“’I am 62 years old and had never seen the snow’: Brazilians revel in unusually cold weather”
Watch the Antarctic cold burst reach up into South America. If only climate models could predict Jet Streams.
Intense Antarctic cold is racing through South America right now, widespread frost with some snow observed all the way into southern Brazil.
Coffee prices are surging as the cold threatens production. pic.twitter.com/KcokCx3Gv4
— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) July 29, 2021
There are wandering jet streams at work, watch the video. We get some idea of how vast these weather systems are.
This is how the jet stream looks during the cold surge in South America.
A strong meander helping drive deep cold from the Antarctic ice shelves.
Rather mesmerising. pic.twitter.com/e0DlexJ1NO
— Scott Duncan (@ScottDuncanWX) July 29, 2021
And yet it reminds me of a candle flame…
Everyone knows that warming causes cooling, along with everything else.
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It must work like an old kero fridge.
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So that is where they get thge particulates for the climate models then?
10
UN IPCC climate hoax modelling adjusts to encompass everything, that’s why the science is settled.
[sarc]
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“Everyone knows that warming causes cooling, along with everything else.”
War is Peace
Ignorance is Knowledge
Freedom is Slavery
Cooling is Warming
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Ignorance is strength; to officialdom. In other words, in ignorance, officialdom will find ways and means to enhance continuously their strength and power of the people until they are subdued and turned into slaves. It’s working exactly as planned thus far.
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I had to put down my poor old 17-year old tabby cat. I don’t agree with the vet’s diagnoses. I’m sure that my poor old cat died as a direct consequence of climate change, same as polar bears do.
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Trump is going to jail over this….again.
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OMG, please, is it true?
Is the weather really chaotic.
What are we to do?
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Imagine how many Brazilians got caught out in the cold?, sun lovers would’ve felt really ripped off…………
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Apparently Japanese on line body wig shops ran out of stock.
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Cue the gerbil warming alarmists!… “gerbil warming is causing this”
It doesn’t matter whether it is cold or hot temperatures, floods, bushfires, riots, white privelege, people sneezing…”it’s all caused by gerbil warming!”
I don’t need the sarc tag do I?
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If climate changes causes websites to popup all over the world, anything can happen. All that cloud based data and observed larger files slowing live streaming.
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What do we do? We do what our “masters” are telling us to do – reduce our emissions and we must do it ASAP. Who ever thought we would be in a position where the voting public endorse such a self-destructive policy by keep voting for them. Well today we’ve reached that point. Stupid is as stupid does.
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The large possible change in the jet stream and the pattern of jet stream movement…. And extreme climate events in South America, are likely, caused by the South Atlantic geomagnetic ‘anomaly’, which is now centered over South America.
The field geomagnetic field strength over South America, is less than a third of its normal strength, as compared to other locations on the earth, same latitude as shown in this picture, which is taken from the paper link to, “The South Atlantic Anomaly: The Key for a Possible Geomagnetic Reversal”.
https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/188187/feart-04-00040-HTML/image_m/feart-04-00040-g001.jpg
The above picture is from this paper.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2016.00040/full
The authors of the South Atlantic Geomagnetic anomaly paper appear to (pretend that they do not) know about about cyclic geomagnetic excursions, which occur in less than decade. These cyclic geomagnetic excursions were discovered about 10 years ago. Geomagnetic excursions interestingly, occur just before extreme cooling events.
And oddly enough, the extreme cooling periods, like the YD abrupt cooling period occur immediately after the Dansgaard-Oescgher warming periods. The D-O warming period are short warming periods that last either 20 years or 30 years, after which there is cooling and sometimes geomagnetic excursions which cause abrupt cooling events that last for a long time.
he D-O warming periods occur during the interglacial period and glacial period. They occur with a periodicity of 400 years and 1200 years.
Starting in about 1997, the geomagnetic field of the earth which was decaying at 5% per century, changed and is now decaying at 5% per decade. Ten times faster.
A decay rate of 5% per decade is a geomagnetic excursion that is happening now and which is affecting ‘climate’ now.
http://news.yahoo.com/earths-magnetic-field-weakening-10-times-faster-now-121247349.html
“Earth’s Magnetic Field Is Weakening 10 Times Faster Now
…Previously, researchers estimated the field was weakening about 5 percent per century, but the new data revealed the field is actually weakening at 5 percent per decade, or 10 times faster than thought.”
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As with the recent event in NW USA and Canada there is a distinct meridional effect. I haven’t looked further other than to note our systems in Australia are quite latitudinal – similar to patterns in the old text books! What you are saying William is highly plausible.
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William – interesting theory , but not enough data yet( as with all of climate thoeries). Both weather and climate are chaotic systems which generally defy accurate prediction . Upvoted for reasearch diligence….
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I prefer changes in the stratospheric ozone destruction/creation balance being different above equator and poles in response to solar wavelength and particle changes as the primary cause but geomagnetic excursions would affect the distribution of ozone somewhat by redirecting charged particles to favoured locations along the magnetic field lines. However, I see that as a secondary effect.
The point is that solar changes alter the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles and that is what affects jet stream meridionality/zonality.
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Some climate models do forecast a more meandering jet stream as the temperature differential between pole and equator reduces.
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“Some climate models do forecast a more meandering jet stream…”
Which proves that if you make enough runs of the many different climate models, its likely that at least some of them will show that whatever happened was predicted by a climate model.
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A lot like the PCR test for COVID-19. Run it enough times and you will eventually detect a fragment, which by the way could be flu related instead. How is that for science? That’s like saying a student getting an F is a pass. Oh, I just remembered – they are doing that too.
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LOL.. if you make enough “models” that forecast everything..
… one of them may be lucky enough to get something, somewhere near right, occasionally.
Climate models are like painting a thousand targets on the side of a barn,
… and mostly missing the side of the barn completely.
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There is now a course of study on how the outputs of different climate models can be combined to give the best answer. It is mostly political science because it gets hard to tell the Chinese that their model is showing less warming than all the others. China probably has a point when they say that their model is closet to the unhomogenised measured data. However such thoughts are heresy in model world; the real world is clearly wrong.
This is what consensus science is all about. They are considering weighting the climate model outputs by the number of published papers that reference the model or the number of PhDs held by the group developing a particular model. It is the perfection of consensus science. Once the method of combining the outputs is set, trends are agreed then the challenge is to make measured data perform accordingly.
One factor working in favour of consensus science is the ease at which history can be changed. This has become a bedrock of consensus science. Global temperatures will be whatever the science tells us it should be. There will always be extreme weather events that regularly confirm the consensus – we told you so.
One thing climate scientist will never guarantee is that the weather will be perpetually balmy once the world achieves zero CO2. You would think those dishing out the money would be seeking some sort of guarantee – spend this for that result sort of thing!. I have a sneaky suspicion that there has always been extreme weather events and always will be no matter how much CO2 is in the atmosphere – but then I am not one for consensus science.
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Isn’t it the Russian model that is at least somewhere realistic ?
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No – the Chinese FGOALS model has the lowest trend and is close to the CMRW model:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhBlQt8jdeBoZ9NhY
Most comparisons of models show the anomaly. In this chart I have used the actual temperature output of the models. As far as the Chinese model is concerned, there is no global warming. Global warming has become a powerful political tool whereby China encourages the west to respond to their model output while China will retain business as usual in response to their model output. It is working out very well for China.
According to the EU MIROC model the globe is already toast. That suits the EU global emergency agenda and globalists.
