We are approaching a tipping point in the electricity system where there will not be enough dispatchable power available to get through windless nights. When solar and wind power are both out of action at the same time, clearly the lights will go out unless there is 100% backup from conventional power. Forget about grid-scale storage, there is none in sight for the foreseeable future that is feasible or affordable.
The RE enthusiasts get excited every time they record more penetration of wind and solar into the grid. They don’t appear to notice that the same AEMO data that record increasing penetration, also show zero penetration on windless nights. That is especially clear in South Australia where there is always a deficit when the wind is low overnight. They depend on brown coal power from Victoria to keep the lights on, and no amount of additional RE capacity will help.
Those periods of zero penetration are like the holes in the wall of a dam, or gaps in the fence around a paddock of sheep or cattle, or gaps in a flood protection levee. If the dam has a gap in the wall it ceases to function as a dam, the holes in the fence allow the stock to get out and gaps in a flood protection levee eliminate the protective effect.
Building more installed capacity of RE does not help on windless nights because when next to no power is being generated, increasing the installed capacity of the generators by a factor of five, ten or twenty still delivers next to nothing.
To see what that looks like in practice, see the chart from a paper by Paul McArdle who has been studying the low wind problem for many years. Jo Nova reproduced the chart in a recent post.
THE IRRIGATION SCHEME WITH NO WATER
We are approaching the situation of a massive irrigation scheme with all the infrastructure in place, dams, canals, pumping stations, and the like. The crops are planted but when we get to the growing season we find we there is not enough water in the dams for the system to work so the plants all die. This irrigation scheme is actually an addition to the regular farming system that still exists to there will be enough food but it will be very expensive if you count the cost of the useless irrigation system that the taxpayers have funded.
The point is that nobody checked the rainfall figures to be sure that the dams could be filled and the works were built in hope, on the back of government subsidies, without due diligence to check the viability of the project.
Our RE system will soon be revealed as an irrigation scheme without water, we just need to lose another coal-fired power station or two and we will be travelling without spare capacity to handle peak loads. Indeed we may scrape along without Liddell but when the massive Eraring plant goes we will be in deep trouble every time the wind is low. Get familiar with the wind data and tell your friends and relations about the NemWatch widget!
The widget. Be sure to explain that to be a success the green transition has to replace all the red, black and brown parts of the bars by green (wind) and gold (solar). Check the widget after sunset and see at a glance what that means in terms of additional windmills! You could overbuild to the skies and still the system fails when there is next to no wind anywhere in the NEM.
A media mandated, political requirement to get re-elected.
What could go wrong?
180
Typo in the first para Rafe.
10%% vs 100%
80
Thanks yarpos!
110
Always a bugga proof reading your own work.
100
It’s a true horror show of bad ideas and bad planning when you really inspect what is involved to turn totally electric.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/04/11/how-much-of-the-grid-must-be-upgraded/
130
When the whole thing crashes and burns. No one will be responsible, and everyone will agree, that anyone who thought it would work was clearly a fool.
290
Yes, this due “diligence thingy” – another elephant in the room. THe Clubroom of Engineers, The clubroom of Elites, etcetc. AS I read and have been saying: Bird-brained Herons KNOW where to fish – no use standing at a pond with no fish, yet WE as mankind insists on erecting WindNills to catch the wind that don’t blow. ( the shoal of fish is elsewhere )
242
Love the analogy.
70
Blocking high pressure stuck in the Bight is a sign that due diligence didn’t involve climate change.
61
The only way the S & W lunacy can sometimes work at all is if the entire UNRELIABLE, RUINABLE, TOXIC mess is backed up by RELIABLE, 24/7 BASE-LOAD energy like Coal, Gas Nuclear or Hydro.
To BELIEVE anything else is just crazy, delusional nonsense and yet most Govts / countries in the world still BELIEVE in the S & W idiocy.
So we effectively have to PAY for + build and maintain TWO energy systems instead of one BETTER + RELIABLE + 24/7 BASE-LOAD system that lasts for at least 50 years.
Now does anyone seriously not understand this very simple logic and reason?
350
Here AGAIN is the small King Island Hybrid system and everyone should check the meter at night time and then perhaps they might start to WAKE UP?
Just another total fra-d and con job and yet the loonies still BELIEVE.
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
180
Just checked out the King Is link, 9:40am EST, diesel 65%
160
at 7:40 pm EST diesel 100%
20
Lucky the sun is up @ 10an EST Diesel 98%
00
King and Flinders Islands are located at Bass Strait at 40deg South, in the famous Roaring Forties, you don’t get better wind resources than that.
