This week a mild Coronal Mass Ejection off the sun blasted past Earth. It was only a mild CME with solar winds at 500km per second, which is a medium kind of speed. The experts were all predicting a G1 class Geomagnetic storm, and were a bit astonished when we got much bigger G3 storm instead. (NOAA’s G scale runs from G1 up to G5).
This occurred near the minimum weak point of the solar cycle, and we’re going to get much bigger blasts as Cycle 25 ramps up. But if mild CMEs can rattle the Earth’s magnetic field this much, things might get much more exciting when moderate or strong CME’s shake the cage. Satellites and networks could be in trouble. “Grid’s Away”…
Is Earths magnetic field weaker or more vulnerable than we thought? How could we miss that?
As Cap Allon of Electroverse said:
“Nobody saw the KP Index hitting 7.
…when I say nobody, I mean nobody predicted this: not NASA, NOAA, ESA or IPS in Australia.”
It was not dense, and the filament released was hardly cause for concern.
“There is absolutely nothing in the history of space weather that advises the expectation of a strong geomagnetic storm off a mild CME produced by the eruption of a small plasma filament,” says Ben Davidson of SpaceWeatherNews.com.
What happens when the next one hits on the heels of a coronal hole stream?
Or if the filament was bigger?
What happens when that X-class solar flare is launched in our direction?
According to NOAA a G3 storm is a “strong” one, with a Kp of 7, and can be expected to cause this kind of disruption.
Spacecraft operations: Surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.).
Questions for readers: I would think we would have very accurate readings of Earth’s magnetic field, so wonder what it is about this that meant the experts got surprised? Are there some components of the whole field that we don’t record well, or didn’t think mattered? Perhaps the solar wind hit at “just the right angle”? Is this just a one off event, amplified for some reason we don’t understand, or is it a sign of things to come.
Thanks to Sophocles.
Umm, just after commenting about reliance on digital money earlier.
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Yes Annie if a big event happens digital money will be useless but credit cards and our cashless society will also be useless, I thought those authorities mentioned would be looking at this sort of thing instead of counting CO2 molecules.
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Yes indeed Robert. Their attitudes make for interesting speculation as to their ignorance, stupidity, naivity or worse, don’t they?
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I understand from the writings of Satoshi that with SPV, Bitcoin can do offline transactions that are completed when the wallet goes back online. This is fine for smaller transactions – so coffee sales would continue – not so sure about car sales! It is possible to transact Bitcoin over amateur radio.
Try that with your MasterCard.
Just looking around our mostly electric home – might be a bit tough for a day or two and very uncomfortable if it lasts longer than that!
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Looks like the modelling for geomagnetic storms needs to be updated for our weakening magnetic field. Surely some funding could be diverted for this from climate studies
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Analytic said:
The magnetic field for navigation was updated last year. We don’t have any models for geomagnetic storms. CMEs are the output of solar flares which is what sunspots do. We do measure flares with reasonable accuracy and the direction the CMEs go in. This one was straight between the eyes.
But Kp 7 … wow.
It shouldn’t have been more than just a ripple for our field at normal strength about Kp 2 for the weakened one. It wasn’t.
I’m picking, based on little evidence, that we will lose grids starting in about 6 years +/- 3 yrs.
I’m going out to purchase a generator tomorrow. To run it, is going to take petrol. I can’t afford a diesel driven plant and the stores don’t stock those — they’re regarded as industrial plant, but it makes more sense.
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The experts were all predicting a G1 class Geomagnetic storm
If the experts were making predictions, then they have some sort of modelling. Obviously, the model is inaccurate since the prediction was quite different to the observation so the solar scientists need to update it (rather than altering the observations to fit the model as climate scientists would do).
I bought a 2kVA petrol generator a couple of years ago to keep our refrigeration going in anticipation of blackouts from Hazelwood shutting down. It’s been used once for that and a couple of times when the lines have gone down from storm damage. If a large Carrington event was to hit us, the widespread damage to electronics could disable its inverter.
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G1 Geomagnetic storm = Minor (nothing to work up a sweat about) 😀
I guess (operative word) that experience and rules of thumbs are sort of models, too. That’s what we have at the moment.
“Umm, that one’s probably gonna be about a Kp 3, at most. Yeah, it’ll be a G1.” and it’s usually either a bit high or quite correct.
Serious modelling is being worked on, it’s looking close (sort of) but it isn’t here yet.
Gee. Seems like your “refrigeration protection” was a timely intervention. I will be in a similar predicament if I don’t move now.
I had two power cuts — “for network maintenance” — last week. First one was for only 20 minutes and second one was nearly 30 mins.
Not a problem this time around.
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I’ll blame my brain farts on space weather as the cause instead of old age…
Works for me!
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When a biggie arrives populations will run mad as their civil engineering disintegrates around them; it’ll be swift and awful.
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You’re beginning to get the idea…
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We’re on the upward side of SSC 25 so there will be quite a few flares, and maybe 2 or 3 larger flares. Those are going to be 3 or 4 times stronger if this last one was anything to go by.
