Any which way you look at global drought measures in the last 120 years this is not the CO2 doom scenario of the IPCC prophesies either in rainfall patterns or in water supplies. The graphs below show rainfall trends shifting slightly due to unknown forces and looking for all the world, like CO2 is irrelevant. Despite the scare campaigns about floods and droughts, and the threats of climate wars over dwindling rivers, there has been no trend in hydrological droughts since the Wright Brothers first flew a plane.
Kenneth Richards at NoTricksZone reported on Shi et al, a paper which looked at trends from 1902 to 2014 in all nine climate zones of the world.
The first graph shows a mixed bag of trends in Meteorological Droughts, none of which are obviously linked to human emissions of CO2. Remember, half of all human emissions since we crawled out of caves has been emitted after 1995. According to CDIAC fully 250,000 Mt of CO2 was emitted up to that year, then we have doubled that in the years since then. If CO2 was a planet transforming molecule, surely we’d see something in the last 25 years?
The bottom line is that if we had climate models with any understanding of rainfall they would be able to predict wet and dry seasons, and trends in droughts, floods, streamflow, and rivers. Instead, like stone-age heathen victims, we wail and lament any time a flood or a drought happens anywhere. We blame camels or cows, trucks and planes. We change our light globes and hope our houses don’t get washed away on the same floodplains that were inundated 100 years ago.
The first graphs show Meteorological Droughts trends in the nine climate regions (a lack of rain):
The regions codes are on the map below. (Click to enlarge).
Meteorological Drought trends. (Click to Enlarge) Shi et al 2023
The second set of graphs are the hydrological drought trends (a lack of water supply):
Hydrological Drought trends. (Click to Enlarge) Shi et al 2023
These are the climate zones the study used:
Classification of different drought regions of the world. Shi et al 2023
(Essentially Australia is B, Cf and A, The USA is B, Cf and Df. The UK, France, Germany and NZ are Cf).
Even longer studies show that droughts and floods have always happened
Fully 178 years of Australian rainfall showing no trend at all in relation to CO2. A study on one thousand years of rainfall in Antarctica suggests droughts and floods used to be longer, worse. Indeed, old world megadroughts in past 2000 years worse, longer, than current droughts. The deadliest droughts in India were before 1924…. etc.
For more posts on these see the tags: Rain , Drought, Floods, Australian rainfall
DEFINITIONS
According to NOAA, a Meteorological Drought is a lack of rain suffered for an extended time, whereas a Hydrological Drought is a lack of water supply such as stream flow, reservoir and lake levels, and ground water.
REFERENCE
Haiyun Shi et al (2023) A global perspective on propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought during 1902–2014, Atmospheric Research
Volume 280, 15 December 2022, 106441, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106441
Good morning Jo,
Totally brilliant work by Ken & you, yet again.
The only “global boiling” that is real, is that in the minds of all these “modern day” “Chicken Littles”!
Right now I’m having “flashbacks” to that stupid & small comic figure of the 70’s.
Oh, but that’s right, these left-tards are so ocd. about history being not a “thing”, they wouldn’t even know about that!!
Germany & UK. appear to be slowly waking from their green night-mares, let’s see how much things change in the next 6-12 months?
(We all should have got over this bulltish 5+ years ago, but as my late mum said “better late than never!”)
Warm regards reformed warmist of Logan
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It’s good to have this sort of weather analysis but there is a downside in that it avoids the real science.
In using the weather observations as a push back platform we are falling into the trap set by the UNIPCCC and associated manipulators who want us to forget the real atmospheric physics that is there waiting to be spoken.
The facts are that the so called greenhouse effect of CO2 is a scientific confabulation which falls over when given the scrutiny it deserves.
To start with atmospheric CO2 doesn’t “heat the atmosphere”, and even if it did in some magical way, it’s effect would be infinitesimally small and basically immeasurable.
Atmospheric CO2 is a quantitative irrelevance in the thermodynamics of the system and human origin CO2 is basically nothing.
There is no global warming science that threatens us through CO2.
This needs to be made very very public to undercut the ugliness of the current drama created around what is essentially the gas of life.
