JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Okay, let’s hope that ‘Renewable Energy Boom’ mentioned the other day rolls over all of us real soon, eh!
That way they can close Yallourn W in Victoria and solely rely on that boom of wind, powering us into the future.(/sarc)
Victoria now leads the country in wind plants, now with a Nameplate of 2294MW from its 24 wind plants.
Today, (Saturday 27Feb) from 7.30AM till 2.30PM, seven long hours, the total output power was less than 100MW, form ALL of those 24 wind plants.
The low point was at 11.30AM, when the total delivered power came in at 13MW. THIRTEEN MEGAWATTS TOTAL. That’s at a Capacity Factor of 0.57%, so a tad more than half of one percent. So for every 200 wind towers, only one of them had the blades turning over.
2294MW equates to around 1200 individual wind towers, so in the whole State of Victoria, there were ….. SIX towers in operation generating power.
Now, you might say I’m denigrating wind power all the time.
But, I ask you, if this is all there is going to be in the future ….. well, what do you do when there are times like this?
This is wrong. It’s just flat out wrong.
Think of how much was paid for all this totally useless wind power.
2294MW in total, and the highest it has ever been is 1350MW, and that was for one five minute recording period ….. in the last YEAR.
I wouldn’t be so down on it if it actually worked, but wind power just does not do what it’s supposed to do, ever.
Tony.
470
Tony, If they winterized those wind turbines like they should have in Texas, would they have worked any better?🤣🤣
40
You can ‘winterise’ the turbines all you want. It doesn’t make the wind blow.
And in fact, winterising means that if the turbines are stopped because of the cold and no wind, then winterising them effectively means they are drawing MORE power from the grid than they normally do when they are stationary.
Tony.
100
Tony, I hope you appreciate my sarcasm. I was in the wind industry until 2000. To connect to NEPOOL, you needed 95% availability. That was impossible but prudent. I saw what happened after that and could never again work in that industry. What a farcical and total failure. I proceeded in the transmission side and built/ tested substations and equipment for the next 20 years. I see big problems ahead.
john
90
I see now that the renewables
industrycarpetbaggers are becoming seriously miffed that they have all these wonderful plans to build six thousand million billion megawatts of Nameplate power covering every square inch they can lay their hands on, only to find that there is no existing infrastructure to support all those new plants to (hopefully) get all that power to consumers, and they are now protesting loudly, saying how it’s not their fault.Umm, ….. have you ever wondered why those renewables proposers advocate the closure of large coal fired power plants, and in the same breath, have proposed these wonderful new renewable power plants, umm, at the same site as those closed down coal fired plants. They don’t have to construct new transmission infrastructure.
Now think how many times that has happened recently.
These people are charlatans of the highest order.
There is NOTHING, not one single thing that is altruistic about renewable power.
Altruism is how it is couched when pitched to the public.
Behind the scenes, the proposers of renewable power plants are, umm, cuing Curly!
Tony.
90
Tony, I live in the US Northwest. What we are facing here is that a substantial portion of our coal-fired generation capacity will be shut down within the next ten years. The process has become unstoppable.
It gets worse. Approximately one-third of US baseload nuclear capacity, roughly 37 GW, will be forced off the grid by 2030 as a consequence of a severely distorted power marketplace caused by giving subsidized wind and solar priority access to the grid.
As it is in Australia, nothing in the way of any kind of realistic planning is being done in the US to replace the lost generation capacity. On top of that, environmental activists are pushing hard for a 50% reduction in America’s GHG emissions by 2030.
For the obvious reason that they now control how the votes in our elections are counted, climate activists will be in control of the US Government long into the future. Fear of voter backlash to these kind of extremist energy policies is no longer a concern for America’s policy decision makers.
Here is the bottom line. Over the next decade, everyone who lives and works in the United States must learn to get by using possibly half as much energy as we consume today. On the other hand, long underwear and bicycle manufacturers in China will be making money hand over fist.
150
Beta Blocker,
Back in March of 2008, when I started doing all this, I made the decision to write about something like this, and because the Blog I was asked to contribute to was based in the U.S. (Pennsylvania) then I did the exercise centred on the U.S. The intent of my original Series was to find a way to replace coal fired power in the U.S. so that the U.S. could comply with what The original Kyoto Protocol demanded, a reduction of CO2 emissions to a level well below the 1990 emissions. Everything I wrote in that more than 50 Part Series can be repeated word for word today and still be the truth.
The main conclusion I came to was that if they were ever to go through with something like that, then the renewables of choice, wind power and solar power
wouldCOULD not be able to do that. Word for word what I wrote those thirteen years ago is as it is right now.Sometimes you look back on something you might have said years and years ago and be embarrassed by it, and how what you thought at that time may be proven to be totally wrong, and how you wished that you hadn’t said those things, and then put them down so everyone can see how wrong you were.
That’s not the case here.
Tony.
130
Hi Tony,
Similarly, I thought to investigate the claims of the wind proponents at around the same time. As you know, I went to the trouble of publishing my findings, including my concerns, as a properly peer-reviewed scholarly paper. That was published in 2012. Nothing has happened since, with the massive growth in wind capacity since, in Eastern Australia, to change my then conclusions. If anything, the resulting increase in instability observed on the grid due to wind generation is even worse than what I predicted.
Oh, if there might still be anyone who believes that Anton (Tony) is merely indulging in cherry-picking, again, at around 9 am this morning, total wind output collapsed to around 3.5 percent of total installed capacity. See: https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy .
And if anyone needs further data to check or refute Anton’s findings, have a look at the monthly charts that are also available at the above link. Substitute other months and years in the monthly link address – you can look at any month all the way back to early 2014.
The pattern is almost invariant: there are two or more crashes in total wind output to near zero almost every month. The significance: at high wind penetrations one can expect these dips to lead to widespread, even total, blackouts, every time they occur.
As Anton says, with this kind of frighteningly pathetic performance, to think to go to 100 percent renewables is complete and utter madness.
Nothing more needs to be said, except that the recent experience in Texas merely confirms those findings of ours.
Thanks Anton.
Regards,
Paul Miskelly
60
“Stolen Generation”?
60
Tony, is that net generated power or just output? Every turbine requires grid power to turn into wind and energise the coils of its motor. Every wind farm needs electricity to keep the systems and software that monitors and manages the wind farm functioning, including functions like fire alarms, security systems, CCTV etc.
So, every wind farm and turbine added to the network must draw power, even if it is generating no electricity. But where do we find this information?
140
Total net generated power for the State.
Tony.
90
Taralga Wind Farm. “This 107MW wind farm can generate enough renewable energy to power 38,000 homes.” (Google)
So, using information from both Google and Tony, Victorian wind farms “can generate enough renewable energy to power” 813,475 homes. However, at one stage they were only suppling enough renewable power to supply 4,610 homes.
Whoops -just missed it by 808,865.
You’re right Tony. This is so, so very wrong!
180
How about a fair discussion including the many benefits of wind power?
A large quantity of windmills on the electric grid should boost sales of gasoline and propane-fueled home electricity generators, flashlights and candles.
220
I’m sure we’ll hear from Gee Aye and what’s his name on that shortly, giving us the drum on how wind does the job.
That’ll be a fair discussion, aye?
101
Love your work
90
Just thinking about all those people who posted on power poles in NSW some years ago slogans against privatisation of power : you will pay more!” Where are these people now?
50
They’re mostly at the ANU, UNSW etc., or other green-left re-education camps.
Some are even at the BoM and CSIRO.
61
Enough to build one of those “expensive” nuclear plants?
The total in all states wind & solar would have done so surely.
80
They spent more for the wind plants, 24 of them and a Nameplate of 2294MW. With the Capacity Factor in place, the average power generation comes in at 675MW.
The 420MW Macarthur wind plant cost $1.2 Billion all on its own.
And believe me, the construction cost of wind plants is only going in one direction ….. and it isn’t down.
An average nuclear power plant will have two 1400MW Units, so an output of 2800MW, and run at a yearly CF of 92.5%, so 2590MW average output.
So 24 wind plants at the average cost of Macarthur comes in at $6.55 Billion.
The multiplier now from the ratio of both average generated power means the cost now becomes $23.15 Billion.
The ‘nuke’ lasts twice as long (well, almost three times as long really, as wind plants are failing at 15 years) so the cost now becomes $46.3 Billion.
NO ‘nuke’ will even get close to costing that.
Argument is semantics really, because no nukes will get built here in Australia.
The Chinese are building USC coal fired plants for a fraction of the price, and almost the same performance.
Tony.
120
Hi Anton,
As you say, the gap between the operational reality of nuclear generation and the fairyland claims of the wind lobby is becoming increasingly wide.
A couple of examples:
1. A perusal of the World Nuclear News site will find quite a few articles on nuclear plants whose operational licences have been extended out to 60 years and beyond. As we know, unlike wind generation, nuclear plants are subject to very strict scrutiny, so re-licensing is not a trivial matter.
2. There is a recent story there on one of the Darlington reactors in Canada establishing a new world record for operational availability of 1106 days, well over 3 years.
This is not an isolated case either, as the article shows, but results from the fact that the CANDU basic design, used in a number of Canadian and Indian reactors, permits on-line refuelling, allowing the reactors to continue to operate at that time. See: http://wna.informz.ca/z/cjUucD9taT0xMjUyNjIxJnA9MSZ1PTkwOTkwNjk1NyZsaT0yMTkyNTIyOQ/index.html .
What can one add: unlike wind generation, nuclear power works, and works, and when severe weather comes along, it hunkers down, and keeps working.
Regards,
Paul Miskelly
40
Getting the most out of a nuclear power plant single unit is an art form which took many many years to develop.
The art was in something as (seemingly) simple as withdrawing the control rods from the water. Withdrawing those control rods exposes more of the fuel in the fuel rods, hence the reaction.
As you are aware, there are two typical processes, PWR and BWR, and each has a different fuel rod assembly. Each rod will contain a number of pellets, and each pellet is around an inch long, and tubular, about say the size of the end knuckle of your pointing finger.
A PWR has (typically) 180 to 260 rods, depending upon which assembly is used for that type of PWR, and there are between 120 and 190 bundle assemblies in each reactor, and each assembly is 13 feet long. For a BWR, they have low 90s in rods per assembly, and between 370 to 800 bundle assemblies per reactor, again depending on the size of the reactor.
The control rods are removed (up and down) from the water exposing the fuel rods for the reaction to make humungous heat to boil water to steam (via each of the PWR or BWR processes) and the steam then drives the turbines which then drive the generators.
Now the art was in the withdrawal of the control rods ….. just enough to make the required steam, and doing that withdrawal of control rods on a rotational basis exposing the rods evenly over time, so that they run down in enrichment, (back to around 1%) all reaching that level at around the same time. This way, the reactor refuel could be done less often, and typically, that is now around 18 Months, some longer than that, and done one reactor art a time, so one reactor, then nine Months later the second reactor, and then nine Months later back to the first reactor, so 18 Months between refuels for each individual reactor.
