The core baseload of the European grid is in trouble, and there is no back up. If the rest of Europe had enough coal or nuclear power, this wouldn’t be so bad, but they were all too worried about heatwaves in 2100 they forgot…
Half the French Nuclear Fleet will not be back in time for winter and there is no other nation that fill the gap. | Photo by Spiritrespect.
This is bad news for Europe. Half of France’s nuclear power fleet were already out of action and EDF was hoping to bring “all of them” back online for winter. But they’ve just announced that at least four plants they planned to restart will suffer a major delay. France’s electricity prices have hit €1,000 per MWh for January delivery. (Which is a blockbuster $1,500 AUD).
France’s large nuclear fleet is normally a major exporter of electricity, referred to as the “backbone” of the whole European grid. Blackouts are not only being forecast in France, but there is growing recognition that they are now more likely in the UK too. Where else will this spread?
To make matters worse, a week ago, a pipe ruptured during a safety test at the Civaux plant. This is the same plant where corroded welds were discovered in August last year, but this is “absolutely not a weld that gave way” this time, which sounds ominous. When they shut Civaux down last year, they also shut down another 12 reactors built to the same design — which paradoxically are the newest reactors in the nuclear fleet and only about 20 years old. Such is the urgency, that currently 500 specialist welders are working on these plants, about 100 of those have come from the US and Canada.
Mon Dieu! France Is Heading Toward Winter Blackouts
Javier Blas, Bloomberg
On Thursday night, EDF announced what many had anticipated and feared: lower-than-expected nuclear output in 2022. It told the power market that four reactors expected to come back into service between the middle of this month and early December will be out of commission until the end of January — at least. Several of them won’t restart until the end of February. The electricity shortfall is huge. Currently, French nuclear plants produce less than 30 gigawatts, compared with a 10-year average of nearly 45 GW.
In mid-winter, usually EDF can produce 55-60GW of power, but this winter it may be only 40GW.
Which sparks obvious fears that France won’t have anything to spare at all for the UK:
Dr Paul Dorfman, an associate fellow from the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex told Express.co.uk: “Despite the friendly rhetoric between Sunak and Macron, trying to keep the lights on in Paris, while coping with the broken French nuclear fleet, will take precedence over power supply to the UK – and will mean UK blackouts are much more likely.”
There’s a 20 Gigawatt shortage:
France electricity prices surge past €1,000/MWh as more nuclear reactors close for winter
“The implications are enormous,” [Energy analyst Gerard Reid] noted. “For every 1 degree drop in temperature France needs one extra nuclear power station to provide the power needed to provide heat across the country.
What this means is that on a cold January day France needs circa 45GW of nuclear energy. Yesterday there was only 25GW online.”
— Giles Parkinson, RenewEconomy
Civaux has two 1500 MW units and all up France has 56 reactors. Only ten days ago the French government was saying it was going “cut red tape” so they could build another six, obviously not for this winter, though. Indeed, it’s rather sobering to think, that even with that rush, they’re talking about starting the first new one in May 2027 and expecting to take nearly ten years to get it running.
Civaux, French Nuclear Plant. Photo by Babsy
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At least Germany is keeping its last three nuclear plants running
https://www.euronews.com/2022/10/18/energy-crisis-germanys-scholz-extends-nuclear-power-plants-lifespan-in-snub-to-greens
170
Provided its a mild and windy winter the UK will be fine.if its not mild and it’s not windy then problems will ensue after a couple of days without wind and even a normal cold spell, let alone a prolonged one.
290
What are the chances of it being a mild windy winter Tony.
170
So far it’s been very mild and very windy.so far, but there’s still four winter months to come
190
Beware the East wind.
160
Record warm year to date, every month has been well above average, likely temperatures will nudge 20C in parts of Scotland and SE England in the next few days – it’s mid November!
Can all change suddenly, has in the past.
80
Last winter in Europe was mild and the NAO is running on neutral, so no reason to expect a freezing winter.
60
In the UK the difference between record warm and record cold can be just a few hundred miles in the position of an anticyclone centre. Only a fool tries to guess what the whole of winter will be like.
50
These blocking highs bring a wind drought, which can last for days, not a good look for wind farms.
40
‘So, for now no strong signals have emerged. But I do think that the overall environment supports polar vortex stretching which favors cold in East Asia and eastern North America but mild in Europe.’ (Judah Cohen AER)
40
They are essentially looking to a repeat of the previous winter, a cool December, then mild in January and February.
https://www.voanews.com/a/warmer-than-average-winter-ahead-for-europe-forecaster-says-/6789502.html
The only concern is that blocking could throw a spanner in the works.
50
Once again nature will take care of the poor and politicians will take the credit. Are all our politicians stupid or are they all on the socialist refuse heap hoping they will end up somewhere near the top of the pile when the crunch comes as it always has.
20
November 1978 was very mild until the 25th. Then it was very wet and unpleasant. Then the 26th dawned clear and frosty. It sticks in my memory because of a family occasion.
It was also very mild in mid December 1988; mild and muggy and dull (windless too iirc). We left on the 13th to emigrate to Australia and landed in the high 30s on the 15th with lots of sunshine!
Weather varies from year to year, nothing new
111
Scotland and Northern Ireland both individually had record high minimum temperatures for November last night.
Parts of Scotland were 19C at 9am, although it was getting cooler from then on.
30
but we’ve got all those solar ( PV) panels ….. and they’re “so” good, their owners tell us.
30
It’s not just about seasonal trends. A week or so of extreme cold, as usually happens even in a “mild” winter, will cause enough problems by itself.
40
Lets hope so and let’s hope the good people will sheet the blame to where it belongs not to where the politicians tell them it came from.
20
Good morning Jo,
Keep up the amazing work.
The mid-terms were a sobering reminder of just how much the (alleged) Democrats love to play the Fear Card!
Anyways, hopefully the Republicans are quite a bit more savvy by the time ’24 rolls around (?)
“France: six new neuc’s, the 1st one starting in ’27”
Pretty sure the morally/economic/common-sense bankrupt ruling class get it yet!!
(& I mean most leaders of the OECD. countries, not just Macron!!)
But it shouldn’t be long now!!
Somewhere between one to five million deaths due to extreme cold, either this winter or next, should do the trick!
I’m deeply sorry to sound so calous, but it starts getting a little bit de-re-gur when non-moronic people like you & me Jo have been banging on about this for almost 15 years now!! 🙁 🙁
Warm regards, reformed warmist of Logan
430
It is pure man made trouble.
Totally planned for “great reset”.
331
Its a paradox. I would presume that the French, in general, are not thrilled with the state of their power grid, and probably realize that it is critical to their civilized economy, but nonetheless kept in power those that have mismanaged the situation into the current FUBAR mess. So with the US, where at least 35% of those supporting incumbents were very dissatisfied about one or more key issues.
We are now doing a rather large experiment on how big the problems have to get before the brain fog lifts and the electors choose competence. History does not permit much optimism, although the view from Florida is better than most…..
Europe may keep most folks from dying this winter; there are options available if one is willing to spend enough and compromise enough. If the heat is made available for most, but not for the new immigrant populations, there could be a different kind of trouble than we’ve seen recently, but the general self-segregation practiced makes this possible.
It is hard to see how Europe keeps its industry; one can imagine several countries with coal reserves might on a warlike footing save most and get ready for next winter bu telling their greens to pound sand; doubt the will for this but a bad enough winter……
I went back and reread the story of Napoleon’s march into and retreat from Russia. The continent can be a truly unforgiving mistress.
There is always the spectre of Putin turning on the gas again, and what that might cost.
No matter which way out is chosen, when you’ve painted yourself into a corner, no matter which way you head out you’ll get paint on your feet.
290
Richard:
It wasn’t Putin who shut down the gas.
