Two researchers looked at the ten main countries in East Africa in the last fifty years and compared global temperatures to a database of wars, conflicts and refugees.
They found that regional drought and global temperatures didn’t cause wars or drive the total number of displaced people. The things that did were rapid population growth, poor economic times, and political instability.
“What our study suggests is the failure of political systems is the primary cause of conflict and displacement of large numbers of people.”
Thus, if you love peace, it’s better to defend free speech and the constitution than to use cloth shopping bags and change your light globes.
Climate change is not a key cause of conflict
The Conversation, Mark Maslin
…
Probably the most surprising thing about this study is that sometimes academics test hypotheses and publish sensible conclusions.
In our recent paper, my student Erin Owain and I decided to test the climate-conflict hypothesis, using East Africa as our focus. The region is already very hot and very poor, making it especially vulnerable to climate change (in fact neighbouring Chad is by some measures the single most vulnerable country in the world).
As the planet warms, East Africa’s seasonal rains are expected to become much more unpredictable. … One study led by the European Commission found that declining rainfall over the past century may have reduced GDP across Africa by 15-40% compared with the rest of the developing world.
The evidence from East Africa is that no single factor can fully explain conflict and the displacement of people. Instead, conflict seems to be linked primarily to long-term population growth, short-term economic recessions and extreme political instability.
If they had compared human CO2 emissions as well, they’d probably find that CO2 causes peace. Since CO2 emissions are linked to higher GDPs (especially in poor nations) it’s not much of a leap to say that in Africa, producing CO2 would probably lead to better economies (more economic development) and less conflict.
As CO2 rose, life expectancy increased too. (Perhaps they can study that in their next paper?).
Does climate change cause refugees?
“As for refugees, over 90% can be explained by PDSI [Palmer Drought Severity Index] lagged by 1 year was significant, population growth lagged by 10 years, economic growth lagged by a year and political stability lagged by 2 years.”
The researchers think that “climate change” causes an increase in refugees, as there were more refugees when the climate got drier in East Africa. But they need to separate “climate change” and drought. The link of refugees to drought is probably real, but IPCC approved climate models don’t understand what drives droughts, and can’t predict drought trends. Medieval droughts used to be a lot worse, Australia has had megadroughts for the last thousand years and European droughts in the past 2000 years were also worse and globally droughts haven’t increased in the last 60 years. There goes that correlation.
Plus, a warmer world is a wetter one. What evaporates up, must come down again — though no one is very good at predicting where.
Droughts may increase refugees, but “climate change”, defined as a pop-cult IPCC approved term, doesn’t.
REFERENCE
Owain EL and Maslin, MA (2018) Assessing the relative contribution of economic, political and environmental factors on past conflict and the displacement of people in East Africa, Palgrave Communications, volume 4, Article number: 47, doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0096-6 [Full paper available]
… no indeed, just death.
Is the refutation of a spurious assertion a distraction? Never mind Africa. Focus instead on The Green-reaper.
Deadly, impoverishing, dogma driven, “consensus” imposed UN ‘Paris swamp’ clima-politics is directly responsible for 48,000 excess winter deaths in the UK this winter and 31,800 (2016 – 17).
80
Yes but think of how they can use it as an excuse to start any war the Elite want, and blame it on something amorphous and mirage-like…like ISIS and Al Quaeda…
Whoops…off to re-education camp for me….
31
say Climate change is not a key cause of conflict 10x quickly
you won’t need an espresso
20
You’ve got it all wrong. Those were all caused by Russian bots, white privilege, gender non-fluidity, and manspreading.
30
Wars have been a significant factor in human life throughout recorded history and beforehand. How anyone could tie them with co2 levels is beyond comprehension. Did Napoleon, Caesar, the Kaiser, Hitler, et al, ask for a co2 reading before marching off?
200
Napoleon and Hitler would have done well to check the advance weather reports for Moscow. They were hit hard by -40C without clothes to protect their troops. In one night on Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow, 13,000 Italian teenage soldiers were frozen into statues while on guard.
That’s the problem with calling every hot spell disastrous runaway tipping point Global Warming. You have a real problem with Global Cooling. Where humans and plants can adapt very easily to heat, really cold weather is not survivable. As Dr Patrick Moore pointed out. a naked human will die of hypothermia at 18C. We are not built for cold weather.
Cold is our enemy, so we are told the planet has to be cooled? The amount of alleged global heating so far was not even detectable a century ago. I think generations past would marvel at our insane spending over a possible half a degree variation in a hundred years. There is a reason the tens of thousands of medieval windmills in Holland were dismantled. Coal. It seems we have to learn the lessons all over again now that we are masters of the universe.
170
Wars are caused by”Cowardly,Lying,Do Nothing,Career Politicians”and NOT by the weather.Send the Pollies to the war zones,instead of our fine young men and women.There would NEVER be another war,ever again.
50
Many wars were caused by food shortages.
10
Geoffrey Blainey’s ‘Causes of War,’ a study of all the international
wars since 1700 and decision makers’ reasons to embark. No mention
of CO2.
http://caffeinesymposium.blogspot.com.au/2010/07/history-book-causes-of-war-by-geoffrey.html
90
Alas, climate change is proven to be insignificant in causing wars and strife. This is a good finding. Truth peeks out from behind the curtain.
160
But I bet the next Ice Age will result in wars & strife. I mean who would want to live in Canada (Ice Sheet bound) and other high latitude northern hemisphere nations?
50
It is simply one more fact to be ignored by the green elite. Don’t you know that increase in CO2 causes everything? They can’t think of anything it can’t do. Correction: they can’t think.
80
While it’s true that CO2 does not cause wars or conflict, relatively fast changes in climate resulting in declining food stuffs and more difficult living conditions most certainly DO set up conditions for increased conflict, social strife/change, and of course increased migration. The history during the LIA makes a pretty compelling case for that argument IMO.
90
Who needs a war when UK excess deaths of 31,800 (winter 2016 – 17) and 48,000 (winter 2017 – 18) are doing so well extinguishing life? It’s the realisation of pure Green dogma.
Pause for thought. While there may be such a thing as a just war, the immorality of climatism is unsurpassed in the 21st Century.
110
Aren’t “relatively fast changes in climate” typically referred to as “weather”?
120
So your saying that the LIA was a weather event?
21
This could descend into a rather silly argument. Climate is “average weather” over some rather fuzzy period — 15 years, 30 years, 100 years? But “weather” is also “average weather”, over a rather fuzzy period — “Warm spring we had this year”, “wasn’t it cold last night?”, “bucketed down at lunchtime”. At what point does a remark turn from being about the weather to being about the climate?
IMO, Spetzer86’s comment is glib: would RAH’s comment have been any better if it said “relatively long runs of bad weather resulting …”? But RAH’s follow-up isn’t much chop either. What was the LIA if it wasn’t weather?
The fractal nature of weather — unpredictable at all scales — means that “weather” is a good enough term for all of it.
40
The difference between weather and climate is dependent on what the oscillations are doing at any given time.
For example, when the PDO entered its negative phase in July last year it can be counted as climate change, with the ramification of a change in the weather.
30
Well that just leaves me flummoxed. So climate isn’t a long-term average of the weather? It’s something you can read off a PDO or ENSO graph from moment to moment? Most bizarrely of all you say that the change in the weather was a consequence of a change in climate. It has been a while since I was at high school, but that surely has the cart driving the horse. No?
30
As you know correlation doesn’t prove causation, but in July last year the SH subtropical ridge collapsed and we are back in the 1950s.
Natural variables rule, have you heard of the 60 year cycle?
30
‘So climate isn’t a long-term average of the weather? ‘
Its not a coincidence that 30 years is regarded as climate, within that time span we should see a trend, but we need to get away from this fixation with temperatures and concentrate on the oscillations.
What do you make of the hiatus?
10
Its easy to link Ethiopia with mass starvation because of El Nino, but that is a thing of the past, Beijing’s Belt and Road has made Ethiopia the fastest growing country in Africa.
30
Ethiopia is building a very large dam and never again will they want for clean water or abundant energy, but Egypt is unhappy at the prospect of less water flowing down the Nile.
At the moment Cairo is taking a wait and see approach after negotiations broke down, telling their farmers to curtail broad acre agriculture in anticipation of a worst outcome.
10
BTW I am about to leave for a delivery in Mississauga, ON. When in Canada I minimize my use of data on the company phone and besides that I’ll be driving all night. So I’ll be off line and unable to respond.
But the LIA was climatic event lasting from about 1300 to 1850 AD. It was characterized by a relatively quick cooling of weather for an extended period the manifestation of which did not occur everywhere at the same time. But it was severe enough and quick enough in Europe that it did cause many changes. The age old staple of wheat was to a large part supplanted by the potato in much of Europe for example. Peasant revolts, revolution, and extended wars characterize this period in Western Europe. https://www.preceden.com/timelines/37293-western-civilization-1300-1800
When people are struggling to survive they are more likely to fight and revolt against the existing system than in times of plenty. The Monarchies lost a lot of ground during this period. Both the French and American Revolutions occurred during this period.
30
Except, of course, that it took Europeans two hundred years to accept potatoes, as “everyone knew” that potatoes cause leprosy. Just look at them… Prior to the French revolution, Phillip and Marie -Antoinette had the royal gardens at Nuellie planted out with potatoes, and had the guards dismissed in the night hoping the peasants would see their value and steal them. ” Let them eat potatoes” should have been her quote. The Russian Czar had potato salad in Amsterdam, and brought them back to Russia, but the peasants refused to plant them, and revolted. The Irish were more afraid of the tax man than leprosy, so they took them up big time, unlike the Brits. And , of course, the Catholic Church banned tomatoes as promoting licentious behaviour. So it is not a surprise that our semi literate society has had troubled accepting genetically modified foods, while they parade their genetically modifies dogs/wolves.
