yet diagnosed or simply carriers. And then as Jo predicted, the infection count boomed like a balloon into the hundreds. That ballooning happened despite the lockdown – not because of it. And I wonder what the score would have been if we had not locked down. Vastly higher I suggest.
4 : We have almost eliminated this virus across Australia. Our governments are starting now to reduce the level of restrictions on our lives while also fearing another outbreak. So this process is gradual. But it is happening. And each state is doing this at it’s own pace. There is nota single formula. The NT is way ahead. But Victoria lags far behind. And that is a reflection of the infection count in each. Here in SA I’m looking forward to open libraries, open parks and garden, having a coffee or meal seated at a cafe ( even if outside at this stage ) My lady is really looking forward to going to Op shops again.
5 : I think that in a few months we will part of a bubble of linked countries which have suppressed this virus : New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, Norway, the Pacific Island nations, etc. And maybe even PNG where the virus despite many fears has not taken hold yet. ( crossed fingers ! ) Maybe CCP China will be part of that group – if it can prove it is virus free. ( Personally I am doubtful. )
6 : But the theory of a globally connected world with borderless travel is gone. It is dead. It is now quietly being buried. And that provides new opportunities as well as problems. WE will not see huge gatherings of Greenist pollies and activists determined to save the planet by killing our nation in favor of a UN dominated governing process. Paris is dead. So is Kyoto and all the various ‘summits’. The future will see a time for each nation to re-forge it’s future according to the wishes of it’s own people.
03
Anyone else catch the press conference this morning from a NSW health official (?) saying the death of an elderly patient from the ill fated nursing home cluster was not from covid but put down as other cause because the patient had recovered from the virus the week before .
Patient had been in hospital for about three weeks .
50
Splitting hairs Rob.
Not impressed at all.
08
Huh ? , Didn’t say I agreed with it I was asking a question !
Did leave the question mark off though .
60
Although looking at this story you could be forgiven for thinking someone was desperate to keep the death off the NSW Covid death tally .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/nsw-coronavirus-newmarch-house-death-after-covid-19-recovery/12230504
30
Hey everyone…shall we go grab a glass of red and chill a bit?
Lets work through things carefully and that way minimize any cranky-pants monents…
Those who may be deliberately inflaming the situation know better….tsk…
41
There are long winded skeptics and then there are the shorter version. From a climate blog comment:
“This is a funny kind of pandemic, though; featuring empty hospitals, comparatively very few deaths, plenty of time for politicians to bumble around making ridiculous statements, and absolutely no evidence of any spread of any single disease that can be proven to be due to this supposed “new virus”. This pandemic also features an almost infinite list of symptoms, and claims that infected carriers are asymptomatic. How convenient…”
The debate on this episode will likely extend into the 25th Century.
21
Testing is the answer to travels and economic hardship.
Innoculation , vaccination is the cure for all.
02
Re International travel :
There is no vaccine
And it needs to be safe, effective and cheap
Should one be developed.
Even universal testing will be unreliable
As often persons are incubating the virus at a low level
And not yet displaying symptoms.
In essence the tests are not sensitive enough.
And neither of these are ‘cures’.
Quarantine is the only available known effective response.
I note that China under Xi Jin Ping’s dictatorship,
Enforces a 28 day quarantine.
02
> “Australia and New Zealand may soon open up a safe travel zone in the South Pacific and some mock it as a “bubble”” [Nova quote]
Of course it’s a bubble, and many more than “some” understand this.
A bubble hiding in the South-West Pacific Ocean – with no civilised manufacturing and no capital to purchase it from all the banned (unclean) countries.
And you assume that anyone who understands this a “globalist”. Nope, that’s propaganda. But international trade, including a regular two-way flow of people and materials, is one essence of modern civilisation, another being affordable, reliable energy of course. Oh, and no abitrary, pointless little nit-picks gleefully enforced by armed gendarmes.
You need to examine how Taiwan did it. I see that country is missing from your little list. Most of the MSM, now including this website, avoid discussing that example.
The curve is flattened, smashed. Moving the goalposts now is exactly what you’ve loudly deprecated in others for 10 years. Domestic activity is being re-started here, with international Asian trade likely by November/December. Give it up now – the greenies are using your plonks here to barrack for keeping the constraints as part of their own purposes.
40
Dear friends, I wish to see a new and parallel set of curves:
The public debt of the governments imposing varying degrees of lockdown upon their populations.
Each of the ruling entities around the world faces increased costs, decreased revenues, and temporarily enhanced emergency powers.
Will any government wish the private economy to recover before the government finances are made whole?
Will any government voluntarily give up the increased powers claimed during this pandemic?
Will any government restructure its priorities from before, or simply layer additional responsibilities onto itself?
