Good rain forecast for East Coast fire-grounds 15 – 50mm.
Probably thanks to the MJO which Joe Bastardi told us was strongly building nine days ago. The northern monsoons have finally started, and the peak MJO position for rainfall has arrived. It won’t end the drought yet, but it might put out some fires.
Rain forecast BOM Australia.
As Joe Bastardi explained, there is an extreme Madden-Julian Oscillation going on north of Australia. We’ve launched into “Phase 5” with a rocket, and “wow” — things are far out on the phase diagram. Looking at past MJO patterns the wiggles can loop, dive to the centre, swing wildly out, though I didn’t see any with such an extreme phase 5. They can resemble the flight path of a bee. Predicting what any MJO does next looks difficult, and next week it may have retracted to low normal “six”. Who can say?
Madden-Julian Oscillation map | Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
The BoM does an average forecast of what different phases of the MJO mean for Australian rainfall. I’m not sure how much it would change in an extreme MJO.
…
For those who want more information on the MJO, this recent study looked at how it affected Halls Creek rainfall in northern WA.
“ Other major drivers of rainfall at Halls Creek include El Niňo and La Niňa conditions, the Indian Ocean Dipole and regional soil moisture (Sharmila and Hendon 2019).”
No wonder predicting seasonal rain in Australia for our farmers and fire fighters is so difficult. Until we understand the solar, lunar and geothermal drivers of these ocean currents we have NFI. Perhaps the complexity is too chaotic in any case, but we are “not even wrong” at this point. Our current models treat the sun as if it were a simple ball of light, not an electro-magnetic dynamo (or two dynamos) and don’t include most solar, some lunar and — as far as I know — no geothermal or geomagnetic factors (because we haven’t even mapped out all the volcanoes and hot springs under the sea, let alone measured them, nor measured the trends and figured out what drives them).
And we wonder why they fail?
- Just another bunch of old volcanoes we didn’t know about, found off Tasmania
- Do 40,000 volcanoes matter?
- Antarctica – 91 volcanoes coincidentally found under glaciers warming “due to climate change”
- Mapping hot deep columns of molten rock in the top 3000km thick layer
- The mystery of cooling deep ocean, volcanoes, and missing heat
- What’s really warming the world — NASA has no idea (Not the Sun, Never the Sun!)
- Study finds global warming over past 400 years was due to increased Solar activity
- Solar activity was really at exceptional lows during the cold Maunder Minimum
- Can the Moon change our climate? Can tides in the atmosphere solve the mystery of ENSO?
…
..
Send it down Hughie, not you Pattoh. Dry dams could do with a big drink.
140
But now they’ll be going on about flooding rains.
200
bemused
I could handle flood fence repairs for a change
110
I live in California. Prior to last year we had several years of drought. I know this because I play golf; and because of a water shortage one of the golf courses I play transitioned from 18 holes to 9 holes. Somewhere I recall a sign hanging in a window of some government agency. The sign read: “Drought management–please send money.” When the rains came, the government flipped the sign over to display: “Flood management–please send money.”
160
These rains will be unprecedented and due to climate change, then the Locusts will come and the sea will turn to blood…………
131
Dog and cats, living together – MASS HYSTERIA!
10
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/weatherpulse/player/Weatherpulse-Rain-looms-for-eastern-Australia/6122414786001
ENJOY !!!
50
What is needed is depth of moisture in the atmosphere. I wish that the so-called experts would declare this as part of the natural phenomenoa. All thing ARE natural. Fools otherwise.
130
Exactly Glen, and it isn’t there.
20
“Looms”= “frightening, worrying”?? Be afraid always, everything is terrible and “worse than we thought”.
30
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/weatherpulse/player/Weatherpulse-Rain-looms-for-eastern-Australia/6122414786001
Enjoy ! 🙂
100
We can now look forward to Peter F. explaining that it is caused by Climate Change because it makes the weather hotter and wetter, as distinct from last week when it was making the weather hotter and drier.
300
Q&A host quickly interrupts with “I’ll take that as a comment”.
60
And why not?
Those are two different weeks and the climate doesn’t stop changing, y’know.
That Control Knob makes like a motor-mower blade at full rpm whenever you look away …
30
Pouring off Brisbane today.
Unfortunately is was 100kms East instead of 100kms West.
This has already happened twice in the last 12 months where heavy rain bands have stayed just East of the Queensland coast.
No doubt the Drongo will ascribe the rain missing Queensland to the anti-Green backlash at the last Federal election.
110
“Pouring off Brisbane today”
Let’s see what happens on Thursday.
30
10am Brisbane Wed 15/03
Brisbane light drizzle
100kms East of Cape Moreton had 280mm last night.
Cruise ship reported deluge.
20
The Tasman must have radically changeable salinity.
All because of Klimate Change … century after century after millenium etc etc
Haven’t seen any icebergs yet …
Must be due for some.
20
Don’t worry, this is just weather.
Your climate change viewing will resume shortly.
200
Qwik quiz …
The current unpredicted fire-drenching rain in Australia is caused by:
a) planet saving solar panels, windmills and the world’s biggest battery
b) thoughts and prayers
c) declared climate emergency
d) natural variation/the sun
Answer Hint: “Energy from the Sun is the ultimate driver of climate on Earth.” (The Australian Academy of Science)
161
[b], Thoughts and Prayers, thanks, Eddie.
43
b & c
-it’s obviously a combined effect.
21
Hmmm.
It could be a.
I mean, think of all the CO2 that Battery saves?
(Must be coming up to its Burn by Date RSN …)
21
FYI: the clever
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=141.86,-26.99,804/loc=119.427,-32.390
graphic shows lots of precipitable water (TCW) in the atmosphere over most of Australia at present (except for a spike up from adelaide to about Mt Isa). It indicates TCW at about 30-50 kg/m2. Hopefully this will turn into some decent rain shortly?
80
Nah — it’s gonna hit NZ before it drops any of that moisture.
(It’s really why NZ is so green: lots of mould 😀 )
30
Duh – I should have watched the Weatherzone report that AndyG55’s post mentioned 30 minutes ago before I posted – same data source!
cheers
50
Gawd. I’ll need a new excuse for not doing the washing up. Dog ate my tea towels?
To get in the mood, let’s remember the biggie…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDr-i2NxhS0&feature=emb_title
Of course, this years rain hasn’t come yet, let alone any floods. But if we are going to live in this country we are going to have to be ready for the lot, and suddenly, and never how we thought or when we thought. Which means booting globalism and its climate crusaders to the kerb.
Now get some coal going.
240
M
“Gawd. I’ll need a new excuse for not doing the washing up. Dog ate my tea towels?”
Wasn’t that mildew?
80
Cumulo-nimbi are great water-bombers!!
30
One empty tank and one about a third full maybe so bring it on , neighbor is just getting another load of water pumped in by truck as I write this and that nearly always means rain the next day or two afterwards .
Why doesn’t BOM mention all the different cycles that affect our weather instead of doing a Fitz and blaming climate change .
160
rr
“Why doesn’t BOM mention all the different cycles that affect our weather instead of doing a Fitz and blaming climate change .”
It is easier to keep track of a one-string plait?
150
Because they have an agenda. Duh! )
130
You mean having fits…
oh! … same thing !
60
Yer gotta keep it simple for the pols.
Remember, by definition half of the population has below average intelligence.
The BoM might be skewed to the high side, but the pollies aren’t.
And, in any case, when yer get it wrong as often as the BoM does yer gotta have an excuse. Especially at Senate Estimates.
120
Half?
Really?
Are you sure?
Then why is that half so b****y large?
and that’s without counting the Space Cadet Company — they’re lackwits all on their own.
50
Bruce Richardson was just on Chris Smith show/Sky News. said the same things, albeit via a phone connection that was virtually useless:
14 Jan: AFR: Angry fire fighters demand fuel reduction burns
by John Kehoe
Veteran NSW fire captain Bruce Richardson is demanding volunteers like him be heard at a national fire inquiry, blasting “crazy” bureaucratic red tape stopping hazard reduction burns and national parks for locking up fire trails
In evidence of a split between some volunteers on the fire front and the NSW Rural Fire Service headquarters, Mr Richardson said the RFS, National Parks and Wildlife Service and governments must “get their act together” on fuel reduction before bushfire season.
Mr Richardson, a cattle farmer, has been fighting fires for 76 days straight at Capertee Valley, west of the Blue Mountains, with the volunteer crew from his home brigade of Glen Alice.
An RFS volunteer member of 49 years, Mr Richardson said he had witnessed only one section of the national park near his home town have a hazard reduction burn in the past six to eight years.
“I’m 61 and this is my last chance to bring about change across Australia on land management and how we get some respect back for local knowledge from the hierarchy,” he said in an interview.
“It disgusts me that people in offices think they can make decisions that affect people on the fire front and have the local experience.”
“If the weather is changing in our life, climate change or whatever, they need to get serious about land management and fuel loads.”
“It’s really simple. If there is no or little fuel, then there is very little fire.”…
***”Get rid of the dates they need to be done.
“If it’s raining the date you’re planning to do it, you can’t do the hazard reduction and you have to go back in the line through the whole process to get it approved again.”…
Mr Richardson criticised authorities at national parks for locking gates across fire trails, preventing access for fire fighter trucks…
rehabilitating them,” he said.
“Leave them open.”…
“These fire breaks and trails were a crucial part of successful, tactical back-burning exercises which saved property, towns and potentially lives.”…
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/angry-fire-fighters-demand-fuel-reduction-burns-20200110-p53qga
210
Jo this new MJO ( ? ) will need quite a bit of explaining.
Nothing I’ve seen so far does the trick.
The IOD has collapsed and then the monsoon moved South
So we’ve got the Wet season happening in the North
And big deep low cycling down the East coast
Bringing rain !
All good !
61
Bill you said a few days back that 24hr falls of 500 mm were occurring. That did not occur. Highest rains were around 120 mm mark over fairly limited areas. Rainfall so far has been dismal.
20
Maybe my car will turn white again !!!
40
Predicting rain during ‘the wet’ and that was delayed this season.
