Giles, Weather balloon
Things are far far worse at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology than even we realized.
“If you think your public forecasts have gotten worse, that’s because they have,” one meteorologist says.
While Australia is flooding and lives depend on forecasts, the management of our weather bureau is cutting back on meteorologists and on weather balloons, but they’re making sure they do frivolous exercises in rebranding with a new kindergarten logo and calls to be “The Bureau”, and not the BoM.
It’s hard to believe, but instead of releasing two weather balloons from each site every day like the rest of the modern world, the BoM has decided to cuts costs and reduce many regional sites to just one or even none each day. This is in breach of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) standards. Weather balloons are the prize “unrivaled” meteorological instrument. In roughly 900 places all over the world, weather balloons are launched twice a day, every day of the year. These radio back temperature, humidity and wind and pressure data as they rise up as high as 30 kilometers (20 miles) into the atmosphere.
The degradation of the BoM as a science agency is so far gone, that there was even an astonishing plan to reduce launches in capital cities. The idea was to do just one balloon a day, with a second one “on request”. After a fierce internal battle, it appears the aviation division of the bureau, perhaps concerned that planes might crash, said they will find some money to cover the second balloon. Though that’s only for this financial year. The intent is still there. Who needs data, eh?
Insiders are so outraged, they are speaking anonymously to reporters of The Saturday Paper.
‘It’s kind of horrific’: BoM cuts compromise forecasts
Rick Morton, The Saturday Paper
One meteorologist at the bureau, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said it was now “an open secret that we are not meeting our WMO obligations” on upper atmosphere observation. “We have been told by several senior people that we are now not meeting our WMO requirements, but I also get the sense that it is not considered to be a big deal,” they said. “It’s kind of horrific, the effect that it would have on our model quality as well as just our ability to add our own expertise on top of the computer models. It is crazy to me.”
“Everywhere around the world balloons are launched twice daily at more or less synchronised times,” a meteorologist employed by the BoM said on the condition his identity not be revealed. “Not only is this data the only way to get a real idea of what is actually going on in the vertical profile of the atmosphere, it provides crucial observations for the NWP [numerical weather prediction] models.
“The NWP models are going to become significantly worse across Australia, which in turn affect forecast quality, especially with public weather relying on pure model data so much lately.”
It’s not clear exactly how many sites have shifted from 14 weather balloons a week “to five”, but if the capital cities were next on the list, how many other sites are left still maintaining the normal WMO standards?
Does the climate matter to the BoM? Looks like “not”.
The loss of weather balloon data is an absolute scandal — our entire hundred billion dollar forced transition depends on climate models that use weather balloon data as the main tool to identify the major cause of the warming. Hey, but it’s only “attribution”, who cares what drives the climate, apart from 26 million people paying for green electrons and eating crickets to save the world?
Besides, if the greenhouse “hot spot” fingerprint isn’t there, it’ll be so much easier to find it with sparser data and wider error bars. 28 million weather balloons looked for the hot spot from 1959 – 1999 and couldn’t find it, but maybe they could’ve if models had interpolated the “gaps” instead? Sometimes you can have too much data…
There was no hot spot in the Hadley weather balloon data 10km up over the equator.
It’s not just the cost cutting, and the data loss, but also the management
Hard to believe I could ever feel sorry for the meteorologists at the BoM, but here we are. They didn’t speak up for science and data much in the last twenty years, instead they welcomed Big Government and it has come in to eat them. Karma, much?
Giles Met Station launching a weather balloon.
Instead of being a scientific agency it is now a Home-for-Bureaucrats which also does some forecasts. It’s run by administrators, not people who love meteorology, and as the bureaucrats grew, the meteorologists shrank. Increasingly the bureau is relying on models, but with less data, and less expert oversight. Staff are not being replaced to keep up with attrition.
“If you think your public forecasts have gotten worse, that’s because they have,” one meteorologist says. “The public forecast gets produced twice a day, at 4am and 4pm. The national production team is shockingly small for the task at hand.
To cope with the vast task of individual town forecasts across a whole continent, the BoM is increasingly relying on “automation and bureaucracy through decision matrices.” All the advanced neural nets in the brains of meteorologists are ignored in favour of a silicon chip decision. So when a prediction from the weighted “global model of models” looks wrong, the experts can’t override it.
“Say, then, that in Melbourne the max temperature that was generated by models was going to be too high, or the models were saying showers all day when it really wasn’t going to happen,” a meteorologist says.
“Even if a forecaster in national production knew this was the case, and even if it would take them five minutes to fix, it would not satisfy the decision matrix for that day, and they would not be allowed to fix it. I stress, even if it would take them five minutes.”
The BoM defends its forecasts are better now than five years ago, and that the automated forecasts are more accurate. Though, of course, some of us wonder what accurate means, and who decided how to measure it.
The whole nation is spending billions of dollars to “fix” our weather based on warming measured in sites that often fail the BoM’s own standards, but the BoM is more concerned about the way people refer to it on Twitter instead of the thermometers placed near incinerators and bitumen car parks.
There’s a lot more BoM incompetence on display in The Saturday Paper article, which is well written, but is paywalled. In other scandals the BoM’s giant new supercomputer has sat there for years unable to be used until it can be moved to a new “resilient data centre” perhaps another year or two away. And an 18 month long program to upgrade the national forecast grid from 6km to 3km ended with them dropping the more accurate 3km grid which existed in Victoria and Tasmania and putting the whole nation on the lower resolution 6km grid. So not only did the process reduce the resolution in two states, but now there are many work-arounds to compensate for the lack of the 3km grid everyone was expecting to use, and had been planning for.
Thanks to David E, El Gordo, and The Great UnVaxxed.
Photos by Jo Nova
So we’re not the BOM anymore, we’re the Bureau of Dumbing Down, or is that the Bureau of Lowering Expectations.
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Perhaps history is repeating itself. Prior to his downfall Clement Wragge began to call his little chook house the “Chief Weather Bureau, Brisbane”. The result was to alienate all the other state meteorologists.
Although his long term forecasts did seem to work out better.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/173965592
Sunspot numbers seem to be exceeding all predictions.
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Soooo, what is the end result of less physical balloon observations?
Next,,,, weather stations.
IIRC, Dr. Spencer demonstrated such on a graph some years ago on Obs.
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B.O.M. – We are now in the Bowels Of Mediocrity.
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Nope. Bunch of Muppets
40
maybe ‘ministry of weather control’ would be more appropriate?
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‘BM’ may be apt – one a day.
I think that fits my needs.
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Been happening in Australia for the last 30 years ate least!
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Those weather balloons are only launched for one customer…the aviation industry. BY REGULATION WE ARE NOT ALLOWED TO TRUST OR USE ANY OTHER SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION.Sorry about the caps but it is worth noting, Weather is DANGEROUSLY important to aviation in this country.
