A new paper shows islands are young, dynamic creatures, and mother nature is mean. And nothing we see today on Indian or Pacific Islands is unprecedented. All the panic about islands disappearing is nothing compared to what nature does all the time. Indeed, man-made climate change, if it has done anything at all — has been a boon for islands in the last fifty years.
Thanks to Kenneth Richard, at NoTricksZone for finding the paper: Recent Shoreline Changes To 1100 Pacific Islands ‘Dwarfed’ By Change Magnitudes Of The Past
The new paper by Kench et al looked at 1,100 islands across the Pacific and Indian oceans, and even though CO2 levels rose from 325ppm to an apocalyptic 420ppm, the average island got bigger instead of smaller, and only 3 small uninhabited islands completely disappeared. And when we say small, some of the islands we are tracking are mere 30m wide sand spits. Is it really fair to call that an “uninhabited island”?
The world may have Olympic-sized junkets every year because shorelines have moved 40m in the last fifty years, but it turns out that shorelines moved 200 meters before anyone built a coal plant.
This, below, is just the last fifty years in the life of Kandahalagalaa Island, and about 20% of the island has shifted.
Currently sea levels are rising 3mm a year, but in its short life sea levels at Kandahalagalaa have already gone down and up some 900mm without humans doing a damn thing.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36171-2#Sec6
Satellite data is all very well for the last fifty years, but it can’t tell us whether islands used to move so much before humans invented the Ford Model T. So Kench and co. got very serious about one little island in the Maldives with the tongue-twisty name Kandahalagalaa. They drilled the holy smoke out of it, and radiocarbon dated the layers until they pieced together its history. They discovered that its whole life has been in a state of flux. It only emerged out of the ocean a during the dark ages, 1,400 years ago, shifted and grew to the south, and the ocean has turned a lot of the island upside down.
The Kench team are data nerds and did some serious drilling — taking some 154 sediment samples from 20 cores, they used 23 samples of a particular green algae to do radiometric age tests. They also did laser levels six different ways to survey the island. They took 11 other cores of outcrops, and used four different satellites to get lots of photos of the shoreline.
Supplementary Figure 2: The drill holes
This is one churned island
Most of the cores were upside down, with the older layers at the top. Nature is evidently reworking the island, dropping 1100 year old deposits on top of 300 year old ones, in various combinations that were different in nearly every hole.
They drilled lots of holes and found the islands age history was a jumble of old layers on younger layers (ages in red) | Click to enlarge.
1,100 Islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans are stable
Despite the threat of man made climate change, nearly every island larger than a tenth of a square kilometer is the same size as it was or expanding. This is an update on a previous survey of 700 islands which showed they were mostly growing. It’s not necessarily an improvement — Kench et al appear to have just added 400 teeny tiny islands to spread the splatter on the left hand side.
Notice how the log scale gives tiny islands a big role? An island 0.01 km2 is a mere 100m by 100m across. Half the graph is really plotting the fate of shifting sand dunes.
Is it fair to call them islands?
a Data source Kench et al Ref 37
The climate signal got blurred
The authors comment that they were unable to implicate climate change:
Collectively, these studies have been unable to establish specific environmental drivers of island change, nor directly and unambiguously implicate climatic change as a mechanism for observed changes. To date, local-scale processes appear to have blurred any climatic change signal22,24.
Translated: even though everyone says climate change is real and obvious expert researchers couldn’t find a signal above the noise. I suspect Kench et al were disappointed not to find that signal, given he was not happy some skeptics used his study a few years ago. But full credit to the team for being so dedicated at collecting data and writing it up so honestly.
Islands were forming as the holocene sea levels fell
Giving some idea of just how young these islands are, Kench et al reviewed about 15 different studies of islands between the Maldives and Fiji and found that the oldest known samples from each was about 1,500 to 7,000 years old (black circles below). Holocene sea levels (marked in blue) were an unthinkable 2 meters higher 5,000 years ago. Sea levels have been falling around Australia for thousands of years.
