It seems people only wanted renewable energy if they got cheap loans
Just as the quarterly reporting season revealed crippling losses for wind power and EV’s, so it is with Solar energy.
The general US S&P shares index gained 15% this year but The Invesco Solar ETF (Fund) which invests in solar energy stocks around the world — fell by a dire 40%. Even the US “Inflation Reduction Act” couldn’t save the solar sector. As finances tighten with rising interest rates, apparently solar panel orders are among the first to be cancelled.
Some of the worst performers in the whole US share market are solar shares, with SolarEdge and Enphase losing 70% each this year. A few weeks ago, the CEO of SolarEdge said revenues this quarter were about half of what was expected. He blamed “unexpected cancellations” from European distributors. But US demand was down too. Indeed, the bad news started in California, the largest market in the US, when the government slashed home solar “net metering” payments in April by about 75%. Suddenly, it was going to take 10 years to pay off the panels. Solar panels were a luxury item.
If only solar panels were cheaper, in tough economic times, everyone would want them.
Solar Stocks Shaken By High Interest Rates And Supply Chain Issues
by ZeroHedge, Oil Price
The renewable energy industry is in full collapse mode this week. First, Orsted A/S, the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer, abandoned two major US projects due to supply chain and interest rate impacts, and now solar stocks are being clubbed like a baby seal in US premarket trading on Thursday after solar equipment-makers SolarEdge and Sunrun reported dismal guidance amid waning demand.
That’s a nasty surprise:
Let’s start with solar equipment maker SolarEdge Technologies. The company said current quarter revenues are expected between $300 million to $350 million, far below analysts’ estimates of $718.9 million, as per Bloomberg Consensus data.
This has been a sharp turnaround in the solar industry. The rocket-like growth of 2020 has collapsed. And as long as interest rates are high, nobody is talking about a fast recovery:
What happened to solar stocks? Investors ‘pick up the pieces’ after a brutal earnings season
Claudia Assis reports at Marketwatch,
Just about every major U.S. solar company had big quarterly misses…
Shares of Enphase Energy Inc. ENPH, which sells microinverters widely used in solar-power systems and can stand in as a barometer for solar, among other wares, are down more than 70% in the year. As recently as 2020, the stock drew triple-digit yearly gains; it rose 45% last year.
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. SEDG warned late last month that starting in the second half of the third quarter it experienced “substantial unexpected cancellations and pushouts of existing backlog” from our European distributors, a dip it said wasn’t related to the Israel-Hamas war.
Some residential solar companies in the US are down 55-70% too. These are terrible numbers.
Solar Stocks Still Searching For A Bottom
Beth Kindig, Forbes
Solar is arguably one of the market’s most sold-off industries at the moment,…
SolarEdge and Enphase are among the S&P 500’s worst performers this year, falling more than 70% each; a significant weakening in US demand starting in Q2 worsened with weakening European demand in Q3, causing revenues to nosedive. Residential solar companies SunPower, Sunrun, and Maxeon have all declined more than 55% to 70%, as well.
The decline was sudden in Quarter 3. What was a 25% growth in quarter two, became a 34% fall:
Enphase echoed SolarEdge’s commentary about weakening EU demand, as European revenues fell (34%) sequentially in Q3, after recording +25% QoQ growth in Q2. That’s a pretty swift QoQ decline in European revenues, which Enphase attributed to “high inventory at our distribution partners along with a softening in demand in our key markets – the Netherlands, France, and Germany.”
The near-term outlook for solar has definitely taken a hit from high rates impacting demand – a forecast from Wood Mackenzie/SEIA is pointing to a YoY decline in US residential solar installations in 2024, weighed down by a sharp contraction in California. Overall, the group expects installations to drop (4%) in 2024, dragged down by a (38%) contraction in California primarily due to the shift to NEM 3.0.
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Very profitable industry – so long as taxpayers subsidize it heavily.
