Last month UK Ministers were warned that six million households could enjoy blackouts for dinner this winter. To try to stave off disaster, the UK Business Secretary has already written to the owners of the last three remaining coal fired power plants to ask them to stay running through winter. This is despite them being set to close in September.
Given the dire shortage of cheap energy, another plan is to pay British households up to £6 for each kilowatt-hour they don’t use at peak time. While a normal kilowatt-hour would cost 28p, the blistering premium price shows how desperate the National Grid planners must be. The last thing they want is everyone to come home, turn on the oven and washing machine and plug in their scooters and EV’s at 6pm.
So now possibly in a grand experiment, as well as trying to control the weather with windmills, millions of families may try to reschedule body clocks somehow, eating later, doing laundry later, watching the melatonin-destroying blue-screens-of-insomnia after 10pm and running the drier while they sleep. Maybe it won’t be so bad, or maybe people will be more sleep deprived and less productive, fatter, or crash their cars on the A6 as they drive right over 200 trillion cubic feet of gas in Lancashire that could have easily kept the lights on. Hopefully the drier won’t catch fire at night.
Sometime 20 years from now, people at Oxford will get a nice grant to study what happened to the lifespan and health of the working class and the poor during the winter of the Energy Crisis. They may not find a conclusive link with house fires, car accidents, falls or school performance, but that’s OK, there’s always another grant for that.
How families could be PAID up to £6 to ‘ration’ electricity at peak times
Daily Mail
Families are struggling with energy bills that have jumped by 54 per cent (an average of £693) this year.
It [National Grid ESO] is believed to have written to suppliers last week asking them to assess how much less energy their customers could be persuaded to use at peak times.
Ultimately everyone who uses electricity at dinnertime will pay more so other people can have less.
The cost of the scheme would be added onto energy bills but the National Grid is said to believe the additional charge would be less than the cost of paying power plants to increase supply.
TonyFromOz on dinner time electricity pain in Australia
…Click to enlarge | Anero.id
Look at that evening Peak of maximum power consumption, and last night that was at 6.05PM. Incidentally, it’s at that same time year round day in day out, 365 days a year, and has been at that same time forever. In Summer it might be somewhat hidden by HVAC (air conditioning) power consumption, which is so much higher, but the evening Peak has always been at that time, you know the time the power retailers charge the most for, telling the gullible gulls people that they can avoid the peak cost by moving their power consumption to cheaper times, you know come home from school and work some other time. Have your main evening family meal at some other time, watch TV etc at some other time. Live without lighting till some other time. Tell you children to do their homework some other time. Charge your phones at some other time. Move the habits of everyone of many many many lifetimes to ….. some other time.
So let’s utilise that known for Centuries time of day and change the cost to a higher rate, eh!
No good encouraging people to indulge in nostalgic daydreams about the past.
Just check the NemWatch widget and get on with the day.
Look at all the beautiful green this morning!
260
NSW is using 1000 MW more than its generating. Wind contributes a miserable 500 MW. Hey Matt Kean and Bowen you are really dreaming.
570
Probably not dreaming, more likely following orders from the UN climate hoax politicians.
140
the UN politicians?
39
LOL.. ga thinks the UN isn’t all to do with politics !
100
Unelected bureaucrats.
60
Thank the Queen for poor investment strategy is buying up this scam…
Hook…line…and sinker.
At least her deceased husband understood it wasn’t a good investment in his letters.
251
Wind farms absolutely useless, says Prince Philip.
250
You are living in the past.
22
Also see:
https://www.advanceaustralia.org.au/prince_philip_said_wind_turbines_are_useless_monstrosities
90
It’s a pity some of his common sense didn’t rub off on his eldest son.
270
Demand total is 30,655, supply total is 30,657, an apparent buffer of 2 MW. Does this mean that there is no reserve?
100
No it just means things are operating normally, its not a statement about reserves
40
When supply exceeds demand – what happens to the difference? Do we know what we are talking about?
20
That can never happen. Other than minor losses Supply must always equal demand, and it’s calculated and adjusted every five minutes. New power is added to raise supply, and when demand falls, then so does supply on a last on first off basis.
They KNOW when that evening Peak will be, and power plants are ready with their bids, and ready to deliver on that five minute notice. The lowest bid for the next five minute bracket gets the nod, and then they get ready for the same thing all over again for the next five minutes. At the end of the half hour (every half hour) the costs are averaged and each plant delivering power to the grid during that half hour gets paid that (half hour) average for all they power they delivered in that last half hour.
Get that single most important three words in all of this ….. “Ready to deliver”.
That umm, sort of counts out wind and solar.
Tony.
210
You could be forgiven for thinking that some people in the ‘reliable’ power industry have been very comfortable, with the way the ‘competition’ has gone over the last 20 years.
10
That umm, sort of counts out wind and solar.
Yes – I agree with the thinking that energy providers must provide a guaranteed level of supply (allowing for rare and unforeseen equipment outages that do not include a failure of the fuel source).
Solar and Wind would have to guarantee the energy they deliver or suffer penalties, including compensation to consumers.
10
yes I do, but thanks for asking
10
Putin & Xi must spend half their days p@ssing themselves laughing.
summed up by Cartoon Accompanying “Charge”
180
Where do I find a key to the colours on the NEM widget please? Black is coal, etc.Thanks.
10
Right underneath the bar graph. Or click on the bar graph on any colour and it will tell you what that power source is.
10
Brian, i find it much elearer and more detailed to view the State specific charts on this link..
And there is a clear ledgend on each chart..
http://nemlog.com.au/gen/region/nsw/
00
Our problem in the UK is that supply and demand is very closely matched. A high pressure in winter would mean no wind and no sun so no weather dependent renewables creating power especially on cold nights. This over reliance on renewables grows as more gas and coal power stations are closed, nuclear stations remain way behind schedule and interconnections to Europe remain fragile due to their extreme hostility over brexit, not helped by a shortage of French nuclear power.
We still get 50% of our gas needs from the north sea and can probably tweak that a bit plus we have a reliable gas partner in Norway.
A Long cold dull windless winter would ordinarily drive us over the edge as regards suffocient energy. This year though there are two big factors. As the economy slows so industry will require less. Due to the huge hike in prices domestic consumers are likely to use much less power than normal. So that probably makes up the potential 5 or 10% shortfall.
So it is touch and go dependent on weather and the economy. Much of Europe is in a far worse situation.
302
Most cost sensitive electric consumers have already cut consumption to essential use, the vast majority of UK heating is gas. It’s unlikely domestic winter electricity demand will be significantly lower than past winters. If gas is in short supply, not only will electric generation suffer, but people will be using 3kw heaters by the million!
130
You keep repeating the term “renewables” while making the very obvious point they are anything but “renewable”. You are unwittingly joining the propaganda machine for all this nonsense.
W&S generators, using present technology for energy extraction, are unrenewable. Their present cost reflects the fact that they were built, transported and erected using fossil fuels. If it came to replacing them with the energy they can produce then there is nothing left to power all the other things that modern societies enjoy. All human endeavour would be directed at maintaining an energy supply extracted from wind and solar power.
There are currently two sustainable renewable energy sources – hydroelectric and biomass. There are niche opportunities for W&S in certain circumstances to offer sufficient ERoEI to make their use worthwhile.
370
agree re the words. I try never to use the “r” word with quotes or a so called in front of it.
language is important, thats why the left try to manipulate it so much to put people on the defensive.
100
Rick
I did use the term ‘weather dependent’ but being long winded I didnt want to repeat it. I like this term as it hopefully gets over that this energy is dependent on the weather gods.
40
Unreliables is the correct term.
Also, even though solar and wind theoretically have niche applications for which they might be suitable, they don’t even work on King and Flinders Islands in Bass Strait where conceivably they might be of use.
40
david
if you use the word’ unreliables’ it has no context to the general public unless you explain what you mean. “Weather dependent renewables’ is surely more expressive?
11
Good morning Jo,
So our new PM. believes that family-friendly parliament sitting times, after school holidays, is more important than the power crisis that beset his administration before the ink dried on the GG’s. documents swearing in his initial five interim ministry.
If you voted red/green/teal last month you might find this observation a little hard to swallow!?
I know the “Rub of the Green” is running all the left’s way at the moment, and that is perfectly proved by my next observation.
The first business day after the election a gas company declared itself bankrupt, the initial cause of all the power crisies we have seen in the last two & a half weeks, but of course we have seen next to no mention of this in the extremely selective coverage in our “lame-stream mejia”!
The morally & financially bankrupt administration of electricity in this country will not be corrected until the over-whelming majority of people wake up to the corrupt nature of alleged “renewable” power.
Warm regards, reformed warmist of Logan.
430
Cloth eared is in common use here in the UK but surprised it has travelled overseas
It derives from the noise in cotton mills
https://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/cloth-ears.html
Perhaps who ever used it was a fan of John Cleese who used the phrase in fawlty towers if you got that programme over there
120
Yes, we’ve had it here for decades, and yes we got and loved, Fawlty Towers here too.
100
Never heard it before, maybe its a regional thing. But them I have seen every episode of Fawlty Towers multiple times and never noticed it as well. I guess its in some of Basils rants.
40
the term used by Basil is “cloth eared bint”.
20
Whoops number 4 posted in wrong thread.! Sorry
30
This is hilarious! One idea that would alleviate the problem would be, at times of peak demand, to cut all electrical power to any buildings that have solar panels or wind turbines attached to them.
ROFLMAO!
[Point taken, snark understood. But it would violate the supplier services contract with customers and thus be illegal. – LVA]
10
The real source of this problem is in the political manipulation, greed and arrogant indifference to the suffering of “we the people”.
Could we turn the tables and insist that politicians only be paid according to performance?
In recent decades the “failures” in planning have led to the rationing of water to households and denial of access to river water for adjacent farms; money saved on dam construction redistributed by politicians for their own benefit.
