It’s a testament to how far the spirit of Christmas has spread. The nations that don’t have a public holiday for Christmas are marked in brown.
…
Lighter brown countries (China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) don’t have a public holiday but are described as “giving observance”.
Albeit “some jurisdictions of the Eastern Orthodox Church, including those of Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Jerusalem, mark feasts using the older Julian calendar”. Those nations celebrate on January 7th.
Map by Nanib , Skriplerio, Moyogo
Seasons Greetings to One and All.
Best Regards
Climate Heretic
100
Merry Christmas to all! I wonder how long it will be recognised in the woke state of Victoria.
90
We now refer to it as “happy festive season” or else we lose social credits .
110
I’m pretty sure I am already negative in terms of social credits, so I’ve got nothing left to lose!!
50
It’s still Merry Christmas to me. 🙂
70
We could do with a bit more peace and goodwill around the world and a little less climatephobia.
Seasons Greetings.
100
Yes and I believe that the various Orthodox Churches celebrate ‘Christmas’ on a different day to us on the 25th of December. How does anyone know that this is the real date anyway. Peace and Goodwill? Tell them that they are dreaming (The Castle).
30
Russian Serbian and Ukrainian Orthodox churches celebrate Christmas on the 7th January (I have probably missed some juristIctions). Greek, Antioichian, Orthodox Church Of America celebrate on the 25th December. They are referred to as new calendar churches in the Orthodox World.
30
But the “real date” of what?
The etymology of “Christmas” (ie its original contextual meaning) implies an association with “the mission of the anointed one” in the context of 4th century Christian theology.
The link to the 25th December date arose from Roman emperor Aurelian associating the “Sol Invictus” festival date (linked to Roman army Mithraism rites) to early Christian celebrations for political reasons.
20
And the Mesopotamian festival of Zagmuk, literally ‘the beginning of the year’, held in December and continuing for twelve days, celebrating the victory of Marduk over the forces of Chaos.
The early Christian church did not begin formally celebrating Christmas on December 25 until 336 AD, during the reign of the emperor Constantine, who had made Christianity the effective religion of the empire; there is speculation that this was done to weaken the established pagan celebration. The date was not widely accepted in the eastern empire, where January 6 was favored, and December 25 was not accepted for another half-century, and Christmas did not become a major Christian festival until the 9th century AD.
10
Yes and I believe that the various Orthodox Churches celebrate ‘Christmas’ on a different day to us on the 25th of December. How does anyone know that this is the real date anyway.
Christians know that it is not the real date of Jesus’ birth. It’s the date we commemorate His birth.
People born on Feb 29 rarely get to celebrate their birthday on “the real date”. That doesn’t mean they don’t celebrate it at all.
10
All the best for Christmas 2022 and let’s all hope for a better New Year in 2023.
Thanks Jo for all your hard work and I’ll be sending something in the New year. Just sorry I haven’t so far.
60
Merry Christmas all…..many thanks for your extraordinary efforts over the year Jo ….and the many bloggers who have kept me informed and entertained …
60
Merry Christmas and best wishes to Jo, David and the kids, and to all her commenters here. Here’s hoping that the truth will dawn on Blackout Bowen before too late. The Johannes Leak cartoon this weekend is a bewdy!
40
12 days of christmas! Not 1. Such ignorance is common now.
Christ has nothing to do with ‘Jesus’. It is to do with the Sun/Helios. Perihelion occurs on the 12th day. The Earth’s orbit is an ellipse and closest approach occurs around about 6/7th January.
Not the Julian calendar.
The Earth was born of the Sun. That is the birth we actually celebrate. We will be reminded of this when a new planet is born in 31 years time.
Timing is forecast in the Parable of the Carpenter’s Son.
26
“when a new planet is born in 31 years time.”
hmm.. I’ll struggle to be here to see it.. got any details?
30
Thanks from me and Seasons Greetings to all. Although biased, just gotta say that the Melbourne Carols leave the Sydney ones for dead, and being a time of goodwill will pass on the attire.
40
Ah Xmas day…
Being an oldie and draining my bank account helping Jo fight the good fight, I can now tuck in to my cold leftover pizza. /humour
Happy xmas all. 😇
60
Brings a tear to the eye.🥰
https://youtu.be/GMuhj_aO3QE
40
By “humour” do you mean it is true but you don’t interpret it in a bad way?
40
It’s increasingly hard, but then again may not be, to post anything unambiguous. 😎
It’s mostly true and I don’t see it as bad.
I have a can of Fanta to wash it down. Bonus!
60
Thanks for patiently answering.
There is no such thing as a stupid question, only impatient people who expect everyone else has telepathy and didn’t arrange to distribute said telepathic powers prior to needing them.
Well done for finding gratitude in small things.
It is one thing to have hope and enthusiasm while one is still unblemished, sponsored, and brilliant, but quite an altogether more unfathomable achievement to preserve hope and enthusiasm in the face of aging, losses, and bitter memory.