And will it be enough?
Maybe that great gambler AndyG55 might give us some odds, mind you he has 100% record so be careful with your money, just ask Mat
124
‘And will it be enough?’
Should put out the fires.
The wet season may have come late because of the positive IOD, which as you know is now neutral.
150
Yep, somewhat delayed , but looks like Indian ocean oscillation which caused the cool water around Australia has switched.
ENSO is still in slight El Nino mode, so tropical oceans are still a bit warm.
However, possibly a La Nina by the end of the year.
AMO starting to trend downwards.
We can look forward to a load of utter desperation from the AGW scammers over the next several months. 😉
150
And it shall be observed with great delight as they turn themselves inside trying to defeat common sense and actual science……
If Stuff Up put its money to funding more nurses we’d have a healthier community…I doubt the comrades care….
70
Imagine the hysteria and straw clutching if we end up with a cooler than average 2020 😀
20
There’s actually not much rain forecast to fall over the worst of the fire grounds. It’ll help, but it’ll be light to moderate.
30
Poor little peter
STILL stinging after many years of not being able to produce one tiny skerrick of empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2
So sad, and so PETTY !!
Mat, just like you, is an UTTER FAILURE at producing any evidence of CO2 warming.
Poor little mat.
Why is it that you pair continually have to advertise your utter and complete FAILURE.
130
WEATHER is always a gamble.
Climate variability is always a gamble.
What isn’t a gamble, is that you will ever be able to produce any empirical evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2.
Waiting waiting ! 😉
100
Patricia, according to this web site regarding the amazing New York “high” temps in January 2020…..which might be be CO2 driven ( its weather…but , meh…. )
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/10007/december-weather/349727?year=2019
Yep…got to 20C on Jan 12.
max 14C in December
max 22C in November.
max 34C in October
max 34C in September
max 33C in August
However……in 1950 & 2007 according to this link :
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycjan.pdf
New York got to a sweltering 22C….quick pass the beer!!
60
uh, you mean it was delayed this cliamte.
Didn’t you get the memo?
All extraordinary weather events are now co2 related.
A delay in ‘the wet’ is an extraordinary event, therefore climate change.
Or rather, as I should say, after you so perceptively pointed it out, climate conjecture.
80
I took note of BOM’s forecast issued at the start of
Dec.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20191205-outlook.shtml
I think there is a tendency to predict more of the same, and harder to pick a change.
I had the thought when that forecast came out, and all the talk was about drought, I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into a wet Jan to March in the East.
We shall see.
110
posted this one, behind paywall, on Jo’s previous thread, but didn’t have this excerpt at the time. just heard Peta Credlin with Jane Marwick discussing this 50% target and Marwick saying it’s hard to distinguish the Govt from Labor.
so much for the election:
Renewables key to carbon cuts as 100 technologies in frame
The Australian – 13 Jan 2019
***As the government banks on renewable energy in the National Electricity Market exceeding 50 per cent by 2030, compared with about 23 per cent under the 2020 Renewable Energy Target, Mr Taylor said there was “enormous potential in established and emerging technologies”…
80
14 Jan: AFR: Exclusive: States resist bushfire royal commission, oppose expansion of powers
by John Kehoe
Tensions are emerging between Canberra and the states over a planned national inquiry’s degree of emphasis on climate change and potential scrutiny of state government management of fuel loads and hazard reduction burns.
As Victoria trumped the federal government to initiate an inquiry into the state’s fires, Mr Morrison said a federal commission would need to face the reality that “longer, hotter, drier” summers meant practical climate resilience and adaptation needed “even greater focus”.
“People have said it’s not just about emissions reduction, it’s about hazard reduction. That’s true,” he said on Tuesday.
“That is where can you build. That is how you manage native vegetation. That is listening to Indigenous Australians about their traditional [burning] practices.”
Those issues are overwhelmingly the responsibility of states, some of which failed to achieve their hazard reduction burning targets in recent years…
Bernard Teague, the former supreme court judge who ran the Black Saturday royal commission, this week told The Australian Financial Review (LINK) it was essential that climate change impact be part of an inquiry into the 2019-20 bushfires and he warned against any move to restrict its terms of reference…
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s office did not respond to requests to comment on her support for a federal royal commission or expansion of commonwealth emergency powers…READ ALL
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/states-resist-bushfire-royal-commission-oppose-expansion-of-powers-20200114-p53r9l
9 Jan: 7News: Hazard reduction failure not cause of devastating fires according to experts
Emily Olle; With AAP
In Queensland, the LNP opposition claimed the government left communities vulnerable to bushfires by completing only half of the hazard reduction burns planned between 2016 and 2019…
https://7news.com.au/news/bushfires/fire-experts-rubbish-claims-that-hazard-reduction-failure-is-to-blame-for-crisis-c-639568
70
Good…let the mongrels who created this mess feel the full weight of legal and community pressure to own it and fix it.
We could also suggest they be forced to do 2 years of hard physical labor clearing fire breaks …..by hand….and have to fix fences and bury dead livestock and deal with angry farmers and just normal hard working people who lost everything……
90
The Big Fella Jack Lang
Was premier of NSW in the 1930’s
He decided to do something or other
That appalled the Commonwealth government
So the PM pressed the NSW governor to dismiss him.
Ummmmmm ?
An interesting precedent for Andrews in Vic.
For Palachook in Qld
And the dopey woman who pretends to run NSW.
60
Some say Lang had no ideas about combating the Depression, so he reneged on the Bond Payments,
thereby ensuring he’d get the Sack and go down in history as a working man’s hero,
rather than the bloodsucking Real Estate Agent he was before Parliamentary life.
Some say the Lang Myth was so well received by the public,that 43 years later Whitlam cut out the middle man,
and prevailed on his old mate John Kerr to elevate him to Labor Hero status,
after he ran out of ideas in 1975.
00
Feel guilty my fellow Australians, if we’d just shipped more money to the UN and paid those bankers a few billion$ in voluntary carbon credits, we could have bought some decent rain for delivery a few months back when we needed it.
shame
on
you
!!
you all stole my childhood
/grimace face/
220
Can I put in a claim for what that lack of rain has done to my retirement too?
40
and don’t forget the “How Dare You!™’s
They’re important: they show you Care.
20
The Great Gold Coast Cyclone – February 1954
“It was an unnamed cyclone that hit Queensland in 1954, but the scale of damage and loss of life earned it the title ‘the Great Gold Coast Cyclone’.
The tropical cyclone crossed the south-east Queensland coast at Coolangatta about 10pm on Saturday, February 20, 1954.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/2014-02-18/unnamed-great-gold-coast-cyclone-february-1954/5266720
Oh, that was back when safe CO2 levels cooled the earth …
NASA: “The fact that many of the older climate models we reviewed accurately projected subsequent global temperatures is particularly impressive given the limited observational evidence of warming that scientists had in the 1970s, when Earth had been cooling for a few decades,” he (study co-author Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York) said.
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/
40
climate science predictions are not falsifiable [that’s why they call them ‘projections’]
therefore ‘climate science’ is mere conjecture, not science (aka ‘climate conjecture’)
So let me be the first to welcome you to the skeptics club, Peter.
Hopefully your pals over a the ABC won’t be too upset you belled the cat.
140
12 Jan: ABC: Quiet fire season in north Queensland so far, but hazard reduction burn windows narrowing, firies say
ABC North Qld By Chloe Chomicki
Gordon Yorke, bushfire safety officer for RFS Queensland’s Northern Region — which covers Ingham to the Gulf of Carpentaria, the length of the Queensland-Northern Territory border to Birdsville, and to Bowen in the south — said extensive hazard reduction burns in 2019 had helped.
“We did have a number of bushfires but they were easily managed because of the work we had done in the lead up to the bushfire season,” Mr Yorke said.
“I can’t say we are out of the woods yet for the whole region, especially in the west where there are still fuel loads…
Figures released this week revealed annual shortfalls in planned hazard reduction burns in Queensland since 2016.
Of the 168 burns planned for the state last year, 117 were completed.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) commissioner Greg Leach rejected claims authorities had not done enough to reduce the bushfire fuel load.
He said “thousands of burns” had been conducted to reduce bushfire hazards, but that the window for hazard reduction was narrowing…
‘No doubt’ about the cause
Noel Preece, an environmental consultant and adjunct associate professor at James Cook University, said research has shown the fire season in northern Australia has extended and that global warming was the catalyst.
“From all the evidence it seems that the fire season has extended by quite some weeks, or months,” he said.
“Now the onset of monsoonal rains has been delayed by anywhere from a month to two months, so that does extend the fire season quite a bit.
“It’s getting harder for fire authorities to pick the window where they can actually burn safely during the cooler seasons.
“These fires are being driven by our warming planet and there is no doubt about that.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-12/qld-northern-region-fire-season-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/11857184
20
no doubt leading ABC News hourly!
13 Jan: ProPakistani: Karachi to Witness Its Coldest Day in 100-Year History During the Next Week
by Raza Rizvi
With the chilly weather setting new records, the mercury is expected to drop as low as 3 degrees Celsius in the port city, leaving the citizens to shiver with cold. This will be Karachi’s lowest temperature in its over 70 years of recorded history.
The lowest recorded temperature in Karachi was 3.3 degrees Celsius, on 11 February 1950.
14 Jan: NewsweekPakistan: Mounting Death Toll
Extreme weather-related casualties rise across Pakistan, as country grapples with cold wave
The total number of people killed as a result of extreme weather conditions crossed 90 on Tuesday, as large parts of Pakistan continue to suffer from a crippling cold wave that has caused roof collapses, avalanches and heavy rains…
earlier:
14 Jan: Geo-TV: 71 dead as severe cold grips Pakistan
According to a statement by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) at least 55 people have been killed in Azad Kashmir due to weather related deaths.
Furthermore, the NDMA said 19 people have died in an avalanche while 10 others were still missing…
Highways blocked
Hundreds of passengers, including women and infants, were stuck on the roads in harsh weather on Monday night as a massive snowstorm wreaked havoc in different parts of Balochistan…
Emergency had been declared in seven districts of Balochistan, which were badly affected due to heavy rain and snowfall…
According to The News, 23-inch snowfall was recorded in parts of Chitral district including Lowari Tunnel.
