What the Nanny-State Goddess Giveth…
The intermittent power of wind towers plays havoc with electricity grids. Power black outs in India are so bad, they cut off the supply to 600 million or so people for two days last year. To make the grid more stable, an official somewhere decided it would help to have at least one day’s warning of how much electricity will flow from those towers. (Why not two days I say?)
“A directive took effect this week ordering wind farms with a capacity of 10 megawatts or more to forecast their generation in 15-minute blocks for the following day. “
To put some perspective on this, here is what 7000 wind turbines across Northern Europe (between the North sea, the Baltic Sea and the Austrian-Swiss border) produced in 2004. You can admire the stable predictable output that comes from averaging so many turbines over such a large area. Right?
Percentage of peak grid power supplied by 7000 wind turbines in Northern Europe in 2004
Sources: German Eon Netz (E.ON) Wind Report 2005, Windenergy and WiseEnergy.org (Wind Energy Facts and Fiction: A Half Truth is a Whole Lie p 7)
[Bloomberg] Wind Forecast Order Jeopardizes Industry, Tata Power Says
By Natalie Obiko Pearson – Jul 16, 2013 2:49 AM ET
India’s move to stabilize its power grid by asking wind farms to accurately predict their output a day in advance or face fines will deepen the slowdown in Asia’s second-biggest wind market, Tata Power Co. (TPWR) said.
A directive took effect this week ordering wind farms with a capacity of 10 megawatts or more to forecast their generation in 15-minute blocks for the following day. Missing estimates by more than 30 percent will incur penalties. “Forecasting at 15-minute intervals is very challenging,” and could cost a 100-megawatt farm an estimated 250 million rupees ($4.2 million) a year, Tata Power said in an e-mailed response to questions. “Developers will see this as a further handicap” and penalties will “jeopardize” the industry’s growth, the nation’s second-biggest developer said.
Someone in power in India does not like wind turbines.
h/t John Droz (graph) and Willie (news)
What a good idea. However will it be copied in Oz? In fairness predicting what the output will be is a bit difficult but perhaps might bring home to some the point that wind turbines have significant problems. Probably not to politicians, especially the Greens
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Ian
You’re wrong, it is not a good idea, it is a truly brilliant idea.
One day in the not too distant future, when we are looking for legal ways of getting rid of these ugly, unreliable, subsidy gouging, relics of the Carbon Inquisition Era. This strategy will provide an ideal means of closing them down – they have to guarantee the amount of energy their wind farms are going to produce 24, or 48, hours in advance, every 15 minutes or face huge fines.
This strategy would be highly popular with the general public who hates these eyesores and having to pay for the expensive, erratic electricity they produce.
Bottom line: if nuclear, gas and coal fired power stations are required to guarantee their electricity output, why shouldn’t wind farms do the same.
This post made my day.
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That’s exactly what Paul said in his commentary about India’s brilliant idea. If it can be used there, it can be adopted everywhere else.
Really great opinion and analysis of this story:
http://quixoteslaststand.com/2013/07/17/paul-kuster-could-this-revolutionary-wind-energy-policy-from-india-work-here-in-ontario/
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Can’t predict the wind? What a bunch of slackards and criminals!
No more excuses! Either they shape up or they get gunned down, like Stalin used to do with excuse makers
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Yes, if you live by the gun of the government you should also die by the gun of the government. After all, the important thing is that the government sets the rules and everyone else MUST obey. The government does not need to say how you meet the rules. After all, you are a free person so you get to choose how you do it. That what you are required to do is impossible to do is an irrelevant excuse. The government demands so you must deliver or suffer the consequences established by the government.
Ultimately, the government is based upon the principle it can do anything and make anything happen if the government puts enough boots on enough necks, enough knives to enough throats, enough guns to enough heads, enough whips to enough backs, and fills enough gulags with enough people who do not obey. That this has never worked, doesn’t work, and can’t work is irrelevant. The problem, according to the government’s way of thinking, was that it was not done enough to make it work. The gang now in control will make sure they will do enough to make it work even if they have to destroy every living thing and consume all existing wealth to make it so. After all, it’s for the children.
The bottom line is the gang in control doesn’t want things to work. On the contrary they want to use the excuse that it doesn’t work to do more of the same until they destroy anything and every thing that works. To them, that it is destroyed is a signal that their action IS working. They wish to destroy the good BECAUSE it is good.
This is the fruit of the sacred system of *democracy*. A system of government in which might makes right and the whim of the majority justifies any violation of individual rights. What is not kept in focus is the individual is the smallest minority and everyone else is the largest majority. The individual always loses eventually and is consumed by the majority. After all, who is the individual to say that the majority is wrong? Democracy is government by lynch mob! It is a spectacle of a snake struggling to live by eating its own tail. It will not end well.
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In regard to governments and gulags, a friend says, “The market rules. You can defer the market if you have enough money or enough bullets. But eventually you run out of money, or bullets, or the will to spend them. Then, the market rules.”
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All they have to do is predict one element of weather for 1 day ahead and they can’t … but they can predict the “effect” of minuscule concentrations of CO2 on climate decades and centuries ahead, to hundredths of a degree C ?
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Vestas is laughing all the way to the bank.
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Actually, Vestas is a bit under the pump, and had to lay off 1200 people this week. (Damn, I forget where I saw that)
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I know, wind farms should have a computer model to predict the future, as computer models are so great and a reliable way of doing so.
/sarc off
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And the computer will be wind powered and consume 75% of the output of the wind farm to make these predictions for every 15 minutes.
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I agree. Models are reality, aren’t they? Surely there is a model for wind output the next day in India.
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If you’ve got the money, I’m sure I could come up with one fairly quickly. It might not work very well (at all), but I don’t think that is normally considered a problem these days.
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Got a problem predicting the wind?
Problem solved, call in the UK Met. Office – they’ll tell you what it was yesterday (and the day before) but tomorrow…..mmmmmmm not too sure that their £30m super computer can manage that one!
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DougS
How dare you besmirch the Met Office computer. It cost £200m not the £30m you claim.
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They blew this one. But it certainly puts a spin on things. Wait, was this a gust post?
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I never found this alleged propensity of wind to follow beans. Except for a few years after exceptionally large anti-biotic treatmnts. I guess I have extra friendly bugs in me belly.Glad some survived to re-colonise my innards. Thanks bugs, I like beans.
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What any excellent idea. It will penalise these nuisances off the grid in India. Pity it is too late to do the same in Australia.
It is about time that the inconveniences and costs associated with “renewable” energy were energies were charged to the cause. Spain is slashing the subsidies for wind power, following Germany, Holland, Denmark and Italy. Only the UK and Australia have yet to wake up to this waste of money.
The latest scam in the UK is standby diesel generators to provide power when the wind turbines aren’t working. Over $90,000 up front subsidy per MW and $660 per MWh supplied. Compare that with coal fired which supplies reliable power @ $40 per MWh. It is difficult to blame the public servants who dreamt up this scheme, as they are trying to counter the activities of mad politicians.
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There is a very simple solution to the problem. The windfarms have to build reserve generators to supply the power when the wind dosn’t blow, or they must cooperate with conventional power stations to deliver the missing power.
Why should it be the endusers problem that the wind is not stable?
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Yes, every really big wind farm could have a small Pressurised Water Reactor (like the ones on submarines). Then we could all pay through the rectum on a barbed-wire thread to subsidise these bastards (as we do now) but hav nuclar back up for days whn the weather is nice.
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The Russians have several PW Reactors mounted on barges – you tie them up at a wharf, plug them into the grid, and turn them on.
Well that is the theory. So far I don’t think they have found many customers.
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This is exactly what the UK is doing…. it’s totally insane. Where will the reduction in CO2 emissions come from?
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Yes Backslider –those backup generators in the UK are diesel generators
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Erarrgh…dirty nasty Diesel. Self deprecatingly humorous momenmts in xxx though!
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What is the CO2 and other real pollutant, output of a diesel generator compared to a well maintained COAL fired power station?
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Dirty smuts, but can be gentlemanly at timss, its the macho stuff makes him seem sooty, but very unobtrusive in Saving Private Ryan. Or was it Smits. In CSI wasnt he? Or some other cop show.
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Wow Ace…. can I have some of what you are having??
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What I am having is the long term after effects of teenage doses of dialogues written by Michael Moorcock.
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Worse than that. These are small scale back up diesel generators as used by essential services, hospitals, fire service, police, computer farms etc.
Not sure exactly how they plan to work it, but then I doubt they know anyway.
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Actually, last year on the news it was reported that virtually everyone in India has a diesel backup generator due to the totally reliable (sarc) power that exists in that country. When huge sections of the country lose power, as happens often, the sky is filled with diesel fumes. I’m actually surprised they want a forecast for wind, since the remainder of the grid seems just about as reliable as wind…..
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I am curious. At what point does “News” become “Olds”?
Also, not everybody has a generator. Some people steal power from their neighbours.
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http://www.quora.com/Journalism/When-does-news-become-olds-AKA-history
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Some even used to steal power from The Mob, they are known as The Untouchables!!!!
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Virtually everyone in India cannot afford such a luxury…..
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http://www.npr.org/2012/09/04/160523412/generators-power-through-indias-blackouts
http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/the-diesel-generator-indias-trusty-power-source/
http://inhabitat.com/350-million-people-in-india-lose-power-due-to-scorching-summer-weather/640px-india_-_kolkata_electricity_meters_-_3832/
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http://www.npr.org/2012/09/04/160523412/generators-power-through-indias-blackouts
http://inhabitat.com/350-million-people-in-india-lose-power-due-to-scorching-summer-weather/
http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/the-diesel-generator-indias-trusty-power-sourc
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Unfortunately, some people also thought that this was a serious solution to keep the windmills turning; no matter what.
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Thats IT!……they could use the “back up” generators to actually power the windmills and reverse the turbines into giant electric motors spinning the blades!!!!
Well, hardly any sooner did the preposterous imafge come to mind as a joke thyan I realised they might well atually do that, to maintain the illusion of wind power.
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And anybody who complains about the noise would be denounced as being anti-Gaia.
