JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Looming European energy crisis: A lesson in averages that won’t soon be forgotten
From the BOE REPORT
Terry Etam
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/09/23/looming-european-energy-crisis-a-lesson-in-averages-that-wont-soon-be-forgotten/
150
Australia’s energy crisis, due to expensive “green” energy, is partly hidden by the fact that most people live in areas where the climate is mild and the inability to afford heating or cooling only makes you uncomfortable, it doesn’t kill you. Also, in Australia, most people don’t seem to notice the shutdown of industry due to expensive green energy.
230
And direct illegal taxation by edict. The Safeguard Mechanism 2023 is a 35% CO2 ripoff using ‘certificates’. As fuel is the greatest running cost in aircraft, shipping, trucking and more, expect prices to soar.
How can you make steel without making CO2? Or any metal from oxides?
Or fertilizer? Or concrete?
250 of the biggest organizations in Australia have started to pay and the press says nothing. We cannot afford a 35% tax on everything we do. Trucking companies. Even sewage is taxed (MMBW). The Trans Tasman Ferry. Glass makers. Miners. All chemical manufacturers (which is why the only plastics recycler has left the country, killing 800 jobs).
The communist Albanese/Bandt war on Australia is well underway. Forget lobster sales. Soon Australia will put itself out of business. We are drowning in punitive CO2 laws. The price of electricity is just the obvious sign. The job losses will accelerate. Whole cities like Whyalla will soon be out of a job.
210
Prices are already soaring and Charmers is pointing the finger at the reserve bank for the problems. But now the ACCC has hit the supermarkets for false advertising on prices. The term “smoke and mirrors” come to mind.
130
Aircraft, bridges, are not designed based on averages – they are designed to handle worst-case conditions, then some. Same as our power supply system. If we expect the quoted 99.998% reliability, it has to be designed to cope with the worst case. And if the idiots want to power 82% with renewables, then sufficient backup storage has to be provided for the worst case absence of this unreliable power. This is not two hours as the CSIRO’s GenCost believes, it’s more than 48 hours – some say one week, others 28 days.
And when you do the maths, there is no way Australia can ever pay for 48 hour’s storage, let alone one week or 28 days.
110
Bridge design usually centres around fatigue life. It is cycle life under tens of millions of load cycles that matters. They are most vulnerable to a single event during construction.
A household battery in Australia that supplies 48 hours of the average June demand will give close to the minimum cost solution for a stand-alone solar/battery system With solar panels optimised for winter, the CF of the panels ends up around 5%. Having a small amount of dispatrchable generation in a system can dramatically reduce the required storage. A battery that can supply 4 hours of average demand can make a big difference because it can level out the daily demand curve.
The current end game for the grid is collapse and electricity users will need to make their own. Yesterday at noon 44% of NEM power consumption came from rooftop solar. And increasingly, the grid no longer has access to actual electricity consumption data because there are consumers already making their own and the network operators have no way of knowing what these households and businesses are producing and consuming. Rooftop installations are already outpacing any increases in demand. The big consumers are already on assistance programs so only a matter of time before they close down.
54
Roof top solar is NOT a part of the NEM…..
…and nobody knows how much is being generated anyhow !
20
I think that I have made the comment that during June and July, my 5.2kW system, while working well in summer to reduce my power bill, only had five days each month where it was able to power my house, and it certainly didn’t have any extra power to recharge any battery.
Regardless, it seems that the govt is expecting that gas will always step in and help out as backup, but if they further reduce the amount of gas allowed on the grid, then gas won’t be able to help much. And I’m very dubious about the ability of gas being able to ramp up quickly, as all grid wind power can vanish in 60 minutes or less.
40
Video:
In the UK, “Bladerunner” from a popular crowd-sourced anti-ULEZ group takes down one the hated cameras designed to milk motorists dry.
ULEZ is an anti-car, anti-indivualist measure by the Left/globalists to reduce personal mobility/freedom under the guise of supposedly reducing air pollution.
Bladerunner uses a cordless saw.
https://youtube.com/shorts/epskJxvZnMU
Others do it with foam:
https://youtu.be/H_0e82gEd5o
Needless to say, such civil disobedience is not legal but resistance against police states never is.
260
The Empire Strikes Back
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr54dy09epmo
Man sentenced for encouraging Ulez camera vandalism
“A man who shared a message on Facebook encouraging people to damage Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) cameras has been sentenced.”
Obviously a very very bad man.
Mr Khan’s cameras and other forms of judicial restraint must not be touched.
Not even in imagination.
Not by chainsaw, foam, hacksaw or any other form of device.
“Sentencing, Recorder Andrew Hammond said: “The right and wrongs of Ulez are not a matter for this court but in any event this case is not about Ulez but the rule of law.””
This chap actually threatened violence against the electricians replacing the cameras – which is not acceptable.
But people [some people] are not happy with Mr Khan’s cameras – and the charges of £12-50 per day …
Doubtless a tame ‘academic’ will be found to ‘prove’ that “millions of lives have been saved” by this measure [as long as the grant money still flows …].
Auto
00
If Trump is elected, and he will be assuming an honest election, I wonder how much the world will remain committed to the wind and solar scam which he will unwind?
Unfortunately, they remained committed during his last term, especially in the fanatically woke UN/WEF compliant countries like Australia. They remained committed even though the US economy boomed under Trump, partly due to liberating low cost energy.
Cheap energy is one of the many reasons the Left hate Trump.
211
I agree that another Trump presidency is possible, if the election is run fairly. But all speculation today focuses on who will win, what their policies will be (good luck figuring out what Harris will do though).