***Meanwhile, heavy snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan have broken the 50-year record. An emergency has been declared in Hunza and Nagar after continued rain and snowfall for the last 36 hours paralysed life in the northern region…
The snowfall has also greatly affected the electricity distribution system in Gilgit Baltistan coupling the hardship of locals…
https://www.geo.tv/latest/267237-41-killed-as-cold-weather-wreaks-havoc-across-pakistan-gb
it’s a “lifestyle” thing at Yahoo:
13 Jan: Yahoo Lifestyle: Deadly snow storm hits Afghanistan, Pakistan
by Tori Floyd
According to Met Office, cold and dry weather has forecast for most parts of province including Quetta city for next 24 hours. Minimum temperature was recorded minus -4 in Quetta and minus -5 Centigrade in Kalat. The heavy snowfall was reported to break records of two decades in Quetta by official of Met office. Snowfall was received in respective areas including Kalat, 28 inches, Quetta, 23 inches and 22 inches in Zhob…
The heavy snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) has broken the 50 years record of snowfall in the region as in Hunza and Nagar an emergency has been declared after continued rain and snowfall for last 36 hours. All government functionaries have been put on alert as areas of Gilgit-Baltistan were in grip of severe cold owing to continued rains and snowfall. In upper areas one foot snowfall was recorded while the low-lying areas have received 10 inches snowfall…
The chilly conditions have hit alarming level in the area due to roads closure and extreme cold and people have little access to medical facilities…
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/afghanistan-pakistan-snow-215243371.html
PICS: 14 Jan: Tribune Pakistan: Severe weather conditions continue to prevail across country
QUETTA / PESHAWAR / MUZAFFARABAD: At least 41 people have died across Pakistan as the country remains in the icy grip of a freezing cold snap with Balochistan and Azad Kashmir being the worst hit regions where heavy snow plummeted temperatures, clogged roads, snarled travel and brought life to a standstill.
Severe weather conditions continue to prevail across country…
Tons of snow was dumped on Khojak Top – the mountainous pass connecting Qila Abdullah with Chaman – snarling travel…
Paramilitary Frontier Corps has been called out to help police clear the clogged roadways…
Chief Minister Jam Kamal told the media that the situation is not normal and a high alert has been sent to local officials and rescue teams in their respective regions where up to four feet of snowfall has been reported so far…
As if it wasn’t enough, water and power supplies as well as communications system – including internet service – also gave in to the inclement weather.
The heaviest snowfall – two feet – was recorded by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) in Ziarat, while Quetta and Zhob each received more than a foot of snow…
For tourists, the snow has turned Quetta into a white fairytale land mesmerising to behold. They are flocking to the city with their families to enjoy snowfall…
The mountainous region of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) is also wrapped in a blanket of winter snow – and continues to receive more…
In another incident, a huge mass of snow fell on four schoolgirls when they were walking to their school in Lawat village of Neelum Valley. Three of them were rescued with injuries, but the fourth was not lucky enough…
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan are also in the grip of cold snap…
G-B has been receiving record-breaking snow for the last 72 hours. The snow has paralysed life in the region, with residents in northern valleys restricted to their homes. Authorities say the ongoing snowfall is the heaviest since April 1996. Since the region is cut off from the rest of the country, local hospitals are facing shortage of medicines…
The remote valleys of G-B are facing food shortages as their access roads are buried in three to four feet of snow…
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2136533/1-30-die-nationwide-cold-snap-bites/
14 Jan: TheNewsPakistan: Levies officials said that more than 500 passengers were stranded in Kan Mehtarzai area of Killa Saifullah district, where temperatures dipped to as low as -14°C while heavy snowfall and strong winds almost buried cars on the main National Highway…
Meanwhile, heavy snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan have broken the 50-year record. An emergency has been declared in Hunza and Nagar after continued rain and snowfall for the last 36 hours paralysed life in the northern region…
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/598438-71-killed-as-freezing-temperature-grips-the-country
9 Jan: KashmiriObserver: Kashmir Valley Reels Under Cold Wave
Drass was the coldest place in the region after the mercury dipped about 17 degree from Wednesday and settled at minus 27.4 degree, followed by Leh, where the night temperature settled at minus 11.6 degree…
The night temperature at world famous ski resort of Gulmarg, where ski slopes are covered under several feet of snow, dipped about 6 degree from Wednesday and settled minus 13.6 degree, which is several degree below normal…
The mercury at would famous health resort of Pahalgam, about 100 km from here in south Kashmir, dipped about 11 degrees from Wednesday and settled at minus 13.7 degree, making it the coldest place in the valley…
12 Jan: WIO News: Parts of Saudi Arabia covered in snow as temperature drops below freezing point
30
Afghanistan is worse than Pakistan, in Pakistan it’s mostly in the north and the NW frontier, but its spill over from SW China and a frigid winter in Afghanistan.
10
eyeball the maps
here:
https://volunteerfirefighters.org.au/bush-fire-control-australia-1961
and here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/fire-weather-centre/bushfire-weather/index.shtml
virtually identical.
00
uh, did it again, this was reply to #22 as regards “fire season in northern Australia has extended”.
10
As Jennifer Marohasy points out, Australian rain has been generally increasing since the year 1900; the very dry 2019 was an anomaly.
https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/01/after-the-tragic-wildfires-history-is-rewritten-or-forgotten/
70
What is the official colour is Australian rain? Is it green, or yellow? Curious people would like to know.
And yes, Rereke is back. Weep you sinners!
70
Ah … my guess would be orange/red?
Saw your post a couple of days ago; Rereke. Welcome back.
How was the holiday? 😀
30
🙂
KK
10
Yippee! 🙂
20
Bloody elle here we go…. 🙂
10
diabolical indeed…read all:
14 Jan: AFR: The diabolical task of clean energy transition
The task of managing the rapidly transforming power grid is only getting harder as the bushfires that have swept across the south-east have made clear.
by Elouise Fowler and Angela Macdonald-Smith
The catastrophic fires ripping through Australia have not only pitched the federal government into a state of high alert about climate action, they’ve created new challenges for managing the electricity grid – a major source of carbon emissions itself…
The bushfires took out two substations in the Snowy Mountains, triggering the temporary loss of the NSW-Victoria high-voltage interconnector in January. Spot prices spiked to extreme levels of $14,700 a megawatt-hour, or about 200 times average levels, forcing the shutdown of part of the energy-guzzling Tomago aluminium smelter near Newcastle. The market operator had to call on emergency “demand response” capacity to prevent forced blackouts in NSW.
Less than three days later, NSW’s main interconnector to Queensland was cut after bushfire debris settled on transformers. Smoke and dust reduced solar generation, and lightning strikes threatened transmission lines. Extreme temperatures made output from coal power plants more unpredictable.
The Australian Energy Market Operator fended off as much of the immediate danger as it could but at the same time chief executive Audrey Zibelman turned her gaze to the longer term implications.
In short, more intense and frequent bushfires, and a longer fire season, are making the already difficult task of transforming the grid to handle a fast-changing energy mix – more variable renewables in far flung places, less generation from centralised coal plants – even tougher…
The threat of natural disasters supercharged by climate change adds another dynamic to the existing challenge of integrating rapidly growing renewables into the grid…
The clean energy transition will “happen almost in spite of governments, rather than because of governments”, says Tony Wood, head of the Grattan Institute’s energy program…
The electricity supply mix is already radically changing as wind and solar energy displace coal as the cheapest new power source, ageing coal generators become less reliable, and generation decentralises with more rooftop solar, storage and demand response. Demand response involves paying customers to dial down their usage to prevent supply squeezes and blackouts and is increasingly playing a role in balancing the grid.
Inflexible baseload generators are struggling to live with more wind and solar power, which generate a surplus on low-demand, sunny days and can drive wholesale power prices below zero. Gas power is struggling to claim its place as a transition fuel to support renewables thanks to high east coast prices and chronically uncertain long-term energy and climate policy.
Over the decade to 2030, AEMO assumes about 20 per cent of the coal-fired generating fleet will close down…
To replace retiring coal plants, AEMO says in its draft 2020 Integrated Systems Plan that another 10 gigawatts (GW) of new grid-scale renewables will be needed by 2030 beyond what is already committed. Grid-scale renewables involve large wind, solar and hydro plants.
By 2040, more than 30GW of new grid-scale renewables will be needed in all but the slowest change scenario, according to AEMO’s blueprint for the future grid, released last month.
“Essentially the amount of [coal] generation retiring in the next decade [to 2030] is enough to power 6.5 million homes in Australia,” says Zibelman.
“[The] lowest cost way of replacing these resources is moving away from thermal [coal] plants and adding in renewables like solar, wind and hydro.”
There are bolder predictions. Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects 7GW of installed coal capacity to close by 2030, reducing coal as a share of total generation and storage capacity to 14.2 per cent by 2030, from 32 per cent in 2019. With a 65 per cent surge in rooftop and large scale wind and solar, along with an uptick in batteries, hydro and pumped hydro, these sources could provide 74 per cent of our energy needs by 2030.
“To date we think that there’s about 10GW of installed solar sitting behind the meters of customers,” Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Leonard Quong says.
“By 2030. we think we can reach around 38GW of installed capacity, an enormous amount of generation that will reshape how the other assets connect to the market, respond and behave.”…
Economist Ross Garnaut is even more bullish than BloombergNEF in his new book Super-Power, where he predicts over the next decade Australia could set a path to 100 per cent renewable electricity, a highly reliable grid and significantly cheaper wholesale prices than today.
Still, on the current path of change, AEMO’s base-case scenario is for coal and gas to still generate around 51 per cent of electricity by 2030, down from 70 per cent today.
