JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Activist heads explode as USFWS says oil activities pose minimal risk to polar bears in AK
From Polar Bear Science
Posted on May 30, 2021
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/31/activist-heads-explode-as-usfws-says-oil-activities-pose-minimal-risk-to-polar-bears-in-ak/
81
GEOCARBSULF
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/30/geocarbsulf/
61
“Temperature records during the Cretaceous” is laughable in its own right. Who kept said records? Try “temperature guesses”.
152
From 145 to 66 million years ago, there were continuous NASA recording systems in place. If you don’t believe that, try calibrated proxies which give absolute temperature certainty to 0.1C.
160
Apparently trees were really good thermometers. And we have lots of fossilized trees from that time period, Hell we could build a constant temperature record for those 79 million years. (And don’t you dare mention that those trees are different to todays trees)…
20
Solar farms: A toxic blot on the landscape
Reposted from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
MAY 30, 2021
By Paul Homewood
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/30/solar-farms-a-toxic-blot-on-the-landscape/
111
Solar farms? I propose the term “solar slabs”.
I just calculated that California, with everything electrified, would need about 1.5 million acres of solar slabs, assuming no clouds or rain. 500,000 acres produce power for use during the 8 hour solar power period and the rest charge the batteries for the other 16 hours a day. Clouds, rain and snow increase this number.
120
How much more electricity do we need to go to 100% electric vehicles?
October 19, 2016 by Roger Andrews
As reported in Blowout week 146 the EU is drafting legislation to mandate the installation of electric vehicle charging stations in new homes while Germany and the Netherlands are considering legislation requiring that all cars and light vehicles sold after 2025 or 2030 must be 100% electric. None of this legislation has as yet been approved, but if it is how much extra electricity will be needed to power the millions of EVs involved, and how much will it cost? I’ve seen no numbers on this, so in this post I present some, starting with Germany, the Netherlands and the EU and adding a few more countries – and the world – as we go. Because of the uncertainties in the data and assumptions used the numbers should be considered as ball-park estimates only.
First Sources of data:
I used the following data to make estimates of how much additional electricity and electric generating capacity would be needed to power the EV fleets:
1. Number of cars and light vehicles currently registered
I obtained these data from a variety of sources too numerous to cite. In some cases the numbers are not entirely reliable.
2. Average distance driven per vehicle per year.
As per 1.
3. Average consumption in kWh/100km
I used the median value of 22kWh (equivalent to 153 miles per US gallon according to the US EPA) obtained from 114 test values published by the US DOE.
4. Average capacity factor of the additional electric capacity needed.
The idea of going to EVs is to reduce GHG emissions, so I assumed that the additional capacity would be “new renewables” – dominantly offshore wind and solar PV. After checking various published numbers I estimated an overall capacity factor of 30%.
5. Average cost of additional capacity in $/kW installed
After once more checking a number of capital cost estimates I estimated an overall cost of $3,000 per installed kilowatt.
I could, however, make no estimates for the following items, which could – almost certainly will – significantly increase costs:
6. The grid upgrades, domestic wiring upgrades, charging stations, smart meters etc. needed to distribute the additional electricity and charge/discharge the EVs.
7. EV purchase costs (which would probably have to be subsidized)
The idea underlying the EU legislation is that the EVs will act as storage batteries that can be charged from the grid during periods of low demand and/or high generation and discharged back into the grid during periods of high demand and/or low generation, thereby smoothing out the load curve while making full use of intermittent renewables generation. The estimates assume that this can be done with 100% efficiency, although it certainly won’t turn out that way in practice.
Finally, all costs are given in US dollars.
Now to the results:
110
When you look at Rogers results,…it paints a totally impractical picture….
Germany, for instance needing to install at least 77 GW of new generation to supply the EV demand !!
BUT..he is overlooking one key factor…..that Germany (as with most countries) ….has a huge surplus of installed capacity already. !
From his own figures. ..Germanys 195 GW of installed generation , is only utilised to produce <650,000 GWh per year, an average of 74GW being utilised !
So assuming Rogers figure of 203,000 GWh pa for EVs is correct, that represents just an extra 23 GW of generation.
With NO extra generation facilities added, this combined demand , 97 GW,..is still less than 50% of the CURRENT installed capacity !
Now, obviously , they may want to change some of that capacity from Fossil fuels to RE, but that is a separate decision to the requirements for EV power.
PS… you can do the same analysis for Australia, and you will find there is more than enough generation capacity currently to support a 100% EV conversion demand.
…And again, the same Fossil/RE generation debate will apply !
11
Uh huh. All we need to do is to shut down all industry while we charge our cars. Easy peasy.
The only problem I see is that we don’t have that many aluminium smelters left.
80
That extra capacity in GWh exists because of the difference in peak and off peak demand. The question is how much all EVs will increase peak demand. That is how much more GW you need. But in the US peak occurs in early evening when there is no solar. This makes it really expensive.
Usin the cars as storage is nuts. How would they be usable as cars?
30
The simplistic answer is…
Charge them overnight, then use that storage to flatten the morning Peak .before work, and again in the evening peakafter work.
… The more complex answer is described as “Demand Management” !
01
Charge them overnight using what as the energy source?
You were referring to installed capacity but you’ve just taken out one source by choosing night time. If the wind isn’t blowing there’s another source gone. Wind often calms overnight.
So we’re back to fossil fuels doing the charging so the car doesn’t burn fossil fuels with an ICE.
80
More like this IMO
“The
more complexsimple answer is to“Demand Management” “
10
The article title is ..” How much MORE electricity doe we need for 100%EVs “
.. so whilst i know exactly what your point is, ..i am simply pointing out that the base case is the existing level of grid supply Remains the same.
…..but since you are trying to see into the unknown future, the answer to your question of what energy source for overnight grid supply is …..NUCLEAR !
Because we all know that Wind and Solar are never going to do the job.
Some of you guys need to start thinking “outside the box” around the issues.
EVs are just a trivial sideshow with little relavence to the main problem of a future reliable electricity grid, which is being threatened by the delusional Green/CAGW thinking of the current decision makers.
Even if Wind and Solar were never concieved, EVs would still become a major factor in transport, simply because electric drive has developed to be a superior system for most vehicles…only really limited by battery development and costs….which are improving all the time
Sure , EVs have become a point of leverage for the “Net Zero” movement, but they are not the primary reason for CAGW actions and infact are a negative to that argument whilst the current power generation mix is used.
00
I’m happy to use nuclear but no matter how out of the box I try to think I can’t see a way it will ever be done here in Aus. Our senate will always have a green tinge that will make lifting the nuclear prohibition difficult.
My point about solar and wind was you referred to enough generation capacity already being available. I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that you were referring to the grid’s total capacity. But if you were referring to just the capacity of coal and gas then carry-on.
EV’s have the infrastructure issue to solve. In a big country like Aus with the driving habits of our population, it’s an issue. As well as the vehicle size and vehicle power to match our current fleet.
20
EVs will never penetrate much out of the MLB. SYD, CAN, BRIS corridor with off shoots to the snow fields and beaches. The tyranny of distance RULES elsewhere.