But there is another scenario we should be planning for – or at least American should be. Whereas a Harris win would tick off Trump supporters, I expect there would be little in the way of actual protest and the Harris administration would very rapidly stamp it out brutally. A Trump win, on the other hand, would trigger unbridled leftist fury. There would probably be further attempts on his life and BLM-style riots. Lawfare on a unprecedented scale would be launched against Trump and his senior affiliates.The permanent government bureaucracy would mount a full-on resistance movement, attempting to thwart or hijack every Trump initiative, plus actively encouraging civil disobedience.
Should all of this occur, America will be effectively neutralised as a geopolitical player, leaving lots of door open for China, Russia, Iran, etc.
90
“The permanent government bureaucracy would mount a full-on resistance movement,…”
Not this time.
If they try – and I am sure they will – they will suddenly become The impermanent government bureaucracy
Trump has learnt and has 4 years to get rid of obstructions.
80
I don’t think he can do that in one term. Let’s face it, those public service institutions, departments and agencies are huge, and the ‘rot’ isn’t only at the head – it goes all the way through. Even lower levels are full of Trump-hating activists, swamp creatures and Democrats. Finding replacements would be an enormous undertaking. Trump could get it started and then Vance or whoever the next Republican president is might finish the job (assuming he/she is isn’t another RINO of course).
40
The left may become furious if Trump wins, but that is all.
If Harris wins the hard right will shrug their collective shoulders and soldier on.
05
G’day David,
“…and he will be assuming an honest election,…”
I’m hoping you’re wrong, that he’s at least allowing for the possibility of malfeasance, has made Israel-level counter plans and wins cleanly and clearly. Which I then hope will be convincing even to his opponents.
I further hope that my optimism is not misplaced.
Cheers
Dave B
50
Norman Fenton (statiscian) recons Trump needs an 8 point lead to counteract Dem’s shennanigans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Bp2uyC0Ul0&t=1s
00
I learnt a new term … Scarcity Economics.
Heard a fellow, that claimed to be a former UN commissioner, say that the AGW/Renewable Energy thing was concocted by the IGO/NGO/UN types to create a Scarcity Economy.
I guess ‘cause abundance is anthropogenic.
In the New Religion, comfort is sin.
No air conditioning and minimal heat is the modern version of a hair shirt.
Seems to explain a lot.
Renewable energy isn’t supposed to work.
230
“In the New Religion, comfort is sin.”
Yes, but only for the hoi polloi, not for the people purveying the new religion such as the UN commissioner or the IGO/NGO/UN types.
100
This ‘New Religion’ sounds eerily same-same as the previous ‘Old Religion’, without the robes and pointy fish-hats and kissing rings… and of course all those holidays (saints’ holy days). As one who was very briefly an altar boy, this is not merely opinion nor conjecture: heck, my mother even named me after one of their popes, Gregorious, or should I say sixteen (XVI) of them.
Get ye out of Babylon, mon.
90
Possibly your mother wasn’t a student of Papal history?
You might then be
Bonniface
Evaristus
Anacletus
Telesphorus
St. Linus? Not quite a mainstream choice.
Or perhaps your mother may have considered Hyginus
Or would you like Dionysius ?
40
A glass of plonk, preferably red, always goes well with steaks and BBQs, so Dionysus thank you good sir, in remembrance of Bacchus, the god of wine, cin cin! 🍷
For legal reasons, however, I’ll stick with Greg, it suits me fine 😃
30
Your comment makes real sense after following Labor’s energy minister for the last 18 months. Seemingly blind to any other source of energy he blunders on tearing down huge amounts of frees for the wind turbines and their construction and access. Let us not forget the huge solar panel farms now defiling the landscape. I often wonder about the huge heat effect around those places, would be worse than the heat islands in cities.
130
Good thinking, Dave. With all that superfluous heat around, sounds like the perfect site for a BOM weather monitor.
10
Here is another video from the UK of a citizen resisting an illegal instruction from a police officer not to film their activities.
Maybe there is hope for the UK after all?
https://youtube.com/shorts/0UuqO90OHTg
121
A case for optimisim: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-21/major-climate-agencies-call-global-emissions-peak/104016030
219
It’s just propaganda for the naive and ignorant, Simon. Nothing to be optimistic about.
China is building two coal power plants per week and is the world’s largest CO2 emitter by far, with emissions twice that of the next biggest emitter, the US, and rapidly rising (not that it matters).
Where do you think the power to charge all the EVs comes from? It’s coal!
Any use of EVs is just a marketing strategy to sell EVs to the world. Plus, typically, Chinese can’t travel far because they work long hours on most days as virtual slaves. Short trips in EVs to shop are all they need. Plus, in that socialist utopia the Government tells them what they are allowed to buy.
200
It is sort of cute that they think this achieves anything. Its good they have a hobby.
80
Simon, take a look at this graph:
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_fossil_carbon_dioxide_emissions_six_top_countries_and_confederations.png
What do you notice about China’s CO2 emissions?
What do you notice about the emissions of USA, EU/UK and Japan?
Which is the problem country (according to your belief that CO2 is bad)?
Which countries have reduced their emissions?
Why do Leftists remain silent about China?
180
The optimism in India is all about rapid increase in coal production and consumption.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-coal-sector-sees-huge-leaps-output-demand-2024-02-28/
India is the most populous nation and has only started up its development curve.
Coal production was up again in the first half of 2024:
https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-july-2024/demand
China has bet its economy on western demand for BEVs and WDGs. But the western demand for these monstrosities is drying up. They are fads that offer no economic merit so will follow the dodo into extinction. So China might stumble for a couple of years until it rejigs these dying industry to produce different stuff that still finds a market in the west.
