It says something about the mortality rate of Covid19, and also about the burden on the healthcare sector
According to the CDC, there have been 103,643 cases of Covid-19 in US Healthcare workers of which 543 have died. That makes the death rate per infection a hefty 0.5% among these working age people. Obviously some of these people have co-morbidities, but would be under the retirement age.
We would hope US Healthcare workers are reasonably well tested. They may have a higher death rate because they are subject to a higher viral load and working under long hours in a stressful situation. But they also (presumably) wear PPE and are trained to use it.
An Amnesty International report estimates at least 3,000 health care workers have passed away around the world, with the highest tally from Russia (545) and the UK (540).
Elsewhere, the countries with the highest numbers of health worker deaths are USA (507), Brazil (351), Mexico (248), Italy (188), Egypt (111), Iran (91), Ecuador (82) and Spain (63).
These numbers may be underestimates. The Guardian has a list of US Health care worker deaths, and lists the names 787 frontline workers.
Medscape has a memorial page for over 1,000 doctors, nurses and professors around the world. Not all of them were over 60. It’s not hard to find younger examples:
Óscar Miguel Cabrera, 28, Third-Year Oncology Resident, Internet personality on the YoMedico blog, Hospital Eugenio Espejo, Quito, Ecuador
Karla Dominguez, 33, Registered Nurse, Hospitals of Providence–Memorial Campus, El Paso, Texas
Monica Echeverri Casarez, 49, Michigan, surgical technician, Michigan
Not the flu
People on the frontline must also die of the flu, but the number is small enough that there don’t appear to be lists in memorium. Indeed, papers on occupational deaths of Health Care Workers don’t even mention influenza. About half are likely vaccinated.
Who would want to work like this for months?
It’s easy to assume pandemic decisions play off economic costs against the death tally, but it’s much bigger than that.
While lockdowns are unbearable for some businesses, roaming viruses are unbearable for the health care industry. There is a burden that makes “suppression” unsustainable. It’s not just the medico’s health, but the threat they may post to loved ones. Doctors are writing up wills just in case, and sending their toddler age children to grandparents for extended stays. I’ve spoken to retired doctors who are concerned about being called up if an outbreak stretches medical services. In March, I talked to medical personnel who were having discussions about whether it would be ethical to retire early — they were torn, juggling what they owe patients with what they owe their family. People with high risk partners were living in different parts of their own homes. Many were quietly envious of home lockdowns, commenting that the safety of that sounded appealing.
The only situation that solves both problems at once is “Elimination”. Happy doctors. Happy businesses.
In Australia doctors want to eliminate this virus, not live with it:
Dr Aaron Bloch:
Hundreds of doctors and nurses at Melbourne hospitals have contracted COVID-19 or been quarantined …
“As a frontline doctor in Victoria’s fight against the virus, my view is that the rate of health care worker infection is unsustainable,” quarantined Melbourne doctor Aaron Bloch…
From my own perspective — widely shared by my colleagues — suppression cannot win. Coexisting with COVID-19 means lives lost, repeated lockdown and gripping uncertainty, which will take a giant toll on our collective mental health and undermine the confidence necessary for economic recovery.
Suppression has failed because it underestimates this virus, it overestimates our ability to control it, and it fundamentally misunderstands human nature.
We escaped the initial feared tsunami, but do not underestimate the ongoing physical and emotional toll. Many of us have not had a good night’s sleep in a long time.
***
There are a quarter of a million new infections around the world today, and a new study with headlines that claim to have found six different “types” of covid with six clusters of symptoms. These don’t appear to be different viral mutations, so are likely the same virus causing different clusters of symptoms. But that helps identify the higher risk patients earlier. Hope you don’t get the abdominal pain kind with confusion which appears to be the worst sort.
***
Photos: Healthcare workers who have been lost — from The Guardian Memorium List.
Beware: the famous Flu death tally is “highly adjusted” and Coronavirus is still 10 times worse
Our healthcare system was totally unprepared going all in on globalization and fiscal policies that promoted maximum capacity into our travel and sporting events. Profits above any thoughts to a possible Pandemic.
We currently are now seeing the effects that has generated with our politicians behavior and spending to try to get back to the same.
This will never happen as everyone now is more aware and more alert.
44
THIS IS A POCAST WORTH LISTENING TO A CIRCULATE.
So many points this Dr has mentioned in this Heartland’s podcast, have been be mentioned during this covid lockdown.
But typical, those point have been ignored by the media, only reporting the group think mantra.
https://soundcloud.com/user-694711047/covid-19-and-patient-rights-guest-kris-held-md
Coronavirus and Patient Rights
Host: Christina Herrin
Guests: Kris Held, M.D.
As COVID-19 continues to surge across the population, many Americans are finding they lack the right to try medicines and treatments that could potentially save their lives
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Thanks for posting. Worth listening to.
43
Please explain how this podcast could be so urgent/important for Australians, New Zealanders and some English?
It’s made for completely different medical, legal, constitutional and social conditions and assumptions. We are not Americans. Some of the advice given would not work Down Under and would create big trouble in our countries.
We’re weeks ahead of you lot.
We had 3 new cases reported by yesterday from Afganistan, Pakistan and India. All three were confined in managed quarantine giving 25 active cases.
64
G’day S,
He shows what can work.
But in “Some of the advice given would not work Down Under and would create big trouble in our countries.” , which bits are you thinking about?
I agree that our bureaucracies are different, but that to me means that some change is necessary within them. We need the Zelenko cure. Now.
Cheers
Dave B
71
Sophocles, I find it interesting and patients in Australia don’t appear to be allowed to use HCQ either. I thought people in the US have more freedom that what we do.
The blog is not just for Australians.
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Notice how readily doctors in the US resort to litigation. Just in passing the speaker states that two state governments are being sued for a particular reason.
CV19 is such a deadly virus that there is incredibly high risk of litigation over maltreatment of patients. The employers and insurers of all medical practitioners would be aghast if they learnt their doctors were prescribing drugs that were not approved for the purpose. Given that CV19 is a new virus, there is no proven treatment. Doctors should only be prescribing drugs that are proven for the specific condition that presents. For example, there is an emerging shortage of drugs that are required for patients on ventilators because of the high demand.
Unless a doctor has evidence with regard to the safety and efficacy of a particular drug for a given condition, they would be acting unprofessionally to prescribe it. Clearly the landscape is tilted toward big Pharma with the resources and linkages to medical research groups to fund drug trials. There have been trials of various drugs, including HCQ, but it is not clear to me and, more importantly, prescribing doctors if any have shown benefit that is statistically significant; even Remdesivir did not give a statistically significant benefit.
Eradicating the virus is simply the best approach. Any form of treatment is an admission of community failure on the easiest solution. Just avoid contact with other people until the community is virus free. It takes 30 days to eradicate the virus from any community. Countries that have high social currency get rid of the virus quickly. Countries with privileged, self-important people will have the virus until most have been personally impacted by the virus. (Refrigerated trucks outside hospitals in the USA appears to be the threshold where people take notice and appreciate the difference between what they want and what they actually need to survive)
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An example of law-fare as we are familiar with in Australia. As used for stopping mining projects on flimsy evidence, the cost of defence is a deterrent and punishment, the costs of the offense are met by the taxpayer.
The claim of ‘no proven treatment’ is a method used to stop competition for the products of Big Pharma.
(Massive order iven to Gilead, massive win for the shareholders -who knew?, marginal benefit to sufferers)
The threat against the medics stops the use of treatments that are likely to work and that the patient will have given informed consent for.
But this state control is one more strike against individual rights in favor of big-business, government and big union control.
The above post misrepresents -the threat is not doctors suing, it is collectives suing doctors who are using their knowledge of medications and patients condition to help the patient.
20
Yes and I’ve mentioned a few times about other avenues, except vaccines, are being forcibly shut off.
This should make people angry – they are being denied the right to proper medical care.
I noticed the predictable column from an economist ( the same one who “knows” all about climate change and now apparently is a Covid expert ) – the MSM the drum beat for a globalist decreed vaccine-only cure is being pushed again.
140
Also from the UK:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-deaths-cases-local-lockdowns-back-work/
Cool…we can avoid the globalist agenda of shoving everyone into the vaccine “solution”…..
“The preliminary results of a clinical trial suggest a new treatment for Covid-19 dramatically reduces the number of patients needing intensive care, according to the UK company that developed it.
“The drug SNG001 has been found to prevent Covid-19 becoming more severe in around 79 per cent of cases, the Southampton-based biotech Synairgen has said.
“The treatment uses a protein called an interferon beta which coronavirus patients inhale directly into their lungs via a nebuliser, where it provokes an immune response.
“Synairgen is yet to publish data from the trial, but indicated that the results were “very significant”.
70
And…..couldn’t happen here too , could it?
Coronavirus is too big a temptation/excuse to push out Big Gov onto the population it seems.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-deaths-cases-local-lockdowns-back-work/
“Questions over test and trace privacy
“Privacy campaigners say the coronavirus test and trace programme implemented in England broke a key data protection law.
“The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) wrote to the Open Rights Group (ORG) to concede the scheme was launched without an assessment of its impact on privacy, the group told the BBC.
By the way, anyone know what happens to all the covid test ( DNA ) samples taken during covid testing? Its a saliva swab in effect.
No one else seems to have noticed the covid testing is in effect a mass DNA collection of the population as well….?
60
At the risk of repeating myself, I would just like to see Zelenco’s protocols given a fair go. True, they haven’t yet been proven in any clinical trials (but he has published results, currently in preprint) because no one is actually doing clinical trials according to his EXACT protocol but since his protocol is about as harmless as anything in medicine can possibly be, AND because there is nothing else for either prophylaxis or early stage infection, what harm can there possibly be in giving it a go?
1) His treatment for EARLY STAGE infection, as soon as infection is suspected even before test results are confirmed, is HCQ, Zinc and Azi. Early stage treatment is vital, there are few options once the infection spreads to the lungs and a cytokine storm develops.
2) He has a prophylaxis protocol as well which uses an initial “loading” dose of HCQ plus once per week of HCQ thereafter. (Not sure if it also includes zinc but I assume so.)
Apart from the fact that some are against even testing this EXACT treatment because Trump’s experts supported it, I can see no legitimate reason why, in the absence of anything else, these protocols shouldn’t be at least tried.
Yes, there have been HCQ studies but as far as I’m aware all have deviated from his advice by either 1) administration too late, after the infection has moved to the lungs, 2) inappropriately high dose, 3) no zinc, 4) no initial loading dose with prophylaxis.
Beyond all that, these people in the present case are medical professionals. Let them make up their own minds. Elsewhere, don’t ban or restrict this treatment. It should be a decision between patients and their doctors.
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Morning David,
In this recent interview, he gave an answer, yes, to your question about zinc, and quite emphatically so. And he was asked about vitamin D (for which I was very grateful as I’d been wondering about that) and he said it was one of the first things he did(!).
…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEntfcBiW4k&feature=youtu.be
….
It runs for 52 mins, and is unfortunately rather disjointed in the recording, but still valuable. The link was suppled here in the last day or so, but I can’t say adequate thanks to the supplier at the moment.
Cheers
Dave B
80
Thanks David. I was the one that posted that link of Z’s latest interview. 🙂
51
Thanks D M,
I thought that was true, but had to go outside to fix my house water supply. Thanks for saving me the time to find that out, and also for the link.
Cheers
Dave B
20
All the frontline health workers should be being given, free, 8,000 to 10,000 IU of Vitamin D per day to keep them healthy. Watch their death rate disappear if that were done.
80
I agree David,
I wrote to the Health Minister, Greg Hunt 4 days ago, pointing out some of the problems with the Doherty institute ASCOT Hydroxychloroquine trial. I also suggested that they had wasted 3 precious months, dithering about and that they had yet to enroll one single patient in their trial. At a time when we desperately need some answers about the role of hydroxychloroquine there are none and it is their fault. Greg Hunt has not acknowledged my message.
