If there was a sign of a major problem with energy policy it might look just like this:
In the EU for most of the last ten years gas prices were €20. Last week they spiked to €180. Prices have come down in the last few days as a flotilla of 15 US tankers crosses the Atlantic to rescue the EU and some Russian troops departed from the border near Ukraine.
Who needs gas? Everyone apparently… | Source: Trading Economics
It’s heartwarming to see the US tankers on the way:
US Tankers headed for EU
No sign the EU governments get the message:
What will it take? The Netherlands announced that they will limit coal stations and pay them not to produce electricity most of the time in the hope of stopping floods and droughts:
Dutch Government will limit coal-fired power stations to just 35% capacity from January 1.
Dutch coal-fired power stations may not operate at more than 35% of their maximum capacity in the coming years. “In the short term, this will lead to a significant reduction in CO2 emissions at coal-fired power stations of approximately 6-7 megatons,” the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate (EZK) reported on Wednesday.
The owners of the coal-fired power stations are financially compensated by the government for the lost income from the reduced electricity production up to and including 2024.
In Germany, the sabotage continues: 11 nuclear reactors have been shut, three are about to. The last three will go next year:
Germany’s Energy Surrender
Wall Street Journal
Rarely has a country worked so hard to make itself vulnerable.
Ten years ago 17 nuclear reactors produced about a quarter of Germany’s electricity, but the 2011 Fukushima accident prompted former Chancellor Angela Merkel to phase out nuclear. Six reactors remain: Three will close this month, with the remaining three ceasing operations next year. It’s hard to think of a more self-defeating policy on economic, climate and geopolitical grounds.
German one-year forward electricity prices have hit €300 per megawatt hour. For comparison, the 2010 to 2020 average was under €50 per megawatt hour.
Coal was Germany’s top energy source in the first half of 2021.
How big is this crisis? Even in France, where nuclear power is running, the energy price spikes are causing major industries to shut down:
With energy costs spiking to fresh records day after day, financial strain is mounting for industries including metals and fertilizers. Aluminium Dunkerque Industries France, Europe’s top smelter of the metal, curbed output in the past two weeks.
Trafigura’s Nyrstar will pause zinc production in France in early January and Romanian fertilizer maker Azomures temporarily halted activity.
“We’re seeing an existential crisis of the European aluminum industry and other metals-smelting industries that are power intensive,” Mark Hansen, head of metals trader Concord Resources, said. “It’s not always so easy to get these businesses back in operation”
— From Javier Blas about a Bloomberg story that seems to have disappeared.
Meanwhile, spare a thought for the people in Kosovo who were suffering through 2 hour rolling blackouts in the lead up to Christmas. Lest we forget who is responsible:
Javier Blas: Dec 24 As Kosovo homes go dark with rolling blackouts from today, just before Christmas, let’s remember that in 2018 the World Bank pulled the plug on a project to build a new coal-fired power plant in the country. The same coal Germany and the US burns today.
It takes a really Big Government to do Really Stupid Things.
Oh dear!
170
An excellent comment Peter; there isn’t much more that you could say to describe the picture that Jo has brought to life.
The feeling I take from the post is that something terrible has happened and we will be engulfed by the crash very soon.
This puts the Global Warming and Covid19 scares into perspective.
We have been scammed.
420
All of this chaos and human misery is based on the concept of Human Origin CO2 induced Global Warming.
Think about that!
Billions of Humans on this planet now held in bondage by a faierey story that must never be challenged.
________
In memory of Bob Carter, Peter Ridd and numerous others who have been cancelled for telling the truth.
550
Fear is a powerful motivator to get people to buy in to otherwise unjustifiable agendas. When accompanied with guilt that you caused what’s being feared, it’s even more powerful, and to support a scam, it only has to be marginally plausible.
Many fall victim by being fooled into thinking they’re being altruistic and to do otherwise is evil. Others are just narcissists who fear harm coming to themselves.
110
This will probably seem an irrelevant tangent but I’m reminded of self-driving vehicles.
