By Jo Nova
The Crash Test Dummy Nation wins a Gold Medal in Electricity Prices
And you thought last week was bad. While the single spike at $17,000 a megawatt hour in five states simultaneously was a record, just a week later we have the double spike bonfire — peaking at breakfast and dinner on the same day in our two largest states. That’s a high degree-of-difficulty (to pay the bill). This was not just a 5-minute bid rocket — it was 90 full minutes of blitzkreig twice in a day for both NSW and Victoria. With admirable supporting efforts in burning money in Tasmania and South Australia for breakfast, and then in Queensland, which joined the financial bonfire for dinner.
The average price for the whole 24 hour period of August 5th was eye-watering. Last week the spike flattened out to about $300 per megawatt hour across the day. But yesterday in NSW and Victoria, the average price was $2,150 across both states for 24 hours in a row.
It’s possible the AEMO will have to take over the market again in some states to put the fire out.
Welcome to renewable hell
At both peaks Victoria was burning 7.5GW of power at $17,000 a megawatt hour.
In NSW the breakfast peak was 10GW and the dinner peak was 12GW. Count the money… theoretically this is $17 million per gigawatt hour. While the retailers have some hedging to avoid the carnage on the spot market, each spike is sending a price signal that’s about $200 million dollars. We could have built a gas plant….
It would be cruel to say these price spikes correlated with wind and solar failures, but I’ll say it anyway:
ANERO.id
Paul McArdle of WattClarity points out demand was 30GW in the evening — which is moderately high, but not a record. Wind was low, clouds rolled in sapping solar power, and seven out of 44 coal plants were out of action (partly by design and partly by accident).
It was, of course, another hostile high pressure cell — 5,000 miles wide and here to becalm the entire continental wind power industry.
What happens if “Climate change” causes High Pressure Cells over Australia?
And the clouds rolled over
At 8am the grand total of wind and solar power yesterday was only 4 gigawatts. Just a few days ago, at 8am, the same equipment was providing 6.6 gigawatts. So it’s just an “unplanned” outage of 2.5 gigawatts.
From the BOM Satellite page
Thanks to WattClarity for the snapshot
Even though the biggest bonfires were in NSW and Victoria, things were bad on the whole National Grid — for the 24 hour period Queensland also averaged $1,040 per megawatt hour, South Australia: $1,600 and Tasmania $943. Days like this will change the quarterly average price.
And let’s not forget that if we’d made different choices, a good old brown coal plant could have made all this electricity for $8 a megawatt hour. But who needs money right?
Am I doing the math wrong? My current price for electricity here in the US (in a relatively expensive state) is $.202/kWh. Does that really convert to $202/mWh?
If so, dang. That 16,000/mWh is a crazy price.
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The bureaucrats in charge put an upper limit on at about $17,000 per megawatt hour. Our normal operation used to be $30/MWh then in the last ten years it has become $100+/MWh with occasional excursions to $17,000. These are meant to be short rare bursts to send a price signal that everyone notices. It’s not supposed to be the new normal rate.
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I have just reposted the following comment:
Re Saturday’s: “Wholesale Electricity prices hit $17,000 in five states in Australia –Renewable fans blame a lack of coal power”
People should understand that almost noone pays these type of prices. It is only the poor saps that have decided to go “naked” into the market and who would cut themselves off if this happened at all. Most retailers, and hence customers, are protected by “contracts for differenes” and although they may pay the pool price, they are reimbursed the difference between this and their contracted price. So why have these ridiculously prices at all? you may ask.
Well they are a signal to the market that there is a severe lack of generating capacity and that the lights going out is imminent. Prospective generators may take this to mean that it is time to invest in generating capacity. And in a free and fair maket this would be correct. The reality is the AEMO has allowed the market to be corrupted by giving in to the demands for market rule changes of many players seeking their own advantage, least of all governments. For them subsidies of all types are paid for by AEMO rather than from government budget, which is how it should work.
How long can such a corrupt system last? …..Until the lights do go out. This is where Minister Bowen is taking us and most people are oblivios to it!