There is a medium fast charge point at the uni near me but it would be a $15 cab fare each way if I didn’t want to sit in the tropical sun while charging. Going south the only high speed charger is in The Valley, Brisbane and I couldn’t get that far on a single tank in my hybrid.
10
1.5 m acres = 6,000 sq km = 1.5% of California area ( 425,000 km^2 )
By comparison, England has 130,000 km^2 or 1/3 the area and 1.5 times the population of California,
Remember that England is at a much higher latitude
The plan in England is to cover 20% of agricultural fields with solar PV panels
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9632831/A-toxic-blot-landscape-Solar-farms-ruining-views-causing-misery-residents.html
43
Years ago, I did a quick check on Professor Will Steffen, Chemist and former Climate Commissioner’s statement that the solar energy which falls on Victoria is enough to power the entire state twice over.
He was right even with the low yield of solar panels. It shows how mad some senior scientists are in the Green machine. It is true if you cover half the state in solar panels. And then do we and the plants and animals live?
And a quick estimate of the cost was in the hundreds of trillions of dollars, but then in a truly socialist Green world you can always raise taxes.
170
On the previous open thread we were discussing cryptocurrencies and according to this guide the tax office regards it as ‘property’ which attracts a capital gains tax. They know who you are.
https://koinly.io/guides/crypto-tax-australia/
85
Fascinating el gordo. No idea why two downvotes have been issued to you unless the subject is pornography to some.
83
They are only bots.
53
Data taken from this website, summarising world electricity production by source for 2020:
World coal: 8735.80TWh, Australia coal:135.1TWh = 0.015% of world production.
World gas: 5892.44TWh, Australia gas:48.13TWh = 0.008% of world production.
World wind: 1590.19 TWh, Australia wind: 24.31 TWh = 0.015% of world production.
World solar: 844.39 TWh, Australia solar: 18.64 TWh = 0.022% of world production.
You have to go to the second decimal point to gauge the physical effect that Australia has on world power generation – which is basically negligible.
I am not advocating inaction, but a rational transition to lower emission technology which includes replacing our old clunker coal-fired power stations with the latest generation as presented by Tony, and waiting for the “new” rechargable technologies to mature.
62
The cost of inaction starts at around 0.0?%.
21
rr
IIRC if it is less than 0.5 you round it down to that
00
Using your figures, Australian coal is 1.5% of World coal, not .015%.
10
they are all the same , did the division but didnt convert to %
00
I’m doing a short series on the future for coal fired power, leading into the latest step up in technology, Advanced UltraSuperCritical (A-USC).
That Series was just going to be an Intro, and then two further Posts, but I have added a third Post to it.
I wanted to explain why China is ramping up its overall power generation, not just from coal fired power, but from all sources.
That ramping up closely follows what happened in the U.S. who considerably ramped up their power generation starting in 1949. Most of that U.S. power generation went to Industry, and it was not until 1993 that Industry’s power consumption fell into second place, overtaken by consumption in the Residential Sector. The vast percentage of that power generation in the U.S. was from coal fired power, and it wasn’t until 2007 that coal fired power started to decline from its more than 50% of that total power generation in the U.S.
And now, China is doing the same thing, increasing power generation at around the same rate. Only now China has the most recent coal fired tech available, and they are using it.
There’s layers upon layers of statistics you can use for comparison, but here I can distil it down to something which makes a case for that increase in China’s power generation.
In the U.S. 38% of all the generated power goes to the residential sector, directly into people’s homes.
In China, 15% of all generated power goes to the residential sector, directly into people’s homes.
I hope you can see the point there. (Here, keep in mind that in Australia we consume (a little) more in our homes than in the average U.S. home)
It isn’t the case that people in China only use a sixth of the power we consume in our homes. It’s just that very few people in China have the access to electricity that we have, and in fact a very large number of people have NO power in their homes at all.
China might be ramping up its power generation, and sending it all to Industry. But that’s exactly what happened in the U.S. and Residential power came along with it.
Link to my Post – Coal Fired Power Dying – Not So Fast – Part Two – Electrical Power Generation In China
Tony.
221
your comments about china are way off https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=CN
just like most of your comments unfortunately
139
Peter, do you understand the concept of negative credibility? I ask because I think almost everything you write gives weight to the opposite view.
241
You need to do something about Peter, Jo. He rebuts Tony with a graph showing a plot that is flattening out – except it’s a plot of percent availability of electricity and flattening at 100%. Its not a measure that can go above 100%. Its not a measure of residential use let alone industrial.
Peter is a retired academic. This is not a mistake but wilful misinformation.
230
Deprived from childhood and the syndrome is worse now as an adult( I presume he is). A look at me type I figure.
51
Well that confirms it then – a retired academic seeking relevance but comes here and is continually rejected because he knows not what he talks about.
131
Tallying our time that we have wasted on him and laughing.
00
The one big thing we need is an ignore option.
40
Peter is a retired academic. This is not a mistake but wilful misinformation.
Peter is a retired [Snip]. This is not a mistake but wilful misinformation. Its the retired part I question.
30
“Peter is a retired academic… “
The mere idea of this guy teaching anyone anything is scary.
60
Try this graph https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC?view=chart&locations=CN
01
Fitrzroy, I know that my graph from the same source as yours ends in 2014 but do you really believe that a fast rising per capita electricity use curve actually plateaus and drops such as that exhibited by China actually represents residential usage. It would suggest that residential consumption keeps pace withindustrial growth and both plateau and and decline at the same time through saturation in usage?
Has the growth in car ownership also plateaud?
Its important to know these sort of things because power generation tends to lag power demand. Albeit the Chinese have been known to go overboard in development, its just not possible to replace base with renewable unless provision is made to take up the slack during generation doldrums in rhe order of days to weeks.
China claims 10 more years for peak coal usage.Thst is a reasonable lead in time to start building nuclear and hydroelectric reactors to replace the coal fired equivalents.
Of course all this assumes that consumer and industrial power demands also dont increase in the coming decade. American and European power usage has dropped because energy intensive activity has been offdshored. Individual power consumptionsuch as patio heaters, A/c heating, swimming pool heaters has increased. people are buying big SUvS because engegy is more and efficient and cheaper. People travel distances for vacation because energy usage/costs for flying has dropped relative tomthe cost of other things. More efficient light ulbs lead to brighter homes and vastly more streetlights. More efficient computers lead to vastly more computations and data farms.
Are younusing your Tesla to drive or to heat and cool you in comfort while you sot in traffic? Some ICE cars are so efficient they have difficulty generating sufficient wste heat to,function in Canadian winters
Are the Chinese going to cut back on their computqtional energy usage as well?
Power is a valuable commodity. Producing more usually means using more. Producing less tends to mean doing less as in an aging population or having the grunt work done elsewhere. Decommisioning base generation with equivalent base generation replacement is fool hardy and recless in the extreme. There will be extended periods when the wind doesnt blow and the sun doesnt shine brightly. No plasuibly realistic battery can span such gaps. The power grid and populace will have to lump the blackout
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Your link proves nothing PF. What I don’t understand is how someone can be wrong so often and still keep commenting.