Firstly Germany (and the EU) refused to allow Nordstream 2 to start. Then they started the “do without Russian gas” idea along with “not going to pay for it”. Then someone blew holes in the 2 Nordstream (1) pipelines and one of the Nordstream 2 pipelines. Recently Putin suggested gas could be supplied through the remaining pipeline and was rejected.
Meanwhile Russian gas has been flowing in the 2 pipelines through Ukraine. The only times Russian gas has been cut off is when countries stopped paying for it and when Finland joined NATO and its pipeline was shut down (by Putin).
300
yes, and considering ( as is lovingly reported in the MSM) that we are at war with Russia, could you have imagined mr hitler providing us with fuel and food ……… It seems we have this expectation that we SHOULD still be trading as normal with the “Eastern Bloc” despite the war. Just doesn’t all add up. Europe wants to have its Cake and eat it.
90
“could you have imagined mr (AH) providing us with fuel and food ………”
There are some interesting parallels to the proxy conflict currently going on in Eastern Europe and the beginnings of the Asia/Pacific confict in the late 1930’s. When Mao and Chiang Kai Shek colluded to initiate the Marco Polo Bridge Incident to the drive the Japanese out of Continental Asia, they unexpectly lost the all the early battles. Particularly the Battle of Shanghai which was fought from Aug. through Novemeber, 1937. By December 1937 the Chinese had been thoroughly defeated. The Japanese offered peace terms to Chiang if he would join the Anti-Communist Pact of 1936 but he refused.
The reason for Chiang’s refusal and what was keeping the war going was the western democracies support of Chiang and Mao, using them as proxies as means to bring the Japanese to heel. They were supplying arms and supplies and fuel to Mao and Chiang through Haiphong harbor. Also Soviet Russia joined in supplying arms and war materials to Chiang and Mao overland.
But the west also continued to supply fuel to the Japanese as means of leverage to get the Japanese to comply- by the threat of cutting it off. The sanctions of most goods against Japan were increased but the fuel kept flowing, at least for time being.
When Germany over ran Western Europe in May 1940, this opened the door for the Japanese to take over the colonies of the French and the Dutch in South East Asia with the oil and other raw materials of those colonies. This led the Japanese to join with Germany and Italy in the Axis alliance and to secure an non aggression pact with Russia during Sept. 1940, so they could move toward South East Asia, breaking the stangle hold the western democracies were putting on them regarding the war in China. By occupying French Indo China in 1941, they cut access to Haiphong Harbor, and they could cut off the secondary supply route; the Burma Road, as well.
This caused FDR and the Dutch Government in Exile to cut off the flow of fuel to Japan. But this represented a existential crisis to the Japanese Navy. Rather than knuckle under the Japanese expanded the war.
60
Not so fast.
Situation is still the same. Putin didn’t cut off natural gas deliveries, Gazprom did. Reason for that was Finland’s refusal to pay in rubles. Natural gas covered ca 7% of energy consumption in Finland. Almost all came from Russia. I don’t know how big NG’s percentage is at the moment, but I believe it is less than 7.
That transition went smoothly as if it was a planned move.
[Found in the Bin. – LVA]
30
The genie is trying to escape the lamp in Florida. There are young brainwashed activists working to get Florida onto the righteous path.
https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/environment/2022-02-12/florida-to-set-goals-for-100-renewable-energy-by-2050-but-will-it-actually-happen
150
We are an easy barge trip from the refineries in LA. We have a disproportionate number of folks on fixed incomes. They vote. Our coal plants converted to multi fuel (rather than being blown up) and unless my eyes deceive me the one near me maintain a goodly pile just in case supplies of other fuels are disrupted, and maintains its unit coal train in good condition. Subsidized solar is being added to the mix, but it is modestly practical here providing power at peak air conditioning hours, not yet displacing dispatch power. We have had a series of technically aware governors. Fried lost badly in the primary; her opposition was swamped in the general. Some Students at USF walked out at the beginning of classes this fall when the dorm AC failed. The States of the Confederacy have ample fuel and transportation and moderate winters; a state compact to avoid energy poverty is on the table. Another is under discussion in the west among the goal and gas producers who would be easily self-sufficient but for the massive exports to California.
It is likely we will soon face the discussion of whether the federal government can force states to “share” energy with other states in need, at below market prices, even if this mean they cannot satisfy the needs of their own residents. The Euro zone is likely to have similar discussions.
For many years wealthy states (New York, Germany) have complained about wealth sharing with poorer neighbors, in spite of the money coming back in trade. This will be more direct; Will energy producers Like Wyoming or Oregon be forced to curtail their businesses or homes to help out California? In an unremarked corollary the ‘cloud’ currently uses about twice the energy of Japan 24/7 and many site are colocated with cheap power; hydro in the northwest US. What might happen if cloud power is threatened? do they have the political clout to be protected?
50
“I went back and reread the story of Napoleon’s march into and retreat from Russia. The continent can be a truly unforgiving mistress.”
Ah, the natural weather before AGW.
The glaciers were advancing.
Good times.
Make Europe unforgiving again.
Choose life, renounce carbon.
110
As a tin exploring geologist in another life, I was interested in the story that the freezing conditions in Russia caused tin buttons of Napoleon’s troops to disintegrate. A “caught with your pants down” experience. Here is waronline’s take:
“At the time the French often used tin buttons on their uniforms, but they weren’t aware back then that tin can come in many different allotropes, some of which are unable to properly deal with extremely low temperatures. An allotrope is a different form of an element in the same state. For example, diamonds, coal, and graphite are all allotropes of carbon. Each of these is made up of carbon atoms, but the atoms are arranged differently from one another, creating materials with different properties.
Similarly, tin has a number of allotropes, and this could have been a big problem for Napoleon’s troops. Tin’s two primary allotropes are alpha-tin and beta-tin. Alpha-tin is a brittle, powdery, dull-gray material that has little use for anything.
Meanwhile, beta-tin is a bright silver metallic material that is malleable and can be easily shaped. However, if beta-tin is exposed to temperatures below 13°C for extended periods of time, it degrades into alpha-tin and quite literally turns to dust. This is known as “tin pest.”
The French used beta-tin as it can be hammered into shape to produce neat, shiny buttons for their uniforms, but they were likely unaware that it can spontaneously transform to alpha-tin in low temperatures. Under normal circumstances, the tin buttons would have held up just fine, but when it was exposed to the extremely cold Russian winter (which reached as low as -40°C) for long periods of time, tin pest may have damaged the metal.
As the tin buttons turned to dust the French troops would have been unable to keep their coats sealed, and therefore would have been vulnerable to the brutal temperatures seen during the winter.
Napoleon’s army had also been ravaged by disease, starvation, desertion, and death at the time of their retreat, so it’s not like the unsuitable buttons were solely to blame.”
210
Not all the buttons disintegrated. There is Frenchman I know who has made a fortune from the buttons of Napoleons troops. Apparently the soldiers would draw/ paint/ engrave scenes from battles on the buttons and they were/are worth heaps and heaps. He had been collecting buttons from youth and one day found himself sitting on a fortune in buttons!
40
Typhus was Napoleon’s big problem. French, German and Polish troops were largely incapacitated by it. The Withdrawal from Russia in 1812 claimed many lives through cold hunger and disease. No joke.
30
exhaustion and physical injury too. I recall reading that exhumed soldiers often had damage to their spines attributed to the extremely heavy loads they had to carry, plus the very long daily marches.
30
If only there was a country that raised the middle finger to the UN and just kept doing what they knew was right for their country, we could then compare them with the plight of the rest of the world.
420
Frekin brilliant idea!
I have two middle fingers for the cause.
60
Didn’t the Flemish part of Belgium just vote to be done with the WEF?
It’s about time these unelected ‘elites’ were told to stop being so impertinant as to suppose they know best for the rest of us.
110
Unfortunately,we are governed by”Imbeciles”Both lib/nats and leibor/greens have members of the WEF,but they keep it on the QT.
20
Back in the day of properly designed power generators and grids power outages were unheard of except for weather events like power lines bought down by trees or local random transformer failures.
