By Jo Nova
It’s like the bushfires and baking heat are already here (in your mind, if not in reality)
It’s as if we’re preparing for Pearl Harbour or something — and if you are not scared, you should be, and even if this summer isn’t that unprecedented, you will feel like it is, and if the hellfire doesn’t eventuate, there’ll be no headlines saying “Oops. We panicked for nothing!”
After 150 years of Pacific Oscillation, the Pacific has oscillated again. An El Nino has been declared, and like the last 27 El Ninos since Federation, it will probably be warmer and drier “than average” in Australia. But the Merchants of Panic are already calling it a summer of severe wildfires and droughts. There’s no flames yet, but Reuters is wheeling out the photos of burnt out wrecks. SBS found experts to badger us into making a “heat wave plan” — like seriously, as if Australians need three months to remember what summer is. No really — The Executive Director of Sweltering Cities (whatever that is), says you should buy up those extra ice cube trays now and learn the signs of heat exhaustion. Prepare your home — like what, find the air conditioner remote?
Even in France, apparently the risk of an Australian bushfire and drought that might, maybe potentially happen is now worth a headline. See how this works? Even if the world were cooling, there’s always someplace that might have a hot summer coming, and when all the world shares headlines of hellfire, people will feel like climate hell is truly here, even if the weather was just exactly what it has always been.
For perspective, here are the last 147 years of Pacific variation, just so people can appreciate how extraordinary this isn’t. This is a BOM graph, made by an agency that gets a million dollars a day from Australians to understand our climate, but somehow our billion dollar public news agencies can’t find it, and the BOM forgot to mention it in the press release.
It’s just another day in the land of droughts and flooding rains:
What matters is that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the largest short term driver of Earth’s climate, and we have no idea what makes it tick; we can’t predict it more than a few months in advance, and we have no clue at all about what it will do this time next year. (If we did, the BoM could tell our farmers useful things, like what kind of rainfall they’ll get before they put the seed in. )
Hidden in the small print on the ABC site, but not mentioned on the nightly news, is that El Nino’s don’t always create widespread drought, and that the models are sometimes wrong, and the slow development of this years event “might limit its strength”.
How to manufacture climate anxiety
SBS News really takes the cake today. The new normal is a world where you practically need a roster on the fridge to plan who does the 3pm check to see if Nana had her glass of water.
The Executive Director of Sweltering Cities, Emma Bacon, says people should have a heat wave plan.
Yawn…here we go again. I’m expecting to see Rob Sharp , the Sky Meteorologist, appear on screen wearing flame proof overalls soon. These people are simply nuts over what we used to call the weather.
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Yet Again I refer to Melbourne 1968
Get your Weather Station Number from here
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/lists_by_element/alphaAUS_122.txt
Insert station number having selected Daily Maximum Temperature with
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/index.shtml
Select 1968 & Days Above 30C
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1968&p_c=-1481760365&p_stn_num=086071
Melbourne 30 Days above 30C for Jan-Feb-Mar 1968
1968 Days above 35C
Melbourne 19 Days above 35C for Jan-Feb-Mar 1968
1968 days above 40C
Melbourne 4 Days above 40C for Jan-Feb-Mar 1968
It’s called Summer in Australia and it is no hotter today
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It is early spring- not summer, your comparison is invalid
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http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2006&p_c=-872954526&p_stn_num=66062
3 days above 30C Sep 2006
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=66214
2 days above 30C Sep 2023 so far – today will probably make 3 – seems normal hot weather to me – Try Researching Peter before commenting!
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2008&p_c=-872954526&p_stn_num=66062
3 days above 30C Sep 2008
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2009&p_c=-872954526&p_stn_num=66062
3 days above 30C Sep 2009
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2013&p_c=-872954526&p_stn_num=66062
3 days above 30C Sep 2013
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For 13 years he has been commenting without researching. He won’t even read his own links.
It’s about time you lowered your expectations.
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It’s about time you lowered your expectations.
MP one can live in Hope!
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Too many coffee’s at the same coffee shop with the same company. Hasn’t the weather been strange lately.
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If you click through on reference above and get
Your request cannot be completed
Our system has a problem and cannot complete your request.
Please go back to Climate Data Online
Click Climate Data Online above – select Temperature and enter Station Number 66062 Old Sydney Observatory or 66214 New Sydney Observatory – Select year then select Days above 30C when year data appears
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more than half you links do not work
the others do not show 4 or 5 day heatwaves in Sept
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Hence the above – OldOzzie
September 20, 2023 at 2:28 pm · Reply
If you click through on reference above and get
Your request cannot be completed
Our system has a problem and cannot complete your request.
Please go back to Climate Data Online
Click Climate Data Online above – select Temperature and enter Station Number 66062 Old Sydney Observatory or 66214 New Sydney Observatory – Select year then select Days above 30C when year data appears
21
A strong solar maximum is occurring. That is the sun for those that can only worry about CO2. This causes hot summers, earthquakes, sudden floods, volcanic eruptions, a few Cat 4-5 hurricanes at the end of the season.
Nothing to do with an El Nino. The Pacific surface water heats up and so dumb meteorologists think its an El Nino. Its not.
The summer is hotter, more water evaporates, magnetic poles wobble, tectonic plates move. Nothing to do with CO2.
Predictable but unreported by the MSM. Known and used by the BoM and every other grifter to get more tax paid funding.
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Aren’t solar cycle charts showing a rather low solar cycle, Dalton minimum is being talked about, or is it sun spots the important thing?