Ten years ago there were numerous prototypes and confident predictions that such vehicles would be a common sight within a few years. Trials were conducted on public roads and transport unions prepared for battle on behalf of their members. But we’re just about to start 2022 and I rarely hear anything about them now.
They’ll be a reality for sure one day but the predictions of how soon have proved wildly off by a huge margin. My point is that ‘experts’ who often have the ear of our governments seem to love the spotlight. Telling it like it is would be boring, so in order to get attention (and $$$) they exaggerate. “The sky is falling in!”
20
[…] It’s expensive to change the global climate, just as the EU […]
10
Wow, A hockey stick that is based on actual real data !! 🙂
340
Murray Salby would be impressed.
80
As we watch this utter madness unfold in Europe, what do you think the chances are of our own political elite realising there is a problem and changing tack here before we follow like sheep ?
I think I already know the answer..I’m off to buy a large box of candles.
400
We are getting some actual political pushback against alarmism, such as Governors deSantis of Florida and Youngkin of Virginia. High winter heating bills plus expensive gas pumps may well create a negative wave the politicians can ride on.
312
Two chances Glenn, Buckleys and none. There are politicians and public figures who know that climate alarmism is a fraud perpetuated on the gullible, but saying so, and trying to do something about it is political suicide for them.
140
It’s all malarkey.
Oz humans produce about 500 Million tonnes of CO2 per annum. Oz vegetation etc absorbs about a billion tonnes. Oz is taking about 500 million tonnes (net) of other people’s emissions….
What’s the go? Oz is already a “good environmental citizen”. Sod off swampies!
120
Facts. Is that all you’ve got?
Pfffft!
00
We can try to understand how Europe got to this point but it’s complicated beyond imagination.
The CAGW meme is a totally science free political lever that has been used to plunder, undermine and destroy civilised life. It’s a big puzzle.
As a side issue this is also confusing;
https://joannenova.com.au/2021/12/oh-the-mystery-of-how-coronavirus-doesnt-infect-and-kill-people-in-japan-anymore/#comment-2503541
Since CAGW is about politics, and not science, why complain when we focus on the next meme, CV19, when it’s destroying us faster.
180
Sorry, link above is wrong.
Corrected;
https://joannenova.com.au/2021/12/its-a-voluntary-thing-the-ultimate-model-to-keep-free-speech-alive-in-a-world-of-cancelling/#comment-2503692
90
Sort of off topic but I thought some of you might enjoy my latest Virginia hit:
https://www.cfact.org/2021/12/27/paving-virginia-with-solar-slabs-is-a-bad-law/
Trying out some new language.
But given this green madness is global it may not be off topic.
151
David,
in the list of those making money from this, so donating to the Greens, I didn’t see any mention of those who supply diesel generators. Surely they will be the big winners.
And, never having been there, don’t they get hailstones?
130
and snow for a few days every year
10
Not really off topic. In fact it demonstrates a common theme in all this insane push to reduce allegedly CO2 emissions. It doesn’t! It also increase the risk for consumers to be without power enormously. So, the only people who benefit from all this insanity are businesses dealing with renewables. In other words, it’s a racket/scam, pure and simple, with the support of our governments.
Millions left without power amid European energy crunch
140
David, that is horrendous! I cannot believe that a politician could possibly believe that it is beneficial to destroy so much farmland and forest to replace it with a totally inefficient source of power that has the potential to be an environmental disaster.
On the other hand, why am I surprised? Let’s hope Yonkin can call a halt to this.
90
Meanwhile, Coal production on track to break records
which proves the point that the global push to reduce CO2 emissions to save the planet from some man-made climate change catastrophe is a complete hoax and a scam of epic proportions.
250
PeterS. Am I shadow-banned? If not: one more time, hoping everyone gets it. ….
Today’s world energy output is 100 units, 5 of which are renewables: 5%.
In 10 years output will be 200 units, of which 20% will be renewables (maybe, possibly, could be etc). Thus in ten years time 40 units (20% of 200) will be renewables.