If there is a reduction in coal consumption, it will be due to slow down in demand for BEVs and WDGs because these are energy intensive products. The majority of them are coal sinks so the drop off in demand for them could lower coal consumption. Nuclear is the new fad and building that capacity will also require a lot of coal and it will be decades before it actuallty saves coal.
Making stuff requires burning coal. And, increasingly, imagining stuff with AI requires burning coal.
70
The ACCC is taking action against the country’s 2 largest retail store for being a bit dishonest & fudging pricing policies to confuse & trick a few more $$$ out of unsuspecting customers.
I d like an assurance from th ACCC that once they’ve taken this action & punished the guilty parties they’ll turn their attention to the dishonest lying Prime Minister & the entire Labor Party for their dishonesty, broken promises, deviousness & incompetence which affects the entire population. The most remembered dirty trick & lie I the $275.00 reduction in the price of our electricity bills. Believe me, this was the first of many, many more devious promises to gain votes for a devious, immoral, lying government.
Same principle that the retail stores are in hot water for. The Government which makes the laws should be more careful after all they supposedly set the standards!!!
This is what happens when you trust the Socialists. Hope the entire electorate passes the guilty verdict at the next & subsequent elections !!!
190
They should investigate their claims of operating on 100% “renewable” energy also. They use the same grid as the rest of us and operate using that energy. Everything else is just ACT style spreadsheet games.
120
The same claims are made for Tasmania, who clearly do not derive 100% of the power from renewables.
80
But Coles in Tasmania has signs saying they’ll be powered by 100% renewables by 2025.
I wonder what they think Hydro has been all these decades? 😉
60
I saw this quote, origin unknown.
230
All science is based on skepticism. Believing everything you are told is indoctrination. Only believe what you know to be true. It is the creation of Rene Descartes who lifted Europe out of the Dark ages. Cogito ergo sum. I think therefore I am. Man made Climate Change is a hoax, the greatest hoax in human history. After Marxism now reinvented as Post Modernism, the exact reverse of fact based science.
190
Remember also that the world was a place of war and poverty and dark Satanic mills in the time of Marx and Engels. It was his solution, a solution which created the greatest human disasters in history short of the Black Death. But Marx had no conceived of consumerism and war, especially WWII created the world’s first consumer society. And suddenly people had refrigerators and cars and holidays and good wages and could afford luxuries which had never existed. Shoes. Underwear. Running water, even hot water. Penicillin. Ultra sound.
So what do Trot Albanese and Lenin admire Bandt want? To wreck the joint. Shut down the electricity. Kill the jobs. It’s also the only path to power for desperate incompetent Marxists like Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. L. Ron Hubbard tried communism but invented a religion. The Rev Jim Jones too, and it ended in Guyana. The religion of Climatology is going well for High Priest billionaire Al Gore.
The anti democracy laws passed in Canberra in the last 26 years are beyond belief. All aimed at pushing Australia back into slavery, a mendicant state. Saving the planet on our own by robbing Australians and sending the money to China. As for the Quad, President Biden does not know what day it is. Which is perfect.
180
FWIW
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisvWxLWchUVJOefsQHdm8cx4a2iZ0W6yZ8FVZgVqUjBHo7w19wC74wfdZxxvulRgWuUJYo0cnz0YZXjRg-jm0vMSHHCTXPNruGbpwic_WLsOUkQQuD8KpyhtI4NIU4QyD3ZxjybkAzChCOWyWLUtNHXQy07AwXq2LDkxxIbOnCzED1X-wtgDjYrid_Zwo/s600/Meme%20-%20people%20who%20want%20socialism.png
60
Yes.
The Left are taking us back to the time before the Scientific Revolution (1543-1687), the Industrial Revolution (c.1760-1840) and the Age of Enlightenment (17th and 18th centuries, probably starting in 1637 with René Descartes’ Discourse on the Method of Rightly Conducting One’s Reason and of Seeking Truth in the Sciences (Discours de la Méthode pour bien conduire sa raison, et chercher la vérité dans les sciences).
153
I think you have an auto red thumb. I think using the word ‘left’ is objectionable to the left. You should use La Gauche.
53
Or perhaps the Latin, sinister.
Apologies to all left-handed folk.
40
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/09/23/firefighters-warn-australians-of-lithium-battery-vehicle-fire-danger/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=firefighters-warn-australians-of-lithium-battery-vehicle-fire-danger
80
Due to fire risk, it’s only a matter of time before EVs are banned from apartment block and other underground car parks.
And bizarrely, despite Australia having the seventh lowest population density in the world, it is Government policy to jam everyone into Hong Kong style apartments. It is part of the WEF “15 min city”, rebranded in Australia as “20 min neighbourhood” agenda. This will be the excuse they need to ban cars altogether, petrol/gasoline and EVs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density?wprov=sfla1
70
“Vibrant” has become a red flag word for me. Its usually linked with some idea that is being forced on others.
110
‘Robust’ does that to me,
‘moving forward’ and ‘sustainable’ as well.
Run!!!
100
Was there a palace coup at the White House? (article)
60
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/game-changer-global-mega-banks-prepare-major-support-nuclear-power
This could get awkward for Labor who seem to think disaster, dragons and financial doom come with nuclear power. If all their COP buddies supported by the big banks start going the other way it will get a bit tricky to maintain the rage.
100
FWIW –
“The problem with no one getting paid is no one is getting paid”
“About a month ago I did some serious digging into Alberta’s electrical grid going into zero dollar hours for pricing. As in all the power on the grid, for the generators anyway, was free, for a few hours. I thought I had published it, but apparently not, as I was reminded by @ReliableAB. And funny thing is, it happened again this past weekend.
