We can hear the angst and confusion — Another “nasty La Nina?”, “Something weird is going on”, “They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave”. Oh no!
These are not the words we’d expect to hear from experts who can 97% predict the climate a century from now. The bad news for the modelers is that the climate on Earth seems to be controlled more by the Pacific Oscillation than anything else and they have no idea what drives that pattern, so they can’t predict it more than a few months ahead, and sometimes not even then. And if they can’t predict the Pacific — they can’t predict anything. The hottest of hot years are El Nino, and the coldest years are La Nina and the greatest modelers the world-has-ever-known still get their barbecue summers wrong. The droughts, the floods and the bushfires follow the swinging surface water of the worlds largest ocean. Whenever they happen, the models say “climate change” but the models never tell us which will hit us this time next year.
So here we are with hints that there might be another La Nina, a third in a row, and Oh-the-disappointment! The modelers thought there would be more El Ninos — oh Queen of Global Heating. Instead, in the last 40 years, La Nina’s seem to be getting more common. The models were wrong.
And this failure is of the Grande Mal kind.
Holy Smoke — the Pacific matters
As William Kinninmonth so incisively pointed out — the oceans are 4 kilometers deep and most of the water is only a few degrees above freezing, even under the tropical Pacific. There is a world of cold down there, and the layer of warm water on top is but a thin skin. If that thin skin of warm water rests undisturbed, the air can heat above. But all it takes is a change in dominant currents, or tradewinds, or some new deep sea magma vent to stir up the ocean and the top layers mix. The gargantuan deep blue blob of 3 kilometer thick salty cold water promptly rises up and sucks the warmth out of the sky.
The insipid weak vapor above is no match for the vast energy sink below.
….
CBS NEWS: Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up
Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes. It’s becoming the nation’s unwanted weather guest and meteorologists said the West’s megadrought won’t go away until La Nina does.
The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.
“They (La Ninas) don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino.
That sound you hear is the long term forecasts snapping:
An Associated Press statistical analysis of winter La Ninas show that they used to happen about 28% of the time from 1950 to 1999, but in the past 25 winters, they’ve been brewing nearly half the time. There’s a small chance that this effect could be random, but if the La Nina sticks around this winter, as forecast, that would push the trend over the statistically significant line, which is key in science, said L’Heureux. Her own analysis shows that La Nina-like conditions are occurring more often in the last 40 years. Other new studies are showing similar patterns.
The real problem is this is just one of many things the models get wrong and unlike smaller things, it can’t be just “tuned to fit”:
What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe, according to Columbia University climate scientist Richard Seager and MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.
A third dry year for Eastern America will be bad in so many ways. Imagine how useful it would be to everyone if the climate models actually worked and could have told dam managers, farmers and foresters in 2019 that the next three years would be dry? This would be worth billions, but instead the “science” of climate change is a politically captured corrupt sect that shuns alternate ideas, exiles heretics and ignores the Sun, the Moon, Space Weather, the ball of magma we stand on, and pretends that the only thing that matters is a gas your car makes.
And they know it. They’re deleting what they knew: NASA hides page saying the Sun was the primary climate driver, and clouds and particles are more important than greenhouse gases
Space-weather can change the climate
- Can the Moon change our climate? Can tides in the atmosphere solve the mystery of ENSO?
- The Moons’ influence on the atmosphere over Australia
- New Science 25: Seven possible ways the sun could change our cloud cover
- Is the Sun driving ozone and changing the climate?
- The North Atlantic jet stream correlates with Solar output over a millennium
- Australian – Asian rainfall linked to solar activity for last 6000 years
- New paper shows solar activity is linked to the Greenland climate even 20,000 years ago
- and so many more…
I observed four years ago that all the warming was due to the El Niño cycle, which includes La Niña. See my http://www.cfact.org/2018/01/02/no-co2-warming-for-the-last-40-years/. A second step up has occurred but the pattern holds. All the warming is coincident with two super El Niños.
I think it is just variable upwelling. A naturally oscillating verticle circulation. El Niño is when it pauses and La Niña is when it moves. The starts and stops are definately chaotic so nicely unpredictable, including repeating La Niñas. AGW is not involved, making CO2 sensitivity zero.
354
I tend to agree about the seemingly random nature of cold water upwelling and its distribution via the Humboldt current. There is a pattern according to multi decadal observations but alas it is far too short in duration to ascertain any real patterns. What is striking is the resilience of this current setup.
91
David >”A second step up has occurred”
I don’t think there’s a general appreciation of how great the first step was. I surprised myself in the ‘Doomer’ thread replying to Simon who had quoted RSS’s TLT linear trend, which was:
Obviously it is only the El Nino spikes that encroach on the yellow model band in Fig. 2. Tropical (30S to 30N) except mid 1990s. Smooth those out an the models are left high and dry.
Given it was a models vs observations issue I sought to explain that both ENSO and quasi-60yr PDO/AMO oscillation must first be removed from observations before comparing to models (they don’t do ENSO/cyclicity) with the 2000 – 2022 period containing the 2016 El Nino as a prime example.
I thought applying a 5 yr (60 month) filter to RSS LT would provide a suitable graph for comparison – not so. There was still an obvious 0.3K regime shift 2014 – 2018 even after 60 month smoothing:
https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2022/mean:60
Given the flat decade prior (see graph), this completely demolishes the notion that a linear trend describes the data in any of those RSS series.
And yes, the second step means it will take a string of La Ninas to return the system to neutral – as is happening now.