At one time for the Diablo Canyon Plant (PWR) at San Luis Obispo in California, the refuel period meant that Reactor one was operational for the whole of the recording year of 2006. It fired up at the end of the refuel, and ran at full ‘whack’ for the whole 18 Months till the next refuel. That meant it ran for the full recording year. That ONE 1120MW generator delivered its power for the FULL YEAR at a Capacity Factor of 101.2%, almost 10TWH of power from the one reator, five percent of Australia’s total power consumption, from ONE unit.
There is just no comparison when comparing wind and nuclear power generation.
Tony.
40
Windmills belong in museums,
not part of electric grids.
170
Hi Tony, I like reading your updates, its unbelievable the waste of money being poured into this AGW madness. I think there is a tipping point coming where fact based science overwhelms the alarmism. Posts like yours all helps to make a difference.
180
That will only happen when the money runs out.
110
It will end in 2030 when the CCP reneges on Paris
80
Remember that the CCP has already moved its goalposts back to 2060.
70
Just a linguistic (political correctness) anecdote … a colleague of mine in New York (working for a very big company) was in a meeting where a woman used “reneges” in the way that anyone usually uses the word – to mean that someone doesn’t follow through on what they said they would do in an agreement of some sort.
However the African-Americans in the room (and perhaps others) were horrified, and my friend’s work colleague had to go through all sorts of “re-education” via the HR Department. Go figure.
10
Tomorrow is now or never time for President Trump stating he’s back in the Whitehouse which I believe will happen. Too many things behind the scenes still not making sense.
Pelosi’s fence around Washington and the National Guard is still there.
High profile
Attorney General quit and voter fraud investigation are moving forward still.
131
So if it doesn’t happen tomorrow then you’ll stop with this nonsense?
210
I actually find the Q-(H)opium working with me. I’ve just got no idea how we could fight this malevolent usurping powers. And when you turn to the sort of people who might want to do something about it, so many of them are Q-Anon (H)opium victims. I can’t even be creative about it because there is no-one left to bounce ideas off. This Q psy-op is fantastically successful. People have pointed out precedents in the early Soviet Union. I think the main man behind Q has been discovered. He is not a friend of his fans. If we have it right he is not who you think he is Gee.
00
Yes please … promise all the QAnon gibberish will cease when 4 March comes and goes!
If Donald Trump is re-installed as president on 4 March I will buy everyone on the board a beer – in Port Douglas. But the rightwing nutters never put their money where their mouth is … all manner of conspiracies and dis-informatrion can be bounced around the Internet, but there are no consequences for those doing it.
Cowards one and all!
And good to see the Herald-Sun in Melbourne – not normally a big friend of progressive government – has been withering in its huge criticism of all the anti-vaxxers. Which is nice to see.
00
Yes, and if there were any really bad outcomes to mass rushed vaccination I’m sure the Herald Sun will report them and admit it was wrong to act as an advertising agency for Big Pharma instead of a dispassionate news reporting organisation.
10
aaaand. Nope. Now it is March 4 because of some q reason.
00
March 04!
Thanks Gee Aye. It is interesting that you should have discovered that date. Are you following q?
10
good god no.
Name one thing that q has been correct about.
00
CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution
by Alan Longhurst
https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/26/co2-sensitivity-the-polar-solution/
60
A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline
Emma L. Worthington1, Ben I. Moat2, David A. Smeed2, Jennifer V. Mecking2, Robert Marsh1, and Gerard D. McCarthy3
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/26/a-30-year-reconstruction-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-shows-no-decline/
50
How the January 6th protest is being used
“When one country is determined to go to war with another, and there’s no justifiable reason for doing so, then a justifiable reason must be manufactured for both external and internal consumption that lends a spurious legitimacy to all the things that are to follow. Once the incident has occurred, the regime’s propaganda machine will both obscure the exact details of what happened while at the same time seeking to magnify public outrage at it.”
Read more at – https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2021/02/26/how-the-january-6th-protest-is-being-used/
80
It seems NZ has locked Auckland down again due to one case
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9306553/Jacinda-Ardern-throws-Auckland-week-long-lockdown-just-ONE-new-case-Covid-19.html
Surely there must be more behind all this.
120
You’re right. We are in lockdown … again.
70
1.5 million people’s movements and business restricted for 1 case of Wu-flu.
Auckland’s waterways divide the city quite conveniently into geographical chunks so it shouldn’t be a difficult exercise to lock down a chunk. However, the pollies can’t think in terms of units … they get hung up on terms like cities towns villages’
Everybody has to suffer. Why lock down the South Island when it’s all in the northern half of the north island? Idiots, the lot of them.
151
If there aren’t enough Police to man roadblocks, there is the armed forces man/woman power as well.
And nobody, but nobody in authority has even considered Vitamin D … no mention at all of raising resistance through its use. It doesn’t cure Covid so vaccines are `necessary’ … must have vaccines … nothing else will do.
With 51% of the NZ population with Inadequate down to Extremely Deficient in Cholecalciferol concentrations, it’s no wonder the Wu-Flu is resistant to being conquered. Vit-D is not a cure, but at the historically “normal” level of 120 nM/L — or better — it’s a cheap, practical and highly effective prophylactic.
Trouble is, anything over 30 nm/L is considered `normal.’