The problem with no one getting paid is no one is getting paid. No business model is sustainable like that. I don’t care about averaging things out. No one wants to give away product for free, especially if they are paying for inputs like natural gas for fuel and staffing.”
More at
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2024/09/23/the-problem-with-no-one-getting-paid-is-no-one-is-getting-paid/
30
It is a lack of understanding of the nature of producing electricity.
The situation depends on the mix of generations. As an example, it can take maybe four days to bring a large coal fired boiler up to load. Once there, you do not want to shut down in a market whim. So you will ride through price fluctuations. Most coal generators in Australia bid in at the large NERGATIVE floor price for some energy so they remain dispatched. It forces wind and solar out of the system because they have limited capacity to recover negative prices below the mandated consumer theft. The reliable generators also get paid for stability services beyond any energy prices. Some get paid just to spin at minimum output to provide spinning reserve that enables the grid to ride through and clear fault conditions.
The last coal plant in Alberta converted to gas this year. Usually gas is more responsive than coal but not in combined cycle or just steam. There is plenty of wind and solar that has zerio marginal cost. There is a cost to regulate its output.
All regions in the NEM in Australia had wholesale negative prices yesterday. It often occurs. Yesterday at noon, the wholesale price was MINUS $32/MWh but coal was still producing 28% of the electricity. Rooftops were supplying 44% of the demand. Most rooftops are unresponsive to wholesale prices. They do not offload unless the local voltage goes high to limit their output.
Australia experiences negative wholesale price on most days during daylight hours; usually centred around midday. However, since Liddell closed down, profits have been higher for most generators.
There is a large and growing gap between wholesaler price and retail price in Australia. The only way retail price will drop in the short term is to eliminate the mandated theft from consumers. One Nation would be the only party likely to do that.
60
Tasmania’s Mount Mawson ski slope is looking the best it’s been all year after last week’s snowfall… sadly, their primitive rope-tow was half-buried and out of action, so keen locals have to hike/walk/huck uphill to enjoy the slide back down.
NZ’s Coronet Peak (the lowest in height yet most commercial ski area) has today announced they’ll extend their closing date to Sunday 29 September. Snow is forecast down to 500m this afternoon, almost lake level at Queenstown. The summit snow base is now just under 2 metres.
Across the valley, The Remarkables are CLOSED due to blizzard conditions, ie. wind, snow, total whiteout, well-below freezing. Their upper snow base is over 2 metres.
Smaller club fields shut for the season a week ago as rain affected their lower slopes, even though the summits are still buried under a metre or two. With this week’s storm cycle, some of them may re-open for school holidays next week.
Spring weather is always fickle: don’t pack your thermals away just yet.
50
This rain band coming to NSW, breaking records along the way, is going to develop into a cut off low and hang around the east coast.
‘An upper-level cut-off low pressure system is expected to drift over NSW from Thursday and linger over eastern Australia for several days. This slow-moving upper-level feature should cause a low pressure system or trough to develop at the surface near the NSW coast, leading to a 3-day period of increased rain, wind and swell from Thursday to Saturday.’ (Weatherzone)
00
FWIW – latest Kunstler
“Wheezing Past the Graveyard”
“”The Democrats are self-immolating on the altar of their own tenuous relationship with common decency.” — Tom Luongo”
https://jameshowardkunstler.substack.com/p/wheezing-past-the-graveyard
40
And
“Here’s How Far Down the Road to WWIII Biden-Harris Has Taken Us”
“Biden-Harris never had a plan, aside from rejecting Trump’s best policies and bringing back Obama’s worst. They’ve taken us halfway down the road to the Third World War, and we have less than two months to change paths.”
More at
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/09/23/heres-how-far-down-the-road-to-wwiii-biden-harris-has-taken-us-n4932754
50
‘ … took control of everything important in Crimea in very short order, presenting the world with a fait accompli that appears unlikely to be undone.’
Ukraine will take back Crimea by destroying the Kursk Bridge and continuing to smash oil depots and ferries. Trump and Harris are useless.
08
I can’t see, Japan especially, becoming another Y2K Hong Kong. They will fight.
10
There won’t be a China offensive, the Alliance would win.
Also you may not have noticed, China is on the brink of a Great Depression.
16
“They will fight.”
Do they owe the round-eyes that much? An occupation by the Yanks for the last 70years? They have a falling population that can’t afford to send its young men off to die, unless they are to be replaced by the usual 3rd-world immigrants the West is being destroyed by.
It would be easier for Japan to declare its neutrality between China and America, and stay out of the fight.
“the Alliance would win”
Are we talking Star Wars here? Who is “The Alliance”? Obviously not the West, they can’t even win in Ukraine.
00
The theory is that China will be foolish enough to attack Japan directly and prevent them from sitting it out on the sidelines.
I personally doubt that Beijing is stupid enough to do that … but in recent years I have underestimated human stupidity multiple times … so I’m reluctant to make a strong call on this one.
20
Another ‘real world’ EV horror story, this time a long-term test in the UK:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/hybrid-electric-cars/electric-car-mileage-challenge/
20
How about a bit more detail? I am not inclined to sign into a platform that needs advertising.
13
RickWill,
The UK Telegraph’s is not a sophisticated paywall. Disable Javascript in your browser and you’ll see the article.
FWIW, here’s a nice bit from the end. He suggests readers pose a set of:
50
Caption contest
“You must be tired after that long trip. Fancy a pizza? Hot dog, perhaps?”
20
“C’mon man. Just like the old days. Get the handshake out of the way then back to fisting”.