Yet across every scenario, the CSIRO predicted in its Australian National Outlook 2019 that the electricity sector will transition to nearly 100 per cent renewables by 2050, driven by market forces and declining generation and storage costs…
Chief executive of the Clean Energy Council Kane Thornton worries if we don’t address the grid issues, then the investment in the new generation “just isn’t going to happen”…
But not everyone agrees, with some coal power advocates arguing for more large, centralised power plants built close to demand centres. They say a decentralised grid depending more on long interconnectors is less reliable than large local plants that use only shorter transmission lines. New transmission investment also feeds through to higher prices for consumers…
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/grid-2030-out-with-the-coal-in-with-the-new-20191219-p53lew
40
Who? hired this woman?
Reading her glib renewables cacophony is insulting to businesses, residents, national industry, national security.
Listening to that verbal dia horroeah makes me think that maybe she was pushed from New York and given the Australian network to play with as compensation.
Who hired her?
Did she come over on the same plane as the other lady running one of our universities?
Or did they come over on the same catamaran that Greta used.
Jobs for the boys?
Can we afford this.?
KK
50
No, we cannot.
I could’t bring myself to read all the **…it is so depressing to see all the l1es about coal-fired power. If they were really concerned about so- called mmcc and its effect on the grid, why not small nuclear power stations; it underlines the hypocrisy of the warmists that they won’t encourage them.
40
first note this at Carbon Brief:
[Note: Scientists have informed Carbon Brief that there are some methodological issues with the study and that the results should be taken with caution.]
—
I know nothing about their methodology, but I certainly was sceptical when I first read this today. it’s now all over the FakeNewsMSM without being questioned. sadly, including at Breitbart, which has conservative UPI news agency piece:
13 Jan: Breitbart: UPI: Rising temps could cause as many as 2,100 fatal injuries per year
13 Jan: New Scientist: Climate change-related injuries will kill thousands in the US
By Adam Vaughan
The US is likely to see more than 2000 extra deaths a year from car accidents, suicide, drowning and other fatal injuries because of climate change, even if the world manages to hold temperature rises to the Paris climate deal’s target of 2°C…
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2229627-climate-change-related-injuries-will-kill-thousands-in-the-us/
14 Jan: CNN: Warmer temperatures linked to increase in US injury deaths, study says
By Shelby Lin Erdman
“Our work highlights how deaths from injuries including assaults, suicides, transport and drowning deaths currently rise with warm temperature, and could also worsen by rising temperatures resulting from climate change, unless countered by social and health system infrastructure that mitigate these impacts,” the study’s lead author, Robbie Parks from Columbia University’s Earth Institute, said in a statement…
14 Jan: Daily Mail: Climate change could kill thousands of Americans each year with a rise in global temperatures of just 3 degrees ‘triggering a surge in deaths by drowning, assault and suicide’
14 Jan: Guardian: Climate crisis likely to increase violent deaths of young people – report
Rising temperatures will mean more deaths from crashes, assaults and suicide, says study
by Damian Carrington
***The analysis did show a small reduction in the number of deaths related to falls among elderly people, probably because there is less ice in winter…
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/13/climate-crisis-likely-to-increase-violent-deaths-of-young-people-report
at least Newsweek included a link to the commentary:
13 Jan: Newsweek: Climate Change Leading to Warming of Just 1.5C Could Kill 1,600 More Americans Every Year
By Kashmira Gander
In a commentary on the paper also published in the journal Nature Medicine (LINK), a pair of scientists not involved in the study wrote that it is important to note that other variables of weather which are linked to injuries like rain, humidity, sunshine, and wind “may act in their own right while also interacting with temperature, although not necessarily in consistent or predictable fashions.”
More research is needed to see which locations and populations would be most affected, pointing to previous research identifying people who are poor or African-American, living in coastal and low-lying areas, or work outdoors are more vulnerable to the health effects linked to climate change…
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-leading-warming-just-15c-could-kill-1600-more-americans-every-year-1481840
20
13 Jan: SMH: Australia needs to punch above its weight on carbon emissions
By Greg Combet (not disclosed: chairman of Industry Super Australia)
(Greg Combet was a Federal Minister in the Gillard and Rudd Governments)
When I had the privilege of serving as Australia’s minister for climate change, I had access to the leading scientists in Australia and internationally, the evidence and the analysis. That is what motivated me to legislate a comprehensive set of greenhouse gas emissions-reduction policies, including a carbon price. My objective was to respond to the climate science with policies that were environmentally effective, economically efficient and socially fair…
I rejected the argument that whatever Australia does is meaningless because we emit less than 2 per cent of global emissions. This argument is typically advanced by science-deniers, conspiracy theorists, or those who think it’s appropriate that we bludge off the emissions reduction efforts of other countries…
By stating all of this, some will say I am engaging in partisan politics. I say that’s rubbish…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-needs-to-punch-above-its-weight-on-carbon-emissions-20200113-p53r4j.html
VIDEO 7m: 14 Jan: SkyNewsAustralia: Chinese emissions to grow at ‘five times Australia’s’
Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell says Chinese emissions are estimated to grow “one billion tonnes” or “five times our electricity emissions” per year “just based on their natural growth”.
Mr Clennell said Prime Minister Scott Morrison was being “overly optimistic” when he suggested China produced the same emissions in nine days as Australia did in a year.
“It’d be more like five or six days,” he said.
Mr Clennell said China was responsible for 30 per cent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions while Australia was responsible for just 1.2 per cent.
“The Prime Minister’s point has validity and is kind of scary, I guess, in saying there’s not much he can do,” he said.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6122319875001
30
Australian govt builds NO COAL PLANTS – scorn and derision for years. but, as with China, this “COULD THREATEN” Merkel’s legacy! what a joke:
13 Jan: Bloomberg: New German Coal Plant ***Could Threaten Merkel’s Final Climate Push
By William Wilkes and Brian Parkin
One of Germany’s biggest utilities plans to open a new coal plant even though the nation is lagging behind countries from U.K. to Spain in phasing out the fuel.
Protesters are already preparing to disrupt the opening of Uniper SE’s Datteln-4 plant in June and could turn the utility into the latest flash point in Germany’s increasingly fractious debate about the fossil fuel that still generates about a third of the country’s electricity. The conflict ***could threaten Chancellor Angela Merkel’s climate legacy as German emission targets lag following a decade of record renewable energy investments…
The 1.5-billion euro ($1.7 billion) Datteln-4 plant, outside Dortmund in western Germany’s industrial heartland, is already nine years late and over budget because of defects that delayed its connection to the grid…
Uniper’s fifth-biggest shareholder, Blackrock Inc., added some $7 trillion of heft to a group of investors on Friday that’s pressing the world’s biggest emitters to change their ways. The addition of the world’s largest fund manager is a significant milestone for the Climate Action 100+ group, which advocates for emissions transparency and climate action…
Connecting the 1,100-megawatt plant to the grid would undermine “the credibility of the coal commission,” said Claudia Kemfert, a professor for energy economics at the DIW in Berlin.
“It cannot be that Germany’s coal exit will be marked by the opening of one of the biggest coal-fired power stations in Europe,” said senior Green Party politician Oliver Krischer in an email to Bloomberg.
(Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, has committed $500 million to launch Beyond Carbon, a campaign aimed at closing the remaining coal-powered plants in the U.S. by 2030 and slowing the construction of new gas plants.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/germany-s-farewell-to-coal-complicated-by-new-uniper-plant
10
14 Jan: Unearthed(Greenpeace): New China-backed coal plants on EU’s borders could saddle states with massive carbon costs
Documents reveal feasibility studies for two major projects – backed by Chinese banks – massively downplay the costs of emissions and ignore many air and water pollution impacts
by Eleanor Rose
At least one of the planned coal plants in Bosnia and Serbia is reportedly part of China’s “Belt and Road” initiative, which treats the region as a crucial strategic transitway for Chinese goods to Western Europe…
But previously unpublished documents, obtained and translated by Unearthed and examined by experts, show that the feasibility studies used to seek and obtain approval for the power stations contain basic flaws which massively underestimate the costs the plants will face once Bosnia and Serbia join the EU’s carbon market, which they would need to in order to become EU members.
That could leave local taxpayers on the hook, since parliaments in both countries have provided state guarantees to China on the loan repayments…
Green MEP for the South West, Molly Scott Cato said: “Any country negotiating to join the EU must meet Paris Agreement standards on carbon reductions and any energy investments should be viable at the current ETS carbon price.
“King Coal is dead – it is a stranded economic asset and environmental disaster. If we are to prevent climate chaos we must leave it in the ground. Building Chinese backed coal plants in Bosnia and Serbia therefore makes no sense in any respect.”…
https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2020/01/14/china-belt-and-road-coal-plants-in-bosnia-serbia-balkans/
30
Thats ironic….the chinese communists economically chewing on the chair of the eu communists….
10
UNBELIEVABLE:
14 Jan: Reuters: Australia’s massive fires could become routine, climate scientists warn
by Matthew Green
LONDON (Reuters) – Bushfires ravaging Australia have provided a foretaste of the kinds of conditions that could become normal unless the world moves rapidly to curb emissions of the greenhouse gases driving global warming, scientists have warned.
Although Australia’s government and parts of its media have attempted to downplay the role of man-made climate change in making the country more vulnerable to wildfires, a review of 57 scientific papers published since 2013 suggested clear links…
“We’re not going to reverse climate change on any conceivable timescale. So the conditions that are happening now, they won’t go away,” Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts Research at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre, who co-authored the review, told a news conference in London on Monday.
The review found that climate change had led to an increase in the frequency and severity of what scientists call “fire weather” – periods with a high fire risk due to some combination of hotter temperatures, low humidity, low rainfall and strong winds.
The effects had not only been observed in Australia, but from the western United States and Canada, to southern Europe, Scandinavia, the Amazon and Siberia, the review found…
Betts said Australia was particularly vulnerable to fires since its land area had warmed by more than the rise in average global temperature )THANKS TO BOM) of about 1 degree Celsius since pre-industrial times…
The review was carried out using https://sciencebrief.org, a new online research platform set up by Britain’s University of East Anglia and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-australia-report/australias-massive-fires-could-become-routine-climate-scientists-warn-idUSKBN1ZD06W
12 Jan: UK Govt: Realising our ambition through science
New report sets out a series of recommendations to put science and engineering at the heart of government policy
From: Government Office for Science and HM Treasury
Science is crucial for the success of the country and plays a vital role in government, providing the evidence and support we need to achieve impact in policy-making and operations. It ensures government is resilient against shocks and emergencies, and equips us to capitalise on the emerging opportunities that technology provides.