There is an added complication. Weather balloons do not and have never agreed with any climate model to date. Just like hiding the MAWP I fear our wx balloons have gone the same way to facilitate models not being proven consistently incorrect.
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from the Saturday Paper….
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What does it matter? With the advances in weather control around the world. all it takes to get a forecast, phone a number in Davos.
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Besides who needs data when you have all these models — all umpteen of them? Just select the one that fits your prejudice.
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Funding cuts are the reason, and sustained criticism was the driver for those cuts, including this site.
By the way what does 25 year old data about the equator have to do with anything happening now in Australia.
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Since when have they or the Labor politicians who theoretically control them been responsive to criticism?
And if they weren’t performing, criticism is entirely legitimate. They cost hard-working taxpayers a lot of money.
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Cheeses swept, David.
We’ve had a LIBERAL – NATIONAL government for the past nine years.
What next? Blame Whitlam?
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Blame Whitlam? By all means.
It was Whitlam who lowered the standards in our education system. Standards which the latest news tells us 50 years on are still in decline.
Didn’t you know that?
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Whitlam LOST office 47 years ago after a mere four years in power. Since then we have had 25 years of Liberal/National governments and 22 years of Labor governments. The Long March through our institutions started before Whitlam (late Sixties) and has continued utterly uninterrupted through all that period and all those changes in government.
Anybody who thinks this can be attributed to one side of mainstream party politics or the other is seriously deluding themselves. Anybody who thinks it can all be blamed on one Richard Cranium who held the reins for just four years nearly half a century ago is suffering from some kind of cognitive dissonance issue.
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We had a Liberal government for nine years? Really? How can we tell?
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Federal Election results 2013, 2016, 2019.
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I think most conservatives would agree that those elections were won by the right wing of the Labor party.
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Yeah.
It’s called the Liberal/National Coalition.
And your point is . . .
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The point is that we haven’t had a genuine conservative government since Howard lost power. And, to be truthful, I don’t think that Howard was all that conservative.
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Jackboot Johnie was and remains an unreconstructed statist to his “core”.
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David, I remember very clearly (these things stick in one’s memory) that following sustained criticism from many quarters, including this site probably, Tony Abbot, as PM, authorised an investigation into the corruption of historical data at the BOM. Greg Hunt, the current Environment Minister and child of DAVOS at that time, blocked it and it never happened then or up to now.
Off subject, but pertinent, the same Greg Hunt blocked any alternative treatment option for Covid, too.
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Very justified criticism… why not just say that !!
Why aren’t you arguing about getting more meteorologists and less leftist bureaucrats.
You know.. doing the job they are meant to be doing !
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Peter, what does 25 year old data have to do with what is happening in Australia right now……we’ll probably everything!
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In 2012, BoM received appropriations of around $266m. In 2021 it was $346m – a 30% increase in 9 years. That’s not a cut in funding.
They had 1520 staff back then. In 2021, they had 1432. So, 30% more money and 6% less people. However, they paid those staff $194m in 2021 vs $182m in 2013.
Do you see “cuts” in funding there?
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It depends where the money gets spent now… I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a thriving “inclusivity and diversity” department taking a nice chunk of their budget to achieve less than zero.
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Anto, stop it!.
Those things are called facts. Facts.
Facts are anathema to the extreme left and the irrational greenies. And to the many of them who comment here.
The rule of bureaucracy is, and always has been, “specialists on tap, never on top”.
And when it come to saving money to meet the pay increases of the upper managment levels, the tea lady is always the first to go, then the junior specialists and so on up, until you get the desired level of savings – and the resultant level of incompetence.
The BoM has been a joke for years. Let it crash. The private sector will pick up the opportunities the BoM creates with its vacating of the field. A good thing too.
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Mr. sceptic: “Funding cuts are the reason”, really? Not a “prioritization” problem? While we are at it, what does temps in 2100 have to do with weather in AUS now?
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Nothing, except that any person with a modicum of intelligence understands that to predict the future, one has to understand the past. But you probably don’t grasp this.
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Peter,
In your opinion:
was the criticism justified? absolutely it was.
if the 25yo data showed ‘warming’, you would be very interested.
30
Why make measurements?
They don’t do science anymore. They would only have to do real world measurements if they were actually practicing science.
They are first and foremost political propagandists relying on their once-good reputation from when they were once a science-based organisation.
Their mission is to promote “imminent climate catastrophe”, a political objective which requires the destruction of Western Civilisation to fix.
They can just run their defective and non-validated “models” to produce the “weather” reports required of the masses but who never notice how wrong they are.
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The balloons had the wrong opinion on temperature … got cancelled.
It happens, gotta be a little bit careful these days, if you know what I mean.
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Less readings means they can fabricate more “real” values !
Maybe even find a “hot spot” 😉
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Someone needs to fortify democracy.
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Up up and away… …
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I look at soundings from weather balloons in order to get a profile of the atmosphere. This is available on weather websites for a fee. It is unbelievable that this monstrous organisation sees fit to excise this data gathering. We must conclude- like many other fields of science that the BoM is dumbed down. Bring on the weather girl in the red dress.
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Indeed those (old) ballons are disagreeing with the (new) super expensive computer models.
They are last century tech so clearly they must be wrong.
Best practice is to get rid of the old tech and go totally to the new.
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Responsible cutting edge science is concerned with weather 100 years from now.
It is also a good career move since you, and everyone, else will never find out you were wrong.
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else,
It is I that is responsible for poor comma placement.
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Run by Administrators and accountants that is the crux of our Public Service in general. Hospitals and healthcare also suffer from these overzealous types employed by a political system that believes not in PS but BS and pandering to the ego of their respective ministers. Far too much money is spent on administering Australia. Public Servants, a misnomer if ever there was one, outnumber the public they are supposed to be serving. Labor Administrations see the PS as a guarantee of sustaining political power.
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Correction
Government
by Solicitors
for Solicitors
of Solicitors
The accountants and bureaucratic seat warmers are there to maintain the status quo and protect the wealth of the elite.
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“Far too much money is spent on administering Australia.”
Good grief yes! Why have States when they are all identical and just toe the Federal line?? Why have Canberra at all when the States can do everything that is needed.
I have never figured out why the States let Canberra be set up to have its own taxation, they passed control over with that and made themselves completely irrelevant. Canberra should be run on cheques passed over from each State once a year, or just dissolve the States and get rid of a mountain of waste and inefficiency.
Still, I suppose it soaks up all the unemployables.
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Thanks Jo & your contributors David E, El Gordo, and The Great UnVaxxed.
This should be a great conversation topic for my industrious neighbour. A concerned green activist who has had me burning diesel to help up grade his stand alone green biosphere. I understand he is a journalist for BOM. I will ask if has suffered any cut backs in his department.
