Right now a very rare southern SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) is taking place, possibly peaking today or this weekend over Antarctica. In the Northern Hemisphere SSW’s happen more often and in the month afterwards, wild polar blasts like the “Beast from the East” can peel off. So somewhere way up at 10hPa or 30 – 50 km, there is an area that’s warmed from -60C to close to zero. The warming up high throws a spanner in the normal jet streams and weeks later, down at the surface, blobs of cold air from the poles may end up wandering far from “home”.
We (as in Africa, Australia, Argentina, or New Zealand) may get bumper snow and severe frosts, or we may not. Some researchers are getting excited and are using the word “historic”.
…
These are rare over the Southern Hemisphere — due to Antarctica being shaped like a circular cheesecake right over the pole and surrounded by water. The geography is cleaner and simpler than at the north pole, and that generates a strong circumpolar jetstream. The strong pattern normally stops these sudden warmings up high which occur with wandering jetstreams.
In the Southern Hemisphere there have only been two officially recorded SSW’s in the last 50 years, one in 2002 and a more minor one in 2010. Though I’d venture to guess that we haven’t got much data on temperatures 30km above Antarctica in 1922 (or whenever). In the northern Hemisphere, some are already discussing the odds of another one for this winter, #PolarVortex.
Dr Amy Butler at CIRES/NOAA ESRL is excited.
“… this plot gives a sense of how large planetary-scale atmospheric wave propagation is in the mid-stratosphere (in the SH, the biggest values are more negative). These waves can break (think waves breaking on a beach) and rapidly slow the normal circulation there.”
While those with crystal balls and CMIP5 models may blame any freak weather on CO2, none of the models can predict this. Indeed, the modelers are still trying to define SSW’s Is it a wind reversal, or a temperature gradient change? (Junsu Kim 2017). The best meteorologists can only predict a Sudden Stratospheric Warming a whole week in advance.
Time to arm up on ways to explain to the superstitious that any cold snaps that may come are not another spooky sign of A CO2 Effect.
LINKS
The Stratobserve site is good for data geeks — set up by a PhD student. Nice!
See the NIWA report of cold weather that might be headed for New Zealand. @niwaweather
News.com: Rare Antarctic phenomenon could plunge Australian temperatures to midwinter lows
h/t Greg in NZ, Andrew V.
So is this climate change? I mean the climate is changing right. So there are a whole bunch of things, like warm winds blowing up to Europe from Africa that make things very hot, and cold winds from Antarctica which makes things cold. Who would have ever thought. I mean we have had climate change since the beginning of time. This could also explain why the enviro nuts call it climate change now instead of global warming. First it is warm then it is cold. Sheesh.
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You sure it’s not just another, infrequent, weather event? The cold weather around the south pole has been there for a long time, and we’ve had events which we used to call “cold snaps” at odd times. Seems to me we might have found an explanation for something previously not understood at all??
Cheers
Dave B
140
Thee are 3 doors with something about the weather behind each one.
Door 1. I suspect various people will call it various things. That’s a safe bet because that’s the way it’s gone in the past.
Door 2. It’s interesting to wonder if there’s something we might be doing that influences the weather. And various groups and individuals will probably say this, that or the other thing is going on. That’s a safe bet too because that’s the way it’s gone in the past.
Door 3. But in the end all that’s happening is that the weather does as it pleases and pays no attention to us. That’s a safe bet too because that’s the way it’s gone in the past.
It seems we can take our pick because there’ll be someone out there who will agree with you no matter what door you choose…kinda bass ackward if you ask me. But I’ll stick with door 3 as I always do. That way the total lack of evidence supporting anything else will be on my side.
150
In their so called models of (fake CO2 warming hypothesis) they cant warm above the tropopause as the so called GHG effect doesnt work above the tropopause by their definition in all the texts. Therefore THEY lose!
50
I sure would like to see us win. Hence door 3, where their total lack of evidence is on my side. The whole thing is easily explained but nevertheless it will be our dastardly refusal to quit emitting “carbon” that will be blamed.
40
Due to climate change the shape of Antarctica has changed as ice has melted differently to the past.
This SSW is all our fault and more will follow as we superheat the planet. Repent immediately.
285
An interesting excursion into the real world of life on the Planet, thanks Jo.
Images come to mind of hot air rising but it has nowhere to go.
But maybe it’ll go sideways and when it cools, it might drop again.
The next image is of a roulette wheel.
And locally : it finally started to rain here yesterday, hope it gets up the valley.
KK
170
It’s raining to the east of me, about 100kms away, but I don’t expect it reach here. Rain shadow effect is rather strong.
Cheers
Dave.
100
We got six millimetres on the Central Tablelands, its a weak East Coast Low set to intensify before reaching NZ.
80
We’re getting light rain here at Greta since mid-morning today — that’s Greta the village, not Saint Greta. Nothing to get excited about for the Valley KK. Couple of mm. The radar plot looks promising, but short-lived. If we had 4 straight weeks like this it might achieve something. We need a few degenerated cyclones from the Pacific and the Indian to sweep the country to break the drought.
I noticed this graphic of southern ocean temps at Tony Heller’s.
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/08/southern-oceans-go-cold/
With all that cold water surrounding Oz it is no wonder we are in drought.
50
Overheard at the BoM…
“Dahhhlings, I’m so over blue this winter. Can’t we work some extra red and purple into our mid-year maps?”
“What about the stratosphere? Heat has to go somewhere.”
“A blushing magenta blob for the strat? Love it, dahhhlings!”
“And all the snow?”
“Flood threat, dahhlings! Find a warm, spring colour for that. No blue.”
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Maybe their computers have gone out on stress leave…..?
50
Not to worry dahhlings, they’re not real doctors, the kind that make you better.
20
Adiabatic heating,
or compression.
Finally, something interesting may happen that doesn’t involve Trump-Russia or Brixit.
I’ll get the popcorn ready.
170
I blame St Greta of Thunberg. All of her hyperventilating and that of her followers has caused a massive CO2 rise and that’s now affecting the Antarctic.
271
I see that James Dellingpole has copped a thrashing on his piece on Saint Greta. The fact that a person is a particular gender, race, ethnicity, religion or culture, does not preclude them from being an idiot, a dickhead or an arsehole.
Go James, a master wordsmith of the first water.
240
Earl, your thoughts are far from universally held. A significant percentage of Americans [30%?] believe it is racist to criticise any non-white’s POLICIES.
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All her followers don’t have to increase CO2 by hyperventilating. They increase CO2 just by flying around following Nordic Thanos.
“Oh! But her parents and friends offset their emissions! So it is all okay!”
Yeah…
Sorry, but offsetting, in context, is a lie. When you murder someone you can’t offset the death by going out the night before and having lots of sex without a condom. The murdered person is still dead no matter how many times you get pregnant. If you truly believed CO2 was the ultimate evil you could have stayed home and spent the offset money on planting the trees yourself.
80
I do hope this means we get colder temperatures and – crossing fingers – rains here in central Chile. Although it was nice to have a mild August for a change!
110
You would prefer a chilly Chile?
I’ll get me coat.
90
Tis okay, Steve. We know you are only trying to spice things up.
90
Mon/Tue looking like a southerly blast for southern South America, Fran,
yet Argentina seems to be more on the receiving end, again, than you west of the mountains:
Global Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure (7 day map)
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
The rest of the southern hemi landmasses appear to be relatively calm. Methinks they’re just going for headlines while Ms Thunberg is on her sponsored children’s crusade to Santiago (via New York). Just don’t mention the snow this week in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, the Urals, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, eastern Siberia… summer, huh?
90
Talking of snow in the northern hemisphere, here is the current projected end of Hurricane Dorian. After bouncing off the coast of Florida on Tuesday 3rd Sept and then the Carolinas on Thursday 5th Sept it might (just might) end up as an extratropical cyclone bringing snow to Southern Greenland on Monday 9th Sept.
40
‘Extra’ tropical cyclones do that too:
Back in the 1990s a Queensland troppo dropped southwards down the Tasman Sea, veered over our Southern Alps and dumped an
unprecedentedpleasant late summer (early winter?) snowfall on the hills surrounding Queenstown. I talked some buddies into going for a hike, up into the chutes of The Remarkables Ski Area, and we scored big time.The vagaries and surprises of Ma Nature never fail to charm me.