What the models demonstrate is that consensus science does not work for actual temperature – just trends. The vast majority of the consensus is centred on the trend and that is what they strive to achieve consensus on at their pow wows. The actual temperature is quite simply a meaningless number – and I agree with that. Once you accept that it is a meaningless number then you do not get bent out of shape looking at how the actual Global Surface Temperature was measured in 1850 when humans started releasing the evil industrial CO2. Humans also release CO2 but it is not bad CO2.
History will prove that the CMRW is by far the most accurate followed closely by the Chinese model. The surface temperature on earth is dominated by oceans and oceans have hard temperature limits at 271K and 303K; the temperature is not a result of the energy balance; rather the temperatures control the energy balance. It is a little serendipitous that the average temperature over land and oceans is close to the arithmetic mean of the two extremes – 287K. The average of oceans through the distribution of water is around 291K and the average of land through its distribution and average 800m elevation is around 281K. But it is still a meaningless number. The important fact is that it is very difficult to change and not sensitive to the minuscule addition of CO2 from human industry.
The upper limit reached 305K during the Cretaceous period when the oxygen content was higher resulting in average surface pressure 10% higher than present. CO2 at even 0.1%, 2.5X what it is now, is not going to make measurable difference. CO2 driven warming, changing or weirding is fantasy no matter how it is worded. The story tellers are just good at spinning wonderfully intricate fairy tales that suit a lot of powerful lobbies. What could be better than having the poor willingly or unknowingly giving a good portion of their income to the wealthy and their betters in the cause of planet saving.
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Ok, its been a while since I bothered wasting my time looking at them ! 😉
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Just in case people think I was being sarcastic in the above comment, I thought I should provide a link for the ClimWIP process:
https://docs.esmvaltool.org/en/feature-freeze-2.3.0/recipes/recipe_climwip.html
The one point of clatifaction is that when the talk about model performance it is related to the output of all the other models. They are aiming for consensus across the board to reduce any room for debate.
If you ask a climate modeller to justify the output of their model their most effective response is that our model is middle of all the other models. This is CONSENSUS SCIENCE at work. So the aim of modellers is to achieve a consensus on the target and then minimise the deviation. It is not easy when there are literally thousands of parameters that have to be tweaked and it is regarded as cheating to use another set of parameters. In any case, the modern models have self-tuning front ends so they can be loaded with historical data (the CMIP agreed set) and then tune themselves to that data; a bit like the way a polynomial is used to fit a curve in Excel. (Well a lot like the way Excel fits polynomial but think of a polynomial with a thousand plus degrees of freedom).
One of the problems currently besetting the modellers is the fact that the models run hot because there is a consensus sensitivity to CO2. The modelling organisations are also in charge of the weather monitoring and forecast so they adjust history to get the predicted upward trend the well known “homogenisation” that only ever homogenises the past down – a more precise term would be downtrending history. That trend is then used for the next model tuning, which agian runs hot. So here we are at CMIP6 and it has become even more challenging to cool the past to keep the upward trend going.
Interesting aside here – the BoM in Australia were more or less forced politically to disclose thei details of their homogenisation process. It is known as the ACORN data set. So that process needs to be regularly updated to keep cooling the past; the current process is ACORN 2.1.
So here we are at CMIP6 and ACORN 2.1 and apart from a little measurable warming in built up areas nothing has much changed since CMIP1 (if that existed) and real measured data; the forerunner of ACORN.
Consensus Science is wonderful. The new innovation for CMIP6 is the ditching of RCPs for the much more cuddly SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways). Somehow I think China is on a somewhat different pathway – why does any country develop bioweapons! Maybe they all are – I do not know.
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Consensus science is Nonsensus science.
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‘Some climate models do forecast a more meandering jet stream …’
I’m sceptical and demand to see a link?
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128215753000153
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LOL.. so easy to forecast after the event, isn’t it.
Like Nostradamus.. bend the older model prediction to suit what actually happened.
Its all very non-science nonsense. !
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Curve fitting at its best!
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From your link “The rapid warming of the Arctic, “
Sorrrrry !!!.. the Arctic has not warmed this century…. apart from the now disappeared 2016 El Nino effect
These people are just taking the misinformation of the climate agenda and trying to bend it to their preconceived ideas.
It is very funny to watch from a non-science fantasy point of view. !
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“the Arctic has not warmed this century…”
https://i.postimg.cc/85Gt0HqZ/UAH-Nopol-2021.png
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Historic UAH data is not considered reliable at higher latitudes because of poor coverage.
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LOL…. UAH is the only data that does cover high latitudes,
It only misses 5% of the whole Arctic circle region, and that is around the coldest point, being the North Pole..
It is surface data which is a total and complete joke.
You really have to do better than that, simple one !!
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Area above Arctic circle = approx 21Mkm²
Area above 85ºN = approx 960,000km²
Percentage of Arctic area “missed” by UAH satellite data = Approx 4.5%
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And since UAH NoPol calculates from measurements from 60ºN – 85ºN
The area above 60ºN is about 34Mkm²..
… so the percentage “missed” is around 2.84%
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All the chapters in this book are an exercise in attributing any weather phenomenon to climate change, written in 2021 and not remotely an example of predictions coming true from a good understanding of atmospheric physics.
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Well said R.B. ! 🙂
Again, notice the “may” used as a catch-all.. non-science !
ie.. they haven’t got a clue !!
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Also “hypothesized”, “tends”, “should” and a second “may”
About as non-committal as you can get
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“May” means the same as “may not”, “possibly” is no different than “possibly not”. I constantly see words of this type in research conclusions and abstracts. I judge these research papers as probably or probably not worth reading. I lean towards the not worth reading,
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‘ … an exercise in attributing any weather phenomenon to climate change …’
Its best to use ‘global warming’ in this instance.
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R.B.
They could have written —
And it would be just as ‘sciency’.
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Should be true for Antarctica too, and yes, Simple Simon, as usual on the wrong path:
Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather
Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe
Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming
Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate
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You may not have had the idea nutural reasons coud cause the affect the jet stream ?
One natural reason could be the lack of UV radiation cooling the thermosphere causing its shrinkingaffecting even satellites orbit.
The UV radiations impact on the thermospere is measured as TCI the daily values you find at spaceweaher.com
The Chill of Solar Minimum the explanation
The respective actual graph
At least you may reflect about instead of mundering always about climate change if a fart leave your pants. 😀
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Did they “predict” the meandering jetstream before or after it happened or was it just a wild guess to explain how “warming causes cooling”?
The falsely-called climate “models” are not models at all, just propaganda tools for the ignorant as they are not validated and have no forecasting or hindcasting capabilities whatsoever as they are based on false premises.
The IPCC climate models are a shocking waste of supercomputing resources which could be used for something useful and truthful, not to mention the amount of supposed “greenhouse gases” emitted due to the large amounts of real power from proper coal and gas power stations used by the computers (since a supercomputer needs 100% reliable power, not intermittents).
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If the models concentrated on natural variability and eliminated CO2 as a driver, then we’ll know the meaning of everything.
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Pretty sure that it wasn’t predicted.
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Don’t forget flim flam Flannery – the marsupial bones drip – who said in 2004 global warming would cause such droughts that “there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis” due to the lack of rain.
And, that green unscientific cabal, the CSIRO, made a similar point in 2008.
https://www.news.com.au/news/top-10-dud-predictions/news-story/97eacf3d268d1ae485fd2107007d4b7a
Yet here we are, having just finished the month of July, with what some are calling the highest rainfall ever recorded in Perth; and no ghosts either.
https://www.watercorporation.com.au/Our-water/Rainfall-and-dams/Rainfall
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I’m in Perth too Sam and the soaked July set me thinking about how calmly officials lie to us. Considering they still handle any questioning about carbon emissions policy with “The science is settled. The overwhelming scientific consensus is that global warming is real and due to man’s activities”.
