JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Claim: Climate Change Driving Doctors out of the Aussie Northern Territory
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/12/claim-climate-change-driving-doctors-out-of-the-aussie-northern-territory/
120
From Carnaveron to Darwin to Cairns, Far Northern Australia is perfectly liveable, with air conditioning. Population is booming in Tropical Queensland.
I’ll guarantee ‘The conversation’ are sitting in totally climate controlled rooms while they talk about how evil Climate Change Warming is the problem and no one mentions man made Global Warming any more. Because after 33 years it’s not true. What is a real puzzle is why there is Climate Change without Global Warming.
So how are the oceans are warming without the air warming? And why CO2 levels appear to be climbing steady without any air warming or any visible signs of human activity, like shutting down most cars and airplanes for a year. Not a bump from a bushfire. Not a vibration from a volcano. Not a wobble from 300,000 giant windmills. It’s as if steady ocean warming causes ocean warming and that causes a increase in CO2, as would be expected.
But surely eminent kangaroo scientist Professor Flannery would tell us? Or did his river front home get washed away in the floods?
262
And there I was TdF, thinking flim flam was a big wombat watcher.
10
And some day a student will get a degree in explaining the extraordinary politics where, as with Al Gore, Greta Thunberg and more, Climate Commissioners were appointed Australian salaried experts in Climate to advise Governments when not one was a meteorologist and the Chief Climate Commissioner himself had no qualifications in mathematics, chemistry, physics, meteorology, geology, geography, biology, computer modelling, statistics or hydrology. To name a few. What he cost the country is in the billions. The Weather Makers should have been how to make a killing out of the weather. Without knowing anything about it.
70
The temperature record in the NT is a dog’s breakfast. Katherine does have some data pre 1980. Very sparse but November and December in 1946 were very much like 2019. Less than a degree lower on average but different site to the modern airport with modern equipment. As you can see with the plot of December mean maximum, there is no obvious trend for almost 20 years, then a massively hotter month.
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cdio/014932_36_12_1367944972562632176.png
You can’t say “unprecedent” when you haven’t got data obtained under the same conditions going back more than a generation, probably not more than 10 years and just data no more than 40.
101
Here is the GISS NASA data for Darwin going back to 1882. You will note it says Darwin AP but it shows data for Darwin PO up to 1942 when it was relocated to the AP.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=ASN00014015&ds=14&dt=1
It looks like a continual warming – that’s the adjusted temp. The light yellow in the background is the unadjusted temp. Looks like Darwin has cooled.
111
So you are saying, and on no evidence, that the PO site and the airport site would have recorded the same values.
Very good, no need to go any further, is there?
314
Perhaps the GPO site may have betta data.
21
Think Peter. Think.
Before you sally into stupidity.
40
There have been adjustments that can’t be due to the shift, but not to correct what is obviously due to a shift.
Their methodology is similar to Berkely Earth. I noticed for my old home town, it was the same combination of PO and AP at BE.
The AP was the PO and AP combined. They also had the PO seperately. For some reason, the PO section of the combined was adjusted differently to the PO by itself. They could pick out phantom changes pre 1947 but not the shift, even though the 3 years of overlap didn’t line up, with the PO annual mean being 0.5 to 0.9°C higher.
It’s rubbish once you dig deeper.
80
Tilba Tilba is the NT authority around here, so I’ll wait for his verdict.
53
Only thing Tilba is an authority on is ideology.
91
It’s interesting how views you agree with are “realistic” and those you disagree with are “ideology” … always been thus I expect.
214
Tilba the expert on Alice Springs water and all things NT.
21
Well robert – at least I have lived in every mainland state and territory – what have you done?
11
Wow that’s utterly amazing was there good water and no days over 35 in the other states and territories?
50
Typical of you and your type you have lived there but learned nothing. Sort of like the Bourbons don’t you think.
70
From the CSIRO (a source you can trust):
Research shows Darwin is continuing to get hotter. Darwin currently experiences about 11 days with temperatures over 35 degrees, which is projected to increase to 43 days over 35 degrees by 2030.
I am no authority, but having lived there for 10-11 years, I can advise that there is a huge difference between a day of 32° and a day of 34° – and on many days you have essentially 100% humidity. We left in 2004 – I don’t recall a day of 35° in the decade prior to that.
I have several friends still there – including two who work as landscape gardeners – they assure me that it is absolutely getting hotter, and that the types of plants that survive and thrive are changing too. Not proof, but indicative information.
But it is an academic debate – it is a really hot place to live and play, whether it’s getting hotter or not, and the notion that it’s “all okay” because of aircon is not realistic … just indicative of someone who hasn’t lived in Darwin or Katherine from October to April. Few people retire there, and it would be hard for a doctor indeed.
And there is a huge difference between the hard, harsh climate of Darwin (let alone inland such as Katherine or Kakadu), compared to the fairly benign and wetter tropical marine climate of the strip between Mackay and Port Douglas. Very different indeed. Darwin is tough, and could become unliveable for all but the essential services.
416
I’ve lived in the tropics all my life and see no change.
161
Not Darwin
29
Showing your ignorance again. The sun can be directly overhead both cities and Townsville is V humid as well.
Since when was “world temperature” measured in Darwin?
171
Showing your arrogance again.
110
Yeah, I dont think it hits -20c in the winter at either of those locations, does it?
40
The question is not whether the weather is changing anywhere. Of course it is. The two cycles driving the weather are the solar cycles and the massive Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the world’s greatest heat sink, the oceans.
The tropics is a special environment because it is totally water moderated which means temperature hardly changes and humidity can be 100%. In lower temperate latitudes the summer/winter temperature range is 40C and in high or desert climates 80C.
All that is being proposed is that mankind is responsible for the 50% increase in CO2 since the 19th century. And with this one wrong statement, we in Australia are all paying the highest electricity prices in the world to prevent something over which we have no control at all, CO2 levels. And we are being told to stop mining, stop farming, stop flying and stop driving and stop eating meat. It is insane and it is not science and trillions of dollars are changing hands.
The proposition is not that the weather changes. Of course it does.
101
No, the question is whether the climate is changing. Of course it is. The primary driver is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Most of this change is anthropogenic, compounded by additional CO2 emissions from warming oceans.
46
Simon do you have a percentage on how much CO2 is being liberated by the warm oceans?
30
El G. For you https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200603130016.htm
the correct question is what is the reduction in rate of uptake?
20
Thanks leaf, Gaia works in mysterious ways. Its plausible.
10
According to Flyboy on the new thread ‘We only contribute 3.5% of the CO2 in the atmosphere.’
Simon its irrational to think this small increase could upset the balance and alter climate patterns.
21
Seriously El G why do you use that distortion.
Firstly warming does reduce ocean CO2 total capacity and changes the equilibrium [CO2] but that is not the same as saying that the ocean is outgassing.
Second, gaia has nothing to do with it. It is physical chemistry and can be replicated on a benchtop.
Thirdly the distortion of 3.5%. Humans are pumping out CO2 into the air and the carbon cycle is moving it between land ocean and sky. The extra human CO2 means that more is remaining in the sky and more is accumulating over time. Again simple equations show that the observed rise is expected from the observed increase from humans.
12
New sinks open up to maintain equilibrium.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/oceans-absorb-carbon-seas-climate-change-environment-water-co2/
10
According to this article from Darwin university the reason for the current slight decline in population are various but being a good lefty uni they are right onto the CAGW scam and reckon one way to increase the population is by allowing the immigration of climate refugees .
That should add a few zero’s to the amount currently seeking refuge from climate change which coincidentally is also zero in number.
61
CAGW is not a scam (well, certainly not the AGW part – I’m less convinced that it will be catastrophic, at least for a while) … AGW is a realistic prediction of the future, and we should respond appropriately, certainly for our kids’ sake – and it is always denied by the fossil-fuel shills on here.
Can you blame me if I suspect you are actually paid by Chevron, Santos, and Woodside, or do you do it all for free?
Anyway – it’s not all that relevant. Those of us who live in the real world know that Darwin is getting hotter, and it is becoming really unpleasant to live in the Top End. Let me know when anyone on here has done six months anywhere up there, starting in October. You really do not have a clue.
317
You keep throwing insults instead of rational replies which is telling , our first trip to the rock was in January about 7 years back and I don’t think we had a day under 40 while there .
We stopped at Cadney Park and did the trip to the Painted Desert and our IPad came up with a message about overheating which was something I’ve never seen again.
We were on our way to Karumba ultimately mighty hot and mighty humid at that time of year but the fishing was simply amazing .
61
Darwin may/may not be getting hotter,
But how do you conclude the cause is AGW ?
PS. I asked you on the previous thread to prove this linkage,.. and you shied away !.
So please ..”put up or shut up”. !