As for ‘Dorian’… the first ‘Fake Four’ category hurricane evah?
20
Stratospheric warming, like global warming, can be prevented.
Simply sacrifice something …
1. “The children were sacrificed to appease the El Nino phenomenon in Peru.
They were sacrificed to appease the El Nino phenomenon”, and show signs of being killed during wet weather, he said.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/peru-child-sacrifice/11459208
2. Explosives demolish huge chimney stack at Port Augusta power station –
“They want tens of millions of dollars to stay open for a short-term period,” he (Premier Jay Weatherill) said.
“That simply wouldn’t make sense for taxpayers and fundamentally wouldn’t solve the challenge we’d face.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-09/explosives-demolish-playford-power-station-chimney-stack/7828528
3. August 20, 2019: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña.
Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are mostly close to average, reflecting neutral tropical Pacific cloud patterns and rainfall.
Most climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of 2019, meaning other climate drivers are likely to remain as the primary influences on Australian and global weather.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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The huge stacks at Kurri aluminium plant that went offline in 2012 were demolished just before Christmas last year.
We don’t need jobs at aluminium plants and therefore we don’t need power stations: Australia is smart enough to live off its collective intelligence.
We’re cool.
Environmentally friendly.
Smart.
Smug?
Doomed?
410
Its good thing we dynamited the SA coal plant…save the reef…..
But wait:
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/senate-calls-for-great-barrier-reef-foundation-to-return-money/10813528
“Remember the Federal Government awarding $444 million to a small and relatively unknown charity with six full-time staff and a board that included fossil fuel companies?
“Since June, a Senate inquiry has been investigating the decision. Its report, tabled today, calls for the Great Barrier Reef Foundation to return all unspent funds to the Commonwealth immediately, and for the money to be earmarked to be spent on projects to protect and preserve the reef.”
But wait……hysteria…people running around in ever decreasing circles….maybe we need to keep that 44 4million after all? Good timing…no?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-30/great-barrier-reef-report-long-term-outlook-downgraded-very-poor/11464294
“For the first time, the long-term outlook for the Great Barrier Reef has been downgraded from “poor” to “very poor” by the Federal Government’s five-year reef report.
“The evidence-based report written by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) was described by its chairman Ian Poiner as “sobering”.
“The report said climate change is escalating and is the most significant threat to the Great Barrier Reef’s long-term survival.
“Experts said strong mitigation actions “within the next decade” are necessary to achieve the best possible outlook for the reef and future generations.
“”Specifically, early and effective global and national action on climate change, coupled with local actions to … facilitate recovery, are imperative over the next 10 years if the region is to have a positive long-term outlook.
“”The scientific evidence is clear: initiatives that will halt and reverse the effects of climate change at a global level and effectively improve water quality at a regional scale are the most urgent,” the report said.
Presumably this could also be used to help flush the remains of australian industry down the pan? Act local…think global…..kill off any mines or sugar farms or industry?
90
A question, how many of the so called climate scientists know what causes this Sudden Stratospheric Warming and what it actually does and how? If they don’t know why do they call themselves scientists, maybe I shouldn’t have said that because there will be more of them sobbing in their drinkies poor dears /sarc.
The more we read about their stupidity the more we should wonder what they are being paid for because it is obvious they know nothing about the climate of our planet.
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Ivan at #7 said:
Agreed. The IPCC made a huge mistake when it wrote off 99.9% of Solar Activity, only acknowledging 0.1% (TSI Variation) as a solar contributor — and then defined it as the `Solar Constant!‘ A known Variable Star suddenly becoming Constant? Glorious. I thought at the time it would bite them in the bum. It’s all coming home to roost, but unfortunately in geologic time not human time.
240
“The IPCC made a
huge mistakedeliberate exclusion when it wrote off 99.9% of Solar Activity”So IPCC what drives the climate? Turn the Sun off for 24 hours and try that. Oh I forgot, the atmosphere is a perpetual mobile that consumes free energy, not excluding the energy from SUVs exhausts and Windmills.
40
Yes, it was a deliberate exclusion, no argument there. It was still a huge mistake, as in A Big Bad Decision.
The SSW will bring us (NZ) a wet spring and a cool one. How much of that Oz will share, I know not but as a lot of our weather passes along the southern coastal regions of Oz …
This may be a weather map to watch. Mmm. There are more fronts there than there used to be …
I like it when the cooling is right on time 😛
40
That’s 24 fronts/lows/depressions in the southern hemi I counted there, sophocles, 17 if you discount the mid-latitude ones (some of which are twins or double-ups).
Must be lambing season out on the farms in the next few weeks. What happens every year when little lamb chops pop out in early September? There’s a cold snap, of course, and it snows. Spring must be on the way!
Experts™ and Media freak out, farmers deal with it (they’re used to it) and skiers/boarders head for the hills to get some freshies. It’s always been this way, yet the white-coats playing computer games inside their offices scream SUDDEN! Stratospheric! WARMING!!!!!!! As my dad would say: ignoramuses.
P.S. Thanks for the h/t, Jo. Gotta love that burnt sienna, hot brown/red colour NIWA used for their
propagandapap.21
Your Dad was/is right: ignoramuses and too many of them!
Tomorrow (Sunday) is the Official First Day of Spring.
The daffodils have been blooming for the last two weeks …
My cherry tree poked out a few measly blossoms over a week ago, but obviously didn’t like the temperature (it was a heat wave 15° C!) Cowardly tree.
Spring is sprung
Da grass is riz
I wonder where da boidies is?
Some say da boid is on da wing
But dat’s absoid:
Da wing is on da boid!
Where have you been? Lambing has already started: late August to late September if you travel from north to south…
(just dodge the weather on the way 🙂 )
Yep: must be Spring: the Tui fights have begun!
A thrush spent the previous two weeks singing his heart out. He’s either been catted or he’s found a mate. I hope it’s the latter. I like the throstle: a beautiful song bird to listen to. And death on wings for snails.
30
Where have I been?
Inside a factory warehouse / film set doing 12-hour days on a kids’ fantasy TV show. Haven’t been on a roadie out of the city for weeks – looking forward to heading down to Mt Ruapehu next month now that the snow blizzards have eased off and little lambies will be bouncing around the paddocks.
Almost 3 metres snow base at Whakapapa now, the access road was closed before midday due to the crowds enjoying the EPIC conditions. Click on The Pinnacles webcam (the pic which looks like an ice cream cake) to see how ‘catastrophic’ this [global warming] recent snow blizzard was:
https://www.metservice.com/skifields/whakapapa
The country’s first “climate safe house”? Ha! These shysters and snake oil salesmen will try anything. BRCT manager Scott Willis said, “The fact is that climate breakdown is underway and coastlines are no longer stable”. As if they ever were. Check out his photo as he stands atop one of Dunedin’s volcanic hills overlooking the harbour, dressed like Greta in heavy winter jacket and boots as a frigid squall passes by. ‘Climate breakdown’? Really?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/397841/flax-roots-climate-action-leads-to-the-first-climate-safe-house
“Being able to move the house is important in Waitati – much of which is on a floodplain“. D’oh! Blueskin Bay is a sand-filled tidal estuary to the north of Dunedin’s drowned volcanic crater/harbour/fault system. The local council says it’s a great way to “adapt to climate change”. Ignoramuses and too many of them! 🙂
10
“what causes this Sudden Stratospheric Warming”
Well duh! It’s humans of course. The “evidence” is overwhelming. The “science” is settled.
Pleasingly, we do have a solution (yep, same as before)…Carbon(sin) taxes.
Only if you repent, consume less (so that we can consume it on your behalf) and pay us
indulgences, eh “carbon credits” can you hope to be saved from the ‘Wrath of Gaia’ as determined by the ‘Climate Cult™’.Now, submit and all will be “happy and peaceful” under our “enlightened”, authoritarian hegemony.
-OR- we don’t know.
It’s definitely one of those two but we don’t talk about the second one; it’s simply just not as profitable 😉
170
There was an uptick in the Kp index (geomagnetic field response to solar activity) about four days ago (27th Aug), with a large equatorial coronal hole turning in. The solar wind speed also had an uptick (which means “Lumps in the Solar Wind” — good for cyclonic activity). I thought at the time that we would see something from all that. All returned to settled the next day.