Reminds of the story of the Japanese soldier discovered on a remote island several years after WW2 ended. Unaware the war had ended he had survived but couldn’t believe Japan had not only lost, but even surrendered! The truth was too shocking for him to accept.
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PS RB,
I think David Viner, PhD, also had his name attached to that piece of anti-science as well as Parker.
Let none of them off the hook. Let them all eat their stupidity.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/children-just-arent-going-to-know-what-snow-is/news-story/5a16c85680b7cc94f345240a727fb09d
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Simon this article gets close to your argument, the general hypothesis is that a warming Arctic has created meandering jet streams in both hemispheres.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-22/how-climate-change-impacts-the-jet-stream-and-your-weather
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Which of course explains wavy jet streams regularly over hundreds of years 😉
specifically 1977, 1945, etc.
https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2018-11-13182529_shadow.jpg
Just because we couldn’t see or measure them until relatively recently, doesn’t mean they didn’t exist throughout all human history… or back millions, billions of years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct1wyb
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This from the mid 1940’s
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQRDgj4KlCh4-rOOfU8mt_1ZBSYzoUv7DRMbINO6wHoQm3S-akYDaNRKciHZU5Q7nDVP8Y&usqp=CAU
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They only really started to try to understand the meanderings of the jet stream in the mid 1950s.. That is a very short knowledge period.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26242083
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True, its like seeing for the first time.
The zealots will try to prove that a warming Arctic is responsible for jet stream meandering.
https://sunshinehours.net
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Yet the Arctic has been significantly warmer than now for most of the last 10,000 years.
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sunshinehours is a few days behind.. Its now day 210 and the Arctic is close to the 15 year mean.
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darn…. forgot the pic again
https://i.postimg.cc/LX10JydV/Arctic-Day-210-2021.jpg
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But Simon, the science is settled – why do different climate models provide different outcomes?
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After all, there is only one variable – CO2 right?
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They call it fine tuning. We call it lies.
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Strange how it happens every 11 years. Does CO2 go to sleep in between solar minimums?
Low solar activity link to cold UK winters (2010)
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But Bruce, climate “attribution” studies say the Sun has basically no effect on the climate 😉
Seems they may learn a lot about reality over the next few decades 🙂
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And a broken clock is right twice a day.
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Really? can you post the models for us?
Meanwhile doesn’t it bother you at how cold it has been in the effected areas, doesn’t sound like global warming caused it to me.
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Simon it appears that Arctic Amplification is a myth.
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/polar-warming-makes-jet-stream-stable-not-wavy-blocked
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I understand that alarmist climate models actually predict more zonality which pushes the jets polewards into a straighter, faster pattern around the poles which INCREASES the temperature gradient between equator and poles.
Jennifer Francis tried to get around the problem by proposing a reduced gradient but as I pointed out at the time we had more meridional jets during the cooling world of the Little Ice Age which could not have had anything to do with CO2.
The flaws in her desperate attempt to deal with the problem are now becoming more widely apparent.
It is no coincidence that the wavier jets have developed at the same time as the initial pause and now slight cooling.
The next primary indicator under my hypothesis is a change in the ENSO balance in avour of La Ninas compared to El Ninos. That arises because wavier jets cause more clouds which reduces solar input to the oceans.
A dominance of La Ninas will push global temperatures more firmly downwards.
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You can’t trust what this science fella says. There is an explosion of mountain beetles eating forests in Canada because global warming means that it rarely gets below -40°C to kill them. Then he claims that these jetstreams are happening more often, bringing extreme cold, because of global warming – oops – climate change.
What end of this fella are we listening to?
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Also forecasting cold weather in Europe in a year in which they haven’t had much real summer.
Maybe even early snow in Austria.
https://notrickszone.com/2021/07/31/skipping-summer-fall-like-weather-sweeps-across-europe-super-cooled-europe-snow-forecast/
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So it sounds like the weather is on track for snow for COP26 in Glasgow on 31 October – 12 November 2021. I hope they invite Al Gore to provide a little insurance for that outcome.
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Let’s hope they freeze their butts off.
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Cool wet summers in Europe are a sign of global cooling.
A meandering jet stream and blocking in both hemispheres is proof that the system has entered a cool phase.
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“A meandering jet stream and blocking in both hemispheres is proof that the system has entered a cool phase.”
It doesn’t seem that enough is known about meandering jet streams and blocking to link either to climate change
https://www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events
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We already know enough to link blocking to climate change.
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to link blocking to weather change
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To link blocking its global cooling is more accurate.
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Its looking bleak for the Northern Hemisphere.
‘For winter weather enthusiasts like myself the predicted circulation pattern across the NH is more reminiscent of mid-winter much more so than mid-summer. A healthy negative AO associated with troughs and relatively cool temperatures simultaneously across Northern Europe, East Asia and eastern North America is more common in winter than in summer and even in winter is rare.’ (Judah Cohen AER)
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Here’s a bit of weather news el gotrdo I live in Western Australia where this winter has been colder and wetter and with more strong winds than any previous winter I can remember but what has caused it I have no idea perhaps the jet stream or blocking or perhaps not. However it ain’t climate change it’s just weather
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Its only “Climate Change™” when its hotter and/or dryer.
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Of course its weather and also climate change.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/maximum-july-temperature-records-broken-across-outback-queensland/534698
Anomalous weather, over a sustained period, is an indication that the climate has reached a tipping point.
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I read the article which mentioned the record heat in 2010, the eprevious heat record set 135 years ago and another in the state’s south west set 70 years ago. The length of time between these three widely spaced records is hardly indicative of or evidence for “Anomalous weather, over a sustained period”. Three records over such a long time can hardly be classed as sustained.
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My argument is that there are oceanic cycles on earth that maybe directly linked to solar behaviour, but the jury is still out on that tele connection.
‘ … and another in the state’s south west set 70 years ago.’
The PDO was at its height during WW2 but not sure with 1875, I’ll take a look.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/PDO-over-the-last-100-years-Nine-years-moving-average-PDO-index-is-indicated-in-black_fig1_323553944
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Thanks for the link.T here’s a lot of info
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Okay we’ll put it down to anomalous weather until proven otherwise. Take note, when the PDO is positive the Northern Hemisphere goes through a sustained cool/wet period.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation#/media/File:PDO1000yr.svg
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The Southern Hemisphere has been cooling since 1585. The rate of cooling will accelerate for the next 3kyr but will continue for 12kyr before it begins to warm again.
The insolation over southern oceans is down 0.1W/sq.m from where it was in 1600. Doesn’t sound much but there is a lot of ocean in the Southern Hemisphere.
The ONLY constant in climate is CHANGE. The Earth has never tracked the same path relative to the sun at the same obliquity and precession. Every day is different to the last and every year is different to the last.
2020 was the year of highest top of atmosphere insolation over global oceans since 2001. 2022 will have the lowest insolation over oceans in the current decade. Earth’s orbit wobbles and it has real consequences – in contrast to change in CO2 levels where that only alters the output of models.
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The problem is that the Left have a primitive belief from Medieval times or earlier in a constant unchanging earth and universe, with occasional sacrifices made to the gods to keep things in order. Today the Chicomms replace the gods as the beneficiaries of the Left’s sacrifices made with the money and hard labours of the hard working people of the West.
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I’m pretty sure that sceptical people don’t rely on “..that I remember” cool stories but instead insist on checking the data.