Yet their diesels run day and night.
230
The standard fanboy response will be “well the obvious problem is not enough wind turbines” Its easier than thinking. There also must be a wave or tide add on coming surely.
100
Build more say the proponents of this nonsense. The new generation of batteries will solve the problem. Unfortunately it is political suicide to say anything contrary. As mentioned before we will continue to repeat the errors of others and nothing will ever come of it. The dim witted and brainwashed hoi polloi will have to wake up to these realities.
60
Dunno GlenM. After seeing the passive acceptance of covid injections and lockdowns, there is a fair chance that the hoi polloi will drink the cool aid, present their social credit passports, and accept their candle allowance with gratitude.
People go mad in droves and recover their sanity one at a time. And that will take a while.
210
I dont know if its political suicide or not, but I believe that the LNP thinks it is despite the last election.
40
“The dim witted and brainwashed hoi polloi will have to wake up to these realities.”
However this group of “the dim witted and brainwashed hoi poloi” that, I gather from your comment, accept climate change and its consequences is currently larger, better financed and with more political clout than that of the opposing group.
The reality is that the constant corrosive, abrasive and bitterly opposing attitudes of the two groups shows plainly both consist of the dim witted and brainwashed hoi polloi. Perhaps both groups could reflect on the aphorism “don’t sacrifice the good to chase the perfect.”
00
AGAIN here’s the truth from our then Chief scientist Dr Finkel. Remember this is a Senate inquiry and Dr Finkel was UNDER OATH and had to tell Sen MacDonald Qld the TRUTH.
He agreed that Aussies could STOP all co2 emissions today and the result would be NOTHING.
And the CSIRO also tell us the ENTIRE SH is a net co2 SINK and the NH is the net co2 SOURCE. See CSIRO Cape Grim TAS I’ve linked to many times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJY8xKknpms
190
I sent the CSIRO statement of the Southern Hemisphere being a net sink to the PM and the response:
This is obviously a boiler-plate response as it is 99% identical to other responses I have received from the PM’s department, no doubt sent by a lackey on his behalf. I have to assume he approves the content, though.
Even though I was quoting from the same science agencies that he accepts as experts, he disagrees with me for quoting their findings. The ‘argument’ in my letter was that we do not have to kowtow to international pressure to reduce our CO2 footprint as we have already achieved their stated aims.
It’s hard to change such blatant, illogical thinking.
170
It’s adamantine policy decided offshore and absolutely beyond the control of our government which can only do what its offshore masters dictate as for example purchase and operate nuclear submarines.
50
When you are going through hell, keep going.
Step 1: document the truth
Step 2: buy a backup generator
Step 3: wait for the natural consequences to kick in
Science and the enlightenment will return. It’s just that none of us will be around to see it.
200
I think must people here, who live in a situation that allows it, have gone down the back up generator path. It seems it will take a significant blackout before reality dawns. The election result may trigger something, with a few States hanging off responding to Federal proposals for gas plants. Wonder if they just dont want to be seen to support anything LNP or will make out its the best idea Labor ever had if they win despite Albanese.
70
Which is what happened after the SA blackout a few years back. All the major hospitality venues and supermarkets installed back up gennies. So, if there’s a repeat blackout in that state the damaging effects will not be so bad. There will be a low “hummm” sound over Adelaide, that’s all. Which is good but also bad. Because then the energy bureaucrats can say “Look, our RE grid works just fine”.
80
I think people will still notice they are travelling through dark streets back to their dark houses, that have no heating , cooling or refrigeration.
80
Thanks Rafe, the truth about our race to armageddon should be front and center during this Federal election, inform the people where we are going and what will likely happen when we get there, after all, there’s not many who won’t be affected by blackouts, it’s a wonder Palmer and Hanson haven’t been all over it.
80
Its a bit of a sweet spot really for energy crisis denial during the election. We have made it through summer, the talk of closing coal plants is a future thing, the narrative on wind and solar is still rainbows and unicorns although it seems to have crested the hype cycle. So I fully expect with will be all gushing “RE’ and EVs without acknowledgement that we have any issues at all.
Most of the general population doesn’t have much in the way of a STEM education and really dont comprehend the issues discussed here. Really they have no motivation to even think about it, with governments lying to them that all is rosey. Its also hard for many to think abstractly about problems and perceive consequences of a chain of actions.
Its going to come as quite a shock when reality smacks them in the face. This is one case where I would actually support a comprehensive witch hunt.