100
Journalists are always asking stupid questions.
Here is an example. At least I thought it was a stupid question until I heard the answer.
Journalist, addressing Ken Booth, ALP treasurer in the NSW government in the 1980s, a former school teacher: “But what if the government becomes bankrupt?”
His reply: “It’s not possible for a government to be bankrupt.”
The election of the Greiner government rescued NSW from that government. Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia were not so lucky.
00
I know it’s xmas day, but this is too good to pass up.
https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1606719502535856129
Stay warm Greta.🤣🤣
80
Merry Christmas from a wet Margaret River.
100
Nice map.
I never realised Antarctica was soooooo big.
Now i understand why it has such a dramatic effect on Global Warming.
Wonderful festive season to all…
80
Map projection make it look quite big
Actual areas are..
Area Australia… approx 7.7 million km²
Area Antarctic… approx 14.2 million km²
40
The projection distorts the size somewhat.
This gives a better view:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-230.32,-83.54,323
Antarctica is close to twice the area of Australia. About 50% bigger than Canada and a tad smaller in area than Russia.
40
Classic Mercator projection distorts land mass sizes the further they are from the equator. Hence the enormous apparent size of Antarctica and northern Russia.
00
The 7th January date for Christmas in the Eastern Christian tradition was not about the changeover of calendars to adjust for the more correct year length as the Georgian calendar was nearly three months out. The date of Christmas with the calendar was a different matter.
The Christian church was particular good, like the Romans themselves, at adapting and absorbing local customs, gods and religions.It was argued to be a strategic move to take over the big Saturnalia festival or the celebration of Sol Invictus on 25th December. Sol was a major god before Christianity and explains why the saints were shown with a gold disc over their heads, later a gold halo.
But Christmas remained on 6th January in Eastern Christian traditions. However it was not considered a major festival in most countries until the 9th century.
A lot of traditions have actually been imported from America as they were wiped out in the iconoclastic Protestant revolutions in Britain. (as were the Scottish kilt patterns after the Jacobite/James revolution. All the new kilts are made up)
The carols in particular were lost and the ones we know are recent inventions from the 19th century. The Christmas tree was a German tradition introduced by Prince Albert and in the US they caused a lot of problems major with fires until the invention of the electric light bulb.
Father Christmas in the foundation 1822/1844 American poem “the Night before Christmas” St. Nicholas/Father Christmas was an elf, only 6″ (150mm) high, which is how he made it down the universal chimneys of the time. The modern red suited large Father Christmas was a marketing image from the 1880s.
And as a boy I had never seen a turkey. Nor had most Englishmen and they believed this entirely new big bird was actually from Turkey.
There is just so much which has been US marketing invention and now considered a time honored tradition, when almost all has been created in the last two centuries.
A friend, a former Jesuit and PhD in Theology wrote a short book some years ago on all the origins of the traditions. It was very popular and a lot of fun and now on Amazon.
30
TdeF:
I’ve seen a report of turkeys being driven down (walking) from Norfolk to London in 1720.
And I refer you to A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens published 1843.
I grant you that they were rare in Australia for Christmas and probably for most working class (or lower) in England.
40
Clearly these were unlicensed turkeys, not allowed on public transport. We have galahs on the roads in Australia over Christmas.
One of the great treasures of all adventurers was new food and the new world in the Americas gave us so much, especially potatoes and tomatoes and chilli and maize which was confusingly called corn despite the fact that corn was grain up to then and the infamous Corn laws had nothing to do with corn as we know it. Tobacco. And equivalent but not identical animals like bison which were called buffalo. And possums which were called opossum. Jaguars not leapards. Cougars not lions. And they had eaten all the horses which once roamed around the Americas. It was a very different world. With turkeys not guinea fowl.
Anyway I am not surprised that sailors brought back turkeys from the Raleigh settlement in the 1600s. The association with Christmas though was a major development especially as the other large bird, swans, were the exclusive right of the Regent.
For Australians at Easter and Christmas it was a chicken which was the luxury but slowly turkeys have become popular. And strangely, lobsters. An entirely Australian view of Christmas in a hot country at Christmas.
50
And I found this “The first turkeys are believed to have been brought into Britain in 1526 by a Yorkshireman named William Strickland. He managed to get hold of a few turkeys from American Indian traders on his travels and sold them for tuppence each in Bristol.” This even predates the Raleigh settlement under Queen Elizabeth in Roanoke Virginia in 1585! I can only assume that the Spanish brought them to Europe after 1492.
50
It’s one of the wonders of early exploration, the very rapid movement of new food. Columbus brought back chilli and tomatoes. You cannot imagine Italy without both and potatoes. But it did not stop there. Within only 20 years chilli had made it around Africa to India and Thailand and Szechuan, hot areas without refrigeration and chillis quickly became the signature spice of their cuisine.
