If only the $3 million dollar a day ABC could afford a science team that could do as much research as one unpaid volunteer does in a day?
Thanks to Cliff Ollier and Ken Stewart for the BOM graph of past Brisbane Floods. Clearly things were worse in the 1800s.
If CO2 has any effect perhaps it reduces flooding?
There have always been big floods in Brisbane | BOM Source | KensKingdom
One day when the ABC finally gets the Internet they’ll be able to find official pages like “Known Floods in the Brisbane and Bremer River Basin“. And one day the half billion dollar BOM agency will be able to update graphs like this within a week of a new flood peak, like bloggers did (above).
Ken Stewart went looking for lost Rain Bombs and found them
As Ken reports the ABC made a fuss over three Queensland sites recording more than 1 metre of rain in just four days. But neither the ABC or the BOM is telling Australians that there have been at least nine similar “Rain Bombs” before and most of them were more than one hundred years ago.
I went looking at Climate Data Online for four day rainfall totals over one metre, to compare with the recent totals above at Mount Glorious, Pomona, and Bracken Ridge. For a start, Pomona’s BOM station has been closed for years, and Bracken Ridge is not listed at all, so those reports are from rain gauges external to the BOM network and can’t be checked. That’s OK. In about half an hour I found the following four day rainfall records.
| Crohamhurst | 4/2/1893 | 1963.6mm |
| Yandina | 3/2/1893 | 1597.8mm |
| Tully Sugar Mill | 13/02/1927 | 1421.3mm |
| Palmwoods | 4/2/1893 | 1244.6mm |
| Buderim | 3/2/1893 | 1150.3mm |
| Bloomsbury | 20/01/1970 | 1141.8mm |
| Dalrymple Heights | 6/04/1989 | 1141mm |
| Innisfail | 3/04/1911 | 1075.8mm |
| Nambour | 11/1/1898 | 1013mm |
1893 was a wet year! Crohamhurst had 2023.8 in five days, and Brisbane had three floods in two weeks in February and another in June.
And there is no such thing as a “rain bomb”, a term invented to make it sound unprecedented. This was an entirely natural and normal rain event. Slow moving tropical lows drift south every few years in the wet season, producing a large proportion of Queensland’s average rainfall.
It’s another Redpill moment. Spread the news. Australians need to know the media and the BOM are not giving them the whole truth. Has anyone in the BOM called up the ABC and corrected their mistake? Isn’t that their job?
There is nothing unprecedented about weather events in recent decades. However, just yesterday the Weather Channel was pushing the narrative of increased frequency and intensity of storms due to climate change. But as these historical data above show such a narrative is questionable.
I recall that such a narrative was called out as faulty almost a decade ago but the the alarmists just ignored it:
https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.38.pdf
And it hasn’t changed:
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-to-understand-the-new-ipcc-report-1e3?s=r
260
There is no such thing as a “Rain Bomb”. Ask the BOM (Bunch of Muppets) what it means. The answer will be we have NFI. So, all you TV stations and Newspapers get a grip and try better………You are supposed to employ journalists and all you have is talking heads talking BS………………………
40
As I wrote about Post Modernism, the ABC do not care.
Of course they could look up the facts. It’s not hard. But facts are irrelevant in this new world.
In their world man made ‘Climate Change’ is real and means whatever you want. It means both droughts and flooding rains are Climate Change, not Australia’s climate. And like all people on the Left, they revel in agreeing with each other and being told what to think, groupthink. Their idea of a debate is a group of people agreeing with each other and calling it a panel.
New Post Modern Science is now called ‘The Science’. Fact free it is the opposite of Rational Science. And it is promulgated by the UN/WHO/UNESCO as part of their new world order and global reset and the secure and unaccountable CSIRO/ABC/BOM all agree. You wonder why we pay their wages? I don’t think we should.
620
And you can agree with ‘The Science’ or be called a denier and cancelled, ejected, wiped out, doxed, humiliated, called names, insulted or have a shoe thrown at you. You cease to exist. And no one cares what you have to say, a non person. You have offended the herd.
280
I enjoy offending the herd. I had a discussion with some climate change oldies and found they were ignorant. One then asked where she could get more information. I sent her here with a side of WUWT.
I sent a copy of Jo’s post to my state and federal members this morning. No answer as yet but David Gillespie usually does acknowledge my messages.
131
TdeF
Another favourite charge which has crept in and now rivalling “denier”, is “misinformation.”
This completely false charge, used to hide total ignorance of the area under discussion, then absolves the ABC or BOM of even engaging further, as it is “obvious” that the person so charged is not even fit to be spoken to.
Whatever happened to “debate” and testing of ideas by discussion and verification???
As a cynical aside, I believe school debating teams are now probably pretty much defunct, as nowadays why bother when all Johnnie or Susie does is mindlessly soak up and repeat the Leftist claptrap forced on them by a curriculum which lost its way decades ago…!
120
Historic 1861-62 atmospheric river (40 days long) flooded the central valley, CA – an inland sea still the record precipitation year for the West coast (inc WA and OR) of the U.S.
Sixty-six inches of rain fell in Los Angeles that year. Ave is about 14 in.
– if it happens again? They are already saying repeatedly that it will be because of man-made climate change (as is the current drought). LOL
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/
180
The postmodern world went haywire when it moved from acknowledging subjective thoughts and feelings and actions as valid in relation to personal circumstances to subjective thoughts and feelings and actions in regard to objective facts eg the temperature, the laws of physics, the mechanics of machines …etc.
I suspect the laziness (or ignorance) of scientists to challenge postmodernism as it encroached into the. World of facts has landed us in this situation now where facts don’t matter.
250
Emotive terms like unprecedented, rivers of rain, rain bombs, etc are beloved of the left, because they appeal to millennials.
200
‘…because they appeal to millennials.’
Not just millennials, but to emotion in general (a cross-generational problem these days).
Exhibit A: Covid Hysteria.
If you have not been taught how to think (or worse, been actively taught not to think at all), then what else do you have.
We have entered a new Dark Age. Superstition abounds.
40
Nothing new here, since the dawn of time. Priests, Sharmans and Charlatans have pointed to extreme weather events, and declared them a sign the Gods are angry.