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There is an even simpler solution, and one that will dovetail nicely with the Indian bureaucratic mind …
Estimate zero output for tomorrow, and the next day, and the one after that.
My goodness, can you be blamed for overachieving?
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Nice one Jo! You brought a smile (risus sardonicus) to my face this morning when I saw the Wind Power feed in graph. Honestly, the fluctuant output of 7000 wind turbines in Northern Europe is only surpassed by flatulent emissions of the people who considered this a useful technology.
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Patchy will have to come up with some good spin on that one to keep the cash flow in tact.
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A contract to provide CONSISTENT, RELIABLE electricity should be mandatory for all major supplier to the grid.
Big fines should be the order of the day if not met.
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And the amount of the fines will be passed on to the consumer.
It will become just another grab for cash.
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How about this then.
Each energy supplier has to tell the energy wholesalers how much they will provide the next day.
If they don’t provide at least, say, 90% of it, they don’t get paid anything.
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Note my comment above. I remember last year: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444405804577560413178678898.html
The power grid they have now is mostly a failure. Why be worried about wind failing? Could just be for show, I guess.
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It would seem the World Bank know more than others with their announcement yesterday not to put up the capital for “under-developed” countries to buld coal fired power stations, asserting “the global temperature” is going to rise “catastrophically” by, wait for it, 2 to 4 degrees, so the “undeveloped nations” will have to rely instead on expensive, intermittent, dodgy wind and solar power energy. Sounds much like another version of “humaniatarian war”. Are we supposed to applaud?
It would seem the Bank (which bank?) in their
enlightenedwisdom have determined some nations have no need for a reliable base load power supply. Shades of “Vee haf vays of making you Green”! Heard it on their ABC, where else? A clear “it’s OK for us in the rest of the world in our air conditioned offices to enjoy the benefits of cheap coal energy to build OUR nation, but not you!”Another illustration of the Banksters and Green Mafia agenda. No doubt they will also dictate “smart meters” so the UN can regulate from afar the dodgy, intermittent power supply coming from the warm and fuzzy “Green Energy” on all of the hot calm nights and freezing cold winters. Pity though about all the smoke from the trees they have to burn instead to sustain life.
No doubt China, with it’s expertise in building coal powered energy stations will be keen to put up the capital instead, for a price of say a third of the country’s coal resources to keep feeding their own coal fired energy grid. The tyranny of Green politics, chock full of hypocrisy, collusion and double standards doesn’t take long to expose it’s dark side.
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And yet South Australia copes without a problem. Could it be something else I wonder?
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Maybe it is those coalfired power stations helping out.
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And India doesn’t do this?
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No. They have multiple power networks, for geographical and historical reasons. As I understand it, it is technically difficult to arrange for a consistent base load because of the network switching.
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Is this what “Nice one”s like?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAAKKB0BI-8
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India only recently started adding coal fired plants (2007) at a high rate. The coal industry was owned by the government and plant building had stagnated. Their coal-fired power was not really reliable.
India is still basically a third world country. They have poor roads, little power, and the government seems unable to cope with the mess. Thus, ridiculous proclamations such as the one this thread covers.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-07-09/news/40469408_1_coal-sector-india-ratings-independent-coal-regulator
My guess is South Australia does have this type of unreliable power and the coal-fired plants do indeed backup the wind, just as they do everywhere else (in addition to NG and hydro).
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NO … as my hundred year old Nan says, “full of piss and wind” as usual ?
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By buying COAL fired power from Victoria, at GREAT EXPENSE.
I would love Victoria to say.. “Sorry, none to spare today. Bad luck cookies” on a regular basis.
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Then SA may have to invest in some big diesel generators, and import some FOSSIL fuel, like the UK is doing.
That should help the SA electricity price go up even further.
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Nice One,
you lying f[self snip] a[self snip].
Last Summer, South Australia had THREE DAYS, spread over the three Month Summer period, when they had Peak Power Demand, and the wholesale power costs average spiked beyond $100/MWH for the Peak Demand Period (7AM to 10PM), you know, when people are actually out of bed going about their daily business. For that whole Summer Period (three Months) the Northern Power Plant (coal fired) was in operation with both generators running (500MW in all).
Northern Power Plant was directed to shut down at the end of Summer, because, after all South Australia has all that Wind Power (1200MW CAPACITY, but averaging only 360MW)
So, in May, they had 15 days where the wholesale cost spiked beyond $100/MWH (average $110) and June where the cost spiked beyond $100/MWH, (average $120/MWH)
Very quietly, South Australia directed Northern to come back on line and run up one of its units so South Australia would not suffer blackouts.
Why?
Because wind power failed, and failed and failed, consistently failed to deliver.
Most days their average delivery was lower than 20% of Capacity, and in fact some days lower than 5%, and on just one day in particular, June 3rd and into the 4th, nothing for almost 15 hours. So, almost 600 huge wind towers and between none and around 5 of them actually turning, not for a short time, but for 15 straight hours. For just that one day (the full 24 hours) wind barely managed 2% of South Australia’s total demand.
You may say I’m cherry picking just one day, but Judas Priest, that’s all it takes. What do you propose for days like that? Look at any day over May and June, and just see how how very little Wind did provide in South Australia. That’s a lot of days. What do you propose for all those days?
Three Months of Autumn/Winter and virtually no wind power whatsoever. Not enough to run the State anyway. To actually do that, smaller, CO2 emitting plants were forced to run overtime, not just for the usual (within design specifications) 4 or so hours a day, but for extended periods running into days and extended periods every second day or two days out of three. South Australia also had to rely heavily on the brown coal generators of Victoria to come to their aid via the Interchange as well not just on occasions, but for EVERY DAY.
Is South Australia’s Wind Power Cheap? Well, No
So, when I see fools and morons like you blithely saying what you have said above, have no fear mate, I’ll come in and call you out for the f[self snip] liar that you are. You believe any old crap that you are force fed by your string pulling puppet masters, but when you get shown facts, all you have is the Britney Spears response. (Hey, look over there!)
Tony.
POST SCRIPT: Oh, and South Australia, with its reliance so heavy on Wind Power has the most expensive wholesale power costs in Australia, and the most fragile as well.
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Oh, and Nice One, you clueless idiot, let me show you what Intermittence means, something your side just passes off as meaningless.
Let’s pick a day then shall we, say, a work day, say recently, say, umm, Monday 8th July 2013.
Here’s the link to the Wind Power Chart for that day.
Now, under that second chart there, untick all the boxes on the left, and the box indicating All. So now, all that is showing is those South Australian wind plants.
Now, scroll down to the third graph, and untick everything except S.A. so you see the total actual consumption for all S.A.
Now look at that second chart and notice how it just rolls along the bottom for most of the day, during what the AEMO refers to as Peak Demand (7AM till 10PM).
Note that small spike around 7AM, when actual consumption has already ramped up to around 1700MW in the State.
At 6AM there’s not much, so grid controllers phone up their next small (typically gas fired) plant on their list and tell them that their power is needed. That plant fires up, and because it takes around 30/35 minutes to start from cold until power delivery, then when the wind kicks back in, the controller phones them back and says, hey shut down now, the wind’s back on, only to get a call half an hour later saying the wind has dropped so start up again.
Well, no.
Once the plant starts, it’s online for a dedicated four hours minimum, because you can’t just turn it on and off, and on and off and on and off.
So, there is a huge cost spike on start up and then the cost eases off as the plant supplies its power, enough to actually cater for what the grid is demanding.
However, now the wind comes back on and starts to supply again.
All that wind power just sits there supplying nothing, because the grid is already covered.
But, (and isn’t there always a but) the grid (by legislation) is forced to pay for that wind power, even though it’s not being actually consumed.
So, the grid retailers have to pay for the added cost to spike up the new plant, the added run costs for that plant, and also the extra cost for wind power that is not being used at all.
On that chart, see how wind stumbles along the bottom, barely averaging around 15 to 20MW for 20 hours at a Capacity Factor of 1.6%, and supplying 1.1% of what the State is actually consuming. For that 20 hours on average, 10 out of around 600 wind towers were actually turning, and for some hours nearly zero of them actually turning.
Then around 8PM, as actual demand begins to ease, wind comes back in again.
Too late. All those extra costly plants have shut down for the night because their power is not needed any more.
So, again, the grid retailers have to pay for useless wind power when it’s not really needed.
I know the spike here at 7AM is a small one, but imagine if it was a larger spike.
That, you fool, is what Wind Power is.
Totally, and utterly useless.
Pick a day, any day, and look at exactly the same things.
Some days are reasonable. Most days are not, because of those spikes.
On and off, and on and off, and on and off.
Coal fired power and those Natural gas fired plants are on, and on, and on, and on, delivering their full power all the time.
Steady, reliable. Power for when it is actually required.
Nice One. Australia is full of fools like you who believe that wind power can actually replace traditional forms of power generation.
They can’t and they never will.
Will you accept that?
No, you won’t.
You’ll believe
what you want to believewhat you are TOLD to believe.When facts are presented to you like this, you can just flat out reject them, because after all …… “oh, he’s just a blogger, contributing comments to just another Blog”.
People like you make me so angry.
You think you’re so smug, when in actual fact you have no brain to really see facts, even when they put in front of you and explained.
Moron. Bugger off!
Tony.
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Well Said, Sir !! 🙂
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Thanks Tony.
Presumably the powers that be who made the decisions to install these wind towers knew all about this at the time?
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Tony you should do that more often.
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Whoooo! Great Rant, let’s have more of that from someone who actually knows what happens.
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Thanks Tony. Your doses of engineering reality are a breath of fresh air … almost enough to turn a wind turbine 🙂
Like you I find the profound ignorance beyond irritating. The sheeple are incredibly easily led by the renewables shysters, or they pretend to be.
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Tony, you really should be more open and straightforward with your feelings!!!
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And, Tony, there’s more.
Victoria is allowed to supply SA in part because Vic can get 400 MW from Tas when they need it. That is supposedly hydro power, whereas in fact in means the gas fired Tamar Valley power station makes up for the export to Victoria.
