Renewable Crash Test Dummy: Friday edition
For energy-nerds following the Australian experiment, today is a big day. On the up-side, three coal turbines have rebooted adding another 1200MW to the grid. On the down-side, the wind has slowed and 3000MW has disappeared. On the hope-side, another 4 coal turbines may possibly get back in gear by Sunday, and you never know, the wind might pick up. Though it doesn’t look good.
Wind generation. June 16, 2022, Australian NEM. | Anero.id
It doesn’t matter how many wind farms we build when one High Pressure cell arrives to sit on them all
And here is the cell that stops a million dishwashers.
One high cell to stop them all | BOM
This is where all 76 Australia NEM grid wind farms are which could, in theory be generating as much as 9.8GW but are turning out 10% of that now.
Map of Wind generation Australia
Ninety percent of Australians are being asked to be careful with their electricity today while we wait for the wind to start blowing again or the weather to warm up. And millions of dollars is being burned in electricity bills (assuming people have electricity) because we shut down too many brown coal plants and didn’t maintain any of the coal fleet as if our quality of life depended on it.
The AEMO has issued LOR3 (highest risk lack of reserve) announcements for SA, Victoria, and New South Wales for today. These are updated often and it is hard to keep up. LOR3’s are a kind of “Blackout watch”. Potential shortfalls of megawatts 18 hours in advance of the 6pm evening crunch time did look ominous: In Victoria the maximum forecast load that may be interrupted was 1400MW from 5pm to 1am. In South Australia it’s 273MW from 5pm to 9pm. In New South Wales the maximum “interruptible” load is a whopping 3007MW between 5pm to 2.30am. That’s potentially one third of the total demand in New South Wales. All of these may be resolved just in time, but somebody is sweating tonight sorting this out.
These notices linked above were 98212 (Vic), 98211 (SA), 98200 (NSW) – but which have been updated. Just for the tenor of what could theoretically go wrong, note the size and multiple problem times for one NSW update (copied below). I suspect the updated LOR3 notices 98223, 98225 and 98226 are still active. But curiously the Administered price period in NSW has ended. So the spot market is back in NSW?
That story being carried here.
https://www.daily mail.co.uk/news/article-10919303/Australias-energy-crisis-worsens-Anthony-Albanese-hold-emergency-meeting-Thursday.html
As far as I understand it your new PM has promised to cut emissions even further so presumably your coal plants are for the chop
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Too true. Albo has drunk the cool aid and refuses to see what has happened overseas when too much wind enters the system. Bowen talks of batteries but we are in a few days wind drought and I wonder how many batteries we would need to stop disaster. Every hospital and every food storage system will need the big diesels to keep going. The bastards are mad.
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It’s Kool-Aid https://www.koolaid.com/ The drink that Jim Jones laced with cyanide to kill his followers.
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KoolAid has become the generic term for powered drinks, much like using “Jell-O” generically, rather than “gelatin dessert”.
The truth is the powder was the grape variety of another drink brand, Flavor Aid, made by Jel-Sert.
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I’m not sure where this came up –
“Life won’t be easy under Albanese”
And it even might have used his alternative title
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I wonder why it is that amid all the vilification here of “The Left”, Labor, The Greens and now the “Teals” no-one ever seems to comment that it was not “The Left”, Labor, The Greens and now the “Teals” that signed Australia to the Paris Agreement but Tony Abbott in 2015. He, not The Left or the Greens or Labor, signed onto reduce emissions to 26-28% of 2005 levels by 2030.
https://www.examiner.com.au/story/4981007/climate-change-is-real-frydenberg-reminds-abbott-he-signed-paris-deal/?cs=9397
In 2016 it was Turnbull not The Left or the Greens or Labor that ratified the Agreement
https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-ratifies-paris-agreement-on-climate-change/2882539c-bde8-4d0c-9bb7-51f02f2d0ed5
Certainly Abbott back-flipped in 2018 and stated Australia should withdraw from the Agreement but in March 2019 back-flipped again and said Australia should stay as did Morrison in 2018,
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/3035294/emissions-obsession-former-pm-tony-abbott-urges-australia-to-pull-out-of-paris-agreement
https://www.afr.com/politics/abbott-backflips-on-climate-change-again-20190308-h1c52f
It never ceases to amaze how commenters here can ignore facts that the LNP, no other Party, is responsible for the current energy turmoil. Why didn’t Abbott or Turnbull build coal fired power stations? They could have done. Morrison did indicate he might but as usual with Morrison nothing happened.
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Its almost as if Labor has never been in power and these problems just pop up over a couple of years. You remind me of the anti gunners in the States ranting about how the Republicans “do nothing” and ignore that Obama and Clinton were is for 16 years collectively and “did nothing”.
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Ian, we haven’t forgotten that Tony Abbott won 90 seats on a promise to Axe The Tax, then was sabotaged by Clive Palmer and Al Gore, then Turnbull and Morrison.
The current electrical farce is absolutely the Liberals creation, but when Labor promises to take all the Stupid and double it, we don’t forget that either.
Does that make you feel better?
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Thanks Jo. Saved me the trouble.
How is it that so few people noticed.
And it wasn’t just the RET that the Palmer United Party “protected” on behalf of Al Gore. They protected the Rudd/Gillard.Rudd government’s mad spending program too.
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“Does that make you feel better?”
Not really. You very carefully avoid answering several questions. Why did Abbott agree to sign? You don’t provide an answer. Yes . PUP did say it would vote against repealing the tax in the Senate after initially saying it wouldn’t but that does not address the question of why Abbott signed Australia on for the Paris Agreement in 2015.
At he time He said “There’s a definite commitment to 26% but we believe under the policies that we’ve got, with the circumstances that we think will apply, that we can go up to 28%.” That’s a pretty definitive statement.
Later he claimed he was misinformed by bureaucrats. He was the Prime Minister for God’s sake the buck stops with him not with some bureaucrat.
How did Turnbull undermine Abbott. He backed Abbott’s signing of the Agreement by ratifying it.. That is hardly undermining? Or do you disagree?
When did Morrison undermine Abbott? In the 2015 spill he voted for Abbott. How is that undermining him?
I mentioned that Abbott back-flipped in 2018 and then again in 2019, No answer from you on why he changed his mind in 2019. As yet he still has not repudiated his 2019 statement.
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With so much hatred… you still kept voting Liberal. Wow !
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And yes, the very leftist bureaucrats in the public service lied, and misinformed, and undermined Tony Abbott from day one.
“As yet he still has not repudiated his 2019 statement.”
Comprehension is really very low on your list of capabilities, isn’t it Ian.
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b.nice. You write
“Comprehension is really very low on your list of capabilities, isn’t it Ian”
And naivity is really very high on your limited list of capabilities isn’t b.nice.
Yes Abbott made the statement you put in your comment but if you think that was the real reason you are really very easily fooled.
He made it on March 9 in the vain hope of winning over the voters of Warringah who wanted the emissions reduction, so he would increase his chance of beating Zali Steggall in the election to be held on May 18.
Keep trying b.nice but it’s a bit saddening to see just how easily you are duped
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Poor IAn,
You can’t even get basic comprehension right.
New energy minister, less idiotic “emissions obsessions.”
Try again, little man.
Do you agree with Tony Abbott, that we should have dropped the RET and built new coal fired power stations.?
Answer the question, and stop your petty yabbering.. !!
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Did you note that TA was still calling for more coal fired power, even in 2019, when you say he was trying to win votes from the moronically woke anti-emission child-minds in Warringah?
You really need to get you mind thinking straight, little man. So much cognitive mal-function.
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Only someone incredibly naive and with near zero comprehension would think Tony Abbott suggesting we needed more coal fire power stations was trying to win votes from the Warringah woke.
But that is Ian for you: gullible, naive, and very low in understanding and comprehension.
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b.nice you write.
“Do you agree with Tony Abbott, that we should have dropped the RET and built new coal fired power stations.?”
Of course I don’t you ridiculous old has been but I have no objection to gas fired power stations as I live in WA where gas is relatively cheap.
It must be so hard for you to realise you have been left struggling to remain relevant in a society that has left you far behind in its wake. And neither did the voters of Warringah agree with Abbott when they dispatched him to a well deserved political oblivion. And in the last election showed their belief in Steggall in a 6% increase in her vote.
Why keep on struggling b.nice? Surely it’s time to call it a day and accept that Australia has moved on without you
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“Of course I don’t”
So you have no rational though process and want to use expensive gas
OK.. so you have outed yourself as a complete fool, basing your moronic opinion of some stupid anti-CO2 agenda instead of looking at the facts and reality.
.. Well done.
Woke Warringah.. just your type neighbourhood.
We are talking about the eastern states, not WA.. Stay on topic, nong (yes WA has plenty of Gas and Coal to cover their supply.. for now)
Australia hasn’t moved anywhere except backwards, industries closing, costs increasing rapidly.
That is what closing cheap reliable coal-fired power supplies will always do.
That is what clueless clowns like you want for Australia, degeneration in every facet of society… so you can maybe feel more like you belong.
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People of China outbid the woke idiocy of Warringah. (you will never see a wind turbine in that elitist slum.)
China knows where reality lies, and are building coal fired power stations by the dozen, as are many other countries that are struggling to get cheap reliable electricity.
Steggall is one of the contributors to the continued destruction of the grid… yet another clueless climate clown, contributing nothing by degradation, totally divorced from reality….
