There’s a reason the Romans wore Togas
A new study near Sicily shows the sea surface temperatures were a whole two degrees Celsius warmer then. The worst-case scenario of the Paris Agreement has already happened, and it was nearly 2,000 years ago. And instead of being a baked-earth apocalypse, the Roman empire flourished during the warmth and declined as it cooled.
Time to burn oil and Make Rome Great Again?
The expansion of the Roman Empire coincided with the warmest period in the Mediterranean of the last 2,000 years.
Probably just a coincidence. /
A formanifera with the awkward name of Globigerinoides ruber apparently likes to live near the sea surface around 10 to 50 m down. Depending on the temperature, it ends up with slightly different ratios of calcium and magnesium. At some point it dies, sinks and sits in a mud layer on the sea floor 475m below. Eventually, for this lucky mud, someone digs it out and analyses it. This new study suggests the Mediteranean warmed up during Roman times from AD 1 to AD 500.
This was the Roman Climatic Optimum — an era we are spending trillions to avoid.
The researchers suggest that cooling and drying conditions helped bring down the Roman Empire. Though, judging by the current state of civilization, it appears vandals can work with any kind of weather.
Obviously this study related to the area near Italy, but other studies show the Roman era was warmer in Antarctica, Greenland, Venezuela, North America, Alaska, South Africa, China, and the Atlantic Ocean.
… Click to enlarge.
The media’s take on this is not to take the obvious headlines like, say, Rome was once hotter than now — man-made climate change is irrelevant. OR:
Climate change has happened before. So What?
Instead this new study is a reminder of how climate can alter the course of civilization. That serves two purposes. It bolsters the sense that climate change is all doom and gloom, and Very Important. Secondly, it distracts people from looking at other reasons that Roman civilization collapsed — like corruption, complacency and currency inflation.
Press Release: Universitat De Barcelona
The greatest time of the Roman Empire coincided with the warmest period of the last 2,000 years in the Mediterranean, according to a study published in the journal Scientific Reports, from the Nature group. The climate conditions derived progressively towards arid conditions and later colder ones coinciding with the historical fall of the empire,
Previous studies had related the fall of the Roman Empire to some natural factors (climate change, volcanic eruptions, etc.). With a large-scale regional view, the study provides high resolution and precision data on how the temperatures evolved over the last 2,000 years in the Mediterranean area. “For the first time, we can state the roman period was the warmest period of time of the last 2,000 years, and these conditions lasted for 500 years”, notes Isabel Cacho, professor at the Department of Earth and Ocean Dynamics of the UB.
Mediterranean Sea was 3.6°F hotter during the time of the Roman Empire – the warmest it has been for the past 2,000 years, study shows
Johnathon Chadwick, Daily Telegraph
‘For the first time, we can state the Roman period was the warmest period of time of the last 2,000 years, and these conditions lasted for 500 years,’ said Professor Isabel Cacho at the Department of Earth and Ocean Dynamics, University of Barcelona.
The Mediterranean is a semi-closed sea, meaning it is surrounded by land and almost only connected to oceans by a narrow outlet, and is a climate change ‘hot spot’ according to a previous paper.
h/t Colin
Background Information:
- The big picture: 65 million years of temperature swings
- Antarctica cooling since Roman Times, climate models wrong (again)
- Roman Warming (was it global?)
- Climate helped drive Vikings from Greenland
- The Medieval Warm Period hit west Antarctica
- Scandalous hockey sticks and hidden data
REFERENCE
Margaritelli, G., Cacho, I., Català, A. et al. (2020) Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period. Sci Rep 10, 10431. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67281-2
Garcia-Solsona, E.; Pena, L. D.; Paredes, E. ; Perez-Asensio, J.N.; Quirós-Collazos, L. ; Lirer, F.; Cacho. I. (2020) “Rare Earth Elements and Nd isotopes as tracers of modern ocean circulation in the central Mediterranean Sea”. Progress in Oceanography, June. Doi:/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102340
So the Romans were ‘deniers’ by not being overtly concerned about the temperature, just enjoying the warmth and the conditions for prosperity it produced.
431
It must have been all those Roman heated baths and SUV chariots what did it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ozEZxOsanY
What have the Romans ever done for us?
270
tom, you forgot the centrally heated houses as well.
131
Jobs for Latin scholars?
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https://watchers.news/2020/06/28/okmok-volcano-fall-of-roman-republic/
“Massive eruption at Alaska’s Okmok volcano in 43 B.C.E. linked with cold weather, widespread famine, strange sighting in the sky and the fall of Roman Republic”
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The Roman Empire was the post-Republican period of ancient Rome.
“post” – – meaning there was a Roman Republic that came before the chart’s “Roman Period”
But wait, there’s more.
The Republic replaced Rome’s monarchy,
the phases seem to be Monarchy / Republic / Empire
Once you get all of this straightened out, have a go at Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Series.
173
Where the hero is a guy who really knew his Maths, Hari Seldon.
Tony.
123
But, but, but,
sputter, sputter
Last year was the warmest year ever.
and he one before that.
and the one before that.
and the one before that……
Caesar’s models lie! et tu Micheal Mann?
Must lie down now…
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A professional pilot, turned amateur archeoogist, the late Raymond Selkirk used his professional skills and opportunities to conduct aerial surveys of England, particularly of his native county of Durham and found several previously unkown roman fortifications and was partially responsible for the discovery of a Roman bridge and associated treasure at Piecebridge.