How will accountability for events be assigned internally?
How will accountability for events be assigned internationally?
I would submit that most governments are already grappling with these issues with a greater intensity than they are spending on the virus, possibly because they
know they have essentially lost control of that struggle unless a suitable mass-producable vaccine is forthcoming.
11
Ahh yes,
The dismal ‘science’ !
Economics t’was ever thus..
And an early adopter of ‘modelling’
Copying such sciences as physics and astronomy
In an attempt to cloth itself in scientific robes .
But of course humans do not behave
AS predicted by such modelling mathematical formulae.
I long ago gave it all away as a mug’s game.
02
The Canadian numbers are skewed by two provinces with the largest populations, Ontario and Quebec and to a lesser degree Alberta. Provinces such as British Columbia have good numbers: British Columbia COVID-19 Dashboard.
Ontario and Quebec school spring breaks happen earlier in March than do those of the other ten provinces. Experts believe many infections were imported from the US by returning Spring break vacationers. Adding to the problem the federal government and national health authorities were late implementing border quarantine restrictions on travelers.
50
Thank you Jim. We appreciate knowing why our Canadian cousins are struggling. Hope it sorts itself out in summer. Sad that Canada is yet another example of closing the door too late. – Jo
52
The Central Clinical Hospital of the Ministry of Interior in Warsaw uses a modern monoclonal antibody to fight COVID-19. – The effects are spectacular – says prof. Katarzyna Życińska from the CSK MSWiA. – Patients who received the medicine after a few days were disconnected from the respirator – he emphasizes.
So far, 20 patients have been given the drug, all responded “spectacularly”
“Fighting the inflammatory process
He also explains that the cytokine storm is the body’s immune state in which it begins to produce various types of substances that on the one hand are designed to fight the inflammatory process, but on the other can also intensify the inflammatory response. So, as a consequence, the patient’s condition can get much worse.
– Knowing about the occurrence of such a situation, we reach for Tocilizumab – a drug that counteracts the inflammatory storm arising as a result of virus infection – says prof. Życińska. He points out that Tocilizumab is an antibody that blocks an important substance that enhances the development of inflammation – interleukin 6.”
The Australasian Society for Clinical Immunology and Allergy recommend tocilizumab be considered as an off-label treatment for those with COVID-19 related acute respiratory distress syndrome. It states this because of its known benefit in cytokine storms caused by a specific cancer treatment, and that the cytokine storm may be a contributor to mortality in severe COVID-19.[36]
On 11 March 2020, Italian physician Paolo Ascierto reported that tocilizumab appeared to be effective in three severe cases of COVID-19 in Italy.[37] On 14 March 2020, three of the six treated patients in Naples had shown signs of improvement prompting the Italian Pharmacological Agency (AIFA) to expand testing in five other hospitals.[38] Roche and the WHO are each launching separate trials for its use in severe COVID-19 cases.[39]
In March 2020 a randomized study, at 11 locations in China, which should conclude by 31 May 2020, started to compare favipiravir versus tocilizumab versus both.[40]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tocilizumab
40
Excellent & important news Ren
Thanks..
It give hope to all of us.
02
Jo
In considering whether society can cope I know active cases is the bellwether to look at in regard to spread but it is deaths that is surely the key bottom line. If one compares to flu active cases are perhaps 40-80 million per year yet deaths attributed to flu are about 350,000 -600,000. As has been shown these figures are potentially highly rubbery but have occurred even though a vaccine exists. People accept that as life as usual , and we learn to live with it. Because we have no real way currently to know with any certainty the actual number of people who have had Coronavirus we have no idea how many people in the world have been infected and what is the death rate. All we know is that it is certainly far lower than is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of active cases. If it transpired that the death rate was in fact comparable to flu would our responses been as severe and debilitating to the economy as has been so far.
I say this because looking at second wave Singapore ( I don’t know why they call it a second wave. Looking at the first wave only 8 people died hardly even a swell) strange things are happening. Since the beginning of April when they opened the borders active cases have gone up 22 fold from 900 to over 22000 yet deaths have barely doubled from 8 to 20. In Australia in that time our deaths have more than tripled from 30 to 97 and we are managing brilliantly.
I know that deaths is a lagging indicator but Singapore highlights the panic and fear of the dangers of a second wave may be grossly overblown because maybe something about the second wave may make the virus less deadly. If as only time will tell this theory that the second wave is less deadly and if we could work out why , then more and more countries could open up even beyond your limited list of countries where active cases have diminished to such low levels.
