So much for the Clean Green Chinese Machine
Green paint for Chairman Mao. ...by Daderot
China is holding a busted flush in the Global Green Poker game. In late summer, local bureaucrats in two-thirds of China’s provinces started enforcing power-saving measures on companies, but after four weeks of rolling blackouts the middle kingdom is so desperate for coal it can’t keep pretending to be Green. The Rust Belt factories were grinding down, homes were even losing power, winter is knocking at the door and the only thing with fuel in China were the prices. It’s the worst energy crisis in a decade, and there’s no holding out for another three weeks to fool the rest of the world into thinking it cares about “carbon”.
Instead a national communist committee called the China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has apparently ordered mines to go all out — and they are. The word is that China is now digging up nearly 12 million tons of coal each and every day. If they keep this up it will be a “One Billion Ton” quarter, and potentially nearly a 4-billion-ton year. That’s about 8 times Australias entire annual production and about six times the US’s.
It could have happened to a nicer government:
China’s desperate race to resolve its energy crisis
Japan Times:
“China could see its worst winter power shortage since 2010,” said Citigroup analyst Tracy Liao. “This would increase stagflation risks and growth pressure on the Chinese and the global economy over the coming winter, push energy prices higher and propel large-scale curtailments in commodity downstream sectors.”
It’s hard to overstate the squeeze on supply. Senior managers from State Power Investment Corp., one of the country’s largest power firms, and representatives from southern Guizhou province met late last month with key coal supplier China Shenhua Energy Co. A request for 3 million tons of the fuel ended with an agreement for only an additional 30,000 tons. The miner simply couldn’t guarantee production would rise enough to offer more.
The lurch to burn more coal comes despite President Xi Jinping’s commitment to reduce China’s consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel from 2026. The nation was the only major polluter to record higher emissions in 2020 than a year earlier, and that annual volume is expected to rise again. It’s an awkward reality with global climate talks scheduled to open in the coming days.
Things are so bad China is buying electricity from North Korea, Russia, Myanmar in bid to ease power crisis
China is paying a price for smiting Australia through its coal exports.
China Launches ‘All-Out’ Coal Production Campaign
Breitbart
… Indonesia is now China’s biggest overseas coal supplier and last months’ shipments hit a record of 21 million tonnes. Indonesia’s coal is lower-grade and worse for the environment to boot.
China turned to Indonesia after coal from Australia was banned last year during Beijing’s ugly coronavirus feud with Canberra. China planned to make up for the shortfall by extracting more coal from Mongolia, but the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic hammered the Mongolian coal industry, leaving frustrated delivery drivers stranded in refugee camps without pay.
One enterprising Australian supplier, Coronado Global Resources Inc, got around the ban by selling coal from its mines in the United States to China. The Chinese are hungry enough for coal to play along.
h/t Scott of the Pacific
Imagine if it gets cold suddenly?
Real hockeysticks….
Imagine if it gets cold suddenly?
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The reason China and most “developing” nations signed the Paris Accord was because they were excused from reducing carbon dioxide emissions; plus, many developing nations expected to receive massive amounts of money.
330
I wouldnt be surprised if the coal is being used to build stuff for the expected war over Taiwan…
151
“I wouldnt be surprised if the coal is being used to build stuff for the expected war over Taiwan…”
Probably not. It is far more likely political to prevent discontent amongst the masses to ensure a constant power supply and sufficient heating during the coming winter.
126
Mr. Ian: You don’t think the CCP is trying to keep lids on discontented masses AND prepare to take out discontent in it’s island province at the same time? You appear to have a low opinion of the Chinese people, they can’t do two things? What sort of fool posts such bigotry?
11
Yes, all of this green nonsense is the result of third world greed coveting wealth they did not earn as a result of corruption and the oppressive policies they have imposed on their own citizens.
41
“Chinese authorities went on to explain that “energy security” is the basis for a “modern energy system,” and that, given the plentiful abundance of coal in China, “it is important to optimize” its use while intensifying domestic oil and gas exploration. In other words, the world can pound sand, we have a nation to rule.”
https://thefederalist.com/2021/10/18/while-western-nations-kill-energy-china-builds-coal-plants-by-the-dozen/
290
It’s embarrassing to have China the only nation in the world willing to state the obvious and so succinctly. It’s even more embarrassing that the Democracies, possibly facing armageddon from inadequate fossil fuel reserves in the face of winter, have trapped themselves in their ideological drive against fossil fuels. Still they deny the same fact, expressed by China, that fossil fuels are essential basis of the wealth and all else of their societies.
Our leaders lack the stomach now to front up and confront the climate activists they have so empowered over our societies. Our leaders declared ‘the science is in’ in defiance of traditional scientific method. Our leaders are responsible for being so craven as to fall into this activist climate trap. Anything for a quiet life and a vote.
That same weakeness now has them too embarrassed to declare they are wrong; always have been. Our societies are to get increasingly hammered to save political face and head to pauperage (if there is such a word). We are told, by activists, that we have to expect lower standards of living. Our politicians must agree because nobody seems to be coming forth to deny that obvious fact that will befall us if they continue chasing climate rats down drainpipes and head for zero net emissions by 2050. Agree to that and next meeting it will be ‘by 2035’.
Christine Lagarde states we will eventually own nothing, have no worries, because people like she will be looking after all the people of the (Western -never China, India nor Russia) world. This was an explicit expose that the intention of the EU elites with what is happening now is to convert the West to something similar to Chinese Communism. The self-centred naivety, or worse, of our leaders is unbelievable.
170
Didn’t I read lately that the current world temp is lower than it was in 1980? I don’t think I dreamt it.
50
Why are they worried? I thought the temperatures have been getting warmer. Winter should be equivalent to spring right now.
350
The coldest winter recorded is about to hit the EU and USA, the northern hemisphere’s only saviour being a massive firestorm by Sol or a reliable power supply.
Sol is not pleased. Bottom of the solar minimum has just passed. Fireballs, Earthquakes, Volcanic eruptions, Floods, Ice all coming to a COP Conference near YOU.
