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Friday

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53 comments to Friday

  • #
    Skepticynic

    When grilled on the insanity of building solar installations and then blocking out the sun, the British Secretary of State fails to answer:

    Video 45 seconds
    https://files.catbox.moe/3qysg9.MP4

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    • #
      David Maddison

      The clueless is staggering.

      And the area of Once Great Britain as a percentage of the earth’s total surface is 0.05%.

      How many degrees is blocking out the sun over that country going to lower the temperature by?

      Even if they could convince other stupid countries to do this like Australia (1.51%) or Canada (1.96%), how much difference would it make? They certainly won’t convince other large area countries such as the USA, China, Russia or Brazil to block put the sun.

      The lunacy is unbelievable.

      And more importantly why would you want to do it in the first place?

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  • #
    Skepticynic

    Net zero
    https://i.imgur.com/BBZdbVJ.jpeg

    “Redeia, which owns Red Electrica, warned in February in its annual report that it faced a risk of “disconnections due to the high penetration of renewables without the technical capacities necessary for an adequate response in the face of disturbances”.
    Investment bank RBC said the economic cost of the blackout could range between 2.25 billion and 4.5 billion euros, blaming the Spanish government for being too complacent about infrastructure in a system dependent on solar power with little battery storage.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-power-generation-nearly-back-normal-after-monday-blackout-says-grid-2025-04-29/

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    • #
      Yarpos

      I like the wording in the link “nearly back to normal”

      Not so comforting when normal means teetering on the edge of a blackout. Still I suppose it was a rare atmospheric phenomena after all, I mean what’s the chance of having one of those again?

      I’m guessing the remaining real generators and interconnectors are getting a good workout at the moment.

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    • #
      Tony Tea

      Of course they warned them. They know how power systems work. (Nice bit of pre-emptive arse covering tho.)

      60

    • #
      OldOzzie

      After the Spain/Portugal Renewables Debacle, proceeded by South Australia & Broken Hill Renewables Debacle where even batteries did not work

      Restarting Electrical Network Challenges

      Restarting an electrical network from scratch, also known as a black start, involves significant challenges, particularly in bringing up baseload power sources like coal, gas, hydro, and nuclear plants to synchronize frequency.

      Here are the key issues:

      Coal Plants: Coal plants are typically designed for continuous operation and can take several days to start up from a complete shutdown. The process involves heating up the boiler, generating steam, and gradually increasing the turbine speed to match the grid frequency. This slow startup time can be a significant bottleneck during a black start.

      Gas Plants: Gas turbines can generally start up more quickly than coal plants, but they still require a careful and controlled process to ensure stability. Combined cycle gas plants, which are more efficient, can take longer to start up due to the additional complexity of the heat recovery steam generator.

      Hydro Plants: Hydroelectric plants are often the preferred choice for black starts due to their ability to start up quickly and provide immediate power. Additionally, hydro plants need to be carefully managed to avoid overloading the grid as it comes back online.

      Nuclear Plants: Nuclear plants are designed for continuous operation and have very long startup times, often measured in days. The process involves bringing the reactor to criticality, generating steam, and gradually increasing the turbine speed. Nuclear plants are generally not used for black starts due to their slow response time and the complexity of the startup process.

      The synchronization of frequency is crucial during a black start to ensure that the electrical system operates stably. Each power plant must be brought online in a controlled manner to match the grid frequency, which is typically 50 Hz.

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  • #
    Skepticynic

    Selling Out The Future Of Your Children:

    This is probably the most important articulation that best describes Australia and the current situation we find ourselves in. It describes our reality to the letter. If you don’t listen to this and realize the truth, then you too are UN- AUSTRALIAN. There’s only one person in Australia who embodies the true leadership described and that person is Senator Rennick. Nobody and I mean, nobody has Australia’s back like this man and the party he has formed.

    From comments:
    >”Low grade spiv” @AlboMP
    Perfect description of the fool!