111
Tilba doesn’t know the difference between global climate change and local climate modification. In reality UHI (land surface modification and waste heat) dwarfs any supposed global warming – of course alarmists will claim it is amplified. Britannica claims cities may be anything from 6 – 11C warmer at times than genuinely rural sites. As well as all that concrete and tarmac amplifying and absorbing all the sun’s energy, you have all the heat dumped from air conditioners and transport etc. UHI is particularly problematic at night as you are effectively sitting in a giant storage heater whilst trying to sleep! It is inevitable that some areas of the city would become increasingly uncomfortable.
But it’s the usual political science/fact-lite climate scam:- Find a problem or a supposed problem where the cause is well known and understood, then blame climate change, and relegate the real reasons to bit part players or ignore them altogether, all supported by fabricated of weak data.
This has all the mandatory alarmist nonsense in, but the real issue is clear.
https://research.csiro.au/darwinlivinglab/wp-content/uploads/sites/278/2020/12/CSIRO_Mapping_LST__Heat_Health_Vulnerability_In_Darwin_Dec2020_FINAL.pdf
Of course dodgy Darwin temperatures have been well covered before on here.
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2019/02/changes-to-darwins-climate-history-are-not-logical/
41
‘AGW is a realistic prediction of the future …’
Objection, natural variability rules and looking back you can see the future.
11
Oops link to the Darwin uni article about immigration and population.
https://www.cdu.edu.au/newsroom/population-stats
20
Tilba?
You said this earlier
And now?
HUH?
71
You can’t be that unthinking … there is more to the Territory than Darwin – we had years in Alice, plus time in Batchelor (near the Rum Jungle Uranium Mine – a part of the NT that all you big-city keyboard warriors have never ever seen). Get out a bit more!
29
My memories of Batchelor were of hundreds of fruit bats in the trees and lining up to empty the caravan toilet cassette on our way back from Litchfield ,that was probably 7 years ago .
Did live in Tennant Creek and Warrego for roughly 18 months but have travelled quite a chunk of the NT , I would list the places we’ve been to and stayed at but there are too many although our favourites are Old Andado , Hell’s Gate , Pine Creek , Keep river and Timber creek as well as the big ticket items Darwin and Kakadu even the rock which we’ve been to three times.
41
Good for you – you and I might well be the only two punters on here who have ever been to Old Andado, as well as eaten at the Dolly Pot in Tennant.
03
I could have sworn the Dolly pot inn was closed last time we went through, best steaks in the country could be had there though.
If you went to Old Andado did you go via Molly’s track or Via Santa Therasa?
20
It’s Santa Teresa – been there a few times too.
We went via Imanpa Community, then Finke then OA. I drove the ATSIC Nissan Patrol, and had with me David Ross – Director of the Central Land Council – we were doing “community consultation” on the Indigenous Land Corporation. I’ll take a punt and say it was about 1997.
Have been to a fair few Aboriginal communities in the NT, and northern South Australia (Ngaanyatjarra Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (NPY) Lands), and also Ngaanyatjarra-Giles in the WA desert. They’re all quite something.
00
I call BS!
41
And has spent enough time in the six states to get a handle on how their climate is going – hot or cold.
I love having a beer with the “I’ve been everywhere” man but I do not use him as a scientific source.
40
I worked with a guy at the mine in Warrego that we reckon was hundreds of years old if you believed his life exploits and where had lived etc , was actually sad really.
00
The ad homs aren’t necessary. Living and working in every state and territory (bar Tasmania) happens if you work for the feds and especially in Indigenous affairs, and other stuff too. I made no comment about the technicalities of the weather anywhere – just provided genuine anecdotal comment that Darwin is getting hotter – and enough for locals to notice. Not everyone works in aircon … including many doctors.
00
Just for you Tilba here is a list of just the highest temps for Darwin by year and doesn’t include how many 35 and over , your memory again fails you .
https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/Australia/NT/Darwin/extreme-annual-darwin-high-temperature.php
90
Are you a trainspotter? Wear an anorak by any chance?
07
No idea what you’re on about but your claim about a decade of not remembering a day of 35 degrees had to be looked at and exposed for what it was .
100
Tilba wrote:
You may not recall them but they did occur and often:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataDGraph&p_stn_num=014015&p_nccObsCode=122&p_month=10&p_startYear=2002
Mostly after the LIG thermometer was upgraded to an electronic instrument in 1998- see p32:
http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/cdio/metadata/pdf/siteinfo/IDCJMD0040.014015.SiteInfo.pdf
The maximum temperature data for Darwin airport does not support
111
“ I am no authority, but having lived there for 10-11 years, I can advise that there is a huge difference between a day of 32° and a day of 34° ”
Apparently that huge difference between 32 and 34 doesn’t extend to 35 and over.
60
I’ve never lived in Darwin but I sure know what a week of 35+ [up to 40] feels like. But it NEVER gets as hot here as it does in Darwin, or I am told.
But seriously, maybe I live in a cooler house now, but we have had no “heatwaves” for years. But this is all anecdotal BS anyway. Who cares if our icecream melts or not.
40
Ever since Neville AC, CNZM, QC, took over as Chairman in 1986 the joint has been infiltrated by green-left pseudo-scientists who have consumed the unscientific CAGW Koolaid.
And, as for your two landscape gardening “friends”, are you sure they’re not just laughing at you as they feed your delusion? On the other hand, if they’re lazy-lefties, like most of them, they’d be getting fatter and older and feeling the heat. Any excuse to knock off at noon and go to the air-conned pub for a bludge.
61
Tiddles is a sad joke. I counted 24 days over 35 in 1994-1996, at Darwin AP.
1994 only had 5 days over 35°C while 2004 had 25, but the annual temperature for both years was 32.1°C.
So is it due to the global average temperature having gone up half 0.2 degrees, or equipment change that picks up short lived bursts of heat better?
Why didn’t CSIRO spot it?
40
Thanks to Rickwill, above. 1998 had 26 days over 35°C once there was a change to electronic thermometers. It has done much to annual means but something else, not climate, has happened there in the last ten years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cdio/014015_36_13_420467355398296257.png
20
Mann, Rudd, Turnbull: Climate Denying Murdoch Media is a Threat to Democracy
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/12/malcolm-turnbull-climate-denying-murdoch-media-is-a-threat-to-democracy/
110
‘Storming’? If there are months of arson, murder, mayhem in Portland, Minnesota, that is ‘largely peaceful’ protest. A weaponless march on Washington to demand justice is ‘storming’ the Capitol. Rudd and Turnbull are very rich arrogant and ignorant people, legends in their own lunchtimes. And a danger to democracy. Lenin’s Useful idiots.
412
“…If there are months of arson, murder, mayhem in Portland, Minnesota, that is ‘largely peaceful’ protest…”
And the media’s dishonesty continues:
Reporters Object to Minnesota Police Chief’s Use of ‘Riot’ in Press Conference
https://www.breitbart.com/law-and-order/2021/04/12/watch-reporters-object-to-minnesota-police-chiefs-use-of-riot-in-press-conference/
160
There was a storming of the US Capitol on 6 January – a bunch of MAGA hot-heads who were egged on by Trump and Giuliani, in order to stop the Congressional certification of President-elect Joe Biden, because Mike Pence was playing it straight – as he had to. That’s how I see it – and many others do too.
Turnbull and Rudd (far from my two favourite ex prime ministers) do have a point. Murdoch is arch-conservative, and his toy Fox News has been Republican state media for a very long time, and the channel has been anti Global Warming for all that time too.
Pulling a long bow, you could therefore say that the Fox climate deniers stirred the possum leading to the insurrection. But it is a pretty odd point to make, even if true. But there again, I don’t think that Turnbull or Rudd are the sharpest knives in the drawer, notwithstanding all their fluffing and puffing.
227
Isnt that what good journalism is supposed to be , ?…truthful, and consistent in its reporting.
Calling out the lies and miss information?
Thank god some media are still brave enough to not “run with the pack”
91
Do you really believe that? That Global Warming is not happening?
28
Global warming over the last 60 years is real, but it has nothing to do with a build up in human emissions and everything to do with the oceanic oscillations which set the tone for natural variability. Comrade, global cooling has begun, rejoice.
122
I feel really sorry for you – I really do. Talk about captured by the fossil fuel pod people … sad.
112
I don’t buy any of that … I think you’re all in crazy denial – you’ve all put so much intellectual and emotional energy into denying Global Warming that you can’t dig yourselves out of that hole.
Arctic ice-melt, Antarctic icefield melt, permafrost melt, glacial shrinking, and sea-level rise … they are all very real and very measurable.
Your denial is pointless – denying reality.
Having said that – I think it’s nuts that we export millions of tonnes of coal every year but we don’t have a number of decent, modern coal-fired power stations on the books.
[Namecalling again. Has the other Tilba gone on holiday for Easter? – Jo]
34
The Denialati stand firm, there is no indication that CO2 causes global warming.
The Arctic sea ice melt is caused by ocean currents, West Antarctica melts because of geothermal activity, permafrost melt is temporary and sea level has stopped rising because of La Nina.