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Thanks for your contribution of generating CO2 Broadie. The world needs more of it. It had been going dangerously low, to the point plants would have died if it had dropped much more and there would have been a mass extinction event.
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Was recently on Norfolk Island, and saw the local meteorologist release the weather balloon one morning, and received a good briefing. But think they only do it once per day at 11am.
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The supercomputer is rapidly becoming obsolete as it sits there unused in crates.
Although, what does it matter? The models it runs are defective.
THEY should just return to the times when they had actual scientists who understood how the weather worked, who looked out the window, who took measurements, who looked at satellite pictures, and who predicted the weather using scientific knowledge, not defective and non-validated models.
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Looking at weather maps (synoptic) for decades they conveyed an accuracy that was the result of many sites and unerring diligence. Out back sites radio back temperature ,wind direction and pressure regularly and meticulously. Modern technology like satellite and radar have helped a lot. As for geeks in BoM central who cover their inadequacies with banks of models in front of them they just need a posting to Boulia post office for a break.
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No GlenM , send them to either Giles or Wanaaring but preferably Giles .
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Just tee up the supercomputer with electricity generated by solar panels and windmills. That should do it along with a robot or two……………..Couldn’t be any worse than the predictions now………..But then again, errrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
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Apart from everything else, its difficult to believe that this public “service” department is concerned about the money they were spending or budgetary issues. Especially under a Labor regime.
I think there must be another reason.
Perhaps the weather balloons weren’t returning the results they wanted that “prove” their political objective of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming? I think that’s far more likely.
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You might be onto something there David.
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Their budget was, until last week, not a result of the Labor regime.
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not only that – but the head of the BOM was appointed by Josh Frydenberg, and he (Dr Andrew Johnson) was the one who approved the rebanding debacle
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“not a result of the Labor regime”
Was certainly not a conservative regime, either, was it.!
Still a very left-oriented government under TurnCoat one, then his follower.. you know, the one with the splinters from sitting on the fence doing nothing.!
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Yes, today’s Liberals are almost indistinguishable from Green Labor and only slightly less bad. In Vicdanistan all Liberals can offer is to be more “green” than Labor.
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That tactic worked so well for the WA Libs, I can see why the Vic libs are going down that path…
Meanwhile the Vic libs election strategy refuses to even mention the 800 deaths caused by andrews incompetence/corruption, the brutality of his stasi like police force attacking not criminals but elderly folks with a zeal never seen in this country before, the immense damage caused by his absurd lockdowns and mandates, the bloating of public service to garnish support, the destruction of our cheap, reliable power system, the non-measurable change to temps/climate as a result of the billions spent thus far on windmills and solar panels (and diesel generators lol), the many corruption scandals, etc, etc, etc
That they can’t (won’t) lay a finger on the most corrupt, despicable politician in living memory, says a lot about the lnp at the moment.
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It may well be smart to tell the Saturday Paper rather than a major. The Saturday Paper is read by the wokest of the woke in the leafy inner suburbs. The people who clamour for such things as electricity from wind and EVs. Maybe a Teal or two.
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Yes.
I thought about buying the paper to read the article in full. Then I thought, ‘The Saturday Paper’. Nooo.. I think I have read enough already
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I can access the full article at this link using Firefox.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/10/29/its-kind-horrific-bom-cuts-compromise-forecasts#mtr
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Yes, makes you wonder if it was a controlled leak? Reported on, but quickly forgotten.
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What do you mean “The degradation of the BoM as a science agency is so far gone,”. No, it lost any scientific credibility it had along time ago. If I remember correctly, they forfeit their title as a science body by not revealing the code or methodology behind the current Acorn process.
I’m sure there are other instances that debased the scientific process. Reducing the number of balloons is just another way of corrupting the science further.
Regards
Climate Heretic
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Absolutely.
If the methodology used to generate the results is not published and is considered a state secret which apparently can’t even be revealed under Freedom of (from) Information legislation, then by definition IT IS NOT SCIENCE.
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The BoM has destroyed its own reputation for most of us by homogenising temperatures. For years they have played the “Climate Change’ game and lost credibility with a lot of people. We have ‘heat islands,’ moving temperature gauges to warmer places and ‘adjustments’ to past accurate readings. Like many others, they claim to know the temperatures at the end of the century, but are often wrong for the current week! This new story does not surprise me at all. Maybe they just want to sit in front of an all knowing computer and let it do some fortune telling projections.
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I have for years used OzForecast, which uses a variety of sources for their forecasts.
I have found this significantly more reliable than “The Bureau” even up to 2 weeks in advance.
I agree that the bureaucratisation of BOM echoes changes in the health department, with doctors now facing deregistration for questioning the official party line.
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The forerunners in this shift to a totalitarian mentality was our education system which produced the current crop of ‘professional bureaucrats’ that now infest every aspect of our political and economic life. One plus one is now anything you want it to be, and concepts such as ‘man’ or ‘woman’, cannot (and need not) be defined. Even the corporate world has foregone rational thought in the quest to become the wokiest of the pack.
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Agreed.
That education system now starts at preschool (which is, I’m sure, a large reason why politicians of all hues push for greater access to childcare at an increasingly younger age), and continues to the end of university (which again is why the push for everyone to go to university, no matter how innane the course).
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Dr T,
Recent Quadrant Online article by Tony Thomas notes that 98% of Australian preschool teachers are female. That is not a healthy balance.
Geoff S
20
FWIW
We’re about 150 km east of a regional met centre.
Used weather balloons used to be a common occurrence but we hardly ever see one these days.
Do the modern ones get greater range?
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They’re biodegradable mate.
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The foil on the drogue is biodegradable?
Hat users of the world being short changed on protection then?
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Maybe they’re escaping through the hole in the ozone layer!
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On one of my bushwalks I was once excited to find the remains of a weather balloon in the Dandenong Ranges near Melbournistan. I took the electronic parts and found out people hack them and do things with them but I never did that and it just sits in my private museum of interesting artefacts I have collected.
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Very interesting, David. If the instruments aboard weather balloons can be hacked, that must make it very easy to alter data collected. If they were ever found out, they could simply blame the Russians. Perfect!
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Gary, the hacking is not so much about altering data, but repurposing the radiosondes for amateur radio digital modes. It would be almost impossible to intercept and alter collected data unless you were near a release site.
“The Bureau” uses common Vaisala RS-41 radiosondes.
https://www.rtl-sdr.com/reprogramming-vaisala-rs-41-radiosondes-to-transmit-aprs-rtty-cw-in-the-ham-or-ism-bands/
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Recycling of Vaisala RS-41 meteorological radiosonde
http://www.om3bc.com/docs/rs41/rs41_en.html
30
My garage is full of carp as well.