There was always enough spare capacity to cope with unexpected events at real power stations.
This is why politicians and Leftists shouldn’t be allowed to make engineering decisions.
520
Say brang down by trees or maybe insert an apostrophe.
27
Brought down…
40
Question… where did the trees get the financing ! ? 😉
30
hmm.. didn’t think that through
They obviously used carbon certificates. 🙂
30
Bough down? Extra t does it every time
20
David, Qld. has a Professional Engineers Act which should exclude politicisns from making engineering decisions. However, the government owns most of the companies generating electricity. The government can make decisions on the payment of dividends, capital expenditure even major maintenance. Qld has plenty of power if properly run but the government is playing politics. Hopefully, the government will change at the next election.
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China’s 2023 thermal coal contract price for internal production will remain the same as 2022 – CNY700/t. That translates to CNY114/MWh of heating value or around CNY280/MWh for wholesale electricity generation. That is AUD60/MWh. About what Victorian consumers paid before the “free” “renewable” energy was added to the grid.
Good luck with any German manufacturer in competition with any Chinese manufacturer.
220
AGAIN why did we start down this dangerous path in 1990?
We were living in the safest period for Humans EVER and yet we’ve chosen to do everything possible to cause severe shortages of energy while all the data proves they were always wrong about their fanatical BELIEFs?
Why didn’t we taken more notice of Ehrlich and the mad Malthusian’s STUPID forecasts ( in 1970) of global hunger from 1980s and then be more prepared to ignore these post 1988 delusional, extreme forecasts?
AGAIN, here’s Eschenbach’s article listing all of their so called icons of CLIMATE EMERGENCY and of course their loony message is just more BS and FRAUD.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/25/wheres-the-emergency/
180
It’s not an emergency, it’s an IQ test. And we as a society are failing.
Unfortunately, you, I and everyone here are forced to suffer the ridiculous submergence, chained to the sinking corpse of the executed economy.
70
Meanwhile here in Australia Dan is pushing ahead with the early closure of all VICs coal fired generators, and Liddell & Eraring are set to close in NSW in the next few years. With no baseload replacement whatsoever.
As an engineer I continue to be lost for words over the utter idiocy that has gripped so many. What is astounding is that there appears nobody with a brain in their head. Power system engineers always allowed for adequate capacity and backup, but this, like with the arrival of covid and the removal of the decades prepped pandemic plan, is now “old thinking” and our new woke leaders simply have no idea.
Nothing good can come of this at all.
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Including those who should know better like engineers and scientists in positions of authority who know the truth but who are unwilling to speak out.
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Dave
This is a feature of Leftist regimes where lying becomes institutionalised, at all levels of society
Solzhenitsyn had it best “The govt is lying, we know the govt is lying, they know we know they are lying, but the govt still lies”
A key feature of Christian moral code which is the bedrock or our legal and moral systems is to tell the truth. We have so many bureaucrats and others for whom this is not longer believed necessary. A rigid adherence to utterly unworkable ideology is paramount.
Again, nothing good will come of this.
200
There’s no money in not lying.
60
There’s a small chance it could be a learning experience.
30
An Al Gore quote:
Gore obviously directed that quote at baby-boomer parents, of which I am one. But I can hypothesize that in the future, it will be generation Alpha (my grandkids) asking the same question of the middle generation (my kids and their parents) as our hard-gained standard of living and once reliable electricity network is trashed on an implausible crusade.
220
Meanwhile
Lithium battery explodes, injuring 20
Fire investigator: Electric bicycle’s lithium battery likely caused fire that injured 20 people.
While in Mosman – EV Buyers show they have No Brains
Electric car drivers in one of Australia’s richest suburbs are banned from running ‘dangerous’ charging cables across the footpath – but owners of the pricey vehicles are not happy
. Owners of electric cars asked to stop running power cords across the footpath
. Drivers in Mosman slammed for ‘dangerous’ charging solutions on social media
. Electric car owners forced to run extension cords through trees and across paths
. Mosman council has advised drivers to use one of three fast charging stations
200
Where will the Electricity come from?
Zoom Meetings Are Coming to a Tesla Near You
Many of us are living in a remote work world now, which means we now sit through endless video meetings instead of piling into boardrooms. Tesla hopes to turn your car into another meeting space, announcing that Zoom would soon come to its EVs’ infotainment systems.
The teaser video from Drive Tesla Canada shows a person using the feature while charging their Tesla, allowing them to make use of otherwise dead time. Sure, being connected to work at all times is unhealthy and annoying, but for some people, it’s impossible to avoid.
130
Yes Old Ozzie these EVs are another extreme curse on our way of life.
I tried to explain this recently but the EV’s owners just stared at me in amazement and asked ” didn’t I care about the future of the planet and we’ve got to do our bit”? DUH?
I tried to explain to them that they’re making everything worse for the environment and we’re now living in the best of times. But they continued to rave on about our terrible floods etc, so I just left them to their clueless ideas about their fantasy world.
310
These green idiots have enough money to buy an EV but not enough brains to plan how to charge it
290
The houses dont have space for a car, so they have to park in the street… but I totally agree, it’s crazy to run extension cords onto a public thoroughfare.
The same suburb was in the news recently because a lot of boat owners were taking up car parking spaces with their boats…
30
Here’s Dr Spencer’s latest findings on the USA Urban Heat Island Effect. He finds that the USA warming is about 50% too high when the UHIE is calculated.
Here’s his summary and the link.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2022/11/de-urbanization-of-surface-temperatures-with-the-landsat-based-built-up-dataset/
“Summary and Conclusions”
“There is much more I could show, but from the analysis I’ve done so far I believe that the Landsat-based “Built-Up” (urbanization) dataset, which extends back to the 1970s, will be be useful for “de-urbanizing” land-based surface temperature datasets, in the U.S. as well as in other countries. The methodology outlined here is straightforward and the regression statistics are robust (the regression coefficients are all significant, at the 3-sigma level or better).
The urbanization effect on surface temperature trends for August at 09 UTC (near the time of daily minimum temperature) results in a 50% reduction in those trends over the last 50 years. From some preliminary looks I have had at the data from other months and times of day I’d say this will likely be the upper limit of de-urbanization adjustments. So, it is likely that trends in daytime temperature near the time of the daily maximum will not be reduced nearly as much as 50%.
But given the fact that all CMIP6 climate models produce U.S. summer temperature trends greater than the NOAA observations means the discrepancy between climate models and observations is even larger than currently suspected by many of us. John Christy and I believe it is time for a new surface temperature dataset, and the methodology outlined above looks like a viable approach to that end”.
150
Trouble is, even a lot of so-called “rural” sites are affected by local warming.
Buildings, tarmac, town expansion etc etc..
But they are, in reality, just a tiny spec in the countryside.
40
You get the feeling that all the administrators of these energy grids worldwide are just going to tell a pack of lies to somehow mollify the people in their countries. Same here in Australia. Then when the blackouts occur ( sorry, rolling controlled outages ) all sorts of crazy reasons will be used in a blame game. So, here’s a possible list of whacky replies in press conferences. It will all be the fault of…… :-
– Unreliable coal
– Putins / Ukraine conflict
– Previous administration/ government
– Profit hungry energy/oil companies
– Lack of investment in renewables
– other states or countries in shared grids
– Saudi Arabia/Qatar/OPEC
– COVID
Then the biggest copout of all, when we are huddled around our candles and eating cold food, will be “well this is the price we ALL have to pay for climate change”.
150
Solutions:
Solar panels.
NiFe batteries (don’t burn, 100 yr old tech)
Solar/LPG hot water.
Off grid is uninterruptible power supply.
Welcome to my life.
20
you forgot the LNP… everything is the fault of the “extreme right wing” LNP, no matter how long Labor have been in power…
40
Flinders Island Renewable Energy Scheme on 99% diesel.