I speculate that the reasons that so few deaths have occurred are 1. I have jumped the gun and over the next month the numbers will explode ( making my post somewhat moot) .2. That lessons learnt have prepared Singapore in a way that they have been able to manage the active cases so that mostly younger healthier people have been infected and the elderly and at risk people protected. In particular nursing homes.Singaporeans may be generally healthier with higher vitamin D levels than the rest of the world. 3. That tracing and testing is at a level of efficiency they have been able to manage all the second wave outbreaks so that the hospital intakes are at manageable levels and isolation of affected people reduces further spread to vulnerable people . 4. They are treating patients with one of the treatments ( or something else) that is currently being trialled elsewhere with success. 5. The second wave is a mutated version of the first wave but less deadly even if as contagious. 6. Just dumb luck, climate, geography and demographics unique to Singapore contribute to the low death rate.
Whatever the reason is I think it is worth monitoring as it may have clear messages going forward because we can’t allow the fear of a second wave paralyse policy makers from allowing societies to get back to normal including ( in reasonable time) international travel.
41
G’day Z,
My guess is your #4. And possibly they’ve seen Dr Zelenko and are using his “cocktail”, maybe even with vitamin D added??
Cheers
Dave B
20
Zigmaster, your comment is a bit dense and thus hard to penetrate.
As Jan said a week or so ago, ‘Paragraphs are your friends”
But I see that you are writing with a focus on Singapore.
I doubt that many folks reading here have much idea what is happening in Singapore.
So your comment is useful to fill in the Regional picture.
I know that the second wave in Singapore happened almost entirely
In the densely inhabited mostly male ‘non resident’ workers blocks.
With men from India, Bangladesh, Indonesia etc, housed in cheap
accomodation with 2& 3 level bunk beds jammed 8-9 in a room.
Maintaining ‘social isolation in such circumstance is impossible.
So once the virus was introduced it had a whole dense field of new victims.
And of course that sparked a wave of panic among the citizens of Singapore
Anxious to avoid being infected by these easily identified non resident workers.
What does this mean for the future ? Once again it tells us that the old global model
Flying or shipping in cheap of foreign workers to do low paid jobs is gone forever.
The dangers from pandemic disease for resident populations are too great.
Such workers will need to be screened and go through quarantine before being allowed entry into countries which have eliminated this virus.
And that increases the costs and lessons the benefits.
In general global international travel will be less of a feature of our lives in the future.
Save that a safe, effective & cheap vaccine is developed.
03
Ziggy
You may have something sensible to say but trying to get through you reader unfriendly slabs of words is just to much to ask.
I will stick to reading posts of those that paid attention in their English classes.
04
Tracking to zero – some States doing way better than others across Australia.
Still 500 active cases in NSW, down from 688 a week ago.
Vic: 53 cases a week ago, now 125, thanks to some mysterious circumstances at the ‘ruby princess’ meat works.
Qld: 63 cases down to 20; SA: 7 down to 2; WA 23 down to 7; Tas 53 down to 33 (still high due to the hospital out break April 10-20)
And across the ditch: 214 cases down to 122.
20
“Vic: 53 cases a week ago, now 125, thanks to some mysterious circumstances at the ‘ruby princess’ meat works.”
No further action needed. It’s ha lal and is therefore invisible.
30
Question.
Where has this Covid 19 spread unchecked by government lockdown,medical intervention and order?
What I am getting at,is there are places on this planet with high population densities,very little effective government and inadequate medical services..
Supposedly ideal breeding grounds for plagues and pestilence.
So where is the baseline for “natural spread” ,no preventative actions playing out?
This would be the nearest real world test of the pandemic modelling ..
Does such a place exist?
If not why not?
11
Iran
Italy
The USA
The UK
Italy
All of these countries did bugger all
And then finally were forced to act by the number of sick, the deaths & public panic.
Currently the following are doing bugger all still
Brazil
The Netherlands
Belarus
Sweden.
02
Thanks Bill but not good examples.
My question was regarding zero action,minimal interference in the virus running its natural course.
The placebo group if you will.
All those you offered up have government and healthcare systems,which while late to react,have taken action that would skew results.
21
Bill Maher suggests, “You can’t sanitize the universe”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28I5WyLp15o
11
Nick Stokes’s charts at https://moyhu.blogspot.com/ are well worth a look.
01
Since my eldest daughter has emigrated to Australia in 2009 (she is now an Australian citizen), my wife and I have been spending three months per year in Australia and this year was no exception. We arrived in Sydney on December 26 and flew back to Montreal on March 25.
I must admit I felt safer in Sydney than I feel now in Montreal. The awful truth is that as far as this pandemic goes there is not really a Canada anomaly but rather a (Province of) Quebec anomaly.
