Antibody tests versus PCR tests: PCR tests are nose or throat swabs that amplify up short fragments of viral RNA. They only detect infection in the day or two before symptoms show, and for a few days to a few weeks later. The PCR tests cannot show past infections. Antibodies take around a week or two to rise so don’t show active infections, but will show up past ones, though — in the case of Coronavirus, may still produce no result after a few months in some people as antibodies decline.
Test results like these must finally have convinced Donald Trump to change course. It’s long past time the US got serious about this disease, but hopefully rapid action now — masks and distancing and more testing can prevent the trainwreck of rapidly rising infections across the US in two months time as winter and the US election approach.
This study shows that most people in the US have not had this virus, and herd immunity is unattainable without hundreds of thousands more deaths. It also shows how inadequate testing is in the US.
Many antibody studies have tried to estimate the true extent of the Coronavirus infection. Some were ludicrously high (as I said they would be and these new results confirm), but this new study is better. Blood tests (called serology tests) can detect antibodies from past infections but few of the past studies were randomized which means they were doomed to wildly overestimate the rate of infection due to their selection bias. Infected people are much more likely to volunteer to get tested, and uninfected people are much less likely to roam to shopping centres or respond to ads to get tested. This study tested 16,000 people, and used leftovers of blood at large commercial pathology laboratories. In other words, these were people who got blood tests done for some other reason. Not randomized, still biased, but much better than past efforts.
The serum was collected from March 23 through May 12, so biased low in that they don’t contain infections from the latest outbreaks. But it was also biased high because people getting blood tests done are still more likely to be infected people turning up to get blood tests. The peak of NY infections was April 4, so the testing here relates to the week before that NY peak. Thus infections may have been easily twice as high in NY. But — healthy people were also much more likely to be avoiding routine blood tests during the peak week of the pandemic. So double it, halve it, chuck in a guesstimate. All we know for sure is that the 7% result here is not 25% which might have indicated NY was on its way to herd immunity. Cuomo is right to try to close the borders. There are still too many people at risk in NY.
Assuming that the low scorers here (like Florida) may now be up at NY levels, they still need five to ten times the infections to slow the spread. And we are still not sure if people can re-catch Covid a year later.
Click to enlarge.
The US needs five times more tests:
Where Australian “test positivity” is in the range of 0.5% of all tests, the range in the US is often 10 – 25%. The authors estimate the US would need to do 4 million tests every day to get a grip on this infection. Current testing is around 800,000 a day. So they need to test five times as many people to be sure they are picking up most infections.
No useful info here on “asymptomatic”
The authors claim this shows most infections are asymptomatic, but given that data on symptoms is not even collected, this is not remotely reliable. Much better studies for that use PCR tests and follow up patients for 2 weeks in real time to see if symptoms develop. People in this test who had a bad case of Covid, but didn’t get a Covid swab done and didn’t end up in hospital could still end up falling in their “asymptomatic” category. Silly.
They allowed a 7 day lag when comparing PCR test results in an area to the antibody results. The blood samples are biased towards older people, sick people and people with co-morbidities. They do correct for the age bias and standardize results accordingly, but can’t correct for the “sick people” bias.
COVID-19 Infections Underestimated From Sea to Shining Sea
Medpage Today
Large serosurvey reinforces two ideas: most infections are asymptomatic, and herd immunity remains a distant goal
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection varied across the country in the early spring, ranging from an estimated 1% in San Francisco to almost 7% in New York City, CDC researchers found in an ongoing study.
A serosurvey of around 16,000 people in 10 diverse sites across the U.S. estimated a range of 6 to 24 times more infections than reported cases of COVID-19 based on antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, indicating asymptomatic spread may have played a significant role in transmission, reported Fiona Havers, MD, of the CDC, and colleagues.
Indeed, in a letter published Tuesday in the New England Journal of the Medicine, researchers at the University of California Los Angeles reported serology results from 34 patients with previous, mostly mild COVID-19. They found that antibody titers waned substantially over 90 days, with a mean half-life of 73 days.
Havers and colleagues performed a cross-sectional study on serum samples from around 16,000 people collected for routine assays at two commercial laboratories, during staggered times from March 23 to May 12. Samples were from 10 areas: the New York City region, western Washington state, metropolitan Philadelphia, Minneapolis, south Florida, the San Francisco Bay area, and the states of Louisiana, Missouri, and Utah.
While the seroprevalence was dramatically higher than the number of reported cases in all 10 areas, the gap between the two estimates varied: the smallest was in Connecticut (176,012 infections vs 29,287 cases) and largest in Missouri (161,936 infections vs 6,794 cases).
Antibody tests are still not definitive — it’s possible that some antibodies may be from other coronavirus infections (crossreactive) and it’s also possible that the antibodies (to SARS Cov-2 or other coronaviruses) are not protective. Antibody tests will miss new active infections, and potentially some infections months later as antibodies decline.