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The Sun’s magnetic field controls our short term weather.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2023/07/04/nasa-reports-x1-solar-flare-as-suns-activity-hits-21-year-peak/?sh=126665cc604f
Expect more southern hemisphere tectonic plate movement as we move to summer. A magnetic wobble at the south pole. Bad time to visit southern NZ or Sumatra. good time to ramp up emergency services and recovery.
The Indian ocean will get to a surface temp over 28 Degrees C. A cyclone will be in build mode. Early season Cat 1-2 ok, late season Cat 4-5 bad news.
Above we will see classic cotton wool clouds. Thunderstorms building for Sydney and Brisbane across summer.
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What about the Phillipines?
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In Sydney today it is not all that hot. I have felt the heat more on a 28 degree C day in Summer with 90% humidity.
The ABC are really XYZ and they have no idea about the Real World whatsoever.
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Everyone knows the weather is acting strangely.
‘At 3 am on Wednesday, Sydney was sitting on 22.8°C while Darwin was just 22.3°C at 3 am local time.
‘It’s not often that Sydney would be warmer than Darwin in the middle of a September night, or the middle of any night in any month, which illustrates how much hot air has been pushed into eastern NSW this week.’ (Weatherzone)
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What about hot air generated by the ABC?
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And there is no relief in sight, gorebull worming is top of the agenda.
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Had to look it up …
there is an actual organization called Sweltering Cities.
https://swelteringcities.org/about-us/
Good Gawd.
Emma Bacon …?
I am restraining myself as I am maintaining decorum on a high minded science blog.
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Ok … it is now impossible to distinguish between Climate Change rhetoric and parody.
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Honk, when hearing of the latest insanity from the Left, I now have to first establish if it’s real or parody as the Left have become a parody of themselves.
E.g. the parodies of the Left on the Babylon Bee are so close to the truth it’s frequently hard to tell the difference.
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I saw a meme the other day with a Babylon Bee item about parents doing a gender reveal party for their teenager (from 2022) and on the other half of the page there were some proud parents on Facebook showing they had done exactly that recently.
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It is worse than that. The lengths that organisatons go to in order to show how woke they are has just added a new rung that many will find just too hard to climb. In mid-2022 Sweltering Cities announced it was expanding its Board of Directors having recently increased its staff size.
To attract the “correct” potential board member types it listed its wokeness as:
“Sweltering Cities celebrates the benefits of a diverse and inclusive organisation, workplace and Board. We encourage applications from women (cis and trans), Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, sexuality and gender diverse people, people from diverse cultural backgrounds and people with a disability. We also encourage applications from people in Western Sydney.”
I can see “people in Western Sydney” becoming more valuable than wind turbines and solar panels when it comes to climate change credentials and saving the world.
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We encourage applications from anyone who hates normal white men for being better and more successful than them.
Yep, hopefully it will be hot enough to fry bacon on the asphalt..
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Don’t laugh, they probably get paid out of your tax money.
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It seems like we are being prepared for dual “catastrophes” of “climate breakdown” and the release of the “US Election Variant of covid”.
The covid lockups with removal of most remaining rights was a successful experiment, especially in the country which most fanatically follows UN and WEF decrees, which had the most extreme lockups, restrictions and compulsory “vaccinations”; Australia.
We also happen to be the country with the largest supply of “useful idiots” which dominate government, the public “service”, “academia”, trade unions, and sadly many institutions and woke corporations.
It will be a pushover to implement “climate lockups” and more covid lockups in Australia.
It will be for your own “safety” they will say.
To quote Benjamin Franklin:
I know the anti-freedom lobby say that he was not talking about what it seems, but the words stand on their own merit, regardless of original context, and Franklin did believe in freedom in any case.
It looks like the useful idiot community in Australia will get what they deserve, but likely they will neither notice or care. It will be the thinking community that will suffer the most, but we are an extreme minority.
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[Off topic]AD
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Don’t put your winter woollies away just yet (their timing, as ever, is impeccable).
Today in Tasmania, snow to 600m; VIC & NSW, snow to 1,700m; NZ next few days, snow to 800m and possibly lower as a classic snow-maker depression stalls over the South Island – perfect equinoctial weather system right on the equinox – but Nature’s like that.
The Central Steering Committee appears to have all its media PR ducks in a row, quacking about PANIC! summer is on the way… hooray! We don’t have your bushfire threat but hay fever season is going to be worse, nana might perspire, children and pets may get thirsty, the sun may shine… this has never happened before! And then it got cold and began snowing… as it often does. D’oh!
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Wildfires ?, we don’t have wildfires in Australia, we have bushfires.
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Too right!
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Clearly, the Labor (WEF) narrative is losing its penetration as evidenced by a Revalation in today’s The Australian that:-)
“Bowen is running out of time and options on power”
and
“Power struggle and a ‘shocked’ cabinet minister
In an extraordinary swipe Infrastructure Minister Catherine King has joined farmers, councils and environmentalists in attacking consultation on a major transmission project.”
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Protecting her own seat – the groundswell of pushback in her electorate is the motivator. Can’t have her cushy, seat-warming existence threatened by Blackout Bowen’s insanity……
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Might be something to do with a huge farmer erected sign on Ballarat / Daylesford road. (Mt Prospect). Drove past it the other day, but it’s been there a while already. It’s protesting the AUSNET transmission lines and in big letters it says “Catherine King is a sell out” (or something similar).
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welp, they voted for her…..
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Are you sure?
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We are told it’s going to be ‘boiling hot’ in NSW but just down the road in Hobart, there’s a pile of snow on Mt Wellington, imagine that.