It seems that noone really understands what this price represents and why almost noone pays this much, despite me raising similar comments when the occasions occur. The high prices are known by the term Value of Lost Load. It occurs when there is a shortage of supply and reserves are diminishing. It is not paid by anyone exept those stupid enough to be “naked” in the market. It is simply a crisis signal in the market to let people know that trouble is afoot. It is also supposed to signal that there are investment oppertunities, that there is money to be made. As I said earlier, retailers are reimbersed the difference between this high price, the maximum value being VoLL, and their contract for difference price. You do not hear retailers screaming that prices are too high, only the exited journalists and commentators who don’t really understand how the market works.
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Highly valuable explanation Gerard. I won’t pretend to understand the complexities.
What is the pool price that retailers are actually paying?
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Thanks for your comment. Retailers always pay the pool price. However, if they have contacts for differences with generators, and most of them do, they will be reimbursed the difference between pool price and contact price, effectively paying only the contract price. Simple enough, but most people just don’t get it. Now of course there is a catch, as Jo has pointed out. Sustained high pool prices will inevitable lead to higher contract prices and hence higher electricity retail price. So it is better to have more generating capacity in the system. But what type? Jo has pointed the failure of wind and solar to provide it. So it has to be coal, gas or nuclear.
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Spot on as its a ‘contracted market’ and the key point you make is the inevitable trend to higher ‘contracted prices’ and eventual brown and black outs. No one from the private sector will build new generators using commercial script without government guarantees. Given that government should fund the build generating assets given the ‘marketable public good’ benefits in terms of importance of electricity serving a necessary function without which a large-scale modern society could not easily exist.
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You;ll see it all at Eraring.
Already we have seen the downright perverse situation of a prospective purchaser seeking guarantees that the station would close on schedule, followed by government intervention to ensure that the closure is postponed.
Don’t tell me that the world is not mad!
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You’ll see it all at Eraring.
Already we have seen the downright perverse situation of a prospective purchaser seeking guarantees that the station would close on schedule, followed by government intervention to ensure that the closure is postponed.
Don’t tell me that the world is not mad!
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Gerard, despite the contracts and hedging, high wholesale prices will feed through into real retail adjustments. It may take months, but someone is paying those wholesale prices and they need to recoup their losses. Some $25 billion dollars traded on the NEM in FY 22-23. That’s a lot of money. It isn’t correct to say “no one pays those prices”. The people offering cheap contracts for futures can’t keep offering cheap contracts for next year if they worry that more wholesale bonfires will wipe them out.
If a spike was due to freak conditions those expectations won’t change, but if the spikes are happening more often, and are due to a real deficiency in the grid (which they are) the Quants and analysts will raise the contract prices they offer.
The last time we had wildly high wholesale spot prices (May 2022) it translated into real effects within weeks. Firstly, the small naked retailers (who offered cheaper deals) begged their own customers to leave, then went bust, leaving retail customers with fewer choices, and often shifting to higher cost plans.
Reading the quarterly AEMO reports they often talk of how brief spikes like this raise the average costs for the whole quarter. They will name the days and discuss the reasons. Futures wholesale prices respond quickly to the spot market signals. See discussions like this: https://www.leadingedgeenergy.com.au/news/electricity-market-updates-july-2022/ The 2022 price rises were bigger and sustained longer than the ones we face today, but forward contract prices got the price signal quickly.
As early as the 9th May 2022, AFR reported “Energy experts say the sharp rise in wholesale electricity prices will flow through to retail from July 1, contrary to both parties’ claims.”
Retail prices in Australia rose by roughly 5 – 20% in July 2022, and a similar amount in July 2023. The spot prices led the way.
The NEM spot market effectively stops factories working, stops or starts investments (as Jamie Dimon CEO of Alinta pointed out with negative prices at midday stopping all large solar and large generator development).
See the ACCC report “Households face higher electricity bills as wholesale price spikes flow through“
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Hello Jo. The uncontracted players in the market are opportunist and are often flushed out pretty early, taking their losses as lessons to be learnt. This leaves only contracted players and of these, everyone of them pays that full spot price which may be VoLL if reserves are short. But to say that “someone is paying those wholesale prices” ignores the fact that they are reimbursed the difference between pool price and contract strike price. So in the end nobody pays the full pool price. This is vital to understanding how the market works. Believe me, I have been at the pointy end and know from personal experiene how it works. Terminology often confuses things. Hedge prices are no more than the contacts for difference strke prices we talk of.
