Congratulations on the updates. Refresh speeds are much improved. The Reply title now says Reply To XXX if the response is to a previous comment.
The Preview does not work for me yet.
Reading the comments on the “200,000+excess votes in Pennsylvania” thread I am surprised how many commenters uncritically accepted the article at face value.
In the article it stated that some counties had not yet entered their data into SURE. Did it not dawn on the 17 Republican lawmakers (and commenters to the thread) that the discrepancy between enrolled voters and votes cast was very possibly due to that and nothing else? At the very least they should have posited that possibility. But they didn’t and the Pennsylvania Secretary of State quite correctly took them to task
This sort of careless cock-up is typical of the Trump campaign round the courts and clearly shows why he has lost all but one of his lawsuits.
I think SURE records voter numbers rather than votes cast,
“A comparison of official county election results to the total number of voters who voted on November 3, 2020 as recorded by the Department of State shows that 6,962,607 total ballots were reported as being cast, while DoS/SURE system records indicate that only 6,760,230 total voters actually voted.”
The US Constitution required a Presidential election on 3 Nov 2020.
States, by their Constitutional Laws, were required in their time zone, on election day, to Close the Polls at 8 PM and begin the final counting of votes.
It is 58 days hence, and some cannot seem to finish their counts. Including the SURE malarkey.
These are Legal, Constitutional, Deadlines. At the State and Federal levels.
How absurd. More votes than voters, miraculous swings in vote tallies hours after shutting down vote counting, but reopening later with hundreds of thousands of “new” votes?
So, I yield to your imagination.
Please do address Mr. Pulitzers hack of the GA voting system in real time, on his phone.
after how many weeks? if they havent why was the vote certified? like all the other debates on here I guess you can dream up as many what ifs as you like to promote an entrenched position.
No sophocles I won’t become “confounded, befuddled and confusticated “because Yarpos like Lance and perhaps you too has not factored in the delays occasioned by lawsuits and recounts. Having to deal with recount after recount it is not surprising that other things have had to be put to one side. Additionally yarpos seems not to understand the difference between votes cast and voter numbers with regard to vote certification.
New Chum.
Thanks for this, I’ve just sent it to a dumb ox relative of mine, a Biden lover, and asked him to let me know what particular things he is opposed to. Since his knowledge is limited to ABC sound bites I’m not expecting him to answer. And therein lies the problem.
Had a quick look at your “latest” and was pleased to see that there was no further mention of the issue we had words about previously.
Your claim was that there was flux up to the surface but no transmission of energy across the Earth_Ocean/Atmosphere interface, a claim which I found disturbing because it signalled that you had no understanding of thermodynamics.
If only you could take the extraordinary capacity you have for analogies, e.g. the kettle example, and link that to proper thermodynamic process analysis you would get somewhere.
Unfortunately you don’t clearly articulate what you are trying to show and misconstrue thermodynamics as being the same as pure maths: they are not the same.
You can’t just take a thermodynamics equation from a text book and plug in values without understanding the basic process you’ve describing; that’s a disaster.
I see you have rubbished Willis E and although I’m not familiar with his work I suspect that he might also have seen a problem in what you are doing.
First step: what exactly is it you are trying to prove?
The analogy of the kettle with the thermal imaging camera was magnificent!
I am still thinking about that.
Clearly the energy is coming from the heating element at the bottom and leaving at the top (as steam). The thermal gradient is minimal. Indeed, during the initial warming it is actually hotter at the top, thanks to circulation ( convection).
The huge fireworks on Sydney Harbour are going ahead tonight, however no crowds are allowed … about a million punters (both locals and travellers) usually line the long foreshore for the event. I went to a couple many decades ago.
I may be old-fashioned, but it seems to me if you’re going to cancel the crowd, then you should cancel the fireworks too.
All you’re doing is spending a great deal to give the twenty thousand richest people in Sydney with harbour views a free show.
And Happy New Year to you … from Melbourne (The Paris of the South).
Surely if there is a huge firework display then many people will come out to watch it?
That is the point … almost all the vantage points from which you can see the Sydney Harbour Bridge have been barricaded or roped off. And because of the steep and rugged geography of the city, there aren’t that many places where the bridge is in sight – it’s not like the Eiffel Tower in Paris.
Being on a boat would be the best thing. Happy New Year!
The Sydney New Year fireworks are an international spectical seen by many millions on TV . The local “live” audience is trivial compared to the. TV viewers.
The majority of Waterfront viewers are there for the whole days “event” type party atmosphere, which the 10 min firework display attracts.
More detail on why the open sea surface can never exceed 32C.
There are two important features of moisture in Earth’s atmosphere. The first is that moist air, at the same temperature and pressure as dry air, is LOWER density than dry air. The second is that once the TPW exceeds 30mm, there is a point in the atmosphere where a parcel of dry air can be supported by the parcel of moist air below; termed the level of free convection. This later feature means that radiative condensing above the LFC can create a dry zone above a moist, even saturated, zone.
The top chart shows what happens to water vapour before and after cloudburst above an ocean surface of 27C. The before state is based on saturated zone below the level of free convection and completely dry zone above the LFC. The water column is 72.2mm. The ice forming level is above the LFC so the sky is clear. The convective available potentential energy would be 5955J/kg.
