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Melbourne Skyline at night…Image: Alfred Glickman
The temperature reached 38C in Melbourne (100F) on Sunday — something it has probably done most summers since 10,000BC.
CitiPower, Powercor and the United Energy spokeswoman Emma Tyner said that as of 9.25pm, about 41,190 homes were without power across those three networks. — Sydney Morning Herald
Now why would that be? Ms Tyner puts a lack of supply in the nicest possible way:
“The extreme heat has significantly increased electricity use and this has resulted in localised power outages,” Ms Tyner said.
It’s not that governments didn’t plan energy policy — it’s the users who wanted too much (i.e your fault.) Though Victorians used to use more power than this. On Sunday, peak electricity demand was 9,124MW, about 13% less than the all time peak of 10,496MW in 2009. (In case you are wondering, Hazelwood (now closed) produced 1600MW or about 25% of Victorian baseload power.)
Mr Armstrong from Ausnet Services (another power company) blamed unreported air conditioners:
“There are a lot fuses blowing in the hot weather and a significant power pull with people having put in air-conditioners they didn’t tell us about,” Mr Armstrong said. — The Age
Who knew you needed to tell your power company when you put in an air conditioner?
Gone are the days when people could willy-nilly run down to Retrovision and just buy an air con.
Ms Tyner and Mr Armstrong may have inadvertently let the cat out of the bag. Perhaps they will get quiet reeducation tomorrow on how to phrase the cause of blackouts. (Aren’t they due to old coal turbines breaking?) 😉
Next, expect people to start saying how normal it is to have blackouts on hot days. “It’s just a part of life.”
If only the same people would say that about hot days.
You know things are serious when Kmart runs out of fans.
A Kmart in Northcote on Sunday has completely sold out of all cooling devices, from fans to air-conditioning units, its duty manager said.
So no willy-nilly fan buying either.
Tonight some people have fans, but no electricity. Others have electricity but no fans.
Others have electricity and fans, but no money. Luckily electricity “only” reached a peak of $3,125 per MWh briefly in Victoria. (Only a few million extra).
Pollies play blackout roulette
Robert Gottleibsen, a week ago:
Welcome to Australia’s deadly game of Melbourne and Sydney blackout roulette. The stakes involve hundreds of millions of dollars of refrigerated food and the operations of thousands of factories and offices who don’t have emergency power contingencies in place.
…Victoria took longer than NSW to wake up but it too has been working hard to reduce the risk of blackouts. For the most part, both states are borrowing ideas from third world countries by getting industry and consumers to cut back on power usage when days are hot. In addition, those organisations with back up power (like phone companies) are being asked to use it so as to cut demand and, if possible, put power back into the grid. Accordingly, highly polluting diesel becomes the saviour.
Could someone teach editors what “record-breaking” means?
Last night the minimum was 22.8C in Melbourne. Tonight was forecast to be 28C. If the Bureau are right, it won’t be close to breaking the record. (UPDATE: It ended up being 27.5C min)
Close to record-breaking heat
While it is not quite a record, Melbourne has come close to the hottest-ever January overnight temperature of 30.6 degrees.
Melbourne has reached that record twice since records began, once in 1902 and again in 2010.
The good news is that the other 1.5 million homes still have electricity. Though the United Energy Outage Map keeps going out itself.
The Ausnet Outage Map has a popup note: due to the large number of outages power may not get restored til Monday morning.
h/t Dave B, Yonniestone,
Blackouts – the New Normal courtesy of Post Modern Science and the Green Blob’s drive to de-industrialise developed economies.
Maybe all those who have clamoured for renewables would now turn their electricity off at the fuse board for a few days so that everyone else and businesses aren’t forced to suffer for their lunacy.
712
No Roger, the watermelons expect everyone but them to switch off power usage – it is the nature of the beast.
632
If it comes to rationing, those responsible for the mess will demand extra quotas, so they can do their vital work.
Their greatest fear is the removal of Government energy policies and the opening up of real competition. They will become superfluous, and Australians will once again enjoy cheap and reliable electricity supplies.
592
Trouble is that it will take a LONG time to get the building of new modern coal fired power stations implemented.
They need to start action on this NOW, but there is no political will to do so.
633
The political will is to destroy this nation by not following the rest of the world and building more and more coal fire power plants. Much of the blame though rests on the voters for continuing to support the respective parties in carrying out the destructive plan. One should not and cannot blame just the ALP and Greens voters.
391
Exactly right. There are always people running around with crazy ideas. It is the electorate’s duty to work out what’s good and what’s not. After all, it is not that hard to navigate to JoNova and other skeptical blogs. And it’s not that hard to listen to skeptics at parties. But many in the electorate will not allow themselves doubt even when the most glaring of lies and inaccuracies are exposed. It is very eerie watching a mass delusion working its way through the populace.
191
My wife doesn’t want to believe our academics, scientists, bureaucrats & politicians would lie to us, or be dishonest. The whole idea is too upsetting to her.
Thus she becomes very crabby when she hears anyone suggesting it is happen, or when there is any discussion of the subject. She hates to believe it, but even with her eyes & ears tightly closed, the truth is seeping through.
I believe she has a lot of mates in the population, who are fighting like hell from believing what is becoming obvious to any intelligent person. The backlash when they are forced to admit the truth will be frightening.
271
I wouldn’t stake real money on a change of gov. in either Vic or SA. How can people be wilfully blind when it is they, themselves, who suffer the cost and unreliability of such a basic necessity.
141
Would a change of government get us anywhere? I have asked the Vic Libs for a clear statement of what their committments are in regard to power supply. So far nada. On their web site I can only find non specific weasel words
41
Turnbull and the LW MSM are to blame .
Turnbull planned all of this…it’s what he whiteanted Tony Abbott for-to steal the power to do the bidding of the UN global Socialists…make himself an international hero by forcing Australia to leave its resources in the ground as per The Green Paradox by Hans Werner Sinn.
IMO…to the delight of Bloomberg and other financial behemoths and Australian big biz…all making squillions out of the heist of the millennium that sucks billions straight out of the pockets of Australia’s poor and middle-income earners …straight into the coffers of the already uber-rich carpetbaggers…Turnbull politically assassinated TA so he…hero of Goldman Sachs et al could ratify the Paris Accord so Australia would be forced to subsidize more and more intermittents to make the whole thing unstoppable.
Turnbull caused the subsidy rush within weeks of the death of the former AEMO boss who had expressed his opinion/alarm that the RE subsidies could have only one outcome…system collapse.
Turnbull then hired as AEMO boss a foreign national whose passionately-held CAGW/RE opinions were identical to Labor’s…diametrically opposed to those that LNP voted for….opinions spelt out immediately on her arrival…it’s why he hired her IMO.
Now Turnbull’s buoyed by the fact that MSM assures him that his energy problem’s ‘sorted’…so he goes to ground …no pesky questions asked of him…while Australians endure blackouts and AEMO’s Zibelman says we need more wind and solar like SA….and she prefers we double the emissions cuts.
What sort of pseudo fake democracy lets a creature like Turnbull sleepwalk the country to energy insecurity…lets him force them to ditch everything that works?
What sort of lily-livered lemming MPs betray their constituents by allowing themselves to be led by a GreenLabor mole squatting in the Liberal party…implementing the policies of their political opponents…the very policies the LNP expressly voted against?
Turnbull’s the only Western leader who’s deliberately doing terrible harm to his country…the only one who…step by step…is depriving his country of reliable baseload power.
No other country that hasn’t got huge run of the river hydro or nuclear power is being forced to burn all its bridges relentlessly…step by step…. to rely on weather-dependent intermittents.
And now Turnbull’s found the NEG that he asked ESB to produce is a great Trojan horse for him …ambiguous enough to keep everyone guessing …even though it spells out that it’s to facilitate intermittents…that it will make things impossible for coal plants [as AEMC says], and coal and gas will be exiting the market.
The NEG sets in concrete big increases in intermittents, batteries and pumped hydro [all probably SUBSIDISED]…and rooftop solar ‘orchestrated’ in virtual power plants by AEMO and other authorities…and the certain demise of coal with no prospect of any HELE plants being built.
Turnbull’s a walking LIE IMO.
51
Blackouts have immediate impact and represent something the people will directly understand. We need a few more blackouts on a more extensive scale and then the politicos will be obliged to do something else they will have a fullscale revolt on their hands and will no longer be elected.
231
Three new nuclear plants would settle everyone down. No coal emissions,not that it’s a real problem. Plenty of reliable inexpensive energy.
It wouldn’t make everyone happy but if you ignore the small minority in the same way that the majority are being ignored they’ll go away. Maybe they will demonstrate their displeasure by emigrating to a sh@thole and enjoy life in the dark. They wouldn’t even need weight watchers any longer!
281
“No coal emissions, not that it’s a real problem. “
Sorry, but “no more CO2 emissions” would be a REAL problem for the world.
210
More to the point, Andy, is that the perpetrators of this disaster should be top of the queue for blackouts, i.e., Parliament House and government offices. And no cheating by them by installing emergency sources of power.
Let them suffer the consequences of their own stupidity, first hand!
230
Any new coal fired power stations will take between 5-10 yrs to completely build..( as per an experienced engineer)…and overseas builders…!
Sooooo people we are in for a “long haul” with many periods of darkness !
The Camping stores must be rubbing their hands together….lol
60
Five years if absolutely everything goes right at the first attempt, and invariably that just wouldn’t happen.
It would be closer to ten years at best from the decision being made, considering that it would take a while for any politician to actually come out and have the discussion in the first place, and even then, they would have to be forced kicking and screaming into that discussion.
It’s already too late in a few cases to get viable replacements for some old existing plants.
Bayswater and Mt Piper have earlier proposals in place and that could be the best bet, to revive them, and in the case of Bayswater well, their owners, AGL are ‘getting out of coal’ doncha know!
Queensland, well that was just plain blind luck that they got built, those four SuperCritical plants, 6 Units in all at Milmerran, Tarong North, Kogan Creek, and Callide C. They were already well under way before all this CO2 thing started, and luckily, there’s no way on G0d’$ Earth they will be closed down any time prior to 2040/50 at the soonest, no matter what anyone says. All four of them would have been originally approved in the mid to late 1990s. Callide C opened in 2001. Milmerran in 2002. Tarong North opened in 2003, and construction on that started in 1999, so four years from the turning of the first sod to power delivery, and that’s just the construction phase, after years of getting it together first. Similar for Kogan Creek, opened in 2007 after construction began in 2004.
I might suggest that now, it would take longer, so ten years would probably be best guess.
It has to reach desperation point (for politicians) first before the discussion even begins, and then ten years from that point.
Tony.
210
Financing them will have to be through local bond issues. The World Bank won’t finance any coal projects.
Without finance, from somewhere, you won’t be able to return to cheap coal.
40
Am I permitted to use a recently much used phrase: “DRAIN THE SWAMP”.
331
No because we do not have anyone like Trump here – not even close.
151
Sorry Ted that was friendly fire and an extra large thumb that gave you the red thumb .
42
I am with Ted.
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
100
The watermelons in Northcote clearly responded to warmer conditions by buying up big on fans at their local Kmart. Oh well, it will be a big topic of conversation all round the public service offices in Melbourne then, won’t it?
40
I’m personally a bit dissapointed they werent out shopping for fair trade recycled paper hand fans. I mean really, the carbon footprint of an imported fan, the mind boggles.
80
Yes, this is what victory looks like for radical environmentalists and left leaning politicians. The gradual erosion of modern society and all its services that keep up safe, comfortable and well fed. Somehow the green mob believe the environment will be much better off once 7.5 billion people have to scrounge every bit of living nutrition to feed themselves, seek every scrap of wood or other fuel to create energy and be in perpetual conflict with the other 7.4999 billion people who are suddenly all in the same boat. What could go wrong?
331
Read my post above. The LNP voters are just as just as much at fault.
170
I voted for the Abbott led Lib’s in the previous election ..