Your denial of these basic facts throws a shadow over your otherwise rational mind. In other words, you have been brainwashed and I fear its terminal.
31
‘ … we don’t have a number of decent, modern coal-fired power stations on the books.’
Perhaps we don’t need them, but its a risky venture being totally dependent on renewables without backup. Should we build nuclear power stations?
23
There’s a good reason for Australia getting so warm that Tilba Tilba thinks it’s Global Warming:
Here’s why:
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/world/what-in-the-world/australia-continental-drift-location-gps.html
It’s true: Australia is the fastest continent in the world…
Think of the heat the friction of such continental velocity would generate!
😀
31
‘I feel really sorry for you – I really do.’
This marks you out as a ‘concern troll’. Talk to me about the 60 year cycle and what is in store.
10
Wobal Glawming is real.
31
France declares ‘calamité agricole’ after record cold
From The Connexion
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/11/france-declares-calamite-agricole-after-record-cold/
140
Bordeaux frosts
1945
1956 this was the coldest year in Bordeaux since 1709 — the frost was so severe that huge swathes of vines died out completely and had to be replanted.
1961
1977 where frost hit on both March 31 and April 9. Bordeaux production was 40% down on 2016, and 33 per cent lower than the long-term average
1991
1997
2003
2017 these were the worst frosts in living memory, and worse than the frosts of 1945, 1977 and 1991.
2021 Must be due to Climate Change!
180
“2021 Must be due to Climate Change!”
Not really. It is due to the weather not to climate change. If the weather had remained cold from say 1961 to 1977 or from 1991 to 2017 that would be climate change
44
Now you’ve got it Ian, it’s all weather.
31
It has been attributed to Global Warming … warmer weather in late winter led to the grapes growing earlier, and then a rare (but not unprecedented) frost in early April killed all that over-mature fruit. Makes sense, if you think about it.
28
“frost in early April killed all that over-mature fruit”. Over mature fruit after a couple of months of growing, my they grow fast in your world.
You keep putting your foot in it, luckily its only small.
30
And what does the Australian government do to help our farmers;
why, it does absolutely Nothing.
31
So how is Climate Change different to Global Warming as predicted in 1988 by James Hanson?
What causes ‘Climate Change’?
And what role, if any, does carbon dioxide play in Climate Change?
Note: any explanations must not mention El Nino and La Nina as no one can predict them with their computer models. In fact they are very handy for explaining why not a single prediction in the last 33 years has come true. You can add the Indian Dipole, the Gulf Stream, the Humboldt current and more recently sundry giant ‘Arctic vortexes’ which froze Texas too.
It’s almost as if the planet was cooling rapidly, pretty much as expected by real scientists.
201
And I am a man made Global Warming denier, because it’s not true. You can prove it’s not true. Less than 4% of CO2 in the air is man made and that’s easily measured because fossil fuel CO2 is different. It has no Carbon 14.
However I am also in the interesting position of being a Climate Change denier, because I do not know what it is and how it is related to CO2? So I am very puzzled that half the articles in the paper are about Climate Change and what Australia and Scott Morrison is going to do about it, how business is affected by it and why Australia is falling behind in dealing with it and other countries are anxious about how our 26 million people are going to save the world?
231
There’s No warming mechanism attached to CO2.
https://joannenova.com.au/2021/04/tuesday-open-thread-51/#comment-2420115
Scientific analysis is hidden by the lame stream media.
KK
31
Climate change is like a clock mechanism, there is the 60 year cycle and many others, all moderated by the oceans. So in this respect, what do you make of this unusual warm blob south west of Tasmania. How is it possible when the waves are three storeys high?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=146.11,-36.68,2147/loc=144.679,-47.788
23
Doom and disaster from the ABC today – seas rising in Port Fairy – we are all going to die!!
High tide with storms caused it to occur, see also the links to coastal erosion in Inverloch and other VIC coastal locations.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-12/port-fairy-big-surf-damage-sea-level-rise/100063670?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=abc_news_web
Any geologist have a definition of rock vs boulder vs large boulder? Haha
110
“Victorian coastal areas were under threat from changes to swell patterns as a consequence of climate change.”
Again you can see why I am puzzled. Experts put everything down to Climate Change. Self evident. So what is it?
I mean it’s not like every coast in the world is not continually assaulted by ocean storms and sometimes by very big storms, but at least we can be happy that University scientists know the cause. Climate Change.
Is there nothing Climate Change cannot explain? With insider knowledge like this, can anyone get a job at a University?
141
Young penguins wash ashore in Victoria after weekend of hazardous coastal conditions
From Warrnambool to Phillip Island, exhausted young penguins are washing up on beaches in Victoria after hazardous coastal conditions at the weekend.
Beach walkers are handing birds in to wildlife centres along the state’s coast, with experts saying the penguin chicks have been overwhelmed by the recent rough water and waves.
Animalia Wildlife director Michelle Thomas said the Frankston shelter started getting calls on Sunday about penguin chicks found alive and dead on beaches in Port Phillip Bay.
She said penguin chicks were not taught to fish by their parents and rough seas made it difficult for them to spot potential prey.
“What we’re seeing is they’re being tossed around in the seas,” she said.
“They are exhausted and potentially starved in the weather event we’re experiencing.”
From the Comments
– Nobody mentioned ” climate change” I might just make a donation, irritating as ” weather event” is
– Too cold, too early in the season for even penguins. Their ” climate change” certainly isn’t global warming.
130
I think the 12 Apostles, not far from Port Fairy, should be evidence of the ultimate damage the sea combined with wind can do. Likewise the 3 sisters in the Blue Mountains (minus the sea). That anyone is surprised by the moving of rocks (boulders) because of big seas is interesting. But once again I resorted to Dorothea Mackellar, that great weather historian with her 2nd and 5th verses of “My Country” written in 1904, with my bolding. ToM
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me!
Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the rainbow gold,
For flood and fire and famine
She pays us back threefold.
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze …
101
How many of those 12 are still standing? I think one has disappeared inside the lat ten years. Also that arch (named London Bridge?)
21
G’day R O 3,
Just so I don’t frighten the horses, the London Bridge, which did fall down about a decade ago, was the sandstone formation about 11 kms east of Port Campbell, Vic.
And yes, one of the “Twelve Apostles” did collapse, but I don’t remember when.
Cheers
Dave B
10
“So how is Climate Change different from Global Warming?”
They are the same thing, its just less embarrassing to say that people in Texas froze to death because of Climate Change than it is to say that they froze to death because of Global Warming.
161
Oops, that was meant to be a reply TdeF @ #4
20
If they are the same thing, why does no one say Global Warming any more? Embarassing? Frozen to death? I am really disappointed that the world was so convinced the world was boiling, Bill Nye set fire to a globe with a blow torch and now they are too embarrassed to say they meant the world was going to freeze? Climate Change. The phrase no one understands but everyone uses.
121
At least NASA tries to explain it..
“The gases cause the air to heat up. This can change the climate of a place. It also can change Earth’s climate.”
So I am left to conclude that when the Climate Changes, it can also get cooler. So gases cause heating which changes climate which causes heating and cooling. Simultaneously.
But they do explain
“What Might Happen to Earth’s Climate.
Scientists think that Earth’s temperature will keep going up for the next 100 years. This would cause more snow and ice to melt. Oceans would rise higher. Some places would get hotter. Other places might have colder winters with more snow. Some places might get more rain. Other places might get less rain. Some places might have stronger hurricanes.
So things might vary from place to place. Wow. Is there nothing science cannot tell us? It sure beats casting auspices like the ancient Romans.
161
I did a quick excursion into the distant future in my time machine, built it myself, and looked up ‘climate change’ in a history cube.
“Global Warming or Climate Change – A late 20th, early 21st century political narrative, based on erroneous science, designed by a political entity then known as the United Nations for the purpose of dismantling nation state political structures which arose after the end of of the First World War in 1918. This initiated the historical period now known as the Second Dark Age.”
191
And take careful note of the subtle attempt to blame the cooling on ‘gases’ and rainstorms instead of droughts.
“Other places might have colder winters with more snow. Some places might get more rain. ”
The process of blaming all weather on Carbon Dioxide has started.
10
“…why does no one say Global Warming any more?”
Because Global Warming is a somewhat honest description of the phenomenon they are describing (although Anthropomorphic Global Warming is more honest and a completely honest description is Catastrophic Anthropomorphic Global Warming) but having a name that honestly describes the phenomenon is not important, what is important is to have a name that includes all possible outcomes so that they can never be proven wrong, thus they use Climate Change.
101
Sure, but Catastrophic Anthropomorphic Global Warming is not one statement but three
1. Catastrophic. How? Where in 33 years is this catastrophe? The French and Texans have declared a cold catastrophe in Spring, not winter.
2. Anthropomorphic. A weird word stolen from zoology to indicate that someone the shape of a man did this terrible thing. As 96% of CO2 in the air is not fossil fuel CO2, how have we increased CO2 levels. Who proved that CO2 levels are not a perfectly natural of slightly warming ocean surfaces?