During cloudburst, the moisture laden air bursts upward because it is more buoyant than dry air. As it expands, it cools, Assuming all the potential energy is extinguished by the cooling, 9.7mm of precipitate will form and it is assumed that all ends up on the surface. The end result after the cloudburst is humidity of 78% with a TPW of 62.5mm and cloud above 3200m, the ice forming level for the new state.
Making this curve gave me a new clue about the ocean shutters. That becomes clear in the second chart. I looked at what happens with the LFC and the ice forming level as the ocean surface temperature increased. If it could get to 34C then the LFC and ice forming are at the same altitude. That means that the sky never gets to a clear state. It would have perpetual cloud cover. In those circumstances it would be cooling rapidly because outgoing long wave radiation is still leaving the surface and working its way up the column.
The radiating temperature for the high level cloud produced during cloudburst is around 230K; corresp[onding to 160W/sq.m. It appears that the balance condition occurs around 28C. Because the ocean surface looses considerable heat beyond that temperature.
The closure of the two plots on the second chart are like closing the gap in the ocean shutters.
Alice Springs headed for one of the coolest Christmases on record – (their abc, wed 23 dec, 2020)
Unmolested climate records by the BoM can be so embarrassing to the alarmists …
Hottest Christmas days:
Sydney: 36.8 C in 1886
Adelaide: 41.2 C in 1888
Darwin : 36.8C in 1892
Melbourne : 40.7C in 1907
Canberra: 37.1C in 1957
Perth: 42.0C in 1968
Brisbane : 39.2C in 1972
… All records back when carbon (sic) was at ‘safe’ levels – without a carbon (sic) tax.
RickWill,
There could be strong support for your model if you can work out the reasons why there is so commonly a flattish cloud base about 300m above the sea and/or land surface. You can see this base which can have a little or a lot of cover at many times on the clock and in many local micro climates, as if there is a flat, widespread heat engine operating in this particular space. Something particular happens in that 300 m that is likely to be interwoven with your model. I do not have the met training do help with suggsted mechanisms. Geoff S
Most of the WMO world and regional temp records for high temps are quite old. Its noticeable that many of the records for low temps are much younger. Unprecedented warming?
As the first of this blog’s readers are almost there: Happy New Year!
I hope that you will be able to celebrate the closing of 2020 with friends and relatives; looking forward to a more rational 2021.
May I humbly resolve that you resolve to (continue to) calmly educate those around you so that they do not come possessed by the fear du jour fabricated by media, governments and those who would rule over us. While it is only they that can change their mind, you can provide them with the foundations (in education) to support that change.
First step is to listen to them first to identify a common ground. Expand your conversation, standing on that common ground.
Be patient. Remember that people have a lot invested in the opinions that they hold most dear.
They may not change their mind immediately; or ever. But they may have gained an appreciation that you are prepared to take the time to communicate with them on an individual basis. You’re not just feeding the chickens.
A Happy New Year to all. My family is a scattered family but at least I have an ex, and 3 children, and a grandson, in Perth to celebrate the end of the year. May 2021 be a good year for all.
Its funny how excited they are about such a small amount of storage given the scale of thei demand. Must be a lot, its got Mega in front of it. I am reminded of the repeated line in Idiocracy “its got electrolytes” spoken by people with no clue. These are our energy decision makers around the world.
Mr. David, please do ask the intermittent power crowd precisely how they plan to provide “ancillary services” such as voltage and frequency support.
Ask a Power Engineer what the function of a “designated swing unit” is and how that is necessary.
Ask a Power Engineer and a Controls Engineer what happens when downstream voltage is higher than feed in voltage at the upstream thermal generator and how this affects system stability, protective relaying, voltage stability, and frequency control.
Ask a Power Engineer about reactive power and how / why that is necessary to prevent system collapse?
Ask a Power Engineer about what happens when EVs are attached to a grid in large numbers. Who pays for the infrastructure upgrade, service entrance upgrade, substation replacements, transmission and distribution line costs, switchgear, right of way, etc.
I’m not attacking or faulting you in any way. I’d simply like to see what Their answers are to Your questions.
Ask Public Utility companies what their Load Flow Analysis is for levels of 20% through 80% unreliable power generation and how they will abide by their Charter obligations to the Public Utilities Commission in each State with regard to outages, restoration of power, and obligations under FERC and PUC mandates to provide power at “the most cost effective rates”. Maybe Rate Increase Hearings ought to be subject to such measures. Legislatures may well promote visions of intent, but Ratepayers have rights under Law with respect to Public Utilities in the US.
Just ask the questions. The answers ought to be very amusing.
Sydney has had a very cool December. Now, I’m just waiting for the BOM (ie: Bureau of Misinformation) to fake its data and tell us that December was one of the hottest on record (how I wish there could be, at least, a Senate investigation into this lying entity).
We won’t get an inquiry into BoM until this inquiry into the banks proves, beyond reasonable doubt, that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming.
‘Financial regulators will join banks and insurers in being grilled by a parliamentary committee poised to investigate financial institutions for pulling back on lending and insurance to mining-related businesses because of climate change.
‘Government and Labor members of the Joint Standing Committee on Trade and Investment Growth on Monday fought over the need for the inquiry that will be led by climate change sceptic, Queensland Liberal National MP George Christensen.’ Fin Review
I’m not tech-savvy enough to know how to post links and stuff (yes, I know, there’s buttons right above the dialog box … ), but I stumbled upon this from the NY Times (and NO!!! I am NOT a regular reader or subscriber to that rag), about the ‘virtues’ of the ‘hydrogen’ economy.