40
I don’t accept that all GMOs are safe. While there are some parallels, I dont think that any form of luddite-like behaviour is always bad.
I think people will look back on use of wifi inside our houses, use of mm wave 5G, and microwaves to heat up and distort proteins and wonder how seriously stupid we were bathing is so much RF….it will come home to roost one day, like a 4 tonne chook landing on your house….
40
When you’re referring to GMO’s and genetically modified dogs/wolves you’re referring to very different processes. And there are well documented issues with GMO’s.
21
The next taxpayer-funded study will cast doubt on the well accepted CO2-pirate correlation.
Then there’s lots of other studies to be done; this is similar to the social services business model, you create a supposed problem then set about pretending to solve it while actually perpetuating it.
Even our new defence chief believes that CC™ is causing an “unstable planet” along with “extremists” and “assertive states”.
80
That chart is hilarious on so many levels – using an estimate for the number of pirates, the fact that the Pirate axis is non-ordered, and the fake precision of the correlation… it’s gold. It’s been some time since I saw it, but every time I do it makes me grin.
10
It’s as though common sense doesn’t exist with academics.
Unless a study is conducted, they can’t figure out cause->effect.
80
After listening to Josh Frydenbergon 2GB today I’m convinced climate change (the real one that is, not the mythical man-made one) causes severe mental disorders in both major parties. We keep voting them in we get what we deserve – crash and burn.
110
Unfortunately our system of voting for politicians is a system design failure.
The problem is threefold:
1. The type of person who is attracted to politics, is the type of person who should be nowhere near such power and authority.
2. There are no qualifications or skill required to be a politician. There is no university degree in “Running a Country”.
3. Voters vote for whoever gives them the most. Failure to vote this way means you’ll get shafted. So everyone tries to vote for their own self interest, then hope for the best.
80
That’s why people like Cory Bernardi who I would consider is a decent person who would make Australia great again if given the power and authority to do so, will never become PM, nor anyone like him. Again that’s why we will have to suffer the crash and burn scenario to learn the lessons, and eventually forget them again as history keeps showing over and over.
50
Even though it is clearly NOT in their own long run self interest. Two free hamburgers today and starving next Tuesday because no one wants to make hamburgers for free.
30
Here is the interview:
https://www.2gb.com/alan-jones-tells-energy-minister-some-home-truths-youve-sold-your-political-soul/
40
Very interesting, thank you for the link.
20
It is hard to understand how a member of our parliament can offer blatant misinformation like that.
The price of gas is irrelevant to the basic issue at hand, excessive power prices.
The one and only true focus for where all of our money has gone is the unethical and hidden support given to the renewables industry.
The renewables industry is a money making venture for private, disguised capital which makes so little useable electricity and draws huge subsidies that it has on occasion been referred to as a system of Subsidy Farming.
What is happening is certainly immoral, it is arguably unethical.
The voters are being deliberately misled but I can’t understand why the obvious abuse of trust has not been sanctioned by the state.
What’s happening is contrary to the best interests of the community and it is deliberate, contravening engineering standards.
How do they get away with this abuse of trust?
KK
90
UK taxpayers fund studies like this, as we do in AUstralia – perhaps the next grant should be to evaluate the cost/benefits of these studies. Some more researchers like Dr Bjorn Lomborg are needed badly.
40
What should be included in such a study is the cost/benefit of the massive amounts of funding (“bribes”) many scientists have been receiving and still receiving for participating in the greatest scam in the history of mankind. If the truth be know, those scientists ought to behind bars (along with the leaders of the scam) for the simple reason they have betrayed their profession.
50
As I suspected the OPCW finds no evidence of chemical weapons in Syria after the sites were bombed by US and allies. More proof that politicians/bureaucrats & military “intelligence” cause wars, not CO2, chemical weapons, WMDs or whatever else one wants to add. If anything history has once shown that WNDs ended a major war, not started one. If left unabated so will the next time along with much of mankind. It’s now clear there is a cancerous pattern spreading among “intellectuals”; up-side-down. I recall George Orwell said “There are some ideas so absurd that only an intellectual could believe them.” We are witnessing it today on a grand scale in so many facets of our lives.
80
‘It’s now clear there is a cancerous pattern spreading among “intellectuals”; up-side-down ….’
Australia is in need of a cultural revolution.
40
We are already experiencing a cultural revolution. I suspect you meant to say we need another one.
60
Yes, a people’s revolt, bottom up.
30
But that’s where the current cultural revolution is coming from, from the people, bottom up. What we really need is an awakening by the people. That’s not happening at the moment because if it did most people wouldn’t be voting for either of the two major parties who are supporting the current cultural revolution that’s destroying Australia.
40
The Westminster system has failed and may need restructuring, a Republic might give the people a voice.
The masses are blissfully unaware that CO2 does not cause global warming, so we have to educate them though the MSM. This war is being fought on many fronts and I cannot see where the breakthrough will come, but if we could get equal time on the ABC it would be a good start.
Its not the fault of the people, they have been bombarded with propaganda for decades and its embedded in the education system, so its a cultural evolution. The cultural revolution is just around the corner and I’m not carrying a little red book.
50
I agree the Westminster has its failings but a Republic will not make any significant difference. The people have to use their brains, research, study and think before they vote regardless of what “democratic” system is in place. People should not just believe everything they are being told but they do because it’s the lazy thing to do. I am certain if the schools, government and others started teaching the earth was flat most people will end up believing it. The flat earth group is growing as it is despite all the evidence to discount their stupid ideas. Of course in time as the predicted CAGW events fail to materialise more and more people will become sceptical but that might take decades by which time its far too late. If we are to have even a ray of hope to turn things around the next federal election must reject both major parties from obtaining majority rule with the ACP playing a key role. It’s might be our last chance. I won’t be holding by breath though.
40
PeterS, I consider the flat earth mob are made more stupid by the explosion of tech ( namely smart phones ) which make people feel smarter and more powerful, while removing their privacy and decreasing their IQ as they can google pretty much anything , but it doesn’t require actual thought, just a finger on a keypad…and this lack of exercise of the grey matter can only make people dumber and more ignorant.
Now the political class and MSM can manipulate dumb ignorant people with impunity, and those people for the most part, are none the wiser…..
The bit I don’t understand is surely having a society of thick and muddle headed humans is not really much of a step up for society, unless your ultimate aim is to rule the masses from your “throne”, while throwing bread and circuses for them, but of what benefit is it to have a kingdom comprised mostly of moronic intellect-level people?
10
Our best chance of getting the politicians to face reality is a universal Informal vote.
The ACP has little future, a marginal player at best, unless the Coalition splinter group causes an uproar, giving the ACP a chance to support them and reap the political benefits.
20
Agree el gordo. That’s what I’ve been hoping for. It would really be nice if the rest of the real conservatives of the LNP jumped ship and joined the ACP forcing what’s left of the LNP to reconsider their policies and align with the ACP or stay apart and die as a party. I sincerely hope the split does happen. Even if it does and the LNP decides to be stubborn and not align with the ACP then at least we can look forward down the track of seeing the ACP grow and the LNP die. Perhaps the LNP might even consider joining the ALP. After all didn’t Turnbull initially try to join them before joining the Libs? If they did join the ACP should quickly become the alternative major party, perhaps with he help of ON, which might be a better overall outcome since they would not have to deal with the crap that’s left over from the LNP. In any case let the split happen soon so we can see some real changes to avoid the nation heading in the direction of a crash and burn scenario.
50
The ginger group has given Turnbull until Xmas or they will take away his big chair.
‘Tony Abbott says he would “expect” Malcolm Turnbull to have a sense of whether he can win the election six months out from the poll, following Barnaby Joyce’s call for the Prime Minister to consider stepping aside if the Coalition’s poll numbers to do not improve by Christmas.’
Oz
So imagine a reinvigorated Coalition going into the next election, Cory should offer his support now in anticipation of that eventuality. The ACP could then ride the wave of mass enlightenment.
10
I believe it’s too late for the LNP to change without a split. It’s effectively already split from within. I can’t see it happen without causing major fireworks risking the party destroying itself, which is what typically happens in such instances. Perhaps someone with a really strong conviction could replace Turnbull and smash heads together to turn LNP around without the fireworks. I don’t see anyone of that calibre at the moment but it’s possible. Time will tell.
50
There is no stomach in the Coalition for a coup, but if Turnbull fell on his sword then its up to the Party to choose a new leader.
The PM could steal Shorten’s ambition to join up with Beijing’s Belt and Road, that should get the Coalition over the line.
10
There are some important factors in play that could, after a leadership change and hopefully before the six months is up, change the government’s prospects to win the 2016 election.
These relate to a court case in Perth WA commenced mid-2017 and next hearing end of May 2018 relating to an AWU illegal fund. The other is a civil case pending on the same matter and many others arising from investigations over past years involving police in WA and Victoria, and in more recent years by former police officer and investigative journalist Michael Smith.
See the long history and evidence gathered at Michael Smith News website.
40
Why would you vote informal when you could vote for Australian Conservatives?
An informal vote is just an expression of disgust for all politics.
A vote for Australian Conservatives at least expresses a positive opinion for a political manifesto.
60
I agree Peter C. In fact everyone should take the next election very seriously. Anyone who throws their vote away where there is a viable party called the ACP who has the correct polices on many fronts is being delinquent. They are our only hope of a change for the better. Otherwise, we all might as well forget it, sit back, buy plenty of popcorn and watch the country crash and burn under a majority government lead by either the LNP or ALP+Greens. The ACP is not really our version of a Trump since the ACP is a minor party but it certainly is the best hope we have for a hung parliament causing one of the two major parties to come to their senses, provided the ACP sticks to their guns.
30
Steve we have to get past this idea that the electorate is stupid, they are simply misinformed and need educating.