But . . . oops! . . . taxpayers are getting tired of throwing their money at rich homeowners putting up solar roofs, and rich drivers buying Teslas.
If you can’t figure out who the sucker is at the card game, it’s you. Taxpayers finally woke up a bit.
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Wait until the storm cells hit today. Large hail will have its effect no doubt but that will ( may ) mean that if insured they will be … wait for it … renewable.
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Even Fortescue have dropped their proposed solar farm planned for Western Australia.
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Was that solar and wind development not going to power Twiggy Green Hydrogen Hub?
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Must find the comment with the link I made a few days back , didn’t mention the hydrogen hub just the wind and solar project .
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Behind paywall , only two links I can find are the Adelaide Adertiser and Cairns post both paywalled though .
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=AAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.adelaidenow.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Ffortescue-metals-scraps-plan-for-renewable-energy-hub%2Fnews-story%2Fdf0a3843e01f885b9d2396fd63ba6335&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE
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Th entire rock-show has ALWAYS been an enormous “wealth-transfer” scheme.
The next phase is this “green Hydrogen” caper; The “perpetual motion machine” for the 21st Century.
Funny how one does not hear the term “Entropy”, anymore; too navy syllables (or questions)?
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Get woke, go broke.
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Not quite correct. They go woke and we go broke. The left always use someone else’s money.
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Therein lies the problem! They get woke and we go broke!
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so the truth is out.solar energy is great when highly subsidized against coal generators
Take away the money and solar is exposed as a fraud.
Turtle Bowen please note.
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The Left are not going to give up on “renewables” (sic).
Less “investment” (sic) is merely the next part of THE PLAN.
With less electricity available the standard of living of non-Elites will have to be reduced even further.
Even solar and wind plantations can deliver small amounts of electricity for subsidence living.
E.g. all The Proles need is one or two LED globes for night time lighting, power for a small smart phone (enables Big Brother to track and spy on you as you walk within the confines of your 15 Minute city) and a small laptop-type device for you to receive government propaganda (disguised as “entertainment”) and to spy on you via a built-in microphone and camera, much like the Telescreen in Nineteen Eighty Four.
You will also need a small amount of power to operate a small refrigerator to keep insect food and to cook said insects.
Power can be harvested during periods of wind and sun and stored in a modest 100Ah battery.
What else do you need?
As Herr Kommandant Klaus Schwab tells us, “you will own nothing and be happy”.
Recommend videos:
https://youtu.be/3KZN6aznOwI
https://youtu.be/UrEUzKTt7j0
https://youtu.be/KahvmKkzUEY
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How much does Klaus Schwab own?
Maybe he could start by setting a good example and showing us proles what it will be like when we have to live in the way he proposes.
It might be a good idea if all the the WEF members followed suite.
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Schwab probably sold out when the price was high unless he is so stinking rich he wouldn’t notice the loss. Of course, the other side of the coin might be that he has never invested in unreliables in the first place.
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There is a fundamental problem with something that produces electricty when it is needed least.
Peak electicity demand is in the late afternoon and early evening when the Sun is setting or has alrady set.
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You will doubtless get buried by the battery brigade! but the point is correct!
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Oh riley? Solar Stocks crashing but: https://www.thebuzzevnews.com/bp-texas-solar-project/?oly_enc_id=1138E7788801I2V
yes Really: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/06/solyco-switches-on-vertical-pv-systems-on-green-rooftops-in-germany/
for How Long : https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/03/chinese-pv-industry-brief-spic-commissions-2-gw-of-aquaculture-pv/
so this will keep the peace, eh? https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/02/new-research-suggests-renewables-may-not-necessarily-foster-democracy-peace/
but in Portugal: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/07/portugals-prime-minister-under-investigation-for-alleged-lithium-hydrogen-corruption/ and Bosch in Portugal ( some good news ):https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/02/bosch-invests-106-million-in-heat-pump-factory-in-portugal/
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Something not being talked about is the number of houses being burned down by shoddy solar inverter wiring. We’re hearing about the car batteries, but not about green house fires.