Obviously, the promoters of this have never studied Thermo, have they? Sure, this works on the small scale, and might even work to an extent on an industrial scale, but the dependence upon non-dispatchable energy sources is the Achilles Heel.
And, where did those non-dispatchable energy sources come from, anyway? Inquiring minds want to know … … …
The hydrogen economy is like Covid…it keeps coming back after you thought it was over. This is at least the third run, but I gave away a book on it written in the 80’s so am a bit short on the history.
You have identified one problem with him using solar PV power, so intermittent electricity/hydrolysis means around 35% efficiency. And I wonder how it would work in the northern winter. Perhaps every believer should take up residence in The Bahamas? And the energy usage to compress the hydrogen gas? There is a problem in that hydrogen is very light so to get enough fuel on board a car requires very high pressures in the tank, and even then the range could be limited.
Was watching an interesting show about tides aound the world, their effects, and how they are used by humans. I had to fast forward though the Chinese bit where they made out the Chinese were caring traditional fisher folk, while their factory ships are out raping the worlds oceans.
Back to your Hydogen topic, they featured a spot in Scotland where various attempts at working tidal power were being tested. The best model so far was a bit like a surfaced submarine with turbine attachments. The energy was being used to produce and compress Hydrogen that then went to power geneators that supported docked ships. The dream was to power those ships (ferries and small cargo vessels) The one thing that never got mentioned was the vast cost of all this infrastructure to run a few generators, apart fom muttering about government grants (never taxpayer grants are they?)
Whenever I hear about the ‘wondrous’ new electrical power generating huh, ‘advances?’ I’m always drawn to the total power output, and it’s always tiny, but the hope is it can be scaled up to generate 2000+MW you know, by the day after tomorrow.
It takes me back to the very early 1970s, when as a young and newly minted electrical tradesman in the RAAF, I met a young WRAAF in the tavern, and got talking to her about music, as you do, in a young man’s attempt at ‘chatting up’. She showed me the box containing her new record player she had just purchased from the ASCO store next door. It was the size of a small briefcase, just a little thicker. She opened it up. It had a small record player, a small amp and two speakers, but it all folded away really neatly.
She mentioned to me that it was just amazing how much power they got out of a tiny little unit like this.
As an interested electrician, I looked at the ‘blurb’ on the box it came out of, and there it was in capitals no less, and prominently displayed from this little National Panasonic portable record player unit.
1,000 MilliWatts.
An exercise in how to make something so tiny seem so large.
One whole Watt of thumping thundering power!
I smiled at the time, safe in my electrician’s knowledge, not game to say a single word, but it brought right home to me (almost for the first time really) how electrical trade knowledge was totally and utterly misunderstood by the general public, and that the manufacturers could say whatever they wanted to and get away with it.
Nothing has changed. Only the numbers become even more outrageous, and the public is even more gullible and ‘ready’ to believe
In those days you needed a big Ferguson audio transformer to deliver 3 Watts RMS. But, in line with what you say, they invented “music power” with a higher number.
I went to a rock concert in Newcastle in the middle of Winter in the early 70’s, and the roadies all stood out the back behind the big 150/200 Watt amps the guitars were plugged into.
I would have been the only one who knew why they were standing there, arms outstretched.
They were warming their hands from the heat being pumped out by those huge power valves in the 100/150Watt amplifiers.
If you stand in front of the speakers your hearing can be damaged. 150W is a lot of power to feed into the delicate and sensitive amplifier and transducer of the ear.
However in terms of heating 150W does not seem very much.
A tide cycle is about twelve hours, fifty mins and there are 2 slack tides each cycle, let’s say 4 a day. And then there are the neap tides, a couple of days with little run, two per lunar cycle.
‘A new study affirms coral reefs grow when seas are warm and rising. Growth “shuts off” during colder, falling sea level periods. Consequently, the Great Barrier Reef has experienced growth in the last 150 years – especially in recent decades.’ (Notrickszone)
Relations between the United States and China are at perhaps their lowest ebb since they were normalized in 1979. Yet, when it comes to finance, competition is only part of the story. While the US government is pursuing financial sanctions against China, American financial firms are lining up to do more business there – and China is more than happy to welcome them. Will this disconnect persist under President Elect Biden?
Over the last four years, US President Donald Trump’s administration has often employed financial levers in its clash with China. For example, it has taken action to block federal government pension plans from investing in Chinese equities, and enacted sanctions against Chinese officials in Xinjiang Province (over human-rights violations) and Hong Kong (over the mainland government’s introduction of draconian national security legislation).
Trump also recently signed an executive order banning investments by US residents in 31 Chinese companies deemed to be aiding the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army. And, earlier this month, he signed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which requires publicly traded foreign firms to comply with US auditing rules within three years or be delisted.
The HFCAA aims to bolster the transparency of financial reporting and protect investors, not least by revealing if companies are controlled by their government. While it applies to all foreign companies listed on US exchanges and selling securities to US residents, it is clearly directed at Chinese firms: The 217 US-listed Chinese firms – with a combined market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion – do not allow foreign audits for “national security” reasons.