Now the is no denying that sustained high pool prices will eventally lead to higher contract prices. I agree with you on this. So high pool prices are not to be feared. They are merely a signal, albeit a strong signal, that the risk of lights going out is becoming more likely. Your analysis has shown why and that we need more generating capacity of a certain type rather than wind or solar.
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Gerard, terminology does confuse people, but regardless of what the deals are labeled, $25 billion dollars changed hands on the NEM, and the flow of that money depends on the spot price. That’s a lot of money in a country where our largest export industry is about $100b.
There will be different winners when the spot price is $100 to when it is $17,000. On a market where $100 is the norm, $17,000 is an earthquake. The losers in that deal will need to recover the losses, therefore forward contracts will rise, therefore retail prices will too. The NEM spot market is not just a symbolic game, or just an abstract signal.
People who don’t understand contract markets may be misled by saying “noone pays these type of prices”. $25 billion is a real price and with real money. After the “$17,000” per MWh is mathematically washed through the contracts for difference it’s still ends up being millions of very real dollars that found a new home. It’s still a bonfire.
PS: Hope you are recovering from the flu or whatever it is!
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I’ll need a better explanation than that. $17,000 is $17,000, even if it’s only for 5 minutes Tipping it into a pool does not take it away, whatever the means, hedging or whatever. If the power goes out at the call price, that is the price booked to that power when it gets to the bottom line.
If no power goes out at that price and the lights stay on, they have got away with it. But if Peter’s load was shed to enable Paul’s lights to stay on, that is a blackout. Hidden from the public view.
We must thank Jo for exposing this.
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Read 1.1.1.1.1
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Everyone pays those prices, regardless of whether they are on wholesale or retail. It’s just that for retail the price is averaged out so you don’t notice – but you’re still paying. I have switched to wholesale so that I get some kind of ability to manage my costs down. I can use wood and gas for heating, and I have a generator, so I have a chance. It will be interesting to see how I go.
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You are correct, bobby. 1000 KWhr = 1 MWHr
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Albanese had better rush to an election before the retail bills start getting delivered.
It will be hard, very hard to claim that nuclear is too expensive.
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Nah. He will just follow Leftist Politics 101, which states that everything bad is because the previous government effed it up, while everything good is due to Labor’s excellent policies.
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…and they have the plan to fix it in the future.
But the number one hit in leftist playbook is: when there’s no food on the shelves at the shop the news says it has been the greatest harvest ever.
We are actually in this now, electricty just keeps getting cheaper and the more we continue with current trajectory the cheaper it will get.
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It is like the chocolate ration in 1984:
“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday […] it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it. […] The eyeless crature at the other table swallowed it fanatically. passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grams.”
They will gaslight everyone telling them that it is cheaper until they give in, knowing all the time that the price has gone up.
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The only way out of this is to wake up the Sheeple with full or partial grid collapse.
It’s been pointed out here that the Government would never allow total grid collapse to occur as what little remaining industry we have left would be shed first, then regions.
Nevertheless, there needs to be a major grid “event” to wake people up.
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I’m not “waiting for a grid collapse” to destroy livelihoods and businesses. Speak up now. Spread the word.
People can already see the disaster in their electricity bill. They don’t need a blackout.
If and when a crisis comes, if the ground is not prepared, it will just help the Deep State. They blame “old coal”, they blame privatization, they hold an inquiry and spread their claws further and wider. They add another regulatory layer to something, deprive people of more freedom, call for more smart meters and subsidized EVs to “save the grid”.
Remember, the parasites want us to be defeatist. They want us to give up and “wait”.
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Hmmm, but the sheeple are too busy watching Social Media (or should I say, participating in it ) and other such things …. simply “too busy” about themselves … ( Me myself and mine, yes MINE myself and I are too busy to observe my surroundings ) Makes you wonder about the Media telling us the drivvel about Myself’s desires to save the planet.
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Perhaps it is time to be grateful for the domestic gas reserve that the WA government enacted a number of years ago. Though it may be time for SWIS to consider a couple more gas fueled peaking generators?
OTOH can WA adequately handle a larger number of migrants from the eastern states?