Just your type.
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GAS you say, flapping your arms wildly ..
Denied access by the Government of Victoria below Gippsland is a gas field larger than the Bass Strait oil and gas field that started production during the 1960s.
Below Coober Pedy SA not too far away from the Moomba Gas Field is another enormous reserve with access denied by the SA State Government.
The Narrabri Gas Field NSW remains unproductive because of hold ups based on court appeals against development approval, and that gas is for domestic use, no export.
Wake up, and try to see the real problem… the idiocy of the anti-CO2 agenda that you support.
MORE COAL FIRED POWER IS NEEDED.. just like Tony Abbott says.
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“Why keep on struggling b.nice? “
Why keep on vapidly flapping your fingers ?
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“Australia has moved on without you”
When I take one step forward.. and the Teals and Greens and Ian-types take 5 steps backwards….
… it is not me that is being left behind !
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The Liberals ARE “of the Left”. The vilification “of the Left” (including the Liberals) is absolutely justified. Thoroughly deserved.
You could argue (hope) that with the removal of the Teals (the green cancer of the party) that they might return to the Centre-Right (and renounce their globalist pandering), but there is no evidence for this yet. The ‘Trust Deficit’ is huge, and understandably so. They might never recover.
Turnbull IS a Teal and always was. Why did he not build Coal-fired Power Stations? (Apart from the obvious?) For much the same reason he thought it was just a swell idea to pay the French to convert nuke boats into diesels…he’s a moron. And worse, a moron with a chequebook and a colour money printer.
But fear not. We’ve just installed a PM and a Minister for Greenouts that have stood up to yell, “Hold my beer…!!!”
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I agree with you Ian.
All of our current crop of climate-crazies are to blame and none of them are numerate enough to work out that it cannot work. Feelings have more influence than engineering realities.
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Here’s an article that should be read by all commentators & should be compulsory reading for all politicians, climate change councils etc.
My name is Terence Cardwell. I spent 25 years in the Electricity Commission of NSW working, commissioning and operating the various power units. My last was the 4 X 350 MW Munmorah Power Stations near Newcastle.
Terence says this about Coal fired power plants:
· First coal fired power stations do NOT send 60 to 70% of the energy up the chimney. The boilers of modern power station are 96% efficient and the exhaust heat is captured by the economisers and reheaters that heat the air and water before entering the boilers.
· The very slight amount exiting the stack is moist as in condensation and CO2. There is virtually no fly ash because this is removed by the precipitators or bagging plant that are 99.98% efficient. The 4% lost is heat through boiler wall convection.
· Coal-fired Power Stations are highly efficient with very little heat loss and can generate a massive amount of energy for our needs. They can generate power at efficiency of less than 10,000 b.t.u. per kilowatt and cost-wise that is very low.
· The percentage cost of mining and freight is very low. The total cost of fuel is 8% of total generation cost and does NOT constitute a major production cost.
As for being laughed out of the country, China is building multitudes of coal-fired power stations because they are the most efficient for bulk power generation.
We have, like, the USA , coal-fired power stations because we HAVE the raw materials and are VERY fortunate to have them. Believe me no one is laughing at Australia – exactly the reverse, they are very envious of our raw materials and independence. The major percentage of power in Europe and U.K. is nuclear because they don’t have the coal supply for the future.
Yes it would be very nice to have clean, quiet, cheap energy in bulk supply. Everyone agrees that it would be ideal. You don’t have to be a genius to work that out. But there is only one problem—It doesn’t exist
Yes – there are wind and solar generators being built all over the world but they only add a small amount to the overall power demand.
The maximum size wind generator is 3 Megawatts, which can rarely be attained on a continuous basis because it requires substantial forces of wind. And for the same reason only generate when there is sufficient wind to drive them. This of course depends where they are located but usually they only run for 45% – 65% of the time, mostly well below maximum capacity. They cannot be relied on for a ‘base load ‘because they are too variable. And they certainly could not be used for load control.
The peak load demand for electricity in Australia is approximately 50,000 Megawatts and only small part of this comes from the Snowy Hydro Electric System (the ultimate power Generation) because it is only available when water is there from snow melt or rain. And yes, they can pump it back but it costs to do that. (Long Story).
Tasmania is very fortunate in that they have mostly hydro-electric generation because of their high amounts of snow and rainfall. They also have wind generators (located in the roaring forties) but that is only a small amount of total power generated.
Based on an average generating output of 1.5 megawatts (of unreliable power) you would require over 33,300 wind generators.
As for solar power generation much research has been done over the decades and there are two types.
Solar thermal generation and Solar Electric generation but in each case they cannot generate large amounts of electricity.
Any clean, cheap energy is obviously welcomed but they would NEVER have the capability of replacing Thermal Power Generation. So get your heads out of the clouds, do some basic mathematics and look at the facts, – not going off with the fairies (or some would say the extreme greenies).
We are all greenies in one form or another and care very much about our planet. The difference is most of us are realistic. Not in some idyllic utopia where everything can be made perfect by standing around holding a banner and being a general pain in the backside.
Here are some facts that will show how ridiculous this financial madness is that the government is following. Do the simple maths and see for yourselves.
According to the ‘believers’ the CO2 in air has risen from .034% to .038% in air over the last 50 years.
To put the percentage of Carbon Dioxide in air in a clearer perspective;
If you had a room 3.7 x 3.7 x 2.1 metres the area carbon dioxide would occupy in that room would be .25 x .25 x .17m or the size of a large packet of cereal.
Australia emits 1% of the world’s total carbon Dioxide and the government wants to reduce this by 20% or reduce emissions by 0.2 % of the world’s total CO2 emissions.
What effect will this have on existing CO2 levels?
By their own figures they state the CO2 in air has risen from .034% to .038% in 50 years.
Assuming this is correct, the world CO2 has increased in 50 years by – .004%.
Per year that is .004 divided by 50 = .00008%. (Getting confusing – but stay with me!).
Of that, because we only contribute 1%, our emissions would cause CO2 to rise .00008 divided by 100 = .0000008%.
Of that 1%, we supposedly emit, the governments want to reduce it by 20% which is 1/5th of .0000008 = .00000016% effect per year they would have on the world CO2 emissions based on their own figures.
That would equate to an area in the same room, as the size of a small pin.
For that, they have gone crazy with the ridiculous trading schemes, Solar and Roofing Installations, Clean Coal Technology, Renewable Energy, etc, etc.
How ridiculous it that?
The cost to the general public and industry will be enormous and cripple, even closing some smaller businesses.
T. L. Cardwell
My name is Terence Cardwell. I spent 25 years in the Electricity Commission of NSW working, commissioning and operating the various power units. My last was the 4 X 350 MW Munmorah Power Stations near Newcastle. I would be pleased to supply you any information you may require.
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Thanks to Terrence.
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While TA agree to the Paris farce in Dec 2016, it was under the condition that all other countries signed it..The US didn’t
It was Greg Hunt that signed the Paris Agreement on April 2016.
Turnbull was always a leftist sicko-phant.
Tony Abbott wanted to build new coal fired power, and abolish the RET, but was blocked in the Senate, then undermined by the leftist black-hand group.
Morrison offered to build 4 gas and 1 coal fired power station. Blocked by leftist states and green psychoes like Matt Kean.. only one gas might get built.
So no. this whole mess is down totally to leftist states, and that idiotic anti-science, anti-CO2 agenda.
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first line.. should be Dec 2015
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That reads better.
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“While TA agree to the Paris farce in Dec 2016, it was under the condition that all other countries signed it..The US didn’t”
You’re correct. Obama signed the Agreement in 2016 But as the US hadn’t signed in 2015 why did Abbott?
“It was Greg Hunt that signed the Paris Agreement on April 2015.”
Doesn’t really matter. Abbott was PM so takes responsibility. Hunt or any other minister cannot unilaterally decide to sign up the government for anything. That is the responsibility of the Cabinet which, as you know, is headed by the PM
I notice you, like Jo, avoided answering my question on why in March 2019 Abbott stated categorically Australia should remain the Paris Agreement and, to the best of my knowledge, has not repudiated that position.
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GHunt seems to have been a busy boy.
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The Paris agreement was not signed under an Abbott government… Period.
And probably wouldn’t have been because the US had withdrawn.
That is why Abbott had to be replaced.
You still haven’t said if you agree that we should have followed Tony Abbott’s lead on removing the RET and building more coal fired power.
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And of course it was the “emissions obsession” under Turnbull that made him say we should withdraw.
After that Morrison put forward the funding to build 4 gas and 1 coal fired power station. Abbott’s rationalism was being heard.
But of course the leftist states blocked those desperately needed power stations… just the one, maybe, in NSW
And that is now history.
If we had followed TA back in 2013 and removed the RET and built new coal fired power stations, we would not be in this mess now.
I’m sure even a little child-mind like you can see that fact.
Dare you agree, though. 😉
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“US hadn’t signed in 2015 why did Abbott”
Abbott DID NOT sign in 2015.. he may have agreed to.. but only if the US did.
Greg Hunt signed in April 2016 under the Turnbull government.
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“first line.. should be Dec 2015″
Ian cannot even read.
He then says ““It was Greg Hunt that signed the Paris Agreement on April 2015.””
Wrong, he signed in 2016 under a Turnbull government.
There were actually reports that Tony Abbott was holding back from actually putting pen to paper because the US could not sign..
