In the Bermuda Triangle of electricity bills, the more cheap generators you add, the higher your electricity bills grow
The experts at the CSIRO tell us that renewables are the cheapest sources of electricity, with all their Capex calculations and their levelised maths, and yet the electricity bills set the house on fire. (It’s Russia’s fault!) Could it be that the experts accidentally forgot to analyze the system cost and that all the hourly megawatt dollars per machine don’t mean a thing?
In the race to the most expensive electricity in the world, this week the UK is the winner. Germany is handicapped by being bundled into the EU27, lumbered with all the French nukes and is therefore not in the running. Australia is missing in action, but possibly only because the price rises were too fast and too much for the Eurostat, the US DoE, and IEA to keep up with, so they gave up.
And people wonder why China is the world’s manufacturing base.
In the next graph is the “rest of the world”. After 2021 Australian electricity prices are unmarked for some reason, but officially they rose 20% two years in a row. So that cost of €210 per MWh in 2021 could easily have become €300 by 2023, putting Australians second highest in the world after the UK.*
The bottom line is that from 2008 the price of electricity in China fell from €100 down to €80 per megawatt hour. While in Australia it rose from €125 to €300 and in the UK prices rose from €150 to €360. Effectively, the price of electricity fell 20% in China at the same time as it rose 240% in Australia and the UK.
If President Xi had wanted to run a campaign to sabotage our grids, he couldn’t have done it better.
By uncanny coincidence the percentage of wind and solar power penetration on each national grid pretty much predicts the order of the price graphs the EU collated. Among this pool, the nation with the highest penetration of wind and solar power is the UK which gets 29% of its electricity from wind and solar power. Australia is second at 26%, and the EU collective third at 22%. Turkey and Brazil get 16% of their power from the unreliable generators, the USA got 15%, China 14%, Japan 11%, India 9% and Russia 1%.
Japan’s electricity is more expensive than its modest unreliable-generator-percentage would suggest, but then they have virtually no oil, gas or coal to call their own, and no interconnectors to rescue them either.
Is 20% renewables the tipping point?
The three winners of the Highest Price Electricity race are all states with renewable penetration above 20%.
The whole grid can absorb the penetration of unreliable energy up to a point, but there comes a time when adding more random energy generators is a burden too far. The system costs start to breed like Ebola, as the good generators get euthanized, storage costs get out of hand, frequency stability becomes an issue, and everyone wants their own personal interconnector. Then word spreads that the bird killing, bat destroying and whale shredding equipment is noisy, ugly and a fire risk, and before you know it, farmers need 100 times the money to make the high voltage towers bearable. It all just adds to the cost. And finally everyone realizes that the environment you were supposed to be protecting is being clubbed by a windmill, and Florence the borer is stuck in tunnel.
Smaller grids or countries without interconnectors will hit that tipping point faster. Watch this space, world. There is no nation over the border to rescue the Australian grid.
* Estimating the unlisted Australian price leap: the ACCC here found domestic retail bills jumped from $1400 annually to $2000 in NSW, and $1200 to $1600 in Victoria. (p66). In Australia the retail electricity rates now roughly average 33c per kilowatt hour, with a range of 26-45c/KWh (AUD). But that useage cost doesn’t include all the charges. As Craig Kelly points out the €250/MWh European rate is effectively 25 euro-¢/kWh. But the official “Default offer” in South Australia is $0.68 kWh (or 41 euro-¢/KWh). In NSW it is $0.53 – $0.56 kWH (32-34 euro-¢) and in Queensland it is $0.50 kWH (30 euro-¢). So Australia really is more expensive than the crazy-land EU. And while traditionally few customers paid the “default offer”, in 2023 as many as 40% of customers on flat rate plans were paying that rate, according to the ACCC (p47).
h/t to Schroder, thank you, and @CraigKellyPHON.
REFERENCES
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy, Smith, M., Jagtenberg, H., Lam, L. et al., Study on energy prices and costs – Evaluating impacts on households and industry – 2023 edition, Publications Office of the European Union, 2024, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2833/782494
Or https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/3b43f47c-e1c5-11ee-8b2b-01aa75ed71a1/language-en/format-PDF/source-316287713
Inquiry into the National Electricity Market: December 2023 Report, ACCC, Australia, December 2023.
We’ll be right.
They won’t be able to run us out of petrol for our cars because there won’t be enough electricity to run EVs. So our cars can be the personal generator from where to run the fridge in the boot, charge the phones, watch telly in the back seat, and run heating for a good night sleep (reclining in the front and lying flat a la China in the back- everyone has a turn) for three. Good help the Catholics, and Muslims, they’ll need an extra one or two cars. A travelling kettle for the hot water bottles and cups of tea. Portable camping showers will be available cheapish, or have a quick warm shower at the community centre when your rostered day, and 15 minutes allotment, arrives.
A camping washing machine and clothesline. Cooking? No need ! Walk to the local community kitchen to pick up a few stews and some fruit (or eat there). On cold and rainy days, the community kitchen would of course have vans circulating the neighbourhood dropping off a hot meal, and some cappuchino (if your social credits allow).
We’ll get by.
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Australia is run by Loony Politicians Labor/Greens/TEALS/Liberals at all levels of Government – Local, State, Federal and none of them have ever started or run a business
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“Shleeper Electrishity” – “I am a man of my word”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12463665/Anthony-Albanese-promised-cut-power-bill-AEMO-predicts-price-rises-five-years.html
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But the average house spend around $10k per year on groceries based on 2013 data and it’s all gone up HOW much since then?
Cutting your bills to what they’ll be next year.😉
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“In Australia the retail electricity rates now roughly average 33c per kilowatt hour, with a range of 26-45c/KWh (AUD).”
Here in Montana, USA our rates taken from today’s Flathead Electric Cooperative Website:
Energy Charge: $0.1364 U.S Dollar per kWh or $20.98 Aussie Dollar
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Reading this article is a vivid reminder that power generation is a minefield. We are constantly bombarded with promises of better things that never happen. The real story as reported by Jo is we are in no mans land as far as future reliable power is concerned. One huge question remains for many of us is the use of nuclear power. Why is Australia so childishly frightened of this highly efficient power source, To use the accident in Ukraine or Japan as an excuse is like saying the Titanic sank and we should never sail again or if a disaster happens with plane crashes no one should ever fly again. The rush for someone powerful’s thought bubble on Net Zero is astounding. To destroy the environment, slaughter of birdlife, bats and now whales for the sake of someones strange plan leaves many of us stunned. Our governments seems like lapdogs to the programme, CSIRO and BoM all seem hell bent on following the lemmings over the cliff.