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“the Government would never allow total grid collapse” – ummm, why?
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allow?
I am reminded of
You may dance, if you can dance.
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“ummmm..Why?
More pertinent is How?
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Part of the problem is that the extremely stupid and ignorant politicians and senior public serpents who live in Canberra actually believe their own propaganda that their little fiefdom really does run on “renewables”.
Thus, they believe the whole country can do this.
The claim that Canberra runs on 100% unreliables is based solely on a devious accounting trick. If it were really running on renewables, no coal or gas power would need to be supplied into Canberra and they would have connections only to wind, solar and Big Battery plantations..
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It has to keep happening if the message is to ever get through. Those suffering the most are the least able to affect a solution. They have a vote that’s all.
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Here’s a message from Australia’s most simple simpleton, the anti-Energy Minister, Chrissy Bowen.
So, for this “cheapest” electricity, taxpayers are funding a $3.5 billion dollar rebate to themselves.
It’s a good thing they don’t teach arithmetic in “schools” any more….
That about $134 for every man, woman and child in Australia.
But only about 56% of adults are net taxpayers.
And only about 21 million of 26 million are over 18.
So, per taxpayer over 18 years old, that works out to be $296.
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Has anyone received a rebate yet?
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Nope.
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Mr. Chrissy Bowen will be the first one.
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I live in Queensland and around 3 weeks ago I received a cheque in the letter box from Ergon for $300.
The teller in the bank said she had many people deposit cheques also from Ergon.
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Yup, I have. Just got a bill, and it’s on there …. a nice $75 credit
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It was credited on our bill. Made a difference, too.
I don’t know which bill it will come back on.
Oh, yes, I do. It will be the first bill after the election, whoever wins.
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too right – if renewables are cheaper then subsidies and rebates are not needed
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Like in the UK, where first thing lefty Kier did was remove pensioner’s energy rebate.
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yes, the little neeler! and his friend robber reeves
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Yep, firstly Ed Milliband said the electricity would be £300 cheaper per household, then Starmer removed the £300 pensioners winter fuel allowance. So we are back where we started, if you believe Ed.
Otherwise it’s a lesson how to tee off 11 million pensioner voters in one fell swoop.
There are a lot of other tax rises in the pipeline which were not admitted to before the election.
Meanwhile the Net Zero juggernaut continues on it’s way, destroying the UK countryside, economy and energy supplies.
Heaven help us, we’ve got 5 years of this before the next election. The current riots all over the UK show that some people are already getting fed up with the political elite.
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Yep, firstly Ed Milliband said the renewable electricity would be £300 cheaper per household, then Starmer removed the £300 pensioners winter fuel allowance. So we are back where we started, if you believe Ed.
Otherwise it’s a lesson how to tee off 11 million pensioner voters in one fell swoop.
There are a lot of other tax rises in the pipeline which were not admitted to before the election.
Meanwhile the Net Zero juggernaut continues on it’s way, destroying the UK countryside, economy and energy supplies.
Heaven help us, we’ve got 5 years of this before the next election. The current riots all over the UK show that some people are already getting fed up with the political elite.
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Yep, firstly Ed Milliband said the renewable electricity would be £300 cheaper per household, then Starmer removed the £300 pensioners winter fuel allowance. So we are back where we started, if you believe Ed.
Otherwise it’s a lesson how to tee off 11 million pensioner voters in one fell swoop.
There are a lot of other tax rises in the pipeline which were not admitted to before the election.
Meanwhile the Net Zero juggernaut continues on it’s way, destroying the UK countryside, economy and energy supplies.
Heaven help us, we’ve got 5 years of this before the next election. The current riots all over the UK show that some people are already getting fed up with the political elite.
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It was credited on our bill. Made a difference, too.
I don’t know which bill it will come back on.
Oh, yes, I do. It will be the first bill after the election, whoever wins.
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Thanks again Jo Nova for having the guts to tell the truth, but most Aussies are clueless about the data and the wealthy loonies couldn’t care less.
Dutton should hurry up and explain to voters that we’re about to destroy up to 28,000 klms of our fragile environments for a cost of trillions of $ and zero change to our temperature or weather or climate.