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Meanwhile, electoral reality hits home in the UK, where the PM will wind back some climate policies:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551
Excellent news!
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As mentioned many times, the climate madness in the UK has been written into law. The PM cannot wind back anything, it’s illegal, the law has to be changed and only Parliament can do that.
This is electioneering, his lips moved, he lied.
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The ruling party can change the law. Bring on the whips.
If the ruling party cannot do that it’s only a soft majority.
Yawn.
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Sunak makes his speech today at 1530Z.
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Thanks again to Jo Nova for her sane warnings about their insane warnings.
I agree that everyone should be prepared for very bad weather, be it very cold or very hot, because we’d all rather have nice weather all the time.
But that’s why we have ACs and nearly every shop and monster shopping centre tries to give consumers a nice temperature in summer or winter.
But Aussies have had years of droughts and floods and sometimes even decades of both and ditto very bad fires as well.
But AGAIN will anyone tell us whether they’d rather have the rainfall from 1896 to 1948 or the rainfall since that time? AGAIN never forget that Australia is the driest continent on Earth and we should NEVER complain about too much rain.
AGAIN here’s the BOM rainfall data again from 1896 ( start of FED drought) to 2022.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=7&ave_period=6190
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Here’s some numbers that I’ll refrain from converting into an insane warning , sort of:
My verandah thermometer went from 15 C to 30 C between 9 am and noon. A doubling. Just imagine if that rate continued: 60 C by 3 pm and properly boiling by 6 pm.
The realism: max at the airport, about 20 kms away is forecast to be 30 C, and my north facing verandah is not a Stevenson screen.
It’s quite fun playing with the numbers.
Cheers
Dave B
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30 C is NOT twice as hot as 15 C. That is obvious if you convert the temperatures to degrees Fahrenheit. 15 C = 59 F whereas 30 C = 86 F and 86 is not twice 59. The reason why such comparisons do not work is that neither the Celsius nor the Fahrenheit scale starts at absolute zero. which is -273.15 degrees Celsius. To calculate the ratio of any two temperatures you have to use the Kelvin scale which does start at absolute zero.
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Thanks Roy,
I do agree with you. I just enjoyed trying to parody some of the garbage numbers that come from “official” sources and fear mongering sites.
Cheers
Dave B
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To calculate an average you have to have days higher than that figure to offset the days where it is lower. Therefore days 15-20 degrees higher than average are normal. What’s the big deal?
Another point – in the “official news release” the BOM spokesman said, as an incidental afterthought, that there is a “background of climate warming” but he had separated that from all the horror predictions. The media won’t!
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Ian, I was wondering if the “15° above average” is another false trail. Do they mean 15° above the average daily temperature (the average of lowest and highest) or above the average highest temperature for that period?
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Good point Peter.
I was assuming the simplest version of the concept. Journalists may think it through more before stating such a “fact”.
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How about using fear and panic against the government, rather than accepting it from the government?
Mr. Minister, what have you done to increase the supply of cheap and reliable electricity so that we can better protect the most vulnerable against the terrifying weather which is almost upon us?
Can you assure us that the power will always be on so that our extra fans and ice cube trays will be useful?
Who is responsible for ensuring there are no blackouts? Do you have a back-up generator? Does your office building? Why?
In the event of a blackout, can we come to your house and use your electricity?
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Double,
Go the full nuclear option – cut the power to wherever they are , and parliament house , and all government buildings until they educate themselves…. put them in an energy “black hole”.
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energy “black hole” Old Goat? Seems appropriate given they are living in an intellectual black hole.
10
This hyperventilating call from their ABCCCC radio to “be afraid” of the El Nino would be laughable if it wasn’t so sinister in it’s purpose.
Are we supposed to live in constant fear of the dominant forces that our Governments are valiantly fighting on our behalf?
I think that we peasants can handle the “El Nino”, but I’m really, really worried about the coming El Teno; we might be locked in our homes again and forced to apply huge amounts of expensive UV Radiation repellent oils before venturing out for our 25 minutes of food gathering.
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The news cycle seems to oscillate between fictional “climate breakdown”; the latest covid variant, there hasn’t been one for weeks now (and I can’t wait for the US Election Variant) or the latest fictional allegations against Trump.
We are.being exposed to endless lies and scare stories and only the thinking community, an extreme minority, have any clue what’s going on.
The non-thinking community are being reconstructed as per Orwell, 1984:
And where do windmills and the slave army of useful.idiots fit into this? Again from Orwell:
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I remember, i think, stories in the 70s, where £10 Poms arrived in Oz in the Summer, declared it was too hot, and caught the next plane home. Don’t think global warming figured …
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Nah, they hung around long enough to annoy the hell out of us with endless stories about how much better Blighty was in everything, THEN they went home…
then quietly slipped back here after they remembered why they left UK in the first place!
My uncle was a classic, went back to Newcastle-Upon-Tyne and when he arrived he was put out because his father just sat in his armchair and said “Ooh, ye been away then lad?” Then it rained all the time and was freezing cold..
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Jordies normally say Bonnie lad
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Well, I was, literally, a £10 POM (except I was Scottish) who arrived in 1966, absolutely loved it and never saw my home country again for about 15 years. And I’m still here and I’m never going back – so there!
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AGAIN here’s the OWI Data graphs for deaths from fires and burns around the world since 1990.
Australia and Spain have the lowest deaths per 100,000 of any of the wealthiest countries and yet both are hot countries.
But the good news is that the WORLD and all countries have a lower trend over the last 30 years. But countries like Canada, Sweden, UK, USA, Iceland, NZ, Germany etc all have higher death rates than Australia.