Some one should test the ZELENKO treatment protocol and it may have to be Zelenko himself, but maybe also India. Indian physicians are apparently using hydroxychloroquine.
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Thanks Peter C. I also wrote to the Health Minister about two weeks ago and his office didn’t even bother to acknowledge receipt of my email.
It’s pathetic but it’s really far worse than that.
92
Jo
Regarding your a,nasty international report
The NHS employ no less than 3 million health and social care workers, that is one in ten of the entire working population of the UK
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/time-think-differently/trends-workforce-overview
These are very brave and dedicated people with some obviously more in contact with the public than others. My own daughter is a midwife.
The proportion who die is, fortunately, a lower percentage than in the general population, presumably because they use PPE and are aWare of the risks.
41
Whoops sorry, it read amnesty international when I posted it, must have hit a wrong key as it went.
My iPad just tried to change the name again for a second time, it obviously doesn’t like the work of amnesty.
100
If as an American you catch Covid by being forced to work in unsafe conditions, and you go on to infect a health worker, where are those much touted ‘rights’ that are supposed to underpin the American society?
521
Peter
Interesting point, I would imagine lawyers are rubbing their hands in prospect of some juicy earnings.
51
🙂
Lawyers seeking hospital tort
rubbing hands in greed really ought
be rubbing their hands in soap
for twenty seconds I hope
or their client’s work is for naught.
60
No one is being forced to work in the US Peter. It remains a free society where those rights you speak of still exist despite the endless attempts by Marxists to have them removed.
265
As an American, no one is being forced to work. You can quit if you want, collect unemployment, and on top of the unemployment get an extra $600 per week. The vast majority of office workers in NY area are working from home, with no Immediate plans to return to the office. What is deemed as essential services has continued working since day one. Of course if every meat packer quit and every nurse quit, you would have no food and no medical care. If you quit and someone takes your place, would you really expect employers, who are already in danger of “going Under” to pay 2 payrolls, one for the new hires and one for workers staying home ? Of course not, it’s financially a no go.
If everyone exercised an option to stay home, well I don’t really have to explain that one.
So far most companies have been very tolerant of workers who feel their health is threatened and want to stay home. How long will that last, no one knows.
They may be extra generous because of what Tony B mentioned.
Not sure what you mean by US touted “rights”…generally you have the same rights as The US, and most european countries. Personally, I don’t know of anyone who walks around toutimg about their rights….they’re too busy living their lives. Maybe that impression is one of those “shrimp on the Barbie” memes
162
The fundamental rights of Americans are enshrined in the Constitution and very hard to remove. That is what is unique and wonderful about America and why Marxists and other totalitarians hate it. Rights as they exist in other countries are enshrined in legislation and much easier for Marxists and other totalitarians, the destroyers of Western Civilisation, to have removed.
203
Poverty forces you to work in the USA, there is no retention programs to help, just look at the statistics on those missing their rent repayments.
If your local government defines your role as “essential,” you may have to comply with your employer’s wishes or risk termination – that is the government forcing you to work – AKA Meatpackers, teachers
According to Dallas News “If they call you back without taking any precautions, without educating you and your fellow employees, without appropriate social distancing — if they just call you back willy-nilly, then that can show reckless disregard,” – which applies to teachers, whom Trump is threatening at the moment.
Then you have security guards who are being killed by customers because the security guards dared to enforce the rules about wearing masks. The murderers stood on their ‘right’ not to comply.
The fact is that the poor are being sacrificed in America, with the encouragement of both the Federal and State governments.
Nurses can not work from now can they?
Are they compensated for the extra danger they face?
The selfishness displayed in the USA and with your comment is asstounding.
423
As always, the socialist/marxist meme of choices, but no consequences.
Your comments are truly underwhelming, Peter.
Based on a “gimme, gimme” culture, expecting pay for doing nothing..
… and an inbuilt lack of morality.
“poor are being sacrificed in America”
And yet, never a single complain from you of the poor and jobs for workers, being sacrificed by the greenie agenda..
… now why would that be !
141
unlike you, I do care. Smear away, but that’s all you can do
210
You seem to be good at avoiding reality…………The situation in the US is the same as in Australia.
Did all your doctors leave victoria during this recent outbreak..Of course not.
Did all your immigrant farm workers leave the fields in Victoria…Of course not.
Did you provide them with adequate protection in the fields so the virus would not spread…not really
“Nurses can not work from now can they?
Are they compensated for the extra danger they face?”
Read more, Talk less…it’s common knowledge nurses in the US receive hazardous pay during the corona outbreak. You could easily look that up before you talk nonsense.
“Then you have security guards who are being killed by customers because the security guards dared to enforce the rules about wearing masks. The murderers stood on their ‘right’ not to comply.”
There are 320 million people in the US, and your making a point about several incidents across the whole country where a few people got violent ..The vast majority of people in the US wear masks willingly, and if they see someone without one, they are asked to put one on. 99.99 percent of the time this happens without incident.
“if they just call you back willy-nilly, then that can show reckless disregard,” – which applies to teachers, whom Trump is threatening at the moment”
More crap Peter…where do you get your information from. I have several family members who are teachers..They are teaching remotely…Trump may desire for people to try to get back to teaching in the schools, but trump doesn’t automatically get what he wants or thinks…If the teachers union thinks it’s too dangerous, they won’t be teaching in classrooms. And as of now they aren’t and won’t be for the foreseeable future in the NY area.
This forced working meme is utter nonsense…..Most, and by most I mean the vast majority of corporations have ordered their workers not to return….most of them not even thinking about repopulating offices till after september…the vast majority working from home.
I know a lot of people who quit their job because they were afraid to work, don’t know a single one denied unemployment benefits with the addition $600 US dollars every week.
For a guy who lives in a country that for all intents and purposes hasn’t even begun to feel the effects
of a full blown corona infection, I can understand why your knowledge is supremely lacking.
Now let me guess…..The US, Spain, France, Germany,Italy, France, Brazil etc….are all stupid countries because they didn’t handle the virus correctly, only Australia, has the supreme intellect and human compassion necessary to handle this outbreak….OK I got it.
Respectfully, you really are clueless as to what is actually happening in the most severely infected countries.
Thankfully, I am aware that the vast majority of Australians don’t share your perverted interpretation of how countries are coping with the virus. If you want to talk about people who are really suffering and are offered no relief, look to South America, Mexico, and India and others. They need your compassion….most of them would wish to be here rather than the fate they await in their own country.
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Your points are well taken Steve S, but please be aware that the media in Australia is far more concentrated and restricted than in the USA (which is bad enough) and here in Australia our coverage on the actual situation in the USA is highly detached from reality. Every news piece on every news channel other than SkyNews (we have one TV channel left without severe left-wing bias), will never mention a fact if it supports Trump/GOP, and will twist any possible factoid which can be weaponized against Trump/GOP. In addition, selling fear and disunity seems to be a business proposition with 100 times more pay-off for these media corporations than actually telling the truth or at least attempting to be honest. As a result, the average Aussie wouldn’t have a clue about how a Covid-America is actually dealing with the crisis.
Unfortunately, many Aussies can’t form a view of other countries outside of what they are fed by the media, because they can’t experience these countries first hand. Only what leaks out here and there on the internet is of any use, and the Google algorithm makes sure that the average Aussie gets makeup tutorials and other such brain rot before they receive a link to something of value. Most alternative media on the net analyzing the situation deeper than the media also is long-form and requires more time than the average person can or could dedicate to understanding the reality.
We used to have something called the NEWS to prevent such perverted assumptions, but now we have the NEWS: Narrative Engineering With Screeching.
Repeat it with me:
20
The rights were waived.
As the Nurse from a private hospital in Florida found when she went into New York’s system run by your caring sharing type of Politicians and bureaucrats. You could ventilate anybody you liked without interference from nosy relatives and protected from litigation for malpractice.
Our Doctors aren’t running that risk. We emptied the hospitals and the General Practitioners are in many cases still doing their three days of work via tele-medicine from home. If you wish to have a face to face consultation, have your blood pressure or temperature taken, show someone your rash or just generally talk to someone who knows you and cares about you, you go to your local pharmacy.
60
Why the wailing and gnashing of teeth over American “rights” Peter F.? Besides being wrong, you aren’t here. What is your point and what is your motive? C’mon spill your guts!
30
Here is a new video on mechanisms by which C-19 infects cells. It is hypothesised that a new route to infection also exists. Interestingly, they mention azithromycin as a possible treatment. This is actually part of the Zelenko protocol. While it is an antibiotic it also has the ability to block C-19 from entering cells via the CD147 spike protein.
https://youtu.be/MUnTb3_mwTY
102
Whilst in the midst of the virus crisis in Victoria, I saw that vaccine trials had been started in QLD and SA. With this logic, we can expect these trials to include NT, WA and Tasmania in the next phase. The collective intelligence of those in government never ceases to amaze.
51
It is not safe in Victoria. No one wants to go near anyone else in Victoria to conduct trials. It is better to do them where there is no CV19. Victoria is the “Plague State”.
33
You cannot do Phase 3 trials where there is no virus. The higher the chance of getting infected the better a location it is to a trial – easier to get better data faster.
50
Aren’t these just phase I trials? In which case the aim is to make sure the vaccine doesn’t kill people which can be done in virus free states.
63
I assume the trials are voluntary, and are very well paid.
Now if I had the virus, I would not be a paid volunteer for a vaccine trial, but I would pay to get HCQ.
20
I would take anything from the CDC with a grain of salt.
Trump has ordered hospitals to bypass the CDC and send ALL COVID-19 patient information to a central database in Washington DC.
151
Oh! that CDC. They wouldn’t want data distorted for political purposes would they?
That health workers are dying in great numbers from COVID-19 probably does not take into account the CDC’s directive that anyone who is suspected of having the wide range of COVID-19 like symptoms should have COVID-19 on their death certificate.
110
I’m with you all the way on the corruption and ineptitude of the CDC (which is why I linked to The Guardian, of all places, which names and lists even more deaths of HCW).
As I keep saying Excess deaths show even with upreporting of deaths, the actual deaths due to covid are larger, larger, larger by half again in mass outbreaks.
49
I was honestly amazed that Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews broke form and did a great job, not the usual incompetence, friends of Daniel and misinformation approach and stonewalling but a reasoned, professional job of real administration in a crisis. I was prepared to openly admit he was doing a great job. I was completely wrong. And the cost is horrific.
And now he appears busy hiding which group was infected, who allowed it to happen, whether his tacitly approved Black Lives Matter march was involved, why Cedar meats was allowed to keep going and even double their staff for the big Eid market, whether the Eid was involved and why he hired the people he did and why they did such a lousy job. It was not that hard!
To blame this all on the ‘cunning’ of the virus is nonsense. It is the usual smarmy incompetence of the same person who has wrecked this state, all for political power and always to preserve and consolidate his position by looking after his friends and fringe groups. Every other state is fine. New Zealand is fine. People are out of lockdown. It’s not the virus, it’s Daniel Andrews. The Real Daniel Andrews was there all along, looking after his friends.
And because he didn’t do his job, over 5 million people are confined to their homes, many people on the front line are in crisis and lives are being wrecked. That’s the problem with leftist opportunistic governments, they look after every fringe group they can find and govern for them, not the people. A march for George Floyd? He was a violent lifelong criminal with many victims. And he was not a slave and we never had slavery in Australia. Utter leftist nonsense. Migrant groups have to live by the rules and mores and laws of the countries which give them food and shelter, not criticise, burn down, deface and attack their hosts. It’s this rampant sense of entitlement generated by the leftist press and supported by Daniel Andrews.