Labor is on the nose and stupid Greens and Teals should harvest the same hostility soon. We can only hope Albo and B O Bowen continue on their present disastrous path until the next election.
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Very few people who can think for themselves would ever choose to buy an electric car, or destroy the grid with toxic , unreliable super expensive W & S or destroy 28 K klms of our bush for a zero return.
Are we really this dumb and never forget that we have to repeat this disastrous cycle every 15 to 20 years? So how long before we wake up and demand only safe, cheap and reliable BASE-LOAD energy for our future?
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how long? This is the question. It is inevitable but not sure when.
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I’m not sure what to expect. There are so many things wrong.
e.g. What does the recent prisoner swap between the US and Russia mean for Ukraine?
Looks like concession to me. Not by Putin.
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Wasn’t there a time, not long ago, when winter was a relatively quite time on the grid? A time when units got pulled off line for maintenance and major works were completed, all in preparation for the summer peak demand.
Now we have the transition to “renewable” misery. A small price to pay for saving the planet from other peoples imaginary demons. They will happily push on, thinking more of what hasn’t worked will magically start working, then be surprised when things break and look for scapegoats. Looking anywhere but in the mirror that is.
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And as Australia’s natural gas supply is systematically shut down*, winter heating will need to be electric rather than gas, do winter electricity demand will increase dramatically. Where’s it going to come from?
*In Victoriastan, it is illegal to connect new homes to a natural gas supply and it’s illegal to explore for gas in most places or frack.
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David they have this shortfall covered by the use of DRED , your split system aircon will either only blow ambient temp air or just a few degrees warmer or cooler than ambient temps .
Factories signed up to the scheme will close and areas will endure rolling blackouts for as long as needed .
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Victoria is in a mess, ignoring the federal government’s gas strategy, so the electorate will have to throw them out.
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But the pretend conservative Liberal faction of the Uniparty are utterly inept, invisible and only slightly less bad than Green Labor.
At the last election their “winning” strategy was to have an even more extreme climate position than the Commies plus they support a continued ban on fracking.
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Once upon a time the public service would prevent idiot politicians from causing mayhem but these days those PS are more extreme than their masters. If we are to be saved an incoming conservative government would need to remove the top tiers of the PS and replace them with outsiders.
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Democracy in Victoria isn’t looking healthy, but they should come to their senses when the gas runs out.
Looking at some recent stats on people leaving the state for somewhere better, those moving out are replaced by new immigrants.
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yarpos mentions this:
Back in July of 2017, I started my daily data collection for electrical power generation here in Australia, collecting generation totals every day, since then.
That original Series lasted 15 Months and detailed the Base Load, the minimum power consumption at 4AM for EVERY DAY of the year, since electrical power was brought on line, and will be FOREVER, and here in Australia, that absolute minimum is 18,000MW, and slowly rising every year.
What I found across those 15 Months was that there was indeed a time when those coal fired power plants closed their Units for scheduled maintenance. I had already been following coal fired power since 2008, so this Base Load Series just added to the knowledge base I already had.
Power consumption is highest in Summer and Winter, and everything about power consumption is lower in Spring and Autumn.
THOSE two Seasons are when coal fired power shuts down their Units for maintenance.
It was an easy thing to see, as I watched every day at the Aneroid site.
You could watch the sequential start up of backup plants as those coal fired Units shut down. In the early days, we had what was referred to as Rolling Reserve, and this was older coal fired plants, specifically kept in service for just such occasions, scheduled maintenance, and also unscheduled drop offs as the occasional Unit had a problem.
You could easily see those older Rolling Reserve Units scrolling up their power across a couple of hours as the Unit for maintenance rolled back to zero.
It was all done so smoothly, safe in the knowledge of the EXACT time of shut down for that maintenance, that the grid just went on and no one even knew what was happening.
Then, those old plants were shut down, and in some cases bl0wn up.
That’s when problems started. All that could be used was (expensive even back then) OCGT gas fired plants.
I mean, you couldn’t ring up an Industrial Wind Plant and tell them, ….. hey we need 500MW of power at such and such a time.
In fact it worked the opposite to that, as grid controllers rang up the OCGT to cover for ….. the wind plants, hence the current price spikes, incidentally, similar even back in 2017, just happening more often now.
