JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
I found a useful paper on convective instability:
https://cwg.eumetsat.int/global-instability-index/
Although the indexes are relatively simple they agree with the data I am producing from my high vertical resolution single column model.
I particularly like the images compared in Figure 1:
https://cwg.eumetsat.int/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Figure_01.png
Comparing the images show how closely TPW aligns with convective instability. Not much happens until TPW reaches 40mm. That is close agreement with the 38mm I determine to be the minimum TPW for cyclic cloudburst.
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Also worthwhile noting that a large proportion of the tropical oceans are convectively unstable due to the high atmospheric moisture content.
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What is TPW?
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Total Precipitable Water – the most important atmospheric component. It makes clouds and limits the temperature of tropical oceans. It is the gas that makes Earth habitable for human life.
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Afternoon all,
Something sort of new from the ABC. A report about a 5 year Qld research study on vitamin D:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-14/qld-vitamin-d-supplement-colds-flus-qimr-research/13057290
The story is based on:
https://www.qimrberghofer.edu.au/media-releases/clinical-trial-finds-vitamin-d-does-not-ward-off-colds-and-flu/
…
Seems to me that the researchers, and reporters have missed the two most important findings from the research:
1. That a dose of 60,000 IU is safe; but
2. It is insufficient to ease the course of the Covid virus; and
3. They’ve not commented on others’ finding that more regular intake of vitamin D ( daily, weekly ) is more beneficial.
…
For the record: I’m still taking 5000 IU twice per day and am targeting a blood level of 50 ng/ml. Will be having another blood test soon.
…
I’m interpreting the timing of the ABC report as being is response to Federal MP Craig Kelly’s advocacy of it.
Cheers
Dave B
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From the study:
‘In blood samples collected from randomly sampled participants throughout the trial, the mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 114·8 (SD 30·3) nmol/L in the vitamin D group and 77·5 (25·2) nmol/L in the placebo group.’
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30380-6/fulltext
Full study isn’t free so can’t check for flaws. Mercola recommends a vitamin D blood level of 40 ng/mL (100 nmol/L) to 60 ng/mL (150 nmol/L). Maybe if the placebo group had lower vitamin D. It is sus that they used people with a vitamin D level that the medical establishment believes is ok (above 50 nmol/L) and did not include a deficient group. They should have measured co-factors like magnesium in the participants as well.
A summary of other studies:
‘Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths’
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/4/988/htm
The vitamin D hammer:
‘In those patients who do have influenza, we have treated them with the vitamin D hammer, as coined by my colleague. This is a 1-time 50 000 IU dose of vitamin D3 or 10 000 IU 3 times daily for 2 to 3 days. The results are dramatic, with complete resolution of symptoms in 48 to 72 hours.’
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4463890/
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Any mention of zinc?
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‘The D-Health Trial was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.’
That should make people question the study. The NHMRC is a disgrace. They ignore most of the evidence in their reviews. They seem to exist to rubber stamp whatever government or industry wants.
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It does appear to reinforce what we already realised that the ABC suffers from FAS (fact antithesis syndrome).
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A cynical look at what’s ahead:
“Joe Biden’s Two Left Wings: Everything about the Democrats’ politics is pushing our president-elect the wrong way”
https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2021/01/25/joe-bidens-two-left-wings/
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Thank you Roger Knights for the link but I found it anything but cynical. Pragmatic with a touch of gonzo perhaps but definitely not cynical.
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How apt is the analogy of white ants (termites in many places)? It is interesting that perhaps Trump got the white ants so excited, that they streamed out of their various hidey holes in colleges, bureaucracies, HR departments in private businesses, and government, and have been running around in the sunlight. Now white ants really don’t like sunlight, they are much healthier quietly devouring organisations through committees, than having their ideas exposed to the full glare of open examination. It’s a hope.
Trump is going to be a social outcast – “Thank God Mabel we have put these dmn nouveau rich in their place. Pass the caviar darling.”
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The biggest agrarian movement in India since 1947.