It was one of the main reasons he had to be removed.
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“avoided answering my question”
If we had followed TA back in 2013 and removed the RET and built new coal fired power stations, we would not be in this mess now.
Do you agree with Tony Abbott or not?
I doubt a little man like you has the guts to answer with your own thoughts.
Maybe find a poll somewhere ?
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In your last link, TA is again saying we needed to build new coal fired power stations
If only people had listened to him !
If only they hadn’t put him under immediate siege of fugly far-leftist distractions and had let him get on with doing what needed to be done back them.
But there was, and still is, just too much idiotic climate nonsense getting in the way for sensible, rational decisions to be made.
Wouldn’t you agree.
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Its a moot argument, they are all “politicians” not ‘Left’ or ‘Right’, there is no difference between the pigs and the farmers.
They are all just ‘smile and wave’ actors being told what to say by people above them and only interested in how fast they can enrich themselves and how to get to the next world meeting of some stupid organisation or other to hob-knob with the other actors.
Surely by now people have realised that nothing happens when you change one party for another, and if you want change you will have to destroy the whole system, not the actors within it.
All this infantile talk about who was the ‘best’ Aussie prime minister makes me cringe, its like listening to a bunch of 12-year-olds who think Spiderman is real. Stop being so ingenuous people and wake up! Democracy is NOT the answer!
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You’d prefer Xi? Pol Pot? Stalin?
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Still can’t read between the lines.
Pol Pot and Stalin are dead so yeah!
You like being led, need to be led.
Kind regards,
Antivaxxer. (prefered pronoun, Clean Skin)
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There are many options available- Start with no compulsory taxes, so they have to operate within the money we give them voluntarily. Have a plebiscite on all decisions, let the people vote for laws and spending. Don’t elect people, appoint them from a lottery..
Most people have been blinded by the propaganda that says the American way is the best the world has ever seen, democracy gives everything to everybody. They moan about the Govt but have no options apart from voting the identical actors in from the other side and wondering why that didn’t work. They can’t see it is a war and it is those in power against those who pay for them.
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I’ve given you a green for what’s there up to the last paragraph.
Democracy is no good when it’s corrupted, but no system can work when it’s corrupted.
Isolate and punish corruption.
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According to Energy Minister Bowen on ABC’s Q&A last night, we don’t have to worry because the sun will be shining and the wind will be blowing somewhere in Australia – far southern Tasmania looks a chance for wind. He did not mention the need for a spiderweb of transmission lines to make it work.
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RJ
I cannot find that episode on the ABC site. Maybe they are just slow.
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Within a day or so of becoming Energy Minister, Bowen was on TV explaining the case for renewable energy. He said renewable energy is free.
I said at the time he is partly correct, wind energy and solar energy are free but there is a cost to convert the free energy to useable energy such as electricity, transmission of the electricity to users and providing alternative energy sources for the frequent times when the free energy is unavailable.
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Well, since we’re ignoring the need to convert a potential source of energy into a useable form, then coal, gas, and uranium are free too.
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Wind is free. Steam is expensive. It didn’t take ship-owners long to work out that steam was more cost-effective[*]. The same rules apply to electricity generation. If governments would just get out of the way, there is an army of energy people desperate to provide more cost-effective power, ie. cheaper power, using expensive fossil fuels instead of free wind and sunshine.
Don’t believe me? Just get out of the way, let all the different energies compete on a level playing field, and see who wins.
[*] The last large (200+ft) sail-assisted cargo vessels were the Nippon Kokan and Usuki Tekkosho built in 1984. They had engines.
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Wind and solar energy are NOT free . . .
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Yeah, in the same way that oil and gas are free – they are after all, just sitting there waiting to be used.
However, while Labor and the Greens like to talk about the cost of turning those raw fossil fuels into energy, they’re not so keen to talk about the total cost of making wind or sunbeams run my fridge or power my lights.
Oil, gas, wind and sunlight are all free in exactly the same way. The cost is added when we turn them into reliable, available, usable energy, which is when things start to look very iffy for ‘renewables’.
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or that many diffuse low power sources do not a grid make
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Everyone knows that if there is no wind hanging the dishes out to dry is not going to work.
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Morning Jo,
What a collosal joke.
I think i’m still in shock at last month’s result.
On the plus side, I’ve decided what form my personal protest is going to take (you may like it)…
I’m going to print my own bumper sticker in big red print (48 or 72 font) saying…
Ah hem, have you got…
Albo-Voter-Remorse Yet?!
Warm regards,
reformed warmist of Logan
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Cant say that I’m shocked at all….why on earth would anyone vote for alp lite and their big govt, big debt, zero emissions(jobs) insanity, when you can get the real thing and a bit quicker? The lnp are pathetic, only marginally less worse than their alp/greens comrades. With Duttons teal appointments and the nats now focusing on inner city ‘climate concerns’, I don’t see that changing. The downward spiral continues unabated, whilst our politicians are living like kings.
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So you got what you wanted. Enjoy!
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Last night on Sky 53 one of the Liberal guests told viewers to use what they want and if it crashes the system so be it. I agree. Only when the whole rotten mess collapses might we get some sense at the top. That is being generous I know but one lives in hope. The green dreamers are like those who know the world will end at a quarter past eight and get disappointed when it does not happen. Bowen may get his wish. He failed as Immigration Minister, he failed as Shadow Treasurer and now he is failing as Energy Minister. The trouble is he is dragging Australia down with him.
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Bowens appointment as Energy Minister goes way beyond the Peter Principle. I think we are in Kamala Harris territory now.
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Looking at wind power generation in South Oz on the AEMO widget for the last 24 hours and it’s claiming 86% , was 98% fossil fuel last night and this morning are they “homogenising” wind generation?
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AEMO 24 hr widget currently only goes to 4pm yesterday.. the major drop happened after 4pm.
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I think I mentioned in a post last night, that between 4pm and 8pm on Thursday, wind turbine output in SA and Vic dropped by some 3740 MW
That is about 1.4 time Bayswater’s capacity lost in just 4 hours.
Currently, there is only 14MW of wind in SA, they are relying totally on Gas, Diesel and interconnects..
And Victoria’s wind fleet is producing just 136MW, Relying on Brown coal, gas and hydro.
Hydro has been doing a lot of work over the last few weeks. It would be interesting to see what the current water levels are, because if it has to be curtailed, we are really in big trouble. !
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Yes, hydro failue is definitely a concern, look at what happened in Tasmania after they ran their dam levels down selling electricity to Victoria – then the cable failed, Tasmania went into a drought and they had to bring in diesels to keep the state going.
I often wonder what will happen with the Snowy 2
ifwhen there is a prolonged drought. Who gets the water? the river systems? the farmers, the cities – or do we use what hasn’t evaporated to maintain the pretence of a successful hydro battery?250
The Snowy Hydro 2.0 battery supposedly will have a capacity of 350GW hours and can generate for up to 175 hours at full capacity.
So that translates to an output of 2GW for just over a week.
However, once that is exhausted, it may take months or even years to recharge the battery because where are you going to get 2.5GW spare power for over a week to recharge it (2.5GW because hydro is typically 80% efficient)?
They won’t be able to afford to use anything like its capacity due to the unlikelihood of being able to recharge it.
I think it will be used like all other Big Batteries. It will be used for electricity price arbitrage.
Another point, how are they going to charge it for its first use? Again, where will the power come from, and water as well for that matter….?
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Flood, in the right places, would assist in recharging the hydro battery, but as we are told, floods are caused by climate change.
Drought, in other words less or no clouds, could assist in producing more energy from solar sources, but drought is caused by climate change.
Constant wind speed between about 18 and 50 kph would produce more energy from wind sources, but that would also be climate change.
In other words, the energy from renewable sources, which is supposed to stop climate change, could work better with climate change.
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The water for Snowy Hydro – and I expect Snowy2 – comes from rain in the Alps and mainly from the annual snow melt. As the snow was no longer going to fall, or would be much diminished by 2020, where did they intend to get the water for the hydro, let alone the battery? Why no-one asked Turnbull this question astounds me.
Alarmists never think things through. Building a future energy resource that requires an input they predicted would not be there by the time it was constructed.
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William,
You comment demonstrates yet again that the “powers that be” know the forecasts are rubbish. The Greens know the forecasts are rubbish. Labor knows. The Liberals know. The Nats know. Even Malcolm Turnbull knows. They all know.
Labor also knows that the cost of going to 82% renewables by 2030 is catastrophic economic vandalism. They know it can’t be done without the complete destruction of the Australian economy. They know.
That’s why it will not happen.
That’s why they have to crash the NEM. That why they need a rolling power crisis.
They’re trying to find a way through to nuclear.
They have to make the green/left look like the complete fools that we know them to be. But that has to be done in the eyes of the voting public – who have been misled by the green/left saboteurs.
A war will fix it.
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“where will the power come from,”
If there is no wind and its cloudy, you have to get that energy from COAL or GAS
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Diesel also seems to play a significant role
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particularly in SA. !
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the other states haven’t degenerated quite far enough for significant bulk diesel to be installed … yet !!
40
On the bright side, if this is ever completed there will always be a market for coal generation, apart from the spring thaw, I’d guess.
This solid market will allow coal turbines to run as they are designed to – continuously.
As an aside: Who “owns” Snowy power, NSW or Vic?