The little very-drilled island of Kandahalagalaa is “e” below, with the oldest samples from nearly 3,000 years ago, presumably underwater then, since that was long before Kench declares it it to have emerged from the sea.
b Summary of reef island evolution studies highlighting the onset and period of island accumulation in the mid-to-late Holocene. Blue-shaded area defines the envelope of sea-level behaviour in the Indo-Pacific. The solid black circle denotes the earliest radiometric age, the coloured circle denotes the mean radiometric age of samples, vertical line denotes the latest radiometric age. Different coloured circles reflect islands in different reef provinces and the letter inside the circle denotes specific islands, a = Mainadhoo, b = Boduhini, c = Galamadhoo, d = Baavanadhoo, e = Kandahalagalaa, f = Kondey, g = Vaadhoo, h = Dhakandhoo, i = Hulhudhoo, j = Thiladhoo, k = Cocos (keeling) Isld., l = Warraber, m = Bewick, n = Lady Elliot Isld., o = Mba, p = Tepuka, q = Tutaga, r = Laura, s = Jabat, t = Jeh, u = Jabnodren, v = Jin, w = Malamala, x = Navini, y = Makin. Source references of data are listed in Supplementary Table 1.
h/t Kenneth Richards, El Gordo, Another Ian.
REFERENCES
Kench, P.S., Liang, C., Ford, M.R. et al. (2023) Reef islands have continually adjusted to environmental change over the past two millennia. Nat Commun 14, 508 doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36171-2
Don’t you hate it when science ruins a good climate change horror story.
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Has anyone checked with MSM, TV, print media etc to find out when & how clearly they will inform the public, but more importantly, inform those that identify as government ministers / officials etc.
Guaranteed, not one iota of this information will be published. In fact they probably have the biggest brooms at the ready to sweep all mention of the facts under the biggest carpet they can get their grubby paws on!
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Silly ole me. The most vociferous objection to the facts will no doubt be the governments of these island nation. Weeping & wailing at the loss of our tax $$$$$$ because their islands are not sinking.
Do worry our communist Australian government will continue the blackmail compensation for our climate sins!!
The hypocrisy balloons ever larger as the facts surface.
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Probably not the Maldives though since they helped fund the research.
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The Maldives gets their income from making AGW noise, and pretending…
…. while building new airports and 5 star resorts on the shore line to rake in the tourist dollar !
And you see no HYPOCRISY in this… WOW !
ZERO mm/year SLR !!!
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Gee! Really?
You have evidence that the Maldives “helped fund the research”?
The paper says otherwise in its acknowledgment of “the Government of the Maldives for research permission under the Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture permit number 30-D/INDIV/2018/28.”
Since when was “research permission” the same as funding?
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I am sure our Climate Change Minister is on top of this story. Bound to close the coal power stations sooner before the situation gets worse.
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There are few landmasses in the Pacific. The islands are the remains of mountains which rise and fall, often around the edge of the tectonic plate on the Ring of Fire but leaving coral atolls up to 3.5km tall as the mountains fall. But the ‘land’ so created is always just above sea level. A few meters in 3,500 metres. What a coincidence! And how lucky for the inhabitants!
Why?
Because coral seeks sea level where it thrives and as the mountain subsided, the coral grew as proposed by Charles Darwin who observed it.
Sometimes it grows too tall and is subject to bleaching from falling water levels and the coral dies. If too low the coral dies. It is in an eternal dance of death with (average) sea levels over hundreds of thousands of years and sea levels which go up and down. It’s not anyone’s fault.
So it should be no surprise if this self adjusting natural construction is fundamentally immune to sea level rise. It is organically made and as tall as the Rocky Mountains, a phenomenon. As for the movement of the perimeter, that is a complex balance between lateral growth, erosion and sand deposition. The coast of England is moving metres per year and it’s no one’s fault.
But the proposition that a inevitable rise or fall in sea level threatens the very existence of amazing self perpetuating and dynamic coral atolls is part of the nutty idea that when you are born the world, the weather, the temperature range, the sea level, the biosphere, the animal population and species diversity is perfect and any change is a disaster.
That fantasy of an instantly perfect unchanging world is a total denial of reality, an absurd proposition which essential to the United Nations demand for real control over our daily lives. The world is a dynamic place and everyone adjusts with it. We have done so for a very long time and we will keep doing so as it heats and cools and sea levels go up and down. And evolution continues.
Perhaps for all the money received by the United Nations they could concentrate on their essential job, world peace. What are the 40,000 full time people and 40,000 contractors doing to end the war in Ukraine? Or are they busy saving the planet from any change and so becoming a dictatorial World Government?
Think WHO, IPCC and any large organizations like NASA, NOAA, CSIRO, State and Federal governments and even your local council. In the City of Yarra, Melbourne the extreme left wing council has decided to levy a bin tax for collecting rubbish. At what time did these people start to think they should rule the world?
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TdeF, that is an excellent summary of the dynamics of climate as it relates to sea level, and of the ignorance or otherwise of our masters in politics and media. That sea levels today are lower than they were 4 to 7,000 years ago is plainly obvious at many well dated raised beaches all around Australia. I call it The World’s Biggest Thermometer at https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2021/08/23/the-worlds-biggest-thermometer/.