60
An entry in The Guiness Book of Records?
20
Easy when you suspend reality and insert your own version
Remember the poorly labelled “progressives” / liberals always occupy the high moral and intellectual ground in their own minds.
20
Sometimes Peter Fitzroy, I just can’t figure you out.
I quote and use actual data, and you think I make it up.
Those figures for power consumption for the US and for China are taken directly from the end of 2020 data from both Countries.
This is simple Maths here Peter Fitzroy.
The average Australian home consumes 16.75KWH of power a day, and it’s a little less in the U.S. and that’s the proportion of actual generated power going to the Residential Sector.
In China, they consume one sixth of that power in the Residential Sector, in other words in people’s homes, as per the data for China I quoted.
Using that data, then that’s 2.8KWH of power on average per home, and if you can run a home on 2.8KWH a day from grid supplied power, then you need to inform the public how you do it.
2.8KWH a day is only a little bit more than an average refrigerator consumes.
The metric for availability of power in homes is arbitrary at least. How much power? Is it 100% available all the time. Does it meet the full household needs.
The actual data tells more of the story than anything else.
And why must you always intimate that I make all this up. You knock everything just for the sake of knocking it, and even when patiently corrected, you still persist. Says more about you than me, I’m afraid.
Tony.
410
Tony,
Fitzy doesn’t care.
Remember the old saying, “Never argue (or try to reason)
with an idiot. He’ll drag you down to his level and beat you
with experience.”
QED
150
Meanwhile, Peter is going about flinging mud (or something rather less savory) trying to obscure the failings of renewables.
It’s his standard approach for maintaining the narrative
40
Tony: Illegitimi non carborundum. Not worth the effort.
Keep fighting the logical fight. Idiots won’t understand you, ideologues won’t revere you, politicos will ignore you, but after all, you were always correct.
It is always a Great Day to be correct. 24/7, 365, Tony is more correct than my Cesium time based watch.
110
Tony, Fitzroy is simply trolling you and everyone else on this site. The more attention his trolling generates, the stronger will be his compulsion to troll.
100
badgering about little irrelevant flaws is all they have left. it has been at least a decade since i have seen a comment of substance from the pro renewable / catastrophic AGW group.
it is actually their modus operandi, even the UN do this and have done since AGW come about. they have been trolling real science on a grand scale. but when you take a closer look at it, it is clear in any political scenario. the left tend to be great at attacking, humiliating and denigrating the right side of politics, but when they win power, they just do not know what to do. it is like hitting the pause button on development and just spend to attempt to force reality to adjust to their imaginary world, and when it doesnt work (which it never could have) they just blame/project then lose.
with AGW and now renewables, we are in the win power part of that cycle still, and will be forced to endure the pause for some time yet, but on the plus side, they will necessarily lose. lets just hope there isnt too much damage done by then.
60
For all NSW residents, here’s a vomit-worthy vid by Matt Kean, our LINO “Liberal” lefty, Green zealot and Energy Minister telling us how lucky we are to have had him forced upon us by the Photios faction for 10 years now. Party at Matt’s place. Break out the champers and the organic lentil fairy bread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnIR49ommag&t=9s
Kean is pushing for all manner of Green lunacy including the SA-NSW interconnector and taxpayer funded transmission lines to remote wind and solar money pits to make them “viable”. Last year Matt stated that it was an outrage that many potential solar eyesores were not being built even with subsidies, because there was no power transmission infrastructure from Timbuktu or wherever they were to be sited, so therefore the taxpayer should foot the bill.
And then there are his other plans for “climate action” and even more overgrown, feral, fire-starter national parks. Our hero.
160
‘But the reality is NSW and Victoria have, in effect, dumped the AEMC’s power to approve transmission investments that facilitate better access to the grid for renewables.
‘NSW Energy Minister Matt Kean and Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio clearly believe the regulatory system is broken.’ (Fin Review)
30
I wonder why some people (but not Peter Phitzroy) call him Mad Matt?
30
I used to think Lily was a hopeless waste of space , then I saw Kean in action. Lily may have hope yet.
10
I’ve got a rather fundamental question. How much of what is happening is actually Real and how much is Illusion?
It appears that the outputs of “Models” drive the entire CAGW narrative. Nothing they portend is Real.
Models are not evidence. Everything the Models predict over the last 50 years is denied by History and Fact.
Renewable Energy isn’t. It requires more raw materials than actually exist, it isn’t economical without taxpayer subsidies, it isn’t recyclable, it cannot meet actual grid loads, it isn’t available when needed.
Hydrogen isn’t an answer. It takes more energy to produce, store, transport and use, H2 than it contains. Hydrogen requires 60% to 200% more energy than the Hydrogen contains.
Hydropower isn’t an answer. There are not enough sites in existence to provide more than an irrelevant fraction of the energy required for grid scale. Yes they help, but they do not replace coal, NG, or Nuclear.
Pumped hydro is an illusion at grid scale. Perhaps 20% efficient overall. Practically useless.
Greens talk a great show of illusions. They do not address reality, thermodynamics, economics, availability, reliability, dispatchability, or stability. Their entire platform is unreliable, un economical, irrelevant, and incompetent.
Perhaps I’ve missed something. If so, please educate me in that.
180
“Pumped hydro is an illusion at grid scale. Perhaps 20% efficient overall. Practically useless.”
Have we finally achieved perpetual motion or is your understanding of reality screwed up.
21
Yes , agreed, i would like to see how Lance comes to that 20% figure for pumped hydro. .
00
Ok.
Hydro Turbine efficiency: 0.9
Generator efficiency: O.92
Pump efficiency: O.85
Motor efficiency driving pump: 0.85
Friction losses in piping and valving : 0.2 or (.8 efficiency)
Well, thus far, it is about 0.53 efficiency. Assuming the energy is free.
If it is Solar powered, it is .2 capacity factor so overall 0.106 efficient at pumped hydro energy, if wind powered, .3 CF so 0.16 efficient, if thermal powered 0.9 CF x .5 thermal efficiency from the original energy input into the system
If they all provide 1/3 of the energy, then the average is 24% total efficiency. Ok. I’m off a bit.
If it isn’t pumped hydro, it is a “once through system” and isn’t anything more than a topping plant. Hydro is intermittent by nature, unless the reservoir is infinite.
Pumped hydro is only relevant insofar as it can be replenished, and that is only by pumping the water back uphill.
Something has to do it. It isn’t free.
120
Lance, you should not just “guess” or do crude estimates and generalisations for what is a well understood and established technology.
There are many detailed studies of actual operating PH systems, such that the performance and efficiencies factors are documented.
Overall ..roundtrip efficiency …MW input vs MW output , PH is rarely less than 70%, and not uncommon to be above 80%
EG.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352152X20300323
Also, you must think we are nieve to swallow your throwing in the efficiency/CF of the source generation !……that has no relevance to the performance of PH.
…And why are you wanting to suggest PH storage is a ill concieved idea ?
It is a valid and valuable technology in any large scale utility grid, no matter what the primary generation source is…infact it is most suited to Fossil and Nuclear based supply systems to optimise the efficiency of those generators.