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The CSIRO and BOM are just other examples of extensive corruption in the Australian Public Service.
These corrupt public serpents are masters of telling gullible politicians what they want to hear – lying has been engrained into the culture of these organisations
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Sycophants, the lot of ’em.
via a NZ weather site last week:
“El Niño has come to an official end according to scientists at the Bureau of Meteorology – the climate experts across Australasia.”
They’re claiming all Australasia now? Unless, ’twas tongue-in-cheek [tic] snidely humour, a gentle prod in the rib-cage by fellow meteorologists?
sycophant: parasite, yes-man, toady, informer.
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Kiwiland was once part of New South Wales
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The call on El Niño was wrong, so it’s better to share a bad prediction than take sole responsibility for it. If you were to get arrested at a crime scene, it’s better to also have your accomplice arrested- that way the charge is divided between two parties rather than you copping all the blame
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Australia isn’t scared of nuclear. The reason we don’t have it is we have far too much coal, so no one could be bothered. A few Greens got uppity and it was easy to appease them.
With virtually no public discussion about nuclear power, polls show more than half of Australians are fine with it.
But mock those laws about nuclear power. They deserve it.
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A new wind factory has been proposed a few kilometres from where I live. It appears that this “wind factory” was not government initiated but rather an “Australian” company approached the government with the idea that it could build this facility in the Strathbogie Ranges.
All up front and open?
Well, it appears that the “Australian company” is in fact an overseas company that just simply set up a company in Australia. Neat eh? It would also appear that the proposed site may well be within the boundaries of a suggested new national park. Wow, talk about a conflict of ideologies, altho either one would have the magic ability to save the other at any give “discussion”.
Interesting times indeed. At this time it appears that local communities are not to keen to have either proposal go ahead but with all the votes in the area not adding up to any single city electorate the powers that be will not take much notice of the people that have to carry the burden.
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The locals are definitely not pleased with the proposed transmission lines. I went to some of the meetings and I believe the company is Italian. We have our own name for the company as our daughter and some friends are affected. The proposal includes having an environmental assessment, for all of 6 months…big deal. We came away with a definite sense that, despite ‘consultations’, the locals would be ridden over roughshod, willy nilly and the company use government to force it through. Recent statements re. planning by Vic gov. would seem to suggest this was already planned. The company representative who came to the meetings seemed very certain it would all happen. The area concerned is beautiful and will be monstrously damaged if the infrastructure is forced onto it.
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Hi Annie, Just home from the community meeting at Marysville on the proposed “great forest national park”. I, along with everyone else there thought it was going to be a “presentation” it was however just asking for community input as to what should happen to the central highlands now that logging has been terminated. So could all interested parties just put a sticky note on the part of the map that you are intersted in and list your activities. Hmmmm. Was advised by the facilitator that a committee comprising government and special interest groups would eventually decide what would happen to this current public land. One of the interest groups was the local traditional owners.
I immediately asked if I and my friends could join the committee as we certainly were a “special interest-group” told NO the positions were filled. I asked why are traditional owners involved when it is a widely accepted fact that Australian aborigines did not recognise “ownership” of anything rather communal or group possession i.e. whats your is mine.
Facilitator then suggested a better word would be “custodians” as after all they have been here for 65 thousand years. I pointed out that the whole of humanity has been around since the dawn of time. Someone has been everywhere since man first appeared, here there and every other everywhere . I may have won the point but I bet I and every one else in the central highlands will not win the war. Every person I spoke to was of the opinion that this consultation was a white wash. The decision has already been made and when the area is locked up to all but an excusive few and the public announcements made, the claim will be “after considerable public consultation”. The whole process to be finalised by June and made public by the end of July.
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It’s heart breaking to read that.
Democratic principles, care for the environment, honesty and integrity : all dismissed in one fell swoop.
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The claim that wind and solar is the cheapest form of electricity is an obvious lie, but it is repeated endlessly and so many people believe it.
The undeniable fact is that the more we get, the more expensive electricity becomes.
And it’s even more expensive than its upfront cost because it’s built into everything we buy.
Just to name one example, even for day to day living expenses such as food, a large amount of the running costs of a supermarket is electricity due to all the refrigeration. It is built into those prices, not to mention the cost of all the products they sell.
Inexpensive, available electricity and other forms of energy is a fundamental input into any modern economy.
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The Michael Mann Hockey Stick graph was accurate after all. It was just applied to the wrong metric.
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This is a terrific summary by Jo. I hope some of our politicians read it.
Not only are wind and solar not cheap, the horribly contrived ‘energy markets’ ensure that the price of conventional generation is pushed through the roof too, by creatign great inefficiencies.
The Australian Energy Market Operator(AEMO) makes this claim on the front page of its website :
At AEMO, we manage electricity and gas systems and markets across Australia, helping to ensure Australians have access to affordable, secure and reliable energy.
However, the National Electricity Market (NEM) is not so much a market, but an elaborately contrived short term bidding system designed to favour renewables and to negate the cheap efficiency of traditional generators.
A marketplace is usually a very simple structure, with very simple rules. The elaborate structure of the NEM rules clearly exposes an agenda which does not favour delivery of cheap power to consumers: In fact, it takes a 32 page document to detail how it actually works:
https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/content/c196404a-e850-46bd-8ae2-41600f8454bb/Professor-George-Yarrow-and-Dr-Chris-Decker-%28RPI%29-Bidding-in-energy-only-wholesale-electricity-markets-Final-report.PDF
Some details from the paper:
– Generators are required to submit initial price/quantity offers for each thirty-minute trading interval in up to ten price bands by 12.30pm the day before the settlement day, which starts at 04.00am.
– Re-bids may be submitted up until the start of the relevant five-minute dispatch interval by re-allocating offered volumes within the nominated price bands.
– AEMO periodically publishes aggregated information to inform participants’ decisionmaking including 30 minute and 5 minute pre-dispatch schedules detailing expected demand and prices, together with (to each generator on an individual basis) details of the expected level of generation.
– AEMO also publishes following-day information about final bids and re-bids used for dispatch purposes.
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These lying clowns that keep telling us how cheap unreliables are, do they know to add in the cost of backup, grid stabilisation, 10,000 km cable runs etc, etc.