00
This last Sunday just gone marks six years I have been collecting daily and weekly wind generation details to calculate Capacity Factor. (CF)
The original reason I even started in the first place was to get an accurate account of the actual Capacity Factor (CF) percentage for wind generation. For the earlier ten years, I had been using a percentage of 30% as the CF for wind generation. That was based on an average I had calculated for wind generation, during the first year I started doing all this work on electrical power generation, way back in early 2008. Overseas, in other Countries where wind generation was becoming more established than it was here (and in 2008, there was very little wind generation here in Australia) wind generation was operating at an even lower CF than the 30% I had started to use, so, in fact, the CF percentage I was using for here in Australia was perhaps a little better than it was for already established wind generation in other Countries.
So, not much more than six years back, after a comment I had made at a wind power supporting site, where I mentioned that the CF was in fact, only 30%, one of the wind supporters replied to my comment that there was ….. just NO WAY possible that the CF for wind generation was as low as the the figure of 30% that I was using. He wanted to know if I had proof that the figure was that low. When I did some preliminary calculations on actual data for Australian wind generation, the percentage I worked out was around 27.5%. When I mentioned this in response, the other commenter said that it was nowhere near as low as that, and that I was just flat out wrong.
I was already well into compiling other daily power generation Posts there at my ‘home’ site, so I could see how I could go about collecting actual data so I could Update that ACTUAL CF percentage each week. The data has now been included in three separate Series I have done across the last six years, and each week, there at my ‘home’ site, I publish the updated percentage for that all important CF, and this CF percentage is the only comparison figure we have when it comes to power generation from Wind sources.
Right from the start, I could see a slight anomaly in the data that was being portrayed at the sites I use for this data collection. To show this, I can do the calculation for just the last year, 2023 (January to December) and the CF percentage I worked out by using that data was around 27.3%, and as you can see, the percentage figure I use is actually higher than that. The anomaly is that, during the year, and at different times across the year, new Industrial wind plants come into operation, delivering their power to the grid. As these new plants are added to the grid, I then Update all my data to include these new plants in the data collection, right from the moment they come into operation, hence, my data is in fact more accurate.
So, now, here we are, after six full years of data collection, 312 consecutive weeks of data, and (might I say surprise surprise) the actual percentage for that CF for wind generation is ….. 30.06%, ostensibly, exactly the same as the figure I was using all along. That CF percentage has been as low as 28.5%, and it was actually 31% for a couple of weeks across those five years, so the percentage I have used all along has been so close to that 30% figure all along.
It’s now an accurate representation of what is perhaps the only comparison that can can be made across time when comparing actual power delivery from wind plants., and here, for that purpose, I have two comparison rates, the full long term CF for the 312 week six years, and the second being for the most recent 52 week year. That second yearly figure actually proved to be a bit of a bonus for me in fact, and sometimes, you have no idea why you do something ….. like adding that second CF percentage for the most recent year. Even now, I still get comments that there is no way wind CF is that low, and a further dig at me saying that newer more efficient wind plants have much higher CF percentages, and that as new plants are added, then the CF will climb higher, and do so in a relatively short time frame. (actually something not really true because of the nature of the mathematics involved)
However, what the data collection IS actually showing is that the more recent 52 week year CF is lower than the overall, showing that those newer plants have lowered the CF, and currently the CF for that most recent year is two and a half percent lower, at just 27.5%, and ten weeks back it was as low as 26.3%.
The last ten weeks have in fact been quite good for wind generation with good winds in that area where around two thirds of all Australian Nameplate for wind power is located, the SE of South Australia, and Central Western Victoria, that area subject to the passage of quite large High Pressure weather systems, and when they ‘hover’ over that area, little wind blows. In recent times the Isobars have been closer together, hence high winds, so that power generation has been much higher.
The exercise over these years was thoroughly worthwhile, as now, there is an accurate accounting of what wind generation DOES actually deliver. So, from a total current Nameplate of 11,409MW, it is actually only delivering an average of 3422MW.
Tony.
170
Tony:
The earliest wind plants in Germany were said to run at 18%, which seemed low. Then I saw them in 2014 row after row across the East German plain. Just plonked onto the nearest vacant (cheap) land.
It took the offshore Horns Ref 1 photo 2008 to show the overcrowding effect.
Not the best photo but
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/2/696
50
Graeme,
Right from the start, I knew that pretty soon I would be found out. It was perhaps the hardest decision I had to make at the start.
As I started doing all this, I saw some articles that wind power was performing so poorly.
I was used to, well, power generation methods generating, well, their full power, and some articles I read showed wind power was (not quite) doing that. One article mentioned wind generation so low that I just ‘knew’ it was wrong.
So, I started to ‘really’ look at it
I found an article from Germany in my searches, and it was written in German, so I had to use the Google translate facility. It was strange to say the least, and it took me days and days of further research before I took my heart in hand and committed to Posting it at my home site.
I had this fear that this was going to be ‘the end of me’, before I had even actually started, because I could not believe that (if true) wind was such a, well, monumental flop really, at the generating power required, and here, back in 2008, it was being touted as an ACTUAL replacement for coal fired power, and with a Capacity Factor as low as what I saw, then then was patently not going to be the case.
I was certain that within a very short time of posting it all, someone would prove it wrong, and there it all went, with any credibility I thought I might have had now shredded.
But in the days and weeks following that, it only proved to be absolutely correct. Try as I might, everywhere I looked, not one single article was written about how low that CF really was, and here I explained CF up front, and I mentioned in other explanatory Posts around that same time that (as an example) a 350MW wind plant (fairly large for that time) was only delivering an average of 100MW or even less. (across time, like here a year)
I have those two earlier Posts linked below, and they show the German wind power fleet (all of them in Germany) were only operating at 20% CF. (and you also mentioned that as well)
This was back in 2009 when I posted it first.