30
There’s nothing wrong with PH … as long as you have substantial reserves of Magic.
31
Ok chad. Perhaps you missed the part about efficiency based upon original energy input.
Pumped hydro, if using utility power and not accounting for primary energy input, is 70% to 85% efficient, not the 90% you claim. An average of 0.775.
See: https://arena.gov.au/assets/2017/02/kidston-pumped-storage-hydro-project.pdf
A HELE coal plant is about 45% thermally efficient compared to the energy in the coal at inception.
See: https://www.iea.org/reports/technology-roadmap-high-efficiency-low-emissions-coal-fired-power-generation
So, if the pumped hydro ran solely on coal fired electrical power, it would have a maximum overall efficiency of 34.8% conversion efficiency. (.775 x .45 = .348)compared to original input energy.
If the overall efficiency of solar (20% capacity factor) and wind (30% capacity factor) are averaged with the 45% HELE efficiency, assuming the solar and wind conversions are 100% efficient, you get an overall grid efficiency of 31.6% compared to the original energy input. Assuming they each comprise 1/3 of sources.
So, the Pumped Hydro is 0.775 x 0.31 = 0.245 overall efficiency as compared to the input power.
If I’ve made a mistake here, please point me to the proper direction.
00
Lance ,…you seem to have some issues here ..
1) i never claimed PHydro had a 90% efficiency .
………where did you dream that up ?
And why do you persist with lumping the primary generation efficiency into you calc’s for Pumped hydro efficiency ?
…….you know that is BS, just to try to justify your original mistake.
If you are going to debate effectively for a sensible power supply….you need to be honest with your facts.
10
I am comparing the energy to pump the same volume of water back up the hill then is generated from running it down hill, closed system.
That’s 20 – 30% more energy required for the uphill bit then gained from the down hill bit.
The energy required for the return leg comes from the grid, which is and always will be fossil fuel based. As is with Snowy one, pumped up hill at night off peak and on coal. You can’t split the energy sources, you can’t produce more energy from less, which was my interpretation from your original comment.
The efficiency is negative, consumed v generated from the closed system, its a consumer not a generator.
Friction losses of piping (.2), how did you get the head height, diameter, length and flow rate to come to that .2?
Its a very poor battery at best and batteries don’t make power, after all we are talking about replacing fossil fuels with this tripe
30
Provided. I’m off a bit from my claim but not enough to make the claim irrelevant.
41
Your statement is illogical, as is the question. Provide context. Otherwise, irrelevant.
11
Lance hits the nail on the head here.
What he writes about permeates through the whole of society.
Politics is just a part of it, but a big part of it.
Every side of politics, the right, the left, and all distances in either direction for both sides, well they all fall in with
‘groupthink’‘wrongthink’ because that’s where the votes are. (and perhaps all they are thinking of is re-election, both at a personal level, and at a party level, and at a Governmental level) So it’s a case of ‘don’t rock the boat’, no matter what you think.I have what I think is a level of expertise in my subject of choice, and I see that nobody, in ANY area of politics takes advice on the subject, and here, I have no illusions at all that I would have any influence at all, or that they should even contemplate taking advice from lowly tiny little me. If that advice was actively sought from experts in each field, different decisions would be made, and different directions would be taken, and from that, an effort would be made to inform the populace as to why they did what they did.
So now, I can see what all sides of politics are doing with respect to my subject of choice, I think to myself that if they are so wrong on that ONE particular subject, then they are most probably incorrect on EVERY other subject, no matter what it might be.
And this ALL of politics, right, left, Labor, Liberal, Conservative or (small l) liberal, Socialist, Green, far left, far right, whatever.
It’s also all of the media, all of academia, all of education, in fact all of society, everyone and everywhere just caves in on every subject.
I sit and think ….. why would he or she not get advice on this, seek out information, get to the truth of the matter?
Lance, we’re pushing $hit uphill with a toothpick.
We have no chance whatsoever of making these people see, because frankly, they don’t want to see.
Any subject at all, not just my field of electrical power generation. EVERYTHING.
Tony.
221
I agree but the wonderful thing about technology is that it might eventually overcome such obstacles.
People forget that fossil fuel power generation is a wonderful thing. Being able to extract and alter energy from it’s compact form has been the heart of industry and civilization.
Building renewables and alternate energy storage devices is an opportuity to augment and improve on the coal fired heart of a power plant. That means improving on something good with something better. Almost from the outset it means producing more power generation and storage overall
Remember nuclear powered ships. A good idea but perhaps not better for most applications than oil powered ships for surface ships.
014
Um. No.
That is just a bunch of worthless sophistry. Try building the airplane whilst flying it and see what the chances of survival actually are.
The wonderful thing about Engineering is that it accounts for what actually exists, not what someone fantasizes in the future, although that can be done with sufficient modeling for probability.
Evidently, “Resource Constrained” doesn’t play into your vision of renewable energy. Try making batteries without lithium, or magnets without cobalt, samarium, neodymium, etc. People forget that resources are not infinite.
The entire world reserves of silver would not produce enough solar panels for 1/6 of the US alone requirements for grid replacement. There isn’t enough lithium in the world for the batteries for total EV replacement of vehicles. Not even 10% of them.
Remember: Nuclear powered ships can sail for 50 years on a single fueling. I haven’t seen any solar or wind powered aircraft carriers or container cargo ships, have you?
160
Moore’s Law is a description of the year over year improvement in integrated circuit functionality.
Renewable generation and storage devices demonstrate striking year over year improvements over many years. It is reasonable to extrapolate from such that improvemts will continue for at least a few years
00
only reasonable if you can show some basis for the expectation, otherwise its just an assumption /guess. Mechanical and chemical systems hit limits pretty quickly.
00
Yes, and power generation is such a well established industry with 100+years of engineering development and understanding to base decisions on…..
…..so its easy to be doubtful as to the competance of out leaders and decision makers , when it comes to something as complex as the management of a Corona Virus outbreak !
Personally i have severe reservations regarding the interlectual and “Political” abilities of our government and other world leaders (Biden ?).
Most of them are just power seekers with an ability to talk themselves ito elected positions….not necessarily for any outstanding or proven skills relevent to the position .
30
We are pushing sh@t uphill with a toothpick only because the mass majority do not understand one tenth of what you know.
A proper grid is energy when you need it and when you don’t. It is there. 24/7, 365. It serves you. That’s the difference between modern society and slave society. In a free society the grid serves you. In a slave society, you serve the grid.
Energy is not free. It takes technology to make energy possible, and engineering to make it practical and affordable.
Turning wind/solar/wave/geothermal energy into practical, grid scale, energy, is no small feat.
Only a stable grid is worth having. Without stable power, there is no social, economic, food relevant, transportation or information relevant, world.
Energy Instability is the enemy of health, wealth, social cohesion, absence of war, or other ills.
Instead of asking what wonders we ought forego to reach equity with those who are energy underprivileged, we ought ask what it takes to bring the wonders of energy to every person on earth and why it hasn’t already been done.
It isn’t a question of energy scarcity. It is a question of how to share energy stability and availability with everyone who needs energy, including what we know about the environment, safety, and economics.