Hurricane (Dorian [sp?]) forming in the Atlantic tropical hurricane “natal ward” region and now heading for Florida … yep, no surprise …
A “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” in the Southern Hemisphere … hmmm. Coincidence? Maybe not. The Ionosphere is open for more solar influence through the Solar Wind with the Earth’s magnetic field weakening at the rate it is.
Mt Stromboli (Italy) erupts again … and more strongly than it did a couple of months ago. It’s magma chamber might have gotten quite cooked by all the cosmic rays. 😛
Not bad. Two volcanoes on almost opposite sides of the planet going off almost simultaneously. Almost like the planet has had a “gas attack” in the planetary sphere for two such eructations … fingers crossed Campi Flegrei and Yellowstone don’t lose it. We can do without awakening those giants!
First day of spring on Sunday …
… looks as though we’re going to have a bumpy spring.
170
This links in to my old article here:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
Essentially, a less active sun alters the chemistry of the lower stratosphere differently between equator and poles so as to change the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles.
The result is more meridional jet stream tracks causing greater global cloudiness and less solar energy into the oceans for an eventual net cooling effect.
The frequency, size and intensity of stratospheric warming events increases when the sun is less active which is why we are seeing this event over the Antarctic whilst we are close to solar minimum.
190
Stephen:
The planetary magnetic field strength has dropped over the last decade by c. 5% + (or 5% per decade) and is now 15% + weaker than it was. Thus the Solar Wind can stir up the Ionosphere more than it could. Did you take that into account?
See https://magneticreversal.org
100
‘a less active sun alters the chemistry of the lower stratospher’
Yes and we also know CFCs were nothing to do with the ozone loss.
60
theRealUniverse:
One of my favourite books (“The Holes in the Ozone Scare” Maduro & Schauerhammer — still available from Amazon!) has an interesting chapter: Chapter 3: Ozone Depletion, or Doctored Data?. So it’s nothing new.
😛
50
Stephen does the ‘more meridional jet stream tracks’ cause blocking high pressure?
00
Otherwise it might simply be a quiet sun causing ‘blocking’.
http://www.micklehamweather.com/wxjetstream.php
00
Don’t concern yourself, it remains a mystery in need of a research grant.
‘ … to date no unique theoretical model of atmospheric blocking has been formulated that can account for all of its observational characteristics.’
Tibaldi and Molteni 2018
00
‘Research shows blocking persistence increases when solar activity is low, causing weather patterns to become locked in place at high and intermediate latitudes for prolonged periods of time.
‘During a solar minimum, the jet stream’s usual Zonal Flow (a west–east direction) reverts to more of a Meridional Flow (a north-south direction).
‘This is exaggerated further during a Grand Solar Minimum, like the one we’re entering now, and explains why regions become unseasonably hot or cold and others unusually dry or rainy, with the extremes lasting for an extended period of time.’
Electroverse
10
Somewhat o/t – looks like a result that needs swabbing
“NOAA Official : 124 Degrees In The Tasmanian Mountains”
https://realclimatescience.com/2019/08/noaa-official-124-degrees-in-the-tasmanian-mountains/
Jan/Feb 2019???
110
51℃ on a mountain in southern Tasmania. Probably happens often, usually when they are calculating figures for “the hottest year” since 1985 or 1990 etc.
Remember the towns in Columbia that had 2 months over 80℃ average, or the station in east Africa which sprang to life and issued its first temperature reading in 44 years, just in time to boost the average temperature.
110
Sounds like a bit of homogenisation using Alice Springs, or maybe Marble Bar?
Cheers
Dave B
90
The Bureau Of Misinformation has now deleted that temperature reading at Warra.
Here is the BOM’s daily temps recorded for this year at Warra.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=097024
And Warra is no longer accessible via the BOM’s Cimate Data site. It’s disappeared completely; does not exist !
But I went through the history on line and found it again. It’s still there just hidden.
80
You mean that it is just like Global Warming, you can’t see it but if you search for it you can produce an image?
10
Simple explanation – planet Earth has commenced spinning in the opposite direction.
Hence cyclones/hurricanes will now move from west to east and water will go down the plughole in the opposite direction (clockwise or ant-clockwise, depending which hemisphere you are in).
It is a pleasure to have been of assistance to you all.
90
Nah….the centrifugal forces in the upper atmosphere are concentrating CO2 … we are talking concentrations of CO2 high enough to make the upper atmosphere fizzy and bubbly like beer and so the bubbles rise up into the stratosphere.
90
Champagne Klimate!
Wonderful.
But is it alcoholic?
20
sophocles:
Judging by the Amalgamated Scaremonering Climate Scientists I would say that is definitely got some judgement inhibiting effects. Don’t take before driving. Nude bungey jumping is permitted.
10
Only for those for whom the bungey is superfluous!
(Saves on bungey’s wear and tear 🙂 )
00
‘Richard Scherhag first observed “explosive warmings in the stratosphere” (which he referred to as the “Berlin phenomenon”) in radiosonde measurements in Berlin, Germany, in January/February 1952 … ‘ wiki
Clearly its a sign of global cooling and the SSW fingerprint should be observed in the SH between 1890 and 1920 during transition from winter to spring.
70
The big question for this week – SSW – does that mean I should sell the cows or bring them home? Instability in the atmosphere at the time spring storms would normally start coming through, is this likely? I wish the BOM had done some useful research that actually helped inform people of the nation like it was supposed to, rather than run as PR department for globalist interests of the political and banking class.
So does the SSW make spring storms more likely? Anyone have any thoughts on this?
180
Expect change. Prepare for change. Set up to deal with the worst and hope for the best. Learn to read your clouds. Depend upon your farmer’s sense. Your national weather service is no big help.
Neither is the one we have in the US. My joint pain as almost been a better predictor of the next two days than our national weather service for decades. Looking out my window has a 100% accuracy each time I look out my window. Between times, not so much.
What else to do? Flip a coin about each issue and you will be about as right as whatever national weather service you are depending upon. If you want to be a bit more subtle, use a die to more finely divide your guesses.
Their are private services that are reported to be better, such as our Farmer’s Almanac, but I have none I can recommend.
140
Ah, I dunno Lionell, our BoM is pretty reliable. I’d say 97% in summer if they sat “hot and dry” for this area. And also in forecasting river heights for the Darling, after the floods have occurred in Queensland.
But rain forecast a week out usually evaporates within the forecast period.
Cheers
80
That was true for the summers when I lived in the Mojave Desert as well. It was a constant Hot and Dry for several decades. There was only one unpredicted thunderstorm that caused the burning of 10,000 bails of hay ($9 each at the time) on my friend’s alfalfa ranch. The winters and the “rainy season” was a different matter.
The Midwest USA is a weather problem all year. You already know the major pattern. What you don’t know is when and were until it happens. The weather forecast keeps changing until about an hour before the event. Then radar tells you what is going to happen. The forecast not so much. My joints gives me warning days in advance within a 100 mile radius.
50
It’s happening very high up Jane. Over 50 miles up.
It could help cause extra storminess in the Troposphere (the lowest atmospheric layer where we live). It mostly seems to affect the winds, but not so much way down here.
Watch the low-level weather patterns and pay attention to the weather forecasts. You’re going to get spring storms anyway. They shouldn’t be too bad this year: the sun is only just starting to wake up for Solar Cycle 25 so it should remain calm-ish for the next few months. As Lionel remarks: you can tell more about the weather in your area by looking out the window.
110
Learn to read your clouds… by looking out the window.
As a 15-year-old I used to do that in Maths class: the room faced north and provided a great vista of clouds scudding across the sky, whether on a sou’wester or nor’easter, rolling roiling folding reforming fluffy little clouds. Then BANG! A piece of chalk would hit me in the side of the head – or bounce off my desk – the teacher had a very accurate hand.
I never became a mathematician, yet I still happily stare at clouds…
40
Nice phase to point the finger at our real problem;
“globalist interests of the political and banking class”.
90
Proofread. Insert “r” as required.
30
So that would be “banking crass” then? 🙂
30
That too maybe.
10
‘So does the SSW make spring storms more likely?’
Probably not, its more to do with Cold Air Outbreaks (CAO) during the transition from winter to spring.
The big story is of course the blocking high pressure travelling too far south for this time of year. NIWA is only distracting us with SSW as spring gets a late start.