Barring an alternative solution, a large number of Chinese firms may have to look elsewhere to raise capital in three years. Thanks to the US dollar’s status as the world’s main reserve currency, a next step could be US restrictions on China’s access to dollar payments, clearing, and custody systems, with adverse consequences for China’s trade, capital markets, and supply chains.
I doubt the USD will keep its status over the next few years, and am more certain the China will actively move away USD based payments ASAP. Will be interesting to see what really happens.
The prevalence of obesity has become a worldwide phenomenon, and in China, the world’s most populous country, adults are becoming increasingly overweight.
It seems that over the last few decades, China has “absorbed” the best the “West” has had to offer, which includes fast-food restaurants, credit cards, smartphones, apps, and also all the stolen intellectual property, but at the same time imported the worst.
We outlined in 2013 that American influence (“lazy lifestyles”) was quickly spreading across China, creating a massive and unspoken diabetes crisis.
Fast forward seven years later, shocking new statistics show the percentage of overweight Chinese adults has skyrocketed since the early 2000s, according to BBC News.
China’s National Health Commission wrote in a new report that in 2002, 29% of adults were overweight. As of 2020, the figure is now 50% of adults are classified as overweight, of whom 16.4% are obese.
Approaching 10:30 PM Wyoming time here on the other side of the Big Pond, and it is 2021 in the US (somewhere — — not here in Casper, but close enough for me).
Just finished a couple of (American) beers, and my ‘victory dance’ (h/t Will Smith in Independence Day), so time to call it a night, and call it a year (such as it is).
Happy New Year to all, my best to Jo, those unsung heroes, the Mods of her fabulous website, and thanks for helping to keep us all sane during these trying times.
Victory to President Trump, and down with all the traitors, wherever they may be,
Congratulations on the updates. Refresh speeds are much improved. The Reply title now says Reply To XXX if the response is to a previous comment.
The Preview does not work for me yet.
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it seems to be/almost working for me
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“Preview” has been working for me today.
Cheers
Dave B
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now for the downdates
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why? or was a bit of negativity needed just in case someone was happy?
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A list of Trump accomplishments (as you can imagine is long)
https://dmanalytics1.com/click?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmagapill.com&i=11&d=A7d-cWNqSzGiGCPigFOglA&e=aaprjohn%40northnet.org&a=REhZbXIbRfSyAHiSIFBK7A&s=pAUp4iIUE2Y
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Excellent.
Thanks.
How can they not give this man another term as President?
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Reading the comments on the “200,000+excess votes in Pennsylvania” thread I am surprised how many commenters uncritically accepted the article at face value.
In the article it stated that some counties had not yet entered their data into SURE. Did it not dawn on the 17 Republican lawmakers (and commenters to the thread) that the discrepancy between enrolled voters and votes cast was very possibly due to that and nothing else? At the very least they should have posited that possibility. But they didn’t and the Pennsylvania Secretary of State quite correctly took them to task
This sort of careless cock-up is typical of the Trump campaign round the courts and clearly shows why he has lost all but one of his lawsuits.
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Fair go Ian, Peter Fitzroy was on it; Jo Nova’s is a broad church.
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=
I did notice that. I assumed that uploading even more results into SURE would
make the discrepancyy worse , not better.
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I think SURE records voter numbers rather than votes cast,
“A comparison of official county election results to the total number of voters who voted on November 3, 2020 as recorded by the Department of State shows that 6,962,607 total ballots were reported as being cast, while DoS/SURE system records indicate that only 6,760,230 total voters actually voted.”
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Ian:
The US Constitution required a Presidential election on 3 Nov 2020.
States, by their Constitutional Laws, were required in their time zone, on election day, to Close the Polls at 8 PM and begin the final counting of votes.
It is 58 days hence, and some cannot seem to finish their counts. Including the SURE malarkey.
These are Legal, Constitutional, Deadlines. At the State and Federal levels.
How absurd. More votes than voters, miraculous swings in vote tallies hours after shutting down vote counting, but reopening later with hundreds of thousands of “new” votes?
So, I yield to your imagination.
Please do address Mr. Pulitzers hack of the GA voting system in real time, on his phone.
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With regard to the time factor to which you refer you seem not have factored in the delays due to vote recounting and the various lawsuits from Trump.
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after how many weeks? if they havent why was the vote certified? like all the other debates on here I guess you can dream up as many what ifs as you like to promote an entrenched position.
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(wiping tears from eyes)
Yarpos, don’t play with the poor boy like that …
he might become confounded, befuddled and confusticated.
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No sophocles I won’t become “confounded, befuddled and confusticated “because Yarpos like Lance and perhaps you too has not factored in the delays occasioned by lawsuits and recounts. Having to deal with recount after recount it is not surprising that other things have had to be put to one side. Additionally yarpos seems not to understand the difference between votes cast and voter numbers with regard to vote certification.
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New Chum.
Thanks for this, I’ve just sent it to a dumb ox relative of mine, a Biden lover, and asked him to let me know what particular things he is opposed to. Since his knowledge is limited to ABC sound bites I’m not expecting him to answer. And therein lies the problem.
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Thanks for the list. Now I have memorize them for my next Leftist encounter which will be tonight New Years.
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Greetings Aussies and Trumpeters!
How y’all doin?
Wanted to wish y’all a happy upcoming new year!