While demanding sacrifice on behalf of said Gods. They do it because it works and it’s been working for thousands of years. Exactly why it works I’m not sure.
00
It’s necessary to resort to anecdotal narratives like extreme weather events when the scientific trends fall short of predictions made twenty years ago. If we were exposed to the truth, enthusiasm to mitigate climate change would wane (even more than it actually has). We were supposed to be 0.4C hotter by now using the same computer models used today. And the level of carbon dioxide emissions were projected to be about 340ppm. They’re now at about 420ppm. So we should be a lot hotter. But we’re not.
Postmodernism continues to be an abuse of inductive logic, assuming the intuitive feelings of one tribe member represents the whole tribe. They would argue my critique is based on white man’s logic and reason that cause all the ills of the world like climate change, capitalism, Putin and anything else an academic activist (is there a degree for activism?) likes to feel when they get out of the wrong side of the bed!
120
Anecdotal evidence will never replace science. As more evidence is gathered, predictions are updated, eg the pandemic response.
23
Predictions and modelling is not science. Science is about falsifiability and being able to calculate something in advance for a practical purpose, while being to 5 or 6 deviations. You see science applied when you drive your car over a bridge, or use your phone to pay for something at a shop. Global warming modelling is not science in any way.
40
In the chart shown above two floods stand four metres clear of the rest bar one.
It is highly unlikely that any gauge measured that flood depth. But the depth was probably estimated with reasonably accuracy by qualified surveyors using available proxies, e.g. a mark on a wall or on a tree near the gauge.
In that Brisbane record there are three standout floods. At Windsor on the Hawkesbury, there is just one. In June 1867 there was a flood four and a half metres higher than the second highest. This represents a mind boggling quantity of water, probably more than double. The second highest was just three years earlier, so it would seem unlikely that the big flood was caused by blockage of the channel downstream.
50
Gerry, how has science become subject to emotions and feelings ?, the scientific method is alive and well, always self correcting. Instead blaming the boogeyman of Postmodernism, try submitting some actual evidence.
111
Science hasn’t been overwhelmed by emotion, but politics. This then drives unscientific methods designed to support political outcomes rather than fact or the discovery new knowledge. In this, science has simply gone the way of many of our institutions, hijacked by the left on their Long Slow March.
Once an institution/industry/endeavour has been captured by the left, it is turned into just another propaganda and/or control lever, its former objectives and goals subsumed.
130
The ‘left has captured society’ myth has been going for decades. The reason the sceptics have failed is poor science on their part. In the absence of evidence, the sceptics write blogs and throw mud.
021
Dave, try the late great Professor Bob Carter. He’ll fix your “science”.
http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/new_page_1.htm
50
Wow, he may be your Galileo but the greater scientific community shot down his efforts , the facts do count.
010
Your reference, I take it, is to the 97%.
Tell us now, what is John Cook’s field of expertise?
120
I suppose there is science and “The Science” that we are supposed to trust. There seems to be a proportion of society that revels in strong emotion, uses irrational thinking patterns to ramp up the emotions and then looks at science in a way that is distorted.
They get consumed with the search for data that will confirm and “enhance” their strong emotions. As we know, feelings are facts. So data that feeds those strong feelings are undoubtedly facts too. “The Science”
30
Good article and excellent sleuthing by Ken. I reckon there are many more OZ weather records that have either been forgotten or not yet discovered. The Watkins Tench diary lists some of them and there are good historic records of wildfire dating back to the 17th Century Dutch explorers.
I collect weather records for England and if we had some of the weather today that we had in the past, the already hysterical Met office and MSM would be in meltdown.
There follows a continuous non cherry picked sequence of years in the 13th century. It encompasses every type of weather imaginable, but a very heavy preponderance of wet weather. look at 1236!
1223 thunderstorms in June of unusual intensity
Very wet year inundations of rain and over flowings of water continuing in every month of the year that greatly hindered the seasons and fruits very late in maturing so in November hardly any crops to lay up in the barns.
1224 dry winter
Unseasonable weather in Ireland corn could not be reaped until January 1225-not helped by war
1225 bad harvest
1227 floods in winter
1228 inundations of rivers in Dec Jan and Feb –in Worcester- such that no one then living had ever seen the like in their time
1229 severe winter ‘unusually bitter, waters so frozen horsemen could cross upon the ice, great snow afterwards earth covered for several days.’
1231 March to October hardly any rain anywhere in England-great drought
1233 wet summer from 23 March with great inundations of rain through the whole summer destroying warrens and washed away the ponds and mills throughout almost all England. Water formed into lakes in middle of the crops where the fishes of the rivers were seen to great astonishment and mills were standing in various places they had never before been seen.
1233-1234 severe frost from Christmas 1233 to Feb 2 1234 destroying roots of trees to four foot down then rest of year very unseasonable
1234 third unseasonable year
Wet weather in autumn choked the seed and loosened it.
1236 great floods in Jan, Feb and part of March that no one had seen the like before. Bridges submerged, fords impassable, mills and ponds overwhelmed and sown land meadows and marshes covered. Thames flooded palace of Westminster so small boat could be navigated in the midst of the forecourt. And folk went to their bed chambers on horseback
Followed by dry summer with intolerable heat that all lasted four months. Deep pools and ponds were dried up and water mils useless.
1237 great rains in February, fords and roads impassable for 8 successive days
Turbulent year stormy and unsettled
1238 great floods in many parts probably December
Cloudy and rainy in beginning until spring had passed then the drought and heat were beyond measure and custom in two or more of the summer months. Great deluge of rain in the autumn that straw and grain became rotten and an unnatural autumn which is held to be a cold and dry season gave rise to various fatal diseases.
1239 very wet weather continually from Jan to March, it has continued for four months without intermission.
1240 dry Jan to March, wet from April to December but fruitful and abundant but wet and rainy autumn greatly choked the abundant crops.
1241 drought from March 25 to Oct 28 drought and intolerable heat. Pastures withered, herds pined away from hunger and thirst
December very cold and bitter weather the like of which no one had seen before, binding the rivers killing large numbers of birds
1242 dry and hot
1243 floods
1244 dry autumn wholly without rain
1245 unseasonable summer
1246 rainy year
1247 very unseasonable weather in late winter especially cold and rainy and windy
1249 very mild winter so that neither snow nor frost covered the face of the earth nor bound it in their customary weather, trees were seen to be sprouting in February. Winter was turned into summer but intense cold came at end of March and lasted until middle of May that made people shiver that casting off linen they were compelled to resume double clothing.