REFERENCES
Havers FP, et al “Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020” JAMA Intern Med 2020; DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.4130.
Brown TS, Walensky RP “Serosurveillance and the COVID-19 Epidemic in the US — Undetected, Uncertain, and Out of Control” JAMA 2020; DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.14017.
‘ … asymptomatic spread may have played a significant role in transmission ….’
Asymptomatic carriers are a problem, we should be able to draw up a MO on this type of character.
With so many nursing homes in Victoria falling prey to the virus, its obviously connected to those who work there.
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Testing, contact tracing, and a decent mobile app.
We have 2 of the 3
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I thought TikTok was already tracking us all >.>
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No way, that’s just a wind up.
lo
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‘We have 2 of the 3’
True, but there is much we still don’t know.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-07-23/can-you-catch-coronavirus-twice/12481448
12
El g – testing tracking and be relentless – multiple tests where indicated. As you say, we know nothing
Or
Become America
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Catching it twice…?
Considering viruses mutate, I’d have thought catching the same exact virus twice would be low probability, so “catching it twice” may be more of a boogeyman concept the blissfully ignorant ( or malicious ) MSM has invented to keep punters scared.
Also, if as that Cell paper mentioned, the version of the virus we have in Oz and Italy is a low rent version of the original nasty, which makes you wonder why the loveable bunch of Victoriastan Politburo wannabes love paying lockdown with what may be in effect a wet blanket of a risk. Yes elderly people die, and thats tragic, but last years death toll from the normal flu was 334 and all those were over the age 65. So until we crack 334, I’m not prepared to be worried.
Just thinkin’ out loud…..
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I’m also unhappy with this ‘soundbite’. For all I, all of my friends and family who haven’t knowingly caught SARS-CoV-2 we could have been infected multiple times and zapped the bug without any need for antibodies at all, and so an alternative soundbite could have been ‘You’ve had it’. There are so many conflicting views on what constitutes immunity and very little evidence that the science is up to finding the people whose bodies have simply said ‘is that the best shot you’ve got?’
Awhile ago there was a brilliant paper from a project in the USA summarising all we know globally about this bug and it gave lots of indications of where the holes were in MSM coverage through sheer comprehensiveness. It was a very long but worthwhile read. Along the journey were references to things that might reduce the risk for certain types of people. It kind of registered in my mind that ‘asymptomatic’ may not be an appropriate term for people who simply zap the bug away and never register positive. We know that some asymptomatic people can infect but they test positive. Are our conclusions about negative tests correct?
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UK-Weather Lass,
Indeed, anyone ‘asymptomatic’ may have an immune response that sees many parts of the virus as ‘alien’ and rips into those parts, and these parts may not be the ones that are tested for in the immunity tests.
Does that mean that these individuals can not spread the virus? Who knows.
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I think the concern with ‘catch it twice’ is that not everyone develops antibodies and many milder infections seem to lose those antibodies in 3-4 months. There is also the findings that the virus can kill T cells. I.e. your antibody immunity may never develop or wane post infection and the T cells side of the immune system isn’t enough. Of course, each repeat infection, should boost the prevalence of memory cells. The concern is if this virus is like Dengue and the antibodies you get the first time might help the virus the second time.
There is another alternate explanation for a second round of covid: the virus is able to hide in some tissue for a few months and emerges after the immune response dies down. We can’t rule out this possibility yet.
I think in the US they are not sequencing the virus in every positive test. In Australia I think something like 75% of people here get their virus sequenced. So, if someone in Australia does get it twice, we can compare the viral sample and if we can trace the 2nd infection back to another person… well we can reasonably be sure re-infection is likely a true phenomenon.
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You’re still stuck in first-gear linear-thinking Steve. The virus’s spread is almost linear right now, because we acted in late March to make it linear, via imposing quarantine, isolation approaches and good habits. If we did what you recommend, lift restrictions, we get ~40% per day growth inside 10 days.
~40% daily growth of the current ~6 million active cases, produces ~8 million known active cases, tomorrow.
2 million new cases per day.
And 4% of all known cases have died globally.
The 2 million increase overnight thus eventually produces 80,500 dead people a day. But that also is accelerating at ~40% each day.
The second day it’s closer to 105,000 dead, the day after that produces 145,000 dead. Deaths more than double inside 3.5 days if restrictions are lifted.
Get it now?
Of course you don’t, your probably to busy listening to Alan Jones ranting about these cwazy lock downs, and the effects on personal freedom, economy, deficit and businesses.
They’re high priorities in normal times, sure, but much lower priorities during abnormal times.