3. Global Warming, so warming all over the globe. Measured from pole to pole, summer to winter, night and day. A monstrous averaging process with no scientific basis. Even then it is not true. By this measure there has been no warming whatsoever in the last six years. It was announced that 2020 was the second warmest year since 2016. That means no increase in six years.
And
4. Has the word ‘rapid’ gone missing already?
5. And the phrases ‘tipping point’ and ‘runaway’. All missing. The point of no return has been moved ten years, every ten years.
Now all we have is the undefined ‘Climate Change’ which Scott Morrisson must fix. Or risk international condemnation. Apparently.
121
True believers in Climate Change insist it is the greatest problem facing the world. Would someone please explain? What is Climate Change? And isn’t that possible anyway in any given area?
Consider both Napoleon in 1812 and Hitler in 1942 faced the coldest winters in a century, but wasn’t that everyone’s excuse for failure in a winter campaign in Russia? The British in 1855 in Crimea did the same and knitted Balaclavas were sent to the freezing soldiers in Balaclava who were losing fingers and ears, but they won that war, taught the Russians a lesson and nothing more was said.
But this time, Scott Morrison must stop Climate Change. Even according to the Australian. And stop coal mining to save the planet.
81
No mention of the French contribution. Britain wouldn’t have won alone.
00
I actually think the word you’re reaching for is “Anthropogenic” – environmental change caused by human activity. I trust that helps.
37
Yes, I confused it with a word from an old biology class. That makes slightly more sense. Anthropho as relating to people but genic? Perhaps ‘made by’. I still think it’s an deliberately exotic way of pretending there is real science behind the idea that the higher carbon dioxide levels are caused by fossil fuel.
51
“So how is Climate Change different from Global Warming?”
“Global warming” is what academics with no practical life experience used to tag on the end of the description of their grant applications before the world stopped warming.
i.e. “The emotional impact of not being green enough to fit in at campus parties; and global warming”
“Climate change” is what academics with no practical life experience used to tag on the end of the description of their grant applications after the world stopped warming.
i.e. “The emotional impact of not being woke enough to fit in at mutually inclusive consensual campus group think sessions; and climate change”
See, completely different.
20
From thread below – please feel free to comment and pick a postcode for the Northern Beaches
David
my view that the climate change movement will hit a wall when people are directly affected. – but blackouts are real, for example. We are finally approaching that point and I am optimistic.
We are already at Peak Stupidity.
Northern Beaches Councils is proposing – Electric vehicle charging infrastructure plan Inviting feedback
Check out the plan and comment below
Supporting electric vehicle technology
The draft Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Plan has been developed to guide the future management of publicly operated electric vehicle (EV) charging stations in the Northern Beaches.
The draft plan creates the framework for establishing a future network of EV charging stations and outlines conditions for the installation, management, maintenance and removal of EV charging infrastructure on identified Council sites.
Read the draft plan and have your say by:
completing the submission form below
emailing us at transport@northernbeaches.nsw.gov.au
writing to us marked ‘EV charging infrastructure plan’ Northern Beaches Council,
PO Box 82 Manly, NSW 1655.
You may also like to speak directly with the project team at one of our upcoming drop-in sessions:
Dee Why Civic Centre – Banksia Room: Wednesday 21 April (5.30-6.30 pm).
Online: Thursday 6 May (5.30-6.30pm).
Registrations are required for both sessions.
So Ratepayers will subsidise Rich People who can afford Electric Cars – Why not Electric Car Manufacturers fund the Charging Infrastructure?
80
I’ll mention this here rather than reply in the older Thread because not many would go back to that older Thread and see that comment, or even notice any reply, so it will be observed better here in this newer Thread.
There was a mention in that earlier Thread here that some of those older wind plants are still going “strong’ as the comment mentioned, and that they could just keep powering on in a manner that trusted old cars do.
While it might be possible to just keep them going, the delivered power is so small as to be inconsequential, and contrary to current thinking they just cannot be replaced.
I’ll use the example of not just one tower in an isolated area, and there are some of those, but of a whole wind plant itself.
The Challicum Hills Plant in Victoria is the perfect example for this, as it was one of the earliest wind Plants to be constructed, and has now been operational for 18 years.
It has 35 individual wind towers, each one with a 1.5MW turbine. The towers were specifically designed for this turbine, the weight of the whole nacelle on top of the tower, the blade length, the ground clearance of the blades where they rotate closest to the ground, etc.
No one is ever going to replace the turbine when it time expires with another 1.5MW turbine, as turbines are now in the range of 3.5MW to 4.5MW. These new turbines are so much heavier than those earlier ones, so the tower height to the hub is designed, again, specifically for those new turbines, towers now almost double the height to the hub. The blades driving those new turbines are longer than the original Challicum Hills towers are from base to hub, so the blades would now be impacting the ground while rotating, so the thought of replacing Challicum hills turbines with new ones is totally out of the question. When Challicum Hills time expires, it will all have to be totally dismantled, and if a replacement Plant is considered, then it will be a completely new plant, hence not a replacement, but a whole new construction.
Okay then, Challicum Hills has a Nameplate of 52.5MW. Over its 18 years of operation, there would be so very few times it has ever reached that Nameplate, and here that would be for just the occasional five minute time period, so absolutely minisicule. At the start 18 years ago, it might have averaged a Capacity Factor (CF) of around 30%, but now, after 18 years it is barely making 20% at best. Sunday just passed was the best day for wind generation across the whole wind power Fleet for a long time. In the two and a half years I have been keeping wind generation data, there have only been six other occasions when wind power delivery has been higher than that day. Here, note the irony that on its best days in years, wind CF was just a tick over 50% CF for the day, just six times in 850 days. Barely more than HALF its Nameplate on one of its best days ever.
On that day, Challicum Hills managed to reach 40MW on a few five minute time measurements so that’s the best it could manage, around 80%, and that’s its maximum. In recent years Challicum Hills is averaging around 20% of its Nameplate across the year, as it has deteriorated across the years.
Now for the comparison.
Across those EIGHTEEN YEARS of operation, Challicum Hills wind plant has delivered the same total power delivered by the Bayswater coal fired power plant at its normal operation in ….. FORTY DAYS.
So, eighteen years from a wind plant to replace 40 days of coal fired power.
I might put down wind plants so often, but they just do not deliver electrical power on the scale required.
Tony.
271
One thing I wondered about was when building new wind turbines or upgrading old ones, if instead of lengthening the blades, would it be possible to have a turbine with more than three blades. In researching this thought I found these interesting articles:
Why Do Wind Turbines Have Three Blades?
By JEREMY SHERE
Posted April 20, 2010
https://indianapublicmedia.org/amomentofscience/wind-turbines-have-three-blades.php
The Scientific Reason Why Wind Turbines Have 3 Blades
Saoirse Kerrigan
By Saoirse Kerrigan
Mar 28, 2018
https://interestingengineering.com/the-scientific-reason-why-wind-turbines-have-3-blades
50
The C 130 began life with a three bladed prop also. The blade tips reached Mach 1, noisy and inefficient.
https://c2.staticflickr.com/2/1054/1163487610_e12941b875_b.jpg
They are now with the J model. Notice the difference.
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ad35a89e78103868fed13507f0db351b
Everything is “work in progress”.
20
Passing time, sipping a red, I wondered about submarine propellors. It’s understandable but when our Collins Class are pictured in dry dock, they never have a prop fitted. At least not since I’ve thought about it.
More money has been spent researching aircraft propellors than wind turbines and, I’d bet, even more still on those for subs, cavitation being the enemy of silent running.
So what sort of props do subs use? Not unlike the multi-bladed prop on the J model Herc and the BIG thing they have in common is an uneven number of blades, seven being the common choice. Something to do with harmonics. Will windmills go to 5 bladed props to reduce harmonics?
https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/photo/low-angle-view-of-submarine-propeller-against-sky-royalty-free-image/675606913
10
No body cares if windmills are noisy , it’s offset by the fact they are green and therefore have to be good.
20
Hi Tony
I forced myself to sit through 4 Corners, last night to hear the virtues of wind, solar and batteries sung loud over the government’s foolish desire to build new gas fired generation. I just didn’t understand why nobody stands up and states the obvious, which is if you want 1GW of electricity you can build 1 x 1GW coal plant now. OR you can build 5 x 1 GW wind plants today PLUS 5 more in 20 years time PLUS storage technology of some kind.
I get that current wind turbines are cheaper to build and install than coal/gas plants per MWH of name plate capacity perhaps by some optimistic measures I’ve seen touted by a factor of 50%, but still if I need to build 8 times as much capacity to match a coal plant, surely that cost difference is negated?
I get to 5 times by considering comparative capacity factors, losses in converting current to storage and back again, and losses in transmission from widely distributed wind farms.
When will someone do the math and speak truth to power?