345
I assume my regular red thumbers think Daniel Andrews has done a great job. But then again that would mean they actually read something, which is unlikely.
156
Reportedly his position as leader has been greatly strengthened since Somyurek’s departure; certainly the CCP would be happy in that their man now sits at the cabinet table. Today the judicial inquiry charade launched to shield ministers from questions begins. I remain sceptical that the premier can brazen this out until the end of the month.
80
Around 1 in 200 infected healthcare workers dying, in a group that is being continually exposed so who is the 1? Young people dying of covid are rank outliers – bit like the people who die of wasp stings. Who are the rest? For years we were warned about that raft of medical issues banking up. Obesity, diabetes, diet, blood pressure, inactivity, alcohol/drugs, bulging aged demographic, and so on. We were not really in the best shape for a new virus but there will be more coming. My impression of health care staff is that they are not in the least immune to those things listed. I feel for them and I would have doubled their pay instead of the dole. Teeming populations with unprecedented mobility is viral heaven so a fundamental reorganizing of life would seem to be the prescription some are aiming at? Get ready for state premiers who never had the handle hiding behind Doctors in a new totalitarianism. The UN can’t believe their luck.
70
Matty wrote:
“Obesity, diabetes, diet, blood pressure, inactivity, …”
The Associated Press (AP) released a story with a photo that has been picked up by numerous news outlets. Photo credit: Nati Harnik
Search for:
Number of laid-off workers seeking jobless aid stuck at 1.3M
A photo from Omaha outside the Workforce Solutions office shows a dozen folks on chairs that look about to collapse under the weight of the job seekers. Photo has a dozen people and orange and white cones as markers.
30
This might be it;
sms:?body=Check%20out%20this%20link:%20www.stltoday.com/tncms/asset/editorial/239f4f0e-3a42-5a20-ac45-32cac757deaf
00
No go
10
That is the exact opposite of what should be done. The MOST IMPORTANT ACTION was to stop the virus at borders. Do not allow it into the general population.
If it did get into the general population then the BEST ACTION is to separate people while keeping them alive. This simply requires essential services and supplies functioning. Giving unemployed people money to survive is the easiest way to encourage them not to mingle. They only need venture out to get essential supplies and we have seen Australian supermarkets respond quickly and effectively to reduce contact in their stores.
Taiwan would not have given the compensation of their medical staff a second thopught. They knew they only had to do ONE thing well – Keep the virus out of the community. Do that and everything else is irrelevant.
62
We already have the ability to disable covid and its likely mutations while airborne or on surfaces with 222nm far UV-C, the sweet spot wavelength area that has such shallow penetration of tissue that it is safe for extended human exposure. https://physicsworld.com/a/the-potential-of-far-ultraviolet-light-for-the-next-pandemic/
This is not a new discovery, the initial work done at Columbia University Center for Radiological Research goes back to at least 2013. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0076968
Commercial production is already available, but none of the dermatologists, infection disease experts, chemistry and physics academics I have contacted seem interested and are unable to distinguish between the commonly used 254nm germicidal UV-C with its well known carcinogenic properties and the shorter wavelength now shown harmless to hairless mice for continuous exposure for over 40 weeks. https://www.ushio.com/product/care222-mercury-free-far-uv-c-excimer/
What other options can there be for large scale continuous disinfection in occupied public spaces such as care homes, hospitals, aircraft and public transport?
As Dr David Brenner said he has been losing sleep.
“I spend nights thinking — if this far-UVC project had started one or two years earlier, maybe we could have prevented the COVID-19 crisis,”.
101
UV-C is used in Israel to sterilise hospital rooms used for C-19 patients and elsewhere. The wavelength used is of the type that doesn’t harm skin or eyes. In some cases the lights are left on all the time even when patients are in the rooms.
https://youtu.be/gQpT3Fkx04M
102
The lamp being used appears to be a standard Philips T36G8 4′ germicidal with strong line output at 254nm and the normal ozone forming 185nm line output blocked by an internal filter. The “innovation” here is just their spatial modeling algorithm which calculates lamp placement to give relatively even power distribution over the room.
TUV 36W SLV/6 TUV T8 – Philipswww.lighting.philips.com › prof › tuv-t8 › product
Dr Orkin seems only concerned about ozone generation and ignorant of 222nm which does not generate ozone and does not have the eye damage hazard or exposure limitations which he mentions.
The apparent ignorance and lack of curiosity of the whole medical establishment as the daily death toll, 80% of which is in extended care homes, is enough to send you round the bend.
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The UK ‘NHS’ deaths include all sorts of inactive and retired people and people vaguely affiliated to the profession. As has already been pointed out, the death rate isn’t actually alarming compared to the general population. The number of people working in what could be described as NHS or care roles is a fair wedge of the entire working population. Not surprisingly nurses etc. also have underlying health issues/terminal illnesses and may not even be active when they die WITH CV19. e.g.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-52409765
Influenza isn’t greatly tested for, because no on is trying to play politics with it/scare people into compliance, which is why there are no lists in memorium. The reason you have lists for CV19? Just another symptom of the hysteria/political lionization.
Usually only a few hundred influenza confirmed deaths are registered in the UK each year, the realistic tally is calculated from general excess deaths. Simply pro-rata, in a reasonable flu year, clearly lots of ‘carers’ do die of flu, and it could easily be in the mid-hundreds. Although I could find no figures, campaigns to encourage staff to get the flu vaccination make it clear that flu is the biggest professional health risk, far greater than Hepatitis B etc. and it stated that even in a mild flu years 25% of staff can get infected.
The world over the same blindingly obvious fact is true, where the virus is allowed to do its thing, deaths rapidly drop to a trickle, it becomes entirely manageable. By trying to eliminate it, frustrate it, you are just creating a never ending problem of lockdowns and other measures and unnecessary economic damage and deaths.
In the UK, 17% more young people (under 49) have died of heart attack/stroke/aneurysm etc. since the CV19 scare, because they were too scared to get medical help for their symptoms.
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That’s only the current version of the virus and possibly reflects its origins, the older Chinese tourist. They had to stay well enough to make it out of the country.
In the Spanish flu, the first wave attacked only fit young men, 90% aged 20 to 50 and reflecting its origins in the WWI trenches. The second wave killed everyone and in 24 hours. And twice as many people died in the second wave. So all this business of predisposition is rubbish. It’s a mindless virus. It will adapt by Darwinian mathematical selection to the host which is potentially everyone, whatever is the greatest potential for replication.
And it’s not ‘just another flu’. 17,000 people a year die in the UK from flu, a distant echo of the original H1N1 virus of 1918. This time even forewarned and with extreme lockdown and total mobilization of forces and vast resources, 45 thousand have died from Wuhan Flu in Britain alone.
And world wide, “The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.” We passed that number in six months with 99% of all aircraft on the ground and the cruise ships in lockdown and tourism dead and borders closed and people locked in their houses.
It’s not just another flu. The Spanish flu pandemic killed between 37 and 100 million. We had WHO to protect us, it’s entire job, until WHO president Tedros Adhonom told the world in January it was not infectious, human to human.. Now why would he do that when he knew it wasn’t true?
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The death rate at which the virus stops doing its thing is where people in the community understand how deadly it really is. Taiwan, through experience, took zero deaths to take nullifying action. Italy took hospital wards overflowing to take decisive action. In the USA it is freezer trucks for the bodies outside hospitals. It is a test of tolerance before people make their own decisions and take action to stay apart.
The virus can be crushed in 30 days. So many places have demonstrated that fact.
Places with privileged self-important people with no social regard take a lot more convincing than places with high social currency.
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I place Dan Andrews and his colleagues in that group of privileged self-important people. Clearly two standards apply; those for mates and those not mates.
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Rick, the freezer trucks go and pick up corpses quite frequently and park in a loading bay, which was clearly visible in the video I saw. But for a passing pedestrian the loading of bodies would not be visible from the street,(just as it shoiuld be in a civilised society). For the news story cameras, however, and for maximum impact they had the truck parked outside in the street and brought bodies out and loaded them into the truck from road level.
Much like the time Anderson Cooper was standing waist deep in a deep gutter reporting on a flood while the cameraman and assistant were on the road in ankle deep water.
Also, the mass grave on the island in New York was sensational. Except some story saboteur revealed that it had been a burial ground since the time of the Civil War for destitute people, and in city as big as New York always busy.
“The Medium is the message”
Unfortunately the more we behave like sheep, the more the media people will treat us like sheep.
That’s what I baahlieve.
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Rob – At what point will you recognise the deadly nature of CV19 and take all the steps you can to avoid hosting it?
Where is your tipping point?
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I had the “Hong Kong Flu way back in 1970. Worldwide the estimate of deaths that I have seen on Internet sites is 1 to 4 million.
My recollection is that there was no media hype, no lockdowns, no social distancing and most importantly no economic destruction. And there have been other epidemics/pandemics in my lifetime, but never containment like this. The deaths in Oz are way to low to cause alarm, mostly very old folks. That happens all the time.
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So your threshold is somewhere between 1 and 4 million deaths world wide! We could be a month away from the bottom number (now at 609k) and year away from the top.
Then the deaths in Oz are way too low to cause alarm – so how many deaths will be needed before Rob Kennedy is ringing the alarm bells!
You clearly do not know any medical staff currently working in hospitals in Melbourne.
I personally know a medical doctor who started his rotation in the COVID ward of a large Melbourne hospital at the end of June. When he started, the ward had two verified COVID patients and 1 suspected. He was looking forward to an easy time.
That same hospital now has 2 dedicated COVID wards of up to 20 patients and another ward with a mix of verified COVID and suspected COVID. So almost 60 patient increase in the blink of an eye. These are in wards of normally 35 beds but reduced to 20 for separation reasons. So more than 100 normal beds in a single hospital in 2 weeks. They are not in the worst area. The worst hospital in the north of Melbourne was in overflow mode in the second week. A good proportion of those admitted are released in a day or two but a significant number deteriorate. NO ONE knows the long term impact of surviving CV19.
I can tell you that they are making triage decisions in Melbourne hospitals. If there is little prospect of surviving ICU on intubation then the patient does not go to ICU.
Anyone who downplays the seriousness of CV19 has an inability to analyse information.
The only easy way out was to close borders. Some countries and most Australian States have achieved success in doing that. Once it is in the community it takes 30 days to get rid of it. It boggles my mind that some people complain about avoiding gatherings for 30 days.
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Rickwill , Foxnews are reporting 82% of ICU beds are occupied in Victoriastan.
Haven’t been able to verify it on the other networks but it’s not a situation anyone wants to see if correct and with numbers increasing everyday .
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It was reported this morning that many hospitals in the north and the west of Melbourne were on bypass last night.
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I don’t think I answered your question.
Considering the number of people who die each day in Oz is about 450 per day, (160,000 or so per year)I would be scared if the daily rate from Covid19 was 45.
Death rates get scary when you have Sir Douglas Haig running a war – 20,000 in the first day of the Battle of the Somme in 1916.
Haig: “Really? I’ll telegraph London to send more men. Oh, pass me the champagne please.”
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What you clearly do not get is that the difference between 3 per day and 45 per day is is just over a week if no action is taken. It takes two weeks to get a response from any action. So if you wait till deaths are 45 per day before it reached your threshold it will be at 1000 per day before that action achieves a result.
My tolerance is zero deaths. It is very easy to stop the virus. Anything less is incompetent.
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You may very well be right Rick. I honestly don’t know, but Dan announced today(with a straight face) that there were more 3 deaths – one woman over 100 years of age , one over 90 and one over 80. Even if they died of Covid19 as the main cause, which is unlikely, their deaths, no doubt sad for their families, are normal and not unexpected at their ages. I have not seen any reports of middle-aged or younger dying in any notable numbers.