30
el gordo I understand what you are saying but you also have to realise people are stupid not because they are not necessarily intrinsically stupid but because despite all the facts that are available for all to see end up ignoring them and making stupid decisions due to their gullibility. Such ignorance can’t be blamed on the educators alone. Much of the blame has to be shared with the people being taught who are too lazy to verify what they are being taught or told is true or not. History should have taught that lessons centuries ago but for some reason we tend to ignore history and repeat the same mistakes over and over ad infinitum. Why else are the two major parties now are preparing to turn on the taps to bribe the voters at the next election? People are gullible and ignorant and so will make the stupid decision to vote for the party that will offer them biggest monetary incentives despite the fact their budget projections are not only based on many false assumptions they are fiction as proven year after year. Even those who vote for the runner up in the bribing stakes are stupid since it’s only a slightly lesser level of stupidity. It’s a bit like one definition of insanity when it comes to deciding which major party one should vote for. It doesn’t matter in the end. They are both fatal to the nation. The only way to break the nexus is to stop voting for them and vote for far more sensible party. The ACP at the moment fits that bill very nicely. But due to voter gullibility and ignorance most will not even give the ACP a thought let alone a chance.
Yes if we educated people of the truth perhaps things would change but there is no way one can educate enough of the people outside the education system, which itself is controlled by the very parties that are disseminating false information. People have to educate themselves and as I said many times think for themselves and check the facts and evidence to verify that our teaching institutions and the politicians are telling the truth or not. The blind leading the blind is never a good idea.
30
The big failing here isn’t the Westminster system as such. It is the specifically Australian additions to it of mandatory voting and the preference system, the latter being a nightmare that most don’t engage in as it is so complicated. Hence, many have no idea where their votes end up.
31
‘The only way to break the nexus is to stop voting for them and vote for far more sensible party.’
I’m in the seat of Calare, who should I vote for?
Keep in mind that all my friends and family think I’m stupid for voting informally, they say its a ‘wasted vote’ and besides ‘global warming is real’.
20
El Gordo,
A couple of thoughts – stupidity is making an uninformed decision that aggravates a problem, when there was plenty of info around on how to avoid it.
Using drugs, driving while drunk, voting for any of the 3 main parties who are are all joined at the hip and toxic to Australia, is another.
PeterS makes a fair point, people have to try and find out what alternatives there are. I had a similar conversation with an intelligent and wise cabbie, but as the ACP wasn’t available in the Riverina area of NSW, he couldnt vote for them so I advised an informal vote and why that’s the best option for him. People arent all stupid, but they arent deep thinkers and need a clear and visible alternative.
Another point – if Bernardi is serious about becoming a force,rather than a niche party, he best make himself known ( he isnt…). I suspect there would be plenty of people who would vote for him as a viable alternative as there are a lot of people sick of the seagull-like left wing tribal PC rubbish that conservative middle australia has had to stomach for years. There is a deep seated anger and frustration and people are just itching to stick the main parties in the eye, as, quite rightly, they appear to have sold out the population to their chaos-loving globalist pay masters.
The next election will be a watershed. Most of the population dont really stray far from how they have voted in the past, and with 16-year old youngsters thinking Communism is “cool”, as the older generation we MUST loudly educate the younger ones how the world really works. Start with how the Communist Bolsheviks murdering the Romanovs in Russia in 1914 and progress to Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and Hitler.
People need to understand history – if we need to fund an app ( so they will watch it on their damn phones ) explaining the evils of the leftists, then so be it.
40
OriginalSteve, the masses can only be “educated” if they are willing to listen and learn. By and large they don’t want to because they don’t care. History to most is boring; not for me though. They only care when it’s too late. The pain threshold I believe hasn’t been reached yet for most of them. We are still a fairly well off society with many people still hankering after the latest smart-phone (I’m still happy with my old S5), big screen TVs soon to be 8k (I’m still happy with my HD), latest car with assisted driving gadgetry (I’m still happy with just cruise control), etc.. I only upgrade when I have to but most people I know still upgrade when they don’t have to but feel it’s necessary because it makes them feel good. That’s why we don’t see street demonstrations about high electricity prices. They are not high enough yet and so the government isn’t that worried at the moment. We need more pain, and we will get it, especially with the ALP+Greens. Once things start to go really pear shaped in a much bigger way perhaps then people will want to be “educated”. Of course the smarter way is to recognise the failings much earlier by learning from history and studying the real science and acting accordingly well in advance even if it appears unnecessary at the time. That’s all too much hard work and boring for most people. I’m the opposite and in fact consider my main failing in life as striving for perfection. I hate it when companies applies the 80/20 rule improperly especially in software development – they use it for the wrong reasons and in the wrong way. Sort of like how people vote for political parties if you get my meaning. I on the other hand look at ACP and it’s clear as anything they should get my vote, and they will if they are present in my electorate. Yet I can almost guarantee that they will not be able to win the seat. Clearly most voters are not hurting enough yet to bring them out of their slumber.
10
A massive informal vote will not make them take any notice of popular opinion,just means that fewer votes are necessary to claim “victory”. What would give the powers cause to consider their actions would be the introduction of “Right of Recall” powers to the electorate as is available in some Canadian and US jurisdictions.
80
Agree Destroyer, an informal vote means 3/5ths of bu@@er-all. Your vote is discarded totally. May as well not vote. At least a vote for ACP gives that party hope, and a voting base, (hopefully) for the election after.
Voting for either of the 2 majors will not see any change. Both parties are content to watch Rome burn.
We have to be willing to look elsewhere for the direction that this country needs. If that means that the Turnbull Liberal party is destroyed…then so be it.
70
‘May as well not vote.’
Its compulsory.
The putters reckon Turnbull will be PM at the next election and Julie Bishop will become the Opposition leader after Labor wins.
10
el gordo:
You do NOT have to vote. You must attend a polling booth on election day and accept a vote card or two (or ask for them as a postal voter). You can leave these blank and add them to the box, write your candid opinion of the parties on the card or vote in a confused manner (e.g. vote 1 for 2 or more candidates/parties). Your votes will be discarded as informal, which often runs at 5% of the total.
Should you vote for a minor party, and preference the least bad (in your opinion) major, you will deprive the major party of the money they get for each first preference (you do remember voting for that, do you?) and give the minor party more funds to fight the big boys. Rest assured that the party machine will notice any drop in that income and speedily give their candid opinion to the leader etc.
40
G3 in my electorate the Nationals romp home every time, so after reading your sage advice I guess I’l vote for a major.
The ACP isn’t running
30
Thanks Graeme No.3 for the note about preferential voting allowing minor parties to receive more funding at the expense of major parties. That will make me feel better when I vote for a minor party. I will never vote for a major party ever again, at least not until one of them changes for the better in a big enough way – probably not for a very long time if ever. I hope ACP runs in my electorate.
20
I’ve decided to give up my Informal ways and vote Nats, Andrew Gee wants to see coal as the mainstay at Mt Piper power station. Its only political lip service to the miners, nevertheless he has probably signed up with the Coalition ginger group and that gives me some hope.
30
Control of resources ,food etc and money and power kills ,Co2 just makes my beer frothy .
70
Many governments aim to appease,
The climate-change fake expertise,
That no one can doubt,
Co2 causes drought,
More conflicts and more refugees.
140
and more fees,
until the minds of voters turn,
hopefully before we crash and burn.
90
A bob each way:
1. I’d go easy on cloth shopping bags. They’re the genuine article … renewable & reusable.
2. Drought-proofing for us is a 48mt bore sunk into the aquifer, a main with hydrants to all points of the farm, pump and sprinklers – all made possible by fossil fuels.
Cheers
60
Just remember to wash the cloth bags as they become pretty dirty and unhygienic otherwise. That requires water, cleaning stuff and heat of course.
51
Mrs H carefully folds the grey bags and drops them into the charity bin. They reuse them.
20
I keep good plastic bags, stored against the day they are banned or made very expensive to buy. They make useful bin-liners, are good for collecting apples and pears and for tying in fruit trees to rattle in the wind (if any!) to deter fruit-thieving birds and especially fruit-wrecking sulphur-crested cockatoos. I have many soft ones that I’ve used for years to wrap my Christmas ornaments. I have even used them, torn open one side, as makeshift rain hats when caught out by an unexpected shower.
21
I’m already stocking up on the plastic bags every time I go to the supermarkets. I should end up eventually with a lifetime supply 🙂
The Greens can go and fmjioas tgupfagh!
51
African societies are utterly dysfunctional and always have been with or without colonisation (but better under colonisation). Conflict tends to be at random with or without reason.
In terms of great civilisational events natural climate change does have an influence.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/22/climate-and-human-civilization-for-the-past-4000-years/
63
There is the nebulous issue of IQ and global inequality, n’est ce pas? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_and_Global_Inequality
40
We are all out of Africa and the people of that continent are just as intelligent as any of us, give them a decent education and middle class existence and they will blossom.
Tribalism is the norm and evidenced by some terrible massacres, but in the fullness of time the tension can be reduced with the development of a greater middle class.
50
I beg to differ. They are already low IQ with starvation of the young and overbreeding making it worse. The highest IQ are a subset of Jews [why do you think they are hated?] with east Asians still above us Anglos.
Let google be your friend.
61
This is an article on Ashkenazi Jewish (Jews of European origin) intelligence.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jewish_intelligence
31
‘They are already low IQ with starvation of the young and overbreeding making it worse.’
Simple, develop a middle class and those problems should go away, but admittedly it may take a generation. The Ethiopian experiment will be closely watched.
The Australian aborigine is out of Africa and when Europeans discovered them they were stone age hunter gatherers, half starved most of the time. So their IQ would have been low.
Today a great many indigenous young men see gaol as a right of passage and I wonder how we could have got it so wrong.