Another aside: Qld can generate over 400 MW from pumped hydro. It is MIA because the promised “cheap, excess power” from ruinables doesn’t exist.
40
“Snowy Hydro is a fully Australian-owned company, incorporated under the Corporations Act (Cth). It is governed by an independent Board of Directors, and operates on a strictly commercial basis. The Commonwealth Government is the sole shareholder of Snowy Hydro Ltd, from which it receives an annual dividend.”
10
At this moment (3:00pm on 17th) wind in SA is producing SFA and diesel about 10%. Plenty of solar but that will be gone in about 2 hours.
60
Very good points. Unfortunately beyond the comprehension of our politicians.
70
The mistake rational thinkers make is that this is just misguided policy and extreme incompetence by the Left.
No one could possibly be so stupid as to think you can run a modern civilisation on weather-dependent electricity. After all, weather dependent power generation was rapidly dumped over 200 years ago as soon as there was a reliable steam engine developed. And no one who has any clue about anything could possibly not understand the implausibility of grid-scale batteries to replace proper power stations.
The Left’s policy of energy starvation is quite deliberate and part of the strategy of the Elites to substantially lower the standard of living of the West.
The Elites know exactly what they are doing but sadly they have a slave army of useful idiots to propagandise for them.
Australia Governments of any variety have always shown a fanatical compliance with UN decrees so Australia seems a good testing ground for the foundations of “The Great Reset”. If it can be done here (it can, given our highly compliant and apathetic population) it can be done anywhere.
I had the unfortunate experience of watching TV news this morning. None of the “journalists” or people they “interviewed” had any clue what was going on, they just blamed a lack of power on lack of installation of unreliables over the last ten years. (Do people really watch and believe that stuff?)
492
We now have a perfect storm of civilisation-destroying energy starvation and bioweapons.
A) Australia’s electrical grid is on the verge of collapse.
B) On the Australian “news” they are claiming a new version of the omicrom covid variant that is supposedly killing children.
C) Dr John Campbell has a new video about monkeypox talking about the rapid rise in cases and the unusually high number of mutations for a DNA virus.
221
According to the AEMO dashboard Wind has not fallen below 17% over the last 48 hours. This is at odds with the ANERO.ID data, which has not updated to current conditions.
Why should I believe a vanity project over the official data?
Why did coal and gas withdraw form the market until AEMO forced them back?
Why did coal and gas producers not maintain sufficient feedstock, if lack of fuel is now a problem?
Why is this ‘lack’ of wind not a problem in Western Australia?
Stay sceptical
439
Peter, all of the above has been explained to you many times.
Bottom line is that you cannot run a modern civilisation on weather-dependent generators or any necessary practical amount of batteries.
This has been known for over 200 years and demonstrated by the rapidity with which human, animal, windmill and sailboat power was dumped as soon as suitable steam engines were developed for the relevant applications.
Indeed you should. We already are.
432
David, there’s no point explaining anything to Peter Fitzroy. He doesn’t comprehend what is being explained to him, takes it out of context, goes off on his own tangent, and won’t follow any links given to him, and here he is again, just telling flat out l1e$ all over again. Mind you, I’ll take him at his word that he’s not ly1ng on purpose, it’s just that he has no concept of what he is looking at, does not know how to use the site in question, (Andrew Miskelly’s Aneroid site) and because he perceives Joanne as not from his position of the extreme left, then any site she uses is also not of the left, and therefore that site itself is being mendacious in his eyes.
Now, note the time he put up his comment 7.41AM this morning, and he says:
That Aneroid site operates in real time, and is Updated for each FIVE MINUTE interval, for EVERY power plant in the AEMO, from EVERY source of power generation in the AEMO ….. and that’s for the WHOLE of Australia, every single plant that generates electricity.
Wind generation dropped below 17% of Capacity at 8.50PM last night, and has stayed there, a full ELEVEN HOURS before he made his clueless comment.
The site operates in REAL TIME.
And what makes it so good, is the data can be traced back to March 2014, EIGHT YEARS ….. for EVERY Power plant in the country. NO other site does that.
That way we can trace just how poorly wind actually performs, and then detail it.
Now here, Joanne mentions this most recent failure.
This is not a ‘one off’ event.
I recorded all that data for a period of 800 days, almost three years. There were 265 occasions where something similar to this happened, hence once every THREE DAYS, and the variation (the LOSS of power) was between 500MW and 3700MW, the equivalent of one to seven of those large scale coal fired Units.
Wind Nameplate is now 9854MW, and is currently operating at 3.8% CF, so here, that’s 375MW ….. from SEVENTY SIX wind plants mind you, or the equivalent loss of NINETEEN of those large scale Units.
So, when this Fitzroy person slags off at a site because Joanne uses it, be aware he has no comprehension whatsoever of what he is talking about.
Tony.
461
no Anton, it is I said, what you are suggesting is that the AEMO data is wrong.
ALso what is the current CF of your beloved coal
03
“what you are suggesting is that the AEMO data is wrong”
No, just that YOU are too incompetent to understand it
“Also what is the current CF of your beloved coal”
WELL ABOVE anything wind and solar could ever dream of !
10
Hi Tony,
Brilliant as always, and thank you for giving PF the required drubbing.
I find you 800-days result to be quite interesting. In the paper I produced back in 2012, which looked at wind farm performance data for calendar year 2010, I came up with a figure for the number of “wind droughts” as Rafe Champion so aptly names them, of 109 for the 365 day period. I notice that some have tried to suggest that 2010 was an unusual year, but it looks like our respective results, for different time periods, are pretty much in agreement.
Whatever, can’t run a grid on that sort of nonsense.
Cheers,
Paul Miskelly
110
Tony
I’m a little confused by the AEMO numbers for demand. Apparently Vic peak demand is less than Qld. Is this real?
20
Anto,
that is absolutely correct.
What needs to be realised here is that Victoria uses a lot of Natural gas for heating and cooking purposes in the three sectors of consumption, Industry Commerce and Residential.
That amounts to an awful lot of what would normally be supplied from electricity.
In overall ….. ENERGY consumption, Victoria is still the second largest consumer in the Country.
Tony.
50
Gotcha – thanks for that.
10
Anto – a paragraph from this report about Natural Gas usage in the ACT for 2018 backs up what Anton was advising:
Not a lot of people recognise the importance of gas heating during winter in the southern states. If gas is not allowed for domestic heating as certain emissions policies dictate, then electricity generation would need to at least double during certain winter months, when solar and wind are most variable and least effective and some sort of backup is needed. If that happens to be gas-fired peaking generators with attendant generator/transmission losses, why bother. Just let us continue use the most efficient heating method around.
30
David @ #8.1.
That reminds me. My grandfather used to breed draught horses.
In the 1920 drought he lost a lot of horses.
In 1923 he bought a Fordson tractor.
He immediately sold all his draught horses.
10
AEMO Widget ends at 4pm yesterday.
Please…. Stop your ignorant comments, everyone is getting very sick of them.
Wasting our time having to explain basic things to you as if you were a kindergarten child.
Gas was pushed off by wind, Coal has still been carrying the bulk of supply..See that black and brown band across the bottom.. that’s COAL
After that wind all but disappeared after 4pm, expensive gas and diesel (in SA) had to brought on line.
Currently that AEMO dashboard shows that in SA wind is only producing 19MW, Coal 1307MW, Diesel 113MW
Victoria just 124MW from wind. Hazelwood would have helped cover that huge drop in output, but where is it !
Lack of wind is not a problem in WA because they still have plenty of reliable resources left to cover when wind fails.
Eastern NEM has systematically destroyed and made un-viable a lot of its reliable resources, and currently does not have enough coal to cover the huge gaps left when wind drops.
Fixing the issues at coal stations and beefing up the coal fleet, requires funding, which is being withheld by the idiocy of the green anti-CO2 agenda.
381
Lack of wind isn’t’ an issue in WA, because they have a metric-s**ttonne of backup coal and gas.
the facts are that without coal and gas, when the wind doesn’t blow, you would need 1000’s hectares of batteries to even go close to covering the shortfall.
160
“Why did coal and gas producers not maintain sufficient feedstock, if lack of fuel is now a problem?”
Plenty of coal, hundreds of years of it… Why didn’t we build new coalies when Tony Abbott recommended it. !
If we had done that, none of this would be happening.
Gas is a problem because leftist states have made it almost impossible to access except for a few export points.
Tell your comrade Dan to open up gas exploration and drilling and the Palace chook to get out the way as well.
260
2 words
Sovereign risk.
You dont build assets to have them deemed obsolete by government.
And that what net zero is.
In fact if you had assets likely to be deemed obsolete in a business sense you would likely cut back on maintenance as well. That is why we are in this mess today. The election result has confirmed government policy to deem obsolete coal fired power and so the maintenance has been scaled back, because there is no return on investment. That combined with the escalation of higher prices for what is produced to make more profit and seek an earlier return on investment. It doesnt take long for things to break if maintenance is not maintained.
We are in for a world of hurt
400
“Sovereign risk.”
Green anti-science, anti-CO2 agenda risk !
190
Stranded Assets is the correct terminology.
There were murmurings five years ago, but the multinationals play hard ball.
‘Shortages of gas in the Australian market have led to calls for the government to impose restrictions on gas exports. Energy industry executives have responded by saying that market interventions would create a “sovereign risk”, deterring foreign investors and buyers of Australian gas.’ (The Conversation 2017)
20
Why should I believe a vanity project over the official data? why would you trust ‘official data’?