50
EG:
It cools the troposphere as in cold air outbreaks. That helps condense atmospheric water vapour. That will make for more rain/hail/snow…
Having re-read Stephen’s past posting here:
I’m picking normal to lower temps which could bring normal to more precipitation. Winds may vary in direction and strength but I’m not so sure how much. What the weather makes out of that will depend on the wind strengths and to an extent on solar activity. Fortunately, it’s not Tropical cyclone season yet.
It’s going to be an “Interesting Time.” or a bit of a bumpy ride.
10
The Southern Annular Mode remains in negative territory, an indication that winter may persist into spring.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html
20
as long as it brings rain, at this point I really don’t care if the poles invert…..
150
But BoM says (issued Aug 29):
A drier than average end to the year is likely for much of Australia, although the outlook for western Tasmania and southwest WA indicates a wetter than average September.
Spring days are likely to be warmer than average for mainland Australia, but cooler for western Tasmania.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains the main driver of Australia’s climate over the coming months. A positive IOD is typically associated with below average rainfall and warmer than average days for large parts of southern and central Australia.
70
How often is BoM wrong?
(64,000 Dollar question … 🙂 )
80
If they’re saying drier, it could also mean calmer.
50
But the IOD usually collapses in Spring..
So what is next.
This morning we had a spanker of frost
Bloody cold clear night.
It’s been a cold, cold Winter.
With average rains for us in the Adelaide Hills.
I wish all good luck with getting needed rain elsewhere.
60
93 & 94 were the driest years here, south of Brisbane, in my 32 years of records, with less than half the average rainfall.
This year is so far 35mm or 9% lower than that.
Near by Beaudesert has a similar rainfall history, with only 3 years that had less than 500mm of rain, 1993, 94, & 1902. I wonder how many SUVs were driving around Beaudesert in 1902?
80
Yeah here is BoM forecasting spring to be hotter and drier:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/bom-long-term-outlook-predicts-warm-dry-spring-on-the-way/11459312
50
As anyone with even half a brain will know climate is very complex. Even to suggest we could predict what will happen to the climate next week let alone in the next 100 years is an extremely arrogant and ill informed notion. Yet some have us believe we have a climate emergency. How about a power emergency? It’s something that’s very real and we can actually start to do something to resolve it today, not in 10+ years. Our governments, state and federal have let us down in a big way. They are all so irresponsible and negligent anyone who votes for them deserves to suffer the likely crash and burn.
110
If only we could “prorogue” our local, state and federal parliaments, tip out all the Rogues and send them all to join Saint Gretta in the U.N.
Permanently.
Then we could appoint an administrator.
100
Well the ACT was run by a govt dept for years…now they have a mickey mouse “assemblage” at great cost to residents, that put in billion dollar trams and useless solar farms and paints roundabouts in rainbow colours…..
60
So, who’s been playing their HAARP this time and are waiting all ready to play their ‘ol smoke-and-mirrors CO2 rising blame-game???
40
Likely…if you watch the clouds you can work out the haarp frequency based on altitude and spaces between clear and cloudy strips of sky .
I have seen a square cloud once….
nah…haarp doesnt exist….its all cnspircy thery apparently…
00
Slightly off topic however could be related I found a paper purporting a maunder minimum.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1908.02576.pdf
7 Conclusions
Our study underlines the causal relationship between solar activity changes and
the corresponding global response of the earth’s magnetosphere via the variations quantified by the stand-off distances of the BS and MP. Our study mainly showed an increasing trend in the stand-off distance of MP and BS corresponding to the observed decreasing trend in solar high-latitude photospheric polar fields and solar wind micro-turbulence
levels since the mid-1990’s. A similar increasing trend was also observed for the MP shape
till 2008 which is the minimum of the solar cycle 23. However, a forecast of the MP shape
in 2020, the expected minimum of cycle 24, showed a smaller MP stand-off distance. Further, we find two instances between 1968 and 1991 when the MP stand-off distance reach
closest to 6.6 Earth radii (the geostationary orbit) for duration ranging from 9−11 hours
and a single event in 2005, after the start of the decline in photospheric fields began. Finally, the decline in photospheric fields has now continued for over two solar cycles or
one full magnetic cycle of 22 years. If the declining trend continues beyond 2020, a Maunder minimum like condition may be expected beyond solar cycle 25.
Continued investigation to understand and forecast the influence of solar activity
on the near earth environment and the ecosystem is, therefore, of considerable importance
70
Wednesday last, Perth experienced its hottest August day since records began, and the record was broken by at least 3 degrees.
So now we have 2 extreme events, which is much more consistent with the warming hypothesis than the single event reported here.
123
You had me at “since records began“.
130
🙂
Would that be less than 100 years ago?
Compared to the known dynamism of Earth’s climate even just over the last 7,000 years, that’s not much.
And that’s without discussing the obvious creeping UHI effect.
130
1898
014
Wrong. Mt Eliza recording site was first operational on 1st January 1897. Incidentally, the early 11-year mean was noted to be 0.5 C cooler than the previous site in the Perth CBD, at Supreme Court Gardens.
100
See you have addressed some of this further down
30
Yes. Perhaps what annoys me most is the BOM habit of switching their timeframe references around so they sometimes reference temps from all three sites, then other times only from the latest site. To me this smacks of deliberate misinformation that is designed to mislead the public, and the local press fall for it every time.
80
Further to Graeme#4, the previous Perth Aug record was set in 1940 at the old Perth Regional site which closed in 1992 with no overlap and is approx 4km away from the current Perth Metro site. In addition and without checking I assume the old reading was via mercury thermometer whereas the current is an AWS and the old record was also a week earlier in the year.
60
Actually the Mt Eliza site closed earlier, because when I was working in East Perth 1969 to 1980, the East Perth site was operational. I think it was the East Perth site that closed in 1992.
60
From BoM, current station is Perth Metro (Mt Lawley), 1993-present, Perth Regional 1876-April 1992 and Perth Gardens 1876-Dec 1930
30
I’m not surprised that BOM site info is confusing Alan, as both the Mt Eliza and East Perth sites may have been regarded as site 9034. Look at waclimate.net for a more detailed story.
Perth Gardens (Renamed Supreme Court Gardens) site opened in 1876 and closed in 1897.
Mt Eliza started in 1897 and stopped in 1967. However, there may have been a screen move in 1963 due to site works – not sure.
East Perth (9034) started in 1967 and stopped in 1992.
Mt Lawley (9225) started in 1994 (2- year gap?) and is the official recording site.
20
Yeah but they know we had the hottest Aug day eva -sarc/
The other thing I didn’t mention was that the population of Perth around 1940 was only of the order of 250,000
00
Lucky old Perth. We had another -3C start to the day today and a hard frost. My poor daffodils are sagging after looking wonderful yesterday…they had just reached full perfection. Ice Follies indeed. 🙁
110
Yes the Hot Desert Spirit decided that Perth had had it’s share of Winter
And sent them a hot desert wind for a day.
But then the Cold Sea Devil
Got annoyed
And sent a cold, cold wave of wind & rain over Perth
And the Hot Desert Spirit
Slunk off back to his deserts.
See, Peter we can tell mythological stories too.
But we KNOW they are myths & stories.
You don’t.
90
Actually Bill I still believe that the warmer ocean temps off our SW corner of WA have a lot to do with the warmer winters we have experienced in Perth for the past 3 years. But then the last 3 summers have been noticeably cooler and more humid, so really can’t complain – it’s glorious weather right now.
80
‘ … more consistent with the warming hypothesis than the single event reported here.’
This is bigger than a trace gas.
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
Why is SSW only happening on one side of Antartica?
70
Do you agree that the atmosphere can be described as a chaotic system? If you do, that’s the answer to your question. For those who have some understanding of equivalence and the various laws of thermodynamics would understand that hot and cold events would be linked.
214
Peter, if you believe that it’s a chaotic system, then how can you also believe that humans can influence a chaotic system?
220
“For those who have some understanding of equivalence and the various laws of thermodynamics”
So NOT you. !!
160
‘Do you agree that the atmosphere can be described as a chaotic system?’
It appears chaotic because we don’t understand how it works. All we ask for is a supercomputer to hindcast, so that we can get a grip on paleo climate history before plunging into an unknown future.