Please enjoy my latest:
http://phzoe.com/2020/12/29/geothermal-denial/
Thank you and god bless
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Happy new year back at you Zoe and the best of luck with your endeavours.
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Happy New Year Zoe.
Had a quick look at your “latest” and was pleased to see that there was no further mention of the issue we had words about previously.
Your claim was that there was flux up to the surface but no transmission of energy across the Earth_Ocean/Atmosphere interface, a claim which I found disturbing because it signalled that you had no understanding of thermodynamics.
If only you could take the extraordinary capacity you have for analogies, e.g. the kettle example, and link that to proper thermodynamic process analysis you would get somewhere.
Unfortunately you don’t clearly articulate what you are trying to show and misconstrue thermodynamics as being the same as pure maths: they are not the same.
You can’t just take a thermodynamics equation from a text book and plug in values without understanding the basic process you’ve describing; that’s a disaster.
I see you have rubbished Willis E and although I’m not familiar with his work I suspect that he might also have seen a problem in what you are doing.
First step: what exactly is it you are trying to prove?
KK
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“but no transmission of energy across the Earth_Ocean/Atmosphere interface”
Absurd strawman
21
No Zoe, when I said that there had to be movement of that energy across the interface you condemned me.
By its very nature a flux involves movement: you rejected that.
KK
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The analogy of the kettle with the thermal imaging camera was magnificent!
I am still thinking about that.
Clearly the energy is coming from the heating element at the bottom and leaving at the top (as steam). The thermal gradient is minimal. Indeed, during the initial warming it is actually hotter at the top, thanks to circulation ( convection).
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9-16-20 CUSEF is indeed a major player in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s organizational apparatus for conducting united front work in the United States, the evidence for which will be discussed in further detail below. https://jamestown.org/program/the-china-u-s-exchange-foundation-and-united-front-lobbying-laundering-in-american-politics/
………………………………………………………..
12-8-2018 Beijing is buying up media outlets and training scores of foreign journalists to ‘tell China’s story well’ – as part of a worldwide propaganda campaign of astonishing scope and ambition….
Almost 6,000 people were applying for just 90 jobs “reporting the news from a Chinese perspective”. Even the simple task of reading through the heap of applications would take almost two months. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/dec/07/china-plan-for-global-media-dominance-propaganda-xi-jinping
………………………………………………….
American media cooperated by repeating uncritically Beijing’s reports that it bears no responsibility for the spread of COVID-19. In fact China’s state-controlled television has made U.S. media reporting part of its internal propaganda campaign.
https://intpolicydigest.org/2020/05/26/china-s-communist-party-and-its-american-media-enablers/
………
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“A New Year’s Look At WUWT”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/30/a-new-years-look-at-wuwt/
Relevant here too IMO
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Wow they have changed , thanks another Ian .
00
The huge fireworks on Sydney Harbour are going ahead tonight, however no crowds are allowed … about a million punters (both locals and travellers) usually line the long foreshore for the event. I went to a couple many decades ago.
I may be old-fashioned, but it seems to me if you’re going to cancel the crowd, then you should cancel the fireworks too.
All you’re doing is spending a great deal to give the twenty thousand richest people in Sydney with harbour views a free show.
And Happy New Year to you … from Melbourne (The Paris of the South).
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(Paris of the South) LOL. I always thought that title was disputed between Wonthaggi, Warracknabeal, Werribee and Wherever.
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Shame on you … you left out Warrnambool 🙂
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Which isnot that far from Upper Kayakable.
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Surely if there is a huge firework display then many people will come out to watch it?
Perhaps you can report on the events and the results on new years day?
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That is the point … almost all the vantage points from which you can see the Sydney Harbour Bridge have been barricaded or roped off. And because of the steep and rugged geography of the city, there aren’t that many places where the bridge is in sight – it’s not like the Eiffel Tower in Paris.
Being on a boat would be the best thing. Happy New Year!
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Many people in Greater Sydney never see the Habour Bridge or even the sea from one year to the next
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The Sydney New Year fireworks are an international spectical seen by many millions on TV . The local “live” audience is trivial compared to the. TV viewers.
The majority of Waterfront viewers are there for the whole days “event” type party atmosphere, which the 10 min firework display attracts.
00
More detail on why the open sea surface can never exceed 32C.
There are two important features of moisture in Earth’s atmosphere. The first is that moist air, at the same temperature and pressure as dry air, is LOWER density than dry air. The second is that once the TPW exceeds 30mm, there is a point in the atmosphere where a parcel of dry air can be supported by the parcel of moist air below; termed the level of free convection. This later feature means that radiative condensing above the LFC can create a dry zone above a moist, even saturated, zone.
The linked image has some calculated data that aligns well with observations:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhA9GiA7DZRYlNygG
The top chart shows what happens to water vapour before and after cloudburst above an ocean surface of 27C. The before state is based on saturated zone below the level of free convection and completely dry zone above the LFC. The water column is 72.2mm. The ice forming level is above the LFC so the sky is clear. The convective available potentential energy would be 5955J/kg.
During cloudburst, the moisture laden air bursts upward because it is more buoyant than dry air. As it expands, it cools, Assuming all the potential energy is extinguished by the cooling, 9.7mm of precipitate will form and it is assumed that all ends up on the surface. The end result after the cloudburst is humidity of 78% with a TPW of 62.5mm and cloud above 3200m, the ice forming level for the new state.