I DID NOT vote for the Turnbull Party last election.
More people need to wake up to the destruction of rational society brought about by this leftist bent that has infiltrated the 2 major parties.
631
As I said a number of times, most of Australia hate conservationism and prefers socialism, be it mild (LNP), heavy (ALP) or extreme (Greens). Australia will have to learn the hard way why socialism is a catastrophic failure. Unfortunately there is no other way.
200
Conservatism? I think most people like at least some conservationism.
20
Conservatism? I think most people like at least some conservationism. 🙂
10
The bulk of Australians dont really give it much thought. They drag themselves to the polls only because it mandatory and they may get fined. Politics and life in general is just something that happens to them, not something that results from their actions.
40
It’s the same in the UK. All three main parties are full of socialists.
70
“What could go wrong?” Nothing. For Action T4 will be ready to ride.
50
For those who dont know, T4 was the infamous Nazi program of killing off the metally ill, the infirm and some elederly….or as they nazis put it “life unworthy of life”
In the green blobs case ( the green blob is basically nazism with a green wrapper ) killing electricity will increase the death rate of all humanity in this country. This is what they want.
When you see some of the comments by the Elite, their eco-genocidal ramblings make a lot more sense when viewed through the correct lense of human-hating occultists. From what I have read this far, the Elite would see reduction of humanity to a “benevolent” level with the Elite at the top of the pile, and 500 million slaves….
52
Most of the Green Blob are just people trying to pay off mortgages the easiest way they can. Not a death cult, just lazy and self interested.
110
What a horrible, but totally correct thing to say about these dear snowflakes.
10
This is endemic of both state and federal governments; everything (not just energy) comes at horrendous cost and unreliable outcomes.
170
I don’t blame the Green Blob. They are doing what they are supposed to do, try and convert the heathen.
It’s the brain dead politicians that are to blame 100%. Those in a position of authority, who have (supposedly) the best advisers money can buy, who are supposed to look into a subject from all angles, hear all sides of a matter, and decide if it’s best to leave things as they are. It’s the politicians who should be tared and feathered and paraded around the town square with a sign around their neck “I’m stupid”.
220
If pollies are 100% wrong, the brain dead voters are 100% responsible. People need to actively take part, tick an alternate box, or they get what they asked for — one party machine or another.
Mind you, they also need to demand that if we have a state funded broadcaster it’s role is to interview and allow time for alternative pollies (on both sides) so the people can decide. At the moment the ABC starves any semi-sensible libertarian/right/ conservative candidates. This is probably why Turnbull and Co love the ABC as is — it helps them put down competition from the right. The ABC will only promote “deplorable” mockable alternatives, like One Nation, which the ABC didn’t consider a threat.
250
Jo, next time you’re walking through the major shopping centre in your area, stop and have a good look at who these voters are. I suspect many have never worked a day in their life, or had an original thought.
I feel more sorry for how lost those souls are, not blame them for not knowing the lies and deceit being perpetrated upon them by those in positions of power.
It is the politicians who should be sorting the wheat from the chaff, who should be running the nation on behalf of everybody. Instead they feed themselves with money and power, and feed the rest of us with deceit.
40
No doubt we require bankruptcies and closures on a large scale before ANY of our political soothsayers do ANYTHING.
It is going to take five years to get out of this mess when something happens.
For all those carbon dioxide “we are all doomed” believers, turn off their air-con. Seeming to get cool will not make it cooler.
100
Once you are at the “bankruptcies and closures on a large scale”, where businesses have fled, people unemployed, tax incomes plummeting to zero…
It will take a miracle to fund the building of reliable power sources.
Finally bringing the green dream of civilizations’ commoners cascading back to serfdom and abject fealty.
Where and when all of the rich elitists will flee to a richer city with reliable power.
When the populace finally get riled up, consider passing a law allowing prosecution and pursuit of the scammers.
30
Well, they have been at it in SA for a few years now and they just seem to be plowing down the same path.
10
Karma in action. Unless we change direction on the war on coal fired power stations, the next stop will be daily earth hours beoming earth days and eventually looking like North Korea.
Is it too late to change direction?
First we need to stop closure of any more coal fired power stations.
Then we need to commission new supercritical ones to replace the ageing ones.
There is no other cost effective short term solution.
New generation nuclear reactors to be planned and commissioned over next 10 – 20 years.
No more wind or solar for base load.
End of story.
81
Marvelous. The Australian green energy crash test dummy crashing again.
At least its only summer heat, not killing winter cold like will eventually happen in the UK.
280
Yes but the UK have plans to build up to 19GW of new nuclear power capacity so there’s no problem there due to power shortages. Like the rest of the world outside of Australia, countries live in the real world and recognise the absolute necessity of building new coal and/or nuclear power plants. Only Australians believe we don’t need them and have plans to destroy what coal fired power plants we do have without replacing them. Stupid is as stupid does. It also means we need to suffer much more pain by way of many more blackouts before Australians wake up and play catch-up with the rest of the world.
270
PeterS:
Those nuclear plants will be a long time coming in the UK, and depend on supplying electricity at (roughly) twice the current wholesale rate. There will be blackouts long before they are built. The UK would be better off frakking and using the gas.
220
I see. Well at least they do have plans to build them. We have nothing but a plan to destroy our existing coal fired plants and not replace them with any form of base load power plant. I’m still waiting for Turnbull and Shorten to explain to the whole of Australia why they are deliberately encouraging such a plan of destruction.
190
True, Graeme, if only anyone was building gas generation, but they aren’t because the economics don’t add up. The government has so distorted the electricity market that there is too much risk for anyone to commit to building new gas generation. Permission was granted for a new plant at Trafford but construction has been delayed and may never happen.
30
My background is in electronics – I know nothing of atomic energy – but wonder why new new reactors are becoming dearer to build not cheaper.
They have been building multiple redundancy into aircraft for decades, glass instrument panels are now available in ultra-light aircraft because they are so cheap. Surely there are big savings in instrumentation and better machines should make the concrete and steel part cheaper as well.
Just wondering.
50
Two big costs for a new Nuclear power plant are:
1. Regulation and obtaining a social licence. Getting over that hurdle can take decades.
2. No benefits of scale (at least for far). Each new power station incorporates new technologies. Hence all the development costs are repeated over and over.
The idea of small modular reactors is to standarise the design and make it in a factory, then deliver to site. A large Nuclear power plant can be made up of multiple small modular units.
The nuclear reactor on the new USS Gerald Ford might be the way to go. It is said to produce 700MW and not need refuelling for the life of the ship (say 40 years). Ford has 2 A1B reactors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A1B_reactor
60
Regulation, regulation, regulation (in other words, excessive regulation).
10
PB
That reminds me of the “Bow your head with deep respect and genuflect, genuflect, genuflect” from Tom Lehrer’s Vatican Rag.
Maybe scope to rejig it as the “Electricity Rag”?
10
Except Phil, that regulation in terms of safety really is paramount. If anything the safety procedures and instrumentation, backup systems etc cost many times more than the actual reactor itself. I take it you do want lead and polypropyline blocks to from the effect of Alpha, Beta and Gamma radiation?
I do wish however that they’d just get on with it!
20
Clearly, the intermediate goal is to condition the citizens to the idea that everything must be done by the permission of the central authority. If the permission was not granted, for whatever reason, each is to stop and do nothing. You are not even to voice what you think about such a requirement. You are to submit to a “mother may I” governance as if you are children incapable of thinking through the difference between want, need, and “everyone else is doing it!” Then choosing for your self what is best for you.
Once you submit, you become indistinguishable from being a slave to the state. Which is merely the next step on the path to the destruction of technological civilization. Heads, they win. Tails, you loose.
He who is free, never submits. He who submits, was never free. Stay free!
480
Quite so, the issue is power. For some, most of us in fact, that is electricity. For others it is their control and our submission, electricity be damned.
190
Do you remember not so long ago the Russian bread lines? We here in the west were amazed to see lines of people waiting to buy bread from a shop with bread who weren’t allowed to sell it, because they had already filled their quota for the day. So the people lined up and stayed there until tomorrow in order to be up the front of the line to buy bread tomorrow.
Do a Google search if you’re unfamiliar with this concept.
160
Regulated markets always fail to serve the consumer. The solution to failure from the regulators is always want more regulation.
300
I wonder when it becomes mandatory to list all electrical appliances in a home and notify the power companies when each one is going to be used. There will be a booking system that needs to be completed at least one month in advance if you want to turn on a fan and two months for an air-conditioner. Then will come the rule that appliances cannot be used between certain hours and smart meters will monitor all activity.
311
The technical solution will be to install Smart Meters, like in the UK. With soaring energy costs consumers will want to make sure none of their electricity or gas is wasted. Electricity companies will be able to see instantly what is being used. If necessary they can more localize the power cuts to avoid the most vulnerable.
Of course, people would soon see the real solution – abandon policies to “save the planet“, or rather give the Australian politicians the opportunity to be classed alongside Donald Trump as climate deniers.
90
We already have these so-called smart meters. They were supposed to have connectivity such that you can monitor usage in real time via WiFi. We don’t have this and I don’t know how many do. Logging onto a flaky website doesn’t give you much information.
The idea of these meters was mainly so that power companies could monitor and cut power. Isn’t that great? Rather than have abundant, cheap and reliable power, we now have cludges to accommodate scarce, expensive and unreliable power.
How far away are we from being a third world country?
200
The real idea behind SMART metres is to fool people into thinking they can change home energy usage patterns to reduce energy costs by avoiding peak energy cost times – if everyone changes their home consumption to an off-peak time then it suddenly becomes a peak time as well.
110
There has been some government, or whatever, discussion about removing tariffs altogether. One price throughout the day and night. I vaguely recollect the reason touted for this is due to many people not getting the best deals from suppliers.
20
Smart meters are intended to bring in different tariffs at different times to shift demand by raising peak time prices by 2 or 3 times. This would offset the lack of generating capacity.
40
The two bob in the slot was for reticulated town [coal] gas as I recall. But it isn’t a big stretch to see it for electricity.
10
Park electric bbqs work that way
10
They could always revert to the old “two bob in the slot” type.
Would give a direct indication of cost too.
20
That will be pretty much how the virtual power plants AEMO and the RE cult want Australians to submit to-will work it seems to me.
You…the ‘prosumer’…will have the type of smart meter and batteries they want you to have so they can ‘orchestrate’ your ‘demand’ and time shifts….and in the end, IMO so they can coerce you into whatever it is they want you to do….and if they want you to upgrade your meter every now and then you’ll have to.
People think going rooftop Solar means independence but IMO it’s the opposite. Once you get the smart meter they’re monitoring you.
AEMO want as many of us as possible to spend the $20-30k on rooftop solar+inverters and battery banks[ because probably 3 will be needed per household], so they can control us and our demand but AEMO admitted a few weeks ago they have no idea how they’ll control or know from moment to moment what the aggregate of rooftop solar’s doing…or what it amounts to…and that if they can’t find a way to control it…they WILL lose control of the grid.
Seems to me our MPs should be shutting down the installations until AEMO DOES find a way to know how to control it to prevent the apocalypse but there’s not been a word about it from them or anyone in the MSM.
All of that uncontrolled and uncounted rooftop solar …with inverters…also brings real cyber security risks apparently.
10
Has anyone checked to see if the Russians hacked the grid systems….
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/910124/Russia-attack-UK-Gavin-Williamson-Defence-Secretary-infrastructure-power-plant-energy-hack
“Next, expect people to start saying how normal it is to have blackouts on hot days. “It’s just a part of life.””
Germans are being told the same thing: http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/26/unstable-green-power-grids-german-ard-television-tells-citizens-to-start-getting-used-to-blackouts/
180
It’s going to be a hacker’s wet dream…and apparently the US has noticed a lot of chatter about it being imminent there.