In one of his books (The Piecebridge formula) he talks of the terraces seen as snow marks south of Hadrian’s wall and speculates that these are actually the remains of rice terraces, such as he saw in SE Asia, rather than medieval farming strips. Not as silly as it sounds because in the Imperial period a hardy strain of rice was grown in Germany, and trials of rice growing were conducted in England during WW2. Also it looked as if the latrine effluent from nearby fort (Housesteads) led into the terraces, a practice he had seen in Asia.
240
Interesting, I had not heard of this rice theory before. Surely it was more likely to be vine terraces which were grown pretty far north in roman times. Rice and hadrians wall seems an unlikely combination.
190
Yes, more likely vines. Grape seeds from the Roman period have been found near hadrians wall. The Romans established vine growing and winemaking in England (and much of the rest of their empire). Vinegrowing ended in England in the mid 17thcentury when England had prohibition imposed by Cromwell and his puritan mates. The slow decline into the’little ice age’ wouldnt have helped. Its only now in the rebound of the modern warm period that grapegrowing and winemaking is again flourishing in England.
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Ian Plimer wrote that “the Doomsday Book of England shows where grapes were grown” in Heaven+Earth on page 65.
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Four references to grapes in the index. As fish are turned by their tails so a book by its index…
10
Tonyb, rice needs terraces where land is not flat to create level ground for flood irrigation and inundating.
Why do vines need terracing? I have the impression flood inundation is not their thing.
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Are there any coprolites that can be cracked open and analysed for rice grains?
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Don’t think so … the megafauna had been taken out 10,800 to 8,600 years before this and the massive floods which washed them away and drowned them would have cleaned the landscape of all the large coprolites, (espec. North America.) The floods were the northern ice sheets melting from the impacts of the bigger comet fragments.) Modern coprolites are unlikely because they are very perishable.
(How to melt big ice sheets fast: throw big rocks from space at them.)
The Germanic tribes which invaded Italy/Rome were quite a flood, spilling out into Hispania (Spain) and across the Med as well. I remember reading (a long time ago) that the Baltic area had received some surprise presents/packages from space around then (435 AD or so) which, if correct, would be a good reason for such an invasion. The Dark Ages could have been truly dark, which makes growing crops a bit difficult.
The Romans had to learn “Vie Victis!” all over again.
I haven’t looked for any impact evidence so have a good hunt.
The Taurid stream of cometary debris hasn’t finished with us yet. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_meteor_air_bursts) Tunguska was one. Some of the brightest objects hanging around our orbit are biggies. The Younger Dryas 12,000 YA to 10,600 YA could be regarded as just target practice.
61
The Mediterranean hot spot must have had a long radius. The “spot” extends all the way to Alaska, where a melting and shrinking Mendenhall glacier is exposing trees which were growing 2,000 years ago. To state the obvious, for the benefit of any academics lurking, it was warmer during the Roman Warm period than during our Modern Warm Period, and warm long enough for a forest to flourish where the Little Ice Age produced a massive glacier.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/alaska-glacier-thaws-ancient-forests-uncovered-as-mendenhall-glacier-retreats_295037.html
You don’t suppose the Roman Warm Period was global? (Asking for a friend.)
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Its the sort of thing an actual expert would point out, not “look! A rabit – that is becoming more destructive as the world warms and its getting worse”.
60
More rabbit = more rabbit stew !
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Don B I included the links in the post showing that the Roman warm period was present in Antartica, Alaska, North America, Atlantic Ocean, Venezuela, China, South Africa, Indonesian deep sea waters.
See Was Roman Warming Global.
If all these were warmer or above average, someone needs to find a lot of cooler-than-normal spots to make the overall temperature of Roman times to be “not warmer globally”.
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The plural of toga is togas. Great website but many grammatical goofs.
[Indeed. Fixed. Yes, was falling asleep at the desk last night. – Jo]
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Jo must stay up all night to post these new posts,
.. they often appear at what would be 2 to 3am her time. !
I’m sure she will fix it when she sees it 🙂
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Wore Toga’s budgie smugglers.
There. Fixed it for you.
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Brand name was everything back then !
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Toga’s was a soup house, actually !
Been around a fair while 😉
20
Whoops (Togas). Anyway the Toga was probably uncomfortably warm in the roman summer. A lot of Romans wore the tunic.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=toga+vs+tunic&qpvt=toga+vs+tunic&form=IGRE&first=1&scenario=ImageBasicHover
[Fixed. Thanks. – Jo]
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Trousers had not been invented. Too difficult. And they are very complex to make, like modern shirts. All solved by the tunic. I have always been amazed by the simplicity of women’s outfits with just a dress size. And still women never have anything to wear.
Trousers seem to have appeared with the Mongol horse riders and the much colder weather of the dark ages, which I suppose is really why they were called the Dark Ages. A bit like Melbourne in winter. Throw in a bit of Black Death and you have Melbourne.
And when women finally adopted trousers, they have to be glued on, which must make getting the size and shape right a nightmare. The solution appears today to be stretch gym pants with cutouts. I suppose there has to seem to be a bit of mystery even when there is not.
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And don’t get me started on the invention of underpants. It does make me wonder about those two Christian events, the Ascension and the Assumption, disappearing up into the clouds. I suppose followers were supposed to look at their feet.
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TdeF: trousers hadn’t been invented then is not to your usual high standard.
That is a slip/blunder of Fitz-ish proportions.
The Roman legions would have laughed at you over that (breeches). It was more like pockets hadn’t been invented but trousers are c. 3000 years old. For Horsemen. I’ll let you consider why …
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Here’s one reference
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/first-pants-worn-horse-riders-3000-years-ago
You can enjoy yourself looking for more …
50
That’s being very picky. At worst, invented was too strong. In daily common use by the non military. Trousers were as common as chain mail.