Why did coal and gas withdraw form the market until AEMO forced them back? because, due to economic pressures, due to renewable uptake, it’s not $$$ viable.
Why did coal and gas producers not maintain sufficient feedstock, if lack of fuel is now a problem? see question 2.
Why is this ‘lack’ of wind not a problem in Western Australia? huge backups of coal and gas, which you seemingly are ignoring.
stay woke and keep ignoring the facts, pete…
162
‘Why did coal and gas withdraw form the market until AEMO forced them back?’
There was no profit to be had, so the new socialist government took out a big stick.
160
Yes, producing power at a loss is a socialist principle, until you run out of other people’s money.
330
Its a bit more complex, Minister Kean in NSW (conservative government) has introduced emergency powers.
‘Australia’s energy crisis has been driven, in part, by rising wholesale gas prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
‘That triggered a surge in the wholesale price of electricity and forced AEMO to instigate a price cap.
‘The $300 megawatt price cap meant it cost more for generators to supply electricity than they could sell it for.’ (ABC News)
31
Come on el+gordo!
The NSW government is not a Conservative government. Surely you know that?
And, Kean is another Malcolm Turnbull. A green/left saboteur. Who knows his motivations. Be assured, they’re not honourable.
40
The NSW Liberal State Executive is the centre of LINOism in Australian politics, the LINO leftists have undermined Opposition Leaders Nelson and Abbott, and then Prime Ministers Abbott and Morrison, as Sharri Markson exposed recently on her Sky News programme when she also promoted a new book referring to Turnbull as a primary source of the undermining.
Fortunately there are Liberals remaining in State and Federal parliaments who are opposed to the LINO faction and who have been working to tip them out of influential positions.
But Labor also has factional wars and problems, but the leaders obviously realise that airing dirty washing in public is counter productive, and are too astute to be caught and exposed.
00
Why is coal, mined locally, consumed locally, using local labour, priced at international prices. this is incompetence at all levels.
Are you saying that pricing should not be priced to local conditions, or are you happy to have a portion of society unable to afford power?
What next, workhouses, debtor’s prison, floggings?
11
OMG.. Your ignorance of basic economic is becoming ludicrous. !
The lack of available electricity, and its rising costs has been brought about purely by kow-towing to the anti-life anti-society green agenda.
It is people like YOU that support the anti-CO2 idiocy that are totally to blame for the current situation.
And you are totally to blame for not allowing the only rational fix. That is where the real incompetence is.
REMOVE THE RET, and BUILD NEW COAL FIRED POWER STATIONS.
10
PF are you saying that the government regulations are only “local” too?
00
duncanmsays:
June 17, 2022 at 7:20 am
Some sanity getting through in the comments on Rowe’s article (for once).
John
12 HOURS AGO
“Australia has not installed enough renewable energy quickly enough and has failed to provide enough storage for that energy” – so exactly what does that look like? Wouldn’t that take 20 years and a trillion dollars with still no certainty it would work? Where is the plan, the materials, the costings, the budget for this? It doesn’t exist because the truth about the stupid statement you just made is that the energy system everyone dreams about is exactly that – a dream – not reality. Nowhere in the world does that energy system exist. The biggest policy failure we have had is allowing the activists to prevent upkeep of our existing energy system until we proved the new fairytale energy system you aspire to actually works.
240
I keep getting my comments on “reneweconomy” moderated “out” when I say that sort of thing.
And comments that WA’s system works because of the ability of the gas reservation system to support “variable gas generation” are equally not “understood as truth”.
The system needs a plan to get from here/now to there/then. The Labor Party “management” may be in the process of discovering that fact.
70
Pointless commenting on Renew its just a warped propaganda machine that views everything through an RE is perfect prism. They would never allow an alternative view over there like our resident lefties here , its just dogma
70
I suggest that marginally deficient supply creates a wholesale market where suppliers can offer extraordinarily high prices and have them accepted. The system is designed to inflate retail prices to fund the “transition” to renewables.
80
Because they would not be paid for simply standing by. They would only be paid if dispatched and there would not be a guarantee of this happening.
30
Look at it now – about 2percent nationally. See the point?
30
The reliable generators withdrew from the market because they couldn’t make a quid at the prices being set. If everyone from your bank to the government, to the green lunatics want you to go out of business, then there’s not much you can do, and running at a 7 figure loss is not going to help.
100
Hey Pete,
Tony has done a super-excellent job here in totally refuting your comment.
However, I’d just like to add some more information, not that you will bother to follow it up, but so that others might, and they might be impressed by what happens at what you choose to dismiss as a “vanity site”.
As Tony has already told you, anero.id reports genuine, unembellished, AEMO near-real-time data. How?
Well, take a look at:
https://www.nemweb.com.au/Reports/CURRENT/Dispatch_SCADA/
And, yes, that’s one of the many sets of data pages constantly being churned out by the AEMO.
That is, it is official AEMO data.
Now, if you look closely at the names buried in all those .zip files there, you may just find that they are time-stamped every 5 minutes, up to the most recent, which is about 5 minutes ago.
Refresh the connection in a few minutes time, and you will find that a new .zip file has been added.
What is in those files? They comprise lines and lines of data, each being the output of one of the generators on the grid at the timestamp shown; and as Anton says, that .zip file holds that 5-minute datapoint data for ALL the registered generators on the grid.
So, to produce a daily chart of the output of each and all of those generators, (or, as at the anero.id site, charts of generators by type), unzip each of these DispatchSCADA files, add each line to the file for the relevant generator, then update the relevant chart with all the just-extracted generators’ data.
Set up the site so that it carries out this process 24/7, 365 days of the year. Why do it? Well the AEMO data is all there, hidden in plain sight, but it is tedious to manually extract, etc.
Perhaps you might try it, Peter, and come back and tell us where the anero.id site is presenting false information?
Come on, Peter, do it. Show us your superior computational skills.
If the AEMO dashboard is running behind the AEMO’s real-time data, then, so be it.
For the rest of us, we’re just mighty grateful that Andrew has taken the trouble to make this otherwise-incomprehensible data instantly understandable.
Oh, and Peter, no one pays Andrew to do it.
Regards,
Paul Miskelly
61
Interesting that AEMO 24hr (3rd tad) is still stuck on Thursday 16th at 4pm as its last time point.
This is just before the huge drop off in wind generation ! ?
30
Time to OPEN all the inter-connectors.
AND, leave them open.
80
If a state wants to commit suicide, please don’t insist that adjoining states have to as well.
Let the lunatic states live with their decisions. It MIGHT just wake their citizens up.
QED
150
PM Alba-sleazy was just on TV on Channel 9 explaining again how the crisis is due to not enough unreliables installed due to previous government (which was already extreme green). The interviewer (a female called Nat?) didn’t have a clue and asked no difficult or unscripted questions.
The PM said how Kelly Parker of Rio Tinto told him how they were partly running an aluminium smalelter on unreliables…. No Clue!
211
I’m guessing Parker was a quota hire and not a merit hire. If she had any clue how aluminium smelters worked she wouldn’t say something like that.
Rio Bingo are a “partner” in Queensland’s unreliables energy future.
https://www.riotinto.com/-/media/Content/Documents/News/Releases/Central-Queensland-leads-the-way-in-clean-energy.pdf?rev=8b6f94c176fd4ecc80278de23728f5c4
71
“The PM said how Kelly Parker of Rio Tinto told him how they were partly running an aluminium smalelter on unreliables…. No Clue!”
Like my local shire council. Only buys green electricity to run the shire business. It cant be explained to them that the power coming out of the wall is generated by every possible source, virtue signaling by paying a “premium” for green electrons is a waste of rate payer money. Not one councillor on the local shire has reducing rates as a priority.
91
It’s a pity they aren’t forced to use ‘renewables’ only…they might discover things aren’t so rose (sorry, greenie) as they think.
80
As with the Labor ACT Government that claims the ACT has one hundred per cent renewable energy, ignoring the fact that the electricity mostly comes from the NSW grid and most of it not from so called renewables.
The trick behind the claim is that the ACT Government refers to a very small wind and solar capacity within the ACT and has invested in wind and solar installations elsewhere, and as shareholders dare to then tell people the ACT is one hundred per cent renewable energy supplied.
The leftists have so many tricks to demonise coal and gas or to make renewable appear to be cheap and reliable, which they definitely are not when fully accounted including average twenty year replacements, back up “firming” costs and transmission lines, etc.
00
I like Trump’s joke: “Honey I’d like to read tonight. Is the wind blowing?”
251
Not a joke in Australia’s case. We’ve already been told to turn off porch lights, dishwashers and other “unnecessary” electricity use.
180
I consider all electricity I use to be necessary. Otherwise I wouldn’t use it.
371
Absolutely!
191
But, you don’t need to read, Jacinda does that for us.
20
I must admit I wake up every morning and feel like pinching myself to make sure I’m not having a very bad nightmare.
But alas we really are stupid enough to BELIEVE in the TOXIC, UNRELIABLE S & W lunacy and yet this is also the common BELIEF in the OECD countries today.
And yet for the last 200 years we’ve lived in the very best of times and this will continue to improve according to the UN data for another 78 years or until 2100 and beyond.
Lomborg, Shellenberger, Plimer, Christy, Spencer, Eschenbach etc all understand the data / evidence and yet we’re led by clueless donkeys in every country in the OECD? Just unbelievable but true.