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Rick you said,
Our “easy” option was a very narrow window of opportunity which I believe was deliberately sabotaged by the W.H.O. and their collaborators by disinformation, and the opportunity was missed. Nothing will be easy now and while those affected may mourn the dead, the real agony for the people of Australia has just begun and as an older person I feel a great foreboding of evil times ahead, together with a sorrow for what is to come.
Why do I (I’m not alone) say this? I read Bob Katter’s history book a couple of years ago. “An Incredible Race of People.”
https://www.amazon.com/Incredible-Race-People-Katter-Bob/dp/1742665810
In it he explained a lot about the Great Depression and its effect on Australia. While other nations were able to drag themselves out of the economic mire, we called in an expert.
Sir Otto Niemeyer of the Bank of England advised Australian governments to pursue a deflationary economic policy and honour their debt repayments.
Ted Theodore (Federal Treasurer) and Jack Lang (Premier of NSW) favoured a Keynesian policy to use government spending to break out of the depression. That was rejected by the Commonwealth Bank and Australia was put in the debtors prison.
So for ten years Australia and its people endured a miserable existence, which Katter described well. The USA under Franklin Rooseveldt and other nations endured a much shorter agony. Our misery was needless and of couse when WWII started suddenly the banks issued money galore and we were back in business.
I feel we will be reliving that scenario soon. The Commonwealth Bank used to be great. An extremely capable person in the bank was able to make sure Australia financed our effort in WWI and was able to pay off the debt in the early 1930’s. Australia is a very resource rich country and quite capable of doing this by creating and backing our own credit, overseas bankers say we can’t and our politicians are very obedient to experts – always.
By the way, that slogan: “we are all in this together” is a blatant lie.
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Rob,
Too right mate;
“we are all in this together”
Yes, all in the Shi ite together.
How did we let this happen, and just to affirm the hold, Victoria is spending large quantities of future money to test everything above ground that moves on the off chance it may come up with the occasional “case” of CV19.
We can beat this.
National CV19 death toll?
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MrGrimNasty, that the death rate is similar in the infected people outside the medical profession is exactly my point. Are we happy about a 0.5% mortality rate in working age people? One that’s up to 10% in cases over 80?
And if so many docs are dying of the flu, why are there tallies for Hep deaths and other infectious diseases in the occupational hazard, but not even a tally for influenza?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3371777/
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Got to agree with the gist mr grim.
my daughter is a paramedic in the nw of england. They had a scare and a spike earlier in the year but have had zero covid deaths in the entire region for over a week. She reports many mental health issues related to the lockdown. This is all anecdotal of course. One thing I know for a fact.. A large extended family covering all generations and most of the country and we dont know of a single case, let alone a death.
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For rational thinkers, there are multiple issues going on.
1) Government lies. Experience directly relevant to this group is the lie propagated about anthropogenic global warming.
2) Government advisors lie. They get paid handsomely for the options they give to government. No more opinions get asked for if they are not what the senior public serpents or politicians want to hear. Working in Canberra for a government agency about 15 years ago I personally witnessed this. The going rate for “consultancy” from the big consultancy firms was then $400 per hour per consultant, and there were dozens of them ($550 per hour today taking inflation into account). Not for weeks, not for months, but for years at a time. If they gave an opinion the Minister didn’t want, then no more lucrative contract work.
3) Many government medical advisors haven’t seen a real patient or practiced medicine in years if not decades.
4) Don’t forget Trump Derangement Syndrome, an incurable condition that leads to immoral behaviour and also results in refusing to look at any treatments as suggested by Trump’s experts (e.g. the Zelenko protocol followed exactly).
5) Related to 4), the Left using this plague to create maximum chaos and economic destruction to help them achieve their goal of a “reset” of Western Civilisation and the introduction of their glorious Marxist utopias. They keep talking about “the post COVID era”.
6) C-19 is achieving 5) far more effectively and quickly than the lie of anthropogenic global warming ever was.
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Yes. Some on the left will use and abuse the pandemic to increase control.
1. Just because the left do something is not proof that it’s 100% wrong, even if it’s usually a good guide. (Only the data matters).
2. So don’t give them any excuse to wreck anything. Eliminate the virus.
There are two situations where we have to give up a bit of freedom in order to get more in the long run. War & Pandemic.
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The Victorian Police union has decided to start doing what it should have been doing four months ago and man the two quarantine ho
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Nicotine craving is a problem, but our boys in blue already have the situation under control.
‘A returned traveller has been charged after allegedly trying to flee hotel quarantine to have a cigarette.
‘The 28-year-old Queensland man was completing 14-day mandatory quarantine at a hotel on Macquarie Street, in Sydney’s CBD, when he was allegedly spotted trying to leave his room by security guards about 2.35am on Sunday.
‘Police said the man was ordered to return to his room, but refused, then allegedly attempted to bolt out of the hotel via the lift.’ Daily Mail
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No Smoking Area!
That’s just cruel.
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I’d find a way .
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Its a cruel and unusual punishment.
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Check the picture
“……..but it gave action-man Daniel Andrews headlines and something to say at a press conference…………”
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/07/but-it-gave-action-man-daniel-andrews-something-to-say.html
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In the rest of the world the standard social distancing spacing seems to be 2m / 6ft. In Australia it is 1.5m. Does anyone know why?
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because they are making it up as they go along.
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To be inclusive and not discriminate against shorter people with shorter arms? And it is a minimum distance. And allows more 80% more people in a shop. Talking from 10 metres away is also acceptable and outside sneezing distance. There must be an ISO standard.
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You are right TdeF and I believe that many PhD aspirants will be engaged in writing theses for years to come on what the optimal distance is after sudies in pubs and clubs. Why do I say this? Because I was attending an awards ceremony a few years ago where a lovely lady got her PhD after studying the degree of Irish culture in New Zealand’s Irish pubs. Possibly she touched on sectarian issues also by statistical analysis of who drank Guiness and who drank Murphys.
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Two years ago I attended an RMIT award ceremony. Like so many, it is now a University. Melbourne is stuffed with them, mainly with foreign students. A pull through for immigration.
Anyway 200 Phds graduated. Some were tragically funny. One received a PhD for studying the optimization of Halal distribution by trucks in Australia.
I well remember when PhD really meant something for nine years work when First Class Honours were not enough to get into a course and Melbourne University graduated 12 at a time. And people failed. And where is the world class innovation in studying Irish culture in New Zealand pubs? Or is that it?
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I think RMIT made a mistake by calling itself a University. There are so many of those.
They should have distinguished themselves by calling themselves MIT (Melbourne Institute of Technology)!
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There was a wonderful British documentary on how the good fathers of a city started a technical school. It became Mechanics Institute. Then a polytechnic. Then a university. And soon most of the people were philosophers who had opinions on manufacturing. So thirty years lather the good fathers decided they needed a technical school.
But this is far worse, predicated on Gough Whitlam’s belief that everyone should have a free University degree, regardless of interest or ability. So now we are drowning in them. And I notice Adelaide University has set up in downtown Melbourne to get access to all the students and their cash. And Deakin and Monash and Latrobe and Victoria and ..
It the main business of the city, blocks of it.
And now they are all starving for cash. And will want handouts to keep going.
Mistake? No, it’s a money game and the Vice Chancellors are on salaries like $30,000 a week. Plus all the other perks for the rest of their lives. University? No, a money printing machine. From the same people who covered the country with windmills, blew up power stations and could not keep people under supervision in hotels. Was that too much to ask?
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I still think it was a mistake for the RMIT to call themselves a University.
They had the chance to be a world class Tech Institute like MIT and CalTech. MIT and CAlTech graduate real world class useful graduates.
Instead RMIT University chose to adopt all the pseudoscience subjects that you alluded to.
Who would swap a degree from CalTech for a degree from Victoria or RMIT University?
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Maybe, but if you are up to your belly button in a foetid swamp does it make much difference what the name over the front entrance says?
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It’s not hard to find younger examples:
First example is from Ecuador. The headline on offer is “Death Rate amongst infected US healthcare…”
Spoiler – Ecuador is not the US, so if people are willing to quote poor Oscar as their lead then I would suggest it actually IS hard to find younger examples.
Ecuador, I am reliably and sadly informed by people who still have immediate family living there, is suffering because of long term socialist government corruption preferred to paint ‘HOSPITAL’ on the outside of buildings rather than actually ensuring money was spent outfitting them with proper equipment.
Also bemusing is the claim that Victorian medical professionals believe we need to eliminate the threat, not live with it. Lockdowns do not eliminate. They delay and at best hope. They are hiding under the bed and hoping the nasty outside world just goes away and may work fine in petri dishes and text books. In the real world however it is not Reasonably Practical to hide everyone under their beds and hope the virus we die in the ENTIRE WORLD and the only way to eliminate it as a risk to human lives is to ensure the virus no longer has valid people to infect.
Immunity now, or lockdowns forever.
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Mudcrab,
I wasn’t aware it was illegal to mention the rest of the world in a post with the US in the headline. You didn’t follow the link I posted did you?
Spoiler Alert: Here’s some US deaths under 60 years from the letter B.
Earl Bailey, 45, Registered Nurse, Broward County, Florida
Glenn Barquet, 50, Physician, Invasive Cardiologist, Mercy Hospital and South Miami Hospital, Miami, Florida
Jenni Claire Bartolome, 45, Registered Nurse, Emerson Health and Rehabilitation Center, Emerson, New Jersey
Don Batayola, 41, Physical Therapist, New Jersey
Jeffrey Baumbach, 57, Resident Nurse, St. Joseph’s Medical Center, Stockton, California
Edward Becote, 51, Porter/Transporter, The Brooklyn Hospital Center, Brooklyn, New York
Roxanne Bent, 48, Med-Surg Nurse, NYP Brooklyn Methodist Hospital, Brooklyn, New York
Theresa E. Berbano, 59, ED Nurse, Montefiore Health, Bronx, New York
Angeline Bernadel, 52, Nurse, West River Healthcare Center, Milford, Connecticut
Danny Bolima, 54, Nurse, University Hospital, Newark, New Jersey
Linda Bonaventura, 45, Nurse, Wildwood Healthcare, Indianapolis, Indiana
James Boudwin, 67, Family Practice Physician, Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital, New Brunswick, New Jersey
Mark Leighton Bowen, 54, Registered Nurse, Highland Care Nursing Home, Queens, New York
Sean D. Boynes, 49, Pharmacist, Greenbelt, Maryland
Derik Braswell, 57, Hospital Staff, Elmhurst Medical Center, Queens, New York City
Brittany Bruner-Ringo, 32, Nurse, Silverado Beverly Place, Beverly Hills, California
Patrick Buchannan, 33, Certified Nursing Assistant, Indianapolis, Indiana
Kevin Bundy, 22, Paramedic, Mercy Fitzgerald Hospital, Darby Borough, Pennsylvania
Irene “Rene” Burgonio, 54, Hemodialysis Nurse, NYSNA Member, Fresenius Kidney Care, Brooklyn, New York
Virdree Burns Jr, 59, Nurse, Former NY Department of Sanitation Worker, Wellcare, Queens, New York
Victorian medical professionals will be rocked that you are “bemused” about their understanding of infectious disease and keen to know more about the theoretically unproven “immunity” you seem to know exists.
Luckily if you go to hospital they are too professional to care that you called them cowards “hiding under the bed”.
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How do you score two red thumbs for simple facts? This is a tragic list. A 22 year old paramedic! Life had not started.
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The red thumb is like a Cancel button. Thoughtless, illiterates or woke drongoes.
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TdeF,
I haven’t “thumbed” any of your comments here, but you raise the issue of the 22 year old paramedic.