Making this curve gave me a new clue about the ocean shutters. That becomes clear in the second chart. I looked at what happens with the LFC and the ice forming level as the ocean surface temperature increased. If it could get to 34C then the LFC and ice forming are at the same altitude. That means that the sky never gets to a clear state. It would have perpetual cloud cover. In those circumstances it would be cooling rapidly because outgoing long wave radiation is still leaving the surface and working its way up the column.
The radiating temperature for the high level cloud produced during cloudburst is around 230K; corresp[onding to 160W/sq.m. It appears that the balance condition occurs around 28C. Because the ocean surface looses considerable heat beyond that temperature.
The closure of the two plots on the second chart are like closing the gap in the ocean shutters.
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The Indo Pacific Warm Pool stops the westward movement of La Nina cold water.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-195.43,2.24,530/loc=155.028,-14.921
Would the cool waters reach the Indian Ocean if the warm pool wasn’t there?
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Alice Springs headed for one of the coolest Christmases on record – (their abc, wed 23 dec, 2020)
Unmolested climate records by the BoM can be so embarrassing to the alarmists …
Hottest Christmas days:
Sydney: 36.8 C in 1886
Adelaide: 41.2 C in 1888
Darwin : 36.8C in 1892
Melbourne : 40.7C in 1907
Canberra: 37.1C in 1957
Perth: 42.0C in 1968
Brisbane : 39.2C in 1972
… All records back when carbon (sic) was at ‘safe’ levels – without a carbon (sic) tax.
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RickWill,
There could be strong support for your model if you can work out the reasons why there is so commonly a flattish cloud base about 300m above the sea and/or land surface. You can see this base which can have a little or a lot of cover at many times on the clock and in many local micro climates, as if there is a flat, widespread heat engine operating in this particular space. Something particular happens in that 300 m that is likely to be interwoven with your model. I do not have the met training do help with suggsted mechanisms. Geoff S
40
Most of the WMO world and regional temp records for high temps are quite old. Its noticeable that many of the records for low temps are much younger. Unprecedented warming?
31
there was a link with that post , maybe it will turn up later
20
As the first of this blog’s readers are almost there: Happy New Year!
I hope that you will be able to celebrate the closing of 2020 with friends and relatives; looking forward to a more rational 2021.
May I humbly resolve that you resolve to (continue to) calmly educate those around you so that they do not come possessed by the fear du jour fabricated by media, governments and those who would rule over us. While it is only they that can change their mind, you can provide them with the foundations (in education) to support that change.
First step is to listen to them first to identify a common ground. Expand your conversation, standing on that common ground.
Be patient. Remember that people have a lot invested in the opinions that they hold most dear.
They may not change their mind immediately; or ever. But they may have gained an appreciation that you are prepared to take the time to communicate with them on an individual basis. You’re not just feeding the chickens.
P.S. I like the new, snappy site.
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Lots of good stuff happened in 2020 and I give thanks to God for His provision and grace to help us through the unpleasant stuff.
The demonic NWO and its attempted theft of our freedoms that masqueraded as a “pandemic” however, can eat our collective soiled shorts….
Just stay away from any vaccine of any flavour….
Im sure 2021 will be a much better year.
70
On the plus side the Covid panic cancelled all the silly climate marches.
81
Mods,
Recent changes are working just fine for me, PC with Windows 10 and Chrome. Much more rapid and easy. Can you do the same on me? Geoff S
[If only we could Geoff!]AD
40
A Happy New Year to all. My family is a scattered family but at least I have an ex, and 3 children, and a grandson, in Perth to celebrate the end of the year. May 2021 be a good year for all.
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My latest, correcting the earlier version and adding lots of new data.
https://townhall.com/columnists/davidwojick/2020/12/30/new-york-cant-buy-its-way-out-of-coming-blackouts-n2582278
Batteries cannot make renewables reliable.
61
Good article, thanks for that.
Its funny how excited they are about such a small amount of storage given the scale of thei demand. Must be a lot, its got Mega in front of it. I am reminded of the repeated line in Idiocracy “its got electrolytes” spoken by people with no clue. These are our energy decision makers around the world.
40
She’ll be right mate. Defunding police will pay for it all.
50
Mr. David, please do ask the intermittent power crowd precisely how they plan to provide “ancillary services” such as voltage and frequency support.
Ask a Power Engineer what the function of a “designated swing unit” is and how that is necessary.
Ask a Power Engineer and a Controls Engineer what happens when downstream voltage is higher than feed in voltage at the upstream thermal generator and how this affects system stability, protective relaying, voltage stability, and frequency control.
Ask a Power Engineer about reactive power and how / why that is necessary to prevent system collapse?
Ask a Power Engineer about what happens when EVs are attached to a grid in large numbers. Who pays for the infrastructure upgrade, service entrance upgrade, substation replacements, transmission and distribution line costs, switchgear, right of way, etc.
I’m not attacking or faulting you in any way. I’d simply like to see what Their answers are to Your questions.
Ask Public Utility companies what their Load Flow Analysis is for levels of 20% through 80% unreliable power generation and how they will abide by their Charter obligations to the Public Utilities Commission in each State with regard to outages, restoration of power, and obligations under FERC and PUC mandates to provide power at “the most cost effective rates”. Maybe Rate Increase Hearings ought to be subject to such measures. Legislatures may well promote visions of intent, but Ratepayers have rights under Law with respect to Public Utilities in the US.