The review Realising our ambition through science (LINK) assesses government’s current science and engineering capabilities and recommends how best to use these to meet future challenges…
LINK 88 PAGE PDF
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/realising-our-ambition-through-science
pages 21/22: The purposes of science in departments
12.Government invests in science, evidence development, and the underlying capability which helps supports them, for a wide range of reasons:
• At its most transformational, government investment in science helps to take forward society’s understanding, particularly where long-term trends are fundamentally changing the context within which government operates. The Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services was first created by the government in 1990. The development, by the former Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), of the 2050 Calculator is another example.13 This award-winning computer model allows citizens to put themselves in the place of policy-makers and model the implications of their own policy decisions for the reduction of UK emissions, clarifying the trade-offs and interdependencies that affect the decisions involved. This work has had an International impact; a version of the calculator has been developed by the Chinese government…
page 23: Chapter 2: Understanding the functions of science in government
•Government science also has a role in sustaining excellence in the UK academic science base. The Met Office Hadley Centre has partnerships with a number of universities on climate science, and itself has a first-class track record in the publication of cutting-edge climate science…
page 79: Environmental and resource stress
15. Global warming and energy consumption Global warming caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions has a large number of consequences, ranging from decreased biodiversity to more extreme weather patterns and food and water shortages. As we become more aware of the causes and consequences of global warming, more policies exist to attempt to limit the possible outcomes. The number of laws relating to climate change has increased by approximately 20 times in the last 20 years, although only 40% of countries have explicit reference to climate change in their plans for development. Technology and innovation must follow changing public/academic views on what is good for the environment. As our awareness of climate change increases, and as we experience more of the consequences, it is likely that more regulations will exist to limit the negative outcomes. This is expected to drive innovation away from traditional oil and gas-based sources of energy, to renewable sources.
Climate change is also predicted to have significant effects on food and water security, pests and diseases, and cause disruption to supply chains. This is likely to lead to increased research into food alternatives (e.g. marine protein or genetic technologies), agri-engineering and different methods of sustainable food or water production…ETC
30
13 Jan: UK Independent: Boris Johnson urged to tackle climate emergency as poll shows huge support for carbon emission cuts
Exclusive: ‘Major wake-up call to the government’ as 70 per cent back move to net-zero emissions by end of decade
by Andrew Woodcock
Boris Johnson was today facing calls to step up action on global warming, after a poll for The Independent found overwhelming support for radical change to end the UK’s net carbon emissions by the end of the decade.
Some 70 per cent of those questioned by pollsters ***BMG said they supported the target of net-zero emissions by 2030, with only 7 per cent opposing it.
And support for swift action over the next 10 years was high across all age ranges, social groups and parts of the country, countering perceptions of a generational or urban/rural split on the climate emergency…
(The figures) came as wildfires in Australia (LINK) fuelled anxiety about the impact of increased temperatures around the globe…
(ACTIVISTS & ZEALOTS GET ALL THE QUOTES)
BMG interviewed 1,508 British adults between 8 and 10 January.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-climate-change-emergency-carbon-emission-cuts-a9280726.html
above is re-run of the following which has Greta playing the role of the bushfires in the latest survey:
11 May 2019: UK Independent: Majority of voters back radical cutting of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, poll reveals
Exclusive: Six out of 10 people back drive to slash emissions over next three decades
by Lizzy Buchan
The exclusive survey by ***BMG Research found 59 per cent of voters would support such action, with only 8 per cent opposing it and 34 per cent who had no view…
Enthusiasm for tougher measures comes as climate change soared up the agenda, with international focus on school strikes inspired by teen activist Greta Thunberg, the Extinction Rebellion protests in London and Sir David Attenborough’s BBC documentary on climate change…
Despite widespread support for tougher action on climate change, nearly half of voters (48 per cent) took a dim view of civil disobedience committee by Extinction Rebellion.
Some 25 per cent supported the activists…27 per cent had no view…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/climate-change-greenhouse-gasses-public-support-poll-greta-thunberg-a8909641.html
yet, less than a month ago, BMG could barely find a majority of Laborites who liked Labors CC policies! only result that has no figures, & you have to contact BMG if you want their data/methodology etc:
***”The party’s position on climate change is also slightly more popular than unpopular”
21 Dec 2019: UK Independent: Voters want next Labour leader to ditch Corbyn’s agenda but are not convinced by current candidates, poll finds
by Benjamin Kentish
…the ***BMG survey for The Independent found that voters think Labour must ditch its current approach to taxation, public spending and national security, and shift towards the centre ground…
***The party’s position on climate change is also slightly more popular than unpopular…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-jeremy-corbyn-agenda-candidates-latest-starmer-thornberry-nandy-lammy-a9256491.html
20
I wonder who were the people targeted by the pollsters and how the questions were framed?
10
Wall Street & Co hang on for this the way developing countries hang on for the promised $100bn a year. neither will happen, at least not in any significant way, is my guess:
14 Jan: Reuters: China to make national carbon trading ‘breakthrough’ by year-end: official
Reporting by Muyu Xu and David Stanway
BEIJING/SHANGHAI – China expects to make a “breakthrough” on the establishment of a nationwide carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) by the end of this year, the country’s senior climate change official told Reuters on Tuesday.
Establishing a nationwide ETS was one of the pledges made by China ahead of the Paris climate change agreement of 2015, but implementation has been repeatedly delayed amid concerns about transparency and the quality of the nation’s emissions data.
“We will ***strive to make a breakthrough in progress before the year-end,” said Li Gao, head of the climate office at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, speaking on the sidelines of a conference in Beijing.
The scheme was originally designed to include all major industrial sectors but its first phase will be limited to the coal-fired power industry, which is responsible for around 3 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year…
China’s total annual carbon emissions stand at around 12.3 billion tonnes, according to the last full inventory covering the year ***2014…
Senior officials, however, have been seeking to curb expectations.
Li Ganjie, Minister of Ecology and Environment, told a national meeting on Monday that the situation facing China’s environment remained “grim” amid “profound and complex changes” affecting the global economy.
***Economic growth in China has slowed to its slowest in nearly three decades following a punishing trade war with the United States, sparking concerns that China’s campaign to cut pollution and decarbonise could be relaxed.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-carbon/china-to-make-national-carbon-trading-breakthrough-by-year-end-official-idUSKBN1ZD05N
***one more thing to thank Trump for.
20
As a general rule, I halve the BOM’s forecasted rainfall, and then what falls is usually half that again. They need to be a little more circumspect, so as not to raise expectations.
20
That headline says it all. 🙂
30
Rain gauge here says “Not yet”
30
And no doubt you also worry about the possible flooding from runoff from the burned out areas. But it looks like you need the help with the fires so I hope the rain gauge starts to show something soon.
20
Sticking with fossil fuel constrains our living standard as there is only so much oil and gas to go around. Moving to renewables removes that constraint.
Australia will do very well out of a zero carbon economy. Fu*k the rest of the world, it is in Australia’s interest to make it happen.
What are you doing to make it happen.
010
Just let it rip. You can have my share of the forward options OK?
90
Now that is a funny post.
Known coal deposits just keep increasing, Fracking has only reached a tiny pinprick of what is available
And without those, you CANNOT renew renewables every 10-15 and build new renewables.
You are indulging in a DELUSIONAL FANTASY, frednk !
100
I understand that there are enormous deposits of oil shales as yet to be exploited in Aus. The amount of oil and other hydrocarbon products easily optainable might be displayed by the production quantities from the old Joadja Creek shale oil facility near Mittagong which operated for about 40 years up to its closure in 1911.In their history of the operation,Leonie Knapman and Adrian Hutton quote that 120 tonnes of shale would produce 45000 litres of crude oil In 1884 alone it produced 36000 cases of kerosene and 6000 cases of petroleum. each case containing 36 litres of product. My father grew up near the refinery and I remember him telling stories of getting into trouble for playing near the rail system.
30
And no, it is NOT in Australia’s interest to convert to fantasy UNRELIABLE energy sources.
You want to talk shortages, try lithium, cobalt (are there enough children left to mine it ?)
And what do you think wind turbine blades, and all those foundations, are made from and are huge users of.;-)
130
Fredink seems like a real “Hook Line and Sinker” kind of guy who lets other, more aware people think for him.
Just imagine the luxury of never having to think again, evah.
xzzzzzzzzz
KK
80
Everything that we do, or touch, or eat, can be traced back to a single chemical. That chemical is Carbon. Oh, and by the way, you and I and every reader of this blog, primarily is made up of hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon, with a few other trace elements.
120
No kidding? You’ve done some pretty high level reading preparing for your return.
08
But some posters exhibit very much higher levels of methane and hydrogen sulfide.
30
Its OK GA,
Did you know that a dried leaf has a higher percentage content of dreaded CARBON, than a live leaf.
You better change your emoticon, it is the epitome of CARBON !
30
Welcome back again Rereke.
I wonder sometimes how people can live in a renewable energy hell and not recognize that it isn’t working. Just reading about the price of electricity in Oz is enough to scare me out of wanting that shoved down my throat.
30
frednk,
I have been hearing for more than 30 years that the world will run out of oil tomorrow. It ain’t happened yet.
Any one with half a brain will know that everything ends, even the Earth itself. In the meantime it seems to take more than half a brain to figure out that renewable energy is nothing but trouble. Perhaps it takes a brain and a half, I don’t know. But I would rather let things adjust themselves trusting in a free market and the very honest and legitimate profit motive than in some government abortion of a program trying to force people to change behavior because I have never seen a government mandated change that did anything but waste money while failing miserably to improve things.
You are dead wrong except for one thing, what Australia does is indeed only Australia’s business.
30
The first published article about oil running out was in 1929.