110
https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20201208/this-was-a-gift-to-us-ivermectin-effective-for-covid19-prophylaxis-treatment
Searches of Prof Paul Marik and Ivermectin
Reveal the protocols for use against Covid19 which he co-authored and a literature review. Findings of 97% reduction in deaths are included trials of Ivermectin on Covid19 patients.
No government needs to lock down the population where a cheap and effective remedy for an illness exists.
Our NZ Govt advisors can’t read apparently.
70
Our NZ Govt advisers — also known as the NZ Health Department — have had an historically fearful attitude to Vitamin D, recommending a mere 600IU as maximum daily doses for many years along with portentous warnings against ‘overdosing.’
Yet 4000 or more IU per day of Vitamin D boosts the immune system to assist it to resist infection from Covid and other viruses causing colds and influenzas, along with aiding the body to manage and recover from dementias, and common skin cancers. Covid is another corona virus which is not immune to the immunological preventive effects of vitamin D.
It was only very recently they acknowledged up to 4000 IU as actually useful and was not about to kill the patient from an immediate overdose. This was after the `Slip, slop, slap’ campaign helped reintroduce rickets to NZ’s children. Rickets is caused by low vitamin D. Gotta protect the skin from Cancer, but vitamin D is our front line defence!
They couldn’t say much with Auckland Hospital using 10,000 IU as medicinal doses.
Over 51% of the NZ population has lower than ideal ( ideal >= 120nM/L) concentrations. And the Health Dept 4000 IU maximum remains as their maximum recommended dosage, despite the last decade of research. At least it did when I last looked.
I am not surprised the advice given by the medical fraternity (aka the very unhealthy Health Dept) is so bad. Because Vitamin D was mis-named as a ‘vitamin’ back in 1935 when it was first discovered, it’s regarded as something we get naturally … from our food, which doesn’t contain much at all.
Our medics also wage open war upon cholesterol from which our bodies manufacture our vitamin D.
So between that and slip, slap, and Slop, it’s little wonder we have a pandemic of inadequate Good Health Hormone (vitamin D).
To enable the shortfall in Vitamin D to kill us all off even faster, Vitamin D blood test funding was removed from the battery of diagnostic blood tests. Blood tests for breast cancer and prostate cancer and diabetes-2, are still publicly funded, but not for vitamin D, their first line of defence.
The front pages of https://vitamindwiki.com reads like the “General Practitioner’s Manual” which lists most of the illnesses/ailments we humans suffer from when our serum levels of Vitamin D 3 are Deficient. These are the co-morbidities which Covid uses to kill.
Some relevant papers…
‘Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths’.html
Vitamin-D3-supplementation-in-patients-with-frequent-respiratory-tract-infections–a-randomised-and-double–blind-intervention-study.pdf
‘Vitamin D deficiency Implications for acute care in the elderly and in patients with chronic illness – Youssef – 2011’
20
Links not working. Claim by Safari that “address not valid”.
00
Woke, uncaring insanity.
CV19 is not the problem; it’s our “leaders”.
111
But it’s whack a mole and the mole will keep popping up somewhere. You can’t lockdown entire towns because of one case.
70
You know that, Tonyb, I know that. But it doesn’t stop the pollies from bankrupting the country.
As long as they can stay ignorant of Nature’s main prophylactic, they’ll keep trying to throw us off the cliff.
91
ahhhh but she just did
a few of out State Premiers have their finger poised over the lock down button (it’s easier than thinking)
on the different tack, my wife just had lunch with a police mate (female sargeant). She was talking about Andrews “ring of steel” around Melbourne and what a shambolic mess it all was from start to finish. Andrews thinks he can just wave his hands and magic happens , when in reality chaos happens. Think of a category, staffing, heating, food , water, lighting, toilets etc every single thing stuffed up , mostly assumed to be done by the mythical someone else (probably the same person who made the hotel quarantine decisions). About the only positive word she had was for the Defence folks who helped out professionally and came equipped with some required items (as they discovered when they left and took there toys with them, starting another round of WTF do we do now?)
10
Lock downs for any reason is the socialist way of doing things , Despot Dan and Adern love this model.
81
Comrade Cinders and her Clown Czars* have locked up 1.6 million Aucklanders (NZ’s largest city) in Gulag Kindness & Wellbeing for their own good doncha know!
One person ‘gets the sniffles’ and so, late on a Saturday night, Herr Dear Leader announces a week-long shutdown/lockup of the country’s economic engine room. It’s not so much a Great Reset (which the bent Minister of Finance will accuse you of being a c********y theorist if you use such a term) as a not-so-Great Reversal, similar to shoving your car into reverse AND pulling on the handbrake at the same time: bodies tend to fly everywhere.
‘Divide and Conquer’ is going according to plan – working poyfectly, ‘swimmingly’ you may say – as chaos and disruption and anger ensues. Fortunately I live 200 kms away from Gulag Auckland Archipelago and my new job is classified as ‘essential worker’, yet we, and the rest of NZ, are now under Level 2 Crockdown rules… total bs.
BTW your BoM is calling for SNOW in Tassie tomorrow, the 1st of March, and we get it Tuesday, the 2nd of March, albeit in Fiordland and the deep south: it would appear climate – the seasons – are bang-on precisely in tune (with the calendar).
* Clown Czars = Crown (virus) Czars
131
There is: her name – Jawohl-cinda.
She has no history of leading any private-sector organization, hence she doesn’t understand that underlings often mislead higher-ups about what really happens “in the field”.
When confronted with a new flaw in her government’s handling of the pandemic, she often says “that shouldn’t be happening!”.