“Western Australia in July 2021:
…
July rainfall was 7% above 1961–90 average
…
For southwestern Western Australia (south-west of a line between Jurien Bay and Brember Bay), July rainfall was 55% above 1961–90 average, and the wettest July since 1996.
…
mean temperature for July was 1.60 °C above 1961–90 average, which was the third-warmest July on record.
…
Mean minimum temperatures were above average across almost the entire state, and it was particularly warm in the west; several sites in the SWLD had their warmest July nights on record, or warmest for at least 20 years.
…”
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/wa/summary.shtml
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And yet, there is more heat trapping carbon (sic) in the Brazilian atmosphere …
15 July, 2021, NPR: Parts of the Amazon Rainforest are now releasing more carbon (sic) than they absorb
Study confirms new research published in the journal Nature suggests that mass deforestation and fire dramatically undercut the Amazon’s ability to absorb heat-trapping carbon (sic) emissions.
https://www.npr.org/2021/07/15/1016469317/parts-of-the-amazon-rainforest-are-now-releasing-more-carbon-than-they-absorb
Undeniable further evidence that carbon (sic) is not the climate warming control knob.
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Love the graphics!
Great work Scott Duncan.
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For decades Canadas top enviro-loon David Suzuki blamed insect infestations on the over use of insecticides. Then about 20 years ago he suddenly changed his tune and blamed climate change. He never even mentions insecticides anymore, it’s like insecticides never happened. Pathetic.
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He’s a tragic opportunist.
Ugly.
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He’s now known as the Mortein Man. The fastest knock-down ever.
Give him a spray. That’ll reckitt.
He’s a blood sucking insect with a bank account.
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Southern Hemisphere has been cooling since 1585. Northern Hemisphere has been warming since then. Global peak insolation over ocean occurred 300 years ago.
Also worth noting that the South Atlantic is a cold basin. Tropical cyclones in Brazil are rare. The solar input to the South Atlantic peaked in 1585. Now in a long term cooling phase for the next 12kyr.
Maybe recent weather is indicative of the long-term trends.
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We are talking fluid dynamics, you might have it wrong.
‘Researchers used data on Earth’s orbit to find the historical warm interglacial period that looks most like the current one and from this have predicted that the next ice age would usually begin within 1,500 years.’ (wiki)
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We are currently 400 years into the next glaciation cycle. It is not fast in human terms but the signs are there. Tropical North Atlantic will get warmer in autumn and northern winters will get colder. More atmospheric water just before the land surface goes cold will result in heavier snow fall. Soon it will be enough to start accumulating with glaciers advancing.
There are already signs that the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing increased weather extremes – exactly as expected from the changing orbit. I have serious doubts that any amount of wind generators can change Earth’s orbit. Maybe if Australia can shift enough dirt to China and redistribute the steel over the northern land masses it can shift the tilt.
I also have some confidence in my prediction that dimetia Joe will not be around when USA eventually gets to Zero Carbon. If he was he could seek substantial damages from the climate groups for their false promises of balmy weather once industrial CO2 was eliminated. Northern Hemisphere will not experience reduced extremes for another 12kyr. The balmy conditions for the Northern Hemisphere over the last 5kyr are over – maybe another 100 years of fair conditions. Would be interesting times to see glaciers heading toward New York. All those Canadians scrambling to cross the northern US border as ice envelopes their land. Who is not looking forward to these changes! Exciting times indeed.
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We are currently at the end of the Holocene and should expect to see a return to glaciation in a few thousand years. First its cool and wet, then dry and cold.
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That has to have something to do with precession of the equinoxes!
30
Essentially ALL to do with precession. Perihelion occurs, on average, 15.6 calendar days later every thousand years. Perihelion has occurred after the austral summer solstice since 1585; now early January. That marked the reversal in the heating and cooling of the hemispheres.
The tropical Northern Hemisphere has autumn insolation trending up. The winter insolation is trending down. That will bring higher snow falls to the land masses surrounding the North Atlantic.
Overall, the oceans have been getting less solar input for the last 300 years. That reduces evaporation thereby steepening the ocean thermocline to retain more heat; the cooling rate has reduced. Hence the deep oceans are a little warmer and undergoing thermal expansion. The sea level will fall once ice again accumulates on land.
Glaciation is baked into the orbit unless humans can interfere with the ice accumulation.
30
Earth’s jet streams meander at will,
Reaching far into southern Brazil,
From the Antarctic fetch,
Which Grand Minima stretch,
Bringing winter cold, snow and deep chill.
150
We’re doomed.
30
How do you think Australia will go in the next glacial period, assuming we get a rational government by then and have got rid of unreliables and replaced them with coal, gas and nuclear?
70
I don’t think there is much evidence of glacial formations in Australia !
53
Driving from Sydney to Canberra the geography shows signs of having been scoured by moving ice, but by contrast with the northern hemisphere there was little ice in Australia.
In New York the ice field was apparently almost a mile deep and we had nothing like that.
100
Lake George is a “maybe”
60
Maybe some of the valleys in the the Kosciuszko area could be glacial.
But most of Australia is so old, that rivers have done most of the geoforming.
110
I’ve never really gone into it too deeply but, for sure, there wasn’t much ice here.
60
Where Keith? It all seems like rolling hills typical of the underlying granite belt to me. Just normal granite geomorphology, similar to basalt areas but with added granite tors here and there where the overlying softer sedimentary rock has weathered away above the pluton. Australia has a lot of glacial history but that’s hundreds of millions of years ago, not 20,000 years.
Granite breaks down into coarse sand plus clay with reasonably high sodium content. Sodic soils are somewhat prone to erosion and you can get exposed, bare sections of the pluton similar to glacial scouring like up at Bald Rock near Tenterfield just south of the QLD border. Similar geology and similar soils to the southern tablelands. Bald Rock has never been under ice. No glacial score marks etc.
Around Goulburn there are some geological aberrations like an iron ore deposit where they took out from memory 500,000 tons of ore during the war. I have zero idea how that came to be in the middle of a granite belt.
Incidentally up until the late 60s there used to be a stray boulder behind Rutherford Pub at Maitland, positively identified as a glacial erratic. Now long gone, the area under houses since the 70s. I can’t remember which epoch that belonged to. There are also varve shales at Clarencetown, the result of seasonal glacial runoff into some long-vanished lake millions of years ago. The glacial “flour” deposits in layers of alternating thickness according to the volume of runoff during the freeze and the thaw.
The Hunter has some quite complex and interesting geology like a massive volcano centred on Aberdeen that blasted a pyroclastic flow about 110km all the way down to northern Maitland where it still had enough heat to form ignimbrites — a sort of pyroclastic sediment of welded air-borne crystals. Makes Vesuvius look like a toy.
50
While driving down to the snow a few times in the mid eighties I needed something to occupy me and looked at the countryside. My knowledge of geology is basic but did note some rounded over areas and a few isolated rocks that I imagined could have been dumped there by a glacier. Just speculation.
Later I read about the difference in ice coverage between the hemispheres; Australia had very little ice at the LGM.
40
Now I’m moderated for talking about rocks? Mods?
40
There are some well scoured rocks in Central Park
30
There is an ancient glacier between Bingara and NARRABRI on the Rocky creek. The creek has cut through a volcanic rim to reveal scarring of conglomerates to a shiny finish. The glacier is dated to 300myr Permian or early Triassic? .The volcano is around 25 million. This is from memory.
91
“The volcano is around 25 million. This is from memory.”
Wow.. you must be really old !! 🙂
110
Extensive striation & exotic/erratic rocks from Permian glaciation (200m years or so) on the coast south of Adelaide.