I have yet to see a picture of ordinary Romans, Greeks, Egyptians, Britons in trousers. Pockets or no pockets. That fact that the some horse riders or soldiers wore such things or hose is irrelevant. And even today the Scottish and Greek military wear skirts as formal dress.
So what’s your dress size?
43
Haven’t got a clue. Never been fitted for one nor a kilt. 😀
But you can be sure, trousers on a horse save a lot of dermal punishment, and it’s not just military but mounted herdsmen. The horses don’t seem to mind gorse but don’t try rounding up in that country without leather trousers. In NZ, gorse is rampant.
30
And even today the Scottish and Greek military wear skirts as formal dress.A kilt is NAE a skirt. Go tae the back of the class, the noo!
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It’s certainly not troosers.
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🙂 Och ai!
00
The Highland Light Infantry (HLI) wear/wore trous which are trousers with kilt pattern
50
Or trews.
00
German cavalry wore trousers as far back as the cimbri-teutones invasions of SE Gaul around 100 BC. I guess nobody knows when breeches were first made.
50
Getting a supply contract for the Roman legions would be a big prize.
50
Again a restricted military outfit used by cavalry for obvious reasons. The Romans were always very worried that the secret of troosers would be stolen by Scottish spies. And the fashion world was terrified of the prospect of tartan trousers. Or even a tartan trousers as women were not allowed wear them.
10
About the same time as the invention of socks.
10
The toga was a huge, semi-circular, sheet of wool. It was damned hot in summer, uncomfortable always, and damned difficult to wear. You had to get the folds just right, and then try to move in a many way without disturbing the folds. The best way to accomplish this was to have a couple of slaves constantly adjusting the thing around you. (Some people cheated by putting little lead weights into the folds.)
It was used for formal occasions, and every Roman who wore one was damned glad to get out of the thing when he could.
Tunics were the ordinary everyday wear.
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The toga was a huge, semi-circular, sheet of wool. It was damned hot in summer, uncomfortable always, and damned difficult to wear. You had to get the folds just right, and then try to move in a manly way without disturbing the folds. The best way to accomplish this was to have a couple of slaves constantly adjusting the thing around you. (Some people cheated by putting little lead weights into the folds.)
It was used for formal occasions, and every Roman who wore one was damned glad to get out of the thing when he could.
Tunics were the ordinary everyday wear.
30
Repetition due to trying to alter “many” to “manly” at the wrong time.
Sorry.
30
During peeiods of natural warming civilisation thrives.
10,000 BCE Glacial retreat.
Egyptian warm period. About 5250-5000 years before present.
Summerian warm period. About 4000-4300 years before present.
Minoan warm period. About 3100-3400 years before present.
250 BCE-400 CE Roman Warm Period
900 CE-1300 CE Medieval Warm Period
Modern warm period From about 250 years ago to present.
The Medieval Warm Period used to be called the Medieval Climatic Optimum but was changed by warmists so as not to suggest that warming was good or optimal.
Video: Top ten climate change lies exposed. Note that YouTube has made this video hard to find without a direct link.
https://youtu.be/ICGal_8qI8c
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I was amazed to read that the Little Ice Age only ended in 1870. A minimum. So you would not be surprised that things warmed up after that. What goes down must go up. But it coincided with the boom in manufacturing and we had man made warming. So the lack of manufacturing caused the cooling?
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You forget the Dalton Minimum with a cold period from just before the turn of the
Century (1795)… In the UK, it was cold right through to the 1890s, as seen in men’s fashions made with felted wool. During that time, women wore pantaloons (petti-pants rather than petticoats).
Clothing follows the Climate. That followed Tambora’s eruption — the year without a summer (1816 aka eighteen hundred and froze to death) Napolean lost a million man army trying to invade Russia before the cold had really settled in. (Commemorated in Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture!). He got out with an army of 10,000 men left and met his Waterloo Sunday, 18 June 1815…
Sic transit gloria mundi.
50
sophocles:
The year 1810 was cold too. It seems that the Dalton Minimum may have had a practice run in 1783/84 Laki eruption in Iceland, but 1787,88,89 were warmer.
In England the year 1895 was rather cold with the Thames freezing over (upstream from usual point). I always thought the fashion for women’s pantaloons involved the craze for bicycles.
30
The map of Napoleon’s march on Moscow and the (ignominious) return was by Charles Joseph Minard. I’ve found an Internet copy of it! (The Internet can be a wonderful place!)
My copy was in a book by Edward R Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitive Information 1983 Graphics Press, Connecticut (XIV printing March 1995) No ISBN I can find. It’s a must read for all Klimate ‘Scientists’ and wannabes so they can produce meaningful graphical information without having to change the data as NASA GISS likes to do so often. (Gotta keep the ‘warming’ rising even when it’s now cooling as Kirye keeps demonstrating with the data from the Japan Meteorological agency …)
Minard’s informative graphic is available from:
https://sciencenorway.no/blog-blog-from-numbers-to-graphics-statistics/charles-joseph-minards-map-of-napoleons-flawed-russian-campaign-an-ever-current-classic/1618695
Hmm: it’s a busy page which I’ll have to explore thoroughly soon … in the meantime, Minard’s graphic is stunning. There’s a digital one with temperature information available (linked) too … I’ll be back looking for that.
Graeme No.3: the pantaloons as female underwear goes back a long way, probably mainly for children. (See the illustrations to Alice in Wonderland 😀 ) The bicycle craze not so much: look up split skirts a popular (with the ladies) solution for riding — horses mainly but maybe for bicycles too.