The non-linear outcome can produce the most chaos and the biggest war human beings have ever seen. It’ll be a bit more than the tragic loss of some costly surplus old people from the national accounts. Better dig some mass-graves for the fighting age cohort as well.
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And don’t even get me started on Corona caused road rage. For example, i was listening to the radio while driving and the subject was about corona. The news was so horrific and disturbing, i nearly became unconscious causing me to drive off the road:) Even hearing about corona can cause death:)
Turn the radio off and don’t listen to corona news while driving is my best advice:)
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There have been a couple aspects of this that have been talked about. One is that metabolically unhealthy people could be less likely to form a proper immune response, this includes from vaccines. This is mentioned at length in a talk between Dr Paul Mason and Bart Kay, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_hzO1jj58M
Research from South Korea suggested there is no evidence for re-infection https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-reinfection-immune-response which would lend itself to either a false positive result the first time or the test picked up another corona type infection.
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There’s been little, if any, evidence of asymptomatic spread. Most of the few cases attributed to asymptomatic transmission are actually cases of pre-symptomatic transmission which are by people who haven’t developed symptoms yet, but will within days. These two pathways have been inappropriately conflated in order to amplify fear with guilt.
The significance of asymptomatic transmissions that has led to shutdowns, masks, social distancing and virtually eliminating all person to person contact has been wildly overstated and then amplified with admonishments to avoid unknowingly transmitting the virus to the vulnerable.
Influenza and even the common cold can be dangerous to people with co-morbidities, can also be transmitted by pre-symptomatic people and the level of an individuals response is also quite variable.
The China virus is certainly more contagious than other infections, but making people afraid of each other based on precaution alone is a dangerous trend, especially when that precaution becomes unjustifiable based on new information, for example, keeping children out of school. We’ve seen what the precautionary principle has done to climate science.
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Who’s saying that? Are there papers referring to this you can reference? This would be a hugely significant development as it implies only about 0.205% of humanity may have developed immunity thus far in exchange for 641,019 dead.
This also implies that 188 million people would have to die to reach 60% global herd-immunity.
—
i.e.
60% of humanity = 4,657,764,188 people
Divide 4,657,764,188 people by the current infection scale of 15,897,180 cases = 292.9
Then multiply the current death count of 641,019 dead by 292.9 = 187,814,150 million dead when 60% herd immunity is reached.
—
A lot worse outcome than anyone’s currently expecting.
00
All of this is irrelevant. And a waste of everyone’s time and money.
From ‘A Perspective on SARS-CoV-2, the Most Dangerous Virus in History’ by Jane M. Orient, M.D.
“As of May 7, 2020, the average disease deaths per day worldwide was 2,089 for COVID-19 and 2,110 for HIV/AIDS.”
Both are exaggerated, but that’s another thing altogether.
“Contrast the initial response to AIDS, when it was thought to be rapidly fatal and highly contagious, with the policy that Fauci and others recommend on COVID-19. “Universal precautions” are not enough for COVID-19. Widespread testing with quarantine of individuals who test positive, or even of their contacts, is contemplated. Requirements for “immunity passports” (e.g. COVI-PASSTM) to travel, work, engage in normal activity, or even live with your family are feared. Meanwhile, everyone is treated as possibly contagious. Medical care that is deemed “non-essential” is being forbidden, as facilities sit empty, medical professionals are furloughed, and many hospitals and practices face bankruptcy.”
https://jpands.org/vol25no2/orient.pdf
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“Contrast the initial response to AIDS, when it was thought to be rapidly fatal and highly contagious
During the first 10 to 20 years of the AIDS description and spread is was considered to be a chronic and progressive immune loss which killed people in the time frame of 10 to 15 years of a slow wasting progression. It was NEVER considered to be “rapidly fatal“.
It did appear at first to be a death sentence for those with it.
It was also not “highly contagious” at any point, just the opposite, it was a blood and saliva spread disease, spread by intravenous drug use and predominantly homosexual anal sex between men and partners of transsexual males. It was always a very low transmission risk to the vast majority of the
rest of the population.
Comparing AIDS to a new disease which kills and damages in people weeks, and is exponentially spreading, and will almost terminate its spread and presence within 5 years is absurd at best.
What [snip] you are spreading.
[A little bit hot there WX] ED
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Medcram’s last video (which I addressed a couple threads back) talked about teh advantages of the less sensitive but rapid (10 minute results) tests which would pick up anyone who is likely to be shedding at contagious levels.
Also, seems like a good time to drop in the factoid that 3-4 times more deaths have been averted in Australia due to flu than those lost to CCP virus.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restrictions-cause-flu-cases-to-drop-australia/12480190
That said, a large chunk of those lost to CCP virus would likely have been victims of flu, given their age. Clearly we averted many more deaths, could have tallied in the thousands by now, but we need a better strategy to balance health and economic needs. The rapid testing & quarantining would be a better approach IMO.