Energy is what frees people from bondage. Along with property rights, etc. But Energy will be a good start.
80
What could possibly go wrong with weather dependent power stations? They are there for immediate use whenever the weather gods smile on us, usually when we sacrifice large quantities of money to please them.
20
Interesting question. Remember the promise of “living better ellectrically” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ1_KjEQgo4
Funny how it never turned out that way. Electric baseboard heaters, water tanks, stoves, lawn mowers and such were always less powerful and often more expensive to run than their hydrocarbon counterparts. Since way back when the ekectric grid haa been challenged as everyone rushes to turn on their stoves, a/c heating, hot bath water and such. This difficulty in keeping up with surge calacity from underpowered electric appliances goes back 30 -50 years in my own personal experience. By moving to gas and hydrocarbons we as a society reduced the worry about such demand surges
Okay so now there is a push for renewabless. Yes its progress and yes home batteries will be both practical and large enough to span beyond the 24 hr solar charge/discharge cycle.
But then it comes down to delivering much more electricity through the grid to heavy usage offloaded power consumers such as automobiles, hot water heaters, home heating, a/c and refrigeration.
Here is a rosy prediction for the explosive griwth in EVs https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57253947
Yeah it will happen in the short term but will rapidly choke itself off because of the huge increase in demand to charge these cars at home or on the road. Fossil fuel is the ideal compact power storage mechanism fior occasional vehicular transport.
Imagine fighting for or paying the surcharge for a speedy charge when 30% of the vehiclesnare electried. Sort of we will charge your EV in 20 min but you will pay us 3 times the going rate for the convenience, type of thing. The sky will be the limit for the convenience of a speedy crecharge. High penetration of EVs will kill of the desireability of the electric fuel..
20% of those who own EVs are already switching bach to fossil because of frustration with recharge. Wait until there are a few times more EV cars on the road https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ev-owners-switch-gas-power-study/
So yes renewables can replace fossil soucres but only in the dynamivc occasional sense. The will always be the need for the full baseload capacity to bridge periods of becalment and contnental wide overcast/seasonality
Moreover the massive shift in cars, cooking, heating and industry from fossil to electric will require much more electric power generation and its correoonding fossil based backup. Batteries cannot span base load backup spanning weeks to months
All this ignores the costs and resources involved in making servicing and replacing renewable
23
AGW Falsified.
‘This fundamental failure of cause-effect experimental evidence “invalidates” claims CO2 is a key climate forcing agent. Therefore, as Dr. Richet urges, “one should then reject the Arrhenian paradigm” because a “cardinal rule in science is to reject a hypothesis that clearly contradicts the experimental findings it is supposed to account for”. (Notrickszone)
71
finally. We can all get on with our lives now.
45
My bad, I had a close look at the paper and they still believe CO2 causes warming.
31
If you want to reduce Co2 then you can grow and bury trees. Its even more unglamorous than digging coal from a pit but its the same process in reverse and natural
The thing about dynamic renewables and their storage backups is that it gets energy at less cost than burning dense compact fuel. The renewable circuit is preffered because in costs less. If it doesnt cost less and you are concerned about Co2 then you might as well take the subsidy and pay to farm and bury trees. It amounts to a reduction in emissions
The technology for dynamic renewables is improving to the point that they might cost less at some scale of implementation and rollout. Yet their dynamic nature means that they run the risk of collapsing in output. Traditional dense fuel methods must be held in reserve as a backstop
12
We maybe at cross purposes.
https://notrickszone.com/2021/05/31/new-study-burden-of-proof-is-on-agw-proponents-as-ice-cores-invalidate-co2-driven-climate-change/
11
I try to stay away from the science because the field of climate change is populated by a lynch mob of zealots who strike down any effort to question educated dogma
Yes I have heard the fact that rising temperature leads to decreased aqueous Co2 solubilty. Thus the quandry as to Co2 levels leading or lagging temperature levels
I chose to focus on the mistaken belief held by enviromentalists of misanthropy.
Humans are part of nature. We are of sufficiently importantbiological investment that what we do transforms the surfwce of this planet,like it or lump it. The notion that we must have zero footprint and leave all else untouched simply disrespects that humans are like a huge biological elephant that influences and disrupts much of what we touch.
The misanthropy is in denying our elephantine quality
We we never get to NET ZERO with an attitude that is tatamount to saying that having a biological footprint is evil and unforgivable.
Yet we can go beyond to less than NET ZERO by viewing the steam engine as a worthwhile productive achievement while seeking out more worthwhile and efficient alternatives. If comes to that we could easily sequester more carbon than we emit, we could throw up a sunshade in space.We could do so many consequential things
To take the simplistic approach that everything we do of net influence is evil and must be suppresed will lead us to catastrophe. It is truly self loathing, lacking humility or respect for humanity
Humans are a big deal on this planet. That is just how it is and it is an inherently good thing. No good comes from cowering in the fact that we change the world around us. Its not concieit to be top dog. It is wrong to run away from carrying that responsibilty
21
‘I try to stay away from the science …’
That is unfortunate, you are missing climate change and the CO2 starvation angle. We need more coal fired power stations.
‘The level of atmospheric CO2 has fallen steadily from about 2,500 ppmv to the current level of less than 400 ppmv, perilously close to the 150 ppmv level that spells the death of plants.’
41
Have to ask how Co2 bcame a trace gas in the first place. Its almost as if over the long time scales, CO2 is being scavanged to ever diminishing quantities. I dont think we appreciate the factors that drive CO2 and those other factors which enrich the atmosphere in the face of persistent decline.
Another thing is that the soil + vegegation contain roughly the same amount of carbon as the atmosphere. The salient physics involves transitions (wind and boundary layer disruption):latereral to the surface/atmosphere and trooposphere/stratosphere interface.
Thus the poleward and latitudinal fluxes of heat or co2 are of more consequence than vertical transport. thats becuse its all about crossing the boundary layers and that involves flow parallel and otherwise. Heck, just look at how complicated transport becomes across cell membranes. Way more than just lateral versus tranverse flow
Think of an atmospheric convection cell. Its more about the activity that takes place between the earth surface and the activity that crosses over at the top of the comvection cell and not the upward downward flow of air. The heat transfer occurs throuhg the lateral flow. No lateral flow and you just have the heat gradient
Doesnt take much to influence the flux across the various boundariy interfaces and that is crucial stuff. Vegetation miosture fertilizer temperature .. there things can vastly alter the amount of carbon tsnsportrd up or down across the ground-atmosphere interface
The vertical atmostphec structure of a forest from its floor to leaf canopy top is a complex beast which has influence. I am not going to speculate as to which way that goes because I have no clue
The structure of a leaf is a master of boundary layerengineering designed to maximiize Co2 scavanging while preventing water loss
Plants have a vested interetest in keeping Co2 levels up from the ever diminishing atmospheric scavange. Whether such capture-and-hold carbon activity by vegetation is wishfull subjective speculation or an actuality is another matter.
Whatever else there is more involved than radiative physcis and fluid dynamics when biological process gets involved.