However, Hydro Tas has TVPS shut down recently to make room for their new bird blenders at Musselroe Bay. (The tax on air cost TVPS $10 million last year) In short, if SA requires juice from Vic, the shortfall can’t be made up through the Bass Link if there is no wind at Musselroe Bay. So SA’s problems are just about to get bigger. Particularly when Tas returns to drought.
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Rod,
yes, and even Victoria is in for a shock of its own soon.
IanI8888 has alluded to it a few times already.
All those Victorian brown coal fired power plants are old.
There’s virtually no maintenance going on at them, and even without the introduction of the ETS, there’s the very real probability that they too will be shutting down, and even in the near term.
There’s no replacement for plants of that capability of power delivery.
Gas is extremely problematic as a replacement because of actual availability of the gas itself.
When they close down, then getting power into Victoria, well, power of that scale and on a 24/7/365 basis is, well, truth be told, there is nothing.
When that happens, watch for the looks of shock on politicians faces as they squirm, and look for scapegoats, all the while blaming those profit seekers who drove the plants into the ground for the grubby money.
Hazelwood – 50 years old next year.
Enegy Brix – 47 years old.
Yallourn W – 40 years old.
Loy Yang – 30 years old.
There’s electrical power for Victoria right there. More than 90% of Victoria’s power and up to 10% of South Australia’s power. You can bet South Australia will be the first to go, if plants begin shutting down units.
Not one replacement plant for any of them has been proposed. I mean, what operator in his right mind would even bother to suggest a new large scale power plant of any type.
They talk brown coal, black coal or gas. It’s not worth even mentioning it.
And there’s no reason to even bother with maintenance if the current political and environmental situation has the mindset in vogue at the moment.
Just run them into the ground, and as they crash, turn them off ….. forever.
It was alluded to on Lateline last night at this link.
And hey, note the emotive images ….. of steam!
Tony.
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Tell ‘m like it is Tony.
I am waiting for the reply…..
…..crickets………………
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Tony, you are indeed a TREASURE but I think that you waste your precious time explaining things to NO … there’s no light ON in there.
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NO may not learn, but the rest of us do. It’s her loss.
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Maybe they forgot to switch the light on again after Earth Hour…
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One of those dim green bulbs. Hard to tell if they are on or off until they explode toxic mercury all over the place.
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Tony, Please help me here with some context. You complain about the wholesale market price of electricity going above $100/MWH. What is the price paid for wind? How do they compare?
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Sorry Tony, you got side tracked and didn’t address my point. Nova says the wind turbines are to blame for the power problems, yet South Australia doesn’t have the same problems. Must be something else.
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He doesn’t need to. AndyG55 at 14.2 has already given the answer to that question.
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Its only a matter of time until SA start having REAL electricity problems.
If Victoria have to close down a couple of the BROWN COAL generators for say maintenance, they will not necessarily have the extra to sell off to SA. Then SA will realise just was a mess they are in because of their stupid over-dependency on wind power.
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IIRC there is only one main power line across the border. A bushfire in the wrong place could also cause major issues, particularly on a calm day.
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Nah. He said they were buying coal. He did not demonstrate how wind power is causing blackouts.
Despite all your rants, you still haven’t addressed the original argument.
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Duh! The blackouts will occur when the wind is NOT blowing. That’s the same as being reliant only on wind power.
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Only if other sources of power are not available. That doesn’t seem to be the case in SA because as Tony cherry picked out some days where generation was low, yet SA continued to get power.
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Nice One
line 1 Comment 14.4 applies.
I know you can’t navigate your way around, but pick a day, any day, and do the task.
You’ll see what I mean.
Three days in the whole THREE Month period of Summer.
15 days in May.
12 days in June.
2 days so far in June.
The only reason there was a drop in June and a further drop in July is because a screaming and shit scared Government pleaded with Northern to run up their plant that this same Government ordered shut at the end of Summer.
Pick a day you fool, any bloody day, I don’t care, because whatever day you pick, I’ll shoot it full of holes.
South Australia has more than 1200 MW of Wind Power. There may be the odd day when it actually does supply, but the running three Month average is now around 250 to 280MW, averaged, in a State that requires ABSOLUTELY up to 1800MW every day.
On any day, that intermittency you laugh at is proof that wind cannot do what it says it can do.
Cherry picked SOME days.
[line 1 Comment 14.4 applies]
They continued to get power only because coal fired power, which CAN actually supply its power while ever it is turned on actually did just that. Supply power.
Not wind.
But CO2 emitting plants coal fired and gas fired.
God save me from idiots like you.
Now off you go, and see if YOU can CHERRY PICK a good day for me, perhaps a day when wind can supply all of its 1200MW for the full 24 hour period. Good luck with that.
Tony.
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Try to avoid windy days like when the wind does blow at up to 98-120 Kph because the power gets blacked out then too!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/severe-weather-causes-wide-blackouts-across-south-australia/25008
Does this leave no situation at all that does work well for wind?
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Yep, don’t forget windy days…. but it doesn’t need to get that windy Siliggy. They can only tolerate a moderate breeze… anything more and they put the brakes on.
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As well as S.A. how about looking at this example from Britain.
Click here.
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Ah, Nice One,
Slither!
That’s all you’ve got, mate.
Let’s see now.
How could Wind Power cause blackouts?
Hmm!
Let me see now.
How about introducing an ETS.
Now, go back to the day I highlighted in 14.4.1.
Same time, 7AM, just as the morning Peak starts to kick in and the fundament has fallen out of Wind Power, and then stayed there for the next 11 hours.
The grid controller does exactly the same thing. Gets on the blower to the small Gas Fired plant and says ….. “hey mate,
the arse has fallen out of Wind power, err, sorry, wind power has dropped off the grid, and we need your plant to run up.”Geez, I’m sorry mate, but that’ll blow our cap, and because wind has failed so often, we’re already at our limit.”
Grid controller goes to the next number on the list ….. same result, and the next and the next, all the same.
Grid controller gets on the blower to the Victorian Interchange says the same thing, pleading for those Victorian Brown Coal fired plants to ramp up supply into South Australia.
Similar answer. Sorry mate, we need all our Victorian power for Victoria because we’re on our limit too.
Playford is long gone, and Northern also has its limit as well, in fact right now even without the ETS, it’s shut down more than it is running.
Then all you have is the Wind. Supplying 1.1% of what South Australia actually NEEDS to stay open for business.
1.1%.
Now Nice One, you tell me what happens next.
If there’s 50MW of wind available (for nigh on 12 hours) and the State requires 1700MW, then no amount of having the Premier on the line to the grid controller screaming abuse will do any good.
THAT sound like blackouts to me.
And what was the cause of that blackout.
Wind power ….. the abject, total and utter failure to supply.
And what exacerbated that?
The all singing all dancing God’s bloody gift, the ETS.
Slither! That’s all you’ve got Nice One.
Tony.
281
Hey Nice One, do you reckon they will still be making electric Holdens in SA if Tony’s scenario eventuates?
60
You should be running for office Tony.
110
pattoh … NO reckons they’ve fond a solar panel that charges the batteries at night. True !
40
So what’s your point Nova?
05
Love your work Tony 🙂
Nice One How’s your rear after that huge pineapple? HA HA!
51
Nice One says here:
I seem to recall the last thing I mentioned in comment 14.4.
Hey, look over there. Isn’t that Britney Spears?
Tony.
40
Dr Jim Yong Kim (Physician) (Korean emigre to US, Healthcare professor) and New president of the World Bank (WB) espouses an ‘evidence based approach’, consistent with his practice as a physician and educator. He speaks of the WB embracing The UN Millennium Development Goals (UNMDG) http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/)
It seems there is some ‘resentment’, that his appointment is contentious, being in effect a US appointee pushed through by Obama. It also appears that he takes a position that ‘no economic growth’ is a legitimate goal.
UN-MDG GOAL 7:
ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
Target 7.A:
Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources
Forests are a safety net for the poor, but they continue to disappear at an alarming rate.
Of all developing regions, South America and Africa saw the largest net losses of forest areas between 2000 and 2010.
Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased by more than 46 per cent since 1990.
In the 25 years since the adoption of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, there has been a reduction of over 98 per cent in the consumption of ozone-depleting substances.
At Rio+20, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, world leaders approved an agreement entitled “The Future We Want,” and more than $513 billion was pledged towards sustainable development initiatives.
40
Eventually they may have enough nouse to realise that the use of coal and gas is the most sustainable option by far.
Not only does it allow countries to develop by providing consistent cheap electricity, it also greatly enhances the biosphere, allowing more food production.
Could be a while, because the brain-washing of the anti-CO2 bletheren has been quite effective, but once sanity and economic reality set in, the realisation may happen.
80
I suspect a highly desirable though unintended consequence of the fanciful aspiration of reducing planetary atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels “to continue the perfectly balanced climate period of the last 10,000 yrs which allowed mankind to flourish” will be the decline in resultant biomass to pre-CO2 enriched, pre-industrial levels. The ensuing human starvation is exactly what the eco-theocratic Green fools aspire to, juxtaposed nicely with the infinitesimal decline in temperature.
60
Every bit of energy that wind turbines produce means a bit less convectiopn on the planet. I wonder how they intend to reverse that loss. Obviously every small reduction in convection from each turbine adds up to a large global reduction. Wind turbines are causing global warming (more in the Northern hemisphere),while CO2 is not having much effect other than to spread the warmth horizontally thus causing less extreme weather.
60
Here is the link ABC and here for an article in Catallaxy referring to the World Bank’s intentions referred to in item 13 above.
As Samuel J in the Catallaxy article says:
“They should rip down the large lettering in the headquarters at Washington DC and replace it with
Our Dream: A World Full of Poverty
The World Bank – bringing poverty to a home near you.”
The Green Agenda. I wonder if Christine Milne will make sure there is a link on their website?
110
Forget about wind. Here’s the answer.
Pee power!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-17/scientists-find-urine-is-capable-of-recharging-mobile-phones/4827028
We’re saved!
90
It’s a;ll piss and wind at the ABC these days.
70
Yes, I heard this piffed for all it was on the BBS World Service this morning. It was a great start to the day because it manifestly broadcasts the peddled desperation now residing the green meme, who have collectively plunged from the implausible to the insane.