70
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
IPCC: https://web.archive.org/web/20181103051332/https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm
60
Over centennial time frames we should be able to work out the drivers. Here we have four epochs, clearly non linear, but we should be able to predict whats coming.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V22/aug/a6.php
The take out is that during the very warm MWP the CO2 concentration was pathetic.
50
So where was the CO2 line – that paper is just reporting on the temp in one location, the only time CO2 is mentioned is in the snarly concluding paragraph. I will note that, in the last period of the graph the rate of change is very high (v steep slope for the initiated).
But to the point (again, sigh) there was an abnormally hot day (record breaking, but not reported here) which precedes a forecast series of cold days (which is reported here). I would suggest that they are related, and further that relationship is the chaotic way the atmosphere deals with heat energy (which has increased, pointing to more extremes). CO2 is not a factor here, although it is a necessary precursor
07
Poor PF, battling against his own ignorance 24/7
Comprehension issues, lack of science background
LACK OF EVIDENCE
Left with only baseless, mindless gibberish.
One day is NOT climate, little boy !
60
I think the point made further up is correct – if you have a chaotic system ( climate ) logically it is impossible to accurately measure mans influence upon it.
Its a bit like dividing zero by any number is still….. zero.
30
for the newbies, Mr T. Jones is providing an example of taking a quote out of context
‘Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and scenarios, including development and exploration of long-term ensemble simulations using complex models. The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system�s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential.’
the headline was
Further work is required to improve the ability to detect, attribute, and understand climate change, to reduce uncertainties, and to project future climate changes. In particular, there is a need for additional systematic observations, modelling and process studies. A serious concern is the decline of observational networks. Further work is needed in eight broad areas: (my bold)
Nice try – you get the cherry pickers prize of the day
010
No Peter !!
You get the Garbled jargon prize of the day.
Travis picked the only part of that bumbling paragraph which makes any sense !
I think that you are trying to
Confuse us all
With Global Warming Jargonish
But we’ve all got enough brains here to see through your scheme !
70
for the newbies.
PF is talking a load of mindless gibberish
This is all he knows. !
60
Sorry, Andy. P.F. is fluent in plain gibberish as well. next comment deleted
30
all of which is but an excuse for ignoring cloud cover …
20
For a start, it wasn’t broken by 3 degrees, closer to 2. Next, look at where the comparison temps were recorded. The original temps were recorded on top of a cool hill above Perth which was always MUCH cooler than Perth city, so much so that the early TV weather always mentioned two temps, the “official” temp which nobody believed was the true Perth temp, and the actual Perth temp in the CBD.
Now look at where the recent temp was recorded. North of Perth CBD, well away from any influence of cooling breezes.
This is yet another classic case of comparing apples to oranges.
What is also interesting is that whenever the BOM mentions a cooler temp, it only ever uses records back to 1995, when the “official” recording was moved to its current location.
Comparisons using Perth Airport as a long-term reference site have shown that the three recording moves have increased Perth’s recorded temps from between 1.5 to 2 degrees.
140
then by your “logic” all the temps must be suspect. To compare the official temp with a mythical CDB record, and since it’s Perth the term CBD is a stretch, and the ‘CBD’ is also very close to the river. But go ahead, pretend.
122
Yes, of course all the current Perth temps are suspect. Even the last site, in East Perth, was suspect because it was influenced by early sea breezes sweeping up the Swan River and up over the hill past the measurement site. I know these effects because I worked nearby for 12 years, and we always appreciated the early arrival of the “Fremantle Doctor”, something that didn’t occur at my home which was less distance from the coast.
This subject is covered in great detail in a local blog which I presume you haven’t researched before commenting.
Also, why is it when you are challenged by somebody that points out more information on a subject, you respond by a personal attack?
150
And BTW, also worked in Mt Lawley for most of five years. Once you move inland from Perth onto the flat sand plains the temps rise by 1-2 degrees because the sea breezes don’t penetrate much and the heat comes down off the Darling Scarp. Never wanted to live there.
60
Should have added “and north”.
40
“But go ahead, pretend.”
That’s your science methodology , PF !
It is noted that, yet again, you have produce zero-evidence of anything, producing just another EMPTY comment
140
This is a “tar baby” argument….
30
Another comment about “since records began.” No, because Perth’s temps were first recorded in Supreme Court Gardens, but this wasn’t using a Stephenson Screen, so those records tend to be ignored when referring to Perth’s temp records.
And another comment: Perth now seems to be experiencing warmer winters but noticeably cooler summers. Naturally the BOM ignores the cooler summers, instead focusing on one day when it was unusually warm. I thought these events are normally known as weather, not climate.
120
Make up your mind – wherever that temperature was recorded it was a record.
010
Peter Fitzroy:
I hereby nominate you for the Most Fatuous Statement of 2019 contest.
Good luck in the judging – First prize is your choice of 3 months holidays in either The Cook Islands or Macquarie Island.
Shall I tick the latter choice on the nomination form?
60
And a recorded record.
But then, most records are, by definition, Recorded.
Previously, in the age of enlightenment, records were recorded on paper which provides, even now, a tangible record of the event.
In the age of Grettanesque enlightenment records are recorded on computer just in case the record needs to be homogenized.
KK
30
No dammit, it’s NOT a record because you CANNOT refer to a temperature series recorded at a totally different site. You can only refer to temps recorded at the SAME site.
30
It’s spelled, Dimwit.
10
Local weather affected by lots of urban development.
Stop your idiotic panicking.
There is nothing wrong with the occasional warm day in winter. !
130
You’re using the drunks’ argument “Its always 5 o’clock somewhere”.
70
No I’m commenting on the ‘rare cold event’ which is following an equally rare hot one, and suggesting that there might be a link between the two
18
Peter,
do you know what a Cold Front is? In much of Southern Aus from Perth to Melbourne, it’s called a “Cool Change.” The leading edge of the front is warm air from the north. Then it rains. The trailing edge of the front is cooler/colder air from the South and South west, hence the Cool Change. The further South the air is drawn from, the cooler/colder it is.
If you want to call that a link between the two then go ahead. It’s just a common weather phenomenon.
Note: Weather is not Climate.
70
“No I’m commenting on the ‘rare cold event’ which is following an equally rare hot one, and suggesting that there might be a link between the two”
OMG, the nonsense and ignorance behind that comment is totally hilarious.
Never go full retard, PF. !!
30
‘ … there might be a link between the two.’
Correct, atmospheric blocking is the connection.
00
Perth is a ‘Ghost Metropolis’, Peter. You can’t fool us.
Everyone and their Tim Flannery doll knows that the city has been completely abandoned for years.
120
The two coldest temps I can find anywhere in the midcoast region of NSW are for August 2018 and for May (31, but May!) 2019. Last year’s -4.4 is the coldest temp outright, the -4.1 this year is the coldest, by far, outside winter. They were certainly eerie plunges out here in the hills. Daily readings before the 60s not available.
From all this I conclude…nothing.
(Checking, I find that -4.4 has only lately become -4.2 and neither reading shows up in Weatherzone’s “Climatology” now, just in the straight BoM record. I really don’t know why they bother, since the last couple of winters haven’t been too cold. Maybe it’s just an exercise in convincing us Winston Smiths that 5 fingers make 4 and 4 fingers make 5.)
40
Because it wasn’t over the whole of the Southern Hemisphere, Peter, and didn’t make it to Antarctica, it only qualifies as local (Perth) weather and So What?
10
Would the BoM dare to make a short term prediction so that farmers can prepare and there will not be another unpredicted flooding disaster like summer 2019?
Catastrophic Queensland floods killed 600,000 cattle and devastated native species (unpredicted)
https://theconversation.com/catastrophic-queensland-floods-killed-600-000-cattle-and-devastated-native-species-120753
BoM Nov 29, 2018, Climate and Water Outlook, December 2018–February 2019
2.48: Rainfall outlook (Zero predictions of floods, but tons of heatwaves comin’ out the wahzoo!!!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlonMv1Z_oY&list=PLbKuJrA7Vp7naJL31deES8QAV5E0q6U_H&index=19&t=0s
Or, will Lake Eyre fill again because of global warming?
Water in Lake Eyre/Kati Thanda – August 01, 2019
“The harsh Australian desert environment means the lake sits dry most of the time.
On average every eight years or so flood waters from inland Queensland flow down river systems such as the Diamantina River, Cooper Creek and Warburton Creek and enter into Lake Eyre North.