I want no part of science when even mild curious inquiry is greeted with severe academic bullying for daring to challenge the predominant opinion.
Bullying by proponents of ideas has always been there in science. With climate change moralizing of ‘existential threat’ it has become vicous and insufferable.
10
Get on to this mob and let them know they are doing it the wrong way round.
https://www.drax.com/contact-us/
10
Hmm?… I dont think its quite that simple.
Burried trees tend to decay rather quickly..probably better to harvest them for building with.
?? . So where did this term “dynamic renewables”….. come from suddenly ?
“Unstable” or “unpredictable”, or “intermittent” ….are much better descriptors.
And the unsubsidised cost of RE electricity , with storage and backup, is NOT less than fossil fueled generation. !
10
when measured by Satellite CO2 levels over barren parts of Australia was far lower than the lush Amazon. Combining that with research showing trees emit methane and the calculated response would be that the Amazon creates 4 times more methane than the entirety of the animal foods industry we could simply cut out the growing trees bit and bury them underground instead right?
11
Nope some new fear porn is on its way be here any time soon to keep the sheeple huddled together in the paddock
31
did Sellin and Yan crack the origin of Sars 2?
https://balance10.blogspot.com/2021/05/did-sellin-and-yan-crack-origin-of-sars.html5-31-21
01
Have you seen Tony Heller’s latest videos? He is on a roll after he returned to YouTube after his enforced holiday for telling the truth.
He points out that the US climate fraud has become far worse under President Imposter Biden and NOAA has changed their fraud algorthim. They are no longer even trying to disguise the fraud by subtle changes, it is now “full on”.
See https://youtu.be/vnmzOeG_N64
The video appears to be not yet on his preferred non-Leftist non-censored NewTube channel.
51
As the Newcastle song has it “Don’t you ever let a chance go by”
“Myanmar, Flynn, and Suddenly I Care about Burma”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2021/06/01/myanmar-flynn-and-suddenly-i-care-about-burma/
10
Australia ought be more concerned with what is good for Australia than what others think.
70
True, but people bomabarded with the lefty PC talking points:
– we are falling behind! ( behind who? by what measure?)
– we will become a pariah in tge international community (really? who decides that? )
– we need to do our bit (who is doing more? Where do we actually rank? )
– Australia is Racist (are we really? How many ethicities are tgere in OZ , how many serious race based problems do we ever have? open your eyes walking around any shopping centre ffs)
–
10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0U7u18bsKA
10
Biden Imported Oil from Iran in March – First Time Since 1991- Ignoring US Law to Please Terrorist Country (Gateway Pundit)
So lets recap
1, China and Iran were key figures in the stolen USA election
2, Biden halts Keystone pipeline thus requiring USA to import oil
3, Biden muses removing sanctions from Iran and now buys oil in defiance of US sanctions
4, Biden begins sending 200 million dollars in aid to Palestine after Trump halted payments as he believed they were used by Hamas to attack Israel
5, US warships intercept Iran ship bound for Gaza and seize very large cache of weapons and munitions
6, Hamas attacks Israel, Biden demands an end to fighting Israel tells US to GFY
7, Israel opposition parties now forming an alliance to oust Netanyahu
Regime change in Israel will not end well
40
that was seized oil right?
15
You need to keep up if you want a seat at the table GA
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/10/navy-arabian-sea-weapons-seizure/
21
It would of been the lack of oil that seized it.
31
The link between cancelling Keystone and short term omport needs is tenuous putting it mildly.
Keystone had a much longer timeline and did not affect short term supplies.
00
I read Warren Buffet and friends have a very large stake in the Iranian pipeline. Is Joe one of those friends?.
10
IIRC his rail transport of oil would be bent by Keystone
And he wouldn’t be in wind farms if it wasn’t for the subsidies
10
I want to make a comment here on the availability of information.
Having worked in the electrical engineering area, the learning of all things electrical, then as a tradesman doing the work, as supervisor/Man manager, then teaching the electrical trade, and then administering the teaching and examination of that trade, all of that in my 25 years in the RAAF, I thought I had a reasonable ‘handle’ on things, and in fact, probably the most I actually learned was in the teaching part of it all.
When I started doing what I do now back in March of 2008, I used that knowledge base to help me with that.
I already had access to the Internet, dating back to 1999, but until I started doing all this, there was not much I used the Internet for, perhaps just what the average person might use it for.
I found that while I thought I did have a good handle on all things electrical, I was really only at the bottom end.
I chased up information, to back up what I was writing about, and while there was a plethora of ‘opinion’ out there, there was actually more information than I thought there would be, and all I needed was the correct thing to write into the search engine.
When I found what I wanted, I very quickly used the Bookmark this page function of my (Firefox) browser.
Next came separate folders to house the related information, and then sub folders in that.
Links came and went, and eventually got deleted.
Even so, just in my Electrical Folder alone now, I have ten separate sub folders, and all up, I have 225 bookmarked links, jut in that Electrical Folder alone.
If I need information, I can find it in minutes.
That’s what led to this latest Series about the future for coal fired powerwhen everyone else is predicting its demise, and nothing could be further from the truth.
I revisited one of those old links looking for information and found that it had been changed. So I scanned it, and went back to it when I had time. And therein lies the root of what I do.
Each day, I would spend at least two hours chasing information, other than the Blog admin, the Daily Posts, and comments I leave, mainly here. Sometimes I spend well more than those two hours.
Links lead to information, and that leads to new things to put into the search engine, and so on.
So much so, that just chasing up information on generators at that site I mentioned above led to around ten or more separate new things to look at. Some were ‘rubbish’, some are commentary, (opinion) and some are good information.
So, now I’m sitting here thinking that this availability of ….. so much ….. information has only become available in recent years.
It’s almost to the point now that I see something new every day.
I look back on my learning, and then doing, and then teaching, and ALL of that was literally a drop in the ocean. All it did do was give me the knowledge to understand what I am now looking at on that daily basis.
90% of the population use the Internet for facebook etc.
It’s (the Internet, not facebook) actually doing what it was originally supposed to do, supply information to advance knowledge.
I would not even begin to say that I know everything, because I’m still learning, and really, you can NEVER stop learning.
Tony.
241
That’s why quality sources such as yours are so valuable Tony.
81
I would like to draw attention to this comment I posted under the preceding “Medical Scandal” thread:
Michael, you say on page three:
First: Hydroxychloroquine + zinc treatment + Anthramycin.
Do you not mean Azithromycin?
I’m sceptical that Anthramycin is of the same chemical structure.
None of the references that I’ve studied say Anthramycin.
Have you a link to where Anthramycin is recommended?
https://joannenova.com.au/2021/05/its-the-biggest-medical-scandal-since-1850-even-the-us-president-had-to-be-treated-in-secret/#comment-2431364
I do so because I think Michael has referenced the wrong pharmaceutical.
12
Ice cores reveal that it was very fiery in the Southern Hemisphere before the Industrial Revolution. Fire stick men blamed.
‘To account for these levels of smoke, the researchers ran computer simulations that account for both wildfires and the burning practices of indigenous people.