40
It’s like water from the tap, fuel from the service station, food on the shelves at the supermarket, and power at the flick of a switch ,they believe there is someone somewhere highly paid to work it all out and make it happen. it’s not for them to worry about, and rightly so.
It’s just that the wheels are getting a bit loose and some are about to fall off.
90
Yep, good summary. We take infrastructure for granted until its snatched away somehow.
20
Never forget that the claim that Humans are facing an EXISTENTIAL THREAT if we don’t lower co2 emissions is a complete LIE and FRA-DULENT nonsense.
Here’s the data since the start of the IND REV until today.
In 1800 the average Human life expectancy was under 40 and had been for the previous 200,000 years.
Here’s what happened in just 222 years.
So 200 K to reach the first 1 billion by 1800. Then just 127 years ( 1927) to reach 2 billion. Life exp under 45.
Then just 33 years ( 1960) to reach 3 billion. Life exp 50 years
Then just 14 years ( 1974) to reach 4 billion. Life exp 58.5 yrs
Then just 13 years ( 1987) to reach 5 billion. Life exp 63.4 yrs.
Then just 12 years ( 1999) to reach 6 billion. Life exp 66 yrs.
Then just 12 years (2011) to reach 7 billion people. Life exp 70 yrs.
Then just 12 years ( 2023) to reach 8 billion people. Life exp 73 + yrs. See link Macro-trends. As at 2022 life exp is 73 and population is over 7.9 billion people. THINK ABOUT THESE NUMBERS and the 7.9 bn Humans are OBVIOUSLY healthier today and wealthier today.
But the rate of increase in pop has declined since the 1960s, except Africa. Hooray for FOSSIL FUELS and of course they GENERATE over 80% of the World’s TOTAL energy today.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/life-expectancy
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The life exp above is for the entire world, but is much higher or 80 yrs + for wealthy OECD countries.
But poor Africa is catching up and today is about 63 years ( about the same as the world life exp in 1987) and over 1 billion more people since 1970 even after fighting the HIV/AIDS and Malaria disasters for over 40 years.
So where is this so called EXISTENTIAL CLIMATE THREAT in our poorest continent in the last half century? THINK ABOUT IT?
80
I often read about how life expectancy was only 40 years back two centuries ago. However whenever I wander through old graveyards, I don’t see many gravestones that confirm this claim. Childrens graves are more common which is very sad, but overall it seems folks lived as long back then as they do now.
I am probably wrong, but graveyards cause me to doubt those claims of past life expectancy thats all.
10
Has anyone read The Driven and Reneweconomy, the dribble these clowns write on those sites is breathtaking, their answer to wind droughts is MORE windmills, they claim the grid will handle a majority of EV charging at night with a tiny bit of improvement to the grid spread out over 15 years. !!
110
Right now SA is importing 52% and wind is supplying 2%, way to go, how is this going to work when NSW and VIC are struggling to keep their own lights on.
170
I look forward to the day when NSW and Victoria have to say no to SA.
The sooner it happens the better the outcome will be.
Reality has to hit and it has to hit hard, otherwise the politicians and bureaucrats will try to ignore it or spin it.
I can’t vote for any politician who is for more unreliables and the inevitable subsidies.
120
This is actually a GOOD thing.
In Australia it will need a major and catastrophic grid collapse, with massive economic damage, and sadly, probable major loss of life, to make the Sheeple, the Enemedia, the bureaucracy and politicians to wake up.
Then again, they mightn’t wake up even then. They are already too dumbed-down for that.
Their answer might be: “we need MORE wind and solar”…
160
Going through your list of people who need to wake up.
The sheeple are irrelevant. Awoken sheep is still a sheep. They have no sense of direction and only react when the flock is herded.
The enemedia will always follow the money. They are awake but live in an altered reality.
The bureaucracy similarly are awake. They simply run on inertia with the next promotion the only goal.
The politicians are awake but hiding under the bedsheets. The emperor’s new clothes is an apt analogy.
But going back to your first point about grid collapse. That might indeed prompt a little boy to utter the truth about the emperor’s new clothes.
From that point the politicians will find their courage one at a time, the bureaucracy will keep running on inertia, the enemedia will rewrite history and claim they always told the world the truth, and maybe, just maybe a new kelpie will give direction to the sheeple.
And then the sheeple will come to understand that the world needs more solar panels, windmills and batteries and will quietly accept that they should just sit quietly enjoying a resurgence in the candle industry.