All predicted by a janitor for a university long forgotten.
The folly of BIG guv corruption and GREED is going to put our planet’s peoples at risk.
Thousands will freeze to death.
If only they printed actual notes, at least they could be burnt to provide heat.
170
The AO and NAO are both negative.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
70
Geoff Corker,
I agree. CAGW the lie/the ‘paradigm’, had legs, because the planet had warmed and because we were told green scams work and the only problem has a lack of ‘will’, as opposed to a plan that cannot work and will bankrupt our countries.
The sudden fast change to a Cold/wet stormy (high winds) climate is going to change the narrative.
There is now, the start of extreme rainfall, on the US/Canadian west coast. There are now three Pacific systems which are predicted produce a winter of rainfall, to the American and Canadian west coast over about a week. This storms will keep coming and will year after year, produce an advance of the mountain glaciers, same as has happened before.
High levels of GCR produces a change in the ionosphere which causes cyclones in the winter, fall, and spring. The same phenomena (cyclones) happens over regions where there has been a drop in the strength of the earth’s magnetic field. This explains the start of cyclones in Southern, South America where the geomagnetic field strength (Southern Geomagnetic Field anomaly) is 1/3 as strong as it should be at that latitude.
The same pattern (trains of storms and repeat of storm patterns and cold blobs that move into the US causing massive ice storms in the Southern states and city stopping blizzards (high snowfall with hurricane level winds) in the eastern Northern US states) happened in the 1970s in North America. In response to the global cooling that occurred, some climate scientists, predicted that cooling would lead to an ice age if we did not stop, burning high sulphur coal. Very cold and very wet, and a great deal of snow.
This time is different because the sun has changed (the sun is now producing tiny sunspots ‘pores’ rather than large long lived sunspots) to a Maunder minimum.
Extreme record cold is coming due to a very recent change in the number and location of coronal holes on the Sun. Large regions (Canada, Northern US States, and Russia) are all predicted to be covered in deep snow, this winter/early spring. Snow amplifies winter in North America and in Asia. This pattern of extreme snowfall and wet/cold cloudy springs and falls/late frosts/early frosts, is the same that occurred in the past during deep solar minimums.
And in the past there has crop failures in Russia and Canada … which resulted in world food shortages. This time will be worst because most of the world believes that there will be global warming, not cooling. All of money has gone it building green scams. The regular appearance of storms, in the UK/Northern Europe that have hurricane like high winds will likely result in massive damage of the wind turbines. These are not one in hundred year storms. These are storms that super strong because the solar change.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
“….The population of Iceland fell by half, but this was perhaps caused by fluorosis after the eruption of the volcano Laki in 1783.[20] Iceland also suffered failures of cereal crops, and people moved away from a grain-based diet.[21] The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and vanished (by the early 15th century), as crops failed and livestock ….
…. Hubert Lamb said that in many years, “snowfall was much heavier … ….Crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, although this may have been before the LIA proper).[25]
According to Elizabeth Ewan and Janay Nugent, “Famines in France 1693–94, Norway 1695–96 and Sweden 1696–97 claimed roughly 10% of the population of each country. In Estonia and Finland in 1696–97, losses have been estimated at a fifth and a third of the national populations, respectively.”[26] Viticulture disappeared from some northern regions. Violent storms caused serious flooding and loss of life. Some of these resulted in permanent loss of large areas of land from the Danish, German and Dutch coasts.[24]”
The primary source of ions in the atmosphere is high speed protons (GCR… Called Galactic Cosmic ‘Rays’ GCR). In the last 25 years… These ions where removed from the atmosphere by solar wind bursts, from solar coronal holes.
The coronal holes on the sun started to appear at all times during the solar cycle. And appeared in large numbers at low latitude and during the solar minimums.
The solar wind bursts from coronal holes creates a space charge differential in the atmosphere which removes ions from specific locations on the earth. This was proved by studying where the cloud changes occurred and what has happening to the solar wind. Solar wind bursts remove ions and hence therefore inhibit/stop the normal increase in cloud cover that normally occurs when the solar magnetic cycle is weak which produces a weak solar heliosphere.
Based on specific analysis of cloud cover. Cloud cover was highly correlate with the the amount of GCR that was striking the earth up until 1997. In 1997 suddenly there was a drop in cloud cover even though GCR was high. This drop has caused by the sudden appearance of coronal holes at low latitude regions where they effect the climate of the earth.
The second way the sun blocks GCR is with the solar heliosphere which is the name for the pieces of magnetic field which are carried off of the sun in the solar wind to from a bubble about the solar system that extends past Pluto.
50
if it get cold suddenly , “iceball earth” will require the same cash flows from the same people to the same people…..
‘we have always been at war with climate….’
People my age remember when the fear was the next ice age….what goes around comes around.
340
Yep. The 70’s ‘coming Ice Age’ with 4billion people on the planet and expected to be starving.
You gotta give it to the activists; they are quick learners and were ready to go when the planet warmed a bit.
70
enemy of chinese people is their big government
ditto for every nation.
220
All the “net zero” promises by gullible, stupid western countries, will not make even a tiny dent on this CO2 output from China.
280
‘China digging up 12 million tonnes of caol per day’ that’s a hell of a lot of coal one has to say. A rail wagon holds say 80 – 100 tonnes so that equates to 130,000 wagons per day . .
(Nearly 4 billion tonnes per year) Density of coal varies but say at 1.2 tonmes/m3 then thats a void of say 1000m wide × 10m deep x 300km !! Astounding . .
Is that really sustainable? What’s going on, are they eating the stuff ?!
GeoffW
100
Strange but true.
That figure sounds extreme but is apparently correct.
According to even Leftist and China oriented Wikipedia China in 2020 produced 3.84 billion tonnes of coal and then there’s imports on top of that.
Just the domestic production amounts to 10.5 million tonnes PER DAY.
These are extraordinary figures.
And the Left remain silent while committing to complete economic destruction of the West.
Next time you meet a Leftist, asking them whose side They are really on and what is their objective.