50
Merry Christmas to all. If you are one who prays, please pray for the Christians in India, who are under attack from their Hindu countrymen. India is now the 10th-most dangerous country in the world for Christians. Eight years ago, India wasn’t even in the top 30.
101
Saudi Arabia is in fact a darker brown country, which is appropriate.
00
so an enforced holiday in the name of a religious dogma. what could be better
210
A nation built on forgiveness and humility and a day to give gifts. How horrible, eh?
If you were forced to be on holiday, tell us, were you forced to be paid for it too?
140
Tell that to the original inhabitants.
Of more interest is that you ignore the reason for the holiday – namely the birth of Christ and talk about 1950’s white, middle class values.
The holiday is mandated here, your beliefs (including gift giving) are immaterial, just like the vaccine was mandated for most workplaces, travel etc etc, and your belief in the vaccine was immaterial.
If you are not a Christian, should you have the freedom to ignore this day?
Or is the freedom you espouse that available in ‘Leave it to Beaver’?
05
Peter, wow. Since you avoided my question I’ll assume you were paid to sit home and do nothing with no one. Somehow you feel this is equivalent to being injected with an experimental treatment that may shorten your life or cause potentially permanent pain and injury. What can I say? I feel sorry for you that spending time with your family or friends is like myocarditis. Maybe you should spend less time on blogs and more time making friends?
You do of course have the freedom to ignore gift giving, Christmas, and work on Christmas Day and probably to get paid triple time for it. Your main suffering then was that Myers was shut and your materialistic instincts were deprived for a day. Cry me a river.
You have the freedom to leave Australia and live in a nation which doesn’t celebrate Christmas. Tell me how wonderful their freedoms are?
50
I actually did a lot of work on Christmas day..
No pay either.
You really ought to join the human race…. just for one day !
10
“should you have the freedom to ignore this day? “
Feel free to do so…
Start a cafe….. be of service to others on Christmas Day.
I know of several that open for that purpose, particularly in “woke” areas, where the “woke” have to have their daily decaf soy lattes.
But for you own sake… do SOMETHING with your tedious, empty life !
10
Peter should give back his enforced holiday pay or alternatively donate it to a genuinely worthy charity such as sponsoring African children to go to school so they don’t have to work in the slave cobalt and lithium mines.
30
Wow, some people really are TOTALLY MISERABLE all their life, aren’t they !
That’s far-leftists, though.
50
Of the numerous things Leftists seek to destroy one of them is Judeo-Christian religion as it provides many of the foundational legal and ethical, moral and legal principles upon which Western Civilisation is based.
50
Too much egg nog Peter Fitzroy ?
20
Actually, Merry Christmas Peter Fitzroy .
40
And do at least try to have A Happy New Year 🙂
20
You wouldn’t so critical about any indigenous animist religion or the numerous followers of a certain 6th century warlord would you Peter?
80
Gig economy workers (and professionals with contracts) only get paid when they work…..
Opportunity calls Peter
10
Instead of whining and complaining about everyone and everything, perhaps you might bless us all with your preferred version of reality.
It is one thing to criticize one thing or another, but your numerous posts imply that everything that anyone thinks, believes, or strives for, are failures. But not one single time have you ever offered anything of substance in the alternative.
It must be lonely to be forever disgruntled, forever wrong, forever unhappy. I pity your existence.
On the bright side, the opposite of whatever position you promote, is likely the better choice, so thanks for that.
20
Read avidly, then act with caution!
“EV Non-Charging In The Cold”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2022/12/25/ev-non-charging-in-the-cold/
20
Lithium batteries require a heating source before being charged if at 0 or below and even then most should have a controller that prohibits charging at very low temps , my setup is set to 4 degrees minimum. At zero / below there is a chemical reaction that takes place when charged that can severely reduce the life span of the batteries. A heating pad or electric blanket is needed for cold climates , some setups sold in Oz do have an inbuilt heating pad .
20
That’s an interesting snippet. So, is there a danger if an EV is charged at below freezing point?
20
Only danger is a severely reduced battery life as far as I’m aware .
20
Yesterday it was +6F during the day here. Windchill-25F. I assume a charge would have been nearly useless. In Chicago, not far from us, it was -2F during the day. The Windy City didn’t even need wind to be cold. I wonder how those EV owners faired there.
30
So if you have a completely flat battery and it is 0C or less, a battery cannot be charged without serious damage? Or at least the battery needs to be warmed before charging. And that would take a considerable time with a warming blanket, regardless of voltage if you had say a Tesla’s 600kg battery at -20C. So much for fast charging.
40
Tesla owner says he had to cancel Christmas plans because car would not charge in freezing weather
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/tesla-owner-says-cancel-christmas-plans-car-would-not-charge-freezing-weather
40
That may confirm it. The battery is too cold and to prevent destruction, charging is not permitted until the 600kg battery warms up.
40
Why did we not know this?
00
Your correct Tdef , they need an elecky blanky. Always made me wonder about the big battery in SA because it does get cold there . How much power is consumed keeping it warm .
