JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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I attended the Nuclear for Australia national tour last night in Perth. Plenty of usefull info. My only beef was some hat tilting to unreliables. No welcome to country was a nice change. Next stop is Brisbane Jan 31st. Go to nuclearforaustralia.com for info.
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I found that also, PoP.
Attended the event in Gladstone Qld.
Was annoyed by the almost “welcome to country-like” hat-tilt to “renewables” – almost as if there’s an obligation to mention it favourably to gain permission to talk about nuclear generation.
It’s disappointing that this crept into an otherwise logical, practical and sensible presentation.
Sure, there’s a place for very small scale solar in particular (bore pumps, stand-alone domestic or rural, yachts, off-road and caravans etc) or wind (yachts), but large scale grid application is not it.
My father was an electrical engineer. He built a wind generator as an experiment, but only after he’d first built a diesel-powered 32 volt system to power the house. The wind generator stood idle for many years, I think it may have powered his ham radio at one time, but nothing more.
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Global Debt Reaches 326% of GDP –
“Total global debt has peaked to 326% of global GDP, adding an additional $12 trillion of debt in the last three quarters of 2024, according to the Institute of International Finance. This figure surpasses what we saw amid the pandemic and is expected to continually rise and governments continue to borrow with no intention of repayment.
The Big Bang of the sovereign debt crisis began in 2015.75, as indicated by the computers, around the introduction of negative rates and Quotative Easing, which shifted the risk from the free market to the central banks. The 2015.75 date was also 26 years from the first break in Marxism in 1989. The bottom of the ECM from 2015.75 to 2020.05 was also 31.4 years from the start of the fall of communism that culminated in the final stages of the collapse of socialism. I repeatedly warned that our models indicated the banks would become trapped by these policies and now we have a completely unsustainable situation.
If interest rates rise, their portfolios crash in value (price). Such an outcome would raise the question of will the private sector return to the government bond markets when they see there is a rising risk factor? Our model showed that this would not be the case. In other words, the Sovereign Debt Crisis has taken place and to prevent the PRICE crash, the central banks became the buyer to hold interest rates down and bond prices up. We have seen governments and institutions offload bonds and government debt since the Big Bang.”
More at the weblink below –
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/global-debt-reaches-326-of-gdp/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=RSS
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Serious question.
If Australia has $3 billion in debt owed to the US
The US has $2 billion in debt owed to Australia.
Can they negotiate a cancellation in each debt to balance it out so that Australia now only has $1 billion owed to the US?
I assume it would be harder between banks and nation states as nation states would rarely own bank based debt but surely banks and companies have debt amongst each other and a similar process could occur, cancelling down mutually owed debt.
Imaginary money should be as easy to remove as it is to make….
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That only works if the money is owed through a common point, (eg one central bank), or the parties are willing to exchange the risk portfolios of the other parties.
For example. A US based bank may lend money to an Oz company for a NG power plant. And an Oz bank may lend money into a software company in California. But could you ever imagine the banks talking about swapping the debt. No Oz bank will touch fossil fuels, not with labor in control anyway. And if a US company had to go off shore for a loan you can bet that they are high risk or too dodgy to deal with locally.
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I posted an article yesterday whereby Fire Chiefs in UK had expressed concern about EV’s
Hard on its heels is another EV explosion and the fire chiefs have weighed in again and that owners should be made aware of the dangers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14342235/electric-car-exploded-flames-family-traumatised.html
Which raises the interesting question as to at what point can cells become damaged enough to become problematic? Head on crashes are obvious but what about shunts in supermarket car parks or driving into another car when trying to get out of a tight parking place?
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Seems strange. Evidence of cause is to be determined. How was the fire put out so quickly? Prior EV fires are reported to be non-bomb like. This one went “boom”.
My theory: An ex-boyfriend or husband poured a container of gasoline into the interior and lit it. The ex is now in southern Spain.
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I thought the same about quick the fire was put out. It doesnt sound like a battery fire. BUT no sign of arson. Hmmmm.
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A story from Canada a couple of years ago was about a fisherman who drove his Tesla EV to his favourite fishing location driving along a dirt surface track to complete the journey. The EV bottomed out on a low section of the track, not too hard but noticeable.
After parking the driver heard a sizzling sound coming from the EV and quickly followed by an inferno than burnt the EV out completely.
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Who cares about the overpriced shopping trolley – did he catch any fish? 😃
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Apparently it was large and had three eyes, but it got away.