20
Yet there are also those who are now in the professional groups and have obviously used their chances to develop from their original background.
The Windrush scandal in tbe UK reminds me of the West Indians who came to our town in quite large numbers. They worked hard at all sorts of jobs (bus conductors I well remember) and have now risen to the professions in the town. They are the sort of migrants who are really good to have.
31
‘Let google be your friend.’
Indigenous Australians have smaller brains.
https://www.tremr.com/Duck-Rabbit/the-iqs-of-australian-aborigines
20
It is absurd to think that the same selection pressures that selected for numerous human physical characteristics such as skin colour, eye shape and body format such as tall and thin or short and fat (related to living in hot or cold climate) didn’t also select for intelligence.
The brain is the most energy intensive organ of the body and nature wastes nothing, including unneeded intelligence.
In an environment in which animal food was easy to get you only needed to be able to run faster or longer than your preferred food animal and faster than the slowest member of your tribe that might be getting chased by a predator animal. Natural selection chooses athleticism over intelligence.
Those that evolved in environments with great climactic extremes with food shortages in winter needed to plant and harvest food at appropriate times and manage herds of animals.This required long term planning and in these cases natural selection favoured intelligence over athleticism.
11
“money and politics”!
theirABC has a “new” Big Idea – it involves CAGW, money and politics! it is horrendous from start to finish:
25 Apr: ABC Big Ideas: Climate Crisis – Saving landscapes?
PHOTO CAPTION: While carbon credits help preserve degraded landscapes, a similar scheme of so-called ‘reef credits’ is proposed for Great Barrier Reef catchments.
There could be a welcome side effect of carbon credits. Will this scheme aimed at fixing the climate crisis also help to save rural and degraded landscapes? In recent years, Australian farmers and other landholders have been signing up for ‘carbon farming’ credits, including being paid not to clear native vegetation on their properties. In places like western NSW, it is transforming otherwise degraded and largely unproductive country. A similar scheme of so-called ‘reef credits’ is proposed for Great Barrier Reef catchments.
Heartlands Conversations presented by The Blue Mountains Music Festival. 17 March 2018
Speakers
James Schultz – CEO and co-founder GreenCollar
Dr Barry Traill – Director of Outback Australia, a joint project of the Pew Charitable Trusts and the Nature Conservancy (Wikipedia: Traill is currently Director of The Pew Charitable Trusts ‘ Australian Outback to Oceans program and joined Pew Environment Group in 2007)
Andrew Macintosh – Professor of Law, Australian National University
Chair: Gregg Borschmann – Senior Producer, ABC RN Breakfast
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/climate-crisis-%E2%80%93-saving-landscapes/9543336
reminder – ***Barry Traill was involved with this:
Oct 2016: Warwick Hughes: Stopping the Australian Coal Export Boom
Jo Nova has a blog – US donors funding activists to shut down Australian mines, ports and rail, approved by Hillary’s right-hand-man? Nobody there yet has referred to this stunning 2011 pdf report by the organizers that sets out their detailed multi-$million plans – Stopping the Australian Coal Export Boom – 17 pages must read only 3.75MB. The Rockefellers and Pew were in the campaign by 2011…
FROM COMMENTS:
Beachgirl: Acknowledgements from page 2 are worth listing online as text.
This proposal has been developed by John Hepburn (Greenpeace Australia Pacific), with significant assistance from Bob Burton (Coalswarm) and Sam Hardy (Graeme Wood Foundation). The strategy and this proposal have incorporated extensive input from participants of the first Australian National Coal Convergence, held in the Blue Mountains in October 2011. Particular thanks are due to Mark Ogge (Beyond Zero Emissions), Paul Oosting (Getup!), Ellie Smith, Holly Creenaune(United Voice), ***BARRY TRAILL (PEW), Julie Macken (Greenpeace), Drew Hutton (Lock the Gate), Kirsty Ruddock (Environmental Defenders Office NSW), Jo Bragg (Environmental Defenders Office Queensland), Patricia Julien (Mackay Conservation Group), Carmel Flint (Nature Conservation Council), Chantelle James (Capricornia Conservation Council), Mark Wakeham (Environment Victoria), Kate Lee (United Voice), Geoff Evans (Mineral Policy Institute), Richard Denniss (The Australia Institute), Belinda Fletcher (Greenpeace) and Georgina Woods (CANA) for comment, critique and input on various drafts.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=4758
30
What is interesting and/or disturbing is to look through the last paragraph on Pat’s post and to ask yourself ‘Who are all these people?’ and ‘Where did all these organisations come from?’
If you look through the list we can see that Greenpeace crops up a lot, along with the variation of ‘Greenpeace Australia Pacific’ (Splitters!). We also get Getup!, because of course we do and then we are into all the fringe subgroups who deep down could really be anyone.
This is how Lefties grow and how they convince the rest of the population that they belong to legitimate organisations. A conservative would form a group for the purpose of bringing people together for mutual good. Sporting clubs are probably good examples. Lefties form groups because their deep driving motivation is to be in charge because, to their minds, everything would be better if only THEY were in charge.
They are power structures, either created for that purpose or taken over from within by more ‘motivated’ members who take advantage of the more casual and innocent members of their groups.
Actual membership of these groups is incredibly questionable. To return to the sporting club comparison a sporting club can be easily judged by the number of teams they are putting out on the field on the weekend. The teams are the rational. Being chairman of a club with no teams will only get you kudos from the ill-informed.
With a Leftie group it is all about the claimed membership. GetUp! claims to have massive amounts of supporters due to their selective accounting that claims anyone who as much as sneezes in their direction as an interested and supporting member of the public. With that paper membership behind them and a fancy letter head to match and they become a sort of chicken and egg organisation who should be listened to because they have scores of members and then must continue to be listened to because they ‘spoke’ on a topic previously.
If you play the Leftie Power game correctly you can do very well for yourself despite owning and controlling effectively nothing. Prime example of this was the Anna-Rose woman who was head of the Australian Youth Climate Coalition. Impressive title, but how did this group come into being? The Lefties held a love in and all the ‘elected heads’ of scores of little nothing university groups voted themselves a new level of government. AYCC? Sounds important, right? Best we listen to them and get this Anna-Rose young lady onto the ABC, right?
Yes, of course. Personally I put to you that the vast majority of AYCC members had no idea they were part of it and had even forgotten they belonged to the child groups as well.
So is this all a massive scam driven by egotistical little control freaks who would not otherwise survive in the outside world? I absolutely think so, but the MSM seems to disagree and people likes the one’s listed in Pat’s post seem to do very well for themselves out of it.
71
Opps – out of morbid curiosity I did a search on Anna-Rose to see which tax payers she is currently living off and discovered there shouldn’t be a hyphen in her name.
Instead she is Ms Rose, first name Anna.
Apologies.
50
We see this in action locally, Mudcrab. You describe it well.
11
O/T
Alan Jones roasts Josh Frydenberg.
https://www.2gb.com/alan-jones-tells-energy-minister-some-home-truths-youve-sold-your-political-soul/
51
Josh Frydenbergon is such a fool. Both major parties are completely together on this critical issue, which if left unchecked will destroy this once great nation.
90
Excellent find David , what a load of rubbish power prices have risen because of gas prices which by the way he said have become 50% cheaper under them .
No way will this mess get fixed until one of them fesses up that its renewables and the Ret and ideological driven premiers that drive up electricity prices .
100
BE WARNED – We are apparently getting another dose of Josh with Alan again next Thursday.
20
Alan did a great job but I hope he is even more prepared with bigger guns next time and ends up demolishing Josh Frydenberg completely. It wouldn’t be that hard as most of us know. In fact any one of us could turn Josh Frydenberg into a pretzel shaped blithering fool with both our hands tied behind our backs.
60
The one about gold-plated poles and wires was given a run as well.
20
Alan Jones the hypocrite, he leads the “Shut the Gate” movement to keep gas producers off properties.
The fact that we export gas from the NW Shelf and Gladstone, both a loooong way from Vic is irreverent. When the gas companies were floating their prospectuses they needed “take or pay” contracts to take to the bankers. AFAIK no Australian put in a bid for the gas. Even if they were forced by edict to sell into the Australian market, how do they get it to market? Neither Qld or NT need it. There are no LPG receiving terminals in the south and Australian coastal shipping is so crippled with union costs it would be cheaper to buy from Singapore anyway.
I’m typing while listening and Jones asks what price is needed to justify Snowy II. How dumb is he? A pumped hydro lives and dies on the ARBITRAGE between off peak when they store and peak when they sell, nominal price is irrelevant. That was when it was simple, now you can add when the wind blows and when it doesn’t. Who thinks electricity prices are going to become MORE stable?
40
Scam artists are busy today. I was listening to one on the phone, got a call waiting tone so I went to the other and sure enough it was a different scam so hung up on both of them. Sure sign of the way this nation is heading – down the plug hole since no one in authority is interested in stopping such scam artists. This is despite being on the “do not call” register, which I do know only applies to local calls. Trouble is the calls were both local anyway – I presume originating from overseas but appearing to be local. These are not donations. One impersonating NBN telling me my land line is about to be disconnected because I haven’t switched despite the fact NBN is still in the planning stage where I live, and the other looking for people to test their products. I’m still waiting for a call from Josh Frydenbergon’s office to try and convince me to believe in the renewables scam.
50
Sigh I miss the umpteen daily calls from Fred or Sheila from Mumbai now that I’ve ditched the landline and gone over to mobile phones .
My landline was costing between $40 to $50 a month but the same company offered me a sim only plan of $10 a month so we now only pay $20 a month and I have unlimited calls and texts and SMS etc plus one and a half gig of data between us .
50
My landline is now included with my lousy NBN service. I’m old fashioned, if I’m not home I don’t answer the phone.