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They know that battery back-up for unreliable wind and solar only grids for Australia would cost around A$6 to A$10 Trillion Dollars – so they just avoid the back-up elephnat in the room.
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Can only wish for a 2000 dollar annual electricity bill. Last qtr cost me 1100 for 2 people….work that out🤡
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There is an upside Craig. I have a 6.6 kW system and when the price for electricity goes up I save more. When I first installed it I saved about $800 a year and would pay off the system in 8 years. At the current rate I saved $600 last quarter, $706 in November, $545 in August and $490 last May. $2341 for 12 months so the payback period is now under 3 years. Thank you Chris Bowen, CSIRO, carpetbaggers everywhere and assorted ignorant/arrogant politicians. I should add that I still pay over $2000 per year to Origin electricity. $598.6 of that is the daily access charge for the privilege of having grid electricity. Apparently that covers the cost of transmission lines. In 2006 I was an irrigator in the Hunter Valley paying 1 cent per day access fee and 5.9 cents per kWh for electricity. Thank you John Howard and the REC scheme and RET allowing wind and solar on the grid.
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I often here proponents of domestic solar say that it has dramatically lowered their bills because it is so “cheap”.
But in cases where that is true it is only because grid electricity has become so expensive.
At free market prices, solar couldn’t possibly compete with the cost of grid electricity in any normal situation
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*hear not here.
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I answered Craig before I read your comment but what I had to say proves your point.
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Spoke with a person who was an advocate for both wind and solar. Interesting view point. This person could already see windmills from their house and thought they “looked beautiful” and was most impressed by the HUGE solar array at Winton. When questioned about the unreliability of both systems the answer was a repeat of one I have heard many times. “the scientists” just need to come up with a better battery system then everything will be fine.
Cant convince people that batteries are a net consumer of electricity, and not a very efficient method of storeage what so ever. Its always some one else problem to fix and of course costs, both financial and environmental, are never talked about.
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Battery technology has made some major advances – however it is far cheaper to store the energy required to make electricity before it is need that to store electricity after it has been produced for later need.
40
Propaganda that would make Joseph Goebbels blush.
How does a windfarm power 240,000 homes when the wind is not blowing (or if there is a cyclone where the wind is blowing too much for ther safe operation of the turbines)?
The 400 megawatt Mount Hopeful Wind Farm – more environmental vandalism
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/new-windfarm-central-queensland-power-240000-homes
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We will all have to be off grid eventually, because there won’t be enough on grid to go around.
So many technical illiterates in our parliaments!
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What do you mean, technically illiterate?
Here (link) is Australia’s Chief Engineer and PM Albanese exposing how solar panels will work at night to charge your EV for free.
He is an engineering genius, along with the anti-Energy Minister Chrissy Bowen.
In Australia we are so fortunate to have these politician-engineers making major engineering decisions for us, every day, that affect our future.
/sarc
https://youtu.be/vyS9uqRLbB8
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That’s up there with what Bowen said shortly after he became Energy Minister. He said “The sun is always shining somewhere in Australia.”
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Australia is roughly 40 degrees of longitude from East to West. That is under three hours of time difference. Is Bowen claiming that the longest night in Australia is shorter than three hours? He is an ignorant, innumerate, idiot. And those are his good points.
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In case you wonder how all this madness starts, here is a relevant quote from Bertrand Russell that more or less fits the anthropogenic global warming fraud.
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Many younger brainwashed people (including so-called “journalists”) are not aware that back in the day, a major economic competitive advantage of Australia was some of the world’s cheapest electricity and other energy. (Now it’s among the most expensive and unsustainable for both industry and domestic consumers.)
That is, until Howard and the fake conservative Liberal Party set us on the road to economic destruction with unreliable energy (allowing non-dispatchable generators to connect to the grid); selling off much of our gas supply to the Chicomms at world’s cheapest prices on a bizarre 30 yr contract with no provision for inflation or market price*; plus banned nuclear power twice**.
Of course, the Labor faction of the Uniparty continued the destructive work of their Liberal comrades.
*https://amp.smh.com.au/opinion/how-australia-blew-its-future-gas-supplies-20170928-gyqg0f.html
**First halting the building of a reactor in Jervis Bay, already underway in 1971, (Liberals, not Howard); then Howard banning nuclear power by law in 1998.
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Howard had no problem with the French atomic bombe testing upwind of Australia, in the Pacific.
That really had an impact: before that I’d perceived him as a quiet, reasonable person.
Now there’s this other stuff, evil.
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Another lie is that the Kanberra Klowns delude themselves into “thinking” (sic) that their fiefdom is running on 100% “green” (sic) energy.
That is a disingenuous accounting trick.
If it were truly running on “green” it could disconnect from the national grid, maintaining connections only to isolated wind, solar and battery subsidy farms.
Of course, it couldn’t do this. The politicians and public serpents wouldn’t tolerate the lights going out or being hot or cold.
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David, do the Canberrans claim that their power is generated within ACT borders?
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I don’t know Forrest, but it doesn’t make any difference. The only thing that matters is if the “renewables” from which they claim to derive power and the Kanberra grid operate in isolation or not.
The Flinders and King Island experiments prove that wind, solar and Big Batteries can’t even run a small community.
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Just to follow up. Their ABC published https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-01/act-is-100-per-cent-renewable-but-what-does-that-mean/11560356
Quote: “Only about five per cent of the territory’s electricity is generated within its borders, by a few solar farms and rooftop panels on Canberra homes.”
And yes, disingenuous accounting trick is very apt, even as described by their ABC.
Meanwhile King Island is on 86% diesel power as we speak. https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
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In a way “Green” energy is a fact. They sure as hell can’t run the country solely on Lib/Lab energy! In Tasmania it’s Jaquie Lambie energy which seems to be inexhaustible. At least she’s keeping the Greens at bay!
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It’s the big ‘electron filter’ on the ACT border, only lets in green electrons.
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We seem to forget that electricity is only a part of the world’s TOTAL energy consumption.
Here’s the graphs for some countries and the World’s TOTAL energy and check out the graph since 1990 and then tell us how that energy use will decline to 1990 levels by 2040 or 2070 or 2100?
Can anyone or any so called Scientist tell us how that could be reduced at all?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-energy-cons?tab=chart&country=OWID_AFR~AUS~CHN~FRA~DEU~IND~Non-OECD+%28EIA%29~OECD+%28EIA%29~GBR~USA~OWID_WRL
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BTW just to add to the ENERGY increases required by 2040, 2070 and 2100 etc.