    >There’s a reason (Albo’s flatmate) Dan Andrews, while Premier of Victoria, went to China with no Australian media & ’til this day no one knows what he did there 👀

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    • #
      Ronin

      I love the way Gerard harasses them in senate question time.

      100

      • #
        Broadie

        Rennick does not harass, he simply and politely asks what are the obvious questions. He receives either deflecting or unintelligible answers from the people supposedly at the coal face of the subject or the question is ‘taken on notice’.
        Gerrard should simply be voted back in so the ‘Swamp’ can reply to those ‘questions on notice’. The Liberal National Party is likely to have shifted him to an unwinnable position on their senate ticket as they to do not want the ‘Swamp’ to answer those questions.
        Why? because they are paid hacks and owned by the ‘swamp’. As Jo notes regarding the election .

        Every vote in the Australian election is worth $3.38 as a first preference to any party winning more than 4% of the vote.

        That’s a lot of tax payer maoney invested in maintaining the status quo! Why pay for another layer of Autocracy making stupid decisions that destroy our country, our way of life and submitt our children to lives in servitude? Our elected representatives are supposed to protect us from a powerful bureaucracy not protect the bureaucrats from scrutiny.

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  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    Moorcroft pottery in the UK is not a big employer, but it is an historic and iconic name. Another victim of net zero.

    “Industry commentators have blamed an increase in energy costs.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwynq8jgg3lo.amp

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  • #
    Johnny Rotten

    This article by CHRIS UHLMANN:

    An extract/teaser – The Trouble in Spain/Portugal –

    Electricity flows through the grid at a constant frequency, which is 50 hertz in Australia and Spain. Think of it as a rhythm; the steady beat of a metronome. Every generator and every appliance must stay in time. If a few fall out of sync, the system usually recovers. But if too many do, it’s like a drummer losing tempo in a tightly conducted orchestra. The harmony collapses – and so does the system.

    Electricity systems were built around machines that spin big wheels – coal, nuclear, hydro, gas – whose speed sets the frequency of the grid. It is an engineering marvel with a century of experience behind it. These are called synchronous generators. The big wheels inside them, spinning at 3000 revolutions per minute, don’t just produce power. They also help stabilise the system. They keep the rhythm steady and absorb shocks when something goes wrong.

    Wind and solar work differently. They generate only when the sun shines or the wind blows, regardless of when power is actually needed. That means supply often peaks when demand doesn’t and can vanish when demand surges. And because they don’t spin large wheels, they can’t directly support the grid’s frequency. Their electricity has to be converted, through inverters, to stay in time with the grid.

    But when trouble hits, these inverter-based generators can’t offer the same stabilising force. They can’t ride through shocks.

    But the tale to date eerily echoes a warning made in a 2021 engin­eering paper by University of Queensland researchers Nicholas Maurer, Stephen Wilson and Archie Chapman. They found that when power systems rely heavily on inverter-based generators like wind and solar – especially above 70 per cent of total supply – the grid becomes dangerously vulnerable to sudden disturbances. Their simulations, using Australia’s National Electricity Market as a model, showed that the system could survive a single failure. But if a second shock followed too quickly, there wasn’t enough time to recover, and the system would cascade into collapse.

    Sound familiar?

    We’ve seen this before – on September 28, 2016 – when South Australia suffered a statewide blackout. As Matthew Warren later wrote for the Australian Energy Council: “The more material issue was the insufficient levels of inertia in the system to slow down frequency changes and enable load shedding … in other words, the SA grid was configured in a way which made it more fragile.”

    SA was the canary in the coalmine. Spain is the mine. And Australia is digging a very large hole for itself. The federal government wants 82 per cent of electricity to be generated by weather-dependent sources by 2030. And the more we have, the more fragile the grid will become.