180
It’s an interesting point of view. Global Warming hell fire promoters pushing carbon indulgences are delighted with the collapse of the energy supply. They say it will accelerate the switch to solar and wind. That does not even make sense.
However it could and should promote a mad rush to nuclear, which is benefiting greatly from the demonization of the element Carbon. The fact that nuclear has been allowed to rust in Europe is a salutary lesson for Green governments. Freezing and starving are the two elements of every revolution, historically France and Russia. Which is why the WEF will be cheering their Great Reset.
And China is cheering too as they are buying every spare reserve of coal and oil and you have to ask why. And the last thing China or the EU or WEF wants are conservative governments determined to feed the people and keep them warm through winter. Even Biden has run down the strategic reserve and is determined to stop oil completely.
It cannot end well, but this winter in Europe will be the test for Wind and Solar. The problem with nothing is that when you double it, you still have nothing. And wind and solar are useless 70% of the time. French and German nuclear has allowed them to pretend, like Coal in Australia.
The Greens could suffer a catastrophic collapse politically as they bear the blame for the disasters which are more likely than not, especially as the world is actually cooling rapidly now.
190
What I suggest may happen with Green extremism is that people hit with inflation, energy prices, lack of food will become completely intolerant of people making their lives harder. The picture of the well meaning caring Green will be replaced with the image of the enemy of all humanity, which is closer to the truth.
200
TdeF, I suggest the greens will simply say the cooling is due the actions taken against CO2. They will avoid saying ‘due to the fall of atmospheric CO2 conc., because it was reported to be the highest (‘ever’ since recordings……) in 2021.
20
For at least the last 6 months for the majority of the time the UK/France interconnector has been supplying France, often 3GW.
Last winter or the one before (can’t remember exactly) when the UK came close to running short one cold still winter morning, the interconnector was shut off and France gave us nothing.
140
I think they were still butt hurt about Brexit.
110
Ronin,
We’re still perturbed about Calais.
That was as recently as 1545.
Queen Mary.
The lady who gave her name to a Cocktail, ‘Bloody Mary’.
Auto
20
King island hybrid system a few minutes ago about 90% DIESEL, but does fluctuate wildly and wind from 3% to 30% and Solar about 3%.
What a stupid, sick joke.
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
190
King Island was always 100% diesel, it’s now down to 35%, saving them a ton of money.
26
Yes, it saves money.. if you don’t add in all the cost of the infrastructure….. but where would they be without that diesel.?!
You HAVE to have something that is reliable and able to produce 100% of your electricity, so basically you need two supply systems.
You MUST maintain that 100% no-wind diesel back-up…. always.
So there goes any savings !
150
Diesel engines like to work and when they were the sole provider of electricity, they worked steadily, now that unreliables have been unwisely inserted into the grid, the diesels have to run up and down following the load and at times are mostly unloaded, a bad situation to find themselves in.
50
But what are the averages of a full year? Any other figures are surely cherry-picking, for which we rightly criticise alarmists.
60
To Australia’s detriment, this will give our Weather and Energy Minister evidence that Nuclear is the most expensive form of energy provision in the world.
As he has told us, ‘the sun doesn’t send households a bill’. Though to balance that, I don’t recall receiving a black smudged bill from a piece of coal, and I would not anticipate a piece of uranium having the capacity to write and mail a bill to me either.
110
That’s on a par with former Victorian Labor Premier Steve Bracks’s statement that ‘dams don’t make water’. Duh.
Perhaps he could then explain what dams do and why?
Clearly our education system is a failure if he thought this made sense.
As a primary school teacher, Steve Bracks taught physical education, swimming not logic.
And you have to wonder at the education system when someone can be the ‘weather’ minister. What an area of responsiblity?
Government policy on the weather? That’s religion, not meteorology.
Chris Bowen has a Bachelor of Economics, the dismal art. It would not even make him an accountant but he is now in charge of Australia’s weather and power stations. It’s an odd world when these things have common logic.
What about a minister for hell fire and damnation? Same logic. Carbon not sulphur.
180
Besides, it all makes a bit of sense. If you can control the weather you do not need dams because you control the rain. And you can call up wind when you need power. And drought does not exist. Plus the sun can shine every day and the wind and rain can be scheduled just in time for the nights, but not weekends. Climate Fantasy is now a government ministerial role. Druids.
120
Superstition is popular amongst idiots.
50
All things considered, it really couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. Two of the biggest exporters of electrical power in Europe – France and Ukraine – can now no longer even keep their own needs met, let alone export power to other countries.
And it’s all their own fault!
Meanwhile in Russia, people leave their kitchen stoves running non stop as a cheap way to heat their apartments, and it costs them about $1.40 per month!
150
‘ … and it costs them about $1.40 per month!’
Marx would be impressed.
60
And in the coldest Russian cities of -70C, they never turn the cars off in winter.
120
I would love to know what the price of electricity is in Russia and whether Russia is able to generate electricity cheaper than Western countries. And the same goes for China. Then if it is cheaper, which I suspect it is, have a look at how much of their Electrical Generated Power comes from Solar and Windmills and how much comes from Nuclear, Coal, Gas and Hydro.
Maybe Albo and Bowen could go on an Overseas Fact Finding Mission and just stay out of the Country. For ever.
70
6 months old data but…
1 litre unleaded petrol $0.90 USD
1kw electricity (domestic) $0.079 USD
30,000 kWh/yr natural gas (domestic) $0.009 USD
70
Should be:
30,000 kWh/yr natural gas (domestic) $0.009 USD per kWh
60
In 2019 Lomborg and Dr Christy shredded the extremist’s climate alarmism.
This is another version of Eschenbach’s article and including no HOT SPOT above the equator at all.
But there are many links in this short study to support their claims.
https://cei.org/blog/bjorn-lomborg-and-john-christy-shred-climate-alarmism/
120
John Christy said, accurately:
“any thermal forcing should elicit a response such as the “expected” hot spot.”
(http://www.climatedialogue.org/the-missing-tropical-hot-spot/#comment-754)
So “no hot spot” merely means that his hot-spot-free model is faulty.
116
No.. The hot spot doesn’t exist.. Your logic is totally faulty.
A hot-spot-free model “could” be correct.
One that creates an imaginary “hot spot” is demonstrably WRONG.
110
Wrong Vince. No hot-spot means there is no positive feedback amplifying the effect of CO2. Instead of 3.5C even the IPCC scientists models would predict 1.2C. That’s the direct effect of CO2 doubling — as predicted by them. And if those feedbacks are negative instead of hugely positive, the warming by extra CO2 will be even less.
The IPCC modelers called the hotspot a fingerprint 76 times in one report in 2006, and in the same report they showed quietly that there was no hotspot — as measured by 28 million balloons.
They’ve spent the last 20 years trying to rehash the same weatherballoon data to find the damn hotspot but they can’t. If they had the honesty to admit their model assumptions were wrong on this one point, there would be no catastrophe left.
No one has written more about the missing hot spot than I have.
290
John Christy also said the models have it wrong, its a sensitivity issue.
‘The models’ response to carbon dioxide is twice what we see in the real world. So the evidence indicates the consensus range for climate sensitivity is incorrect.’
70
Is there a valid, tested and repeatable sensitivity graph for
the atmospheric warming effect of changing concentrations of CO2.? I read an article around 2000 that said at the time that the biggest effect of CO2 occurred at concentrations around that required to stimulate respiration in respiring animals. After that the ‘dose response curve’ became almost horizontal ie little further response. Then there’s that graph presented weeks ago in this blog that showed [CO2]atm has fallen from 2500ppm over 150m years to around 400ppm currently.
If I wanted to create a fear campaign, I would say we face a respiring creature wipe-out on the planet if that fall was to continue (don’t mention the long time frame). CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere is essential to save the human race! To do the greens bidding is to speed up a creature extinction event – ours. The planet loves CO2. Look at the greening seen from space, and how many people it now feeds. (sarc)
So easy to make fear campaigns on anything these days! All it takes is to create a population devoid of curiosity and limited knowledge base. Creates naivety, dependence and brains open to manipulation to believe anything, especially if the power brokers convince people they are too bright to be easily misled.