I’m referring to English fads not global.
10
“The greatest time of the Roman Empire coincided with the warmest period of the last 2,000 years in the Mediterranean …”
Isn’t the response to this ‘Duh’?
The start of the greatest leaps in science, technology and civilization ever to occur coincided with the warming that started at the end of the LIA. Isn’t this also obvious?
Let’s hope they figure this out before some study done centuries after civilization has returned asks why the paleo data starting from the late 20’th century shows far less warming than the recorded data that led to centuries of suppression, hardship, chaos, revolution and a tough road back to sanity would suggest.
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I wrote an article on sea levels in Britain during roman times
https://judithcurry.com/2011/07/12/historic-variations-in-sea-levels-part-1-from-the-holocene-to-romans/
There is no doubt they were higher than today, which would reflect a warmer world with melting ice and thermal expansion of the oceans
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Given the fact that the oceans have 1400x the heat and heat capacity of the air, it will be a long time before a 1C change in air temperature produces the thermal expansion of the oceans. About 14,000 years.
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Quite the reverse in fact
Consider the solar driven gulf stream. Oceans and the sun make all the weather, even in the short term. Still people study the air which is nothing more than an effect, not a cause of the weather.
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Isn’t it obvious that people are happy and productive when it’s warm and miserable when it’s cold?
Even if global warming were true, it would be a good thing.
“Academic” clowns should occasionally leave their air conditioned offices and go outside. Climate change “scientists” would greatly benefit by looking out the window or going outside.
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Depends on what you mean by warm and what you mean by cold.
Walking on dartmoor today ( an upland area in southern England) it was overcast and a delightful temperature of about 20c it can get to 25 c or a little more and that is far too hot for us.
Walking up there at zero c is great if it’s sunny but can be very miserable at 5 c with a wind blowing and overcast.
So I suppose it depends. Certainly when I hear of temperatures in Oz regularly getting to 30c it doesn’t appeal to me.
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You should enjoy the piercing blue sky. The impressionist loved the bright colours of Provence and Nice. Not a patch on the colours of Australia. They lift the spirits. No idea why.
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And our 30C is often very low humidity. I have enjoyed stifling 37C nights in Moscow and Colorado. Unbearable and endless. No relief of cool nights.
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I see my red thumbing minion is out of bed. It’s nice to have a follower.
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Even an illiterate one.
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Incapable of anything but giving a red thumb.
A very sad existence, for sure. !
40
You would not be the only POM to find weather conditions in parts of Australia tough to take:
https://www.perthpoms.com/topic/208-a-diary-of-a-pom-in-karratha/
What you have to realise that in tropics, there are two seasons; wet and dry. The story covers the dry season, which runs from about start of May to end of November. If you are only familiar with four seasons then the punch line at the end of the Karratha story will have you thinking it is like h*ll. But by late November there could be days when clouds form and It gets cooler than October. Cyclones appear in December through April and the sun may not appear much for a week. In February on the other side of the country clothes and shoes stored in un-airconditioned houses grow mildew. Despite having a wet season, Karratha is a particularly dry spot. It typivcally gets its total rainfall in a year over just a few days.
Also people acclimatise. I lived in Karratha for 3 years. I can still remember the evening in one July when I wore a pullover to a Bar-B-Q; normal such apparel was only worn on trips south. I did make the mistake of taking an undergraduate from Perth, up on work experience, out sailing/diving on an overnight trip. There were four of us on the boat and the undergraduate fainted when he went below to get out of the sun on the sail back into Dampier. He was simply not acclimatised to the conditions despite Perth not being a particularly cold spot.
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Beautiful Dartmoor. A friend of ours walks there every day.
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Not the common reputation of Dartmoor, but I only know about it from the endless jokes about the bogs. Monty Python (Tracts of land), Pete and Dudd, Frog a la peche and Peche a la frog. And the Prison, Tales of Old Dartmoor, parodied by the Goons.
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Sorry, the Frog a la Peche was in the Yorkshire moors. My mistake.
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Two red thumbs. Clearly off topic. I am certain the topics were frogs and peaches. And the effects of warming on them. In Roman days.
21
Don’t let it worry you too much, tony. I was in Melbourne in late October in 1990 and it was a nice cloud free day with barely moving air. The Magpies were busy trying to beat up on hawk. The temperature was 23°C but out of the sun it felt noticeably cool.
I’m in NZ where 23°C is warm (and the magpies also beat up the hawks). It seems to depend on the RH (Relative Humidity).
40
In Germany children are sent home from school when the temperature reaches 25°C. I was baffled by this but people who have lived there assure me such a temperature is absolutely oppressive; I assent but am not convinced though it does provide some insight into the thermophobia exhibited by our unlearned brethren, the green climatists.
10
As an expat Scot who has lived in Oz since 1966 I cannot imagine going back to live with my remaining siblings in Scotland. 28C is a very comfortable temperature for me now and I have worked outside in India and SE Asia In temperatures at least 10C higher. It is what one gets used to and the snowflakes in northern climes that are rabbit about a 1 degree increase in average temperatures really have no idea what they are fearful about.
50
Peter
The amusing thing of course is that Brits and most northern Europeans flee on holiday to places likely to be up to ten degrees warmer than their homeland. Americans of course flee to Florida. So this panic at one degree , even assuming it to be usual, which it’s not, should please many people
30
““Academic” clowns should occasionally leave their air conditioned offices and go outside. Climate change “scientists” would greatly benefit by looking out the window or going outside.”