Running side by side has been the throttling down of coal fired generators and the “necessary” reduction in industrial activity to compensate. An aluminum smelter can take up the off peak load when “generators” run most economically creating constant flow of electrons.
Unfortunately, the automotive industry runs three shifts, 24 hours a day, so it had to be closed.
The cost to Australia and Australians of this power misdirection has been monumental and needs to be addressed.
So, if politicians were payed on their “performance” and not just on the appearance of performance, how would it go?
Could we give them pay based on their performance in maintaining and restoring electricity to homes and industry, that should work.
How quickly would politicians get the message if their pay was cut by twenty percent until such time as the grid allowed smelters to function without constant anxiety, offices to open locally without the need to “offshore” and homes not to be messed about with ridiculous control devices on the switchboard.
Maybe, cut their pay, “till some other time”.
240
Don’t agree – The real cause is the sheer ‘head in the sand’ stupidity of ‘we the people’.
Whenever I’ve tried to point out where this was headed to the younger members of the family, at any time in the last 20 years.
I’ve been dismissed with ‘Technology will solve it’ It look likes they are just going to have to piss on the electric fence for themselves.
270
Yes,
there are many sides to this story and I’ve mentioned one.
Expecting the average person to understand the complexities of electricity generation and distribution is not possible; that’s why we elect politicians to select highly qualified people to run specialist branches of infrastructure.
When politicians select the wrong person for the job or ignore and override their expertise for dubious reasons then, they are being dishonest and should be removed from office.
It all comes down to trust or dishonesty of those acting on behalf of the non expert voters.
We have experts in brain surgery and space travel which the average voter “trusts”.
Unfortunately we can’t trust our politicians and that urgently needs fixing.
140
“Unfortunately we can’t trust our politicians and that urgently needs fixing.”
Unfixable so long as you vote for people who want to be in power… For every guy in a bar who can think of (usually one) thing some PM did to become “Australia’s greatest PM”, there are 4 guys standing there saying what a clot he was.
People who WANT power shouldn’t be allowed it! They will never look after the country, they will look after their position. Those two goals do not align. Democracy is a fail.
Not trusting politicians, the lame-stream media and the medical industry is the greatest development of my lifetime.
40
Expecting the average person to understand the complexities of electricity generation and distribution is not possible.
It’s not all that complex, Everyone wants power 24/7, you don’t need to be Einstein to work out that means generators have run 24/7 as well.
You just have to THINK about it.
10
Can we ‘outsource’ them, seems the go
90
I’d like to put sauce all over them and stake the on an ants nest.
80
The pollies will be paying us we will get a different lot of scumbags
20
Worth buying a diesel generator for 6 pounds a KWHh
neighborhood peak time scheme in the making better build up a record of high peak time usage
90
6 pounds a kwh will soon pay it off, you will need it in the future anyway.
40
I’ve been getting grief ( and giving it back ) from EoN, my Power supplier ( isn’t it odd that our GOv has PUT them ( German) in charge of my account after my Supplier ( british) went South, based on Gov’s ideas of free competition, etc etc ) , regarding installing SMART ( or not so ) Meters. ‘another plan is to pay British households up to £6 for each kilowatt-hour they don’t use at peak time’ … so will this tempt me ? Could switch off completely and crank up my diesel Generator and have fun. Nah! on Principle and others, NOPE! I’ll just enjoy earth days with plenty light in the house and consume, if only to hammer the point home about their Silliness. If you cannae beat them, then gonnae join them !
100
But having your own diesel ready for the peak time power outages will be handy.
NZ also being warned of potential outages, all unnecessary if we have the right amount of baseload coal power runnable in addition to all our existing hydro, and a bit of geothermal, and insignificant amounts of ultra-high-cost unreliables.
80
In Q1 2022, Aemo paid AUD51M for emergency reserve of 331MW being available for 4 hours. I do not know how much power was produced as that is not stated.
So AUD51M for 1324MWh of potential dispatchable energy is somewhat expensive – works out at AUD38k/MWh or AUD154k/MW of dispatchable capacity.
GDP6/kWh translates to AUD12,000/MWh. Is peanuts compared with what dispatchable emergency power is costing in Australia.
You have to realise what happens when the lights go out, food spoiling from fridges warming up and people dying of cold or heat to understand why AVAILABLE energency power is so highly prized. Also highly likely that a Prime Minister presiding over a country literally in the dark will have a certain future that is not their current position.
60
Yes, indeed. 1. I forgot to ‘factor in’ the Modern cost of diesel – no longer rebated diesel for generators ( anywhere? – not even on farms – FFS no happy farmer, NO good food being produced, etc etc ) Oh hoh! That’s another thing – trying to smart meter me – And turn off my power a.) Can’t milk the Bull, Can’t feed the Cockerels, NO eggs, no Chicken. Bacon anyone? INdoor animals rely on electric power fortheir well-being. 2. As for a PM presiding over a coountry in the dark? THe ENTIRE bunch of them ( probably in all Parliaments ) nodded through the various stupid measures we have , from Eco trash to Covitrash. … we’d just be voting back in another fortress of idiots.
20
I heard the Albo loony telling the EU this morning that Aussies were now helping to fight climate change by promising much more misery than the previous Coalition govt.
These people must be the dumbest leaders for thousands of years, because the data couldn’t be easier to understand, but alas they really are that stupid.
China, India and other developing countries’ co2 emissions are soaring and have been for decades while the OECD countries’ co2 emissions haven’t increased since 1970.
What is it about this simple co2 emissions data over the last 50 years that these donkeys don’t understand?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/15/World_fossil_carbon_dioxide_emissions_six_top_countries_and_confederations.png
280
As I have said before, Neville, keep posting that graph. And everyone should send it to their political “representatives”.
100
Their goal is to destroy the west and they are using the “climate change” hoax and “decarbonisation” as a vehicle to get there. They are milking it as much as they possibly can no matter how ridiculous it sounds. And they can continue to do this as long as fake MSM keeps a significant part of population dumbed down.
200
Nev
I have been doodling about the number of turbines needed for Net Zero in Australia.
Assuming Peak demand of 35,000MWh would require about 38,890 turbines at (roughly) 117 – 122 billion (depending on the CF).
Plus about 2,250 billion for batteries to cover a 3 day wind drought, for a total of $2.64 TRILLION.. or just over $100,000 for each Australian.
If supply has to be boosted (roughly) 42% for increased demand for heating and charging EVs etc. the overall cost is approx. $3.78 TRILLION or $146,000 for each Australian.
That’s capital cost. There would be maintenance etc. and given the short life of turbines, a repeat charge ever 20 years.
I am not sure this would be popular if known.
00
Hi Graeme,
I’m reassured that we’re in the same ballpark re the number of wind turbines.
See my “doodling” from yesterday:
https://joannenova.com.au/2022/06/energy-is-power-but-the-wests-is-starving-itself/#comment-2562120
I’ve been hoping that “TonyfromOz” will buy into this.
He has said previously that the actual Capacity Factor for these things in Eastern Australia is
30 percent maximum. That’s the figure I used.
Re the battery requirement, I think it needs to cover a longer period than the 5 days I used there yesterday.
The more I think about it since posting yesterday, I think that the choice of period really does have to address the worst-case scenario, not just some sort of average.
Regards,
Paul Miskelly
10
Yeah, sorry Paul, I missed this. The older I get, the fewer the hours in the day!
There’s so many comments to look at here at Joanne’s site.
Like I indicated with this image here at this link, this is the one day in 2021 when all the indicators are as close as is possible to the year round average, and there are around eight of those indicators. It was such a long task.
As you can see that critical time of Peak Power consumption every day is at around 6PM, and what you see with this image is the average Peak for the year, and the average delivered by those four Renewables, (for want of a better word really) and as you can plainly see that gap is nigh on 20,000MW…… That’s just the average mind you, and while talking in averages is not absolute, it is indicative.
There are days in the year when that Peak is well up beyond 30,000MW, and that adds a further 4000MW PLUS to the gap. And the big day in 2021 had a Peak over 35,000MW.
ALL of that is an ABSOLUTE to supply. It just MUST be supplied, every day.
You CANNOT cover that with wind and new Hydro won’t help either ….. LOOK at that gap!
The conjecture exercise is 20,000MW difference and then factor in that 30% Capacity Factor.
That’s 67,000MW of NEW wind plant Nameplate.
The current Nameplate is 9854MW.
So, what is required here is the current TOTAL for every wind plant in the Country ….. MULTIPLIED BY SEVEN. And that’s just to cover the average, so add another current total or two to that to cover those really high days.
Now, you can do the academic exercise for the numbers like this, but that’s seven to ten times the current Nameplate (ALL of it replaced every 15 to 20 years)
That’s SIXTY wind plants the size of the current largest wind plant in the Country.
Where the hell are you going to put them? How long would it take to construct them? Where does the money come from?
And then there will be times, well, once a week going on past history, when no matter how many turbines there are, the wind falls away to nothing and instead of having 9854MW Nameplate mostly stationary, there will be 30,000MW of wind Nameplate mainly stationary.
There’s not enough Batteries in a ‘thought bubble’ to even cover for all that.
I mean, I can do the maths, but where are they going to go?
Tony.
10
Just extend Nordstream 2 to the UK. Putin’s got plenty of gas for everyone. But if Europe doesnt want it, and it would rather be a basket case like the Ukraine, then the Chinese will get the gas. They will blame Putin, but it’s their own idiocy that has got them where they are.
As another example of idiocy, Germany’s largest BASF plant (which uses 4% of total gas demand in Germany and which employs 40000 people) is considering closing. https://alethonews.com/2022/06/27/germanys-largest-basf-plant-may-close-due-to-gas-shortage/
Of course the Greens in Germany are egging on the war as much as they can. How better to deindustrialise Germany than to sanction Russian energy?