The RE cult brags that their intermittents are more reliable ultimately because of their dispersion and the small size of installations, but the connections needed and unprecedented complexity of the management of it all to allow for vagaries of weather absolutely negates that claimed advantage.
20
Frustrated?
All problems will evaporate once we are lodged in smart spaces full of smart devices in smart mini-cities. Our main uncertainty: will we update our smart globalist-green opinions by pressing the Lisa or Karl or Koshie button today?
People, Sustainable Development wants all this frustration and tension. That’s what Davos is for. They could be just skiing, tanning, relaxing, sacrificing goats…but there’s a pesky middle class to kill off. That’s most of us.
170
Yes but the pesky middle class keeps on voting for the pesky major parties so what else does one expect? Certainly not a different result. What’s the definition of insanity again?
200
I had a conversation with a cabbie who was a deep thinker.
He could see that all the main parties were basically toxic.
Problem – no alternative to vote for.
His thoughts were if Bernardi was australia wide, it might help.
I suggested an informal vote to hamstring parliament, it might be the only way to exclude the main parties from power.
Now you can understand why the Elite made voting compulsory – people dont think ( generally ) and are afraid of actually playing rough with incompetent and/or Collaborator pollies….
Its not personal…its just Democracy. I used the example of as a parent having sometimes to implement some tough love to swing things around, how should childish pollies be any different? If they have adbicated their actual paid job for that of “me too” spinelsss jellyfish, well…..electoral road kill it is.
The main thing is that whether people like it or not, the best solution as I see it is the voters creating some form of fracture point within the political establishment, that the globalists who seem to control all major parties, cant get past without some form of drastic engineered event.
10
An informal vote on any large scale will not be any more than a nuisance to the major parties. It is the formal votes only that are used to decide the result.The best outcome of a large informal vote would be to make them realise that they are NOT popular, but as long as they win the vote it will not really concern them. I believe we need right of recall legislation and a “None of the above” option on the ballot before we can claim to have anything like a true democratic electoral process in Australia.
40
There are limited options when people are forced by law to vote to maintain what appears to be a globalist duopoly.
In many ways its no better ( and as just as unbelievebale ) as places like Zimbabwe, when Mugabe got 99.2% of the vote….every time…..
I guess Bernadi has a real shot if he could field candidates nationally. One Nation wont get much showing I’d think as people are wary fo them, perhaps not in QLD though.
One problem is that voters are scared about actually voting away from the main parties…kind of like a pavlovian style response, a nation-wide Stockholm Syndrome.
I guess if nothing changes, the average non-thinking voter will get a hard slap to the side of the head they probably richly deserve. Oh well..there is always Home and Away to watch to forget your troubles….
00
Destroyer D69:
You are forgetting the money they get for each formal vote. They get nothing for an informal vote, and on a large scale it could cost them millions. Even now I expect the major praties Treasurers regret the average 5% informal vote.
A “don’t vote for the bastards” campaign would give them sleepless nights and lead to hard words about current policies.
20
Sorry,
for praties read parties, I think.
00
emearG,
That’s right all.
orrys No.
10
A bit Freudian there Graeme. 🙂
I’ve been thinking how a “pox on both your parties” vote is the best protest. The AEC guy will throw it in the Informal tray but scrutineers of both parties will pick it up in case they can make the case that it really was a vote for their party, ergo both parties will get the message. Done en mass it might prompt thought. But I doubt it.
00
In the spirit of Pointman’s “The Pratties” your message understood
10
Absolutely true. It depends on whether they prefer the power of government or the cash to play with….
00
Andy Pattullo. Nice summary in four sentences.
Yes, when the left gains power things quickly start to go wrong in government and society. California once our best state in everything from agriculture, modern industry, water resources management, aircraft design and manufacturing, state university system, etc., etc.,started going bad in the 60’s and has continued until the present. And the culture of the left in California in California also went from one of the best to the most base, vile, ungodly, and repressive in America. I don’t know what their future holds but it seems the left has a strangle hold on the people of California. Of course, there are millions of good and decent people in California, however, they are in the minority. The leftists leadership in California are racing to the renewable energy disasters that you are describing.
290
Assuming you are in one of the other 49 Leonard, write to Jerry Brown offering assistance for Calexit. You must excise the cancer.
40
Good idea Hanrahan. He might be dumb enough to have such things encourage him.
00
The fact is black-outs kill people. If anyone takes the time to look at this, you will be able to
directly show people have died because of the Greens and their renewable schemes.
171
What impact will this have on Tesla sales?
80
None whatsoever, they run on pixie dust just like SA’s energy generators. It will be the same for Frydenborg’s (the borg) electric cars that he plans will take over Australia.
150
Went past Gundagai charhging station, after 8 visits, still havent seen one of these mytical tesla beasts…do they exist, or are they as elusive as lepricauns and a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow?
60
rarely sighted outside of the inner city Latte belt, no point virtue signalling to people who dont give a rats.
30
Yes…I have this mental image of a farmer with yapping dogs and ute full of hay or other stuff, crossing a slightly flooded creek and a loud *bang* as the water hits the battery terminals….
Or driving around in extreme heat in a bushfire when the ground is 60-80C hot in spots due to fire activity…batteries dont like being hot…diesels, however…..
Yep….cant see it working….
20
I live on the east coast USA.
The other day I was behind a Tesla with California plates.
No doubt shipped east on the wings of previously sequestered carbon.
The road to Heck is paved with virtue signaling.
90
So the official excuse is faulty equipment and overheating fuses and the power company say it’s from secret air conditioning.
And we reckon it’s from lack of baseload generation, ahh who could have predicted if you closed down Hazelwood which was a quarter of our supply it would lead to blackouts in the future?
Watch the blame game begin but also watch the green and laboral response .
240
Morning Robert,
In case you’re interested, here’s the ABC’s version of the truth this morning:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/melbourne-heat-brings-hottest-night-of-summer,-blackouts/9369228
Cheers,
Dave B
70
Seen it but had a laughing fit at the start , thanks David I have something to cheer me up on down days .
10
It’s good that there will be compensation coming.
About the twelfth of never.
00
Q. Who pays the compensation?
A. The power companies, and therefore the purchasers of electricity.
It is just a tax by another name. Another signal of a defective system, defective policy, defective government. A government where other people’s money is your plaything.
80
Dont worry – Jon Faine was all over it this morning – first up on breakfast radio – being very careful to point out it was not due to a lack of supply – but local network overloads tripping transformers. Just in case anyone thought it was a problem of generation (after all – those photovoltaics work wonderfully well overnight! sarc) – but I would love to see what would happen if it was any other day than a Sunday! I strongly suspect the main cause was all those thousands of Victorians returning from their 3 day long weekend or the beach to hot houses and immediatly turning on what aircon they had.
50
I can no longer listen to even a syllable of Faine’s sanctimonious posturing; you’ll hear nothing veridical from him, it’s all just sheer unrelieved claptrap and slime.
30
But …but … Didn’t Julia blame gold plating of networks for price rises, NOT the carbon tax? Time labor was consistent with the excuses.
20
We should blame Willis Carrier for inventing and promoting air conditioning in homes and buildings.
40
‘Melbourne has reached that record twice since records began, once in 1902 and again in 2010.’
I’m putting it down to a Gleissberg and blocking highs, if nobody has any better ideas then I’ll run with it.
30
el gordo:
No! No! Once the 2017 figures are adjusted they will show that Melbourne has got hotter in the last 115 years.
120
* chuckle *
A southerly buster is expected around 6 pm and temps will drop 10 degrees, and it’ll remain unseasonably mild for a few days.
There is bound to be at least one old Melburnian who remembers this type of weather back in the days of his misspent youth. BoM is tight lipped on the cause of this apparent anomaly.
60
This is not an anomally – its summer – try the week of 40+ we had in 2009
40
The minimum for the 24hr period is likely to be this evening after a cool change arrives but the lowest overnight temperature was 28.2C at 6:30am, well short of the highest recorded minimum temperature for Melbourne Regional Office of 30.5C on Jan 1, 1902.
According to notrickszone Germans are being told to get used to blackouts.
The current government policy is to cut CO2 emissions but not as far or as fast as the opposition propose, in other words to ‘save the planet’ — but only a little bit.
Clearly Turnbull & Co. don’t even believe their own rhetoric.
161
Oops that should be Feb 1, 1902.
60
The latest shows Melbourne minimum temp at Olympic Park at 27.8C at 6:27am. I presume that that temp will become the minimum as temps appear to be rising again.
Present status
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml?ref=hdr
According to the BoM, the highest min for Jan was 28.8C in 1997 (the highest min temp was 30.5C in 1902).
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_086071_All.shtml
In Jan, 1908, Melbourne had 5 consecutive +40C days which were preceded by a 39.9C. The average max mean for that
month was 31.0C (compared to 27.4C to date this year). I predict it won’t even make the top 10% of hottest Jans.
130
All this fuss about heatwaves in Melbourne & Adelaide of late. On the global scale who would have believed that January 2018 is the 2nd coolest month since July 2015, ie the 2nd coolest month in the last 30 months. The Weatherbell Global Temp Anomaly Map today has the Global Temp Anomaly for January 2018 as +0.266 degrees C. During the past 30 months it peaked at +0.719 in Feb 2016 (peak of the 2015/2016 El Nino event). We are in a mild La Nina and I suspect that the Global Temp will keep dropping during the first half of 2018. One thing is for sure – the MSM will keep this “cool news” very silent unlike the “hot 2015/2016 El Nino event news”.
50
Have just read through the first 22 comments; All have something unique to point to and I am left wondering why this range of discussion is not seen in the public media?
For some reason I have a feeling that the election of Trump, flawed as he may have seemed at the time, was due to public reaction to the chronic misinformation fed out of the politico_media conglomerate.
There is hope for the future whilever free speech can be practiced and it seems to be happening here.
KK
260
It is being discussed in the public media, and most commenters there are saying the same things as are being said here. This morning Graham Richardson tartly commented about SA’s energy position, and even an article on whale sharks attracted public derision when CSIRO researchers briefly mentioned global warming. The message IS getting through, but it needs to be constantly hammered by simply presenting facts and data. I would encourage the folks here to actively involve themselves in the public media.
140
Thanks for that uplifting bit of background news.
Most of what prompted my comment was an item on radio yesterday about Global Warming. The reader was on a science program and the main point was that atmospheric temperatures were rising so fast that the human body would not be able to cope anymore. The killer was that because temperature had risen over India, the field workers harvesting crops had to cut back on their hours and the country’s productivity had been reduced by the equivalent of 400,000 workers.
Absolute scientific claptrap.
And presumably this was all put out from our universities, UNSW featured heavily, with a straight face
The fact that there is NO scientific basis for the concept of Man Made Global Warming is never mentioned on radio just constant bombardment of the global warming scam.
KK
140
After the war thousands of fair skinned Europeans came to Australia, a much hotter clime than they left and did what work was available. Many Italians, not the biggest, strongest men when they stepped off the boat, came to the cane fields in Nth Qld. Both they and the industry thrived. The cane was cut manually and the mills tried to finish their crush before the monsoons hit, but there were some hot months before that. They didn’t die from a sudden change in average temperature.
The Italians did so well they bought the farms. Those that did then helped out their countrymen so cane towns all became “Little Italys”.
Our tradies in the north are still mostly whites, they start early, pace themselves and know to keep hydrated. They manage OK.
70
I have it recorded from the 7 News last night….
“Every second house is without power in Chelsea..”
Now, why would that be?
140
It’s gotta be Trump & that Paris thingy!
50
“Every second house”
Discrimination!
40
I think we are going to have odds and evens power, a bit like refuelling day allocations when we had petrol strikes.
20
And if you do have power you will pay, until you are “re-educated” to tolerate the heat by sitting in a paddling pool. (Is it ok to use water like that?)
SA wholesale price yesterday $265/MWhr (26 cents/KWhr); Vic $247; NSW $80; Qld $69/MWhr (6.9 cents/KWhr).