This latest cluster is up to a dozen cases already. Somebody who was supposed to be “self-isolating” at home, went to work at KFC and did a full shift – all their fellow staff, 9 people are now ordered to stay home.
There seems to be no mechanism to ensure people stay at home when asked.
No doubt, the Dear Leader is telling some reporters about all this, “that shouldn’t have happened!”.
70
Just now in the UK we have very little wind, so currently the wind power being generated is 0.87 GW with a demand of 36.57 GW on a cold Saturday afternoon. Demand will probably rise as people start to cook their evening meal and settle down to watch TV.
It will be below freezing tonight, as it has for the past few nights, but I’m afraid the battery’s flat.
130
Luckily we had solar power on what was a very nice day and of course due to magic green physics the solar power will continue to provide much needed power throughout the night.
100
Annapolis Maryland suing a tn f oil companies:
Bullcrap lawsuit…
https://dcist.com/story/21/02/24/annapolis-battling-sea-level-rise-sues-26-oil-companies/
Geologic subsidence is why…
https://www.google.com/amp/s/grist.org/climate-energy/atlantic-coastline-sinks-as-sea-levels-rise/amp/
60
The Annapolis attorneys don’t have a case.
Chicago fixed that by setting a precedent in the 19th century.
30
Mind you, Chicago didn’t reckon on the `unintended consequences,’ which required more extreme public works.
10
For those interested, Live coverage of CPAC,is in progress, many links available by following..
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=LIVE+COVERAGE+of+%23CPAC+2021+
40
CO2-induced starvation update – (via @tan123)
Australian Farmers Harvest Largest Wheat Crop Ever
The 2020-21 wheat crop was 5% larger than the previous record outturn of 31,819,000 tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with the recent five-year average outturn of 21.6 million tonnes.
via: https://climatechangedispatch.com/australian-farmers-harvest-largest-wheat-crop-ever/
https://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/53020-australian-farmers-harvest-record-wheat-crop
IGC raises forecasts for 2020/21 global wheat crop
In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body increased its global wheat crop forecast by 5 million tonnes to 773 million tonnes.
The IGC raised its forecast for Australia’s wheat crop to 33.3 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 31.2 million and more than double the prior season’s 15.2 million.
Last week, Australia’s chief commodity forecaster said the 2020/21 season would bring a record wheat harvest, after heavy rains boosted yields in key producing regions in the east.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/igc-raises-forecasts-for-2020-21-global-wheat-crop/
India set to witness record crop size for 2020-2021 marketing season
https://krishijagran.com/agriculture-world/india-set-to-witness-record-crop-size-for-2020-2021-marketing-season/
110
and seeing China doesnt want nasty old Australian produce these days
00
Climate lockdowns are coming …
WEF: “Lockdowns are quietly improving cities around the world.”
https://twitter.com/chboursin/status/1365559196553510914
30
If people living in cities in the West wanted wanted cleaner air, quieter ambience etc they wouldn’t live in cities, they would decentralise. They don’t.
70
just an indicator, and a very good one, on how totally out of touch with reality the WEF really is.
00
BoM permanent drought, even if the rains fall, the dams won’t fill – update: Warning – soggy permanent drought ahead …
Australia’s autumn weather outlook: Wet conditions sent to linger until May
“There could be glimpses of summer like weather in the upcoming season, but what’s more likely is more miserable and soggy conditions.
That’s according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) autumn weather outlook that’s just been released.”
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/australia-facing-months-of-miserable-autumn-weather/news-story/50bda4370c9315accc3c54ea48ad5253
41
Notice how every BOM forecast has to be portrayed in a negative context. It’s usually either ‘heatwaves’ or ‘extreme conditions’, but even the prediction of rain is ‘soggy and miserable’.
Perhaps they mean it is making the BOM miserable as more of their modelled predictions fail to match reality.
60
“Fun For The Whole Family!”
“Amazon Introduces ‘Kindle Bonfire’ Feature That Lets You Burn Digital Books
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/02/27/fun-for-the-whole-family/
20
I should have posted this first
“It’s More Carbon Neutral Than Burning Them”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/02/26/its-more-carbon-neutral-than-burning-them/
20
Thought it important to let you all know that any concerns you, or those you know, may have about global warming can be put aside. I have fixed global warming.
This weekend I collated the data from my Ocean Temperature Controller (OTC) to check its operation in all three tropical oceans.
I have previously posted the data for the Pacific; again here:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhCDZxJvFjNW9tuul
This is the data from the Atlantic:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhB84cp–iNp5c5wd
And this is the Indian Ocean:
https://1drv.ms/u/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhCEKfdHHnKHRNkJa
As you can observe the regulation in all oceans work exactly the same and is quite tight around 30C despite the noticeable reduction in peak surface insolation from the days in February over the Indian Ocean compared with May in the Atlantic Ocean where ithe peak only exceeded 1000W/sq.m on one day.
Although global warming is no longer a concern, I noticed my system struggles to actually get the temperature to 30C in the Atlantic. The Atlantic does not have a large equatorial zone compared to its polar contact. It is close to being energy deficient to enable the temperature regulator to work because it relies on limiting insolation to regulate. It cannot regulate up. The Atlantic reaches the set point during the boreal summer because thew North Atlantic is a larger solar collector than the South Atlantic but the boreal summer also coincides with aphelion so the insolation at zenith is down compared with insolation during the austral summer. So remain ever vigilant of global cooling!
81
I’ll put this up again for discussion, there is nothing particularly new and some of what he thinks is arguably dodgy, but keep an eye on comments.
https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/26/co2-sensitivity-the-polar-solution/
30
Too long to read.