30
17 July: Bloomberg: Rakteem Katakey/Rajesh Kumar Singh: Ambani Gas Set to Revive Stalled Power Projects: Corporate India
Asia’s biggest energy consumer after China plans to add 88,537 megawatt of power generation capacity in the five years to March 2017, 81 percent of which will be run on coal or gas, according to the Central Electricity Authority…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-16/keeping-lights-on-may-mean-diverting-ambani-gas-corporate-india.html
17 July: ABC: Jennifer Macey: World Bank to stop funding coal-fired power stations in developing countries
However, the bank says it could still fund plants on some occasions, including in places where there are no feasible alternatives to coal…
The World Bank says in the last five years it has doubled its financial support for renewable energy projects such as off grid household solar in Bangladesh and Mongolia, wind farms in Turkey and geo-thermal projects in Kenya.
Mr Jackson says that the World Bank has also been instrumental in backing carbon markets to help fund these green energy projects in poorer countries.
“In their view the most effective to reduce emissions is to put a price on carbon, so they have been working with many countries – Chile, Mexico, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam – to actually start building the global carbon market and building carbon markets,” he said…
However, there is also the danger that donor countries like China may fill in the space left behind the bank and continue to fund fossil fuel projects in poor countries.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-17/world-bank-to-stop-funding-coal-fired-power-stations-in-develop/4826928
18 July: ABC: New coal loader almost complete
Construction work is nearing completion on the final stage of Newcastle’s third coal loader that will boost annual coal exports in the port to 200 million tonnes…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-18/new-coal-loader-almost-complete/4827280
10
in keeping with the humour of this thread. check the 6 pic gallery:
16 July: DVICE: Colin Druce-McFadden: Live like a hermit atop a massive wind turbine
If you’ve been looking for somewhere to get away from it all, design firm Morphocode might have just thought up your dream home. By combining the age-old concept of lighthouse-style dwellings and the forward-thinking fields of offshore wind turbines, designers have come up with a futuristic-looking loft space…
The denizens of these low-density-living wind farms are meant to function as engineers and repair workers — on-call for when any of the monster turbines go down. Enjoying wind, choppy seas, rain and electrical engineering is a must. You’ll also want to seriously stock up on reading material, since high-speed Internet may not be available in all areas.
That being said, the view would be epic and at least your electric bill is taken care of. So, if a hermitage is what you’re after and carabiner is your ideal accessory, keep your fingers crossed. Your perfect community could be ready for move-in as early as 2015.
http://www.dvice.com/2013-7-16/live-hermit-atop-massive-wind-turbine
50
I have to say that I really did like the futuristic house on a pole in the Tom Cruise movie “Oblivion”. Even Tom wasn’t quite his usual obnoxious self.
As for the little VTOL aircraft THAT FLIES ALL THE WAY TO ORBIT….. I have GOT to get me one of them.
30
includes video footage of the exploding turbine:
10 July: New Scientist: Paul Marks: Why storm winds turned wind turbine into a fireball
It was a picture that warmed the hearts of opponents of wind farms the world over. In December 2011, a wind turbine at the coastal town of Ardrossan in the UK spectacularly exploded during a storm. Pictures of the flaming debris shower flashed across global media, triggering claims that turbines cannot cope in extreme weather.
But Infinis, the operator of the wind farm, claims in a report into the incident just published that the turbines should be able to withstand such conditions if new safety measures are put in place…
First, yaw control on the turbine was lost owing to a gear failure, so the feathered blades could not be pointed into the wind. This meant the turbine head swung back and forth in the wind, generating extreme frictional heat and sparking a fire in the generator enclosure.
Second, the report reveals that the turbine was configured to apply a brake to the turbine blades when no power is available to run its electronic systems. So when the wind brought down power lines, the brakes were automatically applied to fix the blades in a stationary position. But the Atlantic storm’s winds; proved too strong and the wind forced the blades to turn regardless, dragging the brake pads around a metal disc, generating heat and causing a second flashpoint, possibly through ignition of hydraulic oil…
Burn the evidence
Much of the evidence was burned, and Infinis and Vestas disagree on which was the key initial cause of the destructive fire: Infinis believes it was the loss of yaw control, while Vestas thinks brake drag more the root cause. While Vestas has produced its own report, an expert was not available to discuss its findings with New Scientist.
Vestas has since fixed the brake problem. In future, the feathered rotor will not have the brake applied in high winds; it will be free to turn if it needs to…
And a slip clutch should ensure that any future loss of yaw control will not generate excessive heat.
Given the risk from fire that is above the reach of firefighters, Infinis’s report recommends that turbine-makers improve fire detection and prevention. It urges more use of fire retardant materials in turbine construction, the fitting of “more comprehensive” fire-detection systems and the development of automatic fire extinguishing systems for retro-fitting to older turbines as well as an option in new ones…
“We’re in the middle of an investigation to see whether a criminal offence has been committed,” says Karl Turner, spokesman for the HSE (Health and Safety Executive). “We’ll obviously take the [Infinis and Vestas] reports into consideration, but we’ve got our own assessments to make and these can take time. There’s no timescale for the completion of the investigation.”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23848-why-storm-winds-turned-wind-turbine-into-a-fireball.html#.Ud7nAFO9zSG
40
Hanover, Massachusetts calling on Indian techs…
4 July: TheHeraldNews: Neal Simpson: Hanover calls in technicians from India to fix troubled wind turbine
More than two years after the town’s wind turbine was supposed to start spinning, town officials have arranged to bring in technicians from India in hopes of getting the beleaguered turbine working.
Victor Diniak, the town’s public works director, said he expects two technicians from the turbine manufacturer, India-based Siva Group, to arrive later this month to review the installation of the turbine, which stands 210 feet over Route 53 and is supposed to generate electricity for the town’s water treatment plant…
The turbine was supposed to be completed and operational by February 2011, but the company hired to install it, Woburn-based Lumus Construction, has run into a series of problems, including an accident in December in which a worker fell 24 feet inside the turbine tower and had to be removed by a specially trained rescue team. Town officials decided in January to fire Lumus, but they later backed off at the advice of the town’s bonding company. They decided instead to hire another firm to oversee Lumus’ work as the job is completed.
Diniak said the company continues to struggle with a mechanical component meant to slow the spinning of the turbine during the switch from the generator used when the wind is strong to the one used when the wind is lighter. He said technicians are trying to determine whether there is a defect in a tank that stores hydraulic fluid for the braking system…
Town officials have said that language in its contract with Lumus will require the company to pay the town $1,000 for every day past the February 2011 deadline that the turbine is not completed. The final price tag for the project was originally expected to be about $790,000, with state grants covering part of the cost.
Diniak said the need to work with companies in different parts of the world has contributed to the slow pace of progress.
“When people are working here, they’re sleeping there,” he said. “It’s very difficult to get everyone together at the same time, but that’s the nature of the world economy.”
http://www.heraldnews.com/state/x997477408/Hanover-calls-in-technicians-from-India-to4 Jul-fix-troubled-wind-turbine
20
The graph was an eye-opener for me. Indeed, the variability it depicts is so stark that I wonder how reliable its data are. At the source, I saw this description: “The figure shows the total hourly output in 2004 of 7000 wind turbines spread over several thousand square kilometres, from the North Sea and the Baltic Sea to the Austrian-Swiss border.” The bemusing phrase is “over several thousand square kilometres,” which can be as little as a 50-mile square.
Does anyone have a second (and disambiguating) source for those data?
30
Jo,
Welcome to the wind industry’s run-away best selling title – “Gust to Gust”
30
>”The graph was an eye-opener for me.”
Me too Joe. I would have anticipated a little better load profile from 7000 turbines over Northern Europe (some diversity surely?). But no, that’s an eye opener. And pathetic.
Wonder if it has improved since 2004 with the addition of more units (as if 7000 isn’t enough for diversity)? If not, what’s the point of any?
40
Heh. Holy cow.
Something else may be causing the interference. Has anyone seen Indian power lines?
But I digress.. Wind power just isn’t a cheaper let alone reliable source of electricity unless you live in the jet stream.
30
They import engineers from India? Would you drive your wife and kids around in an Indian car or fly the Atlantic in an Indian built plane? Not me that’s for sure, and that is based on the engineers and QA people I have worked with for 15 years, All have degrees, all are expert in all fields, all of them had a mansion in India filled with servants but none will tell you why they are out here.
10
They are everywhere but India due the lack of opportunity. Indian government is too big a part of the economy and its run by the most corrupt public servants- need to be family or big bribe payers to get a job.
Corruption reaches every level of Indian society so they never get the growth that China achieved once.
Sexual and religion related violence plays a small part like the the gang rape of a woman in a city and noone ever got charged. There is city push back against the violence but its effect is small.
Indians are largely too proud to admit how bad their country is.
13
Yes Michael… and don’t forget that if you want a degree, doctorate or anything, you only need to pay for it…. which is why I have no time for all of your Indian “peer reviewed science”
30
Easy Backslider.
This may be a different Michael. “Peer Review” Michael has a triangular shaped head in his avatar. Unless he is one and the same and using fake email addresses. Perhaps a Mod can check it out.
10
Indian universities just like ours employ no public servants ( otherwise the country would fail to operate with fake doctors and engineers). You can’t buy a degree any more than any other country. Indian public servants start with a culture of corruption in training. Journals are private too- so only as much corruption level as other places.
10
False. I have seen first hand somebody pay for a Masters, including the thesis for it written by one of the professors.
10
Backslider, here is more on the subject of India’s education:
00
We can be thankful that this springs from the land of Pachauri and TERI, his very own division of TATA which absorbs TATA research funding. Donna Laframboise wrote about Pachauri’s ties and the potential for conflicts of interest with his role in the IPCC as its chairman.
30
Not only that Bernd.
Pachauri is, or at least was, the Advisory Board Chairman for the Asia Development Bank. The ADB provided half the funding* for the development of the Mundra Power Project; the contract for which, just happened to be awarded to a subsidiary company of Tata Power.
What matters in India, is not what you know, but who you know. And Pachauri is, what the British call, “a fixer”.