1252 very hot and dry summer, very wet autumn heat of the sun so great that all the earth became dry no fruit grew on trees. At end of harvest there was great flooding breaking bridges mills and houses adjoin the rivers
Matthew Paris notes in most of march and the whole of the months of april and may the ground was burnt up by the sun the wind continuing from south west north or east. The sun rose up to its solstitial culmination and its immoderate and intolerable heat so burned up the earths surface and multiplied its warmth that the herbage withered away. Moreover the heat continued into the night and generated flies flea and other injurious pests.
He also writes in april may june and july heat and drought prevailed intolerably without beneficial sprinkling of rain or dew. Meadows were stripped of their grass, plant foliage withered. According to john de taxter ‘this year many died from the excessive heat of the summer. There was much thunderstorms. Robert of Gloucester noted in 1270 ‘in the year of grace 1252 the summer was so dry and hot that even until this day there has been none hotter .’short cold spell around oct 13 which was very wet.
1253 dry summer and wet autumn with in spring and summer a prolonged drought. Flooding in autumn which dried up after the feast of St Michael happened in spring (drought) contrary to the nature of the season, for at the time of the equinox with the whole weather moderate there is customarily peace in the elements
Brooks and Glasspole believe 1252 and 1253 to be the driest of which we have any historical account; see Meteorological magazine 63 1928, page 4.
390
Very interesting summary of events, tonyB… all those “unprecedented” events. 😉
We are so lucky to be in a period of relatively benign weather, (albeit not as warm as most of the last 10,000 or so years), with the facilities provided by the use of fossil fuel energy for construction etc to help humanity cope with most of what Mother Nature can throw at us. 🙂
180
Yes, people don’t realise that this is a benign period. I suspect that if computers had not been invented that we would never have known that we are living through a climate catastrophe/chaos/armageddon/emergency
200
Reading that list, it brings to my mind that refrigeration is likely the most useful invention of mankind. But it only ranks 13th on this list:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/11/innovations-list/309536/
50
The corn mentioned in 1224 was referring to its correct meaning: Wheat, Oats and Barley.
10
Such bias exhibited by the MSM, education establishments and governments towards a narrative that is clearly false that even a 6-year old could figure it out once given all the real and unadulterated information reflects a truth bomb that not many people like to hear; adults are in general too gullible and easy to fool, not so much due to their own fault but largely due to the biased MSM, education establishments and all our political leaders regardless of their major party affiliation. See the Catch-22? There is only one peaceful way to smash the loop; through the ballot box. Sadly though I doubt it will happen. So, round and round we go until something breaks. When it does watch out!
190
Two things to bear in mind though:
1. Atmospheric water vapour increases by 7% for every additional 1°C of warming.
2. There is some evidence that the jet stream becomes wavier as the temperature differential decreases between latitudes. This leads to weather systems becoming ‘stuck’ in place for longer periods of time. I’m sceptical that is happening yet in the Southern Hemisphere but it is something to be aware of. Long-run pattern changes to ENSO and SOI are possible.
328
Simon
There is plenty of evidence that weather systems used to ‘stick’ at times throughout the 2000 years of English records I have.
On the whole, and I would need to secure a large grant to complete the research , I would say the wettest periods come during the cooler phases of the climate and not the warmer.
Lastly and I noted this again in the weather records both before and after the volcanic eruption just beyond the end of the sequence I give above, that eruptions do not affect the climate for decades after, but at most a season or two depending on the type of eruption and where it happened.
250
So higher atmospheric water vapour and wavey jet streams were more influential back in the 19th century? Or was it just weather?
290
Well that comment drop kicked Simon’s assertion that meridional or “wavier” jet streams cause weather events to be prolonged. The same mechanics that influence weather remain the same – the event that flooded Se QLD and NE NSW were due to a feed in of moisture from the Coral Sea, a blocking influence in the Tasman and a colder atmosphere at the middle level.
110
I have my immediate family living in Lismore with my niece living on the lower South Lismore area. She was flooded to the second floor and has lost much – insurance premiums are very high if not procurable. My cousin lost two aircraft at the airfield. The devastation for many people is worse; the area has many poor who will find the recovery very hard. The area looks like slum third world ATM with the usual mud, debris and drowned livestock in the mix. Such is the reality.
70
The BOM failed to advise as to the imminent nature of this event. The Stapyleton radar combined with Grafton showed the rainfall intensity and the slow moving of the system. this was evident in QLD preceding it moving into NSW. Knowing that the soils were saturated from previous rain it seemed obvious to anyone that can analyze basic real time weather data that something big was going to happen. The SES were reactive and started the alarm after midnight for people to evacuate – too late as people clambered onto rooftops. As the disaster became noticeable at daylight with rain still pouring down, the SES were in a state of inaction and confusion- overwhelmed. A call went out for civilians with boats to come to the rescue, but this was later retracted as it was too dangerous. My cousin and many others rescued people from their houses, ignoring the SES and their bureaucratic procedures. The Bureau and the SES are ineffective in these situations. The BOM is culpable and the SES needs to get rid of silly safety protocols if it is going to act in order to save lives.
120
The BOM is just a bunch of public servants showing some care and no responsibility more concerned with maintaining the climate fraud than providing advance warning to the taxpayer. They will go home this afternoon for the weekend and wash their hands of their inadequacies. Probably they will be asking the feds for more money for an even bigger computer to predict BS. It is time we called them out. While we hold ministers responsible we do not hold their advisors to account.
80
Politically it seems futile. This malaise that affects all parts of the body politic ensures that nothing will ever happen.
31
Glen, I was on the internet about 3am when the word came through that the flood was about to overtop the levee at Lismore, when I believed it was expected to maybe get that high around midday.
The message that I got out of that was that the overtop flooding would be completed by daybreak. This would almost resemble a tsunami, in the dark.
If the fatalities have been limited to four then somebody has done a most remarkable job. They must have had a very well prepared plan and executed it to perfection.
