So it’s a new record. In the 20 years since the National Energy Market formed it has never operated on such a vapor thin margin. Only a few days ago Paul McArdle at WattClarity thought a mere 15% instantaneous reserve plant margin was a headline event, but tonight the grid survived (so far) on a tiny 3% Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin NEM-wide. Things were so tight the NSW Minister for Energy sought emergency powers to force coal companies to provide fuel to coal generators for the next 30 days on his say so. Presumably next on his list would be emergency powers from God to make the wind blow.
Two years ago Australian taxpayers spend $13 billion a year in climate action (Moran). As researchers at ANU noted, Australia was leading the way — installing more megawatts per person than any other nation on Earth. (Blakers) Despite being the fastest growing and sparsest population, on the most remote nation which was practically a quarry and farm built on coal and uranium deposits, Australian political leaders rushed to compete for green booby prizes in Beautiful Weather Contests.
And the toll from the bonfire in prices is just starting with Iron Foundry’s and Brickmakers already going to the wall. Businesses that have survived wars and market collapses couldn’t survive green fantasies.
Rising gas prices blamed as Advance Bricks says its oven will go cold after 82 years in Stawell
In the Victorian town of Stawell, about 230kms north-west of Melbourne, local manufacturer Advance Bricks is shutting after more than 82 years in business.
Managing director John Collins says the company, which employs 23 people, could no longer afford the power bill after the collapse of commercial gas supplier Weston Energy in late May forced it onto a plan with “retailer of last resort” Energy Australia.
“The assertion by (Victorian) Premier Andrews and (federal) Minister Bowen that heavy industries can transition to renewable energy is complete and utter fantasy,” he said.
For every green job we create we destroy two to five real ones:
South Australian manufacturer InterCast and Forge forced to turn off lights and stand down staff after energy market ‘failure’
A South Australian manufacturing business reliant on wholesale electricity has labelled the national electricity market a “failure,” after standing down 170 employees due to unaffordable operating costs.
InterCast and Forge managing director Brett Lawrence said he was forced to shut down operations at his iron foundry in Adelaide’s northern suburbs on Wednesday, following the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) decision to suspend the spot market.
Mr Lawrence said soaring wholesale electricity prices had been a “nightmare” for the iron foundry, which accounts for about 1 per cent of South Australia’s total electricity consumption per day when fully operational.
The energy situation in Australia is at the mercy of coal deliveries and coal fired stations
Some coal mines have struggled with both covid and also rain from the La Nina slowing down production. Look at the detail published in The Australian. Every coal unit matters. For some reason no one is mentioning the one they shut deliberately at Liddell in March this year. If only they hadn’t….
Its 1430 megawatt Mt Piper station, which provides 12 per cent of NSW’s energy supply, will lose half its capacity this weekend to repair boiler equipment. EnergyAustralia plans to quickly return the unit to service early next week. Coal supply to Mt Piper is running at lower levels than planned.
“A decade ago, there were six local mines capable of supplying Mt Piper. Today, the power station gets most its coal from the nearby Springvale mine. Production and deliveries are below expected levels in 2022,” EnergyAustralia managing director Mark Collette said.
AGL Energy has pledged to bring back half of its giant Bayswater coal station online by Saturday after engineering issues, with the plant currently running at just 25 per cent capacity.
Unit 4 is expected to return later on Thursday after being out of action for a week due to a maintenance issue on a boiler ash conveyer while Unit 2 is set to return on June 18 following eight days offline to repair a tube leak.
More coal mines would mean one less thing to go wrong on a national grid dependent on coal power.
REFERENCES
Moran, Alan (2020) : The Hidden Cost of Climate Policies and Renewables
Blakers, A., Stocks, M., and Lu, B. (2019) Australia: the renewable energy superstar, APO Analysis and Policy Observatory, ANU, [PDF]
Graph: Source:.Anero.id
What could go wrong?
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I see Energy Australia being mentioned more & more with grid problems.
Who is behind Energy Australia? Finance agenda Policies etc,
Have they ever been investigated.
I wouldn’t have any problem with the company except that there’s an awful lot of Chinese finance involved & many of us have a “ trust” problem when Chinese companies are involved!
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? What is a Chinese ‘company’?
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Energy Australia is 100% owned by China Light and Power.