They like the exclusiveness of being members of the “empixellated” – too much time looking at screens, not enough outside
110
Why does this study, which covers 5000 years not record the medieval warm period?
I’ll remain sceptical
318
You are sceptical about what? The study; or whether the Medieval Climatic Optimum existed? It is labelled on the graph as MWP.
182
And its higher than current temperatures.
Reading a graph is so difficult for you, isn’t it Peter !
181
The main focus is on the RWP and I think volcanic eruptions may have ended it.
40
Here is a recent paper to support the hypothesis.
https://notrickszone.com/2020/07/23/natural-variability-the-northern-hemisphere-cooled-and-warmed-by-1c-in-decades-1500-years-ago/
40
Thanks el gordo – that supports my point, here is another example.
There also was the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, In the year following the eruption, average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures fell by 0.4 °C. The eruption injected an unusually large amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas high into the stratosphere, which was subsequently transported by high-level winds all over the planet. This led to a global increase in sulfuric acid (H2SO4) concentration in high-level cirrus clouds. The resulting increase in cloud reflectivity (or albedo) reflected more incoming light from the sun than usual, and cooled the entire planet until the sulfur fell to the ground as acid precipitation. (Wikipedia).
So how do we square those longer term heating and dramatic cooling events (where the temperature rise is spread over 100’s of years) with the AGW, where the temperature rise is decadal.
211
There was also the Toba eruption during the Dalton Minimum.
70
Tambora
50
Thanx sophocles, very lazy of me.
20
‘ … where the temperature rise is decadal.’
There are brief moments where temperatures rise for half a century, it has something to do with the internal dynamics of the system. What the oscillations are doing.
If we conclude that volcanic eruptions ended the RWP then we can also say that eruptions brought a close to the Renaissance period.
40
yep, that would be my take as well.
14
Imagine if this happened today, the ramifications would be profound.
“And it came about during this year that a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to shed. And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death” – the Byzantine historian Procopius in 536 CE.
80
PF,
It is beyond reasonable to put faith in near 1883 vintage temperatures that fell by 0.4 degrees C in I the Northern Hemisphere. The proper, realistic uncertainty in this estimate has to exceed +/- 1 C (2 sigma). Most thermometers were being read to whole degrees at some stations. Geoff S
80
Ergo, it is beyond reason to put faith in the proxy temperature reconstruction for the RWP. You can not have it both ways.
19
Sad you don’t understand proxy temperatures .. or any other actual science. !
91
Sadder that all you have is insults
210
Can we all agree that solar forcing played a limited role during the LIA?
51
So you admit you don’t understand proxy temperatures…
…. any more than you understand CO2 NON-warming
OK.
50
“all you have”
We are all STILL WAITING for that empirical evidence of CO2 warming, Peter.
“All you have” is an empty nothingness.
60
Volcanic eruptions in the late 13th century altered climate significantly around the world.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-16797075
By the mid-16th century, before the Maunder Minimum, conditions were already cooling markedly. There were no large eruptions either, so it must be the result of feedback.
40
el gordo:
There were a number of eruptions around 1610 but they could hardly have caused the sun to have less sunspots.
The Maunder minimum (approx. 1650 – 1715) was a time when there were very few sunspots and very cold at times**. The number of sunspots fell during the Dalton minimum also, and reduced in the cold period from about 1885 to 1910.
As for older times we have no suitable record but proxies such as C14 and Be10 can be used to trace changes in the sun’s output back about 9,500 years. An increase in both isotopes (esp. Be10) is taken as evidence of reduction in the solar wind, allowing cosmic rays to cause more clouds. See Jack Eddy paper 1976 in which he named the Maunder & Sporer minimums.
** it has been suggested that his enthusiasm for sharing his bed by Charles 2 might have had something to do with the cold weather.
20
Reinforcing the argument that our slide into the LIA was universal.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2007.tb00277.x
40
“with the AGW”
What AGW.?
You haven’t proven there is any !
71
“where the temperature rise is decadal.”
What exactly do you mean by that?
In the only worthwhile temperature data, it occurs ONLY at El Ninos
1980-1997.. NO WARMING
2001-2015.. NO WARMING
Do you mean that warming only happens in one year out of 10 ?
Is that what you meant to say ?
71
Do we want a cooler Earth?: “summers just after assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE were among the coldest in the northern hemisphere for thousands of years, & this sudden prolonged chill can be linked to lost harvests, famine, the failure of the all-important Nile flood
And the evidence? Deposits of volcanic ash in the Arctic ice cores that can be linked directly to one once-smoking crater in the Aleutian islands now known as Okmok, according to new research in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“These findings lend credibility to reports of cold, famine, food shortage and disease described by ancient sources.”
Climate change caused havoc 2,000 years ago
https://www.eco-business.com/news/climate-change-caused-havoc-2000-years-ago/
comment summary:
Geologists have shown that climate change can be linked to some of the most dramatic moments in human history: civil strife in the Roman Republic that ended with the fall of a Greek dynasty in Egypt and the rise of the Roman Empire.
80
WeE do not have a choice. Any unusual event such as a massive volcano that impacts on the atmosphere causes cooling.
The maximum temperature on earth is controlled to a narrow range due to the presence of water on the surface. The ocean surface water cannot rise above 305K because that results in massive increase in water vapour that forms clouds to prevent sunlight reaching the surface; a highly negative feedback system. The water cannot fall below 272K because it forms insulating ice. If more of the surface water fowms sea ice due to some cooling event then snowball earth becomes possible.
The risk of Earth cooling to become uninhabitable is possible. There is zero risk of the earth becoming uninhabitable due to heating until the sun goes red.