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Thanks Bulldust.
I did not see your post in time but I have addressed the rapid “Paper test” below at #5.
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I popped a reference to the MedCram video on your thread.
10
Here’s an extract from a 7/14 WaPo email titled “Need some good news about covid-19? Here are six reasons for optimism.” Opinion by Joseph G. Allen:
“* There is some science showing that past exposure to common-cold coronaviruses might be playing a protective role for some people. See https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_NRJournals This is a big claim — and I should caution that it is not fully resolved — but several studies are now showing that 20 to 50 percent of people who had never been exposed to the novel coronavirus have immune cells — known as memory T cells — in their body that react to this new virus. The speculation is that this is due to prior exposure to common-cold coronaviruses. We still don’t know why some people fare better than others, or why a few spread the disease to many while others do not spread it at all, but these findings might hold some answers to those questions.”
=============
And here’s a comment online (from this site?):
Rocket Rod
July 22, 2020 at 12:37 pm · Reply
“At the end of May Swiss immunologists led by Professor Onur Boyman published what is probably the most important study on Covid19 lethality to date. This preprint study comes to the conclusion that the usual antibody tests that measure antibodies in the blood (IgG and IgM) can recognize at most one fifth of all Covid19 infections.
“The reason for this discrepancy is that in most people the new coronavirus is already neutralized by antibodies on the mucous membrane (IgA) or by cellular immunity (T-cells). In most of these cases, no symptoms or only mild symptoms develop.
“This means that the new coronavirus is probably much more common than previously thought and the lethality per infection is up to five times lower than previously assumed. The real lethality could thus be well below 0.1% and hence in the range of strong seasonal influenza.”
http://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1
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‘the usual antibody tests that measure antibodies in the blood (IgG and IgM) can recognize at most one fifth of all Covid19 infections.’
The number of infected in New York is likely much higher than 7%.
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That is one ‘probably’ and one ‘could’ too many, to hang hats on.
00
Paper Antibody Test
There is another type of test called a “Paper Test”.
As far as I can make out a monoclonal antibody to the virus is sprayed on a paper strip. The strip is exposed to patient’s saliva and the “paper antibody” reacts to virus in the saliva. The test is not checking antibodies in the patient it is checking for Virus.
The tests have been dismissed as not very accurate since they miss 50% of the cases found by the PCR test. That seems to be a misrepresentation. The tests are Accurate but not as Sensitive as the PCR. That does not mean they are not useful. They could be very useful. They do not register for patients who have a Low Viral Load. Most of those patients are in the recovery phase and are no longer infectious.
The huge advantage of these test is that the result is obtained in 10 minutes. Even better they can be very cheap and hence patients can be tested over and over again at little cost.
A few patients may be missed early in the infection when the virus is replicating rapidly, but the test will become positive within a few hours and hence a test the next day will be positive.
I hope our Governments adopts these test very soon.
Hat tip to David Middleton who gave the references here:
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/07/interferon-beta-reduced-risk-of-severe-covid-by-80/#comment-2349008
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This is the excellent (as always) MedCram video on the paper test:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7Sv_pS8MgQ
This is why I advocate for the test. $1-2 a pop, 10 min turnaround, and catches people with viral loads high enough to be contagious. Much more useful than the PCR test which is over-sensitive, expensive and may take days for results in high volume situations. the paper test associated with proper quarantine would fix the VIC problem in days.
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If the cost is so low, why not do 3 tests inside of 12 hours, for $3 to $6 USD, and firm up the results from ~50% sensitivity and confidence with 1 test, to ~75% confidence in the result of 2 tests, or 87.5% confidence in the cumulative result probability from 3 tests? You’re then approaching PCR confidence level inside of 12 hours for only $3 to $6 dollars.
And if you get a PCR test that’s positive, you then (belatedly) test again, to verify? Well that’s $200 already.
You could do 3 paper tests (or even 2 inside 4 to 6 hours) as a high confidence recon, then 1 PCR test to verify, for about $103.
Catches it quickly, reduces spread very fast, and halves the price.
00
Does heat make a difference? I keep being told that science says it does, but at this time of year states like Arizona, Texas, Florida and California can be sweltering but are some of the worst affected
21
It could also be the result of an uptick in illegal immigration seen along the Southern border. It started ramping back up in May, at least according to the apprehension rate.
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration
An illegal alien entering the country with the virus would probably not seek medical treatment and become a super spreader as would the others the coyotes smuggled across the border with them.
20
As I’ve pointed out many times now, the data in late March and early April showed that it spreads about 25% faster in warmer weather. But no one bothers to just check this against the currently available data.
Why don’t you, Tony?