‘According to non-profit Oxfam, around 80 percent of farm work in India – including sowing, winnowing, harvesting, and other labor-intensive processes and non-mechanized farm occupations – is undertaken by women. The heavy lifting on farms, often done by the men, has also fallen upon their shoulders since November, when the protests started.’ (The Diplomat)
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Joe Biden is looking to be heading to set the record for the shortest term ever:
Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene said she would file articles of impeachment against Joe Biden the day after he steps into office.
https://rumble.com/vcs9ib-rep.-marjorie-green-announces-shes-filing-to-impeach-biden-on-jan.-21.html?mref=23gga&mrefc=2
Impeachment’s in the wind …
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I hear from elsewhere that the US Military won’t accept Cheatin’ Joe as a Commander in Chief.
Maybe that’s because they can’t tell the difference between him and the CCP … 😀
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How would that work with Dem majorities in both houses? Nice bit of theatre though.
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Pointed out elsewhere that would suit the plan perfectly – Joe got rid of by the other side
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seems convoluted and could open up a lot of corruption linkages when he could simply retire on medical grounds or be Epsteined.
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SGT report with info you may find uplifting
Trump and the art of war, Last mover advantage
https://www.bitchute.com/video/T4EwqDPvBcE0/
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The Epoch Times on what was happening around the shooting
https://www.bitchute.com/video/g7EsY2Ki66pp/
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China is killing us with coal (my latest research)
https://www.cfact.org/2021/01/11/china-loves-coal-far-more-than-wind/
China is generating almost twice as much electricity as America and two thirds of that juice is coming from coal. Wind is a token generator at 5% and is not allowed to interfere with coal power. Anyone who thinks China is going to phase out coal for wind is simply green dreaming. Coal is central to China’s power.
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The left never lets facts get in the way of the preferred narrative. The combination of leftist delusional thing and CCP propaganda will see China painted and green as can be.
We are no better and home , in fact quite stupid as we dont have the sense to retain or build newer coal plants. Having watched SA go over the cliff and splat on the rocks, they happily follow.
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Agree totally. Here is some interesting info: Winter Coal Shortages Reveal Chinese Energy Vulnerabilities
Apparently our coal has diverse ways to end up in China, despite the holdup unloading ships.
Reportedly Whitehaven Coal have released a statement: “China’s restrictions have altered seaborne coal trade flows where, instead of being delivered to China, Australian coal is now finding customers in alternate destinations including India, Pakistan and the Middle East, and traded coal historically delivered into these markets is finding its way into China,”
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Agreed, David. China will soak up any quality of coal, be it from Ozland or elsewhere. China is building a new coal-powered generator every month, and they could not care less about CO2 emissions. And as for wind power…China would likely go nuclear, rather than rely on wind. It’s just a shame that the Green Slime has so much influence over the intellectually challenged “ëlitists” of the first world (hi, Saint Greta)
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What we have here is free and open debate. I thank Jo for enabling that. There are so many on this blog that have way more qualifications than I. What I love is that I can stand on the soapbox and say my piece. This is freedom. We may respectfully disagree, yet we are able to debate.. Thankyou Jo, and thankyou contributors.
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I noticed this morning that American Thinker has shout down its comments section. They cant do real time moderation so cant risk deplatforming due to the reaction of the big tech thought police to their readers comments. In the main it seemed pretty rational discussion there, god knows what they are doing at Zero Hedge where things are a bit more testy.
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Ahh… I am a numnut… insert “we may respectfully agree or disagree” typed too fast… take care all!
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Your comment still made sense. The ‘agree’ bit is almost superfluous. People naturally read between the words, filling in the blanks. Your meaning was quite clear.
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yep I had to go back to reread to even spot the concern. It reads fine.
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Question on global warming. Is the surface temperature of the moon measured and recorded? If so, is it stable or has it been going up, corresponding to minor temperature rise on earth?
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Elite America doesn’t like flyover America much, and the feeling is mutual.
The kind of society the Democrats are establishing works by the application of force.
It is relatively easy to apply in Government, especially in the Federal government.
It appears the courts are corrupt, and we know the agencies are.
But, with out a tradition of a single government top down; a nation-state based on a tribe & a chief or king,
dissent may be messy.
The EPA, for example, as a huge agency, is filled with anonymous 27 year old lawyers who wouldn’t know the difference
between a wetland and a sidewalk puddle. They probably get huge gratification making rules impacting thousands of farmers,
and feeling powerful, and getting attaboys at their crack parties with the 27 years old lawyers from the other agencies.