50
See what happens when you assassinate Caesar?
Don’t do it again.
70
In the non-scientific world of climate discussion (which is the only place i can reside) when all else fails the alarmists resort to the current speed of temperature rise as unprecedented. I know all about the arguments as to the causes, how much and whether the temp has even risen at all, but i cannot find any reference to rapid temperature changes in the past e.g say 1°C over 50 or even 100 years. Can anyone help me with this?
30
There are probably thousands of papers that show rapid temperature change. This one was published today:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/24/ancient-temperatures/
There are links to the dataset if you want to do your own analysis.
In Australia, it is only the BoM data fudges that produce a warming trend in the last 150 years. And, of course, urban heat causing local temperature rise in concentrated city centres like Sydney and Melbourne.
110
Tks Rick. What i’m looking for is an example of a temperature change of >1° over <100 years that more or less stabilised and influenced climate, even regionally, for a longish period of say 500 years or more.
20
I have found the link from El Gordo at 12.4 which i think is exactly what i’m after.
20
Sea level could perhaps be seen as a proxy for world temperature.
Ice accumulation resulting from cooling reflects in lowering sea levels.
00
Overview of last 7000 years.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/07/hottest-summers-in-the-last-2000-years-were-during-roman-times/#comment-2350072
00
I can never understand why warmists think a warmer climate is bad, even if it were true that the planet was warming.
Everything is better when it’s warm. Humans love warmth.
142
I think I just answered my own question. Humans love warmth. That’s why the Elites are against it (even if warming were true). But they’ll still have their private islands and private jets to get there. Fortunately for them, the Elites have lots of useful idiots backing them.
132
Humans might love warmth, but I believe that they are more productive when they are colder. In fact, when occasionally engaged in communicating information to others, I always tried to ensure that the environment was kept cool.
20
The very reason Lee Kwan Yew air conditioned Singapore as there could have been no development without somewhere out of the heat for people to think.
20
Think straight.
20
Good weather for building advanced civilizations apparently.
82
David Maddison alleged:
Have you only just noticed? 😀
Given that we don’t have any fur (apart from the top of our heads) we can only survive the cooler times because we invented clothing. At first we just took what the better equipped animals grew But then some members of our species invented fashion …damned inconsiderate of them … and we have countless materials to manufacture clothing from for any purpose and any conditions.
If it’s comfortable without any clothing, it’s warm enough
If it’s not comfortable without clothing, then the climate’s too damned cold!
That’s why the warmists can’t win.
30
I luv those picture of climate alarmists rugged up to eyeballs with beanies with snow all around them…… complaining about “global warming”.
Its as though they don’t realise just how idiotic they look ! Bizarre lack of self-awareness.
10
white global warming … scary isn’t it?
00
Sars-Cov-2 breakthrus:
5-27-20 Dogs sniff out coronavirus, cancer, etc. better than machines by far, faster too. rhttps://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/05/dogs-sniff-covid19/
……………………………………………….
An international team led from NY has found an extract from edible seaweeds substantially outperformed remdesivir, the current standard antiviral used to combat Sars-Cov-2….the virus could just as easily be persuaded to lock onto a decoy molecule that offers a similar fit via the virus’ Spike protein. The neutralized virus would be trapped and eventually degrade naturally. https://news.rpi.edu/content/2020/07/23/cell-studies-seaweed-extract-outperforms-remdesivir-blocking-covid-19-virus
………….
7-24 India 484/3915= 12.4% increase/day new/active cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
South Africa 131/1526= 8.6% increase/day https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africaBrazil 581/5774= 10% increase/day https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil
Iran 24/191= 12.6% increase/day https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran
Nigeria 6/214= 2.8% increase/day https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/nigeria
USA 69.4/1944= 3.6% increase/day https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
Russia 5.8/196= 3% increase/day https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/
11
Strange events currently occurring in the Arctic…
Magnetic field changing.
https://www.iceagenow.info/magnetic-north-pole-moving-as-much-as-37-miles-per-year/
Could this also be effecting the record heat that was recorded?
Is the planet flipping and changing the latitudes?
40
The US could map invade Canada by changing the planets mapping lines then and boot the inhabitants out…
They certainly have a keen interest in Arctic exploration and it’s resources.
10
The lattitude markers won’t change, these are referenced to the IERS reference pole, a fixed position on the earth’s surface, which incidentally is not the rotational axis of the earth which tends to vary. The shifting magnetic pole will not affect the coordinate system.
52
*oops, I meant latitude not lattitude.
32
So will the lattitude markers change?
20
I suspected it wouldn’t do to vested interests in this ownership scam that the government’s and bankers enjoy quite well.
So, our axis doesn’t matter where it ends up.
30
Jo says…
Except this time is not weather, its a cold political climate.
100
If you have not seen the tv series Spartacus, I highly recommend it as the producers tried to recreate the history to that period where slaves were nothing more than furnishings and had no intellectual value. Quite open in its nakedness which fits the show quite well.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1442449/&ved=2ahUKEwjC5c_n7ebqAhWCnOAKHRoNB48QFjAXegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw35-mg9oPEFxCztZwfnL62f
30
I recommend “PLEBS”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKVoj5YOqdY
30
Yes it’s a funny and often politically incorrect programme.
If anyone is looking for a good laugh, just to show the BBC can still laugh at itself I recommend W1A a sort of semi documentary set in the bbc itself. Equally good is it’s predecessor about the London Olympics
30
Makes sense to me-why would the Roman Empire have been motivated to expand into North Western Europe had there not been suitable warm weather there to make it worthwhile and feasible?