Wind Power – Epic Fail
Wind Power – Epic Fail – Update
I was still (basically) ‘feeling my way’, but luckily my background in the electrical trade meant I could ‘work out’ the technical side of things, as the average person just believed what they read, that wind power was the answer to power generation to replace CO2 emitting power plants.
Patently, it wasn’t.
Tony.
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Thanks for all your efforts in diligently collecting and analysing this data Tony – much appreciated.
I combined the wind CF with your solar CF of 16.26%, then looked at how much of each energy source was used over one year. From all that info, I came up with a figure of solar and wind combined CF of 23%.
20
Do you think it is like dams where the most efficient sites are used first so all subsequent dams are less and less efficient?
Did they pick the best wind sites to start with, so even better engineering will not make up for poorer wind conditions on the land that is left.
10
Once again in the light of delayed realization.
What we have experienced …
Pandemic hysteria … whether zoonotic or a ‘lab’ produced … spread across the globe.
A ‘vaccine’ (a for profit commercial product) appeared to save us.
It was offered … later mandated to us, propaganda frightened citizens, for FREE.
Except, it was untold, uncounted billions of OUR tax (BORROWED against our future) money that was distributed to for profit corporations.
Our own future wealth trickled back to us to placate us from rebelling against our coerced self imprisoned compliance.
For a product THAT DID NOT WORK AS ADVERTISED.
Promoted with outright lies.
And very likely harmed as yet untold numbers of people.
And thus the BlackRoxs and the Bill Gaytz(s) of this world turn our future debt into present unprecedented wealth.
Assets with which they are probably planning another historically unprecedented robbery.
And take the pennies from our eyes.
It is only their Magnificent Lie Machine that keeps us from the streets, with our pre-industrial night vision devices, our manual pronged hay redistribution implements, and our hemp attaching accoutrements … in search of groves of stout trees.
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Finally, a mainstream [politician has directly criticized the vaxx and the mandates.
B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad said the vaccine mandates seemed to be more about shaping public opinion and controlling the population.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/bc-conservative-leader-says-covid-mandate-was-about-controlling-the-population-5728814?ea_src=ca-frontpage&&ea_med=top-news-top-stories-3-title-0
00
DON’T ALL RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS DO THAT?
Dr. Eli David@DrEliDavid
A regular house in a regular village in south Lebanon 👇
Ignore all those secondary explosions. I’m sure they don’t mean anything 🙄
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‘Missiles hidden in attics’: IDF targets Hezbollah arsenals in Lebanese homes
JACQUELIN MAGNAY and ANNE BARROWCLOUGH
In a post, the IDF showed off what is said was a long range rocket, “stored on a hydraulic system” in the attic of a Lebanese family’s home. The IDF said the rocket was “directed toward Israeli civilians and ready to be launched at a moment’s notice. This is just one of the 1,300 targets including long-range cruise missiles, heavyweight rockets and UAVs that were struck today in Lebanon and were going to be used to cause major damage in all areas of Israel.”
Israel also sent text messages and recorded messages to phones of Lebanese citizens and appeared to hack into radio stations with warnings ahead of the bombardment.
One message said: “If you are in a building with Hezbollah weapons, stay away from the village until further notice.”
I almost feel bad for Hezbollah. They’ve spent the 18 years since the Second Lebanon War preparing for this day.
They dug bunkers and tunnels, turned bedrooms into missile silos, and m@sques into fortifications. (1/8)
Andrew Fox@Mr_Andrew_Fox
Shocking scenes in Lebanon as the IDF bombs the house of a local fireworks enthusiast. Just look at his collection of Catherine wheels, Roman candles and bottle rockets going off.
Well, either that or Hezbollah are hiding arms caches in civilian houses. Hard to say.
21
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian@manniefabian
The IDF releases footage of an airstrike against a home in Lebanon where Hezbollah had stored munitions.
The video shows a rocket flying out of the building following the strike, and hitting an adjacent home.
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From the Comments
– Penny Wong, in my opinion, is the worst Foreign Minister, Australia has ever had.
– “Honey, did you notice a large missile in the attic the other day ? I just can’t remember anyone putting it there.”
– I did like the positioning of the fire retardant pressure cylinder next to the rocket. Thoughtful. I guess if you live in a residential property with a rocket in the attic you need to take precautions.
– Penny Wong, the conflict could stop now. All it requires is for Iran’s proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis – to stop attacking Israel.
– “Now remember son, if you go into the attic don’t mess with Dad’s rocket, I need that to shoot at those Israeli infid@ls.”
“Aww Dad, you’re no fun!”
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GREG SHERIDAN
Say what you want, Bibi and Trump have been vindicated on Mid-East policy
The tragic conflict unfolding in southern Lebanon holds the strangest geostrategic lesson: that the two most reviled democratic leaders in politics today, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, actually understand the Middle East better than most foreign policy professionals.
This includes, sad to say, the fatuous posturings of our own government.
Israel’s broad strategic aim against Hezbollah in Lebanon is to remove the constant threat to northern Israeli communities. Rocket attacks are one thing, but after October 7 these communities can’t tolerate the danger of cross-border terror incursions
More than 60,000 Israeli residents have been internally displaced now for nearly a year. This moves Israel’s effective border kilometres inside its nominal border. The October 7 terrorist atrocities have had a similar effect on Israeli communities near Gaza.
Israel is one of the smallest countries in the world, smaller than the equivalent of one-third of Tasmania. On every land border it faces enemies or recent enemies. It has been subject to repeated conventional military attack by massed armies, and every possible form of terrorism.