211
Why do the Left think that money grows on trees and that the technology to get rid of fossil fuels just needs people of intellect to mobilise the plebs? How many millions of dollars have been spent on wages to those who create propaganda rather than the technology? It doesn’t take much intelligence to realise that the end game is to coax the great unwashed to go back to being serfs.
We don’t have the ability to use renewables to keep the lights on even with the low wattage LED globes. And ICE will be phased out within the next generation?
101
H B Bearsays:
June 17, 2022 at 9:36 am
Using Turtle Head’s unsurprisingly low intellect analogy it might help the Liars if they thought of coal as stored sunlight.
120
Correct.
I’ve been calling coal “solid sunshine” for yonks.
90
Now, there’s a T-shirt slogan I could use!
70
Trees ….. natures energy bank
30
Trees ….. natures energy bank – Even when they are fossilised Coal
The Fantastically Strange Origin of Most Coal on Earth
Instead, trunks and branches would fall on top of each other, and the weight of all that heavy wood would eventually compress those trees into peat and then, over time, into coal. Had those bacteria been around devouring wood, they’d have broken carbon bonds, releasing carbon and oxygen into the air, but instead the carbon stayed in the wood.
We’re talking about a spectacular amount of carbon. Biochemist Nick Lane guesses that the rate of coal formation back then was 600 times the normal rate. Ward and Kirschvink say that 90 percent—yup, 90 percent!—of the coal we burn today (and the coal dust we see flying about Beijing and New Delhi) comes from that single geological period, the Carboniferous period.
That’s why it’s called “carboniferous”—because it produced so much carbon. “The Carboniferous period was the time of forest burial on a spectacular scale,” the writers say.
20
Ah, you know why we went to plastic straws, eh.
00
On the same vain, I have been saying for years regarding the CO2 released when coal is burnt that all we are doing is recycling the CO2 that was previously in the atmosphere thus making it available for the biosphere to use once more. I then say I’m sure you agree that recycling is good.
50
Perhaps we should always ask the correct question?
If TOXIC, UNRELIABLE S & W are such an obvious improvement, then why are China, India and all of the non OECD countries still building Coal plants like their life and FUTURE depended on it?
And this will continue for many decades into the future according to the message from the recent Glasgow clown show. DUH?
160
This complex low system should get wind farms operating by the weekend.
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
During the recent big chill it seems wind farms were quite active.
13
“This complex low system should get wind farms operating by the weekend.”
And in the meantime?
Light the candles and rug up in more blankets.
150
I recall reading some time back that burning candles to produce light releases more CO2 than burning coal for the same or greater amount of light.
110
‘And in the meantime?’
With a long winter in front the masses are aware that renewables put them at the mercy of nature’s whims. Dutton will put the boot into Bowen and we’ll all get a laugh.
102
Today, in my part of Victoria total cloud cover and minimal wind. Even less wind tomorrow (18/6/22)- that will be the crunch day for Victoria, if there’s any problems with coal. But it might be moderately sunny, so there’s that.
120
Here AGAIN are the problems of using and relying on TOXIC, UNRELIABLE S & W energy. This video only takes 5 minutes to watch and a transcript is also available at the link.
https://www.prageru.com/video/how-much-energy-will-the-world-need
50
Thanks N,
Another great video from Mark Mills. He does an excellent job with both his facts and with the presentation.
Cheers
Dave B
40
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-war-gamed-paying-235m-to-keep-old-power-station-operating-20220616-p5aucb.html
Overnight, NSW govt was given powers to ‘force’ coal miners and rail companies to supply fuel to electricity generators. So we have now ‘temporarily’ nationalised the miners, shippers and entire grid all within a few days??
120
“The 700-megawatt battery will be operational by 2025 to ensure Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong consumers can access more energy from existing electricity generation”
Says it all really, N S & W get power and screw the productive part of the State… I’m praying for sea level increase, maybe 50M and as fast as possible.
10
mmmm 700MW in a 10-12GW+ market, for a little while, maybe , less losses. Thank God! we are saved!
10
And if they don’t?
What?
– Send the coal generators, and transport companies broke faster by fining them large amounts of money?
– Arrest the top execs and put them in chains?
– Expropriate the assets and send in the NSW Public Service to run them?
Has Kean never heard the term “Capital Strike”?
Did Kean never read Ayn Rand?
00
Wouldn’t the deliberate starvation of a civilian population of energy be considered a human rights violation?
111
Yes David it should be a violation of Human rights and yet apart from Bolt, Dean, McCrann etc we never hear any difficult, pertinent or accurate questions from our MSM and so called scientists etc.
Why is it so, I wonder?
91
It’s all good in the People’s Republic of Victoria. Chairman Dan will just command the wind to blow.
51
The people of Vicdanistan love Comrade Chairman Dan. He is doing such a fine job, I have no doubt he’ll be re-elected.
51
The Chinese still love Mao. I rest my case.
60
Laborites still love Gough.
10
I cannot see how they can find people so fking dumb to appoint to these positions! They must have ‘special’ tests to find ‘special’ people..
“Energy Security Board chair Anna Collyer said the pressure on the electricity grid highlighted the need for reform to move “beyond the crisis” by continuing the long-term shift to solar, wind, hydro and other renewable power.”
Pressure on the electricity grid shows exactly the opposite to what she said!
241
I am pretty sure they don’t scour the population for people with a STEM education as a starting point. I realise that is no guarantee given Finkel et al, but its probably not a bad starting point.
10
It was mentioned above about the aim for a lower standard of living. This seems to be their long term aim, I have heard in the media about a “need” to sacrifice our standard of living to save the planet. That is what electric cars are about and will be the result of force feeding renewables. Ever declining mobility, and declining fun days.
Waking the populace about this is the great challenge, the message won’t come from the
mainstream media.
This long term goal by the forces of darkness needs to be a “sticky” thread as we need to challenge this paradigm and make this a talking point.
We do not have to go down this path,the political understanding of this situation is dismal, the message must come from us.
101
AGAIN here’s the Human co2 emissions since 1970 and includes all countries and shipping, airlines etc.
Note that the EU + USA combined co2 emissions are no higher today than in 1970.
Then look at China, India and other developing countries’ soaring co2 emissions over the last 30 years.
Does anyone NOT UNDERSTAND the futility of Aussies trying to reduce co2 emissions and trying to reduce global co2 levels now? DUH?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions#/media/File:World_fossil_carbon_dioxide_emissions_six_top_countries_and_confederations.png
70
Chris Bowen : A#@$&%e deluxe! No more, No less
121
Reality alert from the tiny hybrid King island generator AGAIN.
As always Wind is chaotic, Solar at 1% ,battery ZIP and BASE-LOAD Diesel always supporting all of the above delusions most of the time.
And if these TOXIC , UNRELIABLE disasters can’t work for this tiny community they will never provide RELIABLE energy for Australia.
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
160
Was there a reason why the cables linking Tasmania and Victoria were not routed through one (or both) of the Bass Strait Islands?
Would eliminate the need for diesel there.
50
sounds like a massively expensive option for a tiny island market
80
2500 meg is not small (SE QLD) would of paid for its self quickly.
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
And the ABC spin from 2019. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-02/king-island-looks-to-wave-power-as-third-renewable-source/11371410
As a remote community, King Island is not connected to a mainland electricity supply.
It used to rely on diesel fuel, but now solar and wind power are its dominant energy source.
According to Hydro Tasmania, for 20 per cent of the year the island is “diesel-off” meaning 100 per cent of its power supply is renewable.
Nobody looks and nobody cares.
30
what? you are equating King Island to SE QLD? Toowoomba would dwarf KI
have you got your units mixed up or something?
00
There is some info here from ten years ago.
https://tasmaniantimes.com/2012/11/king-island-wind-power-and-basslink-mark-2/
20
Neville,
We at Peko-Wallsend owned/operated the King Island Scheelite mine for many years, so I used to drop in a few times a year. That was before renewables when diesel dominated. We looked into whether wind or solar could play a part and decided not.
Is it possible that you and I crossed paths at some time and place?
sherro01 at outlook dot com
Geoff S
20
AGAIN here’s the 2021 to 2022 co2 level increase from Mauna Loa.
That’s an increase of 1.86 ppm in just the last 12 months.
Will our donkeys ever wake up? Of course I’m not saying this is a bad thing but it sure doesn’t suit the religious fanatic’s BS and fra-d.
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
30
For Americans, don’t let your civilisation destroyers tell you that you can just build more dams for hydro batteries for the unreliables.
This article runs the numbers and demonstrates the impossibility of doing that.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/pump-up-the-storage/
60
“For Americans, don’t let your civilisation destroyers tell you that you can just build more dams for hydro batteries …”
Not an issue, the American chapter of the Green Blob won’t allow any new dams to be built and are trying to tear down some existing dams.
California is about to begin the nation’s largest dam removal project.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-is-about-to-begin-the-nation-s-largest-dam-removal-project-here-s-what-it-means-for-wildlife/ar-AAXyHpJ
61
Removing dams in California? The next time that state is engulfed by human induced conflagrations, they will need to fly those water bombers quite a bit further to re-fuel. Should go really well.
60
Meanwhile, just quietly, Western Australia has had a separate issue:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-turbine-collapses-in-serious-event-at-wa-wind-farm/
130
Another failed whirling wonder.