330
David, if you look at it another way, China has ~1.5b people. The CCP is mainly worried they will get obstreperous. Winter in China is harsh and has the potential to cause a flare up if heating becomes very inadequate. In such a situation, if I was Mr Xi I think I would like some increased global warming to help keep the people quiet.
80
Net-zero during this century is a given for China. Their current coal reserves are 150bn tonne and they are consuming it at around 4bn tonne per year. They will continue to import coal and they will likely continue to find more coal but I doubt they will get into the next century on the back of coal.
It is a compelling problem and there is really only one partial solution – nuclear power. Which is where they are now developing expertise. But anything China consumes will add significant global demand. Australia has about 20% of global uranium reserves. The coal equivalent is about 32bn tonne so all of Australia’s known uranium would add 8 years to China’s energy supply.
Thorium has potential to dramatically extend the lifetime of energy supply. But there is no one exploiting thorium commercially as far as I know so it has to be about 30 years away before it is a significant factor.
Then there is fusion power – it may remain hopium on Earth.
Zero carbon is inevitable and time is running out ti find an alternative.
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RickWill, they are the “world’s biggest carbon polluters” (sic) and need to stop immediately.
Let them build more windmills and solar panels.
Apply the same standards as are applied to the West.
Why the endless apologetics for the Chicomms?
121
The standard applied in the West relies on China making stuff for the West. There is only ONE China so the western standard cannot be applied to China as there is no one else able to build stuff.
How do think the UK gets away with its claims that they have reduced carbon 50% from 2000 level. It is only possible by getting all those wind generators adorning ocean and hilltop views made in China – or at least the bulk of the materials uses in them. As they wear out they will alll need to be replaced using generators made in China with Australian iron ore and coal – a virtuous circle that allows UK to make wild claims while sending their money to Australia via China.
Most people believe stuff comes from China. They do not realise that a lot of that suff relies on Australian exports. If Australia stops exporting then there will be much less stuff available from China.
40
Rick is yet to realise the great Chinese con. Wait till the rest of the world destroy their own manufacturing industries by abandoning cheap, reliable energy, then claim you are the saviour and therefore must be allowed to continue using that cheap, reliable energy.
The scam survives due to apologists like Rick.
10
No one is apologising for China. They are simply smarter than us and you have to accept that. They have demonstrated so by their clever tactic of manipulating the global warming mantra to suit their needs . . ‘biggest carbon polluters’ are helping the planet to grow . .
GeoffW
60
They aren’t and I don’t. If they were smart they would develop their own technology not steal it.
Stealing is dumb. They end up with orphan industries without solid foundations. The great eyeopener is Huawei which has big problems without a domestic sand to microprocessor industry to support it. A year ago I would have laughed at that suggestion, now, not so much.
R&D is expensive so why would any Chinese company undertake it without sound copyright protection? Domestic intellectual rights are no better protected than international ones.
I made no comment on the individual IQ levels which are high.
31
David, energy starvation is deprivation in the west [in the short term anyway] but in Asia it is literal starvation.
I just checked out windy.com. OK it just a snapshot but in Asia where a couple of billions live there just isn’t any wind.
https://www.windy.com/?19.580,112.085,4,i:pressure,m:epDajpN
These billions are NOT going to volunteer to starve so we in the west can live the life we are accustomed to so best you/we learn to live with them, not give them ultimatums.
60
Should have added that we should not allow them to give us ultimatums either, just in case you think I’ve been blue pilled.
50
This is exactly what the Left want, for Australia to stop exporting coal.
Exporting rocks (coal, iron ore, bauxite because Australia’s electricity is now too expensive to make aluminium without taxpayer subsidy) etc. is now one of Australia’s few income producers.
Presumably with no export income Leftists think the Government can just jeep borrowing or printing more money indefinitely.
They have already done this with brown coal exports to India from Vicdanistan. The Vicdanistani government decided to cancel a major coal export order (and likely follow on orders) from India, for the good of India and the planet of course. The government and their moron advisors thought brown coal generated more “carbon pollution” (sic) than other coal but didn’t understand why this apparent characteristic was due to moisture in the coal.
Now the Australian Government and the morons who advise it are committing themselves to the science fiction fantasy of “green hydrogen”. Hydrogen is produced by a well established process of converting coal to hydrogen and the resultant CO2 is to be sequestered, forever, in Australia while the hydrogen “miracle fuel” will be exported.
This is one of the reasons why the Left are at war against science. They don’t want anyone to know that the whole process would be less efficient, by far, than just burning the coal directly in the first place.
300
In addition, the Australian Government almost always picks losers.
Carbon dioxide sequestration (what the scientifically illiterate Left call “carbon sequestration”) has been proven time and time again to be a non-viable process and no one does it on an industrial scale.
So, of course, this useless technology is a natural choice for Australia.
Also, for the process of direct coal combustion, the CO2 from that, when liquefied, occupies twice the original volume of coal. Where is it all going to go?
170
I dunno really. Are we actually doing CCS on a commercial basis? It sounds like Green Hydrogen. Angus Taylor is giving money to CSIRO etc to research all these type of projects. He makes a big song and dance about it, CSIRO are happy because they have funding for the next 5 years. Makes the government look green and they’ll hope (stupidly) to attract lefty votes at the next election.
50
Chevron are attempting to implement CCS up north in WA, but so far it hasn’t been very successful.
10
In Morrison’s case it’s the story of doing something that counts; not the end result.
To speak of sequestration it looks as though one is actually trying to fight global warming, and that’s what keeps the activists quiet. It’s a bit like burning up pipes for geothermal heat mining; doesn’t really matter if the pipes can’t stand the conditions. It’s the ability to tell the story that counts.
40
Yes; CCS is a pointless nonsense in terms of “saving the planet” but if Slomo can talk about it for the price of funding the CSIRO a bit it may save enormous trouble in future trade embargoes.
It’s not honest but politics is an idiotic game.
I’d still prefer him to stand up and tell them all to get lost.