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Hey Keith,
There needs to be infinitely MORE of getting the REAL science out there into every publication possible.
This should include facts such as warming as a response to increasing CO2 is logarithmic – in other words CO2 has ZERO capability of warming the planet due to that fact alone.
As for “boiling oceans” as warned by Al Gore (the first climate billionaire) and Antonio Guterres (he’s also in it for the money), they need to have the red hot poker applied to them more rigorously.
I ponder what either of them would say about the CO2 “blanket” that’s covering the earth and causing all this globull warming/climate change/ocean boiling etc etc BS if they were to go to outback Australia and experience a 40+ degree beautifully clear day and then stand out in their shorts and t-shirts for the duration of the night when the temperature quite often drops to zero degrees or less.
Sort of very quickly disproves the myth that the CO2 blanket is warming the planet as they keep harping on about.
Cheers
260
🙂
60
“There is no global warming science that threatens us through CO2.”
CO2 is not threatening, the anti-carbon fake science is.
https://www.newsweek.com/elites-are-using-climate-hysteria-immiserate-working-class-opinion-1643962
Remember those halcyon days, when we were convinced that ‘science’ would take us to new worlds and cure disease?
The ‘Pandemic’ has slain that illusion.
Let’s hope illusion is all that is being slain.
It appears ‘Science’ has become the witting tool of neo authoritarianism.
Apparently tenure, and a chance to hob nob at Davos, is worth your soul.
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KK writes
“The facts are that the so called greenhouse effect of CO2 is a scientific confabulation which falls over when given the scrutiny it deserves.”
The trouble is that we are being denied scrutiny . On the Daily Sceptic today was this article
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/08/15/last-years-nobel-physics-laureate-signs-world-climate-declaration-stating-there-is-no-climate-emergency/
Scroll down to the link mentioned and I was also blocked by Avast who in effect are censoring what I read. I don’t know if it is just my software or if this happens with other security software. Is Jo next?
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They must be feeling insecure indeed. No longer they censor social media only, now even antivirus companies.
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In recent years, with the global warming, the frequency and severity of extreme droughts have increased (Wang et al., 2021; Deb et al., 2019a; Deb et al., 2019b; Yao et al., 2018) – from the introduction of the paper, and pretty much the opposite of the assertion of this post.
Note that the graphs presented as evidence only go to 2014, cherry picking at its finest
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Not really. Lomborg, in his book False Alarm, includes a lot of research data that also shows that these weather problems we often have are NOT increasing. Recall the last “great flood” in Germany, running through one town that had flood marks on a corner wall well over one storey high.And as Neville has pointed out, the BOM own records clearly show that rainfall, cyclones etc., are NOT increasing.
It’s always helpful to actually check the data before commenting.
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You haven’t read any of those papers have you Peter? For example “Wang et al” reports on droughts from 2015 to 2100. And the word CMIP6 appears 52 times. This is your modeled fantasy world…
Deb et al likewise reports on “Modelling non-stationarity in rainfall-runoff”
Yao et al actually looks at rain gauges in China but only from 1985-2015.
And you accuse me of cherrypicking? Mr Fitzroy you are an ideological time waster.
If you read my site, you’d know I’ve reported on things like the 178 years of Australian rainfall showing no trend at all in relation to CO2.
1000 year rainfall study suggests droughts and floods used to be longer, worse.
Megadroughts in past 2000 years worse, longer, than current droughts
Deadliest droughts in India were before 1924…. etc.
But thanks. I’ll add those links to the post.
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Peter, I bet none of those papers made mention of horses and carts though.
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Sadly, all too true
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It’s implicit.
They needed the carts for the horsesh.. his papers propounded.
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A cosmological perspective, perhaps.
‘Extreme hydrological events in the world are widely impacted by solar and lunar periodic motions (SLPMs)
‘SLPMs can produce a change of the world’s large rivers by as much as 6.7%
‘Seventy-three percent and 85% of the extreme flood and drought events correspond to SLPMs.’ (Dai et al 2019)
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Why not a biblical perspective? Take the Great Flood, long considered a myth, until confirmed by archeological digs. Or, more recently, the Great California Flood of 1862. Either of these events would today be an incontrovertible proof of the Climate Change.