SA average price Jan 1-28 $169; Vic $139; NSW & Qld $75/MWhr.
We are being screwed.
Why aren’t journalists hounding energy ministers for answers?
Why aren’t energy ministers hounding electricity suppliers?
160
You are all sadly misunderstanding what happened last night in the glorious republic of Victoriastan, there were no blackouts at all just some efficiency targets that were met so please desist with the misinformation campaign or you will all get a visit from the local union officials who have ways of making you see the truth ..
211
The sad part is a lot of people don’t need to receive such a visit because they are still asleep as to what’s really happening.
130
I had a small problem with a union rep some years ago.Join union or you don’t work.My sense of individualism precluded me from conforming. Issue was resolved later that week in local pub where yours truly put the said official on his ar.e!!
120
GM
For future use maybe
“What utter Liberal (_i_)kissing Tripe.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2018/01/blowout-213.html#comment-1150888
Now that is a sign I don’t remember seeing before
20
Gotta try that
(_i_) looks harmless enough.
(°^°)
10
Just seen the suggestion to use “!” rather than “i”
00
That might be going a bit too far.
00
Cheeky.
00
The Premier of Victoria, John Setka, will stitch you up better than Shorten’s thugs stitched up Bob Kernohan.
30
I heard on ABC news that big fuses blew at the sub-stations.
50
To go with the ones already blown in Canberra?
60
That would be heads of the greenies exploding, as back burning is being one again to reduce the bush fire risk….
20
Good grief you Aussies. Give you an inch and you’ll take a mile. Not reporting air condiitioner use to the power co is obviously just the beginning of your intransigence.
Tomorrow will be a failure to report that new electric kettle. Then it will be those energy guzzling coffee making machines. Then that new fridge and then Those new security lights. The power companies need to make an example of you all in order to reduce your catastrophic use of planet destroying energy.
Big fines and prison sentences seem to be in order for those who consume too much power or failing that energy ration cards. Get a grip and stop blaming the power companies for not having any power
Tonyb
311
By coincidence my electric kettle stopped working this morning. Time to buy a new one (and report same)? If I pay cash they won’t be able to trace me! Fortunately I have a backup ordinary kettle and my gas stove to make coffee with. This is the only power failure I’ve experienced so far this summer here in Adelaide. I’m rather disappointed!
50
All those who have electric cars should also be report to Big Brother. Can anyone see the sad irony of it all yet, and where Australia is heading?
91
“Big fines and prison sentences” for the pollies and bureaucrats who created, and still support, this nonsense, would be more productive!
90
One of the side effects of 9/11 ( does anyone still remeber that? ) is most corporations became paranoid about security for thier execs and workers. I recall having to go into the basement of our building in the UK to be collected, lest we be ambushed in the street. Not sure how taking out people who worked for a finanacial servies company was going to create a problem , but there you go.
What might happen ( and I hope it doesnt… ) is that power company execs might become physically at risk if things get really dire.
If people cant make a dent in the thick-headed govt, they will go for the next easiest high value target.
00
Please Mr Andrews, I want some more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex2r86G0sdc
00
As well as our house in Melbourne, we also have a house (Suburban house, not apartment) in a SE Asian country which is used by my father-in-law. NEVER had a power failure despite horrendous lightning storms more than weekly, neighbours all steadily installing aircon – often five or six units to a house. Also good safe water in abundant cheap supply never rationed (and water mains replaced last year with only a few minutes water interruption). Power and water costs a fraction of what they are here – last month power bill was RM51 or A$17 and water RM6 or A$2 – all checked and paid online.
Who is the third world country?
180
But Oz—esp. SA and Victoria—are not third world; they are second world, which, pretty much by definition, gives them no future.
70
pretty easy to have abundant water when it rains most afternoons 🙂
30
“State Energy Minister Lil D’Ambrosio wrote on Twitter last night: “I know power outages are incredibly frustrating, but there was sufficient energy supply available in Victoria.“
According to reneweconomy last night Victoria was producing around 1000mw less than demand so her tweet was an outright lie. This morning we are still about 500 mw down and relying on other states to prop us up.
230
Ken we did have a lack of reserve notice for yesterday but it was for the afternoon and your right this is just damage control out of the south Australia play book.
100
Robert,
This is the notice from yesterday.
Issued at 1043 hrs.
From 1600 hrs to 1730 hrs on 28/01/2018.
The contingency capacity reserve required is 1120 MW.
The minimum reserve available is 1015 MW.
I imagine this would be to compensate for
the solars shutting down and not having a clue
about how much wind would be blowing.
God help us.
20
Lily “renewables will put downward pressure on power prices” D’Ambrosio is pretty clueless, so you can expect her to blurt out just about anything.
100
There are lies, and socialist lies. Socialist lies = truth.
10
I wonder if Mr Armstrong has ever walked into a Bunnings store in late spring to see the pallets of portable air-conditioners one day that are gone the next. Likewise been at an ALDI store on the morning they have their portable air-conditioners on special buys. For those who have not experienced an ALDI special buy day when a hot product is released they are missing an interesting spectacle as the herd squeezes through all the entry points. Then there are all the online stores that must move tens of thousands of new portable air-conditioners every year.
In fact it would not be challenging to estimate the increase in air-condition demand based on sales of these items. As heavy industry closes down the air-conditioning demand dominates peak demand so it becomes of increasing importance.
Actually the reason for the load shedding in Melbourne city last night was so Roger and Marin could perform in air-conditioned comfort for their A-list audience; also in air-conditioned comfort. So much for an outdoor tournament.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/australian-open-2018-open-and-shut-roof-closed-for-final-20180128-h0pmzt.html
When it comes to load shedding it is not hard to see where priorities are.
170
Some of the comments in The Age this morning were fuuny. I made one and kept myself fairly nice, then I ket reading and the next one said “….tell them about my air conditioner!! what a load of bollocks!!” OK then, I could have been a bit more direct.
This report yuor a/c stuff reminds me of our local weirdo postmaster who reckons we have to register who is living at our house to get the mail delivered correctly. The numpty version of where are your papers!! People get weird ideas.
60
That sounds like our weirdo numpty postmaster…he the hairy wonder. We had the same nonsense and legitimate mail sent back…thought the PO was supposed to hang on to the mail for 30 days? It is up to the residents at that address to ‘return to sender’ before that time is up.
Perhaps we are talking of the same person?
30
I suspect we are Annie. Are you lining up for the micro-grid?
10
No way. Working out how to cope with the regress group cum shire ‘climate council’ (who seem to be a lot of the same people) on that one…
Considering the weather in the long, cold, foggy winter we get around here I can’t see it being much use really, and probably a financial burden to everyone. What think you?
00
The creeping green like that gets a severe mention in Elizabeth Nickson’s “Ecofascists”
10
Turning off the air-conditioner is like putting progress in reverse:
How Air-Conditioning Conquered America (Even the Pacific Northwest)
“It enabled the sweeping postwar development of the South, where all new single-family homes today include central air.
In automobiles, it made the commutes between air-conditioned homes and air-conditioned offices possible.
In the Southwest, its arrival facilitated new methods of rapid construction, replacing traditional building designs that once naturally withstood the region’s desert climate.
Parts of the United States whose historical development never depended on air-conditioning increasingly resemble the regions whose growth wouldn’t have been possible without it.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/upshot/the-all-conquering-air-conditioner.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1
* * *
Sept 8, 2017: Victorians will be paid to turn off power during extreme heat this summer
In Victoria, residents will this summer be paid to turn off their air conditioners during extreme heat or at times of peak power demand in an attempt to avoid blackouts.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/09/08/21/27/victorians-paid-to-turn-off-power-in-extreme-heat-summer
~ ~ ~
A drastic plan to force millions of Queenslanders to keep their air conditioning at 26 degrees has been floated in an effort to prevent blackouts during the hot summer months.
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/10/10/06/28/queenslanders-could-be-forced-to-keep-air-con-at-26-degrees-this-summer
~ ~ ~
The Australian, 10 Oct, 2017: Get paid to turn off the aircon-
Scheme to reward people who turn off airconditioning to save power
https://twitter.com/aus_business/status/917922218847465478
30
I have a better idea. Let’s pay these [SNIP] to leave & go to one of the other popular holes. It would be paradise, no power, no food. Wouldn’t go of course ther are no benefits!
00
People being paid to turn off aircon…
Reminds me of that great ABC series “The Games” ( Clarke ) whereby the committee who designed the olympic running track got it wrong, so the hundred metre sprint track was taken back to 92 meters otherwise the sprinters would end up in the stands at the finish line…..
40
us Australian taxpayers have to wake up and get rid of the two major parties and greens who are hell bent on destroying our way of life.
Turnbull and Shorten have both shown us they’re knife throwing skills. They have both knifed previous prime ministers and have no problems knifing us taxpayers and pensioners who built this country by helping close down and sell off and close down our once great electricity commission and other critical assets.
I believe any party that supports the rebuilding of our critical infrastructure and putting it back in public ownership, (as we pay for it with tax and bills) will walk into government with a big majority vote.
No matter what the cost to rebuild, it we be cheaper than if we keep heading on their destructive green leaning path, destroying business, security and stability.
170
Would be good if there was a Secure Energy Australia Party wouldnt it?
60
It would be a good start yarpos. I’m sure it would attract all the voters who have always seen through lies and deceit.
Also the people waking up to the fact that Australia can’t sustain its large businesses and jobs (or even the lights on in some States) that go with them if we keep believing in and making policies on made up or reworked models of our past.
Our grandparents, parents etc would be rolling in the grave with what these clowns have done to the assets they left us with .
70
Sometime the demonising of carbon dioxide has to stop. We understand it is not a pollutant but endless conflation with carbon – in the form of industrial particulate has influenced the public mind.It amazes me that people can’t make the distinction.Everything is couched in terms of how do we reduce our “carbon footprint” and meeting carbon reduction targets. How to get the message out that it doesn’t really matter.We know that carbon is an essential basis in organic life,and in CO2 a prerequisite for photosynthesis and therefor a must for life on earth.
130
That’s the core of the issue Glen and it is amazing to see how little has been pushed into the public domain by academics and those who understand the issue.
The two main problems are that most people don’t understand the supposed heating mechanism behind the global warming claims and those who do are often employed at universities.
CO2 is not part of an out of control heating mechanism in Earth’s atmosphere.
I just thought of a joke, but I’d better not.
KK
100
KK,
The longer we use our “solid sunshine” and “liquid sunshine” the better.
But, the greeinies don’t want to know about it.
20
That’s a good way of looking at it,
10
Near future dystopian scenario? : Aircon detector drones lock on to warm aircon exhaust air, match GPS address to aircon licence data. Heavy fines, re-education gulags for prole defaulters.
130
‘We need all the electricity to police you better.’
20
Plenty of sun means plenty of solar power – where is it?! How about all the homes with solar panels going off grid – putting in a battery and a switch?
60
There is plenty there, we were still exporting yesterday with the AC running while we had lunchtime power. The mid afternoon peak could have been worse.
Nice thought bubble but somebody needs to poney up the 20-30k to make all that happen
30
I have said it before, but on demand days like yesterday and probably today (Monday)it is incumbent on Premier Andrews to use his regulatory powers to restrict or shut off power sent to South Australia through the interconnects. This ensures Victoria has enough power to meet demand.
If that happened, the spot price for power would skyrocket in SA, making it attractive for Vic generators to make a quick super profit.
But Andrews duty is to the people and this businesses of this state. I can see the Andrews government facing legal claims if it does not restrict interstate power transfer, and whole areas of Vic are blacked out (“load shedding”).
Load shedding was one of the key features of the compulsory “smart” meters we foolishly imported from the UK without asking enough questions.
Remember, the deep green extremists who had the ear of the UK Blair government wanted an annual power allowance for every household and business, with blackouts through smart meters if anyone went over their quota.
Thats centrally planned communism to me, and we are on the way there.
