The big sunspot cluster that created the auroras a few weeks ago is very likely just over the horizon on the sun, and it appears to have spat out a doozy of an X2.9 flare to announce its return. While we can’t see the sunspot cluster itself yet, astronomers estimate that it is the same angry AR3664 set that has been circling across the far side of the sun for the last two weeks. This hyperactive region launched the X class flares that produced auroras on May 10th that were so powerful they lit up the skies far from the poles in Florida and Queensland.
The solar storm was big enough that it reached down and twiddled with compasses on the sea floor as far as 2.7 kilometers (1.7 miles) underwater. So we are left with the paradox that solar weather controls half the groundwater refill in China, shows up in patterns of lightning in Japan, and somehow correlates with jellyfish plagues on Earth, but can’t possibly cause climate change. Apparently, our air conditioners can contribute to a heatwave but the vast electro-magnetic dynamo 333,000 times heavier than Earth can not. We know this because a foreign committee in Geneva says so, and they have skill-less models to prove it.
The global climate models agree that the effect of the solar-magnetic-wind and electric-field is exactly 0.0 degrees (per doubling of their NSF grants).
Some very active sunspots may last for months and each full rotation of the sun takes 27 days, so it may do a few laps and we may get more bites at this cherry. Or, if the sun is particularly grumpy, it may get more bites at us.
As the sun rotates we’ll see more of what is probably AR3664, though to confuse things, when it rolls over the horizon it will promptly get a new number-name. (It has and is now “AR13697”). It’s difficult to track what happens to every sunspot cluster as they travel across the far side of the sun, so all sunspots shifting into view are automatically given a new number. Though according to Daisy Dobrijevic at Space.com “scientists can track the sunspot’s progress across the sun’s far side by observing how it affects the sun’s vibrations or seismic echoes, using helioseismology data.” Sounds tricky. You’d think we’d have a camera on an asteroid on the far side recording the other half of sun, but we don’t. We spent $100 billion trying to blame a fertilizer for our storms, but a lot less than that trying to understand the sun.
As it happens, some officials at NASA even think the May aurora show was “one of the strongest auroras in 500 years”. They argue that some 7 different coronal mass ejections traveling at 3 million miles per hour, piled up together on the way and arrived all at once. In the last 70 years the other two big events were in 1958 and 2003. The Carrington event was so big it was seen in the Caribbean.
People who want to see an aurora may get lucky in the next two weeks if a flare is ejected in our direction
For those keen to see an aurora, look out for notices of a large X Class flares. Depending on how fast the ejections travel, the charged particles usually arrive here about two days later, but may come anytime from 15 hours to 4 or 5 days later. Once the particles hit the satellites at the Lagrange point the instruments give us about 15 to 45 minutes of warning. The Lagrange point is 1.5 million miles away from Earth towards the Sun in an area where gravitational and centripetal forces equal out, and it takes very little fuel for the satellites to maintain their position. It is the closest thing to a parking spot in space where our space-cars won’t roll away if we’re not looking.
Check the Glendale App for information or sign up for email alerts from the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre for aurora or from SpaceWeatherLive. Some bright spark set up Aurorasaurus to track aurora related tweets. Apparently they correlate quite well with geomagnetic indices. If only people were tweeting 150 years ago.
For the record: Solar flares are graded B, C, M and X class, with X being the largest and each grade putting out ten times more energy than the grade before. Within each grade there are nine log divisions (Eg. M1, M2 etc.) There is no upper limit on X class flares and the one in 2003 overloaded the instruments (which max out at X17). It was later estimated to be X45, which sounds like it could have eaten the earth. The flares in May were smaller, like X4.5 and X5.8 but conglomerate.
X class flares can trigger planet wide radio blackouts and potentially widespread auroras.
UPDATE: Auroras are a fickle tool for measuring solar activity as only the ones aligned the opposite way to Earths magnetic field will generate the color-show in the sky.
“The degree of magnetic disturbance from a CME [coronal mass ejection] depends on the CME’s magnetic field and Earth’s. If the CME’s magnetic field is aligned with Earth’s, pointing from south to north the CME will pass on by with little effect. However, if the CME is aligned in the opposite direction it can cause Earth’s magnetic field to be reorganized, triggering large geomagnetic storms. “ — Space.com
The direction of the solar wind interplanetary magnetic field is called the clock angle, and to see an aurora we need the “Bz” to be negative. Since the sun flips its own magnetic field with each cycle, perhaps one orientation is more likely to generate auroras than the other? Some Russians claim that “odd numbered” solar cycles are more exciting for aurora watchers (and this is an odd numbered cycle — number 25). It maybe no accident that the last big auroras were 21 years ago at the peak of the last solar maximum with the solar north pointed in the same direction as it is now. So get your fill now of auroras if you can. It may be 22 years between drinks, so to speak.