30
Simon is playing the ‘Gravity Game ‘ Ken . More commonly known as the ‘Moving the Goalposts ‘ debating fallacy . Simon cannot refute the evidence of greater magnitude 19th century Brisbane River flood peaks in the graph and the historic ‘rain bomb ‘ weather data unearthed by Ken Stewart that shatter the credulity of any anthropogenic climate change signal argument concerning the recent floods – hence Simons ruse of diverting and steering the discussion to his ” two things to bear in mind ” and the ‘possibility’ of futuristic weather system changes: ” Long run pattern changes to ENSO and SOI are possible ”
Notice ‘Simons’ cunning caveat : ” I’m sceptical that is happening [ wavier jet stream ] in the southern hemisphere but it is something to be aware of ” Of course – ‘be aware ‘ of it .Think about it. What about this ?… This qualification allows Simon to sneakily play the considerate thoughtful rationalist whereas his real intention is to distract the debate .Some of you were lured by Simons sophistry instead of exposing it :
” Moving the Goalposts …..Definition : A topic is under discussion .Person 1 shows why person 2’s argument fails .Instead of admitting defeat ,person 2 changes the topic to one that IS CLOSELY RELATED.. but not the same as the original one ”
https://reasoningforthedigitalage.com/table-of-contents/contextual-relevance-straw-man-red-herring-and-moving-thegoalposts-fallacies/
Simon reminds me of another opponent on another blog debate thread who used the same slightly tweaked phraseology [ ‘notes to bear in mind’] – and the same greasy sophistry
00
Ken Stwart didn’t unearth it. The ABC did this more than a year ago. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-16/brisbane-flood-history-should-not-take-people-by-surprise/13051826
00
That is the Brisbane flood history . Ken Stewart divulged the rain bomb data acknowledged by Joanne Nova : ” Ken Stewart went looking for lost rain bombs and found them “
20
It is the same thing.
01
The historic Brisbane flood levels are shown however I cannot see the compendium of four day extreme rainfall totals divulged above [ Crohamhurst, Yandina Palmwoods Buderim etc ] mentioned in the 2021 ABC story. As any credible atmospheric scientist or hydrologist understands. floods and downpours are not ‘the same thing’
The phenomena are clearly differentiated in this publication : ” If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing Why Aren’t Floods ” This excerpt may interest you and the ABC who I cant imagine would ever dream of censoring these findings :
” despite assertions by the climate community that increasing precipitation extremes inevitably lead to higher flood magnitudes, multiple studies have demonstrated this has not been the case ” https://eos.org/research-spotlights/if-precipitation-extremes-are-increasing-why-arent-floods
Anyway continue with your semantic nitpicking in the pursuit of a little victory if you must.
00
Is it ‘the same thing’ Gee Aye ?
00
Jet streams became “wavier” around 1945, 1977 and probably many other times before that when they could not be observed.
190
I discovered jet streams in the 1950s.
Still at school, I was enthralled by modern science. The first jet airliner was the De Havilland Comet. It was a bit of a dud, the wings used to fall off, because they weren’t swept back enough. So they had to go slower than the Boeings so the wings didn’t fall off.
Then I read that a Comet had set a new speed record from Darwin to Sydney, using the assistance of a 200 miles per hour tailwind. This was the jetstream.
61
The Comet air crash over the Mediterranean was caused by the metal wings flexing causing metal fatigue and breaking.
Chester Wilmot was killed in this tragedy.He opened my eyes to the nature of the European war.
https://www.amazon.com/Struggle-Europe-Chester-Wilmot/dp/1568525257
20
One problem in the Comet was metal fatigue around the windows.
30
Jet stream behaviour is determined by the sun, when its off colour the earth’s stratosphere shrinks and the jet stream meanders. This has been happening since Adam was a boy.
21
Where did you get this bit of nonsense?
Atmospheric water swings by 15% every year but the ocean surface temperature only changes 0.5C every year. I make that 30% change for 1C swing.
140
‘ … the jet stream becomes wavier as the temperature differential decreases between latitudes.’
The jet stream becomes wavier when the sun is quiet and blocking high pressure becomes the norm. I argue its a global cooling signal.
121
Ian,
Temperature is not the explain of ‘atmospheric rivers’. It is not warmer this year. What physically changed to cause what we are observing in both hemisphere? Stop arguing and provide a scientific explanation of the phenomena. Do you get me?
Something did physically change to cause what was observed in both hemisphere. There was suddenly in both hemispheres this year the appearance of a phenomena which some call ‘atmospheric rivers’ which is just a fancy word for large regions over the ocean, that are now covered with banks of clouds. This is a sudden increase in the air’s ability to form clouds. We know the change in the air’s ability to form clouds, is not caused by temperature because this year was not unusually warm.
The physical cause of what was just observed (change of the airs ‘ability’ to form clouds) is due to a change in emissions from solar coronal holes. The sun is observationally suddenly changing in appearance. The coronal holes are stretching across the surface of the sun and the sunspots are shrinking and disappearing. What is happening is a complex significant change to the sun. The sun is transitioning to a star that does not produce sunspots because of loss in rotation speed. When stars are in the transitional period, they stop producing ‘sunspots’ for a period of time.
The banks of clouds which have suddenly appeared in the Northern Pacific are the cause of the 10 atmospheric river events that British Columbia and Washington experienced this year. The banks of clouds can be seen in the satellite pictures. Suddenly there was the appearance of fog…. days of fog for the regions where the banks and banks of clouds are moved by the prevailing west to east winds.
The sudden appearance of multiple days fog warmings in Vancouver and Seattle and further inland. Fog, and days of cloud foggy occurred in other regions of the American continent this year. Wave after wave of snow storms as the cloudy moisture full air strike the cold air. In North America this cause persistent weather patterns that cause snowfall, ice storms, and extreme weather.
The air’s ability to form clouds is almost completely controlled by the number of ions there are in the air. More ions in a region of the atmosphere increases the air’s ability to form clouds.
This the global temperatures from Roy Spencer web page for the last 10 months. Temperature changes did not cause the observed regions of the ocean which are now covered time by time with banks of clouds.