At least some birds will be saved and there’ll be a little less maddening infrasound and shadow flicker.
And it will be easier and cheaper to manage the grid without it.
But where will they bury the blades?
91
Probably caused by climate change.
The designers probably got a few years of wind data from one of those reliable nearby BOM weather stations that showed wind gusts up to about 120 kph, so to be on the safe side they built it to withstand gusts up to 150 kph. One day there is a gust of 160 kph and the tower collapses. Of course the 160 kph wind gust was caused by climate change.
And the wind turbine was not producing electricity at the time because the wind speed was above 50 kph.
71
Am now wondering whether they plan to harvest that canola.
40
Some just got harvested. News at 7, worlds largest crop circle discovered in WA canola field.
50
From a historical perspective, it’s interesting having a front seat to observe the systematic destruction of our civilisation and be able to discuss and analyse it in real time.
Other peoples at other times have observed civilisational collapse but have not been able to discuss it and analyse in real time…
141
I am anticipating this quote in the Q2 2022 AEMO NEM performance report:
What AEMO have yet to realise is that the CSIRO is an incompetent bunch of academics who have failed Australia on many fronts in recent years.
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhFG4cx21dMijUI3H
– The Finkel report relied entirely on the magic of geographic diversity such that average capacity factors could be applied to establish the required level of generation. The synoptic chart above highlights the failure of diversity.
If you know a teenager contemplating a career ask them if they have considered becoming a power station fitter/welder/mechanic/electrician/engineer? No kid wants to start a dead end career. Cut of supply of young people into recruitment to run your operation and the operation soon stops running. I bet the situation is different in China.
If you know a career adviser, ask them if they have ever been inside a coal fired power station or underground coal mine.
120
If you know a teenager contemplating a career ask them if they would like to be the chief scientist. Now. We could do with some improvement there.
60
We should never forget that even the CSIRO tells us that the SH is a NET co2 SINK and the NH is a NET co2 SOURCE.
See “seasonal variation” at the link.
https://capegrim.csiro.au/
80
I wrote to ScoMo on this as he places the CSIRO on his list of approved scientific sources.
The response was that he disagreed with me.
You cannot win with these blinkered drongos
71
…i ask in numerous comment sections of newspapers (get “likes”) but as yet never an answer.
Which countries have seen the uptake of renewables work?
131
Norway have had them working for a long time. So much so that they are able to export their oil wealth and get very good income in return.
New Zealand do reasonably well but drought conditions have resulted in power rationing from time-to-time.
Canada was doing quite well until environmentalist stopped new dams. I know of a 1GW power tunnel in Canada that even had generators supplied before it was abandoned on environmental grounds.
Tasmania (not a country though) is essentially there but environmental activists prevented taking advantage of some of the best resources.
There are some African countries that rely heavily on wood and dung for their energy needs. That is where Europe is heading; fewer people living in subsistence conditions. UK are basically reliant on imported wood. Australia’s AEMO now has the mastermind of UK’s modern energy grid at the helm – Australia has its own wood though.
Finland have quite a lot of heat and electricity production from their forest products industry. I do not know the proportion but it is increasing as forest productivity improves due to all the old CO2 humans are adding to the atmosphere.
41
Thank you – shall start looking further
20
Norway, NZ, Canada and Tasmania all have substantial hydro, Norway and Tasmania close to 100%, and NZ and Canada over 60%. Hydro, where the geography is amenable, is tried and true, so no brownie points there. Surely the acid question is rather: what countries relying primarily on wind+solar+batteries, have seen the uptake of renewables work?
90
was looking at Norway – they have never been fossil fuel dependent; Norway has 1,166 hydroelectric generating stations (@ 92% of total power) is under 5% the land mass of Australia and has 5.5 million people.
From 2011 “Norway on alert as hydro-power critically low”
“OSLO (Reuters) – Norway is on the alert for potential electricity disruption as it deals with an unprecedented low in hydro-power reservoir levels, the head of Norway’s water resources and energy agency (NVE) told Reuters.
…..a 20% chance of power rationing…..Norway would be able to cope with the situation only if the grid and the cables that import power did not sustain technical problems.”
.
Australia has 120 hydroelectric stations (@ 6.4% of total power)
.
.
and NZ not historically fossil fuel dependent either
…. 1975 90.6% renewable (hydro made up 81%)
…. 2020 81.1% renewable (hydro made up 56%)
NZ domestic power prices up 5.2% in last 12 months.
60
No not really. All those rely of hydro (either dams or run of river). Most RE acolytes do not class hydro as RE. The question stands I think. We should be talking about widely deployable generation not about a few locations geographically blessed and not really indicative of anything for the rest of the world.
70
What do you mean by RE if you do not mean hydro?
10
seriously? solar and wind
00
I can’t see Tasmania working too well in El Nino years.
60
That is where wind power can provide an economic return by conserving perched water. The hydro can respond reasonably well to demand variation and the wind reduces the average demand.
When they first began installing wind turbines in Tasmania it did increase the voltage variation but it was tolerable. Bass link makes economic sense as well to maximise the value of Tasmanian hydro even in combination with coal plants. Send power south when demand is low and use the hydro to meet peak demand in the evening and morning peaks.
02
The sum total of my knowledge of Tasmania …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StG2u5qfFRg
sorry, it would take years of therapy to remove these images from my brain.
Although, the T Devil’s dialect is very similar to the Southerners I grew up with.
20
It might be reasonable to define your definition of what “work” means.
Does “work” mean:
Dispatchable, reliable, affordable, power?
Profitable subsidies to advocates, investors, and manufacturers of “renewables”?
Ability to provide frequency, voltage, and reactive power requirements in a load following grid?
Defining the basis of measure is fundamental to any comparison of anything to something else.
40
A “Weather Dependent” economy is a feature of 3rd world nations and an admission of incompetence in a formerly 1st world nation.
Everyone associated with creating/aiding/abetting this debacle ought be tried and sentenced with assets forfeit.
It takes generations to climb up from poverty and degradation into liberty and abundance, and a few years to destroy it all. Why is that?
131
There has to be some recourse for incompetence but there is no legal recourse.
Canberra is infested with incompetent, bumping academics who suck off the wealth created elsewhere. They are disconnected from reality. There is no politician with the nouse or confidence to call out stupidity.
131
The Byzantine energy sector is an alphabet soup of acronyms AEMC, AEMO, NEM, AER, NER; bodies supposedly administering an impenetrable maze of contradictory aims and rules much beloved of bureaucrats lawyers accountants but that ensures no individual or group can be blamed for anything.
101
You forgot ARENA and REFC.
RobK
60
It only took two decades to replace the State based electricity monopolies and their bureaucracies with a combinded Federal and State bureaucracy that is far more inefficient and complex than what existed.
Little Johny Howard set this train wreck on its course with the RET. No intermittent generator should be permitted to connect to the grid unless it can guarantee dispatchable capacity.
121
The Finkel report did say that RE transition would require a lot more “oversight “(I always worry when that word is used)….he got that bit right.
70
AEMO’s budget has been increasing at 12% per year since Hazelwood shut down. I bet it jumps a whole lot more this year.
I think its cost is levied at the wholesale level. So included in the wholesale price. They would get a windfall if the fee was proportional to the energy sales but it is based on cost recovery, which probably includes handsome bonuses for senior employees.
30
AGL’s annual report is fairly incomprehensible even to a retired accountant and active stock market investor like myself:).
If they do happen to achieve any profit, it’s not really clear how.
50
Labor will keep doubling down on the ” more renewables ” mantra. They are like a broken record, but it’s the tune the electorate wants to hear. Things will keep muddling along. The best we can hope for is that the existing coal generators keep having their lives extended and keep on keeping on and creakily cranking out current. The governments (likely at State level) might need to fling them a few subsidies to stay operational. They subsidize everything else, so why not. Cannon-Brookes mightn’t like it, but he is free to sell his AGL shares.
70
Contrary to Albo and Mob renewable installations have been State Government approved and constructed as applied for over the past decade, since Federal Labor created their over 30 per cent RET with ongoing incentive subsidies to private sector investors.
My question is therefore if not enough of them are now operating when the wind blows and the sun shines since 2010-2011 when the RET commenced how would Federal Labor increase the number of installations by the private sector and work with the State Governments to approve development applications to overcome the shortage by 2030?
31
Albo will duck, weave, bluster and obfuscate. He will then blame Morisson.
30
Any fool could have seen this coming – but present day politicians are a special kind of fool…
130
the 21st century is shaping up to look a lot like the 7th.
130
Yes, the Left are returning us to pre-Enlightenment, pre-industrial values and technology:
E.g.:
-returning to wind power after over 200 years of steam power.
The destruction of Enlightenment values such as:
-the pursuit of happiness
-ongoing progress for all people
-freedom of speech and association
-knowledge based on reason and logic
-liberty
-toleration of alternative ideas
-government based on laws and a constitution.
61
Like the sailing clipper captain on a voyage to the UK from Australia to deliver wool, ship becalmed at sea and delayed.
The captain assured the crew that soon renewable energy will arrive.
The shipping company later decided to invest in a steam powered ship.
50
Dave … hope you don’t mind if I call you Dave …
you left out body autonomy and self defense.
“-freedom of speech and association”
Here in America, we had some smart old guys that made this the #1 priority.
We all know what #2 is …
both soon to be gone.