*The other half was provided by The World Bank.
70
Politician sleepover at a windfarm in SA to get “real feel” of noise pollution claims inconclusive results because the wind blew the wrong way.
He says the inquiry yesterday heard the noise can be sporadic.
.
Peak stupid. Are we there yet?
30
The smarmy local Greens MP was happy to report he had not suffered any long term effect after camping underneath a turbine on one single night in May. One single night, what a tosser, and he didn’t mention whether there had actually been any wind that night.
Not that a Greens MP is a good test subject anyhow. The adverse symptoms would be undetectable anyway in a Greens MP. They say after several sleepless nights the affected individual can’t function… 😉
40
What we are apparently seeing here with the Indian’s demands of the wind industry appears to be a sledge hammer approach to ensuring that the wind power generation industry conforms to the actual power needs of the populace and not just generate power at their whim and convenience and still expect to get generously paid for their exploitation of the lack of regiulations re power delivery and demand.
When looked at on a truly global scale of wind and solar power generation this Indian requirement is just another factor in the very large scale and quite subtle trend towards bringing the avaricious cowboys of the global wind industry under full control of the communities and governments where they operate.
Quite unknowingly by Governments and community organisations, they are following a very long historical trend in that they are making and indeed forcing a radical new technology to conform, to mature and become fully responsible and liable for any harm and damage to the communities they serve and are being forced to become fully responsible and liable for their failures to meet the demands of the community and the new and increasing regulations and rules that the community eventually demands of any new and radical technology.
The new rules such as the Indian requirement for forecastable outputs of power to maintain grid stability, the German and UK’s resident’s increasingly strident demands that the wind industry be brought to heel as to where they can and cannot erect wind turbines, the USA’s increasing legal challenges to new wind farms often based on not the wind farm owners as such but legal actions against absentee land owners who have leased their properties to the wind investors and who are being sued by neighbours for damage to lifestyles and imposition of damaging effects from the adjacent wind turbines.
Then there are the Spanish, the UK, the Germans, the Irish, the Danes and many others who are now starting to see the immense flaws in the wind energy and solar energy generation claims and are getting over their fascination and fixation on renewable energy as the salvation of mankind as CO2 continues to rise and yet global temperatures continue to stagnate thereby bringing into question why such immense public resources should continue to be thrown at a solving a problem that does not seem to exist.
That along with the self inflicted serious economic situations of most western governments exacerbated by their immense renewable energy subsidy costs is leading to a very big rethink globally on the capabilities of the so called renewable energies to economical and reliably supply the adequate civilisation demanding stability of electrical power at a price that enables economic progress to continue.
There is a very close parallel to the current situation of the global wind and solar renewable energy industry to that to be found in the period from about 1825 to 1900. and that was the extraordinarily rapid cowboy type development of the global railway systems;
http://www.flowofhistory.com/units/eme/17/FC112
Wind and solar energy companies just like those 19th century railway companies have until very recently been able to almost do as they wish with the connivance of governments and bureaucracies but the citizenry in an increasing number of cases have about have had enough and are demanding that these so called wind and solar renewable industries be reined in and be made totally responsible for all their actions and outcomes.
And Governments are now starting to respond accordingly just as they did when the cowboys of the global rail building epoch who did as they wished for a time where also eventually reined in by governments.
Railways of course were then a radical new technology unlike any that went beforehand and therefore brought immense benefits wherever they went as well as to the whole nation.
And they also collected huge subsidies at the time from governments to build most of the those rail lines
Even so despite this, like the renewable energy sector is about to experience, a huge number of newly set up rail companies invariably went broke.
Rail lines were built willy nilly often without anything backing them except it seemed a good idea at the time and then failed when shown to be totally uneconomic bankrupting quite a few of their investors.
Unlike those railway systems and rail companies of the 19th century, wind and solar generators are trying to compete against a very long established, very reliable and sophisticated fossil and nuclear fueled energy generators with a long record of economic and reliable power generation history.
Not realised by most is that wind and solar are NOT new energy sources.
They merely temporarily REPLACE some fossil fueled energy generation.
Those same fossil fueled energy generators still have to remain and be maintained at the usual cost to generate power when the wind and solar fail to generate due to lack of wind or sunshine as Tony from Oz has repeatedly posted and which anybody can ascertain the wind generators performance from our eastern Australian AEMO site.
What we are seeing with the Indian government’s demands for a forecast on future wind energy power generation is just another of the increasing demands on wind and solar energy corporations for a maturity and responsibility in every aspect of their operations which if they don’t very soon meet the community’s expectations in these increasingly strident demands, something which is increasingly being questioned, will lead to the eventual demise and total destruction of the wind and solar renewable energy industries along with close to a trillion dollars of our global wealth.
And then people will start to ask for why and for what reason was all that wealth destroyed and for what credible reason was all that suffering inflicted for ?
And then the questions will begin. Who was responsible for all of this ?
130
It is difficult to prove that wind generation is very expensive. However in response to a letter to the Canberra Times saying how cheap it was I responded with the following using government data :
Marju Tonisson of Infigen (financial interest in wind) points out that the average electricity user pays about $40 a year for large scale renewables and that this proves that subsidies for wind are not large. This is pure subterfuge.
Where I live the electricity price is 33 cents per kWh. Of this approximately 3 cents is for wholesale (w/s) electricity, about 1/11th. In the IPART fact sheet (Marju’s supporting material) the average yearly electricity used was 6500 kWh per household. At $.33 per kWh that works out to $2145 per annum. 1/11th of that, $185.00 is for w/s electricity. 3.1% (proportion wind generated electricity) of the w/s amount is ~$6.05. To determine the subsidy (REC) simply divide $40 by $6.05 = $6.61. In other words for each dollar spent on w/s wind generated electricity $6.61 of subsidy is paid out. That makes wind over 7.6 times more expensive than average w/s price for electricity. I think that is significant.
This is supported by the American EIA estimate of 15 cents per kWh for wind by 2016. So much for how cheap wind is.
Marju is misguided in thinking that the transmission infrastructure for wind doesn’t affect the price of electricity. Without the wind generators that capacity would not be needed and therefore not built and maintained and not add to the infrastructure cost. It is very naive to assume otherwise.
Wind generated electricity is hugely expensive but the costs are hidden under other headings such as RECs, transmissions infrastructure etc !
The cost of wind is anything but modest.
120
The Greens, with the balance of power in the Legislative Assembly, virtual run Canberra so what better place to test the economic viability and reliability of ‘renewables’, excluding hydro of course.
Before ruining more beauty spots around the country and the local residents’ enjoyment and health, why not install windmills at every suitable vantage point around the capital, as many as they like, then cut Canberra off from the national power grid where it currently gets its supply?
It seems a perfect place for a test.
Surely the Greens and ALP fellow travellers in the territory would welcome the opportunity to demonstrate to the world the reliability and economic sense of free sustainable energy ;-).
90
I think that Canberra’s vista would look wonderful with windmills all along the top of the Stromlo range. And the Black Mountain Tower could be converted into a mega windmill, something to rival Christ The Redeemer in Rio….. and don’t forget the flag pole on Parliament house. Red Hill would also look nice dotted with the lovely flowery shapes of wind turbines……
C’mon Canberra, show the World what you are made of!!!
30
The graph doesn’t show what you claim it shows.
Additionally, it’s 8 years out of date.
Renewables increase the variability in demand by a factor of about 2. That’s a fact of life in the new world of electricity-generation.
521
“Renewables increase the variability in demand . . .”
How so?
110
Translation: Renewables increase the risk of blackouts by a factor of about 2.
190
Aah! That makes more sense. Thanks.
100
Margot, of all the dumb things trolls have posted, that just about has to take the prize for stupid. I don’t think even John Brookes has come anywhere near close.
Margot, “demand” is people’s requirement for electricity. Renewables have zero effect on demand. Except maybe eventually when people realise how terrible the supply has become, and go out and buy gas stoves, candles, and kerosene heaters.
Renewables increase the variability in supply, and neither electrical equipment, nor the people who use it, are geared for constantly fluctuating supply. Try smelting aluminium with an on-again, off-again power supply.
180
There is enormous competition for the crown formerly awarded to Sillyfilly.
I was personally happy to award the number one spot to BA4 after being gobsmacked by this little beauty.
Of course everyone has their own opinion and their own crown to give. Just thought if you had a wider range of egregious examples to pick from you might award your top spot with greater certainty.
Margot’s apparent gaff shows signs of rhetorical sophistication. If you use word games to redefine demand to be the same as supply then wind and solar supply can never fall short of demand. Clever isn’t it? A bit like redefining global warming so that now “climate change” is real no matter what happens.
120
.
My apologies, Andrew. I missed that little pearl of witless from Dribbling Bladder. Margot’s efforts were almost clever by comparison.
I stand corrected.
50
I wonder what his answer is to 3+8.
Perhaps this is where we are all missing what is happening with temperature adjustments? We just do not understand modern math and the climate “scientists” are right… they are, really, they are…
30
Who needs aluminum cans? We will simply make little tiny wooden cups, like miniature
barrels and buy a 6-pack of those to drink. A bit heavier but that will increase the
health and strength of our glorious comrades.
20
Who needs aluminum cans? We will simply make little tiny wooden cans, like miniature
barrels and buy a 6-pack of those to drink. A bit heavier but that will increase the
health and strength of our glorious comrades.
00
Memoryvault, you should really read up on this before commenting – in Germany, renewable energy is consumed first by law – the remaining demand is then met with whatever other energy is available.
Thus, the variability in demand (and required to be met by other, fuel-consuming sources) is roughly doubled.
Pretty simple to understand, if you know what you are talking about.
The graph this article is based on represents a situation since when the generation of renewable energy has increased by 700%. It is therefore not just useless, but misleading.
411
Everybody (TfromOZ, Louis etc),
I’m going to try to keep this as simple as possible for Margot, since I am obviously dealing with a simpleton. So cut me a little slack for the rubbery technological explanation.
Margot,
1) – In any distributed electrical system such as a domestic grid, with multiple inputs from multiple sources, all input supplies must be synchronised with each other. This is referred to as “being in phase”.