But, the benign Months for scheduled maintenance were ALWAYS Spring and Autumn.
I actually detailed exactly that at a number of Posts at my home site, and this link is just one of those, and this is from October of 2017, in mid Spring. At this link, I also show a resultant price spike similar to Joanne’s above.
Man, it’s fun for me to look back at old Posts like this and see just how correct it was then, and is just as correct now. (and I have 3500 Posts now at that site, so one in isolation is hard to find, so I have to guess at a word search wording)
Tony.
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That is just amazing Tony. That is the sort of information that nobody who has any input to our power needs, from Bowen through the Department to those with the responsibility for ensuring our grid works would have any idea about. You are quite amazing.
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I thought summer used to be the time of lower demand. Then they built the skyscrapers, and sold a lot of air conditioners.
I remember one year Harvey Norman, or was it Norman Ross, flooded the winter market with cheap 10 amp heaters. That brought on a supply crisis.
That reminds me of another question. How much are EVs contributing to the $17,000? And for how long will they do it?
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What thinking person really believes that China, India and the NON OECD countries will stop building new Coal and Gas plants before 2050?
Who really thinks that the number of new coal plants will stop at 300 or more by 2040?
So why should we waste trillions of $ for nothing and destroy our grids, our environments, our economy, our military and our safety?
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As I have said before, China is building two coal plants per week.
They are already the world’s largest CO2 emitter by far with emissions more than twice the next biggest emitter the US. And China’s emissions are increasing rapidly.
And unlike short-lived disposable mostly unrecyclable wind, solar and Big Battery plantations, coal power stations will easily be economic for 50 or 60 years and are repairable and upgradeable. In 60 years, 2084, China will still have most of its existing 1100+ coal plants plus a heap more.
Remind me again why Australia wants to decommission its 24 remaining coal plants?
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There are only 15 coal fired power plants still in operation, with just 44 Units, and a total Nameplate of just under 21,000MW, and at the evening Peak last night at around 6PM, that coal fired power was delivering 17,000MW. (Wind 1040MW and both Solar zero)
Tony.
(Umm, my comment at 9.2, 11.17AM is in Moderation)
[Freed now, sorry. Not sure why it was held. – Jo]
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Not going to be much better today with large areas of NSW and Victoriastan covered in fog so no solar until it clears and obviously no wind .
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Again just to repeat the countries co2 emissions facts over the last 34 years.
The OECD countries’co2 emissions today are no higher per year than 1990, but the NON OECD emissions countries’ have now increased emissions by over 14 billion tonnes per year.
The NON OECD countries want to have a much higher standard of living by 2050 and they obviously intend to use a lot more base-load energy.
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And the WA SWIS grid continues to have wind outages almost every evening, where the wind drops to around 4% of total power during the 6:30pm 3GW peak evening time, and stays low throughout the evening, resulting in glassy reflective rivers every morning. Still only 10% of total power during this morning’s 2.8GW peak time.
The only advantage is that WA can easily ramp up more cheap gas to cover for the missing-in-action wind and solar.
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Graeme, I’m in WA also, I’m told most of our Gas generators were only designed to be “peaking” units, to be able to ramp up for a short time to cover the peak demand and compliment the Coal units if they were at maximum output. for the last couple of years AEMO has been flogging the gas units day and night and throttling back the coal units as they’re considered so dirty, all while favouring the wind and solar output when it is available.
End result is we now have a very tired Gas Generation fleet, same with the some of the coal fleet as the state owned units get throttled up and down, turned on /off which causes accelerated wear on the equipment. Muja 6 (1 of 3) Coal generator is scheduled to be taken out of the market in late October as part of the Government’s emissions commitments and will only be available for emergency use.
It’s going to be an interesting summer considering the entire Coal / Gas fleet were full throttle last Feb covering for the deficiencies in the Wind & solar ideology program.
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I hear that even though we have so much gas in the NW shelf, the pipe is only so big, and we are pumping as much gas as we can fit down that pipe in Perth when those summer peaks occur. I don’t believe we have the storage for gas here in Perth. So there are very real limits and as more solar power here vandalizes the market for reliable generators we are headed for trouble.