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Shortage of money is going to be a biggie.
Petrol pumps use electricity …
EV Chargers use electricity …
Electronic billing uses electricity
The Internet is driven by electricty
Cash registers run on electricity so do computers so how are you going to charge your dumb phone?
Anybody spot the problems with this?
The Greenies want everything to be electrified. That is going to come back and bite them in the bum.
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Nearly everyone can charge their phone in their car…… if they have fuel, that is.
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Wont matter much as the cell towers start to die. I guess they could play solitaire or candy crush.
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Most things are electrified anyway, i doubt if the gas supply will last very long without electricity. The greens would be the least of our problems.
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Dr Vincent Pry spells it all out:
2015: EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security: DR. PETER VINCENT PRY. STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD
President Obama denied that North Korea could deliver on these threats, claiming that North Korea does not yet have nuclear armed missiles.
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So another Carrington event, but this time round -150 years later-when we all have electricity.
This subject comes up with astonishing regularity then gets forgotten, so whether any lessons are learnt as regards preparation is doubtful.
However, for a Carrington event read ‘deliberate sabotage by unfriendly powers’. Our infrastructure is extremely vulnerable thanks to the internet and a combined attack on banking, electricity, food supplies, energy, water and communications, or perhaps only 2 out of the six, will finish off modern society very quickly. As each day passes and I see how so many peoples lives are played out on their smartphone, perhaps a deliberate hack just aimed at smartphones would be enough to bring society down?
In an age when even fridges can be connected to the internet the chances of unfriendly intervention through hacking is much greater than a Carrington event. Will we de-internet things? Will we decide that as a society we don’t really want an internet of things, let alone when it makes critical infrastructure vulnerable.
I wouldn’t bet on it. People are beguiled by cheap shiny baubles and the idea that not everything is better when connected to the internet would be seen as quaint.
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Cash is suddenly attractive. When the grid goes down, those businesses who don’t accept cash will regret it. When the grid goes down, so will debit/credit cards etc.
Cash Will Rule OK!
Hey:
There’s some interesting research going on here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8C20q-eDm8
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Cash is only relevant for short duration outages or disasters. Keeping some in small notes in case of evacuation for bushfires etc makes sense. Longer term fiat doesnt mean much and barterable goods will.
People may also have cause to reflect on their attitude to firearms and knowing how to use and maintain them.
I hope none of that happens.
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I hope none of that happens but every day that passes sees critical infrastructure become ever more reliant on the internet. A hack on your toaster today, an attack on your water tomorrow.
Incidentally what on EARTH is the point of internet enabled toasters and fridges that you can ‘operate from anywhere in the world?’
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Make sure your side of the planet isn’t facing the sun when the pulse hits. Otherwise, your civilization might just get wrecked.
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An expert, by definition, is a person who is very knowledgeable in their given field. Well, that’s how it used to be. Since the advent of post-normal science, we seem to have created a glut of post-normal experts. They are not experts in the traditional sense, as they are full of opinion but sadly lacking in knowledge.
An opinion, by definition, is a view or judgement formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge. So an “Expert opinion” is actually a supposedly knowledgeable person giving a personal view not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.
The world has too many experts, too many opinions and not enough knowledge.
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Good luck with that. But as you know, Good Luck runs out very quickly.
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I think a pulse of any size would be the perfect excuse for a Great Reset, don’t you?
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A ‘space weather report from that period by ‘space weather woman’ Tamitha Skov.
Should be interesting to see if Tamitha does a follow up analysis focusing on the magnetosphere.
Big Flares Return with Solar Storms Headed for Earth & Mars | Space Weather News 05.10.2021
12,491 views
•May 11, 2021
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Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTSG2Jqzntw
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Interestingly, no one of the space groups, climate groups, or the associated branches study the sun? In all the equations I’ve ever seen that blame mankind for it’s contribution to earthly problems, there are none that say the sun can cause problems. Or, that the sun may cause a problem. But, then there are events, Carrington, and beach party goer’s who realize that the sun can be a problem. But it is going toward summer here, the beach is calling,..
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They do but any publications linking climate events with solar events gets “disappeared”
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The IPCC is only interested in TSI. They’re blind.
(and stupid.)
TSI doesn’t blow up transformers —they go BANG big time with huge Earth Currents.
Do we have any Electrical Engineers (Power Generation and esp. Distribution)?
Don’t be shy. Your knowledge and experience is needed … it’s outside my knowledge, I only have an overview, patchy at that.
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Interesting post and (I think) totally ignored by the MSM.
My feeble knowledge of radio communications makes me feel the higher frequency based technologies like 5G will be particularly susceptible to events like these.
I pray military weapons systems have these events factored into their fail-safe contingencies.
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I did get the email notification, as I subscribe to them on the site. I would tell, ensure you filter them well or your inbox will fill up. K6 and above is my level.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 116
Issue Time: 2021 May 12 1759 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2021 May 12 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 – Strong
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft – Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation – Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio – HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
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How much warning did you get of the size or was this real time as it happened?