As of this morning Quebec (8.5 million people or about 23% of the Canadian population) accounts for 55% of COVID-19 cases; the death total stands at a staggering 2,786 or close to 60% of all Canadian COVID-19 related deaths. And the Montreal area where I live is the hot spot with well over 60% of total Quebec cases;
Think about those numbers for a second: Australia with a population of 25 million has less than 100 total deaths; in April, Quebec has exceeded 100 daily deaths on 6 occasions; in May, for the first 8 days, we’re batting 500 with 4 days out of 8 with daily deaths over 100.
So what went wrong? (1) The situation in nursing and retirement homes has been a total carnage and in retrospect that’s where we should have focused the efforts: isolate the weak and sick older people. (2) The December to April period in Quebec is called winter, and that period corresponds with significant vitamin D deficiency; winter is coming soon to Australia, but please, what you call winter in Australia is something for sissies and (3) Until about a month ago Canadian health authorities were not only indifferent to the use of masks but in many cases actually opposing their use; with all the Chinese and other Asians that were wearing masks in Sydney, I thought that this Canadian attitude was crazy; so when I boarded the flight to Canada on March 25, I had a couple of NK95 masks and 5 or 6 regular ones.
Hoping you find this Canadian perspective interesting.
20
Indeed. Sweden experienced a similarly distressing avalanche of deaths thanks to nursing home infections.
People just plain did not realise how infectious asymptomatic people were. Infected health workers went from nursing home to nursing home unknowingly spreading the disease through the most vulnerable population possible.
The difference in people’s perception labels the Swedes as Nazis though, and Canada as “cousins”, despite the same basic mistake causing the same basic outcome of unfortunate deaths.
I wish you good health Michel. Merci.
11
Die “From” or die “with” covid?
Elon Musk: We Need Better Data on Coronavirus Deaths
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKvCdmfCOoY
11
More bias! Where is the chart for Sweden? Lock down or no lock down, the charts are the same. Or, compare Colorado with South Carolina, about the same population (5 million), very different approach to lockdown – more deaths in Colorado that adopted the heavy hand. The whole idea of curve-flattening is guff.
11
More BS from another anonymous blow win
With no links
No evidence
But a big political agenda to push
00
Aaron, I’m used to the rolling bar to look at deaths/ day, but I now see that finger pointing at a bar tells the daily death number on the Swedish site. It’s a good site! Looked further and the IHME site accumulates data from Johns Hopkins University in the USA who coalesces data from I believe the World Health Organization. That tells me a lot right there.
Anyway, the IHME claims that the data is delayed and/or coalesced, and corrected as they move forward with more accurate numbers and updated forecasting. Many politicians in the USA follow the IHME, so the more accurate the info the better since the IHME site also shows future forecasting, but some semblance of a trend from actual data, or as some say…. arithmetic.
Here’s the logic of some Governors in the USA. Only 2 people can be in a motorboat on a lake, even if a family of 5 living together owns a boat. Only 2 allowed in a car at a time. Chinese donated drones are being used to to do surveillance of people in back yards to check social distance and actually bark commands. What else do the Chinese use these drones for to collect data. Politicians want to use phone apps to show your every move and every person you’ve talked to, and every person that person talked to, etc. on the premise it will save lives on a virus that has probably a 0.1 to 0.3 % fatality rate. We now know the most vulnerable should isolate, and do a better job in nursing homes. New York’s Governor until last week decreed CV-19 positive patients couldn’t be denied access to nursing homes causing over 4,000 estimated deaths so far.
What would Peter Ridd, Judith Curry, Roger Pielke Jr. have to say about tracking their associates by phone apps when they were forced from Universities and/ or attacked daily for skeptical AGW views. How could they ever protect skeptical students when the connected politicians and pro-AGW university professors are all known to be crushing any skeptical -AGW opposition. All over the USA doctors are reporting that they are being forced to report all deaths as CV-19 related. Why, because the hospitals get extra funding from all the Trillions of dollars being slung around from a crushed economy based upon incorrect Ferguson models. Nobody will be held accountable for those Trillions. The hell with the science and accurate cause of death, money is involved!
And the illogical decrees go on and on in the USA as personal liberties erode. I don’t think anybody can deny that once Government takes control of power, excess taxes, etc., they never let go of it. You’ve seen that in renewable boondoggles, wasted taxes for Green New Deals, burned landscapes through poor forest management versus centuries old burn practices to clear underbrush, etc. In the USA environmentalist would rather see 1,000,000 acres burn than responsibly log for timber or do controlled burns. I’ve read the same here for Australia.
Just be careful what you wish for related to this virus, because you just might get it, and probably won’t like it. I’m following the data, respecting the virus, and will see where this goes, but I’m actually less afraid of the virus as a healthy adult than I am of the societal changes taking place that will harm for decades along with an enormous unpaid bill.
Sorry, I’ll get off my antiviral soap box now.
00