Fantastic. A four-fold % increase. An eight-fold increase in units. fantastic. Let’s all sing praise to Gaia. Meanwhile….
The 95 units non-renewables today will become 160 units (80% of 200) in ten years time. An increase of 65%. An increase of 65 units (vs renewables increase of 35 units).
Got it now? The push for renewables cannot reduce the ever-increasing need for non-renewables. The renewables push is ONLY to enrich the pollies and pollies-connected who are on the renewables train.
70
There’s no room left on the planet’s surface, ocean floor, mountain top or roof top for much of an increase in renewables. Indeed, in ten years times most of the existing “renewables” will be dysfunctional and will remain sitting in place as monuments to past stupidity.
130
Not going to happen in Australia /sarc.
We have 10-12 GW of solar at midday in summer that halves by 4pm and is gone by 7pm, and 0.5-5.5 GW of wind.
That’s to meet an average demand of 23 GW.
Fortunately we still have an average 14.6 GW of coal delivering throughout the year, plus some peaking gas and hydro to keep the lights on.
Will the climate change when we destroy those coal generators?
What does the future hold?
Just noticed a change in Victoria for time of day electricity tariffs.
Peak period used to be defined as 7am-11pm Monday to Friday.
Latest default offers for time of day pricing for Melbourne:
Peak usage 3-9pm every day 33.5 cents/kWhr, off peak 19.7 cents/kWhr, supply charge 103.8 cents/day.
Discounts of 10-20% are available from the wide range of retail suppliers.
Ex generator price 4 cents/kWhr, solar feed in tariff 6.7 cents/kWhr.
90
The EU in general and Germany especially are perhaps heading for a perfect storm. Shutting down what’s left of their nuclear and coal power stations together with what looks like some in the EU wanting to block Russia’s Nord Stream 2 at same time couldn’t happen at a worse time. I’ve always wondered if the EU leaders are more interested in killing their own citizens than anything else, sort of like what Stalin did.
Germany’s Reaction To The Energy Crisis Could Be Catastrophic
90
People are scratching the heads wondering why Germany is doing everything they can to destabilise their own power grid. Three possibilities;
1. Total divorce from reality as a result of ignorance/stupidity/arrogance/insanity (most likely).
2. They like to reduce their population (ties in with the COVID-19 vaccination program).
3. They have been colluding with Russia and China to weaken the EU to ready it for invasion.
So, I wonder which of the three applies to our state and federal leaders.
140
I don’t believe the EU is becoming weaker militarily and we should be aware that power prices are determined by weather.
‘European prompt power prices on Monday dropped by more than 50% as wind generation rose in Germany and demand fell in France.
“Temperatures increase significantly in Central West Europe to well above normal levels, leading to softer consumption in France,” said Refinitiv analysts in a daily note.’ (Reuter)
24
Did you read Jo’s post?
Basic, core, heavy industry is shutting down.
110
They are at the mercy of the markets and if they decide to close down heavy industry to save the planet, its their choice.
05
Temperatures in Europe unseasonably warm.
https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/59805423
12
PeterS. Once again: follow the money…..and there’ll be no need for head-scratching.
NordStream 2 is the gas pipeline from Russia to Europe through Germany. This will allegedly cover the shortfall in coal-fired electricity capacity. It was the brainchild of Gerhardt Schroeder as German Chancellor….
Schroeder: “Schröder helped Horst Mahler, a founding member of the Baader-Meinhof terrorist group, to secure both an early release from prison and permission to practice law again in Germany… In 1978 he became the federal chairman of the Young Socialists,….
“He is currently the chairman of the board of Nord Stream AG and of Rosneft, after having been hired as a global manager by investment bank Rothschild”
Gees PeterS. What is it about SELF-ENRICHMENT by the elites that baffles us?
30
Not true. I know I’m only quibbling about english usage, but this is pathetic from a professional reporter. She wasn’t a former Chanceller when she made that decision. I mean, should we always update people on historical figures’ present circumstances? Won’t it be fun reading about what “dead former dictator Mussolini” did, or “dead former Prime Minister Churchill”, etc.