50
And of course they can’t get too hot either so like all forms of new age electricity storage or generation they need to be called “Goldilocks “ . Can’t be too windy or not windy enough , can’t be too cloudy or too hot just sunny enough , can’t have too much water in a system or not enough for hydro etc etc .
70
So begins the horror the locals call the ’12 days of shackies’.
The 12+ days of long weekends when shack owners descend on our community artificially increasing the local population by 400% that will only end with the Easter bank holiday.
When every weekend these interlopers disrupt our paradise with randomly loud late night music, Dogs that are profoundly antisocial but bought to the beach at all hours despite local council ordinances, off leash in order to maximise inflicted damage on children and passer-by’s.
When council waste bins are filled to overflowing, because they do not pay for council collections on their undeveloped block, despite parking their ‘caravan’ there all year round.
Where the locals spend their mornings, afternoons and evening ‘plogging’ the rubbish, bottles & goonbags left uncaringly on the community’s beach.
Where jet skiers and BBQer’s ignore crown land provisions that intend for cars to park off the beach, rather than on the beach.
Where power boat owners drive the local pod of Dolphins from our waters until late March, when it is too cold to swim with them for free – when they are not actively trying to kill all swimmers that frolic within 50 yards of the shore.
Merry freaking Xmas!
50
l wish for the days when we had a tourist season where the local area would fill up with the city folk from Melbourne crowding everything so we locals cant get access and are put out by all the extra traffic ect….
but since the Melbourne lockdowns my area shows no difference in the holiday season anymore as the Melbournites have fled the metro area to live in the regional area instead
l do not blame them at all
Merry Christmas to everyone with the hope of common sense becoming more common in our future
20
Merry Christmas one and all.
May this coming new year be a good year for the light of Truth to shine down from a supercell full of lies.
20
I went to a Xmas party and few of the men began taking about the cool weather, needless to say my theory was laughed at.
They said you have been saying for 20 years that global cooling is happening and to add further insult, they said all extreme weather is because of global warming and ‘99% of scientists can’t be wrong’.
I had all the answers but they shouted me down.
41
You deserve to be scolded for telling porkies.
On average the globe is not cooling. North America this weekend is experiencing a huge dose of global warming. This is what global warming really looks like. The NH oceans are getting warmer in summer; easily verified with reliable data series:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/isstoi_v2_0-360E_0-90N_n.png
The NH land temperature is increasing mostly in winter. Again easily verified with not so reliable data series:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ighcn_cams_05_0-360E_0-90N_n.png
The warm oceans produce more snow and more snow warms the land surface in winter when it is being formed. Again easily verified by snow trends:
https://i0.wp.com/fabiusmaximus.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/rutgers-na-snow-winter-extent.jpg
Most global warming is occurring on land north of 40N in winter when the surface is frozen. That is easily confirmed.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ighcn_cams_05_0-360E_40-90N_n.png
Note the minimum well below freezing.
This current NH warming cycle has only been going on for about 1000 years but only really producing observable trends in the past 200 years with good instruments. It will go on for the next 11,000 years and at the end of the period the oceans will be 40m lower than the present level.
So far only Greenland and Iceland are gaining permanent ice extent but that will change over the next few centuries.
There will be noise in these trends due to solar disturbances and weather impacts such as volcanoes but these trends into and out of glaciation have been locked in for almost 2 million years and there is no reason for them to change now. The only problem is that a whole lot of incompetent prognosticators believe what they are observing is caused by CO2 rather than orbital precession.
You will always have difficulty proving global cooling because the global average temperature will be trending up for well beyond your lifetime.
When you think that oceans will fall at 4mm per year during the rapid stage of glaciation, the NH oceans need to get a lot warmer yet. I can see opportunity for positive feedback but the current levels of snowfall are not even reversing the northern advance of the permafrost yet.
The thing to look out for are new snowfall records; glaciers gaining elevation and extent; NH snow cover extent trending up; snow piles taking longer to melt; earlier snowfall.
The SH will be different. the cooling trend will gradually advance northward. The BoM have squeezed about all they can out of homogenisation and the trends in the SH are moving toward cooling. The SH is mostly ocean, which makes it a big ship to turn. Some of the brine that sank at the sea ice formation in the Southern Ocean 1400 years ago to warm the ocean abyss is yet to resurface. Very long thermal lag as well as high thermal inertia.
All this is factual with readily verifiable data.It is easy enough to disprove CO2 does anything by looking at the output of climate models in detail. The warming is not happening like they predict. They are now coming out and saying they actually predicted the snowfall to go up but that is a recent fiddle. Greenland gaining elevation and permanent ice extend is testing their resolve to spin BS. But I expect to see the Arctic Ocean ice free in summer. That is one way of accelerating the early snowfall.
Once the models get to predict ice accumulating, which it is, it a small step to argue the process has only just started, which it has. So the modellers are forming the noose that hangs them.