Hezbollah is a Shi’ite terrorist organisation, unlike Hamas, which is Sunni. Both are funded by Iran’s Shi’ite regime. All three are united by a profound anti-S@mitism, by an explicit determination to exterminate Israel and by a religious commitment to an Isl#mist political order.
Israel’s strike through exploding message pagers against Hezbollah terrorists was the most precisely targeted military action in modern warfare. Everyone with a pager was a Hezbollah operative. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is proscribed as a terrorist organisation under Australian law.
Yet the Albanese government criticised Israel’s actions. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets into Israel since October 7 and has long planned October 7-style murderous raids. The Albanese government claims Israel has a right to defend itself but condemns every single act of self-defence Israel takes or could possibly take.
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Rocket Report: Eutelsat’s surprising decision; Europe complains about SpaceX again
“We can’t compete on price per kilo.”
European officials complain about SpaceX some more.
Arianespace CEO Stéphane Israël recently gave an interview to the French publication Les Echos that has been shared by European Spaceflight.
It sounds like the once-dominant commercial satellite launch firm, which has been run over by the SpaceX steamroller, is tired of being asked about the SpaceX steamroller.
Israël said Europeans should “stop just comparing SpaceX and Elon Musk with Arianespace.”
Why? …
His reasoning for this was that SpaceX is not just a launch company but one that controls a broader value chain that includes satellite manufacturing and operation through Starlink.
“He competes against the entire space industry on his own,” said Israël.
In order to compete with SpaceX, he explained, “the entire European space sector must be united and ambitious.”
Israël identified Europe’s planned Iris² satellite constellation as a key project to ensure future competitiveness.
“Our hopes rest on the Iris² constellation promoted by the European Commission,” he said. The future of this project, however, appears to be uncertain, especially after the sudden departure of Thierry Breton from the European Commission this week. (submitted by EllPeaTea)
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FWIW
“Zelensky in the US To Show ‘Victory Plan’ To Feeble Biden – It Would Provide Ukraine With NATO and EU Memberships, as Well as an Endless Supply of High-End Weapons”
“Zelensky curiously envisions an outcome in which the nation that is losing the war badly can set conditions for the opponent that is winning it.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/zelensky-us-show-victory-plan-feeble-biden-it/
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‘Suing for peace is usually initiated by the losing party in an attempt to stave off an unconditional surrender.’ (wiki)
Zelensky only wants Crimea and all the other land that Putin captured, returning to the original borders before this devastating war began.
08
But the Pentagon of all groups, has said no to deep strikes into Russia, throwing a spanner into the neocon war agenda.
They’re not totally stupid.
Or are they?
Meanwhile the military focus shifts heavily to Isra##.
One way or another…
10
The Israeli conflict is a religious war and even Donald the Great won’t stop it.
Ukraine doesn’t need US support, they can win with the help of the EU member states.
Looking ahead, the golden age of US arms exports might be coming to an end.
14
Seven Days To Stop 1984! (video)
30
Bit late for that…
Top 2 focal points now are Japan and Isra##.
01
The biggest crime our so called leaders are guilty of is allowing a madman Putin to irreversibly wipe off the Yalta page of human history book.
In a certain way, we are closer to 2000 BC than to XX CE.
Bad or very bad, there was order in the house and miscreants with a bit of potential were kept in place.
Yesterday, a jungle village bully subjugated all neighbours by killing a family or two, eg – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kushchyovskaya_massacre and hiding it from the authorities.
Today he knows the reason why Kim the 3rd is still alive and happy.
16
Putin a madman?
He’s the sanest politician on the planet at the moment.
If he goes there’ll be a power-crazed nutjob to replace him and it’ll be game over.
Be grateful.
81
“Putin a madman?”
Yes, he is.
“He’s the sanest politician on the planet at the moment.”
Nope. Just because he’s not woke doesn’t mean he’s a great guy.
“If he goes there’ll be a power-crazed nutjob to replace him and it’ll be game over.”
Agreed. Not sure about the “game over” bit though.
21
I think the people who believe ‘Putin is a madman’ should read about Ukraine since the 1990s and tell us what they would do to protect Russian-speaking people in the Donbass.
Do they not believe..
The coup against the elected Pro-Russian Govt was organised by the Yanks?
There are blatant Nazi organisations and supporters in Ukraine?
To destroy Russia has been a long-term plan of the Yanks and they have pushed Ukraine into this war to help that plan?
The West is so far in the wrong in this confrontation its like talking to the TGA about their fake vaccines! People are so committed to “Putin is a madman” its like a religion.
20
Man’s inhumanity, the other day I saw on utube three Ukranian POW executed in plain sight of a visual drone. If those murderers survive the war they will be sent to prison for life.
16
That is my point.
All veneer is gone, just a few short years ago bringing a gay/lesbian partner to grandma Christmas Lunch was a big deal.
Not the same scale as deleting a few lives, or few dozens, or a country… but on iPhone screen nearly the same.
20
Sorry to disagree, E+G
Probably “those murderers” have already been rewarded – with extra days of life.
Possibly they will be further rewarded – https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://theins.ru/en/news/274794&ved=2ahUKEwieoIvNvdqIAxVO6jgGHcloAocQFnoECA4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3ydhZ0lyT-k6oKwWiw0rC-
10
Just another madman roaming the streets, wonder where he got his taste for hearts.
14
Woolworths burger patty- $9 (was $7.50) and shrunk from 500g to 454g (1 Lb) $19.80 per kilo- but they are now quarter pounders. Meanwhile Coles sells a 500g tray of 4 patties at 2 for $10.
Wow stealing a McDonald burger metric, shrinkflation and inflation all at once Woolies!
40
Buy from independent real butchers supporting local farmers instead.
Quality locally grown grass fed beef, the only way to go.