41
>”…both ENSO and quasi-60yr PDO/AMO oscillation must first be removed from observations before comparing to models (they don’t do ENSO/cyclicity)”
By this method:
‘Application of the singular spectrum analysis technique to study the recent hiatus on the global surface temperature record’
Diego Macias, Adolf Stips, Elisa Garcia-Gorriz (2014)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25208060/
I agree with the Foster & Rahmstorf (2011) methodology (see below) to a degree but their time frame is way to short and technique way too simplistic – they miss the recent downturn in the secular trend (a curve) that Macias et al above identify. Also their analysis has been overcome-by-events:
‘Global temperature evolution 1979–2010’
Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf (2011)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022
Worth comparing and getting a handle on the respective approaches and outcomes of these two papers I think.
21
Apologies, the full Macias et al paper is here:
‘Application of the singular spectrum analysis technique to study the recent hiatus on the global surface temperature record’
Diego Macias, Adolf Stips, Elisa Garcia-Gorriz (2014)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0107222
BTW Foster & Rahmstorf (2011) was cited in the IPCC AR5 report (2013) Chapter 10:
10 DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE: FROM GLOBAL TO REGIONAL
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
F&R11 fitted their narrative nicely. Macias et al came too late but would never have been cited anyway, given their finding that the Secular Trend (ST) had a non-CO2 negative downturn at the end:
They could NEVER have that in an IPCC assessment report.
21
I no longer trust RSS. I never liked that they use a climate model in their algorithm, but they tracked with UAH pretty well. Then about a year ago they suddenly reconfigured so it looked hot like GISS.
UAH shows each of the two steps as being about 0.2 degrees, or about 0.4 in 44 years and counting. See https://wattsupwiththat.com/global-temperature/ Note that “per decade” makes no sense when dealing with a step function like this.
All the warming looks to be super El Niño driven. When you cause that much heat in the atmosphere it is perfectly plausible for the subsequent La Niña not to take it all out. It then raises the baseline for the ongoing non warming oscillation that is obviously there as well.
Note too that the heat does not come from the El Niño, as that is just a lack of cooling.
82
David >”Note that “per decade” makes no sense when dealing with a step function like this”
Exactly. That is why the application of a linear trend through steps is statistically inappropriate as in the RSS quote upthread.
A linear trend describes data that is essentially linear e.g. long-running tide guage MSL – not steps.
Fine if the intra-step data is linear (which it is, and flat), but the linear trend ceases at the step.
21
David >”Note too that the heat does not come from the El Niño, as that is just a lack of cooling”
Quantified here:
As El Niño builds, Pacific Warm Pool expands, ocean gains more heat
Gregory C. Johnson,Abigail N. Birnbaum (2016)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071767
Abstract
Results
Problem is: the IPCC claim that ocean heat gain (93% of observed planetary energy gain) for AGW. They do so by speculative attribution i.e. not by physical evidence. Their wording is – “the expected mechanism” and “air-sea fluxes”. Expected = speculation.
That is scientific fraud.
41
>”Problem is: the IPCC claim that ocean heat gain (93% of observed planetary energy gain) for AGW. They do so by speculative attribution i.e. not by physical evidence. Their wording is – “the expected mechanism” and “air-sea fluxes”. Expected = speculation. That is scientific fraud.”
Here it is:
10 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change:
from Global to Regional
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
Given the weight of the ocean heat component (93%), the whole anthropogenic climate change edifice rests on that one word – expected.
41
>”both ENSO and quasi-60yr PDO/AMO oscillation must first be removed from observations before comparing to models (they don’t do ENSO/cyclicity)”
They do reanalysis in retrospect instead but it doesn’t go well:
ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models
Michael Mayer, John T. Fasullo, Kevin E. Trenberth & Leopold Haimberger (2016)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3057-z
Abstract
Conclusions
Remember, this is after-the-fact reanalysis.
21
David, have a look at the posters at this site https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/rainfall-poster/ In posters there is an explanation of SOI and the relationship to El Nino and la Nina. Further you will see graphs of SOI and IPO going back to 1890. The poster with the cyclone tracks may give the most information as it gives some indication of cyclones coming from the Indian ocean. I have been recording daily SOI from the longpaddock site since 2015. I have tried to get a relationship to give me the averages pressure so I can make predictions with input pressures at Darwin and Tahiti. Something strange happened from 19th of April to 24 th of May. The slope of my relationship of the form y=mx+c went from positive to negative and back to positive while the intercept blew out. It is possible that there was a measuring error (at Darwin) or that the pressure at Darwin was unusually low. My longer term aim is to relate Darwin pressures with Darwin tides so I can predict the SOI and La Nina
01
Thankyou for your comment. I had myself wondered if the sea level rise measured in my local lake had more to do with the El Nino cycle than with anything else.
When reading the first (and last) IPCC report – I know! – I came to the conclusion that the evidence they were publishing was suggesting a variable nature of water vapour behaviour which was nicely unpredictable.
Many may say that we cannot put God where human knowledge stops – but what strikes me is the sheer number of times the God of the Bible says outright he controls the rain, clouds, winds, storms.. and climate. Then you mention the depths of the sea. And then also Job is asked “Hast thou entered into the springs of the sea? or hast thou walked in the search of the depth?” (Job 38:16) There were some using Monte Carlo modelling for clouds .. why should be be so sure God does not love to play dice too?
20
Respect that science, you craven socialist useful idiot greenie modellers, destroyers of our civilisation.
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Which part(s) of our civilisation have these “craven socialist useful idiot greenie modellers, destroyers of our civilisation” destroyed?
219
Academic integrity
Journalistic integrity
Political integrity
Language (Decarbonization is one of the dumbest words of all time)
The power grid
The confidence of children in their future
In the US, the economy, and soon the ability of poor people to buy food
A good and functional mix of renewable and reliable energy could have been built if green zealotry had not poisoned common sense and co-operation.