Unless of course they had nothing else to do like stay at home and drink wine!
GeoffW
100
And just up the road
“Modern Ancient Temperatures”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/24/ancient-temperatures/
50
Predictably the alarmist/msm/renewable rent seeker response will be the same as always – firstly it didn’t happen, and then when provided with proof, yes it did but it was natural then, it is not natural this time because coal.
110
Did you ever see a warmist that refused a holiday on a tropical island, even ones barely above sea level like the Maldives?
And they only ever go to the poles when other people like taxpayers pay for it. Hence ones in Government employment inventing ridiculous “research” projects to justify their “scientific” investigations.
112
There are crowds of bikini clad researchers on atolls in Tahiti. Measuring ocean acidification in little tanks. Of course. It’s a hard student life for some, under the palm trees, swimming in the lagoon studying the reefs. Picnics on the little islands, studying the environment carefully. All to stop global warming, apparently. And like JCU, they need more hundreds of millions of dollars to continue the great work.
133
Jo, why is there an apostrophe in the by-line?
30
Because I am still overcoming my apostrophe disability. After years of therapy I can now get its and it’s right most of the time.
161
Hi Jo,
Here’s a few free ones from me ””””””””””””””””””””””””””””’, use ’em as you see fit.
Rememper a living language chanqes over time, beab languages like Latin don’t.
I hoge I’ve all the astropophes in the rite places.
Lysdexically yurs
TM.
50
Turtle,
Should that be “bye” line in Australia?
20
it’s byline
See Fowlers ‘Modern English Usage’ (3rd Ed, Oxford University Press).
20
O.K.
I didn’t check.
10
The Australian Press Council has published a finding against the Australian for ‘a climate-denying’ article it published during the Black Summer bushfires:
“The Press Council considered whether its Standards of Practice were breached by an article by Emeritus Professor Ian Plimer headed “Let’s not pollute minds with carbon fears” published by The Australian in print and online on 22 November 2019.
The article was an opinion piece in which the writer criticised what he described as an “attack” on carbon dioxide.
The article included statements that there “are no carbon emissions.
If there were, we could not see because most carbon is black.
Such terms are deliberately misleading, as are many claims.”
The article also referred to “fraudulent changing of past weather records” and “unsubstantiated claims polar ice is melting”, as well as “the ignoring of data that shows Pacific islands and the Maldives are growing rather than being inundated…”.
https://www.presscouncil.org.au/document-search/adj-1782/
100
Of course Plimer’s statement is perfectly correct and legitimate. All that has to be done is to rename the ‘carbon’ meme to CO2 in order to correct an obvious error. Apart from pure stubbeness and ignorance there have to be more reasons why this is not done. Anyone like to comment . .
GeoffW
80
Yes indeed, Plimer was also correct in saying Antartica is not melting, snow and ice has been increasing since the beginning of the Holocene. Global warming has a tendency to do that, so its not going to melt anytime soon.
50
That’s 2°C for those who prefer sensible units.
Which is everyone except USA, Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Liberia, Palau, and Federated States of Micronesia.
Of 195 countries only 6 countries still use Fahrenheit. That’s a …(drumroll)… 97% consensus!
81
The climate nazis will be running to the vomitorium after they read this study
70
All through the Roman Empire,
People dressed in loose-clad attire,
Not in tight fitting clothes,
Such as trousers or hose,
With temperatures 2C degrees higher.
150
Thanks. That was quick!
Assuming your last line was influenced by Andrew McRae (2C) at #26 above I think you may have composed your limerick in less than 10 minutes.
70
2C or not 2C; no twas 2B, or not 2B.
50
JN writes, “There’s a reason the Romans wore Toga’s
A new study near Sicily shows the sea surface temperatures were a whole two degrees Celcuis warmer then. The worst-case scenario of the Paris Agreement has already happened, and it was nearly 2,000 years ago. And instead of being a baked-earth apocalypse, the Roman empire flourished during the warmth and declined as it cooled.
Time to burn oil and Make Rome Great Again?”
Pedant On: the plural of “toga” is “togas.”
The temperature scale is spelled “Celsius.”
Pedant Off.
60
Yes, silly me. As for Celsius – you are right but I note others say they were also taught Celcius. I had to look it up because the c looks more right than the s to me, but concede that the name of the Astronomer was Celsius, so I will have to unlearn the c version.
131
So will I.
Thanks Will
20
Apart from togas, togae or togæ are also acceptable plural forms.
52
A lot of civilizations collapsed when the crops failed. The French Revolution being one of them. And droughts are more caused by cold weather than warm. Warm weather produces more evaporation and that invariably produces rain and plants need three things, sunshine, water and CO2. Antarctica is technically a desert.
70
Or to quote that famous scientist Tim Flannery, even the rains that fall are not going to fill the dams. Of course he was right. You don’t get rain in a drought anyway. It’s amazing what someone with a PhD in ancient wombats knows about science. Chief Climate Commissioner for Australia too. Nice work if you can get it. Meteorologists need not apply.
60
Passing conversation on a hot day 2000 years ago in Rome: “calidum satis ya Maximus?
30
Ego satis superque sum.
12
Satis dictum Davidus!
20
Only a true linguistic Vandal would substitute superglue for superque…
30
Testing, new second-hand PC today. Geoff S
40
Read you 5 Geoff
20
Hi Jo. “An era that we are spending trillions to avoid”
Pretty well sums up the whole madness of it all. Except that “we” does not include anyone outside of western civilisation.