120
Deriving energy from weather dependent sources will consume the entire output of humanity before those sources can support the needs of humanity.
There are only two current sources of renewable energy, hydropower and managed forests and crops. The latter will occupy a lot of land but way less than weather dependent generators for the same output.
I do have some concern that a very large number of people are deluding themselves that weather dependent sources are a viable alternative to coal. It means there is a lot of wasted endeavour going into development of these sources instead of developing less resource intensive technologies. The big end of town are right into it because its ability to gobble resources is unparalleled.
71
Big end of town specializes in rent seeking behaviour, ie looking for super normal profits from either monopoly powers or government subsidies, and we all know wind depends on government subsidies! Look at Germany, where wind farms are being retired because the government is finally winding back on subsidising them..
50
Further development of this analysis would be to consider the hardware involved in the wind generators compared with the coal generator as well as footprint of the wind plant and Bayswater with the Mount Arthur Mine:
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@24.9703388,114.2679335,7.25z
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@24.9703388,114.2679335,7.25z
The big miners will control the entire world resources as long as humanity follows down the path of weather dependent generators. As BHP keeps reminding us, each wind turbine requires 4t of copper. They also require much more steel, concrete and fibreglass.
40
Oops- should have checked links:
https://goo.gl/maps/1TjSz6BdvXeFXH8U8
https://goo.gl/maps/6UynBzTUtJHue7SY6
10
My last car reached 12 years old but was costing me more in maintenance then the lease costs of a new car!
10
Just sounds like a lemon, my daily driver is 11 years old has 500k kms and maint is nothing like a car lease p.a.
Individual anectodotes dont mean much, mine included.
40
1,5 MW of turbine power. Hmm. In windy weather it could serve one Biden’s charging post where you could get 100 kWh in 6 minutes using 1 MW power. Diesel generator backup is of course needed.
10
Isn’t mathematics such a truly ‘scary’ thing?
I mean, you look at that above statement and think ….. that is just wrong. It just cannot be correct.
There are currently 67 wind plants across that vast AEMO coverage area. The total Nameplate is 8132MW, and there are (around) 4000 + individual wind towers/turbines, ranging in power output from 1.4MW to 4.5MW, so other than going to each site individually and adding up the turbines, it’s a reasonable calculation to say that figure of around 4000 of them.
It’s only in the last year (start January to end December) 2020 and the rolling 12 Months (April to April) that all of that wind generation has surpassed the yearly output of Bayswater.
67 Wind Plants versus the ONE Bayswater coal fired power plant.
And only now is wind delivering a little more power.
Last year, all of 2020, wind delivered 19,600GWH of power.
Last year, all of coal fired power delivered 134,000GWH of power.
So to equal current coal fired power we need to multiply current wind Nameplate by 6.84.
See how scary maths now becomes? It tells you things you don’t want to hear.
Now try and even imagine the cost.
Now try taking it further and thinking no coal fired power by 2030. Current large turbines are 4.5MW, so 8132MW (existing Nameplate) multiplied by 6.84 is 55,622 of those 4.5MW tower/turbines.
The largest wind plant in Oz is Coopers Gap in Queensland with 123 turbines, so make ’em large eh! So 55,622 divided by 120 turbines is 463 wind new construct wind plants. So, by 2030, now just 9 years away, that’s 51 new wind plants a year, so ‘almost’ the current existing FLEET of wind plants to be newly constructed each year. And that’s at the size of the current largest in Australia. 51 of them each and every year.
Coopers Gap cost $850 Million so now each year that’s $43 Billion a year, each year for the next nine years.
NOW can you see why it’s not going to happen.
Tony.
101
Whats real scary is the area that those proposed wind towers will occupy. If I drive in any direction from home I pass wind power generation facilities (WPGF’s) So, you can probably guess where I live. A couple of years ago I decided to work out the area per turbine based on reported stats, Google Earth etc for the following WPGF’s- Mt Mercer, Waubra, Macarthur, Challicum Hills (Ararat), Bald Hills (Tarwin Lower), Murra Warra (Horsham), Moorabool Wind Farm Proposed. The average area is 39.94 ha, so let’s say 40 ha. Range is (25-61). So, on average those 55,622 4.5MW tower/turbines that you stated will occupy 22,215 km2. Distance between Melbourne and Brisbane is 1375 km. So, imagine a band of wind turbines between Melbourne and Brisbane about 16 km wide. 22,215 km2 compared to size of Australia doesn’t sound much does it? About 150 km x 150km. Easy peasy – put them all out in Woop Woop where they don’t affect anyone. Trouble is they need wind prone areas. These are usually the best, highest generally the most scenic sites. So, in effect anywhere along the Great Dividing Range which means anywhere in our most scenic vistas you will see ugly monstrosities spinning.
10
Do wind turbines deteriorate over the years? Why would they?
10
A debate on the British Mensa forum says: What if anthropomorphic global warming theories turn out to be wrong? My answer is that the anthropomorphic global warming theory was proved wrong in 2011.
Venus was the key to proving that carbon dioxide warming was false. Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller have proved that the main greenhouse gas on the Earth is Nitrogen by molar mass. The formula for the Greenhouse Effect is based on Atmospheric mass, gravity and air pressure, first suggested by James Clerk Maxwell in 1871, and proved correct in 2011 for all known Planetary Atmospheres by Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller, Gravity pulling molecules downward producing the heat gradient. It proves it with a simple formula that could be taught in a Physics O’Level course. Proving that Man-made carbon dioxide warming is the biggest and most expensive idiotic conspiracy by morons and fools that the world has ever seen.
So as someone with an IQ of 164, my conclusion is that:
(1) Galileo proved Copernicus correct by showing that Venus had phases, proving that Ptolemy and the Consensus were wrong.
(2) Zeller proved James Clerk Maxwell correct by showing that gravity pulling molecules downward produces the heat seen on Venus, proving Arrhenius and the Consensus were wrong.
There is nothing about this in the mainstream media in Britain, but Christopher Calder wrote an article called “The Zeller-Nikolov climate discovery may turn the world upside down”. see below
https://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Zeller-Nikolov-climate-by-Christopher-Calder-Al-Gore_Al-Gore_Biofuels_Climate-Change-181228-572.html
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Interesting, but again there are two parts.
1. The increase in CO2 is man made. That is easy to prove wrong using carbon 14. You can measure it. They are different.
2. the increase produces warming, which is your subject.
However without proposition #1, what does it matter? We do not control CO2 levels and the very idea that we did is based on the idea that CO2 is the only gas not in constant equilibrium with the vast ocean in which they dissolve under extreme pressure, especially CO2.
We know all this because all life on earth evolved from the sea and breathes oxygen and breathes out carbon dioxide. And if it wasn’t for photosynthesis, there would be no oxygen left. As it is, there is almost no carbon dioxide left and that would be a disaster.
92
Earth’s surface temperature is a function of water vapour in the atmosphere. The surface pressure plays a role to the extent that most ice forms high in the atmosphere. In tropical oceans where the energy input is controlled, the ice is above 7000m.
Unless the atmosphere of other planets form reflective cloud then they do not have the same surface temperature control process as Earth.
The N&K work is nothing more than curve fitting. It has been a while but I think they have 4 tunable parameters and are looking at 5 planets; they jagged one that was close to one of the others.
Their work is no better than the climate models. They have enough tunable parameters to hindcast the ups and down of historical records. So many parameters that they are now tuned automatically to give the least error. However they fail on close scrutiny. For example it is well known that the tropical oceans regulate warm pools to 30C. Warm pools drift into and out of the Nino34 region so its temperature has proven to be trendless at 27C over the past 40 years. Hence it is a good way to validate or condemn climate models – they all fail this test without exception:
https://i1.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Slide4-1618202388.5266.png?fit=960%2C720&ssl=1
These are from European climate prognosticators but the models from other prognosticators all show the same nonsense of cooling the past to ridiculous degree to sustain a warming trend where there is none.
41
I got downvoted on WUWT by making disparaging comments about these “theories” of planetary temperature, so I’ll go easy here tonight. The Z&N paper I just re-read tonight to make sure I had read it correctly the first time around, and its worse than I thought. It is full of bizarre inconsistencies. Let me mention #1. They calculate the density of atmosphere, or partial density of greenhouse gas concentration by using the ideal gas law. What they actually say is this…
So they strive for physical consistency, do they? But on venus the ideal gas law doesn’t apply at all because a very thick portion of the atmosphere near surface is not a gas, but rather a supercritical fluid. The ideal gas law doesn’t apply to the lower 25km of the atmosphere. Ironically, even though they are applying a completely inappropriate equation of state, their density comes out pretty close to a correct value because the compressibility factor for the surface conditions on venus just happens to accidentally equal one. In other words the ideal gas law and the real gas law just happen to coincide on the surface of Venus. They get a correct answer just by coincidence! The paper is full of weird stuff like that — a bond albedo for venus that results from the dense cloud, but is used to calculate a reference surface temperature for zero atmosphere. This is science so bad that, using the phrase of Pauli, I suspect it isn’t even wrong.