UPDATE #2: Sorry — thinking about it, the sun flips magnetic poles at solar maxima (ie. soon) not at solar minima but we label the “cycles” from solar minima to minima. Hence each 11 year Schwabe cycle will be half North-South, then the sun will flip to South-North for the second half. So it doesn’t necessarily follow that odd or even solar cycles will be better or worse for auroras. There is probably a 22 year pattern for auroras but it will be split across Schwabe cycles.
Thanks to Willie Soon.
spaceweather.com per May 29th
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How long before warmists blame “climate change” for the behaviour of our variable star, the sun?
In fact, the reverse is true.
The sun causes genuine climate change.
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‘The sun causes genuine climate change.’
I’ll add this for those who maybe unaware.
https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/17/how-we-know-that-the-sun-changes-climate-ii-the-present/
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It’s Back! The Super Solar Storm & X-Flare Producer Returns
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For interested in sun flares:
pfu @>10 MeV 1976 – act.
May 2024 inclusive.
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A satellite at each of the Sun – Earth Lagrange points L4 and L5 is better than the asteroid idea. Alternatively Sun – Venus (possibly best) or Sun – Mercury L4 and L5. Some in Sun polar orbit would be good also so we get a better look at the Sun’s poles.
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As I have said many times before, warmists are “staticists” meaning they don’t think the planet or sun ever changes. This is the Aristotlean world view.
The idea that the earth and universe is static is a very primitive one and articulated by Aristotle in “In the Heavens” 350BCE.
It is only in the last 100 years or so that the ideas of Alfred Wegener (1880-1930), a real climatologist, geologist, geophysicist, meteorologist and polar researcher came to be accepted that the earth is not static. Among other ideas he conceived of continental drift which led to plate tectonics.
However, as early as 1840 Louis Agassiz (1807-1873) hypothesised that much of North America was once buried under glacial ice up to 3km deep and that climate must change.
Milutin Milanković (1879-1958) also discovered natural cycles in the climate.
Warmists have to do a lot of catching up with modern thinking.
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Crucially, despite being a polymath and really smart chap, Wegener never explained the mechanism behind continental drift.
It wasn’t until after Vine & Matthews published in 1963, and a lot more data collected from sea-floor spreading centres that plate tectonics went “mainstream”.
Arguably, this was enabled by the Cold War, with the USA and the USSR doing incredible amounts of bathymetry to aid their submarine-related capabilities.
Until this paper came out, it was still a bit too wild for some. Geology textbooks up until the 60s and even some in the early 70s didn’t take it as seriously as they do today. (Collecting old geology-related text-books is a small hobby of mine…)
The paper:
Vine, F.J., and Matthews, D.H., 1963. Magnetic anomalies over oceanic ridges. Nature, 199: 947–949
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Luckily by far the biggest problem facing humanity is carbon dioxide. The stuff from which all life is made. Pollution.
And we have that under control with perhaps half a million giant plastic fans and millions of salaried Climate Scientists working on the problem.
You know you are safe from nuclear war, pandemics and carbon dioxide pollution when you have the United Nations on the job.
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My view of government, in fact my mother’s view, is that people sit around wondering how to get more money out of the public. And the only things not taxed are sex and breathing. I have to say the solution to the second is very cunning.
Don’t tax breathing in. Tax breathing out! Everyone, every living thing breathes out CO2. Even the ocean. Toxic industrial pollution!
All it took was the invention of Climate Science, THE Science. Brought to you by the UN. Who cares if it is science fiction?
It’s like taxing water, which does kill many people every year.
And perhaps sunshine. There must be a way. Maybe a sunspot tax? To pay for sunspot protection.
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Looking back at past events from newspaper reports of Aurora’s they are often brighter closer to the equinox. This situation has something in common with what happened later in June 1991 though. Low cosmic radiation pushing back.
From The Canberra times back then.
and
Lights visible at night over most of Australia
The Canberra Times Sat 15 Jun 1991 Page 20 Aurora australis sign of solar flares.
