Somewhere in Victoria. | Image by veronoumea
It’s just another day in the death of investigative journalism
Notice the way the words shift. The ABC told us tonight that a new “Atlas” will “chart” the temperature for wine growing regions in Australia, as if charting is what we do when we are taking a blind guess with a broken model at the future. Once upon a time, atlases mapped things that already existed. The ABC and Uni Tas are just staring right into the future. Neat advertising eh?
Makes you wonder why we bother with thermometers.
The ABC News is like reading Harry Potter. The Hunter Valley is not predicted to get warmer, it’s “destined” to. Gone are the qualifiers: where once people might have to adapt, now they’ll be forced to. In gushing form, the ABC quotes shocked farmers saying “It’s pivotal”, “a line-in-the-sand body of work” a “wow moment” and a “world first”, as if Tasmanian scientists discovered the magical Marauders Map itself. It’s also like no group on Earth has ever tried to predict the climate of wine regions before. If the ABC interviewed a skeptical farmer it would have broken the camera.
If Uni of Tas hired an agency to run an advertising campaign, they couldn’t have done better than the prime-time, supposedly “investigative” segment on what we used to call news.
Pity the poor viticulturist who changes grape varieties, irrigates, or buys up a cold farm.
There is no mention of “uncertainty”, “projection”, “estimate” or any hint that there might be one living scientist in the world is not flat-out-drooling with excitement.
The ABC could have interviewed one of the greatest viticulturalists in Australia, but they wouldn’t like what he has to say. If you know someone growing wine, tell them to read John Gladstones, Wine, Terrior and Climate Change. Gladstones wrote The definitive text for the industry 30 years ago. He’s very much the industry guru, and not surprisingly — also a skeptic.
Watch this story on ABC TV’s Landline at 12:30pm or on iview if you can bear.
Save the children, and our Australian wine industry. Sell The ABC.
New Climate Atlas report shows how climate change will affect Australian wine regions
A world-first research document about to be released has detailed how Australia’s famous winegrowing regions will be forced to adapt due to climate change.
It charts an 80-year course for climate change, including temperature, rainfall, aridity and frost for each of the country’s 71 wine regions.
Lordy! They’ve discovered data from the future!
“It’s pivotal; I think this will be a line-in-the-sand body of work,” said Hunter Valley viticulturist Liz Riley, one of the first industry insiders to analyse the data.
With the Hunter destined to become three degrees warmer by 2100, with more intense and frequent heatwaves and more rainfall, Ms Riley is concerned for the health and safety of workers who will need to endure hotter, more humid conditions during the harvest season.
Shh. Nobody mention how reliable models are with rainfall OK? As in, “skillless”.
All eight wine regions in Tasmania will become hotter, some will become drier and others slightly wetter, but the water availability will be reduced, measured by an aridity index.
Who knew that all the human emissions since Ned Kelly was born made no detectable difference to the last 178 years of Australian rainfall. Not the ABC.
“It’s going to get hotter and drier in most Australian regions,” said lead author Tom Remenyi, from the University of Tasmania’s Climate Futures Group.
“That warming, drying trend is because as the temperature increases, there is more evaporative demand, so there is this drying pressure on the landscape which would require it to increase in rainfall to maintain the same balance we have at the moment.”
May the Lord have mercy on farmers who rely on UTas:
They do not have any irrigation, but concede they may need to in the future if, as the data suggests, the region becomes more arid.
“To have really detailed numbers and projections for the next 20, 30, 40, 50 years, it’s hugely beneficial,” Ms Lipscombe said.
“We can make really concrete plans on what we need to do and how we need to approach the next few decades.”
The PDF is not even available yet. We must wait til Monday to read the legal fineprint declaring that they will take no responsibility for losses or damage caused, or lives ruined, or investments wrecked.