160
The Chinese are receiving more Russian gas anyway with their second pipeline – they aren’t being impacted by what’s happening in Europe.
50
Australia will follow the pioneering lead of Once Great Britain because Australia always looks to the failed policies of others to adopt.
To compensate for having little and soon no dispatchable power in Australia I can see a situation where people are either encouraged to or forced to install batteries, even without solar panels.
As more unreliables are installed and more power stations destroyed, it will be important to capture and store solar and wind power on those rare occasions when they are available.
And in the more extreme Leftist states like Vicdanistan, you can even forget about burning wood to keep warm because the Andrews regime introduced further restrictions on firewood collection from public land.
Forget about gas as well in Vicdanistan, there is already a push to ban gas connection to new homes. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/21/bid-to-ban-new-gas-connections-to-homes-to-be-launched-by-victorian-greens
And Canada is phasing out natural gas from 2023. https://www.ecohome.net/guides/3667/when-will-natural-gas-be-phased-out-usa-canada-uk/
I believe gas connection to new homes is already banned in parts of Kaliforniastan.
More failed policies for Australia to follow.
They really do want you to freeze in the dark.
250
In mid-70s Britain, we had rampant trades unionism, the 3-day week and rolling electricity blackouts. I specifically remember doing my physics homework by candlelight, which in retrospect has a certain perverse charm.
110
It took a Conservative takeover with a certain Iron Lady leading the charge to turn all of that around. I doubt if the millennials have the brain power to vote for something like that. I had a colleague about 2 years ago who told me how much her parents “hated” Maggie Thatcher “for what she did to Britain” and I could only shake my head – this girl claimed to be intelligent.
40
With daylight saving in the eastern states excluding QLD, the meal times shifted, at least in Summer it is, now to solve Winter.
40
We stayed in a place once that had a timer lock out on the washing machine so you couldnt use it between noon and 2:30. The area had a strong go home for a cooked lunch culture and a marginal power supply.
20
I actually phoned up the AEMO, and got put through to an Engineer, and asked specifically about that time difference because of Daylight Savings ….. because, well, you know, electrical power is an Instantaneous at any one point in time.
He explained to me that the ‘Default’ time setting is Queensland time.
So, when it is 5PM in Queensland, then it’s 6PM in those States and 5.30PM in SouthAus.
The line gets drawn down the page at 5PM, (as an example) and all power being consumed at that time, (and for any time of the day as well) no matter in which State, then that is what the data reflects ….. if you can see that point. What it most effectively does is spread out that evening Peak in DST periods, because people are consuming power in ….. real time, so that 6PM Peak when it arrives in NSW and Victoria is at 5PM in Queensland, and as that Peak passes in NSW and Victoria, and with the slight reduction it takes off that Peak, then the Peak in Queensland arrives.
The Engineer mentioned to me that I was not mentioning SouthAus, and I shrugged it off, telling him that SouthAus only consumes 6.5% of all AEMO power consumption, so that SouthAus Peak is akin to a bee f@rt underwater in a Cyclone, and his reply was that it was nice to talk to someone who at least had some idea of what was going on with power generation.
So after some technical chit chat, I surmised with an ‘Oh, well, I guess Queensland won’t be having Daylight Savings Time any time soon as that of itself would almost significantly raise that Summer Peak.”
His reply ….. Huh! You do know what you’re talking about then.
Tony.
150
Nice work TfO, really enjoy your knowledgeable posts and insights to the intricacies of the grid. If only you could get in front of some (all) of our pollies to clue them up about how the generation mix affects the outcomes for Australian consumers. W & S must be the bane of grid controllers, I really feel sorry for them having to pander to political propaganda overruling pragmatic and robust engineering principles.
40
I tried to do bold “are” but the word was scrubbed.
20
Try the HTML code uses the (no spacing). This can be inserted into your reply and won’t appear in your reply, but everything after that will be bold until you turn it off by .
It also works with i instead of b if you want italics, and strike instead of b to get text crossed out.
30
RATS, reminder Preview First.
that didn’t work. That was the back arrow b forward arrow, with back arrow /b forward arrow
40
Graeme, do you know if fixed pitch font is possible using HTML code? It used to be possible via a button but I think the feature was removed.
10
Sorry David M., I don’t know but if these links help…
https://www.html.am/reference/html-special-characters.cfm
https://www.w3schools.com/TAGs/tag_code.asp
10
“Given the dire shortage of cheap energy, another plan is to pay British households up to £6 for each kilowatt-hour they don’t use at peak time.”
I can remember when we had an off peak electric hot water storage tank.
90
I believe off peak electric hot water is still available, I have it at a property of mine but that is an existing installation. Not sure if there are new installations as in new houses in Vicdanistan I think they are requiring solar hot water or electric heat pump hot water.
20
Yes I still have off peak electric hot water. It used to be very economical. Hot water part of my bills ran at $20 a quarter in a $300 bill in the early 90s, & that was with 6 people in the house, not just 2.
Today not do much. It is only 0.05C per kWh cheaper than the full rate, & runs at $110 per quarter on an $810 bill.
Living in the bush is great, but it gets expensive these days with your own domestic water pressure pump systems, & grey water pump out systems to power with our once cheap electricity.
60
That off peak charge has increased relatively more than the peak charges for my electricity supplier. It’s not the bargain it used to be.
60
Global Warming has seen the end of many governments in Australia. No doubt just as many internationally. Strange thing with such results. I’m starting to favour the whole hoax.
Let’s see how many more will fall because of these dummies!
A government with just a few brain cells can see that the current energy situations around the world actually gives them a grand opportunity to reverse their attempts to destroy their countries economies.
Let’s wait & see where governmental brain’s actually reside!
60
Hahahaha. Lol. wow, just wow. All so predictable, and all in the face of their super arrogance
70
Looks like the UK is heading for another “Winter of Discontent”.
100
People need to understand that the mass installation of unreliables is not about replacing one energy source with another.
It is also about minimising and restricting the ready availability of inexpensive and reliable power because the Left Elites know there is a direct correlation between energy consumption and standard of living. (More can be consumed if it is available and of a reasonable price, neither of which are characteristics of unreliables.)
The ultimate objective is to reduce the standard of living of the West to a subsidence level, and ultimately pre-industrial, pre-Enlightenment times.
We are being returned to serfdom. (See book by Friedrich von Hayek, The Road to Serfdom, 1944, as to where we are heading and why.)
And it doesn’t just stop at energy, even though that is also a fundamental input into everything related to out Western standard of living.
An example you can already see, and I keep warning about, the Left’s war against meat and the promotion of what they call “alternative protein”, meaning insects. You may have noticed increasing attempts to normalise this aspect of diet. Even the CSIRO (Australia’s once-prestigious government research organisation) are researching and promoting this and there was a recent article in the RACV (motoring organisation!) magazine about this.
Obama’s policies in the US were quite explicitly about “bring America down a notch” in terms of standard of living and international prestige, and his puppet Biden is continuing those policies with a vengeance. These policies are also being pursued with vigour by other Western “leaders”, including Australia’s.
141
Let’s not forget the other activity that could happen at peak time and put more strain on the system, that is plugging the EV into the charger
60
You’ll get a choice. At night you can either charge your EV or have lights and power. Or maybe you will have to charge your EV in increments such as ten percent each night.
60
Wasn’t the dream that all those plugged in EVs would feedback into the grid and be a wonderful power source? Its completely illogical when you think about it but yeah, nirvana, fairy dust, why not?
80
Not a day goes by where I don’t rejoice in my decision 10 years ago to go off grid.
Our bush block would have required $100,000 to extend grid power to our block, whereas a 5kW solar system was only $50,00.
A no-brainer.
Designing a new house from scratch we were able to optimise insulation, thermal mass, and orientation.
Plenty of timber and a huge slow combustion heater mean ample heating.
Living in a cool climate means no air conditioning needed- merely ceiling fans.
An average day we use 8-9 kWh- well within the capabilities of the system.
Pb batteries rather than Li firestarters, and we have no issues with running TV’s, dishwasher or washing machine.
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Well that’s nice to know : another privileged ‘doctor’ solipsistically thinking of and writing about yourself and your little patch of renewable’s paradise …..What of others in urban environments and warmer locales still renting or retired pensioners who cannot afford your landed gentry Green dacha lifestyle ?.. Think of the Alice Springs blackout caused by passing clouds. .Then of course we are expected to believe that you have not experienced any complications off grid on trust …What you wrote does not match what I have heard from so many others .In nearly all states and countries [ Denmark ; the United Kingdom ; South Australia ; Victoria ; California ] where utopian renewable energy programs are mandated electricity prices have skyrocketed. But of course soaring energy bills only hurt the hoi polloi don’t they doctor ? Quite the no brainer
22
That’s a bit harsh. The point about connection cost is real and equivalent to 50 years electricity supply in the suburbs.
No doubt he would rather have grid power but renewables and batteries are the only real option away from the mainstream supply lines.
10
That’s quite unfair and judgemental and certainly sounds very sarcastic. I think Doctor T has made some sensible arrangements under the circumstances; we would have done similar while rebuilding if there had not already been an electricity supply to the old house here. Our new neighbour is going off-grid as the cost of access to it is beyond ridiculous. BTW, we are pensioners living on far less than the amount it appears that single 30-year-olds with one child seem to scrape by on, if the latest census is to be believed.
20
Mr. Hamish is a bit rough on the bush doctor, but for KK and Annie, I’ll say this- as I read Dr.T’s post, I was thinking of the dems in the US who are sooooo happy to tell you that their EV doesn’t need $5 gas. Rich folk telling the poor to eat cake is what I got from Dr. T, along with Hamish
00
O.K. So you’ve got a good imagination.
00
Thank you Keith and Annie.