100
I am waiting for the “OMG! We cant bury Hunters laptop anymore” moment with “RE” It cant be far off now. The MSM pivot should be quite something.
The response that we always need more wind turbines is very reminiscent of Idiocracy and the people wondering why their crops failed as they irrigated with more and more “BRAWNDO” energy drink instead of water, because “its got electrolytes!”
20
Yes we need a proper energy crisis before the public take notice. The elites and politicians will then have to run for cover.
20
The Green fantasy is embedded in the education system. That’s one reason for this idiocy.
Why Teachers Get Away with Preaching Green Rubbish
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/education/2022/04/why-australian-teachers-can-preach-green-rubbish/
Reality always wins. Everyone is about to learn that, the hard way.
130
The system is training our own Greta Thunbergs, how much urging would a 9 year old need to take Friday off school to protest some half a*sed cause.
80
What the hell are they teaching “engineers” in “universities these days?
No real engineer could possible agree wind and solar schemes are worthwhile or would want to work on them.
I have previously mentioned here a conversation I had with a recent mech-eng graduate who had never heard of a Carnot cycle heat engine…
110
There is a lot of engineering put into creating a nuclear submarine. Do the engineers creating those designs agree with nuclear wars?
Engineers do the job they get paid to do to produce a result that is hopefully more cost effective than most layment could achieve.
The future design of the electricity grid is being directed by the Energy Security Board
Dr Kerry Schott AO – Independent Chair Energy Security Board (Arts Degree)
David Swift – Independent Deputy Chair Energy Security Board (South Australia – all green tinged so primary education irrellevent)
Clare Savage – Chair Australian Energy Regulator (Commerce)
Anna Collyer – Chair Australian Energy Market Commission (Law)
Drew Clarke AO (- Acting) Chair Australian Energy Market Operator (Surveyor)
Why would you have an engineer involved in planning electricity supply systems?
121
Exactly. Can’t have facts get in the way of the unreliables evangelists.
90
Even if you did you only have to engage and Engineer with the preferred biases. The Engineer label doesn’t guarantee a sane outcome. Engineers being religious believers in “RE” and Engineers needing to protect income and careers are a major reason we are where we are
50
The inevitable was set in stone from the time the first non-dispatchable generator was permitted to connect to the network.
Retail cost of electricity will continue to climb.
Wholesale cost of electricity will continue to fall. That is the inevitable result of having an increasing proportion of generating capacity with negative marginal cost of generation. This trend is clearly visible now and is the reason coal plants are no longer economically viable. This is from the Energy Security Board:
https://esb-post2025-market-design.aemc.gov.au/32572/1619564199-part-a-p2025-march-paper-esb-final-for-publication-30-april-2021.pdf
From 2025, there will be a new payment for dispatchable capacity. That will encourage more batteries, gas fired plant and hydro; probably in that order. Batteries can be up and running inside a year with little or no environmental hurdles.
It is improbable that a new coal plant will be built in Australia.
There is now a solid disconnect between wholesale electricity price and retail price. They are separate trajectories. Wholesale falling and retail rising. The latter is the result of all the additional investment in stuff that makes intermittent viable.
Has anyone seen a fall in their electricity price – service charge and unit cost combined?
So governments are being told that wholesale price is falling, making coal plants unviable – both true. What they are not being told is that wholesale price is an ever diminishing proportion of electricity bills. It is down to 20% of the cost in NSW. The proportion will continue to decrease as retail prices continue to climb.
Has anyone seen a fall in their electricity price – service charge plus unit cost?
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“The inevitable was set in stone from the time the first non-dispatchable generator was permitted to connect to the network.”
Yep, just like Uber was ‘allowed’ to operate illegally, there was already a fixed set of rules that cabs had to operate under but somehow , palms were greased and it was allowed, just like these horrid orange e-scooters you see littering the footpaths and roadsides everywhere, how is that allowed.
100
I consider electricity the opposite of Uber. Uber generally offers better value and better service. If that was not the case then they would not be used because the market has a choice.
Electricity consumers do not have a choice with regard subsidies other than making a choice to take the government handout or just pay for others to take it. A lot of Australians have chosen to take the subsidy to their financial benefit but some are not in a position to take the subsidy and just pay more than their fair share.
41
Not exactly.
30
Meanwhile the wind turbine manufacturers in Europe are complaining that they are going broke (possibly a plea for subsidies) because the cost of materials to make them (e.g. steel for towers and drive shafts, magnets) is shooting up, while possible customers are trying to reduce the cost of units (to meet expectations of cheaper electricity). And their electricity bills are going up.