Things people need to know about climate models:
- Models can’t predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale
- Climate modelers redo models and “predict” more, less, some, different or same rain
- 178 years of Australian rain has nothing to do with CO2
- Australian – Asian rainfall linked to solar activity for last 6000 years
- Megadroughts in past 2000 years worse and longer
- Climate Models are 100% right except for rain, drought, storms, humidity and everything else
- Models get cloud feedback wrong, but *only* by 70W/m2 (that’s 19 times larger than the CO2 effect)
REFERENCE:
, Rollins, DA, Love, PT , Earl, NO , Bindoff, NL and Harris, RMB 2020 , Australia’s Wine Future – A Climate Atlas , University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/32250/The Australia’s Wine Future project – led by Dr Rebecca Harris from the University of Tasmania
A perfect opportunity to add or talk briefly about Botrytis as a possible fungal solution to the wine problem, and further, as a proven non expert on wine or grapes and only slightly as a possible expert on the weather.
Fungal solutions:
From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botrytis_cinerea
“Botrytis cinerea is a necrotrophic fungus that affects many plant species, although its most notable hosts may be wine grapes. In viticulture, it is commonly known as “botrytis bunch rot”; in horticulture, it is usually called “grey mould” or “gray mold”.
The fungus gives rise to two different kinds of infections on grapes. The first, grey rot, is the result of consistently wet or humid conditions, and typically results in the loss of the affected bunches. The second, noble rot, occurs when drier conditions follow wetter, and can result in distinctive sweet dessert wines, such as Sauternes or the Aszú of Tokaji/Grasă de Cotnari. The species name Botrytis cinerea is derived from the Latin for “grapes like ashes”; although poetic, the “grapes” refers to the bunching of the fungal spores on their conidiophores, and “ashes” just refers to the greyish colour of the spores en masse.”..
61
Why do we employ academic dingbat ‘experts’
To read in their crystal balls & predict
What the weather will be like in 2100 ?
Better to go to the real experts
And ask some genuine witches !
🙂
94
Academic dingbats is about as accurate a description of the utter crap peddled in the program in question. This was just more commercialisation of climate alarmism that has hitherto been in the ‘climate research’, ‘renewable energy’ and similar areas of our economy. Insurance and mercghant banking are now fashionable targets.
That said, the utterly arrogant spruiking of up to 100 year ‘forecasts’ of locality weather is almost beyond belief. In terms of exploring the future, the sort of crap being peddled is in the same category as voodoo and spell casting.
Over 2000 years ago the Roman Stoic philosopher Lucretius wrote a scathing verse regarding the lunatic and utterly treacherous human sacrifice by Agamemnon of his own daughter in order to secure fair winds for the Greek fleet to make its way to attack Troy. The sacrifice was of course the recommendation of the priests, the ‘experts’ of the time.
Have we really only come this far from that?
131
Ahhhh but Witches
Crystal ball ‘experts’..
🙂
54
Witches, crystal ball experts?
How about Dr David Dilley’s (Global Weather Oscillations) Global Temp Cycles?
He doesn’t predict Global Warming up to the year 2100 but the total opposite – Global Cooling for the next 130 years – let the vigneron’s adapt to that.
41
In the Gippsland valley, my domestic grape vines were never better in the early stages of growth this year, and lots of rain. More rain than i can remember. Then in the peak of summer, there was more rain and not enough hot days and the grapes did not ripen consistently or fully that i could see. This year started looking like the best year and rapidly became the worst year simply due to the crop not ripening fully. As i said in another comment, i am not an expert on grapes. I did however observe the weather in the valley of Gippsland Vic Au. Grapes i did eat were generally on the sour side and not as sweet as earlier years.
Hope we get more hot days next year when the grapes ripen.