Stuart presumes to doubt my truthfulness and concern for victims of power policies.
I appreciate you both seeing my point for what it was- I am fortunate but many are not.
Interesting there were 16 thumbs up for my comment and one thumbs down.
I believe the ability to be grateful for any of one’s blessings in life is a central pillar in one’s journey towards attaining wisdom- Stuart does not seem to agree.
10
Stuart- you know nothing about me or my circumstances. How do you know I am “privileged”? Quite an arrogant reply from you.
I was merely pointing out that I am fortunate to have not had to rely on the grid for reliable power.
That does not imply lack of concern for the victims and again you know nothing of my advocacy for those people.
20
That is the impression I had too Paul . ” Those people ” ? You mean the hoi polloi Doctor T ? Forgive me for detecting a sense of elitist detachment on your part from ‘those people ” It must be said you expressed no empathy for those who cannot afford a Green dacha lifestyle at all, nor did you articulate or even intimate that you were ‘fortunate to have not had to rely on on the grid for reliable power ” which I construed as a belated rationalization . You made no comment on the negative repercussions of ‘ renewable energy ,namely skyrocketing energy prices . We have no idea if you are telling the truth about the prospective costs of your property’s grid connection, as we are not familiar with your identity to make an informed judgement . You were only concerned to proselytize the “wonder’s” of renewable power and your idyllic bucolic lifestyle . If you want to understand why I have scant respect for so many Australian ‘doctors’ [ with a few exceptions ] – apart from personally embittering experiences with some dodgy woke psychiatrists – read my extensive debunking of the Japanese Encephalitis Virus scaremongering in the comments section of Joanne’s Tuesday Open Thread post and the Victorian Department of Health junk science paper co authored by Brett Sutton in the comments section under Sterling Burnett’s article ” CNN Hypes False Dengue Fever Claims ,Putting Climate Fears Ahead of Facts Again ” June 9, 2022 . I am not a trained medical professional yet even I can see the sickening pervasiveness of green left ‘ Medical Lysenkoism ” which is particularly egregious in the state of Victoria. Openly and publicly criticizing those medical professionals ‘ and their disgraceful pseudoscientific climate quackery here on this page might allay concerns though Doctor T. Go ahead
A “no brainer” if ever there was one
00
Some very angry and uninformed statements Stuart.
“Those people” relates to the aforementioned “victims”, meaning those victims of current power policy.
It is a simple sentence with no underlying connotation.
You appear to have an issue with doctors in general.
Again, you do not know me and cannot possibly infer my philosophy from a comment stating my good fortune in life, or should none of us express gratitude for anything we have?
10
Start with goodwill ? The sanctimonious doctor contradicted himself
00
Looks my comment has been blotted or censored so I will post again
” Stuart presumes to doubt my truthfulness and concern for victims of power policies .. I am fortunate but many are not ….Interesting there were 16 thumbs up for my comment and one thumbs down . I believe the ability to be grateful for any of ones blessings in life is a central pillar in ones journey towards attaining wisdom . Stuart does not seem agree ”
Why would I be inclined to agree with someone so profoundly insecure and narcissistic that he felt compelled to highlight his multiple ‘thumbs up ” notifications as if to convey the impression he had prevailed in the debate .? Of course the thumbs up notifications could not have been doctored [ that is to say buffed ] anymore than mine are shadow banned . As for his vaunted ‘ truthfulness ” consider the embarrassing fact the doctor accused me of ‘arrogance ‘ for suggesting he is ” privileged ‘ only to acknowledge he is privileged by his own admission : ” I am fortunate but many are not ” Doctor T is not even honest with himself Must be some character fault he picked up on the road to scintillating ‘wisdom ” Why should I have to ” infer’ the doctors philosophy ” when he is free to elucidate it here or is he emabarrassed about it ? He is such a paragon of ” truthfulness ” he refuses to clarify what he means by ‘ power policies ‘ and who the ‘victims ‘ of said power policies are. Nor will he criticize the downsides of renewable energy or the disgraceful pseudoscientific climate quackery of the medical professionals I mentioned above Perhaps his ‘truthfulness ” got the better of him .
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What makes you think he is a fellow ‘skeptic” given Doctor T refuses to criticize the downsides of renewable energy Joanne ?.. Why are you demanding I ‘tone it down a bit “” and not his smarmy accusatory tone ? His pompous sense of truthfulness is dubious noting he contradicted himself .” He is more likely to absorb your wisdom if you act wisely ” ? .Strange I have never observed you wax about New Age ‘wisdom’ before Joanne .I still recall your 2019 blog article ” We need to protect our health system from climate change doctors “
00
This ” wisdom” ?
” How do you know I am privileged . Quite an arrogant reply from you ” So ‘arrogant ” the doctor admitted to his own ” good fortune in life “
00
AGAIN never forget that the warming effect of extra co2 emissions declines logarithmically as we continue to add more co2 to the atmosphere.
You can see the graph to understand the big reduction of the co2 warming effect after the first 100 ppm of co2.
See the explanation from the link and Atmospheric Scientists Prof Happer, Prof Lindzen, Dr Spencer etc are the best sources to understand the future co2 warming effect.
https://co2coalition.org/facts/water-vapor-is-the-primary-greenhouse-gas-3/
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Here’s that description of the diminished co2 warming effect after the first 100 ppm from Prof Happer.
“Climate scientists have determined, and both sides agree, that the warming effect of each molecule of CO2 decreases significantly (logarithmically) as its concentration increases. This is one reason why there was no runaway greenhouse warming when the concentration of CO2 was approaching 20 times that of today. This inconvenient fact, important though it is, is kept very well hidden and is rarely mentioned, for it undermines the theory of future catastrophic climate change. Diminishing returns apply.
A more detailed description of the chart for the physics aficionados is provided here by Dr. William Happer:
“The blue curve shows how the thermal radiation flux Z(C) from Earth to space changes with the concentration C of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. This example is for a temperate, summertime latitude. C is measured in parts per million (ppm) of all atmospheric molecules. At the current value of the CO2 concentration, about C = 400 ppm, the flux is Z(400 ppm) = 277 Watts per square meter (W/m^2). If all the CO2 could be removed from Earth’s atmosphere, so C = 0, but there were no changes in the concentrations of the remaining greenhouse gases (water vapor, ozone, methane and nitrous oxide) and no changes in the atmospheric temperature profile, the flux would be larger, Z(0 ppm)= 307 Watts (W/m^2), shown by the blue dot on the vertical axis of the graph. Adding the greenhouse gas CO2 diminishes the flux to space, very rapidly for the first few parts per million of CO2, as one can see from the blue curve. But as more CO2 is added a law of diminishing returns comes into play. The blue curve is almost flat for current concentrations of CO2, so the greenhouse effect is very insensitive to changes in CO2 concentrations. In the jargon of radiative transfer the greenhouse effect is said to be “saturated.”
The vertical red lines show the decrease of flux to space caused by successive increases of the CO2 concentration C by 50 ppm increments. The increments are so small that they need to be multiplied by a factor of 100 to be clearly visible on the graph. Except for concentrations C that are almost zero, every doubling of CO2 concentrations decreases the radiation to space by 3 W. For example, the first red bar show that increasing C from 50 ppm to 100 ppm decreases the radiation to space by 300/100 W/m^2 = 3 W/m^2.”
Source(s): Wijngaarden-Happer 2020, Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
Source(s): Happer 2021 Personal Communications
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Guy Callendar 1938 had it right.
http://i0.wp.com/powerline.wpengine.com/ed-assets/2013/08/callendar-1938-logarithm-annotated.png?resize=580%2C451
A engineer (specifically steam**) and aware of Beer’s law (or Beer-Lambert Law to nit pickers).
**When I went to work for CSR in the late ’60s the steam heating chest in the newer (post war) vacuum pans for sugar making were known as callendars.
Guy’s father drew up early Steam Tables and he extended these.
20
Neville,
You do know that the basic concept of CO2 driven atmospheric warming is highly contested ?..with good reason ..
. Also, you still seem to accept that it is human activity that is the source of the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere…
…..again a highly debateable view !
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I have a simple question.
The (lunch time) home solar is by definition in residential suburbs.
Their 240 volt home supply is from local step down transformers which reduce voltage from say 11,000 volts to the 240volts.
So firstly how does domestic solar ever leave the suburb for say smelting aluminium?
And secondly why do solar users get paid for their excess electricity which is unusuable for industry?
But then windmill owners also receive millions per windmill as a bonus from the sale of coal/gas/diesel electricity by cashing in their Green certificates. If the RET law was eliminated, electricity prices would halve, but then the windmill and solar farms would close and coal would roar. And who wants to die in a fireball of +1C? The 1.45Billion Chinese are doomed.
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Typical coal fired generators pump power out at 11kV. They have large transformers to step up power to transmission level typically 330kV. Transformers work both ways. They do knot know which direction the power is flowing. There may be instruments on them to prevent reverse power flow so other generators cannot feed a fault on another generator.
Household generators work the same way by pumping up the street voltage till power flows back up the system. Since my neighbour installed his 6kW solar system, our street voltage regularly hits the regulating limit of 258V. Distributors a trying to resolved this overvoltage issue by installing automatic tap changers on distribution transformers so they can keep end voltage lower while taking more power up the system. Another reason why retail prices are so much higher than wholesale price (or were).
South Australia pretty much runs on rooftop solar at lunchtime in spring. Their rooftop solar is supplying some of the power to Portland smelter.
Reverse power flow creates lots of issues for system protection. The paper linked here describes one of the issues:
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-16-9033-4_1
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“drier” should be “dryer”. 🙂
10
I have a simple question.
Half the (lunch time only ) solar is residential roof top.
The domestic 240 volt supply is from local step down transformers which reduce voltage from say 11,000 volts to the 240volts.