50
Angus Taylor to rebuff UK and US demands to phase out coal-fired power stations
Energy Minister Angus Taylor will reject calls by Britain and the US to phase out all coal-fired power generation by 2030, declaring he would not sign up to Glasgow climate change agreements and targets that negatively impact miners, manufacturers and farmers.
Ahead of travelling to the UN climate change conference next week, Mr Taylor told The Weekend Australian the Morrison government would not agree to commitments that would jeopardise “affordable and reliable” power.
With Britain’s COP26 president, Alok Sharma, expected to pressure Australia and other nations to phase out domestic coal power generation by the end of the decade, Mr Taylor said he would “stand up for the Australian way”.
“We won’t be doing anything that wipes out our traditional industries or threatens our electricity grid. We will be continuing to reduce emissions but we’re not going to wipe out industries in the process,” Mr Taylor said.
“I‘ll enjoy, and am looking forward to, proudly explaining to international colleagues the right way to go about this when you’re a country like Australia.”
Mr Taylor said “you can’t trade off prosperity and emissions reduction”.
“Whether it’s within Australia or across the world. The way to reduce emissions is to have low-emissions technologies that strengthen your economy, not weaken them. And that’s as true in developing Asia as it is in Australia,” he said.
“We’ll do this the Australian way, in a way that’s in Australia’s interest. That does mean bringing down emissions but it doesn’t mean damaging those traditional industries agriculture, heavy manufacturing and resources or our energy supply.
“We‘ll be talking Australia’s track record, 20 per cent emissions reduction over the past 15 years, in the same time that China’s emissions have increased by over 70 per cent.”
270
I surely hope and pray he can do that.
80
Looks like Taylor and Morrison are going to play good cop, bad cop at Glasgow. Not sure how Turnbull fits into all of that? He will be the Al Gore wannabe wondering around like the mad cat lady, trying to spruik investment funds for his family companies.
70
Oops, Boris Johnson Told the Truth About Climate
Voters are still in the dark about what they have to do to cut emissions. Finally a politician is telling them.
If Prime Minister Boris Johnson didn’t appear to believe so sincerely in the virtues of tackling climate change, you’d assume he was trying to sabotage the crusade against carbon-dioxide emissions. The bold plan he released this week for the U.K. to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 breaks the cardinal rule of climate activism: Never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, tell the public in one go how much they’ll have to pay and how much of their ordinary lives they’ll have to change to rein in emissions.
It’s not so much that this program is quantitatively different from climate-action agendas that other governments have implemented over the years. The British government admits it doesn’t know how much it will spend on the wide range of greenhouse-gas mitigations it proposes. But then neither does anyone else. No one has managed to total Germany’s spending on its long-running energy transition, although one credible guess pegged it at €120 billion for merely the five years leading up to 2018. U.S. Democrats resisted putting a price tag on their climate fever dream, the Green New Deal.
Rather, Mr. Johnson’s plan is qualitatively distinctive in foisting substantial changes on the section of the energy market voters notice most: the proverbial last mile between the national energy system and households.
The centerpiece of his plan is a program to replace home heating systems en masse, pushing homeowners to abandon gas-fired boilers in favor of green heat pumps with some subsidy but at considerable personal expense. There’s also a vague plan to tie preferential mortgage rates to green home improvements, and dozens of other promises (or threats) such as to increase the average occupancy per vehicle on British roads, presumably by encouraging more carpooling or use of buses and the like.
A companion fiscal report from the British Treasury, meanwhile, explains in greater detail than anyone has before exactly how taxation will change in a green economy. Around £37 billion a year will have to be found to replace the fuel taxes that electric-car drivers no longer will pay. That amounts to roughly 1.5% of U.K. gross domestic product a year in lost revenue by the 2040s. This means either cuts on other spending items or alternative taxes such as road-usage charges.
Talk about an experiment. The great unknown in climate debates has always been exactly how much voters are willing to bear in pursuit of reduced greenhouse-gas emissions. Mr. Johnson seems determined to force an answer.
Voters at least in some places—think blue states in America—will tolerate expenditures of abstractly large quantities of taxpayer money to subsidize green energy production. Others in different places will grumble but bear a relatively modest additional amount tacked onto their household energy bills. And a fair number everywhere are willing to adopt modest behavior changes that have as much to do with virtue signaling as with the climate, such as buying more-efficient lightbulbs.
The political Rubicon has been asking households to do things that would make a bigger difference to carbon emissions but also would prove far more disruptive to daily life and the household budget. The transition to electric vehicles has been tackled gingerly, with carrots instead of sticks—generous tax incentives to buy a Tesla, rather than the sort of heavier fuel taxation that triggered the gilets jaunes protests in France when Emmanuel Macron was foolish enough to try it. Governments have tacked small levies onto household fuel bills to fund green priorities, but stopped short of meddling in the sort of heating unit a household might buy.
One consequence is that voters seem to have startlingly little idea about what they will have to do if they want to reduce their emissions. A recent YouGov survey is suggestive: British households understand they should walk or cycle instead of driving, although this isn’t actionable advice if you live outside an urban area. But they overestimate the carbon reductions they can achieve by shifting to an electric vehicle, and underestimate the reductions if they took a bus instead.
They wildly overestimate the carbon benefits of abandoning plastics, and underestimate the relative impact of Britons’ penchant for jetting off on vacations abroad. They also underestimate the carbon gains to be had from reducing the number of children per family—quite possibly because the idea of sacrificing one’s family, literally, for the climate is so preposterous it rarely features in these debates.
These perceptions have persisted because up to now politicians have been highly effective at creating the impression among voters that environmentalism is something someone somewhere else in the economy does. Mr. Johnson is starting to disabuse Britons of that notion with this week’s plan, and he may well discover there’s a reason few others have been willing to try.
230
A typical example of the over-reliance on wind is just now happening in the UK, the electricity generated from wind has fallen from 12 GW down to 1.77 GW in the space of 4 hours.
Also the wind is also forecast to have a number of ‘dry’ periods in Glasgow during the COP 26 talks.
Just as well they have diesel generator organised to charge the EVs the delegates are using.