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Thanks for your research Ken and I was just about to link to your SLR study from 2021.
I linked to it here about a year ago and I hope everyone here will check it out. Even their dopey ABC admitted via their Catalyst program that SLs were about 1.5 metres higher at Sydney about 4,000 years ago.
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MalaMala and Navini ‘islands’ are in Fiji, west of Nadi which is on an old volcanic island. Both have resorts on the sand. I assume that there is either coral or volcanic bases.
Makin island is in Kiribati (northern most of the Gilbert Islands) and may be larger judging from a population over 1,000.
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And while the push is on to change the weather, there needs to be recognition that none of the Pacific islands were inhabited at the time of the Battle of Hastings, a thousand years ago.
The Pacific peoples are very modern who mastered the catamaran and navigation by the stars were remarkable but they also knew something else. The islands were uninhabitable if only because they were new and had no food, no animals, no edible plants. So when they set out to migrate, they took with them all their plants for food, medicine, building. In New Zealand I have heard that they still remember the names of the boats on which they came, like Australian migrants.
So up to 90% of the vegetation, flowers, birds, animals, insects are not native. The whole place is very new. And these are not old places by geological standards. You can see this in Bora Bora, a tiny but dramatically beautiful island in the Tahiti Group of Bali Hi fame. The mountains of the group are ‘sharp’, non eroded. That is past ridiculous. A central rectangular plug looks like it just blasted out of the earth and cooled a hundred years ago.
But we are now told all this is now our responsibility to manage and maintain along with sea level and a Great Barrier Reef, a maze of structures, lakes, canals, waterways which has the area of Germany. Fifty years ago it was just scenery. Now we are supposed to spend billions ‘maintaining’ everything in the South Pacific or UNESCO will get cross. That is past ridiculous. To be fair though, France has to maintain half of it. It’s all their fault.
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But at least the French conducted atmospheric bomb tests (which I protested at the time) and double the amount of C14 in the air. With a half life of 5400 years, this allowed us to measure how fast CO2 was absorbed in the oceans. And it was extremely rapid so that 57 years later, it is all gone.
So we know categorically that half of the atmosphere’s CO2 is absorbed into the deep ocean in about 5 years because that is the only place it can vanish from detection.
And that means we know our tiny ’emissions’ are dwarfed by the exchange of 10x the volume of CO2 in the continuous exchange between sea and sky, as with Oxygen and H2O, the other gas. Which means man made CO2 is completely nonsense. So perversely and unintentionally, the French did some good. The slow 50% linear increase in CO2 over 250 years reflect sea surface temperature and nothing else.
But the UN wants results, not a reduction in CO2 because that’s impossible but a reduction in ’emissions’.
So we have to shut down everything, even our country train lines which run on diesel. Glass manufacture. Even preserving meat with CO2 for pack distribution. There is no end of damage to be done as the Federal and State laws reduce all source of CO2 in the top 215 companies by 80% as fast as possible. Without any scientific justification at all.
Then with all that self harm and terrible sacrifice, the sea level rise will stop. Of course not.
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Yes! Duh! We live on a dynamic planet with plate tectonics, earthquakes, tsunamis, fragile geology (like Florida’s coasts)… There are historical records of coastlines both coming and going. Port villages disappearing beneath the sea or ending up a mile inland. It is amazing that ‘climate scientists’ are unaware of these things. They are like children who live in a pink room, have never thought about color, and are ignorant of yellow. And blue. And red…
And here in the U.S. I have come to think of the Democratic party as the party that kneels at the altar of bad and fraudulent science. That would wipe away free speech. And that is propelling us all headlong, gleefully, straight into WWIII.
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This is a very important study but will the left wing extremists at their ABC etc keep quiet for decades before they refer to it?
The Bolter has belted them for decades with the earlier Kench studies but they only admitted their ignorant folly and mentioned his findings recently.
AGAIN the young Charles Darwin worked out the growth of Coral islands in a quick stopover study in about 1836 on his voyage of discovery.
YET all clueless world govts, MSM and so called scientists etc STILL spread BS and FRAUD + lies about dangerous SLR to this day.
Thanks again Jo for your blog and your hard work and Kenneth Richard’s research.
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They reported on it a long time ago. Apart from the articles I have linked to, the Science show has reported it too.
Probably a good time to reflect and be sceptical about your own motives and biases.
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Time for GA to look at the science, be sceptical about the whole AGW farce, and overcome his/her own fact-ignoring prejudices.
Look at what possible ulterior motives he/she could have for continuing to support this CO2 based AGW non-science.