Previously we were given the heart rending story of the young European fellow in China who caught CV19 and passed away. Another poor innocent victim.
It was later given out that he had a strong urge to drink plonk, if I remember correctly, during his “recovery”.
If we are going to be given individual examples, and statistics, of the power of CV19 it’s important to have all relevant information incorporated in the report.
Material supplied by the Guardian and Amnesty International may be need to be double checked twice, or is that being redundant.
The fact that Australia is paying for PhDs of no earthly use to the nation just shows how distant the concept of Ethics has become from our daily lives.
A PhD based on the distribution of Very Special Meet is likely not alone in the “Useless Pile” held at the national archives in Canberra.
KK
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you called them cowards “hiding under the bed”.
Strawman. Quote the exact passage where I use the word coward.
Expected better from you to be honest. If you don’t have a valid counter point there is no need to invent words. The correct response would have been to state that you completely disagree with my analysis and conclusions and find it disturbing that I continue with my – clearly differing – arguments. Nope. Invented an insult. Disappointing.
Also you now clearly admit it was very easy to list more people, yet you didn’t. It is misleading and, in context of the original argument, suggests you are attempting to support the original argument with unrelated facts. We are, I am sure you will agree, in a situation of multiple differing opinions put forward by multiple different people in relation to the topic at hand, and most of these people are willing to provide secondary information in support of their arguments. Ask yourself, in all honesty, if you should be carefully linking your topics and quotes to avoid confusion, or jumping between sources with clear degrees of separation.
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Mudcrab. c’mon. Stop digging.
I did quote you, exactly (read my comment again, notice the ” “marks). Do you really want to lecture me about insults? These are your words on the people who’d risk their life for you:
“Victorian medical professionals …. They delay and at best hope. They are hiding under the bed and hoping the nasty outside world just goes away…”
And after that you want to tell me how to do a science debate “without” valid counter-points?
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MudCrab,
Would the people listed in the Spoiler alert be considered as statistical “outliers”.
Twenty out of?
The full list would be interesting.
KK
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One of the young female workers whose photograph included above, had “Pre-Diabetes” suffered from migranes before contracting CV19.
That was the first one I checked.
What are we doing here.
KK
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[Duplicate]
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Can lock down eradicate the virus?
1969: man catches cold after 17 weeks isolation at South Pole.
for the winter of 1969 at Adelaide Island Base, one of the British Antarctic Survey stations. During the preliminary observation period, after 17 weeks of isolation, upper respiratory symptoms occurred in one man and then spread to half the Base complement over the next week in the manner of an infectious disease. No virus had been artificially introduced at this time, and the outbreak was unexpected.
1976: flu outbreaks in healthy young adults after 8 and a further 12 weeks of isolation at the South Pole.
Two distinct mid-winter outbreaks of respiratory tract illness (RTI) occurred among South Pole Station personnel during the winterover period of 1976. One outbreak began early in May eight weeks after total isolation began, the second occurred in August and September after 20 weeks of complete social isolation. Sequential sera collected from 16 of the 18 subjects wintering at South Pole during 1976 were tested by hemagglutination inhibition for antibody against parainfluenzavirus types 1 and 3. Serologic responses were detected against parainfluenzavirus 1 and 3 antigens during the outbreak that occurred in May, and one subject showed a response to parainfluenzavirus 1 in September. Serologic responses occurred in both symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects and were chronologically compatible with the observed illnesses. Throat swabs collected both routinely during the winter and during each outbreak of illness and maintained at -70 C failed to reveal the causative agent when inoculated into cell culture at the home laboratory the following year. Outbreaks of mid-winter RTI and serologic responses in adult subjects isolated at South Pole Station suggest persistence of parainfluenzavirus in the human adult. Confirmation of this observation will require recovery of the virus during outbreaks of RTI within this isolated community.
1978: flu outbreaks in healthy young adults after 10 and a further 19 weeks of isolation at the South Pole.
Persistent parainfluenza virus shedding in healthy young adults occurred throughout the 8 1/2-month winter isolation period at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station during 1978. Two episodes of respiratory illness were observed after 10 and 29 weeks of complete social isolation. Throat swabs collected both routinely, and during each outbreak of respiratory illness, were directly inoculated into cell cultures. Parainfluenza virus types 1 and 3 were recovered from both symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects throughout the winter. No other viruses were obtained by these efforts. The presence of parainfluenza virus in these subjects long after the accepted incubation period for viral upper respiratory illness, and when the introduction of new virus to this community was impossible, suggests its persistence in man.
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Careful Stoichastic! You could be locked up for promoting such a vivious health heresy in Australia.
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Vicious not vivious
00
Stoichastic:
In the microbiology lab I did research in, the best way to preserve a virus indefinitely was to put it in the minus 70C freezer (or liquid N2).
Welcome to Virology 101. Cold preserves viruses. No better place on Earth to get extended intermittent outbreaks of seasonal colds than Antarctica eh?
The theory about infectious miasma is 100 years out of date now. Viruses don’t just magically appear.
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It shows you that a virus can survive forever on a very cold surface. For some reason people think cold kills chemicals and a virus is just a chemical, perfectly preserved at -50C.
In normal room temperatures with moderate humidity, a virus has days, not weeks.
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Jo, TdeF
Are you suggesting the living areas of South Pole research habitats are kept at -50 to -70C?
Or are you suggesting that despite having human habitable areas of 10-30C, the inhabitants
from these South Pole facilities were in the habit of touching -50 to -70C surfaces (I guess
going outside?) and then their (or someone else’s) faces? That somewhere along the line,
someone was outside and sneezed on an outdoor surface and that someone else later touched that
same surface, bringing the virus inside?
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However it happened a few times and the tacit proposition that there are no viruses in Antarctica is obviously wrong. Clearly they make it there. Perhaps on the outside of packaging
in storage. On machinery. Doors. Surfaces which have not been touched for months and have been frozen. Something brought in from the store. Whatever. Who needs a refrigerator in Antactica when even the summer temperature is -25C, colder than most freezers.
The only reason for surprise is the underlying notion that nothing can survive in the cold. And that is completely wrong.
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According to this study, only 12.2 percent of American adults are metabolically healthy. I wonder if this was considered in comparing global figures of health workers. I am sure the US health workers don’t look like the ones you see portrayed in Hollywood TV shows.
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Health workers usually have compromised immune systems due in part to having had vaccines which through the adjuvants that lower the body’s immune system to enable the vaccine to do its work temorarily leave the person vulnerable. Maybe if the vaccinations are compulsory the person should self-isolate for a couple of weeks and rest. (I recently saw a news item where pediaticians were saying that newborn babies would be better off not being breast-fed until a few weeks after the first lot of vaccines were given as the immunity provided by the colostrum interfered with the immunity provided by the vaccines. There’s a very telling tale!). Another reason is probably elevated stress levels of health care workers who do shift work and/or long hours. Medical interns have a higher than average suicde rate for example.
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Some interesting detail there.
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Reading that actually left me nauseous!
To think that there are medical “professionals” who would consider disallowing/withholding the natural immunity transfer and benefits of breast feeding in order to give artificial “immunity” via vaccinations is frankly and literally sickening.
When did the practice of “medicine” become so divorced from our natural state?
How do these monsters think humans have survived so long without their tender ministrations?
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I thought medical workers had relatively good immunity to a lot of infectious diseases since their immune systems are constantly challenged by pathogens and they develop immunity. Obviously not for C-19 however. GP’s tend not to get sick very often but when they do they get VERY sick.
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For years I have perused the obituaries in the largest daily state newspaper. I started noticing that health care workers tend to die before retirement age. I’ve seen this going on for years, long before Covid came on the scene.
Since Covid, however, the same newspaper almost never gives the occupation in the obituaries of people younger than retirement age. For the elderly who are way past retirement age, they generally do give their occupation.
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Check out bus drivers. They seem as a group to make it into ripe old age. Developed immune systems.
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Actually Health Care Workers have a safe working environment!
Jo posted this reference.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3371777/
Health care workers are actually in a safe occupation. Their mortality in the workplace is less than the USA worker average.
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The following uses Friday’s data from two days ago (the global date is 17th of July, 2020 within Worldometer), it negates most weekend lag influence in the data. I’ve filtered it to remove countries with less than 75 new cases per day, and/or less than 750 active cases, and all have more than 1,500 total cases.