40
sounds fishy to me
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My bold, and I had the thought before reading. jh
“The backlash was immediate when the federal government unveiled its new Nation Brand initiative design, which looked exactly like an illustration of the COVID-19 spike protein with a big AU in the middle”
https://www.smartcompany.com.au/marketing/branding/australias-biggest-rebrand-fails-bom/
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Imagine how bad it must be if even the Labor regime thinks the rebranding was a waste of money and the renaming to “The Bureau” was a bad thing.
“The Bureau” sounds like an establishment His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hajj Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of all the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Sea and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular would take people to be tortured.
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Wasn’t Amin ‘Admiral of the Fleet’ as well? And his post-nominal letters were said to include VC, DSO, MC, VD and DFC.
Auto – asking for a friend.
20
Many people rely on the BoM weather “predictions” to make commercial decisions and because the predictions are much less accurate than they used to be, they suffer increased financial losses than before (and thus less taxes to be paid).
I don’t use weather forecasts for commercial decisions but for bushwalking (US = hiking). On many occasions I or fellow bushwalkers have cancelled activities or altered plans due to BoM forecasts which have been entirely inaccurate.
I now find I can make more accurate forecasts by looking at the sky and making my own measurements of temperature and pressure with my own weather station, the data of which gets fed into crowd-sourced weather databases.
E.g.
https://pressurenet.io/
https://www.wunderground.com/pws/overview
https://weathermap.netatmo.com/
And many others.
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Also:
https://tracker.sondehub.org
for all the latest weather balloon data
Oz data provided by local trackers (similar to FR24 for aircraft).
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Russell, can we use that dataset to figure out how much the Australian radiosonde dataset has shrunk? What percentage overall are missing, and when did it start?
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Sorry Jo, the data is only starting to be useful statistically. It’s only been recording since about 2018.
Some locations have more data because long-term trackers have been around for a while (eg Adelaide where it was born).
A lack of trackers in even places like Sydney mean the data is badly incomplete and could not be used for your purpose.
Brisbane data is pretty good back to 2019 but the pattern is actually more launches (sometimes 3 or 4 per day in stormy weather).
Perth and Darwin are also showing very regular and steady launches. But the regional centres are very patchy due to lack of trackers.
We really need more trackers.
20
Something seems off. The current party in power is working hard to generate power with weather dependent wind and solar so they get rid of the meteorologists? There is mention of air travel in the article but not the renewable energy industry? I would think the value of good weather predictions is higher now than it was when fossil fuels powered everything.
If the BoM or “The Bureau” becomes less skillful in weather forecasting, private enterprise should step in to fill the void if there is value in accuracy. On the other hand, many renewable pricing schemes pay higher prices when generation is limited and the demand is high creating perverse incentives. If that were the case, perhaps the wiggle room from poor forecasting could be used to hide market manipulation.
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This way they can tell the weather what to do?
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Weather dependent electricity only needs accurate weather reports if the intention is to keep the lights on. That is NOT the plan. Once they have closed down the remaining gas and coal power stations, the electricity supply will be on and off, according to the vagaries of the weather.
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AEMO are aiming to get down to five minute forecasts for wind generator scheduling. That can only be done with automatic distributed sensors. I doubt anything the BoM provides could gp close to anything useful for generator scheduling.
As more wind capacity gets installed it becomes more demanding to handle the ups and downs. Both South Australia and Victoria will be curtailing wind generation at the moment because prices are negative. South Australia lower than the price of LGCs so those generators hanging in are making notional losses.
50
All explained in this video by William M. Briggs.
Uncertainty
40
So what do the 1600 employees of the Bureau of Meteorology do, with computers and automated weather stations and satellites once everything is automated? Or do they copy the ABC and all move to Sydney Harbour? And get their weather predictions from overseas? Say from China?
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Jo,
The BoM should forget about climate. We’d all be better served if it did. Their job, their charter, is not about climate, it’s about weather: reporting it and predicting it, especially for farmers and aviators. The models that matter are *weather* models. Climate models are something for academics to tinker with.
This is a word-usage quibble that matters. If we stick to using the right words ourselves, we’ll be better placed to call out people who call floods “climate events”.
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Robert, I chose the word carefully to mock all the times the BoM tells us that they care about climate change. They are part of the propaganda machine. Since they maintain (not really) our entire national instrument datasets the climate studies that look at our long term climate must use BoM data.
Obviously, if the BoM wanted to find out what our long term climate was like, they would be acting differently.
At the moment, they don’t even seem to care if passenger jets get accurate forecasts let alone climate researchers.
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That’s an interesting photo of Giles releasing a weather balloon. Though Giles had closed years ago. Is the entire site now automated?
50
That was my photo from October 2019. The Giles weather station was staffed with three real met scientists. They allow people to watch the weather balloon launch. (Or did in 2019). If I recall, the staff member who did the talk had previously worked in Macquarie Island or Antarctica or something like that. I was impressed at the time with the effort to maintain this incredibly remote site. Though I was not impressed that there was a sealed road within ten meters of the Stevenson screen. We had to drive over 1000 km of dirt road to get there, so you have to laugh that even in Giles, the surroundings were urbanised.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giles_Weather_Station
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Giles Met station released weather balloons at 1100UTC 31 Oct 2022 (ie last night) and again at 2300UTC 31 Oct 2022 (this morning).
http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/observations/aerological-diagrams/
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Incredible Jo. Talking to the met guys many years ago, none of them ever wanted to be posted to Giles. Was regarded similar to convicts being sent to Sarah Island.
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I’m sure they’re quite happy to just makes things up using adjustments instead of relying on proper twice daily observations and data.
Weather balloons take too much effort and time, while their so called computer models can be easily adjusted sitting on their backsides in front of a computer screen.
Meanwhile their fabled HOT SPOT 10 to 12 klms above the equator hasn’t been observed for over 60 years.
But do these donkeys really care about proper observations or data when they have adjustable computer modelling to help them fill in the gaps?
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It doesn’t matter where you look – science, education, journalism…you name it – we can no longer do so many of the things which once were routine.
Is that despite or because we now throw orders of magnitude more money at them?
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“Is that despite or because we now throw orders of magnitude more bureaucrats at them?”
Fixed your typo…
40
BTW that vile Suzuki loony is retiring but with a passing threat about blowing up oil pipelines.
But don’t expect the lefty Trudeau donkey to want to do anything about this parasitic, hypocritical and very wealthy elitist.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/31/david-suzuki-halloween-scary/
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From 2013.
And what a surprise. Like all Leftist climate catastrophists he owns waterfront property.
https://torontosun.com/2013/10/10/david-suzuki-a-man-of-property
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Why would he sell it? Is there any catastrophist modelling showing it is going to be inundated in his or his children’s lifetimes?
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WOW, GA has realised that the sea level rise is inconsequential, trivial.
NOT something to make manic pronouncements about… like many of the “climate worriers” are wont to do !.