30
Only a year or so ago I used to pay $1.10 for small cartons of coconut milk, which were handy for adding to single serves of defrosted curry.
The same product yesterday was $1.90 – a 73% increase. I passed.
40
Freeze tinned coconut milk in old style ice cube trays for small quantities. Or in zip lock sandwich bags.
30
I tried freezing coconut milk and it ‘curdled’. It lost its smooth texture and went a bit grainy. Same happened when I tried putting it in the curry before freezing.
10
I haven’t had any trouble with the usual “nothing special” brands we get at Foodworks, IGA or W-worths
10
Vaccine-induced food allergies: turning [even organic and healthy] food into poison
I wanted to share these comments and very useful references provided by a reader. This explains the gelatin allergy and peanut allergy – they did not exist before these proteins were added to vaccines. Since late 80’s these and many other allergies to common food exploded.
According to Table 6 (p. 191), nearly half the children who received the gelatin-containing DTAP as babies had allergic reactions to gelatin (54 out of 126). This allergic response was undetected in the control group (0 out of 29).
..vaccination dramatically increases the risk of gastrointestinal disorders and allergies to common proteins in the environment. Vaccines turn common food into poison due to the anaphylaxis/allergy/autoimmunity that they induce in an unpredictable % of the population. The more shots one received, the higher the chances of developing these reactions to yet another protein.
Once a person is anaphylactized to food, it does not matter whether that food is organic, sustainably farmed or not. That food is permanently poisonous to that person. If it’s not immediately recognized, as most food allergies are not immediately identifiable, the gastrointestinal system and the microbiome get damaged or even destroyed. Damaged microbiome leads to a host of chronic diseases such as metabolic and autoimmune conditions, cancer and neurodegenerative conditions.
https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/vaccine-induced-food-allergies-turning
Fortunately I’m not allergic to peanuts as I love my peanut butter, just like Bear Grylls.
51
Tip for the day
When taking medications, painkillers etc, if you’re standing up or sitting it will take 20-45 minutes to be absorbed, if you lie on your left side it can take up to 90 minutes, but if you lie on your right side, under 20 minutes.
Acfually there are even faster ways but I’m not saying what. 😎
76
Awww…3 reddies for a helpful post.
Lucky I don’t care. 😆
44
Acfually(sic) there are even faster ways
…but please wash your hands afterwards.
30
FWIW – the message is getting through!
https://instapundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/epa_climate_change_poll_09-23_2024-600×361.jpg
10
Earlier this month news of the King Island dairy operation closing mid next year and putting their 58 employees out of work not to mention impacting local farmers was announced.
Book end announcement today that South Australia’s Beston Global Food Company producer of the Edwards Crossing and Mable’s cheese brands sold through Coles and Woollies has gone into administration and some 159 jobs are on the line not to mention knock on effect for state’s dairy farmers. The company also sold whey and lactoferrin protein which supplement manufacturers (Chinese baby formula makers) use plus other milk and butter products. So a large producer and seller.
Article states: “Beston blamed its collapse on the high cost of energy and a dip in farmgate milk prices. It also said successive interest rate rises over the previous two years had increased the company debts.”
According to Page 14 of the 2023 Clean Energy annual report the “Renewable energy penetration by state as proportion of generation” had Tasmania at 99.1% (first place) and South Australia at 71.5% (second place).
Guess it’s a case of yes you can keep the lights on, just don’t expect to eat local dairy products.
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>… blamed its collapse on the high cost of energy and a dip in farmgate milk prices
They can’t just have a simple diesel generator, they have to have all the expensive and useless frilly bits on top: solar, wind, flywheel, battery. No wonder the energy costs are so expensive!
30
Earl
FWIW
“Mitloehner: Calls for society to recognise the importance of ag”
https://www.beefcentral.com/news/mitloehner-calls-for-society-to-recognise-the-importance-of-ag/
00
La Nina like conditions were dominant during the LIA.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-15/weather-modelling-tips-fourth-australia-la-nina-before-end-2024/104350050
11
FWIW
“If You Want an Investment Portfolio Full of Dog Stocks Try Filling it With Renewable and Green Punts”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/09/23/if-you-want-an-investment-portfolio-full-of-dog-stocks-try-filling-it-with-renewable-and-green-punts/
00
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-24/black-swan-bird-flu-outbreak-preparation-extinction-threat/104327598 – only if the gummit kills them all…
20
Council tax Bailiff referrals – above 50% of households in some London boroughs are referred to bailiffs for collection of council tax: https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/map-shows-thousands-bailiff-council-9574415
10
FWIW
“Gen Z is Quiet Quitting Higher Education for Trade Schools”
https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/09/gen-z-is-quiet-quitting-higher-education-for-trade-schools/
40
They will be better off for that.
Once you get on top of your trade it is quite rewarding and not too stressful. With a few years experience the barrier to entry into running your own business is usually low.
50
Yes,the idea that everyone must have a degree has been an absolute disaster for the West. Our degrees are now worthless after dropping the standards for DEI and all the rest.
40
The Real Reasons Why We Are Being Forced into EVs… It’s Already Falling Apart! (video)
00
Labor’s second attempt at a Censorship Bill undermines free speech (video)
40
Thanks Kim,
And many thanks to Senator Chandler for her well articulated and well presented speech to the parliament.
Liberal, Tasmania ( I had to look that up.)
5 mins.
Suggest it’s worth reposting on Saturday or Sunday .
Cheers
Dave B
20
Joel Gilbert: The Climate According To AI Al Gore (video)
00
Feel sorry for whoever is sat behind Canada – Trudeau has someone wearing a massive feathered head-dress with him. https://gadebate.un.org/en
00