Just ask the questions. The answers ought to be very amusing.
40
Sydney has had a very cool December. Now, I’m just waiting for the BOM (ie: Bureau of Misinformation) to fake its data and tell us that December was one of the hottest on record (how I wish there could be, at least, a Senate investigation into this lying entity).
100
We won’t get an inquiry into BoM until this inquiry into the banks proves, beyond reasonable doubt, that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming.
‘Financial regulators will join banks and insurers in being grilled by a parliamentary committee poised to investigate financial institutions for pulling back on lending and insurance to mining-related businesses because of climate change.
‘Government and Labor members of the Joint Standing Committee on Trade and Investment Growth on Monday fought over the need for the inquiry that will be led by climate change sceptic, Queensland Liberal National MP George Christensen.’ Fin Review
00
I’m not tech-savvy enough to know how to post links and stuff (yes, I know, there’s buttons right above the dialog box … ), but I stumbled upon this from the NY Times (and NO!!! I am NOT a regular reader or subscriber to that rag), about the ‘virtues’ of the ‘hydrogen’ economy.
Obviously, the promoters of this have never studied Thermo, have they? Sure, this works on the small scale, and might even work to an extent on an industrial scale, but the dependence upon non-dispatchable energy sources is the Achilles Heel.
And, where did those non-dispatchable energy sources come from, anyway? Inquiring minds want to know … … …
Vlad
Let us see if this works: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/business/hydrogen-power-cars.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab
30
The hydrogen economy is like Covid…it keeps coming back after you thought it was over. This is at least the third run, but I gave away a book on it written in the 80’s so am a bit short on the history.
You have identified one problem with him using solar PV power, so intermittent electricity/hydrolysis means around 35% efficiency. And I wonder how it would work in the northern winter. Perhaps every believer should take up residence in The Bahamas? And the energy usage to compress the hydrogen gas? There is a problem in that hydrogen is very light so to get enough fuel on board a car requires very high pressures in the tank, and even then the range could be limited.
Thanks Vlad, and a Happy New Year for you.
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Preview is working, but comments get put into moderation.
[Still ironing out a few glitches, if you get caught by the filter you will be released asap.]AD
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Was watching an interesting show about tides aound the world, their effects, and how they are used by humans. I had to fast forward though the Chinese bit where they made out the Chinese were caring traditional fisher folk, while their factory ships are out raping the worlds oceans.
Back to your Hydogen topic, they featured a spot in Scotland where various attempts at working tidal power were being tested. The best model so far was a bit like a surfaced submarine with turbine attachments. The energy was being used to produce and compress Hydrogen that then went to power geneators that supported docked ships. The dream was to power those ships (ferries and small cargo vessels) The one thing that never got mentioned was the vast cost of all this infrastructure to run a few generators, apart fom muttering about government grants (never taxpayer grants are they?)
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Whenever I hear about the ‘wondrous’ new electrical power generating huh, ‘advances?’ I’m always drawn to the total power output, and it’s always tiny, but the hope is it can be scaled up to generate 2000+MW you know, by the day after tomorrow.
It takes me back to the very early 1970s, when as a young and newly minted electrical tradesman in the RAAF, I met a young WRAAF in the tavern, and got talking to her about music, as you do, in a young man’s attempt at ‘chatting up’. She showed me the box containing her new record player she had just purchased from the ASCO store next door. It was the size of a small briefcase, just a little thicker. She opened it up. It had a small record player, a small amp and two speakers, but it all folded away really neatly.
She mentioned to me that it was just amazing how much power they got out of a tiny little unit like this.
As an interested electrician, I looked at the ‘blurb’ on the box it came out of, and there it was in capitals no less, and prominently displayed from this little National Panasonic portable record player unit.
1,000 MilliWatts.
An exercise in how to make something so tiny seem so large.
One whole Watt of thumping thundering power!
I smiled at the time, safe in my electrician’s knowledge, not game to say a single word, but it brought right home to me (almost for the first time really) how electrical trade knowledge was totally and utterly misunderstood by the general public, and that the manufacturers could say whatever they wanted to and get away with it.
Nothing has changed. Only the numbers become even more outrageous, and the public is even more gullible and ‘ready’ to believe
Tony.
Summer Beer, 50% more Summer. Just drink it!
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In those days you needed a big Ferguson audio transformer to deliver 3 Watts RMS. But, in line with what you say, they invented “music power” with a higher number.
50
I went to a rock concert in Newcastle in the middle of Winter in the early 70’s, and the roadies all stood out the back behind the big 150/200 Watt amps the guitars were plugged into.
I would have been the only one who knew why they were standing there, arms outstretched.
They were warming their hands from the heat being pumped out by those huge power valves in the 100/150Watt amplifiers.
Tony.
40
If you stand in front of the speakers your hearing can be damaged. 150W is a lot of power to feed into the delicate and sensitive amplifier and transducer of the ear.
However in terms of heating 150W does not seem very much.
30
A tide cycle is about twelve hours, fifty mins and there are 2 slack tides each cycle, let’s say 4 a day. And then there are the neap tides, a couple of days with little run, two per lunar cycle.
Hardly dispatchable.