So firstly how does domestic solar ever leave the suburb for say smelting aluminium? I do not see any way this is possible when distribution is 11,000 volts. Water does not flow uphill either.
And secondly why do solar users get paid for their excess electricity which is unusuable for industry?
But then windmill owners also receive millions per windmill as a bonus from the sale of coal/gas/diesel electricity by cashing in their Green certificates. If the RET law was eliminated, electricity prices would halve, but then the windmill and solar farms would close and coal would roar. And who wants to die in a fireball of +1C? The 1.45Billion Chinese are doomed.
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Rooftop solar does not leave the suburbs, hence the problem when there is too much and the push to turn it off by remote control:)
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And rooftop solar mainly delivers when we need it least – during the middle of the day in spring and autumn.
60
I would also argue that if the major (subsidized) use of rooftop solar was heating, say heating swimming pools for example, there are other much cheaper ways to capture solar for the purpose of heating. Forget the ‘grid’.
Australians used to use arrays of rooftop black hose which worked and directly heated the water. Plus as they are finding in the UK at latitudes of even 51+, the heat in the ground is fantastic and eternal and unaffected by daily cycles. We should be using the free planetary energy (it is always 12C at 3 metres down) to heat our homes and the same black tubing.
“The measured annual temperatures of ground at 2 m depth were between 14.7 °C and 19.8 °C”. And this sort of endless free heating is not being tapped, non polluting and eternal.
Why isn’t this being subsidised. No, it is all an attack on Carbon Dioxide, not a search for adequate energy.
And sorry for the multiple copies of the one comment, but I have not commented for some time.
130
I would add that black pipe is at least twice as efficient as solar panels as it captures infrared as well as UV, so at least twice the energy captured in the same area. This is one of the problems of replaceables, they are all focused on electricity when what may be needed is raw heat or mechanical work. Windmills really worked well with non time specific jobs like pumping water whether in Holland or outback Australia. They do not have the raw consistency to generate steady electricity for immediate use.
10
Yes, but my point is that in a suburb where everyone is generating solar electricity and no one is using solar, what was the point of the subsidies and what is the point of the pay in rate?
Specifically in the graph, the rooftop solar is unused and unusable and should not be shown as contributing to the grid despite the fact that we are all paying massively for rooftop lunchtime solar. Like electric cars, it is a pointless indulgence for the middle classes subsidized by people who struggle to pay their electricity bills.
110
“….what is the point of the pay in rate?” Probably, at some stage there was a bag of government money allocated towards uptake of solar. Possibly federal. It’s quite possible that the uptake of the money in that fund wasn’t fast enough. Mainly, because the economics of solar are difficult without all the incentives (bribes). In a strategy meeting, some public servant probably floated the idea of the pay in rate ( or tariff) to boost uptake. None of these ideas are original to Australia. Probably used in some overseas country like US eg. California. That’s my theory.
30
In fact it’s all part of the RET act, Renewable Energy(electricity) 2001 which artificially rips money out of energy vendors to give to Green energy suppliers. So when you buy energy from coal/gas/diesel/petrol you have to pay for ‘certificates’ which are sold by Green energy suppliers. This is the free cash which underpins all the ‘free’ handouts from subsidies for new rooftop solar to payin rates to millions per year per windmill in handouts. For nothing.
Repealing this act, an act which was copied in the UK, would halve energy costs overnight. And stop payments of your money to owners of windmills and solar panels because there is only stolen money, not ‘government’ money.
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Yep, exactly. The RET ( Renewable Energy Target) with all its incentives to increase uptake of solar and wind. The FIT was just another bribe to make governments look good or to adhere to some target that some government flunky or politician had signed Australia up to. Does it provide much useful electricity to the grid? Probably not.
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The FIT is counterproductive: It exaggerates the duck curve. As individuals we are entitled to look after No 1 and install it if it makes economic sense.
10
We think of rooftop solar as solar panels on residential house roofs but when I drive around I see solar panels on business premises roofs and schools as well, usually more panels than on house roofs so more electricity generated. So what is the effect on the system when such premises and schools are closed and most of the electricity generated goes into the system?
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This is not correct. South Australia all but runs on rooftop solar at lunchtime in spring. Grid demand dies and they export a lot more to Victoria than the gas generators are producing.
Reverse power flow has become a challenging problem for distributers because the systems were not designed to have distributed generation. But transformers do not know which way the power is flowing. Some will have reverse power flow protection to limit fault conditions but they still cary reverse power until the protection kicks in.
No coal generator produces at transmission level. All generators have step up transformers to take p[ower up to transmission level.
30
Stepdown trannies become stepup when the current flows the other way.
50
In theory, but you would have to ensure that it was all engineered and approved for this so that circuit breakers did not fire. Maybe there has been a recent mass upgrade of all domestic distribution to allow domestic solar over production to feed back to distribution levels? The question is whether this actually happens in practice. And whether the costs would be justified and who would pay.
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Upgrading the system so it can safely handle the amount of distributed generation is another reason the retail price margin to wholesale is increasing. It is very expensive to strengthen networks to handle high levels of distributed generation.
None of the upgrades are in advance of requirement unless it is a new estate that has been planned as a generator and load. Everywhere else is playing catch up. Distributers are concerned about the the inability of their systems to handle large amounts of reverse power flow.
Last year was the first time that scheduled demand in South Australia went to 0MW.
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2021/11/21nov-minimumdemand-southaustralia/
This became possible after the synchronous condensers were installed but depends on the link to Victoria as well.
40
The road into town is also the road outta town.
00
TdeF:
It is confined to the local area. The step down transformers have been modified so they won’t take back voltage.
As for excess generation the old method was to let the (area) voltage build up until the solar panels charger shut down (for about an hour) and then try restarting.
Theoretically the CUT OFF voltage was 250V but this wasn’t always the case as some panel suppliers would “tweak” the voltage to boost output. I used to live surrounded by houses with solar panels (both neighbours and the 3 houses opposite an others in the same street and cross streets) and I noticed this quite a few years ago. When my inverted/controller ‘gave up the ghost after 7 years) I install a Fronius which kept a history of peak voltages and found a time with 270V (confirmed with neighbour who had older record of 275V).
Shortly after that one of the houses across the street had to replace their system incl. panels.
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Graeme, my trade was steam driven electronics, valves and such, and transformers were all over circuit diagrams so I understand they are not polarised but I have never thought I could apply my knowledge to substation transformers.
Can I take The step down transformers have been modified so they won’t take back voltage, to the bank? It fits what I have been told.
Another issue is that inverters are inductive and where there has been a great uptake the retailer needs to fit phase correcting capacitor banks.
There is no free lunch.
10
the logic would probably go that the local solar reduces local demand on the grid thereby making more power available to other users. The interconnectors are a rough analogue perhaps. If Tassie supplies 400MW to VIC it doesnt flow to NSW with the current shortage , but it does support southern VIC and allow large VIC generators to supply the interconnectors.
30
Sure, except that most suburbs until Wu Flu were dormitory, which means there was no great need for domestic electricity in the area in which it was produced. This may have changed in some areas and states but for most of the life of this domestic solar panel business, the power generated locally did not reduce the grid demand.
However if the investment has been made and some systems are now able to harvest rooftop lunchtime solar, great. Otherwise it is a great waste of our electricity bills because the money for all this is continually being stolen from them. It is not even a tax but government ordered and monitored and enforced theft from everyone’s electricity bills, including the owners of solar panels.
The more they get paid, the more everyone’s electricity prices go up and the more they think they are making, but it is an illusion. The prices are going up because people who do nothing, contribute nothing are being paid.
30
you are looking for a blanket answer in a highly diverse environment, in the end its the nett effect that matters. Not sure what you are basing the statement about solar not reducing grid demand , there are a lot of moving parts in that. I’m not a great fan either way really. We installed solar a long time ago no with the objective of offsetting our own usage mainly in summer usage but we never submitted the FIT paperwork. Friends of ours have an oversize system that gets a 24c FIT which still has a couple of years to run, its been a great deal for them over time but he gets his nose out of joint if I say others including his pensioner mates are paying for it.
20
It ain’t necessarily so. There is plenty of generating capacity [on a well run grid] between the two daily peaks. Rooftop solar merely robs generators with hot boilers of a stable market so they have to blow steam or cool the boilers. Ignoring FIT even, rooftop solar costs, not save.
00
Still burning diesel in South Australia!
LOL.
50
I remember, but I am a dinosaur.
10
These days you can “identify” as whatever species or gender you please…
40
Go back 20 odd years when there were no solar panels (apart from rooftop water heaters… that were always on boost from electricity) or giant bird choppers….we had the cheapest, most reliable power in the world.
Tell a Gen Z or Millennial that and their head would explode!
110
Its odd that they sometimes seem to think that the world fell from space around 1995. They dont seem to think at all about how we got here. The “unreliable coal” meme is a classic. What do they thing powered Australia for the last 50+ years?
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Humans thrive in a warmer climate and our obvious improvement since the LIA or 1810 has been referred to by Dr Rosling’s experiment using 120,000 data points to prove his case.
Here’s the temperature graph from the co2 Coalition site to think about.
Then ask yourself this question…..”what’s so attractive about the LIA or the Dark ages cold period”?
https://co2coalition.org/facts/for-human-advancement-warmer-is-better-than-colder/
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Makes you wonder then why Europe had the enlightenment and Africa didnt. Guess it depend on what thriving means.
20
Tony’s graph needs to be on the front page of every newspaper in Australia.
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Graeme#4
Umm, that’s not one of mine. Joanne made that one up herself. (you see her name at bottom right of the image itself)
I use two image programs, the supplied Paint that comes with the Operating System, and my own Adobe Photoshop Elements 15, without fraction of doubt, the single best Image program I have ever used.