I sorted them by the rate of fastest daily spread (the column on the far right):
New Cases | Country | Active Cases | Total Cases | Total Deaths | % Died | % New v Active (Daily Spread %)
139 … Benin … 789 … 1602 … 31 … 1.94 … 17.6
583 … Japan … 3,392 … 23,473 … 985 … 4.20 … 17.2
190 … Zambia … 1,251 … 2810 … 109 … 3.88 … 15.2
425 … Australia … 3,002 … 11,235 … 116 … 1.03 … 14.2
275 … Congo … 1,958 … 2633 … 49 … 1.86 … 14.0
421 … Qatar … 3,148 … 105,898 … 153 … 0.14 … 13.4
2,841 … Chile … 21,378 … 326,539 … 8,347 … 2.56 … 13.3
124 … Luxembourg … 965 … 5,409 … 111 … 2.05 … 12.8
447 … Ghana … 3,513 … 26,572 … 144 … 0.54 … 12.7
169 … Austria … 1,393 … 19,439 … 711 … 3.66 … 12.1
378 … Madagascar … 3,305 … 6,467 … 54 … 0.84 … 11.4
593 … Algeria … 5,461 … 21,948 … 1,057 … 4.82 … 10.9
2,379 … Iran … 22,776 … 269,440 … 13,791 … 5.12 … 10.4
405 … Canada … 4,141 … 109,669 … 8,839 … 8.06 … 9.8
34,820 … India … 360,094 … 1,040,457 … 26,285 … 2.53 … 9.7
8,934 … Colombia … 95,215 … 182,140 … 6,288 … 3.45 … 9.4
389 … Bahrain … 4,161 … 35,473 … 124 … 0.35 … 9.3
13,373 … South Africa … 154,607 … 337,594 … 4,804 … 1.42 … 8.6
181 … Morocco … 2,102 … 16,726 … 264 … 1.58 … 8.6
101 … Lebanon … 1,175 … 2700 … 40 … 1.48 … 8.6
509 … Germany … 5,985 … 202,345 … 9,160 … 4.53 … 8.5
327 … Singapore … 3,849 … 47,453 … 27 … 0.06 … 8.5
541 … Uzbekistan … 6,525 … 15,607 … 79 … 0.51 … 8.3
98 … Croatia … 1,192 … 4,137 … 120 … 2.90 … 8.2
194 … Gabon … 2,404 … 6,315 … 46 … 0.73 … 8.1
6,406 … Mexico … 83,003 … 324,041 … 37,574 … 11.60 … 7.7
926 … Turkey … 12,507 … 217,799 … 5,458 … 2.51 … 7.4
298 … Bulgaria … 4,112 … 8,442 … 297 … 3.52 … 7.2
1,619 … Oman … 22,445 … 64,193 … 298 … 0.46 … 7.2
2,023 … Iraq … 28,060 … 88,171 … 3,616 … 4.10 … 7.2
392 … Serbia … 5,610 … 20,109 … 452 … 2.25 … 7.0
799 … Romania … 11,502 … 35,802 … 1,988 … 5.55 … 6.9
4,518 … Argentina … 67,343 … 119,301 … 2,178 … 1.83 … 6.7
803 … Kyrgyzstan … 12,328 … 23,657 … 865 … 3.66 … 6.5
1,707 … Kazakhstan … 26,264 … 66,895 … 375 … 0.56 … 6.5
92 … Switzerland … 1,513 … 33,382 … 1,969 … 5.90 … 6.1
423 … Costa Rica … 7,104 … 9,969 … 47 … 0.47 … 6.0
115 … Paraguay … 1,948 … 3,457 … 28 … 0.81 … 5.9
553 … Kuwait … 9,436 … 58,221 … 404 … 0.69 … 5.9
93 … Malawi … 1,643 … 2805 … 55 … 1.96 … 5.7
352 … Palestine … 6,219 … 7,764 … 53 … 0.68 … 5.7
33,959 … Brazil … 603,990 … 2,048,697 … 77,932 … 3.80 … 5.6
227 … Bosnia and Herzegovina … 4,051 … 7,908 … 245 … 3.10 … 5.6
250 … El Salvador … 4,476 … 11,207 … 309 … 2.76 … 5.6
471 … Azerbaijan … 8,490 … 26,636 … 341 … 1.28 … 5.5
1,370 … Dominican Republic … 24,748 … 50,113 … 942 … 1.88 … 5.5
1,938 … Bolivia … 35,193 … 54,156 … 1,984 … 3.66 … 5.5
1400 … Israel … 26,323 … 47,459 … 392 … 0.83 … 5.3
328 … Ethiopia … 6,223 … 8,803 … 150 … 1.70 … 5.3
2,613 … Saudi Arabia … 52,283 … 245,851 … 2,407 … 0.98 … 5.0
389 … Kenya … 7,857 … 12,062 … 222 … 1.84 … 5.0
337 … Venezuela … 7,232 … 11,191 … 107 … 0.96 … 4.7
116 … French Guiana … 2,543 … 6,509 … 34 … 0.52 … 4.6
1,787 … Philippines … 39,541 … 62,947 … 1,660 … 2.64 … 4.5
163 … North Macedonia … 3,704 … 8,786 … 406 … 4.62 … 4.4
1,035 … Panama … 23,850 … 51,408 … 1,038 … 2.02 … 4.3
353 … Poland … 8,290 … 39,407 … 1,612 … 4.09 … 4.3
442 … Armenia … 10,889 … 34,001 … 620 … 1.82 … 4.1
3,951 … Peru … 98,756 … 345,537 … 12,799 … 3.70 … 4.0
74,987 … USA … 1,886,715 … 3,770,012 … 142,064 … 3.77 … 4.0
1,462 … Indonesia … 37,339 … 83,130 … 3,957 … 4.76 … 3.9
230 … Moldova … 5,906 … 20,494 … 675 … 3.29 … 3.9
293 … UAE … 7,637 … 56,422 … 337 … 0.60 … 3.8
3,034 … Bangladesh … 88,085 … 199,357 … 2,547 … 1.28 … 3.4
870 … Guatemala … 27,377 … 33,809 … 1,443 … 4.27 … 3.2
831 … Honduras … 26,612 … 30,867 … 835 … 2.71 … 3.1
809 … Ukraine … 26,039 … 57,264 … 1,456 … 2.54 … 3.1
6,406 … Russia … 207,707 … 759,203 … 12,123 … 1.60 … 3.1
1,079 … Ecuador … 35,790 … 72,444 … 5,250 … 7.25 … 3.0
600 … Nigeria … 20,049 … 35,454 … 772 … 2.18 … 3.0
2,085 … Pakistan … 70,787 … 259,999 … 5,475 … 2.11 … 2.9
130 … Czechia … 4,659 … 13,742 … 358 … 2.61 … 2.8
142 … Ivory Coast … 6,002 … 13,696 … 87 … 0.64 … 2.4
312 … Portugal … 13,605 … 48,077 … 1,682 … 3.50 … 2.3
159 … Belarus … 7,921 … 65,782 … 491 … 0.75 … 2.0
231 … Italy … 12,456 … 243,967 … 35,028 … 14.36 … 1.9
101 … Nepal … 5,871 … 17,445 … 40 … 0.23 … 1.7
159 … Afghanistan … 10,931 … 35,229 … 1,147 … 3.26 … 1.5
836 … France … 65,289 … 174,674 … 30,152 … 17.26 … 1.3
703 … Egypt … 54,984 … 86,474 … 4,188 … 4.84 … 1.3
199 … Belgium … 36,174 … 63,238 … 9,795 … 15.49 … 0.6
These are the countries within Europe who are still not reporting their full numbers (what Iran was doing in March and April, but since ceased the practice). They avoid reporting their daily active cases which renders it not possible to directly compare the current daily spreading rate in the country. Which seems to be the whole point of not reporting it, like every other country on earth does every day. They are of course trying to avoid scrutiny in direct comparisons. The UK was the first to start doing it, simply because the numbers were such a disgrace, and made clear there has been a major failure by Boris the shaggy’s government, and the UK bureaucracy and Civil Service. Possibly the worst government stuff-up anywhere.
New Cases | Country | Active Cases | Total Cases | Total Deaths | % Died | % New v Active (Daily Spread %)
1,400 … Spain … N/A … 307,335 … 28,420 … 9.25 … #VALUE!
687 … UK … N/A … 293,239 … 45,233 … 15.43 … #VALUE!
152 … Sweden … N/A … 77,281 … 5619 … 7.27 … #VALUE!
103 … Netherlands … N/A … 51,454 … 6,136 … 11.93 … #VALUE!
But Premier of Victoria Dan Andrews, is not beat yet, and is mounting a major challenge to Boris’s epic schnozzle. Australia had the 4th highest spreading percentage globally on Friday. Good going Dan! A disgraceful multi-faceted policy failure by the Victorian State government, during a global pandemic, when Dan and Co., should be leaving nothing to chance.
New Cases | Country | Active Cases | Total Cases | Total Deaths | % Died | % New v Active (Daily Spread %)
425 … Australia … 3,002 … 11,235 … 116 … 1.03 … 14.2 <– Australia’s daily spreading was 14.2% of Australia's total known cases, in 1 day!
The following 9 countries have been sorted by percentage of their dead of all known cases, nationally, where the deaths rose above 5% of known cases (see second column on right).
New Cases | Country | Active Cases | Total Cases | Total Deaths | % Died | % New v Active (Daily Spread %)
836 … France … 65,289 … 174,674 … 30,152 … 17.26 … 1.3
199 … Belgium … 36,174 … 63,238 … 9,795 … 15.49 … 0.6
231 … Italy … 12,456 … 243,967 … 35,028 … 14.36 … 1.9
6,406 … Mexico … 83,003 … 324,041 … 37,574 … 11.60 … 7.7
405 … Canada … 4,141 … 109,669 … 8,839 … 8.06 … 9.8
1,079 … Ecuador … 35,790 … 72,444 … 5,250 … 7.25 … 3.0
92 … Switzerland … 1,513 … 33,382 … 1,969 … 5.90 … 6.1
799 … Romania … 11,502 … 35,802 … 1,988 … 5.55 … 6.9
2,379 … Iran … 22,776 … 269,440 … 13,791 … 5.12 … 10.4
In France, Belgium and Italy the mortality has run closer to 3% to 4% of the population that contracted it – much more lethal, and more people apparently got a lot sicker than elsewhere. Clearly some countries, and their immediately (very porous to non-existent) bordering neighbors have had a more deadly strain circulating inside their states.
The disease never stopped accelerating the spread at any point after March 5th, but this acceleration rate did drop to a much lower level after about the first week of May 2020. And it remained at that same low level since early May to now, and has actually been very slowly easing the acceleration since late May.
The massive decline in the rapid acceleration prior to the first week of May was entirely due to isolation and quarantine, which has been phenomenally successful. If that had not occurred plus kept working since to suppress the very rapid spread in mid to late March, we would be getting well over 10 million new cases per day right now, and the world and its economy would be in uncontrolled chaos, with death on a scale not seen out side of WWI and WWII.
So when you hear people tell you that quarantine and isolation do not work, that is absolutely wrong, they have worked brilliantly so far, it is what is keeping our modern world from falling apart. Yes, we may be seeing faux-riots as cover for brazen thefts, damage and ideological stupidity, on a scale not seen for almost a century, but this is but a fraction of what we could be seeing today if that isolation and quarantine process had not occurred, and had not worked so effectively so far.
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I am hoping that the rapid growth in cases is due to testing of entire populations in lock down areas. It is the essential first step to reestablishing control. The time when you could trace cases from the Ruby Princess are gone in Victoria. This disaster was created by the Victorian government. Daniel Andrews has overseen the creation of a runaway pandemic in a city already under lockdown. No fishing, no golf, no swimming, no sport, no public meetings, no Arts and with the roads, trams and trains and buses empty. An extraordinary world class feat of total incompetence for a simple job. If there were world awards for incompetence and lack of responsibility, it’s teflon Dan.
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I think it was no coincidence that the 1918 Communist Revolution in Russia occurred, succeeded and was consolidated during the 1918 thru 1919 peaking of the Spanish flu, when war, chaos and economic failure produced the circumstances that allowed it to be consolidated.
Today isolation and quarantine are working to maintain manageable levels of governmental and police-enforced civil order, even if the disease has continued, it’s accelerating at a slower and more manageable rate. So expect the isolation and quarantine processes to not be lifted for years to come. The majority will support that no matter if you think its wrong-headed follows wrong priorities, or represents an alleged economic ‘mistake’.
It’s no mistake. As Jo has pointed out you can’t openly live with and manage a virus with a default setting of moon-shooting if you give it any opportunities to do so. If governments are foolish enough in their administrations and policies to allow this to occur the disorder we’ve already seen commence will be nothing compared to what will come after an exponential growth, which sews seeds of chaos and loss of control of civil populations, and law and order. Such would inevitably trigger domestic military intervention to re-impose civil order, via Martial Law and use of lethal force to settle the matter of what we do from there.
Effective isolation and quarantine by governments who recognize this is what will keep countries from going some way along the spectrum towards a failed state.
What the acceleration curve(s) currently show is that there’s almost no EXTRA acceleration currently occurring in June and July’s global data. The rate of acceleration is holding around 1.02 during that entire time and is declining very slowly. In other words, the virus is growing at close to elimination velocity. IT only needs to be pushed harder in that direction and it would be eliminated globally in under 2 months. More than 95% would be gone within just 1 month.
So elimination is indeed totally doable. But that’s a distinct choice which requires a pugnacious strict follow through, to end it quickly.
At the beginning of July, I projected via using the then observed acceleration, that the total cases would reach about 17 million by the end of July. Today it’s projecting to be about 17.5 million cases on the last day of July. So almost no change in the global acceleration rate has occurred in the past 2 months.
But what’s continuing to change during that past two months or so is an ACCELERATING rise in active cases (blue trend line) which is indicating that although the total cases acceleration rate is very slowly declining, plus the global death acceleration is also declining, the active case acceleration is genuinely getting faster — during the past 6 weeks in particular.
So COVID-19 is producing more known active cases with time as the virus develops. People are steadily getting sicker for longer, as it seems a new strain is taking over. Alternatively this is occurring in the developing world (who’s stats are becoming increasingly significant over the past 2 months) because their medial services are of lower capacity, so their cases clear more slowly, and patients linger in illness for longer.
I think it may be both a new strain, and poorer capacity to look after patients. A new lower mortality strain(s) is involved because the death rate is falling even as the disease’s infection scale continues a relentless rise in numbers. Plus because central western Europe is experiencing about 17% dead, of their KNOWN cases. While Australia is experiencing just over 1% of KNOWN cases dying. Not only did we isolate the virus just in the nick of time but we appear to have (mostly) less lethal and milder illness strains. We’ve been very lucky but not so much France, UK, Belgium, and Italy.
As of right now this is the global situation:
Total Cases 14,641,819
Total Died 608,902
Percent Died = 4.16%
About 4.2% of confirmed cases die, globally.