201
Evidence for this link?
213
There’s no link, it’s simply a statement on the effects of Green Zealotiousness.
121
He is stating that these things are caused by green zeal. No link though.
19
no link needed,
Everyone of his points is self evident and part of the leftist agenda.
Except the last sentence…. Renewables as part of a stable grid.. nope !!
71
Rational thought. Common sense.
22
“Rational thought. Common sense.”
Don’t say that, you will confuse GA !
30
Are you restricted to words per day or something?
What is it that you want a link to?
61
Hey b, just clarify, I do not think renewables (BS term) can provide grid baseload.
I was just thinking wind solar can have some uses, farms, cabins, home lights, parking lots and such.
I had thought that use of these things were originally intended to reduce fossil fuel (another BS) usage.
Then they went full Net Zero.
Or in common language, out of their minds.
Hey Gee, do you like plants?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9501805/John-Kerry-says-need-CO2-atmosphere.html
40
Yes, niche uses only !
30
Possibly the WORST.
00
They have certainly destroyed a lot of our electricity supply and economic progress.
Our manufacturing sector has slowly but surely been eroded by the green slime infection that attacks everything.
And then the is the moronic “virtue-seeking” and “political correctness”, anti-family and morality attacks..
And none of it backed by anything remotely scientific.
101
woof!
217
no Gee, your sound is “yap” !
101
It really is the perfect system. No matter what happens ‘climate change’ covers it. Approve home construction on flood plains and they get flooded ‘climate change’. Lack of forward planning and massive population growth, means water supplies run out ‘climate change’. Mismanaged fuel loading in forest areas, cause massive bushfires ‘climate change’ When power supply can no longer meet demand, because reliable generation has been phased out. That will be ‘climate change’ causing an increase in demand.
421
I’m not sure if you have been following the current events in the South Pacific, an area largely ignored by the LNP for the last 9 years until China’s interest became more apparent, but the governments there are all very concerned about the effects of climate change on their communities. Your comment, naturally enough, focusses on the role climate change currently plays in the Western World but the South Pacific Islanders seem in little doubt both that climate change is happening and that it is caused by humans.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00289/full
In Australia the political parties are steadily moving toward accepting the view that climate change is a problem that needs tackling as is shown by the election of David Littleproud as leader of the Nationals.
However it also looks as if governments in the Western World have over-reacted to the dire threats of the IPCC and climate scientists and are, at last, realising that at least for the foreseeable future, renewables will not meet their power needs
313
” . . . the South Pacific Islanders seem in little doubt both that climate change is happening and that it is caused by humans.”
I’m in little doubt that my current financial woes are caused by the lack of your money flowing into my wallet.
So, there’s your proof! Pay up!
181
Best ask the South Pacific Islanders to pay up as it is they that seem in little doubt climate change is happening. Why do you trivialise their concerns?
115
Sea level rise isn’t happening in Pacific Islands.. They are actually expanding.
So the big question is “WHY” do they “believe”
I doubt you could find one single climate indication of “climate change” certainly not by human influence.
You never have been able to before.
Its all just “following the crowd”. The one thing you know.
Why wouldn’t one trivialise concerns based on a figment of fantasy ! Are they children scare of the boogie man ??
141
I doubt you could find one single climate indication of “climate change” certainly not by human influence.You never have been able to before.Its all just “following the crowd”. The one thing you know.
Why do you conflate the concerns of the South Pacific islanders with “my just following the crowd?”
Why do you and most others here follow the ever diminishing crowd of those who categorically state CO2 does not cause climate change? Is it because it is the one thing you all know?
I doubt you could find one single climate indication of “climate change” certainly not by human influence.
You and others here might be interested in this conclusion by Judith Curry
The interdependency between CO2 and Earth’s climate is clearly crystallized. Either direction in the temperature relationship – CO2 or temperature in the driver’s seat – is quantified by simple means. From this analysis, the sceptics’ argument seems difficult to be maintained that the CO2-temperature relationship reflects a spurious correlation. At the very least with societal responsibility, the risk must be assumed that nature treats any atmospheric CO2 concentration change according to the Eocene relationship.
Furthermore, the role of CO2 is put into perspective with other major climate determinants, mainly those causing insolation variabilities (particularly solar luminosity and planetary albedo), with a note to the anticipated role of the ocean currents. The hope is that this will facilitate differentiation in the discussions.
https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/29/simplified-climate-modelling-part-1-the-role-of-co2-in-paleoclimate/
19
“Simple models are formulated”
“Other temperature influences are judged negligible.”
“This causal relationship is well explained by simulation programs“
Models designed to show CO2 causes temperature, show that CO2 causes temperature.. WOW ! News headlines !!
Note that in no instance was peak CO2 able to maintain peak temperature.
And picking spurious correlations.. also not science.
There are far better correlations…
—-
“At the very least with societal responsibility,”
You have to be joking ! This is not science, its blatant propaganda.
—
Now, where’s your evidence that CO2 causes warming? Not models, not vague correlations that only hold over short periods…
actual science. (once you figure out what that is.)
60
Ian, try naming one aspect of today’s climate [including rate of change] that is unprecedented.
In the Pacific Islands it is deck space, not freeboard, that is the problem.
60
‘ … the CO2-temperature relationship reflects a spurious correlation.’
That is true, oceanic oscillations are the drivers and CO2 has no part to play.