Trust me, I’ve had some idiots swear at me when I’ve tried to tell them this good news. I wonder if they have too much invested in their BS and FRAUD?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fire-death-rates?tab=chart&country=LBY~ESP~OWID_WRL~BRA~CHN~NZL~USA~AUS~CAN
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Remember the global population in 1990 was 5.3 billion and increased to 7.7 + billion by 2019. That’s another 2.4 billion people at risk from all extreme weather events etc and yet we still have a lower trend over the last 30 years.
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AGAIN Africa’s ( 53 countries) population in 1990 was 638 million and today about 1460 million.
So their population has more than doubled, yet they’ve had a lower trend in their death rates for fires and burns since 1990. And African’s life expectancy in 1990 was 52 years and 64 years today.
And yet we’re supposed to be suffering from some unprecedented Climate EMERGENCY? DUH?
Yet Africa is also the POOREST continent in the World. No doubt about it Africa has FLOURISHED over the last 30 years.
AGAIN why have we seen the greatest Human flourishing in just the last 0.1 % of our existence? Any ideas?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fire-death-rates?tab=chart&country=LBY~ESP~OWID_WRL~BRA~CHN~NZL~USA~AUS~CAN~African+Region+%28WHO%29
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Wenju Cai is a respected Australian scientist and he claims there won’t be a super El Nino this year, but the MSM is blind in one eye so we shouldn’t expect to hear anything about this.
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2023/july/el-nino-southern-oscillation
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Every year this story gets posted, the only change is that instead of November, it is now posted in September- that should tell you something about how much the climate has changed in the last 13 years (since I have been following this blog)
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Or,
“that should tell you something about how much the climate [propaganda] has changed in the last 13 years”
It’s worse than we thought.
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That’s right Panda eyes, you are a follower.
And in those 13 years your intellectual input has been Zero.
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No its a guage of how much climate reporting hysteria in the media has changed.
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Your indoctrination is complete. Go to the head of the class.
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Have to agree Fitzroy, each year the hype gets more desperate and alarmist.
Hmm. I must be missing something.
Oh yeah hype hype hype and more HYPE.
Agree that carbon emissions are increasing exponentially. With the developing world industrializing it’s going off the charts. Unfortunately it has little to do with the developed world’s fanatical quest for NET ZERO.
With carbon emissions shooting upwards and the developed world screaming to reach NET ZERO the gap between desire and reality keeps growing.
Better hype harder. That will fix things
Maybe immigration from the developing world will fix things? Hm….
/sarcasm
90
June 2002
Even your ridiculous metric to prove climate change is easily debunked.
PS Rain fall for Eyre peninsula was between 80-100% of the average for the next 12 months. Crops were 5% better than the 10 year average. Temperatures were close to the mean.
Most of the Eastern states were significantly dryer, though, and the summer did see some significant bushfires in the east.
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You mean farmers cant expect average conditions every year, and have to deal with boom and bust? I’m shocked.
I remember in the last round of drought hysteria, the SA wine industry was going to migrate to Tasmania because apocalypse or something.
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‘Every year this story gets posted, the only change is that instead of November, it is now posted in September’.
In 2022 in Sydney (OB Hill), there were only seven days over 30C with the highest being 31.9C in February. From 22nd Feb until the end of the year the temp did not reach 30C.
So it wasn’t posted last year.
In 2020 it wouldn’t have been posted until Nov/Dec.
In 2021 it wouldn’t have been posted until Dec.
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Let’s review this post at the end of summer. Jo’s predictive ability is poor, mostly because she is always contrarian to expert opinion. Meteorologists and researchers are super nervous about the upcoming fire season, and I think they have good reason to be. Lot’s of fuel combined with what is shaping up to be a very powerful and unusual El Niño, coupled with the underlying warming trend.
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Every year is a good year for a fire. Has been for a very long time. Pyromaniacs who think that they are heroes is pretty new.
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Simon, what prediction? The one where I said it will “probably be warmer and drier “than average” in Australia.”
Or the one which I’ve made 20 times before when I’ve predicted the best way to stop rampant deadly fires is to reduce the fuel load.
You are the one saying we should install windmills to stop bushfires. Hows your prediction working out?
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‘ … shaping up to be a very powerful and unusual El Niño, coupled with the underlying warming trend.’
There are a problems with that argument, Cai says it won’t be powerful or unusual and he has the data to prove it.
Don’t worry about the underlying warming trend, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga eruption has raised world temperature quite alarmingly.
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Very strange – the ‘Albedo Effect’ from every other major eruption in history has COOLED the planet….
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Have you reviewed previous doomsday predictions by the climate cultists? For example, how’s Australia’s “permanent drought” going?
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mmmm there is a lot of fuel around here, its still green and soggy from the hotter/dryer winter the meteorologists and researchers said we would have.
what are you going to review? I can guarantee we will have had some hot weather and bushfires in various places as we always do. What great insights will we derive from that?
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yes simon, it’s Australia mate!
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https://cairnsnews.org/2019/12/07/australian-bush-fires-might-have-the-same-ignition-source-as-california-fires/
The propaganda is designed to convince people (sheeple) that global warming is real in order to gain acceptance to give up their rights all the while they shape lifestyle into a single world government.
Jo has provided an astonishing library of articles that expose the propaganda.
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‘ … the climate has changed in the last 13 years …’
True, it never stops changing, but nothing humanity can’t handle.
One of the variables involved in this anomalous warm spike is blocking high pressure bringing heat from the centre.