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A cell does not need to undergo physical damage from outside to become a thermal runaway candidate. Dendrite growth is more than capable of doing the deed and since dendrite growth is a function of aging, charge rate and discharge depth, how many Noddy cars are really just waiting for their moment in the sun?
https://www.msesupplies.com/blogs/news/source-of-detrimental-dendrite-growth-in-lithium-batteries-discovered
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Hurricanes and storms not becoming more frequent
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/paul-homewoods-review-explodes-the-hurricane-myth/
I frequently point out weather facts to those writing in my local newspaper few of whom know anything about our past climate.
All 3 of our local MP’s are in the local papers today to say they voted in favour of yet another mind bendingly stupid climate bill.
Fortunately it was defeated due to lack of debating time but clearly very many MP’s do not take the trouble to do any research.
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Tony, I too have a beef with people & officials yapping the oft-repeated L.I.E. storms are worse and more frequent because CO2 has gone from 0.03 to 0.04%.
Case in point, reading an Australian surfing tracksmedia.com.au article yesterday, The LA Climate Fires, the author was pulling as many bogus majick white rabbits out of his hat as he possibly could. Apart from the standard ”consp!racy theories are everywhere … misinformation is rife … 2024 hottest year on record” self-defeating own-goal nonsense claims, his summation was:
“As global temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent … we must call out the hypocrisy of fossil fuel giants who deny their role in the climate crisis”. Not only [sic] but sick!
The whole surfing industry wouldn’t exist without the benefits hydrocarbons have delivered to modern men & women, and searching the website for contact details to submit a friendly suggestion or two, I discovered their Acknowledgment of Country statement… oh dear, they’re a lost cause.
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Greg,
Heatwaves stories in Australia cop severe criticism in an article of mine published by WUWT yesterday. I have offered the article to Jo. Geoff S
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Geoff, your article certainly opened up a can of worms (calling climate believers COWs isn’t classified as 8-speech yet is it?) as well as commenters providing a vast array of observed & recorded graphs which I have saved for a rainy day – tomorrow by the looks of it.
Heatwaves just ain’t what they used to be!
Keep up the good work.
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I think the EU has gone along similar lines to OZ as regards online Hate crimes.
https://reclaimthenet.org/eu-digital-services-act-hate-speech-code-tech-giants
As I have said before I hate no one but may dislike, be concerned about or disagree, with people and ideas and ideologies. Hate nowadays seems to be very narrowly defined these days and greatly exaggerates the apparent new crime of merely speaking your mind.
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The authorities can’t define “hate speech” but are super quick to legislate against it. It’s similar to global warming and CO2. We can’t even say black is white without incurring derision these days. We must stop the stoppers in their tracks!
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Pathetic “fact check” on Farcebook about whales and windmills:
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A simple link from the number of whale deaths relative to the locations where percussive geological tests have been undertaken should provide a counter argument to the factcheck.
It’s a little like road kill. If you only look at the bodies then you’ll never see the cars as the problem but if you look WHERE the bodies are found, the evidence screams out the source loud and clear.
Ignorance is no reason to support off shore windmills. Besides, whales are/will be useful, especially for oil in the coming decades once they ban drilling.
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A Channel 7 (Australia) “news” report said that there’s a possibility of power blackouts because “demand for renewable energy is set to outweigh supply by more than 30% in some months“.
What an absurd statement.
Unbelievable.
There is no demand for “renewable energy”, only electricity. And the demand is for cheap electricity which we no longer have due to the market being dominated by expensive and unreliable “renewables” .
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1DVBx6umy6/
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Actually, I think the demand for ruinables should lead to the complete blackout of the ACT on a regular occurrence.
If they claim to be 100% ruinables, then they surely should go dark every windless night.
It’s time for blackouts in the ACT or stop the BS.
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FWIW
“The Cricket bat – a journey from the backyard to Test matches”
https://www.robertonfray.com/2025/01/31/the-cricket-bat-a-journey-from-the-backyard-to-test-matches/
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Fascinating!
Thank you!
Auto
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I had DEEPSEEK do a wind powered NEM costing based on the following:
Designing a battery-firmed wind farm to supply an average demand of 23 GW with a wind capacity factor of 16% (and accounting for low wind periods of 8% and 10% capacity factor for consecutive weeks) involves calculating the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The LCOE is the average cost per unit of energy generated over the lifetime of the project, including capital costs, operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, and battery replacement costs. Here’s the step-by-step breakdown:
There is a lot of detail so I will state the result of present value of $2,356tr and LCOE of $1286/MWh.
Then I asked for lignite fired USC:
To determine the total cost and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for lignite-fired ultra-supercritical (USC) steam power stations to meet an average demand of 23 GW and a peak demand of 35 GW over a 50-year life at a discount rate of 10%, we need to consider the following:
Again a lot of detail but the present value is $150.9bn and LCOE of $75.55/MWh.