Yours sincerely, future former blog commenter, Robert Swan.
52
That’s boarderline.
20
Merkel’s twin legacies. Loss of German identity and living in the dark.
20
Socialism at its finest!
170
The Europeans, including Once Great Britain, are much more woke and even more committed to self-destruction than those in the Anglosphere such as Biden’s America, Canada, Australia and NZ.
It is horrible bearing witness to the collapse of Western Civilisation, bought on by decades of Marxist influence penetrating all institutions as in Rudi Dutschke’s “long march through the institutions”.
It’s horrible that so many of the “useful idiots” hate and actively destroy the most successful and humane civilisation in human history.
230
It has gone beyond farce when companies are being paid NOT to produce something. Much akin to farmers in the EU being paid not to grow anything in their fields (often referred to as “slipper farmers”).
10
Part of the propaganda supporting the destruction of Europe and the rest of the West involves YouTube’s war against truth teller, Tony Heller.
They are now defacing some, no doubt soon to be all, of his videos with UN propaganda messages about “climate change” as he explains in this just-released video.
https://youtu.be/NFhPF-mW1XI
130
Just to look at the data AGAIN, it’s very clear that the OECD countries reducing co2 emissions is a fools errand.
The “China+ India+ other countries” emissions have been very high for decades and “other countries” slope or trend is the same for the last 50 years.
Check out the data at the link and you’ve got to ask whether the UK + EU + USA + Aust, Canada etc actually understand these very simple trends?
IOW the OECD countries can’t make any measurable difference to the co2 trends at all.
Of course that’s if you believe that co2 levels are the driver of so called “dangerous climate change” or Biden’s “EXISTENTIAL threat”? Whatever that means.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions#/media/File:World_fossil_carbon_dioxide_emissions_six_top_countries_and_confederations.png
40
I’m surprised that the usually Far Left Wikipedia editors didn’t alter the data to show China with a lesser contribution.
20
The lack of increase in the other countries over decades despite greatly increased economic output and standards of living reflects the relentless drive for efficiency of economic production in those countries where market forces are allowed to operate to some extent. Notice how even communist Russia was increasing until its collapse and market forces being allowed to take over and then it decreased.
20
Here is another recent video of Tony’s entitled “YouTube Takes The Bait”.
https://youtu.be/YdxgytaFPtM
50
David the “other countries” co2 emissions have increased consistently since 1970 and I agree Russia has reduced emissions since the communist collapse in 1990.
10
Russia has 230 million people
Australia has 25.million
Yet their GDPs are almost the same
Per capita emissions would be much lower in russia
10
Correction, Russian population USB 146 million
10
I meant the countries shown, not the “other countries” category. India excepted.
20
Willis Eschenbach and Dr John Christy tried to find the climate emergency or crisis etc and failed.
So can any of our true believers tell us why we have to panic and how spending endless trillions of $ will change the climate?
And of course tell us how that will take place and when?
70
“17 nuclear reactors produced about a quarter of Germany’s electricity”. Those nuclear reactors must have been small because that’s a large number of plants for a small population proportion. Germany population is 84 m so that’s for 21m people. So, is nuclear power generation ( compared to coal / gas) actually inefficient? To me ,that indicates Australia would be foolish to embrace nuclear power. Particularly those small module reactors. We need to continue with coal and slowly update our fleet to Super critical or ultra critical type capacity. Which is what China is doing as per TonyB research.
60
While I agree that ultra super critical coal would be the best way forward, I’ve come to accept that if coal power plants won’t be acceptable to the general public, then a few 400 MW SMRs would be useful to replace coal power plants when they are shut down. These SMRs could be located at the same sites as the coal plants, thus minimising the need for extra transmission lines and substations.
70
So the UN data tells us that the global population will increase to 9.7 billion by 2050 and about 11 billion by 2100.
And yet they also expect that most of our energy will come from TOXIC ruinables by 2050 and by 2100.