170
JOHN HUMPHRYS: My heat pump has me left in the cold… but I’m VERY hot and bothered about the PM’s eco-jollity
He told us this week that if we are to meet the Government’s targets for reducing carbon emissions we must abandon our gas boilers and install heat pumps. Well, I was ahead of the game.
The conditions were ideal. We were rebuilding the house from scratch so we laid the underfloor piping before the floors went down.
The walls were stone, but strict building regulations meant our insulation was state of the art.
And better still, the field behind the house was perfect for laying the pipes needed for a ground source system, which is far more efficient than the air source alternative that has to be used in the vast majority of homes in towns and cities.
It cost a small fortune, but it was worth it. I was helping to save the planet and saving myself the cost of buying nasty, polluting oil.
The perfect win-win, I told myself. A toasty house whatever the weather and a minuscule energy bill.
But I was wrong. For a start I had not allowed for the electricity needed to run the pump.
Not a big problem because I’d also installed an array of solar panels. But you can’t do that in a small semi or a flat.
The real killer was that it didn’t do its job. I have not ended up with a toasty house in mid-winter.
If my lovely neighbour switches it on a couple of days before I arrive, it takes the chill off the downstairs rooms. But that’s about it.
To get really warm, I have to fire up the log-burning stove. Again, not exactly an option in your typical suburban semi.
The sad reality is I’ve spent a small fortune and have not ended up with a cosy house.
And I wonder: how many of us would — or even could — pay at least £10,000 for a heating system to replace our polluting but efficient gas boiler for something that just takes the chill off?
Yes, that’s what it costs. The promise of a £5,000 grant from next April is only for the lucky few. The Government’s own target is 600,000 heat pumps a year.
The handouts will cover just 30,000. And only for three years. Perhaps the tooth fairy will help out.
I jest but this is no laughing matter. The world is facing a real crisis.
It’s true that this country accounts for less than 1 per cent of the carbon that’s wrecking our precious atmosphere. China accounts for 28 per cent and is massively increasing its use of coal to generate power.
60
Suddenly we are seeing real Hockey Stick Graphs and this time they are for gas and coal production and energy use. Meanwhile, in Glasgow, the Eco-Loons will soon be gathering for a Knees-up to celebrate hydrogen and ‘green energy’.
150
Rational thinkers should stop trying to speak common sense and start encouraging the Left to build millions or billions of windmills and enough battery storage in every home and commercial enterprise to last two weeks of mid-winter electricity consumptio.
If something’s worth doing, it’s worth overdoing.
We can’t win, do let’s give ’em what they want.
I’m sure the masses will love paying for it all.
140
According to:
https://sciencing.com/much-land-needed-wind-turbines-12304634.html
taking into account wind disturbance to neighboring windmills you can have 4 megawatts of windmills per square kilometer.
There are 510 million square kilometers of land area on earth so that gives an upper limit of how many windmills it’s possible to have and how much power can be generated if you covered the entire planet with windmills.
81
David:
Have wind turbines suddenly become more efficient? Years ago I calculated 2.6MWh per square kilometre based on figures from Danish wind farms.
30
Sorry, just thought. Did you change from square miles to square kilometres at some point?
00
Graeme, I was just quoting the figure at the link which was determined by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL based on their survey of actual windmill projects. Obviously that’s nameplate capacity so the real figure will be much less.
10
OK, I think I can see the problem. I was working on the land being flat and with a minimum clearance between turbines of 10 blade diameters (although 15 might have been a better figure from later reports about loss of efficiency from turbulence).
They include the output of turbines on ridges, so they occupy a lot less land in front (or after) them.
As an after thought, have these people volunteered to live underneath those turbines?
80
Not quite true – 360E14sq.m of that “land” has quite deep water. Can you imagine the amount of cable needed to just anchor a wind turbine in 7,000m of water.
20
My mistake. I accidentally quoted total surface area.
The land area is 148,939,063 square km so there is even fewer possibilities for windmills.
30
A Greenist friend is a science teacher & loves China.
He wants to go there again when the borders open – to cold North east China.
I’m gunna encourage him to go.
He might see the consequences of his saving the planet policies.
A frozen China !
130
Will he be an official guest of the Chinese Communist Party?
If so, he will be shielded from the reality and only be shown windmills, panda bears, yum cha, nightly feasts and warm and cosy accommodation and his delusions will be fulfilled.
170
That process you describe: sounds like Bidenisation.
40
One way ticket, I hope
00
And that well known softy Vladimir Putin (SARC) is starting to play hard ball with the EU.
Funnily enough the EU and China are running short of RELIABLE, BASELOAD energy after decades of warnings about the TOXIC, LANDFILLING S & W disasters.Every 20 years.
China has been furiously building 100s of coal fired stns for decades and YET they are still finding it difficult to keep the lights on and their people warm?
And winter is coming on fast and soon ( by 2030?) the AMO could change to the COOL PHASE. What then for the NH I wonder?
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1509863/eu-summit-news-energy-crisis-Spain-Czech-Republic-France-gas-prices-latest?mc_cid=84186e2662&mc_eid=dcbe0ef09b
100
Well, he can say “I told you so” (in 2010 on youtube).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBtW9uGjd8U
70
Yes Graeme 3 and Putin certainly has a sharp sense of humour and a lot of laughing from the audience.
BTW I tried to give you a + green tick but the software refused to agree.
20
I would not wanting to be relying on Russia this winter for energy supplies. They have vaccination hesistency that makes US population look pliable. Covid cases and deaths are skyrocketing and they are going back into lockdown. Good luck keeping the economy firing on all three cylinders.
25
The Gore Effect …
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: “By day 3 of the conference arctic air is engulfing the UK.”
https://www.climatedepot.com/2021/10/22/will-gore-effect-nail-the-un-climate-summit-in-glasgow-scotland-cold-air-may-arrive-just-in-time-for-un-meeting/
Get ready to mock the doomsday global warming fools.
151
Global Warming is dead. Has been for at least the last decade. It is now Climate Change and any “bad” weather gets grouped into that catch all.