    Spain’s blackout is all the more alarming because, unlike Australia, it still has a solid base of reliable power. About 20 per cent of its electricity comes from nuclear and up to 15 per cent from hydro, depending on rainfall. These sources provide steady, inertia-rich generation that helps stabilise the grid during shocks. We are building a more fragile version of the Spanish system: more solar, more wind, less firming, and no link to a stronger grid.

    The purpose of an electricity system is to deliver affordable, reliable power. Politics

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    • #

      Chris Uhlmann here mentions the heavy weight of ‘those great spinning wheels’, and why that was so important.

      (and this might be a little boring)

      Back when I started all this I do, the hardest thing to explain was how big those huge generators were and why they needed to be so ….. big, and then just what was required to actually make that huge weight rotate at fifty times a second.

      It’s basically Electrical Theory, and it all comes back to the rotor inside the generator.

      In 2010, I posted about how it was an impossibility for Solar Thermal plants to ‘run’ huge generators like these. That Post is at this link, and right at the top I explain some of that (boring old) Theory.

      As I said above, it all comes down to the weight of that rotor and some are around 200 Tons, with some even larger, and the technology is now better, so that weight has come down.

      With all Australian Units online, (those big coal fired power plants) and there are only 36 of them, this enormous rotating weight provides that stability.

      When a Unit ‘spins up’ after maintenance, it doesn’t come back online until its rotational speed is synchronised with the other Units at that same plant, and those other already rotating Units at that plant are already synchronised to EVERY other Unit on the grid.

      Those 36 Monster Units provide that absolute stability for frequency control, all spinning in perfect synchronisation, and here, note that every single thing you plug into that proverbial ‘hole in the wall’ at home is specifically designed to operate at exactly 50 Hertz, that fifty times a second rotational speed of the generators themselves.

      Pi55y little wind turbines (now around 2500 of them here in Oz) and solar inverters in their millions CANNOT replace that. And now, try to even begin to think about trying to synchronise all of them, especially those home solar inverters.

      The perfect ‘humming along’ of just those 36 Units IS that reference.

      Tony.

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      • #
        OldOzzie

        TonyfromOz

        I remember working away with large electrical motors during Electrical Engineering Year 2 at Sydney University Electrical Engineering Department, as part of Civil/Chemical Engineering Degree

        Then going, as part of the course, to see Hydro Electric Turbines & NSW Coal Fired Plants Steam Turbines

        Big & Impressive

        60

        • #

          Oh, thank you, thank you, thank you, OldOzzie.

          What you said here about hydro plants made me go and look at an old hobby horse of mine, the Motuo Hydro plan by the Chinese in Tibet.

          Back in 2014, I found an obscure reference to it, and did some preliminary research, and then made some Posts about it and then in 2024, I revisited it, and worked up three more major Posts about it, again speculating on what it might look like.

          This Hydro plan was for a ….. wait for it ….. 60,000MW plant, and think about that. Australia’s total Nameplate from all fossil fuel plants, hydro plants, wind plants and solar plants (not rooftop solar) is around that same 60,000MW, so the same as what powers ALL of Australia, well, excepting WA, so just the whole of the AEMO coverage.

          All along, what I wrote was, well, basically, just speculation, even though founded in Electrical engineering.

          When I went and checked again this morning, I found this from barely eight weeks ago.

          China Authorizes a new Hydropower Project in Tibet

          True, it’s written from the standpoint of a ‘true believer’, but it’s now going ahead, and in the same area I speculated on. This article was written from the standpoint of a journalist, so she’s possibly thinking of this a ….. one humungous dam, which, in this area is absolutely impossible, and my Posts from 2024 explain what it would really look like.

          I’ll now be working up more about this.

          Eleven years ago, I found it, and the time hiatus was just to get all the infrastructure in place, an engineering feat on a humungous scale no less, as you’ll read at my Posts, where it would be, and how they would do it all.

          My posts on all of this are at this link.

          Tony.