The article also mentions a storm in 1989.
From these two long record neutron monitors, here and here you can see a massive head on colision between the solar and cosmic rays on May 11 this year but also note that the cosmic radiation is at its lowest in 20 years due to the near inverse of the solar cycle. Back in 1991 there is that big drop in cosmic radiation.
Lance Pidgeon
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The 1991 newspaper link.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/118150877
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As a child I could gaze at the pale yellow Sun a few seconds. Try that now it’s blindingly WHITE.
Nobody or least very few I ask about this have no such memory.
Is the Magellan effect real?
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Go to Specsavers!
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The sun has not changed colour
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Will, that effect could be due to changes in the rods and cones in your retina. If those cells don’t have the same level of protection they won’t be able to handle that massive dose of energy like they used too, or you might be deficient in any vitamin or mineral which might make you more photosensitive. I don’t recommend looking at the sun too often. It will be using up cellular resources like antioxidant and other protection, and may be aging those retinal cells. But you might want to search on “light sensitivity” or photophobia, and vitamins and minerals. Maybe try taking niacin (B3) B12 (not the cyanocobalamin form), lutein, Vitamin A. Eat egg yolks. Leafy greens.
GeeAye, the sun has changed colour during every solar cycle though it is mostly in the UV and infra red range that we can’t see.
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Thanks for the last line Jo. Not something I was aware of. It would still be true to say to Will, “the sun today looks the same as the sun of your youth”. (unless you are a bird or a bee though I’m going to gues it would be too subtle for them)
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41377-022-00750-7
Solar UV spectrum variability from dozens of research efforts using a mix of methods (observation and model) and time periods and wavelength ranges. Definitely a soft spot in climate studies that skeptics could be probing.
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Why is it the job of skeptics? We don’t get a billion dollars a year to understand the sun.
Dare I say it’s something that the CSIRO / EPA / NOAA / NASA ought to be looking at and are paid to ignore?
PS: We skeptics have been talking about solar spectral UV changes for a decade now (albeit not that often).
https://joannenova.com.au/2016/06/new-science-25-seven-possible-ways-the-sun-could-change-our-cloud-cover/
You commented on that post. You could try reading the posts I write…
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Sorry that I am only allowed to give you one green tick for that comment Jo. You just beat me to it.
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Hmmm new science predicted a cooling before now. That worked out well.
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True. There was a cooling trend from 2016 to the start of 2023, then a very sharp rise. The big question is whether the rise after that was due to Hunga Tonga or not. I’m drafting up something on that. Hard to say. Water Vapor in the stratosphere… how much warming will it do? Thanks for the link. Now if I had a billion dollars or even a million I could have done more on that…
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When will History Repeat in the age of the internet?
The Carrington Event was the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, peaking on 1–2 September 1859 during solar cycle 10. It created strong auroral displays that were reported globally and caused sparking and even purported fires in multiple telegraph stations.
The aurora was also visible from the poles to low latitude areas such as south-central Mexico, Cuba, Hawaii and Queensland.
Because of the geomagnetically induced current from the electromagnetic field, telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving their operators electric shocks.
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Sunshine, come on back another day
I promise you, I’ll be singing
This old world, she’s gonna turn around
Brand new bells will be ringing
{Jonathan Edwards, 1971}
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Jonathan Edwards – Sunshine – Vinyl 45 rpm – 1971
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HOKI0byY0Q
“If he can’t even run his own life, I’ll be damned if he’ll run mine”.
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This series of events might be connected to the shifts in the earths magnetic field recently . We might be looking at a magnetic pole reversal soon . There are truly massive forces at play and we are spectators only .
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Over the past few days in Perth our DAB Radio reception has become really poor. FM Radio reception is better as we have a dedicated FM Antenna. But , background noise still persists.
There is definitely something out there.
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Accidental red, apologies, fat fingers.
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One of the themes that runs through this article is the utter waste of money that has been devoted to the climate “crisis”. Which we can honestly say is just a climate “scam” IMHO. If only 5% of the money wasted could have been devoted to all the known and unknown variables that may have an effect on the world’s climate, the world would have been in a much better place. Perhaps invested in better health or agricultural research outcomes. But I’m coming to the eventual conclusion that the well-being of human culture on earth is not upper mind of those who control our governments and corporates. That climate change has gone way beyond science and even politics now. It’s now just a huge money making machine for those who already have heaps of money.