30
My current response to any question about climate change and global warming is:
Most global warming is occurring on land north of 40N in winter when the land surface is below freezing. Greenland the poster child where the January temperature has risen almost 10C in the last 70 years from -30C to -20C. That is what global warming really looks like.
It is also worth noting that Greenland has gained 170mm in elevation in the past decade and is trending toward 100% permanent ice cover by 2070.
This all happened four times in the past 500k years and is correctly termed the termination of the modern interglacial. It is not “global warming”. And it is not caused by CO2.
30
That does not say there is Global Warming. It says the air temperature above Greenland has increased. And the question is why?
And this without any consequence except that the ice block above Greenland has increased dramatically in height which indicates that the warming in summer is more than offset overall. Still more freezing than warming, so perhaps a reduced oscillation.
“In Greenland, the summers are warm; the winters are freezing, snowy, and windy; and it is partly cloudy year round. Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from -7°C to 27°C and is rarely below -15°C or above 32°C.” which is at sea level on the coast.
However like Antarctica, it is the height of the ice in the middle which is never discussed. “The ice surface reaches its greatest altitude on two north–south elongated domes, or ridges. The southern dome reaches almost 3,000 metres (10,000 ft) at latitudes 63°–65°N; the northern dome reaches about 3,290 metres (10,800 ft) at about latitude 72°N”
So you are talking about the temperature on top of a mountain of ice at nearly 11,000′ in the air. That is not sea level and the phenomena are different. “As you climb a mountain, you can expect the air temperature to decrease by 6.5 degrees C for every 1000 meters you gain.”
My guess for the change in temperature is the Atlantic oscillation as the sun cannot do this and the air has very little heat capacity so cycles in the ocean around Greenland have changed very slightly.
Global Warming the theory is about CO2 and reflected infra red. It does not explain ocean warming and the oceans control all climates, not the air.
I would not use the temperature in mid winter on the top of an 11,000′ block of solid ice as indicative of Global Warming. Rather I would look to the AMO Atlantic Multi Decadal Osciallation. ““One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day;”
40
Not quite, your should add most in January. Almost impossible to get a 2000m thick ice block above 0C. So June temperature is not changing.
Greenland indicates what much of the land north of 40N willl look like in 11,000 years. But it requires a lot more ocean heat for the ice to accumulate.
40
Summer or winter, the temperature above 3,000 metres is always freezing at that latitude and altitude. It is a very poor place to draw conclusions, reaching into the stratosphere and a different world from the troposphere where humans live except small numbers in Tibet and Peru.
A slightly warmer ocean means more evaporation so more snow and thus more ice.
I have been across Siberia and it is lovely in summer and all the animals head north for the long days and rapid growth. Murmansk at 70 North is a city of 360,000 people and that is at the very top latitude of Greenland which stretches from 42N to 70N. The North Pole would be a better measure at sea level and people measure that by sea ice extent and thickness which oscillates and was supposed to be gone by now, but it is about normal.
But in winter it is still terrible and inland is far worse. This business of playing with averages and cherry picking locations proves nothing and an increase in places in Greenland at the very top of a giant ice block proves nothing except that someone has scoured the record to try to find somewhere and sometime where temperatures have actually increased. We saw this in the UK this year where they found a place near an airport which actually reached 40C. What a surprise. Global Warming.
20
That logic is not right. If the ice determines summer temperatures, why not winter temperatures. In fact only the surface of the ice has any contact with the air. As they have found recently, the temperature in a bore hole in the ice exactly matches the historic temperatures of the time. That is amazing. You can lower a thermometer and accurately plot ancient temperature history.
So once frozen the ice is oblivious to anything but the ice above. Which makes sense as it has 1400x the heat capacity of the air above. As I wrote, you look to other phenomena to explain variation but in the stratosphere where the air is less than half the normal density, temperature variations do not take as much energy. I would look to the oceans which surround the island of Greenland which is nowhere near as big as it looks on a Mercator projection. It is 1,000km wide and 2600km tall and the gulf stream passes, a remarkable hot water source.
20
Greenland, Hudson Bay and Arctic Ocean are the regions where most warming is occurring. Obviously a 2000m thick ice block is not going to get above 0C. But the minimum has increased 10C over 70 years. This is where “global warming” is the most noticeable. Most global warming is occurring on freezing land. You may not view that as “global warming” but when reduced to an anomaly, it is a temperature increase.
The only way the minimum can increase where there is no sunlight is due to heat advection from oceans warmer than -1.7C and that inevitably results in snow fall.
The NH is only 1000 years into the current warming cycle. Summer solar intensity has increased by 1W/m^2 and it will go up another 19W/m^2. NH oceans will get a lot more surface up to 30C but the land will not cool until the permanent ice extent increases. So far permafrost is still retreating.
It is silly to argue there is no “global warming” because, on average, the global surface temperature in increasing. Hoping for it to cool is just hopeful. It has only just started to warm up in the NH. Eventually most of the SH will develop a cooling trend. So far only south of 55S is cooling on average.