And I see that there is a (minor) rush to build wind turbines in NW Tasmania, to take advantage of the (as yet built – or even approved) second BassLink Another subsidy from the taxpayer to enable the wind turbine lobby to make money. I wonder what they would say if asked to pay for that essential (to them only) connection.
80
Morrison started the second Basslink with a gift of $56 million of hard-earned taxpayer money.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/accelerating-second-bass-strait-interconnector
(I had to check that, I thought only Turnbull would be so reckless. You know, we keep getting told Morrison is not an Extreme Green like his mentor, Turnbull.)
SEE also:
https://infrastructurepipeline.org/project/marinus-link
50
“Morrison started the second Basslink with a gift of $56 million of hard-earned taxpayer money.”
Just remember laborgreens would be 100 times worse.
We are not going to get good government, just least worst.
70
Very expensive project just for redundancy. They have already proved they can run Tas hydro dry over the existing Basslink.
30
When you make the “transition” based on a fad or false belief, their is some prospect that it is not soundly based.
The transition to intermittents is simply impossible. It will eventually consume all human endeavour or just end as its insanity is recognised.
Australia is uniquely placed globally to make intermittents almost work. Is Australia making a good choice in supplying iron ore and coal to China so it can be turned into the most powerful war machine on the planet while getting wind turbines and solar panels in return? Australia has the resources that China needs to build its war machine. Australia gets shiny trinkets and religious symbols in return. Trinkets paid in return for economic might and world dominance.
70
Just like your water and gas bill, $5 worth of product and $250 worth of fees and charges.
90
In Vicdanistan the price of water went way up so government encouraged, subsidised and, for new houses, made compulsory water tanks.
Then the price of water use was decreased but the fees and charges unrelated to consumption increased so there was no point in having water tanks to collect your own rainwater.
80
Batteries are just a joke in terms of grid-scale power. They only function as a bandaid on the open wounds inflicted by intermittent energy. They also generate revenue by playing on the market instability that intermittent power guarantees.
https://www.riteon.org.au/netzero-casualties/#2112
Pumped hydro is a joke as well, but it takes longer the explain.
120
The main revenue stream for batteries is the FCAS market. The SA battery takes about 10% of the FCAS market now and the new Victorian battery will take a much bigger slice. The battery to be installed on the Liddell site will be similar size to to the VBB. So these batteries will further erode the economics of coal generators. They eliminate the need for spinning reserve.
There is massive capital investment going into enabling the grid to operate with non-dispatchable generators. That cost is already sunk or in the planning stage and the process for cost recovery baked into the income streams of the providers.
Australia will not change course unless there is a highly competitive source of dispatchable power.
The time to change the course of history was before the first intermittent generator was permitted to connect.
If you are in a position with roof space for your own self-contained power supply then that is the way to go. There are no benefits of scale for weather dependent generators so the best place for them is at the load they serve. The retail cost of electricity will continue its inevitable rising trend.
50
But are the cost of interconnectors included in your bills or paid out of your income tax as a subsidy (so wind farmers can sell their product)?
If these “intermittent suppliers” had to pay all the costs there would be less enthusiasm among the money men.
30
They are included in your bill. South Australians are now paying for synchronous condensers and will do so for decades to come. New South Welshmen with soon be paying for a high capacity link to keep the South Australian grid powered and get some intermittency in return that will further hobble their coal generators.
Most of Snowy 2 will be paid for through electricity bills.
From memory I recall that the diesel generators installed in SA were paid for from general revenue. Their operating costs would be included in electricity bills.
10
Kojonup in WA embracing the building of wind farm, hope they have informed themselves of the hazards of sound and pressure pulses and shadow strobing at either end of the day when the sun is low in the sky.
50
Rafe mentions the imminent closure of Liddell and probably even Eraring.
Okay then, consider this.
The most recently constructed coal fired power plant in Australia is the single Unit at Kogan Creek in Queensland, a 750MW SuperCritical unit, the largest single generating Unit in Australia. It was commissioned in 2007. (Incidentally, the five youngest coal fired plants in the Country are all in Queensland, with ten Units all up, at Stanwell, Callide C, Millmerran, Tarong North and Kogan Creek, all of them commissioned since 1996)
Kogan Creek will one day be up for closure, probably the last of them.
So, not only will they need to keep going with the construction of those renewable plants of choice, but they’ll need to replace ALL of the currently operating plants as well.
Oh, and every solar panel currently atop every roof in Australia will also have ceased operation.