30
Evidence of at least 3 glaciations, the Sturt (670-660Ma), and the Elatina (640-635Ma), and another at 305-280Ma can be seen in the Hallett Cove conservation park.
What is Australia now, was once well in the south polar region… so a bit of ice is to be expected.
80
LOL, I guess I should have said “relatively recent” 😉
ie…. last million years or so.
30
ps.. Thanks to the geology people who corrected my “guess”
40
The Australian Alps were glaciated and also Tasmania high country.
Lake Mungo, in central NSW, was kept full by glacial meltwater.
40
‘About 22,000 years ago the world plunged into an even drier, colder, glacial phase. Icefields spread across the northern continents and sea level fell to about 120 metres below present. Australia turned cool, dry and windy. Glaciers developed around Mount Kosciuszko and in the Tasmanian highlands. Winter snowfields extended along the ranges. Sand dunes became barren and mobile, moving in around the lakes from the west.
Forces shaping Willandra Lakes – 0:54
‘20,000 years ago the last glacial maximum was its peak. Temperatures were about 6 degrees lower than today. Plant and animal life were greatly diminished. Woodlands contracted into grasslands and shrublands. Cold winds blew sand and dust-storms in from the west. Fed by mountain snow-melt, the rivers pulsed with high spring and summer flows and large amounts of sediment, but the Lachlan River shrank back from the lakes and dissipated onto the barren plains. Willandra Lakes dried out, never to fill again.’ (Mungo.com)
10
I’m weirdly envious of our Brazilian friends. Here in central Chile July was unusualy warm and extremely dry. Serious drought again. Hope they send us some of that snow to these parts before the winter ends.
60
Brazil and Mexico are in the same predicament.
10
I’m getting very anxious about the issue, even spoke to my husband about relocating south to somewhere it rains, lol. Santiago has a population of 7m+ people, nearby cities like Rancagua and Valparaiso – even Mendoza in Argentina – have tons of people, and we’re all suffering from years of drought…some years better than others (2020 was closer to “normal”) but dry nonetheless
40
Couldn’t find mention of this remarkable sign of massive tropical cooling in the mainstream left press. This is like snow in Singapore. Not a sausage in the Guardian.
However Guardian tv has a clip with the caption “Snow covers the southern Brazilian city of Urupema. The sub-zero temperatures in southern Brazil come as a deadly heat wave slams Canada and the United States.”
Clearly the photos are very newsworthy and they cannot resist, but in case anyone gets the idea that climate change means rapid cooling, they have to mention a ‘deadly heat wave’ in the same breath.
And when extraordinary snow/cold in the tropics is mentioned at all, no mention of Climate Change. This is just a ‘very rare’ extreme Weather Event. And caused by jet streams and the like. Most importantly, it is not a sign of Global Cooling! But firestorms in forests are a sure and certain sign of Global Warming. Some Scientists say.
So it’s an international case of media using Mike’s trick ‘Hide the decline‘. And of course, boost the significance of ‘deadly’ heat, especially in desert climates. But cold weather kills more people than heat. Most things thrive in heat, the Amazon basin for example which is entirely tropical. Bias in Climate Science? Never!
But the promised +1.5C, even +5C by 2100 sounds very attractive but when was a Climate prediction ever right or did two sure and certain predictions even agree? In fact the most likely change is -3C and the monkeys in the Amazon will be falling out of the trees.
120
Climate experts say that bushfires are entirely caused by climate. Snow is not a climate event, even in the steamy tropics. It is just an odd thing.
Floods are also absoltely Climate as are droughts in desert areas like California and Australia, lands of drought and flooding rains. And storms are all definitely Climate Change.
What is not climate are peaceful days of sunshine and little wind and moderate rain. The majority of days on the planet. The Chicken Little Climate Chasers have spoken. And it did not snow in Brazil or Cairo. Nothing to see here. Not worth reporting, especially as simple minded non Climate Scientists might think the world is cooling.
So even if it did snow, it’s not newsworthy. But the photos and videos are great vision, so they are shown. Definitely not Climate Change though. Just very, very odd.
101
“What is not climate are peaceful days of sunshine and little wind and moderate rain.”
I assume you mean this is the world that will happen when climate change is stopped.
If my assumption is correct, such a world would need just enough wind to turn the wind turbines to generate the free electricity and the moderate rain would need to fall only at night. Rain during the day would mean clouds and no sun.
50
Most places are peaceful most of the time. When Ferdinand Magellan around Cape Horn he named the gigantic ocean which occupies half a planet as the Pacific, because in his experience it was peaceful.
Of course the Pacific has massive storms, but in his opinion, compared with the Atlantic oceans and the Carribean and, it was a peaceful deeper ocean far from the weather generating land masses and the water around Cuba which is surrounded by land on three sides and generates the Gulf stream.
I find it very disturbing that forest fires and floods which are often regular if not predictable events are held to be indicators of climate change and heating. Snow in the tropics or Cairo (2013) are incredible and surely a harbinger of forces at play pushing for a colder world.
There have been many such major cold events in the last year right through central America even down to Texas, France, a lot of places. And the Northern spring was remarkably cool.
My point is that such things are passed over by the press as just the weather when they are more likely indicators of rapid cooling than a forest fire is an indicator anything but fuel load in mid summer.
60
Consider the floods in Europe. People 62 years old had seen them many times
The bushfires in Australia, California and more. Almost regular. How can these be Climate Change?
But snow in Cairo or Rio? Not in a lifetime. For Cairo 112 years before 2013. So once in a century.
We are starting to see once in century cold events. It’s hardly Global Warming. And what is man made Climate Change without man made Global Warming?
50
Lockdowns will continue every time there’s a case or two, all the while government, health officials and public servants don’t sacrifice a single cent of their income while small businesses bleed money.
140
It is what it is.
30
Many have actually received pay rises since CoViD hit our shores.
30
IT is well deserved with the incredible stress of being forced to do nothing at home with the family. A living hell.
There is no support system and there will be a lot of retirements. At least sick days will be at a minimum and accumulate. The Clean Energy people will be the hardest hit, saving the world from Carbon dioxide but the mid winter heating bills for staying at home will soar and there is no compensation. Lunch time solar will finally have a purpose but will kill the subsidies.
30
My brother who has been living in a Penrith (NSW) suburb for more than four decades told me that they woke up to a white blanket of frost or snow two days ago. A minimum of -4C.
40
That would be frost.
20
Is there any left for them to bleed?
30
Could our planet be flipping or changing its balance?
Our planet has quite the weight imbalances when you take away water to space.
The Sun, it rotates 5 1/4 in our one year of orbit.
My research with velocities modeling works extremely well in using the exhaust from the Sun as the multitudes of friction to hold our atmosphere and friction in making our planet an orb.
When I added more water to our planet, the friction was much less. Take away water and our imbalances become more profound.
Ah but just my own knowledge kicking in place…
Not for political purposes, just wanting to understand our planets mechanism of mechanical motion that keeps our Universe going.
40
If you aren’t already, check with Ben Davidson and his daily news
Youtube.com channel: Suspicious0bservers. He’s into things like rotational speedups etc.
10
https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/videos
https://magneticreversal.org/
10
I watched and listened to Dr V Zharkova’s lecture to the GWPF in 2018 today.
It seems the predicted Grand Solar Minimum has begun: 2020-2050 which covers Solar Cycles 25 (current Solar Cycle from the 2020 Solar Minimum) and cycles 26 & 27.
We may come out of it towards the end of Cycle 27. So it’s a case of update clothing and bedding.
The cooling has begun with frigid air from Antarctica getting around where it will go. (all around the Southern Hemisphere).
Ok: GLobal Warming is over.