In 2020 the December solar EMR was 180PW. In June 2020 the solar EMR was 169PW. In 11,000 years these numbers will be reversed for the hemispheres. The SH is just 1000 years past its highest solar input for this precession cycle and the NH about 1000 years past its minimum. The SH does not respond much to solar input because it just produces more rain on tropical land – rightly termed the wet season for those living near the equator.
Rather than a wet season, the NH will experience more intense snowfall as the NH oceans warm up. It is the nature of the distribution of the land in the NH.
20
Trouble is Rick, your theory is unfalsifiable.
21
Not my theory. It is all just factual evidence. I am pointing out that it is what has happened 4 times in the past 500k years under similar orbital circumstances.
The question is why would this time be any different?
Glaciation requires a lot of heat. Even the modellers are starting to realise that they have to predict more snow due to ocean warming. The land surface only cools down when the snow becomes permanent and the lapse rate reduces the temperature at the elevating land ice.
10
So where else has there been an increase of 10C except at 11,000′ in the stratosphere on a block of ice.
20
Greenland plateau is the poster child of “global warming”. January on Greenland is where it is warming most. I have not found anywhere else for any month that has warmed more than the Greenland plateau is January.
The Arctic Ocean is warming strongly in September but no more than about 3C per century:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/isstoi_v2_0-360E_80-90N_n.png
That is a similar rate of rise to the August surface temperature for all ocean north of 20N.
20
Greenland is 2.16 million square miles out of 197 million square miles It’s contribution to any global average is 1%. If someone could explain why it is warmer in winter now, that would be interesting, but that is not Global Warming.
20
‘The question is why would this time be any different?’
A large volcanic eruption or asteroid impact alters the equation.
00
But the orbital cycles are well defi=ned in the sea level record. The precession cycle the most frequent and most definite in the sea level reconstruction.
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhHJSnLG5reRePFRT?e=rI8toe
This sea level data was not available to Milankovitch. So I have the advantage of much more information and better tools for analysis of data.
https://cp.copernicus.org/preprints/11/3699/2015/cpd-11-3699-2015-supplement.pdf
Also I only look at measurable energy from the sun not the unreal stuff thought to come from CO2.
30
‘Wavelet analysis shows the ~ 1000-year periodicity having a strong signal between 11,500 and 4,000 yr BP, and between 2,000 and 0 yr BP, but a very low signal between 4,000 and 2,000 yr BP.
‘The average duration of the ~ 1000-year cycle can be calculated from the grand solar minimum at 11,115 yr BP to the one at 1,265 yr BP. for ten periods at 985 years, a span in very good agreement with the calculated 970 years from frequency analysis and the calculated 983.4 years from astronomical cycles.’ (Javier / Climate Etc)
00
How do your orbital cycles differ to the Milankovitch cycles?
10
They are not my cycles or “MilanKkvitch” cycles. They are just orbital cycles. Milankovitch was one of the first to recognise their connection to glaciation. I just have a lot more data available to connect the dots coherently.
There is a wide held belief that Earth was in energy balance in 1850. Earth can never be in energy balance.
In a subtle way climate modellers have a logical inconsistency because they start with an assumption that there was an energy balance in 1850. They introduce and surface energy imbalance then have the oceans accumulating heat for hundreds of years due to that tiny imbalance.
There can never be an energy balance because of Earth’s orbital precession and the different distribution of land and water across the hemisphere. Water has a vastly different response to solar forcing than land and orbital precession guarantees the solar forcing is continually changing.
The linked paper goes into considerable detail on the MOC and abyssal circulation in the oceans and shows that some water does not see the surface for up to 1800 years.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24648-x#Fig5
Even the MOC, that is confined to hemisphere, has hundreds of years in circulation. So the oceans have long memories. And heat cannot be transported into deep oceans from the surface in decades. The only way deep ocean temperature can change in decades is through changes in evaporation. For deep oceans to warm the evaporation has to slow down and that is being observed with reduced river runoff. But the winter advection onto NH land is increasing.
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Some bottom water reaches the surface in double quick time.
Three consecutive La Nina has produced a large pool of cold water south of the equator, transported from the deep Southern Ocean via the Peru Current. As mentioned previously, a marine heatwave has closed that avenue and you will notice the warm El Nino heading west.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-125.58,-30.70,267/loc=-123.144,-23.185
My money is on a Modoki El Nino late next year, what do you think will happen?
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Yes, no one wants to hear real comment. You cannot differ from the Global Warming faith, even when it is 10C colder than you remember.
Consider that the worst Global Warming predicted from CO2 is less than 0.02C per year! That means this year should be on average 0.02C warmer than last year. Wow. Run for the hills! You could not even feel +1C and that would take 50 years.
And yet when we in Australia have the coldest summer in living memory or in America the coldest winter in 40 years and Florida is frozen, that is Global Warming?