Today 55% of the global population are urban based and by 2050 that is projected to be at least 64%.
Even today the OECD countries have 80% + of their populations that are urban based and still higher by 2050.
But does anyone seriously believe the above projections are possible using TOXIC ruinables and clueless TOXIC EVs?
Dr Pielke jr has checked the data and found it to be impossible, yet the fanatics and true believers still believe in their fantasy world.
https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth
30
So the UN data tells us that the global population will increase to 9.7 billion by 2050 and about 11 billion by 2100.
Other forecasts are available…..
For example, a much-quoted report by the University of Washington puts peak world population at 9.7bn in 2064, falling to 8.8bn by 2020.
Most of the variance is accounted for by sub-Saharan Africa, where the UoW report sees fertility rates declining from 4.6 births per woman in 2017 to 1.7 births per woman in 2100. Major influences on this decline are wider availability of healthcare (including contraception) and improvements in education for females.
10
Here’s Dr Pielke’s article for Forbes magazine about two years ago and he easily proves that USA net ZERO by 2050 would be impossible.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-2050-requires-a-new-nuclear-power-plant-every-day/?sh=6f875fb335f7
40
I believe Lomborg, in his book False Alarm, also proves that Net Zero is an impossible aim.
40
It really is like a pagan religion. If the right people make the right sacrifices then the shamans promise good weather. And the Europeans present themselves as being too sophisticated for religion.
50
Netherlands or the home of the Neanderthals
50
they recently made some very pragmatic decisions about nuclear power
00
Here’s the best quotes I can find from Dr Pielke’s Forbes article and this includes the world net zero quest and then the USA. His estimate used is Florida’s Turkey point Nuclear plant.
“So the math here is simple: to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, the world would need to deploy 3 Turkey Point nuclear plants worth of carbon-free energy every two days, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050. At the same time, a Turkey Point nuclear plant worth of fossil fuels would need to be decommissioned every day, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050.”
“I’ve found that some people don’t like the use of a nuclear power plant as a measuring stick. So we can substitute wind energy as a measuring stick. Net-zero carbon dioxide by 2050 would require the deployment of ~1500 wind turbines (2.5 MW) over ~300 square miles, every day starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050. The figure below illustrates the challenge.”
Next is just for the USA.
“We can also perform this same analysis for the United States, which according to BP consumed more than 1,900 mtoe of fossil fuels in 2018. To reach net-zero by 2050, the US would need to deploy one new nuclear power plant worth of carbon-free energy about every 6 days, starting this week, and continuing until 2050. This does not include possible increases in future energy consumption”. End of Dr Pielke’s quotes.
But does anyone really think that any of the loonies at the delusional Glasgow clown show even bothered to try and understand any of this complexity?
40
No-one accidentally de-industrialises their society.
20
Jo shows a chart ” heartwarming to see the US tankers on the way”
So, US rescues Europe, again.
20
Aloha! Months ago we were approached by Enable Midstream to run pipeline across our property in Louisiana to fill LNG tankers out of Lake Charles headed for the EU. We agreed.
I like that “vessel map”. If anyone from WW2 saw that they would immediately say “I’ve seen that before”! That is the same route US oil tankers took headed for the UK. At that time German U-boats were waiting in the Gulf of Mexico. The ones I spoke to remember seeing fires off the coast from torpedoed tankers.
Thanks to “climate” it is like its WW2 again! Here we are the USA saving Europe except this time sadly we don’t have FDR, we have biden whose policies are closer to mussolini!
20
I sent the link to this article to a friend in the Netherlands.
Below is his reply. Brainwashing in the EU has obviously reached epidemic proportions & their intellectual faculties have all but disappeared.
Yes, a lot of loonies, especially from the green side! That coal powered station that is going to close any day now, is a state
of the art set up, with ultra low emissions. Why not close an older station, that does give more emissions??. Indicates
the logic, or am I wrong. ?
The Germans are crazy; they also believed Fukushima caused the tsunami !!