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2021 04 -0.05 0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02 0.02 0.29
2021 05 0.08 0.14 0.03 0.06 -0.41 -0.04 0.02
2021 06 -0.01 0.31 -0.32 -0.14 1.44 0.63 -0.76
2021 07 0.20 0.33 0.07 0.13 0.58 0.43 0.80
2021 08 0.17 0.27 0.08 0.07 0.33 0.83 -0.02
2021 09 0.25 0.18 0.33 0.09 0.67 0.02 0.37
2021 10 0.37 0.46 0.27 0.33 0.84 0.63 0.06
2021 11 0.08 0.11 0.06 0.14 0.50 -0.42 -0.29
2021 12 0.21 0.27 0.15 0.03 1.63 0.01 -0.06
2022 01 0.03 0.06 0.00 -0.24 -0.13 0.68 0.09
2022 02 0.00 0.01 -0.02 -0.24 -0.05 -0.31 -0.50
60
If CO2 has any effect perhaps it reduces flooding?
Levees? Dams? Better records after 1900?
118
“Levees? Dams? Better records after 1900?”
Do you really think any levee or Wivenhoe Dam would prevent a flood of 8.43 metres??
180
“Do you really think any levee or Wivenhoe Dam would prevent a flood of 8.43 metres??”
The way the Palletchook govt operate the dam, it just exacerbates the flood, they wait too long before acting, then dump the lot into an already flooded river.
170
Yes.
I call it “water storage greed”.
The government and bureaucrats forget that some dams were primarily built for flood mitigation – water storage is an added benefit.
I believe the council & water authorities exacerbated the Townsville flood in Feb 2019. They knew big monsoonal rain was coming, and there was plenty of water already in the Ross River dam and they should have started releasing, but their greed got the better of them and dam got so full they had to open all the gates in the middle of the most intense rainfall. Pretty smart dont’ya’think?
Anyway, the dam management report done in the aftermath put the blame squarely on “nobody” of-course.
I’m sure they learnt from their mistakes and will do things differently next time. /s
Apart from all the people that got flooded and lost everything, including many that wouldn’t have if the dam had been managed properly, we also have the disastrous flow-on effect of hugely inflated property insurance prices. My guess after the latest flooding in Brisbane is another insurance price hike for all Queenslanders.
20
And when asked about why they are completely failing to use commonsense or act in advance of clearly seen coming weather events our idiot Premier mindlessly says ” We have to follow the Management plan”.
Total stupidity – if the plan is plainly not coping or irrelevant then you change plans!
50
They did.
Forget the lawfare, coming or going. Wivenhoe was well managed both times.
10
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/03/03/the-reason-why-floods-are-so-bad-and-its-not-climate-change/
120
and ultimately leading to a serious food shortages hence world-wide famine; possibly the next crisis our governments have “allowed” to happen.
100
PeterS I think we’ll have to wait until we have a famine, but we seem to be so much better off today and all countries seem to be healthier and have increased calories for much higher populations. Look up the data that I’ve linked to many times. Our World in Data is also a reliable source.
The delusional Malthusians tried their big push in about 1970 and made fools of themselves, but I don’t think they’ll ever wake up.
BTW I still think Dr Rosling is the best easy way to observe Human progress since the introduction of fossil fuels and he plotted 120,000 data points from 1810 to 2010 prove his case.
70
You are missing the point. We are not prepared for world-wide massive crop failures. If it happens, food prices will go through the roof and billions will die of starvation. Crops take time to regrow.
61
PeterS we know that famines were more dangerous and common 60 years ago and certainly they were a curse for hundreds and thousands of years.
The last great famine was in China from about 1958 to 1961 and cost about 50 million lives, but we’ve become wealthier since then and now feed,house, clothe, educate, provide health care etc for almost 5 billion more people today.
Of course nobody knows what could happen in the future, but we seem to be able to cope so far. Certainly our climate so far is as good as it could be and we also have easier life styles than previous generations.
I agree this could easily change sometime in the future and I think a small part of that change could start in OZ if we’re stupid enough to elect a Labor/ Greens govt in May.
Again world population in 1810 was 1 bn.
In 1927 was 2bn.
In 1960 was 3 bn.
In 1970 was 3.7 bn.
In March 2022 is probably about 7.9 bn.
70
As the world’s population has increased more or less exponentially, global food reserves have not. There was a report a few years ago stating the world had some 74 days left of food reserves in the event of a global disaster. Not sure of the current state of reserves. So, if we have the next great food crisis that lasts for many months it will be potentially catastrophic by historical standards. We are not prepared and if it eventuates billions will die. That’s my point. We are more vulnerable as a whole than ever before, and it’s becoming worse as time rolls by.
21
Expanding on my point, floods are nothing new as is stated in this thread. We have had far worse. What’s different today is a much larger world population, and the fact governments of the world have not prepared for contingencies to bridge the gap across such periods of disasters by hoarding supplies of food. They are too busy figuring out more ways to take away our freedoms bit by bit until we have nothing left than to look after the health and safety of the people, be it nation specific or world-wide. Billions might die of starvation if we are not careful, and thus far we have not been careful at all.
62
Did your mum read you chapters from “The Population Bomb” when you were a child? or are you still a child?
62
The Wives In Hose dam wasn’t built until 1980 ish. There’s a big part of the 1900’s flood events unaffected by it.
Was there a smaller dam or dams on the river prior?
BTW, levees can increase flood depth because it contains the water to a smaller area thus increasing the height of the water.
Probably the best way of comparing events is the quantity of rain in a given period.
The run-off and flooding has many variables over the decades.
As for pinning it on climate change. Once you get over that hurdle you then have to prove the cause of climate change. Good luck.
20
Crohamhurst also holds the current Australian daily rain record of 907mm, also set in 1893.
100
Not any more. There are new gauges in wetter places up north.
00
Premier Palletchook has decreed that we shall all stay home today because it might rain, FFS, is this what we been reduced to.
160
Also, have we already forgotten what our governments and MSM did to us during the COVID-19 pandemic? People have such short memories, which is one reason why the people keep voting for one or the other group of clowns over and over. So glad there is a happy ending to all this earthly self-indulgent insanity.