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Right on! Now tell me who owns China Light & Power??
Now tell me about Alinta!! While you’re at it tell me about Darwin Harbour. How much of Melbourne port has been sold off. Of course Pacific nations are wrong to do exactly the same!!
There’s a stink in the state of affairs in Australia & guess what both sides of politics are equally irresponsible!
Government seems to be of the opinion that if they sell off the country in little bits at a time, the electorate hopefully won’t notice…….WRONG!!!
I also notice that the MEDIA don’t talk about this subject & certainly would never criticise the sell off of our assets!! Why?? The stink gets stronger as we speak & Labor having been in power for barely a month is still getting ready for their “ pulling on the levers of power.
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Lets not blame it on the chinese. The blame lies fairly and squarely on successive Australian goverments who have allowed and even encouraged the sell off of these critical assets. We have ourselves to blame.
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You’re on to it Jo.
Here’s a plot showing the gap between the dream and reality over the last two weeks.
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2022/06/18/the-gap/
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Ken. The prince of fools, Bowen, says we are short of storage and if we had enough we would be OK. What I would like to see is just how much storage we would have needed to replace fossils this past week and how many unreliables would be needed to provide the demand plus generate enough surplus to fill the storage. Just how many South Australian batteries would have been required? The synoptic chart Jo displayed yesterday and on the Aneroid site showed a high effectively covering the entire continent thus the measly 1.3% from wind. Bowen and Co should admit that there would need to be enough to maintain our smelters and foundries plus increased manufacturing as we “transition” away from China. I don’t think these clowns have even started doing the sums.
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My guess is that they are actually incapable of doing sums.
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I think they can do the sums. They just don’t want to because the answers are unpalatable to them, so they lie.
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🙂
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Hi Lawrie, Good question.
In the last two weeks, the maximum gap between wind, solar, hydro, and batteries, and total consumption for any 30 minute period was: 24,634 MW. (However, the maximum peak load was 35,386 MW and the minimum W+S+H+B at the time of peak load was 6,058 MW- so the difference could have been as much as 29,328 MW.)
In the last two weeks, the minimum gap between wind, solar, hydro, and batteries, and total consumption for any 30 minute period was: 10,684 MW.
Current installed capacity of wind and solar is 16,130 MW. Wind 9,202 MW, but wind averages over many years about 32% of capacity- and much, much less in the past two week. Solar6,929 MW but averages about 15% of capacity.
Snowy Hydro 2.0 will provide another 2,000 MW.
Numeracy is not their forte.
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It might not be mine either, but what the heck.
If the “gap” identified in your link is correct then the grid would need between 80 and 106 Hornsdale big batteries to meet the base load need and between 106 and 200 to meet the peak load demand – for just one and a bit hours.
Cost? Don’t even think about it. Labor never does.
Cost ranges between A$12.88 billion and A$32.2 billion.
If you want it for a full 24 hours then you can multiply those numbers by 24.
Don’t ask me where the batteries get their electrons from. I’ll leave you to work out the “back of the envelope cost” for that.
After all, that’s how Rudd and Conroy costed the NBN – so it’s gotta be good enough.
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Fossil fuels, those magic things that can both give and take at the sme time.
Reported in News.com this morning our very own Climate Council of Tim Flannery fame, has just released a map of all the areas in Australia where it will be impossible to insure your home because of potential flooding. This will come about in the next EIGHT years. Thats correct. FLOODING will be so bad by 2030 that homes in southern Queensland, northern NSW and the Goulburn Valley in Victoria will be impossible to insure. What Kool Aid do these people drink! Are they so totally unaware that the rains that fall wont fill our rivers! Oh how I wish I had a job that paid so well to allow me to make completely random predictions without any recourse for “getting it wrong”.
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If I, as a doctor, made as many wrong diagnoses as Flannery, I would be sued, fined, deregistered and likely imprisoned.
Flannery can only seem to fail upwards.
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Tongue firmly in check – we have known for centuries that doctors bury their mistakes. Cheers.
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Why the hell is anybody still listening to this unrepentant liar Flannery.
He has had his day long ago, we should send him to China where he can predict more rain for them and then see how he fares when he fails again.