Those intending to organise an extinction rebellion demonstration in Beijing would soon have their wishes fulfilled, at least on an individual basis.
Cheers,
Speedy
100
Stop everything for a minute.
This coronavirus situation around the World is positively horrendous.
You almost forget who visited all of this upon us all, and how they have just gotten off scot free.
Will they be made to pay for this?
I somehow doubt it, and that’s what makes me angry, really angry, and we are so utterly powerless.
Tony.
150
If so, I suspect it will, in a delicious irony, be via a death by a thousand cuts, as millions of consumers
look a the label on the trinket they are about to buy, see “made in China” and put it back on the shelf for another choice,
and thousands of small businesses choose another Asian home for their supply chain or make a more patriotic choice.
In the vernacular, “Chinese” may become the Da** Chinese, or the Fu***** Chinese….and they will become a cold war enemy.
The documented evils such as the treatment of Minorities will enlarge with lurid tales of such nastiness as organ harvesting,
and we will be good and properly in a cold war. Politicians and elite authorities may then, and only then, follow. The
Apples of the world will be the last to learn and hold out for peaceful co-existence until the next century’s equal tot he Berlin wall falls.
30
Think yourself fortunate you’re nowhere near Victoria where the quisling premier hasn’t actually said it but it’s clear he would rather call on the Chinese PLA than our own ADF for logistical support.
00
I might depend on who wins the next US presidential election. Trump is certainly laying blame.
Also I think that a lot of countries are having another look at their supply chains. The world economy is changing and it may not be favourable to China.
On top of all that there have been the devastating floods. And the Peasants are revolting in Hong Kong. Will the Chinese Communist Party Lose the Mandate of Heaven.
I think David Wojick wrote an essay about that recently but I can’t find the reference just now.
100
From anecdotal evidence the island group known as Great Britain was much, much warmer than it is now during the Roman Occupation.
We may also be able to find evidence of the language and trade that spread from Babylon outwards during earlier millennia too if we look more carefully. Much depends on where evidence can survive long enough for us to find it, but it serves little purpose, IMO, for humans to believe that we now live in an age of potential destructiveness of nature when so much of what happened in the past remains an almost complete unknown. Digging for dirt doesn’t pay half as well as attending to the whims and agendas of fund raisers and is nowhere near as good at filling stomachs and lining pockets.
Nature has always provided checks, balances, ruthless outcomes and never ever concerns itself with vague human concepts such as too little too late. We just have to dig a little deeper than we currently seem able or willing to do in our current conceit of exceedingly weak beliefs. In short we need a new path, a wise way to get some honesty back into everything and kick our obsessions with money, control and divisive use of technology and politics.
70
UK-Weather Lass
Chiefio https://chiefio.wordpress.com/
has done some musing on that Mediterranean spread. I can’t give you direct links but his “History” section might be the place to start
Plus in “Measurements” he goes through how the imperial system can be arrived at from first principles.
30
Add to that a few papers available here
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antiquity/listing?q=Roman+vineyards+in+Britain&_csrf=dETK7hzE-sGSBv_6tFO7Ot5XTEKN4jy0zGlo&searchWithinIds=C06207AB2CE3EE948718B5F6E30870D7
A global search of the site for ‘Roman vineyards in Britain’.
Quite a lot of peer-reviewed info there. Unfortunately papers are $$pay walled$$ but the Abstract, or first paragraphs are shown.
20
There can be no doubt that for much of human development over the last 10,000 years, global temperatures were well above what they are now.
40
The fact that world oceans have “dropped” somewhere between 6 and 4 metres in the last 7,000 years says something important; water is being locked in ice on land.
One particular “scientific” fact is that the science of geology has stated that a very definite drop of 1.2 metres occurred worldwide in the last two thousand years.
As far as I’m aware there’s been no retracement of that significant fall.
So much for rising seas.
KK
30
Was looking up Pevensey Castle which was constructed by the Romans on a peninsula and surrounded on 3 sides by water (good defensive planning). William the conqueror moored his invasion fleet in Pevensey bay, not much chance these days.
Pevensey Castle from the air http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN4AxGt5WXM
A number of Roman ports in England are not in use these day either. And Ostia, the original port of Rome, was replaced by a new port nearer the coast.
This all reinforces the claim it was warmer with more ice melting and raising sea levels.
50
Something not quite right here because we are told if global temperatures climb by 1.5 deg animals and plants species will die off in their thousands, so we should have lost lots of animals and plants in the Roman Warm Period but I don’t remember a report saying so. Or did the scientists get it wrong?
80
The fall of the Roman Empire also coincided with the time when they allowed an increasing influx of non-Romans and the Empire stopped insisting on them being “Romanised” as had been the case to that point. Journalists are supposed to be educated, but they cannot say that the Roman Empire fell when mass immigration without assimilation caused fractures in society and people with no Roman culture took power, can they?
30
Yeah nah
https://itsnotnova.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/novas-warm-period/
00
Just an idle observation and one made before.
Just what is the “proper temperature” for the Earth according to the Climate Change nutters???
Obviously today is apparently too hot (lets put aside the BOMs very questionable measurements and NASA/NOAAs adjustments for the moment – and assume they are correct).
But as Jo shows the Roman Warm Period was warmer, and for the past 10 000 years it has been a lot hotter. So why have the alarmists zeroed in on the 1970s as the optimum? But again what is the correct temperature?
Patrick Moore reminds us that for much of the last 100 000 years we have been submerged under grinding ice – so maybe that is the right temperature? Ignoring that New York and most of Europe would have disappeared, and that cold weather is statistically linked to an increase in deaths….
00