However some level of flooding has occurred every year since 2009.”
https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/goodliving/posts/2019/08/lake-eyre-kati-thanda-update
August 24, 2019: One of Lake Eyre’s biggest flooding events in living memory is delivering an unprecedented tourism boom with visitor numbers up 600%.
https://twitter.com/7NewsBrisbane/status/1165373967953203200
110
‘Or, will Lake Eyre fill again because of global warming?’ No the ‘theme’ is it will get even drier due to (fake) globull warming.
60
Another amazing phenomenon. At what point do these Climate experts admit there is much more they don’t know than they do.
I cannot imagine that people were testing air temperatures over the South Pole at 30km high in 1950. So we are just beginning to realise how much we do not know. No suprise there.
Personally I believe the sun is the cause of everything and the vast mobile and highly variable and poorly understood oceans are the greatest force in determining climates and certainly the greatest store of solar heat on the planet and the origin of all weather. Or you can just listen to college football captain Al Gore and hear ‘the Science is in’.
170
There is stored heat in the ocean from an overactive sun last century, this takes time to dissipate. I cannot fault your hypothesis, but you give no credit to the moon.
80
I don’t want to be labelled a Loony.
70
Should that be a luney?
40
Hang on, turn around, and don’t move while I rip that label off …
… stop twitching; it won’t hurt!
30
‘Satellite measurements of the temperature of the atmosphere shows that the poles are 0.55 degrees Celsius (0.99 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer during a full moon than during a new moon.
‘Measurements show no effect on temperatures in the tropics, but the temperature around the globe is on average 0.02 degrees Celsius (0.036 degrees Fahrenheit) higher during the full moon. These small temperature changes have a slight but measurable affect on the weather.’
Sciencing
80
Is that Solar energy reflected from the moon to Earth’s?
Interesting.
30
KK
Or is it due to P.F. baying at the full moon? He does emit a lot of warm CO2 you must admit.
30
It must have something to do with reflection.
20
Tallbloke suggests that ENSO behaviour is a solar lunar combo.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/06/23/are-the-sun-and-moon-both-acting-on-el-nino-events/
This is important because ENSO has a universal impact on weather and temperature. Being able to predict its MO long in advance would save trillions in agro business.
40
He could have something there. Lunar cycle all up is 18 years and ENSO runs at around 9 or so years.
30
They say this fellow is a genius, but as I don’t understand its hard to know.
http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com
10
‘ poorly understood oceans ‘
Add in undersea volcanism, to what extent..unknown. Mapping of active volcanism is in infancy, then theres the active spreading ridges. Yes all VERY unknown.
30
There are estimated to be about a thousand or more active submarine volcanoes. Pumice rafts have reappeared. They’re usually associated with active volcanoes in the Tongan Trench — .
There’s a big pumice raft floating around out there right now which says there is a current or very recent eruption somewhere there.
40
Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. It has been measured by NASA/RSS since 1988. WV has been increasing about twice as fast as calculated from temperature increase (feedback). In the period 1988-2002 about 5 water vapor molecules were added for each CO2 molecule and According to Spectracalc/Hitran each WV molecule is about 5 times as effective as a CO2 molecule at absorbing/emitting radiation emitted by earth’s surface.
70
five times zero is still zero!
40
******* O/T Jo, but I just saw this post on WUWT:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/08/29/aussie-government-unesco-should-not-cite-climate-risks-to-the-great-barrier-reef/
The key bit is this:
“At a meeting of the committee in July, Australian representatives (at a meeting with UNESCO) said climate change should not be used as the basis for an in danger listing for world heritage properties.
“We would not expect to see propositions that climate change threats would form the basis for in danger listing individual properties because this is a global problem not amenable to site-level intervention,” Stephen Oxley, from the environment and energy department, told the committee.”
Basically, our Dept of Environment and Energy is telling UNESCO that Australia does not recognise that ‘site-level interventions’ are effective (or appropriate) for any world heritage properties that UNESCO claims are threatened by climate change. WoW! So will our PM follow this up with ‘we will not ban farming runoff or dredging, etc. near the GBR’ for the same reason – it logically follows, doesn’t it?
82
“we will not ban farming runoff or dredging,”
These are not climate risks.
They do affect at a local level.
There are no “climate risks™”, (as in risks from human effects on climate), because we haven’t done anything to affect the global climate.
You are creating a strawman.
101
Who dredges “near the reef”? The nearest bommie [what makes a barrier reef] is 77 KMs from Abbott point. Let google earth be your friend.
70
Sorry Boyfrom, but since everyone is telling us the Reef is nearly completely dead there is now absolutely no reason not to open the entire region to, well, pretty much everything.
After all, it is DEAD. Got to look to the future and all that.
Unless of course it isn’t actually dead, in which case it should remain protected, admired and respected for all to enjoy… but nope, DEAD. Time to start mining.
70
Or drilling for oil…heck why not build some apartment blocks for a few squillion each?
20
Just in on A(BS)C news, midday.
Environment minister telling bald face lies about the GBR! All questions..how is climate change..this that..more lies more FAKE science being told.
Never mind just sack the truth tellers like Ridd and move into phase 2 of the ‘Agenda’ with compliant media idiot journos what do you expect.
UNSECO (useless UN govt quango) says it must be protected from..klimate change..
40
Marx was a sop paid for by the Elite to create an anti human manifesto of stupidity to creste a tension in the world to create an explotable group of useful idiots to run riot and destroy stuff as needed.
If you want to see evil at work, watch communism in full flight….
30
Marx was to deflect attention from Henry George who was scaring the pants off the elites.
00
29 Aug: EverythingGP: GP (Grand Prairie) weather: Hey summer, did you forget about us?
According to Environment Canada, Grande Prairie basically only had one week of summer.
There were only seven days in June, July and so far this August where it got above 25 degrees.
“Typically in a summer in Alberta we get a ridge of high pressure that gives us several days of really warm, nice temperatures in the high 20’s, even low 30’s and that’s what was really missing was this ridge of high pressure giving several days of nice weather,” explained Kyle Fougere, Meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
To compare, last summer Grande Prairie had 27 days that got hotter than 25 degrees.
It was only the fourth time in the past 20 years that we have had a summer that was below average, the last time was in 2011.
Going back through our records through 1931, the average for the summer temperature would be 15 degrees (averaging the highs and lows). June was an average of 13.7 degrees this year, July was 15.6, and August so far has been 13.7.”
Precipitation was 22 mm above average this summer. Grande Prairie received 217 mm of rain in June, July and August, compared to the average 195 mm…ETC
https://everythinggp.com/2019/08/29/gp-weather-hey-summer-did-you-forget-about-us/
30
The subtropical ridge has lost its intensity, its a global cooling signal.
‘ … the downward phase of the ~ 60-year AMO oscillation should cause a reduction in global temperatures of ~ 0.1-0.2 °C over the next 20-30 years, all other things being equal.’
Javier (guest post wuwt)
40
AUDIO: 9min02sec: 30 Aug: ABC Breakfast: Science with Jonathan Webb: When should the ‘anthropocene’ era start?
Presenter: Geraldine Doogue
The term “anthropocene”: it’s the term scientists have proposed for a new geological epoch, defined by the thumbprint that humanity has left on our planet.
Many have suggested the mid-20th century as the beginning of this new age—based on measurable changes—like radioactive traces from nuclear testing.
But a study published today in the journal Science mounts the case for a much earlier start — describing the vast changes left behind by ancient civilisations, stretching back 3,000 years into the past.
Featured: Jonathan Webb (ex-BBC) now ABC Science editor
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/science-with-jonathan-webb/11464120
30 Aug: ABC: Ancient civilisations had a bigger impact on Earth’s environment than we thought
ABC Science, By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
When we think of humans affecting the Earth’s environment, we mostly consider the profound changes we’ve made since the Industrial Revolution…
“You’ve got a long-term trajectory of environmental transformation which is quite significant by about 3,000 years ago on a global scale,” said study co-author Tim Denham, an archaeologist at the Australian National University (ANU).
The researchers said their findings raise questions about when the Anthropocene — the modern geological epoch driven by human activity — actually began…
For some time, scientists have argued that we have entered the Anthropocene epoch.
But there is still significant debate around when that epoch began…
Some argue that the date should be around the late 1700s with the invention of the steam engine in the early days of the Industrial Revolution.