61
I hope someone on mensa pointed out what “morphic” means.
11
Elite law journal under fire over ‘racism’
A bitter row has engulfed some of Australia’s most senior criminologists and lawyers, with accusations of racism thrown at an academic who published a study pointing to high levels of violent crime by Sudanese-born youths in Victoria.
The attacks have been all the more incendiary because the author of the paper, Swinburne University researcher Stephane Shepherd, is an African-Australian.
Dr Shepherd is a Fulbright scholar, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, a member of the Eastern Regional Advisory Committee of the Victorian Multicultural Commission and author of dozens of academic papers on race and crime.
Last September he and co-author Benjamin Spivak published a peer-reviewed work in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology that in recent days has become the subject of acute controversy.
The authors argued that higher rates of African-Australian youth imprisonment were most likely because of an increase in violent activity by some members of that group rather than because of police profiling.
The study found there was a significantly higher rate of “crimes against the person” — such as robbery and assault — by South Sudanese-born youth compared with Australia-born youth.
If police were unfairly targeting young African-Australians, lesser public order and drug offences would also have been expected to climb, but rates for these less serious crimes have remained stable and relatively low for South Sudanese-born youth.
The authors explicitly noted that “the overwhelming majority of Sudanese-Victorians are law-abiding” and their findings “should prompt concerted efforts to better address specific community needs”.
The study has, however, been condemned as “racist in terms of its methodological approach” by some academics and activists.
101
I have reviewed the predictive capability of climate models for the Nino34 region. This region is important for global weather and a good region for forecasting conditions in eastern Australia as the recent rains confirm yet again. Unlike summer of 2019/20 with drought and fire that followed the 2015/16 El Nino, summer of 2020/21 has brought the flooding rain during the present La Nina phase.
With that in mind you would expect the climate prognosticators would closely scrutinise their model output for this very important region. What I have found demonstrates that it is challenging to create a warming trend where there cannot be one. The linked chart compares the prediction and hindcast from two European models against the NOAA/NCEP optimally interpolated measurement that combines moored buoy data for reference and satellite data for coverage:
https://i1.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Slide4-1618202388.5266.png?fit=960%2C720&ssl=1
All modellers are cooling the past to ridiculous levels to get something close to actual at time of the run. The cooling trend in the NCEP data is very slight and the result of the present La Nino conditions. The actually temperature will level out the zero trend at 27C once the region returns to neutral phase.
51
Mark Latham: Hunter Valley would suffer without coal industry
A Liberal-Labor-Greens-union climate coalition wants to bring down NSW coal, despite the horrific consequences for Hunter Valley businesses and workers, writes Mark Latham.
When Newcastle was founded in 1801, known initially as the Coal Harbour Penal Settlement, convicts found pieces of coal on the beaches.
This beautiful black resource became the first export commodity of the fledgling NSW colony and it has underpinned the Hunter Valley’s income and prosperity ever since.
Today coal mining represents 58 per cent of the economic output of the Singleton and Muswellbrook local government areas – the heart of the Hunter.
Think about that carefully. On average in every street, passing through every district, for three out of five homes, their contribution to GDP is through coal.
Forty per cent of all jobs in Singleton are in coal mining. Thirty per cent in Muswellbrook.
While most of this thermal coal is exported through the Port of Newcastle, the industry also brings new wealth and opportunities into the region.
Each year, mining is responsible for two-thirds of the $5.8 billion worth of imports coming from the rest of Australia into Muswellbrook and Singleton. Seventy per cent of the jobs created by the region’s imports support the mining sector.
Coal is a mighty job generator. Without it the Hunter would be one big Centrelink office, an economic wasteland.
The Americans have a name for this kind of deindustrialisation: rustbucket regions, where the parents are unemployed and the kids are on drugs.
So far, Australia has been able to avoid this phenomenon. But the Hunter, more than any other area, is at risk.
It has a high concentration of the coal jobs that climate change activists like Malcolm Turnbull, Matt Kean, Jodi McKay, Anthony Albanese and Adam Bandt want to destroy with their Net Zero Carbon 2050 plans.
120
Nothing Green Ever Works: automotive comparison edition
How does a goofy-looking Australian-built electric ute stack up against a petrol-powered 1927-31 Model A Ford? Let’s check their relative specifications and abilities.
At least they haven’t wasted any development money on styling
Here’s the deal with the ACE Yewt:
An Australian-built electric ute is on schedule to roll out of an Adelaide factory early next year with an affordable price tag of just under $26,000 for the basic model.
The ACE Yewt will weigh around 900 kilograms, be able to carry up to 500 kilograms, have a maximum speed of 100 kilometres an hour and have a range of 150 to 200km under partial load.
The ACE Electric Vehicle group is a Queensland startup formed by Greg McGarvie and Chinese entrepreneur Will Qiang to grab a slice of the world’s exploding demand for electric cars.
“Exploding” is an apt way of putting it. Still, being modern and all, the Yewt should have no problem putting away a 90-year-old fossil-fuelled Ford. Let the comparison begin:
PRICE
Yewt: $26,000 (or $40,000, depending on your news source)
Model A Ford: Back in the day, the 1927 base model retailed for the equivalent of $14,000 in current Australian dollars
MAXIMUM SPEED
Yewt: 100 km/h
Model A Ford: 105 km/h
RANGE
Yewt: 150 to 200 kilometres
Model A Ford: 230 kilometres from its 11 US gallon petrol tank
REFUELLING TIME
Yewt: Its 23.2kWh battery pack can be charged in “under 8 hours at home”
Model A Ford: About one minute
PASSENGERS
Yewt: One
Model A Ford: Up to four, depending on model variant
PAYLOAD
Yewt: 500 kilograms – for maybe half an hour
Model A Ford: the pickup variant was rated for just 500 pounds, or 226 kilograms
Here’s our winner, by a clear 5-1 margin:
181
Great work. But the Ford only came in one colour. While you are waiting the 8 hours for your YEWT to charge, you can admire the colour.
Perhaps it would be wise to buy a Model A ford as a backup?
80
In eight hours you could change the colour.
50
The ‘Yewt’ probably only comes in green!
50
It has no ANCAP rating yet so a long way to go before market. The testing will require destroying 5 vehicles providing there are no serious issues.
The $40k figure is probably still low. The promotor is blaming lack of government support (meaning subsidies) for the high price. EVs require “policy certainty” like wind generators to be viable.
Broad use and acceptance of EVs in Australia is a loooooong way off. Unless the ALP end up in power at the Federal level. They are promising “policy certainty” on EVs.
It is nice to see an EV manufacturer aiming for a lightweight vehicle though. Interestingly the Ford Model A tipped the scales at just 562kg.
When I studied engineering, we got to play with the gearbox of a Ford Model-T. That was in the 1960s and it was still regarded as a masterpiece of engineering 50 year after its development.
61
That gearbox might have been an ‘epicyclic’ type with an internal ring gear and rings of gears inside it. Depending on which ring was locked, you changed the ratio. I agree – it was a very clever idea and saved space.
40
Those old cars also had amazing ground clearance because of the era they were sold in (often no roads – just very bumpy tracks) and could take quite a pounding without giving up. Mind you, I wouldn’t want to have a prang in one.
My first car in 1980 was a (then 20 years old) EK Holden. Honestly, with 1/2″ and 9/16″ ring spanners and a couple of screwdrivers you could fix 90% of anything that went wrong. It’s 2.8 litre 6 (Grey motor) produced about 75 Kw and leaked oil from the front main bearing. If it stopped leaking, you knew the sump was low.
20
Exploding demand??
10
Anyone have any further thoughts about the co2 study I linked to last week? It seems to have been very difficult for the Norwegian scientists to find much so called CAGW from the extra co2 in the atmosphere? Here’s last weeks comment and the link.
A recent Norwegian study has tried to measure any warming from co2 and seems to be very thorough and with a number of checks and balances. BTW they conclude that co2 warming may be 0.5% and I think that would be about 0.07c of warming if the global average temp ( for example) was about 14.5 c. Here’s the link and abstract and their conclusions. Who knows?
https://www.scirp.org/pdf/acs_2020041718295959.pdf
31
Earth’s surface temperature is thermostatically controlled. Ocean warm pools regulate around 30C and sea ice forms at -2C. Atmospheric CO2 CANNOT alter these temperature control processes. Resulting average surface temperature is close to 14C or 57F or 287K given the good distribution of water over the globe.
The warm pool temperature limit is a function of buoyancy of water vapour in air, radiating properties of water vapour and reflective power of ice above 273K in the atmosphere in the form of cumulus cloud immediately following cloudburst and then persistence cirrus cloud as the water vapour above 273K forms ice before the next cloudburst. It is the persistency of the cloud that limits surface insolation to achieve an energy balance at 30C.