Read this for a trip into the mind of a special pleader.
‘According to the Fire and Rescue NSW, in the last 5 years, solar panel related fires have increased five-fold.
Energy Safe Victoria has encouraged homeowners to get their solar power systems serviced after a series of house fires.
That said, solar panel systems in general usually pose a low fire risk. Most of the fires associated with solar systems are caused by poor installation or defective parts like DC isolators, sensors, or junction boxes rather than solar panels. A correctly installed and well-maintained solar system is incredibly safe and shouldn’t pose a fire risk issue’
Yeh, dude? Everything is safe when it’s working as intended. The whole point is that when something goes wrong your house burns down. ‘Incredibly safe’. Well there’s something I’ve never heard before. Not installing solar panels would be incredibly safer.
Stupidity link here: https://www.fallonsolutions.com.au/solar/information/can-solar-panels-cause-fire
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So all the highly paid analysts didn’t see this coming … hmm. And they look after our pensions. Seems like they all eat their own BS and are divorced from reality.
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Most “analysts” (sic) work for the “Big 4” (Deloitte, KPMG, PwC and E&Y) and are highly dependent on government contracts.
They are not likely to say something at variance with the Official Narrative.
I have personally witnessed this myself and have seen them consume millions of taxpayer dollars on utterly useless and pointless projects.
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Pink Batts sound familiar! Another expensive Labor Greengage fantasy!
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Geez, the head of the Reserve Bank still thinks you can solve inflation by hiking interest rates. She ( Bullock ) is another one of those ” experts”, probably supported by an army of analysts.
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Does anyone else suspect that Michell may have previously been known as Michael ?😳😱
..(asking for a friend !)
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Whatever he, she or it identifies as, it is fully woke:
Almost certainly quota placement.
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Does Michele Bullock value diversity of ideas?
About interest rates?
Or about the causes of climate cycles?
Or, well, anything that matters?
Or is it about following the woke-ists’ fashion??
Auto – simply askin’
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Whether the RBA understands economics or not (probably Keynesian, so not), interest rates are still effectively negative against inflation. They must rise further if we want to get serious about the money supply. The base rate probably needs to be around 7% (currently 4.35%) or we are headed for a destructive spiral of currency devaluation.
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Wonderful news and I just hope the slide continues and hopefully picks up speed.
Meanwhile here’s the latest debate between Dr Steve Koonin and Dr Roger Pielke jnr about so called net Zero by 2050.
I think Steve won easily, but Roger had a hard job trying sell the idea that we should shift to net Zero before we have a real replacement for BASE-LOAD energy.
See the video at the top left of Roger’s page.
https://rogerpielkejr.com/
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Just reminder that Human co2 emissions in 1988 were 22.11 billion tonnes per year and by 2021 were 37.12 billion T’s per year or an increase of about 75% in just 35 years.
Yet co2 levels in 1988 were about 350 ppm and increased by about 20% or from 350 ppm to 420 ppm by 2021.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL
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AGAIN here’s the total Human co2 emissions but comparing OECD to NON OECD co2 emissions from 1988 to 2021.
Nearly all of the extra co2 emissions have been emitted by China, India + other NON OECD countries since 1988.
Anyone NOT SEEING a problem for the silly L W extremists?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=Non-OECD+%28GCP%29~OECD+%28GCP%29
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Hi Neville.
It is worth noting that large changes in emissions have no detectable If increasing our emissions has no effect on the growth of CO2 there is no reason to think reducing our emissions will have any effect.
influence on the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2.
The late Dr.Murry Salby showed this back in 2016.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8niiyDn2FI&list=WL&index=1&t=1008s
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So is is worth me replacing 15 year old panels on my house?
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Take the panels off. Replace the roof.