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May I refer to a comment from Willis Eschenbach at WUWT
I’m surprised the authors of the study are surprised. As I read, even Darwin knew about.
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It’s good news of course, although the thinking community (which is most people here) has known for a long time that no islands have been disappearing. There was also a similar conclusion published in New Scientist a couple of years ago and put on this blog. Even Leftist New Scientist can admit it.
Such islands that have been claimed to be encroached upon are islands with temporary WW2 airstrips built with landfill imported from Queensland, Australia and which is now getting washed away as nature takes its course after 80 years or so. The locals seem to have forgotten about the temporary nature of WW2 airstrips they built houses and farms on or forgotten what they are altogether.
Also, coral atolls are not fundamentally stable. It is never a good idea to live on them even though they are not disappearing at the moment.
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Here is a list of WW2 airfields including many on islands of the Pacific, many of which will be washing away now due to erosion, not supposed climate change or sea level rise.
https://www.ozatwar.com/airfields.htm
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I’ve been to the one in Wewak, about 53 years ago.
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There are some small islands on the North of Papua New Guinea which have been rapidly sinking as recorded since the 18th century. Some vanished completely in the early 20th century. It is common in the Pacific and remarkably fast, far faster than sea level changes. And the PNG government has been evacuating the hundreds of people steadily. This has nothing to do with the constant and slow sea level rise but who cares? You can always claim geological changes are the result of Climate Change. What would Ian Plimer know about geology that a self appointed Climate Scientist does not know? Personally I think ending the last ice age was our first mistake.
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BTW we’re wrecking our electricity grids to save us from their so called terrible SLR etc but Ken Stewart has worked out that Hydro, Solar and Wind are the biggest bludgers and winners from their lies.
Coal could easily provide us with CHEAP, RELIABLE BASE-LOAD power FOREVER, but we’re not allowed to use it.
Instead we must use TOXIC, UNRELIABLE S & W and WRECK our electricity grids FOREVER.
China, Russia ,Iran etc will be very pleased with the result and they’ll just sit back and decide when to attack.
Will our clueless OECD countries ever WAKE UP?
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2023/03/01/the-surprising-cost-of-electricity/
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Topic ?
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The average elevation of the Maldives is 2m.
If they thought they were really disappearing do you think they’d have built four new airports there?
There is a disconnect between the propaganda and the reality.
SEE LINK FOR REST
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Half of Bangladesh has an elevation of a tiny 0.5metres, 1 1/2 feet. Up to your knees. You would think the hundred million people who live there might have noticed a sea level rise.
And a lot of the world’s new airports are built in the ocean. Even Sydney. Yokahama. Nice. Gibraltar. Along the coast of the Emirates, whole cities. The count of new airports in the Maldives is now seven.
What is it these governments, investors and engineers know about climate change and sea level rise which no one else knows.
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And if you make it to Gibraltar, a giant limestone rock connected by a narrow isthmus to Spain, the border is next to the runway which runs across the isthmus! Not along it, but across it. Not much room for error and the boom gates for the connecting road, customs and excise are also for the airport runway. At the rock itself, most of the housing is now on reclaimed land along with a naval and submarine base. Are they afraid of sea level changes? No. They are already in the water.
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And as an added thrill for air passengers, Spanish airspace is along one side of the runway, so the plane has to keep to that side on approach and takeoff, which adds to the challenge. It’s like Mahoney’s parking scene in Police Academy.
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TdeF:
A lot of the land is recent deposits of mud in the delta carried down by the Padma (Ganges) and Jamuna (Brahmaputra) rivers.
Flat, fertile soil good for farming and with a densely populated country where farming is a major livelihood, it gets taken up even if prone to storm induced flooding.
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I would maintain that the GROWTH of coral atolls could be an indication of climate change.
85% of the CO2 dissolve in the ocean is in the form of a bicarbonate ion and often tied up with alkaline earth minerals like magnesium and calcium. Mg and Ca carbonates can precipitate (often with the help of living creatures with exoskeletons) in warm shallow seas. The atolls, with the seawater moat around the islands are an ideal place to deposit these minerals because of the temperature of the water in these areas. However, it’s also evidence of a natural CO2 sequestration process that has taken place for eons which would logically be accelerated by heating because the alkaline earth bicarbonate become less stable as the temperature rises.
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BUT Sean is this due to Human co2 emissions since 1800 and then explain how Humans emitted so much co2 during the earlier Holocene?