20
No human CO2 effect on Greenland
No human effect on Hurricanes
No correlation, except maybe delayed, during the Holocene
50
http://euanmearns.com/the-vostok-ice-core-and-the-14000-year-co2-time-lag/
Recommended education for Ian ! Should he chose to actually learn something.
50
this is a straw man (or perhaps ‘straw thing’ is a better phrase in today’s ‘progressive’ pc universe of discourse) argument.
some here say co2 does not cause climate change
others say it has a negligible effect (eg. a 1 degree increase per doubling of co2 per lindzen, excluding any negative feedbacks).
however, what people here do say categorically is that co2 is not the control knob that drives the climate. that hypothesis is unproven (eg no hotspot) and absurd.
another straw man.
no one denies humans influence the natural world around them.
firstly, JC is not the author of that piece.
secondly, read the comments at your link, e.g.:
“Even if CO2 concentration doubles or triples, the effect on temperature would be minimal. The relationship between temperature and CO2 is like painting a window black to block sunlight. The first coat blocks most of the light. Second and third coats reduce very little more. Current CO2 levels are like the first coat of black paint.” (Dr. Timothy Ball)
ie the warming effect is logarithmic.
30
Just to show current CO2 levels.. see the little red dot. !
Anyone that thinks this level is too high… has got rocks for a brain…. or just a completely empty space.!
40
“ie the warming effect is logarithmic.”
No, that is an “climate science” construct.
If there is any warming effect (pure conjecture), measurements show show that the mythical “forcing” levels out at around 280ppm
50
“no one denies humans influence the natural world around them.”
Humans can have an influence of local weather and micro-climates,
… but “climate change™” by definition, implies “global”…
Humans cannot affect that.
10
“climate” according to my 2002 Pocket Oxford Dictionary refers to the “prevailing weather conditions of an area”
the area in question could thus be global or local.
20
“Question: How much warming do you expect for a doubling of carbon dioxide?
Lindzen: “Doubling is chosen for a very good reason. The dependence of the greenhouse gas effects what is called logarithmic. Which means if you double CO2 from 280 to 560ppm, you would get the same thing you as you would get from doubling from 560 to 10120. It’s a diminishing return thing.”
I’m agnostic between positions like Lindzen’s and straight-out ‘heretical’ views because in either case there is no justification for destroying the planet to stop ‘climate change’ (as they say).
20
AGW morphed to “climate change”.
The “global” part is understood.
That is what the climate scammers mean.. changes to the “global” climate.
10
“measurements show show that the mythical “forcing” levels out at around 280ppm”
Look at the actual measurements of CO2 absorption, hence forcing.
10
Its easy to trivialise nonsense, sea level has stopped rising and they were never in any real danger. More cyclone shelters would be appreciated.
91
While maybe not trivial, their concerns are 100% about money.
If the Head Honcho [chief is now racial appropriation] can’t deliver OPM he can expect to be deposed.
10
“the view that climate change is a problem that needs tackling “
Which of course is a load of arrant nonsense.
The brain-washing continues.. Fold to the non-science of “climate change” or be politically incorrect.. seek virtue.. !!
That is how bad its got in society
And none of it based on science, just propaganda lies 24/7.
141
It’s stated;
“the governments there are all very concerned about the effects of climate change on their communities”.
Using Google Translate that comes out as;
“the governments there are all very concerned about the effects of not maintaining climate change induced guilt in rich countries on their
communitiesspecial purpose overseas bank accounts.”A good translation. Use the PoliSpeak option converted to English.
KK
131
If money is the prime driving force why have the South Pacific Islands governments rejected China’s advances?
26
Its a sporting thing, footy cements our relationship.
32
KK,
You need to understand Climate Change has replaced the war on terrorism, let me explain.
You cannot fight a war against a tactic, it is a war you cannot win and it will continue as long as the people allow you to continue to fight it as eventually the people grow tired of fighting an unwinnable war.
You also cannot fight a war against an open ended vague slogan like Climate Change, eg if the sun went blank tomorrow the Earth would experience a change in climate ergo anything can cause climate change and you cannot fight/tackle everything.
Like all slogans you need the gullible to support it evidence of is on display here and other forums.
21
Talk of climate change in the south Pacific is a classic example of the level, of absolute and total F#%@ing B…S… of ‘climate change’
The Solomon plate is SINKING, something that can be confirmed with a simple google search.
62
There was a study done on the pacific islands as to the cause/s of inundation on some and it seems man is responsible for some but only because of dredging the coral to build runways during WW2 on the prevailing wind side of the island . Dynamite fishing hasn’t helped the situation either . Will see if I can find a link to the study .
20
“at least for the foreseeable future, renewables will not meet their power needs”
Renewables, wind and solar, can never meet civilisations power needs. EVAH !!
41
b.nice – when wind power turned my ancestor’s windmill in Roskilde – the son moved into beer sales as being a miller was back breaking work. One wind mill worker ancestor had asthma as his lungs filled with flour. Giving up the more lucrative career of a miller, he married a farmer’s daughter. At the same time great buildings were made, great art painted, ballet emerged as an art form, great music was being written on new instruments and great literature was written – by candle! Civilization flourished for all of time until the cheap energy revolution. BUT I agree that intermittent wind and hi-tech 80’s style solar will not meet modern manufacturing or the idiot classes addiction to social media and online activity! Sometimes in a perverse mood I smile to myself and wish the authority go all the way, with only wind and solar.. just so the youth might scream when their car and phone won’t charge and I put up my feet and haul out the candles and my books written in a world before cheap power. I can work without electricity – but nobody much else can! God only has to pull the plug and modern civilization dies!
00
because they definitely wouldn’t have any ulterior motives (*cough*).