As for “herd immuntity” levels, this is the current situation:
Global Population = 7,762,121,554
Current infection 14,641,819
So the currently known total cases represent only 0.189% of the global human population. So if we presume 4/5th (or 80%) of the cases are UNKNOWN, this means only (5 * 0.189%), or 0.943% of humanity, have contracted COVID-19 so far.
Which means far less than 1% of human beings have immunity to COVID-19 as of today.
So the situation is we need this infection’s scale to get at a minimum, 70 times larger than now, before a herd-immunity factor begins to stymie the spread, poor health, deaths and exponential tendency to disrupt. We’re several years away from a herd-immunity, with currently almost no resistance at all to COVID-19 spread and illness. This is the end of the beginning of the pandemic, in mid-July 2020. It has taken about 8 months to produce less than 1% herd-immunity.
About 98% to 99% of this disease’s progression, disruption and the long-term health, economic and financial damages, plus mass ideological attempts to sew disorder and political overthrows, and WOKE ‘revolutions’, are still to come. We’ve barely seen the beginnings of this. So don’t go thinking they’ve been beaten back, they’ll be returning, bigger, uglier and more cray-cray than ever.
Both our Local, State and Federal governments need to take this <1% herd immunity reality on-board. Unless and until we have widespread cheap treatments for it, everywhere, which negates COVID-19. Even more so, the civil population needs to take on the implications of this going on for a very long time. It must get very much worse, before it lifts away in a few years. And we'll have to clean-up the aftermath of that, nationally, and globally.
It'll be a cumulative mess, and becomes a classic case of, “It’s always darkest before the dawn”, as this process accelerates towards global herd-immunity levels. It will be up to us to keep our head as the disease's affects, disables and destroys countries. We won't like the result if we screw-up early and lose control, or else fail to understand the process, and set ourselves up to get though it to an actual recovery. Which will probably be years coming.
I'm going to add here that I'm also peeved by the foolish people who reflexively claim this is just 'doom mongering' — amid their show of internet faux ‘bravado’ and swaggering ‘tough-guy’ BS.
This is level-headed analysis based on numbers and the implications which project where we’re currently headed, and will get to, if nothing major changes within the interim. I fully accept it could change for the better, a clear potential for that exists. It could turn for the better suddenly, but so far it hasn’t changed in 4.5 months — and it may not.
What would change the situation (I've repeatedly said this since early February) is when effective, affordable mass-produced anti-viral treatments are available everywhere, which quickly make COVID-19 a highly-contagious but inconsequential disease, which loses its ability to suddenly disrupt whole countries and regions. Given this hasn't occurred, we do have to prepare ourselves (mentally and materially) to manage a situation where this doesn’t happen in time, to prevent a very much worse disruption than we’re ready seeing, and to play-out over years, not a few more months.
We’re not ready for this, most people still presume it’ll go away soon. And yes, it could. But the alternative, namely, that a situation that’s at least 70 times larger in scale than now must transpire first. This is too much for most people to face.
Unfortunately their internet ‘faux-bravado’ and ‘tough-guy’ optimism routines won’t stretch that far.
So people should consider the possibility that we get to the end the hard and genuinely disastrous route, that we’re no closer than about 1% of the way toward it right now, that 98% to 99% of this is still to come. Because right now, that’s true. It may come on us irresistibly, within an increasingly time-compressed fashion which stresses us to unmanageable levels, as it overtakes our capacity to foresee and still manage, even if less than ideally, what comes after that.
There are only two things which can sure-fire prevent it overtaking us in that way:
(1) Isolation and quarantine, to eliminate it locally then join up the elimination zones (we’ve already got this right where we’ve really tried to do that).
(2) An antiviral that works, and is available everywhere in affordable high volumes before the end of 2020.
I strongly agree with Jo’s position that we can not “live with” this virus within the community. The numbers make this clear, it will overtake us in time, and in an unmanageable chaotic manner if we try to coexist, which then will push us towards failed-state outcomes. And with no continuing capacity to chose how things go from there. What we do right now, however, will allow us to choose the end-point’s timing and conditions. The right choices made now will have a disproportionately positive effect later. So far our Federal govt is mostly doing that, and most States are doing a pretty good job of it too.
I firmly reject the idea that we can “let-it-rip” in any way, shape or form.
Or that we try to “live with it”, as though we’re “enlightened” about it all, and can do so. That delusion will produce the most unmanageable and ruinous outcomes. It’s not time to give-in to the stupor of internet and TV level ‘philosophies’, or the 2-cent value ideologies that are armed with an endless supply of pithy quotes masquerading as profound insights, for now. That stuff is just noise, which will ensure we fail, so I’m not interested in people spruiking that rubbish and ignoring where we‘re actually going right now.
It’s time to ADAPT to new circumstances, which will change faster than we’re used experiencing. Most of the adaptive approaches we try will also not work, or not work that well. We need to be mentally ready for such experimental failures and expect them to occur, as there will be many disheartening such failures soon. But we will, within that process, identify adaptation paths which do work in manageable ways. Humans are in every possible environmental niche and thrive, because we’re good at this, when we have to be.
Ultimately I’m optimistic about how this will turn out, and how much good it will produce. But it is darkest before the dawn.
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Sorry, I forgot to include the COVID-19 curve(s) graph link for this text:
Here it is:
https://i.ibb.co/Yt5NPS3/EXPONENTIAL-CURVE-VALUES-FOR-COVID-19-2020-07-20-155032.png
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It also occurs to me that if 10% of a population develops chronic illness and health undermining as herd-immunity is actually reached, we can expect the effects to be like the nation’s population has aged 10 to 20 years inside of 2 years, with similar effects as accelerating a demographic-transition.
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Gosh WXcycles.
That is a long long essay with a lot of ideas!
I will just take issue with this;
Your source is Worldometers, which I also follow. You quote the current figures but extrapolate the mortality rate at 4%.based on current infections and deaths. The mortality rate has been moving down steadily over time. A better measure, IMHO, is the case fatality rate (which is the deaths compared with recoveries). It was 20% and has come down to 7%. I expect to see 6% tomorrow.
Currently 99% of cases are classified as MILD and only 1% are SEVERE (of whom half may die). It has been that way for weeks, which is why the fatality rate is coming down. In the end we will see 0.5% mortality or less.
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And the fact that if medical systems are not overloaded, the mortality rate drops. For a lot of reasons.
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You are bit obscure TdeF. Simple fact is that the rate of severe cases World Wide is 1%. And it has been there for many weeks.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Mortality starts very high and drops as what was an unexpected disaster gets under some sort of control, supplies become available, lessons are learned and balance is found. And beds. And respirators. And everything else. Routine. Also I expect sick people are detected earlier, treated earlier and doctors at each stage know exactly what it is and what to do. And once total lockdown stops growth, the hospitals start to clear and there are more resources.
Further, as reported in Northern Italy, the viral load in each sick patient has dropped incredibly, as reported by a number of doctors. Whatever they mean by that. People are not presenting as sick as originally and in many cases the disease is barely detectable. So it should be dropping.
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Yes Peter, I’ve posted graphs of that several times, showing that trend, I am not cherry-picking if you are suggesting that.
Since the beginning of the international bloom in cases on March 5th the daily mortality rate has never been below 3.4% (about the initial spread value), and is currently 4.2%, after peaking at 7.1% on April 29th.
Here’s an earlier graph I posted about that trend on about May 18th:
https://i.ibb.co/qMxFLgD/Percent-Who-Died-Of-All-Cases-Global.png
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On the subject of masks, something this blog has consistently recommended, read this.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/media-mask-mania-or-covid-19-groupthink
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Good read, but I object to this comment.
‘ … in reality, at most, a moderately serious flu virus …’
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I wish I hadn’t
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Here’s an interesting study from Singapore General Hospital and Duke-NUS Medical School. The authors acknowledge the small sample size and lack of systematic biological measures to support its findings, but see the results as very promising.
Singapore COVID-19 study: Vitamin B12, D and magnesium supplementation reduces severity in older patients
29-Jun-2020 By Guan Yu Lim
A cohort study in Singapore has found that the combination of vitamin D, magnesium and vitamin B12 (DMB) could reduce the rate of progression in older patients with Covid-19.
https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/Article/2020/06/29/Singapore-COVID-19-study-Vitamin-B12-D-and-magnesium-supplementation-reduces-severity-in-older-patients
https://WWW.NUTRAINGREDIENTS-ASIA.COM/ARTICLE/2020/06/29/SINGAPORE-COVID-19-STUDY-VITAMIN-B12-D-AND-MAGNESIUM-SUPPLEMENTATION-REDUCES-SEVERITY-IN-OLDER-PATIENTS
[Link repaired]
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I am sleeping quite well. The effects of the Covid Virus are far far less than the initial scary predictions. This is a Pandemic but it is not the Plague, nor the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. We are a bit deprived of useful information, partly because the Doherty Institute did not do anything to test the best evidence for Hydroxychloroquine, but nonetheless we do have some information about personal protection;
1. Masks seem to work
2. Social distancing does work. even if that means self isolation
3. Vit C, D , K and B12 may help
As far as the first sentence is concerned (Jo is quoting from another source), I agree that human nature has not been understood (even though we have had 4000 years to study and understand it). I am not sure that I agree with the first two statements.
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And for the first time in millennia, we know exactly what is going on. The amount of information even on this blog is amazing. Consider that in 1918 they did not have antibiotics, RNA/DNA, and even blood types has just been discovered and germs and disinfectant was a revelation from the Crimean war, largely vinegar at the time. Without any idea of why it worked. Everything was trial and error. It must have been terrifying.
We humans now know exactly what is the enemy and in great detail. And more, who made it and how. It was the loss of the first 6-8 weeks of warning which has caused 600,000 deaths and devastated the planet. That never happened with MERS and SARS because the previous German Director of WHO declared a world pandemic. This one told the world not to worry. He had clearly been reassured by President Xi that it was not infectious and that it was the Americans fault anyway.
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“It was the loss of the first 6-8 weeks of warning which has caused 600,000 deaths and devastated the planet”
Not so sure about that…….Blame lies in a lot of places, second guessing is rampant.
Certainly the WHO delay did cause 6 wks of delay…In the US, even after realizing the severity of the infection, the general response was Let’s wait and see how bad it gets and then we’ll take the appropriate action. In the US, all 50 states has their own health care system, and power to order changes and action in that system…Not a single state sought to procure PPE, respirators, beds, or any additional equipment to prepare for the potential pandemic. Even Cuomo in NY threatened a “war” if the federal government tried to isolate NY. Then when the shite hit the fan demanded 10,000 respirators and thousands of hospital beds in the form of triage tents and navy hospital boat…none of which were ever used….Blame deflection.
Every State failed to act, taking a “wait and see” attitude. When that failed, they demanded the feds fix everything and immediately supply what is 20 yr supply of federal medical equipment. Ain’t gonna happen.
Australia having about 300 plus cases a day now only needs to look to Florida and Califonrnia to see how quickly things can go south. The cats out of the bag in the US, and has been for a long time….the virus will roll through most US states before this dies down.
Your one badly performing state should be “locked down”, an opportunity the US and many other countries missed and surely regret.
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” devastated the planet.”
Damn, I missed that . Lucky the internet didn’t go down.
Were there any survivors?
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No Peter, we have competitively excellent information this time around, and that’s what’s sparing us much higher mortality.
I suggest you look at the explosive growth curves in the 1918 to 1919 pandemic. Those were the result of a lack of information and poor understanding that led to poor responses and decision lag.
That has not occurred at all in 2020, we have been right on top of it with information from the moment that less than 100 cases had (officially) emerged. And we have done the things necessary to completely avoid such a rapid explosive growth in cases, which overwhelms available medical services and produces a 4% mortality of all cases, not just in the known cases. In 1918 the hospitals were completely overwhelmed and people died in larger numbers sooner.