Once the world stops burning fossil fuels the weather will always be “good”. But until then, humans have to accept the consequence of their evil ways.
A more-or-less seasonal cold spell in Glasgow next week will simply confirm to the COP26 faithful that Climate Change is upon them.
70
Just imagine if a sane, decent person was able to speak at the Glasgow comedy festival next week.
They could use Eschenbach and Christy’s recent studies about the climate over the last 100 years and list all the issues, like SLR, Polar bears, Antarctic, Arctic or Greenland temps today.
Then facts about Coral islands stability or increase in growth or real Hurricanes/ Cyclones data or the fact that DEATHS from extreme weather events have dropped by 95% over the last 100 years.
Then they could mention that droughts and flood deaths are at an all time low since 1930, while Human population has increased by 6 billion since 1920.
To finish they could just show Dr Rosling’s 5 minute BBC video, “200 countries over 200 years” just to try and install another 120,000 data points for the donkeys to THINK about.
I know I’m dreaming and anyway the poor sod (s) would be verbally abused and spat on for their trouble. And poor little Greta would probably pass out and have to be rushed to hospital to recover.
But Dr Christy would be the person to carry this out and when he explained the problems of their so called HOT SPOT I’m sure he would have to run for the nearest exit with a howling mob of L W loonies in close pursuit.
100
They would be accurately labelled heretics. They would likely be stoned or knifed. There are some tough nuts attending who are seeking gifts. It would be a brave soul to stand between those hard nuts from Central Africa and the Pacific Island nations seeking bags of gold.
100
A lot of things in life might lead to different choices if an accurate bill was provided before the service was rendered; or
if a brief simulation of the unintended consequences could be presented.
Another name for this is common sense.
70
With shocking carbon (sic) emissions like China, the world’s largest, if it was a non-communist Western country the Left would be demanding that they immediately cease all emissions.
But because the Chicomms are so beloved of the Left all we get is endless and sickening apologetics as to why they should be able to remain the world’s biggest “carbon polluter” (sic).
31
Germany is getting rid of coal and nuclear power, depends on the next government.
https://notrickszone.com/2021/10/22/german-energy-experts-warn-of-deindustrialization-saving-worlds-climate-from-german-soil-is-illusory/
52
Still lacks the shock and awe of people actually freezing to death. It will happen soon in Europe. Cold is a killer and it lurks through much of Europe.
Summers in Europe are getting warmer BUT winters are getting colder. Think of the armies that have been halted by freezing conditions in Europe over the last 2000+ years. These are nominally fit, able-bodied men brought to their knees by the cold. Much of Europe can be a hostile place in winter.
70
Actually winters in Europe began getting less sunlight from 1585. There is another 12,000 years of winter cooling to come.
40
It would be fantastic for PM Morrison to stop BSing us and support coal fired power stations, for example such as Japan has done. I recall the advertisements show on TV some time ago how great it was that Japan are building so many new HELE plants. Sadly, I don’t see it ever happening here since he is either a coward or a liar. I would be very happy to be proved wrong. So, if he isn’t prepared to change, which party leader is? Have we reached the point again that we desperately need a change of leadership in the LNP, just as was the case with Turnbull? It looks like the answer is a resounding YES! Of course the new leader must be a devout advocate of HELE plants. However, as I stated before, I don’t really care which road we take, coal or nuclear (preferably both). We MUST take one of them at least, and do it ASAP! Any further hold up is definitive proof our leaders, state and federal prefer to see Australia decline. We need a strong national leader who is prepared to put his/her foot down and say enough of this BS about renewables, and if necessary provide massive subsidies to built new HELE and/or nuclear power plants. ENOUGH SAID ALREADY!
110
PeterS:
I think you are wasting your time expecting leadership from within the Liberal Party. Look at the State sections, apart from Tasmania they are in retreat. WA reduced to 2? members, VIC almost invisible as opposition, NSW in coalition only and because the local Laborites were unelectable. In opposition in QLD and likely to stay there, and SA where the Libs are slowly disintegrating with an election coming. They started with at least 2 terms “guaranteed” as Labor had been so awful, and all they had to do was demonstrate some competence. Instead it has been a parade of broken promises, factional in-fighting as the majority WOKE faction tried to dump the conservatives, which ended with enough independents to make them a minority government. Their claims of financial impropriety, which they used as excuses against their ex-members, has come home to bite them with the Deputy Leader facing investigation and charges in the leadup to the next election. In the meantime their “strategy” seems to be making themselves “sitting ducks” for the new Labor Leader who gains favorable media attention.
I am afraid they have passed their Use-by-Date. Their only hope is to persuade voters that Labor would be even more useless.
30
It’s obvious that both major parties are on the decline. The only question is how far and how fast is the decline. We will have to wait for the next federal election to see if we end up with a hung parliament. It matters not to me what the outcome is since Australia has already effectively fallen. It would require a great leader of the calibre of Menzies to rescue us now. Given none are around we just have to suffer a crash and burn scenario in the years to come.
30
Peter, I believe it is worse that what you are saying. We elected a leader in Queensland, Campbell Newman, but the electorate dumped he because he was arrogant and put the useless Anastasia and the ALP rabble back in.
Australians get the leaders they deserve.
10
Indeed. In fact we get the leaders the party elects and the people keep elect the same parties over and over, expecting a different result but never getting it. Most of us know what that’s means by definition.
10
Dr Curry is still trying to understand IPCC AR 6 report compared to AR 5 and she thinks that AR 6 is an improvement. And maths guru Nic Lewis is also checking their findings and will probably have a summary of AR 6 soon.
https://judithcurry.com/2021/10/06/ipcc-ar6-breaking-the-hegemony-of-global-climate-models/
Here’s Judith’s summary of IPCC AR 6.
JC reflections
In the AR5, the emphasis was on the Earth Systems Models, and their ever growing complexity in terms of adding more chemistry and some ice sheet dynamics.
In AR6, these complex climate models are revealed for what they are: very complicated and computationally intensive toys, whose main results are dependent on fast thermodynamic feedback processes (water vapor, lapse rate, clouds) that are determined by subgrid-scale parameterizations and and the inevitable model tuning.