2) – This is accomplished by taking one stable source, which is used to establish the phase. This source is known sometimes as “the Primary”. The Primary runs at a set, steady output.
3) – All other sources are then brought “into phase” with the Primary. Their output constantly fluctuates, in order to meet varying demand (“load”) on the system as a whole, while they remain “in phase”. This is called being “in droop” to the Primary.
Now, pay close attention here Margot, for now we must introduce some logic, and I know logic isn’t your strong point.
4) – Since solar and wind sources of “renewable” energy “fluctuate”, they can’t serve as the Primary. Only a proper non-variable source can do that – such as a fossil or nuclear power station.
5) – Therefore, at any moment in time, the grid may or may not be drawing some power from a variety of sources, including “renewable”, but is ALWAYS drawing power from the Primary source. So regardless of any law, consumed power in Germany is first and foremost from a fossil or nuclear source, and only supplemented from a “renewable” source.
Within the confines of existing and foreseeable technology, it cannot be otherwise. Which, of course, is one of the biggest of many reasons why fluctuating “renewable” power sources such as solar and wind, will never, ever be more than an irritant to those engineers trying to ensure a stable power supply, while serving as a sop to the conscience of fools like you, who have absolutely no idea about electrical generation.
.
180
Thanks MemoryVault,
Note at this link, (UK National Grid Status) the second gauge in from the left, Frequency.
That is absolutely IMPERATIVE that it remains at 50Hz.
A large scale coal fired plant would have typically 4 units. When one comes back up after maintenance, everything fires up in sequence.
The very LAST thing done is to synchronise the frequency with the other units and then with the surrounding grid.
As each new plant comes on line as Demand gradually ramps up on a daily basis, the LAST thing done is to synchronise the frequency before the unit is then switched on, connected to the actual grid.
Large units and a few of them was an easy task, not easy as in easy, but easy to manage a small number of plants that are in use.
Now you have a Wind plant with 250 or more huge towers, and each one is a separate generator. As the wind picks up and more of them start spinning, they spin up, start generating and then come on line. Now there’s not one unit at one plant coming on line but 250 of them that they have to control.
Then half a dozen, twenty, or even more or so of these wind plants, and here in Australia, we currently have around 2000+ of those towers, supplying the equivalent power of perhaps one large unit at Bayswater.
So, instead of controlling ONE unit at Bayswater, we have 2000+ of them to control, exactly, perfectly, perfectly, perfectly. Do you get the drift.
Then we have rooftop solar power, each one with an inverter, each one now having to have a perfect synchronous frequency to exactly 50Hz.
Millions of rooftop solar plants we are smugly told.
So now, instead of a couple of dozen units controlled on a relatively easy to control basis, we have thousands of wind towers, and millions of Inverters, all now connected to the grid, all having to be PERFECTLY synchronised to grid frequency.
Vary that frequency even a little, and watch the sheer and utter chaos.
See now how upkeep of the grid (due mainly to this) adds considerably to electricity costs.
Nahh! what can go wrong. It just comes out of the hole in the wall.
Tony.
140
I might add that the mains frequency is used as a reference by lots of industrial and medical equipment — some of it life support. The mains frequency, and the acceptable tolerance thereof, is therefore mandated by law.
To keep the frequency “clean” (i.e., without interference or spikes) is not as simple as it may seem, and the more input sources you have, the harder it becomes to combine their output, and stay within tolerance. This is why there must be a reference source that is produced by a generator that is constantly running at a known speed and within a known tolerance.
90
And dear Margot, they didn’t even begin to tell you how we control over/under voltage, as well as frequency, because discerning customers like you are beset with rage if your voltage is abnormal or your frequency is even a few tenths of a Hz from nominal. I would explain the world of FCAS (frequency control ancillary services), spinning reserve, synchronous condensers, power factor, VARS, etc. that are infinitely more difficult with a few giant bat chompers in the grid, but I know you wouldn’t for a minute give a damn. If a bird muncher becomes slightly unstable, it simply drops off the grid! Inertia aupplied by the other generators then must save the day. One day soon there will be no inertial left, so I recommend you corner the market on coal oil lamps.
120
Rod,
Do you think the concept of 3 phase power is beyond its comprehension or do we give that one a crack (pun not intended) as well
31
On another note “abnormal” voltage is not generally liked by modern computers. I know,because I had this precise issue with my power company back a bit,where my computer was blue-screening every 30 minutes,every day because my power fluctuated wildly,re the reports I sent to them,when I attached a voltage tester to the line. I was forced to pay for a power converter,as this was apparently “within acceptable levels: to avoid having my new computer destroyed,by the same fluctuations that killed my first one.
Wouldn’t so-called “renewable” power be ten times worse in this regard,and why should people be forced to pay for something which we don’t need,but we seem to be forced to have,in regard to this?
50
And Margot, some day soon Tony and yours truly plan to pull a John Galt and disappear in the Snowy Mountains, leaving you to freeze in the dark. Right, Tony?
60
Hey, wasn’t John Galt an electrical engineer.
Tony.
40
Margot,
I have just reread your first sentence, that says, “… in Germany, renewable energy is consumed first by law …”. I was wondering how the Germans managed to differentiate between renewable energy electrons, and electrons from other sources?
80
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Aww – c’mon guys, play fair.
FCAS, VARS, spinning reserve, 3 phases, electron identification?
.
We’re dealing with somebody who thinks wind towers are really, really tall ‘cos electricity runs downhill.
Don’t be cruel.
110
Ya know, this is starting to look an awful lot like an IEEE convention.
60
Sounds good to me 😉
40
Are us RF guys welcome or are we at the wrong angle too often due to 2πf at MHz?
10
Star Delta
Tony.
20
Message recieved and understood. Will root 3 at high frequency as instructed.
00
Only I ain’t one.
Tony.
40
I’ve made you honorary member for the purposes of this blog.
30
Ex Raafies are exempt………….we just need to keep an eye on those Navy fellas
11
Oi!
20
.
Oh, I see.
And us ex grunts just get ignored – again.
20
Par for the course MV. 😉
10
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Yeah, one wonders how long the flyboys would last without the Navy supplying them, and the Army defending their bases.
And it’s interesting to note that, despite all the Air Force’s multi-million dollar toys, to this day statistically the most successful weapon of war is the humble field mortar.
40
Is this Margot Kidder?
30
More like Margot Hemingway!
30
More like maggot Kidder…….
21
I am surprised by this, India have more uranium than they know what to do with plus we sell it to them and coupled with the fact that they have about 20 fission reactors why do they even bother with the wind?
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Rajendra Pachauri, current Chairman of the IPCC, is also a Senior Adviser to the Indian Government on energy matters, and also sits on the board of TATA Industries, one of India’s largest operators of wind farms (amongst other things).
.
. . . Of course, that could all just be a coincidence . . .
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Oh, of course, how silly of me to look at this from such perspective. I do try to see the best of intentions of people in things and am generally disappointed to find that is not the case which is why i did not consider the most likely scenario that a retired railway engineer and part time smut novalist would have control over not only Indian environmental policy but also its power production industry as well.
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And as I explained to Bernd, further up the thread, he is, or was, the Advisory Board Chairman of the Asia Development Bank.
50
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So many pies, and only ten fingers.
Must be terribly frustrating for him.
90
…but theyre probably working on cloning more.
00
Perhaps there is something we missed
30
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I think you might be onto something, BS.
20
May the many arms of Vishnu strike you down, you derdy unbeliever! 😀
Besides, eating pies is a dangerous pastime. Wouldn’t want that railroad engineer to chew his last choo choo.
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Did you hear that the railway engineer is now claiming to have two pHDs … THE IPCC CHAIRMAN’S FAKE SECOND PHD
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Let’s lessen the burden on wind farms. When all those living happily in ‘threatened’ coastal villages are forcibly removed, we could surround the coastline with those blow-up wave-power generators.(Or are they relics already?)
30
Wow … is this a sign the time be a changing? “Cool it” the documentary is linked from the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/tv/environment/cool-it-4371702.html
Thanks to Mr Lomborg for making inroads … yes, he is a warmist, but at least he is pragmatic about ridiculous policies like ETS markets etc. He provides an “out” for politicians that want to gradually back away from the CAGW policy cliff.
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Went to the link–says it is not authorized for my area (US).
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That’s a shame – I watched half of it this morning on my tablet. So far it is a good show. It was appalling to see how Lomborg was treated by the establishment for not towing the CAGW line & associated ETS policies.
Short version: spend money on lifting the under-developed world out of poverty, not ETS schemes that only make vested interests richer. What makes lomborg dangerous is that he is a very good communicator and he spruiks common sense that is counter to the official Green (misanthropic) mantra.
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I bought the DVD a while ago… under $10 bin at JB-Hifi, IIRC.
At least he doesn’t pretend to understand atmospheric physics.
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A supplementary to comments from Tony from Oz and JPM. I’ve been looking at this year’s South Australian prices. It appears that renewables are causing price rises in Autumn and Winter where there are many weekdays where the average reference price in the 7AM to 10PM period have been high, one last month at $880/MWh and nearly $2000/MWh in some half hour periods. I have wind output data for the last 28 days and these high prices have occurred when wind output has low. High prices earlier than this correspond with lower wind speeds.
South Australia is interconnected with Victoria and so can rely on the interconnectors to make up some shortfall but I hate to think of what might happen when low cost coal has been driven out and all the states in the National Energy Market have a high penetration of renewables.
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Sounds a great way for Indian public servants to drive more bribes from the wind industry the numbers will be falsified of course.
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I suggest that we immediately organise a new competition: identify and sack all the Common Purpose graduates whose indoctrination by Julia Middleton into fake IPCC ‘science’ and fake windmill statistics is going to lead in the UK to 100s of 1000s of deaths, in Oz fewer but still substantial.
This is because up to 15 GW of diesel generators will power up in UK cities 4 hours a day, releasing double the CO2 of a CCGT and the particulates which will lead, in 30 years, to the extra deaths.