Both analyses used a discount rate of 10% but the wind generator life was 25 years and battery life 15 years while the coal plant was 50 years. One of the notable differences is the 10% discount rate means the present value of fuel is relatively low. Apart from the replacement battery, all the wind generator and initial battery cost are up front.
The present value for the fuel is only $24bn. The present value of O&M for the coal generators is just $21.9bn. The present value for the O&M of the wind generators and batteries is $269bn.
This really highlights why productivity is dying in Australia. I have not even included the 10,000km of new power line and yet the present value of the wind generators/batteries O&M is higher than the total cost of all new USC lignite fired stations.
Australia’s economy is being hobbled by the wind/solar/battery fantasy.
The data for wind capacity factors was taken from Open NEM:
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?range=1y&interval=1w&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed
I took the low wind period from end of March to end of June to arrive at the 16% and consecutive low weeks of 8% and 10%. All based on 13.46GW installed. It arrives at 144GW of wind and 3,749GWh of battery.
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Soma may suggest that Snowy 2 will meet most of the storage.
The realistic storage of Snowy 2 is 200GWh based on this review:
https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=EXH-2536%2120191108T002841.497%20GMT
The battery size to firm the wind is 3749GWh so say another 18 Snowy 2s and job is done.
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I think the use of the word SOMA instead of some is very fitting.
It will take a good dose of Soma to make any of this work.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soma_(Brave_New_World)
Now tell us that it wasn’t a fault caused by sticky fingers or spellcheck.
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Thanks for this RickWill, this was quite interesting to read:(my bolding here)
It would seem we get ‘reasonable’ and non political answers from AI rather than from, umm, ‘motivated’ sources.
And here, note that this is for Lignite (brown coal) and in Germany, they have these Lignite USC plants, and in fact, one of the earlier ones at Neurath (operational since 2008 now) was a ‘test bed’ for the retrofitting of Hazelwood plant (now destroyed) as early as 2007, a full TEN YEARS before that plant was closed down.
So, here we are!
Not only were there (only waiting for a political tick of approval, because all the many years of planning and approvals were already completed in 2009) plans for two Black coal USC plants in NSW, there was also a plan for brown coal USC in Victoria.
Without ‘spineless’ politicians, these plants would have already been delivering power to the grids of both States, and been doing it for the last ten years now.
Tony.
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Johannes Leak Cartoon in Today’s The Australian sums up the Disdain Labor PM ALbanese & The Australian Labor Party have for Australians & how they treat them!
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That Albo certainly knows how to lisp through his teeth.
Spellcheck just changed the lisP to lisT. Obviously it doesn’t know Albo as well as us simple folk.
All heil our lisper-in-chief, or not, as the case may be.
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Cruisy new way to ride from Northern Beaches to Eastern Suburbs
There’s now a new way for commuters and day trippers to get from Manly Wharf to Double Bay and Watsons Bay – or the reverse – seven days a week, thanks to NRMA’s Fantasea Cruising.
The new Bay2Beach Express now connects Manly, Double Bay and Watsons Bay in a scenic and direct ride on the Harbour. It’s a great way to entice friends to our side of town without – GASP – crossing the bridge. Or head to somewhere new in the City’s east and enjoy the sparkling harbour views enroute.
While of course no match for the myriad delights of our magnificent Manly and surrounds, there’s much to love about Watsons Bay. It has a lot of history, some great beaches, spectacular views and delectable seafood – particularly at the legendary Doyle’s and the Watson’s Bay Hotel.
It’s a great way to entice friends to our side of town without – GASP – crossing the bridge. – actually it is crossing 2 Bridges – Mosmanites cringe at crossing Spit Bridge, though a number of young Mosman Mothers take advantage of easier parking at Clontarf Beach vs Balmoral Beach, when parking for free south of Sewage Tunnel or free on.main road outside Clontarf
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You can always tell who is likely to lose the coming election by those who quit first. Mr Jones, whose NSW seat of Whitlam takes in the Illawarra and Southern Highlands, said it had been an “enormous honour” to serve as a local MP and minister under Anthony Albanese, who he described as a friend of many decades. (Whitlam is held by a margin 8.3 per cent. by the Left Wing). Mr Jones’s resignation follows that of Indigenous Australians minister Linda Burney and Brendan O’Connor mid-last year, and NDIS minister Bill Shorten, who quit politics this month.
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I had what I thought was an uncontroversial message disappear yesterday. Who do we contact about such things?
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Potomac Mid Air UPDATE 1/30/25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3gD_lnBNu0&ab_channel=blancolirio
Excellent review of What happened with real time visuals
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