Take the panels, crush them, and fill the holes in the road. Likely illegal.
Better: set the panels in an interesting way in your town square and call it an art sculpture. Ask for a payment of 100,000 dollars. Get a picture with you in front with a silly grin.
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I was actually asking a serious question. But I guess that’s a no.
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The serious answer requires more info from you.
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Depends how efficient they are- Ignore all else and see if new panels will pay themselves off over & above your current ones.
The Fire Chief said the panels were not the cause of fires, it was the wiring and electronic gizmos.
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The answer is NO. Not unless you are connected to a lead acid battery bank with suitable charge controllers.
If you are “selling” back to the grid, then you are no more than a virtue signalling vandal, destabilising the grid and damaging other people’s appliances with your weather based power surges.
I run solar PV systems. One for my kayak, and one for home emergency power. Neither is grid connected. If you grid connect PV arrays, you are a vandal. You are damaging public infrastructure and other citizens appliances. Cease and desist.
If you want to use PV solar responsibly, then you do as I do. You connect it to safe storage, and never, NEVER, connect it to the grid.
Are we crystal?
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Konrad,
While I understand your sentiments and underlying truth , he is in the same quandary as I am . I am going to be taxed to feed to the grid and thus it gives me little choice but get storage or try to balance load with production . The other issue is going to be reliability of supply from the grid – I would bet that access to the grid will entail your storage being used for grid stability .Off grid capability and standby generators will make you the most popular people in the area if the grid fails .
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Probably not. They, even in the slightly degraded age related state, are still producing usable power. Though I would consider options if the inverter needed to be replaced.
My 11+ year old panels are producing at about a 90-95% level using the face plate ratings when compared with the one year old panels on the same roof. I re-used 10 out of 16 of the older panels when the inverters were replaced in order to inexpensively reach the maximum wattage permitted in WA, saving something over $1000. Finding an installer willing to do that was a “challenge”.
Grid connected panels are one of the few inflation protections that the consumer presently has. And I would hope that after 15 years the capital cost has been fully recovered.
But having customers demand profile change has created some new issues for the large scale grid generators. And their (new) costs have to include modifications to the distribution network which your roof top panels do not incur.
Only when battery backup/storage costs at the customer level are sufficiently inexpensive will there be long term sustainable changes.
At the grid level there will almost certainly be requirements for on demand generation at 100% confidence level or the economy (and the modern lifestyle) will “suffer”.
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If your panels are truly 15 years old, then I would suggest they are nearing the end of their useful life and will have to be replaced in the near future.
You will have to consider, honestly, if they have been financially worth it, and then carry out a cost benefit analysis for their replacement for the next 15 +/- 5 years. Note that, Electric costs will rise and subsidies will reduce.
Personally, I wouldn’t touch them, but then I live in the ‘sunni’ UK and consider them an environmental no-no.
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I think this week “The Australian” is either posting a feature or hosting one of those gab-fests dedicated towards achieving Net Zero. Sounds like something from a Utopia episode. Probably a host of government people and supposed industry leaders all in complete denial and talking up solar:wind: green hydrogen:unicorn farts etc. None on them will be discussing the reduced investment and returns from renewables as this article discusses. There will be an abundance of lies told about costs of electricity generation and how the Australian Government is saving us from Climate change, no doubt. Lots of social media photo ops and pictures for the press with probably some grand meals. Could you envisage anything more ridiculous?
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“Suddenly, it was going to take 10 years to pay off the panels.”
At roughly which point many users will find themselves having to replace the panels, which means they may NEVER pay for themselves, especially in low-consumption households. Maybe the best quality panels last longer, but they will take longer to pay off.
I would also like to know how efficient the average installation is after four or five years of no cleaning, which is quite likely I think. I know that my camping solar setup is significantly affected by even just a weekend’s worth of dust.