But back to Peter’s post I was embarrassed today when I got a call with a break before they spoke [normally a give away] and then a “Is that Mr Hanrahan?” in a hesitant voice. I did the smart A bit “If I am what is your business?” Turns out she was ringing people with registered bores close to the Army base where they operate Army Aviation. They are finding out the extent of ground water contamination from fire fighting foam which was used carelessly. Profuse apologies were in order. 🙁
50
My most common tactic is to stay silent and wait for them to say something. I used to be polite and say sorry I’m not interested but now I can’t be bothered. They annoy me first so I can annoy them second. If I see the same number again I don’t even bother to pick up the phone. If it’s that important they can leave a message, which they never do of course.
40
If you keep your wits about you they can be rather amusing.
I seem to be the right demographic these days to get cold called about life and funeral insurance.
If I am feeling nice I tell them that I plan to be a burden to society after I die and hence are not really all that interested in funeral insurance. When pressed about getting it to assist my Loved Ones I tell them that I don’t have any as I am completely unlovable.
Awkward Silence.
If I am not feeling nice I tell them I am going to live forever and go on to explain how I did that ceremony with the candles and the goat and that while it was slightly unethical I now had no need for life insurance.
Very Awkward Silence.
Yeah, monitor THAT for quality and coaching! 😀
30
No doubt the big climate shift which changed the game for modern humans was the sudden heave from the Younger Dryas to the Optimum. Maybe this is the source of those flood stories. Certainly, the changes of geography were rapid some eight thousand years back.
It’s said that the gradual drying of North East Africa caused the drift from open range to river which resulted in Egyptian civilisation. What we can say with a bit more confidence is that cooling episodes around 2200 BC and 1200 BC helped bring on dynastic and even civilisational collapse.
Overall, the big strains on civilisations are never simple, but a cooling climate belongs in the mix. The Bronze Age collapse and Greek Dark Age, the Migration Period, the LIA show plenty of evidence of war and pestilence through climate change. If Edward III and the Black Prince hadn’t been such chivalrous thugs maybe the Hundred Years War might have been averted. But it’s pretty hard to miss those weather woes of the 14th century.
The real problem and danger of the climate change lobby is that it consists of people who deny or ignore climate change. Which must be the biggest go-figure of all time.
30
Well what do you know? Same cause as 50 years agos, 100 years ago, 1,000 years ago, probably 5,000 years ago and maybe 10,000. Anyone for 100,000.
Interesting, people kill people. People cause refugees.
But what the heck, if they can make the guns kill people argument work maybe they can make the CO2 kills people argument work too. Or vice versa. Circular logic works. Just pick your starting point.
60
The refugee problem can’t get better, prolly worse.
I listen to many people including Stefan Molyneux who talks about, and interviews psychologists, about nationwide IQ. They say that the US military does not enlist recruits with below 87. They can’t even be trained to be a modern infantryman [fortunately the days of cannon fodder are past] . African nations generally are not much higher than that but when you add the birth boom after band aid and other charities and the fact that children are still undernourished in their early years you have whole nations in the dole queue.
And you think that kid next door is a problem?
40
You are no doubt correct. Yet think of what could be done if we could just get rid of the self-righteous who always gravitate toward positions of power for some reason while those with better judgment go toward productive positions, at least if conditions permit them to go that way.
I know of no reason it must be the way it is except human ignorance, moral weakness and similar flaws in people’s thinking.
20
My neighbor’s grand children appear to be normal and healthy. For the several years they have visited their grandmother they play outdoors together quite well. No problem there.
My neighbor on the other side has kids I rarely see. But again, they are no problem.
I think the problem kid is a result of parental failure of some kind. And I wish I knew how to solve that problem but I don’t. It has probably plagued mankind since the dawn of civilization and there’s been plenty of incentive to solve it and it’s not solved. It looks intractable.
Neither CO2 nor guns nor anything else is responsible. It’s a parental failure.
50
“…Plus, a warmer world is a wetter one. What evaporates up, must come down again — though no one is very good at predicting where. …”
Before assuming this assertion is true, you probably want to consult Antactic and Greenland ice core records. Doing makes things look more complex. You can simplify potential “climate change” to a two-by-two contingency table. On one axis are “warmer” and “cooler” and on the other “wetter” and “drier.” In college we argued about this in the pub many a warm afternoon to no conclusion. Logically, since any precipitation on land has to be converted to vapour first which takes energy, warmer weather could logically be expected to be wetter. So theoretically a “warmer” planet may be wetter.
However when you plot temperature and precipitation over time, the ice cores tell a very interesting tale. During the Pleistocene, precipitation correlates positively with temperature especially during the coldest periods. Dust correlates inversely. But, beginning about 11,000 BP, these relationships invert in the ice cores. Cooler periods see increased precipitation, and warmer periods are drier. That is, there is a profound difference in climate between the last glacial epoch and the current interstadial.
50
***first a reminder, China’s ETS is merely a SIMULATED market, despite ABC’s Big Ideas programs last nite stating it’s a functioning emissions trading market:
20 Apr: CarbonPulse: China’s State Council approves ETS allocation plan -media
China’s State Council has approved an allocation plan for the power sector’s trial emissions trading system, local media reported Thursday, a sign that the government is on track to launch the ***SIMULATED market this year as planned…
note EU’s heavy involvement:
25 Apr: ClimateChangeNews: China reshuffle brings ‘challenges’ for national carbon market: senior official
Many more staff need training on the emissions trading system as climate policy moves to a new, enlarged environment ministry, says director Li Gao.
By Li Jing
(Li Gao, director of the climate change department) made his first public appearance since the department officially came under the new Ministry of Ecology and Environment earlier this month, to address the launch of the second phase of cooperation on carbon emissions trading between EU and China…
He went on to assure the audience that a national carbon trading scheme, announced in December, will remain a critical policy tool to regulate emissions of greenhouse gases, although he said the reshuffle will “undoubtedly bring new tasks and challenges”…
***Between 2014 and 2017, EU envoys have worked with with all 32 Chinese provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, involving 2,000 officials and industry managers to develop individual and institutional capacity for carbon trading…
In the next three years, the bloc has promised another €10 million ($12m) to support the development of China’s national carbon market.
Li told Climate Home News his department will continue to oversee international climate negotiations, quashing rumors that the responsibility would be assimilated into other departments under the environment ministry.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/04/25/china-reshuffle-brings-challenges-national-carbon-market-says-top-official/
what a potential racket this is.
40
Its open to corrupt practice, similar to the Australian Tax Office and big four banks.
30
Great catch, Jo. This is a really useful paper to take note of and regurgitate at appropriate times. Thank you.
20
SHOCK, HORROR, THERE WAS A SMALL RISE IN ECONOMIC GROWTH!
following is the future these unelected CAGW zealots have in mind:
25 Apr: Nature News Feature: Can the world kick its fossil-fuel addiction fast enough?
Clean energy is growing quickly. But time is running out to rein in carbon emissions.
by Jeff Tollefson
Some experts see the boom in renewable energy and the shift away from coal in many countries as evidence that the world is beginning to turn a corner on global warming. Others see simply a continuing reliance on ***low-cost fossil fuels, slow governmental action and a rising risk of planetary meltdown…
Renewable energy is indeed undergoing a revolution, as prices for things such as solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries continue to plummet. And yet it is also true that the world remains dependent on fossil fuels — so much so that even small economic shifts can quickly overwhelm the gains made with clean energy…
So it was in 2017, when, after staying relatively flat from 2014 to 2016, carbon emissions grew by about 1.5% (see ‘A brief lull’). All it took to create that spike was ***a small rise in economic growth across the developing world, according to a final estimate released in March by the Global Carbon Project, an international research consortium that monitors carbon emissions and climate trends…
The bottom line is hardly encouraging: by and large, governments are falling well short of their commitments, both collectively and individually. Many countries are likely to miss the emissions targets that they made in 2015, and the world is on track for more than 3 °C of warming by the end of the century (see ‘Plotting the future’)…
Governments are going to have to face the fact that they need to do more if they are serious about meeting the Paris climate agreement’s goals, says Glen Peters, a climate-policy researcher at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo and co-author of the Global Carbon Project’s March report. “A lot of hard truths will have to come out in 2018,” he says…
Big economic and political hurdles stand in the way of shutting off the fossil-fuel spigot and the ***cheap energy it provides…
But the 2014–16 emissions plateau was shaped by more than just a clean-energy push. One of the biggest factors in keeping levels in check was an economic slowdown in China, which lowered demand for everything from energy to concrete and steel…
The upshot, says David Victor, a climate-policy specialist at the University of California, San Diego, is that two of the biggest factors in reducing emissions from electricity come from the fossil-fuel sector itself: ***increasing coal-plant efficiency in China and the ***expansion of shale gas in the United States. Because so much energy comes from coal, slight fluctuations from year to year can wipe out massive gains in renewables (see ‘The scale of things’)…
India’s emissions rose faster than expected, owing to stronger economic growth…
Then there is the rest of the world, whose emissions rose by 2% in 2017, according to the Global Carbon Project’s analysis. That includes developing countries, where tapping fossil fuels remains a ***relatively cheap and easy way of making economic progress…
Some analysts think that solar energy, in particular, is poised to hit a tipping point that could change the face of the energy market. Watt for watt, solar energy already costs as little as coal in some places. And intriguingly, the London-based energy consultancy Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has calculated that solar could become so cheap that, by 2030, it would be more cost-effective in many regions to build a solar plant than to continue supplying fuel to an existing coal plant (see ‘Solar tipping point’)…
The United Kingdom and France have both announced plans to ban the sale of petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles by 2040. And more than two dozen countries have committed to phasing out coal by as early as 2030.