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I got this alert about an hour prior to the K7 alert. The UTC time stamp seems to be about a 12hr difference however. I assume these are in real time once the alert is initiated in their system, but am uncertain how they correlate to impact times. Similar to a weather watch vs a warning perhaps?
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 182
Issue Time: 2021 May 12 0556 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2021 May 12 0554 UTC
Valid To: 2021 May 12 0700 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2021 May 12 0547 UTC
Albeit, they have supplemental information on their discussion page on current alerts, but I could not access any aside from the current discussion. The details show this occurs at least twice daily?
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
“Issued every 12 hours, twice daily at 0030 UTC and 1230 UTC (and updated out-of-cycle as conditions warrant), detailing recently observed space weather data, model guidance, and forecaster rationale and tailored toward the sophisticated user and detailed scientific perspective “ Forecast and observed (summary) criterion is broken down into 4 sections by phenomenon type and 2 sub-sections; Summary and Forecast.”
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Oh? FWIW I’m out at midnight tending the stock before I turn in. We are experiencing the darkest nights ( and heading to midsummer in N Latitudes – skies should be lightening ). NO Streetlight glare anymore (LEDs – but not much in summer anyroad). NO Moon -been below the horizon: funny how I never noticed that before in Summer. No mention of activity on https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk – and when there was, NOTHING to see here – are the bbcweather fotos all fake? -being from some earlier events?
All that happenned here was that the weather was grim and WE felt glum -and then the Sat receivers started acting up – meaning they STALLED and had to be re-booted several times … Birdies on the wires is wot the tekkies tell me – daft fowk!
And then in conversation with the WaterBoard operative / supervisor, ….’ Aye I noticed too that the Sun doesn’t set in the same place anymore at a particular time of year….’ What ?
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I wasn’t paying attention, but I was shown a photo of a quite spectacular aurora visible from Hobart. I was wondering if it might still be there next week when we visit.
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I wonder if John Kerry can spell CME?
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The geomagnetic field has in the past abruptly changed and the changes correlate with solar changes.
In the last 10 years… it has been found that the abrupt failed geomagnetic field reversals correlate in time with abrupt climate changes. Makes sense. Abrupt climate changes are forced.
The duration of the abrupt climate change correlates with drop in the geomagnetic field. The Younger Dryas abrupt climate change for example which occurred 12,900 years ago (earth went from interglacial warm to glacial cold, with 70% of the cooling occurring in less than a decade), lasted for 1200 years. The climate after the Younger Dryas abrupt failed geomagnetic reversal, returned (warmed) to interglacial warm when the core of the planet integrated the surface abrupt magnetic change.
The drop in geomagnetic field causes the long duration cooling. The sun must cause the abrupt surface magnetic field change to cause the geomagnetic change. That is a paradox as the sun should not be able to cause what is observed. However, it must be a surface event and the moon or other planets cannot cause surface magnetic field changes to the earth. The sun is the only possible suspect.
Obviously there is more evidence in Astronomy to explain what has happened in the past to the sun and why. A logical framework. Other objects that like the sun are not simple stars.
There is surface evidence (lava flows that capture a series of immense changes to the geomagnetic field that correlate with abrupt geological events) of abrupt changes to the geomagnetic field where the magnetic field on the surface which show the geomagnetic field has changes 6 degrees per day. Logically that is only possible is there was an immense charge discharge from top of atmosphere to the surface of the planet. Evidence of this would be the Younger Dryas burn marks on the surface of earth that include metal structures that are formed when there is an immense plasma discharge.
This is a 2021 Science paper that discusses an abrupt forced change to the earth’s geomagnetic field that occurred 41,000 years ago, the Laschamp failed geomagnetic reversal.
At that time the geomagnetic field strength dropped to less than 20% and for a period of 100 years dropped to 0 to 6% and the Neanderthals went extinct as well as 31 other species.
All of the past abrupt cyclic climate changes have been found to correlate with abrupt forced changes to the geomagnetic field.
Makes sense. Something was/is causing the cyclic abrupt geomagnetic field changes.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6531/811
A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago
“Sedimentary and volcanic deposits indicate a weakening of the magnetic field intensity to <28% of current levels during the reversed phase of the Laschamps and, notably, as little as 0 to 6% during the preceding transition as polarity switched…”
The Adams Transitional Geomagnetic Event and wider implications
“Overall, the signals discussed above suggest that contemporaneous climatic and environmental impacts occurred across the mid- to lower latitudes ~42 ka, coincident with Earth’s weakened geomagnetic field immediately preceding the reversed state of the Laschamps (Fig. 4).
We describe this as the “Adams Transitional Geomagnetic Event” (hereafter “Adams Event”), named after the science writer Douglas Adams because of the timing (the number “42”) and the associated range of extinctions (33).
William: The Neanderthals went extinct during the Laschamp failed geomagnetic reversal.
Previous studies may have failed to identify such a relationship between the Laschamps and climatic impacts because of the lack of temporal resolution and by focusing on the period of actual reversed geomagnetic field (41.5 to 41.1 ka) (5, 6) rather than the preceding extended phase of much weaker geomagnetic field (42.4 to 41.5 ka).