So, the windmills, or as I prefer to state, granny killers, are going to produce more CO2 than the central generators being closed down and because of the new source of deadly pollution in the inner cities will be deadly killers. It’ll be as bad as the time before catalysts on auto exhausts and lead in petrol.
And these scum call people like me ‘deniers’ for stating that the Agenda 21 justification is on fake science dating from 1981_Hansen_etal.pdf. which first made the 33 K GHE claim, an increase by a factor of 3. Futhermore, there is a process in the atmosphere which uses CO2 as the working fluid to control climate. CO2-AGW is zero.
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Well if they can predict the global climate one hundred years in advance I am sure that guessing tomorrows wind should be no problem.
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Well, here in Blighty we recently a toe-curling interview between one of the more incisive interviewers which the BBC employ, Andrew Neil, and our (excuse me while I gag) Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Davey. (He looks like Wayne Rooney’s nasty elder brother…)
Anyway – in amongst said toe-curling (for the amount of crap being dispensed) interview, Mr Davey leaned forward ernestly and stated that ‘We are working on’ systems to iron out the peaks and troughs of wind power…
So – folks – any decade soon, wind will be a ‘really useful’ source of electricity generation. But in the meantime – it stays as a system to line the pockets of developers and landowners…
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Why are we using a system that needs the peaks and troughs ironed out in the first place? And how much CO2 is added by the system that irons out the peaks and troughs? There is talk of storage systems which have yet to work out (there are maybe two successful, small-scale storage plants). Every item you add to wind increases the CO2 it takes to make the parts of the system. Many parts wear out in less than five years. So any carbon saving that might have existed is definitely gone when you throw in storage costs and maintenance. Granted, there’s no visible smokestack like coal has, but there’s plenty of smoke and fumes with manufacture and transport, maintenance, etc. I guess if you take a large smokestack and divide it into little ones, there’s less CO2 and pollution, right?
(do I really need /sarc?)
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That’s water vapour from the cooling towers
Have you fallen for the subliminal trickie so favoured by ABC TV ?
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Okay, it’s mostly water vapor. As far as I know, science has not advanced to the point that the vapor from a coal plant is nothing but H2O. If so, I seriously doubt the EPA could shut down coal plants for CO2 and mercury emissions. If the scrubbers were 100%, we would not be having this discussion.
Since I have no access to ABC TV, I guess one would have to assume the US broadcasters (all of them) use the same trick? Or the MSM, which I don’t watch on a regular basis?
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No problem.
Should be able to model that.
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still nothing whatsoever in our MSM about the TPP, which i find EXTRAORDINARY. are we really a democratic country?
18 July: Japan Times Editorial: Parties must clearly explain TPP
If Japan becomes a member of the TPP, it will greatly impact agriculture and other industries, and people’s lives. Deplorably, political parties are talking about the TPP only in the general terms of whether they support or oppose it. They should present the TPP’s merits and demerits in a clear-cut and detailed manner so that voters can be fully informed before passing judgment on it…
Political parties also should pay attention to the fact the TPP scheme covers trade rules in 21 fields including intellectual property, government procurement and the environment. Japan should not forget that the United States has a clear strategy on how to expand its interests in the finance and insurance sectors in the Japanese economy through the TPP arrangement Political parties should specifically address fears that the TPP may undermine Japan’s public health insurance system…
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/07/18/editorials/parties-must-clearly-explain-tpp/
even the US has grave concerns:
8 July: US News & World Report: Michael Shank: The Big Problems in Obama’s Big Trade Deals
Discussions are happening fast and furiously. TTIP is already underway and the administration hopes to finish the TPP negotiations by October. Beyond the disembowelment of environmental and labor standards, there’s a larger issue that remains out of the spotlight. It is the plan for extrajudicial “investor-state” tribunals as the final arbiter on trade disputes.
While it sounds innocuous enough, the operative word here is extrajudicial, and Democrats and Republicans should be concerned with the sovereignty issues. As the Huffington Post’s Zach Carter explains, “Foreign corporations operating within the U.S. would be permitted to appeal key American legal or regulatory rulings to an international tribunal. That international tribunal would be granted the power to overrule American law.” Furthermore, the tribunals can order taxpayer compensation for health and environmental policies that inhibit foreign investors’ “expected future profits.”…
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/07/08/us-eu-trade-agreement-needs-more-congressional-oversight
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Thanks Pat,
I can always count on you to help me keep abreast of the sneaky deals the Ruling Class is trying to slip past.
10
U.N. on PR drive as investment in carbon market slumps
LONDON, July 18 (Reuters Point Carbon) – The number of projects seeking U.N approval to earn carbon credits under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) fell 75 percent in the first six months of the year compared to the first half of 2012, according to data published on the U.N. climate body’s website…
http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2469015?&ref=searchlist
SMH/Bloomberg helping with the PR:
19 July: SMH: Bloomberg: UN carbon prices rally on shortage of new projects
The longest-ever rally in United Nations carbon prices shows little sign of easing as traders bet companies running emission-reduction projects will stop creating credits because it’s no longer profitable to do so.
UN-approved Certified Emission Reductions, or CERs, for December have more than doubled to 49 cents (70 c. cents) from a record low in April on the ICE Futures Europe exchange…
Prices for the credits used by 34 of the richest nations from Germany to Australia to offset domestic emissions by investing in greenhouse-gas-reduction projects elsewhere tumbled 98 percent since peaking at 23.38 euros in 2008 as the global economic slowdown cut demand…
The UN’s Clean Development Mechanism, set up by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, has supported the development of more than 6,900 projects in 87 countries and was worth 6.6 billion euros last year, according to New Energy Finance. Falling UN and European Union carbon prices shrank the value of emissions traded worldwide by 36 percent to 61 billion euros last year, New Energy Finance said in a January report…
The low UN carbon offset price may mean new emission-reduction projects won’t be built or existing facilities are dismantled, according to Renat Heuberger, chief executive officer of project developer South Pole Carbon Asset Management in Zurich.
“It’s going to be a significant amount,” he said July 12 in an e-mailed response to questions. “For example, in the landfill and biogas space there is no point keeping the collection systems in place if CER prices are so low.”…
“There’s a total of about 500 million tons of offset supply in the market at the moment that hasn’t been submitted as part of compliance,” Richard Chatterton, an analyst at New Energy Finance in London, said by phone on June 19. “That’s a huge overhang, which could push the price back below the cost of issuance.”
Trading volume in CER futures has dwindled this year to 10 million tons a week on average, a 67 percent slump from 2012, according to ICE Futures data…
http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/un-carbon-prices-rally-on-shortage-of-new-projects-20130719-2q82f.html
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19 July: Bloomberg: Christopher Martin: Solar to Reduce Utility Profits in Five Years, Fitch Says
Rooftop solar power and energy-efficiency programs will eat into utility revenue and profit margins and discourage investment in new transmission projects within five years, a Fitch Ratings analyst said…
Utility revenue is increasingly threatened by technology that’s reducing demand for electricity from the grid, including solar panels, smart meters and software that shuts down operations when power prices spike. As some customers’ bills fall, state regulators will let utilities shift some of their fixed costs to other customers who don’t use solar panels, Grabelsky said today from New York…
Arizona regulators are now considering a proposal by its largest utility, Arizona Public Service Co., to reduce the price it must pay to buy solar power from customers.
“As more customers install solar on their homes, it becomes even more important that everyone who uses the grid shares in the cost of keeping it operating reliably for the future,” Don Brandt, chief executive officer of Pinnacle West Capital Corp. (PNW), which owns Arizona Public Service, said in a July 11 statement announcing the company’s proposal…
Loss of demand from customers that go solar or reduce consumption in other ways will shift more and more grid costs onto customers that do nothing…
Unless utility rate structures change, that will reduce utilities’ abilities to invest in major new projects and upgrade their transmission systems, Grabelsky said.
“It will have a negative impact on their ability to raise capital,” Grabelsky said. “Regulators will ask, ‘Do you really need all that new transmission when there’s no demand growth?’ There’s the potential for stranding assets.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-18/solar-to-reduce-utility-profits-in-five-years-fitch-says.html
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17 July: Sun UK: Simon Englsh: Our rising bills for going green
Energy giants warn of huge price hikes
Yesterday energy giant npower said the Government’s environmental policies would help to cause a 19 per cent rise in fuel costs by 2020.
They added that energy firms’ subsidies of wind and solar power and the price of better energy efficiency will see annual bills rise £240 to £1,487 from £1,247.
Support for low-carbon technologies alone would add £82 to the average energy bill by 2020, say npower, up from £34 in 2013…
Price comparison service energyhelpline think npower’s prediction is way too OPTIMISTIC — and say the average annual bill could soar to £2,000 by 2020, pushing many homes into fuel poverty…
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/5018212/Energy-bill-increase-green-fuel.html
“fuel poverty”? that’s been adjusted already:
9 July: UK Telegraph: Steve Hawkes: Government takes 1m out of fuel poverty – by changing the rules
Campaigners criticised the Government after ministers took 1m people out of fuel poverty – by changing the way the measure is calculated
The Department for Energy and Climate Change said a new definition that cut the official number of “fuel poor” families from 3.5m to 2.5m was being introduced to ensure help is “targeted at those who need it most”.
But critics at the Fuel Poverty Action Group said the Government had “masked an escalating cold homes crisis” by simply redefining the problem…
Campaigners had long argued the old definition had underplayed the extent of the energy crisis and that as many as five million were in fuel poverty.
Last year a Government-commissioned report claimed this number could double to ten million by 2016 because of rising energy prices and costly green taxes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/household-bills/10170108/Government-takes-1m-out-of-fuel-poverty-by-changing-the-rules.html
20
Going slightly off topic, but I have often thought that if someone seeks a career in politics, then rigorous preparation should be a prerequisite.
A doctor or surgeon has to undergo many years of training, and so does an engineer of whatever discipline. The list goes on.
So why not those who aspire to run a country?
For a budding politician, I’d say at least six years of study before joining the party of your choice.
This would mean studying for example history, economics, law, business and also science and technology – the latter an area seemingly favoured by few of the current crop of politicians. I also think that time spent working in industry and the public sector would be essential.
Then, solid proof of having made a real contribution to society would be required before being promoted within the political system.