10
Probably his last post. He is 97yo. Clearly a lot of first hand observation as well. Nothing new in all that but a major work.
My control system actually negates global warming. I have conquered the devil gas. It can only be used for good now, no longer the evil of global warming.
I would like to patent my control system and get a royalty for every 1/100th degree Centrigade that warming is less than the IPCC forecast. However in my prior art search I found NASA GISS employees also stumbled on my method of control. Their description indicated only a partial understanding of the mechanism but they probably got cancelled before they could solve the entire puzzle:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/1999GL900197
So after 22 years of global warming, the warm pools still regulate to 30C – who would have known!
30
The warm pool is intriguing, during la Nina it shrinks and El Nino shows greater expanse. So they know that during La Nina epochs, like the LIA, the pool remains the same temperature at its core.
Are we looking at a hydrothermal heat pump that never fails?
30
The peak temperature is regulated by the level of free convection approaching the cloud base. That means that the cyclic cloudburst results in almost perpetual cloud.
The Pacific warm pool that moves across 156E is quite persistent right now but there has been times when it has not achieved 30C. The Indian Ocean at 95E is less persistent than the Pacific at 156E. The Atlantic warm pool only regulated at 30C during May. The location was quite a bit cooler.
The average over a year never gets above 30C but the average can be quite a lot lower depending on how often there is enough energy to to get to 30C.
There is also divergence from cooler zone to the warm pool. That drags latent heat energy from the cooler zones into the warmer zones. So cooler zones around 28C can have quite clear skies and take in more than 50% of the tropical ocean heat in the range 27.5C to 28.5C. So there is a lot more surface at 28C than 30C.
The zero net radiation temperature is closer to 32C and you will se that occur before the onset of cloudburst in locations where moist convergence is reduced; like southwest of Darwin. But the open ocean warm pools inevitably control at 30C.
The 30C warm pools are always present in the Indian and Pacific but the Atlantic does not always make it to 30C. One limitation with the buoys is that they are fixed and only remain in the warm pool for a brief period. If I was inclined, I could follow the warm pools using satellite observations but that involves a lot more data crunching and no one pays me to get these insights.
Other people who have made the same observation and written papers on it are either cancelled or getting handsome income from IPCC. I am hoping for an offer before getting cancelled.
30
This warm blob originated at the tail of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and has tracked south to its present position.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-138.56,-38.12,531/loc=-134.139,-52.347
Does the cyclic cloudburst hypothesis cover this?
10
Cloudburst is not a hypothesis. It is a well recognised phenomena; easily observable in many locations around the globe. The charts I produced above shows how the thermostatic control works. The potential for convective instability relies on an ocean SST of around 24C before it begins to kick in. Not much happens till 27C. At 32C the radiative energy balance goes to zero because the convective cycle never results in clear sky; hence 32C is the absolute maximum unless you are in the Persian Gulf where divergence prevents cloudburst. In open water the thermostat operates at 30C because there is convergence from the cooler zones.
The thermostat control is inevitably contained within the ITCZ and SST at 30C.
10
We can agree that the oceans cannot go above a certain temperature, but i argue that the warm pool is hydrothermal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_of_Fire#/media/File:Pacific_Ring_of_Fire.svg
10
Along with last year’s wet winter, wet spring and wet summer? (/s)
20
Supposed to go with #15
I got a “double post” message which seems to disconnect from indexing
10
“IBM going woke, going……”
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2021/02/ibm-going-woke-going.html
20
Latest Mars Image
https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/marvinonmarsperseverance.jpg
30
Did the rover take his Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator?
https://evil.fandom.com/wiki/Illudium_Q-36_Explosive_Space_Modulator
20
He was muttering something about Covid, Dr. Fauchi and Joe Biden. The audio feed dropped after a few profanities were uttered…
30
“The audio feed dropped after a few profanities were uttered…”
Were Dr. Fauchi and Joe Biden the aforementioned profanities?
20
CNN cut the video feed seconds later but not fast enough!🤣
20
‘Was it Worth it?’: Hungary Chides EU For Intransigence That Led to Brexit
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/02/27/was-it-worth-it-hungary-chides-eu-for-intransigence-that-led-to-brexit/
50
Just like when Labor was asked to cost their renewable folly and couldn’t, neither can the WA libs ask them any question you like but don’t ask the cost of going green .
70
Zak has gone further to the Dark Side than the Labour. Must be idiot advisors he employs
20
Oh The Places The Woke Will Go: Dr. Seuss Canceled For ‘Racial Undertones’
https://conservativefighters.co/news/oh-the-places-the-woke-will-go-dr-seuss-canceled-for-racial-undertones/
60
This is insane. I suppose it’s not long before Harry Potter is banned for inadequate Asian, Afro-American and transgender roles.
70
Well now you mention it ………..
10
Great Reset Architects Celebrate The Orderly Quiet of Covid Lockdown Cities
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/27/great-reset-architects-celebrate-the-orderly-quiet-of-covid-lockdown-cities/
30
It looks as if the used car you own is going to keep its value, especially if it is a popular crossover.
Instead of losing thousands the moment you drive away in your new car some are appreciating due to manufacturing slowdowns due to covid. Well, it ain’t gunna change any time soon, a worldwide chip shortage is hitting. Apparently the automotive industry uses 10% of worldwide chip capacity but they cancelled orders last year. The chip foundries [hadn’t heard that term before] are busy so the auto industry must take its place at the end of the queue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIcDqs5GLNw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyYAYtouTbg
50
OK it is the last day of summer but there is nothing summery about the last week here. I would normally be sitting shirtless, window open and fan blowing. Nothing like that.