The LA Times is good at hyping climate change.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/18/another-stupid-los-angeles-times-climate-alarmist-propaganda-claim/
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Utter garbage … like usual for you.
Link to a posting where Jo discusses predictions of bushfires last year (2022) in Spring or early Summer. Otherwise admit you just make this stuff up.
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The equivalent of 25 refrigerators worth of electricity, per household, would be required to sustain even one EV per family!
EVs are not green, cannot compete with gas cars without enormous government support, and are probably a crucial piece of the emerging high-tech control grid. The solution is simple: eliminate all government subsidies and support and let EVs compete on their own merits in a totally free market. And suddenly nuclear power become competitive and Green!
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How many kWh/100km does your fridge do and what’s its range?
EV running costs are less than 1/4 of an ICE. EVs don’t need subsidies, its a no-brainer.
Almost every new car on the market is at least a hybrid.
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At least my fridge is rather unlikely to burst into flames.
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If you are concerned about vehicle fires, stay away from petrol cars:
1529 petrol vehicle fires per 100,000 sales
25 electric vehicle fires per 100,000 sales
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vehicle-fires-whats-more-dangerous-an-ev-or-a-petrol-car
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Hybrids were double the rate of ICE. Let the EVs get a bit older. The majority are barely two years old. And a brand new ICE never sunk a car carrier.
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Manufacturers are trying to sell EVs but are people buying them?
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Hybrids do not plug in. EVs do get subsidies. The issue being highlighted is how much more electricity is needed if we swapped to EVs. Whether it’s worth it (running costs based on electricity costs 5 years ago?) for an individual or not was not being discussed. It’s the increase in demand on the grid.
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EV running costs are artificial. In the UK the fluctuating costs of electricity has resulted in EV users ‘occasionally’ paying more than ICE users.
The, obvious, trap is that when enough people fall for the EV hoax then electric charges will rise so that you will be paying exactly the same, or more, to run your pimped golf cart. Prices never go down.
Hybrids require fossil fuels and are currently targeted to be banned along with ICE vehicles. The hybrid is a bastardised vehicle that delivers the worst of solutions: an underpowered ICE for distances and an electric motor for short, local trips.
EVs are a solution to a, non existant, problem.
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EVs are much more expensive to run in the UK.
Even with oil firming up again, using the charging network is as/more expensive than fuel for the same length journey – shown in repeated articles trying out the practicality of EVs. You also require much more expensive high performance tyres with reinforced sidewalls to take the extra weight, that need replacing twice as often. And now insurers are charging double as the fire risk/repair difficulties manifest. That obliterates any other tax/servicing gains.
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The Ash Wesnesday Bushfires of 1983 occurred during a strong El Nino period
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The correlation between drought/bushfires and El Nino is not that strong. It only increases the chances a bit.
With bushfires, conditions in the Adelaide Hills were worse in 2009, but no fires were lit and nothing happened.
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Wisely spoken R.B. For fire you need fuel, conducive conditions and an ignition source. Take away arsonists, stupidity and lightning strikes and you get little fire activity. Amazing isn’t is?
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Did it also coincide with incredibly poor forestry management?
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The 2009 fires in VIC were a toxic cocktail cocktail of poor forestry management and poor power line management
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Planned burns can take a few years to organise due to green tape in Victoriastan, then as the time gets closer to the burn all landholders etc are informed on what day and time but if any of the requirements aren’t met on the day such as wind , forecast for the day , fuel moisture etc etc etc etc the burn is cancelled and the approval process restarts as well as the green tape bit . Since the last big fire in Victoriastan the process has been made slightly easier but not significantly easier.
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Sorry Yarpos, red thumb was my half asleep scrolling.
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Yesterday Sydney’s hottest day ever in September guess where, Sydney Airport !!
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What is the percentage of concrete coverage around the Sydney Airport BOM temperature monitoring station?
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I will have a wild guess and say it doesnt meet the BOMs standard for measuring stations (leaving out the exception for jet exhausts)
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Also at Gabo Island. Gabo Island’s first September 32C in over a century of records.
Just to be annoying, I commented at weatherzone that the highest September monthly mean max temperature (mmmt) on record was back in 1878 at 18.9 deg C. Compare that to the mmmt of 16.1 deg C in 2022.
Unfortunately, the BoM does not post daily records before 1910, so I cannot comment about the daily record for September before that year.
60
So much concrete on Gabo.
32
There a number of groups of people who cant wait for a big “firey” Summer in Victoria. One of these groups are the ” Parkies”. They’e the Parks and Wildlife officers who work for DEECA (Department of Energy Environment and Climate Change). They love a hot firey summer because then a great number from all around the state get employed at exorbitant pay rates to go “fight” the fires. They get fed, accommodation, idolised by the media for weeks on end, especially if the fires get into the big forests in Gippsland and the Vic high country. Because any sensible firefighter knows that once it gets into that country you don’t actually “fight” the fire. You just sit back and observe and let it burn away. Most of your time is spent driving around in shiny new emergency vehicles and you douse, backburn or make firebreaks if any fires threaten towns etc. The last couple of summers have been comparatively cool with little bushfire activity and so they’re out of pocket. Time to get the bank balance back in order.
154
While I don’t disagree with you, it is sad that there are so many dedicated people who do the hard work trying to protect others while the bloated bureaucracy have quite different priorities.
It also strikes me that there are too many groups that have a direct interest in there being damaging fires.
122
In the words of the most popular leader of the free world ever, intellectual and philosopher.
The single most important thing you can do in a heatwave is “get vaxxinated”.