“The computer simulations of fire show that the atmosphere of the Southern Hemisphere could have been very smoky in the century before the Industrial Revolution. Soot concentrations in the atmosphere were up to four times greater than previous studies suggested. Most of this was caused by widespread and regular burning practiced by indigenous peoples in the pre-colonial period,” said Jed Kaplan, Associate Professor at the University of Hong Kong and co-author of the study.’ (WUWT)
52
The important words here are ‘indigenous’ and ‘pre-colonial’.
Everyone was indigenous and until they decided to colonize.
Sometimes you have to colonize because you got colonized.
Unfortunate, really.
Decarbonization is the only just penance for colonization.
Just visualize a pre-industrial society but with Wi-Fi.
And way better tattoo technology.
I identify as indigenous.
But I’m not BIPOC.
So I am Binary.
20
Interesting, John R Smith.
My I ask; indigenous but not “Indigenous” as per the BIPOC assumption?
How does that work?
Does it mean that you consider that you have not been severely impacted by systemic racial injustices. Hence you identify as indigenous but not BIPOC?
Where’s the Binary?
00
Just making fun of politically correct language.
Been impacted by lots of injustice, mostly economic.
Binary in identification with two.
There is systemic injustice in my country, US, against people that look like me and that like girls.
I confess to difficulty in having a serious discussion about absurd things.
20
Talking if absurd things:
Hawaii has closed its last coal-fired power station and replaced it with a battery, supplied by a petrol powered generator.
40
I’m sure it will be powered by hula dancing in the near future.
20
Warm winter outlook for Australia.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary/
31
No fooling those BOM folk. And I bet they didn’t even use a calendar.
71
They rely on Tim Flannery!
Tim has been awarded the Geddes Medal by the Royal Scottish Geographical Society for “climate work”.
The previous recipient was Greta Thunberg.
61
31 May, 2021: INTENSE COLD GRIPS SE AUSTRALIA, TOPPLES MULTIPLE MONTHLY COLD RECORDS + POWERFUL ANTARCTIC BLAST TO HIT NEXT WEEK
“According to the latest GFS runs (shown below), frigid Antarctic air will ride anomalously-far north beginning Friday, June 4 which, by June 9, will be delivering temperature departures some 20C below the seasonal average to the majority of Australians”
https://electroverse.net/intense-cold-grips-australia/
21
The BoM seems blissfully unaware that this Antarctic blast is going to happen, apart from a dusting of snow on the granite belt.
Looking ahead they are putting a lot of weight on warm nights saving the AGW meme.
‘The Bureau’s senior climatologist, Lynette Bettio, said the winter climate outlook showed night-time temperatures would be warmer than average for the majority of the country.’ (Oz)
41
Wot?! Our -5C temp. on the 31st May meant the month went out with a literally freezing flourish, after several other mins. of -4C, -3C and a couple of -1C. Warmer nights?
20
This is where global warming zealotry falls on its face, their seasonal models are flawed, blocking high pressure creates frigid nights and warm days.
20
A while ago Jo showed a BOM seasonal forecast side by side with the same seasons actuals. They were effectively mirror image , 100% wrong. IIRC it was around flooding in FNQ that triggered a conversation.
20
On the other side of the world there is a chill in the air.
https://notrickszone.com/2021/06/01/germanys-dwd-may-2021-among-coldest-in-140-years-spring-2021-clearly-too-cool/
20
Interesting that they have an average temperature for qLD. They expect light snow for the Granite Belt next week. We’re running below average for the past 6 months.
41
Across the ditch, NIWA and Met Service didn’t see a one in a hundred year flood turning up.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=6726
21
‘As other Western democracies in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network turn their gaze towards China, its smallest member has broken ranks.
‘New Zealand – part of the post-war alliance with the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia – has been openly reluctant to embrace the bloc’s pivoting security focus to Beijing, as tensions over trade, technology and ideology have strained relations between China and the West.
‘Wellington has faced a backlash for distancing itself from the Five Eyes when it comes to China, including signing some but not all of their joint statements on Beijing’s political crackdown in Hong Kong.’ (SCMP)
20
Google is pushing The Conversation and Crikey onto me, why would that be?
Any link between these two news site of note?
10
No, None.
Except:
They’re both green left woke delusionals, which think people have to be made to stop thinking for themselves.
Otherwise, they’re fine upstanding members of the free world that spend their time supporting the free democratic market driven economies of the West. You know – the economies that make the tripe they publish possible.
41
Stop using Google, try Duckduckgo.
50
Aunty Pravda’s rolling news feed of unacceptable articles for the 1st June – https://thepointman.wordpress.com/rolling-headlines/
Pointman
20
Amazing collation of news, Pointy.
Very entertaining.
10
Please, won’t somebody think of the children?
China Says It Will Allow Couples to Have 3 Children, Up From 2
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html?smid=tw-share
Miley Cyrus Says She Doesn’t Want Kids Because ‘the Earth Can’t Handle It’
https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/miley-cyrus-says-she-doesnt-want-kids-because-the-earth-cant-handle-it.html/
… and the decline of the west continues with green stupidity.
50
She was vegan until ‘she did it wrong’. In other words after a short while her health started to critically fail. People who are quite unhealthy should certainly not have children until they get better, especially better nutrition than on a fasting mimicking diet like a vegan diet.
She also celebrated abortion up until birth I think so she is pretty anti-human as it is.
10
saw a meme the other day
its was a photo of a new born baby being held in a pair of hands
the text said ” Just to be clear , this is a still a point where Democrats think abortion is OK “
20
Possibly another new virus discovered in China .
https://www.theepochtimes.com/possible-1st-human-case-of-h10n3-bird-flu-reported-in-china_3839814.html?fbclid=IwAR1gHfHKrH3TxqQDOw0KlKI5toW4ao2N1Hfu7jCXdrfOzXCtfjeE3LAW1lQ
20
Amazing how all these viruses come out of Chyna and at an increasing rate.
10
They have a lot of labs
20
To be fair they also have lots of bats, or maybe they just come in contact with them more. I’ve lived in the north most of my life but I have never handled a bat.
I worked with Vic Rail’s brother, he was [I think] the first victim of Hendra Virus, caught it from his horses which caught it from flying foxes. High fatality rate and those who survive need a lot of TLC.
10
51,000 odd tests and 6 new cases, this is the same double mutant booga booga strain “ravishing” India right now is it not? So far we have faced the SAF strain, the UK strain and now the Indian strain and kicked its bottom.
There is something very fishy going on here.
41
you might need to elaborate.
20
No i dont, if you cant understand what i am saying then there is no hope for you
20
What is fishy about it. And no I don’t understand it. Accepting that there is no hope for me, I’d still like to know.
20
You do know i take no pleasure from showing you the error of your ways.
To understand the fish we must first go back to where it all began.
A Victorian man was quarantining in a SA motel (AKA the Wollert man), despite testing negative after 14 days and then catching a plane to Vic and travelling around Victoria for at least a week he tested positive.
It was believed he became infectious in SA quarantine because he opened his door at the same time as the person across the hall who was in fact infectious. They believe both doors were open for just a few seconds however the Indian booga booga strain is so infectious this is all it took.