The lowered geomagnetic field intensity during the Adams Event, together with major changes in the intensity of cosmic radiation, is estimated to have increased levels of at- mospheric ionization and ultraviolet (UV) radiation, especially in equatorial and low latitudes (<40°), because of a 10-fold decrease in the cosmic ray cut-off rigidity (Fig. 5 and supplementary materials). During GSM, the ionization in the middle stratosphere and surface UV radiation levels are estimated to have been further heightened (up to 25 to 40% and 10 to 15% above current levels, respectively), after taking into account changes in the solar spectrum.
Furthermore, these values are likely to be much greater during the short-lived solar energetic particle (SEP)”
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‘All of the past abrupt cyclic climate changes have been found to correlate with abrupt forced changes to the geomagnetic field.’
Maybe, I’ll take a closer look.
Is there definitive evidence to support the idea that the Younger Dryas was not caused by an asteroid impact?
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A single object cannot breakup and cause burn marks at different latitudes and on different continents, on the earth. When a comet hit Jupiter it left a line of impacts on the surface of Jupiter… because when the comet broke up, the pieces of the comet still followed the same trajectory of the original whole object.
The YD burn marks could not be caused a single object. And the researchers found other burn marks which occurred at an early time when there was another failed geomagnetic reversal.
Logically there needs to be evidence of plasma burn marks on the surface of the earth to cause the observed abrupt, super, super fast geomagnetic field changes. The physics of the problem (which oddly enough is not a controversy scientifically… is ignored because the analysis is done by geologists, not physicists) require a surface magnetic field event to cause super fast and large geomagnetic field changes. A liquid core change cannot physically cause the geomagnetic field changes observed. A back EMF is generated when there are liquid core changes that creates electric currents in the liquid core, that resists fast geomagnetic field changes. It physically impossible for a liquid core change to cause large abrupt geomagnetic field changes.
The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion is the physical cause of the YD cooling for 1200 years. Why is it not discussed, in the impact theory paper?
“The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion in a broad sense ranges from 13,750 to 12,350 years BP and ends with the Gothenburg Magnetic Flip at 12,400−12,350 years BP (= the Fjärås Stadial in southern Scandinavia) with an equatorial VGP position in the central Pacific.”
An impact would cause cooling for a couple of years (just like a major volcanic eruption). The YD cooling from interglacial warm to glacial cold (with 70% of the cooling occurring in less than a decade) was for 1200 years.
And there are small abrupt changes to the geomagnetic field that have been found which also correlate with small changes in climate. i.e. What must be explained concerning how the geomagnetic field has changed? Why did the North Geomagnetic pole drift velocity increase by a factor of three in 1997? Correlating with a sudden change warming?
There is sufficient evidence to solve the problem. The YD is not a unique event. Abrupt climate change is cyclic. It is a fact, that there is now unequivocal evidence that the geomagnetic field has been found to change cyclically abruptly correlating with the abrupt climate change. Why? What is causing that physical change to the geomagnetic field?
Large changes to the sun that changes the earth’s geomagnetic field would leave other evidence in the solar system. And there is. And there would be evidence in Astronomy. This is sort of a big deal, from a scientific standpoint and a practical standpoint. The astronomical evidence is mature.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003358947790031X
The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1134%2FS0016793212050076#
Manifestation of the gothenburg geomagnetic field excursion in sediments on the northwestern Central Russian Upland
“Abstract
The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion in a broad sense ranges from 13,750 to 12,350 years BP and ends with the Gothenburg Magnetic Flip at 12,400−12,350 years BP (= the Fjärås Stadial in southern Scandinavia) with an equatorial VGP position in the central Pacific.
The Gothenburg Magnetic Flip is recorded in five closely dated and mutually correlated cores in Sweden. In all five cores, the inclination is completely reversed in the layer representing the Fjärås Stadial dated at 12,400−12,350 years BP. The cores were taken 160 km apart and represent both marine and lacustrine environments.”
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/104/41/16016.full.pdf?sid=301c9f4
Evidence for an extraterrestrial impact 12,900 years ago that contributed to the megafaunal extinctions and the Younger Dryas cooling
…carbon-rich black layer, dating to 12.9 ka (12,900 calendar years B.P.) (1), has been identified by C. V. Haynes, Jr. (2), a 50 sites across North America as black mats, carbonaceous silts, or dark organic clays [supporting information (SI) Fig. 5]. The age of the base of this black layer coincides with the abrupt onset of Younger Dryas (YD) cooling, after which there is no evidence for either in situ extinct megafaunal remains or Clovis artifacts.