20
COP 26: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Never in the field of human history has so much complete nonsense been spoken at one place by so many. Apocalyptic forecasts and imaginary impossible non -solutions to a non existent problem provide a cacophony of Blah, Blah ,Blah, Blah, Blah as Greta correctly said or as Johnson said “Humanity has long since run down the clock on climate change. It’s one minute to midnight on that doomsday clock and we need to act now,”
The West’s Main Stream Media notably the BBC, Guardian, NYT, Washington Post, NBC ,ABC, CBS,PBS and the US Cable networks have been the greatest propagators of this blizzard of misinformation. They have produced a generation of scared and psychologically disturbed teenagers and green fanatics who believe that the world has no future if fossil fuels continue to be used.
The whole COP 26 Net Zero campaign is founded on the flawed assumptions and algorithms which produced the IPCC model forecasts of coming dangerous temperature increases. A very large majority of the consensus establishment climate scientists have succumbed to a virulent infectious disease – the CO2 Derangement Syndrome. Those afflicted by this syndrome present with a spectrum of symptoms. First is the abandonment of any consideration of the thermodynamics of energy flows, the different energy densities of the different energy sources or the extreme difficulty of transitioning from the reliable high density power of f0ssil fuels to the diffuse inconstant power of solar and wind systems or the entropy losses inherent in suggested hydrogen systems. Critical thinking capacity is badly degraded. Intellectual hubris, confirmation bias, group think, the messiah complex and a need to feel at once powerful and at the same time morally self-righteous caused those worst affected to delude first themselves, then politicians, governments, the politically correct chattering classes and almost the entire UK and US media that anthropogenic CO2 was the main climate driver. This led governments to introduce policies which have wasted trillions of dollars in a quixotic and futile attempt to control earth’s temperature by reducing CO2 emissions.
There is also a total inability to recognize the most obvious Millennial and 60 year emergent cyclic patterns which are trivially obvious in the astronomic data , and in solar activity and drive earth’s temperature with a delay caused by the oceanic temperature inertia.
Here is the Abstract of my paper at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html
Abstract
This paper begins by reviewing the relationship between CO2 and Millennial temperature cycles. CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. Solar activity as represented by the Oulu cosmic ray count is here correlated with the Hadsst3 temperatures and is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales. The Millennial pattern is projected forwards to 2037. Earth has just passed the peak of a Millennial cycle and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. At the same time, and not merely coincidentally, the earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science “consensus” that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to human civilization is clearly untenable. The cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy. We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.
The effect of C02 on temperature is immeasurably small. There is no CO2 caused climate crisis.
For other posts on this topic scroll down through
https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
30
Dr Pielke jr made his Forbes article calculations about 3 years ago and by now we would’ve required another 1050 nuclear plants globally OR alternatively about 1.58 million EXTRA wind turbines.
And the USA should’ve built another 182 nuclear plants OR about another 240,000 wind turbines by the end of this year.
Are any of the religious fanatics starting to WAKE UP YET?
Of course those global wind turbines would’ve only generated about 30% of the time over the last 3 years, so many 100s of billions $ EXTRA for back up support globally for 70% of the time ( over 2 years) from batteries or pumped hydro or ….?
00
Steve Milloy lists his top 10 climate FLOPS for 2021.
I’m sure we could think of many more flops from this delusional merry go round.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/12/28/unsung-zeroes-the-top-10-under-reported-climate-flops-of-2021/
00
What makes me laugh is the idea that solar, wind and storage batteries are classed as “renewable energy” sources. After all, what are these 3 things made from? I guess that the Green Slime and others of their ilk would say “thin air”. Of course, these 3 things are manufactured from non-renewable metals (nickel, copper, titanium, zinc, lithium etc etc). Unless there is a massive leap forward in technology, renewable energy sources (except for wood and hydro) will go the same way as coal, oil and gas IE: FINITE. Welcome to the NEW CAPITALISM; planned obsolescence of solar panels, wind turbines and lithium storage batteries.
10
[…] It’s expensive to change the global climate, just ask the EU […]
00