***These types of mandate are a sign that energy politics might be shifting towards more brute-force methods, says Michael Mehling, an energy and environmental-policy researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge…
Old-school government mandates might be the last resort, Mehling says. “If the decisions are made at a sufficiently high level,” he says, “they can change the landscape pretty much overnight”…
Ultimately, the only thing that matters to the climate is the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted — and so the question is when humanity will begin to close the spigot and shut down fossil-fuel infrastructure. When that happens, (Rahul Tongia) says, “you can start to feel a little bit better”.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04931-6
25 Apr: Nature Editorial: Climate talks are not enough
As officials meet in Bonn to swap stories on progress towards the Paris goals, only emissions cuts will guarantee a happy ending
Countries will initiate the first formal review of progress under the 2015 Paris climate pact at the United Nations climate talks in Bonn, Germany, next week. According to the UN, the ‘Talanoa Dialogue’ aims to “share stories, build empathy and to make wise decisions for the collective good. The process of Talanoa involves the sharing of ideas, skills and experience through storytelling.”…
US President Donald Trump is promoting a retrograde energy agenda, and has vowed to pull the United States out of the Paris agreement. (Still, despite their rhetoric and ambitions, Trump and his allies have yet to halt coal’s probably inevitable decline in the face of cheap natural gas and renewables.)…
Another way to measure progress is to look at where the money is going. Given the scale of the challenge ahead, the goal of policymakers must be to align investments across the climate landscape, from energy efficiency and carbon-free energy sources to green buildings, cities and other infrastructure…READ ON
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04925-4
30
btw note all the times Tollefson admits fossil fuels are cheaper, marked ***
20
25 Apr: EnvironmentalScience&Technology: Infrastructure Shapes Differences in the Carbon Intensities of Chinese Cities
(multiple authors – Tsinghua University Beijing, UCLA Irvine, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement France)
Abstract:
The carbon intensity of economic activity, or CO2 emissions per unit GDP, is a key indicator of the climate impacts of a given activity, business, or region. Although it is well-known that the carbon intensity of countries varies widely according to their level of economic development and dominant industries, few studies have assessed disparities in carbon intensity at the level of cities due to limited availability of data. Here, we present a detailed new inventory of emissions for 337 Chinese cities (every city in mainland China including 333 prefecture-level divisions and 4 province-level cities, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing) in 2013, which we use to evaluate differences of carbon intensity between cities and the causes of those differences.
We find that cities’ average carbon intensity is 0.84 kg of CO2 per dollar of gross domestic product (kgCO2 per $GDP), but individual cities span a large range: from 0.09 to 7.86 kgCO2 per $GDP (coefficient of variation of 25%). Further analysis of economic and technological drivers of variations in cities’ carbon intensity reveals that the differences are largely due to disparities in cities’ economic structure that can in turn be traced to past investment-led growth.
These patterns suggest that “carbon lock-in” via socio-economic and infrastructural inertia may slow China’s efforts to reduce emissions from activities in urban areas. Policy instruments targeted to accelerate the transition of urban economies from investment-led to consumption-led growth may thus be crucial to China meeting both its economic and climate targets…LINKS
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.est.7b05654?journalCode=esthag
20
Who paid for this study, Why would anyone do this study? Why would any journal publish this study? Why would anyone read this study?
51
On further reading, maybe my comment above was a bit hasty.
60
Maybe not.
I haven’t read the study. Why would I read it. I read Jo’s Summary. That was enough.
10
Yes Peter I have to agree.
20
TedM,
I agree with your statement before you became “a bit hasty”.
To propose wars have simple cause is ludicrous.
Being ludicrous, it must have great appeal to the warmists.
10
East Africa, the theatre for horrible wars????
Except those started and ongoing by the mozzies.
40
Mozzies?
They’d be the ones that should have been killed by DDT except some organisation or other prevented its use?
30
How arrogant of the affluent West to say WE can afford expensive insecticides, “you guys” can solve your own problems.
It hasn’t worked too well for us either. I sometimes think I would be better off with spray starch to glue the fly’s wings together than to use “approved” insecticides.
30
Before DDT and its fraternity we used kerosene mist.
10
Missiles are more effective against the mozzies to which I refer.
I wouldn’t waste DDT on them.
10
The was a sad case in Syria recently. And it wasn’t DT.
10
Somalia [mozzies] has increased it’s population seven fold since 1950. There was a big spike in rate of increase in the late seventies. Is that when Geldof thought it a good idea to play God?
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/somalia-population/
10
Ah! Sir Bob.
A world champion waster.
10
For an instant there I read “waster” with an “nk” in the middle. I’ll give myself an uppercut.
20
I think you got the spelling right, not the polite version from toorightmate.
20
They just don’t come any more polite than me.
10
Except for that amazingly world famous wombatologist Prof Timmy Flannery.
He has developed this amazing world leading methodology that doesn’t predict where rain will fall but, rather, where it won’t.
He has on numerous occasions predicted that even if it does rain, it will not rain where Australia’s dams and water storages are located.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/column–dam-flannery-should-resign/news-story/d059496de6e3a9f6309e3760459b3ed1
60
At 15 seconds in, hear it from his own foolish mouth:
https://youtu.be/Dr_5Iv9_OGY
40
What intrigues me about atmospheric water is that even at 100% relative humidity there are no clouds. If the air cools excess dissolved H2O simply settles out as dew, still no cloud or fog. London “pea-soup” smog needed emissions from coal to form. Strict air-quality controls solved that particular problem
What is needed to form clouds is particulate matter and UV or Gamma rays from the sun.
So cloud cover and ergo reflection of heat is dependant on particles and sun. CO2, you are free to go.
Guys, Please remember I’m a tradesman. This explanation is as rough as guts and I know it. 🙂
30
True Hanrahan.
However the 100% humidity can be quite local, close to the ground due to a phenomenon known as a temperature inversion.
As I understand it the ground can cool by radiation on a clear calm night. The ground drags down the air temperature (near the ground) and the air gets to saturation and dew forms.
Wind tends to provoke mixing in the lower atmosphere which inhibits dew (and Fog).
So much about our environment to learn about still!
30
I think the rot of Australia started before Whitlam (1972-75) but it massively accelerated under his regime when bludgers (for non-Australians, freeloaders) discovered they could vote themselves “free stuff” from the public coffers.
71
Australian Free Speech Conference
http://www.alsfc.com.au/
Guess who is speaking. Non other than our own Joanne Nova!
I suppose that she will tell us about it soon but the conference could be a sell out.
Conference is in Sydney 25-27 May.
I am thinking of attending. I would like to meet other JoNovarians there.
30
Unable to attend. It should be very interesting.
31
Falls into the category of “men and women are different”.
As Victor David Hanson pointed out in his various works on the history of war, war is solely a human invention and been going on (and off) for millenniums.
Headline could have been “In surprising new study, humans just being humans again”.
10
VDH is a scholar of ancient wars but I enjoy his discussions on the two world wars, my interest, having been born in a garrison town at the time of Coral Sea battle and with every able bodied man in the family [Father and uncles in the mud of Flanders] having worn uniform.
Recommended.
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26 Apr: CarbonPulse: EU govts rake in the cash as monthly carbon sales top €1 billion
Monthly revenues from EU carbon allowance auctions have for the first time topped the €1 billion mark, providing a major funding injection for governments as EUA prices hold near seven-year highs.
26 Apr: EurActiv: Carbon prices seen hitting €55 in 2030, hastening ‘major’ coal-to-gas switch
By Frédéric Simon
EU carbon prices are set to double by 2021 and could quadruple to €55 a tonne by 2030 if the European Union aligns its emissions targets with the Paris Agreement on climate change, according to a new report published on Thursday (26 April).
The recent reform of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme has already lifted carbon prices from a low of €4.38 per tonne in May 2017 to €13.82 per tonne in April 2018, says the new report by Carbon Tracker, a think tank.
Prices are now on course to hit €25-€30 per tonne by 2020-21 as reforms squeeze out surplus supply, the ‘Carbon Clampdown: Closing the gap to a Paris compliant EU-ETS’ (LINK) report found.
But bringing the EU ETS into line with the 2 degrees Celsius warming target of the Paris Agreement would require carbon prices to average €45-€55/tonne for a sustained period, the report found. That would make even the most efficient coal and lignite power plants unprofitable.
“This is likely to see a major switch from coal to gas in Italy, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands,” the report concluded, noting that the UK has already largely achieved this switch due to domestic policies.
“The point is, gas is 50% less carbon-intensive than coal when combusted, so switching between coal and gas in the power sector is the easiest way of reducing emissions at scale in the EU-ETS in the short-to medium term,” said Mark Lewis, who recently joined Carbon Tracker from Barclays where he was head of European utilities. Lewis was previously head of carbon research at Deutsche Bank between 2007-13…
“So, longer term (say by 2040), we think the EU power sector will have to be completely decarbonised, with renewables and storage the end-game.”
“So the initial priority has to be to remove coal from the mix by or very shortly after 2030, and then as renewables and storage are ramped up, to remove gas as well,” he said…
Carbon pricing, whether via cap-and-trade schemes or taxes, is not sufficient on its own to achieve the objective of the Paris Agreement, Lewis cautions. Other policies, technologies, and investor action are also needed, he argues…
High carbon prices are also likely to accelerate the development of large-scale energy storage, smart grids and demand-side response, where energy users shift consumption away from peak periods, the report said.
LINK Carbon Tracker: Report and press release (26 April 2018)
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/carbon-prices-seen-hitting-e55-in-2030-hasting-major-coal-to-gas-switch/
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lol.
25 Apr: CarbonPulse: Higher EU carbon prices helping slow global warming pace, says fund manager
Higher EU ETS prices have helped slow the expected pace of global warming, according to London-based fund managers Schroders on Wednesday.