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I lived 63 years of my life on the irrigated flats of the Hunter River. We had numerous floods including major ones in 1955 and 1976 and managed to stay dry. I also note that less than a kilometre away were HILLS to which we could retire or even build if floods became a common occurrence but didn’t Tim say floods would be extremely rare or non existent? Where is the media when fools like Flannery contradict earlier pronouncements?
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Good Lord, after all the hopelessly inaccurate prognostications he’s come up with over the past 20 years, they still keep going back to him for more?
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That is because he says what the media and the activists want him to say.
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This winter & the results of failure now do not bode well for our future.
Shutting down coal plants will be escalated by the likes of Energy Australia & AGL.
ONCE THE COAL FIRED PLANTS ARE GONE SO TOO ARE THE SUBSIDIES THAT GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THE UNRELIABLES DREAM IS ACHIEVABLE.
When the subsidies end Energy prices will then triple or quadruple!
By then it’ll be too late to turn the clock back & hardship & slide into poverty will quickly follow.
The current mob of politicians will not consider reversing the current situation. The UN/Globalist /WEF mob will not have it.
We need a a new political solution, new political blood, new political parties.
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New political solution, new political blood, new parties.
And all we got were teals and this lousy tee shirt.
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I see a revival of this sort of technology:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCG5qPCMsJM
“Robust” essential survival, through “shade-tree” technology.
Running an internet might be tricky, but physical survival has priority.
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Old is new again. Great event, thanks for sharing. Who knows we may even get to the stage where those on the city fringes, which use to be country till the cities expanded out and made them suburbs, who still have septic tanks in the back yard might consider running a pipe to draw off the gas for cooking/heating in the now not too distant future. The other aspect of the video of course is the reckless endangerment of the children with that wood splitter, lol. I can hear the heads of child protection officers exploding as I type this. Loved the little guy “playing” with the sledge hammer. But guess what both littlies seemed to have developed a healthy respect/fear for the machinery (including sledge hammer) by being up close instead of being kept at a distance and had their curiosity dangerously stoked. Cheers.
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“Running an internet might be tricky”
iirc, Globally, communications networks uses some 10% of global electricity. !
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We sold the machines that build this kind of stuff to China. You’d be better off with horses I think.
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“Australian political leaders rushed to compete for green booby prizes in Beautiful Weather Contests.”
Summed up beautifully Jo, just love it.
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“More renewables may not solve this”.
Renewables will never solve this problem , Period.
Regards
Climate Heretic
PS never say never, I know 🙂
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Coal is renewable. They don’t understand time scale.
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Just proves my long held view that we are governed by idiots who rely on advice from fools. Meanwhile the emphasis on electricity ignores the bigger problem in reaching net zero; transport and agriculture. What law will Matt Kean and Bowen introduce to force semis to use cow dung and other renewable fuels. Will they direct farmers to grow corn for ethanol? It is well known that to grow enough corn we will need more dams, more diesel for our tractors and more gas for our fertilizers. Oh how stupid can some folk be before their brains no longer function at all?
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Farmers Warn Soaring Diesel Prices Could Cause Food Shortages
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Scare mongering.
Rabobank says:
Total planted hectares in Australia are expected to reach a record 23.83m hectares, exceeding last year’s record by 0.9%. We expect this to include a record 3.6m canola hectares, up 20.9% YOY. Increased canola planting will come at the expense of barley, given Chinese anti-dumping tariffs remain in place, and pulses, which are still stored and unsold in large quantities in northern NSW and Queensland.
https://research.rabobank.com/far/en/sectors/regional-food-agri/australian-2022-23-winter-crop-outlook-planting-and-prices.html
Australian farmers use diesel just like the Americans.
The costs get passed on.
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Nope.
Farmers alway take market price.
The most they can ever do is to decide whether they plant or not, and how much they want to spend on herbicide and fertilizer.
Price is then dictated by yield (including overseas yields)
The shortage of food supply occurs when they decide to not plant food crops.
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Job losses from green energy ? Who would have thought ? Direct real losses, not theoretical ones. Strange I’m not reading that on my MSM feed, not a word.
It is simply astonishing how bias politics and the media are.
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It was sad news about that brick maker in Stawell and made even worse by the asinine comment from Daniel Andrews.
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I wonder when we will start importing bricks from China !