110
DaveR
“I have said it before, but on demand days like yesterday and probably today (Monday)it is incumbent on Premier Andrews to use his regulatory powers to restrict or shut off power sent to South Australia through the interconnects. This ensures Victoria has enough power to meet demand.”
Not likely to happen as right now it looks like SA is preserving Victoria from darkness
10
I suggest we shut off all power transfer to Victoriastan and SA, and see what happens……
( the following said with Soviet-era accent… )
“Glorious Soviet Republic of SA & Vic will show dirty capitalist state NSW to inferior to glorious Soviet way ov life…..”
20
The lit skyline of Melbourne is different from the one I saw from the SCC last Sunday week.
All the office buildings had their lights off.
60
Maybe it was Tassie that let Melbourn go dark last night ?
Unusually, for the first time in many days, the Tassie/Vic interconnector kept feeding 3-400MW to Vic all day and night continuously yesterday.
Normally, after 9pm its Vic supplying Tassie, but not yesterday ?
However at 9pm, Tassie dropped 200+ MW of Hydro power for some reason, needing an hour or two to recover again. !
70
To be fair to AEMO and the power generators, the problem wasn’t caused by lack of generators. It was apparently an overloaded distribution system. If that was the case, infilling and more appliances have occurred and the local street/ substation transformers haven’t been uprated. What almost certainly made it worse is all the solar cells on the roof. These would hide the true load during the day. Normally as it went towards dusk and their output dropped, the need for air conditioners would also drop. However, if it was a hot evening, then power demand in the suburbs would go through the roof and all those local transformers protection would trip off.
The solution is to uprate the distribution network. That will cost, but the alternative is more blackouts on muggy evenings.
00
Upgrading the distribution network in line with population and demand is their core business. There are no real surprises there, they know the environment and though know exactly the rate and type of connection.
20
Anything is possible, but by 9pm the total demand in Viv was at least 1+ GW down from its peak at 6pm.
So no, it doesnt look like a sudden surge in demand by AC systems, and it seems there should have been plenty of capacity, but maybe something happened locally to those areas to give the blackout. ?
00
1) Surely it is circuit breakers tripping and not “fuses”.
2) It is simply staggering that unreported air conditioners are being blamed and as Jo pointed out there is no requirement to report these. Perhaps the back story to that is that he means that there are a lot of air cons not connected to the load shedding DRED device (Demand Response Enable Device) which allows the grid manager (or Government!) to turn off your air con.
101
The real problem is that the average person does not understand how complicated AC power generation is. The maths involved would make most people’s eyes glaze over especially as maths is a subject that has been badly taught in State Schools for the last 30 years.
When I explain to people how generators are synchnorized they are amazed think that a wind mill can just inject its self into the grid.
I wonder where our home grown engineers are going to come from in the future.
220
For whatever reason the rest of the world does understand it and knows that’s why it’s extremely important to have a stable source of base load power, be it nuclear, coal or gas. The climate disaster warriors and economic psychopaths (LNP, ALP and Greens) on the other hand think they know better and believe our economy can grow without additional coal fired power stations even if we by some miracle prevent the further closure of our existing ones.
60
You left out the UN in our list of economic psychopaths, Peter.
Sorry to be pedantic, but this is the ultimate body responsible for all of this.
130
I agree the UN is responsible for the promulgation of ridiculous ideas, but there are many ridiculous ideas out there. It is the voters who don’t bother to fact check, listen to other voices, etc – all the things that brought us to JoNova – who are at fault. This is a democracy, and, ultimately, it is up to the populace to determine which policies are implemented.
50
Correct NB. One does not need to go overseas to see the real reason why we are doomed. All the information is out there for all to see, more so than ever. It’s the reason why I was not surprised to see Trump win. There was so much data out there pointing out why he could not lose. What surprised me is he didn’t win with a much bigger margin, but I suppose it’s due to same factor we have here – too many non-thinkers – we just have a higher proportion of them here. In the end we get the government we deserve, nothing more and nothing less. The trouble here is we do not have a real alternative, and even if we did I doubt it would make any difference. Australians are generally more socialist orientated than the Americans. That’s why we have to go though a horrific period before people wake up to the fact that socialism is terminal.
40
I want to show you two images which highlight this situation in Victoria. So as not to be suggested that I am using incorrect times, I have kept the dates as close together as is possible. Both images show only coal fired power generation for just Victoria. Both images are for typical working days. The first image is for Monday 30Jan2017, last year, when Hazelwood was still in operation and the second image is for Thursday 25Jan2018, four days ago.
Right Click your mouse on each image to open in a new window, so you can compare the both images.
Victoria coal fired power 30Jan2017
Victoria coal fired power 25Jan2018
The images show the total power generation across both days, and I have left the ‘legends’ below both images, so you can see that the only boxes ticked are for coal fired power, the first image showing Hazelwood as ‘HWP’, and the second, this year, no Hazelwood. The coloured lines along the bottom of each image show each individual Unit and the black line close to the top is the SubTotal for all the power from all the ticked boxes for these coal fired Units only.
As you can see from the first image, (2017) the Load Curve for generation (sort of) follows the actual Demand, low at 3AM and then ramping up during the day to its maximum power generation, and then, after the mid afternoon/evening Peak, decreasing generation. proving that coal fired power can ramp up and down as required, depending on the Demand requirements. Even at Minimum power generation here, the total is 5000MW, and rises to (about) 6200MW, and then drops away slightly to still around 5300 to 5700MW. During this time, all eight Units at Hazelwood were generating, and Unit 5 came off line at 7.30PM Hazelwood was delivering around 1300MW for that whole period during the day until Unit 5 went off line. All the other ten Units at Loy Yang A and B and Yallourn W were in operation, also generating their maximum as well.
Now go to the second image, only four days ago, and now with no Hazelwwod. The remaining ten Units now have to run flat out all day every day that they are in operation. The can generate around 4400 to 4600MW across the board, and that (virtual) straight line you see there is typical for what has happened since Hazelwood closed down. No more ramping up and down Just flat out maximum generation while ever they are operating. The only change is when one or more Units go offline. Note that the maximum is now 400MW plus LOWER than at the Base Load, ramped down period when ancient Hazelwood was in service, and the total now is 1400MW plus LOWER than it was last year.
Victoria is now stressed for power, and even one Unit going down now is a serious situation.
Go on Dan, walk the walk, and close down another coal fired plant. I dare you.
Tony.
261
Keep in mind here that even as it was closing down, that 53 year old relic, Hazelwood was generating and delivering 15% more power than EVERY wind plant in Australia. Just three of its eight Units generated and delivered more power than EVERY wind plant in Victoria.
Tony.
270
It was disgraceful that they didn’t mothball the plant instead of proceeding with demolition.
To add to the insanity there are plans to turn its coal mine into a lake. See picture at:
https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/s/w/e/q/image.related.articleLeadwide.620×349.grsh68.png/1475293285027.jpg
91
Occasionally commenters here suggest Hazelwood be fired up again, whereas others claim it has been irreversibly destroyed. A bit difficult to determine from just driving past on the Princes Hwy, but aside from no steam emu sting from the stacks, nothing appears to have changed when I do my weekly run up through Traralgon.
10
Doesn’t the unused equipment sag under its own weight and become distorted? I understood that to be the problem.
00
Annie:
Yes, the shafts of the generators esp. the steam turbines have to be kept rotating (about 3 r.p.m.) when the unit isn’t working. When maintenance is carried out the the shaft is supported by (wood?) chocks.
The same applies to the propellor shafts on very big ships e.g. aircraft carriers and to wind turbines, which is why they draw current from the grid to be ‘turned over’ during prolongued wind shortages.**
** It is not unknown for wind turbines to ‘work’ during no wind conditions during visits by politicians and accompanying gullible journalists e.g. from the ABC TV.
00
Question is, were they chocked ? The labour costs of doing so would be relatively insignificant in the greater scheme of things.
10
Damn auto correct! ’emanating’ not bloody ’emu sting’ !
00
Almost certainly not. The equipment will be scrapped, possibly less spectacularly than Weatherill the dynamite madman would prefer.
00
“Victoria is now stressed for power, ”
So is NSW. Dragging a lot from Qld most of the time, then sending some of that to Vic.
Let’s hope the palace chook doesn’t break the QLD power stations with its scratching around fro renewables.
81
Queensland total Demand at Midday is 7347MW.
Total power being generated is 8524MW.
Total power generated by just coal fired power is 7300MW.
Total power being fed into NSW is 1150MW.
Current Queensland Demand is almost totally being supplied by coal fired power with all 22 Units in operation delivering that 7300MW out of a Nameplate of 8149MW, so at a CF of just a tick under 90%.
There is not even the slightest doubt that will continue. The Queensland Government owns all but 1800MW of that total, and they are making just too much money from the sale of that power to even contemplate shutting any of them down. When you’re making $11 Million plus per day on average from them, why would you shut them down.
Tony.
140
“why would you shut them down.”
maniacal ideology !!
00
Wow!
First time for everything I guess. After 30 weeks now of collecting the data, the Base Load for the AEMO coverage area is back up over 18000MW.
This morning Monday 29Jan2018, that Base Load at 4 AM was 20640MW, and that’s a first for me. I have never seen it that high.
In Victoria, the Base Load was 5430MW, and that’s a full 1000MW higher than for last Thursday, the most recent work day in that State.
The Load Curve for today in Victoria shows a distinct difference to those from last week work days, and is consistently higher across the hours so far by around 1000 to 1500MW, and why.
School has gone back, the teachers anyway, as the students rock up tomorrow morning.
Same in NSW as well.
The next few days could be quite telling indeed when it comes to total power consumption.
Tony.
100
Thanks Tony for you excellent analysis, as usual. What really disturbs me is it’s all downhill form now on over the coming years as the population grows and more coal fired power stations are closed. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand we are already treading on thin ice, and from next year there will most likley be no “ice” at all resulting in more frequent grid failures. Complacency is now being overtaken by insanity. It should not have to get to the point where we have major cities without power for lengthy periods to wake up most Australians, but it now appears that’s the only way. People who are responsible for letting this happen should be behind bars in the future. They have been warned many times already so they can’t plead ignorance any longer. It’s ineptitude at best and deliberate destruction of the nation’s economy at worst.
80
No real problem synchronizing smaller generators such as wind to the grid – I have worked in the paper industry for over 30 years and we used cogeneration generators (steam powered) from 1.5MW to 30MW all synched to the grid (since the 1930’s). The main issues with wind generation is that the turbines are NOT synchronous generators and cannot contribute to grid stability and also are highly and randomly variable in output, both individually and as a group over a wide area.
For those generators using an inverter to connect to the grid – most, I think – a fairly simple change to distribute a synchronising signal separate from the power system would allow them to contribute to grid stability.
All of that said, also, I did my PhD on hydro power systems (Tasmania) and it was then considered (even with fast starting hydro) good practice and normal operating procedure to have sufficient spinning reserve (i.e. power generation running but not loaded) to cope with the two largest single contingency failures and ‘ready to start’ (start & load in less than 5 minutes) for two more failures.
The systems in Vic and SA are operating on the ragged edge and would have been considered unthinkable in the Tasmanian system in the early 1970’s.
A further comment on renewables – Tasmania, despite many months water storage (equivalent to batteries) almost ran out of water in the 1960’s due to a prolonged drought. Wind and solar, even with pumped storage and/or batteries are far mor vulnerable. With hydro, the crisis takes a year to develop. With wind and solar it can be a day or even hours.
160
Turn on everything and crash the system…. Then turn it all off. when the power comes back.. crash the system again ad infinitum.After a while the powers will wake up to the fact that the little people can really play “Let Loose The Dogs of we have Had Enough” Its called “People Power” and maybe its past time it is exercised in Australia.
110
In the era of social media , this and the idea of mass informal voting is probably feasible if the public get disgruntled enough.