The image you see there is similar to what I do. Save the Aneroid image you want to highlight into the Paint program, save that to your drive, open the Adobe and then work on the image in that program.
However, the Paint program allows you to add text blocks and extras like arrows and circles etc. Then save that, work on the correct sizing in Adobe and there’s the image itself.
Umm, here’s one I prepared a little earlier, (oh nyuk nyuk nyuk) about basically the same thing.
Tony.
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Ok, thanks for the clarification Tony. It’s still a good graph as it clearly shows both wind and solar failing to significantly contribute when energy is required.
10
And I meant to add that I also use Adobe Photoshop Elements, along with Visio, for all my technical diagrams and maps. Elements is a very good program, but it does require a decent bit of computer horsepower to run properly.
10
Tony, do you have any idea whether the ‘roof top solar’ as shown actually contributes 100% to the national grid? Or do you think it is the total of all nameplate generation? Adelaide I can understand, but there is virtually no industry in Adelaide. It would be something else if domestic rooftop production was powering Whyalla or Port Kembla or Port Pirie.
It’s one thing to generate electricity on a roof and quite another to get it from dormitory suburbs or office at 240 volts back to factories through a high voltage grid. I doubt any of these networks/transformers/regulators/fuses were originally designed to work in reverse and this would have influenced all the design, to prevent a form of flashback. Surely using a purpose built stepdown transformer as a step up transformer is a big design change, especially with the voltages involved. And would there be losses in this process?
30
TdeF
Great question, so here, let me show you two graphs here, and for one of them, to actually ‘see the point’, it’s a lot better if you do the task yourself, and it’s not too difficult, but it allows me to highlight something that has drawn a few questions in recent years for me at my home site.
This is the Aneroid graph for rooftop solar power yesterday 28June. Now, here, with this one, Andrew has smoothed it out so that the upper black line total for all rooftop solar shows as one curve.
However, what is shown here is that smoothing, because it’s the AEMO which provides ALL the data for ALL power generation. With power plants, that’s an easy task, because you just indicate the five minute output of all of them. (those SCADA tables issued every five minutes for every plant on the grid) AEMO has absolutely no idea at all as to the fully 100% accuracy for rooftop solar, that they can provide for power plants, so they give a best case guess as to what that might be. Keep in mind, NONE of this rooftop solar leaves the area where it is generated, not going ‘back the other way’ through the Sub Stations, so all of it consumed by homes in the local area where it is generated. All rooftop solar is deemed behind the meter and so AEMO cannot know how much is being generated.
So, AEMO issues a ‘best case guesstimate’ for rooftop solar power every half hour across daylight hours when Rooftop solar is generating its power.
So, when Andrew at Aneroid makes his overall total power graphs, it shows the raw data from AEMO, and you get what is shown at the following graph.
Australian Energy Market graph for 28June 2022. (and now here’s where you get to do the simple task)
When the graph opens, you’ll see the different colours for all power generation indicated in the legend under the graph.
Now just to see it better, tick the box which says total, and the black line appears across the top of the graph.
See how the top of that load curve, the black line is all spiky. (the general nature of the questions I am asked, why that spikiness)
Okay now, untick that Total box, so you just have the colours.
Now, UNTICK every box ….. except the box for Rooftop solar.
When finished, all you should see is the yellow colour for rooftop solar.
Note how it is stepped, and as you hover your mouse across the graph, you’ll see that the total is ‘adjusted’ every half hour across the daylight hours.
That is the AEMO total for rooftop solar across the day.
Incidentally, the total Nameplate now for Rooftop solar is 17,000MW and the peak yesterday was 5540MW, so at maximum insolation on this day, rooftop solar was operating at a Capacity Factor of 33% ….. at its highest for the day, that single point in time, and the total generated power for the whole day (34GWH) gave rooftop solar a CF of 8.3%.
NOTHING goes back the other way at any sub station, so other than supply the direct area, nothing ‘operates’ the wider grid.
Tony.
40
To summarise
“AEMO has absolutely no idea at all as to the fully 100% accuracy for rooftop solar”
“not going ‘back the other way’ through the Sub Stations, so all of it consumed by homes in the local area where it is generated.”
“NOTHING goes back the other way at any sub station, so other than supply the direct area, nothing ‘operates’ the wider grid.”
Now that disagrees with
Ronin “Stepdown trannies become stepup when the current flows the other way.”
RickWill “South Australia pretty much runs on rooftop solar at lunchtime in spring. Their rooftop solar is supplying some of the power to Portland smelter.”
My point is much simpler, that most of ‘rooftop’ solar is unused and does not contribute the National total, that we are being deceived as to the value of ‘rooftop’ solar. And of course the idea that it is all consumed where it is generated, which is nonsense at lunchtime unless everyone is working from home and they have more than a laptop.
Rooftop solar is useless, far too little and in the wrong place and at the wrong time. And if it supplies the manufacturing as suggested (including aluminium smelting or lead smelting or steel making) and processing power for Australia, I would be very surprised.
Of course if we all have desktop jobs at home on a lap top and that is the entire of Australia, you have to wonder how we buy all those imported manufactured laptops? And electronics, aircraft, mobile phones, tractors,..
00
And in one point, the graph is deceitful as it shows rooftop solar as contributing as much to the National Grid as solar farms. That’s unlikely and possibly deceitful.
00
No one I know of has ever claimed to know. Our own Tony has covered this in times past.
00
Yes. RT solar can only. Be used in the local area,..and if my experience is any indicator, i suspect that the majority is never “ fed back” from its source property !
But, it is used, and does impact the grid by REDICING THE DEMAND from the grid.
This is verified by the mid day drop in demand experienced by the grid , and recorded by the AEMO data.
The RT solar data line shown on most graphics is just an “indication” of the “estimated” RT generation….
…..it should not be seen as “real data”, and is not used to compile the total demand/ generation figures.
10
“Brexit leader Nigel Farage says not only is Prince Charles has been spreading a “doomsday alarmist cult” he is also “stupid enough” to let a controversial politician into his private residence.”
Future Kings lack of judgement on full display.
100
That’s why The Queen is staying on the throne well past retirement age. She knows her son is an idiot.
120
Charles and Andrew were a waste of mothers milk.
60
At least the Queen didn’t waste her own.
30
Subsidies are a bit like temporary taxes. Put in place for a quick fix, but then they generally always continue. Payroll tax implemented during WW2 is still a thing. That £6 for each kilowatt-hour they don’t use at peak time in the UK, will probably still be there in 20 years. Every new nutbag electricity generation method can only exist with subsidies. Even solar, wind couldn’t exist in a REAL market without some form of subsidies either up front or hidden in the form of green certificates. Those subsidies are now coming from all levels of government to promote every wacky idea possible. Thanks to subsidisation or direct grants we now have pumped hydro, hydrogen, carbon soil credits, biochar, fuel cells, EV’s, grid batteries and goodness knows what else either being researched, promoted or built. If you look at any of those wacky new “technologies” and you drill down to the detail, you will find each requires a massive input of energy at some point to make them work. In probably nearly all cases those electrons are still provided by good old dense hydrocarbon based liquid/solid fuels like coal , gas and oil. They make them “work” and so do the subsidies. The question is, how long can be keep propping up these technologies?
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Brilliant – The Future of Australian Power at Work
SA company fined over power rules breach
The operator of South Australia’s Tesla big battery has been fined $900,000 after a software glitch left it unable to help stabilise the grid.
Hornsdale Power Reserve (HPR) was ordered on Tuesday to pay the penalty after being taken to the Federal Court by the Australian Energy Regulator.
The court heard HPR had breached national electricity rules between July and November 2019 after it made offers to the Australian Energy Market Operator and was paid to provide market ancillary services which it could not provide.
The contingency frequency control ancillary services are required to help keep the lights on following a power system disturbance.
AEMO brought the conduct to the regulator’s attention following a power system disruption at Kogan Creek Power Station in Queensland in October 2019.
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Is it even capable of doing what it’s claimed to do?
Of course, it’s only true purpose is to harvest subsidies for the Elites, like all “green” energy projects.
In the case of Big Batteries, their primary purpose is electricity price arbitrage (buy cheap, sell expensive).
Electricity production is not the purpose of solar or wind projects or their associated Big Batteries. The business model is subsidy harvesting. If the purpose was electricity production you would use coal, gas, nuclear or proper hydro.
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Yes, another fail to chalk up with the many others, just brilliant.!
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If you live in England, get yourself a 6hp watercooled Lister diesel, belt drive a 5kw alternator and have 3.5kw of power and free hotwater to heat the house and have a hot shower, burn used chip cooker oil, even cheaper.
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Ronin what would your 6 hp diesel + 3.5 kw system cost and how practical would it be?
And I wonder how much used chip oil is available in the UK or anywhere for that matter?
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Probably a couple of grand and some workshop ability, plenty of chippies in Pomgolia, but maybe the authorities have banned the taking of used oil, who knows.
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One of the roadhouses on the Nullarbor planned to use old cooking oil to keep the diesel in their standalone EV charger running.
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Used cooking oil must be the most valuable resource on earth: EVERYONE uses it to have green credentials.
See a fuel tanker drive past a fish shop and you get some idea of the mismatch.
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Perhaps not.
Why thousands of Britain’s ‘fish and chip’ shops could close within a year
https://www.9news.com.au/world/why-thousands-of-britains-fish-and-chip-shops-could-close-within-a-year/c958d035-1342-4314-8bf4-be85cad31b5a
The United Kingdom’s fish-and-chip shops are under severe strain as the prices of key ingredients — including cod and cooking oil — soar as a result of the Russian assault on Ukraine.
As many as a third of the country’s roughly 10,000 fish-and-chip restaurants could close in the next nine months, said Andrew Crook, president of the National Federation of Fish Friers. The crisis is the worst he’s seen, he told CNN Business.