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‘Oh B*mmer’, Tim Flannery, Al Gore, etc, etc……….The list of hypocrites is endless…………..
70
They are just following the instructions of the Nation’s enemies, as with just about anything else controlled by the elected government
60
I imagine that meteorologists in other parts of the world eg New Guinea, New Zealand, Indonesia and probably wider afield too would like Australian data to fill out their forecasts as well. I presume we have some obligation to other countries to provide data to them??
80
PNG appears not to have a functional weather service.
http://www.pngmet.gov.pg/
E.g.
Port Moresby
Weather
Weather forecasts have not been updated!
Wind
Weather forecasts have not been updated!
Max Temp
Weather forecasts have not been updated!
°C
Min Temp
Weather forecasts have not been updated!
°C
Valid Till
60
Missed a spot at the bottom…,
“Valid Till”
Bruce sobers up and gets around to updating them.
50
PS – keep this in mind next time we see an avg temp for Oz for Oct 2022.
60
The FBI is also called “The Bureau”. Is the BOM on a similar credibility nosedive?
80
I had to laugh when I read somewhere that there is no one at the BOM overnight to update the weather forecasts. So the weather goes to sleep at the same time as the people that work there? Ever heard of shift work you Muppets? Imagine if the people who work in Hospitals and Coal Fired Power Stations went to sleep overnight. The weather doesn’t go to sleep. For $1 million a day, the Australian Taxpayer is being royally shafted……………………..
And, the BOM website still has the wording ‘BOM Weather’ and ‘BOM’ on its website. So much for not liking others using BOM as a statement. How about not using it yourselves. Bunch Of Muppets…………………..
140
The organisation is in a state of flux.
‘Prof David Karoly, a veteran climate scientist who has collaborated with many BoM researchers over many years, said talking about climate change “is basically banned, but they are not allowed to talk about that ban”.
“I think it’s a leadership direction and Andrew Johnson has been principally responsible for that. It’s coming from the top.” (Guardian)
90
I wouldn’t believe Karoly as far as I could kick him.
140
Karoly was attached to the Southern Hemisphere hockey stick, which is not a good look.
Andrew Johnson was a Turnbull government appointee and he seems keen to get the Bureau forecasting weather and not so much climate catastrophism.
60
Karoly also lead author of one of the IPCC bibles chapters on hurricanes/ cyclones etc. Basically wrote assumptions in contradiction to all the best current data at the time. He was one of the IPCC’s golden haired boys.
70
The faith is strong in that one.
50
”Imagine if the people who work in Hospitals and Coal Fired Power Stations went to sleep overnight.”
Probably in the works as we type.
70
Bunch Of Manipulators
50
Bent on Misinformation
40
Bureau Of Mendacity
10
”
I had to laugh when I read somewhere that there is no one at the BOM overnight to update the weather forecasts”
Imagine how D-Day might have gone under that scenario?
50
AGAIN here’s the REAL world data they shouldn’t ignore.
Here’s global life expectancy …..
Life exp in 1950- 45.5 years.
Life exp in 1970- 56.5 yrs.
Life exp in 2022- 73 yrs.
And poorest continent Africa…..
Life exp in 1950- 33 years.
Life exp in 1970 -46 years.
Life exp in 2022- 64 years.
And global population in 1970 3.7 billion and 7.9 + billion today.
African population 227 million in 1950, 363 million in 1970 and 1400 million today. THINK about these trends and WAKE up.
AGAIN, so why are we WASTING TRILLIONs of $ for decades because of their so called EXISTENTIAL THREAT?
There is obviously no EMERGENCY, or CRISIS or EXISTENTIAL THREAT. In fact the reverse is true.
Just look up the DATA. Here’s the UN data link from Macrotrends.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/life-expectancy
42
Sorry … the implications are Malthusian – and I cannot get aboard with that notion.
In 1950 the total world fertility rate was 4.96
In 1970 the total world fertility rate was 4.46
Today the total world fertility rate is 2.4
Further the ‘global fertility replacement rate’ is 2.3 – meaning that as a species we are almost at the point of decline – something already achieved in the Americas, Asia and Europe.
We have had ‘the population bomb’ and survived it (as a species).
90
In reply to a happy little debunker.
The data are the data and the UN and Dr Rosling etc expect the global population to be about 10 billion ( 9 to 11? ) by 2100, so yes we’ll see a lower trend in the next 80 years.
But the very young Africans will push their pop much higher while China, Asia, EU, Nth America etc will continue to have low growth.
But my point is that we Humans live in a much healthier, wealthier world today than 50 years or 100 years ago and all changed and supported by reliable BASE-LOAD energy.
Coal, Gas and oil provide us with about 83% of TOTAL energy today and there’s zero chance that we’ll be able to replace that 83% by idiocy like UNRELIABLE S & W in the next 50 years.
The Malthusian loonies were completely wrong about a starving world by the year 2000 and a huge drop in population.
In fact the reverse is true and the real world data supports this claim.
But I’m sure that Africa will lower their pop trend as they have better incomes and education etc in future decades. And hopefully young women will be happy to have fewer kids and improved lives. But this will take some time to turn around.
81
I am a meteorologist and this is just unbelievable. Observations are the most important thing.
220
Roger, it’s good to hear from someone who uses this data. Thanks.
30
The BOM sucks up hundreds of millions of tax payer dollars every year.
Its anti scientific nature has been documented here many times and this is the latest.
But hey, over 50% of its sites don’t even meet WMO standards, so why not extend the largesse to stopping the balloons.
These clowns need to be shut down and get a contractor to do all the monitoring and forecasting with objectivity and accuracy built into the contract. Lots cheaper and without the capture by “a certain ideology” (in the words of my Federal member who then proceeded to do diddly squat about this utter waste of money and incompetence)
110
Defintely ! sounds like the lunatics got out of the assylum and found the BOM. THink some of their mates got a flight to Europe too. is it Infectious? O/T they say a lot of those illegals at Dover have many diseases we haven’t “heard” of for a long time,. as though we need some more.
60
It sounds as if there is general agreement that the BoM is underfunded and that satellite tropospheric measurements are not the be all and end all of climate data. I wonder though that if BoM announced that it was going to increase weather balloon sampling, would Jo complain of the waste of taxpayer money? Are any of us sufficiently knowledgeable to understand the cost/benefit decision?
519
Simon, there’s a WMO protocol and that would appear to be 2 balloon launches per day. Hence, Australia should at least adhere to that protocol. Anything less is highly undesirable.
210
“that the BoM is underfunded “
NO. it just has to pay too many useless petty bureaucrats.
Look at the waste of the abortive “rebranding” attempt for example.
Also the money wasted on useless “climate models”, when there are already so many other useless ones our there.
They should be concentrating on the people who do the actual work, and on their core purpose.
They should be concentrating on the WEATHER and recording climate data… try to get that right at least occasionally !