00
Yes…there are multiple ways to make a point…crashing the voting system through informal votes creates a big fat question mark over governability and by extension Soverign Risk…and ungovernable place is a risk to the Banksters….
20
With the high cost of electricity, not too many would be willing to play that game.
00
My commentt was addressed to Destroyer.
00
Don’t forget I believe there is overtime bans still in force by the power line industry workers so this could have extended the time people were blacked out .
50
23 Jan: EnergyPost EU: The sorry state of demand response in the U.S.
by Fereidoon Sioshansi
Editor’s Note
Fereidoon Sioshansi is president of Menlo Energy Economics, a consultancy based in San Francisco, CA and editor/publisher of EEnergy Informer, a monthly newsletter with international circulation. This article was first published in the February 2018 edition of EEnergy Informer…
***His latest book project is Innovation and Disruption at the Grid’s Edge, published in June 2017. It contains articles by two dozen experts on “how distributed energy resources are disrupting the traditional utility business model”, including contributions from:
***◾Audrey Zibelman, CEO of AEMO and former Chair, New York Public Service Commission.
◾Michael Picker, President, California Public Utilities Commission
***◾Paula Conboy, Chair, Australian Energy Regulator, Melbourne, Australia
◾Analysts from Pöyry, CSIRO, TU Delft, University of Freiburg and many others
While peak demand grew, the use of demand response declined by 10% last year in the U.S., writes Fereidoon Sioshansi, publisher of newsletter EEnergy Informer and editor of Innovation & Disruption at the Grid’s Edge. The decline is no incident, notes Sioshansi: regulators are failing to take an active role. Millions of advanced meters are performing dumb tasks.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 requires the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to conduct an annual survey of the demand response (DR) and advance metering in the US. The 12th edition of the report (LINK) was released in December 2017 and anyone looking for major revelations is likely to be disappointed…
Time-varying rates
There is even less progress when it comes to time-varying rates – which were expected to follow the installation of advanced metering infrastructure or AMI.
While some progress is expected – for example California’s 3 large investor-owned utilities (IOUs) will transition to residential default time-of-use rates (TOU) by 2019 – FERC notes that “barriers remain to the wide-spread uptake of time-based rates.”
State-level regulators, ever so conservative and lethargic, are concerned about customer reaction as their bills change when TOU rates are introduced…
Squandered
Clearly, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which was to usher in a new era of pricing electricity by time of use and other schemes to better manage peak demand, has not achieved even a fraction of what was expected.
Moreover, the need to manage peak demand, has become far more pressing and urgent – mostly because so much new variable renewable generation is being added to the network, which requires more price responsive demand.
In the meantime, billions of dollars have been spent – squandered may be a more accurate term – on millions of advanced meters, which by-and-large are doing more or less exactly as much as the dumb spinning disk meters they replaced: They measure kWhs consumed and produce a bill virtually indistinguishable from the ones Thomas Edison would have delivered to customers a century ago…ETC
http://energypost.eu/the-sorry-state-of-demand-response-in-the-u-s/
40
forget China’s 2017 record imports of coal, oil and gas – see articles near bottom of comments on jo’s Davos thread – the Australian public can’t even counter the CAGW activism directed at our banks by self-interested, non tax-paying NGOs and our FakeNewsMSM:
28 Jan: SMH: Banks slash coal loans by 50 per cent as investor pressure mounts
by Clancy Yeates
Australia’s big banks slashed loans to fossil fuel companies by almost a fifth in 2017, including a 50 per cent drop in their coal mining exposure, new analysis shows, as investors and regulators ramp up pressure over climate change risks.
ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank, Westpac and Commonwealth Bank’s combined loans to coal miners slumped by about $1.5 billion, or more than 50 per cent per cent, according to analysis of bank disclosures from environmental finance group Market Forces…
The analysis also showed declines in lending to oil and gas extraction and coal-fired power stations. On an underlying basis, the figures suggest a decline of 18.5 per cent in the big four’s fossil fuel exposure…
***While banks have acknowledged the broad trend, the extent of the fall highlights the change that is occurring as companies face growing scrutiny on climate risks from big investors including ***superannuation funds…
The figures from Market Forces, an affiliate of Friends of the Earth Australia, show that as well as cutting fossil fuel financing, the lenders had boosted exposure to renewable energy by 20 per cent, or about $1.8 billion…READ ALL
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-slash-coal-loans-by-50-per-cent-as-investor-pressure-mounts-20180125-p4yyvo.html
22 Jan: SMH: One area where the banks are getting it right: curbing coal
by Clancy Yeates
The fact is, their boards may have a hard time justifying big investments that would lift their exposure to the most carbon-intensive fossil fuels at the moment. Even without a carbon price, common sense says we’ll have to start burning less coal to meet climate change goals, notably the Paris agreement to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees, to which all of the banks have agreed.
Indeed, a speech from Australian Prudential Regulation Authority member Geoff Summerhayes in late November said APRA saw a “prudential threat” from climate change.
Summerhayes’ key message was that he had “absolute certainty” the move towards a lower-emission economy was well under way.
Such a big shift clearly raises the prospect of carbon-intensive assets being “stranded”, and bank boards have a duty to consider that risk.
“Institutions that fail to adequately plan for this transition put their own futures in jeopardy, with subsequent consequences for their account holders, members or policyholders,” Summerhayes said…
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/one-area-where-the-banks-have-got-it-right-curbing-coal-20180118-p4yymp.html
10
Hunter Hall investments was all into this kind of thing. After the election of Trump Peter Hall had a nervous breakdown and sold his portion of the business to Soul Patterson which amongst other things holds a large investment in coal mines.
I have given up on investing in Australia. My US share investments are doing much better than my investments in Australia. When banks make business decisions on the basis of viture signaling rather than on what will make money then they will no longer do well!
30
We had a brief power-cut around midday. Interesting that I found the a/c and electric hob both off about half an hour later….will check more quickly in future! Also, our Miele ‘fridge/freezer goes onto a very loud mode, even after only a short time off, the Bose CD player makes a loud racket as it comes back on, which is what alerted me to the cut.
10
A good way for them to reduce a/c use, isn’t it? Just a brief power-cut does it….no need for DRED, which we don’t have.
10
I also had a power cut this am. I am not sure how long it was because I was out of the house for an hour. It took half an hour to come back on after I got home.
There might be a pattern of load shedding going on. We need some one from inside the power companies or AEMO to tell us what is going on.
20
OT but more ABC bias and incompetence in journalism.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/donald-trump-interview-piers-morgan-feminism-change-brexit/9369096
10
once again, forget China’s record imports of coal, oil and gas in 2017:
27 Jan: SMH: Australia debates value of electric vehicles while China pushes ahead
by Kirsty Needham
When Hong Dan, 26, bought her first car six months ago, the choice to go electric was simple.
First, in pollution-conscious Beijing, getting a licence plate for an electric car is easier than a petrol car…
On Thursday night, she left her car charging at an underground parking station while she went to dinner at a nearby restaurant with friends…
In Australia, the Turnbull government is debating the merits of electric cars, with conservative Liberal and National politicians pushing back against the suggestion of government subsidies while complaining about the impact on fuel tax excise and the environmental cost of electric vehicles if they are charged using coal fired electricity. Meanwhile China is simply getting on with converting its enormous fleet…
Taxi driver, Mr Tian, is resting as he waits an hour for his new Beijing Electric Vehicle EU400 to get from 30 to 80 per cent charge. He has to charge every three to four hours while working Beijing’s streets, but says there are plenty of charging stations around and the cost of running the taxi has dropped significantly…
In the parking bay next to him, Mr Zhang, 35, is watching a movie on his mobile phone while he waits to charge a four-year-old electric car. He complains its range of 200 kilometres drops to 150 kilometres in winter because the lithium battery doesn’t like the cold…
Anders Hove, a Beijing-based energy researcher with Columbia University, says the three goals of China’s electric vehicle policy are: an “industrial strategy to dominate an emerging industry”; reduce oil imports because China has replaced the US as the largest oil importing country; and improve public health in urban areas by reducing human exposure to tailpipe emissions and secondary pollutants.
Generous government subsidies kick-started the market in 2010. But as cheaply-made electric vehicles now abound, subsidies are being wound back.
National Energy Administration deputy director Liu Baohua said at a conference last week that subsidies will be phased out because they have been a factor in poor manufacturing quality in the low end of the market…
Automotive journalist Qiu Kaijun, who writes about electric vehicles for social media, said chasing subsidies had even led to fraud and forgery. “The authority has punished 12 carmakers, and put some guys in jail,” he said.
This year, subsidies will only be available for electric vehicles with a driving range of 300 kilometres or more, the most efficient vehicles, and those with better batteries…
Greenpeace’s China energy analyst ***Lauri Myllyvirta says the energy source used to charge an electric vehicle has a “tremendous impact” on emissions if charged using coal-fired power.
But he says China is rapidly shifting to green energy in the power sector.
“The share of coal in the electricity mix is on track to fall below 50 per cent by 2030, which is the earliest that you could expect a substantial share of the car fleet to be electric,” says Myllyvirta.
“The popular simplification that China’s power generation comes almost exclusively from coal is no longer true, and emissions from manufacturing and charging an EV – as well as from manufacturing a gasoline car — are falling at a significant rate in China.”
http://www.smh.com.au/world/australia-debates-value-of-electric-vehicles-while-china-pushes-ahead-20180125-p4yyws.html
***Greenpeace’s “China energy analyst” Lauri Myllyvirta is something of a CAGW media darling – pops up on Reuters, NYT, WaPo, Guardian, Bloomberg, BBC, CBC, Deutsche Welle plus, of course, on theirABC as “senior coal campaigner for Greenpeace”:
China’s Premier Li Keqiang vows to tackle chronic air pollution
ABC Online-5 Mar. 2017
Lauri Myllyvirta, senior coal campaigner for Greenpeace, said they had expected the Government to announce a speeding up of measures because air pollution was supposed to hit targets this year that were laid down in 2013.
00
If we assume that the supply/demand was not an issue yesterday and I think we can, because load was not shed from the network (as far as I am aware)… then the generation of power was sufficient for demand. How the grid got to that point at any time yesterday is not what I am concerned about here, because I agree the grid is stressed and our generation mix is wrong. We have been so close to load shedding this summer and there are lots of feet paddling under water to keep the grid functioning …
What occurred last night in Melbourne is at the distribution level. This is the poles and wires and fuses (yes fuses) that are all across our suburbs. High heat causes additional load on the network due to A/Cs etc… as well, the thermal efficiency is reduced on the transformers, wires etc so they overheat faster under the same load. The network has a finite amount of load that can be drawn from it at any particular point, really just a bigger version of the circuits in your house. Once that limit is reached, for safety a fuse will blow – shutting off the part of the grid that is suffering from overload. You can see these fuses on many poles. These are not instant fuses, they take some stress and spike situations, but each section/circuit of the grid has these safety mechanisms built in to prevent worse situations – think overloaded transformers blowing up due to overheating/load. The more of this that occurs the more risk to the entire grid. That’s why small sections are tripped off with a fuse blowing due to the load that is being drawn, NOT due (in this situation) to the lack of supply.
There are also breakers but the most common overload protection mechanism is a fuse at the local LV substation level.
10
As an update, there are also Transformers (think those big grey boxes on poles) that do need replacement do to overload. This is more load being drawn through them than they are designed to continuously provide. To blow one of these up take work, and a lot of load on the circuit. The transformer can only supply the load if the supply from the generation is there in the first place…
20
Tim, you do sound like the voice of reason with your explanation. I would respond by noting that the money that is being spent on destroying our power sources and replacing them with less effective sources could have been spent on maintaining a viable distribution system. Sadly, it is a fail whichever way you look at it.
90
NB – Nailed it, you did!
30
Um Tim, so we have never had those loads across our suburban networks before, never coped with those temperature before? And then how long does it take to reset a fuse?