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Have you seen how much CO2 has come out of the atmosphere over the earth’s history? It was close to 3000 ppm 150 million years ago and nearly equivalent to todays concentration just 3 million years ago. Many say the earth is starved of CO2 and the ocean CO2 mineralization processes may be a big part of that.
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Thanks Sean I’m aware of those points. So long as you’re not pushing the Human emissions of co2 idiocy and how we’re rushing headlong down the road to EXTINCTION.
Of course Biden and his clueless scientific( ?????)advisers and all other OECD leaders also BELIEVE we’re on the road to EXTINCTION.
Just incredible loony, delusional nonsense, but also true.
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Here’s Willis Eschenbach’s comment about this study via WUWT. Thanks to Krishna Gans for link.
Willis Eschenbach
Editor
March 7, 2023 2:41 pm
Surprises? I first wrote about this in a peer-reviewed journal article in 2004.
This was followed by my 2010 posts “Floating Islands” and “The Irony, It Burns“.
In 2013 I wrote “Why The Parrotfish Should Be The National Bird”
Then in 2016 I wrote again in a post entitled “The Unsinkable ‘Sinking Atolls’ Meme“.
In 2017 I wrote “Parrotfish Vindicated“, when science caught up with my 2013 post.
At this point, anyone who is surprised that coral atolls are not disappearing underwater hasn’t been paying attention.
w.
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Unfortunately you didn’t copy the respective links in Willis post to his articles, that’s why I linked directly to Willis comment on WUWT.
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Last night was watching “The reluctant traveller”, featuring Eugene Levy ( Schitts Creek, American Pie actor) and in that episode EL is visiting the Maldives Islands. You know, the Maldives, which were supposed to be overcome by rising sea levels, probably 10 years ago. There was a famous photo of the President of the Maldives or maybe some UN nutter in scuba gear signing some agreement underwater. Happy to report the Maldives are still there in all their glory. In fact EL was staying in a swisho hotel built right on the waterline. The developers of this high end hotel obviously are all climate sceptics. They recently spent $40m (USD) to develop this island resort from a lonely atoll into a small island. So, they’re not really that worried about using sea levels. #climatescam.
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That UN-grifting (ex-) President ‘scuba-scam-man’ has a cousin who is now NZ’s Minister of Health [sic], having done her time under Doktor ‘Covert-19′ Bloomfield (who received a knighthood or some right-royal tosh award then quietly slipped-off to a cushy number on full-pay plus bonuses).
Ayesha Verrall is her name [snip! if legally unmentionable] and she’s as slippery as a venomous sea snake… Roll up, roll up, V.#5 ready to roll, then V.#6, keep ’em rolling ($).
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I’ll wager she’s also a member of the WEF. Probably one of the elected young global leaders like Greg Hunt (Min Health Australia) and your own “Cinders”.
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Here’s a great interactive website which traces the world’s shoreline changes between 1984-2016. I’ve posted this before. Zoom into your nearest or favourite beach area and see if there are any major changes in the shoreline. https://aqua-monitor.appspot.com/?datasets=shoreline
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Those that may be shrinking are volcanic atoll remnants just following the natural ebb and flow of sand particles in water.
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I asked ChatGPT about the situation. Note that for many answers it is programmed to only return Leftist propaganda, not facts. It’s just like a typical Leftist but much smarter and potentially way more evil because lazy Leftist “journalists” (just about all of them) will get it to spit out vast amounts of propaganda with no work by them.
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I wonder if ChatGPT is able to learn. It states that its information is only current to 2020. I like to push the wrong or vague answers until it apologises. So it is either capable of selective data presentation in support of the consensus or is able to take in more information (learn) if you point it to something.
It is more fun to defat ChatGPT than the other drone Peter/Simon because ChatGPT actually apologises when it determines it was wrong.
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Just to make the point about its learning ability, I pressed it on Tuvalu:
What I wonder is if it is now asked about Tuvalu from another person, will it give the correct answer.
If it is able to learn then it becomes a powerful resource for skeptics to give it real information. For example, it should now know that no ocean surface exceeds 30C for an entire year.
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Rick, tell me the exact question you asked it and I will ask it.
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Why has the land area of Tuvulu increased over the past 50 years?
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Q: Why has the land area of Tuvulu increased over the past 50 years?
A: There are several factors that could contribute to the increase in land area in Tuvalu over the past 50 years:
1) Natural processes: Natural processes such as sediment accumulation, coral debris, and changes in tides can contribute to changes in land area over time. The study conducted by the University of Auckland suggested that sedimentation was a significant factor in the land area increase observed in Tuvalu.