162
b.nice
“They should be concentrating on the people who do the actual work, and on their core purpose.
They should be concentrating on the WEATHER and recording climate data… try to get that right at least occasionally !”
I agree with you, but the Iron Law of Organisations is that they
AAA Become more left-wing over time
BBB Expand the bureaucracy at every opportunity.
It would be ‘almost against nature’ for the BoM to concentrate on weather – at least when there are jaunts to Egypt, all expenses paid, to be had.
Sharm-el-Sheik is supposed to be a playground [I’ve never been there], and I hera there’s a bunfight there soon.
Auto
20
By saying “Are any of us sufficiently knowledgeable”, I assume you must using the royal plural of your church of climocatastophology?
80
Cost Benefit
“There is a supercomputer which has been sitting mainly idle for years because it isn’t yet ready for use. The feeling that some of us get is that this is a classic big IT project which has gone off the tracks.”
60
It is not generally understood that balloon blowing is a diminishing skill.
Plus you need reserve staff to seamlessly continue if continuity fails.
That is why the Automatic Balloon Blowing Apparatus (ABBA) was so successful.
70
‘ … BoM is underfunded …’
Outsourcing must be cheaper, earlier this year there was ‘a testy exchange at Senate Estimates has revealed draft plans to outsource significant work currently performed by the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Digital and Data Group, including platforms and network data centres.’
40
I’ll play devils advocate a bit here. Is there a reduction in need for ballon data because of satellites?? But, if this is a deviation from WMO protocol then surely unacceptable. Who decides weather forecasting accuracy anyway? If its “in house” it cant be trusted. But as we found in recent years, the definition of weather forecasting accuracy will probably be changed. I use a number of weather apps in my work and heavily rely on 7 day forecasting (and longer). Even though these apps appear individual I suspect they still are using data mostly generated from BOM (for Australia). Sorry, ” The Bureau” or as another correspondent called them ” Bunch of Muppets”. In general, those long range forecasts are presently very good. I can generally plan weather related activities at least 5- 7 days out. Particularly for wind and to a lesser degree rain.
40
Thunderstorms not so much – don’t think they even look at CAPE anymore or “the algorithm” has been detuned to cancel it.
BoM would rather be wrong about thunderstorms than right about thunderstorms.
Scare tactics for major city centres are safer for them (and they don’t do the climate catastrophe narrative any harm).
Anyone relying on BoM forecasts for thunderstorms are not getting their moneys worth.
60
Thoroughly agree – but predicting thunderstorms has always been dodgy. Particular for associated hail damage. Most of the horticultural growers previously affected by hail ( eg Cherries) have now nearly all installed protective netting. Weather forecast- who cares?
70
Ross, good question but I would say “No Way”. Satellites cannot replace weatherballoons. The satellite data uses broad channels that send back information from a wide slice of the atmosphere something like five to ten kilometers thick. The weather balloons are sampling and sending data from very accurate tiny slices of the atmosphere as they rise through it.
I don’t think satellites have any chance of separating out the wind speed and direction in layers of jet streams — or the changes in atmospheric pressure from say 7km to 7.5km, but radiosondes do that easily.
The only way we know the satellites are useful at all, is when they are calibrated against the radiosondes.
150
I always love those “spaghetti” charts of all the predicted temp datalines from the battery of useless climate models, when on the same chart (graph) results from weather balloons and satellites are also included. Balloons/ sat data usually tracking way done the bottom of the chart with a slight increase and mostly in agreement. All the climate models arcing up (like a helicopter take- off), way too hot and totally devoid of the reality of real observational data.
60
Jo,
There were other ways that were 100% correct. Air Reps back in the 1970s when airline crew would give weather reports at designated positions all across the country. Then, you had people who knew far more about the weather then BOM people giving temperature, wind, cloud type at specific altitudes and general weather over a wide area.
You also had designated weather stations and reporters at Briefing offices around the country who were qualified to know and report on the weather.
20
R.K. Bless him, a commenter here years ago used to do dropsondes from planes.
I miss Rod Smith https://joannenova.com.au/2010/03/the-mystery-deepens-where-did-that-decline-go/#comment-37556
WXCycles also knows a lot about dropsondes: https://joannenova.com.au/2021/08/weekend-unthreaded-375/#comment-2460825
Before anyone asks, he was very crook early this year, I’ve just fired off an email to see how he is.
20
I presume this is simply an attempt to increase their funding?
40
Just had a silly thought. Could the reduction in balloon launchings be something to do with some department edict regarding reduction in plastic waste? So, no plastic straws, everyone has “keep cups” and so BOM has to reduce possible plastic waste in the environment by reducing weather balloon usage. I mean, you cant get a more stronger definition of “single use” than a weather balloon.
100
Eaten by their own bureaucracy! Similar story for many government technical and science groups that have been swamped with post-modernism. The rot has well and truly set in.
110
We need a Royal Commission and we want it now.
41
I think I understand what is going on here, this phenomenon is seen in every gov. Dept that has a technical component to it.
There is a theoretical maximum number (cap) of APS staff which can be employed in any one department. Most departments want to increase their realm through recruitment but the cap stops them.
There are a number of issues facing APS departments at the moment.
1,The pay is so poor everyone with half a brain is leaving to get a better paid job, the dumb ones stay behind.
2, most departments are run by non technical staff so they don’t understand the technical aspects so they generally force technical staff to leave through utter incompetent.
3, technical positions are replaced by woke uni students who don’t have a clue
The result is departments that are supposed to produce a technical output slowly grind to a halt due to over governess and incompetence.
Look at the defence force as a classic example
81
Are you sure about (1) above? In my admittedly limited experience working with APS staff, it seemed they were paid significantly more than their counterparts in the private sector – and that’s before we factor in their comparative productivity.
40
Not anymore, its around 20-30K gap in wages.
40
We have the same problems in the USA.
Our storm warnings are becoming less accurate. https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/2022/10/does-any-of-this-look-familiar.html This is just one of many, many examples.
In the US, the leadership of the NWS has become ossified. The retirements of meteorologists from the pre-Doppler era has left behind undertrained meteorologists with insufficient experience to handle the rare major event — which is when the public really needs them.
70
Should be good for civil aviation.
50
Currently snowing in SA, 200 klm north of Adelaide.
For some reason I can’t recall that in the weather forecast.
110
MV I remember an elderly relative telling me a similar story from SA many years ago.
Even my Dad told me that snow flakes had hit the ground in the Mallee Vic about 100 years ago, but I’ve yet to see it for myself.
60
BOM was snowed under at the time, a new chum must have pressed the wrong button.
60
It’s been freezing all day here in the foothills with lots of hail. The half-hourly Adelaide temps have been generally 10 or less, but with BoM’s creative 1-second readings, they managed to get 14.7 as today’s max. Risible.