The last redoubt of said Enlightenment.
The forces of darkness gather at the walls.
No really, just visit DC.
Funny how the alleged enlightened hate the Enlightenment.
40
Situations of energy ” scarcity ” and electricity rationing will become normalized. The sheeple will accept it, as they accepted the masks and needless Covid restrictions. After all, we all have to do our bit to save the planet, don’t we?
101
so, ‘saving the planet’ apparently means giving billions of dollars to green energy carpetbaggers while not materially reducing ‘carbon’ emissions.
100
Meanwhile in Italy some idiot climate alarmists get what they deserve 😄😄😄
https://twitter.com/i/status/1537333254835019776
70
Excellent, but the motorists were too tolerant.
Play stupid ganes on on the autostrade, win stupid prizes.
50
should have tied them onto the guard rails with their banner.
90
many years ago there was a G7 meeting in Evian , France
across the lake in Switzerland some activists tried this sort of stunt with a rope across the Geneva-Lausanne motorway at bridge with abseilers suspended on either side. Police arrived and immediately cut the rope. Abseiler 1 was OK as he had a friction knot (belay?) on the guard rail. Abseiler 2 not so lucks and crashed into the river bed , sustaining severe injuries. He then tried to sue everybody. The Swiss judge told him he was a victim of his own stupidity and to go away.
80
Wouldn’t you just luv to have a full feedlot effluent tanker available !
50
Climate change in 3, 2, 1 –
“Tucker Carlson Interviews American Rancher about Extreme Kansas Heat Causing Cattle Loss
June 16, 2022 | Sundance | 61 Comments”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/06/16/tucker-carlson-interviews-american-rancher-about-extreme-kansas-heat-causing-cattle-loss/
10,000 +
30
DLK’s WIND STORAGE
wind not blowing?
then you might need a box of wind, as captured by one of our wind engineering experts.
Harness the power of nature!!!*
capture speeds include:
-gentle breeze
-strong gust
-wind devil
-gale
-tornado**
-hurricane**
*wind not guaranteed to blow.
**extra cost, please inquire within.
81
What’s the best way to short renewables?
60
A clever hack.
10
AGL wanted to build a LNG terminal on Westernport bay in Victoria but the Andrews government and the environmental lobby nixed that development last year. Environment Victoria described AGL as ” Australia’s biggest corporate polluter “. It’s also Australia’s biggest electricity generator, but that obviously doesn’t count for very much. No, AGL is a very naughty boy indeed and deserves a good caning – according to the green lobby. See what we’re up against?
60
Wouldn’t it be easier and more cost effective for the Andrew’s Labor Government to approve development of the Gippsland Gas Field that at present is locked away?
Reported to contain more gas than Bass Strait did when opened during the 1960s.
60
Just on the 6.00 o’clock news Dear Leader Dick Tator Dan smiling and saying “well if companies want to explore for and develop gas fields all they have to do is follow the correct procedures”
He forgot to mention years and years of permit applications that HIS government controls, allowing unelected green groups to take all and anyone to court to delay the process and then the prohibitive costs imposed without any guarantee that any project will go ahead.
Just look at the way this government has banned logging of native timber and still does NOTHING to protect licensed timber cutters from alleged environmental activists
40
Wind and solar energy are the cheapest sources and will eventually lower electricity prices, so governments claim.
But how do they cost wind and solar and compare with power stations?
* Power station accountable working life is fifty years, well maintained they could extend to eighty or more years subject to maintenance costs. But for example wind turbines average working life is twenty years and then the expense of dismantling and replacing arise. To achieve sixty years two more removal and replacements needed. Add “firming” ancillary equipment generators, batteries, grid stabilisers expenses.
* Power stations offer Capacity Factor of 95 per cent compared to wind turbine according to AEMO 30-35 per cent. There is a cost involved in stand by mode awaiting wind.
* Consider the enormous land area required for commercial wind and solar installations, cost of owning or leasing.
* Then the renewable energy technology transmission lines the Albo Labor Government is talking about to improve efficiency of operation and transmission.
50
Why do wind turbines have such short lifespans?
40
There are many sources for explanations, here is one;
https://energyfollower.com/how-long-do-wind-turbines-last/
20
Something to think about, a senior Japanese diplomat who had been stationed in Canberra years ago was asked to comment on his time in Australia for the Australian Financial Review, he said that the location of Canberra concerned him being a long way from the financial centres of Melbourne and Sydney and resulting in government employees and elected members (Prime Minister and Cabinet Ministers) being somewhat isolated from the business world.
I have become aware over decades that too many MPs are not worldly wise, especially regarding private sector business and worse on areas like engineering and other “hands on” occupations and training.
So how do “they” turn coal into electricity? [/sarc]
40
Seriously, there’s not even a reason to include the sarcastic button here.
Just ask that question of any politician, (every single politician, Liberal, Nationals ALP, Greens, and Teal, with perhaps one exception, Matt Canavan) and listen for the “hey, look over there, isn’t that Britney Spears” response.
Not ONE of them is able to explain how to generate electrical power from coal.
Tony.
PostScript – Stand up and place your arms out in front of you at a 90 degree angle. Now imagine someone in front of you doing exactly the same , and the tips of your fingers are touching. Now, fill that gap with coal crushed to the consistency of talcum powder to the top of your skulls. That is one tonne of coal.
A large coal fired Unit of 660MW consumes that amount of coal to generate electrical power at the rate of that much coal every 16 seconds.
That pulverised (powdered) coal is injected into the furnace, which boils water to high pressure high temperature steam. That steam then drives a turbine which then drives a generator which generates electrical power.
Currently, here in Australia, coal fired power has been allowed to stay at three levels of technology lower than the current technology available to everywhere else in the World that is allowed to use that technology.
The current most recent technology consumes coal at almost 30% less than the Australian plants.
110
The electricity is ‘sequestered’ in the coal.
We have to put it back.
Thank you Australia for showing us the way.
(I recently saw a vid clip of Greta leading an enviro protest crowd in a chant …
“STOP EXPLOITING NATURE”
… oh well, no more farming. Hunting and gathering is out too. A brain virus causing stupid is truly the only explanation.)
50
I understand that a couple of years ago Australian guests visited Japan to inspect the latest HELE technology that recycles part of the emissions, not that same technology but similar to a Diesel engine Exhaust Gas Reticulation Valve.
20
That’s not how HELE works.
10
Isogo Power Station Japan
https://spectrum.ieee.org/japans-isogo-power-plant-burnishes-clean-coals-credentials
00
But carbon dioxide isn’t the only environmental worry. To reduce air pollution, J-Power uses a two-stage combustion system and its own multipollutant control technology, which employs activated coke to absorb nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and mercury pollutants from flue gases. Meanwhile, electrostatic precipitators remove soot and dust particles. “Consequently, SOx and NOx emissions are much lower than those of other countries’ coal-fired plants,” says Sasatsu, “almost at the same level of gas-fired plants.”
00
Currently, coal-fired power is delivering 57 percent of our energy, and gas 23 percent, while wind and solar are contributing one-point-nine (1.9) percent. Well done Greens, Labor, Teals, Holmes a’Court, Cannon-Brookes, The Guardian, Turnbull, with a dash of Pocock’s “poppycock”! Your hypocrisy, zealotry, misguided policy and willful ignorance have resulted in our being ridiculed world-wide, and condemned me to being pissed off about being pissed on! As Nick Faldo said many years ago, albeit in another context, “Thanks from the heart of my bottom”!
90
Alternatively , thank you from the bottom of my a***. .
00
Labor RET of +30% commenced 2010-2011, State Labor Governments followed with the privatisation of State public assets power stations and transmission lines, or leased them or even demolished them.
Now in 2022 so called renewable energy from wind and solar installations are nuisances delivering from very little to not much, intermittently.
But Albo Labor say more should have been commissioned, so how does the Labor Government he leads intend to achieve this?
20
Clarke & Dawe – the energy market
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ELaBzj7cn14
5 years old but still relevant 😉
50
More seriously, when will this madness end? Not soon I fear and not soon enough.
We have been through all this stuff before and it still goes on. And now the country has voted and this new government will be out to make a big impression. So they will not admit the folly of renewable, green energy. But we live in hope . .
50
I’m a bit of a politics/current events/history/science nerd … why am I at Jonova? … I kid, I kid.
As much science as a mid-wit right brain type can understand.
I first became aware of ‘woke’ ideology in 2017 hearing of the events at Evergreen college in the US.
The ‘equity’ concept seemed absurd and merely the coffee house musings of a tiny academic fringe.
Now most of the people I associate with, that called it absurd then, now accept it without reservation.
Very much like a new religion.
It is worldwide government policy.
It is proudly promoted by international corporations, and even the US military.
Criticism of the concept is censored.
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/commanders-ron-rivera-explains-jack-del-rio-fine
Spread fast like a highly infectious contagion. Bio-engineered I suspect.
We will live to see it crash Western Civilization.
New Dark Age follows, if not already here.
40
‘The idiocy’ of Australia’s energy crisis is ‘about to get really weird’
30
Well said Chris Kenny, he has nailed it, highlighted the stupidity of our politicians or that they only care about their international political agenda and comrades.
But one point, Labor did not just agree to renewable energy transition, they created the RET and the subsidies for profit now several billions of dollars each and every year of taxpayer’s monies (who happen to be electricity bill payers) to wind and solar installation owners.
00