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I live in a retirement village in the Adelaide Hills and new residents are unable to install rooftop solar as the SAPN network in the area cannot handle any additional input. Bad for installers and the residents.
This is not something I have heard mentioned previously but can understand that the existing infrastructure will have limits for handling daytime power generation.
As well as improving distribution systems to handle the extra load of everything electric (especially vehicle charging) there is a need to add capacity for the extra generation by rooftop solar that our governments are still pushing for us to install.
Of course, Blackout Bowen will keep claiming renewables as the cheapest form of energy generation as he will conveniently not include the cost of infrastructure improvements.
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Haven’t seen recent stats for average time period a resident lives in a retirement village. But a while back the average was 7 years. I wonder how many residents who install solar are there long enough to get into positive cash flow territory?
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??…why would that be an issue ?
A RT solar system does not have to feed power back to the grid ..( hardly worth it at current FITs)…especially if an battery is installed.
It sounds like either missinformation, or a deliberate plan to limit further RT solar which reduces grid revenues !
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Recently, i watched a video of an EV owner in Adelaide using a V2 G (vehicle.To Grid) system in conjunction with his 10 kW RTsolar set up, to run an “arbitrage” income .
HE stated that his best day result was to earn $183.0 from grid feed ??🤔😱
Is there some special grid feed in tarrif in SA that could possibly enable this ?…
…..because i figure it would need to be near to $2.0/kWh for him to earn that much !
Or, as i suspect it was just BS ?
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In August I wrote Your EV shall be the backup battery for the grid to make wind and solar profits possible
There is a scheme in SA.
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If anybody is in the market for a large bridge, Mr. Evans might be able to help out.
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I assume that the grid would only want to drain your battery at a time when the renewables are not providing – at night and during no winds. This time might coincide with when you actually wanted a full charge, peak rush hour times. Maybe one will need two EVs, or a generator to charge your EV !!
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Jo, i understand the principals of the V2G, V2L, V2H, and V2X , ideas, ….
….but for these to be financially viable to the owner, the ..”not very clearly explained”.. implication is that the EV owner would get a much higher FIT than the currenty available 8-10C /kWh !
Infact the suggestion is that the EV owner (V2G customer) would somehow access the variable WHOLESALE electricity market in order to arbitrage the variability ?
…i do not see that being possible !
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John;
when i was in Woodside the local supply couldn’t handle the number of solar panels on sunny days. The system was to run the voltage up until the solar panel controller shut the panels down. I had a reading on mine of 270V and my next door neighbour of 275V.
This was supposedly illegal as the supply at that Voltage would burnout a lot of electrical devices.
I think the Grid Co. had to install more equipment.
Are you in Mt.Barker where my retirement village is?
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One of the fundamental problems with domestic solar power is the time shift between supply and demand. The demand for electric power for domestic use occurs during the evening peak but there is reasonable diversity in its use which spreads the load over a few hours. The domestic power grid distribution system is normally designed for this diversity of usage. Solar PV supply, however, all peaks at the same time towards the middle of the day when most people are at work and the kids are at school so domestic demand is low and hence the power distribution system is required to accept a domestic supply peak which may be greater than the evening usage peak. The more houses that have rooftop solar, the worse the problem becomes and so, to prevent either overload or overvoltage, the rooftop solar supply must either be switched off or throttled back to within the constraints of the distribution system. In either case, the feed-in tariff will reduce proportionally to the number of houses with rooftop solar which results in a diminishing return to justify installing rooftop solar panels.
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Solar stocks crashed because Reality is an unyielding force.
There are no “infinite” subsidies, nor “infinite” grid intake capacities.
A stable grid is the result of intentional engineering aimed at supplying the “load” presented by society. Everything in the Grid was designed to “see” the Connected Load at a power factor of 0.85 or better, at a decreasing voltage from the point of view of the generators, with designated swing generators providing or absorbing reactive power as required to stabilize grid voltage and frequency.