          60

      • #
        Vladimir

        Never say never.
        Right now another Edison or Tesla might be quietly preparing for Year 12 exams when one of the questions prompts a bright spark in her head and – voila! an idea of universal, omnivorous, continent-wide, self- stabilising, self-repairing power grid is born.
        Covering the whole country with copper blanket has already proven to be not the best we came up with.
        Everyone is looking for massive AI justification – here is one really needed.

        10

      • #
        Earl

        Great info, Thank you. I’m guessing a similar sort of synchronisation issue is reflected in the EV battery. I read how it was (technically) possible to replace a cell of an EV battery (the Nissan Leaf was given as one example) but the replacement cell had to have the same generating capacity/level of the others in the battery otherwise there would be issues. Hence the expensive, waste pollution generating but logical action of replacing the whole battery. Apparently, the cell option has become impossible with modern EVs given the level of gluing and welding – bit like mobile phones where the battery is not separate to the case so throw it all away.

        That makes 2 “obvious” manifestations of the synchronisation problem (EVs and power grid) that researchers/developers should have already known let alone “discovered”.

        There should be an annual global award competition set up to recognise and highlight the “best” disasters developed by man. The awards night would kill 2 birds with one stone in so far as getting around non-reporting by msm and the eCommissar’s dismiss information program. How about the Covid Lifetime Awards with the ultimate prize category being the best “Safe and Effective” contribution/invention. Sub-awards for most expensive, longest time from contract to commission (Snowy II would clean up) and one for quickest collapse after commission would each have plenty of contenders.

        10

        • #
          Vladimir

          Portugal/Spain “extreme weather event” to start with.
          About second place, it is very tempting to say Trumps’s First 100 days.., please note that I do not say it…

          10

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    DMI have decided Arctic sea ice volume has peaked. Whereas sea area with at least 15% ice coverage looks comparable to recent years, the volume indicates a substantial drop in the actual amount of sea ice.

    https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/plots/CICE_curve_49_EN.png

    30

  • #
    Philc

    Dutch Scientists Expose Fake Data on Death Rates Among Covid-Vaxxed

    https://slaynews.com/news/dutch-scientists-expose-fake-data-death-rates-among-covid-vaxxed/

    I wonder if a couple of Australian Scientist would have the guts to do the same study here?

    90

  • #
    another ian

    FWIW – making waves

    “Yesterday, Secretary Kennedy and HHS made what could be the simplest but most impactful announcement in American history (if you count in total life-years-saved). From now on, with limited exceptions (like the annual flu shot), the FDA will require all vaccines —including those already on the schedule— to be tested against an inert placebo, like pure saline.”

    More at

    https://open.substack.com/pub/coffeeandcovid/p/anomalous-thursday-may-1-2025-c-and?

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    • #
      another ian

      And

      “RFK Jr. Shatters The Measles Narrative With One Brilliant Point”

      https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rfk-jr-shatters-measles-narrative-one-brilliant-point

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      • #
        Earl

        “Survival of the fittest” – Herbert Spencer 1864 (after reading Darwin theories).

        What if measles was nature’s last test (and/or tinkering) of the babies auto immune system?
        Interesting how it used to be a childhood disease once caught never repeated and if there was an outbreak mothers were happy for their child to catch it too.

        Then along came the vaccination and measles is now a concern amongst adults. The Australian narrative is that those born between 1968-1982 who may have received only 1 dose of the MMR vaccine are particularly vulnerable. The current median age for measles now being 26 years with 54 cases recorded by the end of March 2025. [AI information hence no links].

        Interesting 2007 results paper on a study of susceptibility among young adults in Victoria (aka the lockdown state) which back then stated “…it was recognised that, by the end of the twentieth century in Australia, measles had become a disease mostly affecting young adults”.

        Measles appears to be making a comeback in the west (in Africa, Asia and developing countries it has never gone away) and given Victoria’s measles re-emergence history (2007 paper), then sift in “other” health events what kind of mess is bubbling away down there. Good thing Victoria does not have an Arican gang problem – Daniel Andrews.