With the very large range of climate sensitivity values provided by the CMIP6 models, we are arguably in a period of negative learning. And this is in spite of the IPCC AR6 substantially reducing the range of ECS from the long-standing 1.5-4.5C to 2.5 to 4C (reminder: I am not buying this reduction on the low end, more on this soon).
So what are we left with?
Global climate models (ESMs) remain an important tool for understanding how the climate system works. However, we have reached the point of diminishing returns on this unless there is more emphasis on improving the simulation of modes of internal climate variability and advancing the treatment of solar indirect effects.
We should abandon ECS as a policy-relevant metric and work on better understanding and evaluation of TCR and TCRE from historical data.
In context of #1, I question whether the CMIP6 ESMs have much use in attribution studies.
ESMs have lost their utility for policy applications. Policy applications are far more usefully achieved with climate emulator models. However, the use of climate emulators distances policy making from a basis in physics. This is particularly relevant for the legal status in various climate lawsuits of 21st century climate projections and the ESMs in various climate lawsuits.
While this is hidden in the Summary for Policy Makers, it is pretty significant:
“A.1.3 The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C. It is likely that well-mixed GHGs contributed a warming of 1.0°C to 2.0°C, other human drivers (principally aerosols) contributed a cooling of 0.0°C to 0.8°C, natural drivers changed global surface temperature by –0.1°C to 0.1°C, and internal variability changed it by –0.2°C to 0.2°C. It is very likely that well-mixed GHGs were the main driver of tropospheric warming since 1979, and extremely likely that human-caused stratospheric ozone depletion was the main driver of cooling of the lower stratosphere between 1979 and the mid-1990s.”
Compare this to the statements in the AR5 SPM:
“It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.”
Overall, the AR6 WG1 report is much better than the AR5, although I remain unimpressed by their increased confidence in a narrower range of ECS.
The bottom line is that the AR6 has broken the hegemony of the global climate models. The large amount of funding supporting these models towards policy objectives just became more difficult to justify.
40
Anyone who thinks CO2 can warm the Earth is in a science free zone. It is utter garbage.
Earth’s oceans are temperature controlled. The surface gets slightly cooler when the sunlight increases as the water cycle speeds and the surface gets slightly warmer when the sunlight reduces as the water cycle slows down. The oceans have been getting less sunlight since 1585 so the the water cycle is slowing down and the oceans warming a little as they retain more heat.
Climate models have the bull by the toes – not even close to what matters.
Every climate model is predicting increased river run-off when the measured data shows it is actually in slow decline in concert with reduced heat input.
80
Appreciated that Rick.
10
Are the Australian people genuinely terrified of carbon (sic) emissions as claimed by the noisy Left?
Remember how nuclear submarines were considered a complete impossibility and then suddenly, unexpectedly, someone in the Government grew a brain, realised it was the only sane thing to do and simply announced we were getting nuclear submarines?
There was complete silence, except from the lunatic Greens. No one cares.
Well maybe if Morrison announced that we were simply going to get out of the Paris Accords as Trump did, it would be no big deal and we could restore the Australian economy with cheap coal and nuclear power.
It’s the only rational thing to do.
150
Please check the justification for Melbourne Planning Scheme Amendment C384 – Inundation Overlays…
They say: “Due to climate change and more intense development, the patterns and intensity of rainfall and therefore possible flooding has changed over the years… In accordance with Melbourne Water’s recommendations of realistic impacts of climate change, the following data was incorporated into the new flood modelling:
The 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood event (a large flood event having a 1% chance of occurring in any given year).
An 18.5% increase in rainfall intensity by the year 2100.”
So months before Draught end they started huge Desalination Plants program but today they know with 0.5% accuracy what will happen to weather in 2100.
I gave up, sane people lost that war.
60
Perhaps the best database for electrical power information was always the U.S. EIA, and they published all their information with a three Month lead time, now two Months.
China information took me a long time to find, eventually tracking it down, and using the information. However, the Chinese then ‘ran up’ their own new database, almost as good as the EIA one in the U.S. It is positively huge, and again, not all that easy to navigate, but at least now it is published in English, so the mindset here might be that the Chinese might perhaps be ‘aiming’ this database at the outside World, and not particularly fussed about secrecy on that front.
Now, far and away the hugest power generating Country on the Planet, they actually publish their data with just a four week lead time, so the data for end of August this latest year (2021) was published around the start of this Month, October.
Now, August is the last of the Summer Months, in the lead in to the benign Months (between (their) Summer and Winter, always Months of much lower power consumption) and even so, the data is interesting to say the least.
Just in that Month, August, the whole of China consumed 761TWH, and for some perspective, Australia (the AEMO coverage area, everywhere East of the WA border) consumes 204TWH, so just in this one Month, China consumed 3.7 times the YEARLY power consumption for Australia.
In the eight Months to August, total power generation shows that just 14.3% of all power is being consumed in the Residential sector, and for comparison, here in our already developed World, around 38% of all the generated power is consumed in the Residential Sector. So in China, industrialisation is where electricity is consumed the most, as was similar in the early post war years in the U.S. up until the late 60s, early 70s.
When it comes to coal fired power, that source currently delivers 71% of all the generated power in China. (with wind and solar power delivering just 9% of all generated power)
New coal fired power plants brought on line just in these last eight Months alone come in at just under 30,000MW, and for some perspective, the TOTAL capacity of Australia’s coal fired FLEET is 23,000MW.
When it comes to Nuclear power generation, the total Capacity for those in China is currently 54,000MW.
To indicate the (perhaps almost exponential) increase in power generation, hence also consumption, the total for these eight Months is an 11% increase (600TWH) when compared to the same time last year 2020, so China has added the equivalent of three Australia’s worth of total power consumption just in the last eight Months.
So often, data is just data, and for an understanding, it needs careful explanation.