40
I don’t doubt you but I wasn’t around to read it in 1929. I first heard serious predictions of oil running out about 30 years ago, actually a little more, about mid 1990s.
20
It (oil) won’t run out while there is still life on the planet to provide the raw material and there are plate tectonics to process that raw material into something we’ve found useful.
11
Absolutely nothing at all.
At 0.04% of the atmosphere, CO2 is a trace gas and has no noticeable effect. If it does, the effects are swamped utterly by those of the sun. So, if you can find the Solar remote control, feel free to try and control the Sun … in the meantime, enjoy your Sack-cloth and Ashes (no, not the cricket ones) and good luck, you’ll need it.
40
frednk is someone who believes there are others that know more about the science and the economics than himself. He also believes you should read. Here is a little book, it is not a hard read. Only $13.00. You will be happy to know the Greens don’t want to read it either. Climate change action should be about sacrifice.
https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/superpower
The guy is a professor at Melbourne University, in my world his views should be considered.
Oh dear Liberal science minister has had enough of the [snip]:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/science-minister-says-climate-denial-a-waste-of-time-in-wake-of-fires-20200114-p53rev.html
And the Sydney young liberals have passed a motion calling for the party to get real.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/02/nsw-young-liberals-climate-push-puts-them-at-odds-with-morrison-government
You are rapidly becoming the crazies on a soap box pushing nonsense in the park, in short a web site that has entertainment value, but is of no consequence.
It always had to be thus, science is humanities best attempt to predict the future, our brightest are likely to be better at that than a bunch who can’t even grasp why CO2 is a greenhouse gas, pushing conspiracy theories.
Don’t worry, you will always have Barnaby Joyce on your side, which is strange given that the solution will open up a whole new industry for country folk.
14
Frednk, so others know more than you but you know which expert to pick, is that right?
Good luck with the smug.
50
Jo
Interested in a Peer reviewed journal article that supports your position.
All I have seen so far on this site is little bits of data taken out of context and a refusal to look at the big picture.
03
Evidence, frednk, empirical evidence. We don’t need any. You do.
30
Or maybe you can explain the big picture so everyone understands it?
30
Roy
The big picture is easy. There is more heat coming in than going out. At the moment the excess is melting the ice caps, when that is done we are in deep shit.
01
Yes. climate models said the Antarctic would heat twice as fast as the rest then nothing happened until a big El Nino of 2016 seemingly affected the sea ice — and even the modelers admit they have no idea why it has reacted the way it did. Was CO2 not a greenhouse gas until 2016?
20
Well NO there isn’t.
If increased CO2 was “trapping” [LOL] heat, the OLR would diverge over time from the atmospheric temperature
And it DOESN’T !
00
That may or may not be true but it’s immaterial to our little discussion. You, along with everyone before you have failed to show even one shed of credible evidence that the evil carbon[dioxide] can do as you claim it can do. Until then you are one more obnoxious voice crying fowl when you cannot show that any fowl exists.
Weather does as it pleases and so does climate. And if the cause of whatever you think is going wrong is not CO2 You should worry about being hung so far out on a limb with no evidence to support you.
10
” fowl ”
Do you mean as in “chicken little”
Or “headless chook”
Both seem appropriate. 🙂
00
“is melting the ice caps,”
WRONG
DMI Ice Volume
MASIE Arctic sea ice extent
Arctic sea ice extent is actually pretty much in the TOP 5% of the last 10,000 years
And a graph of Antarctic sea ice mass since 1900
Antarctic temperatures since 1979 have been falling
10
DMI Ice Volume
Sea ice doesn’t alter sea level, it is the fresh water from land ice melts that does.
MASIE Arctic sea ice extent
Here is a better one to support your argument.
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/10/arctic-sea-ice-thickness-increasing-for-ten-years/
Temperature rising, land ice melt increasing reducing arctic salinity, sea ice extent rising. Not exciting news for those denying what is going on I would have thought.
“Arctic sea ice extent is actually pretty much in the TOP 5% of the last 10,000 years”
I would expect this to be true. When land ice melts the sea ice extends. Salt water has a lower freezing point and melting land ice adds fresh water.
“And a graph of Antarctic sea ice mass since 1900”
Miss representation of large numbers, again.
As the mass of ice is pretty much temperature independent I will stick with volume
Back to 1901 figure 13 as a deviation.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1
Artic temperature, it is 2020 look at all the years.
https://skepticalscience.com/Rapid_Arctic_Warming_Part_One.html
00
As the mass of ice is pretty much temperature independent I will stick with volume
LOL””” not significantly within any range on the planet.
And that graph is based on PIOMAS data.
sorry if you have problems with big numbers.
Yes lets look at Arctic temperature shall we.
Great to see you admit that the Arctic has far more sea ice than for most of the Holocene.
You are not helping your cause. 😀
Historically
00
Oops that historically down the bottom is some Arctic temperature data, in the wrong place.
00
And it is back up by HadCrut
00
And as you can see, Arctic sea ice follows the temperature.
00
as a deviation.
And a piddlingly small one isn’t it. !!
Good thing we came out of the Little Ice Age isn’t it.
Opened up the Arctic waters in summer , just a little bit .
00
Temperature rising, [in Arctic]
Not until the 2015 El Nino it wasn’t
00
“denying what is going on”
Your efforts to DENY the fact that Arctic sea ice has been steady for over a decade, are quite hilarious 😉
00
“”Miss representation of large numbers, again.”
Big numbers make things real. Try to cope.
Produce your own graph of Total Antarctic Ice Volume, by all means 😉 (no, not some piddlingly small deviation graph)
Only part of Antarctic with any melt is over a very active volcanic region
00
Incidentally, Greenland also has far more ice area than for most of the last 8000+ years.
Only marginally down from the EXTREME HIGH of the Little Ice Age.
So that puts a lie to your melting land ice conjecture.
Y’see fred, once you study something other than what the AGW illuminati sell you, you get a perspective that tells you that we are actually in a quite COOL period of the current interglacial.
One might call it the Modern SLIGHTLY Warm Period.
00
Energy must be conserved.
00
Energy must be conserved.
00
Interested in a peer-reviewed article that has empirical evidence of warming from atmospheric CO2.
Waiting.!!
00
Do a google search with the string:
global warming caused by CO2 peer reviewed articles
Pick one of 23000 results.
00
Pick your fallacy. Got no evidence at all then?
20
So you can’t find any, OK
Always the way.
Really quite LAUGHABLE. ! 😀
00
Come on, you can do it.. Just ONE. !!!
00
Peer review may be your bogyman but it’s not mine. It means nothing about the correctness of any claim by any author. It has been corrupted more than once. It may be done by someone incapable of judging the material being reviewed. It’s original intent was to make sure that published papers meet the standards of the journal considering publishing them, possibly also to see if they meet professional standards that apply.
Relying on peer review for anything else is scientific malpractice.
00
Andy
The science is really pretty easy, it does require you to accept that radiated heat comes in packets called photons, that photons can interact with molecular bonds, that the phonon energy can be transferred to the molecule, that the energy speeds up the molecule and that molecular speed is heat. None of this is hard to accept if you have done 1st year university physics. Some of the papers will explain this, but it is not a research topic.
00
I understand “the science” way better than you EVER will.
Still waiting for that paper with empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2
Did you know that warming by atmospheric CO2 has NEVER been observed or measured anywhere on the planet.
It only exists in models.
And models are NOT EVIDENCE.
Waiting , waiting 🙂
00
Feel free to argue with whatever statement below you want to and I will discuss it further.
-The issue to be explained in the warming of the atmosphere. That is measured, do you accept this?
-Do you accept that CO2 molecular bonds captures heat photons and it convert the energy into motion.?
-Putting aside cause and effect, do you accept the atmosphere CO2 level and the global temperature are correlated?
-Do you accept that the planet radiates heat?
-Do you accept that the sun and the planets core is an energy load that the planet has to radiate back to space if temperature is to remain stable?
-Do you accept that the ocean is a heat sink and it is getting hotter?
-Do you accept the poles are melting?
-Do you accept there is a energy of solidification,and because the poles are melting the temperature is not riding as fast as it might?
-Do you accept that man is adding to the CO2 generated?
-Do you accept that removal of CO2 by trees has slowed because we have chopped them down?
-Do you accept the seas acidity has risen?
00
“do you accept the atmosphere CO2 level and the global temperature are correlated?”
Sometimes, sometimes NOT. Not a very good start for you, was it. !!
“Do you accept that the planet radiates heat?”
-Do you accept that the sun and the planets core is an energy load that the planet has to radiate back to space if temperature is to remain stable?
And the energy out has not diverged from the troposphere temperature so no extra heat is being trapped.
“Do you accept that the ocean is a heat sink and it is getting hotter?”
A series of strong cycles will do that..
There has also been a decrease in tropical cloud cover, also leading to ocean heating
The tiny, if any, and weak, CO2 back-radiation is LWR and cannot warm the oceans. Only penetrates a tiny fraction of a mm.
-Do you accept the poles are melting?
Arctic, No change in last decade or more in either extent or https://i.postimg.cc/dVz6dQzB/DMI_Arctic_sea_Ice_Volume.png.
Arctic sea ice is actually still in the TOP 5% or so of the last 10,000 years.
Antarctica , https://i.postimg.cc/W3B4kPJ9/ant-ta-monthly-1979-2016-11-01.gif.
sea ice doing nothing.
So no, poles aren’t melting, haven’t for over a decade, and extent is far higher than most of the Holocene.
Yes We have helped the carbon cycle along a bit, isn’t it great !.. Trees are loving it and world biomass has increased some 10-15% in the last 20 or so years.
The oceans CANNOT acidify, it is alkaline and will remain that way. In fact they remain stubbornly around pH8.1 because of the massive carbonate buffering,,
FYI, here is a graph of ALL ocean surface pH readings since 1900.
10
“-Do you accept that CO2 molecular bonds captures
heatphotons and it convert the energy into motion.?”Internal motion that is immediately transferred by collision to the other 99.96% of atmospheric molecules, where it is dealt with like any other energy, by convection.