        00

  • #
    David Maddison

    Reminder about Lake Goldsmith Steam Rally this weekend.

    3rd & 4th of May, 2025.

    About two hours drive from Melbournistan.

    https://www.lakegoldsmithsteamrally.org.au/

    With over 65 display sheds featuring steam and oil powered engines, saw mills, earthmoving equipment, motorcycles, trucks, tractors and more, and plenty of on-site catering, it’s a great day out for the whole family.

    65 Display Sheds
    Steam & Oil Engines
    Steam Powered Shovels & Saw Mill
    Displays of Earthmoving, Cars, Motorcycles, Tractors & Trucks
    Radio Controlled Model Boats
    Blacksmithing
    Threshing
    Boilerhouse Tours
    Grand Parade Daily
    Kids Activities
    On-site Catering

    40

  • #
  • #
    Scott

    Morning all,

    I havent watched yet sorry been very busy however this is Topher Field interviewing David Burton aka Inigo Jones.

    a bit on the floods that are coming.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybtkBz2TAMM

    30

    • #
      Ross

      Watched it and similar to other long range forecasters using historical records, sunspot activity, planetary influence, weather cycles and a dart board. Their predictions are just as good as the BOM can dish up. This bloke predicted the March floods in Outback Qld a long time ago. So, his record is good. Thinks Australia will get “ wet” years between now and 2029. Also says, whatever you do, don’t reside in a floodplain because our more recent floods ( decades time scale) do not even compare to past floods ( centuries time scale).

      00

  • #
    another ian

    FWIW – more covid scene

    “Tulsi Gabbard Reveals The Reason Anthony Fauci Sought a Preemptive Pardon from Joe Biden – Wicked Doctor Could Now Face Federal Perjury Charges (VIDEO)”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/05/tulsi-gabbard-reveals-reason-anthony-fauci-sought-preemptive/

    70

  • #
    another ian

    FWIW – education

    “Children’s reading and writing develop better when they are trained in handwriting, study finds”

    https://phys.org/news/2025-04-children.html

    40

  • #
    another ian

    FWIW

    “I strongly recommend you open and read Brett Trembly’s important, terrifying thread on TikTok.”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2025/05/i-strongly-recommend-you-open-and-read-brett-tremblys-important-terrifying-thread-on-tiktok.html

    00

    • #
      David Maddison

      I refuse to install it and many Government agencies have banned it on work devices.

      It harvests an incredible amount of personal data and is much worse than Farcebook and Goolag, etc., as bad as they are.

      50

  • #
    David Maddison

    I didn’t know this about people from Brazil.

    (COPIED from Quora Digest.)

    Why do Brazilians shower so much?

    They shower some 3 to 4 times a day and brush teeth at least 3 times. personal hygiene is given lot of importance in Brazil. Most of them I have met are super clean and deep clean the house almost everyday. I have learnt how to be organised from my Brazilian friends.

    20

    • #
      Ross

      Grok says “Brazilians shower frequently, often multiple times a day, due to a mix of cultural and environmental factors. The tropical climate, with high heat and humidity, encourages daily showers to stay fresh and comfortable. Culturally, personal hygiene is a strong social norm, tied to notions of respectability and self-care, influenced by European and Indigenous traditions. Public health campaigns in the early 20th century also promoted frequent bathing to combat disease, embedding the habit. Plus, access to water and a love for cleanliness make showering a routine part of life, often seen as a moment of relaxation”

      20

      • #
        John Connor II

        I was invited to India for Mukesh Ambani’s daughter’s wedding years ago but I declined.
        My friend who went said he was showering 6 times a day because of the oppressive heat and humidity.
        Precisely why I didn’t go!
        A dry heat is one thing insufferable humidity another.

        30

        • #
          KP

          “A dry heat is one thing insufferable humidity another.”