As electrical power generation ramps up to cover Industry and Manufacturing, (in exactly the same way as it has done in OUR already developed World post WW2) the by product of that is electricity becomes available to the people in their homes, that Residential sector, and on that point, when I started doing all this back in early 2008, the residential sector in China was only getting 6.5% of all the generated power, and now, as I mentioned above, it’s at 14.3%
Now imagine if China is to reach the same level we are here in Australia, Europe, the U.S. etc, the Developed World, now at around 38%. Imagine how much NEW electrical power is needed to achieve that level of consumption in the residential sector, something we take totally and utterly for granted.
That’s a very VERY long way off.
We can complain all we like about what China is doing with respect to power generation, but without referring it to what we are already doing, it’s all just a little hypocritical really.
We have it. They don’t. It’s a bit rich our moaning about it.
Tony.
170
Tony I agree with you, but how can we change anything? Then add the wealthy OECD countries?
Then you have India ( 1.3 bn +) who today emit just 6.6% of global co2 emissions and then Africa ( 1.37bn) must line up to take its turn at modernizing.
Does anyone not see the problems if these new MASSIVE numbers start to use coal fired energy as well.
And I mean “problems” for the L W urgers and loonies, not for myself or most reasonable people.
OH and African demographers now estimate that the African population will increase to 2.5 billion by 2050.
Perhaps the better education for girls will peg this back a bit, but Africa’s very young average age makes that a very difficult prediction.
Then again how can any group make these future forecasts and then Biden etc tells us we have an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to human life? See also UN SEC GEN telling us we have a CLIMATE CRISIS and then the same UN estimating future estimates of population increase by 2050 and 2100.
And the same UN also tells us everyone will be much healthier and wealthier by 2050 and 2100. See Lomborg’s data.
Actually the rate of population increase has been falling around the world for decades ( not Africa) but they still estimate a global population of about 9 to 10 billion by 2100. Who knows?
50
Yep, all western countries have built their last 100 year wealth on the ability to generate lots of cheap energy. Why wouldn’t the Chinese also want the same thing? They want to move into the cities with all its amenities, live in a nice house or flat with adequate convenient warmth (winter) and cooling for summer. Drive a car and watch NBA on a big flat screen TV.
40
Add to China’s demand the demand from India and Africa as they develop and the scale of the energy problem facing the globe becomes obvious.
To put it all in perspective though, total primary energy consumption by humans each year is 580E18J (161,000TWh – electricity, oil, gas, nuclear and bit players). In December 2019 the sun boiled off a net mass of 10.7Tt of water from the oceans and transferred to land – enough to cover the entire land area with 64mm of water – a lot of it gets dumped in the Amazon forest and northern Australia. That required 24.7E21 joules. So the entire global annual primary energy production is equivalent to just 18 hours of net December ocean evaporation. That is net heat transfer ocean to land, which is a tiny fraction of the solar at the top of the atmosphere.
Human numbers appear big until they get compared to Earth scale.
An interesting aside here is that the average quantity of atmospheric water in December is 21mm. So during December, the entire quantity of the water in the atmosphere gets turned over twice being dumped on land. A lot more water just gets lifted and dropped on the oceans. That is an impressive heat pump.
80
Very good perspective.
50
Read all about ANSTO where research and training continues today and one area of real interest, and note the commentary, is about nuclear power stations;
https://www.ansto.gov.au/research/programs/nuclear-fuel-cycle/advanced-nuclear-reactors
20
Last Thursday
“Peter+Fitzroy
October 21, 2021 at 11:04 am · Reply
Good news – coal is tipped to soar, independent of the posturing at the “climate conference” As an example Great Britain is planning a new mine, with approval to coincide with COP26. Even the Guardian is reporting on the gap between what is being said and what is happening”
/nice to get a hat tip
410
Of course on this site, we have to wait until either Fox or Breitbart tells what to think, or maybe now twitter given it has established its bias as well. Nevertheless the left wing was first. Strange days
016
Sorry that you still feel you need someone to tell you what to think.
Most here can do it for themselves.
80
Fox?
Breitbart?
PLEASE! … so establishment … I get my thinking orders from Alex.
Are you one of the Shenzhen Fitzroys?
21
Interesting Statista chart in this article about countried committing to coal power.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-dare-you-these-countries-are-most-committed-coal
Seems the US and UK have a few others they should lecture about joining their disasters before they get to Australia.
20
Its all been told before.
When will the politicians wake up and face reality !!
https://notrickszone.com/2021/10/22/german-energy-experts-warn-of-deindustrialization-saving-worlds-climate-from-german-soil-is-illusory/
50
There is little to no overlap between a politician’s reality and any objective reality.
Politicians will face their reality when it threatens their climb up their greasy pole.
30
Coming down from his high horse, Premier Xi has to face reality over renewable fantasy.
‘If Beijing wants to manage this crisis without crippling the global economy, it will need to increase its energy imports and even temporarily rethink some emissions control to address domestic shortages. This may mean pumping the breaks on renewables targets to get access to whatever energy is available, regardless of emissions profile.’ (Forbes)
50
Beijing is not worried about anything related to global emissions or renewables. The big problem is the over-reliance on property prices and capital investments within China, which is a result of the NEW CAPITALISM that Premier Xi has been supporting. China is making the same mistakes that the USSR made prior to the collapse of Communism (and if you think that the Chinese Communist Party has anything to do with the Marxist idea of Communism, then forget it).
10
Ah, China is greening the world singlehandedly
Never mind about pneumonitis – it’s really just flu from imported frozen meats.
10
To all those who say there is no aim to this AGW scam……
The truth is finally told by your bible..
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/22/we-can-save-capitalism-or-the-planet-not-both
10
Marc Monaro exposes the “great reset..
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/10/23/watch-moranos-full-25-min-speech-on-climate-lockdowns-at-heartland-skeptic-conference-in-las-vegas/
Will the general public subjugate itself to “climate lockdowns” like it has to “covid lockdowns” ?
Will you ?
10
Joe Bastardi is forecasting colder than usual for the upcoming climate conference in Glasgow. See last 2’40’’ of his weekend update here, where he has a bit of fun at their expense.
https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-132123?full
Hint – the “Gore Effect” is still a thing.
00