20
Umm, that Civaux Nuclear power plant that Joanne mentions in her text.
It has two Units.
Each Unit is a 1500MW generator. (turbo alternator) So, here we have a Nameplate of 3000MW.
The largest wind plant in Australia is Stockyard Hill. The generators on top of the poles are each 3.57MW. There are 149 ‘poles with fans’ so a Nameplate of 530MW.
So just to equal the nameplate of Civaux, you’ll need 7 Stockyard Hill wind plants. Take the Capacity Factor into account and multiply by three, and the ‘Nuke’ has double (well more really, but double will suffice) the lifespan so now double that.
So, all up just to equal the output from this one Nuclear power plant, you would need 42 Stockyard Hill wind plants.
But wait, there’s more.
The spread of those 42 wind plants means 42 extra Transmission line infrastructure as well, and instead of one site with two units for maintenance , you now have 6258 units on top of skyscraper height poles to work on in confined spaces with hazard pay etc. Land acquisition for the huge area encompassed by 42 wind plants, and on and on and on.
But hey, renewables are soooooo cheap, eh!
Tony.
320
“But hey, renewables are soooooo cheap, eh!”
Yes, they are very cheap.
Renewable electricity is less than 30% the price of nuclear electricity.
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2021/csiro-report-confirms-renewables-still-cheapest-new-build-power-in-australia
132
Yet everywhere that there is a significant infection of “renewables”…. the price of electricity is sky high.
Just because you don’t understand the mechanisms that cause this massive price hike due to renewables… doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist !
CSIRO is among the leaders of the “cult” that pushes that extra expense onto the rest of society.
180
Rubbish! Just quoting the CSIRO data appears to indicate the correct FCOE costing method, which compares all energy sources over the longer lifetimes of coal, gas and nuclear, hasn’t been used.
When energy source costs are correctly compared over these longer lifetimes, SMR nuclear comes out at half the cost of solar and wind.
150
Renewables are a bit like buying a car back in the day, with an asterisk under the ad saying ( + Sales Tax, dealer delivery and on road costs)
100
In the CSIRO report 2020-2021, the most direct visualization is “Figure 5-3 Levelised costs of achieving 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% variable renewable energy shares in the NEM, NSW, VIC and QLD in 2030” on page 58 of the report.
What you see is that in every single case, higher VRE percentage maps to higher cost per unit of electrical energy.
That is to say more renewables (VRE means Variable renewable energy shares) means more expensive electricity … in your own report that you linked to … presumably you did read the report.
More interesting is that CSIRO produced a followup report 2021-2022 which also has a similar chart, “Figure 5-2 Levelised costs of achieving 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% annual variable renewable energy shares in NEM and WA in 2030” on page 56. This report was produced only one year after the earlier report and yet if you compare one with the other:
In 2020-2021 they were predicting that 60% VRE (overall NEM) could be achieved at a cost of $50 per MWh (i.e. 5c per kWh) wholesale by the year 2030.
In 2021-2022 they shifted this prediction that the same 60% VRE (overall NEM) would now require a cost of $65 per MWh (i.e. 6.5c per kWh) wholesale by year 2030.
That’s a big price hike, 30% per annum, and yes I get it there have been supply dirsuptions, money printing, and plenty of inflation on the producer side, especially fuels … I get it, and they admit this in the second report.
Even considering all of that … if costs can jump by 30% in one year … why should this be taken seriously for year 2030?
There’s also some weird stuff happening with their storage cost calculation. If you check Table B.4 on page 71 (of the 2020-2021 report) it says battery storage for 1 hour costs $789 per kWh in 2020 and then this falls down to $576 per kWh by 2030 as battery technology is expected to improve. Strangely if you store the electricity for 2 hours this is reduced significantly down to $529 per kWh in 2020 dropping to $367 per kWh … that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me … why would it get cheaper to hold the power for longer? Maybe this relates to the rating on the DC/AC conversion electronics? I dunno, don’t have enough time to spend on it, but perhaps Tony wants to go through these reports with a fine tooth comb.
They also claim batteries will last 20 years or regular cyclic usage … I strongly doubt it, never seen a car battery last 20 years, nor any power tool. I think these guys are kidding themselves on that one.
40
Hi Tony,
I think you’ll find that wind’s capacity factor is less than our 30 percent max., so that’s even more “turbines”.
Now let’s add the battery storage.
Presume, being an engineer, that we have to look at the worst case wind drought, and double it – standard engineering practice. I’m saying a minimum wind drought of 5 days, so 10 days margin as a minimum.
So, 3000 MW times 24 hours times 10 days – a minimum storage requirement of 720,000 MWh.
From memory, the Geelong Big Battery has a storage maximum of 450 MWh.
720,000 divided by 450 gives how many Geelong Big Batteries? I make it 1600 Geelong Bog Batteries.
And that’s a minimum requirement.
Others might argue, as the recent Finnish study did, that a month’s storage is the requirement.
And that’s for just one power station.
Need we say more?
Best regards,
Paul
160
how many Geelong Big Batteries? I make it 1600 Geelong Bog Batteries.
How Much for Fire Engines?
120
….and as i recall the cost of the Geelong battery was around $400 million ?
..so 1600 x 400 =$ 640,000 million….$640 Billion !
Just for the batteries to support the wind equivalent of just one Nuclear generator ( cost ..$10 bn ? )
40
Tony, I did an area/ turbine calculation for a number of Victorian Wind installs. They were Mt Mercer, Waubra, Macarthur, Challicum Hills (Ararat),Bald Hills (Tarwin Lower), Murra Warra Proposed (Horsham), Moorabool Wind Farm Proposed (south of Ballan). The average area occupied by one of those wind towers equalled 39.94 ha when you add in buffer zones etc. This ties up pretty well with overseas stats as well. Which means those 6258 towers you mention would occupy, 6258 x 40 (39.94 rounded off) = 25032 ha, which equals around 2500 km2. (100 ha per km 2). Which is an area 50 km x 50km. Whats the footprint of a nuclear reactor? Probably lucky to be 1 km2, maybe 10km2 with buffer zones. Not only is nuclear cheaper in the long run, it’s also much more environmentally benign.
100
You couldn’t make this stuff up. I just had 2 Jehovah’s Witnesses at the door asking me why the world is in such a mess today?
I asked them to tell me about their so called mess and they listed the terrible floods and Ukraine and lack of morals today etc.
I told them we’re in this mess because we listened and then voted for delusional left wing idiots who told lies about our world today and we in turn didn’t ask them to prove their stupid claims.
They seemed confused by the time I finished and they were on their way.
I wasn’t rude but told them I knew all about their Joh WIT origins from Russell and Rutherford etc and all the later con merchants since those earlier times.
But the looks on their face was well worth the few minutes of my time.
180
I do love it when they visit, but they don’t seem to come to my house anymore…
80
And ditto for me KP. Their last visit was about 10 months ago and not much luck for them then either.
But I enjoyed telling them about their history and the weird end of times predictions that all failed over a long period of time.
The last big one was in 1975 and evidently a lot of their members started to have doubts after that time.
The entire religion was always a con from the start and yet most of the believers stayed on and handed over a lot of money during their lives.
80
One of the downfalls of the Age of Machines and the rise of science, made possible by the Reformation and the resulting creation of secular thought, is arrogance created by this success causing us to dismiss the power of religion.
We failed to realize a new religion was being birthed right in our midst.
We’re having a secular discussion about engineering and rational deduction.
The priests have rebranded themselves and stolen away our children and most of our friends and I doubt if there is anything we can do.
Most will consider freezing and poverty the righteous necessity of piety.
And wave at the private jets as the fly over to the next climate conference.
If the power is on they might watch a Leonardo DiCaprio movie.