25 Apr: ClimateChangeNews: Megan Darby: Seven member states push for EU to raise climate targets
Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Portugal and Luxembourg are calling for a faster transition to a clean economy. While they did not determine exactly what the target should be, they agreed it should line up with the Paris Agreement.
French junior environment minister Brune Poirson said in a press release: “European Union must raise its level of ambition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. France is taking its part by defining and implementing new policies for a fair and ecological transition, and is currently revising its national long-term strategy to aim at carbon neutrality at horizon 2050.”
The call comes days before negotiators meet for interim UN climate talks in Bonn, to thrash out the rulebook for the Paris Agreement and take stock of collective action…
“Science tells us we only have a few years to respond forcefully in order to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change,” said (Swedish) climate minister Eva Svedling. “Sweden also believes the EU should set a target for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, or even earlier if science shows that it is needed.”…
The UK has also indicated plans to legislate a carbon neutral target, but is on course to leave the EU and did not take part in the meeting…
Any change to the EU target depends on the cooperation of the remaining 20 member states, including coal-dependent Poland…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/04/25/seven-member-states-push-eu-raise-climate-targets/
***all that’s missing is the money:
26 Apr: ClimateChangeNews: We need bold action before 2020 to hold global warming below 1.5C
If rich countries fail to live up to their promises over the next two years, they condemn small islands to catastrophic warming impacts, says Maldives minister
By Thoriq Ibrahim
(Thoriq Ibrahim is the energy and environment minister of the Maldives and chair of the Alliance of Small Island States)
Time and again they also agreed to provide financial support for developing countries to build their own renewable energy systems…
Fortunately, solutions to the climate crisis – wind, solar, energy efficiency, and many others – are more cost-effective than ever. And the financial institutions needed to facilitate climate finance distribution to developing countries, like the Green Climate Fund (GCF), have been in place for years – ***all that is missing now is the level of financing money promised…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/04/26/paris-agreement-starts-2020-will-late/
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27 Apr: Stuff New Zealand: Productivity Commission prescribes more trees, fewer cows to meeting carbon emissions targets
by JULIE ILES AND GED CANN
The Productivity Commission’s latest draft report on transitioning to a low-emissions economy includes 50 recommendations on how best to address New Zealand’s slow progress.
While most developed countries have lowered their emissions, New Zealand has been increasing its output since the mid-2000s and is on track to increase into the next decade. New Zealand is still on track to meet its 2020 commitment under the Paris Agreement, to reduce emissions to 5 per cent below 1990 levels, but only because of the country’s surplus credits from the Kyoto Protocol…READ ON
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103384429/productivity-commission-prescribes-more-trees-fewer-cows-to-meeting-carbon-emissions-targets
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so, as the Brits freeze…CAGW is bothering them more than ever:
26 Apr: Business Green: Michael Holder: Public support for renewables hits record 85 per cent high
Latest government attitudes survey shows overwhelming support for clean energy – particularly solar and offshore wind – alongside rising concern over climate change Support for renewable energy among UK residents has climbed yet again to hit 85 per cent, its highest level since the government first began recording attitudes towards energy and climate change issues five years ago.
According to the latest survey results released today there has been a clear uptick in support for renewables from the previous quarterly survey (LINK), which demonstrated overall support of 79 per cent…
The Public Attitudes Tracker (PAT) (LINK) questioned 2,000 people over two weeks between the end of March and beginning of April this year…
Support for solar and offshore wind also reached record highs in today’s update, hitting 87 per cent and 83 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, support for other renewables technologies also remained high: 81 per cent voiced support for wave and tidal energy, 76 per cent backed onshore wind, and 69 per cent were in favour of biomass…
Three-quarters of respondents agreed that renewables industries and associated developments provide economic benefits to the UK, compared to 70 per cent in May last year…
And in a potentially positive development for onshore wind developers, 66 per cent of the public said they would be happy to have a large scale renewable development in their area, an uptick from 58 per cent in May 2017.
Analysis by climate campaign group 10:10 suggests public opposition to onshore wind is strongly correlated with climate scepticism, with hostility to the technology concentrated among the over 65s…
Dr Jonathan Marshall, head of analysis at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said it was “notable” that public support for onshore wind was so high just as the government is signalling it is open to finding a route to market for new projects…
Elsewhere, today’s results also demonstrate growing concern over climate change over the past year, with 74 per cent stating that they were “very” or “fairly concerned”, up from 71 per cent in May 2017…
Concern over climate change was generally slightly higher among households on the highest income levels, reaching 86 per cent for the richest households compared to 62 per cent amongst those in the in lowest social grade bracket, according to the data…
Respondents were also more likely to see climate change being the result of human activity rather than natural process. Just under half believe it is caused mainly by human activity, compared to only one in 10 who believe it is mainly down to natural processes. Four in 10 think it is caused by a mixture of human activity and natural causes…
https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3031130/public-support-for-renewables-hits-record-85-per-cent-high
26 Apr: Business Green: James Murray: Carbon Tracker: Businesses could face continued EU carbon price surge
From January 2019 a new Market Stability Reserve will come into force and will cancel 24 per cent of the surplus each year up to 2023 and 12 per cent thereafter. Carbon Tracker projects that the move could see carbon prices hit €20 in 2019 and €25-30 in 2020-21 as the supply squeeze starts to bite.
At the same time the UK has demonstrated how a unilateral carbon floor price can help push coal off the grid far faster than many industry analysts expected, while having a limited impact on energy prices..
Wendel Trio, director of campaign group Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe, said there was now growing momentum behind calls for a significant strengthening of the EU’s climate policy framework.
“More and more European countries agree that the EU needs to do more to tackle the climate crisis and fully implement the Paris Agreement,” he said. “The critical conversation on how to increase the EU’s climate commitments is finally moving forward. We urge all other European countries to join this coalition, make the Paris Agreement a reality and align EU policies with the ambition to limit temperature rise to 1.5C. The draft long term climate strategy to be published within a year is the ideal opportunity to go well beyond the current commitments.”
Calls for higher carbon prices will inevitably face a significant push back from some carbon intensive industries and economies, but all investors and businesses need to be aware that the recent surge in EU carbon prices could have a very long way to run yet. And those businesses that ignore the prospect of higher carbon prices could quickly find themselves lumbered with stranded and unprofitable assets
https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news-analysis/3031097/carbon-tracker-businesses-could-face-continued-eu-carbon-price-surge
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26 Apr: CarbonBrief: Leo Hickman: The Carbon Brief Interview: Prof Stephen Belcher
Prof Stephen Belcher was appointed the chief scientist at the Met Office in December 2016. In 2012, he joined the Met Office as director of the Met Office Hadley Centre. Previously, he was the head of the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at the University of Reading. He has published more than 100 papers on the fluid dynamics of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence.
SUMMARY:
•Belcher on how the UK media covers climate change: “I think that the media are certainly covering weather events in a very complete way…On the climate side, I think my experience has been that, again, it’s an extreme weather event that provokes interest in climate and climate change.”
•On the UK’s new climate projections, UKCP18, due out later this year: “We think that the projections of the changes to…intense rainfalls with thunderstorms, particularly in the summer, will be different and interesting and more faithful.”…
•On when he first heard about climate change: “It was certainly being talked about when I was an undergraduate in the mid-1980s.”
•On explaining climate change to children: “Most children I meet know about climate change and I think it’s taught at quite a junior level at school now. And, clearly, there are the iconic impacts like the sea-level rise, the Amazon rainforest and Arctic sea-ice as obvious examples where we’ve measured change and we can see it happening in front of us.”
•On what the Paris Agreement means for climate science: “Since Paris, now there’s much more focus, I think, on precision…There’s requirement for climate science to project at a degree of accuracy that I don’t think we had before…The precision required [for carbon budgets] is at a whole different level of magnitude now.”
•On the climate-science questions he would like to see answered: “Around the carbon budgets, a question that I would like to see more clarity on is whether land-based vegetation will continue to absorb carbon dioxide at the rate it currently is, or whether in a future climate, that drawdown of carbon by plants on land will change…I think the second would be understanding better the role of the oceans in the climate system.”
***•On the uncertainty over climate sensitivity: “I take a rather pragmatic approach. It’s an uncertainty at the moment we have to live with, so within that uncertainty what can we say? And let’s not forget the climate sensitivity is a global measure. What we really care about is regional expression of climate change.”
•On the IPCC’s sixth assessment report: “It looks like that will have more of a focus on risk and it looks like it is responding to Paris agenda. So that’s a very positive step.”
•On potential topics for future IPCC special reports: “Carbon budgets…are clearly absolutely pivotal. So something that could bring, perhaps, that work together with something that could cut across the three chapters [IPCC working groups]…I think the cities…is an interesting one, too, actually.”
•On the IPCC special report on 1.5C due out in October: “I hope it will be used in a productive way that recognises that 1.5C is an extremely challenging target, but it’s not beyond reach and there are a range of pathways to it.”
•On negative emissions: “Negative emissions is untested. So it would clearly require a huge engineering effort and, indeed, social science effort to really put them into place.”
•On scientists researching geoengineering: “The use of geoengineering…is an area where climate science is beginning to get into and I think that’s probably a good thing. And the role of climate science is to engage in that kind of debate.”
•On why he chooses not to answer energy policy-related questions: “I think if we did start speculating about policy we would be straying way beyond our area of expertise and that wouldn’t be helpful.”
•On the “red team/blue team” proposal to interrogate climate science, as supported by Scott Pruitt in the US: “Peer review…seems to me to be a highly appropriate way of challenging science. It avoids personality overwhelming scientific line-of-reasoning and argument.”
•On why the Met Office publishes probabilistic seasonal forecasts: “We have some skill for winter temperatures now in the UK and this is a development we made just a few years ago. So planners for the transport sector in the UK [can use the forecasts], if there’s a risk of cold weather.” READ ON FOR THE INTERVIEW
https://www.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-interview-prof-stephen-belcher
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This has always been a patently absurd line of thought.
