By Jo Nova
It wasn’t supposed to be this cold and windless in Australia
For some reason that no climate model can explain, Australia has run out of wind power three months in a row, which means we had to use more gas than expected. It’s also been colder than climate models predicted, despite global emissions being higher than ever in history. For some other reason that no rational adult can explain, the State of Victoria banned gas drilling for most of the last decade (to reduce the beachy-weather days in eighty years) and thus, as night follows day, the state is running out of gas. Ergo, predictably, it is also facing blackouts, cost blowouts and manufacturers dependent on gas are warning they may have to close down, or move to the US, where gas is still cheap.
If only the climate models could predict temperatures and wind even a month in advance?
The AEMO (our electricity grid manager) says Victoria will run out of gas before winter runs out of bite. Apparently Victorians are pulling twice as much gas out of their main storage as they can afford to at the moment. Not only does Victoria need the gas for electricity, but 80% of Victorian homes have gas for cooking or heating. And then there is manufacturing, not just in Victoria but most of Australia as gas prices rise all over the East Coast.
Who needs explosives and fertilizer, anyway?
Orica — one of the largest gas users in the country warned it may have to cut production and jobs in Newcastle due to the gas shortage. Since they supply explosives to the mining industry, and Australia is a big quarry, the repercussions would spread quickly.
Victoria’s main gas facility to run out by end of winter as wind farm output slumps to five-year low
By Perry Williams, and Rhiannon Down, The Australian
The nation is facing a deepening energy crisis on two fronts, with gas shortages so acute that Victoria’s main storage plant is set to run out by the end of winter and one of Australia’s biggest manufacturers warning it will slash jobs and close factories if supplies remain short.
German Morales, Orica’s president for Australia Pacific and sustainability, told The Australian that “there is not enough gas and there is not affordable gas”.
“Clearly if we fail to secure long-term gas at a reasonable market price, we may be put in a position of rethinking what is the manufacturing strategy for ammonia in Australia,” he said. “The Australian gas price is significantly more expensive than that you can buy in other jurisdictions, such as the US. That’s making it very difficult to justify manufacturing in Australia.”
And we thought wind generation was bad in April and May but June may be worse.
The awfulness of the fickle wind is upon us and reaching into our wallets. This was the total contribution of 11.5GW of wind generation to our national grid this month. Paul McArdle from WattClarity said the capacity factor for wind is as low as 21%.
Not-so-coincidentally on June 4th and June 13th when wind generation was exceptionally low, average prices in the whole system doubled (See below).
And this is a major problem with an electricity market that isn’t designed to find the cheapest solution for consumers. Cheerleaders like the CSIRO will still be saying “wind is cheap” when it’s obvious the lack of wind in a wind-dependent-system is very expensive. But these price spikes that were caused by wind turbines will be slapped on coal, gas or hydro, whatever rescued the grid, not on the wind industry. The more wind fails, the “higher” the prices are for its competitors. Neat eh? If only the “experts” at the CSIRO understood how unreliable wind drives up the cost of everything else on the grid.
Bad days for wind were June 4th and June 13th, then most other days too.
Those prices are awful and often obscenely high across all five states… On June 13th wind generation fell to just 88MW at lunchtime, and was low all day. The spike this produced is obvious.
Some of the lows like June 20th caused mayhem because they were hitting at dinner time when solar power has gone to bed. Back before the subsidized renewables gold rush, prices would average $30/MWh across the whole grid — not just all day, but all month. This month so far, average prices respectively are SA $197, Tas, $287, Qld $132, Vic $182, NSW $165.
It takes some skill to run out of gas when we are also one of the Big Three LNG exporters in the world, but the Australian government has achieved this. Incompetence knows no bounds:
Not to belabor the point, but if we had decent climate models, we would know.
Gas price cap train wreck on the way
by Saul Kavonic, The Australian
The gas industry is scrambling to try to squeeze out any incremental supply, going as far as blending extra LPGs into the gas stream to eke out an extra per cent or two of production. Every lever to lift supply has now been pulled.