500 years in the future there will churches with a statue of George Floyd on the alter, and photos of Saints Hansen, Mann, and Greta.
140
We have a Federal Minister of Climate Change and Energy. Let that sink in.
180
You Forgot – New Ambassador for Climate Change
© Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water
New Ambassador for Climate Change
9 November 2022
Ms Kristin Tilley has been announced as Australia’s Ambassador for Climate Change.
This role has been reinstated to demonstrate to the world Australia’s resolve to urgently step up the pace of action, and work alongside global partners, particularly in the Pacific, to tackle the climate crisis.
Ms Tilley was most recently a First Assistant Secretary at the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, with over 10 years’ experience with international and domestic climate change policy and programs.
The Australian Government thanks former Ambassador for the Environment Mr Jamie Isbister for his contribution to Australia’s engagement on international environment and climate change issues since 2019.
Ms Tilley is part of Australia’s delegation to the 27th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP27) in Egypt.
Download our organisation chart (effective 1 November 2022)
Office of Supply Chain Resilience
Kristin Tilley
Head of Division
90
Yes, it’s unbelievable. A Climate Crisis no less. The sky is falling. We are living in the world of Chicken Little. I always thought this parable, this age old story of panic and gullibility was absurd. Now it’s real.
60
Probably hoping a gaggle of economic migrants wont like the cold and go back from whence they came?
50
Interesting perspective, but unfortunately a mild winter would put an end to those hopes.
40
Penguinite,
That’s not a hope, that’s a problem on a global scale.
The current migration pattern from Left Leaning idealists in colder, more settled white communities shows that one cold Winter removes more than fifty percent of them, to warmer climes.
The question therefore isn’t would a majority of the former Native Colonialists of the Middle East want to go home, the question is how?
They would demand free flights to a destination of their choice, into the Middle East.
How would this even work?
Also, no female attendants, no pork, no alcohol, a designated prayer space during the flight and a Middle Eastern flight crew.
Alternatively, book them on Saudi Air and pay the bus fare to wherever, from Jeddah.
Should that not work out, expect near immediate retaliation and unreasonable demands to rectify their situation, to their expectations.
Also, contrary to popular belief, the Spanish Inquisition was a long time in the coming, very obvious in it’s process, and only affected those who were Catholics, or who converted.
The rest of those people declared “unwelcome” who did not want to convert, and who were summarily declined further, or any citizenship, were given assisted passage back to the Middle East.
I would not expect things to go quite as smoothly, this time around.
30
Time to get off unreliable nuclear then and expensive coal then.
Renewables are key to getting electricity prices down again:
“The ACT will cut electricity prices this year, bucking a trend of soaring power bills for the rest of Australia, as the territory benefits from long-term contracts that locked in low-cost renewable energy.
Electricity prices will rise by as much as 18% from July in parts of the national electricity market after wholesale prices increased 49% in Queensland and 41% in NSW, the Australian Energy Regulator said last month when it released default market prices for the 2022-23 year.
The Coalition didn’t do much on nuclear energy while in office. Why are they talking about it now?
Read more
Long-term contracts devised by the ACT government to enable it to reach 100% renewable energy have served to shield its energy users from the higher prices faced by other regions.
The ACT’s deputy chief minister and energy minister, Shane Rattenbury, said average household bills for this coming financial year would be about $800 lower than those in neighbouring NSW.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/06/island-in-the-energy-price-storm-renewables-help-act-cut-power-costs
131
Good to see you back!
120
You have another companion in “not knowing or understanding” 🙂
20
Odd, isn’t it?
Electricity prices have increased off the chart in recent years.
Coal fired power plants have ….. closed in recent years.
More and more renewables have been ‘installed’ in ….. recent years.
Most people who can use their own brains (as opposed to those who have other people ‘tell’ them how to use their brains) can, umm, work out those three statements.
Oh, and again people using their own brains have noticed that in recent times, little by little by little by little, there have been media articles about the need for natural gas reform for gas fired power, the re-opening of coal fired power plants in other places around the World, the unreliablity of renewables etcetera etcetera etcetera. All small little dribbles making it acceptable for the final statement coming sooner than you might think ….. “It would seem that we need that coal fired power after all.”
But hey, all of that’s just for those of us who can use our own brains.
About the only thing you could tell us off the top of your head, (without someone telling you) is the price of a tube of superglue!
Lucky that guardian news site you referenced is a free site, eh. (that’s the site you asked your handler to send you the link to)
Ho Hum!
Two nuclear powered turbine/generators ….. 6,258 wind turbines. Same delivered power, well sort of anyway. The nuclear power is there ALL the time, the wind power, well, you never really know, eh. I’d tell you to look it up, but you probably wouldn’t know how, so here’s a helpful link for you.
There, that should solve your attention span problem.
Tony.
330
Tell that to the Germans and the UK.
The only things that make unreliable renewables cheap are subsidies, phony cost accounting for transmission lines, backup power, frequency and voltage regulation costs, replacement, demolition, etc. Anything can be made to appear cheap if someone else is paying for all of its faults.
We used to have reliable, 24/7/365, power for $30 to $50 / MWH. But with the imposition of Wind and Solar, prices of $1000 / MWH with peaks of $14,000 / MWH are the new normal. Ignorance is replacing what works with what sounds good and a plethora of carpetbaggers fleecing the populace.
With capacity factors of 20% for solar and 30% for wind, it is evident that their costs are undercounted by at least a factor of 300% to 500%. Adding in storage costs of some $2000 / MWH and transmission lines at $4 M / mile plus fossil fuel, nuke or hydro backup when the wind fails or clouds drift in, are real costs associated with unreliable renewables. Recalculate your imaginary world with responsible address to the whole issue and not some lame, half true, propaganda.
210
Correction. $2500 per kWH or $2.5 M per MWh. For durations of 2 hrs. For example, a system with a 6-megawatt power capacity and a 24-megawatthour energy capacity has a nameplate duration of 4 hours.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36432
And this was 4 yrs ago, before a 300% increase in Lithium battery costs.
Chinese battery-grade lithium carbonate, a critical ingredient in most rechargeable batteries, has soared by 346% in 2021 due to high demand
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/tight-lithium-market-driving-up-battery-prices-67868122
Vestas has hiked wind system costs to Euro 960,000 / MWH. “The average selling price of the Danish manufacturer’s onshore turbines rose to €960,000/MW during the period — up by more than 20% compared to a year ago”
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/vestas-hikes-wind-turbine-prices-to-highest-in-last-decade-71615845
So factor that into your projections and claims.
Oh. By the way, there isn’t enough Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, or Silver to satisfy world energy demands. Ever. It is a resource constrained fantasy. 5 to 10 yrs is doable, but after that, it all collapses because the resources don’t exist. What say you?
120
Lance,
The Leftist, Marxist and Fellow Travelers Utopian ideal only sounds good to people who are cognitively challenged performing basic mathematics.
Well, actually, more a case cognitively challenged, full stop.
We will leave aside the concept of commonsense, it being as rare as it is.
The example is the current infestation of the Teal/Green/Marxist useless idiots that spew their propaganda in the comments section.
Even when you point out their lack of subject matter knowledge, and point to actual authoritative and indisputable facts, they return, as stupid, malicious and incompetent as ever, with their current handlers spiel. It’s so obvious, that’s it’s mind boggling.
I’ve often wondered if these Clowns get paid, or even how. It can’t be much?
Also, I wonder if it’s actual source is just another Teal/Green/Marxist useless idiot Bot Farm woke wonder, recruited to pollute forums that are on some “Blacklist”, such as Jo’s would be?
The alternative is like the prior history of Fetterman, the new US congress critter, it’s forty, fat, well fed, and lives in it’s mothers basement, surrounded by high tech, with a carbon footprint the size of half a city block.
All paid for out of it’s trust fund.
81
LOL.. No, ACT and Canberra are totally reliant on COAL-FIRED electricity.