10
The Trade Wind Index shows trade winds have strengthened over the the past 28 years, with more La Nina like conditions and higher sea levels in the western Pacific.
See https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2022/04/23/is-climate-change-threatening-the-solomon-islands/
71
“There is a world of cold down there, and the layer of warm water on top is but a thin skin”
Same above.
No little warm spots for at least the next 3 million light years.
Ya’d think we should be more nervous about cold.
Warm is the precious rarity.
We’re not dealing with science.
We’re dealing with mass mental disorder.
It’s the veneer of sanity that is rapidly growing thin.
241
So why do these constant weather alarm stories keep getting cranked out?
Money … shocking I know.
Fleecing.
Mine the tax base for corporate donors by scaring the unsuspecting public with vague fears, and convince them to acquiesce to the wealth transfer.
Wave ‘science’ like a carnival show magician’s magic wand.
Covid was the masterpiece … so far.
141
Bread and circuses… the heathen are at the gates… chicken entrails… the gods must be crazy.
Personally, La Niña treats me well here at 34 degrees South (tip-top Far North of NZ). Sub-tropical air masses and sea currents keep the Antarctic chills at bay, while down in Wellington (the capital) politricksters huddle in their heated offices screaming we’re all going to burn or drown or worse.
I do hope there is a special place, deep in the bowels of the planet, where these ****s will squirm for eternity.
101
La Nina is weakening towards neutral, but El Nino is not expected to show up any time soon.
https://climateimpactcompany.com/weekly-enso-diagnostics-report-la-nina-trend-weaker-and-that-trend-is-likely-to-continue-2-2/
81
La Nina like conditions to prevail.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
91
Its fun looking at the spread of the ENSO graphs
https://34pejf387dm41c0xgyzoml71-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/30may22_cfsv2-768×591.png
This is only 6 or so months forecasting… and the barn door is wide open !
And they pretend that climate models can predict many years out…. LOL…
… crystal balls would be about as useful. !
121
They pray for El Nino, but that is now highly unlikely. We should expect a return to the 1950s.
https://teara.govt.nz/en/diagram/7788/interdecadal-pacific-oscillation-1920-2000
41
This isn’t supposed to happen either
“New Findings Show Gulf Stream “Has Strengthened” Over Past Century…”Heat Transport Has Increased 30%”! ”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/30/new-findings-show-gulf-stream-has-strengthened-over-past-centuryheat-transport-has-increased-30/
51
ENSO is an enigma and climate scientists want to know how it will behave with global warming. So they had a look at coral cores on the edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool and found that ENSO was weaker during the LIA.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/238582983_ENSO_Variability_during_the_Little_Ice_Age_from_the_Perspective_of_a_Long_Coral_Record_from_the_Western_Pacific_Warm_Pool
51
the emperor has no clothes
71
We’re still waiting for that little boy to yell out the modern equivalent: CO2’s got No Heat!
Waiting.
51
That is the parable of the Modern Age!
20
We had terrible floods in the 1970s in QLD, NSW and VIC and of course very strong la ninas and it definitely had ZIP impact from too much co2 in our atmosphere.
But didn’t the Flannery loony also tell us years ago that we’d have more severe droughts? And “even the rains that fall will not allow our rivers to run and fill our dams?”
Yet we’ve just elected a complete new set of loonies to our FED parliament who still BELIEVE in this idiocy?
And these loonies actually BELIEVE that we Aussies ( 1.1% of global co2 emissions) can make a difference to our climate by wasting endless billions of $ on the UNRELIABLE, TOXIC S & W fantasies.
They are all BARKING MAD and yet enough stupid voters still BELIEVE? We should always look up the data for ourselves and ignore these religious fanatics.
251
The PDO is a major player.
‘The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) shifted into the cool phase in early 2020 remaining in-place into 2022 except stronger during recent months. The 2-year longevity was last observed in 2010-13 when 3+ years of -PDO persisted.’ (Climate Impact Company)
51
As La Nina hangs on, the cooling spell will mostly continue.
Will be fun to watch the AGW shills if/when it drops to the 1979-2000 mean on a constant basis, in satellite data (UAH).
GISS et al , will of course, continue to warm.
101
Geography 101: And Tonga is in ……. the Pacific Ocean.
71
John Connor II – https://joannenova.com.au/2022/05/tuesday-open-thread-117/#comment-2553049
00
BTW the BOM rainfall graph is very interesting if we take the Aussie rainfall trend since 1900 into account.
The first 49 years we’re much drier overall and the 1960s as well and yet the millenium drought is difficult to observe if we look at this graph of Australian rainfall.
Yet we also had the single stand out 2019 el nino drought year as well.
But the moving average line tells us that we’ve had more rainfall over the last 50 + years.
And even 90% of WA has also received more rainfall in the last 50 years. Look it up.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=8
41
Sorry above should be millennium. Too much on my plate this morning.
31
Talking of millennium, it is abundantly clear that the world is entering a cool phase.
‘The ice core–derived IPO reconstruction indicates that a negative IPO state dominated much of the Little Ice Age (LIA). in agreement with several older reconstructions, exhibiting an average negative phase during the eighteenth century.
‘This characterization of the LIA arises from the contribution of the different proxy indicators preserved in four ice core records upon which the IPO reconstruction is based.’ (Porter et al 2021)
41
Neville
I don’t think our raingauge knows about that graph. 2012 to about 2017 probably shaded the 1902 drought here.
21
Where are you located?
An anomaly chart for the whole of Aus is a bit misleading for smaller regions given the size of the country and different climate zones. You’re probably making that exact point, but in case you haven’t looked at the options on that page;
You can select various regions on that anomaly chart and you might find a correlation to you region and your gauge. Can choose state by state, southern Aus, northern Aus, south-east or south-west Aus etc.