50
Pull yourself away from your ancient mariner shtick long enough to spare a thought for the undead PeterS, that is supposing you’re not a member of that tribe –you’ve got me wondering.
20
That is from under her Premier Annapanic hat?
50
Ken Stewart and Cliff Ollier are persistent and honest researchers and we should be very thankful we have them on the rational sceptic’s side of the argument.
I’ve always tried to look at our past to try to understand and expose the left wing extremism in so much of our MSM in Australia and around the world.
It doesn’t win you many friends,but I don’t care anymore.
Thanks again to Jo for her dogged persistence and she does have respect for our past data and is always prepared to argue her case using verifiable evidence.
Thanks also to tonyb for his research over the years and I’ve read a lot of his material and his numerous visits to the MET office must have kept them on their toes. And I know he does respect a lot of the people who work there.
200
Here again is Willis’ article checking all the GLOBAL data on extreme weather events for over 100 years and you’ll note that deaths have dropped over 95% for droughts, floods, cyclones, fires etc since 1920 or 1930s.
The pop at risk today 7.8 bn and about 6 bn less people AT RISK in the earlier data for early 20th century. THINK about it.
Of course this article covers just about everything involved in their so called emergency or Biden’s/ DEMs so called EXISTENTIAL THREAT and is well worth your time to check it out.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/25/wheres-the-emergency/
100
There is no climate emergency. What worrying is we could have a series of weather extremes, which are not that uncommon and ordinarily are not overly serious in and of themselves but give the size of the world’s population, they could lead to a short period of massive crop failures world-wide but enough to cause a subsequent world-wide famine leading to billions dying of starvation. We are not prepared for such an eventuality. Instead what are we doing? We are preparing for the next world war. Insanity.
70
Do not worry overmuch. PeterS. When the next glacial expansion begins, our green left , by then the rulers of planet Earth, will still be following policies to prevent CAGW. Have you ever read jerry Pournelle’s Fallen Angels ? Hopefully, I will be long dead.
50
I’m not worried for reasons I’ve espoused in the past but I am somewhat annoyed at the lack of interest shown so far by the voting public to put a stop to the increasing insanity exhibited by our leaders.
50
***SUGGESTION***
With links such as the following which are from former Australian Government scientific agencies but which now operate as propaganda agencies and which are therefore highly prone to adjustment to suit a political agenda,
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml
please make sure you archive the pages on one or preferably more publicly available Internet archive sites such as at https://web.archive.org/save or the Wayback Machine etc..
Tony Heller has also noticed a lot of US Government climate data is altered such as at NOAA and NASA so it is important to maintain archive copies to prove their fraud
90
Good suggestion but it hasn’t helped with regards to the deliberate adjustment of the temperature data by NASA. The governments keep on ignoring such truths in spite of the deliberate and fraudulent attempts by various government funded organisations to fudge the data. See the Catch-22? The government funded organisations are funded by the governments (obviously but worth pointing out to make sure one gets the point). So, nothing will change. The lies continue no matter how much we expose the truth. The only hope is if we expose it long and hard enough, enough people wake up to it and stop voting for the major parties. That’s the reality of the situation.
60
Weather records will oftentimes show,
Greater flooding not that long ago,
Reported and noted,
And in papers oft quoted,
Facts alarmists do not want to know.
100
Not much changes. The Nino34 region was in continuous La Nina phase from June 1892 till March 1895.
http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/oni/ONI_NINO34_1854-2021.txt
The current LaNina commenced in August 2020 and still persists – well into second year.
There was a severe El Nino phase from April 1896 to March 1897 that peaked 2C above the base line. The 1997 El Nino peaked 2.4C over the base and the 2015 peaked at 2.64C above the base.
60
Its worthwhile noting that from 1890 to 1893 Victoria was parched dry and in drought, with bushfires raging. Not until June 1893 did the rains finally arrive.
10
When I looked at the BOM records for strong La Ninas, I note that the mid-1970s were a period of very strong ones.
10
Also SST fell 1.5 C.
https://ensoreview.com/enso/1892-1893-la-nina/
00
WARNING – DO NOT buy fuel from any refuelling station that has been underwater.
WARNING – DO NOT go near any recharging station that has been underwater.
110
There are some very good comments above ; It’s true many thousands of people find themselves living in dangerous flood prone areas all over Australia. The situation has ‘evolved’ over many decades and apart from building bigger and better dams to mitigate these floods there are no easy answers. But it is good to talk about it and look for answers. Our thoughts go out to these people who have lost everything. The cost in terms of money is exceeded only by their suffering.
70
Jo’s nailed it again, those silly scientists would never have thought to look at history.
Will this be in her next paper ?.
62
Dave
I have met with the scientist responsible for collating historic climate data at the met office in the UK
He is a very nice man but generally their history is thorough until 1920 then more fragmentary to 1860 . They do not go back any further in any sort of detail.
Unfortunately they do not research historic climate any more as in the days of Hubert lamb. Their archives and library have many pieces of information on climate , some on vellum dating back to the 13th century.
Unfortunately as the librarian admits , they rarely see scientists in the archives and on the whole, if a record has not been digitised, it does not exist for many researchers.
140
Why would any climate scientist need to look at history when they can just run their models with an earlier start date. In Australia, the history is changesd to match the models.
100
Tony, how does your anecdotal information from the UK get ( very unscientificly ) extrapolated to the rest of the world ?.
18
Dave
The Met office and the UEA have always been at the forefront of historical climate research as can be seen via the numerous papers and books emanating from them in the past.
Because of the vast amount of source information they are generally reckoned the best in the word. Few other places have direct climate information back to the 12th century.there were so numerous chroniclers like Matthew Paris and Merle.
Unfortunately there is no research these days on historic climate other than specific events.
Phil jones was one of the last, now retired. He wrote in 2004 that historic climate variability was much greater than hitherto realised.
100
Again, no evidence for your claims other than anecdotal, which equates to nothing.
This is why you guys are stuck in this flooded backwater.
010
Dave
I have at least 20 weighty books in my small library and numerous other documents that relate to historical climate written by the luminaries of the age. Unfortunately those luminaries no longer exist and whilst individual papers are written that dense exploration of the past is mostly a thing of…well the past.