It’s Global Cooling.
Global warming may start agoin over SC 27 if it feels like it (2040-2050 or thereabouts)..
You need to read this:
https://electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/
Zharkova’s lecture:
https://electroverse.net/professor-valentina-zharkova-breaks-her-silence-and-confirms-super-grand-solar-minimum/ (2018).
She is confidant in her results.
As for the cooling, these guys are calling it a new mini ice-age:
https://electroverse.net/british-astrophysicists-mini-ice-age-is-accelerating-new-maund
Food supplies are going to become threatened. I think it’s time to lay in a seed supply …
Stand by for high prices.
Enjoy it while it lasts:
https://electroverse.net/the-next-30-years-will-be-cold-says-climate-scientist-dr-willie-soon/
the next 30 years, says Dr Willie Soon …
10
Willie Soon supports nuclear power, boo hiss, and its alarmism to think we are entering a mini ice age.
01
Alarmism?
So what? I call crap crap. You can be alarmed if you really want to.
Say what you like. If we have sense at all (and that’s doubtful) then nuclear is the way to go,
I support nuclear power too: LFTR. When nuclear power is ever mentioned, the first thing that’s thought of is the old dangerous stuff from the 1950s – 1970s. People are right to avoid that.
Liquid Fuel reactors are safe.
– You can’t make bombs from that, wrong chemistry
– No China Syndrome, No meltdown (it’s already molten)
– can burn right down to no radioactivity
– no fule rods. (pun intended)
Get onto You Tube and look for Kirk Sorensen and his videos. He makes a good case.
Get onto the Internet and look for Flibe and Terrestrial Energy (and others).
Get yourself up to date.
30
Nuclear power stations are too expensive to build and totally unnecessary, coal power is our future.
‘ … and what these records indicate is an abrupt increase in Arctic sea ice and cold waters exported to the North Atlantic starting around 1300, peaking in mid-century, and ending abruptly in the late 1300s.’
Actually it began around 1250 and by 1300 sea levels had already fallen substantially. Until we see fierce North Atlantic storms and massive sea floods, we have nothing to alter the scientific paradigm.
00
ROTFL
You’re thinking is still in the past. Of course the OLD technology is too expensive.
Think LFTR. They’re way cheaper.
(see Terrestrial Energy, FLIBE, and others)
20
You maybe correct, can I wait for Fusion Power instead?
00
Some quotable quotes from Dr Mototaka Nakamura, a highly respected Japanese Climate Scientist:
“[The models have] no understanding of cloud formation/forcing.”
“Assumptions are made, then adjustments are made to support a narrative.”
“Our models are mickey-mouse mockeries of the real world.”
Jo, you’re vindicated …
https://electroverse.net/another-climate-scientist-with-impeccable-credentials-breaks-ranks/
70
Yes, the truth eventually comes out but it often takes a very long time. Even then it takes another long period for the people to wake up to it that truth, depending on how our “leaders” react to the truth. So, it’s always a race to the end, and we still won’t know the outcome for some time. Meanwhile our pathetic leader PM Morrison is still pushing ahead his policies to reduce our emissions by way of the only means he currently approves – more renewables, less coal, no nuclear. The other truth of course is if he were truly honest with himself and believed his own BS he would immediately provide funding and start building nuclear power plants. It proves he and many others have no credibility, integrity nor truth. The CAGW is a scam like no other because it’s the biggest of all, at least until the pandemic came about – the jury is still out on that one but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see where it’s possibly heading given his behaviour on that one.
31
‘ … immediately provide funding and start building nuclear power plants.’
That won’t be necessary, nuclear power is banned in Australia.
So what have we learnt from this post. The meandering jetstream is not caused by a buildup in CO2 and Arctic Amplification is bad science, which indicates other forces are in play. Any suggestions as to the possible cause of a meandering jetstream would be greatly appreciated?
13
Quiet sun.
Its is natural for fluids to meander, eg.. look at rivers on flood plain for instance.
eg2… Water trickling down the inside of a shower screen.
It actually takes more energy to keep them going straight.
So, as the Sun is not providing as much energy to the jet stream level, the jet stream gets wobbly.
20
Its my understanding that over a normal solar cycle nothing unusual happens, but a fairly large reduction in sunspots shrinks earth’s atmosphere causing the jetstream to meander.
20
It’s banned in NZ, too. Legislation can be changed …
The dangerous high pressure water cooled reactors which use fuel rods (and their dangerous by-products) need to remain banned.
The modern liquid fuel technology, though, should be adopted.
40
‘Legislation can be changed …’
Yeah, good luck with that. Your time would be better served getting behind coal fired power stations. If we are heading into cooler climes then surely we deserve more CO2 fertiliser, not less.
20
The nuclear option was always going to be used eventually.
What we’ve needed are a few nuclear plants that can be operated to keep us up with the technology and when the cost of hauling huge amounts of coal gets to be too much the gradual switch will be trouble free.
Even with older style operations, nuclear generation is much cheaper than “renewables” in all forms, but still more expensive than coal generation.
Banning nuclear power isn’t smart.
30
The ban on nuclear power is a fait accompli and coal will remain the anchor of our energy system for the foreseeable future. The mooted Kurri Kurri venture of very small coal plants might be the way forward.
00
As far as I can ascertain, Nakamura is still employed at JAMSTEC but I have not found any listing in the staff. He also has reviewed publications. I found this relatively recent one:
https://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/about/press_release/20100910_2/
This is a link showing his publications also to 2013:
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/people/nakamura.php
He is listed as past staff here.
Anyhow is credibility is shot in model world. Maybe he is trying to be on the right side of history when the house of cards comes crumbling down. It will be viewed as one of the greatest hoaxes of all time.
10
“Snowstorm in Africa!” — South Africa Smashes *an additional* 19 All-Time Low Temperature Records over the past 24 hours
Heavy Snows and Freezing Lows Sweep Australia, + Step-up your Preparedness
Grand Solar Minimum: Four South African Towns just set their Coldest Temperatures EVER Recorded
Historic Cold Sweeps Eastern Australia (just as Thredbo Weather Station -the coldest spot in Australia- conveniently goes offline)
Australian’s brace for “Coldest-Ever July Temperatures” as Polar Front brings Snow to Sub-Tropical Queensland
South American Crops Headed for Catastrophe as Antarctic Blasts Persist
A little collection of the past days, found the summary here
60
Hope this doesn’t affect my coffee mornings.
40
I suppose this means
flu seasonsCONVID-19 strains will be more severe. Big Farm must be salivating at the thought of all that extra hundreds of billions of dollars profit.31
Yep.
The new LIA has gotten off to a good start …
30
Jo, bring back the cool futures fund!
10
Not while central banks keep providing governments money to maintain the subsidies – you’re fighting The Fed, The RBA, The BoE…
30
That’s right, we can’t defeat them – they are also outside the law. So, most people will just join them to avoid harsh restrictions that will make the current lockdowns look like freedom.
00
It will end when inflation really gets going. A LOT of things will end at that point – anything sustained by government handouts or surviving by continually rolling over debt.
00
Because cooling didn’t eventuate at the appropriate time, when the PDO returned to neutral status. I’m fairly confident its time to buy, just waiting to see a rerun of the early 1960s.
00
The Jet stream over nNorth Amercia has certainly be acting a bit oddly. Though I didn’t personally think the jets over South America were behaving unusually of late.