There is such a huge disparity between what is predicted and reality that it is hard to credit that anyone really thinks the planet is rapidly and dangerously warming and that +1.5C is devastating? Or that the seas are rising quickly. Where is this Global Warming now known as Climate Change? How does +0.02 in an average create such a storm? It’s nuts.
But as we happily celebrate the birth of a baby 2000 years ago in Bethlehem, a baby to become a victim of state oppression at only 33, a baby whose ideas freed the slaves and changed the world for the better, I am loathe to make fun of anyone’s religion. It’s certainly no time to be a Climate Atheist or Climate Woke and poke fun at people’s beliefs. The fact is that most places would welcome +1.5C, not that it would make any difference.
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But in the case of Global Warming, the inability to see the total disconnect between facts and predictions does explain why nett zero resonates as science. Spend trillions, turn off all the power and starve and hope the terrible warming goes away. Nett zero intelligence.
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Kiss a whale for Christmas (a quick video)
https://twitter.com/TansuYegen/status/1605812328196251648?s=20&t=O5AUEElA9PIhCIt1GEF51A
Here’s to a Whale of a New Year. Go skeptics!
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‘ … it is hard to credit that anyone really thinks the planet is rapidly and dangerously warming and that +1.5C is devastating?’
It was a surreal moment watching the insanity streaming from their mouths, they sincerely believe all the propaganda.
I mentioned that the MSM leans to the left on this issue but they didn’t see that as a problem. We appear to be on the road to a one party state.
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And that 1.5C is 80 years from now, except that the recent short warming has ceased after the little Ice Age ended in 1870.
The well documented last 250 years has been explained extremely well from the little ice age to the peak at 2000 including 9 inflexions by two and only two cycles, the 250 year solar De Vries cycle and the 60 year AMO/PDO ocean osciallation. The idea that the atmosphere controls the weather is absurd. It can freeze in one night from +40 to -40 where the ocean never changes because it can’t. And all our heat, all our weather comes from the sun and the oceans.
Man made CO2 caused rapid global warming is utterly busted. In fact as I have shown many times, man made CO2 is busted with <3% of CO2 man made. This has been well known for over 60 years by the Royal Society no less. And Henry's Law, a 200 year old law of physical chemistry, explains the slightly higher CO2 levels. Slightly warmer ocean cycles means slightly more CO2. So what?
If anyone is really scared about +1.5C over 80 years and virtually no adult alive today will be alive then for that terrible heat, they are nuts. You cannot even see 1.5C on your thermostat because it does not matter. And Antarctica and Greenland at over 11,000 feet/3500 metres are not melting any time soon.
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‘ … the 250 year solar De Vries cycle and the 60 year AMO/PDO ocean osciallation.’
Yep, I like the simplicity, good science.
Temperatures were flat up until 2014 and then the PDO returned to its positive phase and produced strong El Nino. Now temperatures are plateauing again, as we wait for the AMO to fit into sync, which should take temperatures down.
https://weather.plus/pdo-index.php
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The increasing snowfall currently being observed in the NH means the global average has to go up. When snow forms, it makes the land warmer than it otherwise would be by reducing the heat loss to space.
The ocean oscillations and solar sunspots are just noise in long trends.
You will still be hoping for a cooling trend on your death bed because I know you will not see out the thousand years or so before the ice starts accumulating enough to reduce the average temperature. You may see most of the SH in cooling trend. And BoM will need to revise their homogenisation process to keep Australia temperature trending upward.
The sunspot influence on tropical ocean temperature is near the bottom of the cycle. It is up from here. There is also an El Nino somewhere in the futrure. Maybe not the next one but the one after could be close to 2016 or even higher. Meanwhile the oceans in the northern hemisphere have to warm relentlessly with ever increasing area hitting the 30C limit in August.
Hoping that there will be a sustained cooling trend is just hopeful. It is counter to the underlying energy flow from the sun and its view of the Earth.
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RW, somewhere in the near future the East coast of Australia should suffer another 1982 like drought. I mean a real drought, not the Millenial drought, which was a “Claytons” drought, IMO. A year when the rain tap turns off in Autumn and it virtually doesn’t rain for the rest of the year. It’s when you get almost total winter/pasture crop failure on the East coast and our agricultural production plummets. We’re overdue because they tend to run in 20-30 year cycles. The 2 biggies that I have experienced in my agricultural lifetime are 1967/68 and 1982. The second I also remember vividly, because I was playing football ( AFL ) and the grounds were hard and dusty the whole season.
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‘Maybe not the next one but the one after could be close to 2016 or even higher.’
I cannot see that, La Nina like conditions should prevail with the PDO strongly negative,. In this environment Modoki El Nino and Modoki La Nina would dominate.
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And the WMO(IPCC) are desperate to find warming, so they have found a place in the Arctic which reached 38C! A bit like that UK record.