70
I live nearby your region. I have temperature records for three years from my local weather station. Second year running the average high and low temperatures have dropped. Here are the yearly averages:
2017-18: High = 19.5; Low = 9.7; Rain = 846mm
2018-19: High = 19.3; Low = 9.5; Rain = 858mm
2019-20: High = 18.4; Low = 9.3; Rain = 1010mm
Method:
BOM daily highs and lows;
sum of highs for year, sum of lows for year;
divide each sum by number of days.
No changes to the equipment of which I am aware.
180
Nb
Your records obviously need some skilful adjustment.
The rainfall record should be reducing by half each year whilst the temperatures should be increasing by 2 degrees each year. Please fix them immediately.
300
I’m leaving that up to the BOM. It has the necessary skills base. I merely use addition and division. I understand that differentiation, quadrilateral equations, advanced statistics, computer programming of the highest order (see https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/ ), several voyages to the arctic and antarctic, and attendance of multiple conferences in exotic locations are in order to get the correct result.
360
Vineyards, weather and government/media interactions and crystal balls.
An interesting amalgamation of effects to demonstrate the insanity of modern life.
Why should anyone bother working when we can borrow more money from China and all live on Social Security.
KK
61
Please remember that climate models are as good as coronavirus models.
72
No cancel that idea !
It’s B/S
The climate models use super duper computers
And crystal balls
With ‘trained” computer nerds
To scare us.
But with the Corona virus infectious disease
All we need is some arithmetic.
23
Looking to buy 100 acre Hunter Valley vineyard for $1000/acre and take my chances that the Atlas Shrugs.
Climate will change. Always has. Mankind doesn’t affect it enough to matter.
160
John
You might be interested in reading le Roy laduries epic book on climate in which he notes the advance and retreat of glaciers and also a highly detailed examination of vineyard productivity around Europe over hundreds of Years.
It’s called Times of feast, times of famine’
Weather changes season by season, year by year, decade by decade, then starts again in a random fashion. Very difficult to see mans hand in any of this, as many of the glaciers did not exist in roman times yet were crushing farms a thousand years later only to see them retreat again.
So you may overall be lucky with some good Years and some bad and man will have very little influence on it, other than the skills needed in making a good wine in sometimes challenging conditions and a great one in good conditions . Good luck!
180
If only the professor had the atlas …
Kangaroos with penchant for cool climate wines cost Canberra grower more than $80,000
“The annual wine-grape harvest is now nearing completion across the region, and most farmers are hailing the overly dry seasonal conditions as ideal for growing quality fruit.
Ms Gordon and her husband, the Nobel prize-winning astronomer and Vice-Chancellor of the Australian National University, planted their pinot noir vines 18 years ago at the beginning of the millennial drought.
“It is the first time I have ever had kangaroos eat grapes,” Professor Schmidt said.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-31/kangaroos-with-taste-for-wine-cost-canberra-vineyard-thousands/9603746
50
Why don’t I feel sorry for Professor Schmitt and missus. I’ll remind him that the Sun rises in the East.
80
Reality bites the academics !
They didn’t want to shoot the roos in the vineyard.
Why don’t they build a Roo exclusion fence.
And keep the roos out ?
52
No child born today will know what a grape is.
281
Maybe, but they’ll be fed manure and raised as vegans by mushroom eating fruits.
160
No, and they wont know what farm animals are either… but they will know how to grow cockroaches big as turkeys – so everybody gets a leg at Festivus.
131
Festivus for the rest of us!
Can’t wait for the Airing of Grievances. 🙂
91
James
Sounds like centipedes as big as turkeys might be more appropriate?
61
Nah… too gamy.
61
lots of leg pieces, though !!
91
I dont know about the ‘world first’ claim, as there was a University of Melbourne PhD on this topic in 2006.
Their crystal ball must have been a bit hazy as it only went to 2050. I did spend a bit of time looking at it, but really, despite the fact that they use the phrase “…Scientific consensus proposes that the global climate is changing due to increases in the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere…”, it is deserving of more study than I have time for.
100
YAWN !
61
Yawning Andy ?