But when it comes to enforcement in the hinterland, life may not be so easy for those who go out in the field, especially if they
are enforcing rules that have as much contact with reality as unicorn breeding. Sure, they can cripple one guy in a test case, and have.
Unless they are an existential threat, in which case the fellows neighbors might leave the field agent upside down in the pig trough.
And so, to enslave, gun control has to be first, so the few with guns can control the many with pitchforks.
Stripped of all stupid rhetoric to the contrary, the right to bear arms was intended as a countervailing power to the monopoly of force by the government.
Both sides understand this clearly.
The fact that one can say “both sides” suggests that the phrase “my fellow Americans” is now devoid of meaning, and the differences between the authoritarians on the left
and the constitutionalists on the right is too great to be bridged by compromise; censorship is quite different than debate.
The left does expect the censored and canceled to resist, which will be the excuse for further repression. But the left has already established the principle that a state may offer “sanctuary” to its citizens (and non-citizens) from federal law. This sort of affairs does not generally end well.
One the one hand, it has been demonstrated that arbitrary authority is pretty easy; we fell in line with insane COVID rules. On the other hand the idiocy and hypocrisy has been on full display, and any reservoir of trust in government held by the people has been fully dissipated. I expect very considerable social distress; one side want to remake our schools and businesses, and the other simply wants to have functional schools and businesses again.
While we sort it out, any in the rest of the world who might have felt that the US was a protective ally might want to look elsewhere.
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Secession? I think there is some talk of it in Texas.
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Perhaps the two coasts could merge with Canada , which seems to have gone full Trudeau. Then flyover country could become the Real USA with sea access via Texas. The major flaw is leftists fleeing their own mess and moronically still voting Dem. The sooner they establish a border to control that the better.
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It begins thus:
On Monday night, the Monument Board of Trustees declared Monument, Colorado, to be a sanctuary from restrictions on businesses. This small town in El Paso County voted 7-0 on “A resolution reasserting the rights of the Town of Monument and its residents and condemning the unconstitutional limitations imposed upon their freedoms by the governor of Colorado.”
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From website/newspaper: the Gazette.
There must be hundreds of small businesses and churches in Melbourne who would cheer that ruling.
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This is my opinion only: I think it not shared by many.
It may help those not in the US to understand that there are not the two traditional layers in American life, the Democrats, and the Republicans,
both big tents representing a concensus of patriotic citizens, with sufficient overlap such that the 20% or so most liberal Rebuplicans could be Democrats,
and the 20% or so most conservative Democrats could be Republicans. There were common goals, a level of patriotism that began at the waters edge, and
certain shared values. Significant difference in state governance could be accomodated in a broad federated republic.
There are now More. There are traditional Republicans; generally the party of non-urban America. There is a Democratic Party. There is a Progressive party.
There is a Citizens of the world elite aligned with a number of large corporations who have a trans-national view of things– the US is simply a host to be managed to
their convenience and a lucrative market (but one of many); the civic concerns of its citizens are, however, of no concern. The difference between the Democrats and the progressives, who share a tent, is over the use of constitutional norms and other traditional values; the propagandists would have you believe they are united, but
in fact the real world aims of many of the coalition members are directly at odds. Absent a common enemy; the Democrats will have a hard time keeping their factions in line,
thus the need to keep Trump hatred alive even after he has left the stage; and pretend that all actions are a ‘response’ to the evil initiatives of Trumpism.
There is the complicating ground truth that the progressive left is centered in our cities, and the Covid experience has proven that the the city is a luxury good that may no longer be very important, or very useful, or very desireable. High density cities are very expensive to operate, and politic has layered on a social and regulatory cost of its own;
if not from the taxes of wealthy residents where will the money come from to sustain these dinosaurs? What benefit does the countryside get, that it would tax itself any of he virtues the urban centers claim? This is a further fracture on the left; not all blue states are urban.
Unlike many of the worlds countries, which try to resolve this with a multi party parliment….and some have had 50 governments in 50 years, we’ll need to reform into two broad groups, and not for the first time. So the way to view America is a very confused place, where the citizens will be choosing sides on two or three large issues, divided between two political parties, to allow one of those parties to form a government.
One of the most common things you may hear from Americans in the next four years, on both sides, is “I didn’t leave my party, my party left me”.