90
Thick as two Stawell bricks.
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This will be a 1 term government.
What harm could they possibly do in only 1 term? /sarc
We only have to look at America to see how much damage can be inflicted.
We are next in line.
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Probably even more if they didn’t put their minds to it
10
Summed up by the Cartoon with the Article – Australia’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Gov’t Ask People To Keep Lights Off To Avert Blackouts
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Next Winter in Russia
31
Livid
40
Climate Change Hypocrisy
30
Leak Makes it to Zero Hedge
30
O O
Other instruments appropriate
“The harp that once – – ”
And rumour hath it a tune on the skin flute
10
No more to chiefs and ladies bright
The harp of Tara swells;
The chord alone, that breaks at night,
Its tale of ruin tells.
Thus Freedom now so seldom wakes,
The only throb she gives,
Is when some heart indignant breaks,
To show that still she lives.
She lives. Liberty.
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You can vilify coal fired power till the cows come home, but until you can replace what it provides, you have (well, less than really) nothing.
Take a look again at that graph that Joanne has provided. It says so much on one simple graph.
That’s for yesterday 17June2022.
Look at that evening Peak of maximum power consumption, and last night that was at 6.05PM. Incidentally, it’s at that same time year round day in day out, 365 days a year, and has been at that same time forever. In Summer it might be somewhat hidden by HVAC power consumption, which is so much higher, but the evening Peak has always been at that time, you know the time the power retailers charge the most for, telling the
gullible gullspeople that they can avoid the peak cost by moving their power consumption to cheaper times, you know come home from school and work some other time. Have your main evening family meal at some other time, watch TV etc at some other time. Live without lighting till some other time. Tell you children to do their homework some other time. Charge your phones at some other time. Move the habits of everyone of many many many lifetimes to ….. some other time.So let’s utilise that known for Centuries time of day and change the cost to a higher rate, eh!
So then, yesterday. Look at that graph.
That Peak power time at 6.05PM, and the AEMO coverage area was consuming 29,035MW.
The three renewables of choice, wind, solar plants and rooftop solar power were delivering IN TOTAL ….. 489MW, the grand total of 1.68%
That’s just so incredibly amazing eh!
The Nameplate for wind is 9854MW.
The Nameplate for Solar Plants is 8506MW
The Nameplate for Rooftop Solar is (around) 17,000MW.
So here we have a total Nameplate from those three renewables of 35,360MW…. a truly HUMUNGOUS total, and delivering 489MW no less, at a Capacity Factor of ….. well, who really cares.
We have 47 coal fired Units in total, with a Nameplate of 22,500MW. Ten of those Units are offline. (two in Victoria, three in NSW and five in Queensland) That takes out a tick over 4000MW.
So, 37 coal fired Units with a remaining Nameplate of 18500MW.
At that same time of the usual evening Peak, same time every night forever, those 37 Units supplied 16,780MW of power. That’s at an online Capacity Factor of 90.7%, from Units in the main, all of them older than 35 years.
Now, all of that is utterly meaningless really, a bunch of arithmetic.
35360MW Nameplate – Power delivery 489MW
185500MW (online) – Power delivery 16780MW
Now this is where that meaningless meaninglessness really is important.
UNTIL (and let me repeat that ….. UNTIL) those three renewables of choice ….. CAN deliver that gap up the total of 29,035MW, not just one night a year, but EVERY night of the year, not just at some ephemeral point in the day, but REGULARLY at 6PM day in, day out, forever ….. ONLY THEN can it be said that renewables can REPLACE coal fired power.
Trust me that scenario will NEVER happen.
Oh, that’s bl00dy big battery to fill that gap, oh, and if there is a battery, then you’ll need an equivalent amount of renewable power to charge that battery, oh, and if that is to be from renewables, then that’s extra renewables on top of what will be needed, because you CANNOT charge the battery and consume the power from the same source at the same time.
Vilify coal fired power all you like ….. tell us that coal fired power is dying ….. tell us that it is unreliable ….. tell us it’s a stranded asset ….. tell us they are closing down soon ….. tell us coal fired power is not needed any more.
NOW, tell us where 29,000MW of regular and reliable, present ALL the time is coming from.
Tony.
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I always love reading your contributions Anton.
Concise, factual and not too technical.