Increasing evidence suggests that the extinction of many mammalian and avian taxa occurred abruptly and perhaps catastrophically at the onset of the YD, and this extinction was pronounced in North America where at least 35 mammal genera disappeared (3), in- cluding mammoths, mastodons, ground sloths, horses, and camels, along with birds and smaller mammals. At Murray Springs, AZ, a well known Clovis site, mammoth bones and Clovis-age stone tools lie directly beneath the black layer where, as described by Haynes (4): ‘‘[T]he sudden extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna would
Each of the 10 Clovis-age sites displays a YDB layer (average thickness of 3 cm) that contains a diversity of markers (magnetic microspherules and grains, charcoal, soot, carbon spherules, glass- like carbon, nanodiamonds, and fullerenes with ET helium).
The Ir levels are above background in both bulk sediment and magnetic fractions at up to 117 parts per billion (ppb), which is 25% of levels in CI (Ivuna type) chondritic meteorites (23).
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There is a debate about the cause of the YD, so let us discuss what happened down on earth.
‘The current theory is that the Younger Dryas was caused by significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic “Conveyor”, which circulates warm tropical waters northward, in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America.’ wiki
There is also a new theory that the Atlantic conveyor belt is not a major player.
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Urban legend theories are theories (fake mechanisms to explain a cyclic event that is forced not chance) which are repeated (like fairy tales) when there is obvious data and logic that supports the assertion that the theories in question are completely incorrect (dead theories), not part of the solution.
The solution (ultimate cause of the forcing change) must explain what is forcing the geomagnetic field. The past geomagnetic field changes correlate with abrupt climate changes like the termination of interglacial periods and the start of interglacial periods. Obviously the effect on the geomagnetic field depends on the orbital parameters at the time when the forcing happens.
What delayed solving/discovering this geomagnetic field is changing abruptly, cyclically paradox is it was assumed incorrectly that the change in the geomagnetic field in the paleo data was caused by the temperature change and was not a real change in the geomagnetic field strength. It took a decade to find different sources to determine that geomagnetic field is changing abruptly and cyclically.
And also it was assumed that the geomagnetic field is/was caused by currents in the liquid core of the planet which also has been proven incorrect. It is physically impossible for liquid core changes to cause the rapid field changes in molten lava that cooled on the surface of the planet. A back EMF would be generated that strongly resists fast core magnetic field changes. This is a surface change that is intergrated into the field in the case of the YD, after 1200 years, at which time the geomagnetic strength rises and the Northern hemisphere warmed back to interglacial warm.
Waiting for another failed geomagnetic reversal except because of the changes in orbital position, this geomagnetic reversal will cause a drop in geomagnetic field strength at is not recovered from.
Basic analysis using atmospheric/ocean coupled model shows a complete stoppage of the North Atlantic Drift current (see Seager’s paper which has published in both American Scientist to reach a general audience and a specialist journal) could not cause the Younger Dryas cooling.
And this is the kicker, observationally/logically. It has been known for more than a decade based on analysis of ancient floods in the St. Laurence, that the largest fresh water burst in to the North Atlantic, in the Holocene occurred a 1000 years before the YD abrupt cooling event.
Two points. There was no abrupt cooling at the time of massive fresh water pulse. And second analysis shows cooling of a complete stoppage of the North Atlantic drift current would not and could not cause the YD cooling.
Third point. Wally Broeker started the Gulf Stream urban legend when the massive fresh water pulse has discovered…. Without analysis by just suggesting that there could be a connection. Analysis killed Wally’s theory. And observations killed Wally’s theory.
The problem in Climate ‘Science’ the hard evidence points to something that is adjusting the geomagnetic field discreetly, fast, with a small, large, and very large forcing. That is what is in the paleo record. The scientific community has not responded.
1. The discrete thermal halone ocean conveyor theory has been proven incorrect by ocean float data. The discrete thermal halone conveyor started with a picture that Wally Broeker included in a paper without proof. Wally just drew the picture and it has been repeated as if it were true. Ocean float data shows only 8% of the flow in the North Atlantic follows the Broeker conveyor path (i.e. No conveyor). Therefore, changes in the fresh water flow cannot interrupt the North Atlantic drift current and changes in the North Atlantic drift current do not affect ocean current flow in the Southern Hemisphere.
2. And in addition and more importantly Basic analysis (See link below) shows the heat transferred by the North Atlantic drift current is three times less than the heat that is transfer from every summer due to the solar warming of the North Atlantic ocean and the prevailing winds being east to west. The west to east winds, is the same reason why the West coast of the US is much warmer in the winter than the east coast of the US. A complete interruption to the North Atlantic drift current therefore cannot and did not cause the cyclic warming and cooling of Europe and Greenland Ice sheet.
3. There is in the paleo record simultaneous warming and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere that is simultaneous with the warming and cooling in the North hemisphere. If ocean currents where the cause of the warming there would be roughly a 1000 year lag.
4. When the Southern hemisphere, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and the Northern hemisphere warm, the Antarctic ice cools. This phenomenon is called confusingly the Polar see-saw. The effect where the Antarctic ice sheet cools when there is an increase in cloud cover occurs because the albedo of the Antarctic ice sheet is greater than the albedo of clouds. Therefore, a decrease in cloud cover over the Antarctic causes cooling of that ice sheet rather than cooling. The albedo of the Greenland ice sheet is less than the Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet is not isolated by a polar vortex and hence unlike the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland ice sheet follows the temperature of the surrounding ocean.