Solar inverters upend that planning. They must inject power at a higher voltage than the mains or no transfer takes place. This defeats the existing sensor and feedback systems that control the mains synchronous generation and protective relaying that sustain the existing grid.
In short, intermittent generation destabilize the synchronous grid generation. Synchronous generation is the backbone of the grid. It has always been so, and always will be.
Solar and wind generation are parasites upon existing infrastructure and will never be dispatchable generation. The costs to integrate unreliable generation belong solely to the undispatchable generators. That includes poles, wires, transformers, switchgear, and efficiency offset costs to the synchronous generators. Anything less is an exercise in economic and engineering suicide.
If Wind power were viable, the Dutch would have overtaken the world in the 1500’s. If Solar were viable at grid scale, there would be no need for subsidies.
This entire farce of “intentions, legislation, obfuscation” is incompatible with physics, economics, and power engineering. High time for the ignorant to stop fleecing the gullible for a fantasy that can never be reliable or economical.
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I think there’s going to be some problems with Australia’s “Green” retailers, despite paying “has been” cricketers to shill for them, when panels become unobtainable. Then it’s “stumps.”
So much for 20 year guarantees!
There is no guarantee when the supplier folds their tent.
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There is no guarantee when the supplier will end their innings.
Now your comment smashes it out of the park.
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From the article: “Solar Stocks Still Searching For A Bottom”
Is “Solar Stocks” a kinky pseudonym used by Bowen at night in Darlinghurst?
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Now the Chinese are demanding more EV subsidies.
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Definition of “Supply Chain Issues”. We’ve found out that no one in the world can manufacture and supply the parts cheap enough for us to make a profit unless we get more subsidies.
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It is amazing how expensive free energy is…..
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Seems to me if we wanted to construct a workable system with a mix of new/legacy energy technologies, we could do it.
But none of the decision makers want that.
Industry wants subsides, and new subsides after the last subsides fail.
Politicians want hysteria narratives to convince the citizens to hand over their wallets.
By the time the citizens have lived long enough to recognize the pattern, they’re in the retirement home.
We just had the short historical period post WWII where we could pretend that Age Of Aquarius Star Trek World was here.
Mini skirts and Route 66 were very cool while they lasted.
Truth is, we’re just getting back to normal.
Turns out human normal is really unattractive.
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Just to illustrate …
this is the Nelson Riddle theme music from ‘Route 66’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbvsqtPmaHc
The culture and vibe that produced this is gone, and it will be a long time before this quality reemerges.
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Optus stocks crash!
Jimmy Giggle explains in one of his funniest parodies since the lock downs
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More ‘evidence’ that the green/climate BS is just political smoke and mirrors.
“… the UK will need around £1.3tn to meet its infrastructure goals, but only £700bn in funding is currently secured from a mixture of public and private sources, leaving a £615bn shortfall.
The areas most in need of additional investment include onshore and offshore wind, carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, rail electrification, new homes and retrofitting insulation to existing housing stock.”
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2023/11/uk-faces-615bn-shortfall-in-infrastructure-spending-by-2030/?utm_campaign=E%2BT%20News%20Redactive%20Template%20Campaign%20-%2007%20November&utm_content=E%26T%20News%20-%20Members&utm_term=822304&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Adestra
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Hmm.. ?….i suspect they have overlooked a few hundred £bn for battery storage ..!
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Talking of renewable fires, the London Grenfel Tower fire was also due to the Green Crusade.
a. The fire was caused by a cheap fridge, filled with methane because CFCs were banned.
b. The cladding was added for Green insulation, but turned out to be rather flammable.
c. The all-knowing big brother society said ‘stay in your house – whatever you do, don’t try to escape’. A strategy that backfired spectacularly when the fire rushed up the outside of the tower, and forced its way in through melted windows.
About 70 people died.
R
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ido6NrjGi2o
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[…] JoNova […]
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