The global population will reach 10.3 billion by 2070 and stay at that level until 2100.
Does anyone still BELIEVE in their TOTAL ENERGY REDUCTION DELUSIONS?
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/world/population
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China uses 26.65 times the power we use. I has 50 times our population although we believe at least half its population is still living a subsistence lifestyle and uses little or no energy other than their own bodies. If that is true then China uses about the same energy per person as we do but they must use it far more efficiently or effectively than we do. Judging from its powering ahead in the engineering and defence sectors they are far more efficient.
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Yet we get this from AEMO: Cheaper renewable energy driving electricity costs down
“Renewable energy generation drove down wholesale prices in the first three months of 2024 despite higher temperatures pushing up electricity demand, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) quarterly report released on Tuesday.”
Of course they are only referring to ex-generator wholesale costs, not end consumer costs.
For the last 4 financial years, AENO reports Vic wholesale prices as $46, $91, $100, $45/MWh.
However, the current maximum residential electricity prices set by the Essential Services Commission for Victoria are $1.0814/day and $0.3174/kWh
In 2021 those rates were $0.98/day and $0.24/kWh.
Where’s the $275 reduction in my electricity bill Minister Bowen?
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A totally Orwellian lie.
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I heard this on the radio this morning. First story on the national news. Goebbles would be proud.
I thought, FFS. Clearly our bills are going up, as are business’ bills and energy intensive businesses are going broke.
The AEMO is being deceptive. There might be some reduction in wholesale “at the generator’ costs but by the time you add in firming and transmission (both of which seem to me to be every increasing), there is no relief whatsoever. Only every increasing bills.
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“Renewable energy generation drove down wholesale prices in the first three months of 2024 despite higher temperatures pushing up electricity demand, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) quarterly report released on Tuesday.”
It’s all those poles and wires, you know, the ones that have been in your street for 70 odd years.
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It is the hidden capital maintenance/replacement costs for panels and windmills. Proponents can lie by omission in the planning stages, but once the things are built, the owners must price for maintenance and replacement costs because they don’t have the luxury of ignoring once they are built.
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Also the transmission line costs which I believe are normally excluded from costings. Also, associated battery backup, if any.
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Jo could have stopped at
“the Bermuda Triangle of electricity bills”; a great analogy for what’s happening.
Money, wealth, savings, taxes is being dumped wholesale into the equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle with no question from anyone in authority.
Nobody bats an eyelid as our wealth disappears into the Renewables Triangle before it is redistributed into the hands of the Bermuda Manipulators on the other side of the equator.
Gender compliance is evidenced in the solar harvesting equipment, with the panels receiving passively through the day and those massive turbines pumping voltamps where aroused from rest by a gust of wind.
And down we go, into the unknowable depths of the Bermuda RenTrangle.
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Now while this is my ‘blah blah blah’ hobby horse, it also goes straight to the heart of electricity costs.
Wind generation here in Australia has a Nameplate of 11,409MW. There are 84 of these Industrial wind plants, with (around) 3800 individual turbines. That’s EIGHTY FOUR of them.
The black coal fired pant at Bayswater is a single plant with four Units and a Nameplate of 2640MW.
So wind generation has 4.32 times the Nameplate.
So, just in this last week alone, all that wind generation delivered 373GWH of energy to the grid. That was at a Capacity Factor (CF) of just 19.5%. That’s not at one point in time, it’s across a whole WEEK.
Just Bayswater alone (an almost 40 year old ‘clunker’) delivered 320GWH to that same grid at a CF of 72%.
So, a form of power generation which is ‘the future’ of power generation here in Oz can barely manage to deliver more energy to the grid across a whole week, with more than four times the Nameplate of an ancient plant.
The cost of the generated energy goes toward paying for everything associated with both forms of power generation.
84 Industrial wind plants ….. one (paid off long ago) Coal fired plant with 4 Units. 84 wind plants with 25 years age at the absolute best, and one coal fired plant already 15 years older than the best case for wind generation.
All forms of power generation get paid the same amount per Unit (MWH) of energy they deliver, depending on the time it is being delivered, so that ‘income’ has to pay everything associated with each method of that power generation.
It’s hard to even imagine the cost of 84 wind plants. (Macarthur Wind with a Nameplate of 420MW cost $1.2 Billion alone)
When ALL of that Wind generation can only just deliver a tick more energy than ONE ancient old clunker, please tell me again how cheap renewable power really is.
Incidentally, Macarthur Wind has a lifetime (12 years now) CF of just 22.5%.
If anything on the market performed as badly as Wind generation, I fell pretty sure some stern questions would be asked, but when it comes to wind power, it’s ….. “Hey, look over there!”
Tony.
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Thanks again Tony, but where in Aussie land are the best sites for W & S?
Seems they are so lousy at delivering even 30% or 15% CFs that any SANE pollie or so called Scientist or the MSM or average voter etc should be getting really hot under the collar by now?
But alas many more billions of $ will have to be lost and perhaps another 34 years WASTED until most Aussies even BEGIN to WAKE UP?
I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but it’s hard to be more optimistic.
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I read one site in WA had a 50% capacity factor. Owned by Alinta. Yandin. The area is known for wind surfing, kiteboarding, and wing foiling sports. It is a windy area 150km – 400 km north of Perth.
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Thanks Jo and I also note that the roaring 40s are supposed to be excellent between Tassie and Victoria, but King island often misses out for annoying periods of time. But thanks again for the link.
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Neville,
It was thought that, you know, The Roaring Forties coming across The Great Australian Bight was such a wonderful resource, so let’s build as many of them where that is going to provide such wonderful wind power generation.
So that’s what they did. They built them in the South East of South Australia, and in Central Western Victoria.
So, of Australia’s total Nameplate of 11,409MW from those 84 Industrial wind plants, they constructed 56 of them in this one area alone, with a total Nameplate of 7067MW. That’s 62% of all the wind generation in Australia.
However, and this might seem like a pretty big blunder, that’s the same area where those huge High Pressure Weather Systems move across on a very regular basis.
As those systems move across that area, there is a difference in pressure, and you see a lot of Isobars really close together, and that is when the wind is at its highest, hence higher wind power generation.
However, those large (sometimes huge in fact) High Pressure systems just hover over that area, covering it completely, sometimes for days in fact, and the vast centre of those systems are all the same pressure.