Tony.
250
Not often mentioned by the media is the Federal Government’s current proposal being ignored by the Queensland Government for one new HELE coal fired power station to be built in NTH QLD, the Federal Government is offering to underwrite the finance. This of course requires State Government Planning Approval and other requirements.
Also proposed are four gas fired generators: one each for VIC and SE QLD and two for NSW. To date one for the NSW Hunter Valley has received approval, recently.
40
Palletchook would cut off her nose to spite her face in order to make SCOMO look bad, stand by for more nothingness.
60
Chairman Dan would also do that, and all of the Labor State Premiers have politicised the pandemic and Forum (National Leaders Cabinet) for party political purposes.
I have read comments claiming that PM Morrison has a smirk on his face since the Opposition Leader tripped up several times on different occasions unable to answer questions from journalists. Well I would too if I was him and been subjected to character assassination smearing and lies, spread by ABC and other media who also ignore good stories in his favour (Federal Government Cabinet initiatives), from late 2018 through the 2019 Federal Election and ever since. Now he is criticised for daring to enjoy watching the implosion of his political opponents who have been so intent on damaging him and the government he leads.
70
Geraldine Doogue told Radio National listeners one morning last November that everybody in the organization was working for the election of federal Labor; one can only surmise that Albanese’s doltishness was known but what the hell they’ve gone with him anyway.
80
It seems nutty for the Commonwealth to be getting right outside their lane, building energy projects that they have no constitutional authority to build … tipping money into Queensland where that project is not even wanted by the people or the state government.
All they need to do is abandon LRET and stop the wealth transfer to renewables and immediately we will see stations like Liddell get the refurbishment they need. All they need to do is nothing and we would all be better off!
It’s a classic case of breaking the legs of the industry, and then generously offering them a crutch paid for out of income taxes.
70
The Abbott Coalition Government 2013-2015 abolished Labor’s carbon tax and renewable energy surcharge on electricity bills, and also lowered the Labor RET.
More recently the Morrison Coalition Government legislated to end subsidies and RET from 2030 and strengthened company laws to force greater competition between electricity supply companies. I assume that to end the subsidies immediately would have resulted in substantial compensation claims from existing recipients. However the end timing announcement has resulted in fewer applications for new installations because none built now would be completed and receive subsidies after 2029.
But noting that electricity supply, water supply and many others are State responsibility to supply and to approve development applications or construct.
30
Forgotten Bluewaters Tony? Built in 2009.
10
Thanks Graeme#4,
and I suppose that’s always been my biggest failing since I started all this at the beginning of 2008, the fact that I only covered the AEMO coverage area, and that’s all of the power generation etc in Australia, all of that which is East of that WA border.
The data for the AEMO was easy to find and while the WA power generation was considerably smaller, there was nowhere near as much readily available information, (at that time) and of more importance, data for WA’s power generation, so I just covered that major area.
Incidentally, while Queensland started constructing SuperCritical Units back in 2001 with the two Units Callide C, 2002 with the two Units at Millmerran, 2003, the single Unit at Tarong North, and then the Kogan Creek Unit, with six SC Units in all, that WA plant is the older technology, strange when SC was on offer.
And now we are at Advanced UltraSuperCritical, two technology levels higher than those SC Units in Queensland.
So yep, I have never really concentrated on WA, and as hard bitten as this might sound, there’s just not enough hours in the day to start adding it to what I already do, so my apologies for that.
Tony.
120
Actually AEMO also now handles WA, via the WEM Data Dashboard. This website link should help:
https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/wholesale-electricity-market-wem/data-wem/data-dashboard#generation-map
20
Tony,
Your comment has me thinking of a joke told over a campfire during a week of trail work in the wilderness of Washington State. I had just split wood for the fire using the crew leader’s axe.
He said: That’s the best darn axe I’ve ever had. I’ve replaced the handle three times and the head twice.
50
Nice story John, an old one and a good one, but on a point of detail, if he replaced the head twice he would have gone through a lot more than three handles:)
60
We only got them because we are a hundred years in the past, up here in ‘Joh country’, while the latte sipping chardonnay socialists down in the ‘wonderful socialist enclaves’ were turning up their collective noses at coal, we were still stubbornly believing in the 200 year old technology, and bravo for that.
Let’s wait 3-5 years and see whose lights go out last.
50
With respect to Queensland’s coal fired power plants
Yeah!
I was asked to make a submission to the Queensland 50% renewables by 2030, and I did just that. The idea was to have 50% of all generated power coming from renewables by 2030.