Global Jets at 34,000 ft this evening:
https://i.ibb.co/tpcV3Kj/Global-Jetstream-34-K-feet.png
What has been happening is a pronounced dominence of sinking cooler air in associated locked Highs ovr both American continents:
https://i.ibb.co/h1QmrMr/Ground-level-Pressure.png
Which has produced warmth nearer the poles on both continents and coolness towards the tropics and equator.
https://i.ibb.co/fXjj142/Thermal-anoms.png
The thing that is standing-out in a global context is that the only place where ultra-dry stratospheric air is currently falling about to ground level is just to the South and West of the coldest areas in Brazil right now. Which is of course colder air falling on the surface directly under the jetstream flow, and coming down through the Highs.
https://i.ibb.co/86tv1Y5/Ultra-Dry-Air-3-000-ft.png
IMO, the reason why tropospheric pressure systems get locked in place (which is what locks the jets in place) is because the ultra-dry stratospheric air that creates and maintains the Highs and cold core lows only falls out of the stratosphere from certain locations. It is not falling ubiquitously.
And the most curious thing is these preferred areas for ultra dry air to fall out of the Stratosphere to ground level just happens to be over long-term arid and desert areas.
So to my mind now it is a case of which came first?
The Chicken, or the Eggs?
The Deserts, or the long-term locked periodic in-fall of ultra-dry stratospheric air all the way to ground level?
Is that what really causes aridity, deserts, precipitation variability, plus climatic migration with time, such as ITCZ movement? Is this the real reason why forests move? Because a ‘locked’ in-fall of Stratospheric air finally migrates the precipitation patterns? Which also migrates the pressures system, and thus the jet paths migrate with it?
Just look at the East Pacific Equatorial-Jet that formed during January 2020. That formed because the in-fall of stratospheric air to the troposphere accelerated for about 2 years.
That in-fall quantity varies, we’ve just observed that, and this has a radical and sudden transformative effect on the Jetstream flow patterns, which become strongly locked in place.
But what if the ‘locked’ in-fall locations suddenly change, as well?
This question is more interesting to me than any other, after seeing the jetstream flows recent and current behavior.
Because if that locked in-fall pattern migrated over time too, as well as varies in rate, then the planet’s climatic patterns will certainly adjust to that progressive change.
30
At base, the climate system is just one big low pressure cell of rising air on the lit side of the globe and one big high pressure cell of falling air on the unlit side.
Due to rotation, they get broken up into the Hadley, Ferrel and Polar cells in each hemisphere which then give us the various observed climate zones and the jet stream tracks thread between those dominant global cells because that is where the high level temperature differences are greatest.
Irregularities in pressure then produce more mobile and smaller high and low pressure cells beneath the jet stream tracks, mainly in the middle latitudes.
When anything seeks to disturb global thermal equilibrium then the whole system responds to neutralise any such destabilising influence. Wavier jets and/ or climate zone boundary shifts are the process in action and that is what we are seeing.
Any effect from an increase in trace radiative gases would be indiscernible against solar and oceanic natural variability.
In the end, the greenhouse effect is set by atmospheric mass being converted up and down as per the papers created by myself and Philip Mulholland in which we set out our DAET (Dynamic Atmosphere Energy Transport) model.
The wavier jets are a consequence of solar effects on the ozone creation/ destruction balance above equator and poles.
Hence the Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages, Mediaeval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and the recent warmth which now seems to be on the turn.
22
The diurnal bulge.
10
I’m aware of your explanation Stephen, I just didn’t see it reflected in observations. but I have seen observations which your conceptual interpretation does not explain at all, and I have discussed these with you at WUWT.
For a reminder of what was occurring at the time:
https://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/thursday-unthreaded/#comment-2271942
There are hundreds of images like these ones, I don’t even did out the good ones here:
https://i.ibb.co/P9DFKvk/3-Screenshot-2020-02-07-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/0hT0GVX/4-Screenshot-2020-02-07-Windy-as-forecasted-4.jpg
Mapped sinking ultra-dry stratosphere falling to ground level:
https://i.ibb.co/BKQW6jM/Ultra-Dry-Air-2-5k-ft-to-45k-ft-Feb-17th-2020.gif
https://i.ibb.co/DMjb4KT/Zero-Percent-RH-Stratospheric-Air-Intrusion-Mechanism.gif
https://i.ibb.co/bs2hR3P/Sunken-Stratosphere-Observations-ECMWF-12-01-AM-24th-Feb-2020.gif
Equatorial Jet:
https://i.ibb.co/Ydx26zK/1-Equatorial-Jet-FORECAST-on-2nd-Jan-2019-ECMWF-Mosaic.png
https://i.ibb.co/vvJ2dMX/Equatorial-Jets-Geopotential-Pressure-Screenshot-2020-02-18-Windy-as-forecasted.png
https://i.ibb.co/7bd5ZQS/Jetstream-Comparison-North-Hem-to-South-Hem-ECMWF-12-01-AM-24th-Feb-2020.gif
What I’ve seen during the past 2.5 years of observations is not explained by your conceptions, interpretation, or prediction of what the jets should and would do. So with due-respect for you effort, it’s now up to you, to comprehend why this is and how it can be – if you can.
I’m giving that a go, as what else is there to do now once I’ve seen that, above? But I find I can’t get anywhere with understanding how it happened via your conceptions and prior thinking about it, so I’ve had to move past all prior ideas to find what can more adequately explain it.
42
WX,
In strong high pressure cells air from high up does descend to the surface and does so most often in the downward legs of the Hadley, Ferrel and Polar cells.
In descending, it warms up at the dry adiabatic lapse rate due to compression and of course the warmer it gets the lower relative humidity drops.
During periods of change, one would expect to see stronger jets and faster convection both up and down.
Thus, I don’t understand how your observations are inconsistent with what I have been saying.
32
That would be because what you predict, in creasing meridional flows to impart cooling, was the opposite of what I saw during the past 2.5 years, which did coincide with severe cold and record snows right across Northern Africa, the ME, Central Asia (remember Kazakhstan getting burred deep due to continual strong Blizzards in early 2020?), same for Japan last year and this, same for Iceland both years.
There was a zonal mega-jet that stretched 2/3rds of the way around the entire northern hemisphere, and it remained locked in place for about 15 months . The jets got ~25% stronger than their prior record speeds, and about 3 to 4 times their normal volume and energy, and they moved closer to the equator, became vertically oscillating as well, and became very aggressive. On top of this, the southern hemisphere’s summer jets were just as accelerated and swollen as the northern hemisphere’s extremely agitated winter speeds and flow behavior, and I showed clear evidence of this, in here and at WUWT, several times.
These things happened, I have the images of it, and they are as counter to your expectations as they could possibly be. What you supposed would occur and the observations of what did occur were so starkly at odds they can not be reconciled, which means moving on to examine other mechanisms and to understand what the jetstreams actually do.
And this is all without even considering the staggering reality of the formation of an equatorial jet in the central and Eastern Pacific as the two sub-tropical flows edged closer to the equator as they swelled up and accelerated with the increasing rate of sinking ultra dry air from the stratosphere. And that ultra dry air was not coming from the circum-polar plow region, it was coming out under the jets, and most of it was falling into the tropics.
I thought about your conceptions when this process began, but after about 5 to 6 weeks of watching it, it was completely clear that this was novel and that Earth has its own unknown ways of operating the jetstream, and that no one’s ideas are consistent with what occurred after late Nov 2019 and into Jan and Feb 2020. The Earth does not share you views on how the jetstream works. It has nothing to do with you or me. We just need to consider the situation from entirely new processes from here.
As far as I’m concerned one of the central questions is how did a zonal jet 2/3 the diameter of the planet remain locked in the same place for ~15 months?
And how did an eastern pacific equatorial jet form and lock in place for about the same length of time. This was a locked circum-global structure.