They are part of the NSW grid, Currently 55% coal.. 80%+ once evening sets in.
Fudging the numbers, and pretending they are only getting “renewable” energy, can only fool the very unaware… !
180
“80%+ once evening sets in.”
NSW, and therefore ACT, currently 91% fossil fuels !
The ACT’s 100% renewables “meme” is yet another total scam.
60
So, when you and Shane Rattenbury are proved wrong by reality, to whom ought I send the bill? You or him?
Talk is cheap. When a grid fails, many people suffer. When the promises of “cheap wind and solar power” don’t happen, who pays for the aftermath? You?
Vince, for whatever reason you tout this nonsense, nobody is paying you enough. It is provably incompetent drivel.
Stop lying. Get an education in electrical engineering power systems. Minor in economics and mineral geology.
At least be competent to speak to the issues. If you are a Chartered Electrical Engineer, please do provide your registration information so that someone might take you seriously. Absent that, stop chattering on about ignorance.
220
Wait, what? He was serious?? I thought Vince put that up as an example of how all their talk is just crap and it never happens, everything there is one side of a fake argument.
All we have to do to prove it is turn off the interconnector and let them run on their own power. All else is bullsh1t.
180
I wonder where Canberra gets its electricity on a windless night. 🙂
Or does it turn into a mini North Korea.
Vince tells us it isn’t using expensive fossil fuels 😉
110
Vince. Your brain cavity where the brain should be appears to be in a whirlwind. Is it full of solar panels and windmills?
130
One whirlwind on the rocks please!
https://forgifs.com/gallery/d/196578-2/Parasurfing-fail.gif
10
Quoting the Guardian as an accurate source of info Vince? Wow.
160
So if renewables work so well in ACT, let’s use it as a model for the rest of the country.
80
Did the French not do routine inspections, maintenance, and upgrades?
The Columbia Generating Station (WA State) 100 miles south of me entered commercial operation in December 1984.
90
“At the heart of France’s nuclear crisis are two problems. One concerns the carbon content of critical steel parts, steam heat exchangers, and other components manufactured or supplied by AREVA SA, the French state-owned nuclear engineering firm and global producer of nuclear reactors. The second problem concerns forged, falsified, or incomplete quality control reports about the critical components themselves.”
https://www.powermag.com/frances-nuclear-storm-many-power-plants-down-due-to-quality-concerns/
Some people are in Serious trouble. Improper or Falsified metallurgical reports are serious concerns.
120
I seem to remember around 2000, Japan had a period of crisis when it was discovered that xrays of welds on critical piping were fakes, done when major maint was done on the plants, back then I worked for an oil company and the Japs were offering crazy money to buy tankers of crude oil on the water to fuel their old oilfired power stations hurriedly taken out of mothballs.
So the problem might seem to be the oversight of contract work, or lack of it.
60
It’s not just the UK as France normally exports Nuclear Powered Electrical Energy to Germany as well.
70
YES, Europe has screwed up badly. YES, Germany may bear the brunt. Even in business news there seems to be a consensus that Germany will be gorced to deindustrialise its economy because it cannot remain competitive without low cost energy. Even LNG future into next year are very high priced.
But has this conclusion been adequately tested against the facts? Yes, the back up plan is international and US sourced LNG supples.
And this can only work if enough regasification terminals are nearing completion, next year.
Reading in the links here, referenced at Wikipedia, I’m of the opinion that it may just be a successful plan B.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelmshaven_LNG_terminal
So, a careful watch on this, as well as on greater Europe — rather than the dark vapours and alarums that might be mistaken.
I’d love for Europe to be slapped in getting realistic about energy. But is even the UK? He** no.
50
RobB at the top writes
“At least Germany is keeping its last three nuclear plants running.”
Chancellor Angela Merkel adopted elimination of nuclear power generation to mollify her party’s Green allies. This happened after the almost predictable Fukushima disaster some 11 years ago, involving First Gen nukes with cooling vulnerable to tsunamis in an earthquake prone nation whose geography is vulnerable to tsunamis
NONE OF THIS EXISTS IN GERMANY, yet the lunatic commitment was made. Who dares reverse it?
In what I read, virtually no body mentions that Japan has straightforwardly REVERSED it no nuke commitment. It has restarted nuke and ordered, what, fifty more?
Facts need to influence REAL policy. NOW IS THE TIME TO PRESS GERMANY TO GET AS SENSIBLE AS Japan.
Yet almost
60
…and ever-so-convenient power issues are pushing people to the financial brink which in turn makes them more dependent on govt assistance such as the looming UBI at which point they do whatever the govt says or they starve in the dark.
People are simply not prepared for a sharp economic downturn. The Money and Pensions Service conducted a poll in the UK in which it found around 25% of adults have under £100 in savings. The 3,000-person survey found that 17% reported having absolutely nothing set aside. Around 5% reportedly had under £50, while 4% had between £50 and £100.
The drastically increased cost of living has many living paycheck to paycheck. The Building Societies Association (BSA), as reported by the BBC, conducted a separate survey that found that 35% of people in the UK simply stopped saving due to inflation. Around 36% said they are already dipping into their savings accounts to pay the bills.
The Bank of England is anticipating a long recession ahead. The central bank sees economic conditions contracting through the first half of 2024. The central bank’s prediction of five consecutive quarters of contraction would mark the longest recession in UK history. The people have not experienced the full effects of this recession, and most are simply not prepared for what lies ahead.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/the-uk-is-not-prepared-for-a-prolonged-recession/
Refuse the play the WEF’s game, dump corrupt pollies, end the Russian sanctions and it all goes away…
(Reality- it’s going to get way worse)
50
John,
The single biggest flaw I can see is this so called “govt assistance” magic rescue package, and the idiotic so called “Living Wage” being touted.
Firstly, the thing you need to start explaining to anyone who listens, is Governments have no money.
Actual wealth, and hence it’s common trading component, money, is created by Citizens, who gamefully employ themselves and others, in creating actual wealth.
In a free market, they then create a customer base, that consumes and demands more of their product. This then creates more wealth.
The alternatives have already been tried.
Socialism, in all it’s forms, and it’s murderous successor, Communism, have managed to kill around Ten Million people a year, every year, on average, since it’s inception.
The outcome is always poverty, a cold brutal and short lifespan, and a decline in Civilization and Technology, to name but a few of it’s endearing qualities.
The previous Soviet Union was a prime example. It was basically a forced labour camp, run by criminals, where people starved and died and the Soviet nightmare eventually died along with it.
As for the exceptions, that being our would be masters, as history shows, they are also brutally purged, on a regular basis, so as to make way for their new masters.
Unfortunately it took a while, but as we have seen since, there are stupid people that abound, who still believe that real Communism hasn’t yet been achieved.
I would, as many others would, disagree. It seems to have worked perfectly, and exactly by design, every where it’s been tried.
For those infantile idiots that would tout the Wonders of China, again, they have never been to China, likley never will, and clearly don’t understand the actual and acute danger that China presents to human Civilization.
This aside from China’s serious internal issues, and the massive internal issues in the CCP.
China would not survive a global recession. Neither will the West.
The rest will go up in flames.
As for the NWO/WEF and their ilk arising from the ashes, yeah, history is also against that happening.
No energy, no food, no production capability and the very likley historical rise of the Warlord. Venezuela and now Brazil, being a case in point. It never ends well.
Outside of a miracle, there will be no exceptions this time.
90
Iain, a very sensible post.
40
Just posted on ZH:
Hungary Explains “Huge” Impact Of “Total Failure” Anti-Russia Sanctions On Europeans
“The sanctions which have been introduced by the European Union [against] Russia have failed. It’s a total failure,” Szijjarto told Jordan’s Roya News in a televised appearance. He decried that the biggest impact was felt negatively by EU member states and further that the sanctions have not achieved any of their stated goals.