And here, let me keep this as mathematically simple as possible.
In 2015, the year before the ‘Plan’ by the Qld Government, Coal fired power contributed 73% of all the generated power in the State.
Total power consumption was increasing by 2% each year, and even adding in the downturn from the ChinaVirus, it’s still close to that 2% increase. (last year around 63TWH, close to one third of all consumed power in Australia, and with Qld now the second largest consumer of electrical power in Oz.)
So, to actually achieve that 50% by renewables, then there had to major cuts to coal fired power generation, and going just on those basic percentage figures, even the most mathematically challenged could see that.
One of the Major findings of that committee was there would be ….. NO CLOSURES of coal fired power plants in that time. (yep, and why did I even suspect that right from the outset)
Oh, and now, here we are in 2022, with only eight years until 50% renewables by 2020.
And the contribution from coal fired power in the State of Queensland in the last 365 day 12 Month Year ….. umm, 75%.
So coal fired power’s contribution has actually INCREASED.
Tony.
I had some slight criticism from some people about the very last sentence of my highly detailed 15 page Submission, (which from making some inquiries of actual Panel Members was not even seen, let alone read) That last sentence was …..quote …..If I might close on a personal note here, in 2030, I will be in my late 70’s. I most probably will have long forgotten this submission, as will perhaps everyone on the panel, and even everyone in Queensland. However, I can guarantee you this. In 2030 Queensland will not have 50% of its power sourced from Renewable power, no matter who says it is achievable….. unquote.
I stand by that to this day.
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Queensland Government on Gillard Federal Labor RET;
https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/71884
20
I assume that most here know abut the AUKUS Agreement and nuclear submarines planned for the RAN?
And also the investigations by the Federal Government earlier and ongoing regarding modular nuclear generators?
Subject still to gaining cooperation from both the House of Representatives and the Senate in Canberra to life the existing legislated bans on nuclear, and the State’s complimentary bans, after the AUKUS announcement following successful negotiations between PM Morrison and the UK and US leaders, our Federal Government has been in discussion with the UK Government and Rolls Royce UK about nuclear generators.
The information below should be of interest;
https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/manufacturers-going-nuclear
40
Recent Government experience in Australia demonstrates that few countries are as self-destructive as Australia is.
Australia once had a promising future.
Now the only promising thing is certain disaster.
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I disagree, too many good reasons why I believe this to post here, but to begin consider the common wealth of realisable assets minerals and energy reserves.
12
I will add what former Prime Minister John Howard told Paul Murray on Sky this week about the pandemic, he said that he had discussed with Prime Minister Morrison, Treasurer Frydenberg and others the State introduced (State emergency powers legislation in State Parliaments) lockdowns and related recession and how to deal with that economic downturn. The right action was taken, Howard said, economic stimulus by funding employers and employees during the lockdowns and restrictions.
And now, GDP growth is 3.5 per cent which is v very long term average for the economy here, and unemployment falling to a record low. And before somebody claims the statistics are flawed remember that the formula has not changed, but job vacancies and applicant shortages have.
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‘Now the only promising thing is certain disaster.’
The utopian socialists strongly disagree with that statement.
21
We have everything except the executive management to run it.
20
and Mad Max agreed with what you are saying back in the 80’s David
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mna0oLUYoQ
then we could talk about Gough Whitlam breaking the commonwealth seal on our constitution
or how Bob Hawke tried to get the Queen to sign the changes made to our constitution on a trip visiting Australia while he was prime minister that she refused to sign
00
David, the vast number of those callimg themselves engineers are in the civil and building fields. I have found some of those do not even know the diffence between cement and concrete beside having no idea of properties and being able to specify a concrete mix. The chief scientist Finkel is suppose to be an electrical engineer but never actually practised as one and seems to have no idea of freqency control (60 Hz). The first chief scientist back some 40 years ago )was a chemical engineer who had experience in the mineral industry. He would have known about themodynamics and heat transfer as I do
10
This unfolding energy disaster down here is a continuation of what’s happened in Europe. I’m guessing that the aluminum smelter in Newcastle will shut down before Eraring closes, because the risk of the pots solidifying is just too high without 24/7 thermal generation. That will put 10% back into the NSW grid, but for all the wrong reasons.