Australia’s energy market is one hiccup away from a major crisis, again. The gas market train wreck – long visible on the horizon – is now in front of us. Set in motion by Labor’s hostile gas policies since 2022, there are no easy levers left to pull to keep the lights on, while also keeping us warm in winter, and manufacturing jobs going. And it is only going to get worse in the years ahead.
If we run out of gas, we’ll just have to burn diesel, or sit in the dark, banging our heads on a cold wall.
Image by ThankYouFantasyPictures from Pixabay
The list of Darwin Award winners in all Australia’s governments is very long.
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Except that the real award ‘winners’ are the stupid schmucks that voted for them and now have to live through this disaster. Remember that Kim Jong Dan has already gotten his massive retirement payout and the highest gong on the market for his troubles.
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Does voting make any difference in Australia? The green energy certificates LGCs were brought in by Howard. You get a PM who wants to change any of this and he gets forced out (Tony Abbott).
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Love that comment!
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All this is expected, planned, enforced. The idea that anyone is suprised is the surprise.
So just crank up those life saving windmills. And make ammonia. Carbon dioxide for food preservation. Plastics.
Shutting down the place is the entire intention of the Safeguard Mechanism Act 2023. with a 35% tax on all industries including public sewage, all transport, all manufacturing but especially steel and cement and glass and chemicals but also companies like the Trans Tasman Ferry. Those Tasmanians can sail across if they want to sell potatoes or import goods.
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Fancy that , running out of gas midwinter, maybe something to do with scheduled maintenance on the oil rigs in winter.
The sooner the blackouts begin, the sooner the Vicdanistanites might wake up, but I doubt it.
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Its much easier to con people than it is to convince them they’ve been conned.
38% of Vicdanistanis have Stockholm Syndrome. They fell in love with their abusive tyrant. They’ve got Battered Wives Syndrome. The rock-bottom they will have to hit before they wake up to themselves and the reality of their pitiful situation, is way down at the bottom of a deep dark hole.
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Yep. It’s the ineradicable human characteristic of VANITY.
People will simply refuse to understand that they can be quite stupid. This includes me if I persistently try to get others to realise this …
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We could be burning dung to keep warm in Vicdanistan and the Danstanders would tell you that Jeff Kennett caused the energy / gas. shortage.
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We Vicdanistanis are not a smart bunch of people, collectively speaking. Our favourite colours are red, green and teal. We require zero accountability of our politicians and we nod our heads in agreement as they implement policies recklessly pursuing net zero. As we shiver in the unexpected chill of a winter that was supposedly meant to be offset by the descending threat of global warming, we comfort ourselves by repeating the mantra “at least we’ve done our bit, at least we’ve done our bit…”.
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Well then, it’s time Victorians brought on its onshore Gippsland gas resources that have been sitting there around Bairnsdale and Sale for 40 years, but Labor doesn’t want the public to know about. Its’s quite evident to any outsider that the stupidity and ignorance of the committed climate nutters running this Melbourne-focused state would result in an energy crisis caused by their own credulous climate culpability, you really deserve to suffer the consequences of your deliberate actions, like a delinquent child you have to learn to grow up!
We in the rest of Australia are sick and tired of the garbage that spews from successive Victorian governments and the official opposition by its absence is if possible worse!
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Don’t forget that the clueless Vic Premier told us a few days ago that Nuclear energy was toxic and wouldn’t be built in her state.
Strange because OWI Data lists Nuclear as the safest base-load energy in the world.
But don’t worry I’m sure the Labor and Greens loonies will agree with her and anyway lefties don’t care about data and evidence?
Allan would rather destroy the environment and use her really toxic W & S and repeat it over and over again every 15 to 20 years.
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Has the OWI data been fact checked by the ABC? Just sayin.
All ABC ‘analysis’ of nuclear power so far has mostly been negative.
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I posted this earlier today as a Monday comment.
That new Finland Nuclear plant also has a CF of 93%, compared to Wind CF of about 30% and Solar CF of about 10% in Finland.
Obviously Nuclear energy is very cheap compared to toxic, unreliable W & S and these disasters destroy the environment and have ongoing replacement penalties that blows out their initial cost by at least 3 times.