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George said it so well –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EA3ec-YmLYw
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There was a time when the hippies welcomed it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYDrgLRK_p4&ab_channel=MarcREGNAULT
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UPDATE ADDED TO THE POST: Auroras are a fickle tool for measuring solar activity as only the ones aligned the opposite way to Earths magnetic field will generate the color-show in the sky.
“The degree of magnetic disturbance from a CME [coronal mass ejection] depends on the CME’s magnetic field and Earth’s. If the CME’s magnetic field is aligned with Earth’s, pointing from south to north the CME will pass on by with little effect. However, if the CME is aligned in the opposite direction it can cause Earth’s magnetic field to be reorganized, triggering large geomagnetic storms. ” — Space.com
The direction of the solar wind interplanetary magnetic field is called the clock angle, and to see an aurora we need the “Bz” to be negative. Since the sun flips its own magnetic field with each cycle, it’s not surprising that one orientation is more likely to generate auroras than the other. And so it is that “odd numbered” solar cycles are more exciting for aurora watchers (and this is cycle 25). Hence the last big auroras were 21 years ago at the peak of the last solar maximum with the solar north pointed in the same direction as it is now. So get your fill now of auroras if you can. It may be 22 years between drinks, so to speak.
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UPDATE #2: Sorry — thinking about it, the sun flips magnetic poles at solar maxima (ie. soon) not at solar minima but we label the “cycles” from solar minima to minima. Hence each 11 year Schwabe cycle will be half North-South, then the sun will flip to South-North for the second half. So it doesn’t necessarily follow that odd or even solar cycles will be better or worse for auroras. There is probably a 22 year pattern for auroras but it will be split across Schwabe cycles.
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Testing
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The news we have all been waiting for – the thumbnail is brilliant – copied here:
“BOM’s official winter outlook unpacked
By weather reporter Tyne Logan
Every inch of the country is likely to have higher-than-normal temperatures between June and August, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s official winter outlook. Just how wet it will be, however, is less clear.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-30/winter-forecast-2024-australia/103897954
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-30/winter-forecast-2024-australia/103897954
The news we have all been waiting for – like the stock reports in Trading Places – the thumbnail is brilliant – copied here, caps added for emphasis:
BOM’s official winter outlook unpacked
By weather reporter Tyne Logan
EVERY INCH OF THE COUNTRY is likely to have higher-than-normal temperatures between June and August, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s official winter outlook. Just how wet it will be, however, is less clear.
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I plan to move the fridge and get air con installed – just to prove their forecast wrong.
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Meanwhile, as reported on msm INDIA is expereincing the highest temperatures on record with 52c being recorded.
Funny but India is a big place so there is a fair chance that only SOME parts of India are recording these high temperature and the media bites have only shown city scenes with people suffering heat distress.
Any chance that these high temperatures are because of the heat island effect?
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The Dutch are the breakthrough and the gullible warming fraud will soon be over.
Our big problem now is that Albanese is Penny Wong’s puppet.
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An interesting read.
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Sun spots are significant in history. Galileo was not locked up for supporting the Copernican thesis of a sun centric system. That was obvious to sailors. His great discovery with his telescope made to a documented Dutch design was that the sun had spots. Of course he did this by projection onto paper.
And his plotting of the sun spots proved not only that they existed but that the sun rotated! This was heresy. Catholicism had ingested many religions, the principal Religions of Rome being Mitras the bull and Sol, the sun god. So the saints had solid gold halos, images of the sun. These later stylistically became rings. And his theory of a rotating imperfect sun reduced the sun to the status of a planet in an imperfect universe.
(The letters are fascinating and cover sunspots, the phases of Venus, the moons of Jupiter, the fact that sunspots were not planets, that the moon was not translucent and fundamentally that the celestial bodies were flawed. And far worse, he made enemies of the Jesuits in the time of the inquisition. It is amazing how much Galileo discovered with such a basic telescope. He was a very logical analyst who must have really annoyed the Jesuits with his acute observations and proofs.)
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It must annoy Pope Francis that he cannot lock up people like Donald Trump or Climate Deniers and especially new Argentinian PM Milei who is demonstrating that it is extreme socialism which has impoverished Argentina. It is ironic that the new Climate Change religion is being adopted by the Church as gospel. Again the problems are heretics and indulgences. Time to lock up a few skeptics like Galileo.
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It’s time to start worshipping Sol Invictus again.
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[…] From JoNova […]
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