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Thanks Gazzaton and Jo for your comments. Reinforces what I suspected. And I note that sometimes we switch in a bit of diesel power. I thought Muja was going to be shut down, but it seems their plants are still plugging away. I’m not sure what the WA state govt is thinking, or whether they are thinking at all about this topic.
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What OZ really needs is private ownership of minerals. Sadly, the only place in the world that allows that is the US.
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We are at the beginning of the end . Stock market and power grid in crisis , major military events , our leaders with their heads up their fundamentals and the media ? “Nothing to see here ” and business as usual . Hope for the best but prepare for the worst . Things are about to breakdown and being able to fix things that are broken is going to be a survival skill , even being able to sew. Slowly , then all of a sudden .
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Is this the ultimate “stop Trump” weapon? The last resort?
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The price spikes are a function of greater variability of the price and a recent increase in the cumulative price threshold to $780/MWh. The wholesale price now has to average over $780/MWh for 7 days before tha cap of $600/MWh kicks in. The cap was often triggered after the closure of Liddell and high gas prices in 2023.
The fact that these spikes are being seen simply means the average price over the last 7 days is under $780/MWh.
The greater concern is the increase in the cumulative price threshold and the administered limit. They are underpinning the electricity price inflation. It is the cost of keeping dispatchable power plants economically viable as well as to limit their profiteering from a very wobbly grid.
The AEMO dashboard shows the price cap is inactive. All regions are still below the threshold. South Australia is closest but still quite a lot of headroom.
The price threshold shows where prices are heading near term. It is regarded as a fair figure for dispatchable power plant. The true cost of firming low cost WDGs. Still cheaper than installing batteries on the grid but getting close. Certainly more expensive than households making their own electricity.
A wholesale price of $780/MWh translates to around $1/kWh retail if the connection fee is included. Who thinks electricity prices are going down in Australia?
Once the threshold is breached, the cap of $600/MWh applies until the average drops below the threshold. Note that the cap was doubled from $300/MWh in December 2022.
As August moves by, the sun will move a bit further south and we get into balmy September when the rooftop solar panels start singing, wholesale prices regularly go negative at lunchtime and the evening peak could still hit the 5 minute cap. But breaching the threshold will require loss of dispatchable capacity for a week or more – something like a turbine or unit transformer failure. Very unlikely with our modern, well maintained coal fleet.
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The AEMO dashboard never used to mention the cumulative price threshhold. It’s become a thing since 2022. A sign of a system on the brink.
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Great highlights on the unRenewables rollout disaster Jo.
Interestingly (or not), when one points out these deficiencies of the wind /solar dream on other Social media platforms the lunatic “renewables” fanatics just shout back that we need MORE wind and Solar, and Pumped Hydro ‘cos that’s easy and cheap to build??!!
One even told me there no such thing as a “wind drought”! The worst part is all these loonies seem to be paid subscribers to all the major newspaper and litter the comments sections with outright lies on the entire subject.
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Another recent study shows that 76% of the world’s beaches are either stable or growing. This just repeats the same findings as the recent Dutch study. Again where is the dangerous CC and SLR.
Again why are we wasting trillions of $ on this silly fantasy?
https://climate-science.press/2022/05/02/more-than-75-of-the-worlds-beaches-stable-or-growing/
[“Climate-Science.press” is a pirate blog that copies material without permission. Please try to use the correct, original link when posting. https://realclimatescience.com/2022/05/more-than-75-of-the-worlds-beaches-stable-or-growing/#gsc.tab=0. This is Tony Hellers work, and he deserves the link. Thanks. – Jo]
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Neither Minister for Climate Change & Energy Chris Bowen and the rest of the Albanese Labour government have passed the crash test. As a consequence they have disqualified Labour from governing Australia for a second term.
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They may not have passed the crash test but they are all dummies!
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Poof goes the Fed/State concessions! This is the recession America had to have. Unfortunately, it will reverberate globally! The effect on our $$$ will be prompt and vicious! Needless to say, Albo and Bowen will continue to pursue their mindless solar/wind game plan to bankrupt our economy.
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Here’s another prominent, clueless Dem donkey who doesn’t know the level of co2 in our atmosphere.
Pete Buttigieg is another clueless yapper and admits he doesn’t know the “level of co2, but climate change is real and we must do something”. Duh?