IOW toxic W & S are just a super expensive, unreliable sick joke.
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From Tony’s data, average solar efficiency in Australia is 16.26%.
Average UK solar is around 10.5%.
These figures show that being a “sunny” country doesn’t mean that we can obtain much power from solar.
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If only we could ensure that the dopey Labor politicians who foisted this unnecessary situation upon us could be banished to Antarctica for the duration! Just losing their seat is nowhere near severe enough!
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“If only we could ensure that the dopey Labor/Liberal politicians who foisted this unnecessary situation upon us could be banished to Antarctica for the duration! Just losing their seat is nowhere near severe enough!” There FIFY
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No gas?
No problem – just use solar and wind.
/wakeup in 10…9…8…
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Yep, – bring on power outages and some of the dummy idealists will wake up to a cold dark world with prohibitively expensive electricity. Nothing quite like reality to change people’s minds.
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I’ve just finished calculating the total wind and solar costs, plus battery backup costs, if we want to go 82% renewables by 2030.
All wind would cost $186bn. All solar $201bn. Battery backup $700bn to $1000bn.
Cost of 10,000 extra kms of transmission lines, more than $25bn.
And the battery costs don’t take into account the need to only use 60% of the battery if long lifetime is required. Nor any battery charge/discharge losses.
Since all these items require regular replacement, each Australian household would have to cough up more than $100,000 every 10-15 years. (There are around 9.5 million households in Oz.)
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Battery backup $700bn to $1000bn.
This is far too low
Did you use A$750 per kWh based on Projected Liddell “Big Battery” – the love child of Mr Cannon-Brookes?
https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2023/december/final-investment-decision-reached-on-the-500-mw-liddell-battery-
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Based on year to date daily generation for NEM (80% of Australian total) to make Wind “reliable both daily and seasonally” would require 5% of annual wind generation as battery storage peaking in January
Based on year to date daily generation for NEM (80% of Australian total) to make solar “reliable both daily and seasonally” would require 11% of annual solar generation as battery storage peaking in March
To acheive 82% “renewables by 2030 – one scenario is to double current solar generation and to triple current wind generation
Costing battery storage at A$750 per kWh this scenario would cost A$8 Trillion for the NEM and A$10 Trillion for all Australian energy grids
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And to think that if we redirected the subsidies paid to wind we could afford a new nuke every year. I believe we pay in excess of 10 billion a year to the current crop of carpetbaggers, a figure that would blow out as more bird mincers are added to the grid, and that Saudi nuke cost about 8.7 billion. On cost alone nuclear is miles in front even before it starts generating electricity.
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Linked and partially cross posted at Cold, windless Victoria may run out of gas
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Watched a Labour politician on Sky about an hour ago bagging nuclear. She declared that the Albo government HAD reduced electricity prices by giviing consumers a price rebate. Ha, take our money off us, give us a small amount back and declare it a reduced price. I can follow that.
Then nuclear at old coal fired sites. Lady proudly declared that there was NO WAY nuclear power could be connected to the grid at these sites. After nearly shaking my head to the point of brain damage, I started yelling at the telly. Wonder what all of those transformers and switch yards are for, I thought that was how ANY generated power was connected to the grid. Apparently not.
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The idiot was probably confusing the fact that Solar is problematic sharing the same grid as coal,gas.oil or nuclear lol.I’m not up to speed on wind generated power on the existing grid.
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Yeah, Albo gives you $300 back after you’ve lost about $200 through your energy bills last year that was siphoned off to prop up renewables projects. The other $100 probably gets eaten up by your next two power bills due to the elevated prices brought about by their energy mismanagement.
The fact that Orica is hinting at shifting production offshore (much like Twiggy Forest did with his ambitious hydrogen project to Arizona) highlights the absurd energy/manufacturing situation in Australia. We have Albo and Big Wind Bowen spruiking a Future Made plan and a vision to make this country a “renewables superpower” when they can’t even organise reliable base load power.
Unless people wake up to the futility of going all in on renewables, this country is screwed…
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You are referring to Tanya Plebersek who has aspirations to be our Prime Minister. Admittedly she probably would do quite well against the incumbent but against someone with a working brain not so well.