Except that I have sweltered in Moscow with 37 C nights. And in Colorado at night at 40C (winter-40C). People are just amazed that in a desert climate, far from water, you get such extremes. The temperature record in Murmansk on the water is only 32.9C but these records come with very high humidity, like Singapore.
But underneath all this is this primal fear of +1.5C in an average. That’s not noticeable. How does it produce storms?
But $1.5Trillion a year is being spent building non nett zero windmills and non nett zero solar panels in China to ‘fix the problem’ so now China produces more CO2 than all other countries combined. And still no one says anything because that’s all in China and we need the windmills.
The complete lack of any logic or science is unbelievable.
But everyone loves Christmas, especially the Japanese. My hosts on one trip were insistent that I bought Christmas presents for my then young children and took me to a Walt Disney store. They must think all these things go together. Christmas, holidays, Mickey Mouse, Turkey, Christmas trees, Christianity, Coca Cola who popularized the modern Santa Claus. I suppose our understanding of Japanese culture is as shallow, but they meant well. The apocryphal tale is of a window display with Santa on a cross surrounded by rabbits.
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On closer inspection the De Vries cycle comes around in 2035, so that can be tested.
The other thing worth noting, its an internal dynamic.
‘Analysis of the amplitude of variation of this cycle shows it to be modulated by the geomagnetic field, indicating that the de Vries cycle is indeed of solar, rather than climatic, origin.’ (Wagner et al 2001)
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In the process of posting some cards just before Christmas I noticed a sign at the Post Office counter saying all mail would be delivered carbon free.
I asked whether this means by carrier pigeon? She answered that their trucks were electric. I then suggested their planes must also have been.
All I got was a sour blank look!
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You should also have asked where the electricity came from.
If you are in NSW, Qld, and charging is done overnight.. a large percentage of it is from coal fire power stations and/or gas.
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Very often that virtue signalling is followed by the false statement “.. we’re helping to save the planet”, etc. It’s false advertising and becoming almost mainstream. The only hope is that as more and more companies/ institutions make these crazy claims, the less people will notice.
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b.nice
I did think of asking your question but thought it was wise to desist or my cards may never have reached their destination!
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I also find it mystifying that man made Global Warming is about any locally specific warming, as above for Greenland.
The theory is that the globe will warm by a small 1.5C on average over the next 80 years. That’s one side of a room to the other. The fact that the globe as measured has not warmed at all in the last ten seems to have had no effect on the theory. And they are calculating this to 0.001C. The +10C in Greenland in mid winter on an ice mountain in the stratosphere needs explanation but it is certainly not global warming.
A corollary of this ‘climate emergency’ of 0.02C per year is that every storm, drought, flood or hot area or record temperature is held as absolute proof of rampant “Global Warming”.
First this was “Global” warming, not a single hot hour in England or unusually hot conditions in some very obscure area of the planet at certain times of the year.
Second it should have been almost unnoticeable except for the idea that the weather systems are apparently so very fragile that an infinitesimal change of 0.02C produces massive weather events and at the same time that all massive weather events are wholly and solely the direct result of the predicted increase of 0.02C since last year. It cannot be true.
So at what point is this Climate Armageddon Emergency declared just too absurd to be science? And how can a predicted maybe increase of a very small 1.5C in a global average over another 80 years cause a disaster this year and in this place or that place?
The only thing missing is any logic at all. Weather events are simply accidents of a complex catastrophic system when conditions come together randomly to create an unusual event. How this probability is increased by a tiny 0.02C per year as alleged is unexplained and unlikely. Species do not die because it is 0.02C hotter or even 0.2C hotter or 2C hotter.
Climate Extinction. End of days. All caused by an alleged 0.02C per year? And best of all the UN insists that it is man made which you think would take real proof, not conjecture.
Total fossil fuel CO2 is less than 3% of all CO2 in the air. It has all been quickly absorbed by the vast oceans. These unequivocal facts should have ended the madness in 1958. Now we have a world wide ban on fossil fuels outside China called Nett Zero, shutting agriculture outside China because of cow farts, shutting manufacturing outside China and all being pushed by the hundred thousand unelected people in the EU and UN. The question is why?
How much is China paying everyone to cripple the economies which pay the EU/UN wages to overwhelm their nation states with uncontrolled immigration, kill their manufacturing, starve their people and impoverish Europe and the US? In terms of world domination, it’s looking like a bargain. The fifth column used to be just the media. It is now the UN/EU and special friends in high places.
I am not alleging a conspiracy. It looks more like a very well oiled and self funding plan. Soon every citizen in Western democracies will be tracked by the UN and punished for their ‘carbon footprint’. Sound impossible? Just wait.
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“The 10C in Greenland in mid winter in the stratosphere needs explanation but it is not global warming.”
TLT shows patch over eastern Greenland at +3.5C and colder patch to the west over NE Canada
Nothing unusual about that with a wavy jet stream.
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/november2022/202211_Map.png
And UAH for NoPol shows its no warmer now than it was at the beginning of the century.
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