If you would care to read some of the highly detailed and well researched books dealing with past climate I will provide a list, otherwise I fear you will remain enclosed in your rather small and unilluminated world.
60
I love yr DATA Tony, yr thermometer records are not anecdotal and not add-justed like B.O.M
10
In the 1893 flood, the Victoria Bridge was swept away as well as the Indoroopllly rail bridge.
Punts were used for some time to get people from South Brisbane to the city.
The Royal Show was to be cancelled, until my great grandfather stepped in and said he would ferry all the livestock across the river.
During the economic depression, gold and silver coins had to be brought up from Sydney, and ferried across the river. My great grandfather did that, and had it in the bank before the police escort arrived.
110
I’ve got to say the Brisbane River is not one I would want to cross in a punt especially at flood time.
60
In the Thursday unthreaded I posted this link
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/what-is-causing-all-this-queensland-rain-flooding/100865930
which directly falsifies this sentence
I can understand missing my post but I don’t understand how you failed to notice this article (and I should add it is not the only one and similar has been noted on broadcasts)
16
An occasional article from Their ABC that slips through ABC censors to tell the truth, does not prove that the ABC doesn’t overwhelmingly push the anthropogenic global warming fraud.
It’s analogous to how a hot day, month or year doesn’t prove AGW.
One or several true articles on Their is not proof that they have reformed and have decided to tell the truth as legally required by their charter. We would need to see a consistent pattern of truth telling to prove that.
120
Thanks but you didn’t write the main article.
08
It might also be that the rogue truth-telling reporter is employed under a “diversity” employment program as the one token truth-telling non-Leftist – just so they can say they don’t discriminate and really do employ non-Leftists.
70
Yes they have shown the flood height charts but no mention of previous “rain bomb” events. This post was about the rain being “different” this time- which it wasn’t.
[Duplicate, right? – Jo]
10
Yes they have shown the flood height charts but no mention of previous “rain bomb” events. This post was about the rain being “different” this time- which it wasn’t.
30
SO… This article states that rainbombs are not a thing and you complain that an article does not mention rainbombs. Fickle much.
But no… the ABC beat you by 13 months.
00
You are the fickle one semantically nitpicking ‘ Gee Aye’ ….Ken did not choose the terminology ‘ rain bomb ” It may be inappropriately sensationalist though Ken uses the same phrase for simplicity’s sake in debates like the one here with you. You surely know this . The ABC article is a history of Brisbane flood heights. The climate catastrophist narrative of an ABC report in the wake of the latest Queensland floods is almost completely different in alarmist tone to the more analytical 2021 article. How to explain this memory holing ?…Did the ABC beat itself by 13 months ? Or is the ABC ramping up the Labor and Greens propaganda in the run up to a May federal election
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/03/05/abc-vs-abc-on-the-2022-brisbane-climate-change-floods/
00
etc etc. The ABC beat him by more than a year.
00
You thought you were appearing clever and only made yourself look like a fool ….” The ABC beat him “? Did you happen to read the Watts Up With That article ?
00
Has anyone in the BOM called up the ABC and corrected their mistake? Isn’t that their job?
More to the point, will the government require the BOM to do so (Isn’t that their job?), or will we see the usual ducking and hiding from the government?
80
Apologies? Never! They just keep making up stories to promote the government sanctioned emission reduction nonsense. Otherwise, they would not have a leg to stand on and they would crumble. That’s why our government will not do a thing about it and instead keep funding them to produce more fabrications and misdirections to make sure the voting public by and large are kept in the dark.
40
What mistake did the ABC make?
16
Yeah, fortunately there is a game changer in the office.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/kate-doyle/8949178
00
They put this graph image of historical flood events in the article you shared, which shows the flood events to been worse in the 1800’s. This is a departure from the ABC’s narrative and was clearly included by mistake.
30
So they were correct? I meant what mistake did they make?
01
Hey NoJo,
how many 10’s of 1,000’s of homes were inundated back in the day? Imagine what’s going down when we get that much rain, hey?
[“No Jo” That is cute.]ED
00
Again, who cares. The upcoming generations are absolutely convinced that fossil fuels will destroy the planet, so cover the Earth in glass, steel, concrete.Clear vast areas of trees for your renewables. Dig up trillions of extra tons of rare earths to flood the planet with toxic lithium batteries. That will stop the rain…..
90
How good would it be to cast a line off your river front porch and catch a fish for dinner, or a tree change, and build a house amongst the eucalypt and feed the birds from your kitchen window.
But when the rains come and the eucalypt burns blame fossil fuels instead of yourself.
Don’t build your house on sand.
90
Another brilliant idea from the Labor/Greens loony left side of politics or how to respond to the NSW floods etc.
Incredibly stupid but who cares when it comes from the head of the Unions. Good find from the Bolter and Daisy Cousens. Unbelievable but true.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/sally-mcmanus-idea-to-solve-flooding-issue-attracted-universal-condemnation/ar-AAUy5uU
70
Sally McManus, why would you expect any different.
70
Let’s not forget 1974 !
“On 24 January, cyclone Wanda came ashore north of the city. Wanda inflicted relatively little wind damage, but produced record rains over the Australia Day weekend. In three days, Brisbane received 580mm, with much higher falls over river catchments near the city – >1,300mm in five days at Mt Glorious.”
As I was listening to something the other day all comparisons seemed to be less than 2011, Ex tropical cyclone Oswald in 2013 and Cyclone Debbie in 2017 ?
So why the continuous coverage – don’t get me wrong I feel sympathy for those flooded but the problem has become much worse in recent times – not because of “climate change” – but due to local governments allowing building on previously designated flood plains.
When I commenced work at Caloundra in 1986 this land was designated flood plain never to be built upon. It was mostly sugar cane and cattle agistment.
Now it is a major suburb established since the late 90’s to the present just waiting …
120
If the CSIRO climate model was correct, then the Pacific would have been in perpetual LaNina from 1850 to 2050.
The threshold for LaNina is the Nino34 region SST to be below 26C. This is what the CSIRO model gives for that region:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icmip5_tas_Amon_CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_-170–120E_-5-5N_n_su_+++_1850:2050.png
There would be no ElNinos because the threshold for ElNinos is 28C. This is how climate models rewrite history by cooling the past.