That is the real difference here. IF they had out level of information in 1918 they would have had much less severe waves and far fewer deaths.
It’s the comparatively excellent information flow that’s keeping COVID-19 from being able to express the worst potential it has, and we’ve not seen that yet except in limited situations in central Western Europe, where mortality has reached 17% to 18% in the known cases.
You can’t just conveniently wave off those deaths for the sake of your narrative.
And that sort of information is what will help prevent more of that mortality potential from developing, from here.
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Peter, what part of 18% daily mortality in France, and similar in Belgium and Italy, don’t you understand?
You’re grossly generalizing and it’s very inaccurate, plus highly disrespectful to what actually happened to the populations in some countries to then claim it was not serious or scary.
On the contrary, you are not being serious, lift your game please.
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Dear Jo Nova Sorry to rain on your parade.
Most hospital workers – but not doctors – are overweight or obese, study finds.
(78 percent of participants were overweight or obese)
Houston – Excluding physicians, a majority of hospital workers are overweight or obese and do not take part in vigorous physical activity, according to a recent study from the University of Texas School of Public Health.
Researchers surveyed 924 workers, many of whom identified themselves as hospital administrators or technicians, at six hospitals in Texas from 2012 to 2013.
They found that 78 percent of participants were overweight or obese, and 65 percent reported living a sedentary lifestyle with zero days of vigorous physical activity. In addition, 48 percent said they did not partake in moderate physical activity.
https://www.safetyandhealthmagazine.com/articles/15299-most-hospital-workers-but-not-doctors-are-overweight-or-obese-study-finds
Obesity prevalence among healthcare professionals in England: a cross-sectional study using the Health Survey for England
Obesity prevalence was high across all occupational groups including: among nurses (25.1%, 95% CI 20.9% to 29.4%); other healthcare professionals (14.4%, 95% CI 11.0% to 17.8%); non-health-related occupations (23.5%, 95% CI 22.9% to 24.1%); and unregistered care workers who had the highest prevalence of obesity (31.9%, 95% CI 28.4% to 35.3%).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5719305/
There will allways be viruses. It’s up to the individual to maintain optimum health and fitness.
The real reason for sickness again falls on white sugar, white flour and white salt, over 50 years of research have showed what a devastating effect the 3 White poisons have on the human body.
Depleted mineral diet (Zinc)(Vit.C) overweight and sedate life style are the real culprit’s, lowering immune system and making these people vulnerable to the slightest infection.
Personally I do not see why healthy (diet exercise) people should have to pay for people that are not interested in looking after them selves.
BUT.
Fluoride in drinking water may trigger depression and weight
Fluoride Damages Thyroid Gland, Studies Show
Is fluoride responsible for your obesity, sluggishness, joint pain, hair loss by causing underactive thyroid (hypothyroid)
Researchers, Kheradpisheh et al., compared people with hypothyroidism to those without thyroid disease and found that fluoride in drinking water impairs thyroid hormones even at 0.5 milligrams per Liter (mg/L) – less than the US government and organized dentistry’s recommendation of 0.7 mg/L to ostensibly reduce tooth decay.
https://patch.com/new-york/albany-ny/fluoride-damages-thyroid-gland-studies-show
UK Scientists Say that Fluoridated Water Makes You Fat and Depressed
A new study from the University of Kent has found that Britons who live in areas with higher water fluoride levels are significantly more likely to develop thyroid problems.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/gvmejx/uk-scientists-say-that-fluoridated-water-makes-you-fat-and-depressed
Ultimately the real cause was years of,
Water fluoridation linked to depression and weight gain, new research confirms.
https://fluoridefree.org.nz/water-fluoridation-linked-depression-weight-gain-new-research-confirms/
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Perhaps because we like living in a civilization that looks after it’s own, and doesn’t let hospitals overflow to the point where elective surgery is canceled and mass graves are being dug.?
And if half the population is a victim of the Sugar-Fat-Wars and 40 years of misinformation about healthy foods, plus fluoride, preservatives, antibiotic overuse, and other bright points, perhaps they are not all unworthy slobs? Could be some there who paid taxes for decades, fought in wars, worked as policemen, raised decent kids, and generally were outstanding citizens.
If we are going to make being fat a death sentence, it seems fairer to give people some warning before we change the rules?
Should we save cancer patients, old people?
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And the fluoride thing: interesting, hadn’t heard about that before.
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KK, the flouride thing is more to do with Iodine or more to the point the lack of Iodine due to Flouride
Below is from D.C. Jarvis MD. He wrote a book on Folk Medicine back in the 1950’s
“FOLK MEDICINE IN VERMONT is interested in three R’s-Resistance, Repair, and Recovery. First the individual asks himself whether his resistance to disease is as it should be. Next, is he able to repair tissue injury due to accident should it occur? Finally, if sickness should come, is his body able to bring about recovery? Somehow during the passing years he has learned that iodine is related to the ability to resist disease.
Iodine is necessary for the thyroid gland’s proper performance of its work. The human thyroid gland is located in the front of the lower part of the neck. All the blood in the body passes through the thyroid gland every 17 minutes. Because the cells making up this gland have an affinity for iodine, during this 17-minute passage the gland’s secretion of iodine kills weak germs that may have gained entry into the blood through an injury to the skin, the lining of nose or throat, or through absorption of food from the digestive tract. Strong, virulent germs are rendered weaker during their passage through the thyroid gland. With each 17 minutes that rolls around they are made still weaker until finally they are killed if the gland has its normal supply of iodine. If it does not, it cannot kill harmful germs circulating in the blood as Nature intended it should.
It is well established that the iodine content of the thyroid gland is dependent upon the iodine available in the food and water intake of the individual. If the iodine intake is low the gland is deprived of an element it needs to do its work.
We learn in Vermont folk medicine, however, that this gland performs other functions besides killing harmful germs in the blood. The first is the rebuilding of energy with which to do the day’s work. There is a definite relationship be-tween the amount of energy you have and your iodine intake. The first question in the presence of a condition of depleted energy is, Is the soil of the state in which one lives iodine-poor? Second, is the deficiency being made up by supple-mentary means? All soils containing granite are iodine-poor and Vermont is one of them. This fact is very important to people living in Vermont and well may be important to those living elsewhere. When energy and endurance run low in relation to doing the day’s work, then the taking of iodine needs to be considered.
A second function of iodine is to calm the body and relieve nervous tension. When nervous tension runs high there is irritability and difficulty in sleeping well at night, and the body is continually on a combat basis, organized for fight and flight. All these points stress a body’s need for iodine to lessen nervous tension, relax the body and enable it to or-ganize for peace and quiet, by the building and storing of body reserves against time of need. I have learned through Vermont folk medicine that it is possible to repeatedly change an irritable, impatient, and restless child under ten years of age into a calm, patient individual within two hours’ time by giving one drop of Lugol’s solution of iodine by mouth in a vegetable or fruit juice or in a glass of water made acid in reaction by adding a teaspoonful of apple cider vinegar. I have repeatedly prescribed this in order to make it possible for a mother of a racehorse-type little boy or girl to be able to live comfortably with the child. I have never seen it fail to calm down a nervous child.
A third function of iodine in the human body relates to clear thinking. The mind simply works better when the body is supplied the iodine it needs.
Then there is the matter of the storing of unwanted fat. Iodine is one of the best oxidizing catalysts we have. A catalyst is the match which touches off in the body the fire that burns up the food we take in each day. If this food is not properly burned off, it may be stored as unwanted fat.
Now while the thyroid gland helpfully stores iodine from the blood passing through it every 17 minutes, the gland may also be made to lose that stored iodine if, for example, we take in drinking water to which chlorine is added, or use too much sodium chloride, whose common name is table salt. There is a well-known law of halogen displacement. The halogen group is made up as follows:
Relative
Halogen Atomic Weight
Fluorine 19.
Chlorine 35.5
Bromine 80.
Iodine 127.
The critical activity of any one of these four halogens is in inverse proportion to its atomic weight. This means that any one of the four can displace the element with a higher atomic weight, but cannot displace an element with a lower atomic weight. For example, fluorine can displace chlorine, bromine and iodine because fluorine has a lower atomic weight than the other three. Similarly, chlorine can displace bromine and iodine because they both have a higher atomic weight. Likewise, bromine can displace iodine from the body because iodine has a higher atomic weight. But a reverse order is not possible. A knowledge of this well-known chemical law brings us to a consideration of the addition of chlorine to our drinking water as a purifying agent. We secure a drinking water that is harmful to the body not because of its harmful germ content but because the chlorine content now causes the body to lose the much-needed iodine.”
https://www.jcrows.com/iodine.html
In Australia most people are chronically lacking in Iodine and this is the reason long ago the government pushed for Iodised Salt. Especially out in the bush, far from the ocean, people would get goitre (enlarged thyroid gland).
Iodine is very very important for women’s health.
http://www.integratedhealthblog.com/tag/dr-guy-abraham/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6145226/
Lugol’s Solution used to be easily available – pharmacist would mix up the ingredients for you – back in the olden days. I have bought it online in Australia from one supplier but it has disappeared. I’ve still got enough for a while. I take a couple of drops 3 times a week.
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A MUST WATCH. Globull Warming 2.0
BREAKING: Health Secretary Matt Hancock has ordered an urgent review into how Public Health England calculates the daily COVID-19 death figures.
Sky News’ Rob Powell explains why this review has been called
https://www.facebook.com/skynews/posts/3873342872680281
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The focus on “frontline healthcare workers” or “medical professionals” (not sure who is included in the definition, because a lot of people aside from doctors and nurses have contact with patients) made me think about about pharmacists/pharmacy employees and their exposure to people contagious with various things.
Unsurprisingly, someone has already published a study on the Wuhan Flu and Pharmacies here. They did only get 1632 responses, so the sample size is not great, but the results are not particularly surprising – with some arm-waving and assumptions added, they are somewhere above the general population, but less than “healthcare workers”, whatever they are exactly.
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The P.M of N.Z. has announced , using the media outlet that the government bailed-out / purchased for a cool $50 million, that she is “disappointed” that, of the 681 tests conducted yesterday, only 8 tests were not on people already in quarantine.
That is , there were 8 tests on the community at large. It’s just not good enough.
Nevertheless, Jacinda did announce that $14 billion is available for the “hard lockdown” which she will enact just as soon as she can find one , just one , case of “community transmission” .
So there is absolutely nothing that anyone need worry about .
“Let’s do this” !
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It’s frightening to realize that the medical decisions on this “pandemic” are being made by Career Politicians.
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“The real reason for sickness again falls on white sugar, white flour and white salt, over 50 years of research have showed what a devastating effect the 3 White poisons have on the human body”
Crap….during the lockdown I got really good at making naturally fermented sourdough bread….
Do I have to give it up, keeping in mind I use organic stone ground white and whole whole grain flour mix.
Inquiring minds want to know.
Heck, I already leave the tap water on the counter for 45 min to get rid of the chlorine.
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The three white killers directed by the one White that rules them all.
(Could not resist mis-quoting from Lord of the Rings)
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There might be something in this, the authorities are trying to change the mindset.
‘Any of us could be superspreaders if we happen to be the first person in the right place at the right time, where there are conditions the virus likes – such as a crowded indoor environment with no ventilation.
‘Some individuals have been exposed to public attack because of their role as perceived “superspreaders” and there are concerns fear of similar attacks could prevent people coming forward for testing if they have recently been in contact with large groups or with vulnerable people.
‘For this reason, many experts now prefer to talk about “superspreading events”. ABC
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Channel 7 BUSTED for Fake News in Melbourne
7NEWS Melbourne just got busted producing fake news about the current COVID-19 situation in Melbourne. Instead of taking responsibility and correcting their lie, they TRIED to SCRUB it from the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0oRyljuLik&feature=em-uploademail
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