50
A balloon a day keeps the accurate forecasts away…
10km+ puts these balloons in flight paths.
Aren’t they a hazard along with being environmental rubbish in the hundreds a year?
Just use satellute data or look out the BOM window or ask an oldie how their knees are.
30
You need to raise a NOTAM before you go launching balloons.
SATs are not as accurate as a radio sonde
50
Good to hear sonde-derived BOM forecasts are accurate! 😎
40
Radio Sondes are more accurate than SATs, the BOM data derived from sonde data should be considered questionable
60
Can’t recall NOTAMs being raised when met balloons were released. But that was at an outback site.
20
Hi Jo,
I am curious about what happens to balloons once they fall back to earth. Are they collected or do they simply fall into the ocean or land in a remote outback location and therefore cannot be recovered?
Thanks to anyone who can enlighten me.
John
40
They are not recovered.
40
IIRC around the 1950’s you were encouraged to return any that were found. Then they became disposable.
50
I asked the met official at Giles the exact same question, and the answer was the balloons do fall, and it is litter, and they can fall hundreds of kilomters away so are rarely recovered. I have a feeling she mentioned that people can return them if they find them.
I saw on the SondeHub tracker that Russell posted that there was a “chase car” in Melbourne today. I don’t know what that means but it was being tracked too…
60
The Sondes are made to be disposable, some electronics wrapped in a cardboard box.
The battery is a wet cell, yuo add water just before launch and it activates, this is due to lack of atmospheric pressure will cause battery to explode other wise.
There is a basic GPS on board to measure wind shear.
The balloons do fall LOL, the bursting height is dependant on how much helium you put in it, more helium the faster the rise but the bigger the balloon gets and the sooner it pops.
50
Weather balloons can go as high as 35km or 115,000 feet before bursting.
I think “The Bureau” uses Vaisala RS41 radiosondes which have plastic cases. They have a data transmission range of up to 350km.
https://www.vaisala.com/sites/default/files/documents/WEA-MET-RS41SGP-Datasheet-B211444EN.pdf
My understanding based on an old BOM video I saw was that they used hydrogen in the balloons back in the day but they might now use helium which is a waste of this precious gas. Either gas may be used as desired.
50
bursting height is dependant on balloon weight and how much gas you put in it
30
Remember the original valve radiosondes in plastic-coated cardboard boxes?
20
Although located at a Nullarbor site that also had a met station, we never saw any balloon or radiosonde remains when out travelling around. So they must have travelled a long distance. An old wartime radar was used to track their flights, one of the AWA A27x series, similar to the radar fitted to Australian corvettes.
20
What are the chances this will come true
50
That’s a warning not a forecast; it is not important if it is true. As you seem aware of things to do with aviation, warnings are issued when they reach a threshold likelihood as paid up stakeholders could suffer loss or damage if this thing occurs (and it may not or not to the extreme extent) and they don’t act on the possibility..
24
What???
40
“it is not important if it is true. “
Ahh.. and there you have the leftist mentality spelt out loud.
Cause panic and alarm, just for the sake of doing so…. chicken little emulation !!
To the leftist…. it is not important if it is true.
10
“it is not important if it is true. “
ps.. It is what climate alarmism is built on….
… and basically every other leftist meme. !
20
In the realm of possible.
Windy with sporadic showers and long sunny periods here in the middle of Eyre Peninsula. 🙃
40
Forecast here: showers, snow to 600m, possible thunderstorms
Reality: calm, sunny, washing hung out.🤣
50
Two thunderstorms here today (around midday) and about 5 hailstorms, all up 7mm to date. I am about 17kms SSE of Adelaide cbd. Nowhere near Edinburgh in other words.
50
Toxic culture has plunged the Bureau of Meteorology into chaos
The workplace culture at the Bureau of Meteorology is so toxic that a man was hospitalised twice for psychiatric care, another had a heart attack while working extreme overtime, and was asked to come back earlier than a doctor advised, and at least five more staff took stress leave because of panic attacks and anxiety regarding management oversight.
More than 20 staff have left the media and communications division at the BoM in the past 18 months. The entire marketing team at the agency was “bloodlet” and removed during a restructure and rebranding effort that consumed the time and resources of the weather office during a period of intensifying calamity relating to climate change and natural disasters. Senior meteorologists have also left.
Since June last year, the bureau has spent more than $260,000 with Elm Communications Canberra Pty Ltd, just trying to plug gaps in its public affairs workforce.
Although many of the concerns relate to the media division, meteorologists and other staff have complained of “the severe dysfunction” in this area infecting other parts of the service. Gag orders have been issued to prevent forecasters from speaking to journalists unless their comments are pre-approved. Media managers have explicitly banned the mention of climate change in connection with severe weather events.
In one case during major New South Wales flooding in March last year, an edict was issued that BoM forecasters and other specialists were not to speak to any media after a meteorologist was accused of “fluffing” his lines on climate change.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/10/22/exclusive-toxic-culture-has-plunged-the-bureau-meteorology-chaos
Forecast: chronic dysfunction with the chance of obsolescence…
90
The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for ‘enabling a safe, prosperous, secure and healthy Australia through the provision of weather, water, climate and ocean services’.1 The Bureau’s weather forecasts, warnings and analyses support decision-making by governments, industry and the community.
https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/the-bureau-meteorology-delivery-extreme-weather-services
“enabling a safe, prosperous, secure and healthy Australia”
That’s a huge load of bullsh%t if ever I heard it!
70
Gold Star to John Connor II today for either subscribing to or buying that lefty rag – thesaturdaypaper. JC endured the pain so the rest of us dont.
60
No need to subscribe.
As I’ve posted before just hit the ‘stop’ button before the page loads (before the paywall script runs) or use 12ft.io
eg.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thesaturdaypaper.com.au%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2022%2F10%2F22%2Fexclusive-toxic-culture-has-plunged-the-bureau-meteorology-chaos
30
Naughty boy.
31
why bother recording the facts when they already have the theory.
60
BUT!
“Theoretically sound but practically imperfect” usually means it would be a good idea to have another look at the theory.
And why proclaiming that “The science is settled” is a guaranteed losing proposition.
30
“Theoretically sound but practically imperfect” would be junk science imo
30
Helium is becoming very expensive
12
It is a more or less finite commodity and that’s why I am opposed to using He in party balloons and H2 can and should be used in weather balloons if organisations currently use He. (Some use He, some use H2). Helium should be preserved for scientific and medical purposes.
80
Yes, hydrogen in party balloons is more fun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMqYQKMmd3U
20
The Amadeus Basin in the NT is supposed to have good potential for commercial helium.
The only plant to produce it commercially in Australia, is in Darwin as part of the plant that processes gas from the ridiculously large Bayu-Undan field near East Timor.
50
At current rates of He usage it would have to be a very big deposit to last until 2100 even.