00
The “herd immunity” paradigm does not seem to be working. Look at Sweden and New York (and other high death rate areas). For the moment anyway, they are doing well. Deaths are as close to zero as it’s going to get. And there is the assumption that anitbody tests are a good measure, which also appears to be innacurate: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1 Nothing about this pandemic makes a lot of sense.
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Yes, indeed,
The virus does not comply with the administrative borders that men have created. What is the herd that we are talking about? World, (North) America, USA, New York State, NY city, Manhattan, a hospital or a nursing home? Maybe we had herd immunity in some ships – there where no people left to infect while they were sailing. The situation changes once new passengers come.
Closing a country tightly enough to stay immune with zero cases is very difficult. No border wall in the USA will do it. New Zealand, North Korea?
20
This “study” only puts out what the Insane Left wants people to hear, and be afraid. Herd immunity “far off”. Test, test, test, must test everyone, even (especially) against their will. Only vaccines can save us now, and only after years of lockdowns, to show it’s “normal”.
Jo Nova is utterly blind, in her acceptance of such “science”.
The virus is NOT in the air, it settles out immediately (because it STICKS, people, no matter how small and “light” it is). Just don’t touch unsanitized surfaces and then touch your face, especially nose and mouth. Masks are worthless, and worse for healthy breathing. “Social distancing” is fine to teach little kids, but only little kids, as we teach them not to eat things they pick up off the floor.
This site has become a public health hazard, broadcasting manufactured, evil fear, for the political benefit of the Insane Left.
96
FYI, there’s a thoroughly Insane Right present within the global discourse as well, and they also consume, echo and spruik what they want people to imbibe and think.
Which is not a science discussion. On this site there’s (mostly) a science discussion.
Your comment only sews useless partisan politics and accusation into the discussion.
0/10
20
Here are two early-July WSired articles on herd immunity:
“Covid-19 Immunity May Rely on a Microscopic Helper: T Cells
Researchers have been looking beyond antibodies to understand how immunity to the new virus might work—and how to design a vaccine.”
Gregory Barber 07.10.2020
https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-immunity-may-rely-on-a-microscopic-helper-t-cells/
“The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for Covid-19: When will a disease stop spreading through a population? The formula is simple, but the variables are much more complicated.”
Kevin Hartnett 07.12.2020
https://www.wired.com/story/the-tricky-math-of-herd-immunity-for-covid-19/
20
Looking at the Victorian figures for 21/07/2020 :
Active cases = 3,630
Hospitalisations = 200 ( 5.5 % )
Deaths = 40 ( 1.1 % )
Death from flu in 2019 = 334
Is it really worth destroying an economy by draconain lockdown?
As to the Swedish deaths – it would have been the original nasty version of the virus.
Now however the Cell paper has identified currently in Italy and Australia its a mutated weaker version, so top hold up the Swedish case for the current virus version I dont think is a valid comparison, and certainly I think Victoria is massively overreacting.
The Victorians refuse to release hospitalizations comorbidity information deaths details, and it appears if we did know, the sick boogeyman game they are playing would be exposed…..
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Sorry….23/07/2020 figures…
10
Steve
I just posted this in Frday unthreaded but saw your comment here and thought it relevant, so here goes again
—— aaaa
Interesting. This new study claims that lockdowns had very little impact on death rates and nor did closing borders
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8553929/Lockdowns-DONT-work-study-claims.html
Our own chief health officer said yesterday that lockdown in the UK was probably not needed as rates were falling before the official lockdown was implemented back in March
Huge factors are smoking, obesity and age.
The uk now has a large cohort of over 85’s , which is double that of 15 years ago. This pandemic could not have happened here at the turn pf the century. We are the fattest in Europe, with all that implies for associated health issues and also we have the lowest rate of smoking in Europe as once again this has Been flagged up as a major factor, in as much smokers are much less likely to catch the virus.
Add in the care homes scandal and that hospitals were dangerous places to be ill in and the chances of anyone in the community below 80 not living in a care home or having to go to hospital actually dying of the virus were very small.
41
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/07/new-study-covid-infected-only-1-7-of-us-population-in-april-herd-immunity-still-far-off/#comment-2349871
00
If you see something that is absurd, look for what the absurdity accomplishes. You will thereby have found the purpose of the absurdity.
I suggest this COVID-19 thing has been an absurdity from the get go. What has it accomplished?
1. It almost crashed the worlds’ economy.
2. It scared both adults and children into cooperating with hyper control who issued edicts without any legitimate foundation in fact or law.
3. It turned nations of free peoples into cooperative captives.
4. It has greatly prolonged the natural process of obtaining herd immunity and thereby failed bringing the virus under early control.
5. We must stay locked down until we create the perfect cure thereby preventing the creation of 99.999% immunity.
6. It allows the power and control bigots to claim “I didn’t mean for this to happen”. Thereby allowing them to skate free and clear of any responsibility for there almost universal mistakes. eg. China et.al.