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Thank you, Tony.
If there’s a benevolent God of Energy somewhere in the universe, please forgive us our MW sins of RE emission and omission.
Do what must be done.
Sack the AEMO Board and make Tony from OZ the next CEO.
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Tony
I put this up on Weekend Unthreaded yesterday
“It seems to me –
If you are travelling by an ICE vehicle and you run out of fuel the solution is to add fuel from a fuel can. You wouldn’t think of up-ending an empty fuel can and hoping to continue travel.
The current prescription for solving the problem of wind and sun droughts for sun and wind (SAW) power is to build more of them – even though those droughts of sun and wind seem to occur over large areas.
But isn’t that similar to attempting to refuelling your ICE vehicle from an empty fuel can?”
From your post above
“The Nameplate for wind is 9854MW.
The Nameplate for Solar Plants is 8506MW
The Nameplate for Rooftop Solar is (around) 17,000MW.
So here we have a total Nameplate from those three renewables of 35,360MW…. a truly HUMUNGOUS total, and delivering 489MW no less, at a Capacity Factor of ….. well, who really cares.”
That is a hell of a lot of empty fuel cans being emptied at the problem!
50
another ian,
I look at it like this.
Imagine the Billions of dollars, and here we could probably be saying close to 100 billion dollars we have spent on putting all of that Nameplate in place, and for this day, it only contributed 1.4% of its total Nameplate and 1.38% of the required power.
There are people who might say, yeah one day, what a cherry pick.
Okay then, what happens when something like this happens and there is no coal fired power, and here, keep in mind that the year round average power total from those three renewables at that same time is only 3000MW, still 26,000MW short of what is required.
You can’t run Australia on 1.4%.
Tony.
130
Tony
If an IC Engine was performing like that it would be rated a “Rolls-Canardly” and have been totally overhauled or scrapped
30
Thank you, Tony.
If there’s a benevolent God of Energy somewhere in the universe, please forgive us our MW sins of RE emission and omission.
Do what must be done.
Sack the AEMO Board and make Tony from OZ the next CEO.
30
The only genuine alternative to coal is CCGT plants of serious scale. They can be built in 3 years or so from breaking ground to generating electrons. A 3000 MW power station would cost over US$3 billion, likely well over what with CFMEU wages being similar to supermodel photo shoot rates.
But then you have clean reliable energy.
Here’s a recent one built by Duke Energy in Florida: https://www.duke-energy.com/our-company/about-us/new-generation/natural-gas/citrus-natural-gas
And another biggie in Qatar of 2500 MW, using Siemens turbines, financed by Japanese banks, and constructed by Korean contractor Samsung: https://www.power-technology.com/projects/umm-al-houl-combined-cycle-power-plant/
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To do that, we need to seriously ramp up our gas exploration and extraction in the eastern states.
Let’s ask Dan if we can! 😉
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The other element of the current energy crisis is related to gas supply. For the past few years we were hammered by “experts” telling us that there would be 100% domestic gas demand destruction. Well it turns out that we literally can’t get enough of it and its 2022. In the past few days, we’ve had gas generators becoming unavailable due to pipeline pressures dropping from such fast withdrawals!
Ultimately, we need more gas. Southeast Australia relies almost entirely from the a small portion of the Otway Basis (there are deepwater parts of this basin that have humongous reserves but we obviously aren’t allowed to touch them). The gas producers have been stating emphatically that we’re heading towards a gas supply shortage (all on public record). They were stating that next year’s winter season will be very risky but little did they know that an electricity grid contingency like this would plunge the gas market into another world of pain.
I also don’t see the QLD LNG producers being the cause of this. Since the start of June, the flow from SWQP (Wallumbilla to Moomba) has more than doubled than than the same time last year and we’re still seeing record high gas prices.
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Denied access by the Government of Victoria below Gippsland is a gas field larger than the Bass Strait oil and gas field that started production during the 1960s.
Below Coober Pedy SA not too far away from the Moomba Gas Field is another enormous reserve with access denied by the SA State Government.
The Narrabri Gas Field NSW remains unproductive because of hold ups based on court appeals against development approval, and that gas is for domestic use, no export.