          It makes me wonder why people want to live on the East coast of Aussie, and how they will fare when the grid breaks. The same with the temperature not falling at sunset, so the night is as hot & humid as the day.

          10

  • #
    another ian

    FWIW

    Not the way it is usually described

    “Victims of Communism Day”

    https://accordingtohoyt.com/2025/05/01/victims-of-communism-day/

    20

  • #
  • #
    Greg in NZ

    https://spaceweather.com/ (home page):

    • Spain’s ruinable collapse was not the sun’s fault
    • CCCP’s 1972 Kosmos 482 is due to crash May 10, having failed to exit Earth’s influence to land on Venus 53 years ago
    • Recent red spheres seen in the sky are leftovers from SpaceX launches, H2O & CO2 mixing with oxygen ions, O+, creating photons with the same wavelength as red auroras [apparently]
    • No coronal holes on the sun yet its swirling patterns are a work of art – thankfully out of reach of ill-mannered spoiled brats spraying tomato soup

    Apart from that the universe is fine! Oh, apart from Canberra boiling on 1 degree above freezing this morning yet still they shout ‘the house is on fire’. All the best for tomorrow [sorry, poor joke].

    30

  • #
    John Connor II

    Bye bye Canada

    “Western society is morally rotten, and it has been corrupted by capitalism.
    This requires rigid controls of personal freedoms, industry and corporate funding. This is not a promise to make the lives of ordinary people better but temporarily worse. This will be a world of severely constrained choice, less flying, less meat, more inconvenience and temporarily more poverty. Assets will be stranded, Gasoline cars will be unsellable and inefficient properties will be un-rentable”

    ~Mark Carney, in his book,
    “Values: Building a better world for all”

    Better stock up on Maple syrup.

    50

  • #
    Tides of Mudgee

    Jordan Petersen’s take on Canada under Carney. Not good. 12 mins. ToM

    20

  • #
    OldOzzie

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wire/

    In yet one more way to bypass the rapidly and increasingly irrelevant mainstream media, the White House has announced the launch of what they are describing as a “Drudge-style” website that will promote pro-Trump stories and give accurate information on what is happening throughout the administration.

    The new site is called “White House Wire.” One White House official summed up its purpose this way:

    “To give pro-Trump influencers a central hub to disseminate Trump-favorable coverage. It’s a place for supporters of the president’s agenda to get the real news all in one place in a shareable and readable format. The website will be a one-stop shop for news and is part of the Trump administration’s effort to provide transparency and institute policies that put America first.”

    The site links to a variety of different media outlets. A sampling of headlines and links from the site on Tuesday, April 29, included “THE MOST SUCCESSFUL FIRST 100 DAYS IN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORY,” and linked to a Fox News story.

    Another read, “Border shutdown tops list of Trump’s successes at 100 days,” and linked to a story in the Washington Times.

    There was also a link to an Op-Ed at Newsweek written by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) entitled, “The President’s First 100 Days Is a Return to American Greatness,” and a link to Trump’s interview with ABC News.

    A ticker at the top of the site page read, “24/7 FORTY-SEVEN.”

    00

  • #
    OldOzzie

    U.S. Army Plans Massive Increase in Its Use of Drones

    HOHENFELS, Germany—The U.S. Army is embarking on its largest overhaul since the end of the Cold War, with plans to equip each of its combat divisions with around 1,000 drones and to shed outmoded weapons and other equipment.

    The plan, the product of more than a year of experimentation at this huge training range in Bavaria and other U.S. bases, draws heavily on lessons from the war in Ukraine, where small unmanned aircraft used in large numbers have transformed the battlefield.

    The Army’s 10 active-duty divisions would shift heavily into unmanned aircraft if the plan is carried out, using them for surveillance, to move supplies and to carry out attacks.

    To glean the lessons from Ukraine’s war against Russia, U.S. officers have debriefed its military personnel and consulted contractors who have worked with the Kyiv’s military about their innovative use of drones.