Anyone with access to a web browser can observe the regulation of warm pools any time of any day of any year:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-277.78,-7.34,376/loc=53.755,-3.252
Only two large warm pools in the Indian Ocean today. Both Atlantic and Pacific do not have much surface at 30C. Cyclone Soroja took some of the heat out of the ocean to the northwest of Australia. All that water transferred to WA removed a lot of latent heat from the oceans.
There are warm pools around PNG and the north of Australia as well as near Africa but you need to zoom in to find them. ALL regulating around 30C; thousands of kilometres apart and in three separate oceans. And we are told that the global surface temperature is the result of some delicate energy balance easily upset by the addition of a minuscule amount of CO2 – pull the other one, it plays jingle bells.
52
I didn’t follow it up because from the basic physics there isn’t any mechanism by which atmospheric CO2 adds to the eventual “atmospheric temperature” and the whole idea must be viewed as seen for what it is: politically Inspired Melodrama, P.I.M.
There’s also the other approach of quantitative analysis which has two routes to travel.
Firstly, IF we allow that some magic global warming mechanism is real, and it isn’t, then human origin CO2 is such a small part of the “greenhouse gases” that its effect would be microscopic and effectively immeasurable.
Secondly, the atmosphere is in direct contact with the oceans which contain 98% of the effectively “free” CO2 available to nature.
Atmospheric CO2 represents the other 2%.
To assume that the oceans do not have a massive influence on atmospheric CO2 levels is being a bit deceptive when the claim is made that human origin CO2 “hangs about and builds up” in the atmosphere.
Whichever way you look at it, basic gas physics or quantitative analysis, it just isn’t true that human origin CO2 is causing global warming.
That’s why when I noted that the study has allocated a possible number to the effect, I gave up on the “study”.
KK
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Hi Neville.
Had to look at the “experiment” and had to stop when I came across the proverbial “backscatter” from CO2 “in all directions”.
Basic facts;
CO2 at ground level may absorb IR energy emitted by the ground, but this process is all over and done with by about 30 metres above ground level.
Although water has two critical temperatures at which energy and phase changes occur, the next one for CO2 is about 11,000 metres altitude where it has a release of energy; 243°K, according to our former resident atmospheric expert.
Between 30 and 11,000 metres CO2 behaves as a gas under the PV= n.R.t gas law. No tricky bits with energy being sent back to warm the earth.
Will J would concur that low grade energy emitted by CO2 at altitude does not move to a point of greater potential.
Energy will always move down the energy gradient; in this case away from the Earth and towards the lower temperature of near space.
I’m not sure that the experiment does much to help explore the problem, but it’s a start.
KK
31
There is no man made global warming.
It is a scientific and quantitative nonsense with either analysis confirming that fact.
How has this concept been able to survive in the public/scientific domain for so long.
I guess the answer relates to capitulation in the face of so much free money for just “going along it”.
And we see ourselves as being a race of Superbeings.
KK
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Going along with it.
21
And we see ourselves as being a race of
Superbeingssuperbugs.Sorry, couldn’t help it.
30
This thread is near dead, so I don’t know if anyone will read this note, but I first learned of this experiment on WUWT some time ago, and got the paper, and read it then. I have now just read it again to refresh my memory about its issues. The description of the whole set-up is not complete enough to figure out what is going on. Among the problems are:
1)The EDTA film is of unknown thickness. We do not know its thermal conductivity nor do we know its optical properties except that it is about 90% transmissive.
2)There are holes in the chambers to stay at constant P, but what do we know about how these will transfer heat via infiltration?
3)To prevent natural convection from having an effect we have small fans running in both chambers to maintain constant T by having forced convection overwhelm natural. But we don’t know the dissipation of the fans, nor typical air flow. This may not matter much if we can trust the few temperature measurements as being representative.
4) we don’t know anything about the view of the IR sensors. What solid angle do they see?
5) They do not consider the emitted power from the sides of their box. The emissivity of the aluminum foil is very small, but the total area of the sides is much larger than the input end.
Look at Figure 7. The abcissa is labeled as IR radiation in watts per squared meter, but doesn’t tell us whether we are measuring intensity or irradiance. From the way they calculate input radiation at the base of the apparatus one would guess irradiance.
All of this considered I am simply not yet able to produce a coherent picture of what they measured and until I can do that I can’t figure what it actually means.
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Hi Kevin,
I only looked at the first page but the setup you describe sounds a bit rough so any “results” wouldn’t be very useful.
They may have been inspired by that laughable experiment on CO2 varying atmospheres done on that big time U.S. T.V.show.
21
Oh, gosh. That awful experiment…
I am going to have a third look at this paper, and may post something to WUWT in the near future. Thanks for the suggestion.
11
One more quick note: Even with 100% CO2 in the chamber we are looking at radiation backward from a layer of 2 ft. thickness at a pressure of 14.7 psi (my tables are English units) and the Eckert and Drake tables indicate an equivalent emissivity in this case of about 14%. So one would not expect a lot of backscattered IR anyway. If the Norskies were expecting something equaivalent to stefan-boltzmann at emissivity of 1.0 I understand their surprise.
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Neville – a dodgy paper in a dodgy journal. Maybe raise it again next week to see if the answer is any different.
10
new great idea for you beach-goers, outdoor types:
Japan Decides To Dump One Million Tons Of Radioactive Fukushima Water Into The Pacific; IAEA Approves (Rah, rah rah:
Industry Standard, all bow–bow lower, lower, lower!
https://mail.yahoo.com/d/compose/9083955002
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The left coast of the US will measure an increase in background radiation before we will.
20
384. My hand is above only the steadfast ones. Weakness and light-mindedness foster treachery. Treason is judged not by its causes but by its effects. Each one is free, but is judged by his deeds. Initiation is not found through heartless action. Happiness is gained through labor. –Leaves of Morya’s Garden 1924
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
86. A sovereign (Akbar) asked a sage “How do you tell a nest of treason from a stronghold of loyalty?” The wise man pointed to a crowd of gaily dressed horsemen and said “There is a nest of treason.” Then he indicated a solitary wayfarer and said “There is a stronghold of devotion, for solitude can betray nothing.” And from that day on the sovereign surrounded himself with fidelity. -M: Community 1926
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75. Love, achievement, labor, creation—these summits of ascent preserve the aspiring strivings in all permutations. What a bounty of additional concepts they encompass! What is love without self-sacrifice or achievement without valor, labor without patience, and creativeness without self-perfectment! And over this entire legion of benignant values the heart rules. Without it the most patient people, the most valiant, the most striving will remain cold coffins! Burdened by knowledge but unwinged will be those who are heartless! It is sad not to come at the time of the call! It is grievous not to follow Hierarchy completely! Often people try to hide from themselves the rejection of Hierarchy. Canst thou, traveler, open-heartedly be ready to follow Hierarchy? -Morya: Heart 1932
…………………………………………………………………………………………….
493. Naturalness and directness constitute the essence of fiery energy. -M: Fiery World 1933
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11
That’s the problem with nuclear reactors – they don’t have a hiccup that often, but when they do, they tend to be doozies. And the design of Fukushima was almost unbelievably stupid (putting the pumps below sea level).
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Why didn’t you tell them when they were planning it.
It’s too late now.
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Do yourself a favor TT, and just stop posting until you get a better source of facts.
It is normal for pumps to be submerged, and it was not the pumps that failed, it was the emergency generators used to supply power when the main plant went down…..they were swamped by the wave after their protection walls were damaged .
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Yes – correct – I meant the generators required for the pumps. They were too vulnerable to being swamped.
01
Re Prince Philip’s “clangers”
A thought of just now – what anyone not there at the time does not have the inside on –
Many years ago in “The Virginian” IIRC there is a line “When you call me that, smile”. (Which line I’ve remembered and used through my career).
And I’ll bet Prince Philip had a grin on when he said most things like that.
And those missing this include all those commenting that were not there – and, if the scene was videoed, did not take a close look.
An example from our venacular-
Someone here referred to as “You old bstaard” with a big grin will take it as a complement.
Same term without the grin is definitely not
(Originally on Thursday Open)
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G’day a i,
And sometimes tone of voice is sufficient.
But the speaker does have to be careful.
Cheers
60
Climate change is the wheel and hamsters are the political scientists.
If things were basic:
one could use their wardrobe as an indicator of temperature change over the last 10 years. Which way would the scale tip? Clothes bought for the warm weather or ones bought for the cold weather?
Weight is not relevant.
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🙂 🙂
41
It is either getting cooler or I am becoming thin blooded at the old age. 🙂
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Big pharma hand out blood thinners to the aged and as a result they feel the cold more.
32
If someone has to tell you they are the smartest person in the room, usually they aren’t.
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It’s only happened a couple of times in my fairly long meeting-filled life – and always the person was dumb as a rock. So I think your hypothesis holds.
26
Care to count how many posts you’ve made here, CLEARLY telling us we are dumb?