Hence, no Isobars, hence no wind, hence no power generation, and also in fact, when those Isobars are really close, hence high wind, well, too much wind in fact, and the turbines, and whole wind plants shut down so the blades are not destroyed, and I also detail this as well.
Now, you may think, (as in fact, some have at wind supporter sites) that I have just ….. made all the above up.
So, back in December of 2020, I made a series of three long Posts detailing exactly all of this.
Those wind plants just sit idle , nothing out. (sort of reminds me of Ozymandias really)
When you have an Australia wide CF of only 30%, you can see why it’s low, when two thirds of all the wind generation is just sitting there, stationary.
You can see as it happens, as shown in the charts and images I included with those Posts.
It’s a long read, but it’s the cold hard facts.
I wasn’t the first to detail this as Paul Miskelly detailed it also a decade or so before me. My work is basically the same as his, just updated, and that I had so many more wind plants to work with. When I did my own work, I wasn’t even aware that Paul had done it earlier and in fact a reviewed paper on it, warning of it, and then ignored basically.
What I cannot figure, for the life of me, is why no one really even considered it before they spent Billions and Billions of dollars on these wind plants.
Link to Post with the information, and there are two further Posts linked to at the bottom of that article.
You can’t make this stuff up ….. but apparently, I am, they say!!!!!
Tony.
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Thanks for your interesting reply Tony and I’ll have to read your link.
I wish I had your stamina and your maths skills but I try to do my best with what I have and I’ll try to keep up.
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always love reading your contributions Tony
00
You have to wonder what Australia’s pricing would be if the cash theft from our electricity accounts stopped tomorrow.
Coal and gas would roar and wind would be wiped out because they cannot compete.
Wind and solar, instead of being supplier of first resort, would be last.
times. And they would not get paid for random output, as they do currently, even if the electricity is unsold. In fact they get paid twice most times. Once when they generate in Green cashable certificates and again when they actually sell the stuff. But they always get paid at least once, just for existing.
Coal would run hard at 100% day and night and wind and solar would be almost ignored. It’s far cheaper to run coal on a steady load.
Electricity prices could drop at least to half. And the % of wind would drop to nothing. The players would get out. After all their ‘farms’ have a limited lifespan of 20 years and that’s half gone.
Wind is not competitive with reliable, unlimited, commandable, cheap and free coal and gas. For us in Australia, as free as the wind and sun.
We are exporting the coal and LPG when we are not allowed use them ourselves. Or if we do, we have to give cash to the wind and solar people anyway.
Our electricity prices are utterly artificial. As our petrol prices were for generations when Austrlia was fully self sufficient in petrol and we still paid Sinapore prices. The government and petrol companies trousered the difference.
As for a fantasy Renewables Super power. We are already a carbon superpower, like Saudi Arabia. Except in the minds of our government officials and politicians who have a political agenda and the welfare of Australians comes dead last. And the aim of the Safeguard Mechanism Act 2023 is to shut Australia down completely. We should not be making anything, just waiting for the Chinese goods and cash to arrive, carbon cargo culting.
And Australian Made is a smokescreen where if there is any manufacturing, it is controlled by the Australian government, like all good communists, they want to control the means of production. What do you expect when the Prime Minister Albanese and his partner Adam Bandt are both openly communists?
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What did Trotsky mean by permanent revolution?
In this sense, the revolution would be made permanent. Trotsky believed that a new workers’ state would not be able to hold out against the pressures of a hostile capitalist world unless socialist revolutions quickly took hold in other countries as well.
And Bandt’s hero is Lenin. We tell them what they want to hear and when we get power, we do what we want.
Damn those elections.
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“Coal and gas would roar and wind would be wiped out because they cannot compete.”
If wind and solar were fined every time they dropped off the grid, we would have coal and gas back for good.
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And solar is a very bad joke on humanity. It has its uses, but not to power society. Mobile phones maybe. And black plastic tubes would be better and far cheaper for heating swimming pools in cold climates. Or heat pumps from the soil. After all, there is no significant global warming or heating pools would not be needed.
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A solar farm to power Victoria would cover half of Victoria. Apart from the incredible cost, Victoria would be half the size and where would the people, the animals, the trees, birds, the rabbits live? And that’s without the little problem of nighttime for which there is no solution. Solar intensity is just too little for a modern world.
But we are not talking about the real problem. CO2 is not a problem. Running out is the real problem.
Every year we humans burn through a million years of fossil fuel and it’s not slowing down, it’s accelerating.
And neither wind nor solar is even a medium term solution, say twenty years.
As the world runs out, they will all come for our coal and gas. Our solutions to likely invasion are zero. I doubt we can rely on First Nations for protection against real invasion.
At present all the big players are in Venezuela, which has been reduced to a shell. Russia, China, everyone is there. Except Western democracies.
While we are told to keep our resources in the ground, that is foolish beyond belief. It guarantees invasion.
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Of course the ‘experts’ can safely make that statement. The phrase cheapest sources is a con. That’s because, as most of us know too well, the switcheroo that inevitably follows the con is the outlandish prices we’re paying for our electricity due to the ‘value adding’ to those electrons on their circuitous path from those cheap sources to our homes. As to value adding, again most of us also know that the government endorsed greedy power company cartels account for a questionably large proportion of that value adding which is factored in as unconcionable profit margin.
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Sun is free. Wind is free. But they are very intermittent and the infrastructure has to be built from scratch, including individual transmission lines for every site. All of Australia’s coal power stations fit in 400 acres.
Coal is also free. And commandable.
Both coal and gas are cheap right now. Zero cost, if the government stops blowing up power stations and banning gas.
Power stations unlike windmills do not wear out. They are infinitely maintainable, on the ground with only one transmission line which is already there. All that infrastructure has to be built for wind and solar, so why are they blowing up working power stations?
Why is the CSIRO supporting blowing up working power generation? Do the scientists really believe it all? Or are they all just public servants agreeing to keep their jobs? Certainly they could not get a job anywhere else and they know it. At least not one with morning tea every day. It’s an early retirement home, a sheltered workshop for the unemployable.
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At the start to summer, we get the pleas to’ adjust your a/c up a bit to save the grid, so how can we convert to EVs and still have a functioning grid.
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RUDD CLAIMED WARMING POLICIES WOULD COST US JUST “$1 PER YEAR”
An excellent example of how the thin edge of the wedge works.