You can also select individual months, or seasons.
41
Flashback to 2007….
..and the piece de resistance…
That must rule out hydrogen from water also…
61
LOL. Doesn’t Mr Flannery realise that the Coal fired Power Plants do not drink or destroy the water that they use? The liquid water is turned into steam which ends up in the air. That steam will then cool and condense to form liquid water again. No water is lost to Planet Earth unless it is being exported to Outer Space and stolen by Aliens without our knowledge.
91
Rowjay see my reply to you below and keep up those critical searches for the past extremist’s lies.
31
Some warming would be very welcome in southern Victoria right now, be it global or local 😃. 7 degrees right now. Not nice.
81
Have you got that cold breeze as well ? Very windy, cold wind, here north of Sydney.
81
It blew like hell here in western Qld yesterday.
I was thinking that the wind farm fans would be talking up how much power they produced – unless it was too strong.
And, if they were, my question is “How are they going to get that power back into last week to replace the power that they didn’t generate then”?
71
Snow predicted for the Central Tablelands and possibly on Barrington Tops.
71
https://www.perisher.com.au/reports-cams/cams#Xhappy
51
It’s Victoria. Cold winds are the default option 😃.
51
A typical Cold Air Outbreak (CAO)
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
21
Air temperatures influence climate? Who knew! I thought only CO2 was authorized to do that. 🤣
31
BTW here’s the BOM WA rainfall since 1900 and higher rainfall since the 1970s and much higher over the last 30 + years.
The moving average line is helpful and clearly shows us the trend.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=wa&season=0112&ave_yr=8
BUT the SW WA shows us a different and LOWER trend compared to all of WA.
And if you can tell us how their magical co2 trace gas can be the culprit ( 90% of WA higher and 10% lower rainfall) you’ve got far too much imagination and you should start to THINK.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=swaus&season=0112&ave_yr=8
21
The Great Climate Shift of 1976 is clearly illustrated with increased precipitation. It was the beginning of a warm PDO, interesting teleconnection.
21
She’s not quite right about this. Mining for the mystical 95% statistical significance level is really important in The Science, but not so much in science itself. Einstein never needed to turn his hand a P-value hacking, and Rutherford said that if you needed statistics to demonstrate the results of your experiment you should have designed a better experiment.
61
Here’s South Australian rainfall since 1900 and note the incredible 17 years STRAIGHT of below average rainfall from the early 1920s. THINK.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=sa&season=0112&ave_yr=8
Here’s the NT rainfall graph and also shows much higher rainfall since the early 1970s.
And would any NT citizen really want to go back to the terrible lower rainfall conditions from 1900 to 1970? THINK.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=nt&season=0112&ave_yr=8
11
I have yet to hear of any Climate Model that takes into account the impact of the Sun, Moon or Space Weather let alone Volcanic activity especially the activity on the Ocean floors disturbing all that cold water. Those Models appear to generate linear projections that take no account of Cycles. The Universe and this Planet which is part of the Universe is driven by Cycles and the activity is never linear.
52
The models take those things into account.
28
LOL.. ! They “say” they do. But as the output of models continues to show a total cluelessness..
… its almost certainly just wrongly “parametised” 😉
And NO, the models do not model ENSO .. because they don’t know how.
Even 6 months out is nothing more than a lottery.
61
Link please.
41
would you read the references in every ipcc report? No? Well that’s my link.
14
So your link is BS.. Ok !!
41
All the IPCC consider is TSI, they exclude all other space weather that is why GA did not post a link, lies by omission
41
have you read through any of the thousands of papers (and dozens with detailed modelling) cited in those reports? No, they are not just TSI. That is false.
Noting also that John Sheldrick provided no evidence. Expecting evidence filled refutations of unsupported claims is your problem.
03
Gee, You are ranting about stuff you have never read yourself.
Stop just making crap up.
You have no evidence, period. !
10
‘No? Well that’s my link.’
Your street cred would improve if you presented the salient points.
https://debatewise.org/455-co2-does-not-cause-global-warming/
10
France has just had its driest start to the year since 2012. Between September 2021 and April 2022, France’s rainfall deficit was estimated to be 19%, while the water table deficit was at 20%, according to the ecological transition ministry.
and
France’s crop yields will be ‘very poor’ due to unprecedented drought
with
*Summer 2022 Update* Latest forecast confirms a searing season is ahead for the United States and Europe
Summer 2022 is approaching. It will be under the continued influence of the La Nina, which will create a hotter than normal and drier Summer for parts of the United States and Europe. The latest forecast cycle shows a strong La Nina signal in the weather patterns.
When trying to understand any weather season and the long-range forecasts, we must realize that there are many global drivers that define it. Global weather is a very complex system, with many large-scale and small-scale factors.
Seasonal forecasting focuses on large-scale pressure systems and the jet stream positioning with the weather pattern. Over the Northern Hemisphere, this upcoming Summer season will be under the influence of a now well-known Ocean anomaly.
OCEAN AND THE WEATHER
21
I hear you and I think most people around here agree with you about the complexity, but the problem is the Climastrologist “scientists” preach universal, global disaster and drought most of the time to drive up panic and we know mother nature work in a “you win, you lose” kind of way on the weather systems.
21
Thanks for that full on Flannery lunacy rowjay and I knew he’d made those statements but I could never find it.
And that’s 15 years ago and yet his co2 fanaticism has come back to bite him?
BTW here’s the BOM rainfall data for northern Australia since 1900.