See at 4 minutes 30 secs
Again why would any sane US voter bother to vote for this moron?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hLqeDedWV8
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Huh… of what relevance is it to an individual’s choice to trust scientists if they can recall the [CO2] or not?
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choice to trust selected scientists
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great irrelevant reply
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Yes, he is the U.S. Secretary of Transportation with a Navy background and not a scientist. Therefore he isn’t really qualified to be spruiking an EV revolution as he doesn’t possess the intellectual wherewithal to assess CO2 levels past and present and provide a qualified opinion that would equip an individual with the necessary information to determine which scientists they trust in relation to all matters CO2.
I don’t know about you, but if l consult an expert, l expect their recall to be an important part of the consultation. Hence their expertise…
On the other hand, if your beliefs compel you to buy into the supposed scientific consensus on climate change, keep going, good luck. Plenty of fodder out there to fuel your dream.
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Pretty simple GA
It shows how little interest they have taken in understanding the subject.
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Pete, this Climate Change; is it in the room with you now?
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Pantomime audience voices: “It’s behind you!”
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Will they have the termerity to rename Canberrs with an Aboriginal name?
The dummytron is alive and breeding in Canberra! We could put their heads on cupped stakes and sing:
I’ve got a lovely bunch of choconuts
There they are, all sitting in a row
Big ones, small ones, some with great big heads
Give them a twist a flick of the wrist
That’s what the Speaker-man said
There goes our life The idles of our strife
Solar Solar Solar a penny a pitch
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Have you watched SBS weather? Apparently, they only use these aboriginal names. (I haven’t seen only heard about it.)
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Canberra is an aboriginal name. They could, however, re-name it with another aboriginal name just for fun.
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Sydney is not though. However, yes, quite a lot of towns and places have aboriginal names, but like always, not good enough, we want more.
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Here James Meigs tells us that so called Nuclear waste is very safe and can’t escape.
But France , Japan etc are reusing this waste fuel and extracting more energy and the USA should do the same.
And OWI Data shows us that Nuclear energy is the safest base-load energy in the world.
https://www.prageru.com/video/how-dangerous-is-nuclear-waste
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BTW this video seems to be muted but the icon can be clicked on the screen.
Also a full transcript is available on the bottom right of these videos.
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It’s tragic that nuclear “waste” is buried in the ground.
In the civilian nuclear fuel cycle it contains about 97% of its original potential energy.
It should be reprocessed rather than buried.
https://world-nuclear.org/nuclear-essentials/what-is-nuclear-waste-and-what-do-we-do-with-it
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Okay kids, today we are studying science.
Now, carbon is stored in the earth, and nature is in balance. Many digs up the carbon and puts it in the air which causes an imbalance, and the co2 makes the air get hot because it absorbs energy from the sun. Bigots deny science. Don’t be a bigot.
Now, consent studies, double period.
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There was an article in The Age this week saying how renewables have made electricity cheaper. The comments section was a fun read, I forget that you should never read the comments. There were a lot saying their bills are more and a lot more saying they are cheaper. I just got emails from my provider saying my gas and power are both going up, $200 a year for power and $80 for gas. So my little tax payer handout will barely cover those increases. You know there are people out there that will say when the power gets expensive it because of the coal, the coal that has to kick in to cover the lack of wind and solar. So their response to that, we need more wind and more solar and more batteries and everything will be alright! Forgetting they need wind and solar to be available to generate this free and cheap renewable power.
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[…] From JoNova […]
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Read 1.1.1.1.1
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As instructed by my friendly electricity provider, I went their compare website and it’s resplendent with a couple of new deals….well new to me anyway. One gave a 26% discount but the rates could change at any time. The other gave a 8% discount “fixed” for a year. However, the contract could be cancelled at anytime. So we are staying where we are…paying for others solar rates.
It’s great to see the caring nature of money grabbers hitting home.
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Its a sick joke. A quick check on google maps will show which suburbs have most of the solar panels in our major cities. The poorest are subsidizing the richest.
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Albo’s gas code, affordable gas for the masses.
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/king/media-releases/new-guaranteed-supply-gas-australias-domestic-market
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[…] Basten August 2024 um 8:08 Uhr · […]
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