The first detonation of a nuclear device in 1945 has also been suggested as the starting date of the new age.
But given the intense and widespread alteration of ecosystems across the globe by 3,000 years ago, the researchers argue the age of humans dominating the environment began well before the mid-20th century…
But humans influencing the natural world, and being the primary driver of change in the environment and climate systems are two different things, according to Will Steffen, also from ANU.
Professor Steffen is a member of the Anthropocene Working Group, which voted 29-to-4 in favour of marking the mid-20th century as the beginning of the new geological epoch…
“It’s only after World War II where you had these new institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, globalisation, that’s where there was a step-change in human impact on the Earth.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-08-30/ancient-civilisations-environmental-impact/11450072
00
29 Aug: NYT: Humans Dominated Earth Earlier Than Previously Thought
by James Gorman
By 3,000 years ago, the experts wrote in Science magazine, the planet had been “largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists.”…
The results vary for different farming practices and different regions, said Erle Ellis, a geographer and environmental scientist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and a designer of the ArchaeoGLOBE project, as the research effort is called. But, he said, it is clear that the information pushes back the onset and spread of major human change to the global environment earlier than previously thought, sometimes by 1,000 years or more…
“What we’re showing,” said Lucas Stephens, who helped design and administer the survey of 250 or so archaeologists on which the report is based, “is that there is a deep history of this, going back further than what earth scientists currently recognize.” Dr. Stephens, now at the Environmental Law and Policy Center in Chicago, organized the survey while he was at the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Maryland, Baltimore County…
“It’s an important paper,” said John Williams, a paleoecologist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who was not involved in the project.
He said it “establishes clearly” that the Anthropocene, the age of human dominance of the planet’s ecological and climate systems, did not begin just a few hundred years ago. “You can trace it back thousands of years,” he said…
The History Database of the Global Environment, developed by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University, and known as the HYDE data set, is a major resource for scientists who forecast global change. It has estimated that humans began altering the planet much more recently than the findings in the new report indicate.
But the person who has been developing the HYDE data set since its beginning, Kees Klein Goldewijk of Utrecht University, is also one of the authors of the new paper, and welcomes the new information. The reason, he said, is that the limitations of HYDE are well known. It is a model that projects estimates into the past, much the way climate change models predict future events…
It is far from definitive, Dr. Stephens said. Rather, it is more of a first pass — a demonstration of what can be done. It is limited by the archaeologists who chose to respond to the survey and by what they study. But it mirrors other recent evidence, Dr. Williams said, suggesting that the HYDE estimates of when global change began do not reach back far enough…
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/science/archaeology-earth-anthropocene.html
30 Aug: Science Mag: How humans changed the face of Earth
Author: Neil Roberts
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK.
School of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.
View Full Text LINK
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6456/865
00
***”climate scientists say it creates a dangerous debate around the role humans have played in climate change”
boils down to ABC’s Bridget Fitzgerald: “but those who work in climate science”, introducing Steffen. then Dr. Kay, contributing author, acknowledges Steffen has a valid concern, but…
AUDIO: 2min58sec: 30 Aug: ABC AM: Debate over the history of human impact on the planet
By Bridget Fitzgerald on AM
A new study has found humans began to dramatically transform the global environment 3,000 years ago with things like land clearing and intensive agriculture…
***But climate scientists say it creates a dangerous debate around the role humans have played in climate change.
Featured:
Tim Denham, Associate Professor in Archaeology, Australian National University
Will Steffen, Councillor, Climate Change Institute
Dr Andrea Kay, Post-doctoral Research Fellow, University of Queensland Archaeology Department
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/debate-over-the-history-of-human-impact-on-the-planet/11463780
this boils down to just another ABC call to ACTIVISM, excruciating stuff:
AUDIO: 16min12sec: 30 Aug: ABC Life Matters: Why we think we’re more environmentally responsible than we are
Presenter: Hillary Harper
PIC: Image: Solar panels on the roof of a large house
A new study has found many Australians believe they are more environmentally responsible than they actually are in real life. And it turns out psychology can help us work out why.
***Dr Zoe Leviston, a post-doctoral researcher who studies social psychological theory at Edith Cowan University, and Rebecca Gilling, Deputy CEO of Planet Ark, take us through the psychology of people who aspire to be environmentally sustainable, but shun the title of activist.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lifematters/why-we-think-were-more-environmentally-responsible-than-we-are/11454286
7 Feb 2014: The Conversation: Most Australians overestimate how ‘green’ they really are
by ***Zoe Leviston, Research Scientist, CSIRO
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It was CO2 wot dun it! Arrest that molecule! :).
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Which one?
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There are 4 CO2 molecules in every unit of atmosphere (10,000 molecules).
So which one is guilty?
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29 Aug: ClimateDepot: Marc Morano: NASA: Global Wildfires Drop By 25% Since 2003 – Plus Study finds Earth’s tree cover increased by 7% since 1982…
MULTIPLE LINKS
4) Matt Ridley: The Most Dangerous Thing About The Amazon Fires Is The Apocalyptic Rhetoric
LINK The Spectator, 31 August 2019…
https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/08/29/nasa-global-wildfires-drop-by-25-since-2003-plus-study-finds-earths-tree-cover-increased-by-7-since-1982/
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this is what $443 million from Malcolm gets you…and it takes 3 taxpayer-funded ABC-ers to transcribe what’s in the report:
30 Aug: ABC: Great Barrier Reef long-term outlook ‘very poor’, Federal Government reef report finds
By Specialist Reporting Team’s Penny Timms, Laura Gartry and Allyson Horn
Updated 20 minutes ago
For the first time, the long-term outlook for the Great Barrier Reef has been downgraded from “poor” to “very poor” by the Federal Government’s five-year reef report.
The evidence-based report is written by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA), and reviewed and released by the Federal Environment Minister…
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority chief scientist Dr David Wachenfeld said everything possible should be done to create recovery windows.
“Gradual sea temperature increase and extremes, such as marine heat waves, are the most immediate threats to the reef,” he said.
“Global action on climate change is critical.”…READ ON
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-30/great-barrier-reef-report-long-term-outlook-downgraded-very-poor/11464294
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“Though I’d venture to guess that we haven’t got much data on temperatures 30km above Antarctica in 1922 (or whenever).”
If it was global warming, the climate scientists would tell us there is data going back 2 million or more years, ice cores for example.
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29 Aug: RenewEconomy: Sophie Vorrath: NSW puts interstate transmission link project on the fast-track
The New South Wales government has signalled its intention to fast-track the development of a 800km transmission line linking the state’s grid to renewables rich South Australia, after awarding the $1 billion project “critical infrastructure” status.
NSW Planning Minister Rob Stokes said on Thursday that the proposed high-voltage interstate grid connection”could provide an important piece of NSW’s energy security puzzle by improving network security and reliability.”
The project, which is being led by transmission network companies ElectraNet and Transgrid, has been hailed by its proponents as the answer to the decline of black coal generation in NSW, and as a substitute to high-cost gas generation in South Australia…
“The retirement of coal generation is expected to be most rapid in New South Wales,” it says, noting that the state is facing the imminent closure of Liddell, and then Vales Point, with Bayswater and Eraring following in 2035.
They said the new link would help deliver significant new wind and solar resources to NSW from South Australia, while numerous solar projects totalling more than 600MW in the pipeline in the Riverina region of NSW would also be unlocked…
NSW environment minister Matt Kean said this week that the transmission line was a priority project for the state’s Transmission Infrastructure Strategy, as well as for the planning for the greater grid – it will include a side connection to Victoria, too…
The push to fast-track the new transmission line comes as the Basslink undersea cable connecting mainland Australia to Tasmania suffers another outage, which looks like taking it out of the equation until October…
The problem has since been traced to an above-ground section of the low-voltage cable in the transition station in Victoria…
https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-puts-interstate-transmission-link-project-on-the-fast-track-10531/
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ruineconomy.com
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Errr? Except that SA very, very, rarely generates enough wind and solar power to supply its own demand !
Any surplus SA exports is always from Gas generators, and even then it is minimal (<500MW), and infrequent.
why do they lie like doped up teenagers ?
when will they understand that interconnectors, poles and wires, batteries , etc etc, do not generate electricity or even make intermittent generation any more dispatchable. !