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The existing sites could also use the existing generators as coal/gas/wood/nuclear fuels are only there to boil the water that turns the turbines
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The big worry is that both the state Labor government and the Liberal opposition seem oblivious to the fact that Victoria is about to run out of gas.
Lawrie, Rosanna
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>Back before the subsidized renewables gold rush, prices would average $30/MWh across the whole grid — not just all day, but all month. This month so far, average prices respectively are SA $197, Tas, $287, Qld $132, Vic $182, NSW $165.
Eye-watering but at least it’s available – for now.
Good luck Oz.
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But who really believes that reducing CO2 is the objective?
If we are going to be building $20Bn of transmission lines for the purpose of reducing CO2/power, then why not replace the ones we have with HVDC and halve our output of CO2 by halving transmission losses.
And upgrade the coal power stations to HELE high temperature and halve our CO2 output and halve our use of coal again. Nett result 75% reduction in CO2 in a few years for the price of Snowy II and stealing farmer’s land. And the coal will last twice as long.
So Mr Albanese, how would you like to reduce electric CO2 generation by 75%? And the lifespan of 100 years, not 20 so 5x the value.
Not interested? Why not use our biggest export?
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But who really believes that reducing CO2 is the objective?
The same people that believe lockdowns and mandates were about public health.
A category that excludes the promulgators of CO2 reduction, lockdowns, and mandates.
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There is a cutover point where HVDC is a better system than HVAC. Without checking, I think it’s 700kms. That’s probably why most of our long-distance transmission lines are HVAC.
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A case in point is the transmission line to Alcoa, the company invited by Henry Bolte to make aluminium in Portland. Unfortunately the best place was next to the power generation. But the politicians wanted votes in the Western District so we Victorians at the time had to pay $250Million for a transmission line to Portland, 500km. And lost half the power on the way!
Consider then a HVDC system today which lost nothing. Portland would have the power required at half the cost just on transmission losses. Incidentally Alcoa Portland is today massively unprofitable and again for politics and to save the jobs, the Victorian taxpayer pays the wages at Portland.
So rebuild the transmission in HVDC, convert Loy Yang to HELE and we would burn 1/4 of the coal for the same power at Portland and everyone would see a massive drop in electricity prices, coal consumption and CO2. We could use the same transmission towers at no cost.
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Yes, the trade off is actually not the transmission line itself, which is far simpler, but the cost of the conversion to a million volts and from a million volts at the other end. But that is a one off cost where the savings are perpetual.
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Not exactly.
Losses in AC systems is about 6%. 2% in Transmission and 4% in distribution.
https://insideenergy.org/2015/11/06/lost-in-transmission-how-much-electricity-disappears-between-a-power-plant-and-your-plug/
Even IF a DC Transmission system is used, and it is 20% to 50% more efficient in transmission losses, that is a 0.4% to 1% transmission efficiency increase. ( 0.2 to 0.5 of 2% ). The Distribution losses exist in either case.
So it is NOT a “half the price” situation to compare HVDC to HVAC in terms of transmission losses.
AND the converter substations at USD 500 Million each is a USD 1 Billion cost (for one input and one output line) that is offset by a 1% efficiency improvement? In what world? Over distances greater than 750 miles, it bears scrutiny. But the example of the Alcoa plant at 500 km ( 312 miles ) puts that away. 500 KV electronics are NOT cheap for HVDC. Roughly, it is USD 1 Million / KV of HVDC transmission voltage.
It takes a LOT of power over a LONG time to justify 300% to 400% increase in the cost of a transmission system for a 1% savings in transmission losses. The distribution losses are the same, either way, at 4%.
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And, further on, each HVDC converter/substation, consumes 0.6% of total power within the electronics.
So, for 2 converter/substations, the power consumption is 1.2% of total power.
Even IF the HVDC can cut transmission losses of 2% by 50%, that’s 1% savings in efficiency and is offset by the 1.2% consumed by the power electronics.