The cartoon drawing showing deep ocean currents following a discrete path is not correct. That cartoon drawing was original included in a paper by Wally Broeker without proof and has since been copied infinitum.
This is the second study that confirm the results of the first study there is no discrete deep water current, to interrupt is correct.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090513130942.htm
Cold Water Ocean Circulation Doesn’t Work As Expected
The familiar model of Atlantic ocean currents that shows a discrete “conveyor belt” of deep, cold water flowing southward from the Labrador Sea is probably all wet.
A 50-year-old model of ocean currents had shown this southbound subsurface flow of cold water forming a continuous loop with the familiar northbound flow of warm water on the surface, called the Gulf Stream.
“Everybody always thought this deep flow operated like a conveyor belt, but what we are saying is that concept doesn’t hold anymore,” said Duke oceanographer Susan Lozier. “So it’s going to be more difficult to measure these climate change signals in the deep ocean.”
But only 8 percent of the RAFOS floats’ followed the conveyor belt of the Deep Western Boundary Current, according to the Nature report. About 75 percent of them “escaped” that coast-hugging deep underwater pathway and instead drifted into the open ocean by the time they rounded the southern tail of the Grand Banks.
Eight percent “is a remarkably low number in light of the expectation that the DWBC is the dominant pathway for Labrador Sea Water,” the researchers wrote.
Studies led by Lozier and other researchers had previously suggested cold northern waters might follow such “interior pathways” rather than the conveyor belt in route to subtropical regions of the North Atlantic. But “these float tracks offer the first evidence of the dominance of this pathway compared to the DWBC.”
http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/Seager_AmSci_2006.pdf
The Source of Europe’s Mild Climate
The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth
If you grow up in England, as I did, a few items of unquestioned wisdom are passed down to you from the preceding generation. Along with stories of a plucky island race with a glorious past and the benefits of drinking unbelievable quantities of milky tea, you will be told that England is blessed with its pleasant climate courtesy of the Gulf Stream, that huge current of warm water that flows northeast across the Atlantic from its source in the Gulf of Mexico.
Reduced solar activity as a trigger for the start of the Younger Dryas?
http://www.geo.vu.nl/~renh/pdf/Renssen-etal-QI-2000.pdf
From the paper published 20 years ago that killed the Gulf Stream silly theory. At that time the geomagnetic field observational data/puzzle had not been solved. The geomagnetic field data had been misinterpreted.
“The main late glacial meltwater pulse found by Fairbanks (1989) is dated at 14 ka cal BP, thus at least 1000 years before the start of the YD (Bard et al., 1996).”
“Estimates for the start of the YD all demonstrate a strong and rapid rise of C14 (William: Cosmogenic isotope that increases when there is decreased solar activity that hence allows increased galactic cosmic rays GCR to strike and interact with the atmosphere or in the case a abrupt change in the geomagnetic field) This change is the largest increase of atmospheric C14 known from the late glacial period and Holocene records.”
And there later it was discovered that there was a failed geomagnetic reversal before the YD event which causes the abrupt increase in C14 in the atmosphere.
And the mechanism must cool the planet for 1200 years. A Gulf Stream interruption cannot do that. It is comparison of mechanisms and what the mechanism can do.
And I might add there is observational evidence based on the timing of planetary orbit movement by satellites (three independent measurements, different satellites, formal analysis with error calculation), that the sun is gaining mass. This is proof that there something different about that object. It is not a simple fusion engine. There are other studies to support that assertion.
There is no conventional explanation. The sun should be losing mass due to E=mc^2 and due to the solar wind. This would make logical sense if the sun was a complex object that was produced in a Globural Cluster which is a massive concentration of star like objects. 60% of which rotate at high speed and have unusual element configuration and do not age like conventional stars.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0907.2469.pdf From one of the papers that discuss the orbit paradox. Sun mass paradox.
“However, rather than increasing, the AU should be decreasing, mainly as a result of loss of mass to solar radiation, and to a much lesser extent to the solar wind. The total solar luminosity is 3.845 × 10 26W (Livingston 1999). This luminosity divided by c 2gives an estimated mass loss of 1.350 × 10^17kg yr −1. The total mass of the Sun is 1.989 × 10^30 kg (Livingston 1999), so the fractional mass loss is 6.79 × 10 −14yr −1.
Again with the factor of three from Eq. 2.1, the expected fractional decrease in the AU is 2.26 × 10−14 yr −1, or a change in the AU of − 0.338 cm yr −1. A change this small is not currently detectable, and it introduces an insignificant bias into the reported measurement of an AU increase (Krasinsky & Brumberg 2004). If the reported increase is absorbed into a solar mass increase, and not into a changing gravitational constant G, the inferred solar mass increase is (6.0 ± 1.6) × 10^ 18kg yr −1. This is an unacceptable amount of mass accretion by the Sun each year. It amounts to a fair sized planetary satellite of diameter 140 km and with a density of 2000 kg m −3, or to about 40,000 comets with a mean radius of 2000 m.