70
That’s the problem between us and them , we just think they are wrong but they on the other hand have this pent up hatred of all who dare to question their belief.
80
I actually think it’s the complete reverse of that.
And I see that some 13,000 scientists world-wide have just signed a new letter outlining the urgency – that climate change is occurring rapidly, and that atmospheric carbon needs to be reduced.
And Scientific American (that leftie, commie rag) has announced that it will from now on use the term “climate emergency” rather than climate change.
Story: Climate Emergency
15
Those 1300 scientists are unaware of real climate change because they are from different disciplines. Their viewpoint is subjective and ignorant.
‘If you are a scientist, we invite you to sign our Viewpoint article “World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency” by Ripple et al., which was recently published in BioScience Magazine. We welcome signatures of scientists from any scientific discipline, including graduate students in the sciences.’
The new high priests of your religion.
12
Where is this emergency and is this the survey that Mickey Mouse signed ?
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Pretty much the immature responses once could expect. You do have a few problems dealing with the reality of overwhelming scientific consensus, eh?
Do you also wish to rail against gravity, evolution, the DNA double helix, or the Second Law?
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Apples and pears, comrade.
12
Mention the Oregon Petition and that is the response you get. OK for warmies, “immature” for sceptics.
21
Where is this ‘climate change’ occurring?
Name a country, a continent, a location..
Where is this evidence of this scary ‘climate change’?
31
How come the average Joe can’t see this? Other than, the fact that the last few years have been colder than previous years?
Climate change?
Global Warming?
Pfft!
Tilba, I prefer reality to scams and scare-mongering.
21
The ten hottest years have been since 2005, the seven hottest since 2014. Even 1998 has dropped out of the Top 10.
Arctice Sea Ice Minimum is Declining
I remain very sceptical about the proposed solutions – renewables, electric cars, carbon credits, carbon pricing, and much else – including huge emitters like China dwarfing whatever efforts places like Australia and NZ make … but I am very comfortable with the science – that human-caused CO2 emissions are causing global warming above and beyond all the other factors in play (sun and the oceans, mostly).
02
France to ban short flights where trains are available
25
That’s actually quite sensible as many Europeans prefer their excellent fast trains, especially the TGV. However it is unnecessary government interference in free market choices, particularly to push an ideology. On my first trip to Europe I remember an Austrian who travelled by train simply because with winter fogs you often ended up further away by plane than when you started. And the trains and planes are linked with train stations under the airports even then. This government overreach is becoming more prevalent in many matters and in the case of Wu Flu, it has become extreme.
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The Bordeaux ban though is awful. As I remember the TGV would get you most of the way and then you had to change to a very slow train.
51
I’m guessing that’s just commercial flights.
John Kerry will still be able quick tour vineyards or check out chateaux for sale.
While he’s between conferences.
61
There’s always a new beaut battery being designed and promising much but after the initial fan fare they seem to disappear, this one stood out and could maybe possibly could one day in the never never be what powers the worlds energy needs .
Until then though I’ll keep using electrons from coal and driving an oil burner.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a35970222/radioactive-diamond-battery-will-run-for-28000-years/?utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflowFBPOP&utm_medium=social-media&fbclid=IwAR3tG1A4gI87jxt8vFWp_K8uTjk90wZKRDmC6rjFGOYPEmtJQSFDs7UjZZ4
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The bigger/better battery is an elusive dream. As you say there is always one just around the corner but if it can be charged faster the question becomes: Where? Infrastructure will [mostly] be the limiting factor. If it is more compact enabling more range they become even more fire-prone and hard to extinguish.
To reduce charge times to a competitive 10 minutes for 500 miles Mr Dork or his dumb kid will be handling cables and connectors carrying 500 kW. These connectors will be made and broken a thousand times between inspections by a guy who does a two day course. None of this is practicable.
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It just crossed my mind, this will be DC which has a far greater propensity to arc than AC. When AC arc welding [the common set up] the V potential goes through zero 100 times a sec and us beginners have difficulty maintaining the arc. A DC welder never goes to zero so easier for types like me to use.
As an aside, never use household AC switches wiring a caravan. They will burn out.
Wanna bet some “Richard” will find a way to unplug the charger with full current flowing and melt the connectors? I would want to be across the street.
40
Miller make a welding machine that you can set it to emit a HF spark of about 50mm which helps guide you to where you want to be and gives a boost when you initially strike your electrode.
The one we had wasn’t real cheap though.
10
This is an old thread now but I’ll correct myself anyway: DC out of a full wave rectifier but unfiltered still goes to zero volts 100 times per second, it just doesn’t reverse voltage.
00
H
This the one you had in mind?
https://www.orangetractortalks.com/forums/threads/the-two-day-course.31320/
20
Got it in one!
A couple of weeks ago No 1 son bunked down with us while doing a “2 day course” on HV termination. He didn’t knock it, it was something he needed to know but when he fronted the instructor said “You look like a bright mob, we’ll wrap this up in a day”. Everyone got paid for two days, took one off.
40
The future of education has arrived 🙂
10
Interesting story from New Zealand – reading tree rings from ancient kauri trees
Live kauri trees are extraordinary – the Waipoua Forest north of Auckland.
21
This caught my eye, I’ll look for comparison with GBR corals.
‘Using this information, the team was able create a 700-year reconstruction of ENSO variability in northern New Zealand, providing a lengthy picture of the country’s natural climate variation.’
30
TT… welcome to February https://joannenova.com.au/2021/02/extinction-level-event-42000-years-ago-earths-magnetic-field-shrank-to-nothing
you even commented
10
From memory there was talk about the geomagnetic excursion around 42,000 years ago, the kauri tree picked up the signal.
00
Good grief GI – I can barely remember where I left the car keys, let alone a thread from February 🙂
00
I’ll vouch for Tilba on the memory.
10
Guess Kevni didn’t get the memo …
Who should pick up the tab for the costs of [global warming] in north Queensland?
by Richard Denniss
“Which brings me back to the risky activity of owning a house by the ocean in tropical north Queensland. “
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/06/who-should-pick-up-the-tab-for-the-costs-of-climate-change-in-north-queensland
Therese Rein and Kevin Rudd reshuffle Noosa real estate, add $5m designer digs
Businesswoman Therese Rein, wife of former prime minister Kevin Rudd, has deepened her appreciation of Noosa real estate, splashing $5 million for a designer residence known as Coral Sea House at Sunshine Beach.
Rein’s latest purchase comes just six months after she splashed $17 million for the nearby beachfront home of Betty’s Burgers founder David Hales and his wife Louise, who in turn purchased it two years ago for $15.2 million from tennis champ Pat Rafter and his wife Lara.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/therese-rein-and-kevin-rudd-reshuffle-noosa-real-estate-add-5m-designer-digs-1012547/
Perhaps Kevni did get the memo …
11 years ago Rudd said we risked losing 700,000 waterfront homes to climate change – he just bought one
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/07/11-years-ago-rudd-said-we-risked-losing-700000-waterfront-homes-to-climate-change-he-just-bought-one.html
Make that 699.698 houses at risk.
21
Have you not been to Sunshine Beach … all the million dollar properties are quite high up the cliff-face – well above sea-level rise predictions 🙂
01
Doomsday Global Warming sea level rise.
It’s not as worse as we first thought …
13 April, 2021: Sea levels are going to rise by at least 20ft. We can do something about it
“The key questions are how soon this sea level rise will happen and whether humans can cool the atmosphere and oceans quickly enough to prevent part of this.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2021/apr/13/sea-level-rise-climate-emergency-harold-wanless
20 feet? It was 25 metres!
2006: Climate’s last chance
James Hanson, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute, is arguably the world authority on climate change.
He predicts that we have just a decade to avert a 25-metre rise of the sea.
Picture an eight-storey building by a beach, then imagine waves lapping its roof.
That’s what a 25-metre rise in sea level looks like.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/climates-last-chance-20061028-ge3fvb.html
97% ‘science’ goal posts: moving.
51
Pentagon acknowledges UFO are a mystery.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9463375/Video-UFOs-buzzing-Navy-warship-leaked.html
10
So Tilba believes that humans are the primary cause of Global Warming. Not surprising, since Tilba has a GOD COMPLEX and simply believes the LIES that most of the “hottest years” have been since 1998. Memo for Tilba…the Earth has been COOLING since 1998, and the SUN has EVERYTHING to do with it (not us puny humans). CO2 is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT to CC and GW in this era of Earth’s existence.
10
This is interesting. The mRNA technology appears to won. The old vaccine technology cannot compete.
The EU has decided not to renew it covid vaccine contracts with AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.
The EU has decided to focus on covid vaccines using mRNA technology, like Pfizer and Moderna.
“We need to focus on technologies that have proven their worth. mRNA vaccines are a clear case in point,” she added.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronovirus-eu-vaccines/eu-commission-to-end-astrazeneca-and-jj-vaccine-contracts-at-expiry-paper-idUSKBN2C10MU
00