Well you’ve been busy all week fighting the good fight.
Nice to have a Sunday as a day of rest….
🙂
And here in Mt Barker it’s marvellous cold wet cloudy windy Winter’s day.
(Completely unpredicted by our clueless by BOM who said it would be dry)
The creeks are flowing
Great day for a walk in the rain
Contemplating Nature’s capacity to totally confuse
The BOM’s nerds and computers and even their radar !
21
They need to use one of the CHIMP6 models to really get scary
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/13/climate-scientists-step-up-the-climate-emergency-narrative/
Amazing what happens when you add another chimp to the process. !
81
I thought you had to have an infinite number of monkeys to write a fairytale
40
But it takes an infinite number of attempts.
Come on, you are an engineer, you know how it works. 😉
31
As Jo subtly points out (without any hint of satire or sarc) the Soothsayers premonitions of dire warming might be a tad off.
Considering the continuing low sunspot activity and prolonged cold spells the vintners should be looking into the ice wine market, with records of grapes exploding on vines during the LIA they shouldn’t wait too long to harvest.
What is it with people that blindly follow a movement soon develop a Cassandra Metaphor for all things nature?
100
‘Considering the continuing low sunspot activity …’
Yeah but the low sunspot activity is not showing up on the ground, do you have anything tangible to get my teeth into? For example, during the winter of 1780 the Hudson and East River froze solid. I think it was solar cycle 3 and it had sunspots, so lets focus on precipitation in south east Australia and look for a cold link.
There is the paleoflood of 1750, discovered by Sully and Snowball who looked at the distribution of the Black Box Gum in the River Murray valley.
‘Radiocarbon dating of samples collected from existing gums revealed that the trees were of a modern age, with establishment in the last 250 years. This gives us an indication of the possible timing of the pre-historic flood of around the year 1750.
‘The researchers also undertook a survey to obtain the heights of individual trees at their bases. This showed that the palaeoflood reached a maximum height on the River Murray at Overland Corner of 18.01 metres, making it greater than the largest flood on record, rising 2.11 metres above the 1956 flood height.’
30
I think these soothsayers might be descendants from Hanrahan.
Curiously we have some evidence of change in the wine industry in Australia. An early (French) wine maker Edmond Mazure made sparkling wine at Kanmantoo**. I don’t know of anyone growing grapes there these days. That was in the years when farmers were growing wheat almost as far north as Lake Eyre. Coonawarra started as a fruit growing area. There are vineyards in the lower Flinders Ranges now and someone tried his luck near Alice Springs in the 1980’s. Tasmania was thought to be too cold for grapes until “Global Warming” became the fad.
**Very successfully; made from semillon grapes and attracted favourable notice in France, so much so that the big Champagne makers funded a research program in Bordeaux where they grew semillion for 2 winemakers for 10 years. It ended when phylloxera wiped out the vines.
60
Gladstones revised and up-dated his book in 2011.
And grape growers would do well to check the accuracy of previous predictions, such as those in Bordeaux who planted a cold resistant clone of cabernet sauvignon after the 1962 frosts. That was after predictions of coming colder weather. Years later they had to grub them out as the fruit never seemed to ripen.
40
UK winemakers could be disheartened by the lack of global warming in coming decades.
61
“What have the Romans ever done for us?!”
[insert your inebriated answers * here]
40
Graeme he irrigated using water from the Bremer river
Which flowed most of the year then.
But in the 1940’s the Bremer was contaminated with Acid leachate
From the BHP Pyrites mine at Brakunga upstream on Dawesly Creek
Exit the vineyards
Exit also the dairy farms on Dawesley Creek also.
If a vigneron had the money now
The vineyards could be re-established
Using water from the huge pipeline t
That delivers Murray river water to Adelaide.
The pipes goes through Kanmantoo.