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Thanks for that William, I cannot fault it.
Could a ‘failed geomagnetic reversal’ be called a geomagnetic excursion? In the same way that the 42,000 year event may also have been an ‘excursion’.
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The ‘forcing’ is external and not a core problem, for reasons you have already outlined.
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/geomagnetic-excursions-interglacial-termination-abrupt-climate-change.384098/
Its worth noting that the effect on the ground is not overwhelming when the planet is cool, but its impact during interglacials is significant.
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I’ll put this up for clarity.
https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/12/north-atlantic-nonsense/
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Thanks for the link; I may never emerge from its labyrinth of comments.
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Hi Jo,
The following NASA page has some useful hints:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-researchers-track-slowly-splitting-dent-in-earth-s-magnetic-field
The European Space Agency’s Swarm constellation collects data on the state of the Earth’s magnetic field. No links to show how that data is turned into useful information.
There is a model of the Earth’s magnetic field, known as the International Geomagnetic Reference Field, that is used by researchers for forecasting purposes. However, again, no links to any useful information provided by the IGRF.
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The other source of information is the World Magnetic Model, which as other commentators have mentioned, was updated in 2020. Details and links to the WMM2020 data are available here:
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/WMM/
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Further discussion on the subject.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/13/the-greatest-geomagnetic-storm-of-the-20th-centurymay-13-15-1921a-century-ago-new-york-city-new-york-state-were-especially-hard-hit/
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This is serious. We need a shield between ourselves and the sun. I suggest we construct a giant spaceship to go into orbit above the sun and between us and any storm. Obvious candidates for the crew include scientists, people from the UN and the IPCC and maybe Bill Gates who could work out what sort of dust cloud should be floated in space to reduce the effect on the earth.
We could call it the Ark B.
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Don’t use dust. Use Bitcoins!
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Calling Bruce Willis of the Thunderbirds International Rescue team.
Thunderbirds are Go!
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It’s unlikely that the magnetic field has suddenly dropped causing this event. A more likely cause is from a small (and temporary) hole in the field.
But on this topic, all of the additional long distance transmission lines being installed to support remote RE infra does make the grid far more vulnerable to CMEs. In fact this additional risk will ultimately become an accident waiting to happen, even with smaller CMEs that wouldn’t cause an issue for the thermal generations using much smaller pre-RE transmission footprints.
This is another reason not to go green and where the green Marxist people-haters will again look the other way, because as we know these people don’t care about human life.
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NOAA to the rescue:
This is the NOAA map of the field for last year (2020)
https://ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/WMM/data/WMM2020/WMM2020_D_BoZ_MILL.pdf
field strength is not given, but you can see the layout which has developed
since last century. Note. too, the positions of the magnetic poles. Twenty
five years ago, they were still in (or very near) their accustomed positions.
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Aloha! The geoelectric field map in the video at 1:26min does not show total USA effects.
The 1921 event was similar to the Carrington 1859 event. This hit the southern hemisphere and was recorded at Watheroo West Australia. Interesting that the 1921 event was in May too!
4 Analog Magnetogram Records for the May 1921 Storm
From inspection of observatory records held in several archives, for the May 1921 storm, we identify four complete (or reasonably complete) geomagnetic records from low‐latitude magnetic observatories located at Watheroo, Australia (WAT, 30.32°S, 115.88°E; geomagnetic for 1920: 41.56°S, 175.08°E), Apia, Western Samoa (API, 13.81°S, 188.22°E; geomagnetic: 16.09°S, 100.41°E), San Fernando, Spain (SFS, 36.46°N, 353.79°E; geomagnetic: 40.89°N, 70.57°E), and Vassouras, Brazil (VSS, 22.400°S, 316.35°E; geomagnetic: 11.81°S, 23.29°E).
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Aloha! Go to the 1:26min in the video. Stop it there! The most intense yellowish areas signify more intense geoelectric disturbances follow the Colonial Pipeline along the eastern seaboard very closely! After the May 8 supposed pipeline hack by Russians another three more hit after that! If the CME hit on May 12 what was the effect on restoring operations? Would the US government lie and blame Russia to cover for a CME? In a NYC nanosecond!
After the last four years nobody in the USA trusts the following US based agencies:
US Congress
FBI
CIA
NSA
DHS
DOJ
DNC
NYT
CNN
ABC
NBC
MSNBC
CBS
NPR
CDC
FDA
SEC
AFL
NFL
MLB
NBA
Hollywood
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Hmm. Well that’s an interesting new idea. 🙂
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I’m not sure there is a known mechanism for a geo storm to affect a pipeline ?. The CMEs cause electric charges on transmission lines, which then creates a large DC current which discharges back into the transformer and generator windings. If the currents become large enough it can destroy the grid infrastructure, and usually safety protection will kick in to prevent damage.
For a pipeline laid on the ground, excess charges will flow to ground meaning no issue.