The situation in Europe was also a big eye opener for what we can expect down here. Last year they suffered a 40% reduction in wind output across the entire continent which lasted for more than three months, including into December, when they have almost no solar. That event was not predicted as a possibility in their models, which appear to have been deliberately biased. Despite this massive failure, the green zealots shout for more RE to solve the issue, but as Rafe points out the obvious here, one stationary turbine produces the same output as 1 million stationary turbines. In GB, Boris has not ordered 8 nuclear plants to be online in the next 8 years and now wants 25% of energy to come from nuclear, which is a direct admission that RE has failed, even though he won’t say those words out loud.
Down here, you can see how the big RE lobby, which is made rich with forced taxpayer donations, is funding fake “independents”, in the hope of being able to influence even more free taxpayer funds to be directed their way. The sad news is that it looks like you need to have a big failure with negative consequences before common sense is allowed to prevail these days and even then it’s no guarantee of creating a turnaround.
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“In GB, Boris has not ordered 8 nuclear plants to be online in the next 8 years and now wants 25% of energy to come from nuclear…”
has or has not?
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typo – has ordered
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-goes-nuclear-on-britain-s-energy-needs-pledges-eight-new-plants-20220408-p5abuy.html
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Do you, or indeed Boris, really think he will be in power in 8 years?
20
Boris will probably be outed at the next election, but the nuclear reactors will remain regardless as to who wins.
10
As Anton points out there will be coal and gas in the energy mix for many years to come. As renewables/batteries replace more and more of the coal and gas, it will be distributed by the grid, which crosses state borders, as it does now. To point to South Australia and say that it should not utilise power from the grid, is nearsighted.
For the size of the grid, there will be renewable energy available in one area, while there will be a deficit in another, that is why there is a grid
The sky is not falling
03
Batteries are a joke and they will be much more expensive in future, despite absurd claims of “plummeting costs.”
During windless nights across the whole of SE Australia there is no spare RE to send anywhere and no amount of extra capacity will help.
SA is leading the way to demonstrate the failure of the RE transition and that failure will be obvious in other states when more coal stations close.
20
Batteries do not produce electricity !
They cannot ever replace coal and gas.
In SA, since gas often makes up a large percentage of supply, the battery there is charged by gas
Elsewhere on the east coast, the batteries are charged using by coal fired power, just like Snowy 2.
20
I have guarded optimism about the prospect of explaining the energy crisis to our friends and relations, while I gave up trying to explain the climate caper long ago. Climate realists have spent up to 40 years fighting the good fight (for those who started early) to twenty years for many and ten years in my case.
There is no way to make progress on climate realism in the public debate so countless hours have been spent going nowhere.
People can understand wind droughts and they are easily observed in the public records of AEMO and teh other sites that use them. If they have a scrap of interest they can understand the levee-wall effect of wind droughts and also the futility of expecting more Snowy2.0 schemes to spring up and the pathetic capacity of so-called big batteries.
Nobody says it will be easy but it can be done while changing the public mind on climate change can not be done until public education is radically reformed.
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Unfortunately, green ideology doesn’t follow any logic. Regardless of the number or magnitude of the failures, their path never changes. I blame the media for allowing this situation to unravel, because in a democracy it’s their role to question and challenge the orthodoxy, or in this case the ideology, but when you become part of the ideology, the entire system fails. The ideological push for RE has created the biggest waste of money and resources in human history and it’s now set to create the biggest population collapse in human history, as firm energy sources are abandoned without a replacement and in a world where more energy is consumed every year to feed the growing population of the developing world.
Yes, it is sad that no progress has been made but when you’re dealing with an extreme religious belief, people will die for their cause before they admit their cause is without merit.
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No offense Mr. Champion,
But we went off the cliff a good while back.
Next step will be gravitational enforcement .
Nature (she has a way about things).
Build Back Bettor.
How long was the Dark Age?
I also mistakenly thought we were in ‘policy’ debate.
I also thought Spock was the new way.
10
Better … the ‘o’ is still kinda relevant.
We’re putting all the wealth of western civilization in the pot.
8s beat Aces, right?
10
It’s not enough that the marxists are fouling our institutions, they are now rampaging through our turbine halls.
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South Australia is the supposed poster child for “renewables”, with wind and solar supplying on average about 60% of demand.
Demand varies from about 1,200 MW overnight to an evening peak of up to 2,300 MW.
To keep the lights on, SA still has 2,900 MW of gas and diesel generators available, and just last night wind delivered 100 MW (nameplate capacity 2,100 MW), solar zero, while 700 MW of supply was delivered from Victoria.
00
SA always has to import coal power from Victoria when the wind is low. They could use more gas but the coal power is cheaper and often there is not enough gas even if they stretched to the limit of the local supply.
10