70
Here is why H2 cannot and will not work.
https://afdc.energy.gov/files/pdfs/hyd_economy_bossel_eliasson.pdf
the only thing H2 can do is provide feedstocks for Ammonia production and Liquid Hydrocarbon synthesis.
Other than that, it is simply useless rubbish.
50
So drug addicts get the vaccine before the elderly in New York, didn’t even double check this story because Cuomo has form .
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9100363/Cuomo-revealsin-drug-addicts-rehab-COVID-19-vaccine-elderly.html?fbclid=IwAR2cvHJ-e5ZG4G1L9r5CSz9sFHuCU7pJNhzBel52hJop1XqeEDOXxVX1hDo
20
2020 IS OVER, LET’S DANCE THE NIGHT AWAY
30
Like it, like it a lot
00
‘A new study affirms coral reefs grow when seas are warm and rising. Growth “shuts off” during colder, falling sea level periods. Consequently, the Great Barrier Reef has experienced growth in the last 150 years – especially in recent decades.’ (Notrickszone)
30
Could we finally be seeing the start of something big towards checking ballots .
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/georgia-senate-judiciary-subcommittee-unanimously-passes-motion-audit-fulton-countys-absentee-ballots-using-method-outlined-jovan-pulitzer/?fbclid=IwAR0GoAJLQFv6hm-jOrtf6IyTta8EgJQbgBOzms0pBg5TsDXMnzHS84zzJ1w
20
the gift of freedom that lies so easily before thee now will be no more! https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-gift-of-freedom-that-lies-so-easily.html
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A Messy Financial Divorce for the US and China
Relations between the United States and China are at perhaps their lowest ebb since they were normalized in 1979. Yet, when it comes to finance, competition is only part of the story. While the US government is pursuing financial sanctions against China, American financial firms are lining up to do more business there – and China is more than happy to welcome them. Will this disconnect persist under President Elect Biden?
Over the last four years, US President Donald Trump’s administration has often employed financial levers in its clash with China. For example, it has taken action to block federal government pension plans from investing in Chinese equities, and enacted sanctions against Chinese officials in Xinjiang Province (over human-rights violations) and Hong Kong (over the mainland government’s introduction of draconian national security legislation).
Trump also recently signed an executive order banning investments by US residents in 31 Chinese companies deemed to be aiding the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army. And, earlier this month, he signed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which requires publicly traded foreign firms to comply with US auditing rules within three years or be delisted.
The HFCAA aims to bolster the transparency of financial reporting and protect investors, not least by revealing if companies are controlled by their government. While it applies to all foreign companies listed on US exchanges and selling securities to US residents, it is clearly directed at Chinese firms: The 217 US-listed Chinese firms – with a combined market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion – do not allow foreign audits for “national security” reasons.
Barring an alternative solution, a large number of Chinese firms may have to look elsewhere to raise capital in three years. Thanks to the US dollar’s status as the world’s main reserve currency, a next step could be US restrictions on China’s access to dollar payments, clearing, and custody systems, with adverse consequences for China’s trade, capital markets, and supply chains.
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I doubt the USD will keep its status over the next few years, and am more certain the China will actively move away USD based payments ASAP. Will be interesting to see what really happens.
30
China is heavily in debt. The BRI will need to be curtailed among other things.
20
More Than Half Of Chinese Adults Overweight As Obesity Becomes Latest Health Crisis
The prevalence of obesity has become a worldwide phenomenon, and in China, the world’s most populous country, adults are becoming increasingly overweight.
It seems that over the last few decades, China has “absorbed” the best the “West” has had to offer, which includes fast-food restaurants, credit cards, smartphones, apps, and also all the stolen intellectual property, but at the same time imported the worst.
We outlined in 2013 that American influence (“lazy lifestyles”) was quickly spreading across China, creating a massive and unspoken diabetes crisis.
Fast forward seven years later, shocking new statistics show the percentage of overweight Chinese adults has skyrocketed since the early 2000s, according to BBC News.
China’s National Health Commission wrote in a new report that in 2002, 29% of adults were overweight. As of 2020, the figure is now 50% of adults are classified as overweight, of whom 16.4% are obese.
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Happy New Year, Australia. Got < 3 hrs left to join you. Time zone stuff.
https://theglobalherald.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WW9IHH-Gf24.jpg
30
Approaching 10:30 PM Wyoming time here on the other side of the Big Pond, and it is 2021 in the US (somewhere — — not here in Casper, but close enough for me).
Just finished a couple of (American) beers, and my ‘victory dance’ (h/t Will Smith in Independence Day), so time to call it a night, and call it a year (such as it is).
Happy New Year to all, my best to Jo, those unsung heroes, the Mods of her fabulous website, and thanks for helping to keep us all sane during these trying times.
Victory to President Trump, and down with all the traitors, wherever they may be,
Vlad
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Word to Australian national anthem changed without being put to the people, without being put to parliament, just changed by Scomo.
It’s what happens when a government thats drunk on lockdown power does what it likes.
If I don’t sing the word will I be arrested?
Modern Australia is indeed a young country compared to the land of modern aboriginal history.
If Austrailia needs to celebrate our aboriginal history, we could have a day where we turn off electricity, and everyone could bbq a roo … no wheel …
80
Its only a word, because as a nation we are so much older now.
Anyway nobody takes it seriously, we already know one and three equals four.
00