Your social credit score is heading down the same path in a cashless society with digital I.D. and “misinformation” laws.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/rudd-claimed-warming-policies-would-cost-just-1-per-day/news-story/ef58777eeb2194b3681335d681ad563a
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Here’s the OWI Data Energy pie chart for all of of our global energy and GHG emissions from each sector.
https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector
“Energy (electricity, heat, and transport): 73.2%
Energy use in industry: 24.2%
“Iron and Steel (7.2%): energy-related emissions from the manufacturing of iron and steel.
“Chemical & petrochemical (3.6%): energy-related emissions from the manufacturing of fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, refrigerants, oil and gas extraction, etc.
“Food and tobacco (1%): energy-related emissions from the manufacturing of tobacco products and food processing (the conversion of raw agricultural products into their final products, such as the conversion of wheat into bread).
“Non-ferrous metals: 0.7%: Non-ferrous metals are metals which contain very little iron: this includes aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, titanium and zinc, and alloys such as brass. The manufacturing of these metals requires energy which results in emissions.
“Paper & pulp (0.6%): energy-related emissions from the conversion of wood into paper and pulp.
“Machinery (0.5%): energy-related emissions from the production of machinery”.
“Other industry (10.6%): energy-related emissions from manufacturing in other industries including mining and quarrying, construction, textiles, wood products, and transport equipment (such as car manufacturing).
Transport: 16.2%
“This includes a small amount of electricity (indirect emissions) as well as all direct emissions from burning fossil fuels to power transport activities. These figures do not include emissions from the manufacturing of motor vehicles or other transport equipment – this is included in the previous point ‘Energy use in Industry’.
“Road transport (11.9%): emissions from the burning of petrol and diesel from all forms of road transport which includes cars, trucks, lorries, motorcycles and buses. Sixty percent of road transport emissions come from passenger travel (cars, motorcycles, and buses); and the remaining forty percent is from road freight (lorries and trucks). This means that, if we could electrify the whole road transport sector, and transition to a fully decarbonized electricity mix, we could feasibly reduce global emissions by 11.9%.
“Aviation (1.9%): emissions from passenger travel and freight, and domestic and international aviation. 81% of aviation emissions come from passenger travel, and 19% from freight.5 From passenger aviation, 60% of emissions come from international travel, and 40% from domestic.
“Shipping (1.7%): emissions from the burning of petrol or diesel on boats. This includes both passenger and freight maritime trips.
“Rail (0.4%): emissions from passenger and freight rail travel.
“Pipeline (0.3%): fuels and commodities (e.g. oil, gas, water or steam) often need to be transported (either within or between countries) via pipelines. This requires energy inputs, which results in emissions. Poorly constructed pipelines can also leak, leading to direct emissions of methane to the atmosphere – however, this aspect is captured in the category ‘Fugitive emissions from energy production’.
Energy use in buildings: 17.5%
“Residential buildings (10.9%): energy-related emissions from the generation of electricity for lighting, appliances, cooking, etc., and heating at home.
“Commercial buildings (6.6%): energy-related emissions from the generation of electricity for lighting, appliances, etc., and heating in commercial buildings such as offices, restaurants, and shops.
Unallocated fuel combustion (7.8%)
“Energy-related emissions from the production of energy from other fuels including electricity and heat from biomass; on-site heat sources; combined heat and power (CHP); nuclear industry; and pumped hydroelectric storage.
Fugitive emissions from energy production: 5.8%
“Fugitive emissions from oil and gas (3.9%): fugitive emissions are the often-accidental leakage of methane to the atmosphere during oil and gas extraction and transportation, from damaged or poorly maintained pipes. This also includes flaring – the intentional burning of gas at oil facilities. Oil wells can release gases, including methane, during extraction – producers often don’t have an existing network of pipelines to transport it, or it wouldn’t make economic sense to provide the infrastructure needed to effectively capture and transport it. But under environmental regulations they need to deal with it somehow: intentionally burning it is often a cheap way to do so”.
“Fugitive emissions from coal (1.9%): fugitive emissions are the accidental leakage of methane during coal mining.
Energy use in agriculture and fishing (1.7%)
“Energy-related emissions from the use of machinery in agriculture and fishing, such as fuel for farm machinery and fishing vessels.
Direct Industrial Processes: 5.2%
“Cement (3%): carbon dioxide is produced as a byproduct of a chemical conversion process used in the production of clinker, a component of cement. In this reaction, limestone (CaCO3) is converted to lime (CaO), and produces CO2 as a byproduct. Cement production also produces emissions from energy inputs – these related emissions are included in ‘Energy Use in Industry’”.
“Chemicals & petrochemicals (2.2%): greenhouse gases can be produced as a byproduct from chemical processes – for example, CO2 can be emitted during the production of ammonia, which is used for purifying water supplies, cleaning products, and as a refrigerant, and used in the production of many materials, including plastic, fertilizers, pesticides, and textiles. Chemical and petrochemical manufacturing also produces emissions from energy inputs – these related emissions are included in ‘Energy Use in Industry’.
Waste: 3.2%”
“Wastewater (1.3%): organic matter and residues from animals, plants, humans and their waste products can collect in wastewater systems. When this organic matter decomposes it produces methane and nitrous oxide”.
“Landfills (1.9%): landfills are often low-oxygen environments. In these environments, organic matter is converted to methane when it decomposes.
Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use: 18.4%
“Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use directly accounts for 18.4% of greenhouse gas emissions. The food system as a whole – including refrigeration, food processing, packaging, and transport – accounts for around one-quarter of greenhouse gas emissions. We look at this in detail in our article on the greenhouse gas emissions of food production”.
“Grassland (0.1%): when grassland becomes degraded, these soils can lose carbon, converting to carbon dioxide in the process. Conversely, when grassland is restored (for example, from cropland), carbon can be sequestered. Emissions here therefore refer to the net balance of these carbon losses and gains from grassland biomass and soils”.
“Cropland (1.4%): depending on the management practices used on croplands, carbon can be lost or sequestered into soils and biomass. This affects the balance of carbon dioxide emissions: CO2 can be emitted when croplands are degraded, or sequestered when they are restored. The net change in carbon stocks is captured in emissions of carbon dioxide. This does not include grazing lands for livestock”.
“Deforestation (2.2%): net emissions of carbon dioxide from changes in forestry cover. This means reforestation is counted as ‘negative emissions’ and deforestation as ‘positive emissions’. Net forestry change is therefore the difference between forestry loss and gain. Emissions are based on lost carbon stores from forests and changes in carbon stores in forest soils”.