The Earth just showed us something spectacular and different to anything seen or expected before regarding jetstream structures and flows, plus variability. I’m just not going to expend time considering concepts which didn’t fit with any of it.
10
Hi WX,
I’ve read a fair bit of your comments here but really can’t find the point that you are making.
Stephen’s first paragraph above is the place we start from. Following that, we must acknowledge that the whole system unconstrained and can only be described in general terms.
You’ve referred to a lot of satellite pics which I haven’t looked at; they show a top view but don’t give any picture of depth.
Could you explain what you are saying.
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In short, Stephen Wilde predicts delivery of increased cooling via increasing N-S meandering and meridional flow of the jetstream, creating increased polar outbreaks to southern tropical regions.
But in reality, the observations of the past 2.5 years of extraordinary excited jet flow, showed that record cold and record snowfall was delivered via the exactly opposite mechanism, of E-W jet flows, that were very strongly zonal, not meandering almost at all, except over the North Atlantic where the strongest jets emerged. These jets were ~25% above normal maximum accelerated jet speeds, and much deeper jets that reached almost to ground level, or actually to ground level. The jets swelled 2 to 3 times in volume above normal, and as the speeds accelerated they also migrated closer to the equator, and then strongly locked in place, became almost completely immobile for ~15 months, And as they moved closer to the Equator they also combined over the equator to create an equatorial jet flow in the East Pacific, and also the central tropical Atlantic, with an almost circum-global jet from the central Atlantic, across North Africa, across the ME, across central Asia (causing massive repeated blizzards and record cold in all three regions, much closer to the equator than normal), and then record snows and cold in Japan and also in the North Atlantic in Iceland with severe winter storms striking the UK and Western Europe.
This all occurred via the jets doing the exact opposite of what Stephen had supposed they would, so it’s clear his conception is not proven, adn not even needed to getting much cooler temps and much higher snowfall and repeated blizzards occurring closer to the equator than they normal do. A locked almost circum-global ZONAL jet did all of the necessary things for global cooling and glacial accumulation instead.
Stephen’s conceptions may seem superficially logical, but the Earth behaves in a completely opposite way, to achieve the same thing he was looking for – cooling and severe winter, but sans polar outbreak! The ascend blizzard energy came from ultra dry air falling into the troposphere from the Stratosphere which increased all mid latitude pressure gradients, which dramatically increased the scale and speed of the jetstream and made it go ZONAL. And the Zonal jet was locked in place because the in-fall points from the Stratosphere were locked in place above it.
So the question now is what locked this ultra dry in-falling stratospheric air in place, which locked the Highs and lows in place, which locked the swelled accelerated jets in place?
Answer that and we’ll understand a lot more about the atmosphere, and the decadal global warming/cooling cycles, and probably about the climate adjustment process as well.
As far as I can see the only likely candidate for locking the in-falling stratospheric air in place will be the geomagnetic field arrangement. And I suspect a quiet sun is what allows the geomagnetic field to accentuate the location and the rate of stratospheric air in-fall.
So for me there’s little to no point in persisting with Stephen’s meridional jet flow conception, when the Earth does this via a completely counter-intuitive mechanism, but it is totally effective using just swollen deeper zonal jets, to accentuate winter variability closer to the equator.
Because if that accelerated stratospheric in-fall stayed locked in place for a few several centuries (with periods when it was not there also, so increased variability, and not just cooling), you would certainly get a “Little Ice Age” develop.
So the question for me is, is this what creates a “Big Ice Age”, too?
Because its now totally clear that polar outbreaks to unnecessary for it to occur. Yes, there will be some, maybe, but they would not be the driver, if sinking lower stratospheric air is the mechanism driving jetstream locations, energy level and behavior. And there can be no doubt now that that is what amplifies the jet stream.
So is it also a quieter solar wind flow past Earth and a cooled shrunken atmosphere which allows geomagnetism to promote increased rates of ‘locked’ stratospheric air in-fall locations into the lower-most troposphere, which increases variability that has a net cooling and much snowier trend? Will that also bring cooler summers in the tropics, as just occurred in the USA and Brazil, which allows snow fall to increase (even in summer in South America as occurred in Jan and Feb this year!) and for glaciers to net grow in volume?
Faster swollen locked zonal jets closer to the equator appears to be all that’s required to get rapid snow and glacial growth over northern central Asia. And that’s one of the key locations where great glaciers on land will form first during the next glacial.
So I’m not much interested in polar outbreaks from meridional jet flows as global cooling theory any longer.
There are much more important questions to consider now, such as to understand and identify what really locks the in-falling stratospheric air into place, which then locks the major tropospheric circulation patterns into place, for literally more than a year, which manages to create the novel equatorial jet from combining both the northern and Southern sub-tropical jet flows as they re-adjust equatorward due to the increased rate of ultra-dry stratospheric air in-falling?
Stephens Ozone and meridional jet flow conceptions can’t address any of this, because they are the exact opposite of the observations of the past 2.5 years which created the record cold and excessive seasonal snowfalls.
And “climate models” will be worse than useless if they’ve omitted this critical mechanical input to the troposphere, from the lower stratosphere, and also if it’s geomagnetic in origin, and if it’s linked to solar wind and solar magnetic activity level. Which stratospheric in-fall acceleration was coincident with. Cause, or coincidence? Only if we pay attention via observation of Earth and Sun, in-falling ultra dry air, and locked zonal jetstream flows, during solar quiet, will that become clear.
The most important thing is to be aware that this happened, that the jetstream behaved completely differently to what was supposed, even 2.5 years ago. But humans have the attention-span of a gnat and are propelled by meme, as thought habit, and can’t easily or quickly move away from those accustomed habits, even when the observations clearly show us otherwise.
I accept most people will not pay attention, nor understand it, nor ask the questions, and will just fall back to well-worn paths of cognitive habit and meme.
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Thanks for that.
Complex, you seem to have given it a lot of time.
You would have to assume that any cold air up top is only going to move sideways and then down after it’s been pushed aside by a parcel of rising warmed air.
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‘I didn’t personally think the jets over South America were behaving unusually of late.’
There has been a return to more zonal flow in the SH winter.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=0
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Pat Michaels explains that when it comes to the jet stream, the climate gang haven’t got a clue as to what should be happening because of gerbil warming.
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Whoops, forgot link:
https://www.cato.org/commentary/current-wisdom-arctic-warming-making-us-miserable
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Roy Spencer has the TLT a tad warmer in July than June:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2021_v6.jpg
Australia must be warm up north. It is certainly not warm down south.
http://www.drroyspencer.com
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‘Australia just had its fourth warmest July on record with above-average temperatures in all states and territories.’
They left out the ACT because it may have gone against their meme. Nevertheless, how do we explain this warm anomaly?
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It is warm up here Rick, this is easily the warmest winter in NQ I’ve ever experienced, it’s not even close to any prior year. It’s warm beyond all expectation. I spent most of July sleeping under one sheet with the fan on full (which never happens in winter), and the days felt like humid mid to late Spring days. There’s some colder weather coming to NQ in a few days, but there’s been no real cold here so far. The seasonal flow is preventing cold getting this far north, but it’s bringing down humidity from the north instead. Really no winter this year, it’s genuinely extreme warmth. So the temp variability N to S across Australia has clearly been very high.
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Really? There are heat sinks and cold sinks occurring all around the Globe, and that will happen for ever and ever (Amen). How about ignoring these extremes, and concentrating on long-term trends, which are mainly dependent on the Sun and the Oceans (and will be, for ever and ever, no matter how much humans try to influence climate)??
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