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During the Holocene Thermal Maximum there was a universal flood, that is irrefutable, and the salty Mediterranean slowly emptied into the Black Sea. Noah had plenty of time to clear out.
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Oh for… So no debate on what Jo is saying then? Not prepared to challenge the mountain of data? Sometimes it’s better not to say anything…
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Mr. Aye: So you, like Mr. Fitzroy, didn’t read them? Likely you thought your remark soooooo funny, it just couldn’t wait. What did you make of Ms. Nova’s reply? Looking forward to your next knee-slapper.
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That doesn’t even make sense at first glance because droughts and floods are very rare events, typically in Australia we might go two or three decades without a major flood in any given region … heck “recent years” in Australia have been mostly wetter than normal, and when we did get floods in 2021, we were told that was caused by CO2 … now they say the same years are also dryer than normal. First make up your mind on that one … but even after that it still makes no sense.
Trying to calculate frequency of a rare event “in recent years” is utter nonsense. You need at a minimum several flood/drought events in a given region to get some concept of frequency at all for that region. Then you need a long term trend to figure out if that’s rising or falling. A proper long term, not “recent years”.
That’s why it only gives a meaningful result after being quantified and plotted over a hundred year timeframe as above … even then the results are quite variable over different regions. If CO2 was driving anything we should se a clear pattern.
If you wonder why people shrug and give up on your rubbish it’s because you are consistently ignoring evidence placed right in front of you and responding with some weird references to something you show no sign of understanding.
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Thanks Jo and you wouldn’t swap Aussie rainfall from 1896 to 1948 for the rainfall record since that time.
I’ll have a think and come back when I have the time to comment accurately about our droughts and floods.
But generally the proof is very obvious in the wonderful benign climate Humans have enjoyed since 1950.
AGAIN global population in 1950 was just 2.5 billion and today over 8 billion and global life expectancy in 1950 was 45.5 years and today 73 years.
The poorest continent or African population in 1950 was 227 million and life expectancy just 36 years, but today their population has increased to 1460 million and life expectancy 64 years.
The last 73 years has seen record levels for Human flourishing and yet the delusional fools still BELIEVE?
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Neville:
They still believe.
There is a strong element of Malthus among them, despite his idea being demolished in the 19TH Century, but they believe that they are too many people on Earth. I remember Paul Erhlich saying (on a trip to Adelaide in the 1960’s) saying that the Earth could not feed 3 million people. Recently, long retired and 90 years old, he was interviewed and claimed that disaster was coming. David Attenborough is another.
Then there is Dr. James Hansen who in 1988 claimed that the world would be 3℃ warmer in 30 years, and that rising seas (due to ice melting) would flood The Maldives island, cover the Florida beaches and the lower end of Manhattan. After every one of these had failed he was interviewd and said that it could still happen.
And these are the ‘scientists’. Think what people like Simon are like.
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Hey Jo,
Did you see the “Montana kids” just beat the (republican) state in the courts? 😞
(Wattsupwiththat.com 5 hrs ago)
The republicans need to take the gloves off & start tackling this “junk science” head-on.
Warm regards, reformed warmist of Logan
140
At least the Climate Alarmists with their predictions are consistent. Consistently wrong that is.
141
AGAIN here’s the proof of record Human flourishing since 1950 and using the UN data and the UN projections to 2100 or 10.4 billion.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/population
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Neville – and EVERY single one of the 8,045,311,447 birthed by a WOMAN 🙂
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True so far, but experiments continue, mostly in San Francisco 🙂
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AGAIN here’s Aussie rainfall since 1900 and the bad Federation drought started from 1896.
Australia is the driest continent on Earth and our rainfall has been better since about 1948.
And the bad millennium drought doesn’t seem to show up much on this Aussie rainfall anomaly graph.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=7
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Think the year “…has been emitted after 1995” should be 1895?
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The bad Millennium drought doesn’t show up on the northern Australian rainfall graph either.
And much better rainfall after the 1970s.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=naus&season=0112&ave_yr=7
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Perhaps we could change its name from Millennium drought to the Fitzroy drought, so it would appear obvious to some?