Silly Flannery really is the gift that keeps on giving.
But will they ever WAKE UP to these loonies?
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=naus&season=0112&ave_yr=8
11
He (Flannery) said that Adelaide would run out of water by 2009. (Not after the last 2 days of a “polar” storm.)
Also that Perth would be the first city abandoned because of drought.
And the ‘good old one’ Even if the rain does fall the reservoirs won’t fill.
31
A bit more accurate:
2004 Tim Flannery predicted that ‘Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis.
2005, Tim Flannery predicted Sydney’s dams could be dry in as little as two years because global warming was drying up the rains, leaving the city “facing extreme difficulties with water”.
2007 Tim Flannery hotter soils meant that “even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems”.
2007: ‘Brisbane and Adelaide – home to a combined total of three million people – could run out of water by year’s end.’ ) By December 2008, Adelaide’s reservoirs were 75% full, Perth’s 40%, Sydney’s 63%, and Brisbane’s 46%. The following year, dams in Brisbane, Canberra and Sydney were filled to overflowing
And one that MIGHT come true – I leave it up to you to consider 2006 Tim Flannery (on a visit to Canada) says that Polar Bears will be extinct within 25 years as global warming shrinks the ice cover
41
” leaving the city “facing extreme difficulties with water”.”
Over the last 6 months, that has certainly been true ! 😉
21
the southern oscillation might be causing cold but it is not that which is causing the earth to cool.
The Antarctic is the thermostat to most of the world. It is the fundamental driver of the coolong.
Here is how.
The magnetic north has drifted westward, Some say as far as mid Siberia, but I only know it has because the ice cap in the northern hemisphere has moved dramatically westward to. That is what is causing the massive and often unseasonal snowdrifts in North America.
The magnetic south has drifted eastward. Antarctic itself has followed with much of its west coast melting and the east coast expanding.
But how does that effect the weather?
iI you look at the world currents map you will see
1. the Great Southern Ocean moves around the Antarctic. That cools the water.
2.These cold currents leave the Southern Ocean and journey into the west coast currents of the southern hemisphere.
From Australias view the two significant ones are, firstly the South American Humboldt current and secondly the West Australian Current.
3. Because the Antarctic has moved closer to Humboldt current, that current has become cooler. This current feeds into the Sub Equatorial current and runs across the Pacific and fills the Coral Sea.
4. This has resulted in the last 3 years of a cooler Coral sea.
5. I know this because: cyclones require a surface temp of 27.5 degrees to form and sustain. The only cyclones formed in the Coral Sea have formed in the north western portion near near East Papua and have only mildly impacted some parts of the very north Cape York region. There has been an absence of cyclones impacting the rest of Queensland coast for the past 3 seasons.
6. The current out of the Coral Sea is the Great Australian East Coast Current. It runs down the coast and it has has also cooled
7. The West Australian current runs up from the Southern Ocean, and because Antarctic has mover eastward and away from this, then it its reasonable to assume this current which feeds into the northern India Ocean, is warmer. The opposite of what is occurring on the Eastcoast and the Southern Pacific.
8. While this year Cyclones coming out of the Indian Ocean and impacting North Wester Western Australia have been very few, this is a marked difference from previous years.
9. What has been significant has been thetranversing most of central Australia and into Western Qld and NSW numerous severe reinvent.
I suspect the Souther Oscillation (La Niña) is at least effected by or is created by the current changes. ie the cooling and warming of the currents originating in the Southern Ocean AS WELL AS the warmer Ocean conditions in the Southern Indian Ocean which are likely affecting evaporation rates and causing the increasing rains across the Australian Continent.
I have no training.
My knowledge and assumptions are based in my knowledge of the weather and oceans as a ocean mariner (solo sailor, yacht).I have knowledge extensive experience of the oceans, currents and weather patterns in the seas around Australia.
My knowledge of the weather, besides extensive personal of observation, which includes solo ocean passages. My reading encompassing books on weather authored by Royal Navy Officers. Their knowledge comes from sources over 500 years and it is believed to encompass sources from the Portuguese who proceeded them.
141
Nearly thought your surname was “Kennealy” and was just starting to feel sorry for you, then I read again…
61
No the Kennealys are a completely different family. They are from Waterford. and lack the intelligence of the Kennellys. The Kennelly family home is Waterfall, a short distance NW of Cork city. But the Kennelly clan Leadership reside in another Waterfall in County Cork. It is a small village, on an estate, situated out on one of Corks peninsulas that jutt out into the Atlantic’s ‘Wild Way’. They were Mariners. I’m descended from them through an Irish Sea Captain who ran ships out of Bombay for the British Raj. Yep an Opium runner. One of his sons settled in NZ during the 1860’s, on Stewart Island and traded logs to London. He had his own ship. The family’s births, deaths and marriages over the first three generations were not registered in NZ. My second oldest Aunty was the first Kennelly registered as born in NZ. I believe my maritime skills came through that link. I taught myself to sail and was always astonished at how much came to me naturally and without much though. Another brach of this family emigrated to the US. His name was Arthur Edwin Kennelly. He was Thomas Edison’s chief electrical engineer, became very wealthy and married one of the Du Pont sisters. His children and their descendants control the Du Pont Corp of America. Sorry to bore you. but it is a fascinating history.
40
Its also worth noting that the Antarctic sea ice trend is toward growth and not decline.
https://notrickszone.com/2022/05/30/new-study-the-2016-2020-antarctic-sea-ice-decline-may-be-traced-to-natural-processes/
51
Also, you might like to critique this.
https://www.abeqas.com/a-southern-annular-ocean-dynamo/
31
That is an incredible explanation. Do you have a blog or some other writings I can follow?