Bottom line: the concept of the basic natural right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness has been erased from our thinking. Thus, the elimination of the Constitution of the United States was the fundamental purpose behind the COVID-19 scam from the get go.
The next step is even worse!
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‘Bottom line: the concept of the basic natural right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness has been erased from our thinking. Thus, the elimination of the Constitution of the United States was the fundamental purpose behind the COVID-19 scam from the get go.’
Bureaucracy and its creepy globalism has us by the throat.We hafta’ keep supporting Ridd and other freedom fighters. https://beththeserf.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/55th-edition-serf-under_ground-journal/
32
This is worse though.
Anyone who deliberately perpetrated this will have thier day in court….have no doubt on that.
I suggest a Covid Nuremberg Trial.
20
Whether it was a “fundamental” purpose (implying conspiracy) or simply a fortuitous opportunity to experiment, there is no doubt in my mind that sinister minds are learning a great deal about what they can get away with in a supposedly “free” society.
It would be all too easy to propagate new outbreaks and hot-spots anywhere you need extra “control” and by the way even small radical groups could do it. This includes your usual middle east culprits or your new BLM Antifa types.
Community Organizing may have a whole new meaning and its leadership a new and powerful tool at their disposal.
20
On the contrary, even traditional political Conservatives like Ronald Reagan, Margret Thatcher and John Howard repeatedly spoke of people needing to take responsibility for their actions, including their responsibility to others.
00
I’m not sure the antibody surveys are giving the true picture of resistance in the population. The fact that the epidemics peak and flatten, then die out so quickly is indicative that a large proportion of any population has natural resistance. A recent paper from the University of Oxford, see link below, posits that 30% may be naturally resistant and herd immunity is effectively reached at ~ 20% infection spread.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1.full.pdf
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This could have ended months ago:
https://principia-scientific.com/how-the-fake-hydroxychloroquine-narrative-was-created/
plus a better solution (not as well tested):
https://forbiddenknowledgetv.net/dr-richard-bartlett-budesonide-cured-100-of-my-patients/
21
The web address is-
https://principia-scientific.org/how-the-fake-hydroxychloroquine-narrative-was-created/
10
Thanks
00
Jo,
Have you seen some of the work by Nic Lewis on herd immunity and heterogeneity?
Or the papers on T-cell immunity and older Corona virus infections and their Abs?
Since we know that many people (30-50% or more) get a milder version or fight it off easier there is definitely heterogeneity in infectivity and ability to spread the virus. This can be biological (blood type or strong immune system versus co-morbidities OR biological due to having had a similar-enough Corona virus in the past few years to give some protection) or it can be demographic/job/behavior related. So some people may not spread the virus much since they get a mild case with few symptoms but still wear a mask or just are not shedding much virus (yes, I know that some asymptomatic could spread it more as well) and others may be a bartender that sheds a lot of virus and then goes out and parties in large groups and is a super spreader or a traveling salesperson before things were shut down.
with homogeneity (most naive assumption) with an Ro of 2 to 3, the models will say you need 60-80% exposure before herd immunity. But, with heterogeneity, it can be much lower (20-40%) to reach herd immunity. This may explain why cities, countries and states that had a lot of cases early are not seeing rebounds now. In Louisiana, it is not New Orleans and surrounding areas seeing new cases, it is other places in the State. It is likely that the Ab tests developed for Covid-19 will NOT detect most cases of people that had a similar virus a few years back as it won’t detect the Abs they developed or their T-cell immunity. So, the numbers immune or partially immune may be much higher and many places may be much closer to herd immunity than we think.
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The issue is getting a previous common coronavirus doesn’t provide full sterilizing immunity to that same coronavirus even 12 months later. IF that is the case, why are we hoping that cross-reactive T cells will provide sterilizing immunity in preventing covid?
Don’t get me wrong, I hope I have lots of anti-coronavirus T cells that will cross-react with the SARS2 virus. I certainly think it will prevent me getting severe disease. If I had a magic wand and could provide every healthy person a nasal spray bottle with a small amount of some live OC43 virus to put in their nose – I would do that. I think it would help… but I think we would all still get mild covid.
Anyway, back to reality, with the advice to stay at home in Australia extending back to March, it is likely people are getting infected by less common coronaviruses as well. For many people their antibody immunity to those viruses is fading fast, sadly.
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I never said full sterilizing immunity.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities
Using the compare with traffic accidents and 200000 covid19 deaths, I get (scaling to 100%):
91% >65yrs
9% <65yrs
Less than 65 can go back to work and greater than 65 will need extra protection.
HCQ-Zn-Zpak and budesonide provide extra protection where needed (see above). We can outdo what Sweden did.