21
According to the “Xsperts” climate change can also be gauged by the lack of snow – in Adelaide.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-11/weather-record-reveals-more-snow-fewer-heatwaves/12339414?fbclid=IwAR2K_gHZ-naSw9LuDrwN8wE-mqOiW1A4NURGtbT57SOmyRQ0RP_knBQq6Ys
20
T’was cooler then Rob.
Has been warmer since
But now getting cooler again.
I’ll post when we get snow here in the Hills of Adelaide.
To judge from the coldness of this Winter 2020
It should be soon.
21
Oh the naiivity, the ignorance nd lack of perspective these young researchers display. Jaw- dropping banality on display. Oh, the pain..
40
But seeking filthy lucre from zealous propaganda
Pumped out by the ABC.
They seek avoid obscurity and the resulting poverty.
Not an honest way but still just a way to make a living !
They have kids to feed and mortgages to pay off.
🙂
10
Computer generated models are no different to computer generated movies where the characters are not real. To match reality there needs to be a lot of fudging and make-believe. Given in climate modelling they have repeatedly failed to match reality, they have only one other option; change history, which as many of us here know is exactly what they have done with the data. It’s called a scam, an is certainly not science. In any other area the people involved would be behind bars by now, apart from the move makers since it’s just for entertainment purposes so fake worlds can be generated at their leisure for an audience that desire to escape the real world for a while.
41
This is incorrect.
There is real physics behind computer generated characters. The ones with realistic effects obey the laws of physics. The computer generated images of racing cars is so physically real that they are difficult to distinguish from real cars.
Climate models are nothing more than an X-order linear equation that has an upward trend correlated to rising CO2. The X is an increasing number with each CMIP release to account for the swings in temperature needing to be accounted for as time goes by. Each release has a few more orders and tuning variables to cater for the swings in temperature since the last release. Modelling the 2016 El Nino will require a couple more orders since CIMP5.
I have looked at the precipitation and evaporation data for climate models based on the CMIP5 input criteria and their reality is that they produce negative atmospheric water. The climate models are unphysical.
51
Rick, you forgot to mention that not one of the computer models has ever been validated, especially since all they do is shovel garbage in and expect something other than garbage out.
51
Climate models can never be ground-truthed and developed with direct observation so are permanently destined to be the equivalent of cosmology — a widely speculated upon foggy BS story, based on partial and dubious indirect ‘observation’, and many untestable theories and interpretations, guided by unrecognized extreme ignorance and copiously funded explosive bouts of hubris. So very unlikely to be of any human worth, over an extended period of time, and utterly useless over shorter periods, as well. Unless you’re looking for public money to fund your research and mortgage, or are a politician on the make, or wish to sell a lot of google ads via incessant click-baiting the public with fear campaigns. In those areas climate models are peerless.
32
‘The map is not the territory’, or
the model is not reality (as read in a link yesterday via a WUWT article).
21
Hi Jo. Did you mean ‘terroir’ in the title of Gladstone’s book? Though I daresay a terrior is a useful animal to have about if there are vermin!
40
ter·roir
The complete natural environment in which a particular wine is produced, including factors such as the soil, topography, and climate.
30
… pronounced tɛrwar
10
Our house vines had a wonderful crop this year, sweet and tasty. We are in Nth Central Vic about 400m asl, with more rain after Christmas and somewhat cooler summer. There were still remnants of grapes on the vines yesterday while I was pruning them. Managed to burn the prunings before the rain came last night.
60
Annie, when are you going to install air conditioning in the vineyard ?
40
No need… 🙂
30
Ah … saving on power!
Not wanting to stall (overload) all the windmills.
10
They had me at the Hunter being destined to become three degrees warmer by 2100. Three degrees? That’s an awful lot, isn’t it?
30
Sounds like they predict a return to Minoan temperature levels or even higher which would be an excellent outcome (unless it be that more earthquakes are its companion phenomenon).
60
Minoan? Like ladies going around topless all the time? How will the men get any work done?