10
is that because clowns are becoming all-pervasive?
50
‘Helium is becoming very expensive.’
Yes, which is why the Bureau uses hydrogen.
‘The Bureau uses hydrogen gas to fill its weather balloons. Hydrogen can be explosive when exposed to an ignition source such as a flame, electromagnetic signal or even low level static electricity.’
30
And originally made onsite, a dangerous process. Knew a few gents copping caustic sofa sprays when the valve blew off the cylinder end.
30
Good to know!
10
Helium is becoming very expensiveIrish comedian Dara O’Brien explains why.
Four minutes long – fast forward to the ten minute mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qs3tsR0ztqM
30
Why not adapt ‘Equity’ theory to ‘Climate Change’.
If too many of a socially marginalized group continue to express bad metrics, such as criminal behavior, even after decades of sweeping governmental social engineering …
solve the problem by simply ceasing to arrest the marginalized group and prosecuting them for crimes.
The metrics improve.
This is literally the publicly stated official policy in my US city.
So …
If government is concerned about ‘Climate Crisis’, and despite Herculean effort and expensive, discover the weather is beyond bureaucratic control …
simply stop keeping track of the weather.
No bad data equals success.
The citizenry is left to themselves to prepare and defend against weather.
This the situation with regards to crime in my very Democratic city.
It’s liberating in a Zen kind of way.
And I would like to acknowledge and apologize to the Powhattan Nation for being car jacked on their traditional land. And for the fact that every possible flat surface is covered in graffiti.
(Even 25 feet from the ground … haven’t figured out how they do that one yet.)
50
They want to make life easy for themselves and live their dream.
Go full propaganda.
They completed their apprenticeship years ago.
The new Marxist government will approve it in a flash.
40
Scandals of Old Adelaide
Many years ago the Saturday arvo races were at the Cheltenham race course (long since sub-divided) and it was raining heavily. Ensconced in the race callers box was Alf Gard. The box was situated a long way from the Grand Stand and Alf was getting upset. Alf was ‘a character’ – ex fighter pilot etc. and not noted for regard for those in ‘authority’, but he was a very good race caller. He was getting upset by the delays and lack of decision about the races. The first race started late, the second even more delayed as the Stewards dealt with a revolt by the jockeys, and the third delayed even more as the riders went on strike.
The afternoon commentator said “and now we cross to Alf Gard for the latest from Cheltenham” and headed off for tea and socialising in the canteen. Alf was in full flight and after remarks about the rain being too heavy to see if Noah had launched his ark etc. he had more than a few words about The Weather Bureau and their forecast. Included was his suggestion of a bit of rope nailed to a piece of wood and mounted outside their window so that “if the rope swayed from side to side they would know it was windy outside, and if it dripped water” – but I am sure you get the idea.
His diatribe was cut short by the recording engineer who claimed the line to Cheltenham had been lost and played some music while he tried to get the announcer out of the canteen.
This caused some outrage, not all directed at Alf. The local paper was filled with letters etc. until a few days later there was a reply from the Weather Bureau in which they pointed out the difficulty of being right all the time, indeed they instanced that they only met expected guidelines about 30% of the time over the last 3 months. The letter then ended “we note that Mr. Gard himself makes predictions about the coming winners of horse races and over the last 3 months has been correct about 10% of the time”.
The Editor banned all further correspondence.
40
If you think this is bad, here in the UK the Met Office, which is an executive agency of the government, is a key partner in the UK Climate Resilience program, which sets out possible Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) due to climate change.
In SSP2 the National Health Service gets privatised. SSP3 sees the UK break up and a surge in “right-wing populism”; the police and justice system cease to exist, militias rise to power, and armed conflict, terrorism and riots occur. People resort to subsistence farming. Here is SSP3, and to see the other SSPs you can change the digit ‘3’ in the URL:
https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/UK-SSP3-ScenarioFactSheet.pdf
In SSP4, “society is more divided than ever… to keep the general population in line, governments introduce military conscription”.
In contrast, in SSP1 – an optimistic scenario – “the UK re-enters a progressive and expanded European Union”.
The politicisation is blatant and disgraceful.
50
Only a bit off topic… but still related.
A great post on WUWT about UK’s electricity green cul-de-sac….. with a one way road. !
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/01/uk-trapped-in-the-green-energy-cul-de-sac/
Good luck to them and their country’s future….. they are going to need one heck of a bunch of it ! 😉
70
How dare you!
Every progressive person knows it’s not the actual weather that matters, it’s what the climate feels like that does.
It may be 9C in Adelaide but it feels burning hot! And that is all the fault of Donald Trump and Climate Change.
70
Talking of Donald, he hired Happer to bust up the climatariat, but was swayed by political considerations to shelve the thought bubble.
‘And though Trump was keenly interested in Happer’s ideas, they ignited opposition among White House advisers who viewed the plan to openly attack climate research as a risk to Trump’s prospects for reelection.’ (Science)
10
Slightly off-topic, but you can’t beat this story from NASA. “Common pollutants from cars and industry” help break down methane in the atmosphere:
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2829/greenhouse-gas-detergent-recycles-itself-in-atmosphere-nasa-study/
60
Aren’t “The Bureau” also destroying early hand written weather station records?
Also, they simply ignore all data from before 1910. Nothing to see there except a previous warm period. If it was included they wouldn’t be able to claim supposed warming.
Back in the day, scientists and technicians were taught to never destroy original data and to keep a laboratory notebook.
But The Bureau are no longer practicing science so perhaps no longer relevant to them.
70
Subtropical jet stream clashes with a band in the polar jet.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/australia-getting-hammered-by-two-jet-streams/900250
10
It is a logical step for ‘the bureau’. Why take measurements when your computer models tell you all you need to know.
20
Statement from the Bureau of Meteorology
26/10/2022
“We have also commenced the delivery of forecasts and warnings in the languages of First Nations people as well as Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Australians.”
“For many years we have provided evidence that climate change is real and it is very likely human activities have caused most of the global warming we have observed since 1950.”
“Like any large organisation, there are times when we don’t get it right.”
50
” … it is very likely human activities have caused most of the global warming we have observed since 1950.”
That is patently wrong, oceanic oscillations are the main drivers and well outside any human activities.
30
There are so many things wrong with that statement, I don’t know where to begin.
40
The Bureau of Useless Meteorology? BUM?
40
As Jo has pointed out, the BOM are a bunch of liars. ACORN 1 and ACORN 2 proved that. They cannot be trusted, and that includes so-called “warnings” for graziers and farmers. This mob couldn’t predict tomorrow’s weather.
10
[…] blog of the day is Jo Nova, with a post on the Australian Bureau Of Meteorology cutting back on weather […]
10
The aim is to experience “unexpected” weather that can then be blamed on climate change … climate change is so bad that we cannot predict the weather any more. If it is government, it lies.
10