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Obviously , someone stands to make a LOT of money from this infrastructure. !
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And the continued operation of the SA renewables.
No Politicians were involved in any of these decisions.
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Surely this isn’t just a case of the theory can’t explain it if a temperature gradient inversion is the cause.
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Might not be an ice cream truck but I suspect a non-weather related explanation for it.
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25 Aug: ChinaDaily: Xinhua: China’s coal output surges in past 70 years
Coal output reached 3.68 billion tonnes in 2018, 115 times of only 32 million tonnes 70 years ago, according to Huang Yuzhi, head of the National Coal Mine Safety Administration.
As China improves coal mine efficiency and cuts outdated capacity, the number of coal mines saw a significant decrease to about 5,700 in 2019 compared with about 82,000 in 1997, he said…
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201908/25/WS5d623b59a310cf3e35567b9f.html
26 Aug: RFA (RadioFreeAsia): China Plans New Coal Mines Despite Curbs
An analysis by Michael Lelyveld
On Aug. 6, a Reuters report raised concerns that China may be planning a push for more coal output, based on an examination of documents from the National Energy Administration (NEA)…
https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/china-plans-new-coal-mines-despite-curbs-08262019103907.html
28 Aug: Bloomberg: India Considers Ending Ban on Foreign Investment in Coal Mining
Move will end monopoly of state-run companies in the sector
By Abhijit Roy Chowdhury; With assistance by Shruti Srivastava, and Vrishti Beniwal
The change would allow overseas miners such as BHP Group Ltd. and Glencore Plc. to own 100% of mining companies…
While most developed nations are turning away from the fossil fuel, demand is rising in India. Opening up coal mining could tackle fuel shortages and revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy which expanded at 5.8% in the March quarter, the slowest pace since 2014. Data due Friday will probably show India’s gross domestic product slowed further, expanding 5.7% in quarter ended June 30…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/india-is-said-to-mull-backing-foreign-investment-in-coal-mining
23 Aug: S&P Global: Indonesia’s May thermal coal exports rises 6% on month; exports to China highest since Jan 2014
Indonesia exported 30.6 million mt of thermal coal in May, up 6% on the month and up 20% on the year, according to latest customs data…
India was the largest destination…
India’s coal demand to boost Mackay development: Adani boss
Daily Mercury – 9 hours ago
MACKAY development would skyrocket if future coal mines in the Galilee Basin … servicing those traditional markets like Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China…
YET TODAY REUTERS IS PUSHING THIS FANTASY – CHINA HASN’T DONE ANY PUSHING AS YET!
30 Aug: Reuters: China pushes regions to maximize renewable energy usage
China’s parliament ***will send inspection teams throughout the country to ensure regions are prioritizing renewable energy resources, the official Xinhua news agency reported, in a bid to cut waste and boost the sector’s profitability…
Some regions have been criticized for wasting large amounts of potential renewable energy, either by failing to build enough grid capacity to carry the power or by giving priority to more conventional sources of power like coal or natural gas…
Last week, China said the rate of wastage in the solar power sector fell 1.2 percentage points to 2.4% in the first half of this year, but it was still at 25.7% in Tibet and 10.6% in Xinjiang.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-renewables/china-pushes-regions-to-maximize-renewable-energy-usage-idUSKCN1VK087
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“We (as in Africa, Australia, Argentina, or New Zealand) …”
People in Chile need not worry.
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Well the folks living in Andean Argentina are certainly a bit worried.
Many towns were snowed in earlier this month.
Which is unusual on the lower eastern slopes of the Andes
As it is rain shadowed.
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29 Aug: AFR: TransGrid seeks to reduce risk of SA-NSW cable as returns cut
by Angela Macdonald-Smith
TransGrid chief executive Paul Italiano said the NSW grid owner is locked in talks with customers and stakeholders to find ways to reduce the risk of the proposed $1.5 billion NSW-South Australia electricity interconnector to try to ensure the project is investable after a cut in the allowed rate of return.
Speaking after the NSW government deemed the project “critical state significant infrastructure”, Mr Italiano said that the reduction in the rate of return forced by tougher regulation required the risk of the investment also to be reduced.
“As the CEO of a company that is hoping to be able to make this investment, gaining capital support for it is harder for me now than it was before,” Mr Italiano said.
“If there’s an opportunity for us to derisk the project then we can close some of the gap on the risk-reward trade-off.”
His comments follow those of Rick Francis, chief executive of minority TransGrid owner Spark Infrastructure, who suggested earlier this week (LINK) that the return now allowed of little more than 4 per cent risked making the SA-NSW cable project unattractive…
Meanwhile, the South Australian government’s move to lease 270 megawatts of gas power turbines to Infigen Energy and Nexif Energy, announced on Wednesday, look set to reduce the risk of blackouts in South Australia and Victoria after this summer.
The nine 30 MW turbines, which currently run on diesel, won’t help with the tightness in the market this coming summer, however, as the 25-year leases take effect only in May…
“Until May its capacity remains reserved for emergency use, and there is no impact for the reliability forecast for the coming summer from this announcement.”
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/transgrid-seeks-to-reduce-risk-of-sa-nsw-cable-as-returns-cut-20190829-p52lvy
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behind paywall:
27 Aug: UK Telegraph: Chaotic culture, missed payments and mass exits: The inside story of Solarplicity’s fall from grace
By Vinjeru Mkandawire
It has been a summer like no other for Solarplicity boss David Elbourne. When the green energy executive jetted off to Portugal for a golfing getaway, he left behind a trail of missed payments, furious customers and a business on the brink of collapse.
In the space of several extraordinary months, Elbourne’s Hertfordshire-based company has gone from supplying renewable energy to thousands of households, to being banned from taking on new customers by the industry regulator, Ofgem. A fortnight ago the company’s energy supply division crashed out of the market just days before losing its license to operate.
US private equity giant Apollo has branded its 28pc stake in some of Solarplicity’s assets as “worthless.”…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/27/chaotic-culture-missed-payments-mass-exits-inside-story-solarplicitys/
25 Aug: ThisIsMoneyUK: More headaches for customers as six more energy firms are predicted to go bust within months
•Many more energy firms could go bust in the next few years
•The fallout of these failures can create an admin headache for customers
•Lower energy price cap and rise in wholesale prices thought to be factors
By Laura Shannon
In the last year, 13 suppliers have failed or withdrawn from the market. The latest casualties are Solarplicity, which shut this month, and URE Energy, which had its electricity licence revoked…
Comparison service energyhelpline estimates the market will shrink further still, from about 60 suppliers down to 45 or fewer in a ‘huge consolidation’, including mergers or acquisitions.
Co-founder Mark Todd says: ‘The energy market is starting to look like a scene from Game Of Thrones with the amount of supplier blood on the floor. We are expecting a spate of suppliers to fold or exit the market over the next six months.’…
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-7390819/Six-energy-firms-predicted-bust-months.html
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When I read this post I wondered if the Sudden stratospheric warming SSW would show up on the aerological diagrams produced by the BOM from daily ballon flights
http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/observations/aerological-diagrams/
The surface chart of the SSW shows that it extends well beyond the coast of Antactica.
Today’s diagrams show normal stratospheric temperatures at 100hPa (16km, 55000ft) of about -70C over the coastal Antactica bases ar Mawson, Davis and Casey.
Maquarie, Is, Melbourne and Nowra have warmer stratosphere of about -50 which seems warmer than usual for those places.
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Does anyone commenting or reading here, live anywhere near
Barabra in the New England area of NSW ?
The BOM’s weather station there was moved in 2010-18
From a very uncommpliant site
To a new site 600 meters North.
Ken at Ken’s Kingdom needs photos of the new site
To assess it’s compliance with
BOM’s own official guidelines.
If you can please contact Ken via this link
: https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2019/08/30/the-wacky-world-of-weather-stations-no-63-barraba-nsw/#comments
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Could this be the result of the near coincidence of two planetary events: on 02 September Mars will be in conjunction with the Sun, on 04 September Mercury will be in Superior Conjunction with the Sun and Earth?
My spectral analysis of satellite lower troposphere temperature data and CO2 annual rate of change show features that appear to relate to the orbital motions of the Solar System. Even the synodic period of the Moon gives a spectral peak. Not being an astronomer, I am most interested to understand the spectra.
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