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A friend with a lifetime of oil and gas drilling world wide says
“Watch who is telling you how much:
10
Have a look at this Figure taken from a NSW Energy Security outlook study – heavily reliant on imports from other states. They (NSW Govt) knew this was coming, and were hopeful that Snowy 2 would save the day.
20
How do they introduce ‘hopeful’ into something when all the variables except the climate are knowns? They’ve chosen to rely on throwing the dice of climate. How many years do we have before government devolves us back to the 1860s?
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Amended from the item at http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2022/06/18/embrace-hollywood-63/
“How long will it take for
DisneySAW Power Floggers to get tired of plummeting stocks and lost revenue? Will they continue to put theLGBTQWTFrenewable power cult agenda ahead of the bottom line? If history holds, they will continue on this self-destructing path just to send the right virtue signal to an audience that cannot keepDisneySAW Power Floggers in business. That’s what you get when corporations get overtaken by social justice warriors. The message is more important than keeping the doors open or the shareholders happy. They literally don’t care if 90% of you hate it; they’re going to push it on you in spite of that and enjoy doing it.”30
A large unknown is the maintenance cost and longevity of wind power items in particular
I have scoured the net and not come up with much
there is a UK based Phd researcher’s thesis but he qualified his analysis by stating ‘commercial in confidence’ and
undeclared subsidies, tariffs and other governmental waivers of red tape all made precise estimates impossible
the estimates of maintenance was as high as 15% per annum and longevity (excluding poles & transmission) potentially as low as 7 to 8 years AVERAGE
I think a more accurate set of figures, (also with the installation costs), when amortised would clearly give the LIE to ‘it’s free power’ which I hear several times a day on our ABC- today by an ‘economist’ !
a replacement cost of 15% plus 15% maintenance p.a. and a load factor of ? 40% means nameplate divided by cost may be in the order of $400+ / MWh generated – I await budding investigative journalists telling us what it really is
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It won’t work. Why is this still a secret?
10
Windmill generators are quite prone to gearbox bearing failures caused by false brinelling in turn caused by mounting the generator on a tall flagpole instead of what sensible qualified generation experts do, bolt their machinery down to a solid concrete base.
10
Oh dear! Well not wood thgen.
“Researchers: Wood Burning Unsustainable, Huge Footprint…”Will Accelerate Warming For Decades” ”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/18/researchers-wood-burning-unsustainable-huge-footprintwill-accelerate-warming-for-decades/
00
Even crazier is in Germany where farmers get paid to grow crops for biofuels to be burnt in power generators on the farm itself and then supplied to the grid. Without government subsidies this wouldn’t make sense. At some farms they have huge plastic tanks which they fill with crops till they rot, then they burn the resulting biogas to generate power. Nuts. This is how they meet their emissions targets since these sources of electricity aren’t counted, as they are classed as renewable and carbon neutral by EU regulations. Nuts again.
10
Just returned from a weekend near Lithgow NSW.
Beautiful clear skys drew my attention to a distant hill with a permanent white cloud rising vertically ?…my curiosity forced me to investigate, and i drove the 20kms to discover the Mt Piper coal power plant.
Its a prime example of what a generator should be, very impressive even from a distance, but they do also have a Mt Piper “Discovery” center which is facinating.
But as with so many of our great Australian achievements, this has also been hobbled by dumb politics.
First being sold from State ownership to private operators
Then having 2 of the original intended 700MW generators, prevented from completion
And also from having much of the local coal supply collieries closed..no doubt from political interests .
Despite being designed originally as multiple 660 MW turbines, they can be shown to run frequently for days at 730 MW from each of the operating units…29 years after they were first commissioned !
However, it is equally obvious that one or both generators are becoming less and less utilised at maximum capacity for some reason, and they are now planned to be shut down earlier than designed,..by 2040…a mere 47 years young !
There are plans approved to add another 2 x 1000MW units on the site ?….
…..i wonder if anyone has the ball5 to make that happen still ?
I recommend a visit if you are in the area (Sydney to Mudgee/Bathurst road)
30
“For every green job we create we destroy two to five real ones.”
Have you ever driven past a wind or solar farm and noticed the carpark full of workers cars…. no, me either.
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[…] guru on the energy crisis is blogger TonyfromOz. On June 18, 2022 he made the following observation at JoNova: “A perfectly good civilisation is going to waste”, […]
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