Despite the infectious nature of this strain the man managed to not infect anyone else in SA whilst in the hotel nor whilst travelling to the airport.
At some point he must have passed the virus on to someone else in VIC and hence the small rise in cases we now see.
Now that you have been caught up on things lets compare the pair, This exact same strain meant India where registering 400K new cases a day and tens of thousands of deaths a day, the deaths where so high they ran out of wood to cremate the bodies.
Here in Australia after weeks of the virus circulating throughout Victoria we just today tested 51K people and found 6…yes SIX positive cases over the passed 5 days over 300K people would have been tested and we have about 50 cases with one 70 odd year old in hospital.
There is something wrong here so what could it be?
Possible solutions:
1, Indians in general are not as healthy as Australians due to a life time of dealing with TB, dysentery? etc
2, Indian lack of fresh fruit and vegetables in their daily diets?
3, Australians have a far more robust immune system? (see above)
4, Australians have a greater level of Vit D in their systems?
5, Australians are genetically superior in some way?
The same can be said for the SAF and UK strains, especially the UK strain which decimated England but did nothing here. Obviously no matter what strain gets into the aged care homes some people will die due to a weakened (through age) immune system.
To the sane, impartial observer there is something fishy going on.
30
First dose of the vaccine has been reported to be only 33% effective against the Indian(Delta) variant.
In Ontario we are sticking to a gradual reopening from lockdown over the course of the summer. Its not stated as such but I believe our slow reopening is because of this lack of vaccine effectiveness and also the greater virulence of the Delta variant. The Delta variant is increasing in prevelance here
I think it is prudent because it might just help avoid a 4th wave. people are getting fed up with this pandemic
China has recently (past week) started to heavily mass immunize their citizens.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/19/china/china-vaccination-drive-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
00
“Indian lack of fresh fruit and vegetables in their daily diet”
a good chunk of the Indian population is vegetarian
20
So they miss out on Zn and B12 from beef and mutton, Vit D from offal meats and bare skin. Maybe saris are a class thing, I don’t know.
When I was a kid a tanned body in speedos was considered a healthy picture. When did we become so fearful of the sun?
10
Easy. Australia and India are apples and oranges. Epidemiology is about more than a virus, it is about environment and society.
You left out the incubation period for the guy who immediately went to Victoria after catching the virus in SA.
00
33% effectiveness after 1st vaccination for covid19-Delta
It’s Greek to me and almost hopeless. Be careful
00
Your comment has no bearing on what i said
10
not only that the figure is incorrect.
00
@gee aye
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-b-1-617-2-variant-after-2-doses
00
Woman who’d been on Wollert Man’s flight from Adelaide when he left hotel quarantine has been requested to provide blood for antibody testing which is suggestive that tracers are at a loss to understand how he’s been the principal source of the current Victorian lockdown.
00
When dealing with small outbreaks the distinctions between variants doesnt loom large.
Its only with population wide outbreaks and 50% vaccine penetration that one starts to worry over vaccine efficiency and Rt transmission rates.
I hope Aus doesnt get a severe outbreak of covid. There are enough problems dealing with Covid and its variants in places where it is endemic that I am unconcerned about the fishiness of a handful of cases
I see how our maritime provinces sweat it out trying to reduce their caseload to Australian levels or rarity
10
(intended as a reply to hypersonic’s comment above)
00
correcy. He isn’t. He transmitted it to someone ages ago that went undetected,
00
ENSO remains neutral.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2021_v6.jpg
10
‘Putting Our Kids First: A Look At COVID-19 School Guidelines And How They’re Affecting Our Children’
https://odysee.com/@sayerji:7/freeourkids:8
00
Joe Biden calls for US to confront its past on 100th anniversary of Tulsa massacre
President drew a through-line from racist violence in 1921 to recent displays of white supremacy in Charlottesville and the US Capitol
Joe Biden has used the centenary of the Tulsa race massacre as a rallying cry for America to be honest about its history, insisting that great nations “come to terms with their dark sides”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/01/joe-biden-tulsa-race-massacre
10
If only he cared as much about the race massacre that happens in Chicago every week.
No points to be scored among the believers there I guess.
10
Uh oh…..
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/israel-reports-link-between-rare-cases-heart-inflammation-and-covid-19-vaccination
“The COVID-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech appears to put young men at elevated risk of developing a heart muscle inflammation called myocarditis, researchers in Israel say. In a report submitted today to the Israeli Ministry of Health, they conclude that between one in 3000 and one in 6000 men ages 16 to 24 who received the vaccine developed the rare condition. But most cases were mild and resolved within a few weeks, which is typical for myocarditis. “I can’t imagine it’s going to be anything that would cause medical people to say we shouldn’t vaccinate kids,” says Douglas Diekema, a pediatrician and bioethicist at Seattle Children’s Hospital.
“Israeli health officials first flagged the issue in April, when they reported more than 60 cases, mostly in young men who had received their second dose of vaccine a few days earlier. Around the same time, the U.S. Department of Defense began to track 14 such cases. In mid-May, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it, too, was reviewing myocarditis cases. Officials at the European Medicines Agency said on 28 May they had received 107 reports of myocarditis following the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, or about one in 175,000 doses administered. But relatively few people under age 30 have been vaccinated in Europe.
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I haven’t read the latest posts so if someone has already posted this, my apologies.
This pic
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/449073025510277120/849543420090515506/60cda4f7ac57f0b0649f686eb317aab20354e6d6.png
shows which part of the gen set exploded at Callide and how significant the damage. PPE would not have helped anyone close.
My interpretation is that there was no hydrogen explosion, that end is undamaged. What I see reinforces [Lance’s?] claim that a blade separated from the steam turbine in which case I should apologise for my claims of human error, to people who wouldn’t read Jo’s blog anyway.
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Wow !…that is a bit more than a blade separation failure. !…
That is a section of the main shaft sticking out of the floor in the foreground !
That is the end of days for that turbine…and possibly the whole generation unit ?
A miracle no one was injured.
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Warm blob in the North Pacific and cool blob in the North Atlantic, is it associated with climate change?
https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-north-atlantic-warm-hole-shifts-toward-europe-in-may-2/
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‘The persistence of these two SSTA regions is well-correlated to a persistent upper-level high-pressure ridge in the Northeast Pacific and upper-level low-pressure trough south of Greenland. Climate Impact Company is of the opinion these regional SSTA influences have become leading models of climate influence on North America and Europe climate.’
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Oh dear, sheet happens I guess. Mossad would never do anything like this.
Iranian navy’s largest warship, the Kharg, catches fire and sinks in Gulf of Oman
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-02/iran-navy-ship-catches-fire-gulf-of-oman/100186272
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El Gordo getting desperate. “Blobs” are of minimal relevance to CC and CAGW. Blobs of temperature anomalies can occur ANYWHERE at ANYTIME. And what is the definition of “persistance”? Get real
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Very amusing young Chris.
Persistence in this case means semi-permanent and it will blow the socks of AGW.
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This recent post by Alan Longhurst says the Atlantic conveyor belt isn’t relevant to European weather.
https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/12/north-atlantic-nonsense/
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