Don’t know about the rest of you folks, but I am off to a Bunnings car park for my medical procedure.
110
And just in time….
Critical stories such as above which do not conform to the Official Narrative will soon be censored.
Ardern’s plans described below also coincide with the Australian Government’s proposed censorship legislation.
It also coincides with YouTube’s new policy of only allowing medical information which is in full agreement with the WHO, no alternative opinions permitted.
And if we are at war, who does Ardern think the enemy is? It is we, members of the thinking and pro-freedom community, of course!
Why am I not surprised?
131
I would expect nothing less from a closet communist. Just like her trotsky loving comrade albanese and his ‘disinformation’ bill.
70
The tooth dragon won’t go away.
10
Alarmists have a heatwave plan,
And it’s not about buying a fan,
It’s designed to cause fear,
That climate breakdown is here,
And to carbon-neutralize man.
160
Spot-on as usual Ruairi. Excellent!
70
The way the BS is piling up you would think its only 10 weeks from another COP five star flight festival or something. Executive jets around the world are getting prepared. It’s for the planet.
140
Information for visiting COP28 is here:
https://www.cop28.com/en/blue-zone-visit
Unlike other years, I couldn’t find any information for private jet parking arrangements.
I’m sure most delegates will travel by private jet, as usual, however.
90
Dorothea Mackellar Index (DMI) has moved to the positive phase and we are now again in the drought part of the cycle.
150
DMI- Love it. DM, one of our most quoted climatologists. I am surprised they haven’t cancelled her works from our schools.
90
I am glad to have Almighty God on my side . “The lord is my Shepheard I shall not want , He maketh me to lie down in green pastures, He leadeth me beside the still waters, he restoreth my soul”
82
Have to agree about the hype filled headlines.
Two things.
The big fires of 2019/20 were at the end of a 7 year period of El nino with a neutral or weak La nine in the middle, so quite different to now which is preceded by a long wet La nina. There is a lot of grass out there drying quickly.
The SOI is measured as a pressure difference between two locations. The hype is about the other conditions that the El nino is acting in ie more energy in the system, especially if that is expressed as temperature and wind speed.
61
It’s interesting that the most wide-spread bushfires in Aust were in 1974-1975 during a La Nina period. 117 million hectares burnt but mainly in western NSW and Qld, NT, SA and WA. The city folk don’t care about that much.
110
That was open grass and scrub lands in arid and semi-arid inland systems. Quite a different sort of scenario to 2019/20
Given we have just come out of a long La nina, your example is one to remember.
32
Interesting also as the period 1973/74/75 rainfall total was the wettest on record.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=0&ave_period=6190
50
inland grass and scrub does not take long to become combustable and there was a lot of it.
01
I’m going with wind energy as the most important factor. The O2 blast for the flames, and blowing embers miles ahead. Wind determines how bad things get. Summer 2018/19 there were howling northerlies, that also bought the heat from out of the centre. Sometimes there will be a southerly wind change, but I think it is the hot northerlies that do most damage. Fires, dry fuel, and medium temperatures, are handleable.
81
That horrendous bushfire season was exacerbated by strong blocking high pressure bringing hot gusty winds from the centre to south east Australia. This block was out of place for that time of year.
The Great Dividing Range was tinder dry and we had a black summer.
40
probably the biggest indicator of catastrophic bushfires is the Soil moisture index. The SMI before the bushfires in 2019 was very low.
At the present time SMI varies significantly, particularly when looking at river catchments.
So at the present, and in the eastern states, likelihood of catastrophic fires is low, but not zero
14
Good point, after a few years of moderate La Nina there is still a lot of water around.
Also a muted El Nino and positive IOD won’t be so bad, the last time they coupled was in 2015.
The outlier is of course increased water vapour in the stratosphere heating the planet, so the AGW hype should continue for a couple of years until the penny drops.
00
In the 7 day forecast for the town in Victoria where I live, for the the next four days, the BOM has a forecast for the UV index. No similar words for the last three days.
“Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]”
Is this normal for this time of year?
70
What’s even more staggering than these absurd doomsday predictions, is that anyone older than five takes them seriously.
How many failed predictions does it take before people start to question this insanity being foisted upon us? Polar bears, cyclones, permanent drought, sea level rise, ice free Himalayas, etc, etc, etc
If we play along with this madness and achieved ‘net zero’ tomorrow, what would be the change to temps or climate?
These fools are marching us off a cliff, to not solve a non problem. I just pray they answer for this attack on our living standards one day.
80
Six months ago a couple of unusual wildfires happened in Canada. The MSM claimed that they were caused by climate change, but police later admitted that some of it was intentionally lit. Justin Trudeau happily remarked that we would see more wildfires in the coming months and he was correct, but his comment sounded more like a promise than a warning.
Perhaps they are making a similar promise to Australians.
I believe we will see a lot of wildfires in the run up to the November election in the USA… because El Nino.
40
AGAIN there has been a huge reduction in death rates from all causes around the world since 1990.
Aussies are in the lowest 5 countries, but every country has seen much lower trends over the last 30 years.
Today the World has about 400 fewer deaths per 100,000 people than 1990. And yet 2.4 billion more people are at risk today.
So again where’s their dangerous CC or UN Secretary General’s global BOILING? Can anyone tell us?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/age-standardized-deaths-from-all-causes?tab=chart&country=BRN~ITA~USA~COD~DEU~AUT~CHN~EGY~AUS~African+Region+%28WHO%29~CAN~FIN~FRA~IND~JPN~NZL~NLD~SWE~CHE~TWN~GBR~OWID_WRL
50
Good post Jo. Who would have thought that the great Pacific Ocean may be a major driver of our climate (sarc). Ocean oscillations (and the UHI effect) are often neglected in the debate on ‘global warming.’ My concern is that homogenization of temperatures by the BoM (and other agencies) has destroyed those signatures within the historical temp record. Researchers beware!