2) Reclamation: Land reclamation is the process of creating new land by filling in an area with soil, sand, and other materials. This can be done for a variety of purposes, such as expanding land for development, agriculture, or coastal protection. While there is limited evidence of reclamation in Tuvalu, it is possible that small-scale reclamation projects have contributed to the increase in land area.
3) Measurement error: It is also possible that the increase in land area observed in Tuvalu is due, at least in part, to measurement error. Measuring small islands accurately can be challenging due to their small size and the shifting nature of coastlines.
It is important to note that while the land area in Tuvalu has increased slightly, the overall impact of sea-level rise and other climate change impacts on the island nation remains a significant concern.
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Thanks- appears it has learnt. This is the response I got initially from that question:
It is a tedious way to teach it. I just cannot abide silly answers. I wonder if it could be turned into a skeptic or of the programmers will always pull it back from reality to the consensus nonsense.
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Why has the land area of Tuvulu increased over the past 50 years
(I had the spelling wrong in the question to Chat GPT also)
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Surely the principal or only source of new land is 50 years’ worth of coral growth.
NOAA says the sea level is rising there. Not a lot, but that would have to be covered before area increased.
I haven’t read the story.
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I would usually keep pressing and point out other research when it states something like “rare instance”..
Imagine if this consensus machine became a source of reliable information.
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CHAT GPT GAVE THE SUBJECT THIS TITLE–>
Tuvalu’s Climate Change Risk
I ASKED IT:
Q: A University of Auckland study in 2018 found that the land area of Tuvalu has increased by 2.9% or 73.5 hectares. And yet you said it in a previous answer to me that Tuvalu is one of several islands around the world that are at risk of sinking. How do you resolve this contradiction?
A: While it is true that the University of Auckland study in 2018 found that the land area of Tuvalu had increased, it is important to note that this increase is not necessarily indicative of long-term stability or safety for the island nation.
Tuvalu is still at risk of sinking due to a range of factors, including sea level rise caused by climate change, ocean acidification, and extreme weather events like cyclones. The small increase in land area may be due to natural processes such as sediment accumulation or changes in tides, but it does not necessarily mean that Tuvalu is safe from the threats posed by rising sea levels and climate change.
In fact, Tuvalu is considered one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the impacts of climate change, with projections indicating that the sea level around Tuvalu could rise by as much as 30-40 centimeters by 2050, leading to increased flooding and erosion.
Therefore, while the increase in land area is interesting, it should not be interpreted as evidence that Tuvalu is no longer at risk of sinking. It is important to continue to monitor and address the ongoing threats posed by climate change to the people and environment of Tuvalu, as well as to other vulnerable island nations around the world.
DM: IN OTHER WORDS PURE WARMIST PROPAGANDA AND IT DOESN’T LEARN.
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The term ‘ocean acidification’ gives the game away with regard to leftist programming.
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Just keep the money coming!
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Also interesting to note the response to Rick at 13.2, that any increase in land area is due to ‘natural processes’, but the inference is that any reduction in land area is due to climate change (anthropogenic, of course).
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The term “at risk” is essentially meaningless unless you can and do quantify the magnitude of the risk.
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Back during the Hockey Stick Wars of Mann and McIntyre, the counter wise critique was expressed “hand waving explanations” — no measurements or data or logic involved.
Just argumentum ad hoc.
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A common misconception of Leftists is that they have a pre-Medieval “staticist” or Aristotelian view of the world and they simply do not understand that natural forces are constantly changing the geology, geography and fauna and flora (via natural selection and evolution) of the world.
E.g. Aristotle and subsequent commentators believed the world and everything in it was eternal and never changing.
Any change, such as natural erosion of a 2ft/0.6m elevation strip of land I mentioned above is incomprehensible to them. They attribute it to anthropogenic, not natural causes.
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Although Leonardo DaVinci noted sea shells in rocks on a mountainside and correctly explained this as land that was previously under the sea.
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Agreed Graeme, but Leonardo was a Renaissance man and I was talking about pre-Medieval beliefs.
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David: Can we call believers in AGW pre-Medieval?
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I would say so, Graeme.
They have very primitive beliefs such as the staticism of Aristotle, and belief that sacrifices (money) to their gods (Elites) will appease their anger for supposedly causing global warming.
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AGAIN here’s Andrew Bolt’s interview in 2019 with Daniel Fitzhenry about SLs at Fort Denison since 1914.
He is the expert because it’s his job to understand the SL data every day and the historic data they talk about is from the BOM.
Certainly very little change for the last 109 years. But why don’t our stupid pollies, ABC or all of our MSM understand any of the data?
After all it only take a few minutes of their time to learn the truth?