This model is an embarrassment to CSIRO as they do not like their 2300 prediction getting publicity:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icmip5_tas_Amon_CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_rcp85_-170–120E_-5-5N_n_su_+++.png
This is physically impossible on planet Earth. Once the open ocean surface temperature reaches 32C the sunlight does not get to the surface. There is perpetual darkness and the temperature regulates back to 30C where surface sunlight is in balance with heat loss.
90
As usual the Greens blame the coal and gas industry.
Quote Bandt 🙁
Coal and gas are fuelling these floods. The Government should make coal and gas corporations pay to clean up the mess.
“In real terms, people are getting less money than in previous floods and fewer people are eligible for the payment.
https://greensmps.org.au/articles/bandt-slams-federal-flood-assistance-payments-calls-coal-and-gas-corporations-pay-recovery
100
Every time I read something from the greens I wonder whether they could possibly be that stupid, whether they could possibly be that evil, or whether they could be both that stupid and that evil.
130
Yes Brenda and these delusional donkeys must be the looniest cretins on two legs IF they really believe their nonsense.
Yet about 10% of Aussies actually vote for these loonies and in some inner city electorates they sometimes even win a seat on Labor preferences. How can we send kids to school then to Uni and yet they end up with a total disregard for data or evidence?
100
And yet Bandt and all other Greens continue to rely totally on coal and other fossil fuels for their very existence.
Being inner city Melbourne, and having an opulent life style… everything they do, everything they eat, everything they have, is there because of coal and gas.
70
And dear leader Comrade Annerstaysha Bjelke Palace Chook, when asked about why there was no warning, well, she waffled and waffled and changed the subject, and when further asked why the BOM didn’t warn people Months ago, (well sort of, but hey, journalists are like that, eh!) dear leader responded (in a flash) that the BOM was Federal Government, and because it was so unprecedented, it changed so quickly and there was nothing
ourmy Government could do. (except look after the Unions that we as Government Ministers are beholden to, you know, they’re your kids you look after them, that’s not teachers jobs, and no public service contacts, or public transport or…..)Oh, please excuse my cynicism.
Tony.
Joh had a term for it, ‘feeding the chooks’ when it came to media conferences, and he was continually derided for that term. This Labor Government has now turned it into an art form.
131
The difference between Joh’s day and the current day is that back then it was clear who the chooks were and who was feeding them.
Now it is chook on chook action all the way.
80
Bit like the Daniel Andrews “pressers”. They were more like sermons than actual exchanges of useful information. Then for some reason the media people present at those “pressers” thought it impressive that he (or Sluggo Sutton) droned on for some interminable amount of time. When the actual message could have been summarised in about 3 soundbites.
70
It’s been clear to me for some days now that Annastazi and her media conspirators are preparing the way for a ‘not my fault’ defence regarding yet another mismanagement debacle at Wivenhoe. They’re doing this by constantly referring to the rains as unprecedented, unforseeable, unexpected, once in a zillion years, etc, etc. Meanwhile, as poor folks along the Brisbane River and elsewhere try to clear their homes, water levels remain high because Wivenhoe is still discharging.
30
We should perhaps remind Annastazi, when she blames the floods on ‘unprecedented rain’ that she is a subscribed member of the Climate Change cult – the very same cult that has been forecasting bigger, stronger, more unpredictable storms for years now. If that’s truly what she and they believe, when aren’t they prepared for the very weather they’re constantly forecasting?
40
At least Joh didn’t have to feed a palace chook.
I seem to remember reading about John Oxley in 1824 finding debris at some huge height above high tide level at the junction of the Bremer and Brisbane Rivers that would put all existing flood records to shame.
Anybody know that history or just how high it was?
50
Correction, it wasn’t John Oxley in 1824, it was Edmund Lockyer in 1825 and he reported 41 miles up the Brisbane River from Edenglassie [early Brisbane];
” Marks of drift grass and pieces of
wood washed up the sides of the banks, and up into the
branches of the trees, marked the floods to rise here upwards
of one hundred feet.”
That would be quite a flood.
40
That height was calculated by his son to be on a par with the big 1893 flood. It’s in the link to the BOM flood history page above.
20
Thanks Ken, should’ve checked that link. It’s very good.
10
Doesn’t the world of AGW enthusiasts start at around 1910?
Also, despite all the changes in thermometry, and particularly to instant electronic measurement (which Marohassy says hasn’t done the years of equilibration testing required as the international standard), one of the excuses for selecting such a date is that the measurement vehicle of earlier times cannot be calibrated to meet the requirements of modern thermometry. So all those tree rings and ice core historical interpretations are acceptable but actual temperature records before ~ 1910 are not? Really?
As an aside, how come the 2 biggest purveyors of the AGW hypothesis, the USA and the EU, had one shut down the parts of the ff system that made the USA energy independent, and both became dependent on Russian ff exports (? making a war crime to be answered on the grounds the associated payments for that imported ff is said to be what enables Putin to get around sanctions and carry out full-on barbaric warfare). Why is it ethical to burn such energy sources and release CO2 when it is regarded as not ethical to produce and burn one’s own??? This is the hypocrisy which above all else should damn the theory and the architects that developed it as they drive the West’s Democracies into penury! You don’t need a science degree to call out an obvious political death ray, especially one which is obviously designed to make make the West poor and its great enemies – Russia and China – into strong flourishing combatants.
50
Billions (Trillions?) wasted on unnecessary “research”/naval gazing and Green Grifting when what was/is really needed is investment in flood mitigation/water management (new Bradfield Scheme, etc?)
This goes well beyond incompetence and negligence. This is sabotage.
81
navel
30
The Russians would have sorted it out, we’ve got nazis too.
00
I have been to Lismore descending to the town from Lismore heights and all I can say is why would any person build on the river flood plain. I see there is a suggestion that all houses destroyed by flood should never be rebuilt , sounds like common sense to me.
41
Build on the rock and not upon the sand… tra la,
30
There goes half the major cities of the world, and almost half the world’s population.
10
SBS
The bias is pretty evident. No good reason for expecting it to be there except Global Warming is now Climate Change.
01
[…] There were Bigger Floods and Rain-bombs in the 1800’s […]
00