Overall, the HVDC isn’t really more efficient than HVAC transmission. Perhaps very long distances change the picture. Say 1,500 km or more. I just don’t see an advantage except in special circumstances. The efficiency increases could be met by better condenser water treatment that reduces heat transfer surface calcification.
This isn’t a simple “do this and we are saved”. It is one option among many.
If I’m mistaken, please point me in the proper direction.
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TdeF
But much, much, less opportunity for graft.
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HVDC systems require an AC:DC converter substation at the front end, and a DC:AC converter at the receiving end or any intermediate substation points. Each HVDC substation is about USD 500 Million. In the US, The “break even” distance for HVDC over HVAC is about 1000 km. Transmission voltages are 500 KV to 1000 KV.
Some claim the monopolar (single conductor) HVDC systems are acceptable, but the Earth is the other conductor, and the stray DC currents couple onto pipelines, bridges, building rebar, etc, and can cause accelerated corrosion damage. Bipolar (2 conductors) avoids this.
The HVDC system has some 20% to 50% advantage in transmission efficiency, but the practical limit for an HVDC system is a total of 5 substations, 1 at each end and 3 in the middle. Anything more than that is cost prohibitive (over USD 2.5 Billion, just for the substations).
HVDC has its place, but the ultimate load served will still be AC systems. About 0.6% of total power is lost at each substation to power the electronics.
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Overall resource: Transmission Cost Estimation Guide
https://cdn.misoenergy.org/20220208%20PSC%20Item%2005c%20Transmission%20Cost%20Estimation%20Guide%20for%20MTEP22_Draft622733.pdf
Substation costs, see link above, sec. 4.3.
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Matt Kean just another cynical politician
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3WSZvBAP8U&t=95s
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We’re following Europe to a tee, not just in policy but in outcome as we exhaust the gas reserves due to the attempted transition away from coal. We already know what comes next, which is gas rationing, huge energy price spikes, more taxpayer funded energy austerity and economic chaos. Running out would be a bad outcome but it might be the only way to re-educate the brainwashed population.
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A short sharp slap might wake a few people up…
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Sounds like another “advertisement” –
“20 confirmed dead in massive South Korean lithium battery factory fire.”
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2024/06/20-confirmed-dead-in-massive-south-korean-lithium-battery-factory-fire.html
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The wind in the south will return in July as it always does when the winter storms arrive.
On the present weather front, there is a low west of Tasmania that will influence Victoria. More significantly, the convective potential over the Caribbean is building impressively. Bodes well for a solid hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=cape/orthographic=-66.63,16.38,458/loc=-72.153,15.312
India now has the monsoon established so the hot dry of May is now hostory and water, water everywhere.
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Perhaps – but how will that magically refill the LNG storage tanks ?
BTW, in my lifetime, the longest period of winter blocking highs I can remember was in the late 60’s, when the continent was essentially windless for almost 3 months.
I now live in a quite cold region of NSW and am totally dependent on gas supply for heating, hot water, cooking. Rationing is existential, literally. I’ve watched this stupid disaster unfold now for over 30 years … August westerly winds are not useful – and no, I’m not spending $30k-40k on “electrifying” because the Victorian population votes stupid.
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Michael Shellenberger talks about how safe Nuclear power is and tells the truth about Chernobyl and Fukishima.
Start at about 12 minutes into the video and this then runs for another 8 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciStnd9Y2ak
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Time to turn up the ducted central heating (gas of course).
The system must be destroyed in order to save it.
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Great news about India. And a salutary point that the Climate Porn pushers always find somewhere in drought to point out Climate Change is real. Or a very hot place in mid summer. Or 2.5 Million retired muslims trying to walk up Mt Ararat in 50 degree heat without shade. But in fact reading between the lines, the world is actually getting cooler. Certainly the Southern Hemisphere.
And who cares about everywhere else? The world is not coming to an end because it is 3.5C hotter at night in the Scottish highlands in May, as the British MET tried to argue. Everyone in the highlands would have been thrilled. But they twisted it around to argue that Britain had the hottest May in history, which was so obviously wrong there was total disbelief.
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The BOM should be able to help advise on the need for more Gas and Electricity.