50
BTW that last line should read much better rainfall after 1970 not 1970s.
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Australia is actually well and truly overdue for a major east coast drought. The last biggie was 1982. That’s where you get a major failure in the normal autumn /winter /spring rainfall. The millennial drought doesn’t count because although there was reduced rainfall for a number of years there wasn’t a single year of extreme minimum. Usually, it’s about every 20 -24 years. So 1982, 1968, 1944, 1916, 1896 are the real severe droughts for east coast Australia. It seemed like the mid 2000’s expected event was spread over many years(millennial drought) in a less severe event. So, the next biggie should be from 2026 onwards. Maybe we’ll get to use all those east coast white elephant desal plants after all.
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East coast NSW appears to have a rainfall cycle of around 80 years. This is from a talk given in 2022, apologies it is not online:
“There is evidence of an 80-year on-off cycle in extreme rainfall and flood events in the Hawkesbury River and Lake George – is a new 40-year flood-prone cycle commencing now?
Two sites provide hydrological data over 200 years since European settlement: height of the Hawkesbury River at Windsor, and level of the ephemeral Lake George. The Hawkesbury has experienced 43 moderate to major floods since 1799 with the timing of floods grouping into approximate 40-year segments of greater or lesser flood frequency. Lake George has a reconstructed history of annual levels which shows similar obvious spacings. This cycle, which has also been observed in other countries, is close to the period of the Gleissberg cycle, well known from solar-
magnetic and cosmic ray studies.”.
If the cycle continues, then we can expect above average east coast rainfall over the next 40 years – but it’s an ‘overall’ not an ‘absolute’, ie. there can still be bad drought years within that period.
I’m not convinced by the reference to the Gleissberg cycle, which appears to be somewhat longer than the observed NSW rainfall cycle. However, I have passed Lake George on many occasions since the late 1970s, and while it was brimful in the late 1970s, it was dry grazing land from the 1980s onwards until the triple La Nina of the last few years, and it is now just about full again.
Governors Phillip and Macquarie warned about building in the path of floods. Still we don’t listen
Note the nearly 40-year absence of floods from 1819 to 1857 and the high frequency of floods in the years before and after.
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There is definitely cycles Mike, no doubt. All natural and totally unaffected by any minuscule man made inputs. Australia has always experienced a variable climate.
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And the west coast hasn’t had a long-term drought since the mid 1970s. No doubt when the next one occurs, there will be the usual “unprecedented “ outcries.
20
Here’s the southern Australian rainfall graph and the bad Millennium drought is evident this time.
But rainfall was much lower from 1900 ( or 1896) to about 1945.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=saus&season=0112&ave_yr=7
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AND. A BOM graph, no less. Amazing.
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Jo. I would just like to take one issue with this great Article and that is with the use of the word ‘we’. I would have used the word ‘they’ as we here (apart from Simon and a few others) do not agree with the Climate Alarmists. Far from it in fact.
We know differently, thank goodness.
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AGAIN here’s the Aussie region LOWER cyclone trends since 1970 for both severe and non severe cyclones.
See graph at the link.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
50
The BOM graph for Eastern Australia does show the millennium drought, but that very dry period from 1922 to about 1946 is clear again.
And 1960s drought is also evident and the last 3 years of the FED drought that lasted from 1896 to 1902.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=eaus&season=0112&ave_yr=7
50
Here’s the life expectancy link that further proves that Humans have flourished since 1950.
And using UN data + their projections to 2100 show a global life expectancy then of 81.88 years.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/life-expectancy
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Will you stop looking at the data and go to the water cooler.
There can’t be any progress until you shut up and listen to the conversation.
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Thanks RB and I just love their Conversation BS and nonsense, SARK.
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“Furphy” comes to mind.
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Here’s the WA rainfall link from 1900 and a dry period from about 1929 to about 1969 and more rainfall since that time.
And much better rainfall after 1990.
But Jo’s higher rainfall SW corner of WA has seen a drop in rainfall since 1970s.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=wa&season=0112&ave_yr=7
20
As somebody has pointed out, the water catchment areas around Perth have not had much reductions in plant growth, so the actual runoff has decreased a lot more than the rainfall drop.