Civil wars and climate refugees (long term) are not found in western democracies. Is it because extreme weather respects national boundaries or is it because nations have boundaries?
Can they trigger nasty crap when nations are poor and disorganized? Of course. Only a moron would think otherwise and only ideologues would deliberately propagate falsehoods to others.
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read all:
26 Apr: NorthQldRegister: Qld Government money grab drives power prices
THE Queensland Government is taking $47 in every $100 paid in network charges on a household or business electricity bills.
Farm group CANEGROWERS says the revelation is contained in a report (LINK) commissioned to gain a clear picture of the drivers behind rising electricity prices and where the money ended up.
CANEGROWERS senior vice-chairman Allan Dingle said the report made shocking reading.
“Electricity is a cash cow for government,” Mr Dingle said.
“This report exposes how successive Queensland governments have enabled the electricity networks to exploit consumers in the pursuit of excessive profits.
“It’s very rich for the state government to be posturing over the proposed National Energy Guarantee when a large portion of the problem lies within its control.”
Compiled by Hugh Grant, The Winners and Losers of the Monopoly Game (LINK) examines the profitability of the electricity networks.
“Across Queensland electricity prices doubled from 2007-08 to 2013-14 and for farmers like me who use irrigation to grow food or fibre, prices are now 130pc higher,” Mr Dingle said.
“For every $1000 irrigators pay in network charges watering their crops, the government gets $470. This is true for everyone using electricity.
“Increased network charges accounted for 95 per cent of the 2007-08 to 2013-14 electricity price hike while generation and retail costs have remained stable.
“Governments have been getting away with this for too long – but their time is up.
“The community is becoming increasingly aware of the real reasons for excessive electricity prices.
“CANEGROWERS commissioned this report to get some facts and numbers out in the open to lay bare what everyone knows. We are being ripped off.”…
“This cash cow mentality is threatening the long-term viability of industries like irrigated agriculture, with flow on impacts in regional Queensland,” Mr Dingle said.
“If that $470 out of every $1000 stayed in farmers’ pockets instead of going to the government, it would be spent in their local areas supporting other businesses and jobs.
“A ‘business as usual’ approach to power prices from government is not an option.”…
CANEGROWERS is part of the Queensland Industry Energy Alliance along with the Queensland Farmers’ Federation, Chamber of Commerce and Industry Queensland and the Refrigerated Warehouse & Transport Association.
The Alliance is calling for electricity prices to have a ceiling of no more than 16c/kWh, comprising 8c/kWh for the network and 8c/kWh for the electricity. The report demonstrates that this is a sustainable electricity price.
The story Qld Government’s massive electricity price grab first appeared on Queensland Country Life.
https://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/story/5364902/qld-governments-massive-electricity-price-grab/?cs=4735
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one big happy CAGW political family:
26 Apr: news.com.au: Matt Smith: Disease threat forces SA Health to prioritise adapting to climate change
HEALTH threats from extreme weather events and diseases spread by mosquitoes have prompted SA Health to prioritise adapting to climate change in a new blueprint…
Chief medical officer Paddy Phillips has told The Advertiser the frequency and severity of heatwaves and bushfires, and the increased risk of the spread of disease by insects and bugs, meant climate change threatened the wellbeing of South Australians.
His warning comes as SA Health released its draft State Public Health Plan for the period from 2019-2024.
Professor Phillips said multiple government agencies needed to consider the impact of climate change when developing policies and strategies to manage and prevent public health risks…
“Variations in our climate have increased the frequency and severity of weather events such as floods, droughts, bushfires, storms (and) periods of extreme heat, as well as the spread of vector-borne diseases,” Prof Phillips said.
“These events threaten the wellbeing of our communities, especially in vulnerable populations.”…
The draft report, that has been published for public consultation, lists four priorities…ETC
Health and Wellbeing Minister Stephen Wade said he would review the plan, which was drawn up on the watch of the former Labor state government, to determine if any additional issues needed to be addressed.
Mr Wade welcomed the inclusion of climate change as a priority.
“It is prudent for public health plans to consider the impact of climate change,” he said.
SA Greens leader Mark Parnell said a suite of measures, including better town planning and the design of individual homes to be more resilient to changing climatic conditions, was needed.
That would help South Australia adapt to the challenge of climate change.
“We know that with a hotter climate comes more health problems including increased hospitalisations and premature deaths from increasing heatwaves,” he said.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/disease-threat-forces-sa-health-to-prioritise-adapting-to-climate-change/news-story/fc734296a4580dda2c60320f8e8ac463
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26 Apr: EurekaAlert: New study addresses the role of health in climate lawsuits
George Washington University
Researchers at the George Washington University (GW) are at the forefront of analyzing how climate lawsuits shape the nation’s response to climate change. A new analysis investigates the role of health concerns in climate litigation since 1990 and finds that although health is cited in a minority of cases, it may have critical potential for protecting communities from the effects of climate change and coal fired power plants.
“Many experts believe that climate change is the biggest threat to public health in the 21st century, and the courts have been and will continue to be a central avenue for the development of climate-related policy in the United States,” says lead author Sabrina McCormick, PhD, an Associate Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health at Milken Institute School of Public Health (Milken Institute SPH) at the George Washington University.
McCormick and her colleagues in the Milken Institute School of Public Health’s Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, George Washington University Law School, and the university’s Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration looked at 873 judicial decisions related to climate change and coal-fired power plants between 1990 and 2016. They found that a minority of cases (16 percent) associated with those decisions referenced health issues. Health was most likely to be invoked in cases related to air pollution. Past research has linked air pollution to a wide range of health problems, including asthma, McCormick notes.
The GW researchers pointed to lawsuit types that might be supported with evidence regarding health, such as renewable energy and energy efficiency included health issues…
“The Role of Health in Climate Litigation” will appear online April 26 in The American Journal of Public Health.
https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-04/gwu-nsa042418.php
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26 Apr: AFR: Climate litigation could become like tobacco actions: Martijn Wilder
by Ben Potter
More companies are seeking advice about how to combat climate change litigation should the kinds of heavyweight suits launched in New York and elsewhere come to Australia.
Martijn Wilder, Baker & McKenzie partner in charge of global environmental markets and climate change, said the firm hadn’t done much climate litigation in the past but the pace of inquiries from companies seeking reassurance about any potential liability had quickened.
“For the first time we are starting to be asked by clients who think they have got a threat of this litigation what the likelihood and the probability of it is,” said Mr Wilder, The Australian Financial Review’s Best Climate Lawyer for 2018 (LINK).
He said the risk applied equally to companies, especially those that have been in denial about climate change risk to their business, and investors, some of which had been pressuring companies to lift their game on carbon risk disclosure but still had a long way to go themselves
***Importantly, none of these groups could point to federal government dysfunction on climate policy to defend their own inaction, he said, because the wild rhetoric of government dissidents like Craig Kelly does not reflect mainstream government policy for the nation to meet its Paris commitments for a 26-28 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030…
PHOTO CAPTION: Government dissidents don’t represent the government’s position on climate change, Martijn Wilder says. Coalition MPs linked to the Monash Forum, Craig Kelly, Eric Abetz, Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and Kevin Andrews.
http://www.afr.com/news/climate-litigation-could-become-like-tobacco-actions-martijn-wilder-20180405-h0yctd
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pat:
The logical defence would be to demand proof that CO2 controls the world’s temperature, then countersue for vexatious litigation.
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UNFCCC: Side Events & Exhibits | UN Climate Change Conference (Bonn, Germany 30 April to 10 May, 2018)
https://seors.unfccc.int/seors/reports/events_list.html?session_id=SB48
all over the MSM:
25 Apr: WaPo: The military paid for a study on sea level rise. The results were scary.
by Chris Mooney and Brady Dennis
This story has been updated.
More than a thousand low-lying tropical islands risk becoming “uninhabitable” by the middle of the century — or possibly sooner — because of rising sea levels, upending the populations of some island nations and endangering key U.S. military assets, according to new research (LINK) published Wednesday…
While seas are rising by 3.2 millimeters per year at the moment and expected to rise even faster in years ahead, Roi-Namur has a good chance of avoiding total inundation this century.
But the new research — conducted by researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several other institutions in the United States, Monaco and the Netherlands — suggests that saltwater contamination of the island’s aquifers would probably occur at 40 centimeters (about 15 inches) of sea-level rise. A rise of five to six centimeters globally has already occurred since 2000, and the sea-level rise is even faster at the Kwajalein atoll…
“Historically, there would be an overwash event due to a cyclone or typhoon every 20 or 30 years,” said Curt Storlazzi, a USGS researcher who led the study…
The “tipping point” in the study varies depending upon the rate of climate change — and above all the stability of Antarctica. In the worst case, the paper says, it could come “before 2030.” However, a prominent expert in sea-level rise who was not involved in the study, Bob Kopp of Rutgers University, questioned that especially dire finding.
“They’re asking the right questions, they’re doing the right sorts of analysis, but I’m a little skeptical of some of their early-century dates for some things,” Kopp said in an interview with The Washington Post…
The research was commissioned by the Pentagon’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program and published in a more lengthy form earlier this year, in a report that partly focused on helping the military identify sites where its assets could be vulnerable…ETC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/04/25/climate-change-could-make-thousands-of-tropical-islands-uninhabitable-in-coming-decades-new-study-says/
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OT but it seems Fraudenberg has no trouble burning waste to generate electricity but burn coal ?
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Comment in moderation so let’s try .
It seems Frordenberg has no trouble calling for generating electricity from waste but coal ?
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Climate Change might not cause a war, but make no mistake: it is a war being waged on mankind, especially the western industrial nations by the misanthropic Greens and the United Nations.
Climate Change:
… about as real as a Snark, and it’s a Boojum.
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