Business buys legislators of both sides, which means in all cases, they are funding you, but also funding your opposition. The relationship we have with our large multinational companies may be at the center of the coming debate. The amount of influence from outside our borders may also be central.
AUthoritarians may grab the government and end the American experiment…we’ll know rather quickly as we either will, or will nto regain civil liberties after COVID restrictions are no longer necessary.
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Richard, as far as I can tell, internationally, COVID restrictions will be part of our lives for a very long time, whether or not we need them.
The governments in the US, in the UK, in Australia, and New Zealand will not readily relinquish their new-found powers without a fight, or at least a good reason.
Lockdowns will be written into legislation. At the drop of a hat, as has been seen in Queensland recently, even if one person has Covid, the whole state must be locked down.
This is madness!
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Let me make sure I got this right. Evidence is now emerging that the January 6 riots at the Capital Building were known to be planned sometime prior to the 6th. Both the FBI and Capital Police knew and notified the Sergeant at Arms in both the House and Senate. Both Sergeants at Arms have resigned. They reported directly to the Speaker of the House or Senate Majority Leader. They either did not inform their bosses, or their bosses ignored the warning. Why wasn’t President Trump informed? Surely, he would have said something if he had known. Or did he know and let if play out for other reasons unknown at this time? This does not add up! If Speaker Pelosi knew before the 6th and went ahead with the impeachment yesterday, what does that say about her and our congressional leaders? Where are the two sergeants at arms now and what new positions do they now hold or will hold? The implications here are staggering.
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First day of Tasmania’s annual summer festival , temps in the mid to low teens and raining with a possibility of snow higher up so thank god for globull warming get it where you can and while it lasts .
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Hi Jo
I know it has become unfashionable to discuss the climate issue on what was once the best global warming skeptic blog on the web but if anyone is still interested the UN has just released its climate report for 2020. No surprise that they predict climate catastrophises are coming because 2020 was the hottest year since the last hottest year ever.
They then go on to make a statement that could have come strait out of the National Socialist party of Germanys environmental policy of 1937 encouraging the nations of the world to “make peace with nature”! Not sure what they mean by it. Does it mean nations should stop all agriculture and let the fields return to a “natural” state? Nothing could go wrong with that, could it?
I would suggest that the UN make “peace with science” and stop using half witted scare campaigns in their apparent goal to fulfil Pol Pots wet dream of returning humanity to some imagined pre-historic paradise. That’s what I recon.
As important and interesting as the mad gyrations of the American political system are we need to refocus on other things. The climate kooks and creeps have not gone away!
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Supply some content Don, write a article and submit it , if the trend offends you.
I absented myself for a while in the peak of the Corona madness, but dont mind following the US stuff as I worked there quit a bit. Sometimes I wonder about the level of stupidity as I worked with many very smart level headed people, but even then (late 90s) it was clear that compared with Oz people were starting to walk on eggshells on some topics and felt it necessary to wear their position on some issues on their sleeves. I recall some of then being aghast or bursting into laughter and some of things we would do and say in Melbourne when they were down.
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Good tip yarpos, hope the other 100’s of commenters on this once great blog will follow your sage advice and produce articles to back up some of their wild statements. I will not be holding my breath. Given the current fashion I doubt any “article” on the UNs climate madness would get published here anyway. Wonder why? Rivers of chocolate gold flowing in from disgruntled US citizens looking for a place to air their frustrations? Just asking, no offence intended Jo.
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If you write a reply how can it be deleted. Just asking my friends.
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The moving finger writes
and having writ, moves on,
not all thy regrets and tears
shall remove a line of it
-The Rubaiyat of Omar Kahyam, poet of old Persia
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Its ok, I now know, Lucky, the answer to my question. Aside, I Love your post, you made me laugh, smile and be wiser. Thankyou!!!..
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I rarely want to delete anything but the lack of edit is frustrating. I would really like to be able to fix my spellink errors and typoos.
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What happened to the thread on the vitamin D study?
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The UN’s conclusions on Climate Change is just as accurate as our own BOM (Bureau of Misinformation)’s are. The whole argument of CAGW is now a complete joke…it has become totally political, and related to the UN’s goal of a one-world government. There is no “science” in this debate. The CCP/UN/World Bank takeover of the world will happen, especially if the USA is beholden to the Democrat filth for any length of time
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