Ah well, dream on…….
50
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A very, very, very long time ago now, somebody aspiring to be a conservative candidate, had to submit a written dissertation on the validity of the assumptions presented in Bastiat’s “The Law”. They then had to front a panel for a few hours and defend the superiority of the principles of Austrian economics over the claims made in favour of the Keynesian school of thought.
Today I doubt many “conservatives” have even heard of Bastiat, or von Mises.
.
A very, very, very long time ago now, somebody aspiring to be a Labor candidate, had to stand up on a podium in front of a hall full of people, and deliver a public oratory on the essential nature of solidarity to the aspirations of organised labour.
Once Bob Hawke had finished destroying organised labour in Australia, in 1989, the term “solidarity” largely became meaningless within the Labor Party.
30
Totally O/T,
But I think KRudd just won the election.
22
MW
Wait by the end of the week, it’ll change, and take note of the reaction of PNG people to this. They are not happy campers. If the reaction of the locals to the riot on Nauru was considered bad, wait until the first refugees arrive in PNG.
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
30
You may have to wait longer than a week. A lot longer.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-18/smuggler-warns-government-policies-wont-halt-asylum-seekers/4829144
You may have to wait until after the Ruddslide keeps Kevin4Kevin in office before the results of the Manus island expansion become too big to hide.
I’m assuming the arrival rate of illegal immigration is 14000/year and roughly uniform. So an expanded Manus will accumulate them up to the limit of 3000. Oddly enough that is 2.5 months’ worth of people. Just enough to coast into the election having “stopped the boats”. It’s a facade.
Any domestic policy will ultimately fail because it won’t stop people from initiating the journey, only an improvement in world living standards in hellhole countries can do that.
20
Reflecting on the assertions by Margot and excellent retorts by Tony and others, Pointman provides an eloquent reminder:
“The blatant propagandist journalism serves only one useful purpose for us; to alienate the general public with their diatribes. Given the material they hand us nowadays, deploying the humour weapon against them usually suffices, but never for a moment think you can somehow persuade them to our viewpoint. You can never change a fanatic’s basic belief system, which is precisely why it should never be an objective.” Emphasis added.
The central argument of AGW is the theory (it’s not approached as an hypothesis), which, from a scientific perspective, is unsupported by real world observation and therefore shown to be false. This is but one area, or layer, of the argument. The central agenda behind AGW is the “carbon economy” doctrine, which is all about control of economies and people’s lives (Agenda 21 et al), milking wealth from consumers of “carbon” in every facet of life, on a continual basis, globally.
Alleged “renewable” energy vs coal energy is essentially an argument about time scale. Coal and hydrocarbon energy require a long time scale in formation and villified as “bad” because they’re not “renewable”. Wind energy, on the other hand, is argued as “renewable” despite it can never be supplied 24/7/365, but nonetheless is alleged to be “good”.
As Tony eloquently spells out, wind is totally incompatible with a functioning economy and the technology we are reliant on. So do the proponents of environmentalism expect modern economies to degrade so we are eventually on an equal footing with the “Undeveloped Nations”? They might find there is a total revolt well before that occurs, and then where will they hide?
70
The history of science is full of examples of dogmas constructed, evidence suppressed or twisted and alternative theories ignored. The only sane course of action should be to take an attitude of extreme skepticism with regard to all climate science, admit our ignorance, and proceed with great caution with regard to actions we might take based on scientific theories-especially those funded by special interests.
The worlds’ peoples should not be pawns in political power games based on skewed science presented as undisputed facts to meet a political agenda.
30
MemoryVault –
it would be very interesting to know who advised PM Gillard to announce an election date 9 months in advance, allowing ample time for all the political machinations & manipulations to take place!
Australian: Turnbull might have ETS
Herald Sun: Kevin Rudd would lose 2013 Federal Election if Malcolm Turnbull returned to his old job, finds poll
Brisbane Times: We want Malcolm Turnbull, voters say
AFR: Coalition chances better with Turnbull: polls
Guardian: Malcolm in the middle: why the Coalition might turn to Turnbull
SMH: Tony Abbott may be rattled but a Malcolm Turnbull-Kevin Rudd election remains unlikely
SMH: Rudd, Abbott both fail on real action on climate change
Herald Sun: Rudd beat Abbott at his own game
Herald Sun: Rudd surprises with hardline boat plan
Herald Sun: Rudd leaves Abbott to chart new course
but none so enthusiastic – including many whose comments have been published – as mr. bolt:
Andrew Bolt: Rudd’s masterstroke. All boat people now to go to PNG
30
Having commented extensively about the Indian 15 minutes pricing plan that has been in place for the last 10 years, I thought I could give some context to the headline. Generators are to provide the controllers a day ahead a forecast of availability for each 15 minute period. The controllers combine the availability forecasts and the load forecasts to determine a 15 minute dispatch for each generator. Until recently, I believe this was an hourly forecast instead of a 15 minute forecast.
To the extent that a generator is out of balance relative to the dispatch order provided by the controller, the generator faces a 15 minute price for that imbalance, whether the imbalance is positive or negative. When there is a shortage of electricity, measured real time based on the average frequency during the 15 minute period, the 15 minute price goes relatively high. When there is a surplus of electricity, the 15 minute price goes relatively low, even down to zero.
In the past couple of years, the pricing vector has been changed such that small imbalances get the standard price and big imbalances face a price that punishes the size of the imbalance. That process seems to be prone to generate huge surpluses for the grid operator. Applying the process to wind would be consistent with the title of this post.
10
To rub salt into the wounds, it is not well-reported that wind turbines become significant consumers when the wind dies. Lubrication systems, controls, dehumidifiers, heating, etc all have to run 24/7 and draw power from the grid when the turbine is not generating. Some larger units also need to be “turned over” at regular intervals to protect bearings and avoid blade warping.
Figures for the power consumption of idled turbines are not easy to find but one assessment is +/- 5% of output.
20
Hi All,
Just to underline what TonyfromOz has been telling us here, have a look at a paper I have been fortunate
to have had published recently. Properly, anonymously, peer-reviewed, by real engineers in charge of grid-control (clear from the returned critical comments), this paper’s findings may not be considered as
a mere blog rant. The reference is: Miskelly P 2012 “Wind Farms in eastern Australia – Recent Lessons”,
Energy & Environment Vol 23 No 8 December 2012. It’s available at:
http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/f1734hj8j458n4j7/?p=3367b7f146d24db99c4ffb0a5361ab47&pi=4 .
The paper consists of an analysis of the actual performance of the AEMO-reported wind farms on the
eastern Australian grid, along with a check of the prevailing meteorology when they all drop out,
(criterion: falling to below 2 percent installed capacity simultaneously). That happened 109 times in
calendar year 2010. Geographic-dispersion-smooths-the-output-of-wind-farms on the eastern Australian
grid? Pull the other one. And what was the prevailing meteorology at those times? On each occasion,
a great big high pressure system was camped right across SA, Victoria, NSW and Tasmania, resulting in
little or no wind anywhere in those States at those times, similar to what would have occurred for each
of the scenarios that TonyfromOz reports here for more recent times, I suspect. Increasing the installed
wind generation will not reduce these common-mode failures, it will merely increase the frequency of the
likelihood for grid collapse (that’s a grid controller’s technical term for frequent, widespread,
unpredictable, blackouts). Did someone say here that South Australia is not having problems?
Well, the AEMO admitted in it’s Supply Demand Outlook for SA back in 2011 that dealing with wind
generation in SA is becoming “increasingly challenging”. That’s a polite way of saying that it’s
getting harder to control the SA grid. Installing more wind generation in SA will make it harder still.
Conclusion: wind generation in eastern Australia is not fit-for-purpose: the constant requirement
for fast-acting, constantly-variable output, fossil-fired backup, amounting to some 80% of installed wind
capacity, itself indicates that wind generation cannot provide any effective reduction in CO2 emissions.
Simply, wind generation is a spectacular, colossal failure in eastern Australia, where the wind farms
are spread as they are across what is geographically one of the most far-flung single, interconnected
grids on the planet. The lessons for grid operators on other, smaller grids in other parts of the world
are startlingly clear.
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The colossal Snowtown II is about to come on line.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/south-australia8217s-largest-wind-farm-snowtown-ii-starts-to-take-shape/story-fni6uma6-1226682130481
From the same web site you will see why we need to build things like this to stop all this winter weather
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/steady-rain-lashes-south-australia-but-warmer-weather-in-sight/story-fni6uo1m-1226682340603
We have had above average rainfall for July along with snow (well really hail) and below average temps (front page of the Moronville Messenger AKA Adelaide Advertiser (THE BIG CHILL)…………………..well that is a bit extreme isnt it.
12
Paul,
thanks for this.
How can I get hold of a copy of this? Is all I need to do is just to register at that link to gain access.
21 Wind
FarmsPlants with less than 2% of Capacity on 109 days in a year.The Wind Performance site I utilise lists 28 Wind Plants with a Capacity of 2660MW.
So, umm, let me ballpark a little here, and forgive me for cherry picking just those, umm, ONE HUNDRED AND NINE DAYS at 2%.
So that’s, Hmm!, 139GWH, the same power DELIVERED from Bayswater in err, 52 hours, with all 4 units in operation.
That’s the total output for 109 days from around 6500 Wind Towers.
Again, Paul, thanks for this, and I really would like to access that information.
Tony.
20
Incidentally,
that total Capacity for those 6500 or so wind towers at those 28 Wind Plants has finally reached the same Capacity as Bayswater, 2660MW for Wind and 2640 for Bayswater.
All that Wind Power delivers (power to the grids, and for consumption) only 40% of the power that Bayswater does.
So, with another 16,000+ huge towers, Wind will finally deliver the same power for consumption over a whole year that just the ONE large scale coal fired power plant delivers, only Wind will still be useless, because, while Bayswater delivers 24/7/365, Wind averages barely 7 hours a day averaged across the whole year.
Tony.
30
Some food for TonyfromOz thoughts
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/07/14/2297591/gamechanger-next-generation-of-wind-turbines-storage-are-cheap-reliable-brilliant/
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