    “We’ve got to learn how to use drones, how to fight with them, how to scale them, produce them, and employ them in our fights so we can see beyond line of sight,” said Col. Donald Neal, the commander of the U.S. 2nd Cavalry Regiment. “We’ve always had drones since I’ve been in the Army, but it has been very few.”

    00

    • #
      OldOzzie

      Another Shocker: WSJ Reveals Russia Arming Massive New Rear Reserve Force

      You see, more and more we hear Ukrainian officials and military experts themselves echo what the pro-UA OSINT community has been warbling for a while now: that Ukraine is shifting almost entirely to a drone-centric defense strategy.

      A recent claimed Ukrainian POW statement highlights this:

      Starshe Edda: Recently, an AFU soldier who was captured on the Krasnoyaruzhsk direction said:

      You are receiving 2 Kamaz [trucks] of soldiers, while we are receiving 2 Kamaz [trucks] of drones.

      Of course, his phrase is somewhat exaggerated, but in general it makes sense.

      The era of drones has introduced such a thing in military tactics, which led to the fact that in defense, that in the offensive, the presence of manpower minimized.

      A company stronghold is defended by a squad, at most a platoon.

      Drones relentlessly attack defensive lines and in fact they (engineering structures) have lost very significantly in the quality of their original intent.

      Now the basis is not powerful ramparts and slabs, but maximum camouflage, even at the expense of protective functions.

      The soldier often sits in a simple burrow, without heating, in order to maximize camouflage.

      Once the location of a shelter with a live force inside has been compromised, it will be sprayed with a variety of drones, from kamikazes to [VOG grenade] drops.

      As such, in this type of shifting tactical environment, Russian commanders have begun favoring small, fast, expendable civilian vehicles.

      Certainly vehicular shortages do play a part to an extent—but it’s not the whole story.

      00

  • #
    OldOzzie

    Dmitry Trenin: Here’s why Trump’s foreign policy is calculated, not chaotic

    America’s new realism means peace with Russia and focus on China

    By Dmitry Trenin, a research professor at the Higher School of Economics and a lead research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. He is also a member of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).

    The first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second presidency have sparked a wave of commentary portraying him as a revolutionary.

    Indeed, the speed, pressure, and determination with which he has acted are striking. But this view is superficial. Trump is not dismantling the foundations of the American state or society. On the contrary, he seeks to restore the pre-globalist republic that the liberal elite long ago diverted onto a utopian internationalist path. In this sense, Trump is not a revolutionary, but a counterrevolutionary – an ideological revisionist determined to reverse the excesses of the liberal era.

    At home, Trump benefits from Republican majorities in both houses of Congress. Legal challenges to his policies – particularly on downsizing government and deporting illegal immigrants – have so far made little progress. Accustomed to media attacks, Trump continues to hit back hard. The recent story alleging that top officials debated strikes on Yemen over Signal has not gained political traction. If anything, it reinforces Trump’s image as a president who acts decisively and without fear of scandal.

    Trump’s economic course is clear: re-industrialization, tariff protectionism, and investment in cutting-edge technologies. He is reversing decades of globalist integration, pressing allies to pool financial and technological resources with the US to rebuild its industrial base. Tactically, Trump applies pressure early, then offers retreats and compromises to lure competitors into negotiations favorable to America. This approach has been effective, particularly with Washington’s allies. Even with China, Trump is betting that Beijing’s reliance on the US market, and America’s influence over EU and Japanese trade policy, will yield strategic concessions.

    In geopolitics, Trump embraces a realist doctrine grounded in great-power competition. He has defined his global priorities: secure North America as a geopolitical fortress from Greenland to Panama; redirect US and allied power toward containing China; make peace with Russia; and consolidate influence in the Middle East by supporting Israel, partnering with Gulf monarchies, and confronting Iran.

    00

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