120
The primary raw data has not been removed as a consequence of homogenisation or any other type of analysis, and you can study it all you want. Homogenisation is secondary/derived data.
32
John B >”My concern is that homogenization of temperatures by the BoM (and other agencies) has destroyed those signatures within the historical temp record. Researchers beware!”
Ocean Oscillations are easily extracted from HadCRUT by SSA:
Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Technique to Study the Recent Hiatus on the Global Surface Temperature Record
Diego Macias, Adolf Stips, Elisa Garcia-Gorriz (2014)
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0107222
UHI can be quantified:
Urbanization Effects on GHCN Temperature Trends, Part IV: UHI Effects on Tmax and Tmin – April 28th, 2023 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2023/04/urbanization-effects-on-ghcn-temperature-trends-part-iv-uhi-effects-on-tmax-and-tmin/
90
I should add that you can completely avoid homogenization simply by moving to reanalysis datasets that pull in raw unhomogenized station data (along with other sources) here – https://climatereanalyzer.org/
See: Daily 2m Air Temperature, and Monthly Reanalysis Timeseries
Also here at NOAA’s WRIT: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/timeseries/
70
it doesn’t mean something dodgy was done. It’s just that you put your faith in the model.
The issue isn’t that the raw data would show a pause from 1850 to now, it’s that analysed properly or with bias would look essentially the same. But only warming after 1950 could be due to fossil fuel use. We’ve had the SST of the 21st C adjusted upwards and an early warming trend in the GTA disappear. Minor things to someone who sees warming overall and thinks human induced climate change. Major to anyone who wants to distinguish between human caused and natural.
00
R B >”it doesn’t mean something dodgy was done. It’s just that you put your faith in the model”
Not sure what you’re getting at here. Reanalysis is not an act of faith. At the surface the model is constrained by surface station data i.e. real time AWS with teleconnection.
The tropospheric 3D model is real-time observation based and constrained. From your quote:
The source of the observations is GDAS:
Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/global-data-assimilation
Big advantage is that we can track absolute data in real time, including the annual seasonal cycles of each latitudinal zone. Anomalies completely obscure that signal.
>”The issue isn’t that the raw data would show a pause from 1850 to now, it’s that analysed properly or with bias would look essentially the same”
That certainly wasn’t my “issue”. Again, I have no idea what you are getting at here.
With NOAA’s WRIT (link upthread) it is easy to analyze unhomogenized reanalysis data. But except for ECMWF ERA5 the series only begin 1979.
Even so, linear trends including Southern Hemisphere and mainland Australia are essentially flat up until 2012 (contrary to homogenized data), after which there’s a distinct aberration.
00
Please note that Satellite source data starts to show up after 1979 but multiple sources get added over decades as accuracy and detail and coverage improves.
The satellite source data is often the first time we can actually attempt to measure aggregate surface temperatures over wider areas – depending on the types of measurements and angles of satellite sources, as they cannot cover the entire earth at once as it is spherical and we have mountains and valleys. This gets calibrated with varying degrees of reliability against ground sources. Sometimes this doesn’t match up too well especially with topologically diverse average region temperatures getting compared against a static ground source at a particular altitude.
Before that human habitation somewhere nearby was often a requirement for some temperature measurement, so the satellites have allowed measurement of more hostile regions of the earth. That also means more measurements of very hot or very cold locations (or very high locations or very stormy heavy seas). Source data was very localised into well populated civilised areas and geographically concentrated there.
People should be wary about aggregating satellite data along with ground station data for regions which were not measured prior as it may easily provide erroneous interpretation due to the geographic dispersion of measurements not being similar.
10
🙂
00
As a firefighter, we have been expecting this summer to be tough with bush fires, given the last 3 years of rain and subsequent growth. The fuel loads are high and grass will cure quickly in the heat. However, summer being summer, it will be hot and there will be fires, which are part of the landscape anyway. Just be sensible, prep if you are in a bush fire zone but the world isn’t going to end and the climate isn’t collapsing, its just the weather system doing its thing.
150
Fire shouldn’t be part of the landscape, if those aborigines didn’t let the eucalypt weeds get away on them.
Controversial but a theory I consider. Eucalypts are terrible things, dry out the soil and reduce humus quality with the waxy leaves. Lucky they’re good timber, some of them, and good firewood. The Aboriginies and their fire, as their only tool against a rampant vegetation, their only tool of survival, would have promoted eucalypts at some stage.
We live with that legacy. Fortunately, it is impossible to destroy nature so the new ecosystem takes hold and lives, despite the environmental destruction of the Aborigines.
80
I don’t agree there Philip, bushfires have been a part of the Australian landscape before humans arrived here, Eucalypt and Banksia’s in particular require fire to be able to germinate. Such an adaption did not occur ‘yesterday’. The arrival of humans simply increased the frequency of fires.
30
Eucalypts were here before humans and they are well adapted to the environment.
Over many thousands of years the locals used wood for fuel, so around the camps and along walking tracks anything useful was snapped up. This would have cleared the undergrowth, but there is nowhere to run when the eucalypts ‘crown’.
42
If the oceans are boiling, surely there is going to be a big blip on the CO2 graphs, as the oceans outgas, or absorb less CO2?