I have lived long enough to have personally witnessed any appreciable trend, warming or cooling. I haven’t seen it. The only place a small amount of warming could be noticeable is the tundra IMHO and I don’t read about that.
81
I appreciate that the plural of anecdote is not data, however ten years in Darwin, and now 15 years of feedback from friends who still live there, tell us that Darwin definitely FEELS a degree or two hotter on average each day, all year. And in a tropical environment of high humidity, the difference between say 33° and 35° is really a lot.
16
Darwin is a tropical, coastal town. Townsville is a tropical coastal town. The only difference would be that we would have a slightly longer cooler winter. Darwin would also get more “duty storms” in the afternoon.
I hate dry heat so could live in Darwin, except that I have no wish to do so.
31
We had ten years in Darwin and had many good experiences … but it is a tough place and not suitable for everyone, certainly as you get older. Much more interesting city than Townsville though.
12
Oh well then the science is settled. Tilba’s lefty friends ‘feel’ that it’s a ‘bit hotter’.
Or could it just be that they are all a ‘bit older’, so they don’t cope as well with warm days?
51
Very perceptive Harves, but then we should consider other possibilities apart from discomfort.
10
Local anecdotal knowledge is valuable, I suggest the movement of the PDO back to neutral conditions in 2014 is a standout. As the PDO is slowly returning to negative phase it should reduce Darwin’s heat.
10
I copied and posted this from another thread that is a few days old that no one will see. But if you blokes can cast your eyes over this 20 minute clip it’d make interesting viewing.
Dr. Reiner Fuellmich and his colleagues are preparing a case against governments and bureaucrats in connection with medical fraud and corruption.
A very revealing deposition of a WHO whistle-blower.
https://brandnewtube.com/v/9NSwKs
How many of our domestic politicians and bureaucrats are compromised through these agencies and medical vested interests?
50
Interesting change in the sun from the sixth century .
https://www.ancient-origins.net/unexplained-phenomena/why-global-climatic-cataclysm-sixth-century-virtually-unheard-001360?fbclid=IwAR2olfJgVB3eNPfhsDleGPwtZt0OBMKPRGDpWHwzMwINvgehamNpUcDXZjs
20
FWIW
“Wuhan Flu: Discussion On Vaccines”
“You may find this conversation useful. I’ve set the video to start at the relevant topic (mRNA and DNA based vaccine technologies vs conventional platforms), though I found most of it entertaining.”
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2021/02/28/wuhan-flu-discussion-on-vaccines/
01
From Lock Down sceptics today;
“Here in Australia, this week’s data from the Bureau of Statistics, covering January 1st to November 24th, 2020, registers 126,974 deaths, against an average of 127,872 over the past five years. Interestingly, influenza and pneumonia deaths in that 2020 period numbered 1952, against the five-year average of 3097.
Should we attribute that decline to the use of masks and social distancing, as we are encouraged to do; or is it faintly possible the missing 1000 people who would normally have died of flu and pneumonia are the ones who succumbed to COVID when it first arrived? Did the virus simply tip those teetering on the verge of death into an earlier quarter?
We, of course, cut ourselves off from the world, so perhaps our figures are artificially low. So let’s consider the “nightmare scenario” playing out in Britain.
Last month the UK’s Office of National Statistics added its provisional 2020 figures to a series that goes back almost 200 years. It shows a rate of 1043.5 deaths per 100,000 population, ahead of 2019’s number of 925.
I would describe that rise with the COVID-appropriate word “unprecedented”, except the rate has been higher before, most recently in 2008, when I don’t believe the world shut down. Oh yes, and it was higher in every single year before 2008, right back to 1838, when the records begin.
So if the impact of deaths from COVID (and I think we all know by now we should be saying “with”, not “from”) is not as bad as it first appeared, why are British hospitals reported to be almost overflowing, at or near 90% occupancy? Unprecedented again, until you note the country’s National Health Service has the entirely reasonable efficiency goal of having fewer than 15% of beds lying vacant at any time.
Or might the fact that in the past 30 years Britain has reduced the number of hospital beds from 300,000 to 140,000, while adding 10 million to its population, shed some light on the situation?
Sweden, poster nation for personal freedom during the pandemic, and whipping boy for lockdown enthusiasts, has recorded a 2020 death rate that has not been matched in its history since — drum roll, please — 2015.”
91
Thanks, that’s illuminating.
A month back I tried to access relevant figures from the British data bank and got the strong feeling that they were trying to hide anything that would make comparison with the COVID19 year 20/21 with previous years almost impossible.
11
Kalm Keith
This is the office of National statistics from which you can download UK data.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2019to2020provisionaland2018to2019final
here is one more article derived from the stats
https://architectsforsocialhousing.co.uk/2021/01/27/lies-damned-lies-and-statistics-manufacturing-the-crisis/
10
Trump DNI Rick Grenell has put his hand up to run against Gavin Newsom.
There are enough signatures on the recall petition so maybe one of our American friends can explain how things work from here. I have no idea.
10
How does recalling a California governor actually work? Here’s the process
https://abc7news.com/gavin-newsom-recall-status-petition-sign-online-how-do-you-a-california-governor/10345112/
00
Its interesting that the process for verifying validity of recall votes is far more rigorous than that for Presidential votes.