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Interesting article but from early May. I’d like to see this run again now. Doing the calculation in numbers of deaths and comparing to flu and other causes is a good way to look at it. But to look at it from other angles would also be helpful (I think my reasoning is ok here). If there really are 5-20 times as many people that are exposed and infected (even if mild) to Covid-19 virus, then another way of looking at the risk is what percent of people exposed in various age groups die. Of course, we would then also need good numbers for this for flu. Just another way of looking at it, but still would not change the fact that (if the numbers from today are the same as May 7th) this is more dangerous than flu at many ages but it would point to part of the reason it’s more dangerous is it is more contagious (and this has been affected by flu and pneumonia vaccines)
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I’ve tried to turn the music up so loud, that it drowns out the latest doomsday scenarios.
Now I’m just getting pissed off.
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Today, few people understand or revere the free enterprise system or what little is left of it.
Prof. Milton Friedman’s 1980 video series explaining how free enterprise works should be compulsory viewing in schools, universities, for politicians and the Sheeple. It is available free on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL0364ACCE6C7E9D8E
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Sorry, this was meant to be in the unthreaded thread.
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The problem with lockdowns and the massive economic cost is how much price do we put on saving a statistical life?
As for our our own known life we would all want up to the world’s known resources spent on saving it because that’s what at stake for us as individuals but would we be prepared to incur the same Covid19 costs every flu season to remove that statistical risk? Clearly we don’t and now that it’s clear all the costs of trying to eradicate Covid have been in vain are we going to continue doubling down on the costs? That’s the conundrum now for those who still believe that ever more Gummint can protect us all from everything that goes bump in the night.
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Clearly we don’t and now that it’s clear all the costs of trying to eradicate Covid have been in vain are we going to continue doubling down on the costs?
It has not been in vain at all, my State of QLD is almost completely free of COVID-19, most of Australia is in fact, and we’re living perfectly normal lives and the economy is almost fully functioning again here because we did in fact eliminate the virus. It has not been “in vain” at all.
Lots of people above claim to be so over all the the ‘doom’ spreading, except many of them are actually the ones spreading a story of ‘doom’ and certain defeat, and that COVID-19 is unbeatable, which is “CLEARLY” false.
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And as it becomes ever more abundantly clear that massive Gummint intervention has failed naturally the true believers have to ramp up the risk rhetoric.
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Except it hasn’t failed. It worked as hoped and envisioned wherever the proper procedures were put in place and followed through with. The only places it hasn’t work is where this didn’t happen and people broke the rules, as in Victoria.
Snap out of it and quite spreading doomer-esque mumbo-jumbo in here, passed-off as factual remarks plus assorted false and fake ‘dilemmas’ thanks, “observa”.
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I’m still not convinced that COVID -19 testing (PCR) has any real function in determining the scale or relativity of the disease. There are too many biases that are in play for any voluntary large scale testing to provide real signs as to how COVID-19 is spreading throughout the community. The same for any antibody testing. Testing numbers, particularly for the PCR test, is just indicative of peoples willingness to be tested, or the availability and easy access of testing stations. In the last few days there has been some publicity about the 2008/9 H1N1 Swine flu epidemic in the US. The CDC announced abruptly (July 2009) that no more testing was to be done, it was pointless because they knew it was an epidemic and really any further testing wasn’t going to alter that fact. Also, the CDC thought it was scaring people. H1N1 killed 1/2 million people, 80% of which were UNDER the age of 65. Obama was President back then, so this was a Democrat virus. There was no lockdown, no face masks.
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Given the extreme politicisation of COVID-19 in the USA, any ‘study’ in this respect should be viewed with scepticism. Be reminded that the blue states / cities, where the recent riots, looting and mass demonstrations occurred, are in the main still the leading ‘death states’.
Just think about that.
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How are multiple independent researchers collecting medical data suddenly, and in concert, changing their findings because of external political opinions?
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The North Carolina legislature funded a COVID19 population study that runs through the rest of the year. The current results show positive antibody level between 12-15%.
https://www.wakehealth.edu/Coronavirus/COVID-19-Community-Research-Partnership/Updates-and-Data
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On Foxnews this morning, research from Mt Sinai Hospital shows a ‘70s drug called Fenofibrate can reduce symptoms of Covid to that of the common cold.
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Herd immunity may come at much lower community infection rates than originally thought.
1. https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/
and
2. https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/
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Thanks Andrew,
Will read again.
One question in my mind is; if 80% are immune how come the virus spreads so readily?
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It looks like the second wave of case numbers in Florida have peaked, and is ready to start decreasing.
blob:null/6e23f4d4-7c0e-4430-8259-f4daf1f0cb48
same for the death rate (not shown), which is odd because they should lag case numbers by 2-4 weeks.