“Crop burning (3.5%): the burning of agricultural residues – leftover vegetation from crops such as rice, wheat, sugar cane, and other crops – releases carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane. Farmers often burn crop residues after harvest to prepare land for the resowing of crops”.
“Rice cultivation (1.3%): flooded paddy fields produce methane through a process called ‘anaerobic digestion’. Organic matter in the soil is converted to methane due to the low-oxygen environment of water-logged rice fields. 1.3% seems substantial, but it’s important to put this into context: rice accounts for around one-fifth of the world’s supply of calories and is a staple crop for billions of people globally.”6
“Agricultural soils (4.1%): Nitrous oxide – a strong greenhouse gas – is produced when synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are applied to soils. This includes emissions from agricultural soils for all agricultural products – including food for direct human consumption, animal feed, biofuels, and other non-food crops (such as tobacco and cotton)”.
“Livestock & manure (5.8%): animals (mainly ruminants, such as cattle and sheep) produce greenhouse gases through a process called ‘enteric fermentation’ – when microbes in their digestive systems break down food, they produce methane as a by-product. This means beef and lamb tend to have a high carbon footprint, and eating less is an effective way to reduce the emissions of your diet”.
“Nitrous oxide and methane can be produced from the decomposition of animal manures under low oxygen conditions. This often occurs when large numbers of animals are managed in a confined area (such as dairy farms, beef feedlots, and swine and poultry farms), where manure is typically stored in large piles or disposed of in lagoons and other types of manure management systems ‘Livestock’ emissions here include direct emissions from livestock only – they do not consider impacts of land use change for pasture or animal feed”.
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This sankey diagram shows that less than 50% of fossil fuel usage is to make electricity
https://www.sankey-diagrams.com/primary-to-use-world-energy-flows/
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Climate Change is Driving Impoverished Californians to use “Predatory” Payday Loans to Pay Energy Bills
Guillermina Molina, a 60-year-old retired housekeeper, visits the same Speedy Cash each month. During the summer months – which are becoming increasingly hot – she runs her air conditioner but frets about her utility bills. “It’s kind of hard because the [power bill] is coming up too high because you gotta have the air conditioner on,” Molina said.
During heatwaves, Molina’s daughter, Vanessa Vargas, checks in on her every day. “I don’t want to pull up to her house and find her [passed out] because of the heat,” she said.
Molina doesn’t have savings, so to cover her bills she takes out a $225 payday loan every month, paying $45 in interest on each loan. When she’s unable to pay back her loan on time, she’s charged extra. “There’s nothing left over,” Vargas said.
Molina’s financial struggles are common. According to the Pew Charitable Trusts, 12 million Americans take out payday loans each year, paying $9bn in fees. New research suggests climate change is driving up demand for these loans.
A study released earlier this year found that extreme temperature shocks – like heatwaves and cold snaps – are leading to surges in demand for payday loans in the US.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/15/predatory-loans-heatwaves-cold-snaps
Simple solution – renounce your citizenship, go to Mexico and come back via Texas. Everything is then free!
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How about idiot politicians and their crazy energy policies?
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“Molina doesn’t have savings, so to cover her bills she takes out a $225 payday loan every month, paying $45 in interest on each loan. When she’s unable to pay back her loan on time, she’s charged extra. “There’s nothing left over,” Vargas said.”
That’s why she’s broke, you’ll never get ahead paying 50% interest.
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‘Millions of Americans are retiring with no savings’: Study shows about 90% of low-income households have nothing stashed away for retirement.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-americans-retiring-no-savings-123000477.html
They will all have no choice but to do exactly what the government wants them to do, or no handouts.
The pension funds are gone, taking down the middle class.
Reset everything to zero(except the elites of course) takes the whole show down, unless you’re totally off the grid.
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It’s not just Murricans, OZ isn’t much better,.
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Why aren’t solar farms being built in the outback?
Cannot get approval from Aboriginal Land Councils?
https://stopthesethings.com/2024/04/22/farmers-uninsurable-risk-solar-factory-neighbours-face-total-financial-ruin/
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Here’s the only proof we need to prove that increases in Human co2 emissions since 1950 have delivered the highest life expectancy, the most wealth and health, the SAFEST period and fewest deaths from extreme weather events and global population has increased by over 5.5 billion in the last 74 years etc.
Just 5.96 billion Ts of Human co2 emissions in 1950 and life expectancy about 46 years.
But over 37 billion Ts of co2 emissions in 2022 and life expectancy over 71 years.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL
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Weekend Australian April 6-7, 2024
“Mr Dutton confirmed that under the Coalition’s net-zero energy plan, to be released before the May budget, cheaper electricity bills would be offered to those communities that took up nuclear when coal fired power stations were retired. The plan will involve the creation of new precincts for advanced manufacturing based on cheap energy from small nuclear reactors.
Mr Dutton met privately last week with executives from nuclear power plant manufacturer Rolls Royce and its Australian partner Penske over the pursuit of low cost small modular reactors technology for Australia.
It is understood that Rolls Royce is confident that its small modular reactor technology could be ready for the Australian market by the early to mid-2030s with a price tag of $5 billion for a 470MW plant. Each plant would take four years to build and have a life span of 60 years.
Rolls Royce will also build the nuclear reactors for the second tranche of the future AUKUS nuclear powered naval submarines under contracts signed in February 2024 with the Albanese Government.”
… I add that Rolls Royce have supplied the Royal Navy nuclear submarine fleet SMRs and maintain them.
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I understand that the Coalition’s plan also includes where practical to do replacement of coal fired boiler technology with nuclear reactor based technology at existing power stations.
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My first job in England was working for RR as a student Mechanical Engineer. They are top notch.
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The whole system (AEMO) just got needlessly complicated. Maybe by design, so the smart end of town could just exploit it. Meanwhile, us suckers just keep paying higher energy bills for the same product that was delivered 20 years ago. Basically for some virtual signalling in solving a fantasy, mythical crisis which hasn’t eventuated for 30 years and is never likely to. Like some silly dog chasing its own tail.
Introduce renewables into the grid-
->Energy prices go up
->increase solar household adoption rate
->Energy prices go up
-> Increase wind generation
-> Energy prices go up
-> Adopt even more solar and wind
-> Energy prices go up
-> Tailor big marketing programs from energy companies to target even more solar/wind
-> Energy prices go up.