But British fish and chip shops, which traditionally operate under very narrow margins, are feeling a particular squeeze because of the industry’s reliance on Russian imports.
Up to 40 per cent of the industry’s cod and haddock come from Russian waters, and about half of its sunflower oil is imported from Ukraine, Crook said.
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The best fish and chips in Britain are cooked in beef dripping! We had one near where we lived in North Yorkshire. No need for imported cooking oil.
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One fish and chippery, that is.
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Annie, as red meat becomes expensive I’m buying more [fresh] fish. My attempts at batter are terrible. Any suggestions?
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Sorry Hanrahan, I never make it myself. We have fish and chips only occasionally although we both love it, so leave others to make the dish and we have it for a treat. It usually features once per holiday but when we lived in North Yorkshire it was tempting to have it more frequently as it was cooked in beef dripping; much tastier than oil!
We eat fish regularly but not battered.
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no need for china to declare war on the west,
it’s destroying itself.
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It is fascinating me that the CCP apparently believe that they can attempt to bully other nations into submission but still maintain a good trading relationship with them long term.
During the early 1400s China sent fleets of ships to explore the world and discover sources of goods that could benefit the people of China, they were voyages of discovery, not military threats preparing for invasions. The final decision was that China would be best served by trading.
The UN Lima Protocol of 1975 with developed nations agreeing to the gradual transfer of manufacturing industry and expertise to developing nations has greatly benefited China with the economy growing to become a rival for the United States of America. But now after the bullying and related threats by the CCP, as DLK points out, effectively China is destroying itself and including spending enormous amounts of money on military assets and personnel instead of using the money for improving the lives of the people of China.
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Don’t you think that DLK meant that the west is destroying itself?
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Have you ever been to China and seen all the pollution,I don’t know how they breathe.
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no, i meant exactly what dennis has expounded.
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poorly written then
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They are certainly destroying the reliability of their electricity supply.
And without strong reliable electricity supply, progress is halted, and in many cases the countries are already going backwards.. (as prescribed by the WEF, UN etc)
Kow-towing to fake CO2 AGW memes, virtue-seeking to allow unimpeded immigration etc etc etc etc
Not only that, but the degrading of society with other leftist agendas is bound to lower the living standard of a lot of people.
So yes, the west is destroying itself, by all too often choosing leftism over a more rational and moral approach to society.
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Yes nothing like making threats and then coming at you with a smiley face as if everything is normal.
I had something similar happen at the personal level recently, and the bloke got all offended and played the victim when I told him to fork off. Reminded me of woe is us proclamations from the CCP, on how unfair the world is in its reaction to Chinas so very reasonable demands and sanctions.
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I think Dennis is on the right track. Until
covidTrump the West sorta tolerated China’s cheating in the mistaken belief that as China developed they would become a responsible world citizen as Japan has done. Stinkin’ thinkin’. The US tolerated Japan stealing IP too but they became an ally.40
I keep telling people ‘learn Cantonese’, join the winning side.. We are about to learn that West is a hollow jug and the rest of the world has quite a different view. We dragged the world through the industrial revolution to here and now its time to hand the baton over, we are at the declining peak of an empire, as Rome fell.
Embrace China and guide their hand, resistance will be futile.
It was pathetically laughable to hear some Defence wonk carrying on about how we need to spend more taxpayer’s money to stop China, he just sounded like a bureaucrat with absolutely no idea of the world trying to get more money for his Department.
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apparently it is china that is destroying itself.
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Remember when Australia had a strong manufacturing industry sector of the economy, before Whitlam Labor signed the UN Lima Protocol in 1975 agreeing to the gradual transfer of manufacturing industry to developing nations, like China?
And the world’s largest interconnected electricity grid was created to supply those major consumers of electricity resulting in reliable supply for all consumers and at affordable cost and pricing from coal fired power stations operating all day every day with adjustments to generating units between baseload and peak demand, and supplementary from the relatively small number of hydro power stations?
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Nowadays, we can just barely keep the grid up even with next to no manufacturing industry, oil refineries have gone from 8 to 2, steel works nearly all gone, no car makers anymore, etc.
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I believe the grid was created solely to allow the public servants of Canberra to control another thing they did not control, literally power. Electricity for most of our history was a state based problem and Victoria used its brown coal to great effect, with plenty of cheap reliable brown coal power. The biggest problem were the inevitable union strikes, the usual extortion of the 1950s and onwards as on the waterfront and at the airports whenever there were holidays. And the reason power was local was not just the cost of distribution but the fact that it was mineral based and minerals are the exclusive property of the State, not Canberra.
Enter wind and solar, which allows Canberra to take over electricity and set up a completely unnecessary National Grid administered by Canberra and subject to the demands of a cosseted Green group who have no connection at all to industry, farming, manufacture. They even have their own windmill farm paid for by everyone one else but which produces million in subsidized hard cash profits for the city of Canberra. Without raising a cent in tax, so its their money. A little embarrassing but who is complaining? The last time I saw this reported they had $35 Million in cash for nothing.
So all the Clean Air and Clean Energy and AEMO is about control not about what is good for anyone else. Which is why it is all an unholy mess, run from Canberra while Victoria and South Australia go about blowing up perfectly good cheap and eternal and reliable power stations.
We are being robbed. But that’s no news. And it’s not about the worth of a National Grid. We never needed one and we were better off without it.
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I just find it incredible all the alphabet quangos associated with the grid, you got AEMO,NEM, and dozens of others.
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Green Canberra jobs. For doing something which was never needed before. Canberra is metastasizing. And saving us all from 0.04% Carbon Dioxide pollution, which is the dirtiest imaginable air.
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The original power supplies in Australia were typically run by local councils. Brisbane City Council built the very impressive Bulimba power stations. The beautiful brick building of Builimba B is probably still being used as a recycling centre. Local Councils gradually handed over assets to State Governments as more efficient, larger scale generators were developed.
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-27.4398833,153.1092833,3a,15y,91.78h,90.31t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOAcXStAMK4Kz3xR7b4zFiMPmrRxP-Wres39dvG!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOAcXStAMK4Kz3xR7b4zFiMPmrRxP-Wres39dvG%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi0-ya254.8493-ro-0-fo100!7i8192!8i4096
The State power monopolies were horribly inefficient. Joh B P did a good job on improving SEAQ but there were still opportunities. The national grid simply reflected the trade in electricity that was already occurring across State borders. Wheeling charges for power in NSW coming up from Victoria lignite production were highway robbery. From the time Keating took hold of the power industry in 1990, there was a steady decline in electricity price in Australia. Howard introduced the RET and Rudd’s world saving crusade pushed the RET to levels where it started to impact on the whole system. Abbott was the only sensible voice since Keating. Keating was probably one of the best LNP members in Australia’s history for improving business efficiency.
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I doubt any politician understands the RET. It is not only illegal in law, it is not about reducing electricity costs between states.
The RET is about penalizing ‘non approved’ sources of power by doubling your electricity bills to hand as much cash again to providers of ‘renewable’ energy. For nothing at all. This currently runs at about $6Billion a year in stolen public cash but not as taxation.
The Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2001 deliberately does not use the words Carbon or Taxation even once but it is the world’s biggest carbon tax and illegal because it is not a tax, just mandated theft where you pay double for carbon dioxide associated energy. Which is why even the owners are forced to close down coal based power.
If it was challenged in the High Court, the RET would be deemed illegal. It was superficially well intentioned but in fact a Green subterfuge to fund ‘renewables’ by mandated payments for invisible ‘certificates’ in a way which is not even shown in the National budget.
We have enough windmills and solar panels. This theft should stop.
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“Remember when The West could afford electricity 24 hours a day? ”
Ah, the good old days.
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The good ole days indeed. I worked for Northern Electricity Authority, now absorbed, and keeping the towers standing and sufficient spinning reserve was our reason to be there.
Note: “Spinning reserve” meant some excess capacity.
00
Power costs are just part of a bigger problem manifesting now (as predicted 😎), namely the number of people, regardless of income, living payday to payday.
No significant savings, wasting money on non-essentials like $1200 dumbphones, $50k fuel guzzling 4WDs that only go to the shops etc. They have NO idea of the big bad world and its realities and therefore haven’t planned for the very events we are now experiencing and about to and indeed don’t even want to know. Reap what you sow.
I walked past a trio of people recently waving signs roadside demanding pay rises as they couldn’t afford to live on their income. I stopped and asked one of them what their income/debt ratio was. Blank look reply. Ditto for the others.
Translation – manage your money, live within your means and don’t expect the taxpayer to fund your debt driven lifestyle because you can’t be bothered to.
My quarterly electric bill is around $350 (no solar, wind or gas connections), my neighbour’s about $1200. I use the heatpump in winter for 10 hours a day and the AC in summer as needed. House lights are 10W high efficiency LEDs, I NEVER use the oven but use my convection microwave or gas bbq for cooking. Way cheaper and just as good. Showers are 10 mins max not most peoples 30+ minutes. No lights left on needlessly. 65″ LCD tv thrown in too.
People need to get their priorities right and when they do they’ll find their lives change for the better. eg like being able to afford power…
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Good post, amazing the number of people who get disconnected for no payment, bet they have money for smokes, pokies, takeaway food, etc etc.
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Don’t be a snob Ronin. A pensioner paying rent would have to be frugal today.
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Just perusing the news post my post, there a few items to consolidate reality:
Energy Crisis: EU Headed For Dark Ages, ‘Poverty For Generations’
“People will be left with less jobs, less opportunities and will barely make ends meet from one month to another,” Terhes went on to say, adding that those within the bloc were already feeling the costs of the EU’s ‘utopian dreams’.
https://www.technocracy.news/energy-crisis-eu-headed-for-dark-ages-poverty-for-generations/
Fuel shipping costs soar
The cost of shipping has added another variable to the complicated global inflation and energy crisis. According to the Baltic Exchange data as reported by Bloomberg, hauling rates have reached a high not seen since April 2020.