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Aloha! When we built the Benicia Water Treatment Plant in Northern California the entire control room is set up based on telemetry data transmission and all control of valves and tanks and pumps were electrical connections(low and high v) in the field and of course the control room! Without any data transmission the system was designed to go to a default multi-level shut down mode. Without data from pumps and valves and injectors and flow meters you cannot trust any sort of accuracy and the chemical injections were automated to treat water! I have to say some chemicals in high dosages would not be beneficial to humans or the vast water piping that ran for hundreds of miles from the plant to storage tanks and towers and reservoirs to homes and businesses! We had giant flocculation, coagulation and sedimentation filter tanks and pump wells! Back then which was 1988 we had optional manual controls of valves, but we never tested for any sort of outage event other than direct power, where there were backup diesel generators with a 200gal tank.
On a pipeline telemetry uses satellite transmission since the pipeline is thousands of miles. At a water treatment plant the area used is much more condensed and no need for satellite. Other methods of transmitting data via telemetry are radio, infrared, ultrasonic, GSM and even cable depending on the application.
Sadly the focus in politics is nothing that would be beneficial to We The People in terms of surviving a really serious CME. It is odd that in a time of the highest human technological development that we are the least secure.
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ok, that makes sense if you’re referring to communications systems, but in the recent pipeline shutdown there were no reported communications disturbances or grid disturbances related to a CME.
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Gavin plays down the significance of the excursion at 42,000 years bp.
‘To be clear, the modelling that was done in this paper was good (if extreme) and suggested that the geomagnetic event combined with a severe grand solar minimum (much bigger than the Maunder minimum) would cause significant depletion of the ozone layer and some shifts in the annular modes.
‘But the ozone depletion is less than we’ve seen due to anthropogenic ozone depletion since the 1980s, and the surface climate changes don’t seem very significant at all – especially compared to the massive variability exhibited in the ice cores throughout the last ice age (particularly in Marine Isotope Stage 3 – the Dansgaard-Oeschgar events).
‘At best these are nuanced and subtle climate effects, and certainly not anything apocalyptic (despite Stephen Fry’s dulcet tones).’ (Gavin / Real Climate 2021)
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…should we maybe back up our photos and files?
Get extra stores at home and keep our vehicles topped up??
I’m going to get some old fashioned photos
printed…just in case
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Nice discussion on the solar storm of 1921.
https://www.spaceweather.com/
excerpt:
“THE GREAT GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF MAY 1921: You know a solar storm is serious when buildings catch on fire. It really happened 100 years ago today.
On May 15, 1921, the biggest solar storm of the 20th century hit Earth. Around 02:00 GMT that Sunday morning a telegraph exchange in Sweden burst into flames. Across the Atlantic, the same thing was going on in New York. Flames engulfed the switch-board at the Brewster station of the Central New England Railroad and quickly spread to destroy the whole building. During the conflagration, long distance telephone lines burned out in New Brunswick; voltages on telegraph lines in the USA spiked as high as 1000 V; and auroras were sighted by ships at sea crossing the equator. It was a Big. Solar. Storm.”
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Wander, Wander, Wander. About 50% of responses at least vaguely acknowledges the topic at hand. WTF has bitcoin to do with solar radiation/magnetism? Start responding properly, people
00
Is it any wonder? The Ice-Age is ahead: Global Warming by the Sun peaked in the 1960s and is now reversing. All this is measured in historic isotope ratios, in sunspot numbers, and also by spacecraft that measured solar-wind pressure. The historic global warming is now reversing. The Sun is ‘dying’ back. Solar activity is collapsing. Solar-wind pressure is diminishing. Solar radio solar flux is down to half. All this is reflected in the climate getting colder year after year. What this means? A full Ice-Age is near, and may occur in the 2050’s. That’s what we need to prepare for, scientifically, culturally, spiritually, and economically, while time remains for the next event.
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Lots of people know about the 1869 event and now the 1921 event but not many mention the 1909 and 1903 events.
Left two columns of this page.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/page/18533224
This is just very funny.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/97207494
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1882
“The
switchboard in the office of the Western Union
Telegraph Company was on fire a dozen times
during the forenoon, and half-a-dozen keys and
instruments were melted by the current, which
continued to pass even when the screw was
turned up and the points parted to the farthest
extent.” Out of the 15 wires connecting
Chicago and New York only one was in opera
tion, and it was frequently interrupted. A re
port from Milwaukie states that the electricity
transmitted spontaneously on one of the wires
had sufficient dynamic power to keep an elec
tric light burning. Messages, it is said, were
sent from Bangor to North Sydney and Cape
Breton, 700 miles, without a battery.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/88579965
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GW will not reverse until at least the 2050s, but this is indeed in line with Solar Activity. Let the AGW trash (ie: Mann, Gore, Kerry, Turnbull, Flannery, Attenborough etc etc) have their unscientific say, but they are wrong, and always will be.
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[…] Via JoNova: “Nobody saw the KP Index hitting 7. […] when I say nobody, I mean nobody predicted this: not NASA, NOAA, ESA or IPS in Australia.” […]
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