No heating occurs, it is just another conduit for atmospheric cooling of the surface, all controlled by the gravity based thermal gradient.
00
-The issue to be explained in the warming of the atmosphere.
https://i.postimg.cc/9z3X4LYv/SolarActivityProxies.png
https://i.postimg.cc/qq4VtvSR/Soon-Connolly-2015-NH-Temps-and-TSI.jpg
In fact, the ONLY warming of the atmosphere has come from ocean releases of energy called El Ninos
No warming from 1980-1997
NO warming from 2001-2015
And as atmospheric CO2 cannot warm the oceans, that is all you need to know to comprehend and wake up to the fact that you have been sold a LIE. !!!
10
“if you have done 1st year university physics”
Did you actually pass, rote learning with clearly not much understanding
… or did you just manage junior high?
00
Managed a couple of degrees one in engineering and the other in computer science.
00
so, still playing catch-up 🙂
00
What will you say if I remind you that the photon cannot both be on the ground and in some CO2 molecule? How then is it able to warm the earth?
The real problem though is that the action of CO2 in the atmosphere is inverse logarithmic. It’s ability to do anything has a well understood formula. It’s almost saturated and good math says that if you double the CO in the atmosphere you’ll get only a paltry 1.5 °C temperature rise, that is if the atmosphere acts according to what some human wants it to — probably not a good assumption. Given the large daily temperature swngs almost anywhere on earth, is that 1.5° going to be noticed? And has anyone ever observed it?
Now I’ve given you something you can argue with if you want to. But you still have an uphill battle because while there’s some warming evidence, there’s also the Antarctic ice sheet and floating ice shelf that are apparently going the other way and not melting.
Complicated ain’t it?
By the way, I’m one of the least capable readers to argue with. Some real heavyweights are also going to give you a hard time.
20
the point is that instead energy of value flying off to space it stayed in the atmosphere. May I remind you that this means energy is retained while the sun is still providing it (energy y). So instead of just y we have x+y. All sorts of other energy movements (a,b,c…) but it is all about that +x
00
meant to be “energy of value x”
00
” is inverse logarithmic”
Actually, measurements show that is not quite correct.
Any action of atmospheric CO2 appears to disappears to level out at around 280ppm.
00
When discussing energy balance temperature is not a good measure, considering energy flows leads to a better understanding.
00
You’ve done a great job of EVASION so far.
Still no empirical evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2.
00
“considering energy flows leads to a better understanding.”
Energy flows in the atmosphere are controlled by temperature and pressure difference.
Seems your “understanding” is sadly lacking !
00
Roy, what Gee Aye says is true.
Energy can spin around and around and contrary to normal physics where the centripetal force needed to hold a circular orbit is towards the centre of rotation, when dealing with energy only, i.e. Non solids, the force needed is the exact opposite.
This means that the radius of rotation gets smaller and smaller until the energy disappears as a point event horizon colloquially known as a black hole.
Not many people know about this, but Gee Aye does.
KK
10
KK,
Thanks but I knew that. The argument was shot down a long time ago. I believe it was Lionell Griffith who first put it out as a rebuttal to global warming.
I said it to see if our friend would bite on it. So he’s not fooled by that and is a little more capable than he first looked.
10
“if you have done 1st year university physics.”
“Do you accept the seas acidity has risen?”
If you had done some junior high chemistry as well,
you would know that a pH of 8.1 is not acidic.
10
Fred, it’s good to have another “contributor”; it takes the load off the rest of us.
🙂
10
Well then, frednk, I hope you will pose for your picture for me. I’ve always waned a picture of complete and total fool.
1. Big, loud and angry voice
2. Spouts off condemnation of the very perso you appear to want to get to change her mind
3. Pushes what anyone with that half a brain I mentioned above can recognize as a problem, not a solution
Yep, I think I called it about right.
10
In other words, you should not make threats even thinly veiled ones, especially foolish ones that you have no chance of doing anything about.
20
Threats?
00
What are those words if not a thinly veiled threat, especially given your attitude. You are rude and a bore. If you can’t see that then good luck making any progress here. Others may be more polite to you but I’ve seen enough of this demand that I or anyone kiss up to your self-righteous garbage to last a lifetime.
From Al Gore and James Hansen right on down to frednk you have no case because you never present any evidence or if you do, it’s so bad it’s laughable. But of course you can demand evidence of us, yet we make no claim of any kind, we just ask where is your evidence. You make the claim and it is therefore your job to present your evidence. So one more time, where is it?
10
that sure is frightening. I feel the threat too. Here is one of many news reports about this. Stay safe though and make sure someone is with you while you read it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/our-future-depends-on-it-young-libs-unveil-climate-change-action-plan-20191230-p53njr.html
00
You consider the Young Liberals a threat. Interesting.
There is no doubt climate change denial has wrecked the Liberal party, but I don’t think they are out to get those that ignored the science and told the story, well not yet anyway.
No Evidence, please, Here is NASA talking about it on the BBC on the 15/1/2020.
https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1217572829845250048/video/1
02
Yes Liberals are so wrecked they won the last three elections.
Maybe talk to your Labor Friends?
20
LOL, Lots of talk,
Lots of scientifically unsupported BS
… but NO EVIDENCE.
00
The Liberals have the problem they now have to walk back from climate change denial. You are seeing this happen, what is the current form of words, “Arguing that climate change is not happening is a waste of time”. Granted they still have to articulate the reason.
This is unfortunate as Australia has exceptional renewable energy sources and will do very well when fossil fuel use is curtailed.
[Frednk, you need to define scientifically what “climate change denial” is. Name the observations that the Liberals deny, or apologise for namecalling. The term add inflammatory nothingness to any discussion. Are you here to talk science or run propaganda memes? – Jo]
[Definitions??? You ask too much. If they define it then they can’t change the meaning to suit the situation,] AZ
00
Well that was a very rancid tirade, freddie…
Signifying nothing except your cult funde-MENTAL-ism.
Science obviously doesn’t matter to you.
You want to “believe” science.. then let’s start at the very basics shall we
Produce some empirical science that shows that human released CO2 actually cuases atmospheric warming.
If you can’t even produce that, you must be nothing but a “follower”, a toady, a vassal, with no mind of your own.
10
Andy I think your a lost cause, but to begin, do you accept that CO2 is a greenhouse gas?
02
He is so far ahead of you and your smug delusions…
20
I promise to be nice and just argue the science.
00
Yet you produce NONE. !!
00
Define “greenhouse gas”.
CO2 is a radiative gas.
At least get the terminology correct.
Greenhouse gases are used in greenhouses.
Greenhouses block convection
CO2 does not block convection.
10
Still waiting for that paper with empirical evidence. ! 😉
CO2 warming has never been observed or measured on this planet
It exists only in models as a supposed conjecture.. never proven.
Waiting, waiting.
00
If you want to argue greenhouse gasses remember there is another one more potent than CO3 called water vapor. If you’re worried about greenhouse gasses why not worry about the far more potent one? But don’t answer, let me tell you. The global warming cause needs something it can blame the human race for. And we cannot control the water vapor. We can control CO2. QED: point proved, it’s really all about power and control, not about anything real at all.
00
Agree
CO2 is the long lasting one.
Historically CO2 follows the planet temperature. Is it the cause or the result needs further thought.
Look at the historic record. Ice ages require low CO2 ppm, why is that?
Dust seems to be required to get the planet out of an ice age.
There seems to be a Goldilocks CO2 concentration, too low ice age, too high cooker. Are we as a species smart enough to control the level? We have the technology to run a fossil fuel free economy, I am an optimist, I think we will pull through.
01
Yes. Just fantastic how CO2 drives the warming from 600 years in the future. Pull the other one Fred. Perhaps you could admit that if temperature controlled CO2 almost entirely, then the Vostok graphs would look like….exactly what they look like.
20
The Vostok graphs are absolute proof that higher CO2 level DO NOT cause warming.
At peak CO2 level, the temperature was dropping, every time.
10
OK timing is everything.
I think this article explains it well.
https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=25
In the past it has been the releasing of CO2 that has amplified the change, this time around we are doing the work or damage depending on how you see it.
We as a species are smart enough to know that Co2 levels control the global temperature. We know how it works. Are we smart enough to use that knowledge to prevent the end of this inter glacial period?
00
No, SkS LIE to get around the facts.
Was always the way.
You cite SkS .. you LOSE.
10
And STILL no empirical evidence of warming by human released CO2
Just mantra statements, DEVOID of any actual evidence.
00
So, STILL absolutely no evidence of warming by atmospheric CO2.
Just some anti-science mumbo-jumbo about high levels.
Yes we are smart enough to control the level of CO2 …
… greenhouse growers do it all the time to ENHANCE crop and plant growth.
Optimum seems to be around 1000-1200 ppm.
No, the technology does not exist, except if you go nuclear.
But we should certain strive to NEVER let the atmospheric CO2 level drop to the dangerously low levels of 350ppm or lower.
10
And with China, India, SE Asia, Africa, and many other countries building new coal and gas fired power stations, CO2 emissions will continue to rise. 🙂
And there is absolutely nothing all your crazed ranting can do about it! 😀
10
Gaunaut is the very last person you should be listening to about climate and economics.
He will do/say anything and tell any mistruth to line his own pockets.
He looks at unreliables and sees DOLLARS to be scammed.
10
I notice one thing about Fred. He came on strong, condemning and complaining. But when challenged he began to debate. Perhaps there is hope for him yet.
Or he may give up and stay away.
By the way Fred, my degrees are BS and MS in computer science. When I fist heard of global warming I wasn’t sure if it could be true or was just a fad or what it was. My fear made it seem like trouble. But instead of panicking about it I looked at both the pro and con arguments. It’s a bad mistake to think you know it all because you probably don’t. If you could show me convincing evidence that I’m wrong I would have to change my position. And I know that’s the way things are. But by now the evidence mounting up against man-made climate change is strong, and it’s measured against your complete lack of empirical evidence.
Are you willing to go through the same process I did?
00
Roy having a honors degree in computer science i know you can get it without physics. Engineering not so much. Engineering depends on science to predict the future. We predict the dam will stay there, we predict the building will not fall and the plane will stay in the sky. It works out better than a crystal ball or gut feeling.