80
Yes we have had these loads before, it is quite common to have localised blackouts (sometimes lots of them) on very hot days, especially more than one or two days in a row. However due to the other issues around generation that are getting lots of airtime, this event has developed more “legs” and people are mixing up the two reasons. This was/is NOT a supply issue.
Also don’t confuse local circuit load with overall load. The total network load was high, but nothing unusual. However local circuit loads in some areas exceeded the ability of the circuit to supply, hence a blown fuse.
You can’t reset a fuse. You have send a truck out, and send a tech up in a bucket to replace it. That’s why it takes time.
And no, putting in larger capacity fuses is not an option unless also upgrading the circuit (wires, poles, insulators etc) which it protects, so that it too can take the higher load.
20
I agree.
We need more substations as well as stable generators.
20
Hi KK, Yup. For sure. But the market is not a level paying field, it is biased towards renewables and subsidies for them. This weekend was not even as bad as it could get, no load shedding occurred. We need another few high 30/low 40 days to really see what would happen… Not that I would wish that on anyone.
20
We just need a bigger nail in the fuse block….. 🙂
Trannies can only dissipate heat at a certain rate as they are ( usually ) aircooled, so a hot tranny means increased resistance and eventually protection kicks in.
10
Hi Steve…. ha, wish it were that simple!
00
Maybe not Robber, its hard to know at oue level. One of the reasons we left Melbourne was ever increasing density. I am guessing the power usage per square km is very different from a decade or two ago. However the infrastructure people shouldnt be sitting on their hands, the growth is easily knowable in advance, it doesnt fall from the sky.
20
Fair comment Tim, but supply may not have caused yesterday’s problem, but if just one coal turbine trips in Victoria on a very hot blackouts will follow due to frequency/voltage dips.
20
Hi Ian946, Agreed. The grid is VERY close to load shedding on very hot days. I think if yesterday’s heat was occuring today, we would be also in a far worse situation due to the overall higher load by industry and commerce.
40
Supply for yesterday was tight –
Market Notice 61006
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the VIC region for the following period:
From 1600 hrs to 1730 hrs on 28/01/2018.
The contingency capacity reserve required is 1120 MW.
The minimum reserve available is 1015 MW.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
The expected shortfall and the actual shortfall were miles apart , reading Tony from oz above and looking at what others have commented it’s clearly supply / generation that’s at fault surely our gold plated poles and wires are up to scratch ?
11
Sure was. An LOR1 means we should have been able to weather (excuse the pun) the failure of the largest single generator and still maintain supply. LOR2 means if we lose the largest single generator we might be in trouble, LOR3 = we’re in the hole.
40
The grid is comprised of generation, transmission and distribution. It is a “Load Following Machine”.
Got that? The Grid follows the Load. The Load is whatever the heck is connected. The Load is predictable in the large.
The ISO or AEMO as AU calls it, absolutely knows the Load yesterday, a year ago yesterday, etc. The anticipated Load for tomorrow is predictable. It is the purpose, duty, obligation, legal and moral imperative, to provide sufficient generation, transmission, and distribution, for the predictable Load. Utilities have been doing an admirable job of it for 100 years. Left to do their jobs, there would not be a grid stability problem, but that leads us to the point, eh?
Enter Politicians and Navel Gazing EcoFreaks who have NO IDEA how a functional grid operates. They think it operates according to their “feelings”, “desires”, “concepts”, and so forth. AU is going to suffer greatly so long as Idiots are allowed to have a “veto authority” over Reality. Any Licensed Electrical Power Engineer could have predicted recent events with certainty. The clear “fact” is that AU has insufficient dispatchable generation. Period.
I hate to say this, but: Get ready for much worse things to come. Crippling economic impacts, poverty, unnecessary deaths, spoiled and wasted food, and so on. All of this because a seeming majority in AU lacks the clarity to admit their energy policy is a suicide pact driven by inept, unqualified, seditious, @ss-clowns who pretend that their incompetence is the fault of “unlicensed air cons”.
I truly wish AU the best in all of this. It will, of necessity, get much worse before it gets better, mostly because elected officials are denying reality and the green blob has far too much political, ideological and media, influence.
Had Hazelwood been online, there would not have been an issue.
Might I suggest the AU consider electing a Licensed Electrical Power Engineer and toss out Turnbull & Friends?
201
A great outline Lance.
Perhaps the biggest problem yesterday was outlined by Tim. For too many years now we have been paying through the nose for gold plating of poles and wires.
Unfortunately the distribution companies seem to have pocketed the cash and not even bothered to lead plate.
For what we have paid we could at least expect a distribution system that was well maintained, up to date technically and have a bit of future proofing built in.
It seems that the transformers were at the limit of their capacity and sub standard for the task when we have paid to have them gold plated.
KK
70
Cheers, Keith. Poles and wires aren’t the issue. Undersized transformers upon the poles might be. It is common to “push” transformers beyond their limits for periods of time. A proper Utility recognizes that and upgrades poles, wires, transformers, as necessary to provide stable distribution. The true issue is how the Utility is legally allowed to be paid whilst not investing in known grid weaknesses. In other words, businesses do as they are allowed to do. And they do it until they cannot. Nature of the beast. That said, customers must have some “rights” to what they have paid to be provided. If not, it is a political question of responsibility. Again, an issue of what was voted for, paid for, versus what was actually delivered. If you are not being provided the things you have paid for, it would seem that you have a legal claim in tort law against the providers (Utility companies). I gather you are saying that generation and transmission wasn’t the issue, but rather it was a failure in distribution. Fair enough. That would be a local issue and not a National issue. Even so, it is surprising for a Utility to fail so clearly in their duties to maintain a viable system when paid in advance to avoid such issues. That would be a tort issue at law as “malfeasance in practice”. The US grid is not allowed to make such avoidable and predictable errors, and if they do, the costs are borne by the companies involved. From outage to “power back” is 4 hours or less. More if a “State of Emergency” is allowed by virtue of hurricane or natural disaster. Outages are tightly controlled. It took 10 days to restore power to 20 Million people in the last event, but that was unusual, a result of a CAT 3/4 Hurricane event. Normally it is a matter of hours. If an outage lasts more than 8 hours, the Utility is responsible for losses and costs absent a declared disaster event. Apologies if I’ve spoken out of turn. In contrast, perhaps I ought be more appreciative of the system we have.
70
“Even so, it is surprising for a Utility to fail so clearly in their duties to maintain a viable system when paid in advance to avoid such issues”
It depends if they want regular outages….if you assume all the green virtue signalling is to let people suffer through blackouts to make a point, then providing a solid infrastructure wouldnt send the right message to the mug punters.
The problem is, I understand only too well how the top level political miscreants think. There is no way they dont understand whats going and why, but are letting it run….
30
Hi Lance, I agree with you in the most part. However yesterday/today’s outages in Melbourne were NOT related to supply. If Hazelwood was online, the problem would still have happened. It’s load in individual local circuits and blown fuses due to localised load.
If load shedding had occurred (ie. AEMO or local distributors deliberately reducing load through load shedding) then that might have been due to a lack of generation/supply or another reason
Load shedding due to lack of supply did not happen as far as I am aware, and no LOR3 notice was issued by AEMO (which would have occurred if load was shed)
20
Hi, Tim. Agreed. If the issue was local overcurrent, then not a generation failure event. That said, it is incomprehensible that the utility is/was unaware of connected load or transformer limitations under known load scenarios. Either the utility ignored their load history and known capacity limits, or there was an undervoltage situation that lead to an overcurrent situation that tripped the line fuses. Someone dropped the ball. This sort of thing should not happen. Overcurrent trips usually relate to line faults (tree limbs, wind induced faults, etc) or undervoltage conditions. Overloaded transformers are unusual fault conditions unless the utility is lax in their planning. Suffice to say the grid was incapable of supporting the load. Load shedding isn’t normally relevant at the secondary distribution level but rather at the transmission level when undervoltage is observed. Distribution level events are usually the fault of localised overload or poor planning with regard to connected load. No way that the connected load was unknown or unpredictable unless it was storm induced or accident induced. Load shedding is an immediate reaction to an undervoltage condition to prevent a cascading collapse or a planned reaction to a known generation shortfall. If the grid worked yesterday or last year with the same/similar connected load, then it wasn’t a failure in the transmission or distribution systems unless the grid was precariously close to failure. A forensic analysis of the voltage and current conditions at the time of failure at the transmission and distribution ties is necessary to identify what caused the event unless it was already known where the weak point was. The lines see the apparent voltage and actual current necessary to supply the actual power at the load. Inductive loads (air cons compressors/motor loads) can shift the power factor ( voltage/current phase relationship) and cause higher currents or lower voltages than normally anticipated even with automatic tap changers. That said, to cause a fault within the normal design limits implies a low voltage or an overcurrent condition. Something tripped the line fuses or overloaded the transformers. Unless it was a random fault, it was preventable. This is why protective relaying studies are done on a regular basis: To identify what fails first and in what order and how to avoid those instances or, conversely, what must trip first to avoid a wider outage.
30
Hi Lance. We are in furious agreement! And almost everything I saw today was indicative of local over-current and fuse actions… I’ll say no more.
10
OK maybe but why would consumption be so different that previous summers?
Or could it be that fuses were blowing due to unstable line voltage (voltage dropping due to overall load nearing max capacity)
30
By the way, fuses get weak from previous abuse as well.
30
Why is this only now a problem, especially considering Julia blamed “gold plating” of the distribution networks for the price rises after her carbon tax? A gold plated network doesn’t blow fuses.
I suggest that energy companies are spending every penny they can beg, borrow or steal in trying bandaid solutions to capacity shortfall that everything else is neglected.
For the want of a nail the shoe was lost ………..
20
The problem is very simple. Given that most of our politicians (particularly in the red coloured party) are lawyers – they have no inherent understanding of electricity generation and consumption. They think all you have to do is turn on the switch. They have no realisation that the supply has to balance the demand all the time. They have no idea about synchronisation of the generators or start up times. The population deserves better and will not get it because engineers dont go into politics. Seemple!
80
The silence of engineering professionals and their professional bodies in the MSM is quite notable in this whole discussion.
80
You get the sense they have been warned off….
40
I think this is great policy. The best and cheapest way to meet out Paris Accord targets is simply to abate 28-30% of our population. Simply turning off their energy achieves abatement at $0/CO2E – much cheaper than the World’s Biggest Carbon Tax, Direct Action, or Cash for Clunkers.
30
Why did China pick 2030? Oh look…
10
Email your local State and Federal members re skyrocketing electricity prices in Victoria and South Australia.
Wholesale prices in cents/KWhr for financial years, converted from $/MWhr per AEMO.
2016 2017 2018
4.6 6.7 9.8 for Vic (and Jan prices soared from 4.7 to 13.9 cents/Kwhr over just two years)
6.2 10.9 10.0 for SA (and Jan prices soared from 5.0 to 16.9 cents/KWhr)
That’s not supply/demand, that’s extortion. Affordable electricity, that’s what we need, and we need it now.
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Somebody needs to follow this money. This does look like extortion – well planned extortion.
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Robert Gottliebsen has a new article – behind paywall – in case someone can access & excerpt it:
Governments concealing the truth about power
The Australian · 6 hours ago
multiple links at the following:
27 Jan: EnvironmentalResearchWebBlog: In Praise of (total) Demand Response
by Dave Elliott
‘If we could manage to adjust all energy demand to variable solar and wind resources, there would be no need for grid extensions, balancing capacity or overbuilding renewable power plants. Likewise, all the energy produced by solar panels and wind turbines would be utilised, with no transmission losses and no need for curtailment or energy storage’.