But wait, this is our BOMs forecast for winter from just over 3 weeks ago. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20240530-outlook.shtml Using one of the biggest computers in the Southern hemisphere and “empirical data in”, the predictions of way hotter than average winter temperatures, for most of Australia, are already a bit off track. I suspect these frosty days down the east coast wouldn’t fit in the top 20% hottest of winter temperatures over the past 30 years.
At least the BOM tells us not to depend on their forecasts to make business decisions, like farmers did last Spring and Summer when they sold off their livestock at depressed prices.
But feed in some models and a few garbage assumptions into that computer, we should be able to depend on them to predict the weather in 100 years within 1 or 2 degrees.
We can lock in business decisions on that and throw every billion dollars we can borrow or steal, at a range of unproven technologies (stay away from proven technologies like, nuclear generation), to produce pleasant weather into the future. Makes perfect fiscal sense!
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The old weather adage says there is always at least one place warmer than where you are and at least one place colder than where you are at any given moment in time.
For confirmation just read what the good book has to say about what’s new under the sun in a word.
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Orica’s Newcastle plant was their cash cow, for obvious reasons. To be discussing layoffs there is remarkable.
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There’s incredible irony in this whole “ Victoria running out of gas story”. We’ve got oodles of gas in already discovered reserves. Shout out to Robert Gobliesson who has been writing about a huge gas reserve in Gippsland for years , via articles in the Australian. It’s easily extracted and also associated with almost pure water which could be used in agriculture. Its reserves compare favorably with the old Bass Strait supplies. But here’s the rub. Both sides of politics have refused to allow any further gas on shore drilling for decades. So, it’s not a Labor only thing. The LNP are just as brainless.
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Jo,
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. What you’re looking for is a decent *weather* model.
It’s a crucial distinction. The huge variability of *weather* is what makes wind turbines so utterly useless. How would it be if we had a *perfect* climate model? Day after day the projection would be for the average amount of rain, average temperature range, … and you could bank on average wind being available every day. Of course reality wouldn’t match the model, but the errors would all average out over 30 years.
From time to time, both sides use the weather is not climate argument. We should adopt the climate is not useful argument. Weather extremes matter; averages don’t.
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Australians have been given a three year delay to their execution by (lack off) electricity.
With natural gas on the East Coast of Australia looking to become “unreliable” energy along with wind and solar – that leaves coal to keep the lights on.
We can only hope that Eraring stays open to April, 2029 – and then what?
AGL is replacing coal fired power stations with “Big Batteries” similar to that being installed at the Liddell Power Station site and is opposed to Nuclear Reactors being used instead.
AGL Energy’s largest shareholder, Mike Cannon-Brookes, has told company directors that “AGL is one of the most toxic companies on the planet” and it would be easy to fix its problems.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/agl-one-of-the-most-toxic-companies-on-planet-cannon-brookes-says-20230811-p5dvpr
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We have plenty of gas left underground . At some stage we might get to use it ourselves . We will probably end up buying it from the US at extortionate rates as Europe is doing (sigh). Smart is limited , stupid is not.
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For the AU leadership, there are zero consequences for being wrong.
That’s how this game is played. Power without responsibility.
An effective solution would be such that consequences ensue.
Promise lower electricity prices if x/y/z are done, then if the lower prices do not arrive, as promised, all pensions/assets are forfeit to the treasury. That would change some thinking, voting, and promising.
Likely never see it, but the sage Thomas Sowell said a few wise things:
“It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.”
“What is history but the story of how politicians have squandered the blood and treasure of the human race?”
“It is usually futile to try to talk facts and analysis to people who are enjoying a sense of moral superiority in their ignorance.”
“Only in government is any benefit, however small, considered to be worth any cost, however large.”
“Prices are not costs. Prices are what pay for costs.”
“Nothing is more complex than avoiding the obvious”
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If there isn’t enough gas, then where are all the gas exports coming from? Can someone explain?
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could it be that the cost of shipping NW coast (WA) gas to Victoria is more than the cost of shipping the same gas to Japan?
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[…] From JoNova […]
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Sadly, one lemming always wins the race to the cliff.
Also sadly, the others seem not to notice.
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