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Lighting Your Fireplace will Be a $500 Fine for CO2 Police
In South Gloucestershire, England, the City Council has approved the introduction of financial penalties in the district’s smoke control area. In the name of improving air quality, lighting a fire releases harmful pollution by burning wood, which can cause health problemGrs. You will be fined £300 pounds for harming the environment.
Between the abuse of the rule of law as they try to prevent Trump from even surviving with more than two cents to his name, tearing down the rule of law to accomplish this goal means that the other side will now have a precedent, and this is the DEFINITIVE destruction of society and civilization. Throw in this climate change, where they intend more lockdowns and want to destroy our freedoms and livelihoods further; I can now see clearly why the computer is forecasting the end of civilization as we know it by 2032.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/light-your-fireplace-will-be-a-500-fine-for-co2-police/
Retire NOW and enjoy what’s left while you can. I did.
I walk the walk.😎
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I note that the Three Musketeers are absent from the debate. Too hard for them?
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“And Florence the tunnel borer is stuck in the tunnel.”
So sad and that reminds me of Florence from the Magic Roundabout =
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGaoZuBlItk
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Oh Noses! ( cold & wet) what was the dog called?
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Crikey, just getting me triggered today….. the cheapest resources making the most expensive products, … and then still can’t compete on the world market. The CITY has a lot to answer for: to the Taxman: Gordon Broon did it a few years ago, there is talk now already of ( forgotten his name already – the tall labour guy) and his (female equiv. of henchman ?) wifie are going to raid the Pension funds again ( here in UK) but it is all an indirect tax on the working man. PER CENT, PER CENT, PER CENT, PER CENT, PER CENT, PER CENT, PER CENT, PER CENT, is all we ever hear about. No wonder everything is spiralling out of control and the “clever” (sarc) idiots still don’t get it.
Time for basic arithmetic ( whazzat again? – BASIC PRIMARY SKOOL “SUMS” Addin & Take-aways )
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If it’s cheaper, then explain to me that right now (24/4, 17:50) according to the AEMO site. SA, our renewable poster child, is running on 85% wind, 8% gas and 6% battery, then why is their current spot price $95.30? If renewables, i.e wind in this case, is so cheap shouldn’t that value be in the negative? They are producing more renewable power than needed to meet their demand, so it should be cheaper, consumer demands not high and they have a surplus of power. This whole thing makes no sense.
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The spot price is determined by the highest cost marginal producer. That would be the gas producer as wind and battery are unable to generate additional units.
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Simon, the wind and solar farms need storage, back up and long extra transmission lines, plus FCAS. I’m all for a free market, but lets make the unreliable-gen companies pay for Snowy 2.0, Humelink, the batteries, the fires, VNI, Marinarus, etc et al. Then lets see what the realistic levelized cost is…
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The correct way to do such an analysis is a levelised cost of electricity by source. These analyses show that renewables are no more expensive than coal and gas. Global electricity price increases have been driven mostly by the war in Ukraine. European power prices have decreased as the proportion of renewables have increased.
https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/europe-power-prices/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
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Nobody with any sense would buy what you are trying to sell. You cannot overcome the inherently intermittent nature of the energy source, nor its diffuse nature. You cannot overcome the environmental cost of manufacturing the things. You cannot overcome their inherent fragility (A hailstorm recently destroyed a brand-new $350 M facility in my state.) You cannot overcome their limited lifespans. You cannot overcome the cost of storage, nor of decommissioning these things. You cannot overcome the enormous land use commitments these things require. You cannot overcome the need for thousands of miles of new wiring and expensive towers to carry it. To create a system that would deliver 99.9% uptime power suitable for advanced 24/7 societies with hospitals and airports and police stations and traffic lights and refrigeration, using renewables alone would be insanely, la-la land expensive, because it would have to be so severely over-engineered against worst-case situations. It would be a Rube Goldberg, clattering, cobbled-together mess that would require constant tinkering, and would always be one hurricane or tornado or hailstorm away from ruin. If you can’t make it work in Oz, a large, mostly empty, sun-scorched, windswept place, you cannot make it work anywhere.
Get a grip already. Wind and solar are supplemental, fair-weather energy at best. That, my friend, is the reality. You’d have to be a bloody fool to base your civilization on them.
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Nicely put.
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I don’t live in Europe anymore (not since Brexit because I live in England), but can you explain to me why the UK, which imported only 4% or our domestic energy requirements from anything Russian related, is right up at the top of Jo’s energy price chart? While we are also right at the top of the implementation of renewables? The sums do not add up.
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The bundling together of the EU27 hides what a mess Germany is in and if they were separated out Germany would be right up there with us on both counts. The more useless windmills you have the more gas generation and imported energy are relied upon to stop the grid from crashing. Germany made things worse by closing perfectly good nuclear generation and now imports nuclear energy from France so they now have an energy account deficit. Adding another customer for French generation has most likely made our imports more expensive as the UK dumps excess energy when the price is low and imports when it is high. It was the increase in demand for gas as the world woke from Covid that sent energy costs rocketing in the UK and not the West’s war against Russia. UK prices have come down and will do so again in July but they won’t go back to where they were all the time unreliable generation gets big subsidies and the cost of managing the grid increases. In the coming years as coal plants are closed – and probably blown up while still warm – and ageing gas plant close, the UK will be ever more reliant on importing electricity to prop up the grid or resort to selective blackouts as nobody is willing to finance new gas generation in the political climate. Germany has put itself in the same situation with the gas plants it wants.
Germany is haemorrhaging industrial production at a rapid rate due to electricity costs which reduces tax income just as the government is increasing spending. Unemployment will be rising as the knock on effect of the job losses spreads out into an economy that in March recorded the highest number of insolvencies on record. The UK stopped mass production years ago and is restricted to mainly high value equipment. Our exports have risen recently but a massive part of that is due to the service sector.
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The “Correct Way” is to include the entirety of system costs associated with any source of generation.
If that is done, then the intermittent suppliers (wind/solar) cost 40 times as much as dispatchable thermal generation.
“LFSCOE for intermittent renewables up to almost 40 times higher than the LCOE.”
“Highlights:
Levelized Costs of Electricity ignore the cost of intermittency of renewables.
Including storage to balance them increases the costs of variable renewables.
Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity include the cost of balancing.
Combining wind and solar with a firm resource reduces costs significantly.”
Levelized Full System Costs of Electricity
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544222018035
and persistent link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124905
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[…] From JoNova […]
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