40
Oh, not that old plaint again.
The work would still be done … men build the buildings and roads. All of it. It was the same back in the Minoan times.
You forget Salome: most men get to intimately know their mother’s ones right after birth.
20
The Margaret River region in WA produces some of Australia’s finest wines. A noted winemaker in that region, Erl Happ, has penned quite a lot on climate. Some of his story is here:
https://climatechange1.wordpress.com/about/
In his words:
This link is the most recent post on the blog:
https://climatechange1.wordpress.com
This is what Erl has arrived at:
For some balance, I would like to see ABC interview Erl Happ. He might shed some different light on what is ahead for the global wine industry with regard to climate change. He is not being paid to come up with alarming views but his livelihood does depend on understanding how climate evolves.
81
Despite Erl’s forecast for a cooling planet, NOAA managed to headline the following:
https://www.noaa.gov/news/may-2020-tied-for-hottest-on-record-for-globe
51
That’s an excellent link Rick
Erl Happ know of what he talks.
He’s been a farmer there for 30 odd years
Unlike the Uni of Tas ‘experts’
Or Prue Adams here in SA on the ABC.
11
This is old news, and was widely reported in 2016
As to producing a map, why not? Global warming is occurring, grapes take years to establish, new locations will be needed, a map therefore is a useful tool.
316
It’s so old you can catch it on Landline today at 12.30pm Peter !
70
You shouldn’t produce a map if you have no idea. A few vineyards in cooler areas have had bad years recently because of late frosts, in Australia.
So far, this year
“Staff at UK vineyards were working around the clock last week as wine producers saw some of the latest frost ever experienced, with one vineyard suffering damage for the first time in 46 years.”
Virginia US vineyards also suffered heavy loses a few weeks ago from late frosts.
70
Do you understand what is meant by climate?
210
WE do indeed understand what the word climate means Peter.
However you do not.
Fantasy tales of future weather in 2100 AD is not science nor does it constitute ‘climate’
They are just fantasy tales.
Not even science fiction.
91
I personally think Earth will be cooler in 2100 AD than 2020.
I have more faith in Dilley, Abdussamatov etc than the IPCC’s GIGO computer modelling.
But what’s the point of putting on a bet?
Unless my great grand kids collect the winnings.
70
Yes Peter, according to you its when we have a day over 35ºC in summer. !
Anything colder is weather.
41
The current “climate” is giving more late frosts in several parts of the world.
What is so hard to comprehend ?
21
Why do you ask Ditzy? You have nothing but want to look intelligent?
I actually took over the family vineyard for a few years. A bad year happens because of weather, not climate.
BOM stuffed me up in the final year. They predicted scattered showers of less than a mm up to an hour before widespread rain of 20 mm.
50
So they were planted when they thought that the climate was good for growing vines and the experts were telling everyone global cooling was on the way unless we repented.
20
You shouldn’t produce a map if you have no idea. A few vineyards in cooler areas have had bad years recently because of late frosts, in Australia.
So far, this year
“Staff at UK vineyards were working around the clock last week as wine producers saw some of the latest frost ever experienced, with one vineyard suffering damage for the first time in 46 years.”
Virginia US vineyards also suffered heavy loses a few weeks ago from late frosts.
50
“new locations will be needed”
You have no evidence that is the case.
New areas are always being tried for different grape varieties anyway.
… so again.. a pointless comment from Peter.
31
“Global warming is occurring”
Thank goodness for the totally natural slight warming since the coldest period in 10,000 years!
As you have shown, it is nothing to do with human released CO2
… but to do with solar changes and cloud changes.
I wonder if they looked a Portugal’s grape harvest data…
… which clearly shows that around 1945 and 1860 were WARMER than now in Portugal.
31
“a map therefore is a useful tool.”
You might be able to find your way out of La-La Land !
Certainly a fantasy “climate” map is totally useless, because its almost certainly WRONG.