70
Nothing new here, I have pointed this out many times on this blog.
At the start of each season for at least a decade the BoM has sent out a press release claiming the coming season will be hotter than normal and throws in a few scary examples of what WILL happen. Then when the season turns out to be average and nothing out of the norm happened there is no explination or appology from the BoM, just another press release claiming the next season will be hotter than normal.
They also do it on a micro scale, last week the BoM were frothing at the mouth claiming that we were going to see a new hot record “Eight consecutive September days over 20 C”
however Monday only made 15 C but instead of measuring temp from midnight to midnight, they claimed they now measure a days temperature to 9:00 am the following day which coincidentally was just over 20 C. So now we did achieve a new hot record of eight days, but apparently BoM days are now 33 hours long.
110
got links because you actually fail in the first year going back.
This year: Drier October to December likely for much of Australia, with warmer days and nights nationwide.
Last year: Wetter than average October to December likely for eastern Australia, drier for parts of Western Australia and western Tasmania; warmer days likely across Tasmania, north-west Australia, northern and western coasts, cooler than average for parts of the east.
22
How? Both your examples claim it’s going to be warmer, which is what I said they do.
Thanks for reinforcing my argument!
40
Your incorrect implication was that they issue a similar press release every year. Every single place on earth, unless exactly average, will be warmer or cooler. The BOM’s releases over the period you mention, as exemplified by 2022, state which regions they think will be warmer or cooler and the likelihood. For 2022 cooler covered more of the country.
01
If you have air conditioning who cares what the temperature is like outside unless of course you have widespread blackouts. But that will never happen here with so many wind turbines and solar panels to protect us.
100
I totally agree. Energy, affordable reliable energy, is the provider of quality of life. It is a complete leftist “for the people” issue. I can’t understand why The Left doesn’t embrace it totally. They must be frauds?
70
Given up listening to the media for weather. Instead, I listen to my completely uneducated 83 year old mother who has never permanently lived in a town for one night, literally, always been on a farm.
In 2018 all farmers around here were convinced it would never rain again, influenced by Flannery’s propaganda I suspect. She said, “well I’ve been around for a while and haven’t learned much but one thing I’ve noticed is it always rains again. After a big dry you get a big wet.” We then had 4 very wet years.
130
When I was in high school in the 1950s I heard that it was considered that after a severe bushfire it would be about 7 years before another bad one would hit that area again. That was with reference to a couple of bad ones, one in the Blue Mountains and one in the Royal National Park just south of Sydney.
Has that stood the test of time?
Cheers
Dave B
20
As we use to say out west, ‘The bigger the drought, the bigger the flood.’
20
🙂
“I’ve noticed is it always rains again.”
Observation and memory are the vital ingredients.
00
“is in the news before it even happens”
as programming.
50
This summer is going to be a tough one. Here, our usually plentiful groundwater disappeared about five months ago so I’ve been preparing for a tough season. It’s happened before, it’ll happen again because the sun controls the climate. Events like stinking hot summers with drought conditions are cyclical. That’s life in our part of the world in the Northern Rivers. We accept it, we whinge a little but we get on with it. We chose to live here, we knew to expect good seasons and tough seasons. The lifestyle keeps me fit, I’m happy to live here and glad I’m not in the city or suburbs. No amount of MSM doom and gloom will fix anything. The weather happens whether you like it or not.
70
La Nina provides the fuel, El Nino provides the hot dry conditions, WEF inspired numbnuts provide the ignition sources.
100
A huge proportion of Australian bushfires are human caused or arson.
I fully expect the Klimate Kultists / Useful Idiots to light more fires this summer to “prove” that Western Civilisation causes bushfires.
40
I haven’t heard any comment on the ignition sources of the 71 active fires reported as burning today in NSW??
50
It’s called school holidays, everything spontaneously ignites during these periods. Always has, always will.
50
BBC is already anticipating a ‘good’ Australian fire season.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-66793592
30
YEs – the Australian fires make for the best and most scary news footage, primarily due to the eucalyptus fire-philic eucalyptus trees that our Koalas prefer to eat most of all. It’s like they’ve evolved over millions of years to flash burn and scorch their competition.
And I’m sure there’ll be some arsonists who delight in the excitement caused by large fires hoping to see maximum havoc on the news.
00
Not only am I fed up with the Chicken Little media feeding people fear and panic, but on many chat sites, particularly MSN, I have to put up with the AGW alarmists, who are still calling people like me, Jo, and most of the people who comment on this website, “deniers”. I try and tell them that we are sceptical about what exactly is causing global warming, but of course it goes in one ear, through their empty heads, and out the other. It’s got to the stage where, if I make a reasonable comment, the abuse just piles on. At least here we have a level headed debate about climate.
50
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
Worth a look.
10
“The Executive Director of Sweltering Cities, Emma Bacon, says people should have a heat wave plan.”
I have one, first turn the telly off then open the front door for a nice breeze.
30
One of the best speeches I’ve heard about Nuclear power and why the other parties want to help the UN and WEF etc to force Aussies to use TOXIC W & S and wreck our electricity grids.
Sen Malcolm Roberts is a very good speaker and always carries out proper research on Energy. There’s also a transcript of his speech at the link.
https://www.malcolmrobertsqld.com.au/what-do-globalists-hate-about-nuclear-power/
30
If Jo still believes in El Nino, perhaps she could point out the Decadal Oscillations.
00
OK – last time in 2019/2020 the fires missed a lot of the forests of Victoria , so I expect an arsongeddon in the Otways and perhaps the Grampians, and simultaneously in the eastern forests.
00