In his most blistering criticism aimed at EU decision-makers, the top Hungarian diplomat described, “It was said by the European Commission that the sanctions will help us to conclude this war as soon as possible and that it will bring Russia’s economy to its knees. What’s the outcome? It’s totally the opposite.”
Instead, he warned the economic war still being waged against Moscow is only resulting in escalation on the battlefield, as well as escalating inflation at home. “The war is becoming more and more brutal … And, in the meantime, the European economy is suffering very badly,” he said, observing too that Europe is now enduring a “tremendous energy crisis” and rising food prices.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hungary-explains-huge-impact-total-failure-anti-russia-sanctions-europeans
All EU countries need to stop being the USA’s b%tch if they want to survive.
” To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”
— Henry Kissinger
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There’s a lot of people who believe that the purpose of the sanctions was mostly to break the EU and only bother Russia as an afterthought.
The USA competes more directly with the EU than any other economic block.
Then again, they might be just a bunch of idiots … that’s always on the table.
50
Some of the things that I’ve noticed, and have yet to be factored into this years Northern winter predictions, is even with a mild Northern Winter, most of Europe is below it’s average energy consumption or capable energy output quota.
I would also include this predicated energy shortfall to affect the UK, Spain, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Austria, Hungary, and Romania.
Firstly, the touted capacity of France’s winter output, as any engineer would know, but it seems, so far, hasn’t yet been factored in, is that it has no “margin of error” on the published figures.
This factor would normally be assumed, but this is also Macrons France.
As anybody would understand that has any ordinary understanding of and with any large, or even medium to small scale energy plant, you can’t run any plant (machinery) at peak capacity for extended periods.
When your taking in to account National Energy Grids, you must factor in some reserve.
This is to allow for sudden peak usage, and also capacity for ordinary maintenance outage issues.
As I see it, the quoted figures provide no such information.
So you could knock ten percent off the capacity of these published figures, for a start, just for the safety factor.
Then, as I understand it, there is no additional energy capacity should France have a week of just average mild Winter (0c to 5c) weather.
Should Europe have just one week of such weather, then clearly that is going to hurt.
However, the average “mild” Mild European Winters range from a low of (-12c), yes, that’s minus 12 Celsius to an average of (10c), yes, Ten degrees above freezing.
I would’ve, once upon a time, also leave it to the reader to work out which is the day time and which is the night time temperature, and also what time of the day the maximum is reached, but given the cognitive challenged amongst us, or for those that have never been too, or anywhere in Europe, the overnight low starts descending as soon as it gets dark.
The daytime average usually occurs in the late afternoon, although even in a mild European Winter, I noticed Day time average between (2c and 5c) were the norm.
As an example, a few years ago, Northern Scotland’s end of Summer temperature was a balmy (16c) at four in the afternoon. The overnight was a comfortable (5c) around Ten pm. This is average.
Although I was inside the Pub at that time, and they had good warm beds, so I didn’t care.
So yeah, Northern Europe is in for a world of hurt this December.
January will be extremely unpleasant, and that’s just based on “Best Outcomes”, which seems to me, to be Fairy Magic, at best.
What hasn’t been factored in is an average cool to cold Winter. Not a bad “Beast from the East” style Winter, just cool to cold.
Sadly, even just a week or two of such weather will create serious social issues.
So, we have just Eight to Twelve weeks to go, any Bets on the outcome?
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“you can’t run any plant (machinery) at peak capacity for extended periods”
Not true, Captain Kirk did it dozens of times, even with second hand dilithium crystals.
Scotty was always being a buzzkill.
Only partly being a smarta$$.
Most people get their science and engineering views from advertising based media.
We’ve seriously lost the propaganda perception war.
I think maybe the Pandemic gave the so called ‘democratic’ powers cover to get cyber control of voting outcomes.
We just saw it here in the US.
Brazil?
Macron has a fan base?
So their failures and draconian actions get muted political traction.
Take, Canada and how they were able to paint protesting, tax paying, people that make things go Truckers as terrorists?
Trudeau is a Pakled.
Turns out the real ones are good looking and have Ivy League educations and became Tech Lords by hiring engineers to make things go.
Are vax failures being obscured by the Media?
Ghislaines’s client list?
Hunter’s business deals?
Dominion voting machines are flummoxed by bad magic markers?
My guess is the media will continue the sale of the painted renewable energy pig no matter how many freeze in Europe this Winter.
40
I spent a few years in the Netherlands (work related) and remember those cold siberian winds during winter when the canals would freeze over. We had a gas hot water central heating system in our apartment, which was piped into all rooms under the floor to keep the apartment livable at 19 degrees. I certainly cannot image having no gas when the temperature is below zero, let alone minus 10 or lower which occurred a few times each winter. This energy shortage is a crazy situation that I really can’t fathom from my memories of the continent, which were prior to the big green shift of the past decade. Even crazier, when I look at the recent google pictures of my work place and apartment block over there, both locations now have enormous EV charging stations next door and the entire country is now dotted with these stations as people have been forced onto EVs due to government mandates. This forced EV transition and the extra electricity demand across Europe is seldom mentioned as an added cause of the problem, but it must have made a significant contribution to electricity demand and it makes the decisions to cut FF production over the past decade not just crazy, but now most likely lethal. IMO – People who made the decisions to cut FF production for ideological reasons need to be held to account and the same applies down here and everywhere. Unless there is a commensurate consequence to willful actions that bring harm and death, then there will be no path out of this mess.
80
It also seems from that that there going to be a whole lot of things that expected warm water to be flowing that aren’t going to like being frozen and might be very expensively leaky come the next thaw?
40
That’s a good point. Subzero temps and no power = burst water pipes everywhere and no water.
20
Pretty optimistic with the 2027 start date for construction in France. Environmentalist groups will fight tooth and nail to prevent land acquisition and use (unless the government already has the land, I don’t know).
Macron is still desperately wanting to raise the retirement age, plus some other industrial relations changes, and this is causing strikes, not just at fuel refineries, but also nuclear power plants. Trains and planes too, but these are normal!
40
It looks like Twitter has struck an iceberg and is taking on water.
10
No great loss!
20
Only to be expected… Those advertisers making money out of ads on Twitter were the ones that favoured the woke Green Left and have to keep up a public persona of hating filthy rich Capitalists like Musk.
I’m sure there are enough other companies below the Mega-Woke to make it as viable as any other net media like Facebook or Youtube. I have a faint feeling the money is not made in advertising for any of those companies though…
20
How close did QLD come to blackouts recently when all 4 units of Callide B & C were all offline whilst Kogan Creek was already shutdown for planned overhaul and one unit of Gladstone was also offline, must’ve got a bit skinny there for a while.
40
UK Man Sent To Prison For 6 Months For Serving Snacks At Club During Lockdown
A 72-year-old man has been sentenced to six months in prison for the crime of serving mince pies with wine at his shooting club in 2020 while the area was under a lockdown.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/uk-man-sent-prison-6-months-serving-snacks-club-during-lockdown
Go ahead – tell me how das gubermint cares about truth, reality, science, facts or the electorate at this point.
It’s beyond repair now, it really is.
Those who don’t think we can see the future have no idea of the past…
50
Spot on, John.
We are way past the point of no return and it is all downhill from here.
The curs clogging up our parliaments are just filling in time now.
10
“Boris Johnson had several parties during lockdown and got away with it. This guy served mince pies during lockdown and has been literally sent to prison. England is a complete embarrassment. ”
Man can’t disagree with that! No wonder the peasants string them all up every now and then!
Of course he was hammered hard as he’s a shooter, and with a shooting club as well, so on the UK he’s pretty much the Devil himself.
20
I think we’re getting very close to “now and then”, KP.
20
Hard to feel any sympathy for Europe. They really do have a propensity for self harm. Like the UK, the rest of Europe will just need to learn the hard way – blackouts and unaffordable energy bills. Meanwhile “developing” China the worlds 2nd largest economy continues on its merry way unabated as was endorsed first at Paris then again at Glasgow. Congratulations all concerned.
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