And every time I travel down south, all I see is lush green pastures and full farm dams.
20
No one seems able to understand or predict SW WA rainfall. It sits loosely confounded with three large ocean cycles IOD, the PDO and SAO. The most promising link I heard once was an inverse connection with Law Dome snowfall in Antarctica.
But yes, completely to the Streamflow collapse here which is far worse than any reduction in rain. I have heard it argued that the massive scrubby regrowth now common here soaks up much of the streamflow, while the removal of the tallest gums (around 100m) on the tiny ancient flattened scarp (which is only 500m tall at it’s peak) has reduced rainfall.
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The folks down in Denmark were saying that climate change was impacting their dams, but nobody seemed to mention the increased amount of tourists visiting there. And it seems difficult to convince others that the WA weather can be the opposite to the eastern side.
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As I recall Jo, there was a time when the scrubby regrowth in the catchments was cleared out regularly to optimize run-off to the dams. That no longer occurs – presumably due to the virtue signaling governments of our day and their oh so politically correct agencies which are now infested with “environmentally responsible public servants” and left wing greenies.
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[…] From Jo Nova: […]
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Something that is ALWAYS skipped over, in these drought/climate change gloom and doom stories. Is the massive increase in water demand/use.
More and more water is being taken out of systems, then when it starts to come up against the natural limits. It’s all shock horror CLIMATE CHANGE!
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Willis Eschenbach shows his global drought and rainfall studies at the link and finds nothing to worry about.
Here’s his intro referring to the latest IPCC report.
“Moving on to droughts, even the IPCC says there’s only one chance in five (“low confidence”) that global droughts are increasing (see the end notes). No flood or drought emergency. Nor have the “wet areas been getting wetter and the dry areas getting drier”. Here’s evidence from rainfall data”.
He also shows data from Dr Pielke jnr about droughts, floods and the insurance risks involved etc.
And he also shows a reference to the Palmer drought and flood index and his report was updated again in July 2023.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/25/wheres-the-emergency/
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How long before the BoM (Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology) alters the historical record to suit the Official Narrative?
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The sub-Saharan region of the Sahel, from the Atlantic coast to the Indian Ocean coast is regreening. Rainfall has increased during the past decades which is fundamental, but also, the CO2 increase of the past decades is also adding to the greening of the Sahel, and the rest of the world. Evapotranspiration in an increased level of CO2 conditions results in less water losses from the leaves. Therefore more rain and more CO2 together have a massive effect on the world’s vegetation, resulting in more food for humans and beasts.
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But the IPCC (International Panel for Communist Control) says otherwise. We shall all die unless we start eating grasshopper pies, deep-fried maggots, and salted sun-dried cockroaches and stop consuming bovine proteins such as meat, milk, cheese, and yogurt.
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And if think drinking oat milk – exactly how do you milk an oat? – is a good idea it was interesting to learn that the evil Blackrock has a major stake in one brand here in the UK and the Chinese were involved in one of the others.
50
I don’t know if anyone’s noticed, but this isn’t about ‘science’ anymore.
We can sling ‘studies’ or ‘papers’ back and forth, while the financial and political interests that fund science and academia are stealing the cows and burning the farm while we’re distracted.
We won’t even mention their plans for the children.
“Follow the science”
“No one is above the law.”
These once vaunted pillar values of modernity and nation states have been turned into statements of authoritarian abuse.
This is the clear primary historical significance of the AGW and Pandemic political constructs.
Multitudes more have and will, suffer and die as result of actions taken by governments to ‘save’ us, than would have occurred with utter inaction.
There are already ‘papers’ and ‘studies’ to support this assertion.
We are carefully tracking arrow inventory and distribution as Orcs flood over the parapets.
In an effort to win an argument with evil that doesn’t give a rodent’s pattootie what we think.
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I think you will find that the origins of global warming never was about science but about an excuse to set up a world government.
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I’ve always been late to parties.
And attended as result of crashing.
And departed as result of invite.
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I agree Gerry.. But perhaps it’s more about control.
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I’ve always been late to parties.
Which I only get into via crashing.
And depart as result of request.
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