What surprises me about you guys is your willingness to take one small piece of information produced by the science community as they try and understand this, and ignore their conclusions.
To do this you claim scientists are corrupt and incompetent. I really can’t get my head around it.
00
Fred,
The interesting thing about this blog is that people are free to speak their minds without anyone enforcing a particular orthodoxy. You do need to stay on Jo’s topic and keep it relatively civil. I’m not responsible for what someone else may say and they are not responsible for what I say.
So what about science have you seen me abusing or ignoring. Keep in mind that disagreement with someone else’s conclusions is a legitimate part of science. But my entire time spent here has largely been spent asking guys like you to show me evidence to support what you say. Mostly they can’t.
00
No reply from Fred. I guess I stumped him.
00
Climate change is a natural phenomenon.
To show that it is not natural you need to produce evidence to that effect.
No evidence to that effect has ever been produced.
As German climate physicist Prof. Dr. Horst-Joachim Lüdecke put it:
“It is senseless to favor a certain hypothesis – senseless according to our still valid scientific paradigm – when no confirming measured data can be shown to support it. One can occupy himself with a hypothesis, put it at the center of his research, and even have complete faith in it. However one cannot use it as a basis for taking rational action without first having confirmed measurements. In summary: If we cannot observe any unusual climate activity since 1850 compared to the times before that, then we have no choice but to assume natural climate change.””
https://notrickszone.com/2015/01/06/german-physicist-sees-dangerous-return-to-medieval-scholasticism-climate-models-have-failed-conclusively/
We don’t just accept expert’s conclusions, nor should we (that confuses deontic and epistmeic authority):
“If one is appealing to an authority, it is more adequate to look not only at the authority’s conclusions but also at his reason’s and arguments.” (Finocchiaro, The Galileo Affair, 1980).
00
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
“There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
“Said Hanrahan” is a poem written by the Australian bush poet John O’Brien, the pen name of Roman Catholic priest Patrick Joseph Hartigan. The poem’s earliest known publication was in July 1919.
And My Country, published by Dorothea Mackellar in 1909:
“I love a sunburnt country
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.”
“Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the Rainbow Gold,
For flood and fire and famine,
She pays us back threefold –
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze.”
There have been 18 major inquiries into bushfires in Australia since 1939. But the recommendations are generally ignored, and then forgotten until the next major fire. No doubt there will be another Royal Commission or two after these latest fires. I can save them the time and money by writing the major findings for them now:
1. There has been grossly inadequate hazard reduction burning on public lands around country towns.
2. Local knowledge and experience is being ignored by State government bureaucracy, supposedly in the interests of protecting forest areas.
3. There is a lack of political will in some jurisdictions to comprehensively plan, fund and implement fuel hazard reduction strategies on fire prone public land.
If you haven’t managed the fuel, you will not be able to manage the fire.
Switching to 100% “renewables” will not prevent even one bushfire.
90
G’day Robber,
I’d like to your #1: “, and within National Parks and Nature Reserves.”.
…
Cheers
Dave B
…
PS But on reflection those words would never be allowed out from such a commission.
40
Not to mention clear roadsides for public safety.
20
Government sponsored propaganda.
Who in their right mind loves a drought stricken, fire ravaged Country?
Get rid of the deadly Gum Tree, and finish the Nation building our Fore Fathers started.
11
Oh dear insurance companies are not impressed by the little women on the soap-box.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/14/suncorp-and-iag-temporarily-stop-selling-insurance-in-fire-affected-areas-of-victoria-and-nsw
02
Don’t blame them, all that continual build up of fuel load, and people wanting to live right along side it.
“little women on the soap-box”
And what has Greta got to do with it?
10
“And what has Greta got to do with it?”
Good comeback.
00
There was a story over the last week in one of the US newspapers, sorry can’t remember which.
But I did find the same story from a couple of years ago on the ABC about Kelp forests dying because of global warming and warming seas.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-21/tasmanian-kelp-forests-dying-as-water-warms-dive-operator-says/8289300
Then I noticed a link in your story about volcanoes to the east of Tasmania.
Could there be a possible link here?
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/11/just-another-bunch-of-old-volcanoes-we-didnt-know-about-found-off-tasmania/
00
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/climate-environment/climate-change-tasmania/
A more recent story.
00
Hi barryd, No body seems to have a definitive answer as to why, but when the sun is behaving as it is at the moment. Two strange things happen, earthquakes and an awakening of volcanoes all over the world oft times large explosive volcanoes.
20
This might interest you.
Seismic activity is shifted 2 years forward.
Not saying there is a causal link between seismic activity and global temperature,
… but its certainly interesting.
20
This recent “global warming has wiped out the kelp” story is old hat. It has been revived from a few years ago. The main cause and the solution are known:
• Sea urchins graze kelp
• Excessive numbers of urchins graze excessive amounts of kelp
• Large lobsters prey on urchins (smaller lobsters can’t)
• Lobster fishery size limits were set too low
• When large lobsters were over-fished, the urchin numbers exploded
• They re-introduced large lobsters into some affected areas and, hey presto, the kelp came back in those areas
• Not global warming. All to do with Tasmanian fisheries mis-management. Don’t believe the ABC or the WaPo. End of story.
It’s like the bureaucratic response to bushfires — never ascribe to your own mis-management what you can just blame on global warming.
http://www.tasconservation.org.au/tas-conservationist/2019/8/27/the-long-spined-sea-urchin
60
Here is the ensemble guesstimate of MJO behaviour.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
00
Joe Bastardi is not looking at the RH in the lower troposphere which the rain and monsoon flow needs to come from.
Here’s regional relative-humidity, at 10,000 ft from ECMWF observations at midnight last night:
https://i.ibb.co/R4qGvrH/1-Screenshot-2020-01-15-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png
Here’s the regional relative-humidity at 10,000 ft forecast 10 days from now from ECMWF:
https://i.ibb.co/C2hYy78/2-Screenshot-2020-01-15-Windy-as-forecasted.png
As you see the atmosphere gets drier during the next 10 days and shows the source areas for a monsoon flow got drier.
The following screen shows rainfall pattern for the next ten days, which mirrors where that dry air is at 10,000 ft, through to 24,000 ft. This is the regional cumulative rainfall for the next 10 days (annotated):
https://i.ibb.co/yftMPTQ/3-Screenshot-2020-01-15-Windy-as-forecasted-3.png
There’s potential for useful moderate rainfalls over the northern bushfire ground, but the wet-season pattern is not looking weak. Expansion of the drought during Winter 2020 looks likely unless that pattern fundamentally changes.
40
Should be:
10
You might find this interesting, the new solar cycle has begun. Not sure I can accept Rob Baker’s solar theory, what do you think?
https://www.theland.com.au/story/6575133/change-in-the-weather-just-around-the-corner/?cs=15213
10
It seems cart before the horse to make a rain forecast without a viable physically-testable interaction mechanism which leads to it.
20
Yeah, thanks for your insight.
10
This pattern seems to be stalling the jet stream.
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
00
Here is a closer look.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=0
00
I think the BOM’s 4 day outlook for sea level average pressure
shows up what’s happening better..
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
When I lived in East Gippsland before 1999, we had a saying
“Low in the East
Three days rain at least”
Invariably these lows brought high rainfalls and sometimes big floods.
It’s very different here in the Adelaide Hills of SA
10
Yeah the rain’s great. A welcome relief after the depredations of the drought and fires. Our butcher birds made measuring the the rainfall difficult, however, by dropping two lumps of dried horse poop into the gauge. Their way of celebrating I suppose.
70
Hallelujah. Amazing song and worthy of many versions. It starts off where the music was good enough for King David. And good enough for the God who King David was loyal too. But somehow would not be good enough for the narrators girl. We don’t often see this level of genius in my view.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttEMYvpoR-k
We got rain two nights ago and when I woke up in the middle of the night and I heard it, that was the exact word that came to mind. But still in the morning the air was full of smoke and mist.
10
Don’t like you attacking science, don’t like the damage climate denial has done to Australia. Instead of leading the transition and taking advantage of it, we are no part of the problem. It is going to have long term consequences for our economy. But I do like your style.
13
Thing is Fred the climate is behaving normally, CO2 doesn’t cause global warming and its my melancholy duty to inform you that, as a consequence, global cooling has begun.
20
“Don’t like you attacking science”
You haven’t presented any !!
Tell us what we DENY that you can product hard empirical proof for.
We are still waiting.
—–
“we are no part of the problem”
What problem? Natural WEATHER variability.
What do you think Australia can do to stop natural WEATHER variability?
No, we are NOT part of the problem.
The people pushing and those grovelling to this anti-CO2 scam are the real problem.
That means YOU !
20
typo: product -> produce
00
Oh dear, we seem to have a broken fred.
10
Fred, you claim to know ‘evidence’ that the world is warming.
To me such a claim MUST be based on accurate observations of the temperature.
And here in Australia the main mob doing that is the BOM.
The BOM claims to have ‘evidence’ of Warming in Australia
Based on observations from it’s network of 720 weather stations across Australia.
However roughly 48% of those weather stations have now been shown to be producing INACCURATE temperature observations.
You can go look at the evidence for this inaccuracy here : https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/
I’ve been helping Ken Stewart in a minor way for the past 6 months
EXAMINE in detail every one of the bOM’s weather stations.
There is a global set of scientific guidelines to ensure accurate measurement of temperatures. These guidelines are developed & set by the WMO.
The BOM has in theory adopted these guidelines. Or rather it claims to have done so decades ago.
In fact there are 326 BOM weather stations which do not currently meet those guidelines.
What does this mena for the BOM’s claims about a warming climate ?
If the observations are NOT accurate, then no accurate honest claims can be made based on them.
Trying to do so is GIGO or Garbage in =Garbage Out.
BOM unfortunately in using these inaccurate temperature observations to develop it’s Global warming fairy tale, has betrayed the trust of the Australian people.
It has betrayed YOUR trust in it’s integrity & honesty !
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