OH and it will also save us from WASTING endless BILLIONs of $ for decades for a guaranteed ZERO change to SLR or Climate or rainfall or floods or droughts or cyclones or extreme weather deaths etc or all of their continuing BS and FRAUD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mjOmsqIibk
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The ABC appears to have reported on this thoroughly.
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Gee Aye see my reply to you below.
And I’m still waiting for their clueless ABC to urge us to stop WASTING BILLIONs of $ and start building more RELIABLE COAL BASE-LOAD power stations ASAP.
And stop all TOXIC, UNRELIABLE power like S & W immediately.
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This Fort Denison?
https://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/65.php
What of it?
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Absolutely NO ACCELERATION.
Steady SLR rate… unchanged by human released CO2
https://i.ibb.co/ZYwyTGH/fort-denison.png
—-
Now where is the report from the ABC suggesting Australia “stops WASTING BILLIONs of $ and starts building more RELIABLE COAL BASE-LOAD power stations ASAP.
And stop all TOXIC, UNRELIABLE power like S & W immediately.”
Its obvious that you agree that this is what they SHOULD be saying.. Right !
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Here is an analysis of Australian mean sea levels.
The sea level rise of about 1mm per year is entirely consistent with the sea continuing to warm after the last glaciation plus ENSO.
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/category/soi/
I also seem to recall that the BoM has been “adjusting” tide gauge data just as they do for temperature. Does anyone else recall that?
50
“Surprise”. “Finding the paper”.
Wow, it is so hidden.
Here is an article about it 2 years before publication. https://www.abc.net.au/pacific/programs/pacificbeat/pacific-islands-getting-bigger-despite-sea-level-rise/13035520
and they decided to follow up a few days later
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-08/why-are-hundreds-of-pacific-islands-getting-bigger/13038430
I wonder how that got past the gliterati or whatever they are called.
More shocking news from 13 years ago https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/06/03/2916981.htm
I guess it is great when you find something and get a surprise but I saw the guy talk about this a long time ago, so I’m not sharing the pleasure.
311
Gee Aye I’ve also linked to THEIR ABC mess about SLR from their Catalyst program many years ago.
There they stated that Sydney area SLs were about 1.5 metres higher about 4000 years ago and since dropped 1.5 metres to today’s lower level..
And they’ve started to listen from the Bolter bombardment over many years and quoted Kench studies recently.
Anyway look at the Bolter’s interview with Fitzhenry that I linked to and ask yourself why we’ve fallen for their fraudulent nonsense?
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Neville – “reported”, not stated. The ABC reported on research, they didn’t do it themselves.
13 years ago is hardly recently. They reported on Kench’s work as it was being undertaken – how can they report on it any earlier?
112
Then why do they put in superstition-based “predictions” of increasing future SLR?
30
So the pacific islands are not going to disappear because of man made climate change ? If you go looking you will find studies that were done back in the 60’s (?) looking into why some islands were being inundated . And one thing they did find was coral dredging for runways during WW2 on the side of the islands that protected them from storms , dynamite fishing was also mentioned .
The ABC still bang on about pacific islands disappearing because of man made climate change even though they have fact checked it and as you have linked to above there is evidence that the scare stories about the islands which is one of the so called pillars of proof for man made climate change are baseless junk .
121
I remember ABC reports on coral mining and so on back in the day. What is your point? That the ABC reports on stuff?
115
My point is once upon a time they used to do documentaries etc on earth science without the ideology but now it’s rare to find a truthful story it’s all mainly just climate change , climate change , climate change , climate change.
40
Second link has a “scare farce about Carteret Islands “with predictions they would be submerged by 2015.”
Then of course there is reality….. “https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/SmartDeals-g46346-Carteret_New_Jersey-Hotel-Deals.html”
First link “The majority of islands in each of those nations has either got larger or stayed very similar in size,” OK.. measured fact stated…
Third link.. “But the key problem is that sea level rise is likely to accelerate much beyond what we’ve seen in the 20th century.”
There is absolutely ZERO scientific basis for that comment!
Why is it that scientists like Ketch can report on their own findings, yet STILL keep up with the nonsense “climate change” predictions.
Its NOT SCIENCE…. its superstition!
72
Whoops.. my bad..
major mistake on Carteret Island.. I assumed it was similar to the Maldives with 5 star ocean resorts everywhere.
It actually barely even exist !
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carteret_Islands#/media/File:Carteret_Map.jpg
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Jo
Great stuff as we see a PROPER assessment shows no need for alarm at all.