10
If La Nina is happening more often then wouldn’t El Nino be happening less often? But during the 2019-2020 Aus bushfires we were getting told El Nino is happening more often and Aus bushfires would be more frequent.
Can both El Nino and La Nina each be more often or is someone trying to be alarmist?
61
They have been clutching at straws, what we know for sure is that there will be less El Nino going forward.
11
Not according to this.
Warning: You may die laughing from lines in the article such as the following (which would technically be a climate change related death)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220307113147.htm
21
El Nino to become more frequent because of AGW is unscientific, simply because they are forgetting La Nina. ENSO has a mind of its own and an increase in CO2 has no effect on its behaviour.
20
It’s not YOU, it’s not CO2, it’s the SUN…
31
11am and the temperature has risen to all of 8 degrees! What a heatwave. I want a refund, La Nina. 😀
41
Pray tell, where has the temperature 8 degrees?
21
Daniel Andrews has turned the thermostat down.
11
CBS News:
.
Such dramatic language. And very mis-leading by my observation. Does that qualify it as “misinformation?” But how can we be in a magadrought when just a few years ago the spill ways at some dams were being washed out by massive spring run off? We had healthy snow pact last winter, which brought up the snow pack for most basins to 85% (according to U of Wyoming as reported in the Farm Report on radio two days ago) for this time of year, after a previous year of dryness. I drove past a local reservoir today and it was almost back up to full capacity, already. How many years does it take to enter into a megadrought? Apparently not very many. Does 85% snow pack indicate a megadrought? But arid conditions with episodic wet periods and weather events have been the normal going back a long way. Another case of calling the normal abnormal.
41
It appears La Nina can cause dry in the southern states and maybe you’re a chance of getting colder weather in Wyoming. Based on a Dec to Feb chart …. when you get cold weather 😉
.
Global effects of La Nina (Dec-Feb)
https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/LaNina_impacts_global_Dec-Feb_620.jpg
.
This one (Nov-Apr) suggests Wyoming gets a bit more rain than average in first year of La Nina and a bit less in second year.
https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_alternate_image/public/ENSOblog_Fig4_precip_Jan2018_620.png?itok=GtFPjA3u
.
South-West Wyoming has slight less chance of hail but slight increase in tornado chance during La Nina.
https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/2022-03/ENSO_severeweather_620.jpg
21
SW Wyoming never has tornadoes and rarely hail. Hail, when it happens, is hardly ever greater than pea sized. A slight increase in the chance of tornado would have to be something like an increase from 1% to 1.5%. Maybe that’s kind of like an acceleration in sea level rise from 1mm/ to 1.5mm/year? Or a decrease in the chance (or not) of global warming by a tiny fraction of a degree in hundred years by Net Zero?
The South Western states being drier during La Nina is hardly noticable because its like going from very dry already to slightly more dry. North Western Arizona, Southern Nevada, and Southern Kalifornia, depend on the Colorado River drainage system which comes from Wyoming. Wyoming is bisected by the Rocky Mountains. Wyoming is Native American for where the mountains meet the plains. Western Wyoming drainage goes to the Snake River drainage into Oregon, into the Colorado River system, or it gets dead ended into the Great Salt Lake. Eastern of the continental divide flows toward the Mississippi River system. We had one dry year and that affects the water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell, but how does that qualify as a megadruoght? During the last millennium there were droughts lasting 200 years in Western North America. Now that would be a megadrought. In fact since about 1845 the Western United States has been mostly wetter than the average during the previous millennium. Maybe it wants to go back to Average? Maybe the PDO is going back to normal? What is normal? These are questions which don’t get considered by the MSM who just bang on about “megadroughts” and climate change scaring school children.
10
I understand the discussion is about climate (mostly) but I though it worth commenting on the reluctance of medical science to appreciate large scale statistical analyses as opposed to small scale “double blind testing”
Excuse the sarcasm
21
We just had the best season in a very long time up here in the Central Tablelands of NSW. Grass is thick, variegated, and very very green going into Winter. Cows are loving the early clover. We were lucky & only had a few fences down in the flooding of our creek.
And really, it was a brilliant summer for us – with no super hot days or hot westerlies which are usual for us here.
51
Indeed. A farm where I work has abandoned the floodplains and sent stock to the tablelands around Walcha where it is booming. But doom and gloom is all you here
10
“The gargantuan deep blue blob of 3 kilometer thick salty cold water promptly rises up and sucks the warmth out of the sky.”
Who is starring in the film?
32
The Devil
30
Doesn’t matter. To the layman it’s all climate change anyway. We are in for a third wet year ? “Unprecedented”, “never seen it like this before”, must be climate change.
40
You might consider addressing the truth about nuclear energy.
https://josepharcher.substack.com/p/two-critical-nuclear-questions?s=w
Another fact that deserves attention is that the level of CO2 has only been this low one other time in the billion year fossil record. For a plant based eco system, starving the plants seems myopic
https://medium.com/@ghornerhb/heres-a-better-graph-of-co2-and-temperature-for-the-last-600-million-years-f83169a68046
10
La Nina could easily be around until 2025, based on the deep ocean gyre oscillations, coupled with solar activity. If that’s so, then what do the intellectually challenged individuals like Tim Flannery (AKA Tom Foolery) have to say about it? AGW or AGC?
20
Why would he say anything about it? He is not a climate scientist.
00
Right on, Gee Aye. Then why IS he raving on about AGW? Why doesn’t he go back to Mammology, and leave the climate debate to people in that discipline? I’ll tell you why…he is an ABC Stooge!
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