20
Just received news of a new solar subsidy farm being proposed near the one at Winton in Victoriastan, locals were organising to fight the proposal using Facebook and all of a sudden the page disappeared.
61
RR
“locals were organising to fight the proposal using Facebook and all of a sudden the page disappeared.”
Just like the sun disappears. Strangely, that only happens at night.
Seems Facebook is intermittent my friend. Just like our green energy.
20
Dammed If They Do. British Columbia’s Site C Ironies.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/28/dammed-if-they-do-british-columbias-site-c-ironies/
20
Breaking from 2 days ago…
Global Green Energy Zombie Abengoa, Caught Cooking its Books in 2015 & Bailed Out Twice, Finally Runs Out of Bailouts, Files for Bankruptcy, 2nd Largest in Spanish History
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/02/25/global-green-energy-zombie-abengoa-caught-cooking-its-books-in-2015-bailed-out-twice-finally-runs-out-of-money-files-for-bankruptcy-2nd-largest-in-spanish-history/
10
Global Green Energy Zombie Abengoa, Caught Cooking its Books in 2015 & Bailed Out Twice, Finally Runs Out of Bailouts, Files for Bankruptcy, 2nd Largest in Spanish History
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/02/25/global-green-energy-zombie-abengoa-caught-cooking-its-books-in-2015-bailed-out-twice-finally-runs-out-of-money-files-for-bankruptcy-2nd-largest-in-spanish-history/
10
Top five energy bills to watch during Wyoming’s legislative session
https://www.kpvi.com/news/national_news/top-five-energy-bills-to-watch-during-wyomings-legislative-session/article_8b8e9c6d-0e84-57c8-ac07-9d97fa08a987.html
10
I saw David Honey speaking on behalf of the WA Libs on Outsiders today. The WA Libs are deluded.
1. He complains that Collie coal stations only operate half the time and are subsidised. No mention that this was CAUSED BY RENEWABLES.
2. Refused to cost anything.
3. Bragged about having a PhD, as though nobody with a PhD ever said anything stupid. Haha.
4. Claimed that when the sun doesn’t shine the wind always blows.
5. Diesel was part of the solution. That’s not a solution, that’s backup for unreliables.
My local candidate claims they want to run an aluminium plant on renewables. I asked if they understood how an aluminium plant works, if they knew what nearly happened in Victoria recently and explained that without baseload power the whole operation could be ruined. No idea. I said we needed more engineers in parliament because they were making decisions they don’t understand.
I want to know who has mates in the renewables industry.
40
Oh, and when asked for one place where renewables have reduced power prices, as Honey claims, he of course had NOTHING.
20
Watching it again. When asked for the cost of renewables to consumers he is literally hand waving. Bill Shorten was more convincing.
30
I’d love to see what Jo and David think about this!
30
We may never learn the truth about the Texas blackout
By David Wojick
https://www.cfact.org/2021/02/28/we-may-never-learn-the-truth-about-the-texas-blackout/
A central excerpt:
Normally a massive outage like this is explained by the engineers after an exhaustive investigation. After all, they have second-by-second or better records of most of it. This is the only way to determine precisely what happened, sequentially and causally. But these are not normal times. The problem is that these local energy issues involve one of the largest political and financial issues of our time, namely the use of renewables and the supposed threat of climate change.
On the financial side renewables are big business. More to the point, the utilities are making huge amounts of money building wind and solar facilities. The more they spend the more they make, as long as the regulators approve and they are pushing for renewables. For example, Xcel led the way several years ago and now they have proposed $8 billion in new capacity for Colorado.
I am sure that with all this revenue coming in the utility engineers have long been told by their management to keep quiet about the perils of intermittency. I see hints of it hidden away in the back pages of long reports, but that is about all. The engineers know that intermittent renewables are destabilizing.
On the political side renewables are one of Biden’s top priorities, as he calls for a quick end to fossil fuel use. He has also ordered all Federal agencies to push his climate agenda. His climate czar Mary Nichols even rushed out a video saying that wind power was not the cause of the Texas grid collapse.
This is important because the definitive investigation of the Texas catastrophe is by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) which is a federal entity under the direction of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Under the Biden/Nichols influence NERC may well greenwash the results of the study.
More in the article. Please share it.
David
21
Judith Curry has a new thread on the blackout.
https://judithcurry.com/2021/02/28/week-in-review-tx-edition/
10
Waiting for Trump at CPAC. How could such a popular man have been beaten honestly by one virtually no one likes?
51
Trump is even more popular than before by the look of that , he is wooing the crowd like I’ve never seen and love the crack about maybe he will even stick around for a third term .
31
President Trump’s CPAC speech was incredible! 🇺🇸
40
Coolest summer in nine years.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/the-la-nina-effect-australias-coolest-summer-in-nine-years/533569
20
Coolest summer due mainly to la Nina (which was also strong in 2011-12). I think that, on this website, we know that strong El Nino years mean hot & dry conditions in E Australia, whereas strong La Nina years mean cooler and more humid conditions. The climate in Australia is mainly driven by these phenonema (plus the IOD, when it wakes up). I am just waiting for the fools in the Church of Climatology to admit that this is the true force of “Climate Change” (unfortunately, I’ll be waiting quite a while).
30
ENSO is an enigma and the first person to unravel the mystery will get the accolades. That may take awhile, nevertheless I can forecast over the next five years there won’t be a sign of El Nino. How can I be so sure?
On the ground in south east Australia it should be cooler and wetter. There is nothing in the AGW models to explain what is about to happen, so the church of climatology is doomed because they didn’t model a la Nina epoch.
20