See here for details…
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
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That is not how the immune system works. I have no antibodies to the 1958 Mao flu but I reckon I am immune to it after having it in 1958.
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“many people with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 demonstrate so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the new coronavirus, even if they have not tested positively for antibodies”
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-immunity-covid-higher-shown.html
Just because you do not have antibodies, it does not mean you were not infected.
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Human immune system made easy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9QAyP3bYmc
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And I read, at the same time last year 430 had died in Australia of influenza.
The government is isolating the wrong people and killing livelihoods.
The beauty of life is, by definition, always at risk if death.
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People who enjoy life make death and gravity fight for it.
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Rarely post but kindly ask to consider 3 criteria .
1. Koch’s postulate
2. PCR test design
3. WHO benefits
Show me any research from anywhere that followed point 1 for SARS 1 or 2
Novel corona rna originally isolated from lung fluid of 9 symptomatic patients
termed COVID-19 because of clinical presentations not seen in previous corona
Patients. The rna totalled 300 or so base pairs computer modelling did the rest.
PCR Test was never designed to assess infectiousness period. The present test is modelled
on the above.rna Test shares 85.1 percent to flu rna. Therefore the best the test can do
is identify this rna in people ( fairly meaningless as there is no gold standard see point 1)BUT NOT WHEN THEY HAD IT OR WHAT PHASE THE PATHOGEN IS IN. Again it was never designed to assess infectiousness.Testing can be positive weeks after infection
may have occurred or not occurred . Without other diagnostic tests espousing cases and contact tracing is pandemically assanine.
WHO benefits …no brainer big pharma and vaccine research. ( How the hell they even think they can come close to a vaccine without
Point 1 completed is stunning).Any virologist would understand the above and would require greater confirmation of its iisolation and purity and science around viral load ( load versus infectiousness).We have patchwork science driving socially paralysing public policy
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Indeed.
1. https://off-guardian.org/2020/06/27/covid19-pcr-tests-are-scientifically-meaningless/?fbclid=IwAR2jn-7-W7hg4c6TQ1vJIogyvgz0I3UJR3EJss4XC06RhoL8oBv16izuilI
and
does it even exist (as a stand alone ‘novel’ virus)?
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06hFyHaivHc
Noted, I don’t get the detailed science here but I get the message!
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1. easy https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095368/
2. So what. It has been shown clearly that virus decected via PCR in the airways is highly likely to be available for infection. This is not refuted by detection of non infective particle.
3. Gibberish.
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“3. Gibberish”
Takes one to know one.
Really, one very lame and useless opinion. Stick to science would you?
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Well it is even without the faciful WHO bit. Point 1 is not required for 3. Koch’s is qualitative and the quant work has been done for vaccine work to proceed. The paper I listed gives an idea of the work to establish Koch’s and the the fact that it is not yet achieved is unsurprising. The additional point to make is that in modern times the intent of the postulate is achieved many times over using molecular taxonomic methods. Transmission is directly observed but not as Koch stated – such methods are methods are much more recent.
I do wonder what prompted Pandumic to post his/her one post ever.
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When the Black Lives Matter Demonstrations and Riots happened it allowed this virus to move between strangers causing what had been under control to start growing again across the US except New York City. This one clinic in Queens (which is part of New York city) found that 68% of the people had antibodies. It appears that New York City has achieved herd immunity. It also appears Sweden has reached herd immunity.
Maybe up to a third of the survivors have gotten permanent damage to their bodies. Because of that I would really like contact tracing to work. However with the political climate in the US I doubt we will be able to get to any solution other than herd immunity. In order to defeat Trump there are people that dont care how many lives need to be sacrificed. Just look at how rigged the hydroxychloroquine trials were. One trial was giving near lethal doses, none used zinc, and others did not provide the medicine as soon as possible, and the one that did it early did not have enough have participants to determine if it would have any impact on mortality.
.
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That’s about it. Never think human coteries,
like chimps, do not collude.
H/t Gramsci and Allinsky / Rules for Radicals,
etcetera.
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R0 is 2.5 reportedly (https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/victoria-coronavirus-r-number-hits-unacceptably-high-25-c-1121187); there’ll be thousands of cases by the weekend, an actual crisis.
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This was posted in response to a comment which has disappeared but which said, roughly, Victorians are rubbish.
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2.5?
Me thinks not.
likely very close to 1.0 here in Vic….maybe under.
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Oh, broken threader innit. Cheers Jo.
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Major new paper by Gomes et al. on herd immunity plus an up date from Nic Lewis.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1
https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/
Put this mad rush for a vaccine back in the shade!
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https://www.bitchute.com/video/QoD4GgHrsWdY/
This has been removed, and is being removed, quickly on all SM channels – YT, Facebook, Twitter.
No censorship?
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