31
‘ … a map therefore is a useful tool.’
The map is based on a false premise, that CO2 is causing global warming, so we need to seriously look at alternative forecasts. Scientists now accept that the hiatus in world temperature falsifies AGW hypothesis.
30
A French vigneron has set up a successful winery on a tropical island in the Pacific. Vin de Tahiti
They get two vintages each year, in May and in December. Bring on global warming!
70
Bruce, when I first read about this vineyard on Rangiroa in the Tuamotus – either here on Jo’s blog or Anthony Watts’ – I attempted to persuade my boss to shout her tour guide/drivers a couple of weeks’ research & development & tasting in paradise, purely for the purpose of furthering our knowledge of viticulture in the southern hemisphere, you understand.
I’ll let you know if she ever changes her mind. BTW Rangiroa translates to ‘vast sky’, Rangi being the sky (god) and roa meaning long or vast. Chur-chur!
60
Great news Bruce! Maybe we’ll catch up next time to enjoy a drop or two!
Cheers,
Mike
20
I wonder if Prue Adams actually talked to some local grape growers & Wine makers here in SA ? I doubt it.
But there are plenty who could have commented.
A mate who grows organic grapes and makes organic wine said to me in February
That the Summer was weird and his grapes completely confused.
He had two different grape varieties which usually are harvested 6 weeks apart
Being harvested almost together – as determined by baume or sugar level.
Why ? A hot dry Spring due to the drought
With a cool wetter Summer from January onwards as the drought started breaking here in SA.
31
She’ll put it down to Climate “Change” (still CO2 induced, of course)
20
There appears to be a rainfall link with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.
‘ … when the IPO warms the central Pacific, the impact of El Niño and La Niña on Australia appears to wane. This helps to explain the long-standing mystery as to why an El Niño or La Niña event does not always have a profound influence on Australia’s climate. Conversely, when the IPO cools the central Pacific, El Niño and La Niña events have a stronger influence on Australian climate – its rainfall, temperature, and even wheat crop yield.
‘The IPO appears to not only modulate the impact that El Niño and La Niña have on Australia – it also appears to modulate the strength and vigour of the El Niño and La Niña events directly. So these results have implications for climate prediction in other countries.’
Scott Power (BoM) 1999
50
‘when the IPO warms the central Pacific”
But the sun’s insolation does not vary that much EG.
So whence comes the energy to warm the Central Pacific ?
21
It might be geothermal in origin, but requires further investigation into why the IPO flips. It would be nice to find an astronomical cause.
40
The direction of our planet’s winds and sea currents is determined
By the direction that the planet spins as it moves around the sun.
But the El Nini/ La Nina Oscilation ( like the IOD )
See these winds and currents go against that ‘Determining factor”.
That means a huge amount of energy is needed to overcome the normal directions of wind & sea currents.
Where does this huge amount of energy come from ?
There is a huge elephant present and it seems like scientists are completely ignorant of it’s presence .
If it is Geothermal in origin then this energy source would be relatively stable from year to year.
But the ‘flipping’ nature of the El Nino/La Nina indicate an irregular & erratic source.
What do you think EG ?
11
Ian Wilson thinks ENSO behaviour is related to lunar activity, but the jury is still out.
20
Thanks EG.
And links for that idea ?
21
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/06/can-the-moon-change-our-climate-can-tides-in-the-atmosphere-solve-the-mystery-of-enso/
20
The IPO flips every 20-30 years.
http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/environment/environmental-reporting-series/environmental-indicators/Home/Atmosphere-and-climate/interdecadal-pacific-oscillations.aspx
20
Thanks EG for the link.
Before my time at JoNova.
20
It seems like only a year or so ago, in the warmer years 2018 and 2019, that they were talking of the models predicting a 2°C increase by 2050. However given the temperatures this year, the increase would need to be about 4°C by 2050, so they have gone for 3°C by 2100.