The TC-5 passage commonly used to transport fuel from the Middle East to Japan cost around $61 per day in February. That same voyage costs an alarming $50,000 per day. Shipping costs from the US to Brazil on route TC-18 spiked from $3,800 per day in February to a high of $37,000 daily. The world is reliant on these fuels, and demand is expected to rise 6% this year alone.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/world-trade/fuel-shipping-costs-soar/
Freight jumps from $61 to $50,000!!
Guess what that will do to business profitability and viability and of course jobs. You don’t have to guess.
Guess what your future looks like when you have no savings and can’t manage your money.
This is a massive wakeup call to the masses.
Get your priorities sorted right now!!
I’ve said it all before – ditch that 4WD you don’t need, pay off and cancel those credit cards, build your savings, manage your affairs better. This is going to get ugly bigtime shortly.
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What you are beginning to see is the unsustainability of W&S. It takes real energy to manufacture, transport and erect these energy extractors. Their current cost reflects the price of real energy before the barriers to extraction went up in the west The inflation now occurring gives a window to a world trying to make-do on energy coming from W&S.
50
I challenge the 30+ minute shower. I do not know anyone who could spend that amount of time in a shower. What a tedious way to spend 2 years of your allotted 80 year life!
I often shower in quarter breaks in AFL football broadcast. That includes the undressing and dressing. The allotted time is 6 minutes. I understand navy showers should have water running for less than 2 minutes.
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Pass me that mid-30s MILF & I’ll show you a 30inute shower…
Another set of good ol’ days that have gone.
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Why are you showering between quarters when you’re not even playing?
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I do, and in fact know a few people who shower until the water runs cold. Inconsiderate buzzards.
It’s not uncommon.
Psychologists will say it’s due to a lack of love (warmth) in their lives.
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Rickwill you don’t have teenagers then , it’s more a case of how can I limit them to only 30 minutes and we are on tank water .
00
All from the rise of the Keynesians who said things that Govts want to hear- Velocity of money is the important thing, so keep it in circulation by discouraging savings and expanding credit & hire-purchase. Spend your wages before you get them, just spend spend spend! Let the reserve bank print the money to cover it all.
Conversely, the Austrian School economists were a Govts worse nightmare- stop inflation dead, deflation is good, shrink Govt spending and let the free market expand.
One day it will swing the other way, soon after we see politicians swinging from lamposts..
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Keynesian economics is short term. It works well while the population is growing and there is an ever increasing pool of women who could join the workforce because of the labour saving devices their wages let them buy. The Pill was just one of many head winds, sub replacement level birth rates and resource exhaustion the biggies.
Companies/countries/empires expand exponentially until, like lemmings they cant. We don’t have the instinct to jump off a cliff*.
* No correspondence please on whether lemming DO actually jump of cliffs. I have NFI.
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What will your new power bill be ? You will see a rise from the $350.
It has gone up quite a bit. My current supplier went up 4 times from its old off peak rate. Looking for a better deal which I think there is. I’ve seen more modest rises.
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Family-run Aussie supermarket fears it could go bust by Christmas as a single bill soars by more than 500 per cent: ‘How are we going to survive?’
. Supermarket run by local family for 26 years facing going bust over rising bills
. Andersons have owned Mapleton IGA and petrol station for nearly three decades
. Electricity company AGL informed them cost would be rising up to 500 per cent
. Monthly power bill would increase from $5,000 to $25,000 per month
. Owner Kel Anderson says they cannot survive paying $200k extra every year
The Andersons, from Mapleton near Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, have owned the town’s IGA and petrol station for 26 years but now face closing after receiving a shocking letter from power supplier AGL.
They were told their regular monthly bill, around $5,000 a month, would be increasing to an astonishing $25,000 – $218,000 more than they had been paying for over 12 months.
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That’s tragic, but the basis of the increase seems to be that they were paying 6.5c/kWh and it’s going up to 25.5c/kWh. I wonder how they were paying such a low rate in the first place unless they signed up on a 20 year contract to get that price when it was still available?
And you know what? Not a single politician or Leftist will care less about the destruction of yet another business by electricity prices.
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6.5 c/kw is very low. I was paying 11 off peak, and that was really cheap while another i know was at 21. The best new off peak I have seen is about 26.
This business must be sucking the juice and yes they were paying very cheap. A dairy farmer here – they use a fair bit of electricity – uses $5k per quarter like the shop and he’s been paying 21 c off peak, and it has now gone to 26.
Whatever it is terrible. First time in my life I’ve paid close attention to electricity bills.
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DM Yes I had noticed that and was interested to see who clicked link and read Article
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Extraordinary.
30
At 7pm tonight 90% fossil fuel keeping NSW from going into blackouts. Coal =77%…Gas 13%
Meanwhile QLD was 92% fossil fuel ….Coal = 72%…….Gas=20%
S.A. Gas =78% ….with Vic selling them 125MW of electricity….
Isnt renewables so reassuring ?????? NOT !
30
I’ve been watching NSW generation for a couple of years. They almost never meet their own demand but can still wind back coal a couple of gW off peak. Mysteriously, theirs is almost always the highest wholesale price.
Smacks of Enron.
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7:35 pm no wind. Peak hour, Australia is running on fossil fuels right now. How are they going to reduce that to zero ? It is completely absurd.
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Simple just build more wind farms , there is no problem you can’t fix if you throw enough money at it . Green economics 101 .
00
And underlying all this is the idea that CO2 is the problem, or we in Victoria would still have our brown coal power stations destoyed or scheduled to be destroyed by a combination of the RET and the manic obsessions of Dictator Dan Andrews. No gas, no wood and certainly no coal or petrol, Daniel Andrews is driving all manufacturing out of Victoria. It’s the fashion of communist agents all over Western Democracies, driving the West out of manufacturing. It’s just that I am getting past having to learn Chinese.
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How Energy Cartels Will Smash The Housing Market!
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This guy is self contradictory. He says wind/solar is not to blame for power shortages, it is the high cost of fossil fuels. Really!
Worth listening to none the less. I now have a different, if socialist, view of the gas industry.
Reading what I wrote, it is not socialist to want your resources to benefit your own citizens.
Watch and make up your own mind.
10
Another thought: A bit more “sovereign risk” may be a good thing. Currently we are a soft touch, open to our masters Britain and USA but China comes in through the same door.
00
Assuming increasing atmospheric CO2 is causing the planet to warm:
Atmospheric CO2 levels in 1850 (beginning of the Industrial Revolution): ~280ppm (parts per million atmospheric content) (Vostok Ice Core).
Atmospheric CO2 level in 2021: ~410ppm. (Mauna Loa).
410ppm minus 280ppm = 130ppm ÷ 171 years (2021 minus 1850) = 0.76ppm of which man is responsible for ~3% = ~0.02ppm.
That’s every human on the planet and every industrial process adding ~0.02ppm CO2 to the atmosphere per year on average.
At that rate mankind’s CO2 contribution would take ~25,000 years to double which, the IPCC states, would cause around 2°C of temperature rise. That’s ~0.0001°C increase per year for ~25,000 years.
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Good, but really that’s not their argument which is that our tiny annual 0.83% (6GT out of the natural 720GT) is cumulative because everything else in a magical balance, so our industrial CO2 piles up in the atmosphere unlike other CO2. Neat eh? It’s a new concept in equilibrium invented by the Greens which says that the planet is on a knife’s edge and cannot be disturbed, that the oceans (which already contain 37,400GT) cannot absorb even a tiny extra (6GT) more CO2, so they don’t. If you think that this is prima facie preposterous, it is.
The supporting argument is that CO2 is at record levels and therefore because of human activity is demonstrated by the same Vostok Ice cores, arguing that CO2 has suddenly risen since the end of the little ice age/industrialization after 1870. This again ignores that fact that near instantanous measurements in the last 100 years have been just welded onto long term ice core proxy averages, which is really bad science. Rather it does demonstrate the ice core data has very poor time resolution and rapid changes in CO2 are simply not visible. You cannot use a technique which can measure CO2 over millions of years and expect the same time resolution as an instantaneous measurement.
So based on an entirely novel idea of gaseous equilibrium and very poor science, the CO2 levels are explained by fossil fuel. Odd then that the C14 shows that under 4% of the CO2 is man made and that it has a half life around 5 years before being absorbed.
But science is not politics. And in UN/EU/IPCC/NOAA politics it is all about stopping evil Carbon Dioxide, even if it means we cannot get affordable and reliable energy. We in Australia are apparently attempting to save the entire planet by self flagellation, as our new Prime Minister is telling G7 right now, Australia will power the world and feed the world. Our very own freshly minted world leader is making ridiculous promises we are supposed to keep when we cannot keep the lights on at home.
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This is just the start of shortages and economic sabotage. The Left are talking about the need to ration energy, as shortages start to happen. Production stoppage because energy is too expensive or not available.
The Green Scam Legislation is trying, to force all heating, manufacturing, transportation, and so on which are now powered by natural gas, gasoline, and diesel to be converted to electricity. That scam scheme will increase the electrical power demand and the need for natural gas power plants by a factor of three.
A Cambridge University has written a report which at least, quantifies some of the obvious, impossible to solve problems, to get to Zero Emissions using the green scams.
http://www.ukfires.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Absolute-Zero-online.pdf
“The UK electrical grid power supply output would be required to INCREASE by a factor of THREE (with zero emissions) as all heating, manufacturing, and transportation, is going to be powered from electricity”
Cement cannot be made with zero emissions and there is no solution. Same for how to power ships or airplanes. There is no solution as to how to construct buildings or what is going to replace plastics.
There is no solution for how to mine with zero emissions or how to smelt steel. The solution is more recycling.
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