So says an interesting, wide ranging but well referenced article in Low Tech Magazine. It goes on ‘of course, adjusting energy demand to energy supply at all times is impossible, because not all energy using activities can be postponed. However, the adjustment of energy demand to supply should take priority, while the other strategies should play a supportive role’ (LINK)…
Curtailment would become even more of an issue if renewables expand so as to be able to meet peak load, without any balancing (via back up plants, storage, and /or imports) being available. That’s an unreal assumption: some would be. But if not, ‘in the case of a grid with 80% renewables, the generation capacity needs to be six times larger than the peak load, while the excess electricity would be equal to 60% of the EU’s current annual electricity consumption. Lastly, in a grid with 100% renewable power production, the generation capacity would need to be ten times larger than the peak load, and excess electricity would surpass the EU annual electricity consumption’…
http://blog.environmentalresearchweb.org/2018/01/27/in-praise-of-total-demand-response/
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24 Jan: Forbes: Jude Clemente: More Electric Cars Mean More Coal And Natural Gas
The World Economic Forum documents the countries announcing bans on sales of oil cars. Ultimately, to put them on par, the success of electric cars will depend on continued price declines, especially for batteries, and installing an adequate range where far distances can be traveled on a single charge. Bloomberg New Energy Finance confirms the future is bright…
The anti-fossil-fuel business tends to forget and/or ignore the fact that electric cars are, obviously, just that … powered by electricity, a secondary energy source that is mostly generated by the combustion of coal and natural gas both here in the U.S. and around the world.
Electric cars often need an entire night to recharge at home, and they can “increase a house’s power consumption by 50% or more,” The New York Times reported in 2013. A fellow FORBES contributor notes, “Adding an electric car on the grid is equivalent in some cases to adding three houses.”
There are measures to moderate new power needs when adding more electric cars to the grid, such as demand response, but the takeaway is undeniable: Both in the U.S. and around the world, for every 10 times an electric car goes to “power up,” it will be depending on coal and natural gas almost 6.5 of those times.
Electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet is going to increase electricity demand. This is a reminder as we continue to debate the future of existing base-load power. While the U.S. Department of Energy’s proposal to reward coal and nuclear plants didn’t pass a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission review, the need for caution over losing existing capacity remains. Once these vital plants are retired, there’s no putting the genie back into the bottle.
We just saw this again during this month’s deep freeze…
Globally, more electric cars are just a part of the massive increase in electricity consumption that will continue on for as far as our current models predict. Global electricity demand is expected to increase 1-3% per year, and you need just one statistic from one emerging country to see why: Although India has four times as many people, for instance, its total electricity usage is just a third of the U.S.’s.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/01/24/more-electric-vehicles-mean-more-coal-and-natural-gas/
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28 Jan: UK Telegraph: Jillian Ambrose: Killing the kilowatt: the race to cut carbon from heating
In a smart, detached home just south of Birmingham, the Minogue family are cosier than they have ever been. They are one of around 100 homes in the local area taking part in a trial that offers a hint at the next phase of Britain’s energy revolution.
Each room in the house is set at a slightly different temperature: teenage sons opt for a cooler setting to their sister, who prefers to keep the temperature toastier. The kitchen, already comfortably warm, will heat up another few notches in a couple of hours – in time for Mr Minogue to arrive home from work.
Nicola Minogue is in the living room looking over her home’s bespoke heating patterns via an iPad app. This is far more than a remote digital thermostat controller. The algorithms underpinning this system have carefully learned the heating dynamics of each room in the house to tailor the corresponding radiator to respond in perfect accord…
The app understands which rooms retain heat best, which struggle with damp, which are draughtier…
“I was surprised by how much warmer the house became, and we’re not paying any more than we were. It just works for each one of us,” says Mrs Minogue. She has agreed to be part of the trial for the last two winters and is already looking forward to the third.
It is this seemingly simple quality-of-life improvement which is set to unlock the next frontier of Britain’s bid to tackle climate change…
By going into the homes of its trialists, like the Minogues, the catapult hopes to “kill the kilowatt” and introduce the idea of paying for “warm hours”. Fixed contracts offer a set amount of warm hours per month at a fixed price. A free plan allows as many warm hours as you like at a set weekly price.
The Minogues are on a flexible plan, with a certain number of warm hours which they can top up as needed. “This has shown to convert people from quite passive bill payers, to discerning customers who understand the options they can have and can then have a fairly sophisticated discussion,” says Lipson…
The approach can be likened to the boom in electric vehicles. By quietly supporting the blossoming industry for years before calling for an end to the sale of traditional cars from 2030, most car makers were prepared…
Already, experts predict that electric cars will dominate new vehicle sales long before governments put their collective foot down…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/28/killing-kilowatt-race-cut-carbon-heating/
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Obviously related to Kylie and Danni – as thick as two bricks.
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really? that based on anything?
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This might seem a trifle harsh but… sucked in.
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27 Jan: UK Telegraph: Jillian Ambrose: Gas market shock forces ministers to review UK’s supply policies
Government ministers will undertake a fresh review of the UK’s gas supplies after major disruptions late last year ripped through the market, driving prices to multi-year highs.
The UK gas price rose to its highest level since 2011 after an explosion in Austria compounded disruption following outages in Norway and a crack in the country’s main North Sea pipeline system…
In a letter, seen by The Sunday Telegraph, energy minister Richard Harrington assured a group of concerned energy companies and trade unions that the Government would turn its attention to concerns over the recent gas market shocks.
Mr Harrington’s letter said his department would “comprehensively test our assumptions” built on past reviews, which concluded that the UK’s gas system was secure due to the variety of import sources available…
The fresh approach to gas security is a major step-change for the Government, which in the past has focused on the country’s ability to import gas when needed, but has ignored the crippling cost of relying on foreign sources when market prices spike.
The regulator has also doggedly countered concerns over the UK’s gas supply security by focusing on physical gas flows into the British gas grid rather than the price shouldered by consumers.
It has retained this focus despite historic market price spikes and the collapse of two energy suppliers this winter.
UK gas futures are a third higher compared to the situation two years ago, in part driven higher by the rally in global oil prices…
The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy did not respond to repeated queries. from The Sunday Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/27/gas-market-shock-forces-ministers-review-uks-supply-policies/
blame Brexit:
29 Jan: Reuters: UK risks higher energy prices, supply shortages from Brexit – lawmakers
By Susanna Twidale
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union could lead to higher energy prices and energy supply shortages if the exit is not managed properly, a report by an upper-house parliamentary committee report said on Monday…
“This creates the potential for higher energy bills, and leaving the EU could risk supply shortages in the event of extreme weather or unplanned generation outages,” it said…
The EU operates a solidarity principle regarding gas, which means in the event of a serious crisis member states are expected to help each other maintain supplies.
Britain’s role in the arrangement, once it leaves the European Union in March 2019 is unclear…ETC
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-energy/uk-risks-higher-energy-prices-supply-shortages-from-brexit-lawmakers-idUSKBN1FI001
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Await air conditioner police patrolling the streets. Heaven help us.
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new growth industry, stealth and camouflage A/Cs
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I was advised this morning that electricity supply was cut yesterday (Sunday) from about 2.00 pm until 7.00 pm in Tuncurry, midcoast NSW.
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Trying to keep load shedding out of sight, away from major centres where reporters might be more active.
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Unfortunately letters to editors, wringing of hands, political posturing and name calling are not going to fix this problem.
The problem will not be fixed until we have extensive blackouts and multiple deaths (ca hundreds).
This is unfortunate, but it is the way the stupid situation Australia has made for itself.
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
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Tooright
There were 173 dead and 100 injured survivors from the Victorian bushfire fiasco about 8 years ago.
I don’t see much to suggest that there has been any acknowledgement by any politicians that we need to adopt fire management strategies from the 1950s.
They don’t care.
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KK. They don’t care because:
• bushfire events are episodic and the public soon forgets if they weren’t personally affected
• bushfires affect relatively few people compared to a widespread blackout
• bushfires mainly impact regional areas and outer suburbs, not entire cities/states in the way a full scale blackout or series of rolling blackouts can
• that severe bushfire season you referred to was in the domain of Dirty Dan who wants to crush the volunteer brigades on behalf of his union mates, hence no action??(maybe)
When Melbourne or Sydney blacks out, the public and politicians will soon sit up and take notice, and the authorities’ thin excuses will be thrown back in their faces. Governments and power authorities will be dragged kicking and screaming towards common sense, but fatalities and the mass collapse of modern life expectations will have to be the catalysts. Expect nothing from the politicians until the public wakes up from its current trance.
People’s minds will focus when the trains stop, the lifts jam, the traffic lights fail, the sewers overflow, the water stops, the food goes rotten and no financial transactions are possible. Get your popcorn ready.
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The last paragraph is a beauty!
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KK
You are probably correct. It may take thousands of deaths.
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9th anniversary in a few days KK.
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Anyone remember the Enron scandal re: California electricity? Here’s some of Wiki’s sanitized version:
“As the FERC report concluded, market manipulation was only possible as a result of the complex market design produced by the process of partial deregulation. Manipulation strategies were known to energy traders under names such as “Fat Boy”, “Death Star”, “Forney Perpetual Loop”, “Ricochet”, “Ping Pong”, “Black Widow”, “Big Foot”, “Red Congo”, “Cong Catcher” and “Get Shorty”.[11] Some of these have been extensively investigated and described in reports.
Megawatt laundering is the term, analogous to money laundering, coined to describe the process of obscuring the true origins of specific quantities of electricity being sold on the energy market. The California energy market allowed for energy companies to charge higher prices for electricity produced out-of-state. It was therefore advantageous to make it appear that electricity was being generated somewhere other than California.[citation needed]
Overscheduling is a term used in describing the manipulation of capacity available for the transportation of electricity along power lines. Power lines have a defined maximum load. Lines must be booked (or scheduled) in advance for transporting bought-and-sold quantities of electricity. “Overscheduling” means a deliberate reservation of more line usage than is actually required and can create the appearance that the power lines are congested. Overscheduling was one of the building blocks of a number of scams. For example, the Death Star group of scams played on the market rules which required the state to pay “congestion fees” to alleviate congestion on major power lines. “Congestion fees” were a variety of financial incentives aimed at ensuring power providers solved the congestion problem. But in the Death Star scenario, the congestion was entirely illusory and the congestion fees would therefore simply increase profits.[citation needed]
In a letter sent from David Fabian to Senator Boxer in 2002, it was alleged that:
“There is a single connection between northern and southern California’s power grids. I heard that Enron traders purposely overbooked that line, then caused others to need it. Next, by California’s free-market rules, Enron was allowed to price-gouge at will.”[12]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis
Here’s more and there’s lots more on the net.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2005/feb/05/enron.usnews
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“Distribution problems”, presumably being a code that means not enough power being generated.
I have an idea. Any household that suffers a power failure caused by “distribution problems” gets the next 12 months of power for free. That might get the power company’s attention.
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Send DRM1 to DRED appliances in areas where politicians live.
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Can’t say that this statement didn’t amuse me –
“There are a lot fuses blowing in the hot weather and a significant power pull with people having put in air-conditioners they didn’t tell us about,” Mr Armstrong said. — The Age
So, Mr Armstrong, are you saying that had they reported those AC units, you could have supplied the electricity okay? Are you seriously saying that you “under fused” the lines because you didn’t think the extra power would be needed? [SNIP. Great point, just stop there!]
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The haves and the have nots
There is something seriously bad going on in Australia, and it needs correcting
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The biggest problem in solving a problem is to first define it.
Your last line does that.
” there is something seriously wrong …….”
For too many people, their lives and fears are what they experience on their mobile phone or the net.
They can’t relate to the reality that despite the fact that no gun is visible in the theft they are still being robbed.
Politicians and their backers have taken this country for a ride and when things get a bit tight they just borrow a bit more on our Aussiemate credit card.
They have played us for fools.
KK
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Bad
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Has anyone else had one of these – an offer from the RACV to register and promise to do your bit to protect the electricity grid by limiting your power use.
https://www.racv.com.au/in-your-home/home-energy/help-the-grid.html
If the grid goes down, it will all YOUR fault for not doing your bit to adapt to the third world sh#thole of Oz we are soon to inhabit.
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