20
Meanwhile in the real world, outside the air conditioned and heated,
12 story ABC high rise at Collinswood in SA
Where Prue Adams lives,
The world is cooling markedly :
https://electroverse.net/nasa-2001-low-solar-activity-global-cooling/
21
I’m far more likely to watch a children’s fantasy than an organisation which is unwanted and ignored by the vast majority of Australia, where 90% resent paying a dollar to ABC to preach socialism and greenie idiocy. The purpose of parenting is to keep children healthy and happy, and especially to prevent under 18s making permanent life-long errors before they’re responsible for their own path and mind. Before they come to independently understand that very perverse, sick and malignant people control Australia’s State TV and internet ‘content’. The air of the ABC now seems to be to try to distract from this and hide that, for as long as possible.
$1.1 billion snake in the grass, to ‘mind’ the kiddies.
61
Alarmists can’t gauge future times,
Nor map out the choice vineyard climes,
When true experts best know,
Where and when they should grow,
To achieve great results from their vines.
50
There’s quite a bit of anti ABC commentary in the general media. Generally from those in the privately owned media who are envious of the ABC because of their taxpayer funded basis. You will get those defending the ABC. They very often say that we should preserve the ABC because they do such a good job in the bush. They very often also mention Landline as one of the programs performing a great job in rural media communications. I live in regional Australia and I say quite categorically that the local commercial TV and radio stations run rings around the local ABC. They do local issues much better and do the emergency warnings eg bushfire alerts as well. I gave up watching Landline years ago – they always present agriculture and rural affairs from the left side of politics, or worse still, as some quaint enterprise. You know – farmers in denim overalls sucking on a stick of grass type stuff. For me they never present the business of agriculture – which is how it should be portrayed, not as a past-time. This junk climate modelling story fits into their narrative like a glove.
160
Is it politically correct to say simply that landline was ‘feminised’
And so the stuff that farmers do
Takes second place to the stuff that women are interested in.
BTW Ross, I also gave up on Landline around 2103..
There is the odd story which I go & watch if I read about it.
But mostly I have better things to do with my time ..
30
I have been watching Landline today.
All the presenters so far are women.
And all are greenies as exemplified by the “News” section
Which focussed on mistreatment of livestock.
No longer a farmers program at all.
As for the Climate projections by these Tassie climate researchers
They are relying on BOM ‘data’
And the BOM can’t predict the climate 3 months out
Never mind 80 odd years.
Utter BS ABC
31
I used to enjoy Landline around the turn of the century when I was up here on a Sunday ( before living here permanently). I tuned in when we first returned from England and couldn’t believe how disappointing it had become. Never bother now. Life is too short to waste on rubbish.
60
That’s an important point Ross.
30
All eight wine regions in Tasmania will become hotter. Do they know what hot is in Tassie?
According to BoM Tassie has warmed by 1 °C in the last 100 years.
Hobart average temperature in Jan/Feb ranges from 13-22 °C with monthly rainfall of 35-40mm. Launceston 13-25° C.
Should I buy a vineyard in Antarctica? Or at least the far south of NZ.
60
“If Uni of Tas hired an agency to run an advertising campaign, they couldn’t have done better …..”
I don’t understand, that is what they did! Today’s media don’t do journalism, they basically copy and paste press releases. If that is not the work of an advertising agency I don’t know what is.
60
Again the truism, which sounds more like a pre-scientific superstition, that ‘hotter means drier’.
As if heat only affects land and not oceans or lakes simultaneously. As if we have forgotten the water cycle of evaporation and precipitation.
I’ve been hearing this ‘hotter means drier’ claim for decades and always thought it is childish.
Why do supposedly qualified scientists keep repeating it? Are they confused by their own jargon? Lost in some sort of matrix of credulousness?
30
The answer to all your questions is yes, its a diabolical mess.
Antarctica is the driest continent on earth.
10