Nils-Axel Morner has been similarly researching in this area and coming to exactly the same sort of conclusions. See below
https://climatechangedispatch.com/renowned-sea-level-expert-no-traces-of-a-present-rise-in-sea-level-on-the-contrary-full-stability/
Its high time for David Attenborough, the ABC and NASA etc to retract all their baseless and reckless allegations on “accelerating” sea level rise and the destruction of islands due to mythical “CO2 driven climate change”.
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I see David Attenborough was on some British Islands (something about birds) going a series for the BBC. All of these would have been rocky and high about sea level. But the BBC was worried about him getting bird ‘flu. I would add further comment about brain damage but it wouldn’t be allowed.
80
See above. The ABC agrees with you.
212
“Its high time for David Attenborough, the ABC and NASA etc to retract all their baseless and reckless allegations on “accelerating” sea level rise and the destruction of islands due to mythical “CO2 driven climate change”.”
Show us where the ABC agrees with this statement.
Or stop making vacuous comments !
61
Incidentally, hasn’t it occurred to any climate catastrophists that water tends to seek the same level so if one island is drowning they all should be?
NB: The ocean isn’t completely flat but there can be small local variations in level due to wind and currents and possibly other factors such as minor variations in gravity. And there are differences between oceans, e.g. the Pacific is 20cm higher than the Atlantic. But in general, islands in a certain geographical area should all be subject to the same sea level rise, if any.
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How can that be? Whenever there is a regional meeting in Fiji the Australian media (esp ABC SBS) hasten to interview the inhabitants whose ancestral burial grounds and domeciles have been “consumed” by rising sea level. It never occurs to the dumb journos that sea level rise in Fiji is selective. Why? Its more to do with seismic activity in that volcanic region causing some areas to drop! Follow the money – sea level rise correlates with rising bank accounts, not CO2.
81
Mmm, and just last weekend I was at a funeral where a current CSIRO person delivered one of the eulogies – it was a heap of “look at me, look at me” rather than focusing on the poor diseased and of course had to touch on climate change and “sea-level rises happening as we are speaking here today”. And I just grinned and thought heaven help us.
140
Rupert, I delivered an eulogy at my dear mother’s funeral. I briefly mentioned she was born during the Halley’s Comet time of public panic. Scientists at that time were debating whether the cyanogen gas in the tail would suffocate life on Earth. My dear Mom lived for 103 years.
80
Back in 2010 Philipa McDonald (ABC) ran a story with authoritative support, but the ABC narrative didn’t change after this revelation.
‘Auckland University’s Associate Professor Paul Kench, a member of the team of scientists, says the results challenge the view that Pacific islands are sinking due to rising sea levels associated with climate change.
“Eighty per cent of the islands we’ve looked at have either remained about the same or, in fact, gotten larger,” he says.
“Some of those islands have gotten dramatically larger, by 20% or 30%.
“We’ve now got evidence the physical foundations of these islands will still be there in 100 years.”
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What were they meant to change? Any evidence?
211
Well, they could say sea level isn’t rising because of global warming.
80
You are going with the narrative that they only report what their masters decree. Ho hum.
215
And you are going with vacuous, empty comments.
Do you have any evidence at all that human released CO2 causes sea level rise ?
Why do these so-called scientists continue to push that superstition of CO2 based climate change even exists. ?!
51
This is a recent article from Aunty, its patently untrue and they know it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-03-03/beaches-sea-level-rise-australia/12006286
41
It is completely true that the study predicts such a rise and they accurately reported it. It is a news report El G.
02
We could also look at some local island tide data
https://i.ibb.co/Bfzh9m1/ollier-tuvalu-1.jpg.
Which is showing basically nothing in the way of sea level rise.
40
And from
International Journal of Engineering Science Invention
ISSN (Online): 2319 – 6734, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 6726
http://www.ijesi.org ||Volume 6 Issue 8|| August 2017 || PP. 48-51
http://www.ijesi.org 48 | Page
Sea Level Manipulation
*Nils-AxelMörner1
“±0.0 mm/yr, the value obtained from many global test sites [11-13, 28]; the Maldives, Bangladesh, Goa in
the Indian Ocean, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Kiribati, Majuro, Fiji in the Pacific, Surinam-Guyana in NE South
America, Venice in the Mediterranean.
So, whatever is causing the problem (if there really is one)
….. ITS NOT SEA LEVEL RISE.
51
Yeah but but the sun is setting earlier on the west coast because the sea level is higher !
(Sarc of course)
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[…] (3 feet 3 inches). Sea level is rising so slowly that even small pacific islands have not lost any measurable amount of surface area. So it would seem that reports of New York’s demise have been greatly […]
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